Capo Bastone: Overrated or underrated?

Capo Bastone will be the latest horse to run back from the 2012 Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) when he goes in race 9, a non-winners allowance, at Gulfstream Park on Saturday.

So far the Juvenile runners have a 9:1-2-1 record on the comeback. Dynamic Sky, who finished a troubled 6th in the Juvenile, won the Pasco and finished 2nd in the Sam Davis (G3), both good efforts. Game Juvenile winner Shanghai Bobby came back to run a fast second in the Holy Bull S. (G3).

But the rest of the run-backs have suggested this was a sub-par running. Juvenile runner-up He's Had Enough has disappointed, as have 4th-place Fortify (6th in the UAE 2000 Guineas) and Title Contender (11th in the G1 Cashcall Futurity). Seventh-place Speak Logistics ran an ok, troubled 4th in the Sam Davis, and last-place Monument ran third in a Cal-bred stake.

Last year's Juvenile was as checkered and puzzling edition as I can recall:

-Eight of the nine horses in the field were racing without Lasix for the first time in their lives.

-The surface at Santa Anita was very quirky. I deemed it a strong inside speed bias, a throwout track for many horses, especially late-closing stamina types.

-The race featured a fast pace but a plodding final 5/16 in :34-1 and a slow final time of 1:44-2.

-With that race shape, a closer absolutely should have won, yet Shanghai Bobby re-rallied on the lead, albeit with the grain of the track bias.

Capo Bastone ran into some traffic on the turn and also reportedly bled in the Juvenile. Despite the great pace setup, he hung in the stretch and finished third. And while it can be argued he ran against a speed bias in both of his two-turn races at Santa Anita, it also could be argued he did not finish his races very strongly, with the exception of his debut (when he got a wicked pace to close into going 5 1/2 furlongs).

Capo Bastone will be making his first start for trainer Todd Pletcher on Saturday. Pletcher does very well with new acquisitions, although he inherited Capo from John Sadler, one of the West Coast's highest win percentage trainers.

Listed at 8-to-5 on the morning line, Capo could emerge as a Derby contender here, but I think he is probably a bet against. I'll lean on Sky Commander and maybe Duke of the City or Taken by the Storm in the late 50-cent pick 4 and/or pick 5, covering Capo Bastone only when keying on price shots in other legs.

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Trainer Bob Baffert has half the field in the San Vicente Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita on Sunday, with Belvin, Shakin It Up, and War Academy. That's a solid trio. I also like the Ron Ellis-trainee Treasury Bill to be closing at the wire in this seven-furlong race, and I will like him even more when he goes two turns

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Best wishes to 2009 Champion three-year-old filly and Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra, who is recovering from surgery to treat a serious colon injury after delivering a Bernardini filly on Feb. 12.

I saw Rachel run in person twice, in the 2009 Preakness Stakes (G1) and in the 2010 Fleur de Lis Handicap (G2). She dazzled me both times with her amazing cruising speed and class.

Rachel broke from the 13-hole in the Preakness, battled the very good sprinter Big Drama into the ground, then held off Derby winner Mine That Bird.

The Fleur de Lis run is a probably a bit underrated. Note the trio of sub-24 quarters early, and the final time of 1:48.78 was about three lengths faster than champion older male Blame ran winning the Stephen Foster (G1) on the same card (and Rachel carried 124 to Blame's 120).

370 Comments

Leave a Comment:

KY VET

NO! NO! NO!.....dont fall for sky commander! He came up to that last race perfect, ran the race of his life! Jump off the ship! It has sailed...........Is capo overated or underrated? BOTH! Off what hes done, nowhere close to being a top contender.....but, thats not a bad thing...he has room to improve....ALW. race? VERY good race likely.......look for him to dominate.......sat....

14 Feb 2013 11:07 PM
KY VET

Whew........that san vicente race is gonna be a great race......very close horses with ability.....cant bet this one....

14 Feb 2013 11:11 PM
JayJay

Yes.. best wishes to Rachel, that news really sucked, it was hard reading that article.  Hope she recovers well and soon.

14 Feb 2013 11:13 PM
KY VET

MANANDO.............could it be? The vet was wrong? Remember, i predicted problems for this colt....didnt like what i saw.......thought i'd see him on the shelf.....hes been working though......many many times, ive posted that a horse would go off form,or on the shelf........im usually right.......lets see on sat........

14 Feb 2013 11:33 PM
JayJay

I'll box Offlee Fast  with Taken by the Storm, Capo Bastone and add Edge of Reality / Duke of the City for the tri and super.

Boxing Belvin, Treasury Bill and Shakin' It Up in the San Vicente

15 Feb 2013 9:21 AM
Pete Denk

The more I look at the Capo Bastone allowance race, the deeper I want to go in the late P4/P5.

15 Feb 2013 10:26 AM
Coldfacts

Pete,

“ Capo Bastone will be making his first start for trainer Todd Pletcher on Saturday. Pletcher does very well with new acquisitions, although he inherited Capo from John Sadler, one of the West Coast's highest win percentage trainers.”

When Mr. Pletcher inherited Sidneys Candy from Sadler, a former Blood Horse operative predicted that he would transform the colt into a monster and it would dominate as a 4YO. It did not occur. The colt performed much better under Mr. Sadler and retired a shadow of his former self. Quality Road was inherited as well and he recorded two NTR. He recorded one under his previous trainer. Quality Road like Sidney’s Candy retired in dismal form and a shadow of himself. A similar faith is predicted for Capo Bastone

Capo Bastone is a graded placed colt and his return in NW2 race suggest the Pletcher high octane has not been working. In addition, his running style will require him to be at his very best to defeat the high cruisers that have good closing kicks.

He is a colt from the powerful Mr. Prospector sire line and is should be capable of some good races unti Mr. Pletcher’s high octane program takes and adverse effect.

I lost on Duke of the City in his defeat to Orb and I think if his return is not too quick this Bernardini colt will be the one to beat.

NB: The CA colt Demonic is also by Bernardini out of a Meadowlake broodmare.

15 Feb 2013 10:56 AM
woodshade

Pete please explain you Tri bet on THS. You have 4 with 5,8 with 9. You think the 5 or 8 will be 2nd but not either coming in 3rd ? Looks like it should be 4/58/58. Don't understand your reasoning for that bet.

15 Feb 2013 11:46 AM
Little Bill

Capo bled in the BC, any concerns about that? Do they loss lung capacity, or is it an individual/ wait and see thing?

15 Feb 2013 12:02 PM
Carlos in Cali

Overrated!

BTW: Demonic will bypass the 7f San Vicente this weekend and will train-up towards the 1 1/16 San Felipe next month.. interesting! Sadler must be very confident in his charge. I think he's got the goods in this one.

15 Feb 2013 12:24 PM
Karen in Texas

Fugue----If he sustained pulmonary scarring from the bleeding episode he could be affected. He was sent to Alamo Pintado for hyperbaric oxygen treatment, but without seeing his medical records, it's difficult to know. I'm sure he'll be racing on Lasix now; so I guess it is a "wait and see" thing.

15 Feb 2013 12:53 PM
Little Bill

Thank you Karen.

15 Feb 2013 1:28 PM
Sam Santschi

Thanks Pete.  Way off topic question: Can anybody recommend a good pair of binoculars for the race track in the $100 range?  

15 Feb 2013 1:28 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Pete -

Would you be kind enough to remove the prior post and replace it with the one imediately following this.  The content is exactly the same, it just reads better as I missed a spacing between the 5 and 6 horses.

Obviously,  this message is not post-worthy.

Thanks in advance.

15 Feb 2013 1:45 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Saturday GP - Race 9

1) Offlee Wild:  impressed us w/ a rare 'vs Zip Win' last out on the turf. The 'VZW' is a volatile sort, often needing 6-8 wks for a return to a top effort. That said, he's dangerous at a price and worthy of inclusion in his next couple.  At the very least, he should adversely impact the other speed.

2) Duke of the City:  gets a very modest downgrade for the pace setting effort under a speed friendly Flow in last.

3) neutral

4) neutral

5) Capo Bastone: was upgraded by us going into the BCJ off two solid efforts on the wrong side of Speed favoring scenarios.  His subsequent downgrade in the BCJ,  along with HHE, Fortify, Power Broker and Dynamic Sky (the 3/5 winner of the Pasco) leaves him with a 'neutral' grade tomorrow.

6) Taken by the Storm: receives an upgrade for the 'Quick to Zip' move into the teeth of a closer favoring Flow. The three that went past him in the stretch that day all closed from more advantageous early positions.

7) neutral

8) neutral

The Play:  Win 6,  Exb 1-6

15 Feb 2013 1:45 PM
Ranagulzion

Rachel Alexandra at her best was truly one of the all time greats ...I hope that she survives her post-foaling ordeal ...been hoping that they would at some point have her covered by Big Drama (that would be a Rasmussen factor offspring inbred to the outstanding broodmare Cap and Bells with plenty of stretch-out speed top and bottom).

On the 3YO front, Capo Bastone is a soup in that Allowance contest, notwitstanding Coldfacts point of view about "high octane".  

Also I expect that Shakin It Up is gonna do just that with the Derby rankings after the San Vincente, shake it up out there in California.

Carlos in Cali,

Good luck with Demonic.  He is ducking the San Vincente because he isn't ready for the big times and wont be until about summer ...typical AP Indy / Bernardini line colt with promise ...remember I told you so.

15 Feb 2013 1:51 PM
KY VET

Coldcuts...pletcher is over 30 percent! You must lose alot of money betting against him.....the same old coldcuts...knock whoever is on top....keep coming up with your well bred, slow horses.......i think you mentioned about 30............who is it you like? Name a trainer you think is better than pletcher.

15 Feb 2013 3:54 PM
KY VET

SAM SANTCHE.......bushnell X800.....it is so powerful, it can see COLDCUT'S last WINNER!!!!

15 Feb 2013 3:56 PM
KY VET

PETE and Plod.........are you seriously thinking capo wont be in the top 2 in this alw race?

15 Feb 2013 3:58 PM
Pete Denk

Woodshade-

In the trifecta bet u refer to, I am wheeling the 9 Dice Flavor in 3rd and in a separate bet playing him in the 2-hole in the exacta.

15 Feb 2013 4:28 PM
Pete Denk

Sam-

I use Bushnell binoculars. Fairly happy with them.

15 Feb 2013 4:39 PM
Pete Denk

Vet-

I could see Capo finishing 2nd or 3rd.

My idea is to try and beat him in the multi-race wagers.

15 Feb 2013 4:41 PM
Plod Boy Phil

KY VET-

Capo is 'just a horse' for me now. You know how simple I am...upgrades only.

If he beats me, he beats me.

Good luck.

15 Feb 2013 5:00 PM
Plod Boy Phil

GP R10

This 8 Ezzthetic is overlayed for me at 22-1.  

15 Feb 2013 5:04 PM
Plod Boy Phil

GP 10th winner -

Nice example of a 2nd time Lasix horse moving past a previously established level after showing little 1st time.

15 Feb 2013 5:11 PM
KY VET

I agree capo is just a horse.....in an alw race........

15 Feb 2013 8:13 PM
Bill Rinker

Thanks for the info. Pete, I'm realy looking forward to this weekend, and it will be nice to see how things shape up. I love Rachel Alexandra, she's all class, and am Praying she comes out of this fine and no worse for wear. Rachel was so determined in her racing career, but I've always wondered if Mine That Bird would have gotten to her if Musket Man hadn't drifted out in the stretch, that really was an enxciting and memorable Preakness.

15 Feb 2013 8:18 PM
Pedigree Ann

Let's have a look at Capo's ped for the Derby.

Street Boss was a sprint specialist, by a World Cup winner out of a family that had produced classic distance SWs in earlier generations. Whence his distance limitations? Probably, his US-bred damsire Ogygian, who got sprinter/milers at best. Will Street Boss sire himself (not good for Derby candidates) or the better-staying 3/4 of his pedigree? Time will tell.

Or can Capo Bastone call on the female side? The sires down the damline are good - Fit to Fight (Handicap Triple Crown), Secretariat, Northern Dancer. Dam won at 8f+ 5 times, SP vs NY-breds. Her first Mizzen Mast was SP at 8.5f at 2 and her Tiznow was a winner going 2-turns, but the rest did their winning at sprint distances. It's not a family littered with black type close up, as the dam was an only foal and her dam was one of only 3. The third dam won an 8.5f turf stakes for non-SWs at Belmont, a one-turn race; she also won 5 of 6 sprint races on dirt.

IMHO, this cross is not likely to produce a genuine 10f horse.

15 Feb 2013 9:24 PM
derbygal

Possibles for the Southwest Stakes:

Will Take Charge

Channel Isle

Always in a Tiz

Big Lute

Brown Almighty

Fear the Kitten

Officer Alex

Super Ninety Nine

Texas Bling

15 Feb 2013 10:24 PM
Sam Santschi

Thanks for the recommendations!

16 Feb 2013 12:42 AM
Coldfacts

Plod Boy Phil,

"Duke of the City:  gets a very modest downgrade for the pace setting effort under a speed friendly Flow in last."

Why not neutral? The colt came off a four months break and was asked to contest a 9F race. Orb who finished 2L behind Violence and had the foundation and fitness advantage had to be hard ridden all the way to keep him reclaiming the lead.  

If he has the class that I think he does, he will win this race handily.

He is A BERNARDINI!

16 Feb 2013 1:26 AM
Coldfacts

Mr. SOS,

"I think you mentioned about 30"

In Pete's previous blog he  highlighted 20 horses. I have highlighted 15. Each persons list will be reduced gradually. It's a part of the process. It is probably too simple for the like of you to understand.

"Name a trainer you think is better than Pletcher."

Just One? Bill Mott

16 Feb 2013 1:32 AM
Mary Zinke

Hopefully, Rachel's recovery goes well. Wishing her a return to full health.

Capo Bastone, overrated as a Derby hopeful.  Not overrated in this allowance race. I'll take the 3, Edge Of Reality.

San Vicente: Going w/the 3 Bafferts Belvin, War Academy, Shakin It Up.

Mac Diarmida: Lucky Chappy, Newsdad, Nikki's Sandcastle, Amira's Prince, if on turf.

El Camino Real: Zeewat, Dice Flavor, Manando, Carving.

Sabin: Royal Delta

Grace Hall, All For Thee.

Santa Maria: Lady Of Fifty.

BC 55.42 !

16 Feb 2013 5:13 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Coldfacts-

The layoff is not part of the process when evaluating 'with' runners,  only 'vs' runners.

The fact is, I left him off the downgrades column on the Saturday Report because his race was close enough to be 'neutral'. That said, neutral runners do not warrant win bets from me and are only used occasionally in empty legs of rolling pick gimmicks or in exactas with an upgrade if no other upgrades are in the race.  

Good Luck.

16 Feb 2013 8:17 AM
Coldfacts

Ranagulzion'

"Good luck with Demonic”

You obviously did not take note of the colt’s debut victory. It was more impressive than that of the hyped Flashback. Did you carefully examine the physical specimen that returned to the winner enclosure? The colt showed efficiency in motion and determination.

He is a very big horse with a lot of ability and he is in the hands of the trainer that developed Twirling Candy and Sidney’s Candy. Demonic does not have to be hidden from any group of colts in CA.

“On the 3YO front, Capo Bastone is a soup in that Allowance contest”

This colt closes from so far back that his chance of winning on the GP surface against good company is remote. The far striding Bernardini colt Duke Of The City has tactical speed and will be cutting back from 9F. His last race was subsequent to a 4 months break. Very few can win at 9F off such a break but he kept the promising Orb honest after surrendering the lead.

Did you see the performance of Pants On Fire? Expect a similar performance from Duke Of The City.

I have come to the conclusion that trainer McLaughin is having problem managing his large stable. Irsaal is a nice colt but cannot be trusted.

I think the bet of the day is Boundless Heart.

16 Feb 2013 9:06 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Coldfacts-

Track and race for Boundless Heart?

16 Feb 2013 9:24 AM
Ranagulzion

Coldfacts,

Did you say that Demonic's debut was more impressive than Flashback?  That is laughable to me.  As a matter of fact I did see Demonic's debut and it didn't strike me as extraordinary, only promising of a Bernardini son with ability to note for the future (summer races IMO).  I'm going to hold your feet to the fire after the San Felipe when Flashback trounces your tout.  You continue to ambivalent about my late development syndrome concerning the AP Indy/ Bernardini line but you have yet to prove me wrong. Carlos in Cali's addiction to the AP Indy/Bernardini line is understandable but not yours.  It is possible for there to be exceptions to the LDS "rule" and I am watching Transparent closely in this regard.

Good luck with Duke of the City (sincerely).

16 Feb 2013 9:43 AM
Coldfacts

Ranagulzion,

None of the horses that Flashback defeated on debut have come back to win a race. Mentor Cane and Appealing Tale best finish since have been 3rd. All the remaining runners have been 5th and worst.

Demonic defeated Tiz The Truth spotting him 4L on the turn. Tiz The Truth returned to win by a mile in hand and is on every Derby list. None of the horses defeated by Flashback are on any Derby list. Del Mar Sunset  who finished 3rd and Major Affair who finished ahead of TTT in his previous start  will be next out winners base on their close finishes to the top two.  

