Derby preps get serious

Two horses will earn their way into the Kentucky Derby (G1) this weekend, as the Fountain of Youth (G2) and Risen Star (G2) stakes both offer 50 Kentucky Derby qualifying points to the winner.

As convoluted as the new points system is, it appears safe to say that 50 points will make the field.

Unfortunately, I think the public will choose the right horse as the favorite in both preps. Undefeated Cashcall Futurity (G2) winner Violence is listed at 9-to-5 on the morning line in the Fountain of Youth. Remsen Stakes runner-up Normandy Invasion is 5-to-2 in the Risen Star. I expect both will go off a click or two below those numbers.

I was not terribly impressed with Violence's first two career wins, but there is no knocking how he shipped East to West to win the Cashcall. By Medaglia d'Oro, Violence is a long striding colt with a fast cruising speed. If Violence comes out running in his first start at age three, someone will have to take a big step forward to beat him.

I see at least three possible candidates to do so, or at least to fill out the vertical exotics. Orb has finally circled back to the promise he showed when finishing third behind Violence in both horses' debuts. Orb's NW1 win on January 26 was fine. He checked back early behind a slow pace, then came home his final three furlongs in :37-2, a good closing fraction for Gulfstream. Another reason to like Orb to get a piece is that there is a lot of speed in here.

Cerro (Ire) won the split division of Orb's allowance race and did so in considerably faster fashion. Showing good energy from start to finish, Cerro set solid fractions and still had something in reserve. I like him on the slight turnback here from just off the pace if he can build on that demanding effort.

Speak Logistics was taken up at a key point in his 3yo debut in the Sam Davis (G3). He was moving nicely at the time, although he faded to 4th late. He can improve here 2nd off the layoff, and that makes him competitive to hit the board. He gets  a positive jock switch to Joel Rosario.

I find the Risen Star to be a slightly deeper race, although again I think the public is going to land on the most likely winner. Normandy Invasion finished second in what was arguably the best/fastest two-year-old race of 2012 -- the Remsen Stakes. Normandy Invasion finishes his races with a rush -- he came home in :36-1 (!) in the Remsen. He should be moving best of all in the long FG stretch on Saturday.

Both Palace Malice and Oxbow figure to be forwardly placed, and the pace could be reasonable. I thought Palace Malice ran well in his 3yo debut when he chased lone speed Majestic Hussar home in the slop at GP. I think Palace Malice has the mind and breeding to stretch out.

Oxbow is unlikely to get the soft pace he got when winning the Lecomte (G3), but that was a solid run nonetheless, and he has a good pedigree for added distance.

Proud Strike has taken a nice step forward in all of his races. He is coming off of a 7 1/2-length maiden win at FG that saw the 2nd and 3rd-place horses come back to win. I think he is a threat to hit the board in his first start vs. winners.

Code West  is one of the tougher reads in this race. He is coming off of a fast second behind Super Ninety Nine, who shipped to Oak Lawn and blitzed the Southwest Stakes on Monday. Code West didn't look terribly smooth in any of his performances, but he does go blinkers off, one of my favorite angles on Bob Baffert trainees.

364 Comments

Leave a Comment:

Ranagulzion

FOY: 1)Violence 2)Majestic Hussar 3)El Mutahid

Risen Star: 1)Oxbow 2)Palace Malice 3)Normandy Invasion

21 Feb 2013 6:16 PM
Little Bill

Phil, saw your comment about the paddling in the So. West. Blatantly obvious. I had him keyed. When that 60-1 came back for 3rd it made my tri box. I had given up on him. Kitten horse is reportedly aiming for the Spiral.

21 Feb 2013 6:34 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Yes, it was so obvious that one could see it clearly in the pan shot.  I guess if a horse is going to paddle,  the slop is as good a place as any...

Congrats on a nice trifecta

21 Feb 2013 6:45 PM
Little Bill

Very disappointed with Proud Strikes post. He's got every reason to get a 1 1/4. Weather says track will be off. Could be soup.

21 Feb 2013 6:45 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Maybe slop will be the Soup of the Day.

21 Feb 2013 6:57 PM
Pete Denk

Jay Jay-

SA 9 won't be one of my feature races in the Locksmith Analysis.

At first look, I'd have to go deep there in the P4. It's not a race I could build a multi-race bet around.

If I get any workout info, will pass it on. I usually gravitate to the second timers.

21 Feb 2013 8:53 PM
Pete Denk
21 Feb 2013 8:55 PM
JayJay

Thanks Pete, still looking forward to the plays.  I already have my picks in the 9th, I was hoping to get some help in the 6th and 7th which is where I'm struggling with hehe.  I'm playing a shot in the big race but it'll be a small P4 ticket, probably $8.

21 Feb 2013 9:45 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Pete-

I can only assume that there were no Smart Plays last weekend.  The stats listed on the Handicapping page of this website are the same stats you provided prior to Saturday, Feb. 16th.  Were all the Locks scratched?  

Not that this applies to you,  but handicappers that sell picks then choose to update the ROI only when things are going well are a dubious lot at best.

Please feel free to correct me if I am off base.

22 Feb 2013 12:03 AM
Pete Denk

Plod-

The Locksmith Smart Plays stats are updated every week with the new picks on Friday.

22 Feb 2013 12:39 AM
Pete Denk

Locksmith was hit with three scratches last week. Went 1-for-4, with Amira's Prince being the only winner.

Tough trip on 8.90-to-1 Miss Scout at Tampa (lacked room stretch). She is a possible bet back at the MSW level on the Tampa turf.

22 Feb 2013 12:46 AM
Pete Denk

For the year, Locksmith Smart Plays are:

46: 13-6-2

Picking 28.2% winners.

$2 win bet ROI is $2.18 (+9%)

$2 WPS is $5.57 (-7%)

22 Feb 2013 12:51 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Thanks Pete-

Good luck this weekend

22 Feb 2013 1:27 AM
JayJay

Pete:  Is the report available now ?

22 Feb 2013 1:34 AM
Pete Denk

Jay Jay-

The report is usually available by noon, every Friday (for Saturday's races).

