Denk's Derby Index

1. Itsmyluckyday: He's run two very fast races in a row, and I love the way he gradually doles out his energy. Just enough quality in the family tree for me to believe. He's my market leader for now.

2. Verrazano: Pure brilliance. On some level he reminds me of Quality Road or Curlin, both of whom delivered huge performances at GP early in their three-year-old seasons.

3. Overanalyze: Has a perfect 2yo foundation, and I love the way he re-rallied to win a fairly fast edition of the Remsen.

4. Violence: Has plenty of upside off a nice 2yo campaign, pedigree.

5. Revolutionary: Followed up a fast maiden win by overcoming traffic to win the Withers.

6. Shanghai Bobby: Champ could move forward off his 3yo debut.

7. Flashback: Full sibling to G1 winner Zazu remained perfect with ridiculously easy win in 4-horse Lewis S.

8. Normandy Invasion: Two Tapits on my Derby list?! We're just starting to see what he can do with good mares.

9. Delhomme: Understand why some doubt this freewheeler going 10f, but he was a fast 2yo who moved forward in every start.

10. Tiz the Truth: Love his trip progression, and note that final quarter in :23-2 in his maiden win.

11. Dynamic Sky: Still a work in progress mentally, he has a good 2yo foundation and a sneaky good pedigree for 10f.

12. Noble Tune: Absolutely love what this colt showed at age two. Hope they give him a legit shot on dirt.

13. Oxbow: Another nice pedigree, and he looks like he can wheel off 24-second quarters all day.

14. Capo Bastone: Has potential, but must prove he can finish strongly going two turns. 

15. Goldencents: He's fast, and he opened some eyes by rating in the Sham S.

16. Super Ninety Nine: Nice route debut for talented horse.

17. Forty Tales: Thought he was much the best in the Hutcheson. Might be a 7f horse, but worth a shot at two turns.

18. Treasury Bill: Really like the distance focus he showed in his impressive maiden win. Should like stretching out.

19. Purple Egg: Love his dynamic, but he missed a month of training because of sickness.

20. Demonic: Nice debut win, but for some reason he seems speed oriented to me. Will need to be a very fast learner. 


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Pete Denk

Apologies to my regular blog readers for the outage last week. My laptop went bad Friday night, and I spent all weekend trying to fix it and recover data.

04 Feb 2013 10:08 PM


Below are the most recent 3

year old lists from Mike Watchmaker and John Asher,that I found, both these lists contain both the 3 y.o. males and 3 y.o. fillies.

Mike Watchmaker Lists.

3-Year-Old Males.

1 – Violence

Finished 2012 strongly, best yet to come

2 – Itsmyluckyday

Holy Bull winner is a runnin' fool

3 – Shanghai Bobby

Think champ can be a top-notch miler

4 – Verrazano (new)

Who here has more raw ability than him?

5- Flashback (new)

8- Goldencents (6)

6- Overanalyze (4)

9- Power Broker (7)

7- Normandy Invasion (5)

10- Revolutionary

3-Year-Old Females.

– Beholder

Champ used her mulligan in Santa Ynez

2 – Executiveprivlege

Will overlook her Starlet flop, for now

3 – Kauai Katie

She is a special filly at sprint distance

4 – Dreaming of Julia

Had no shot in Br. Cup, capable of better

5- Unlimited Budget

8- Sign

6- Pure Fun

9- Princess of Sylmar

7- Emollient

10- My Happy Face

John Asher's Lists.

1.Shanghai Bobby










1.Pure Fun

2.Dreaming of Julia



5.So Many Ways


7.Tough Magic

8.Gal About Town

9.Seaneen Girl

10.Blonde Fog

These are 2 of the 3 people to put horses on the K.D. future picks, couldn't find any picks from Brad Free at this time.

Derby Pool 1 February 8 - 10.

This might give you some of the horses that may be on Pool 1.

05 Feb 2013 12:56 AM
Don from PA/DE

Thanks Pete, regarding #2 VZ totally agree, I will add that his GSP reminded me very much of Gemologist's win there last March close times in hand, hope this guy can stay healthy unlike similiar connections with Gem last year

05 Feb 2013 11:02 AM
Pedigree Ann

"2.[!] Verrazano: Pure brilliance. On some level he reminds me of Quality Road or Curlin, both of whom delivered huge performances at GP early in their three-year-old seasons."

Reminds you of two non-Derby-winners, huh? Brilliance at GP doesn't always translate to brilliance elsewhere, so I'll wait and see.

Also will wait and see with Revolutionary. Has blossomed on the Inner, from which form does not always translate to main dirt tracks.

Horse being overlooked: Den's Legacy. Had no shot in Flashback's paid workout, just keeps coming. Has a real foundation - 10 starts already, reminds me of Alysheba or Giacomo - lots of stakes placings but no stakes wins until they went longer, later in the spring, with an actual pace in front.

05 Feb 2013 11:08 AM
Pete Denk

Pedigree Ann-

Absolutely- Verrazano reminds me of two brilliant, non-Derby winners.

05 Feb 2013 11:30 AM
Plod Boy Phil


I read a post that indicated you had a very 'Smart' weekend.

Please tell us about it.


05 Feb 2013 11:47 AM
Pete Denk

Hey Plod-

I had a couple winners at Santa Anita, but I didn't light the world on fire.

Gave out Magnificent Shirl, who ran very well again, in the Friday chat.

Will do a Locksmith recap.

05 Feb 2013 12:25 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Ok - the post was on one of Steve's blogs,  so it was either mistaken or I misread.

Idid catch the end of the Friday chat and did watch Shirl dance away in a fair for all race.  

I did disagree with one of you hosts regarding what he called a 'major speed bias' on 1/13 at AQ - it was very, very modest at best.

05 Feb 2013 1:26 PM
Mary Zinke

Pete, no blog on my most brag-worthy weekend in quite a while :) ?

I like speed such as Verrazano has. Have to see him against ones that have a shot, though.

Distinctiv Passion out in Ca. is one that might "steal" a few preps. Not sure how far he'll go, though.  

About the Withers, I've seen comments that it was so slow. 1:44+ isn't that good, but if you like Revolutionary, what about(my pick in that race) Escapefromreality? I thought he ran well for his first route. Is Revolutionary going to Florida? Always loved the NY preps--hope they get good fields.

I also liked the performances by the first three in the Davis, as long as the drifting by Falling Sky and Dynamic Sky wasn't a sign of anything physically wrong.

The Lewis was a display of laziness by He's Had Enough, no rest since July for Den's Legacy, and too easy for Flashback.    

Did any of the Smarty Jones first three make your list?  Or are those just likeable, but not Derby contenders?  There are feel-good stories every year, and Texas Bling is one of them. Striking looking, and I wish him well in the Oaklawn series. Not really on a Derby list of mine,at this point.

What about Fury, that has a small setback, since you included the fevered Egg? Fury appears in Violence's winning photo while the other duelers faded in the Cash Call.

05 Feb 2013 3:15 PM

Plop Boy Phil -

It seems to me that your definition of "Flow" is what everyone else refers to as "Pace".

I anticipate that you will go onto insult my intelligence and say that I have no understanding of your quantitative measurements.

I seem to distrust your opinions of a biased racetrack because your quantitative measurements do not seem to account for many other important details that could have a profound effect on whether or not a track was biased, such as path.

I am not referring to the analysis of Aqu on 1/13/13, but rather in general.

Also, your previous comments about SA not being being biased over the BC has stuck with me. Ever since then, I cannot take your comments about track bias seriously.  SA over the BC was one of the most biased tracks I have ever seen.

I used the opinion that SA was extremely biased to cash on Trinniberg and Fort Larned, as you just had to pick who was going to have the early lead and an inside path.

05 Feb 2013 3:36 PM

Pedigree Ann,

Den's Legacy looks like a plodder at this point, lacking the turn of foot to score in a race like the Derby. However the Giacomo likeness doesn't seem farfetched this year since most of the ones that are impressing so far appear stamina deficient on pedigree. What might further hurt Den's Legacy's chances is the negative impact of the points system on the pace scenario (assuming he scores enough points to make the field) ...remember that Giacomo's Derby had a blistering pace to burn all the stamina deficient horses in that hotly contested Derby field.  

05 Feb 2013 4:33 PM


We share the same top four but in different order. I'll keep the order Overanalyze, Violence and Itsmtluckyday as the top three until one of them appear on the track.

Oxbow belongs in the top ten. D Wayne Lukas is going to have him as fit as a fiddle for the big dance. Noble Tune appears a doubtful Derby candidate, being pointed to the Bluegrass. Did you not see Transparent (best of the Bernardinis IMO)? He reminded me of I Want Revenge and looked every bit as impressive as Revolutionary.  I agree that Forty Tales is one to keep an eye on. Good list overall.  

05 Feb 2013 4:49 PM

Pete, thanks for Magnificent Shirl, I used her because of your picking her, wasn't leaning that way till you opened my eyes, nice pick.

I was also impressed by Verrazano and Tiz the Truth. I do't know if Gary has stopped smiling yet. Liked the way TtT moved, reminding me a great, great deal of his sire, pure brilliance. I would expect TtT to just get better with age, which is kind of scary good I would think.

This crop of three year olds is beginning to look really good, and if I was to pick a Derby winner at this point, which is way to early, but still, I am thinking Oxbow or


05 Feb 2013 5:32 PM


I came up with this.

Based on their races to date at a mile or longer, which horse of the following 4 has put up the best performance? Violence, Itsmyluckyday, Shanghai Bobby or Verrazano?

In my system of handicapping, this is how it turns out. Below I add the DRF Speed Fig to the Track Variant. These are the results on a dry dirt track, with the weights carried shown in brackets:

Violence (116) 93+10=103

Itsmyluckyday (120) 102+8=110


Shanghai Bobby (122) 100+8=108



Verrazano (118) 94+17=111

As Itsmyluckyday beat Shanghai Bobby by 2 lengths going away, he gets the edge over Shanghai Bobby.

Next is Verrazano. Violence is fourth best to date. However, Violence has not yet run as a 3yo.

05 Feb 2013 9:13 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Keymaster -

Flow is not just about pace. We do not measure absolute speed,  which is what pace figures (plural) do.  We measure relative speed, thus, 1st quarters of 22 flat and 23 flat may have the same Flow figure (singular) depending on what happens in the following portions of the race.

I will not insult your intelligence, however, it is clear you do not understand our quantitative measures. You apparently fail to understand or acknowledge how race flow and the expected amount of closing based on those race Flows work togther over an entire card to establish Bias figures.

As for Trinni and Fort L, you are using results to 'prove' you are opinion, which is a flawed methodology.  A good result does not make an opinion correct.

Can you answer any of the following questions:

Was the 'rail' the same the enire way around the track? How did the rail differ from the two path or the three path?  How far apart are those paths ?  At what path did the track change ?  Were the horses that 'benefitted' from the rail on the rail all the way, or did they spend some time in the two or three path ?  

Out of curiosity, how would you compare the main tracks at SA on 1/1/13, 2/1/13, and 10/21/12 to that of BC Saturday ?

05 Feb 2013 9:50 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Ranagulzion -

One thing to remember about Giacomo was that he had exited two consecutive Extreme Races for Speed and found himself in an Extreme Race for Closers in the Derby.  His finishing ability in the two final prep races were masked by the impossible scenarios he faced.  When the dynamics changed in his favor, the closing punch had much more impact.  Of course, he never again found himself in such a favorable Flow.

05 Feb 2013 9:54 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Jersey Boy -

You use two variants in your calculation?  There is already a variant built into the Beyer SF (DRF)

05 Feb 2013 10:15 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Jersey Boy -

My fault - saw what I wanted to see w/out processing what you wrote.


05 Feb 2013 10:50 PM

Plod Boy Phil

I do not know what you are referring to. I used a single variant. It is taken from the DRF. It is the second number of each pair.

I do not use Beyer speed figures. Beyer has said himself that his figures are not science. I use science.

06 Feb 2013 8:32 AM


Tiz The Truth as the 1-2 favorite recorded fractions of 24.30, 48.39, 1:12.80 ,1:24.41, 1:36.28 while beating a weak field and his performance is good enough to crack  Mr. Haskin’s Derby Dozen and your top 20.

Curly Top the 9-2 third choice tracked the 3-5 favorite Footbridge in fractions of 22.83, 46.81, 1:11.25, 1:23.23, 1:36.23 while beating a much stronger field and his performance though better than that of Tiz The Truth he cannot make either the Dozen or top 20. What am I missing?  Curly Top has never been unplaced in his three starts and Tiz The Truth has been off the board in one of his three. If Curly Top’s better PP and better maiden victory does not trump that of Tiz The Truth, then what does?

06 Feb 2013 8:37 AM


Forty Tales

“I thought he was much the best in the Hutcheson. Might be a 7f horse, but worth a shot at two turns.”

He closed willingly and that makes him the best?  Would you regard Major Affair as being the best in his debut race?  He closed willingly from 20L out and actually finished ahead of your #10 ranked colt Tiz The Truth.  