Flash Back 22.05, 45.11, 1:10.03, 1:2309

Demonic 22.61, 45.66, 1:10.24, 1:22.89

The above cold facts provide evidence that Demonic was the more impressive. He defeated a better field in a marginally better time while going 4 wide on the final turn.

Baseless emotional assessments do not supersede the cold facts.

16 Feb 2013 11:12 AM
Coldfacts

Ranagulzion,

"Good luck with Duke of the City (sincerely0"

If you can find his debut race at 5 1/2F you would not be so cynical.

His trainer specified that it was either that race or another one 1 to 2 more months in his stall. He said he is not a sprinter but there were no rout races available. He closed from last on fast Monmouth Park surface to be beaten 3 1/2L in a time of 1:03 and a bit.  

16 Feb 2013 11:18 AM
Little Bill

I'm anxious to see the Duke get a different trip today. He's had front running rail trips. I want to see him set off of them and swing out. Are they off the turf at GP?

16 Feb 2013 11:59 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Fugue-

Sure you've seen by now:  'Off' R5, R7, R11.  

16 Feb 2013 12:26 PM
El Kabong

Going with Manando today at GG. He's ready to bust out big.

Like Sky Commander to hang close enough to a contentious front end today and get them. Think Offlee Fast, Duke of M, and Edge of R will zoom off to lead. One may last but that is when Sky C digs in and steals this one. Using Taking by Storm, Finn and Capo to run behind the speed running second that holds.

4 with 1,2,3  with 567 with 567. Tri and super.

16 Feb 2013 12:43 PM
El Kabong

KVet,

I'm moving to the Bushnell x800. You can't expect to get anymore out of a set of peepers than that. Too funny.

16 Feb 2013 12:45 PM
JayJay

El Kabong : If GP track is the same as yesterday, speed has the advantage on that slop (I actually think it's a wet fast track).  I'm hoping Offlee would sit off just behind the pace and take the lead just before the top of the stretch.  The first race showed it might be playing the same way.

Good luck on Manando, I know you're very big on him.  My longshot is Nina's Dragon but I think Zeewat wins this.

16 Feb 2013 1:11 PM
Mary Zinke

GP r10: 3,4,6,9.

16 Feb 2013 1:14 PM
Little Bill

I was lovin Cool Blue Red Hot at GP 7, 15-1. Now with scratches and if its off, boooo. My wagering co. says it's on.

16 Feb 2013 2:31 PM
El Kabong

Jay Jay,

I agree that the speed has had an extra advantage on top of the one that exists. But if the track is not sealed for the race, a stalker will be in the cat bird seat for this one. He can't be too far off though. Deep closers will not be happy, but alot is going to depend on the track condition. If they seal it before that race, it will be won on front end  probably by the Duke, and I don't think even Sky Commander will stand a chance to catch him. Good luck, and keep an eye on that track.

16 Feb 2013 2:39 PM
El Kabong

Jay Jay,

Pontif damn near stole that one(5th). Again, it they leave it alone, I think Sky will get there. If they seal it again, front end prevails. Hopefully they'll just rake it.

16 Feb 2013 2:44 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Very well done Fugue

16 Feb 2013 3:44 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Congrats to all that had Capo with the overlayed Offlee Wild - JayJay good call with the exacta key.

Stuck to my guns, though I did lose a few additional dollars with a dutch of the two upgrades (15-1 & 8-1) in addition to the 1-6 ex box.

16 Feb 2013 4:47 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Some may be eager to discount Orb's win with the failure of Duke.  Do not be fooled.

In reality, it supports the opinion that the Duke had things easier than the norm when resurgent in the lane last out.

16 Feb 2013 4:50 PM
Pete Denk

Capo grinds out a win over 15-1 Offlee Fast. Not terribly impressive but he could move fwd...

16 Feb 2013 4:51 PM
El Kabong

Pete,

I was impressed with his win today. That is a very speed favoring  track and he did what he needed to do, stay close to the pace and finish. He proved he has what it takes on difficult surface, he'll be tough in the Florida Derby if he goes in. I'm not crazy about his chances for 10F's but that was a heads up race off the bench in a tough situation. I think I'd give FInns Quest a good look going longer next out.

Jay Jay, that pace almost held. Good call on Offlee Fast. Capo will be a force going 9.

16 Feb 2013 5:39 PM
Plod Boy Phil

El Kabomg -

As is often the case,  I saw an entirely different race.  This is almost guaranteed to come back Extreme for Closers,  pending a Bias figure.

To over-simplify,  the opening half in 46.7 and a second half in 54.1 !!  Final 1/16th in nearly 7.3 seconds !  WOW.  Almost a replay of the BCJ.

There is only one horse that ran well and that was the 1 Offlee Wild.

The 7 did nothing more than pass horses that had stopped moving. Capo is still 'just a horse'.

16 Feb 2013 6:06 PM
El Kabong

Plod Boy Phil,

I'll never buy it. If that was a closer favoring track, then why didn't a closer win in any of the races except the 11, when the track had changed to good and trackters had a chance to rake it, not seal it? Totally a speed bias all day except the 11th? How is it that the closers failed in all other attempts except the 11th if that was a closer favoring track? Save it for the subscribers.

16 Feb 2013 6:20 PM
Plod Boy Phil

The fractions relate to the pace.

The Bias relates to all dirt races today.  

I did not say it was a speed favoring or a closer favoring track - it will be a difficult fig to quantify due to the drying out conditions...but we will get it right.

The Flow was Extremely Closer favoring.  That should be easy to understand.  There is simply no other way to view the race from any pace perspective.

16 Feb 2013 6:30 PM
Plod Boy Phil

You are sso bitter for whatever reason,  that you did not even read what I wrote.....'pending a Bias figure".

Need I provide the Websters meaning of the word 'pending'.

16 Feb 2013 6:32 PM
Plod Boy Phil

While we're at it,  using solely the winner to guess at Bias is terribly flawed.

16 Feb 2013 6:34 PM
KY VET

EL KABONG......hate to break it to you, CAPO will be watching the FL. derby from his stall........hope he gets TVG........this horse is not on the derby trail.....he wont be running in the kentucky derby........not even close........

16 Feb 2013 7:37 PM
KY VET

carving looks pretty tough........wp

16 Feb 2013 7:41 PM
El Kabong

Plod Boy Phil,

What method did you use to determine me bitter? I know what method I used to determine a pompous podium when I read  you the first time. Common sense pal.

16 Feb 2013 7:41 PM
KY VET

2 to 1.......MANANDO!.........DEAD LAST! against crap.....right again vet!      

16 Feb 2013 7:48 PM
Plod Boy Phil

El K -

If not for two simple(ton) words,  "out big",  you'd have been the nuts on the Manando prediction.

I assume there's no lack of Bliss in your camp.

16 Feb 2013 7:53 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Pete -

Good read on Dice Flavor.  Did you decide to make it a win bet ?

16 Feb 2013 7:55 PM
Plod Boy Phil

KY VET -

I'd really like to see the connections of Offlee Wild check themselves and not ruin this horse by shooting for the moon. He's got some ability.

16 Feb 2013 7:58 PM
El Kabong

KY Vet,

Don't worry about it, I can handle the news. But unless you have some inside information, I can only assume that when a horse of this caliber gets nominated for the triple crown, gets shipped east to race in Pletcher's Barn, that the owners are pretty serious about giving him a shot, and after that effort, they should. Like I said, IF he decides to enter the Florida Derby, I like his chances, pending the entry of more qualified runners.( I hope the pompous boy was paying attention to that splendid use of pending).

16 Feb 2013 8:11 PM
KY VET

I DO have inside info.....i know the game....i posted and won on capo, but pletcher isnt stupid.....this horse is not a grade 1 horse........you guys .....that race was a weak weak race..............offlee wild can watch the derby with him......alw horses...............

16 Feb 2013 8:21 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Capo won, I am neutral on him, and I dont expect to upgrade him anytime soon,general P has many others in his barn.Vetky he probably has access to TVG at least if he moves closer to the office.

16 Feb 2013 8:26 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Every year, all but a very select few should be watching the Derby.  Not sure which is worse, the negative effect of trying to qualify horses to it or the actual race itself.  

16 Feb 2013 8:31 PM
Plod Boy Phil

KY VET -

I did not actually see a post in which you went 'out on a limb' tabbing Capo as the winner. It was reasonably inferrable, so credit to you for the $5.00 horse.

16 Feb 2013 8:35 PM
El Kabong

Pompous Boy Phil,

Indeed, there is no bliss after that performance but I'll wait to here how the horse is doing before I comment on his race, unlike the sophomores who shout out of the bus window. Can't imagine there is any bliss in your camp either old boy as the names Dice Flavor and Capo Bastone seemed to miss your party as well. Better betting luck next time.

16 Feb 2013 8:43 PM
Plod Boy Phil

KY VET-

re: Offlee Wild

Going out on a limb again I see.  Considering the number of Graded Stakes winners each year,  labelling him as an allowance horse is a pretty safe stance. If he wins an ungraded stake, will that make you wrong ?

16 Feb 2013 8:43 PM
Plod Boy Phil

El K -

Wasn't referring to the race result with the 'bliss' comment.

I had no opinion in the GG race. Yes, my 15-1 runner,  one of two upgrades I posted, did get beat by the $5 horse.  

Perhaps you may want to actually learn some basics about handicapping horses and races rather than rely on the opinions of owners, trainers and jockeys - collectively the worst handicappers on the planet.

16 Feb 2013 8:50 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Dice Flavor rolled a winner in the Camino Real and banked his 10 on the road to the roses.I will borrow a phrase from Vetky and project that this one will be watching TVG the first Saturday in may along with Capo.

16 Feb 2013 8:58 PM
Plod Boy Phil

El K -

Your opinions of Capo,  "a force going 9f",  and of Finn's Quest 'going longer' have been noted. If and when FQ does go longer, what do you think are the chances that the last 5/16th are run in 61.5 seconds ?  Then again,  he had that scenario today and managed to gain no ground from the stretch call on despite the leaders moving just a bit faster than the average stop sign.

Good luck.

16 Feb 2013 9:07 PM
Plod Boy Phil

correction:  make that 35.6 seconds

16 Feb 2013 9:09 PM
KY VET

agree with the chief.....tvg just picked up more veiwers.......ok...i know the race isnt on tvg.....its a joke......like the made up bushnell 800x joke......

16 Feb 2013 9:11 PM
Little Bill

1:48 @ 1 1/16 Obviously the track cond. played into that. Two races latter 30,000clm NWX3 1:46 and 3. I know  they were draging and it was drying, but, that seems like alot.

16 Feb 2013 9:41 PM
Ranagulzion

Coldfacts,

Don't get quiet on me now buddy.  How did you Bernardini colt Duke Of the City fare against Pletcher's "high octane" son of Street Boss, Capo Bstone? (LOL). I told you that "Capo" was a soup but you wouldn't listen.

I warn you again my friend, admire them secretly, not on the blog otherwise they embarass you on the Derby trail, those AP Indy / Bernardini line colts.  Are you ready to back off of Demonic in the San Felipe now?  If you have to tout one let it be Transparent ...he could really be something special ...an exception to the LDS "rule". After responding you an go back into hiding (LOL).

16 Feb 2013 9:41 PM
KY VET

Plod.....dont go overboard.....on a very slow track, the times get extra slower the longer they go...........yes it was slow finish. Just like all the races....capo beat weak horses, with his main rival being eased...the dynamic horse .

16 Feb 2013 10:09 PM
Ranagulzion

Pete,

The Southwest looks interesting. Who do you like? I'll take Brown Almighty to upset the Baffert vs Lukas appplecart.

16 Feb 2013 10:22 PM
Plod Boy Phil

A simple review of the charts for the Saturday dirt races at GP:

- 3 of the 8 dirt races were won by horses in the back half of their fields at the 1st call

- 5 of the 8 runner-ups were in the back half of their fields at the 1st call

- 6 of the 8 show horses were in the back half of their fields at the 1st call.

- There were no races in which the top 2 runners at the first call went on to finish 1-2.

-There was 1 race out of 8 in which the top 2 horses at the first call went on to finish 1st and 3rd.

Without the individual race Flows and the expected amount of closing expected in each race based on those Flows, the data is incompleted.  Even so, there is nothing evident in the charts that screams speed bias to me.

16 Feb 2013 10:26 PM
KY VET

Sorry baffert......should have told you about MANANDO.......i posted over a month ago he would go bad.....people dont believe when i try to tell them......one word........LAYOFF!....WHERES all the people who said manando would improve?........................................................crickets!

16 Feb 2013 10:26 PM
Plod Boy Phil

KY VET -

Capo beat 6 weak horses. The fact that one of the supposed contenders was eased means little to me in terms of the credibilty,  or lack there of,  of the win.

The upgrade goes to Offlee Wild. Downgrades to all others.

16 Feb 2013 10:32 PM
Plod Boy Phil

KY VET -

The anti Manando sentiment, which I clearly remember due to a mind like a steal trap,  would have carried a bit more water had you not hedged ever so slightly on Thursday or Friday.

Apparently Bob felt Manando was doing great.....

16 Feb 2013 10:37 PM
Mary Zinke

Jay Jay, I finally have a couple of tickets that are good enough to meet your tickets, lol. Put $5 across on Dice Flavor, which made up for my dissatisfying other win picks. Other ticket is from last Sunday.

Capo Bastone beat the heck out of my pick, that finished next to last. Bad enough to win in 1:48+ for 8.5f, but to lose that badly?

As I was watching the Santa Maria, I thought, Gary Stevens is going to slow this down just a bit, and win with the sprinter.  I figure most had that super, just wanted the 3rd and 4th place girls to run 1-2. Of course,it paid more with the 1 winning. Stevens will ride in the Derby.

16 Feb 2013 10:55 PM
Mary Zinke

What was that "Could the Vet be wrong?" or whatever about Manando's good series of works. All you said was we'll see on Saturday, after the race(parahrased).  No cheerleading for you by me, for a while, KY, unless you hand over the pom poms willingly. Just send your braggy picks to Jay Jay, like I did, lol.

16 Feb 2013 11:06 PM
JayJay

Mary Zinke : I'm happy for your $5 win on Dice Flavor but he beat me on my P4.  I singled the 7 horse with 1,4,9 and had 4 horses... yep, 4 horse in the El Camino Derby and missed the damn 9 horse.  Good thing the 10 horse lost in the last leg or I would've been poppin' veins everywhere.  I had the 5 and the 10.   I watched his odds early, and then I saw when they ran he went from 20-1 morning to 9-1!  I couldn't go against my 4 horses though as the P4 would be paying decent.  Also  I saw the tickets you posted and went "THAT'S WHAT I'M TALKING ABOUT !"  There's nothing better than betting small to win big.  Winning 10times over your bet is my true definition of winning!

I did have a good day with another one of my really cheap tickets as well lol.  Hit the P3 at SA - race 3,4 and 5.  I was surprised it paid that much.  

www.facebook.com/.../set

El Kabong : Yeah I had the exacta but didn't have Finn, If OF held on, I would've had the P3 and P4.   I think Capo benefited from the slop, not because he was good but because none of the other horses ran on it.   I thought OF was the class of the field (based on watching his previous races) after CB and was surprised that he was morning line 12-1.   I  think TP knows CB is a true sprinter, I'm sure they wanted to see how he'll handle two turns but I hope they saw what most people saw, he's not going to last going over 1mile against the top contenders and that they accept it.  There's nothing wrong with being a champion sprinter.

I'm hoping Belvin runs well tomorrow, I don't expect him to dominate the field.  I want him to run well for his 3 yr old debut.  He's an Empire Maker horse and I think he'll do better as he goes longer.  I think he'll be sitting 2 or 3 from the lead and motoring home at the top of the stretch.  I said in the previous blog, I feel he'll be the top CA contender from Baffert's group come Derby day.

17 Feb 2013 12:03 AM
Mary Zinke

Very nice P3, Jay Jay. Two approx. $20 winners, singled. What made you choose Cee's The Year?  

17 Feb 2013 12:12 AM
El Kabong

Pompous Boy Phil,

Not sure where you got the idea that I rely on owners, trainers and jocks to formulate my handicapping, but then again, your good at making things up.

What was it the scarecrow said, "some people with brains do an awful lot of talking, don't they?  Never was a fan of the man behind the curtain asking strangers in need to "bring me a broomstick and I'll help." These lead up races are part of the fun, but there's only one endgame in sight. I'll learn more from these horses in the next three months because I'll be watching them, not listening to you, or any flow figures or any up/down grades you provide.  And it's not because I'm bitter, I just think Glinda had better advice than the Wizzard.

17 Feb 2013 12:51 AM
El Kabong

Jay Jay,

Was it that sloppy by then? It was sealed, but they ran it, and changed it immediately to good. I have no reason to believe capo can get 10F's but 9F''s is not a reach for this guy. I'll be watching to see where they place him next.  NIce call on Offlee Fast. aka offlee  wild as he is known by some "experts.". He was the speed of the speed and ran tough.