Plod-

The updated ROI stats appear on the Locksmith report every Saturday, in addition to appearing on the handicapping page, plus whatever I post here.

Hope to see some of you in the chat tomorrow. Some tough cards this week.

22 Feb 2013 2:49 AM
josh

Pete,

How do you feel about Departing's chances to do really well?

I am starting to like your blog more and more, the last guy was, well ok, at best, but I stopped coming on here when he left, until about a a couple months ago. You're doing a nice job here.

Anyways onto the subject.

I feel like Normandy Invasion is really vulnerable here. I feel like the is searching for an easier spot than the FOY. To me, the trainer doesn't have a lot of confidence in his horse. I like Chad Brown, and I am used to him putting his horses in tough spots to see what they're made of, ducking the FOY in his own backyard sends flags. Also, the FG track is kind of funky sometimes, and doesn't really resemble any other track. He should've at least had a workout over it. I am going with Departing 2 starts and 2 wins over the track, Code West as an outsider coming into weak competition from a Barn that is on fire. Proud Strike is a bad bet IMHO, because he is a turf horse. Palace Malice will be over bet because he is from the Pletcher barn.

In the FOY, Violence should win, and Cerro and Orb should be in the top 4. That being said, it's a bad race to bet, because little money will be made.  

Goog Luck Pete and the rest!

22 Feb 2013 8:12 AM
Forbidden Apple

Violence will be around 4/5, enjoy your big score Ranagulzion.

22 Feb 2013 8:32 AM
JayJay

Misrepresented ??  lol.  You'd say anything to market your product.  Sorry, I'm NOT buying it.  I'm sure Fugue and Footlick and maybe a couple others would love to sign up but not me.

Thanks Pete, I'll check out the report later.  Looking forward to the chat later.

22 Feb 2013 10:09 AM
Pete Denk

Josh-

It looks like a tough spot for Departing. He is likely to scratch.

22 Feb 2013 11:04 AM
Pete Denk

JayJay-

I wound up including SA9 in the Locksmith Report afterall.

22 Feb 2013 11:14 AM
Karen in Texas

PBP----I noticed the paddling motion as well, and the thought that went through my mind was, "Isn't that horse bred more for the turf?" Not that it should have anything to do with his motion, but yes, it was noticeable...

Fugue---Having Gary on Proud Strike could be in his favor, given the post #1 draw, in my inconsequential opinion. I'm seeing only a 20% chance of rain now, as opposed to the forecast earlier in the week. Maybe it won't be too sloppy.

www.weather.com/.../USLA0338

22 Feb 2013 11:32 AM
THE KEYMASTER

Plop Boy Phil -

I read your post before it was removed.  It was not correct, so that is why it was maybe removed.  Please only count races that you posted your upgrades before the race was run, not after.

LAUGHABLY YOU HAVE HAD 8 DOWNGRADES WIN WHILE ONLY 6 BOLD UPGRADES HAVE WON!!!

22 Feb 2013 1:07 PM
THE KEYMASTER

Plop-

I had almost 3 pages of college-ruled paper full of your upgrades of any kind (I even gave you credit for races that you picked the winner using more than 1 upgrade) and only 12 won while 8 downgrades won.

22 Feb 2013 1:09 PM
Pedigree Ann

Not convinced by Proud Strike's MSW win, since it was an off-the-turfer. Those next-out winners in second and third, did they win on turf? or another OTT? Beating turf horses on the main track makes the length of the win suspect. The track is listed as having been fast, but 1 1/16 in 1:46 gets a 98 BRIS SF? Had to be a holding surface.

To me, Code West comes in with the most upside. Last out was first-off-the-layoff, ran evenly to next out SW Super Ninety Nine. His full brother Charitable Man finished 4th in the Belmont on an off-track, which FG is likely to have tomorrow as well.

22 Feb 2013 1:15 PM
Pete Denk

BH monitors the comments and approves each one individually. (I usually set it to approve all comments)

Behave everyone, cuz if they have to set it back to manual approval, the discussion will be much less immediate.

Try to stay on topic. Don't spam or post commercial links, and if you are going to get into flame wars, at least be funny.

No one wants to read petty arguing.

I appreciate all the comments. We have a good group of regulars on here.

22 Feb 2013 1:15 PM
El Kabong

And a few irregulars, right Pete?

22 Feb 2013 1:29 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Pedigree Ann -

Code West has received three straight modest upgrades and is the only horse playable from my perspective.

22 Feb 2013 1:38 PM
Pete Denk

True El Kabong!

But I appreciate the irregulars too.

22 Feb 2013 1:49 PM
JayJay

Pedigree Ann : Seems a lot of people are looking at Baffert's Code West.  I thought I saw someone posting $50 win on him in the other blogs.  Now I'm intrigued.  I like my horse Mylute being under the radar but maybe because no one believes his 10L romp at FG and was right not to pay attention to him lol.  I must admit, I don't like Shaun Bridgmohan on him.  I was hoping Miguel Mena or James Grahan would get the mount.  

I'm boxing Speak Logistics with Orb and Violence, this is just one of the early preps.  I don't expect the top contenders for the Derby to win all their preps.  Violence is tough but not unbeatable.  I saw your post in the other blog where you broke down where the last 6 winners of the Derby at this time of the year.  Nice post!

Today's GP Late .50 P4  $10.00 :

07 :  5, 4

08 :  7, 2

09 :  5

10 :  6, 3, 11, 12, 2

22 Feb 2013 1:55 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Low win percentages do not inherently mean low ROIs. The odds of winning horses are what matters.

22 Feb 2013 1:56 PM
Ranagulzion

Forbidden Apple,

Sometimes you can't beat the chalk ...especially Todd Pletchers big gun: Violence. See you in the aftermath.  BTW Palace Malice could give Pletcher a double (although I pick Oxbow to win the Risen Star) and Dreaming of Julia could give him a triple ...what a nightmare for you ...and it isn't even halloween yet.

22 Feb 2013 1:58 PM
2:24

I like Palice Malice in the Risen Star more because he's got Rosie riding at the Fair Grounds.  Always like to remember Risen Star yearly at this time.  To me, one of the most underrated horses of our time and one that clearly could have won the Triple Crown (in a year with other very good 3 year olds) had his Derby run been less troublesome.