06 Feb 2013 8:49 AM


Noble Tune, Capo Bastone, Treasury Bill are the only colts from the powerful Mr. Prospector sire line in your top 20. Are they the only ones that have impressed? What about Curly Top, Footbridge, Omega  Star, Fortify, Cerro, Elnaawi and Elmutahid?

Of the 369 horses nominated for the 2013 TC approximately 131 are from the Mr. Prospector sire line.  Your top 20 contains the least from the most.  It is advisable that you eliminate some of your marginal selections and add horses from this line as it has dominated the TC over the last 15 years. Just a suggestion.

06 Feb 2013 9:08 AM
Plod Boy Phil


re: Hutcheson

I agree with you. The race was 'neutral', or fair for all. The winner was best.

06 Feb 2013 9:38 AM
Pete Denk

Coldfacts, Plod-

It is not just that Forty Tales closed willingly. You need to factor in the the trip he got from the rail. I am sure Johnny V would have loved to put him in the race earlier, but he never saw the opportunity.

Coldfacts- As for your suggested Mr P list, only Fortify was close to making my top 20, but I bumped him since he is in Dubai. That path swallows up Derby contenders.

I do think Fortify has potential to improve at age three.

06 Feb 2013 9:43 AM

El Kabong

“my big concern for him is his running style, and breeding for the distance.”

The concerns expressed above have captured my curiosity.

Itsmyluckyday tracks fast fractions easily and then accelerates. He has a similar running style to that of Big Brown. His sire Lawyer Ron is a son of Langfuhr who was sired by Danzig. Big Brown was sire by Boundary a son of Danzig. Between 1986 and 2008 there have been four Derby winners from the Northern Dancer sire line and two have been via Danzig stallions.

Itsmyluckyday’s dam sire Donraille Court is a son of Seattle Slew. Two sons of the only undefeated Triple Crown winner have been broodmare sires of Derby winners i.e., Funny Cide and Super Saver.

What exactly has fueled your concerns?

06 Feb 2013 10:19 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Pete -

Fine,  but 'much the best' is a bot overstated.  Do you factor in the energy saved while being sucked along on the rail ? Perhaps, if he gets involved earlier, the finish is less impressive.

06 Feb 2013 10:48 AM


Do you seriously believe that Tiz the Truth is better than Footbridge and Curly Top? Just compare the quality of the fields they have competed against and the colt facts will be obvious.

Footbridge got be beat in his 6 1/2F debut in 1:14 and a bit with a bad trip. He was the only colt that closed in the race.  Tiz the Truth was unplaced in his debut effort. Curly Top finished second to a colt that finished 3rd in the Sham Stakes and beat the highly regarded Footbridge to break his maiden.  I realize Footbridge is still a maiden but Curly Top was more impressive in his maiden victory. Was there a colt as highly regarded as Footbridge in the field Tiz the Truth faced?

He steamrolls a weak group of colts and he is now a contender. Substitute Tiz the Truth with either Footbridge or. Curly Top and the result would be ever more impressive.

The cold facts do not lie!

06 Feb 2013 11:21 AM

Mary Zinke,

“Did any of the Smarty Jones first three make your list?”

Interesting question! Are you aware that Will Take Charge and Texas Bling were both sired by stallions that are grandsons of the influential Fappiano  i. e., Unbridled’s Song and Too Much Bling.

The fact that Will Take Charge is a half-brother of the 2012 Florida Derby winner Take Charge Indy he should at least be an interesting colt. His sire Unbridled’s Song was sire of Derby runner up Eight Bells.

Texas Bling appears to be tough little guy that get no respect. After lighting up the board in the Remington Springboard Mile at 99-1 as a 2YO, he was sent from the gates in the Smarty Jones at 18-1. His dam was lightly raced and earned only $4200 from her 4 starts. She belongs to a category of mares that have an affinity with champions. His dam sire, the rarely seen Country Pine is son of His Majesty sire of Derby winner Pleasant Colony and dam sire of Preakness and Belmont winner Risen Star.

Any horse from the Mr. Prospector sire line that shows ability should not be ignored and are always dangerous in the Derby.

06 Feb 2013 11:22 AM
Pete Denk


You are the president of the Footbridge fan club.

I liked his debut, but didn't love the subsequent two-turn effort. He needs to dial it down early and finish stronger.

So yes, I like Tiz the Truth much better than Footbridge.

06 Feb 2013 11:39 AM


It is not the field that Tiz the Truth beat that made his performance so spectacular.  It was that he ran his race faster than Flashback, closed his final 1/4 in 23.2 without being pushed or whipped.  He ran his own race the entire way around the track and finished in 1:35 and change.  

I will take Tiz the Truth to the bank all season long!

06 Feb 2013 11:47 AM


24.30,48.39,1:12.80 can be done by any claimer. Footbridge went 22.83, 46.81, 1:11.25 on his own as well. In his first race the fractions were 22,44,1:08 and he closed for a 3rd place finish. How far behind would  Tiz the Truth be in such a race with his splits? When a good horse is allowed to set pedestrian fractions it will come home fast. Do no be deceived.

06 Feb 2013 12:14 PM
KY VET top 10 are ALL on your list....not worried about your top pick itsmyluckyday, or oxbow,,,,,in no order my top 10....demonic,forty tales,overanylze,normandy invasion,treasury bill,violence,verrazzano,delhomme,shanghi bobby,tizthetruth.....thinking of a couple to bet........original plan was to bet all others, but starting to like a couple.......

06 Feb 2013 3:53 PM

Pedigree Ann : I'm glad I'm not the only one that doesn't jump up and down at horses that wins at GP.  It always reminds me of Quality Road where some people were calling him the "beast", a "monster", because of his races at GP, when he ran at other tracks, he was just a good horse IMO.

Pete : Really surprised that you have Delhomme at #9, I haven't checked but I thought the most notable horse he's beaten so far is Long River who I don't think will make the Derby.  You have him higher than Oxbow, Dynamic Sky and Goldenscents ?  Now you're making me take a look at him hehe.

I'm not jumping on the Verrazano, Flashback, Revolutionary or Tiz The Truth wagon just yet, going to wait to see how they do in their next races.

Here's my dozen :

- Uncaptured

- Violence

- Overanalyze

- Mylute

- Amerigo Vespucci

- Itsmyluckyday

- Shanghai Bobby

- Bern Identity

- Tesseron

- Ground Transport

- Belvin

- Palace Malice

06 Feb 2013 5:15 PM

What the heck is SUCKED ALONG ON THE RAIL? there a wind tunnel? Look, you have pace flow on the brain! The horse closed with was nice move.....he barely lost....what you people say, about horses is put down horses that are close to the pace because they run over 100 beyers, like its easy to do....HERES A TIP! FAST HORSES HAVE SPEED!......most horses close from far back, for a reason, most of them bad......The more this BLOD BOY posts.....the more he shows his ignorance!!!!!!!

06 Feb 2013 7:47 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Pete -

How's the recap coming along?

06 Feb 2013 8:57 PM
Plod Boy Phil


Don't use up all your flares before the next wave of ships pass by.

06 Feb 2013 9:00 PM
Pete Denk

Just finished a fantasy draft (15-team league of turf writers, includes Privman, Watchmaker, DeRosa, Asher, Gary West, Dick Downey, Jude Feld, Jeremy Plonk, etc...)

My team: Overanalyze, Crop Report, Noble Tune, Big Lute, Manando, Purple Egg, Edge of Reality, Rydilluc, Archer Hill, Elvis Trujillo. I picked 8th of 15, wraparound.

What do u guys think?

Was pretty much just taking best available horse.

06 Feb 2013 9:01 PM
Pete Denk

Sorry for the delay on the Locksmith review, been a crazy week with my computer's death. Got my new Lenovo laptop up and running now. Will post the review hopefully tomorrow.

Working on an emotional conformation profile of a race filly tonight.

06 Feb 2013 9:03 PM
Plod Boy Phil


re: Fast horses have speed

Did you learn nothing from Bellamy Road's Wood ?

Big figures earned under perfect circumstances are always suspect.

06 Feb 2013 9:12 PM

PLOD.....i dont expect a "beginner" to know everything i do.....point being, great horses have speed, they usually show it when young, we teach them to seem to put down all these good performances, like anyone can do what they are doing...if you go fast early, youre gonna come home are out of control, on your pace are apparently taking another shot at a great performance by a horse, this time bellamy dont seem to think he ran why didnt he? time? lengths ahead? He ran like a monster.....go ahead and put sinister minister, and cliffs edge in that group too huh? dont understand what i know, those super efforts had an adverse effect on those horses.............they were never the same after those think its because they were not any good.......i know otherwise............youll learn! dont worry.......

06 Feb 2013 10:45 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Or maybe, those efforts were achieved under perfect trip scenarios. Perhaps you need to open your blinkers up a bit. You see, your 'bounce' is often our 'downgrade'.  When more rigorous race scenarios develop,  it all comes apart. Certainly you can't expect me to take you seriously when you include Sinister Minister's Blue Grass on the old Keeneland ?

You see, VET,  I spent years studying final time based figures.  Now, I hope my horses are too slow. Betting 'fast' horses lead to your short priced picks.

06 Feb 2013 11:23 PM
Mike Relva


Regarding Oxbow don't you mean Lukas will have him fit if he doesn't break him down? How many horses do you think he ruined over his career? Do we ignore and look the other way? No respect for him in my book.

07 Feb 2013 12:27 PM


I don't need to know about the fractions of a sprint race.  We are talking about horses who can stretch their speed over 10 Furlongs.  Look at the pedigree behind Tiz The Truth and tell me he wouldn't be able to click off 12's all day long.  

We will have to wait until we see a suicide rabbit in front of him to find out how he reacts, but having Gary Stevens on his back, I think he will manage just fine!

07 Feb 2013 1:36 PM

Things to like about TtT that are important beyond who he faced. One, Gary Stevens knows a thing or two about great horses(I hope all would agree with his experience), and this is a horse he wants to ride. Two, he easily defeated a MSW field but did it faster than Flashback(who is an incredible looking horse )on the same track the same day. Three, he runs with a truly brilliant looking stride that reminds one of the only two time BC Classic winner, Tiznow, his sire. It remains to be seen how he will handle a better field and a longer distance, but the signs are there that he is special and will improve(as most Tiznow's seem to get better with maturity), so for now he is one that deserves alot of attention, and if the odds are right, I will be picking him in his next races.

07 Feb 2013 3:11 PM

Pete, who was the first pick in the draft?

07 Feb 2013 7:38 PM
Plod Boy Phil


Stride and stamina are subject to change under stressful situations. Clicking off '12's all day long' ?  Very heady stuff, that.

As for 'a truly brilliant stride' that reminds you of his sire,  would you have been capable of such a comparison if you saw him run without knowing his breeding?

07 Feb 2013 8:04 PM

Furthermore, regarding TtT, don't compare his first race loss like he was prepared to win his first race, in my opinion he wasn't, he was running for experience only, in his next race he shows up with 3 bullets in his holster, then and only then was he showing up to win, and win he did.

One more thing, I don't think Gary would have come back to racing just to ride another Derby winner, but to ride a Triple Crown winner that is another thing. Gary has been haunted about not winning the Triple Crown, so he has some unfinished business to take care of, and that is why he came back to racing, IMHO. So when TtT was identified as being something special, I'd bet he checked him out and made the decision with the idea that this horse will give him that chance.

07 Feb 2013 8:07 PM
Pete Denk


Verrazano went first overall in the Triple Crown Fantasy League.

07 Feb 2013 8:24 PM
Plod Boy Phil

To be clear,  I have no ill will towards the animal, his connections or his fans.

Call it being the devil's advocate, the voice of reason,  or just Flow driven madness.

Good luck.

07 Feb 2013 8:34 PM

I would have to say I was more impressed by what Revolutionary did than either Verrazano or Tiz the Truth did.  At least we know Revolutionary can overcome some trouble and can close up the rail.  I have seen too many impressive maiden winners flop when the real running starts.  Give them a chance to meet stronger competition before crowning them Derby winners or TC winners.

07 Feb 2013 8:46 PM
Carlos in Cali


why do you feel Demonic is "speed oriented"?..

Sadler has stated he is his Derby horse, and I thought he rated off the pace in his debut(7f) beautifully. All the Bernardini's inherited his tactical speed..

07 Feb 2013 9:06 PM
Pete Denk


There is something about Demonic's pattern of motion that I can't put my finger on.

(It may be a good thing)

I'm going to ask Kerry Thomas to watch his debut race and see what he thinks of the horse's mind.

07 Feb 2013 10:03 PM
Pete Denk

Just to play devil's advocate on Revolutionary ... this is not a knock on him, just general advice.

Don't get too excited about visually impressive trip/trouble horses if the race comes back slow.

07 Feb 2013 10:06 PM


I have never claimed to be an expert, and I threw in the disclaimer that I am waiting to truly judge his mind and ability to rate if he is pitted against much faster fractions.  Having Stevens on his back will help him settle down, however he has the speed and pedigree to compete against the best this year's crop has to offer.  