17 Feb 2013 1:05 AM
El Kabong

Jay Jay,

I like Belvin as well. News at eleven.

17 Feb 2013 1:28 AM
JayJay

Mary : I played the jockey, if you look at the field, check the jockeys that are in that race.  The 4th race, I really liked Stevens' horse.  Last race was easy.

El Kabong :  It's possible but note that I said he won't last long going over 1 mile against top contenders.  I think he can win a 9F race against G3 horses.  It was a tough race for him trying to catch OF, but then again, it was his first race of the year.  So yeah, I guess we'll see where he shows up next.   Thanks, yeah, when I was betting him, I kept telling my friends to bet Offlee Wild and they keep asking me what race and what track lol.

17 Feb 2013 1:32 AM
Plod Boy Phil

El Kabong -

Perhaps it was due to multiple references that referenced trainer comments,  owner's confidence, and particularly the most recent in which you wrote, "I'll wait to hear how the horse is doing".  Owners, trainers, and jocks have no perspective when it comes to their horses.  See Dutrow's high opinion of Big Brown heading into the Belmont and countless other similar views by top trainers prior to implosions from their horses that were 'doing well' (Manando, etc, etc).

As for makiing stuff up,  any rebuttle or back pedaling to the comment, "How is it that the closers failed in all other attempts except the 11th..." folowing a quick review of the charts I provided?

And yes,  my mistake for multiple references to Offlee Fast as Offlee Wild.  

17 Feb 2013 7:19 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Pete-

re: FG Turf

Are you able to shed light on what is going on in N.O.?

I imagine that if there was a genuine problem, the racing secretary would not be carding and filling turf racees.

I'm very interested in Hurricane Krystal in the 4th today.

Thanks.

17 Feb 2013 8:37 AM
Plod Boy Phil

re: OP 7th

Title Contender, the early pacesetter in the BCJ and an early pace factor in the CC Futurity,  shows up in this Alw1x.  Each of those races was under Closer favoring scenarios. He removes the blinkers today as the 2-1 ML favorite.

17 Feb 2013 8:56 AM
Coldfacts

Ranagulzion,

My dear colleague I was positive you would have some choice words for me after Duke of the City’s 4th place finish in the slop on Saturday. The 3-1 choice got involved in a 46 half mile and got tired. He had no excuse as the colt he was tracking went on.  Did he dislike the track? I cannot tell but it could have been a factor. I would reserve judgment until his next start on a fast track.

On the subject of LDS, are you aware that DOTC has not been off the board in 4 starts with his worst finish being his 4th place on Saturday. Both the second and third place finishers have finished off the board and the winner finished 4th twice.

If DOTC is impacted by LDS then those that have finished off the board must be impacted by some other syndrome.  You have theorized that A P Indy sire line horses are impacted by Late Development Syndrome. His sire Settle Slew and dam sire Secretariat were Champion 2YOs and he won three races as a 2YO. From what part of his line did this LDS emerge?

Tempera won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (Fillies); Aptitude was runner up in the Derby; Rags To Riches wonthe KY Oaks and Belmont; Bernardini won the Preakness; Friesan Fire swept LA’s three Derby Preps; Stevie’s Wonderboy won the Breeder Cup Juvenile; Ice Box won the FL Derby and was 2nd in the Derby. Nehro was 2nd in the Derby.A P Indy’s sons and grandsons have sired numerous first out winner and champion 2YOs. Your claim continues to be baseless, yet you chose to persist with same.

The cold facts do not support your theory. You are again being issued a Cease and Desist Order.

17 Feb 2013 9:08 AM
El Kabong

Pompous Boy Phil,

Even your numbers are skewed to view the world you want. There were eight races. I stated no bias in 11th. Bun in the other 6 of the other 7 races, unless you were with in 2 lengths of the lead or on the lead by the first call, you did not win the race. That is a front end bias in my world. I see how you came up with your numbers looking at charts but watch the race old boy. When a horse is 5th  in a 10 horse field but only two off the lead, he is on the front end-Watch the race before you claim a horse like Jordan's Image was in the back half of the field at the first call. Same with Emolient. Every winner of the first six races on dirt was within 2 lengths of the lead or on the lead by the FIRST CALL and 3 of those were on the lead by the second call. Capo bastone was off by 3 1/2 at the first call, 2 1/2 by second and second by a length at the 3/4. There will be no "back peddling" needed by those who take more than a simple(ton) look at the charts.

17 Feb 2013 9:21 AM
Coldfacts

Ranagulzion,

Footbridge the highly regarded Street Cry colt runs today at SA in a MSW over a mile.

I have taken a lot of heat for highlighting this maiden and will no doubt be flogged like a rented mule if he is defeated again.

He will run without Lasix. He recorded a bullet 58 and a bit heading into the race and Mr. Gomez seems to be a permanent fixture. Anything less than an impressive performance will be disappointing. The  race will be competitive as field contains some talented 3YOs including the deep closer Major Affair who finished ahead of Tiz The Truth two races back.

His sire and dam sire secured Time Form ratings of over 130. Any major inheritance from those two must be a big plus. I wish him a good break and a trouble free trip.

I am sure Plod Boy Phil down graded him after his last start.

17 Feb 2013 9:24 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Coldfacts -

No, Footbridge is not a downgrade. The race was 'neutral' for both Flow and Bias,  aka 'fair for all. He and Syndicated are relegated to being 'just horses'.

Moments ago, I posted a comment on the Maiden watch Blog (unlikely it shows up for awhile).  I am interested in only Colburn who had the impossible task of chasing the lose leader in an Extreme Race for Speed last time.  That extra race and the addition of blinkers may help him narrow the margin between him and his common foes from Jan 18th.  If so,  he'll do it at robust odds.

17 Feb 2013 9:57 AM
Pedigree Ann

It has come to this - G2 status and $90K is on the line for n1x runners today at Santa Anita. There are too many stakes races for the population of horses we have today! And too many phony G1s and G2s.

17 Feb 2013 10:41 AM
Coldfacts

Plod Boy Phil

"He and Syndicated are relegated to being 'just horses'"

I am not familiar with the jargon use in your system. You have probably explained the above previously and I might have missed same. I would appreciate the meaning of in the classification.

"I am interested in only Colburn who had the impossible task of chasing the lose leader in an Extreme Race for Speed last time."

Subject to correction, his last race was against Tiz The Truth. The fraction were 24, 48, 12. If he was incapable of toughing TTT, how is he expected to trouble a colt that recorded splits 2 second faster for 6/8 of a mile?

"That extra race and the addition of blinkers may help him narrow the margin between him and his common foes from Jan 18th"

His significant common foe worked  58 heading into the race. The addition of head gear will only help if Footbridge and Syndicated have made no improvements since their last meeting.

He lacked finishing speed in both starts and blinkers will only get him closer to what is expected to be a contentious pace. He is likely to be fried.

Could your interest be misplaced?

Major Affair has to be more interesting with the additional real estate.

17 Feb 2013 10:48 AM
Coldfacts

Plod Boy Phil

"He and Syndicated are relegated to being 'just horses'"

I am not familiar with the jargon use in your system. You have probably explained the above previously and I might have missed same. I would appreciate the meaning of in the classification.

"I am interested in only Colburn who had the impossible task of chasing the lose leader in an Extreme Race for Speed last time."

Subject to correction, his last race was against Tiz The Truth. The fraction were 24, 48, 12. If he was incapable of toughing TTT, how is he expected to trouble a colt that recorded splits 2 second faster for 6/8 of a mile?

"That extra race and the addition of blinkers may help him narrow the margin between him and his common foes from Jan 18th"

His significant common foe worked  58 heading into the race. The addition of head gear will only help if Footbridge and Syndicated have made no improvements since their last meeting.

He lacked finishing speed in both starts and blinkers will only get him closer to what is expected to be a contentious pace. He is likely to be fried.

Could your interest be misplaced?

Major Affair has to be more interesting with the additional real estate.

17 Feb 2013 10:48 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Coldfacts -

I got it the first time...lol. Hate when that happens.

In the racing flow world there are upgrades, neutral runners and downgrades.  As a purist,  I choose only to wager on upgrades. While many find this simple,  it has proven very effective for me and my co-founder.  By doing so,  we avoid the seemingless endless process of attempting to decipher which horses to bet to win, which to include in exactas, rolling gimmicks etc.  It also assures that our good results mean tickets not diluted by horses thrown in out of fear of being 'wrong'. Additonally, due to the fact that many of our upgraded runners look 'bad' to the most others in the pools, we often cash horses at big odds.  This is the nature of the par-mutual game,  finding runners that are better than they look to the masases that pour money into pools based on traditional factors.

We believe that there is only favorable spot to be a Speed favoring race.  That position is on the lead.  Thus, any runner a length or more off the pace at the 1st call behind a w-w winner in such a scenario is in the physically and mentally taxing role of chasing a horse that conitnues to 'accelerate' away.  We have cashed many of these, including the back to back $100+ horses on closing day at Hollywood in December. The PPs for each as well as a brief column on the concept are available on the U/A page of the site.

In my opinion, these upgraded efforts provide great stamina builders, more so than any work, though I am partial to the 5f bullet w/in two weeks of a race (and 4f bullets w/in 7 days of a race).  In the case of Colburn, I especially like the subtle move he made in the second quarter,  though had he faded steadily,  the opinion would be unchanged.  You must understand that in the last four years alone,  I have reviewed the RF enhanced PPs for more than 48,000 races,  so these angles and concepts are not without support.

I'll leave the choice to add blinkers up to the trainer, as I must with all decisions the people in charge make with my upgraded horses.

17 Feb 2013 11:17 AM
Coldfacts

Ranagulzion,

My name sake Mr. Palmer will be on show at the Big A today. This Pulpit colt that is impacted by LDS is still a maiden after 5 starts but will put himself in contention for Derby prep after today.  Another colt impacted by LDS will be on show as well.  He is Incognito  a son of A P Indy who is a lazy sort that showed some ability in his last start. He should be a little fitter than Mr. Palmer but they should decide it.

Enjoy the A P Indy  one, two.

17 Feb 2013 12:17 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

JayJay I also like Belvin because he has only raced in 2 maiden events so he was not overtrained in his 2yo campaign towards winning grade one races in his first racing year.Belvin as I posted in reference to breeding onthe other blog is bred similarily to Bodemeister Empire Maker as a sire and the Storm Bird blood on the dam side.BTW Empire Maker's stud fee is listed at 3 million on the PPs.

17 Feb 2013 12:21 PM
KY VET

PLOD boy.....Didnt hedge......was a post reminding everyone what i predicted.....BEFORE the race.....the point was, baffert thought everything was ok........how can I know? And not the trainer? Horses can tell you things, by watching them...................maybe people will believe me on the next one..........................give credit when due!

17 Feb 2013 12:28 PM
KY VET

PLOD boy.....Didnt hedge......was a post reminding everyone what i predicted.....BEFORE the race.....the point was, baffert thought everything was ok........how can I know? And not the trainer? Horses can tell you things, by watching them...................maybe people will believe me on the next one..........................give credit when due!

17 Feb 2013 12:28 PM
Plod Boy Phil

I stand corrected.

Well done KY. Well done indeed.

17 Feb 2013 12:40 PM
Plod Boy Phil

KY VET -

You've help make my point. Good works, cleaning the feed tub, etc do not indicate anything other than the horse is working well (a relaxed, low key environment) and can eat.  Not being sick does not mean the horse is ready to 'bust out big'.

17 Feb 2013 12:43 PM
KY VET

Youre right plod.....as a horse owner and being around horses, you learn, that trainers dont really know alot of times, when horses have problems.....regular fans have a hard time understanding this....the think trainers know everything....or owners know when their horses will win.....horses still cant talk.......

17 Feb 2013 1:01 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Plus,  I imagine that as with their kids, trainers and especially owners rarely see things objectively.  While there may be owners, trainers and jock capable of reading a racing form, trusting their opinions on their own is dubious at best.  There's a reason they call it 'steam'....it evaporates readily.

17 Feb 2013 1:16 PM
KY VET

WHOS BETTER? MR. PALMERS mdn win aqu 3rd........or WICKERSHEIM mdn win gp 2nd?

17 Feb 2013 1:31 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Was hoping the odds would be a little higher for second time out but Big Lute's debut was very professional. Only has a 6f under his belt so the distance is a little iffy but he may be the most talented horse in the field in the SW which on paper isn't that strong of a race with a lot of question marks. I like this horse. I think he's a powerhouse. Sire Midnight Lute will produce all kinds, not just sprinters. Big Lute's stride does not indicate "just a sprinter." 8.5f may be just fine.

17 Feb 2013 1:38 PM
KY VET

TAM race 3 wp #3 ROMANTIC JULIET

17 Feb 2013 1:48 PM
KY VET

TAM race 3 wp #3 ROMANTIC JULIET

17 Feb 2013 1:48 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

I agree that trainers or anyone for that matter does not know anything before the race is run,we are all just guessing sometimes because of experience we know to bet more or less.One thing that I do know is that the long term percentages dont lie so if you play using trainers and you know how to eliminate their low percentage entries from the higher percentage ones you will play at a high percentage for the entire year.When one has a stable that is not winning you gotta switch to another that has his whole barn running to win in that meet.A great meet will probably be followed by an average one, or a mediocre one but thats the way it works they cant stay at that level for the whole racing season.

17 Feb 2013 1:49 PM
KY VET

tam race 3rd out....cooked early

17 Feb 2013 1:51 PM
JayJay

CHIEF : Yeah, hopefully he'll run well in his debut.  I said the same about Palace Malice, lightly raced due to some minor injury last year.  I think Palace Malice will be TP's top derby horse and Belvin would be Baffert's.  Hopefully they both stay healthy and improving.

Coldfacts : How come no mention of Belvin from any of your posts ?  Belvin beat Footbridge by over 5 lengths in his last race and he's a May foal (saw in the other blog you like May foals), Belvin is running in the San Vicente today.  Wanted to get your thoughts on this horse.

17 Feb 2013 1:51 PM
KY VET

AQU race 4 #6 ABA DABBLER

17 Feb 2013 1:53 PM
KY VET

cooked early again....aqu 4th....anyone want a drumstick?

17 Feb 2013 1:57 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Point taken Chief,  but this is not like betting a football game,  in which a high percentage (>53.6%) means a profit.  Win percentage for a handicapper is only important in terms of his average win mutual, if dealing with win bets.  Sim. for exotics or whichever pool is preferred.

17 Feb 2013 2:06 PM
KY VET

gulfstream longshot wp race #4 big screen #4 wp

17 Feb 2013 2:07 PM
KY VET

gp good 2nd.....4.60

17 Feb 2013 2:21 PM
predict

BB,Sunday,Feb.17th, SA R-5, #2 Mywayorthecauseway, 15-1 ML ,lookout for this guy! He is very fast, you'll see.

17 Feb 2013 2:37 PM
KY VET

tam race 5 #4 ROUND TRIP LONER to wake up off 2 avg races.....wp

17 Feb 2013 2:43 PM
KY VET

YESSSS! wire to wire #4 in race 5......3 to 1

17 Feb 2013 2:53 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Have a high opinion of the 5 Camille Grey in the 6th at GP.

17 Feb 2013 3:03 PM
Ranagulzion

Coldfacts,

We've had some in depth discussions on the late development of the AP Indy line in the past, especially with respect to these horses not being ripe for the 1st Saturday in May. The cold facts of history have so far supported my theory, with one exception, Aptitude's runner-up effort to Fusaichi Pegasus in the  2000 Derby. I've stated the observation before, albeit anecdotal, that these types get injured when pushed to make the Derby because their developmental cycle seems to ripen/mature them in late spring or summer. Each year they fail and all you can produce is excuses to cover your embarassment ... you haven't named a Derby winner among them yet my friend.  Mr Palmer will add to the statistics unfortunately for you.

you should know that the genotype is more complex than simply the pedigree of the sire and dam. AP Indy and his offspring are very different from both his sire Seattle Slew and his dam Weekend Surprise.  

17 Feb 2013 3:30 PM
Karen in Texas

Dr. D and Others----For those of you wagering on the Southwest Stakes and races at Oaklawn tomorrow, the forecast is for 80% chance of rain in the P.M. and some severe thunderstorms in the Hot Springs area.

www.weather.com/.../Hot+Springs+AR+USAR0276:1:US

17 Feb 2013 4:19 PM
KY VET

santa anita race #3 people like #8 HANDSOME DENNIS....i dont like the way he looked during his only race....think he may have problems......STILL WIDE OPEN RACE....ill watch....

17 Feb 2013 4:32 PM
KY VET

HOW ABOUT ANOTHER LAST PLACE FINISH!.....handsome dennis....o'neil...............showed me very bad signs last and only race....but had fastest time......OFF FORM TODAY!

17 Feb 2013 4:40 PM
KY VET

sa race 4 #5 always a chance wp

17 Feb 2013 5:02 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Good call VET but the biggest question is why was that one being bet?  Betting a horse with gate woes in their debuts is always dicey until proven otherwise.  Add in the fact that he closed modestly into a 7 second final 1/16th.  Perhaps it's "that he closed fround so a longer distance will be better" mentality.  Sounds familiar...