22 Feb 2013 2:12 PM
iceman92

hi pete- do you know the racing status of GULFPORT? hope SPEAK LOGISTICS shows what he's got this weekend. good luck to all!

22 Feb 2013 2:22 PM
JayJay

Anyone playing the San Carlos, it's probably one of the best lineups this weekend.  Have a feeling it's going to be a nice trifecta payout.

22 Feb 2013 2:28 PM
Little Bill

Pedigree Ann,

Good point on the next out winners. They both won on the dirt. Perfect Title at 1 1/16, Doc Almon at 6f. Both at FG, both in average times for 3yo at that track.

22 Feb 2013 2:31 PM
El Kabong

Yeah, me too.

22 Feb 2013 2:34 PM
Rusty Weisner

I'm not playing, but for the FOY I'd take Violence, Orb and for the third spot I prefer Cerro to Speak Logistics.  I like it that Cerro showed a change of tactics with the jockey switch, and over this same surface, even if he loses Castellano.

Don't like that Elmutahid & Majestic Hussar have never won on a dry surface.  The post is a disadvantage to some of the outside horses.

Good luck.

22 Feb 2013 2:34 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Here's a downgrade that I will eagerly bet against today:

GP, R8 - 7 Timeless Indy (2-1)

I'll single our double digit ML upgrade.

22 Feb 2013 2:58 PM
Little Bill

Karen,

Thanks for your input. Yeah, Proud Strike is gonna need Gary from that one hole. Hopefully he can get him off the rail a little in the second flight.

I'm actually hoping for a somewhat off track as I think it will move up a horse I like, Golden Soul. I watched his races and he did some pretty nifty stuff. Granted he needs improvement time wise. I havn't followed a Dallas Stewart horse since Dollar Bill,but I will this one, There's always turf to fall back on for this one.

22 Feb 2013 3:01 PM
Rusty Weisner

Looking at the FG past performances, there sure are a lot of races where the winners win by 5-10 open lengths.

22 Feb 2013 3:03 PM
Rusty Weisner

The rain at FG is supposed to last until noon.  I don't if it will be an off track or not.  On a dry track I'd hope for Normandy Invasion to miss the exacta and take Code West, Palace Malice and Oxbow in boxed exactas.

22 Feb 2013 3:11 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Horses that close with visually impressive runs with the aid of Extremely favorable Flows then stretch out in distance as short priced favorites are the worst bets in the game.

22 Feb 2013 4:18 PM
ROBBIEJOE25

Still no Road To The Roses......

22 Feb 2013 5:13 PM
Sam Santschi

Jay Jay,

Like Midnight Transfer in SC.

22 Feb 2013 5:42 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

I like Sahara Sky in the San Carlos at SA. Cash Rules in the Canadian Turf at GP. Proud Strike and Oxbow in the Risen Star. In the FOY I have no idea.

22 Feb 2013 6:08 PM
JayJay

Did anyone see how Bejarano lost that 2nd race at SA ?  He was staring at the 1 horse all the way without taking his whip out.  I was so mad, he cost me a $10 DD lol, that's a big DD play for me.

Sam and Dr. D :  The odds for the SC will be evenly spread out so the trifecta will be a nice play on this race.  Should pay decent regardless of who wins.  I'm singling Justin Phillip in my P4.

Risen Star : Exacta Box with Mylute over Palace Malice, Golden Soul, Code West, Proud Strike and HHE

FOY : Speak Logistics over Orb and Violence.  Will probably play the tri box on those 3.

Pete : Good luck on the smart plays this weekend, like the picks.  I'll play most of the GP picks on my P4.

22 Feb 2013 7:13 PM
Point Given

FOY: (W)Majestic Hussar(P)Cerro(S)Falling Sky

RISEN STAR: (W)Code West(P)Oxbow(S)Normandy.

22 Feb 2013 9:36 PM
KY VET

Daily 10.....sat 23rd

Violence looks much best.......

Gp race 11....# Violence

Aqu race 1 ...#5 classic r&b

Aqu race 3....#6 free brave

aqu race 6...#7 ghostly vision

aqu race 7...#6 erik the red

aqu race 8...#8 IBID

SA race 4 ...#2 splendid fortune

SA race 6....##10 rock off

FG race 9...#7 unlimited budget

gg race 1...#5 hollenita

22 Feb 2013 9:46 PM
Paseana

Pedigree Ann,

Re: Proud Strike's MSW win in an off-the-turf affair, Marcus Hersch was on ATR this morning with Steve Byk, and he pointed out something about that race that's not evident in Proud Strike's PP's.  He was an MTO in that race.  He was entered there in the hopes it would come off the grass, and they got their wish.  He wouldn't have run if it had stayed on.

That can mean different things to different people, but I still thought it was an interesting point that might be worth thinking about, even in a small way.

22 Feb 2013 10:11 PM
predict

2/23/13-GP,R-11,Fountain of Youth,

9-He's had Enough

6-Cerr0

3-Violence

10-Falling Sky

22 Feb 2013 10:22 PM
predict

Longshot play for FoY:

11-SR Quisqueyano, will be overlay,could surprise here with some luck, worth a shot at 30-1 or more.

22 Feb 2013 10:26 PM
Johnny

FOY:

Going with ORB.

Violence will be a little short coming of the layoff.

22 Feb 2013 11:30 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

I'm going with Elmutahid in the FOY.

23 Feb 2013 12:45 AM
Coldfacts

Elmutahid is the only entrant in the FOY that will enter the starting gates without Lasix.

A colt without Lasix, with only a maiden victory to his credit and with a 20-1 ML is opposing a projected 9-5 G1, winner on Lasix. The 6lbs that big bad Violence is allowing Elmutahid has been nullified before they even enter the starting gates.

In the event Elmutahid wins, those administered with the performance enhancer can bypass the Derby.

I think he will run extremely well but with so many juiced horses in the field, how can he be expected  to defeat all?

I wonder if Mr. Pletcher would follow the boys from Dubai and race his charges without Lasix

23 Feb 2013 1:53 AM
Mary Zinke

Fountain Of Youth: Violence, He's Had Enough, Falling Sky, Majestic Hussar.