Clicking off 12's is not a bad thing, especially if you are coming home in 23.2 without pressure or a whip.  Sub 1:48 would have been possible had he gone another furlong.  Doubt him if you like, but I was on the bandwagon on the very first race.

07 Feb 2013 10:06 PM
Plod Boy Phil

TJ -

Obviosuly, clicking off 12s is not a bad thing.....?

Secretariat clicked 12s in his 144 second Belmont romp - a record no horse has come close to since.


07 Feb 2013 10:18 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Pete -

I second that on Revolution.

Even Orb, the lone horse on my radar, has much to prove despite having two 'better than look' wins from Flowville.

07 Feb 2013 10:24 PM
KY VET mean the secretariat that had his own way, perfect trip, downgraded effort dont you?

07 Feb 2013 10:36 PM

Pete....i agree with all the love revolutionary is getting......race was slow.....AND, these people talk about him handling the trip so well........well, he really didnt....he was freaking out...leaping...almost hopping...shying away from tight quarters....yes, he won.....because he was much the best.....didnt really get to show everything......

07 Feb 2013 10:41 PM

Pete- all I was commenting about was the fact that Revolutionary did not have an easy trip, overcame it and showed that he was not afraid to go up the inside to win.  I would rather see a performance like that than an easy trip win.  I didn't say he was going to win the Derby or the TC.  I liked his ability to overcome.  It will serve him well.  He may not be fast enough, and if he isn't then he isn't.  I liked what he showed.  

07 Feb 2013 11:25 PM


“I don't need to know about the fractions of a sprint race.”

Why select the fractions from the debut race for Footbridge when I also provided the fractions from his 8F race as well? Tiz the Truth folded like a cheap suitcase in his debut over a sprint distance that was run in race horse pace. He was subjected to serious pace again in his second start and could not repel the challenge of Demonic.  He caught weak field, set pedestrian fractions and drew off and is being hailed as a serious Derby contender. What am I missing? He is a nice colt but if either Curley Top or Footbridge met that bunch they would dismiss them in a similar fashion.

Pete has not responded to my question and neither have you.

“Look at the pedigree behind Tiz The Truth and tell me he wouldn't be able to click off 12's all day long.“

On the subject of pedigree, Tiz The Truth’s pedigree is pale in comparison to that of Footbridge who has shown he is the faster of the two. Footbridge's sire and dam sire secured Time Form ratings of over 130 and both won at 10F. Dubai Millennium was the dam sire of the 2011 Dubai WC winner. What French Deputy's claim to fame? His second dam was sire by Deputy Minister who was dam sire of three Belmont winners.

Tiz The Truth does not deserve the hype.

07 Feb 2013 11:45 PM


“Don’t get too excited about visually impressive trip/trouble horses if the race comes back slow.”

Transparent did not make your twenty and I guess it’s because of an assessment similar to the one above. Do you believe Tiz The Truth maiden breaker was more impressive than that of Transparent?

07 Feb 2013 11:54 PM

Pete : You picked 8th and you still got Overanalyze ??  Is he that overrated?  I see him in pretty much every derby dozen lists, not that I trust all the writers you listed but I thought Overanalyze would've been picked higher than 8th.  I wonder if it's the Dixie Union pedigree...

07 Feb 2013 11:57 PM

KY VET- I'll take a "freaking out" horse who can overcome adversity and still win.  As I said.  he may not be fast enough, but he did what he had to do with a far less advantageous trip than Verrazano and Tiz the Truth had.  Easy trip wins are just as misleading.  And your Secretariat pot shot was sad but predictable.  

08 Feb 2013 12:11 AM
Pete Denk


Yeah I was surprised Overanalyze was there at 8. He was the obvious pick on my board. Think he's a Triple Crown player if he builds on the Remsen at all.

08 Feb 2013 12:12 AM
Plod Boy Phil


You're showing your ignorance.


08 Feb 2013 12:14 AM

BTW, if we are talking about fractions, once Revolutionary got clear he shaded 6 seconds for his final 16th, going inside while freaking out.  Maybe he went that fast because he was freaking out.

08 Feb 2013 12:18 AM

Oh- and he missed his final work before the race and hadn't worked in 13 days, probably because he was freaking out.  I think I will just refer to him as FOR from now on.

08 Feb 2013 12:22 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Since we have a neutral rating on the Withers,  the race is as it appeaars for all runners.  The final time reflects only on the strength of competition Revo faced.  As I posted on our site the next day,  he needs to get a while lot smarter about what the task at hand is before facing 19 others,  most of which will be much more talented than Saturday's field.  

08 Feb 2013 12:46 AM

FOR has his issues, to be sure.  But it is only February.  His dam won the Alabama.  His sire was a fast precocious horse who was injured either during or after the Wood.  He has enough stamina presence to give him a decent chance at a distance of ground.  I'll give him time.

08 Feb 2013 1:17 AM
Little Bill

Revo came home like a good horse should after saving ground like he did, but he was freaked. He was uncomfortable down on the rail then when JC put him in that hole the only way out is the other side. He might grow up and say I'm not going in that hole, who knows.

I think it was Jimmy Croll, of Bet Twice Belmont fame,when asked if 12f was his best distance replied "Sometimes when their young they'll do things they don't know they can't".

Revo's a nice horse and has every right to improve.  

08 Feb 2013 2:06 AM
Plod Boy Phil


For the sake of all here,  let's agree on two things:

1) You do not understand what Flow is, how it is derived, or how it plays a role in tabbing big priced winners

2) You are the PRO.  

Best of racing luck.

08 Feb 2013 9:14 AM

Do Flashback and Tiz The Truth deserve the hype after their respective Bob Lewis and MSW victories? If I answer the question with a resounding no, I will be crucified by the experts.  However, if some comparative cold facts are parented they will show just how average the performances of both colts were.


I’ll Have Another:  23.06, 46.77, 1:10.52, 1:34.52, 1:40.84

Flashback          24.17, 48.69, 1:12.17, 1:36.53, 1:42.95    


Bodemeister   23.09, 46.95, 1:10.72, 1:34.45  

Tiz The Truth 24.30, 48.39, 1:12.80, 1:36.28  

I’ll Have Another and Bodemeister were the top two colts that came out of CA in 2012. They were recording times that were two seconds faster than both Flashback and Tiz The Truth. I know I will be lectured on the meaningless of the above comparison. However, while I’ll Have Another and Bodemeister were racking up fast times the New York and Florida colts were not running as fast and got crushed in the Derby. The colts in Florida are now recording the faster times and that where the hype should be exclusively centered.

How can the performances of Flashback and Tiz The Truth create such excitement when they are by all indications very average by speed standard?

08 Feb 2013 9:55 AM
Rusty Weisner

Pete Denk,

Re: troubled trips v. time

I'm in agreement.  I used to assume a troubled trip always earned a horse an "upgrade" (hope I'm not violating copyright), but now I don't think so so much when it comes to dirt races.  I've learned a lot from a lot of perceptive commenters here who know how to watch races a lot better than me:  the troubles of Union Rags and Creative Cause come to mind from last year -- these horses had issues, or maybe their jockeys did, that put them at a disadvantage when there was no margin for error.

I take that back about "used to".  Here's a horse I made the same mistake on just last weekend.  I gave He's Had Enough excuses for a troubled trip in the BC Juv.  Well, somehow he or his jockey managed to find a troubled trip in a four-horse field in the Robert B. Lewis, as he went very wide on the first turn.

08 Feb 2013 10:23 AM
Rusty Weisner


I won't be crucifying you, but then again I'm not an expert.  After last year I am going into this season with a prejudice in favor of the California horses, so I welcome anything that makes question my assumptions.  This was a good post -- you forgot to mention that the MSW's were on the same track.

08 Feb 2013 10:29 AM
Rusty Weisner

Anybody handicapping the two Gulfstream stakes?

08 Feb 2013 10:30 AM

Then I guess my nickname will be appropriate.  To me a  freaked out horse becomes uncontrollable and does everything it can to get out of that situation.  I didn't see that.  I saw a horse who was uncomfortable but dealt with it.  I have seen freaked out horses in races.  They don't recover and they don't win.  But since more than one person said he freaked, I must be wrong.  I have always thought there was a difference between a horse freaking out and a horse who is uncomfortable.  I'll adjust my definition.

08 Feb 2013 10:45 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Rusty -

Please tell me you are not getting your trip notes from Trevor's race calls.....

08 Feb 2013 10:51 AM


It's obvious you know everything about horse racing, so I will stop challenging you.  

We will watch the season progress and really find out which horses will rise to the top.  

What I like about Tiz the Truth is that he is continually improving.  He took a giant leap forward in his second start losing by a head.  He then turned that into a solid win.  He was able to rate in the second race and just came up short.  Keep stretching this horse out and I am positive he will continue to improve.

BTW, comparing the times on two different days is silly enough... Comparing them over a year apart is crazy talk.  I am not putting him on par with IHA or Bode because he hasn't proven himself yet.  However to even attempt to compare times year over year is foolish.  

08 Feb 2013 10:54 AM
Karen in Texas

As several posts have pointed out, some of the "hype" directed at Tiz the Truth is due to Gary Stevens being (apparently) his new regular rider. Gary, himself, generates excitement; because of both his comeback and his personal history with the Triple Crown races. He has been first through third place in the Triple Crown series 21 times. I liked what I saw in TtT's MSW last week, and he is one I am watching, but I have only heard Baffert say that this colt has a bright future, not that he is pointed to the Derby yet. I have heard, though, that Gary has not stopped smiling since entering the winner's circle with him last Saturday....

08 Feb 2013 11:13 AM
Rusty Weisner


They meant he "freaked", not that he "freaked out".  

08 Feb 2013 11:32 AM
Rusty Weisner


It's funny:  I'll Have Another got an 84 Beyer for the RBL last year (thought those Beyer figures were supposedly really suspect for him all TC season).  Flashback got a 94?

08 Feb 2013 11:38 AM
Pedigree Ann

When all the fast horses who are used to setting the pace, whether slow or fast, get hooked up in the Derby and start wilting, watch out for the Giacomo types. Placed in mile-ish stakes with tepid or slow paces, keeps coming nonetheless. Sounds like Den's Legacy or Golden Soul at this point.

08 Feb 2013 11:48 AM

Some of the comments about trips and splits are interesting.

I have always believed that all that matters in a race is how fast a horse can run the entire distance. If they go fast early, they tend to go slow late, and vice versa. If a horse runs at an even pace, say 12 seconds a furlong for 10 furlongs, he will win some 10-furlong races by daylight.

If a horse has superior ability that horse will show it by winning races. I have never heard of a great maiden but what do I know.  I judge them by their performance because if they are talented they show it one way or the other.

Of course, there is always the big surprise every now and then.

Itsmyluckyday gets my money in Pool 1. He has run the fastest.

No one needs  a lamp to see that which is visible in broad daylight.

08 Feb 2013 12:49 PM


You will note that I pre-empted your response to the time comparison with the section of my post below:

“I know I will be lectured on the meaningless of the above comparison”

Your quote

“However, to even attempt to compare times year over year is foolish.”

have often wondered why the comparison of historic information is deemed either foolish or irrelevant. Why are times recorded if they are insignificant?

Secretariat set a WR in his Belmont victory and no other horse has gone close to his mark.  He has set the mark on which all other Belmont’s will be judged.  Did he just catch a fast Belmont track that day?

After watching I’ll Have Another and Bodemeister set 8F splits of 1:34 and a bit, how can anyone hype horses that record 48 en route to a mile in 1:36. The high water mark for CA is 1:34 anything less is average and does not deserve hype.

“He took a giant leap forward in his second start losing by a head.  He then turned that into a solid win. ”

I am in agreement that his win was solid and only that. His performance was not better than that of his stable mate Curly Top who beat a better field while chasing fractions that were 2 seconds faster. Curly Top did not make Pete’s Top 20 consequently the inclusion of Tiz The Truth cannot be justified on a performance basis.

Let me reiterate any good colt that is allowed to set pedestrian fractions against weak opposition will leave them for dead when asked. Transparent finished second to Revolutionary the recent winner of the Withers and the #5 ranked colt in Pete's Top 20. He came back to overcome interference, wide trips on both turns and won handily. Like Tiz The Truth he was the short priced favorite in the field. He did what was expected. Was he included he in Pete’s Top Twenty?  It appear the bar used to assess impressive pwrformances has been lowered.

08 Feb 2013 1:19 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Jersey Boy-

You do know that only two 3 yr olds have ever run the 10f of the  Derby in 120 seconds or less, right?

08 Feb 2013 1:30 PM

Plod Boy Phil,

Sham might have gone < 120 seconds.

08 Feb 2013 1:55 PM
Plod Boy Phil


Consider the source.  Suddenly there are two bloggers that have 12 second furlongs over 10f or further nothing more than a walk in the park.