17 Feb 2013 5:06 PM
KY VET

gg race 4 #8 love you so

17 Feb 2013 5:19 PM
KY VET

love you so.........wire to wire, went too fast...didnt matter....5/2.   winner gg

17 Feb 2013 5:23 PM
KY VET

Plod...you might not have liked handsome dennis....but that doesnt explain last place finish.......problems.....

17 Feb 2013 5:26 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Im inclined to agree with you PBP on the football analogy never bet a full season though I made picks on all the games competing against a neighbor in a friendly wager.Had winning record 2 out 4 seasons,but I found an angle that worked those two seasons and had a losing record the two seasons it didnt work.

In playing the horses I start with a high percentage angle in the win,place,show pools but where I increased my bankroll by a multiple was because I bet exactas and have an angle that worked for an entire year in 2010.I bet exactas but cover my wagers with win,place and show wagers.

17 Feb 2013 5:27 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

BTW PBP just to be sure we are on the same page, I mean betting with the spread in my post about making picks for the NFL

17 Feb 2013 5:28 PM
Plod Boy Phil

SA 5th coming up

Good luck Predict.

With no malice intended in any way, the 1 is the only downgrade for us in the race  Very surprised he's bet down to 6-1 - makes disliking him even easier.

'They' hate my horse, Colburn.  Perhaps it's partaily due to the failure of Misdeed in the 3rd.  No worries here as the price is right.

17 Feb 2013 5:33 PM
KY VET

SA race 5....i wouldnt bet footbridge....but looks great on paper.....tough to beat him but1, 7 or 8 might upset...ill go with #1 to fly late.....wp major affair

17 Feb 2013 5:35 PM
JerseyBoy

Prediction.

Footbridge will win a maiden race soon.

17 Feb 2013 5:42 PM
KY VET

sa race 5....race wasnt very strong, considering the talent.....ran about the way i thought.....just couldnt decide on the 1,7,8.....unimpressed by all...

17 Feb 2013 5:44 PM
Plod Boy Phil

At the risk of being drawn and quartered,  the DG was the 2,  who closed with a severe closer bias on Jan 21.  Doesn't much matter really.

Nice race by the top 2.  Kind of hard to believe Footbridge is still a maiden.

17 Feb 2013 5:46 PM
KY VET

gg race 5 lonshot wp #2 moonray

17 Feb 2013 5:50 PM
KY VET

darn 2nd at gg at 11 to 1......exacta and place not bad...damn chalks!

17 Feb 2013 5:53 PM
Kevin

I'm laying off the horses for a while.  

Two weekends in a row, I have the GP Pick 6 with 50 yards to go, only to get beat at the wire.  last week, was singled to the 11, got beat on the wire by the 5.  

Today, had the 1 and 3, got beat at the wire by the 12.  

I know I wouldn't have gotten the rainbow in either case, but can't handle the "almosts."  

17 Feb 2013 5:54 PM
Plod Boy Phil

KY VET-

How about a Late P4 at SA?

I have one that I bet (really, I did). It's $9 for $0.50:

2 x 3 x 1 x 3

I'll post Leg 1 with a couple minutes to post.

17 Feb 2013 6:02 PM
KY VET

ill try a little upset sa race 6...gary stevens show speed today...#1 just fishing......wp

17 Feb 2013 6:08 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Used the 1 and 6 in Leg 1.  Late getting it posted - phone call.

I'm out.

17 Feb 2013 6:12 PM
KY VET

really? 2nd place gary......8 to 1...........grrrrrr!

17 Feb 2013 6:12 PM
Pete Denk

Coldfacts' and Darley's Footbridge is still a maiden after running well but not good enough in SA5.

17 Feb 2013 6:19 PM
Plod Boy Phil

No doubt - bad beat for me.  We had two upgrades (1,6) and two downgrades (2,5) from the common race.  Thought Gary may have gone a bit soon,  but that's racing.

17 Feb 2013 6:21 PM
KY VET

had san vincente cold exacta....2/6...but loved treasury bill...........treasury bill is a monster......great effort! pace was slow............very impressed...thought 2 would win because he was running faster.....bill has caught up......

17 Feb 2013 6:45 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

San Vicente just ran good race mid stretch looked like the whole field had a chance to win but Shakin It Up excellerated at the right time to edge Treasury Bill.Belvin ran fast early but couldnt maintain lead, am I surprised no,I didnt have a strong opinion, so watched the race much like I would any other sporting event without money wagered, but only had to wait 1 minute twenty two seconds for the outcome.

17 Feb 2013 6:58 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Well done KY -

Very nice stepping stone for Treasury Bill.

Leg 3 was the impossible P4 single, 8 Crestatore.

17 Feb 2013 7:08 PM
JayJay

KY VET : Pace was slow ?  What race were you watching ??  They went :22 and :45.

I have no idea why Bejarano went for the lead like that, I knew he was toast at the half mile, was just hoping he would hang on for 3rd for my trifecta.  Looks to me, they used him as a rabbit for the 2 horse.

17 Feb 2013 7:19 PM
Ranagulzion

Coldfacts,

Is your selection for the Southwest Texas Bling?  If so, he does have a good shot at completing the exactor behind Brown Almighty ... I like him in there. That race looks like a knotty affair as Bob Baffert doesn't ship Super Ninety Nine for fun and D. Wayne Lukas is coming to play hard ball with Will Take Charge and late running Channel Isle.

17 Feb 2013 7:20 PM
Plod Boy Phil

The splits were actually 22.9, 45.6.  That is a whole lot different than 22 and 45.

Relative to the 'average' the splits were slower than those expected at 7f on the SA dirt.

The 1st Q was -.30,  the half was at -.35,  the three quaters was at -.26,  but the final time was +.6.  

Have to check a final figure,  but Treasury Bill,  widest of all,  ran large.  The win deserves full credit as well.

Was bit surprised by the effort it took the 1 to reach a cruising speed while the 4 appeared to be going easily down the backside.

Both were just horses.  

17 Feb 2013 7:37 PM
Ranagulzion

KY Vet,

Treasury Bill a monster? What race were you watching? (LOL) Shakin It Up was much the best my friend. On pedigree TB could be a good Belmont stakes proposition but right now nothing more.

17 Feb 2013 7:39 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

KYVET(VETKY) I think some of these will be going to the bigger preps down the road especially top two, and not watch on TVG or NBC. I dont see any monsters yet, will have to be scared a lot more to consider them as such.

17 Feb 2013 8:01 PM
KY VET

JAY JAY....those are really good horses.....you say 22 45....its a big difference...22.88 is almost 23....at sa...45 3/5......watch the race, youll see the jock on caballo hold, and rate him....everyone was close going into turn....bill ran great race to get up to leaders going wide................maybe plod boy can tell you the diff between 22 and 23..........huge difference.....it took a huge performance to lose by just a little................but then again..you dont even use a form.....you guess..........your point is.....everyone is wrong, but you dont even use any knowlege.....why not play the lotto?......

17 Feb 2013 8:10 PM
longwaytomay

Ranag,

I thought Treasury Bill ran a very good prep race today. Prep being the key word. Treasury Bill is now headed to Arkansas for the Rebel.

17 Feb 2013 8:11 PM
KY VET

When youve seen as many races as i have.....you can tell by watching a race, if the pace is fast, or if the time of race was fast.....you can see, if there are gaps separating the runners, or if they are bunched together......if there is 5 horses at the wire, its almost always a slow time........

17 Feb 2013 8:14 PM
Plod Boy Phil

VET -

I already put it into perspective for him, and anyone else inspired to type the phrase,  "what race were you watching?"

17 Feb 2013 8:15 PM
KY VET

RANAG.....treasury bill is on my derby top 10,,,,,shakin is not.......i told you, i had exacta cold.........shakin had 3 races faster than bill.........i won.........now im on bill next time.............HERES A NEWS FLASH! The derby is in over 2 months......bill wasnt ready yet....now he stretches out.....get it?  And you say the baffert horse ran better? are you sure? What if i told you bill ran alot farther? doesnt matter? what if by traveling farther, he actually ran faster?   You have the CLEARLY/OBVIOUSLY coldcuts disease..........how about BOTH ran great?

17 Feb 2013 8:22 PM
KY VET

BREAKING NEWS!!!!!!!!!! Footbridge is STILL a maiden.........updates to come............

17 Feb 2013 8:25 PM
JayJay

PBP : My bad, .9 and .6 millisecond is a "whole lot different" lol.

I see now you're blaming the jockey for your failed P4 ticket.  I'm not sure but I thought you said jockeys are never a factor in races.  Wait, yeah you did, Rosario's ride on Animal Kingdom.   So basically, you're saying that Gary waiting a few seconds longer, would've have won that race ?

17 Feb 2013 8:31 PM
KY VET

.9 seconds is 4 lengths.....after a quarter mile? Thats tons.........dont embarrass yourself jay2

17 Feb 2013 8:57 PM
KY VET

shhhhhhhh......be very quiet.......we can beat superninety.........ALWAYS IN A TIZ or BIG LUTE?.......tough decision........what are your thoughts?

17 Feb 2013 9:01 PM
JayJay

KY VET : .6 and .9 is hardly a "big" difference.  I'm sure it's helped you a lot handicapping races judging by how you're doing today.  I posted two bets on this blog and both hit the exacta.  You posted you had the San Vicente exacta cold AFTER the race and the other bets you posted didn't pan out.  Yeah, that form reading is doing you good...but don't change a thing.  You and PBP should continue to handicap the way you've been handicapping, please don't change! lol

17 Feb 2013 9:02 PM
Mike Relva

Ranagulzion

Did you hear what Ron Ellis stated prior to the race? I'm thinking he's happy with TB's performance.

17 Feb 2013 9:13 PM
Plod Boy Phil

JayJay -

The time differences I presented are measurments in 10ths of a second,  not one hundreths or one thousanths..... Thus .3 is 3/10ths,  which is 1.5 fifths, which is approx. 1.5 lengths.  Slower than norm internal splits that result in a final time roughly 3 lengths faster than the norm is a race that should be won by a horse on or very close to the lead.  The winner was a stalker and gets credit for his performance.  The runner-up,  Treasury Bill was even more impressive considering his 4+ wide trip on the turn and the fact that he closed so much ground in the final portion of the race despite the scenario that unfolded.  As stated earlier, I'll wait for our figure to come out on Tuesday before making final judgements.  That said,  I know who I do not want from the race.  Belvin.

I did not blame Gary for the loss in Leg 1.  I did see what on the track was a 'Quick to' move.  That means,  a stalker or presser went to the lead in or coming out of the turn and was subsequently run down from behind by a deeper closer.  If the race comes back closer favoring by our figures,  the horse will have two upgrades and I'll be on him again.  If not,  then he gets relegated to 'just another horse' status (neutral).

As for the P4,  while the Leg 2 upgrades ran 1-2,  my 32-1 single in Leg 3 was never a factor.

17 Feb 2013 9:27 PM
Mike Relva

KY Vet is correct, with the Derby over two months away anything can happen. Can anyone say TB ran a bad race today? I think not.

17 Feb 2013 9:29 PM
Plod Boy Phil

KY VET -

No opinion in the Southwest tomorrow,  thus I will not be involved.  I think Dr. D's selection Big Lute,  posted here several hours ago,  deserves consideration, if for no other reason gthan the fact that his daddy is smokin' hot.

17 Feb 2013 9:34 PM
Plod Boy Phil

JayJay -

One more thing for those hard of reading comprehension.  I did not criticize the Rosario ride. I did take exception to the opinions of a few that it was masterful or great. I stated that it was just a ride.  

17 Feb 2013 9:36 PM
JayJay

PBP :  Right, OK.  I stand corrected.  I must've been thinking of someone else who posted that jockeys are not a factor in the races...but I'm not going to go back to previous blogs to see who it was.

KY VET : I did like Big Lute but now that you have him on your sight, I probably won't play him as you'll load up on him and he'll probably run at 1/9 just from your bet.  I'm going with Rosie, Fear The Kitten, this horse just might be good enough against this field.  I just think Rosie have a way with horses, she can make them run.   Boxing him with Will Take Charge, don't think S99 will be hittin' the board but if he does, I'll take the beat.

17 Feb 2013 10:14 PM
KY VET

I actually think always a tiz should run good............jay jay....how do you know who you like? Did you get the dice....or dart board out?     How can anyone take a guy that doesnt even get a form seriously?...................

17 Feb 2013 10:46 PM
Ranagulzion

Plod Boy Phil 17 Feb 2013 8:15 PM,

(LOL) I saw that swipe heading my way and ducked ...you rascal ...Shakin It Up is coming off a lay off and was not cranked up at all for that race.  "Much the best" means there is no way Treasury Bill will finish in front of him in any race between now and Derby day ...take that to the bank.

KY Vet,

Trust me buddy, I know a monster when I see one and TB aint one ...at least no yet.  These type of horses are not your everyday allowance or caiming types ...you dont have that great a record on these blogs handicapping Graded stakes races ...I've been watching. You can learn from me about these types Bro.  

17 Feb 2013 10:49 PM
KY VET

Ranag.....not sure what you mean...By saying monster, i dont mean best horse ever.....what are you saying? shaking is much better than bill? Dont you love itsmyluckyday? and oxbow?....wasnt this a 7 furlong race?  Not really sure your point..............And im known for my betting on graded races...............i guess im gonna have to prove it again......

17 Feb 2013 11:26 PM
KY VET

Geez....any luv for ROYAL DELTA?..........CAN i call her a MONSTER?

17 Feb 2013 11:55 PM
Mary Zinke

Nothing about Royal Delta here?  There was still money to be made, if you put your Dice Flavor winnings on her.  

17 Feb 2013 11:58 PM
JayJay

KY VET : I already stated why I like my pick.   Unlike you... Always a Tiz today, Big Lute tomorrow morning, then after the race, you'd post you had the winner and the exacta lol.   How about you post which horse you're actually going to bet and then post what your exacta bet will be BEFORE the race.  Show me how it's done...

18 Feb 2013 12:03 AM
tom mallios

please do not take the following comments as anything but complimentary to todd pletcher and bad news for the rest of the industry.todd finally got it.note that due to his army of studs on a yearly basis for the derby.he has changed his M.O. ,he no longer empties the tank on prep races.trying to win everyone of them.note how conservative he is with all of his top 3 yos'.to a horse he has plotted it out that the derby will be their 3rd race of the year.more often than not,that is when they fire their best shot.he is basically using the first race as the conditioner,be it he is still trying to win.the 2nd race will be the tightener.look at overanylize and violence.both are still in the barn and it is almost march.in the past ,both would of run twice by now.todds' well desrved success has afforded him the luxury to chase the brasss ring and roses,as opposed to racking up dollars in the preps.to the industry,just pray that todd does not use this theory in pursuing breeders cup races.as long as he keeps trying to win all the stakes races.you at least have a fighting chance

tom mallios

18 Feb 2013 12:08 AM
Mary Zinke

I call her My Royal Delta, KY. Sometimes, I call her the chameleon.

If you like "Monster", okay. She just grew up :)

18 Feb 2013 12:46 AM
Coldfacts

JayJay,

Belvin  had to be fully extended to defeat Forrest Boy who was also 5L ahead of Footbridge. Forrest Boy was handily defeated by Footbridge in their next meeting.  If Forrest Boy’s performance against Footbridge in their second meeting is used to measure Belvin’s ability, he does not merit mention at this time.  He is well bred colt that might just be a sprinter in spite of his pedigree.

FOOTBRIDGE:

Yes! He is still a maiden after three starts.  Those who found it necessary to highlight this fact should recognize that he is the only colt in his races that is not juiced. He is being defeated by horses on the performance enhancer Lasix. Does anyone believe that Lasix does not make a difference?  Two colts on performance enhancers defeated him by < 2L. Does anyone really believe they are better horses?

If he had met the fields that Tiz The Truth defeated, would he still be a maiden? Was The Truth on Lasix when he won by 7 3/4L? If those colts were competing without Lasix would they have defeated Footbridge? They clearly have the  advantage in medication category.?

Carl Lewis had no chance against Ben Johnson with his enhancers.

Footbridge will eventually have his day of glory. His connections will eventually recognize the price they are paying for practicing a drug free racing program and make the necessary adjustment to level the playing field.  

18 Feb 2013 6:01 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Coldfacts -

No dig intended here with reference to him being a maiden - sometimes talented horses keep finding someone a little better on that day. His career is just beginning - you may prove correct in time.

As for Belvin, anyone tabbing him as the best of a strong SoCal contingent is genuinely misguided or guessing - both possibilities seem to fit in this case.

Regards.

18 Feb 2013 9:11 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Ranag -

Thanks for taking the 'swipe' as you put it in good fun. Nice duck. It's actuallly possible to have differing opinions w/out name calling.

I like the boldness of your stance on Shakin. We liked him going into the San Vincente (along with War Academy and Trasury Bill), and at this time I have no reason not to like him or the runner-up coming out.

Good luck.