Jay Jay, narrowed down SAP6: 2/3,7/2,5/7/6,7/8,10.

San Carlos: Sahara Sky,Capital Account, Justin Phillip.

23 Feb 2013 7:33 AM
Pete Denk

Trying to figure out multi-race coverage, and I am warming to #8 Force Multiplier in a wide open nightcap at GP.

He stretches out second off the layoff for a trainer who does well with that move. I liked his determined run on 1-16-13. He's the 8 in this replay.

www.bloodhorse.com/.../race-7

23 Feb 2013 9:34 AM
JayJay

Pete : If you like the 8, you should check out Surfspun's last race.  He's stretching out from 5Fs to a mile, I think he's a big play today.  I'm playing him with 4, 11 and 12 on my P4.

23 Feb 2013 12:08 PM
Pete Denk

JayJay-

Those outside posts going a mile on the GP turf are difficult to win from.

Surf Spun is playable blinkers on. Give the 1 a look, first time turf for Mott/Juddmonte.

23 Feb 2013 12:12 PM
JayJay

Mary : Good luck on your P6, don't forget me if you hit the big one!.  I'm almost done with my late P4, race 6 and 7 are tough.  For the P6, I have the rest picked out...but the first leg, I always check the post parade when picking who I'm using.

Good luck to all playing real money today!

23 Feb 2013 12:12 PM
Pete Denk

IN SA9, positive workout info on Blue Cherokee, Boss of Me, and Uno Dos Adios, fwiw.

23 Feb 2013 12:20 PM
Mary Zinke

FG r7 Two Months Rent.

23 Feb 2013 12:28 PM
josh

Thanks for letting me know, Pete.

I'll be going with a Tri box with Mylute, Code West, Normandy Invasion, and Golden Soul.

FOY, Tri Box, I'm going with Cerro, Violence, Orb, and Elmutahid.

Good luck to all!

23 Feb 2013 12:40 PM
Mary Zinke

I'm probably playing P3's and the late P4, Jay Jay. That P6 would be "underfunded". Those were just my top picks.

23 Feb 2013 12:41 PM
Mary Zinke

Jay Jay, SA r6, I'd use 2,5,10; r7, 1,3,7, possibly 6. Pretty chalky.

23 Feb 2013 1:09 PM
Mary Zinke

FOY: Violence, He's Had Enough, Majestic Hussar, Elmutahid.

23 Feb 2013 1:18 PM
JayJay

Pete : Thanks for that info.  I might drop the 12 for the 2.  I did look at the 1 horse, I always check the Mott horses first, he's one of my favorite trainers on the east coast.  I'm not playing him though, he's got Kent and I don't bet anything he rides, even if it's a Mott horse.

23 Feb 2013 1:32 PM
Mary Zinke

Risen Star: Palace Malice, Mylute, Code West, Circle Unbroken.

23 Feb 2013 2:02 PM
trackjack

FOY: #3 Violence to win, box 3, 1 Orb and 6 Cerro for Ex.

Risen Star: #10 Oxbow to win big, Oxbow over #9 Normandy Invasion and #1 Proud Strike exactas.

Will comment later on No RTTR, sad.  Anyone have any info on this?  

Good Luck to all.  

23 Feb 2013 4:11 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Dominant Jeannes......YES !

Live Blog participants yesterday were given this one, compliments of you know who.

23 Feb 2013 4:15 PM
Billy Stick

FOY: 1.Cerro 2. Elmutahid 3. Sr. Quisqueyano

RISEN STAR: 1. Palace Malice 2. Proud Strike 3. Mylute

23 Feb 2013 4:35 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Orb:

Not a bad one horse Derby List.

23 Feb 2013 5:44 PM
i812many

smokin fractions!!! ORB much the best! amazing run. Did not look like he wanted more ground. But what a great run! WOW!!.....(for today)

23 Feb 2013 5:45 PM
Plod Boy Phil

then again,  how hard is it to pass a Stop sign ?

23 Feb 2013 5:47 PM
Kevin

Very impressed with Violence in Fountain of Youth.  Started to come back when headed even after those trying fractions.  

23 Feb 2013 5:50 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

ORB backers your pick is in the Derby,Violence will have to run again.No excuse but the pace for 6furlongs was very fast.

23 Feb 2013 5:59 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Kevin -

Correct.

Violence ran HUGE and is the one to watch from the race.

23 Feb 2013 6:02 PM
KY VET

Violence came back because he pulls himself up when he gets lead.......though v lost race on backstretch...........

23 Feb 2013 6:16 PM
KY VET

Daily 9 results.....2 for 9......200w per race -340......19 race total....-220.....bad days for me.....

23 Feb 2013 6:18 PM
Kevin

One of the first things my handicapping mentor told me was never to bet fairgrounds.  That long stretch, anything can happen.

Thought Oxbow ran well after going wide and Code West came back after being headed by 3 horses.  But don't see any of them as making impacts in the Derby.  

23 Feb 2013 6:31 PM
Kevin

Chief, I'm glad Violence will run again.  This is the perfect building block.  who wants to go into the Derby off a 9 week layoff?

23 Feb 2013 6:39 PM
Plod Boy Phil

FOY:  Early Flow figure

Closer favoring, but not as significant as early splits might indicate. Orb gets reduced from standard upgrade to neutral.

Risen Star:  Tough beat for those of us that backed Code West (the second of two upgrades posted on the Live Blog).

23 Feb 2013 6:46 PM
Mary Zinke

I hope you went with Bejarano on Passing Game in SA r 7, Jay Jay, since you said you go by top jockeys. I didn't have the 2.

Congrats to anyone who had I've Struck A Nerve.

23 Feb 2013 6:54 PM
trackjack

KY VET:  Good point.

As has been pointed out before, ORB has to be ridden hard, even into fast fractions.  When he came to Violence, ORB pulled himself up, allowing a resurgent Violence to come back.  Both colts are still figuring it out.  Pletcher has some homework to do with Violence as does Shug with the "Cold-hearted ORB."

10 weeks to the Derby.  Where will they go next?  