Somewhere along the line, the stresses of environment, pace, field size and competition have been replaced with strides, fast final quarters after leisurely gallops, and margins of victory in glorified workouts.

08 Feb 2013 1:59 PM

Plod Boy Phil:


So what is your point? The world knows of Secretariat and Monarchos. But the Kentucky Derby is not the only 10-furlong race.Did you know that?

08 Feb 2013 2:51 PM
Rusty Weisner


I think you're on the money with these specific comparisons.  As I mentioned, it shows you how screwed up the Beyer figures were for these races last year.  IHA supposedly went 84-101-109 in the three races ending with the Derby.  109 might have been an accurate number; 84 wasn't -- according to "Beyer" Flashback earned a figure ten points higher than IHA despite a time slower by two seconds.

08 Feb 2013 3:26 PM

I wasnt putting down secretariat...i was saying plod boy would downgrade him, like so many great efforts....revolutionary was tons the best....he was shying big time......coldfacts' horse hasnt won a race, and cant understand why he isnt in the top 20.....and you people bet?...................thank you!

08 Feb 2013 4:21 PM

Who picks which horses gets to be included in the Future wager ?  And anyone here actually makes bets  (real money, not fake bets on blogs)  on KDFW ?

Coldfacts :   I don't use splits or final times to handicap, to me it's just information on what the horse is capable of but it's not guaranteed they can do it again.  If you use any comparison of times, you'd have to also look at how the tracks were playing the day of the races.  SA is notorious, as you know as being a speed track.    I also remember the same hype Bodemeister got after winning his maiden and some people were crowning him the derby winner.   He did very very well in the Derby so it's not that impossible that Tiz The Truth might doing the same this year.  Am I sold on Tiz The Truth ?  Nope, not yet, but I was very impressed with his run regardless of who he beat.  I'm going to guess that Tiz The Truth will be going the Arkansas Derby route and I think he can win that race going away if he continues to improve.

I think Baffert's horse for the SA Derby is Belvin, an Empire Maker horse who's going to make his 3 yr old debut in the 7F San Vicente next weekend.  He beat Footbridge by over 5 lengths in his maiden win.

08 Feb 2013 5:33 PM

travelin man.................

08 Feb 2013 11:21 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Jersey Boy-

My point is, what does the following mean?

"If a horse runs at an even pace, say 12 seconds a furlong for 10 furlongs, he will win some 10-furlong races by daylight."

That's a big 'if' considering the hundreds of horses that have run in the Derby with only two (or three as Coldfacts points out) actually doing it.

These are races, not just horses running around the track in a vacuum.

09 Feb 2013 11:43 AM
Plod Boy Phil


I'm looking at the Preakness PPs for IHA and I see the following Beyer figs:  

RBL - 96

SA Derby - 95

Derby - 101

09 Feb 2013 11:49 AM
Mary Zinke

I like Travelin Man in the GP Sprint, too, KY, if you meant he's your win pick. GP r9: 2,6,5,4.

GP r8: 2 Point Of Entry,6,4,1

GP r10: 3 Kya One,4,5,6

GP r11: 2 Flat Out,8,1,5

09 Feb 2013 12:36 PM
Plod Boy Phil


Had we been making figures in 1973, Secretariat would have earned a 'neutral' Grade from us in his Belmont romp. In other words,  the race was as it appeared on paper.

We now have figs for all Derbys and Belmonts since 1973.

09 Feb 2013 1:40 PM
Mary Zinke

Non-chalk picks today are I Am Miss Brown(I just like her)in the Martha Washington, and All Squared Away in the San Marcos, since the chalky ones are inconsistent.

09 Feb 2013 5:16 PM


“His performance was not better than that of his stable mate Curly Top who beat a better field while chasing fractions that were 2 seconds faster. Curly Top did not make Pete’s Top 20 consequently the inclusion of Tiz The Truth cannot be justified on a performance basis”

“Curly Top finished second to a colt that finished 3rd in the Sham Stakes and beat the highly regarded Footbridge to break his maiden.  I realize Footbridge is still a maiden but Curly Top was more impressive in his maiden victory. Was there a colt as highly regarded as Footbridge in the field Tiz the Truth faced?”

The above extracts from two of my post indicate that I was making a case for Curley’s Top’s inclusion and not Footbridge. Clearly you are challenged with understanding when a horse is referenced and when a case is being made for its inclusion. You are allowed to posts questions if you are confused.

10 Feb 2013 7:16 AM


“I also remember the same hype Bodemeister got after winning his maiden and some people were crowning him the derby winner.  He did very very well in the Derby so it's not that impossible that Tiz The Truth might doing the same this year”

I recall the hype over Bodster as well. However, 1:34 and a bit merits hype but 1:36 does not. Bodemeister was not off the board in his debut effort but Tiz The Truth was. If Verrazano had recorded a time of 1:36, would he currently occupy either the #1 or #2 spot on most Derby list? There are nice performances and there are exceptional performances.  There was nothing exceptional about a colt destroying a group of overmatched opponents in an average time.  I am not knocking Tiz The Truth as I have stated he is a nice colt. He can return and deliver a performance worthy of hype but his maiden victory was average by the standards set in 2012 by Bodemeister, Paynter and Fed Biz.

Curley Top finished 2nd in his first two starts that were at a 1 1/6m. He returned to break his maiden at a mile defeating a much stronger field than Tiz The Truth.

Tiz The Truth lost at 6F and 7F before breaking his maiden at a mile. One of the horses that defeated Curley Top got 3L beat in a Gll Stakes race. Who has more foundation and has faced the better competition? If we  are seriously focusing on the Derby then the answer is overwhelming obvious.

10 Feb 2013 7:42 AM

The following colts were more impressive in their maiden breakers' than Tiz The Truth; Treasury Bill, Omega Star and Demonic.  Footbridge and Major Affair are still maidens but I predict they will whip Tiz The Truth when they meet.

10 Feb 2013 8:06 AM
Plod Boy Phil


I saw your horse danced madly in GP's 7th on Saturday.

Will we be seeing a two week Smart Play recap this week,  assuming computer issues have been resolved ?

10 Feb 2013 8:10 PM

Plod Boy Phil:

If you are referring to a comment I made, stick to what I said. Nowhere in that sentence, did I mention the Kentucky Derby. Yet you keep referring to the Kentucky Derby as if I alluded to it. I simply said:

“If a horse runs at an even pace, say 12 seconds a furlong for 10 furlongs, he will win some 10-furlong races by daylight”. This comment concerned horses running at an even pace.

This is the second time in this blog that you have inferred that I said or did something I did not say or do.

I know you have an axe to grind, but I would prefer that you do not attribute words to me. Just stick to what I said. Do not infer that I meant to say something else.

10 Feb 2013 8:30 PM

Anyone get that COLDCUTS is a BIG HUGE CONTRARIAN?...for years, this guy ALWAYS knocks anything on top, and mentions 30 horses that "might" do something.......a couple of people post they like tiz the truth and he points out the fact the horse is over rated....EVERYTHING is OVER RATED! .....HEY coldcuts! The horse that IMPROVES about 8 lengths...will win the argue, LEMONS to LEMONS(not apples to oranges) is retarded.....THE REAL FACTS are...all those horses you listed are really close....there is no OBVIOUS.......coldcuts, just keep listing all of those wacky horses....just like every year......knock every winner of every every year....

10 Feb 2013 8:49 PM

No bet POOL 1.....maybe pool 2....

10 Feb 2013 8:53 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Jersey Boy -

So I'm to think that in the midst of a Blog that is based on Derby contenders, in which you referenced Itsmyluckyday, a top contender on Pete's list, and in response to my inital post in which I questioned the validity of your original, you responded  using Secreatariat and Monarchos, I was wrong to infer you meant the Derby.

My bad.....

10 Feb 2013 9:09 PM

CONGRATS to RANAG!!!!.....hes been touting Fort Loudon for a year....he finally won!   You KNEW it! nice!

10 Feb 2013 9:42 PM

Coldfacts : I'm not saying Tiz The Truth should be hyped the same as Bodemeister, I'm merely saying that Bodemeister was hyped before he actually did something we rarely see, it turns out to be a justified hype as we all know now.  I don't think Tiz the truth is being hyped as much as Bode did last year, I saw TJ and probably a couple others that liked his last race and TJ loves this horse a lot.  I can related to him (I'm a Tiznow fan), and I'm hoping that he does progress as TJ thinks he will.  I would love to see a Tiznow baby competitive in the Derby.

I still think Belvin is the top cali horse that will be in the Derby if he stays healthy and progresses, let's see how he does on Sunday.

10 Feb 2013 10:25 PM


You write in a language with which I am not familiar and I doubt you are as well.

You clearly have a likeness for my posts and I suspect they are your first reads. There were other contributors that felt TTT's performance was not exceptional and does not merit the hype. I am at liberty to advanced opinions just like every other contributor. Highlighting certain cold facts about top horses brings balance to emotionally driven and flawed assessments. I recognize that this concept is  above your pay grade.

It is extremely difficult to have meaningful exchanges with one so challenged in the comprehension of written words. You continue to  try to demean others with annoying regularity and in so doing continue to confirm that your SOS status.

11 Feb 2013 8:34 AM

About pace scenarios.

Point of Entry’s win this weekend was a perfect example of the difficulty involved in assessing the ability of a horse that is amenable to rating.

Sometimes it is nearly impossible to determine how fast such a horse really is. The horse might appear to prefer a longer distance, but he might be just as effective at shorter distances. Or the horse might appear to be a stayer, but he might be a miler who gets the mile only because he is ratable. Horses of this type can be the source of great wins and great losses.

(Beware of Revolutionary. He just might be another Pyro).

Here are the splits in Point of Entry’s race this weekend. Slow early, then like an express train late:

25:45, 22:72, 22:47, 11:29

Point of Entry might even excel at a mile.

11 Feb 2013 9:23 AM

I had been awaiting the return of the TIznow colt Saint X ever since his 3rd Place finish to Xbow at CD.  My wait came to an end on Sunday when the Dale Romans colt contested a 7F MSW at GP.  He looked in excellent physical condition and when I saw the 6-1, I immediately thought my ship had sailed into harbor so I got on board big time. It turned out my wait turned into a nightmare as he finished 3rd with a major amount of my cash.

Why mention this colt? He did something at rarely seen at Gulfstream Park. Saint X had displayed tactical speed in his lost to Oxbow ad CD but was surprising 15L last down the back stretch in his return race. He had to be switched from the rails at the top of the stretch to clear five horses for his for his run. He was only beaten by 2L. He was really motoring in the last furlong and if not for ducking in under right hand whipping he might have been 2dn. The current Gulfstream Park surface is very unkind to closers and the finishing speed this colt displayed on a speed favoring track is very encouraging for the future. He is still a maiden but if I think he can be a force in any major 9F Derby prep with his pedigree.

As previous cited he was sired by BCC winner Tiznow and his dam was sired by Belmont winner Touch Gold. His first three dams were all graded stakes winners from powerful stamina influencing stallions.

Saint X one to watch!

11 Feb 2013 12:09 PM

Beware of many horses.  Many might not pan out.

11 Feb 2013 12:28 PM

KY Vet,

Fort Loudon has won already, defeating Triniberg and run some very good races in defeat such as Last year's King's Bishop.  Yes indeed he confirmed my opinion that he's  good horse and has many more races to win.

Your top ten is interesting ...nice list but do you really think that Shanghai Bobby wil get the Derby distance and has a better shot than Itsmyluckyday?

I like the exchanges between your self and Coldfacts except for the personal attacks. Its better to rumble on the conflicting ideas instead of name calling. Peace.

11 Feb 2013 1:38 PM

Jersey Boy,

I agree with your assessment of Point of Entry exceptional horse from 8 - 12 furlongs.  Are you, like me, wondering what's going to be all the apologetics/excuses for Animal Kingdom now?  Some are already scapegoating Joel Rosario's early move in that slow early pace but I'd say Rosario rode masterfuly in getting first run on Point of Entry but was beaten fairly and squarly by the beter horse. Animal Kingdom is obviously a very good horse but he hasn't produced the goods on the track to warrant the accolades that he stole from Caleb's Posse or the lustre he took off Wise Dan's breeder's Cup Mile victory.  Those who kept hyping him should be made to feel ashamed, apart from his connections whom one cannot blame for being optmistic about their horse.  Having said that, I wish for him every success in his Dubai and Royl Ascot exploits and will personally be rooting for him to come out on top.  

11 Feb 2013 1:54 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Ranag -


Since only the result is fact, it would be pure speculation to assume a different outcome had a more patient tactic been employed by Rosario.

That said, true masterpieces result in the highest level of achievement. It's likely that merely staying on the horse for the entire 9f results in a runner-up award.

11 Feb 2013 2:18 PM


I believe that what we have here are two high-class horses. It is possible that Animal Kingdom did not show his best. Animal Kingdom looked a bit heavy.  But what impressed me was the speed of Point of Entry. He gave 2 pounds to the runner-up in the Mile, yet beat him going 9 furlongs.