18 Feb 2013 9:20 AM
Coldfacts

Plod Boy Phil,

You obviously do not agree that runners on Lasix have a distinctive advantage over those that are not administered with the product. All The colts in Footbridge's  recent race were on Lasix. Are they all bleeders?

The conclusion that the victor on a performance enhancer is better than the vanquished fails take into account the impact of the enhancer.

18 Feb 2013 10:12 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Coldfacts-

Your opening statement is not true. I've stated my simple views on Lasix. If the first time doesn't bring an improvement past an established level of performance, the second likely will.  I'm just not inclined to look for reasons for defeat unless our Figures indicate something quantifiable about the performance. I'm involved in this game as a bettor five days (or 6 with Holiday Mondays) so no single event warrants a great high and low. My objectivity is crucial for me to provide unbiased 'grading'.

I will not be surprised if Footbridge provides you with moentary rewards, which, in my world,  is all that matters.

18 Feb 2013 10:46 AM
predict

Oaklawn-2/18/13, R=9 "Southwest Stakes" 1 1/16m, dirt:

#9=Channel Isle, the other Lukas

#7=Fear the Kitten, should like track

#10=Big Lute, could be best

Don't think S99 will be part of payoffs, not today.

18 Feb 2013 11:26 AM
Coldfacts

Plod Boy Phil

“I'm just not inclined to look for reasons for defeat unless our Figures indicate something quantifiable about the performance.”

I have accepted Footbridge’s loss and I am not trying to advance any excuses. However, when the margin of victory is a 1/2L, how can the victor on race day drug be considered marginally better? While the victory was in no way marginally, he was fully drugged.

There is no need to quantify the impact of Lasix as all other participants were on the product consequently Footbridge was at a disadvantage.  

How many participants in G1 races surrender this advantage?

18 Feb 2013 11:40 AM
Plod Boy Phil

No opinion in the SW,  but will be playing the 2 in the 10th at OP to blow up the board.

18 Feb 2013 11:45 AM
Ranagulzion

KY VET 17 Feb 2013 11:26 PM

Be my guest and prove it ...forget the "again" part.

Here's current my top ten Derby prospects FYI: 1)Overanalyze 2)Violence 3)Itsmyluckyday 4)Verazzano 5)Flashback 6)Shakin It Up 7)Oxbow 8)Orepass 9)Transparent 10) Normandy Invasion

18 Feb 2013 12:43 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Coldfacts -

Not really sure where the argument here is or why you may feel there is one.

I did not use the word 'excuse' in my response,  as that cause undo and unintended malice.

If the connections have chosen a crusade against legal medications,  then as a fan of the horse,  you should hold your head high,  win or lose.

18 Feb 2013 12:43 PM
JayJay

PBP : I find it funny that your opinions of Belvin gets posted right after he lost.  I've been mentioning Belvin for days before the San Vicente and no comments from you about how this horse.  Yet, after the race, you start posting like you knew he's not a top contender.  How about you start posting your opinions before the races?  I see you posted twice now that you have no opinion on the SW but I'm pretty sure, ater the race you'll have all your "expert" opinion on the winner and losers.  It's really starting to show how much of a joke you are.  I can understand you're desperate for users but man, you have to do it the right way, credibility will take you a long way when you're selling a product.  

18 Feb 2013 12:57 PM
Plod Boy Phil

JayJay -

I owe you nothing.

The opionion of Belvin as just a horse has been reasonably inferred since I downgraded him following his debut.  His subsequent neutral win when defeating my bold upgrade Forrest Boy (all posted here) did nothing more than make Belvin neutral.  My stance on neutral MSW winners is well documented,  especially in the realm of facing horses that have been upgraded when facing better or upgraded off strong MSW wins.  

As you were.

18 Feb 2013 1:26 PM
Plod Boy Phil

JayJay -

My credibility has been documented for four years on the site. If anything I did lacked credibilty, there would not have been 52,000 hits on the site last year (1,000/wk).  There is nothing more transparent than my views, posted upgrades and opinions.

18 Feb 2013 1:29 PM
Coldfacts

Ranagulzion,

Overanalyze and Transparent over Revolutionary? Flashback over Footbridge; Orepass who got beat 11L two start back; One colt from the Mr. Prospector line; Oxbow who defeated a group of turf to dirt colts; Wow! A great list for the disillusioned!

I noticed you did not post a thank you for my AP Indy sire line exacta at the Big A. Incognito is begging for 9F and longer. Can a maiden win the Wood?

The Southwest will have a contentious pace and the should emerge from The Lukas barn

18 Feb 2013 2:38 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Derby List:

1) Orb

1a) Treasury Bill

18 Feb 2013 3:05 PM
JayJay

PBP : lol, 52k hits ?  WOW!!  Very impressive.    I wonder how many of those actually signed up, and if they are, how many are continually subscribing.. all sorts of questions come to mind.  But hey, I'm sure your credibility on your site is intact.  What's the win/loss score this year so far, actually, how about just this weekend's report, what's the tally ?

Who said you owe me anything ?  I comment on your posts just like you comment on pretty much everyone's posts...

KY VET : How many hits do you get per day?  And have you decided which one you're loading up on, Always a Tiz or Big Lute ?

18 Feb 2013 3:07 PM
Plod Boy Phil

For a bit more perspective on the early splits of the San Vincente, $8K claimer Aqua Fever(R10)would have been just over a length back of Belvin at the 3/8s pole ?

18 Feb 2013 3:37 PM
JayJay

That is some pretty darn good perspective.  Someone tell Baffert he needs to drop Belvin down in class lol.  He can kiss the derby dream away on this one.   I guess Aqua Fever is an upgrade if he ever runs against Belvin.  How much do you charge for this information again ??  I'm learning so much...i just might sign up.

18 Feb 2013 4:56 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Tom Mallios have you considered that as a matter of necessity, TP has altered or changed his preparation of his prospective Derby horses because of the NEW Derby qualifying rules.

After it was his mentor DW Lucas that said you cant win it if your not in it.

18 Feb 2013 5:03 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Happy to help.

18 Feb 2013 5:05 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

JayJay I still like Belvins breeding, because I liked Bodemeister on last years derby trail,but I didnt like his last race, and to be honest I wouldnt be surprised if the connections try the same colts that beat him again sometime down the road.After all midstretch all of them had a chance but it was the top two that still had energy to excellerate in late stretch.

Next weekend the 50 pointers start and whoever wins one of those will probably be in the gate for the Derby.

18 Feb 2013 5:12 PM
Plod Boy Phil

re:  Southwest

I've decided to use the closest thing to an upgrade in the race - the favorite, Super Ninety Nine.  

The Hollywood Preview was an upgrade for all those a length or more behind at the first call of the w-w winner in a race very favorable for Speed - thus the upgrade of Shakin It Up yesterday.  Super's last was neutral to modestly upgraded.  Based on both of the above races, I do not think he needs the lead to win.

Since his odds will prohibit a win bet,  I'll hook him up with my 'impossible' upgrade in the last.

18 Feb 2013 5:17 PM
JayJay

CHIEF : Yeah, agree.  I still like him but I didn't like the way Bejarano rode him in that race.  I still think they used him as a rabbit.  If he hadn't gone to the lead, the 4 horse would've been cruising and probably be ahead by 3L at the top of the stretch and that's probably too much for Shakin' to make up.  I'll wait to see where he ends up next.  I just don't think he's an 8K claimer type horse but who knows.  I like Belvin's breeding over Shakin'.

18 Feb 2013 5:26 PM
Pete Denk

Transylavnia Flash, beaten 10 by Big Lute last time, just soundly defeated a field of MSW in OP Race 7. He was stretching out and going 2nd off the layoff, but still flatters Big Lute (who I doubt will be 6-1 as the ML suggests). We'll see soon enough.

18 Feb 2013 5:27 PM
Plod Boy Phil

JayJay -

Do you really think that any trainer would use a horse like that as a rabbit in a Graded stake?  for that matter,  would the owner stand for it or would Baffert do it without the owner's consent. Rabbits are cheap stock placed out of conditions,  not lightly raced three year olds that are supposed to be good.

I just think it was a very bad race by horse.  

Not looking for argument, just a different and perhaps more objective point of view.

18 Feb 2013 5:39 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

In the Southwest3,5,6,10 $1 dollar exacta box.Moderately sure two of these four will come in the exacta after just a quick glance at the PPs.If I had to choose one horse I would take Baffert to continue his mastery at Oaklawn but he will probably be the favorite no value there.If I was playing a contest I would take the 10 he will probably be the highest odds of the 4 in this box but he could be bet down after his maiden score on the same track.The 10 won by 4 3/4 lengths in his debut on the same track at 6f and earned a 99 on Brisnet.

18 Feb 2013 5:48 PM
Mary Zinke

I didn't wager on this. Southwest: Big Lute, Will Take Charge, Texas Bling, Super 99.

18 Feb 2013 6:20 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

The Southwest just ran and the 6 blew the race apart and 2 of my other three were chasers and when one horse blows the race apart longshots usually complete the exotics.Baffert continues his mastery at Oaklawn along with Bejerano.

18 Feb 2013 6:21 PM
Mary Zinke

If that was late, Twinspires froze, so I missed the race.

18 Feb 2013 6:25 PM
ROBBIEJOE25

I have watched alot of horse races in my life but i have never seen a horse tease a group of horses like 99 just did, i seen alot of horses run off and hide, but never did i see one that let them catch up and take off like he just did....not once but twice, and thank GOD for the slop cus now the other trainers have an excuse to get back in the ring with 99 but after watching 99 toy with this feild unless pletcher sends a couple 99 and baffert are a cinch to make the gate on the first saturday in May.... What say you

18 Feb 2013 6:29 PM
JayJay

PBP :  Are we talking about Belvin ?  The horse you compared to an 8K claimer ?  What is it ?  Is he a good horse or not ?

It's all speculation on my part, I'm guessing he was a rabbit for Shakin' in the San Vicente because Baffert believes Belvin can win the SA Derby but not Shakin'.  Or maybe I'm just trying to find an excuse, I just don't like the way Bejarano rode him in the San Vicente, I really think he's a much much better horse than that.

S99 ran super on the slop, I was right about Rosie, she's just awesome.  Didn't bet S99 at all, but even if I did, still would not have hit the tri with the 8 coming for 3rd.

18 Feb 2013 6:33 PM
Plod Boy Phil

RobbieJo -

True,  that.

My double to the 2 is awfully short....

18 Feb 2013 6:34 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Clarification:

True that he toyed with this bunch.

No opinion on the future yet.

18 Feb 2013 6:37 PM
ROBBIEJOE25

Now don't take that comment as 99 is my derby horse but for now he has the easiest road.......i am leaning toward the trend and by that i mean a new trainer wins and so i must be in the Plesa camp ITSMyLUCKYDAY

18 Feb 2013 6:37 PM
Little Bill

Check out Kitten's front left down the stretch.

18 Feb 2013 6:38 PM
ROBBIEJOE25

Jay Jay, Belvin had the one hole AKA Bafferts worse draw with 3yr olds..... we will get them next time...relax ...dont let phil get to ya he has 52k more peeps to talk with........

18 Feb 2013 6:44 PM
Plod Boy Phil

JayJay -

I did not compare him to an $8k claimer - there you go reading into my posts.

I compared the half mile splits of the two races, to re-inforce what I posted yesterday regarding the slower than norm early splits of the San Vincente.

And oh,  by the way,  BOOM.

18 Feb 2013 6:48 PM
Sam Santschi

PBP, thanks for Energys Pride.  Got me out a little ahead for the day...now for those bushnell x800 lol...

18 Feb 2013 6:52 PM
Kevin

Don't always agree with opinions, but give credit when it is due.  

PBP:  Good call on the 2 in the 10th at OP.  $24 horse.  

18 Feb 2013 7:00 PM
Mary Zinke

Congrats on the long shot, Phil.

18 Feb 2013 7:06 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Thank you Kevin and Sam -

DD was short considering the ML of 20-1.  Energy Priide was posted on the site 7 hours ago, which may have impacted that gimmick.

18 Feb 2013 7:06 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Robbie -

Wanted to clarify that the 'true that' comment referred to S99 toying with the field today.  Not willing to comment on his future prospects yet.

18 Feb 2013 7:08 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Thank you Mary

18 Feb 2013 7:26 PM
KY VET

WOW....bafferts horse freaked like a monster..............owns oaklawn....gotta see that beyer...

18 Feb 2013 7:43 PM
ROBBIEJOE25

Phil glad you seen it the same way i did cus the truth will set you free and your own eyes dont lie' just hope your flow dont tell your eyes they they didnt just see what they saw.... goodluck if they lied 2ya...... downgrade99 wont work here brother

18 Feb 2013 7:51 PM
Mike Relva

Tom Mallios

lol Really? How many chances has Todd let go down the drain? How many horses has he ruined?

Thanks for the laugh.

18 Feb 2013 8:00 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Robbie -

Did I write anything about a downgrade?  What it is with too many out there that they either leave words out when reading or add words not there. I merely indicated that there is more work to be done.  This longing for superstars is interesting.

18 Feb 2013 8:23 PM
JayJay

Where's the race Aqua Fever ran in ?

18 Feb 2013 8:50 PM
Plod Boy Phil

It was Sunday's 10th at SA

18 Feb 2013 9:04 PM
Forbidden Apple

Tom Mallios,

Your post was 100% laughable. Thank you for the warning. The next time I see a Pletcher horse at 4/5 I'll remember that you told me so.

Cold Facts,

Now I know why some people continue to fight with you. You defend any horse or comment that is even closely related to A.P. Indy. Flashback is extremely talented, a gorgeous horse too. You claim everything as fact, when it is a matter of opinion. I prefer Flashback and you prefer Demonic, we are both correct and able to have an opinion. Until they face each other, we are allowed to disagree on who is the better horse. And you are wrong about the McLaughlin barn. It is a very well managed stable and the horses are treated with care. It's not anyones fault that Irsaal is an expensive colt that is not very fast, only the luck of the draw. In this case it's bad luck.

Ranagulzion,

Your predictions of Eskendereya and Uncle Mo as Triple Crown winners kind of takes away your ability to spot talent and pick winners. I also thought that Treasury Bill ran a better race even though he lost. Slop or no slop, Capo Bastone ran a mile in 1:40 4/5. He ran like a sea turtle, or sea monster according to you.

The horse some of you mentioned is Offlee Fast, not Offlee Wild.

Was anyone else impressed by the maglev type performance of Purim's Dancer? She deserves a chance to prove herself at a mile distance.

18 Feb 2013 10:06 PM
Ranagulzion

Coldfacts,

You said that my list is a great list for the disillusioned? Does that mean that you re now paying attention? (LOL)

Transparent looks special to me and you know how skeptical I am of sons of Bernardini on the Derby Trail.

In the Southwest Super Ninety Nine ran great but the overall result of the rae must be taken with a grain of salt due to track conditions. Watch for a complete reversal of form from several of the others in the Rebel Stakes.

The FOY and Risen Star fields are lookng really intriguing. Todd Pletcher's charges could cop both. More anon.

18 Feb 2013 10:34 PM
Ranagulzion

Forbidden Apple,

Once again you're fabricating half truths about my past predictions. I'll soon be calling you a liar ...if you persist.

I did predict Eskendereya would win the Triple Crown if he remained sound, which he didn't ...and few (apart from Pletcher haters and cynics) would deny that he had the pedigree and shown all the qualities to do that.

Regarding Uncle Mo, at no time and in no post did I ever predict him a triple crown winner (check w/Coldfacts with whom I had several skirmishes about Uncle Mo quality). I thought he had the superior class to win the Derby and Preakness but expressed serious doubts about his pedigree to get the Belmont Stakes distance successfully. Once again, try finding a quotation if you intend to discredit one such as yours truly. Please don't let me call you a liar on here.

18 Feb 2013 10:54 PM
Forbidden Apple

One such as yours truly. What does that mean to me or anyone else? On many blogs you speak as if you are above others, we are all the same. You can call me whatever you want, I really don't care. You are now crying because I do not consider Verrazano a racing god, get a grip. You remind me of the the kid in 5th grade who was always right and cried when others disagreed with him. Let me guess, Capo Bastone is a monster and Verrazano is the next Triple Crown winner. Keep dreaming. You so boldly predicted Triple Crown winners, not my fault.

18 Feb 2013 11:17 PM
Forbidden Apple

Uh, you just called me a liar. It's sad that you are confused and can not man up to your bold predictions. It is not wise to predict Triple Crown winners, lesson learned.

18 Feb 2013 11:23 PM
Sam Santschi

Whatever happened to Draynay?

18 Feb 2013 11:41 PM
Forbidden Apple

My 2010 KY Derby picks:

Endorsement, Awesome Act, Conveyance

My 2011 KY Derby picks:

Dialed Inn, ArchArchArch, Soldat, Brilliant Speed

All losers, but at least I can admit when I am wrong. And I never claimed any of them to be Triple Crown winners or called them better than Secreatariat.

Draynay mysteriously vanished around the same time that the Shandler blogs ended.

19 Feb 2013 12:12 AM
Little Bill

Draynay was fictional.