23 Feb 2013 6:59 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

JayJay

   My San Carlos tri- 5-6-3.

23 Feb 2013 7:03 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

box and straight

23 Feb 2013 7:05 PM
Mary Zinke

YEAH, Sahara Sky !!!

Yeah, Dan !

23 Feb 2013 7:17 PM
papillon

good call on sahara sky drunkinbum, and on code west pedigree ann!

i was on the rail just in front of the finish line at the foy today, and i have to say, based on how he looked before the race, i didn't give orb a chance--he looked awful, was dripping with sweat...

the two best looking horses were elmutahid and violence.

i think the early pace is what did poor el in--he was in the mix until the turn and then ran out of gas--dead last...hope he's ok =(

mus say that violence is one beautiful animal--on looks alone, he's one of the finest tb's i've seen in a long time...

don't know why anyone is knocking orb--he was already with the front runners on the turn for home in 1:08.8, which is smoking fast, even at GP--and despite the fast early fractions, he and violence still came home in 1:42, which is quite respectable.

i'm impressed with both tbh (violence hanging on after those early splits is pretty dang impressive), but i wouldn't be surprised if neither makes the ky derby starting gate...3 yo stars at GP have an unfortunate habit of suffering season and career ending injuries by the end of their early spring efforts at GP...plus with violence, you have to wonder if he's just another quality road, who backed up to canada over 9f.

well, the longstanding foy trend of the high weights losing, is alive and well =)

if the other foy trend holds--orb has no chance in the ky derby...

hope someone cashed on that 135-1 risen star winner!

23 Feb 2013 7:55 PM
Ranagulzion

Johnny 22 Feb 2013 11:30 PM

Very good call in the FOY. I think that it was the weight moreso than the lay-off that made the difference.  The winner Orb is a good colt under the care of a rejuvinated Shug McGaughey, however I believe that Violence will have his measure at level weights in the Derby, espcially with another race nder his belt before the first Saturday in May.  

I don't like what looks likely to be the inevitble elimination of a speed horse like Majestic Hussar under this points system.  This colt, under the Graded Earnings system could've continued his development in another sprint such as the Swale and be primed to have a shot at routing for the first time in the Derby and delivering the kind of pace that has made the Kentucky Derby a truly run race from start to finsh.  With the trainer being forced to rush a speedy colt like this that has some stamina in his pedigree, into a route this early, the Derby pace and ultimately the quality of the race, is bound to be adversely affected ...mark my words.  

23 Feb 2013 7:59 PM
Rusty Weisner

That's two years in a row at FG.  Why was that horse 135-1 when it was 30-1 on the ML and had been competitive in a stakes (Hero of Order had been 4th in the Risen Star, I think, his last out)?  Sometimes bettors run irrationally from a horse.  I'll have to make a note to myself to bet ones like that. Glad I wasn't playing.  

23 Feb 2013 8:05 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

papillon

    Thanks, I like Speak Logistics a little better as a Derby horse out of the FOY. I'm not seeing Vilence as a Derby contender although he is a very nice horse. Elmutahid was in way over his head and on the wrong surface although he could run well on the CD dirt if he ever had the chance. A turfer for sure but has a ways to go. Except for the sweat Orb looked good pre-race. Well muscled, it seemed on the screen but i did notice the sweat. I don't even know what the temp was. Nice that you could be there. Sahara Sky has turned into a monster and unless injured won't be slowing down anytime soon. Speed and stamina.

23 Feb 2013 8:33 PM
El Kabong

Risen Star,

Hats off to the horse that fooled us all. He's no fluke. His pedigree is well in line with horses who can take on more and keep improving. Easy to write him off because so many don't appreciate FG, but this horse should get better with distance. He had an average pace to run at but he's going to get a faster pace than that in the Derby so I'm not going to kick him to the curb because we didn't see it. His damsire hit the board in every leg of the triple crown, and did best in the Belmont. He even passed that effort on to one son, VIctory Gallop and gave a good dose of staying power to Valponi.  So there is enough classic breeding that has been handed down from his damsire  to take him serious. Steve Johnson of Margaux Farm said of Cryptoclearance, “He was a ‘breed-shaping’ horse, and his influence will be passed down over the years through not only his sons, but very significantly, through his daughters. His contribution to the breed is that of soundness, stamina, and above all else heart—traits that he and his offspring have displayed in the races that define class in our breed." I hope Mr. Johnson's right. It would be fun to see some crypto-quality in this guy.

23 Feb 2013 8:46 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Ranag-

Have to disagree with the take on Majestic Hussar.  He ran his eyes out, and maybe now he'll be rewarded with a chance to breath and be a better horse because of it.

Let's just see what happens in year one before getting them in a bunch.

23 Feb 2013 9:14 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Papillon-

Orb was the only horse on my Derby List(posted here and at SH) after I had to remove Treasury Bill following a neutral effort in the San V.  That said, today's good result will not prevent me from making an objective analysis of the FOY.

The fact is, Orb was still 5.5 lengths off the 1:08.9 three quarter split,  which is anything but 'up w/ the leaders'.  At that point in the race, most were already in a serious deceleration mode. In the event the top two meet again,  I'd have no hesitation in backing today's runner-up at what will most likely be more even odds.

It's not how fast they run, it's how they run fast.

Good luck.

23 Feb 2013 9:41 PM
JayJay

I'll take that trifecta in the FOY,, would've been better if Speak Logistics got 2nd but I'll take it.  I said before, it was interesting that JV got the call on Orb over Rosario and it shows.   I'm glad to see JV going to the dance again and again, not on a Pletcher horse.  Agree with papillon on Orb though, it's hard to gauge a horse winning at GP for the Kentucky Derby.

Mary : I did have Bejarano, that's the kind of odds I love playing.  Unfortunately, as I said here, I singled Justin Philips in the 8th, and was done after that.  Good thing though, cause I didn't have the 7 on the last leg.  Nice pick in the San Carlos, hope you played the exacta!

Dr. D!  Nice call on Sahara Sky, hope you played some win money on him!   I vote for a re-run of the Risen Star and I'm not talking about replays!  I always play James Graham when he's a longshot but I just couldn't play him in the Risen Star.  This is why I wanted him on Mylute!