This ability of a horse to relax early and then fly home, is a big problem for handicappers. It is hard to tell how fast such a horse really is or what that horse’s ceiling is. In this case, Point of Entry did it while travelling wide.

What I believe looms next for Point of Entry is the Dubai Classic. The connections already know that he can stay 12 furlongs on grass.

11 Feb 2013 2:47 PM

They decided not to send Point of Entry to Dubai

11 Feb 2013 3:12 PM

ranag....i dont really love any on my list....the 2 yr old champ is as good as any....does anyone know, he pulled himself up in the cup race? Only started running when he saw that horse....weak cup time people go way too much on breeding..........itsmyluckyday not on my list......not worried about him......

11 Feb 2013 4:33 PM

Plod Boy Phil,

I'm saying that AK lost despite a great ride because his conqueror, PoE was better fault of the jock.

11 Feb 2013 5:16 PM

“Are you, like me, wondering what's going to be all the apologetics/excuses for Animal Kingdom now?”

Why do you anticipate that there will be lot of excuses for Animal Kingdom’s loss? Were there lots of excuses when he when he was defeated by Shackleford in the Preakness? There is a difference between speculating what would have been the outcome of a race if a particular horse had trouble free tripe as opposed to using same as an excuse. Speculations should not be viewed as excuses.

“Some are already scapegoating Joel Rosario's early move in that slow early pace but I'd say Rosario rode masterfully in getting first run on Point of Entry but was beaten fairly and squarely by the better horse.”

I concur that Mr. Rosario made the correct decision in moving when he did. To allow a horse the quality of POE to get first run in a race that was progressing at snail’s pace for a G1, would be senseless. I cannot think of any Gl horse that is worth its salt that cannot contest a 1:13 pace. To those who are of the opinion that the jockey moved prematurely, kindly revisit the 2011 Spiral Stakes.  Animal kingdom has a quick strike running style and that was on display on Saturday.

“Animal Kingdom is obviously a very good horse but he hasn't produced the goods on the track to warrant the accolades that he stole from Caleb's Posse or the luster he took off Wise Dan's breeder's Cup Mile victory.”

You cannot be serious!  Animal Kingdom returned to the races after almost 9 months and was beaten by eventual HOY Wise Dan by <2L in track record time. He then faced POE who is easily the top rated long distance turf horse and is beaten by a 1L and he has not produced the goods? Two G1 races in one year against two top rated horses and he is beaten by < 3L .

You continue to discredit this 4YO because he secured the 3YO eclipse award over your choice Caleb's Posse.  His exploits since has made him a worthy recipient.  Caleb's Posse avoided all the major G1 races for 3YO and you are convinced he should have been the champion. To be the best one must face the best! The ultimate test for a thoroughbred is the Triple Crown a 3 race series in five weeks where only the strong survive. Caleb's Posse was MIA during the series and it was not because he was injured. You are a knowledgeable thoroughbred enthusiast and should realize that your robbery claim regarding a colt that was in hiding when the likes of Animal Kingdom and Shackleford were duking it out in the ultimate test for thoroughbreds is overwhelmingly flawed.

11 Feb 2013 5:43 PM
Plod Boy Phil


Your opinion was/is clear.

My opinion is equally so.  The Rosario ride was neither masterful nor great. It was a ride.

As I have cosnsitently stated from day one on this Blog and any other, attempting to modify the results on record by changing the events that led to those results, is nothing more than meaningless speculation.

PoE won the race. To under-value it via baseless excuses, or to over-value it by glorifying the efforts of his main competitor's rider, whether real or imagined, is unwarranted.

While some may find merit in AK's connections choosing to keep him in training, it seems a disservice to the horse and his fans that he is raced so infrequently as to prevent him from producing peak performances.  For some perspective, I was not an AK fan until his after his very impressive turf debut from our point of view.

11 Feb 2013 5:49 PM

There is a contributor who has repeatedly highlighted the slow time recorded in the 2012 Breeder s Cup Juvenile and has  concluded that the group  that contested the race is weak. The time recorded in the 2012 BCJ was indeed the slowest in the history of the race. How have the winners of the BCJ in 1:44 and a bit fared in the Kentucky Derby?

1994 - Timber Country (1:44.55 CD) 3rd Kentucky Derby; Won the Preakness.

1998 - Answer Lively (1:44.00 CD) 10th KD; Cat Thief finished 3rd and was 3rd in KD.

2011 - Hansen (1:44.44 CD) 9th KD; Creative Cause was third and finished 4th in KD and 3rd in the Preakness

2012 - Shanghai Bobby (1:44.58 SA)?

The records of BCJ winners that fall into the 1:44 category are moderate at best. - Shanghai Bobby occupies the #3 slot on Mr. Haskin’s list and the #6 slot on Pete’s list. Based on the above historic data both gentlemen seem to be aware that the prospects of the first three past  the post occupying the Derby top spot is very remote.  

11 Feb 2013 6:46 PM
Pete Denk

Hope you all had a great weekend. Landed back in Lexington this afternoon after spending three days down in Ft. Lauderdale (for a wedding).

Plod, I appreciate your interest in my Locksmith recaps. I will do so later tonight or tomorrow. Had a profitable week, although I did not put (6-1 winner) Fire Guard on the sheet this time! Seeing him sweaty and lathered and rank last time, I decided I wasn't comfortable touting him on the advance analysis. I needed to see him on track.

Hey KY Vet or anyone, any ideas on 1st vs. 2nd-time Lasix? Fire Guard was a wreck first-time Lasix, then ran to his previous profile 2nd time Lasix.

11 Feb 2013 7:49 PM

Prospector sire line. Below are the top colts from this line that comprise my watch list for this sire line.

Capo Bastone



Curly Top




Treasury Bill

Del Mar Sunset

Omega Star

Will Take Charge

Code West

Texas Bling

There are many interesting colts but Treasury Bill, Foot bridge, Code West and Omega Star are my favorites. Treasury Bill is a deep closer who appears suited by a fast pace upfront and with the leading Derby contenders having some much tactical speed he must be dangerous if he makes it. His dam won the Ladies H.(AQU,10F) and Move H.(G3,Aqu,9F)  

11 Feb 2013 8:01 PM

Pete....doubt it was LASIX that caused horse to get has the opposite affect.....think it might have been another reason.......i dont really think the lasix issue is as big of a deal as most..............cant argue with those that love horse 1st time lasix....there is some merit to it helping some......

11 Feb 2013 8:27 PM

MAN!......someone please tell coldcuts about how the bcjuv. time was slow.......this guy always posts time of race, no variant! The race was at santa anita right? good were the horses behind the winner? Look the winner completely pricked ears , and pulled up when he got the lead....he didnt run fast! He had more in the tank....COME ON MAN!

11 Feb 2013 8:33 PM

EVERY HORSE IS DIFFERENT........some, lasix helps, some it doesnt do much.......some can withstand training, some do better with less work...................ALOT of General statements on this blog about things...................

11 Feb 2013 8:37 PM

Animal kingdom being put down? What the heck is going on? PLOD BOY is WACKED! He got 2nd to hoy....then 2nd to top turf horse.....HE IS POINTING FOR THE DUBAI CLASSIC!!!!!!!!!! NO PEAK PERFORMANCES?   PLOD BOY? Whats wrong with you?

11 Feb 2013 8:41 PM

Pete- I have heard of some horses having that reaction to first time Lasix.  It isn't the typical reaction, nor even a common occurrence as far as I know, but I have heard of it.  I wouldn't totally discount it, but can't guarantee there wasn't another reason either.  The only way to know for sure would be to ask the vet or trainer.

11 Feb 2013 8:56 PM


How many grade one races has Animal Kingdom won since his Kentucky Derby victory? Also take a good look at the cold facts of his record in this regard vis a vis Caleb's Posse and Wise Dan's.  I understand your perspective on the 3YO Eclipse award (you've made that point ad nauseum) but I wonder if you understand mine.  After the BC Mile last fall, some foks were suggesting that Animal Kingdom was the best horse in the race and that he would've beaten Wise Dan with clean trip, a view that I strongly refuted. Such discussion was taking away from the sparkling performance andbrilliance of Wise Dan (subsequently voted HOTY). It was the same hype which promoted AK with his SINGULAR grade one victory, albeit the Kentucky Derby, as the top 3YO coltover a more deserving performer. In my opinon his resume was a bit lacking, notwithstanding the weight of the Kentucky Derby when compared to the brilliant performances of Caleb's Posse, an oustanding  miler (a category not now inferior, thanks to Frankel, especially in a crop where the route horses were not dominant). His loss to Point of Entry again validates my view that he is a very good horse but not a great one ...not even a multiple Grade one winnr yet.

11 Feb 2013 9:00 PM
Plod Boy Phil


With no empirical data to support, I'm inclined to anticipate an improved performance 2nd time lasix if the 1st time fails to do the job.  This application seems most relevant in runners that have established an ability level prior to receiving the drug, i.e. not 2nd or 3rd time starters lacking solid form.

Fire Guard met the criteria nicely.

11 Feb 2013 9:02 PM

KY Vet,

Animal Kingdom is not being berated, just right-sized in term of his quality.

11 Feb 2013 9:03 PM
Plod Boy Phil


Do you believe that AK has produced his best possible turf performance yet?

If you believe that any of his three turf races are his peak performances, would you, in all your wisdom, recommend a trip to Dubai?

If the connections believe he's delivered his best,  would they still be considering a trip to Dubai?

As for 'general statements being thrown about on this blog', is there anyone more adept at the craft than you?

Finally,  what is wrong with your brain that you are incapable of actually reading a post and understanding the points being made?

11 Feb 2013 9:20 PM

Plod......he lost to the horse of the year! And the top turf horse.....whats wrong with you?   OK....we have ranag and plod boy betting against animal kingdom in dubai........we have you down for that..........what a DISSERVICE to racing!!!!  Is this a joke?    PLod......leave the training to the experts........

11 Feb 2013 9:50 PM

Plod me a favor.....look at the breeders cup race again..........animal kingdom is not a really good horse? WATCH!!!!!! LEARN!!!!!!!

11 Feb 2013 9:51 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Tomorrow at Fair Grounds:

Race 8

4 Stay Put (8-1): returned off a 10 wk freshening w/ an impossible wide trip behind a very Speed favoring Flow.  There appears to be plenty of speed in the gate, which may bode well for an off the pace type.  The expected rainy conditions add to the appeal.

11 Feb 2013 10:07 PM
Plod Boy Phil


He is a very good horse - I never said otherwise. In fact, I wrote here and on my site after the BCM that he would be the best middle distance turf horse on 'the planet' in 2013.  Perhaps a bit overstated, but his Flow figures as a turf horse were impressive up to and including that race. I certainly won't be betting another horse in the Dubai race.

11 Feb 2013 10:13 PM

it seems a disservice to the horse and his fans that he is raced so infrequently as to prevent him from producing peak form...........WHY POST THIS STATEMENT?  Getting 2nd in those last 2 races were a disservice?   I can see why you are backtracking from that idiot statement.......good boy!

11 Feb 2013 10:40 PM
Plod Boy Phil


re: Sunday GP R7

I'm not sure I can reference racing flow,  but the 7f race in which Saint X impressed you with his late kick was in the top 5% for closer favorability. We recorded no bias from the seven dirt races.

11 Feb 2013 10:53 PM
Plod Boy Phil

I posted the statement because it is my opinion. I posted my high expectations of AK on or about Nov 7th. Perhaps the clear sentences and lack of yelling threw you off.

How are those rescue flares holding up?

11 Feb 2013 11:06 PM

You said that statement......dont be embarrassed.....

11 Feb 2013 11:15 PM

Did AK seem confused by leading early? I don't and never will trust Rosario in any race. I don't like him, think he is a crook, and nothing will ever change my opinion of him. If he's riding a favorite in a race, I am not betting the race, period.

11 Feb 2013 11:19 PM

Agree that Rosario rode Animal Kingdom as best he could but he just wasn't a match to PoE on that day.  PoE was just too much for him that day and if the race was 12Fs, PoE would've won by many lengths.  Having said that, I think Rosario would probably hold him back a little longer before letting him make his one run in Dubai.  If he runs against PoE again, my money would be on him...

predict : what makes you think Rosario is a crook ?  I knew him when he started at Golden Gate Fields and I thought the kid worked his way up to be one of the top riders in the country by working and riding hard and being very smart with the horses he got.  He did win his share of races and that's why he is where he's at.  Contrary to PBP's world who doesn't think jockeys make a difference and they just sit on the horse all race long (why, I have no idea lol), I thought he's one of the smartest jockeys actively riding.  He knows the horse he rides, and knows where to put them.  He's not perfect but I think he can ride a lot better than most jockeys in the nation.

Just curious as to why you dislike him.

Anyone know what the deal is with RTTR ?  Are they not doing it this year ?