19 Feb 2013 12:17 AM
JayJay

Forbidden Apple : I don't know the history between you and Ranagulzion and I don't know if he did predict Uncle Mo would win the Triple Crown (that may have been the clown of the blog that year), but maybe you were mistaking Uncle Mo with Union Rags.  Ranagulzion predicted...no, proclaimed Union Rags as the guaranteed Triple Crown winner of 2012, I believe sometime in January.  I'm pretty sure he won't deny that one.

Sam Santschi : GO TO YOUR ROOM, you're grounded!! lol

19 Feb 2013 12:22 AM
JayJay

Is Jose Lezcano suspended?  retired ?  or is he really that bad that he lost two mounts for the FOY ?  He won on Majestic Hussar and Elmutahid but I see there's new jockeys riding those horses.  Speaking of jockeys, lots of merry-go-round in the FOY :  JV to Orb, Rosario from Orb to Speak Logistics, Castellano to Violence from Cerro.  Rocco on Cerro, Bravo on Elmutahid, Saez on Majestic Hussar.   Interesting that Shug gave the mount to JV...I can't imagine Rosario picking Speak Logistics over Orb but maybe he did.

19 Feb 2013 12:28 AM
Forbidden Apple

It is an every year occurance that this guy predicts a Triple Crown winner. I'm shocked that he is not calling Verrazano the next champion already. There is no history, only that he has an ongoing love affair with almost every Pletcher horse on the KY Derby trail.

19 Feb 2013 12:33 AM
draynot

Jason was Draynay. He got "an early retirement" because they got tired of his silly ploy that produced big numbers of blogs but were mostly silly rants. Big numbers, little substance, a lot of nonsense.

19 Feb 2013 11:14 AM
Coldfacts

Forbidden Apple,

“You defend any horse or comment that is even closely related to A.P. Indy”

I am at a lost as I do not recall an exchange between us regarding Flashback and Demonic. In any event aren’t both colts from the AP Indy sire line?

I do not defend the A P Indy sire line. I try to provide cold fact to dispel the Slow Development Syndrome theory fashioned by Ranagulzion. You should know that I am a Mr. Prospector sire line guy.

“You claim everything as fact, when it is a matter of opinion.”

I cannot disagree with you more. I have repeatedly posted that cold facts are the historic records referenced in by posts. Cold facts can obviously lead to different opinions.

In two recent posts I cited some cold facts and specified that they did not support your opinions.

My opinions are separate from clod facts. I assume that this distinction is easily determined by all.

19 Feb 2013 11:22 AM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

I dont have a Derby list nor do I want to confound my thinking by formulating a derby list and having to make changes after every round of preps.It all starts this Saturday with the 50 pointers.The two preps with 14 and 11 horse fields will provide list makers with additions and or subtractions.

While it seems to be in vogue to knock general Ps trainees,if Violence scores over the other 10 this weekend I start to like him more.In the Risen Star with a 14 horse field which could lead to several colts being sent to the lead,and with the long stretch there could be an upsetter earning the 50 points.I wouldnt confirm any winner coming out of the Fairgrounds until I see them running at another venue and finishing in the money.I like Verrazano but any serious consideration of this colt is contingent on a victory in his next race which should be a 50 pointer.As far as S99 remember last season Baffert sent Castaway over to take this race and he didnt do anything else in subsequent prep races.

19 Feb 2013 11:22 AM
Coldfacts

Forbidden Apple,

“You defend any horse or comment that is even closely related to A.P. Indy”

I am at a lost as I do not recall an exchange between us regarding Flashback and Demonic. In any event aren’t both colts from the AP Indy sire line?

I do not defend the A P Indy sire line. I try to provide cold facts to dispel the Slow Development Syndrome theory fashioned by Ranagulzion. You should know that I am a Mr. Prospector sire line guy.

“You claim everything as fact, when it is a matter of opinion.”

I cannot disagree with you more. I have repeatedly posted that cold facts are the historic records referenced in by posts. Cold facts can obviously lead to different opinions.

In two recent posts I cited some cold facts and specified that they did not support your opinions.

My opinions are separate from cold facts. I assume that this distinction is easily determined by all.

19 Feb 2013 11:24 AM
Mike Relva

Draynot

Exactly. Always enjoy your comments. Like I've stated regarding Shandler, when your good like Haskin you don't need theater. When he announced last year he was "taking his talents to Miami",(actually where I'm from) my reaction was- what talent? lol

19 Feb 2013 11:43 AM
Mike Relva

Ranagulzion

If we are patting ourself on the back-ok. Seems like I mentioned on many blogs Uncle Mo, while talented,was a miler. Keep beating the drum for Todd,my friend. Every year it's the same, he has an unlimited supply of horses which has translated into ONE DERBY WIN. Perhaps if he hasn't ruined so many he might have three or four by now.

19 Feb 2013 11:50 AM
predict

MR

Couldn't agree with you more regarding JS's talents as a handicapper. We are lucky to have someone like Pete here now; I, for one, truly appreciate him.

19 Feb 2013 3:26 PM
Ranagulzion

Mike Relva,

Its full time to get over Jason Shandler my friend he's quit the blog long enough ...makes you look like a miserable and bitter old man.  Also the Pletcher bashing does you no good cause he's gonna win another Derby soon ...has a better than average shot this year, I think. Lets move on Mike.

19 Feb 2013 4:59 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Well, it's that time of the week again when I play the bad guy and ask Pete for the Smart Play recap. For those that find this somehow rude or out of line,  the only reason I do it is that Pete himself announced after a very good 1st Saturday of the year that it would become a regular feature on the Blog. Otherwise, I would have never asked him for his results. I look forward to providing my take on horses we shared in common or on particular races. I will not point out any of our downgrades that may have been a selection of his,  win or lose.

As a follow up to Predict's comment immediately above,  I would find it more useful if you were a bit more forthcoming with some selections or commentaries on races not part of your Locksmith. After all, there is quality racing at least four days a week.

Thanks in advance.

19 Feb 2013 5:32 PM
Mike Relva

Ranagulzion

That would be somewhat funny, except I'm not old. Kinda doubt you could keep up with my schedule. lol  As for Shandler,I wasn't the first to bring him up,merely made a comment. Sounds like he's pretty bitter himself. Guess would be too if I quit while I'm behind. Last but not least your hero Pletcher. How many chances has he had now with a loaded stable for the Derby? lmao Face reality, not everyone worships the ground he crawls on. Get your excuses available when it doesn't work out for him in the Derby.

19 Feb 2013 6:01 PM
Mike Relva

Predict

Thanks! And good point, agree w/ you.

19 Feb 2013 6:13 PM
Ranagulzion

Forbidden Apple,

I said that you were clueless about how good Verazzano is and what does that evoke from you? A smear campaign of fabricated half-truths.  Why not try to tell us why you think that the colt is no good based upon some reasonable horseracing argument ...no, all you can think to do is bash Todd Pletcher and misrepresent other posters who happen to fancy the chances of some of his charges.  The shame is on you.

Jay Jay,

I was a proud fan of Union Rags ...still am (what a georgeous specimen of a racehorse?).  Yes indeed, I predicted that he would stay healthy and win the Triple Crown but I dont feel any shame about that.  Its all fun and I do enjoy spotting the special ones early and am willing to go out on a limb and predict when I see the superstar qualities that I'm looking for (with UR I was convinced after his romp in the Saratoga Special as a 2YO). Union Rags, we all know was knocked out at the start of the Derby but I did savour a measure of vindication, especially at your expense when he prevailed in the Belmont Stakes, like I said he would when all the naysayers including some well know pedigree buffs were doubtful about his sire's ability to through stayers.

In the case of Eskendereya, I was even more certain of his Triple Crown prowess than Union Rags but the poor horse broke down before the Derby.  If he had run and lost I could be a bit more understanding of Forbidden Apple's attempt to rubbish my predictions but that poster keeps knocking horses that didn't make the races due to ill-health (Uncle Mo).  Before Uncle Mo, I was a huge fan of Quality Road from the time he was trained by Jimmy Jerkens and he too failed to make the Triple Crown races due to ill-health after destroying Todd Pletcher's top colt Dunkirk in the Florida Derby in track record time. I enjoy the banter on the blog as I'm sure you do but I think folks need to play clean and fair and avoid foul tackles like the ones F/Apple's been trying on yours truly (LOL).

19 Feb 2013 6:15 PM
Ranagulzion

Mike Relva,

I didn't mean to say that you were old (although there's no shame in growing old gracefully unless you're bitter and miserable). Being positive reflects better on you as a poster.

As I've posted many times before, I have no axe grinding for Todd Pletcher. I'm an avid fan of the sport with an appreciation for quality thoroughbreds, class, excellence, professionalism, honesty and malice towards none. Peace Bro.  

19 Feb 2013 6:34 PM
Mike Relva

Ranagulzion

I think you're well versed with knowledge regarding racing. You've made your share of interesting,bright points.

Having said that I don't think a certain blog host kept it "positive" by making a career of slamming certain horse/connections. If you're smart like I think you are, do you realize how he would be laughed out of a room full of industry experts that have a totally different view point? Am I wrong?

19 Feb 2013 7:06 PM
Forbidden Apple

Ranagulzion,

Blah blah blah, more excuses from you. I never said that Verrazano was not good, he just did not make my derby dozen list. Why does this offend you? Some people were knocking Itsmyluckyday for running fast in Jan. & Feb. Yet when Verrazano runs fast he is the next champion in the making. You are only admitting half of the truth, not my fault. I apologize if your feelings are hurt because I am not a Verrazano fanatic. I'm not sold on any horse as of now, only making a list and watching closely.

19 Feb 2013 7:07 PM
KY VET

I enjoy the banter on the blog as I'm sure you do but I think folks need to play clean and fair and avoid foul tackles like the ones F/Apple's been trying on yours truly (LOL).

ranag

KY Vet,

Trust me buddy, I know a monster when I see one and TB aint one ...at least no yet.  These type of horses are not your everyday allowance or caiming types ...you dont have that great a record on these blogs handicapping Graded stakes races ...I've been watching. You can learn from me about these types Bro.  

Ive won more money on the derby , than any other race.........

19 Feb 2013 7:20 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Our Flow and Bias figures for last week are in.

The San Vincente receives a 'neutral' rating (fair for all when considering the combined effect of Flow and Bias).  Thus all runners will be given a 'neutral' grade for their effort, including Treasury Bill (much to my dismay).  In other words, each performance should be taken on face value. RF theory dictates that only the winner,  Shakin It Up, will carry his upgrade into his next start, as upgraded runners that go on to win a neutral race qualify for our 'Neutral or Better Winner' angle.

I would certainly not argue with anyone willing to credit Bill for his wideest of all run.  Consequently he is removed from my previously posted two horse Derby List, which leaves only the upgraded Orb.

Simple ?

You bet.

19 Feb 2013 7:31 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Added note -

Before anyone (VET) starts screaming at me about bias this and bias that, the track played fair.  The Flow was well w/in the normal range. As I've stated in the past,  there is much more to 'Flow' than 1st Q, 2nd Q, and Final time. Each track and distance have their own predictors.

Ahhhh,  never mind.

19 Feb 2013 7:49 PM
El Kabong

Plod Boy Phil,

"Our Flow and Bias Figures are In........."

Didn't see any Florida info.

Not surprised.

19 Feb 2013 8:58 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

I also thought Eskendereya was a strong Triple Crown candidate, the strongest of any since Barbaro. Nothing wrong with having a feeling like or prdicting greatness that doesn't pan out, or predicting winners that lose. It's a tough game and we are wrong the majority of the time but that is what it is all about is making predictions. I always get confused by criticisms of predictions. Isn't that what we do when we bet? I don't even take much stock in percentages. It should be fun and we hope to make money, especially a big score, so have fun and if you feel like making predictions here but don't because you are afraid of criticism don't worry about it and have fun. There are very few people in the history of this game that really have it down in every aspect of the picking and betting game to bet correctly most of the time and make a lot of money at it. I will toot my horn about one thing I predicted in the beginning- this is a very good blog with a knowledgable host and I hope that Pete continues it for many years. Counter with the horse you like and why, instead of complaining because someone has a pick or vision that you don't like, and since you don't like the horse the guy must be an idiot. Remember- every horse is bet on every race by someone that likes him for whatever reason. Every horse has someone's hard earned money placed on him. Now, where did I put that bottle of Scotch.

19 Feb 2013 9:11 PM
Plod Boy Phil

El Kabong -

You're back. Happy to see no ill effects from whatever it was that sent you into the land of Oz when you were last heard from on Saturday night. Much like the DWI, the PWI does have it's own shameful consequences.

You do know we sell this stuff, right?  I provide plenty of free information on the site,  including robust winners for those capable of little more than writing down names and numbers.

What exactly would you like to know regarding the past weekend at GP?

19 Feb 2013 9:34 PM
El Kabong

Dr. D

It is not best that we should all think alike; it is a difference of opinion that makes horse races.

Mark Twain

19 Feb 2013 9:35 PM
El Kabong

Dr. D,

It's right behind my Gin.

19 Feb 2013 9:36 PM
KY VET

Plod boy....no problem with what you do.....it has a place....it is 1 tool........the winner ran great....more of a prep for bill....for longer........funny, no upgrade for horse going 22change  2nd quarter....then still came home fast.....i think alot of people miss that. They said they were not gonna ask him to stay close, and stuck by it....this horse pointed for later.....thats why im impressed...........those were good horses in that race....just getting up to them after 3 f took alot....

19 Feb 2013 9:37 PM
Plod Boy Phil

KY VET -

If I ever was tempted to climb aboard a horse that fails to meet upgrade status - Treasury Bil is that horse. I'll be rooting for him.  Hopefully it will be in a race in which I can hook him up with an upgrade,  or use him in the middle of a P3 that has 'grades' on either end.

19 Feb 2013 9:45 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

El Kabong

   Excellent Twain quote. Thanks, I see it now. Hmm, I thought there was more left than that. Will have to make it work, I'm not touching Gin again.

19 Feb 2013 9:51 PM
El Kabong

Plod Boy Phil,

If you missed me, I was busy doing quite well this weekend. Still, the question was, how did those figures for Florida come out, or do we have to subpoena a local statistician for the hanging chads on that speed bias at GP ?  

19 Feb 2013 9:54 PM
Plod Boy Phil

There was an important Speed Bias in play on Saturday at Gulfstream. The Flow of the Alw1x race in question (Capo Bastone) was even more Extreme for Closers than that seen in the BCJ.  The net result is a race that was favorable for Closers.  Upgrade Offlee Fast.  Downgrade the winner and all those that closed or failed to close ground,  including the third place finisher Finn's Quest.

19 Feb 2013 10:10 PM
El Kabong

PBP,

I realize you "owe me nothing" but you did do quite an extensive job of pre analyzing without the flow figures and I wanted to give you a chance to substantiate your expertise in simple chart analysis that someone of my "basic" understanding could comprehend and perhaps lift myself up into a better state of handicapping quagmire.

19 Feb 2013 10:13 PM
Plod Boy Phil

El K -

Before you start betting all the closers from GP on the 16th,  combining the impact of Flow and Bias for all eight of the dirt races, only one race can be considered as modestly speed favoring.  That race was not won by a horse on the lead at either the first or second call.

Good Luck.

19 Feb 2013 10:25 PM
JayJay

Ranagulzion : Please, don't act like you were gracious at all at the time when you were predicting and telling everyone that UR was the 2012 TC winner, be honest about it.  You were so arrogant that you (thought you) spotted the TC winner early in the game.   You were humbled by the fact that UR didn't win the Derby (lol at "knocked out".)   We can agree to disagree about the Belmont.

19 Feb 2013 10:26 PM
El Kabong

PBP,

So look for Offlee Fast to improve with the next one?

Duly noted. Upgraded for GP or anywhere?

I think Capo closing on that surface is far more likely to show us improvement. Again, I like him going up to 9f's, but I don't expect him to excel at 10F's.

Thanks for the invite, but I'm a vertical player who only dabbles in the horizontal when it's worth it, but I'm paying attention to the .10 cent super at GP.  

19 Feb 2013 10:42 PM
Plod Boy Phil

JayJay -

Have to step in here.

How can a guy that wants to blame a miserable effort by Belvin on the rider, or for being offered up as a rabbit by the trainer, not acknowledge that UR was completely eliminated at the start of the Derby ?  Seems clear that whatever subjectivity you are accusing Ranag of,  you are equally so in the other direction.

19 Feb 2013 10:55 PM
JayJay

PBP : Two totally different races.  I don't even get your point lol.   LOL at "completely eliminated".. come on.   IF UR was truly a triple crown winner type horse, he would've done something better than coming in 6th.  He was lucky to get 6th even.   A great horse can overcome bad starts, or even getting in trouble and still have some run in the end, they didn't have to win but would "die" trying.  Did you see Afleet Alex's preakness run ?  

This is why you need to step out of that database world you live in, watch live races, get away from your computer and numbers, you'll learn something.  Shouldn't have stepped in there...nope, shouldn't have...