23 Feb 2013 10:43 PM
Carlos in Cali

Ranagulzion

The Slews' have your "Poodles" surrounded. LOL

Super99 and Orb: Now remind us again how your supposed LDS mysteriously shows itself the 1st Saturday in May?...

Speak easy my friend. I think you meant they get better with age,not that they lack the precocity to win Stakes during their early development stage.

Did Code West enhance Super99's resume somewhat?.. or was that just an average field of sophmores out there Louisianna. Normandy Invasion ran pretty good after getting off to a slow start,look for big time improvement,I'm thinking he goes in the Wood. Orb and Violence will improve next out(no brainer),but I'd take Orb over Violance @ 10f. I don't think they'll see each other until the Derby though. The latter will most likely stay for the Fla.Derby and Orb will probably head back-up to NY for the Wood,a top 3 finish should be enough points for him.

23 Feb 2013 10:57 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Carlos -

I don't think Super99's resume needed enhancing,  but if it did,  it would not come in the form of a runner up performance in a race in which the top five were separated by less than two lengths.

Since you used my term 'no brainer',  I'll go ahead and respond to the notion that Orb will improve in his next start.  He will not, even if he gets another favorable Flow, which seems unlikely. In the remote chance that he does 'improve'(what are the criteria to determine the improvement?) are we to expect he'll fire another in the Derby?

23 Feb 2013 11:24 PM
papillon

phil, it's all good =)

differing opinions do not equal one being objective and the other being subjective--they're just two people interpreting data differently. and considering that even the best punters only average about 35%, this isn't exactly a scientific endeavor =)

as for orb's effort--most closers don't run 46.5 halfs--to me that alone justifies his 32.5 final 1/4 and change. his final half furlong was in 6.87--which compares pretty favorably with the final half furlongs run in last year's prep races, set by horses running much slower internal fractions.

at the 3/4 snap shot, he was 5 lengths behind majestic hussar, but he wasn't 5 lengths behind the 2nd,3rd, and 4th placed horses.

to my mind, in a 9 horse field, to have moved up to the tail of the 4th place horse, and to have been catching and passing each horse in front of him with each stride--is "up with the leaders." if it isn't for you, that's ok (the horses weren't bunched, but were in a line, so i guess that may influence one's definition of what constitutes the leaders).

but to look at orb's position at the 3/4 mark statically, seems unproductive to me--he was catching and passing horses, who based on their internal fractions, were hardly backing up in the conventional sense.

they were slowing down for sure (all horses except stone cold closers do), but even majestic hussar, after having run a 45 half and a 1:08.8 3/4, and who went on to run a 1:36 mile, and a 1:43.80 8.5f, would have beaten almost every one of last year's ky derby prospects in all of their prep races last year. and hussar came home in about the same time that many of them did last year--but he had an honest excuse for doing so after having set the early fractions that he did.

i agree that it's how you run fast, not necessarily how fast you run--i just feel that every horse in this race, even the dead last runner, elmutahid, ran better fast than any of the 3 yo's last year. elmutahid ran 23.5, 45.9, 1:10, 1:38, and 1:45.6 (after basically having been pulled up after 3/4).

for sure, raw times have to be taken with a grain for salt, but no matter how you slice it, a 1:10 6f at GP is up there with the best horses who've run at GP--and 1:08 6f is...eye-popping.

when you look over past performances of good horses, you see that different tracks and different variants don't vary their final times at given distances, or their internal fractions, all that much--good horses are fairly consistent where ever they run, with their variations usually measured in fractions of a second, not full seconds (in fact that's what i would argue is the chief difference between good horses and claimers--claimers lack consistency, not necessarily raw speed).

anywho, if anyone in thread is objective, it's me--i watched this race without any opinion on any of the runners in it. the only bet i placed was on elmutahid, and that was because he went off 35-1. none of the 3 yo's this year had moved me beyond "meh," before today's race. i certainly wasn't an orb fan going in. and i wouldn't say i'm one now--GP is my home track, i've seen what happens too many times to foy winners--and going on to win the ky derby isn't one of them (no horse since thunder gulch in 1995 has gone on to win the ky derby from a foy win, and quite few of its runners have had skip the ky derby altogether due to injuries sustained by their efforts in this race--along with the holy bull and the fl derby).

but i admit i was very impressed at the track today with both violence and orb--and after re-watching the race and checking the trackus t charts, i'm pretty impressed with whole field.

if i've become partial to any horse it's probably violence, just because he is such a magnificent looking horse.

24 Feb 2013 12:12 AM
Coldfacts

Ranagulzion,

“Even at the weights disadvantage, Violence should trample this field.”

My quotes:

“The above extract from your post is yet another example of how easily you submit over the top statement.”

“You have a lot of experience and should be more measured is your declarations.”

“The race is filled with intrigue and you have chosen to ignore same and proceed to make an absurd prediction.”

It is interesting that you are now attributing Violence lost to the weight he allowed Orb.  Based on your statement above the weight allowance would have been non-impacting as Violence was far superior to the field. Are you aware that he allowed between 4-6lbs to the entire field. Only one colt finished ahead of him. The weight was therefore not the reason for Violence lost. He was simply beaten by a better horse. You have chosen to ignore the fact that had Obr not squandered his chances at the gates when he met Violence six months ago, he would have defeated him. He surrendered a 10L advantage and was only beaten 1L. Revisit the video.

As for Violence it is unlikely that he will want to see his feed bucket tonight. The race was a brutal one for the colt and I fear he will be knocked out for some time. This colt’s participation in the Derby is now very questionable. The Pletcher faithful’s should now focus on Revolutionary as  he appear to be the best of the Todd Squad.

24 Feb 2013 12:18 AM
JayJay

On a different note, Ground Transport continues to impress.  He won the 4th race at FG today.   Hope they go to the Louisiana Derby next to get him the points.

Ranagulzion : Just checked the Points leaderboard and looks to me the top contenders are all in the top 20.  Just curious who you think should and should not be in there since you're still complaining about the new points system.  Looks like so far, it's working.