12 Feb 2013 12:37 AM


I do not wish to get into a discussion of Lasix. But this is what the South African study showed:

“81 of the 120 (67.5%) horses that had EIPH after administration of saline solution had a reduction in EIPH severity score of at least 1 when treated with furosemide... the prerace administration of furosemide decreased the incidence and severity of EIPH in Thoroughbreds racing under typical conditions in South Africa.”(Abstract: Journal of the American Veterinary Medical Association 2009)

The problem the bettor faces is that he does not know whether the horse he is planning to bet on is in fact a bleeder. If the horse is not a bleeder, I suppose it is anyone’s guess what effect the first-time or second-time administration of Lasix will do to the horse’s performance.

I will make no further comment on this subject.

Notice I did not fall into the trap of referring to the efficacy of the drug.

12 Feb 2013 8:43 AM


If a jockey takes a horse out of its normal and capable running pattern, there is a good chabce he is betting on another horse, this makes them a crook. Rosario rode in So.Cal. for awhile. He was riding a very good maiden, that was favored to win the race. He totally and cpmpletely stiffed the horse in the race so that the owners would believe the horse was not as good as they had been made to believe. The next day an agent of Rosario showed up at the owners to make an offer for the horse, at what he hoped would now be a reduced price. That my friend is a crook.

12 Feb 2013 10:29 AM


“How many grade one races has Animal Kingdom won since his Kentucky Derby victory?”

The colt has been plagued by physical issues and has made three starts in 12 months. If either Wise Dan or POE made 3 starts in 12 months, how do you think they would perform against the best G1 horses in the country? I suspect you think a lot better since you continue to discredit AK in spite of the major challenges he face entering the BCM (Turf)

“I understand your perspective on the 3YO Eclipse award (you've made that point ad nauseum)”

How many times have you either posted or inferred that Caleb's Posse was robbed of the Eclipse Award for champion 3YO? If my repeated attempt to keep you honest is being done to a disgusting extent, then stop promoting this absurd claim ad nauseam.

“After the BC Mile last fall, some foks were suggesting that Animal Kingdom was the best horse in the race and that he would've beaten Wise Dan with clean trip”

Your over-reaction to speculations is understandable as you are a big fan of Wise Dan. How has these speculations impacted WD? He defeated a good field that included a Derby winner returning from being   on the shelves for 9 months. If AK was able to have a problem preparation would the results have been different? It is fair to speculate that the likelihood of this. Those that have done so are not stealing WD’s thunder as it is a reasonable speculation.

“It was the same hype which promoted AK with his SINGULAR grade one victory, albeit the Kentucky Derby, as the top 3YO colt over a more deserving performer.”

Ak won races on dirt, turf and synthetic t and in so going has proven his versatility. He won the premier race for 3YO and was second 2 weeks later in the Preakness. He exited the Belmont with an injury. Where was CP when the following races were being contested: KD, Preakness, Belmont, Travers, Jim Dandy and Haskell? He did not enter the TC and your robbed champion would have been fresh for Travers, Jim Dandy and Haskell that are all major G1 & 2 races for 3YO. Animal Kingdom had an excuse as he was injured, what was the excuse for CP?

“Also take a good look at the cold facts of his record in this regard vis a vis Caleb's Posse and Wise Dan's”

I do not know how Wise Dan got into the mix. However, Caleb's Posse returned as a 4YO and finished 2nd in two Gl races to Shackleford and Jacksons Bend. AK returned as a 4YO and finished 2nd in two Gl races to two of the top rated horses in the country. Now whose resume looks better?  Stop digging as your many fans and I will unable to extract form your hole.

12 Feb 2013 10:34 AM

Here's an article about Rosario.

Rosario Cleared by California Stewards

By Jason Shandler, @JasonShandler

Updated: Friday, December 18, 2009 3:24 PM

Posted: Tuesday, December 15, 2009 5:01 PM

Read more on's an article about Rosario:

12 Feb 2013 10:43 AM


The product was administered to Long River for the Withers and he ran his worst race to date. I had wagers on Fire Guard in his previous start and his performance was very flat.

The revered Mr. Pletecher blamed the last place finish for Life At Ten on a possible Lasix reaction.  

Assuming the product will be administered to Long River again, an improved performance could add some credence to your theory

12 Feb 2013 10:48 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Jersey Boy-

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe Pete actually asked his readers to provide our opinions of Lx1 vs Lx2.

12 Feb 2013 11:09 AM
Plod Boy Phil


Just curious,  but how does Rosario's win % on favorites differ from the other top 5 riders in that room.

Perhaps of equal importance,  though more difficult to actually quantify, what were your pre-race views of said favorites without the negative influence of your position on Rosario?

12 Feb 2013 11:12 AM

Plod Boy Phil,

Your quote

“Finally, what is wrong with your brain that you are incapable of actually reading a post and understanding the points being made?”

My quote

“It is extremely difficult to have meaningful exchanges with one so challenged in the comprehension of written words.”

I do believe we have recognized similar deficiencies in the VET'S comprehension skills  or lack thereof. Annoyance will invariably be the result of engaging such individuals.

Saint X:

I have seen your many posts regarding racing flow. I am not familiar with the system and will readily accept your analysis.

"We recorded no bias from the seven dirt races."

The bias I referenced did not relate to a particular that particular day. The Gulfstream Park surface appears to favor horses with high cruising speed and those that can be forwardly placed. Rarely do horses close from 15L off the pace on that surface. He did it with a 5 wide trip and I considered that worthy of notice.

Saint X looked a bit loss in the first two furlongs of the race and might need blinkers.

You are the flow expert and I have no problem  defaulting to your position on the track and the performance.

12 Feb 2013 11:21 AM

Plod Boy Phil:

I do not know what you mean by  “Lx1 vs Lx2”.

If you want to use abbreviations, please use standard abbreviations. I do not like the idea of trying to figure out what the writer means. You will notice I hardly ever use abbreviations.

I gave a response to the question. What element of the response do you find questionable?

As I indicated, it is not a subject I wish to dwell on.

Pete’s question is still on the blog.

12 Feb 2013 11:55 AM


“MAN!......someone please tell coldcuts about how the bcjuv. time was slow.”

You obviously have issue with comprehension. What part of my post below confused you?

“The time recorded in the 2012 BCJ was indeed the slowest in the history of the race”

“this guy always posts time of race, no variant! The race was at santa anita right?”

The venue for the race was specified:

“2012 - Shanghai Bobby (1:44.58 SA)?’

You have totally missed what the data reflects. No winner of the BCJ in a time of 1:44 whether they were pricking their ears or pulling up, has finished better than 3rd in the Derby. The venue of the race is irrelevant as both the fastest and slowest times for the BCJ were recorded at SA.

If you wanted to make a meaningful point you could have pointed out that the group was not administered with the performance enhancer Lasix and consequently the final time could have been faster.

Shanghai Bobby’s antics were brief and the others behind him did not run any faster.

Calm down Vet and remember to take your medication.

12 Feb 2013 12:00 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Coldfacts -

re: Saint X

Performances such as his often catch the eye of race watchers. While I understand the impact of ground loss, wide trips under ideal closing scenarios are frequently over-valued by trip handicappers. Perhaps he improves dramatically as 3s are capable of at this time of year. If he wins his next, it will be without me,  even if the expected early pace scenario looks like it will set up for a closer.

re: GP

We have not recorded a legit speed Bias on the main since Jan 20, 2013.


12 Feb 2013 12:01 PM


I don.t know, maybe they are all crooks, who knows, certainly not me, but one thing I did know was that AK was not and is not a horse that wins when moved very early in a race. No sour apples here, I didn't bet the race, and without further investigation, which will be unable to prove anything, anyway, I choose to dislike Rosario. He isn't and won't be the only jockey I feel this way about. Do you really believe that everything is always on the up and up? I wish I could, but too many years of watching this sport has left me with my doubts.

12 Feb 2013 12:20 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Jersey Boy-

Pete wrote: "...any ideas on 1st vs. 2nd-time Lasix?"

I responded to his question with a clear opinion, regardless of whether or not that opinion was 'right'.

You responded with a cut and paste portion of a South American study on Lasix administration in general. That response did not address the question Pete posed.  Surely, Pete is capable of finding such studies if he had the desire to show us that he too is intelligent enough to use a search engine.

I then responded to you using reasonably inferable abbreviations for 1st Lasix (Lx1) and second Lasix (Lx2).

I think this covers the facts in evidence.

12 Feb 2013 12:26 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Predict -

If I believed that the long term results of this game were anything but legit,  I'd have been gone decades ago.  Many believe that one can 'beat a race, but not the races'.  I believe that the opposite is true, as long term results regress 'towards the mean' while the result of any given race may be impacted by a number of factors.  These factors include, to some extent, something as simple as the time at which the gate is opened.

Good luck.

12 Feb 2013 12:40 PM

Plod Boy Phil

“If he wins his next, it will be without me, even if the expected early pace scenario looks like it will set up for a closer. “

Wow! Aren’t you being bid harsh on the young colt? I regard myself as being more than just a trip handicapper. Saint X was acquired for $450K and must have made an impressive appearance in the sale ring.  Being by Tiznow out of Touch Gold mare, his best distances are likely to be a mile and longer.

He finished 4th in his 6F debut, beaten by 12L. In his second start at 7F he finished 3rd beaten 7 ¾ by the speedy Oxbow whom he led briefly. He finished 3rd beaten 2L in his most recent start closing from 15L last.  Based on his pedigree he would have to contest races with weak fields to be competitive at the aforementioned distances. The field for his last race was probably the weakest he has faced.

He carries his head very high which means a shadow roll would be a useful addition to his head gear. Blinkers may help him focus as in two of his starts he was up with the leaders early then he dropped back and came running at the end.

This colt is going to be very effective at distance at a mile and longer and I am sure his trainer will take the necessary measures to ensure he  performance to his potential.

We will revisit this youngster after his next start.

12 Feb 2013 2:07 PM
Plod Boy Phil


I'm not being harsh on this young colt or on those that have a different opinion of him than I do.

I take stances on horses based on our Figures.  While I am not always 'right' (aka 'getting a good result'), it is a methodolgy that I am extremely confident in and for good reason.

It is my hope that Saint X stretches to a distance of ground, is overbet acording to my line (the only line that matters) based on a trip that many will over-value.  The ideal scenario in the race would also include a horse that we have upgraded that is overlaid based on our methods.

If Saint X does win, I will not backtrack nor will not doubt the downgrade. I will wait for the figure so as to update his 'grade' as warranted.

I am not a good enough handicapper to pour over countless variables in an attempt to seperate runners that, without our figures, appear on the surface to have merits worthy of inclusion.

12 Feb 2013 2:42 PM


I have a difficult time with "the long term results of this game" and "as long term results regress towards the mean" To regress, or move back to a point that is in the middle with as many results above and below in an infinite scenario is in itself a contradiction of terms. Are you saying that the results are approaching or reverting to a mean at all times? To me a result is always dynamic with a never ending or infinite number of results possible and would never ever achieve anything so exact as a mean for the mean itself will always change with every result. What possibly could you mean by a "mean" of a horse race anyway? I agree that factors impact races, but I can't agree with quantifying all the factors in any given race. I guess I would fall into a category of a player who doesn't believe in systems, because if a system truly worked, I would never try to sell that information, rather I would simply enjoy the profits that it returned, and would not need the income from sharing that information. It has always amazed me how many people are willing to depart with their hard earned income to buy someone else's proclaimed choices that are little else than opinion based on their "so called system" which if it were truly working for them why are they sharing it? The true joy of this game is not just winning, which is a good thing, but the joy of solving a puzzle that every race presents, and yes it does involve "Good luck" as no one can always be right.

Good luck to you,too... sincerely.

12 Feb 2013 2:47 PM
Plod Boy Phil


I'll simplify with the idea that the bad rides, poor starts, lost photos, DQ's, etc, etc, etc, will balance out over time.  Even in your world of cheats and fixed results, such isolated incidents would not supercede your bottom line over a sample size which produces a satisfactory 'p' value,  assuming such factors could be quantified.

I never wrote that anyone can quantify all factors in a race.

As for the age-old question of why do we sell it, the answer is simple.  Until our subscribers begin to adversely impact the odds on our horses, it's a win win. They receive useful information that can improve their bottom line and we make money from their success. If what we provide is not valuable, we would be out of business.  You do realize that the  percentage of horse bettors that make their living exclusively from gambling is a very small number, don't you?

12 Feb 2013 3:37 PM
Plod Boy Phil


re: Animal Kingdom

Since I'm aware that he was highly regarded by THT leading up to the 2011 Derby, I'v been waiting for your expert take on him as a 5 yr old horse and specifically the GPTH on Saturday.


12 Feb 2013 3:43 PM

Why does COLDCUTS always use words like Clearly....OBVIOUS.....when trying to make an arguement about things that are close.....ranag thought calebs posse was best, coldcuts loved shackleford, not animal wasnt a clear cut year...........period....coldcuts always likes to say how these horses that lose, are clearly best.........or how clearly, obviously, a horse that hasnt even won a race, should be on the derby top 20..............funny stuff!