19 Feb 2013 11:18 PM
JayJay

PBP : Did you even watch the Derby ?  UR was squeezed but hardly touched, he was clear on the rail right after.  If he was truly a great horse like Ranagulzion was touting him to be, he had PLENTY, and I mean PLENTY of time to recover.  It was a 10F race... maybe you thought it was over the first time they crossed the finish line and that's wh you think he was completely eliminated.

19 Feb 2013 11:33 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Of course you didn't get my point. I'm questioning your ability to objectively watch races to gain useful information. In the case of Belvin, you had a vested interest of some sort on the horse and saw him get a bad ride or be offered up as bait,  rather than the dreadful race it was.  In the case of Union Rags, you had a vested interest in the horse failing, and that is what you chose to see. I guess I expect more from someone with your race watching skills.

Yes, I did see AA's Preakness run -

in fact, I was not far from where the incident occurred.  

There is a huge difference in being eliminated (yes, eliminated) at the start of a race involving 20 horses and doing oan Alysheba off the elbow of the turn as the superior horse.  I was present trackside for every one of Afleet Alex's Triple Crown races.  He was truly gifted.

19 Feb 2013 11:41 PM
Mike Relva

Coldfacts

We haven't always agreed,but that doesn't deny the fact of the contribution you've made. Enjoyed your comments thru the years.

20 Feb 2013 12:00 AM
Coldfacts

Ranagulzion,

I will confirm that you had reservations about Uncle Mo’s ability to win the Belmont. However, you did not consider ludicrous, statements posted by Mr. Haskin and Mr. Shandler suggesting that trainers would be running out of town when Mo rolled in. He was considered the next secretariat; the best thing since sliced bread; the second coming of Christ and a machine. You were in concordance with those making such assessments and therefore you indirectly endorsed his status as the next TC winner. ‘Birds of a feather flow together’

BTW: You has no such revelations about Dialed In and Union Rags.

Your love affair with horses from the barn of Mr. Pletcher knows no bounds. Each year at least 5 of the 12 colt on your initial Derby dozen are form the barn of the multiple eclipse award winning trainer. You continue to worship at his altar despite his 1 win from 31 starters that contested 12 Derbies. Each year he as a trailer load of Derby prospects that are placed on his high octane program and when May rolls around they either go MIA or flop.

I have nothing against Mr. Pletcher but I have seen enough of his horses change from impressive to dull to early retirements. No one has forgotten how Life At Ten did not break out of a canter in the BC Ladies Classic and never won a race after.  Quality Road was chasing the ambulance in his BCC effort after refusing to enter thse starting gates the previous year.

I have heard no other trainer specifying that they need a minimum of 4 weeks between races. The Preakness is contested 2 week after the Derby. Could this be the reason for his dismal Preakness record? How can he be consider a serious TC trainer if the horses on his high octane program required 4 weeks before another competitive effort is guaranteed?

Verrazano, Revolutionary, Overanalyze etc., are nice colts. However, they will all be carrying the added handicap of their trainer’s dismal Derby record should they make the starting gates.

20 Feb 2013 12:02 AM
Coldfacts

Plod Boy Phil,

Let me bring closure to this issue by clarifying my position.

I do not agree with your assessment that a horse on race day medication is likely to be better than the one it has defeated by a NK. If both were minus race day medication, I would have no problem accepting your assessment that the winner was either the better the particular day or in the ability department.  

20 Feb 2013 12:14 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Coldfacts-

Ok.

Footbridge was far superior.  Govenor Charlie should consider himself honored to be on the same track as the former, and, if he were any kind of class horse at all,  he'd have refused to enter the enclosure.

Now it's closed.

Regards.

20 Feb 2013 12:20 AM
JayJay

PBP :  And I question your ability to handicap based on little numbers.  The proof is not what your "knowledge" is of things, it's how you pick winners.  Unlike you, I don't claim to be an expert, I welcome and read people's opinions here, I don't always question them.  Do I believe everything what people posts here ?  No, but it's interesting to read how people think about things and how different or similar they are to my thinking (with me not having that much knowledge about hores themselves).  I come here to learn about horses and the industry, I don't expect to learn anything from you because you're here for business and the only information you're throwing out there is solely marketing information.  It's all about you selling your service.  Anytime you post something, the purpose is to highlight your service in the end.  I saw it after chatting with you about your service and it seems you're still bitter about me not believing in it.

Where did you get the idea that I had vested interest in UR failing ?  You don't even know what my "discussion" with Ranagulzion was at the time.  I told him he was crazy to predict a triple crown winner in January, even before he ran in the Derby.  Are you crazy enough to predict a triple crown winner today ?  or tomorrow ?

Also, how can you "acknowledge" that UR was "completely eliminated" at the start ?  Seems to me you're indicating he would've run better than a 6th place finish had he not been squeezed ?  I swear I thought you said in the past that you don't take into account the troubles horses get into during the race in determining how they would've run in the race.   I think you even said that horses who got in trouble may have given them a better position or something to that effect.  I'm too lazy to find your post but maybe tomorrow when I'm bored lol.

20 Feb 2013 12:40 AM
Ranagulzion

Forbidden Apple 19 Feb 2013 7:07 PM

I'm not offended by playing rough on here but play clean ... no dirty tackles using fabrication to discredit your oponent because of some vendetta against a trainer whose charge your oponent happens to fancy.

Jay Jay,

A vigorous defence of one's selection or prediction, which you may or may not find gracious, does not mean that one is playing "dirty".

KY Vet,

Let the record be set straight when you post your Graded stakes winners this season ...before the races are run (LOL).  Peace, my Pro.

Dr Drunkinbum,

Have you found the Scotch yet (LOL) ...you're a riot Doc.

20 Feb 2013 1:01 AM
Ranagulzion

Colfacts,

Might I remind you that so far this season the record of your fancied runners on the track do not lend weight to the verbosity of your postings or to your forcast of how Pletcher's charges will perform. Take advise from a friend right now and make it your priority intead to select a couple of winners in the upcoming Derby preps.  After that, maybe enough credibility will return to your Pletcher bashing and folks other than F/Apple will pay attention. Right now your handicapping record needs urgent repairing Bro ...forget about Todd Pletcher 'cause his "high octane" Capo Bastone just recenty pulverised your much vaunted Duke of the City ... which I would think is enough to issue a cease and desist order to you. Speak easy on such matters until your winning percentage has been resusitated my friend. Peace.

20 Feb 2013 1:21 AM
Plod Boy Phil

JayJay -

You are correct. I did not read any of the debate.  However, it's easily inferred that your vested interest in UR was him failing to win the TC. A Derby loss would ensure such failure. I'll also state with great confidence that one of your selling points in the winter of spring of 2012 was that UR would not 'get' the 12f of the Belmont.  History will forever remind you that the opinion was incorrect,  regardless of the character flaw that prevents your from accepting you were wrong or someone else was right.  As for predicting a TC winner in January being crazy, it seems perfectly within the boundaries bloggers here have established.  In fact, in my opinion, it carries more credibility than making a list of 20 recent MSW winners and ultimately tabbing one of them as the best of a strong SoCal contingent.

You and I never 'chatted' regarding RF. You asked one or two questions about the products via this forum. Of course everything I post is filled RF information and perspective - it's what I do. If posting the late DD at OP here on Sunday is considered a marketing ploy, I plead guilty as charged.  The idea that I'm bitter about not having you as a customer is as silly as following every comment with 'lol' or a smiley face.

I do not consider trouble in evaluating horses for the purposes of providing 'grades'. Trouble can not be quantified, thus, we leave that up to our subscribers. Do you or anyone else know the physical or mental impact of being slammed out of the gate? Again, our concepts and views are clear and consistent.  The fact that I've been forced to clarify them for you repeatedly is a reflection on your reading comprehension skills and a reinforces your pattern of subjectivity that prevents clear processing of information.

I have written that horses that start slowly in closer favoring races may actually find themselves in a more advantageous early position as a result. However,  the 2012 Derby was not such as race, as the moderately closer favoring Flow was offset by a notable Speed Bias that left the race 'neutral' for all.

20 Feb 2013 10:09 AM
Plod Boy Phil

JayJay -

While I may have done so, I do not recall posting the 'slow start in a Closer favoring race' concept on this Blog.

Perhaps you are referring to the e-mail I responded to on Jan 24th regarding Market Quote.

20 Feb 2013 10:49 AM
Mike Relva

Coldfacts

I was never sold on Mo winning the Derby, my comments reflected such.

Agree with you on your latest points.

20 Feb 2013 11:35 AM
JayJay

PBP :  

1.  By saying UR was "completely eliminated" at the start, what did you mean ?

2.  Who are you predicting to win the Triple Crown this year ?

3.  Why do you care so much about my "discussion" with Ranagulzion from over a year ago?  What possible information can you get from it ?

So first, you insult my way of handicapping, now you're insulting my reading comprehension, and my pattern of subjectivity and blah blah blah blah...

You know, if I run across someone like that...I would stay away from them, not engage them.  If I truly believe they were that, I would not spend 30 seconds engaging them on a subject that I wasn't even a part of in the first place.  It would show how desperate I am for attention.  I would instead, post my winning tickets :)  

I'm going to say it again, RacingFlow is not for me, I'm not paying that huge amount for what I think is 1 little piece of information.  Your winning percentage here on this blog is not something to brag about.  I have no doubts you'll hit some winners, but to say it's the best tool out there is ridiculous.  The times you hit a winner, it probably had absolutey nothing to do with your tool, maybe it's luck.  Let's see you post your winners and losers for this year.  At least post something for your potential users to see.   We'll all cheer for you, well, okay, maybe not all.

20 Feb 2013 11:52 AM
THE KEYMASTER

I see Plop picked a winner. I guess if you throw enough darts at the board, you will eventually hit the bullseye.  However, in Plop's words, "A good result does not make your opinion correct."

20 Feb 2013 11:59 AM
JayJay

PBP : Also, by coming after me, trying to make me look bad, here's the bad news.  It wouldn't get you any users to sign up, I'm not that important, but if someone does sign up and say "I'm only signing up because I hate that JayJay dude" ... then I want my cut.

20 Feb 2013 12:07 PM
THE KEYMASTER

By the way, there are other systems out there that calculate pace (or flow if that is what you want to call it) by each quarter, such as Bris.  I don't use any of those either.

It really isn't that hard to look at PPs and/or charts in order to compare fractional times and the running lines to figure out if the pace was fast and would benefit closers or if the pace was slow and would benefit front runners.  The track variant will tell you if the track was playing fast or slow.

Also, I have been previously misinformed that a quantitative measurement is not available to measure path.  However, Trakus can provide this information.  I don't use this either.

There are far too many variables in racing that cannot be quantified to rely on a quantitive system.  Using quantitive information as a tool to handicap is one thing, but using it solely to tout horses is ignorant.  There are way too many other important factors that must be considered when wagering.

20 Feb 2013 12:14 PM
Plod Boy Phil

JayJay (aka Bryan)-

1) UR lost all reasonable chance of winning the race at the start.

2) I have no opinion on the ability of any horse to win the TC this year, or have I had one in any other year.  I do have an opinion as to the long term positive impact it will have on the sport if and when it happens - very little.

3) It is in my nature to interject or intervene, depending on the magnitude of the wrong being perpetrated. Simply state that you were wrong about URs ability to win a 12f race against his peers and it's over.  Agreeing to disagree does not cut-it.

I did not insult your way of handicapping. I stated that you are swayed by the subjective nature that the methodolgy presnts, perhaps more so than most based on the two clear cut examples cited.

20 Feb 2013 12:26 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Keymaster-

Classy with the derrogatory use of Plop in lieu of Plod.

Courage born of anonymity is like steam exposed to the wind - it dissipates rapidly.

20 Feb 2013 12:29 PM
Plod Boy Phil

JayJay -

I was wrong about you being Bryan. He just contacted me to make it clear he is not you.  I apologized to him,  for obvious reasons.

Best of racing luck to you - may the pin pong balls flow to the gap in proper order.

20 Feb 2013 1:02 PM
THE KEYMASTER

Plop,

Don't take it so personally.  It is just fun on a blog; however, anything that I would write on this blog, I would readily say face to face.  I would be happy to meet in person if you were so inclined.

I do not know you and you have never done anything to me personally, so I do not harbor any resentment toward you.  I just disagree with your definition of track bias and your reasoning when touting so many horses.

20 Feb 2013 1:07 PM
KY VET

capo race came up really really slow brisnet....not even close to being derby prospect.....san vincente wasnt great fig either...like treasury bill to improve, but not quite fast enough for derby........cant wait to see normandy run. almost put bet on pool 1 on him..........the champ looks like cinch at gp..............why do people love orb? i think he might improve, but he has never run fast.....

20 Feb 2013 1:08 PM
KY VET

Beginners to the game, see a horse run great, and pick that horse....who can blame them?,,,,,Then you learn more about the game, and realize, there are many other reasons why that choosing that horse is a mistake..........RANAG,is a beginner, he thinks he is a great judge of horse flesh.....what talent! Loving Quality road, Dialed in, Uncle mo,Eskendrea, Union rags....This list is kinda embarrassing, because who didnt know? He picked these horses AFTER they ran great.....sure, we All know they were good.......its like liking a 1/5 shot.......wow, youre good!........Took alot of talent to pick those!.....I loved uncle mo....but only bet him once, in the bcj.........i dont pick 1 horse, and stay on him.....my deal is, every race is different.......the bottom line is.....those horses were all great, NONE of them won the derby....at short future odds.............He is a great judge of horse flesh!......................beginner!

20 Feb 2013 1:34 PM
KY VET

tam.....race 3.....wp #2 DARK NEBULA

20 Feb 2013 1:36 PM
KY VET

dark nebula...winner by 5 in hand..........2nd fav. at 2 to 1.................like shooting fish in a barrel!.........oh......it wasnt a graded race? so it doesnt count? 200 w = +440

20 Feb 2013 1:43 PM
JayJay

PBP : You're desperate lol.  I'm not bryan.  I've never emailed you, and will never email you.  You want people to email you so you don't have to embarrass yourself here on the blog.  Look, your RF is no different than Beyer, he created a formula that he sold but people accepted it.  I doubt you'll get that kind of market with the RF and that's why you're on this blog.  I just hope you got at least one person to sign up since you spend so much time on here.  I don't use Beyer, I don't read the form, I don't use any other "tool".  I'm quite satisfied with my handicapping, and it made me money last year.

I said UR will not make 12Fs against top contenders, a 12K claiming horse can run 2 miles if they're not competing with anyone.  Tell me which horses UR beat before the Belmont that was competitive at 9Fs ?  Oh wait, he never won a 9F race, my bad.  He barely beat Paynter who at that point was not even that good, yet UR was all out to beat him, not to mention that Paynter lost a shoe.  Would UR been an upgrade from his Belmont win for the Travers ?  You still have the data, so based on your data, would you say he was an upgrade ?

For someone who sells products that has a very low win percentage, you are in no position to tell anyone anything about their way of handicapping.  Your product isn't working well, if I had been betting your upgrades and downgrades, I would be in the red right now.  You charge an absurd amount for what little info you give the users, then tell them to do some more handicapping because you don't look at anything that can't be quantified which is like the other 99.5%.  What a joke.

Why can't you post your win/loss record this year ?  Stop dodging the question.  You nag Pete about his smart plays, why can't you post all your upgrades and downgrades?  Your users already paid for it so it's not like you're sharing something that's worth any money.

20 Feb 2013 2:01 PM
Forbidden Apple

What is a foul tackle? If I wanted to tackle you, it would be head on. Please stop whining Ranagulzion. You went above and beyond just forecasting a winner of a race. Every year you think you spotted the next Triple Crown winner in February.

North Slope looks like an easy winner on saturday at Gulfstream.

I like Orb for second, Violence will dominate this group.

20 Feb 2013 2:27 PM
KY VET

ooopppss...i meant violence should win not the champ...

20 Feb 2013 2:29 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Ranagulzion

   I did. Thank you. Will be looking forward to your post race analysis of the big prep races this coming weekend. I think we might finally get a clue from a prep race this year.

20 Feb 2013 2:34 PM
KY VET

Jay....we get it.....dont join it......he doesnt make picks.......he sells info.......get over it..........and how can anyone criticize the way you handicap?  when you dont handicap?.....you guess.......you dont look at a form........

20 Feb 2013 2:34 PM
Coldfacts

Plod Boy Phil,

Your response to my last post on the Footbridge issue suggests that you are somewhat annoyed. It was never my intention to create annoyance and for this you have my humblest apology. I appreciate the fact that you took time to highlight that both Curly Top and Governor Charlie were likely to be either better animals or better on the day. I my opinion the assessment ignored the fact that both colts were on race day medication and consequently Footbridge was surrendering an important advantage.  

In a race contested by either equally or closely matched horses, the advantage is likely to go to the one on the medical enhancer.  

Mr. Pletcher was reluctant to send top rated SB to the Breeder Cup because Lasix use was disallowed in 2YO races. One of his major owners was outraged and threatened to boycott the Cup.  If Lasix was not considered a major race day medication, why would these gentlemen be so vehemently against the Breeders Board Cup decision?

I never inferred that Footbridge was the superior horse. I merely advised those salivating at his loss that he was not on a drug that can make a difference in races decided by inches.