24 Feb 2013 1:56 AM
Matthew W

I like three runners to at The Great Race Place, all wearing saddlecloth #1----Race 3 Olisblackgold, as I love Dollase, and I love the way this race looks to unfold, with Oli just sitting back off the pace duel, at 8-1, has only won twice, but it was on dirt, the favorites may be distance challenged, there's lots to like about Olisblackgold Tom.......Race 6 Maddog Maddie, I'm thinking she wants the sprint distance, she favors grass, her mama was a one-turn dynamo, I'm thinkin' Maddie is very live Tom, and she may creep up to 10, 12-1......the other #1 is in Race 5, Smoken Legacy, and I love him, too! His recent win was eye-catching! So that's three #1's, and in the Sensational Star I like #7 Cat Talk, and 4-1 looks mighty fine to me!

24 Feb 2013 3:00 AM
Plod Boy Phil

papillon-

All good indeed.

The least impressive performance was that of Speak Logisitcs.

Good luck.

24 Feb 2013 6:07 AM
longwaytomay

RE- Violence

First race back from a layoff running in a prep for a prep. Stalked fairly fast fractions, passes the leaders and takes over in the stretch, loses focus and idles a bit, and then gets caught by a stone cold closer by a head. Throw him off your list everybody, it's obvious that he is not Derby material.

24 Feb 2013 8:43 AM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Kevin I think Violence as well as Orb should come back in the Florida Derby, if it happens it will help the new points qualifying system gain traction in the eyes of the people who support this game, the bettors.

Ranagulzion I am glad that the new points system will keep colts who up to now have only shown graded ability sprinting like M Hussar,out of the Derby, it reminds me of the Triniberg factor in last years Derby.I was one of the bloggers who predicted he would finish last.

Last years Derby would have been a lot closer finish at the wire if not for the sprinter being entered.

24 Feb 2013 8:50 AM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

As far as the winner of the Risen Star ISAN,if he dosent run at another venue, as it stands now he will not make a top ten Derby list for me,not that I  am going to formulate one.I try to keep it simple, and keep a short list in my mind, and ad the probables in 3rd and 4th if betting super.

24 Feb 2013 9:01 AM
Closer

A couple of observations about the FOY and Risen Star-----Violence was a little too close to a very fast pace and that along with his habit of waiting on other horses when he gets to the lead cost him the race.------- Normandy Invasion blew the RS at the start and had a horrible trip,yet only got beat by 1 1/2 lengths--tough luck for that colt,he was clearly the best horse in that race.

24 Feb 2013 9:30 AM
Coldfacts

Closer,

“Violence was a little too close to a very fast pace and that along with his habit of waiting on other horses when he gets to the lead cost him the race.”

I find your claim that Violence has a habit of waiting on others horses when he gets to the lead interesting. Can you enlighten us with the evidence to support this claim?

Think about how absurd a concept you and others have repeatedly advanced. A horse under a heavy drive; felling stings from its rider’s whip and tiring rapidly due of the effect of lactic acid, has time to focus on waiting on other horses. With all due respect, it’s bundle of malarkey that you should not endorse.

Horses in their natural habitat gallop in packs and this concept is applicable there not in thoroughbred racing. In their natural habitats they do not have  tiny humans armed with whips who require them to sustain their gallops long after the effects of lactic acid has unleashed its devastating effect on their systems. Some horse will idle when by themselves and this is purely a lack of focus. This action should not viewed as an act of  waiting on members of their pack.

24 Feb 2013 10:23 AM
El Kabong

Closer,

Watch that race(RS) again. I am a fan of NI, and I think he will do fine next out, especially when you consider the observation you made, but take a good look at who is back there with NI, in fact, behind NI at the clubhouse turn.

Violence also spotted Orb a few pounds. He'll do better next out as well when tables level a bit and all the cobwebs are blown out of his lungs.

24 Feb 2013 10:23 AM
Closer

Ok Coldfacts,instead of "waiting on other horses" I'll accept your words that he tends to idle when he gets to the front by himself and loses some focus. Whatever one wishes to call it it's not good and Pletcher has to come up with a way of correcting this problem.

24 Feb 2013 11:03 AM
Mary

I've Struck a Nerve is a really nice horse.  The tail side of his pedigree is outstanding and is loaded with stamina.  He has been training at Fair Grounds, and his last workout was unbelieveable.  I live in New Orleans, so this horse is special to me.  

24 Feb 2013 11:49 AM
Mary

JayJay, I also loved seeing Johnny V. doing the dance on a horse not trained by T. Pletcher. JV didn't miss the dance last year in the Belmont aboard my all time favorite horse, Union Rags.  I just love Johnny V.

24 Feb 2013 12:15 PM
Mary

El Kabong, you are so right, I've Struck a Nerve is a horse to watch closely.  Mr. Johnson is right about Cryptoclearance.  I've Struck a Nerve has a fantastic female line.  He went 6 wide to win the Risen Star; a late bloomer IMO. This is his trainer's first stakes win; so all the focus in his barn will be on this lovely horse.

24 Feb 2013 12:42 PM
derbygal

Just heard on HRTV that Violence is hurt, and is off the Derby trail.  

24 Feb 2013 1:03 PM
papillon

the foy youth takes its first victim--violence fractured his sesamoid, probably out til the fall...this race is cursed =(

24 Feb 2013 1:11 PM
papillon

the foy youth takes its first victim--violence fractured his sesamoid, probably out till fall...this race is cursed =(

24 Feb 2013 1:13 PM
Karen in Texas

Yes, the account I read said Violence has a fractured front sesamoid.

24 Feb 2013 1:13 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Colfacts I quote you in the 10:23 post refuting Closers opinion:

tiny humans armed with whips  dont let the trainer read this or his agent will have to find alternatives.

24 Feb 2013 1:36 PM
Mary

I'm genuinely sorry to hear the sad news.  Violence is a spectacular looking horse.  Union Rags won the FOY last year; I guess he was lucky. IMO the distance was too much for Violence; he's a sprinter.