12 Feb 2013 4:24 PM

PREDICT wins the award for most ignorant post!  rosario would rather cash a bet, then the 18,000 that goes to winning jockey......of course! What a genius!!

12 Feb 2013 4:34 PM

Saint X ....closed into a horse going almost.......14 seconds.......pretty good for a 3 mile race.......

12 Feb 2013 4:42 PM


You've defended Animal Kingdom like a pitbull on steroids. I guess Barry Irwin will now consider you an friend (LOL).  

12 Feb 2013 5:32 PM
KY VET come coldcuts forgets that clearly, obviously , shackleford should win the 3 yr old championship.....he was against animal this?  Anyone else remember? He made just as much of a pit bull stance against animal kingdom........

12 Feb 2013 8:35 PM


Thankyou for pointing that out, I have renewed faith in your brilliance, really.

12 Feb 2013 8:49 PM

PBP : You didn't address predicts point :

" It has always amazed me how many people are willing to depart with their hard earned income to buy someone else's proclaimed choices that are little else than opinion based on their "so called system" which if it were truly working for them why are they sharing it? "

If it's really working, wouldn't you make more money using your system instead of selling it ?  I'm actually interested on your response to that since you've always claimed that your system is the only one that is proven because it's based on ... on... uh...  KY VET knows what it's based on...

12 Feb 2013 9:45 PM

Mr. SOS,

I made a case for Shackleford but specified that if he did not secure the eclipse Animal Kingdom should be the one. I have evidence to support my past position on this issue.

I also specified repeatedly why CP was not worthy.

12 Feb 2013 10:41 PM


Barry Irvin has already classified me. Did you miss it? LOL

12 Feb 2013 10:53 PM

Mr. SOS,

"Saint X ....closed into a horse going almost.......14 seconds.......pretty good for a 3 mile race"

The half mile split for the race was 45 and a bit. What I have seen in this colt was not from his last race.

His major positives will never be highlighted by closing fractions of a race.

You and other will have plenty of time to retract your statements.

12 Feb 2013 11:00 PM

Jay jay.........pbp in case you dont remember, admits to being a failed handicapper........he doesnt handicap, he posted that he takes only a couple of mins. a race.........he provides a service...race flow, race shape.....a creditable tool in it, a small pun has a place in the world.....its not without value.......small tools cant pun intended........

12 Feb 2013 11:10 PM
KY VET're really saying, you like saint x.....not from his best race, but the worst races that he ran? Pretty typical.......maybe, you might wanna look for horses that have actually won a race.......we ARE talking derby arent we?  Have you lost your mind? I really dont wanna be mean........but what are you DOING?..........someone had to say it.......

12 Feb 2013 11:18 PM
Plod Boy Phil

JayJay -

Clearly, you have the same disorder as KY VET - an inability to read the written word and process the information contained therein.

I absolutely answered the question, so return to the response and re-read it.

To reinterate, ours is not a 'system'.  We are a figure based methodolgy which focuses on Flow and Bias to isolate undervalued and overvalued runners in pools dominated by non-users.

If you have additional queries,  send me an e-mail - address located on the U/A page of our site. I'll be more than happy to respond.

12 Feb 2013 11:25 PM

heres 13 picks for wed feb 13th..

tam race 4-#1 Meggie

tam race 10-#10 READY FOR RAY

GP race 1--#4 ARIELS BAY


GP race 5--#5 REGAL MELODY

GP race 7--#3 CATCANDO

GP race 9 -#9 POCO MAN

13 Feb 2013 1:14 AM

Beu race 1 --#5 PROUD PLUCK


DED race 7--#6 GIBES

DED race 10 -#1 JET EMOTIONS

CT race 5--#8 IM NOT MAD IM EVEN

CT race 9-- #8 wicklife MAN...............Good luck VET!!!!!

13 Feb 2013 1:18 AM
Mary Zinke

Yes, GL, KY.

You guys were funny today.

13 Feb 2013 2:08 AM


I do not evaluate all 3YOs for the Derby only as there are only 20 available spots. Many of the horses on Pete's list will not make the Derby field. Under the current points system a maiden can place in a high point’s race and has a shot of making the Derby field over a winner with less points.

It appears there is exclusive focus on The Derby. Recently 300 plus horses were nominated to the Triple Crown. The Derby is not the only race in the series.  Saint X's pedigree screams Belmont.

Expand your horizon!  

13 Feb 2013 8:21 AM

Plod Boy Phil,

“I am not a good enough handicapper to pour over countless variables in an attempt to separate runners that, without our figures, appear on the surface to

have merits worthy of inclusion.”

I fully understand and respect the concept and your conviction. With the available data Saint X is an overwhelming downgrade.

While your system focusses on performance and track bias, it appears it ignores other pertinent variables that could have impacted performance.

Let’s use Transparent as an example.  After watching one of his performance’s I concluded that he needed blinkers as he was running in phases. It’s a head gear I favor only when necessary. When said bit of equipment was added his performances improved significantly. Under your system he probably would not have been considered for evaluation as he ran poorly in the particular race.

Saint X gallops with his head very high and that adversely impacts efficiency in motion. If there is a bit of equipment that can correct this negative aspect of his motion his speed will be enhanced.

While I am sure there are a lot of positives associated with the Flow System, the observation of other variables can enhance the ultimate upgrade/downgrade decision.

Is there a breakeven point?

13 Feb 2013 8:52 AM
Plod Boy Phil


If I may,  one additional response to the question, "why sell it if it does so well".

First, this is an ignorant question. Really, it is.

If pari-mutual betting was limited to a win pool only, then and only then does the notion that we would make more money keeping it to ourselves have any credibility. The reality is that there are so many wagering pools available to bettors (WPS, Ex, Tri, Super, DD, P3, P4, P6) that the likelihood of any or all users having an impact on our returns is negligible at best.

Thanks - good day.

13 Feb 2013 9:50 AM

Plod Boy Phil,

Overview appreciated.


13 Feb 2013 10:22 AM

Best Bet Today(Ash Wednesday)

GP R-9 : Act of Divinity

Peace, Love and Good Luck to all

13 Feb 2013 10:54 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Coldfacts -

Glad you had a chance to read it before it was taken down.  


I had no intention of trying to slip something past you.


13 Feb 2013 11:56 AM

PBP : I read your response, and it's pretty clear you're trying to avoid answering it.   Your answer is more like a politician's answer ... "it's a win win" ?  Come on man... let me ask you a question.  Do you actually bet the horses you give to your users as "upgrades" ?   I'm gonna guess, you don't gamble?  What is Flows win/loss record for this year so far ?

13 Feb 2013 12:04 PM
Plod Boy Phil


I repeat: It's a stupid question asked by ignorant people.

Your anonymity provides you with great courage.

13 Feb 2013 12:16 PM
Plod Boy Phil


I'll play along.


3) 1

7) 11

9) 7

13 Feb 2013 12:25 PM

And the best goes on........

13 Feb 2013 12:29 PM

Auto- correct.  Should have been "and the beat goes on".

13 Feb 2013 12:30 PM
Plod Boy Phil


No apologies here, except for the cluttering effect it has on the Blog. I'm all out of cheeks where's he's concerned.

I've requested several times that he contact me via e-mail, yet he chooses not to, preferring instead to slap and run like a pre-adolescent schoolgirl with a crush.

He has never offered the first piece of useful information in any of his post, and certainly hasn't expressed the first original thought or concept.


13 Feb 2013 1:28 PM

Phil- my comment was not directed at you.  You have tried. It is like a dog snapping at your ankles all the time.

13 Feb 2013 1:48 PM
Pete Denk

Locksmith Smart Plays recap from last Saturday to follow...

I had a good week with two wins and two seconds from seven plays.

For the year, the Locksmith analysis is 46: 12-6-2. Picking 28.6% winners, with a $2 win bet ROI of $2.26 (+13% return).

$6 across the board ROI is $5.82.

Results so far this year strangely top heavy. I usually pick nearly as many 2nds as I do winners. And just two shows from 42 plays? Glad I am not much of a show bettor!

13 Feb 2013 2:05 PM
Pete Denk

Locksmith Smart Plays recap from last Saturday begins here...

Gulfstream Park

Race 5 2:37 ET

Optional Claiming $75,000/NW1X 3yos (6 ½ furlongs dirt)

2 Declan’s Warrior (4-1 ML odds) broke from the rail and came from 12 lengths back to win his debut race at the speedy oriented distance of 5 ½ furlongs. That is not easy to do. He was powering home nicely in that race, and he is going to love the added distance today. Top threat if ready.

Odds: 2.80

Result: Hard-tryer rallied wide for second, beaten a neck by Park City, who slipped up the inside.

13 Feb 2013 2:15 PM
Pete Denk

Race 6 3:05 ET

Maiden 3yos (1 1/16 miles dirt)

5 Wabbajack (5-1 ML odds)finished an improving third in his second lifetime start when stretched out to a mile. He showed speed inside early, pulled back, then re-rallied behind next-out winner Doherty. Joel Rosario stays on board, and he should settle just off the leaders and make one run today.

Odds: 6.20

Result: Rallied for second behind wire-to-wire, blinkers-on winner Saint Vigeur, who went off the 3-1 chalk and held Wabbajack off late. Wabbajack contributed to a $29 exacta (for a $1) and $6.80 place payout if u went there.

13 Feb 2013 2:26 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Forbidden Apple -

I think you had Spun Cap last time.

Did you come back with him today?

13 Feb 2013 2:27 PM

tampa race 6.....dont see this too often.....wild wild since 08! nice little layoff......

13 Feb 2013 2:30 PM
Pete Denk

Race 9 4:29 ET

GP Sprint Championship 4yo and up (7 furlongs dirt)

5 Fort Loudon (4-1 ML odds) shortens up to his best distance after finishing a distant third to Grade 1 winner Ron the Greek going 1 1/8 miles. Fort Loudon beat champion sprinter Trinniberg last year in the Carry Back (G3) and was second in the King’s Bishop (G1) at Saratoga.

Odds: 3.80

Result: Winner, and he either showed some class or the rail/inside speed was really good, cuz Fort Loudon pressed the pace throughout in this hard-fought 7f race that went in 1:21-4.

13 Feb 2013 2:31 PM
Pete Denk

Race 10 4:59 ET

Suwanee River Stakes (G3) F&M (1 1/8 miles on turf)

4 Hard Not to Like (7-2 ML odds) showed talent at ages two and three, but she looked like she took a step forward in her four-year-old debut when winning the Marshua’s River (G3). She broke from the outside (8) post that day, not easy on this track, and showed good positional speed and a strong finish (:28-2), re-breaking along the inside to outfinish Channel Lady, whom she faces again today. Should be able to work out a good trip today.

Odds: 2.90

Result: 5th. I didn't think they'd let the winner Channel Lady get away on the front, but regardless I'll temper my read on HNTL based on this defeat.

13 Feb 2013 2:34 PM
Pete Denk

Race 11 5:32 ET

Donn Handicap (G1) 4yo and up (1 1/8 miles dirt)

2 Flat Out (3-1 ML odds) was compromised by the speed biased track when finishing third in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1). He is a legitimate Grade 1 horse and has been consistent in four races for trainer Bill Mott. The workout pattern looks strong, highlighted by a pair of 6f moves. Someone will have to improve significantly to beat him. I like 1 Bourbon Courage as an underneath key. He was developing nicely when stretched out late in his three-year-old campaign.

Odds: 2-1 on Flat Out and 3.3-1 on Bourbon Courage.

Result: Flat Out was flat and finished 4th. His trainer Bill Mott was quoted in DRF theorizing that Flat Out hates GP and would not race there anymore.

Bourbon Courage ran a nice second, running his final 3/8 in :37-flat, a good time on this surface. I think he's a Grade 1 handicap horse this year. Breaks the Lion Heart mold with his staying ability and development pattern.

Winner GRaydar also ran a big one to win this race on the front end. Huge ability but very lightly raced, this 4yo by Unbridled's Song is 3-for-4 lifetime. We've seen this prototype before from this stallion.

13 Feb 2013 2:41 PM
Pete Denk


Race 12 5:59 ET

Maiden (1 1/16 miles on turf)

2 Kid Lightning (5-1 ML odds) had a ridiculous trip in his debut on the Belmont turf. He missed the start and was rushed up through a stop-and-go trip. He’s much better than that race looks on paper. He showed good speed in the slop but tired to finish 4th against a solid maiden field last time. He gets back on the turf today and drew a good inside post.

Odds: 3.60

Result: Nice win.

Got an inside trip, but had to make two moves to get there. Lezcano asked him early, and he received sharp acceleration into a slow pace, running up onto the leaders' heels. Caught a nice seam turning for home and finished well in :29-4.

Kid Lightning is a 3yo colt, half to champion Stevie Wonderboy and will definitely merit consideration at the next level.

Note that the split division of this race (the 7th) went two seconds faster at the wire, with similar final 5/16s.

I think race 7 winner winner Fire Guard, whom I have been favorable on since the debut last summer at Saratoga, and runner-up Jack Milton are 3yo graded stakes material on the grass.