20 Feb 2013 2:41 PM
Coldfacts

CHIEF PICAWINNA,

“Coldfacts I don't think Falling Sky can beat Violence Saturday in the FOY.”

No one thought Mine That Bird could have won the Kentucky Derby. He not only won the race but destroyed the field. What the morale of the story? Races are not decided on paper and past performances are no guarantees for future success.

If I did not think that Falling Sky was a serious racehorse I would not be on record specifying same. There are those that focus on the known and ignore the unknown. Revisit the videos of this colt races and focus on his stride pattern and the ease with which he covers ground. He easily defeated a highly regarded Majestic Hussar who returned to humble the highly thought of Palace Malice.

He went into Tampa Bay and won the Sam Davis from gate to wire. If you know anything about that track it is very difficult to go gate to wire there. When he was joined by Dynamic Sky he would not let that one by and showed that he was capable of finding another gear.

His dam was sire by Derby winner Sea Hero a horse that was loaded with stamina on both sided of his pedigree. His second dam was sire by a son of Seattle Slew and his third by Roberto. There is enough stamina hi his dam line to carry his speed. This colt’s most impressive victory came at GP and he will be forwardly placed and dangerous.

20 Feb 2013 3:13 PM
Forbidden Apple

Would anyone else be interested in wagering on an MMA style fight between Obama and Baynard? I think us taxpayers deserve a good battle. Maybe we can make it a pay-per-view event with proceeds going to the national debt.

Cold Facts,

Good point, why are Pletcher and Repole so against the ban of lasix?

We disagree on races and certain horses, differing opinions.

20 Feb 2013 3:13 PM
JayJay

KY VET :  At least you got one thing right, I don't read the form.   By the way, nice handicapping the Southwest, you picked two horses and neither hit the board.

20 Feb 2013 3:21 PM
Plod Boy Phil

coldfacts-

Yes, I was annoyed since I believed that the topic did not need further coverage,  never mind your unilateral decision to provide closure with a final volley.

The term 'better' (I never dreamed it would be so volatile) was used as a means of describing their finish positions, nothing more.  The Govenor Charlie race was perfectly neutral. Beyond that, I have nothing else to add.

Regards.

20 Feb 2013 3:28 PM
Plod Boy Phil

KY VET -

Thanks.

20 Feb 2013 3:42 PM
KY VET

TAMPA RACE 8 #2 OPERA HALL WIN

20 Feb 2013 4:07 PM
KY VET

Too bad....my 2nd best bet got bet down....oh, that was me.....opera hall easy.....4.20.......200w +220 for 2 for 2 +660....low prices, but you wanted winners......

20 Feb 2013 4:28 PM
KY VET

im giving you my daily 10.......10 picks per day.....

20 Feb 2013 4:32 PM
Mary Zinke

So tempted to "bite" on that, but, no.

20 Feb 2013 5:06 PM
KY VET

funny....

20 Feb 2013 5:29 PM
Mary Zinke

Any reason to pick against Data Link? I don't see one.

20 Feb 2013 5:47 PM
Mary Zinke

Where are the other 8? I hope you don't lose any by inches.

20 Feb 2013 6:04 PM
KY VET

delta race 3...#1 big boys in town

delta race 5...#5 majestic song

delta race 6 ..#5 ggs girl

delta race 8...#8 live every day

delta race 9 ..#5 purely awesome

delta race 10...#6 white tail cat

ct    race 6 ..#1 my magnolia

ct    race 7 #5  fast stack

thats 10 total.......your daily 10

20 Feb 2013 6:47 PM
Plod Boy Phil

KY VET -

I know that you are just joking about having an impact on the win mutual with your $200 bet. That wager, placed on the betting favorite, moved the total percentage of the win pool placed on the favorite by .16%.  Had you not made the bet, the horse would have paid $4.20 to win.

Imagine the impact such wagers have on the average win pool at a major track on a Saturday.

The above is not for your benefit, as I stated above,  but rather for those inclined to ask the question, "why sell information if it works so well?"

By the wire,  2 for 2 is never bad.

20 Feb 2013 6:48 PM
KY VET

I see where ya went m..........hey, Always a tiz, found to have lung infection.........now they tell me!

20 Feb 2013 7:02 PM
JayJay

KY VET :  Tell you?   I thought you're the expert at finding broken horses ??  You should've seen that before the race right ?  Aren't you the one that "knows" things better than trainers ?  Now tell us, what's wrong with Big Lute ?  Does he need a time off ?  

20 Feb 2013 7:52 PM
Forbidden Apple

Ranagulzion,

What planet are you living on? You just fabricated a high octane horse in Capo Bastone. Again proving your immense love for everything related to Pletcher. Regardless of track condition, when a horse runs a mile in 1:40 4/5 seconds, he/she is running like a turtle. You discredit yourself, with no help from me. Yes Pletcher is not one of my favorite trainers, so what. But last year I liked Gemologist and this year I like Violence a little. Quit back tracking and own up to your bold predictions. Since you have trouble picking winners, I'll give you one. North Slope on saturday at Gulfstream. I am guessing that he will be around 3-1. This son of Elusive Quality has talent, he was full of muscle and bouncing 3 weeks ago.

20 Feb 2013 8:12 PM
Ranagulzion

Forbidden Apple,

It was our mutual friend Coldfacts who introduced the "high octane" lable for Todd Pletcher's horses. Capo Bastone might have run like a turtle but he came out on top nevertheless ...and presumably ahead of yours and Coldfacts' selection.

KY Vet,

The rookies on here are pretty obvious to those who are veterans (not vets).  

20 Feb 2013 8:44 PM
Plod Boy Phil

re: North Slope

Will need a major improvement Saturday following an easy as can be MSW win in an Extreme Race for Speed. Catches legit pace pressure in Hanzel T and Redwood Kitten.  Unfortunately, we have no upgrades in the race to take advantage of what will hopefully be a short-priced downgrade in North Slope.

20 Feb 2013 8:48 PM
Mike Relva

Dr. Drunkinbum

Always great seeing your comments.

20 Feb 2013 8:50 PM
KY VET

3rd delta....never got to run..stuck on inside...5th delta easy winner...5.20....i can only bet 100 at delta..i affect odds..total...+720

20 Feb 2013 8:51 PM
KY VET

jay...didnt bet lute...bet other one.....was asking who people liked between them......yes, i was wrong...figured something wrong...he lost by too much.....it happens................by the way...yes im cheating.....im 3 out of 4 so far....all low prices......anything else to complain about?

20 Feb 2013 8:56 PM
KY VET

delta race 6....got 2nd to 1/5 huge fav.....oh well....total+620

20 Feb 2013 9:02 PM
Plod Boy Phil

KY -

You are correct. An additional $100 to win drops the pay-out to $5.00

20 Feb 2013 9:03 PM
Forbidden Apple

Ranagulzion,

I had no pick in the Capo race. What is a foul tackle? You claimed that I harmed you in some way, what a baby.

Yes, North Slope will need to improve. Not a problem, I think he is a stakes caliber horse for the future.

20 Feb 2013 9:05 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Fair enough - good luck.

20 Feb 2013 9:13 PM
Forbidden Apple

I keep making the mistake of getting my bankroll built up and then losing it back on races that were never on my radar. I can not see betting against Violence or Data Link. And the big A card for saturday is miserable. So my plan is to bet one horse on saturday, win or lose.

20 Feb 2013 9:35 PM
KY VET

ct race 6...out.....3 for 6....total+520

20 Feb 2013 9:35 PM
KY VET

Forbidden.....whats a nice way to say north slope sucks?......Dont bet!....there is a horse better than capo in that race.....tessarrone...

20 Feb 2013 9:42 PM
KY VET

delta 8th...ugly....3 for 7......+420.....

20 Feb 2013 9:56 PM
KY VET

wow...bull rings are fun....trouble city! 3 for 8 total+320

20 Feb 2013 10:02 PM
Forbidden Apple

ky vet,

North Slope does not suck. The horses name is Tesseron and he will be the favorite, no thank you.

20 Feb 2013 10:03 PM
KY VET

UuGGGG! race 9 ded...2nd at 7 to 1!......bullring hell!....+220

20 Feb 2013 10:23 PM
KY VET

ok... good luck apple......just trying to save ya money...

20 Feb 2013 10:30 PM
Mary Zinke

Too much suffering. GL

20 Feb 2013 10:43 PM
Forbidden Apple

KY VET,

What makes you an expert on handicapping? I don't buy any sheets or take tips or hot horses from anyone. Just a racing form and watching races/replays. You did not even know the horses name that you are backing as the odds on favorite.

20 Feb 2013 10:50 PM
Forbidden Apple

I don't understand what would make you say that North Slope sucks, bizarre. He might not be the next coming of Da Hoss, but I believe that he is a classy horse with a bright future. Good luck at Charles Town and Delta Downs.

20 Feb 2013 10:55 PM
KY VET

3 for 10.....lost 6 in row! bullring hell......rediculous total +120

20 Feb 2013 11:00 PM
KY VET

Apple...ive made so much money in the past few years, i no longer need a job....bought a couple horses last year......i cant tell you who i am............look....i went to see what your horse looks like on paper, thinking he had a chance......its unlikely youve even seen the race....admit it.  you probably were waiting for him to run.....he is way, way overmatched.....not my fault...scold me after he wins......hes only had 2 races right? maybe he will improve enough later............

20 Feb 2013 11:05 PM
Forbidden Apple

Wrong again pal, I have the DRF past performances for saturday right in front of me. I was present at his first race in Saratoga, he bled that day. And I did see his second race, he opened up at 8/5 and went off at 5/2. What, do you actually think I picked him blind? Give me a break, have you ever heard of a horse improving? He improved from a first out beyer of 44 to a 70 last out. Your Tesseron ran a 72 beyer last out, not much better. North Slope fits here and will be tough to hold off late. He closed into a 1:14 slow paced race last out.

20 Feb 2013 11:24 PM
Plod Boy Phil

re: Morth Slope

There are at least two in the race that will get more betting action than NS,  Bold Challenger and Tesseron.  The former has solid, albeit neutral,  turf form and should benefit from the 9f race under hs belt after the 7 week gap. Starship Zero impressed us with his MSW win and subsequent Alw1x race, but has not handled the better company in either race at GP.

Good race - Good luck.

20 Feb 2013 11:26 PM
Mary Zinke

Sorry, but has anyone here even asked who you are, KY?  You can keep your secret, but just a hint, if you don't want to be finite, don't give out too much info.

20 Feb 2013 11:28 PM
Forbidden Apple

Unlikely I've seen the race, what a joke. You are starting to act like Newman from Seinfeld, a real agitator. What, are you the only person on this blog that watches races? No respect, but no surprise either.

20 Feb 2013 11:30 PM
JayJay

Pete : You covering any of the last 4 races at Santa Anita on Saturday ?

21 Feb 2013 12:02 AM
Forbidden Apple

Does anyone even care who you are? Reality is that you were talking about yourself. I'm guessing that you have never even heard of North Slope or watched either of his races, some expert.

21 Feb 2013 12:20 AM
Mary Zinke

Jay Jay, Not only do the last races at Santa Anita on Saturday look like a $1 P3 or a $1 or $2 P4, but $16 P6 with all of those downhill races. I like your spend a little to make a lot.  I know you asked Pete, but I will play.

21 Feb 2013 12:35 AM
Mary Zinke

I'd go 1,9,8 in that North Slope race, but I only watched the Kitten's Joy.

21 Feb 2013 12:51 AM
JayJay

Mary : Yeah, that's what I plan to play as well, was hoping to get some help from Pete with a single in the 6th or 7th race.  It's a nice lineup, the last 4 races but tough to handicap.  Good luck, don't forget to post your winning cheap tickets.  Bet Small Win Big!

21 Feb 2013 2:19 AM
Coldfacts

Forbidden Apple,

“I cannot see betting against

Violence or Data Link.”

Consider the following – Orb spotted Violence a 5L advantage at the gates and another 5L when he had to be taken 5 wide for his stretch run and he finished 3rd  by 1L. By any measure, who was the better colt in that race? To mention Orb and Violence in the same sentence is almost sacrilegious.

They now meet again six months later and somehow there is reluctance to bet against Violence. Let me see if I understand the reluctance. Violence got 10L from Orb and defeated him by 1L. In the six months since they last met, Violence has improved 10L and Orb has regressed to the point where he has no chance of defeating him in the FOY. Orb appears to be a lazy sort but this was not apparent when he met Violence. There was a lot of pace in that race provided by Tile Town Five and Orb came flying at the end after being left at the a gates.  

The FOY will be fast and not restricted to these two colts. However, if the option is to wager either Violence or Orb, my vote would go to Orb despite his lazy disposition.

21 Feb 2013 9:21 AM
Forbidden Apple

Both Violence and Orb should improve off from their last races. All i'm saying is that I don't think it is wise to bet against Violence, he's very fast. I don't like to pick favorites often, but Violence is imposing. Elmutahid is the only other horse that got my attention, he is 1/1 on dirt. I'm interested in seeing what he can do on a fast track.

21 Feb 2013 9:50 AM
Dr Drunkinbum

Mike Relva

  Thank you very much. You keep up the good work visiting the horses and being a champion for their health and welfare, which is the most important thing.

21 Feb 2013 10:59 AM
Coldfacts

Falling Sky is a dangerous colt. I like Mr. McLaughlin's colt as well but I do not trust him to run two good races consecutively.

I think the race will set up for Orb with so many high cruisers. In his last race his rider only used the whip on him once. He will not be so gingerly treated by Johnny.

21 Feb 2013 12:07 PM
Forbidden Apple

Did you notice the 1/44 fast workout from Violence? Plus he has a class edge on this field.

Majestic Hussar and Elmutahid have big wins on sloppy tracks. What do you have against McLaughlin?

21 Feb 2013 12:24 PM
Ranagulzion

KY Vet,

I quote you " I loved uncle mo....but only bet him once, in the bcj.........i dont pick 1 horse, and stay on him.....my deal is, every race is different."

I observed that you treat good Graded Stakes horses like you treat Allowance and claimers and your remark above proves it.

Tell me how many races did Uncle Mo win ...yet you bet him only once? After Wise Dan won the Fourstardave Stakes last season I predicted that he'd continue winning for the rest of the season and cop the HOTY title ...that was a three race winning streak ...albeit at low odds ... how many times did you bet him? ... point is, these winning streaks by quality horses can take you places my friend ...think about one less headache when putting together your exotics and your pick fours/sixes ...Rookie!!!

21 Feb 2013 12:31 PM
Forbidden Apple

Winning streaks can take you to places, like the place in your head where you predict a Triple Crown winner 3 years in a row. Eskendereya, Uncle Mo, and Union Rags. Thgis year you have about 6 monsters, with Verrazano being #1.

I understand KY Vet's point, I often find myself going back to a horse because of an emotional attachment, we all do it.

21 Feb 2013 12:37 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Race Watchers-

Did anyone else notice the severe 'paddling' motion in the front left of the runner-up in the Southwest?

I know there have been good horses that were anything but perfect in this regard,  but it may prove problematic down the road.

21 Feb 2013 2:05 PM
El Kabong

Anyone playing the .10 pick six?

Have 3 separators on the ticket,

GP 7th #9

GP 9th #11

GP 10th # 9

Like the 11 in the 9th best.

21 Feb 2013 3:28 PM
Pete Denk

JayJay-

I'm just starting to handicap the Saturday cards. The 9th at SA looks like my type of race. Will see...

21 Feb 2013 5:01 PM
Pete Denk

Re: the 7th at GP Saturday, fascinating race.

Team Valor is super high on Crop Report in there. He will probably take action, but Tesseron should be favored. He has ability and I like the pedigree for turf (Tapit, out of a Hennessy mare).

New blog up in a minute...

21 Feb 2013 5:04 PM
KY VET

Wow...sorry apple....you got the form now i see.......hey, good luck to ya..........put me down when im wrong, after the race......ranag...mo's odds were always too low.....i stayed out and cheered for mo most races.....and, add another big big fav..wise dan to your list......you are not breaking any news again......didnt we all know those horses were good?   so.....you wait until a horse runs 110 beyer opr 108 beyer or 113 beyer....then declare hes a good horse........got it.........youre good!

21 Feb 2013 8:40 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Some of you dont have an imagination,when you find a win machine like Wise Dan or Curlin as examples, you ride them every race because its almost always Win Place and Show for these types.  These horses are so talented that in some of their races their opponents will want to be the ONE that upset the great one, and will run over ambitious races in their quest to defeat them.This will include speed horses running extremely fast opening fractions and pressers making bold mid race moves.These type of trips do one thing they make the race fall apart and even exactas turn out to pay very well.The others that you thought had a chance are burned by chasing the speed and making premature mid race moves.The great ones bide their time because the jockeys know they are on the best horse in the race, and all they have to do is not make any stupid mistakes, and they will probably win or at least place.The odds are mostly based on speed and speed figures so when the race falls apart these single digit odds horses that you thought had a chance to defeat the less than even money favorite are back pedalling nearing the wire.

22 Feb 2013 9:28 PM

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