13 Feb 2013 2:58 PM
Pete Denk

All the above plays from last Saturday's Locksmith Smart Plays were at Gulfstream...

13 Feb 2013 2:58 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Thanks Pete.

- We had just Hard Not to Like in common. I will not temper my read as Channel Lady benefitted from a very Speed favoring Flow. The 2nd thru 5th place finishers deserve extra credit when next seen.

- The Park City race came back modestly closer favoring.

- The Sprint and Donn came back fair for all from our perspective.

13 Feb 2013 3:02 PM
Pete Denk

Santa Anita

Race 1 3:30 ET

Maiden Cal-breds (One mile turf)

9 Waitwaitdonttellme (5-2 ML odds) flashed some nice ability finishing third at this level on January 6 in his turf debut and second career start. He’s got a nice turn of foot and is on the improve. He came home in :23-flat last time, and the presence of stretch-out speed ( 1 and 10) should produce some pace for him to run at.

Odds: 1.70

Result: Checked back and in traffic, could only rally wide for 6th. Underlay in retrospect but I do think this one will clear the  condition.

13 Feb 2013 3:05 PM
Plod Boy Phil


Perhaps they scratched for a better spot in 2014

13 Feb 2013 3:08 PM

The Hernandez brothers, Brian Jr. and Colby, will have the mounts on Departing and Sunbean, respectively, when part of what is shaping up as a terrific field for the 1 1/16-mile Risen Star, with one of the Todd Pletcher arsenal, Palace Malice, being another notable. Other known prospects at this early juncture include Code West, Golden Soul, Mylute, Oxbow, Proud Strike, and maybe Normandy Invasion.

13 Feb 2013 3:21 PM
Plod Boy Phil

GP 7th -

Now that's what we call a ZipFest....

13 Feb 2013 3:48 PM
Karen in Texas


I agree the Risen Star is shaping up to be a most interesting race; can't wait to see Rosie on Palace Malice and Gary Stevens on Proud Strike!

13 Feb 2013 6:28 PM

wow.....worst day in long time.......i agree with predict....this game is fixed!!!!lol.......

13 Feb 2013 10:55 PM

PBP : The question remains...  for all the comments you post on here questioning peoples angles of handicapping, whether it be the track, the jockey, the trainer etc.  Your tool isn't any better than how people pick their horses and you need to accept that fact.  Flow is no different than say, beyer figures, except more people trust beyer as it's been used for a long time.  I'm not a fan of either beyer or the flow tool.   I see your cheerleader has come online to help you.

You're great at ignoring question that you have no answer to, that's why you want me to email you personally.  What is RacingFlow's win/loss record this year ?  It's a simple question, similar to what you nag Pete about with his smart plays.  

13 Feb 2013 11:02 PM

Karen in Texas :  I'm excited about the Risen Star as well, not so excited that Rosie went with Palace Malice instead of Mylute but they're both my horses and will play both on top of all my bets.  I hope Miguel Mena or James Graham rides Mylute.

Proud Strike is interesting - Steve Haskin got me to look at this horse, will probably run at a nice price too.  I get a sense you'll probably play him.

predict : Forgot to post my reply to your link, I read it and yeah, that does sound suspicious lol.  Now you'll make me watch his non-stakes races closer...thanks!

13 Feb 2013 11:29 PM
Little Bill

I like Proud Strike also but, Gary Stevens doesn't help the price. I'll be pulling for Code West as I played him in book one.

13 Feb 2013 11:55 PM

JayJay- If Pete chooses to post this you will read it.  If he chooses not to post this, then that is his decision.  Your harassment of Phil is obsessive.  That you have no comprehension is incredibly evident.  That you inevitably have to say something negative about anything he posts is sad.  The fact that you can't even take him up on his offer to e-mail him somewhere other than here so that it doesn't take up Pete's blog is impolite.  When you're mature enough to realize that, then maybe you will move on and concentrate on what you do and not worry about what he does.  I don't agree with harassment.  If that makes me a cheerleader than so be it.  I have also stood up for Coldfacts.  When you realize that you have no interest in what Phil does, just an interest in being negative about everything he posts, then maybe you will stop.  But I doubt it.  I'm sure you will have another full-of-yourself response for me.   This will be my last to you.

14 Feb 2013 12:35 AM

O’Neill starts Mudflats in Sunday’s $150,000 San Vicente Stakes for 3-year-olds over seven furlongs. As of Wednesday, the projected field of six consists entirely of maiden race winners seeking their first stakes wins.

Mudflats, seventh in the Grade 2 Jerome Stakes at Aqueduct on Jan. 5, will make his first start in California in the Grade 2 San Vicente. A gelding by Tapit, Mudflats won a seven-furlong maiden race at Aqueduct in his third career start.

Trainer Bob Baffert will have three runners – Belvin, Shakin It Up, and War Academy. Belvin and War Academy have not started in stakes. Shakin It Up was third of five in the Grade 3 Hollywood Prevue Stakes in November.

The field also includes the speedy Caballo del Cielo and the highly regarded maiden race winner Treasury Bill. Wednesday at Betfair Hollywood Park, Treasury Bill worked a half-mile in 49.20 seconds.

14 Feb 2013 1:06 AM

Footlick :  Please go through the last 2 blogs and count how many times Phil has posted and how many times I have posted.  Also, while you're at it, please also read how many times Phil has "educated" people regarding their comments...then come back to me about harassment and being mature.    You're so blinded by your admiration that you refuse to see his posts about him being mystified or surprised or amazed as to people's way of handicapping and always tries to interject how his tool is much more superior.  He brushes aside people's responses as if it didn't merit any response because it goes against his flow system.  You refuse to see that...

I'm not obsessed with him as much as you are obsessed with me posting to him.  He chose to use this blogsite to sell his product, he posts his opinions here and unless Pete says otherwise, everyone is welcome to comment on his post, heck, he comments on pretty much everyone's post but again, you don't see that...  (see his last "convo" with JerseyBoy)

Thank you for your last post.  Unfortunately, I can't promise this will be my last post to you.  I'm sure you'll have some interesting posts in the future besides cheerleading for Phil.  You also forgot that I was the only one that paid attention to Phil when he first started posting his racing flow marketing here...I decided after going through his site and talking to him more about it that it wasn't worth a penny.   I never claimed to be an expert on anything, I enjoy reading people's posts here and yes, that includes yours (well, not the cheerleading ones.)

14 Feb 2013 1:07 AM
Little Bill

That must have been the halftime show. Not bad.

14 Feb 2013 1:13 AM
Little Bill

I have also seen Phil's Info. and to comment on it's worth is, well, that's just an opinion.  His system will allow the user to uncover horses that have good value. I think thats been proven. I think it could help exotic players the most. I don't need someone to tell me a 2,3,4,5-1 looks like he could win. I can see that.

14 Feb 2013 1:53 AM

Fortify finishes 6th in the UAE 2000 Guineas.

14 Feb 2013 11:08 AM


“Proud Strike is interesting “

Proud Strike PP:

10/28/2012 - CD, 7F (TIME: 1:23.84   TRACK: Fast); Finished 3rd beaten 19L.

11/24/2012 – CD 1 1/6F (TIME: 1:44.56   TRACK: Fast) Finished 2nd beaten 31/4L

01/12/2013 – FG 1 1/6F (TIME: 1:46.18   TRACK: Fast) won by 71/2L

What exactly is interesting about this s colt? Curlin, Luckin At Lucky and Papa Clem are Smart Strike colts that showed class and none got beat by 19L in any race. I know Mr. Haskin highlighted him but he just does not seem fast enough for interest. He was under the whip in deep stretch to break his maiden in a pedestrian time.

Are you anticipating major improvements? What am I missing  about this colt?

14 Feb 2013 12:12 PM
Little Bill

Proud Strike- The breeding is the most interesting part. 1:46 is a concern. All the times out of FG are slow. Granted it's not a strong venue, but.....

14 Feb 2013 4:58 PM

YES.....ive won more money in the kentucky derby, than any other race.....ive always had a good eye for talent......but, it takes more than talent........every year, there is a really good early fav. for the derby...every year! But how many 2yr old champions have won in the last 20 yrs? one? two?.....why is this? You breeding people always think its the distance thing.....the reason is, racing super sharp, for that long, is very, very, rare........horses just cant stay sharp that long! When will you learn? The biggest payoff ive had, on the early wager,was 500 w on champ street sense....why did i bet him? He ran much the best in the juv..yes...but i knew the trainer....he gave him only 2 preps...that were just avg. races...thats the key! YOU CANNOT BE ON TOP OF YOUR GAME IN JAN>!!!    Which leads us to the HUGE MISTAKE people are making.....ITSMYLUCKYDAY....AND OXBOW.....are two examples.........THEY HAVE NO CHANCE! NONE!........they got too good too fast.........go back, and name the derby winners, that improved and fired such big improvements in jan. ...and won the derby!........keep lookin......last year was close.....ill have another was sharp, but really not too sharp....the beauty was the long layoff by the trainer........absolutely. great, smart training job.......once a horse is sharp,like itsmyluckyday, he has to run 2 maybe 3 more great races....too many to pull off!   ASK YOURSELF...why no triple crown winners!   SAme reason.....its too hard to stay sharp that long......RANAG! you like both itsmyluckyday, and OXBOW!!!!!OMG!......RETHINK!!!!!   Everybody!!!!!!!!!!

14 Feb 2013 9:10 PM
Pete Denk

And Street Sense, the horse that broke the Juvenile curse, was a special case.

His Juvenile win was smoking fast, actually fast enough to win the Derby from a speed figure standpoint.

That means he didn't have to take any major forward steps at 3. Trainer Carl Nafzger, a master at getting horses to peak at the right time, knew this.

Nafzger designed a campaign that allowed Street Sense to move forward mentally while peaking again physically on Derby day.

This messed-up Derby points system will probably lead to more than a few horses peaking in their final prep instead of Derby day, as trainers feel the pressure to qualify.

As important as the these early big performances are, the next start is just as important because it tells you if the horse has the fortitude for the Triple Crown.

14 Feb 2013 9:20 PM
Pete Denk

New blog is up for the weekend.

14 Feb 2013 9:21 PM

Coldfacts : Yes, what Steve Haskin posted about this colt which I'm assuming you already saw.  He's interesting to me in this race, none are proven so i'm looking at Proud Strike as possible value play.  I never ever use split times to handicap a horse, I don't care if he went 1:50 in his last race, this is a new race, and horses improves (or not) but I'm most likely going to gamble on him.  So when I say interesting, it always mean I'm looking at the horse to be in my bets.  It doesn't mean I'm looking at him to become a monster from here on forward, just that for this race, he's interesting.  He may not even survive this race if he's not that good and never see him run again but on the flipside, he could be one to watch as Haskin pointed out.

14 Feb 2013 9:34 PM

PETE...........exactly i got 10 to 1 after that juv.performance, i'll never know..........horses like itsmyluckyday just dont win.....some might ask "how about verrazzano or Flashback?" why not throw them out?  Well, they were good from the beginning....itsmyluckyday and oxbow, improved alot..........HUGE DIFFERENCE......those big impr. races DO things to horses...........Thats why its a huge mistake having him #1........he ran better than any horse yes, but NO CHANCE!!!!

14 Feb 2013 10:30 PM

It is always amusing to read opinions about which horse cannot win the Kentucky Derby. The amusement is higher when reasons are given for the conclusion.

After the race is run most people can then say-I told you so. Why? Because even if each horse gives his lifetime best, when the race is over there will be 1 winner and 19 losers.

So I will give my reason why horse X will not win the Kentucky derby. It is because a horse will finish ahead of him.

Who will win? This takes courage. My current choice is Itsmyluckyday. Why?  Because he is an improving horse who has run faster than the rest to date. I have already put my money on him.

15 Feb 2013 9:02 AM


“I don't care if he went 1:50 in his last race”

Oxbow recorded a time of 1:43.30 for the distance en route to an 11 1/2L victory. He was beaten comfortably by Violence in the Cash Call in a time of 1:43.50 on a much faster surface.

Proud Strike was under the whip in deep stretch to break his maiden in 1:46.18 and you are considering him to be competitive in Risen Star against a colt that is running 3 seconds faster.  I am aware it’s a horse race and massive upset can be recorded. Who can forget the 99-1 winner Hero Of Order in the 2012 LA Derby?  

The winning time for the 2012 Risen Star was 1:42.96. This time is 3 seconds faster than Proud Strike’s 1:46.  Golden Soul won a 1 1/6M race at the FG and he got beat by Oxbow by 11L. The slowest winning time for the stakes is 1:45.11 recoded by the19th place finished in the Derby Friesan Fire.

You are very brave! However, go for it as anything can happen as he is from the powerful Mr. Prospector sire line.

NB: Pulpit with Lord At War (Arg) mares: 8 fls, 8 strs (100%), 6 wnrs (75%), 2 SWs (25%).

15 Feb 2013 10:28 AM

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