24 Feb 2013 1:38 PM
papillon

sorry for the double post--not sure what happened.

mary--violence didn't fracture his sesamoid because he's a sprinter, he fractured his sesamoid because he's lightly raced, very young horse, with immature bones, who ran a 121 bris figure around the 2nd turn, carrying 122lbs. the force his legs were experiencing around the turn had to be unbelievable. when is the last time a horse received a 121 bris figure?

very, very sad news--now they're saying he's likely done for good =(

sad, sad end for such a sublime specimen--he deserved better =(

24 Feb 2013 1:54 PM
KY VET

daily 10.....4th race #8 Dogwood LANCE....tampa

24 Feb 2013 2:02 PM
Carlos in Cali

PBP

I do believe Orb will improve from here on out,simply because Shug is patient with his charges and will have him peaking for the Derby. IMO,There's more in the tank.

Orb has shown he can close into any kind of pace,he won't be seeing 1:08 4/5 splits anytime soon,therefore he won't be hard ridden so early in order to keep-up with the leaders. @ Gulfstream Park.. speed kills.

Too bad for Violence! Sucks!

24 Feb 2013 2:08 PM
Mary Zinke

That is horrible news about Violence, but I don't believe that there is a curse on this race or the trainer.

Jay Jay, the $1 ex box plus 10 across on Sahara Sky. Lost $12 on that late P4.  P6 didn't look too tough, but there's a big carryover today. GL if you're playing.    

24 Feb 2013 2:17 PM
KY VET

Aqu race 5 #5 in harms way

24 Feb 2013 2:18 PM
Johnny

Thanks Ran:

I was at the paddock and ORB was getting worked up some.

Come Derby day with 100,000 plus fans their.

Just keep that in the back of your mind on derby day.

24 Feb 2013 2:21 PM
KY VET

tam...race 5 #8 notta boat

24 Feb 2013 2:29 PM
KY VET

where do you get 121 bris fig?

24 Feb 2013 2:31 PM
KY VET

gp race 5 #4 coosada

24 Feb 2013 2:36 PM
KY VET

hou race 2 #2 looks like gold

24 Feb 2013 2:47 PM
Pete Denk

Sorry to hear Violence was injured. That was a huge effort off the layoff.

Wonder if this injury was related to what was seen in the (disputed) recent failed vet exam.

24 Feb 2013 2:51 PM
KY VET

hou..winner 8.40......fg race 3 max the knife

24 Feb 2013 2:58 PM
Pete Denk

Money's Worth,a Locksmith pick on 1-26-13 and stable mail tab from that troubled effort, ran a troubled 2nd at 19-1 in the opener today at GP...

Lot of tough trips for me this weekend.

24 Feb 2013 3:00 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Coldfacts -

I believe you were the first and only one here to have the post race opinion that Violence would be KO'ed by the effort.

24 Feb 2013 3:03 PM
KY VET

gp race 6 #5 one foxy grey

24 Feb 2013 3:05 PM
KY VET

I know the feeling.......horse #2 fractured sesamoid last fall.....just started jogging...be ready in about 3 more months....since he didnt look lame after race, it must not be too bad......can make it back, although there are alot of differences in severity...

24 Feb 2013 3:09 PM
KY VET

tamp race 6 #8 rakellish

24 Feb 2013 3:14 PM
KY VET

tamp race 6 #8 rakellish

24 Feb 2013 3:14 PM
KY VET

aqu race 7 #4 danceteria

24 Feb 2013 3:18 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Pete-

I suppose if I were to mention after the fact that the lone upgrade in the GP 1st was Corinthiano (vs an Extreme for Closers last out), such a post would be censored....

24 Feb 2013 3:20 PM
KY VET

aqu race 7 ...winner 7.50

24 Feb 2013 3:25 PM
Mary Zinke

KY, Looks Like Gold--nice.

Who do you like in the Sensational Star, SA r 8?  I like Ain't No Other, Cat Talk, A Toast To You, Circa's.

24 Feb 2013 3:25 PM
derbygal

Santa Anita:

Race 4 #'s 4,7

Race 6 #'s 5,8

Race 8 #'s 7,8,1

24 Feb 2013 3:29 PM
KY VET

sa race 1 #3

24 Feb 2013 3:31 PM
Plod Boy Phil

VET-

I think Danceteria was one of two free picks on a handicapping website I frequent...

24 Feb 2013 3:32 PM
KY VET

gp race7 #7 longshot wp pheobe moon

24 Feb 2013 3:38 PM
Ranagulzion

Carlos in Cali,

I'm happy for you and those AP Indy "Slews": Orb and Super Ninety Nine. You might wantto add Transparent to your list (he's the one I think is most dangerous).  However don't count your chicken before they're hatched my friend.  Good luck.

Jay Jay,

Its early days yet so I answer your question more fully later. Suffice it for now to say that I think that Majestic Hussar showed that he belongs, but will this new points system let him in?  He ran a huge race on the front end and stayed on doggedly for the fourth spot but another race like that will knock him out for the Kentucky Derby and I doubt if the connections will bother to try any further. His absence will be a quality loss to the race IMO.

Coldfacts,

I'll admit to underestimating Orb's quality but it is disingenuous of you to deny that the 6lb weight advantge got Orb his narrow victory ...plus the fact which we now know, that Violence got ijured during the race. Apart from Orb, my statement of Violence trapling the field wasn't far off, given the seven lenghts gap to the third placed runner, Speak Logistic.

I must congratulate you for regaining some handicapping respectability by touting the winner, Orb. More power to you buddy.  

24 Feb 2013 3:45 PM
KY VET

aqu race 8 #3

24 Feb 2013 3:48 PM
KY VET

tam race 7 #4

24 Feb 2013 3:53 PM
KY VET

sa race 2 #5

24 Feb 2013 4:01 PM
KY VET

horrible day.....dont know whats happening.....must start to win..

24 Feb 2013 4:07 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Coldfacts (tiny humans armed with whips)This is your most quotable statement that you have EVER POSTED and I wont forget it.I will always have it in the back of my mind when you copy and paste any part of a statement that I post and use it out of context for your LOONEY FACTS that support whatever arguement you are making on this blog.BTW I think the HBPA should hold a hearing and disarm these tiny humans.  

24 Feb 2013 4:13 PM
Plod Boy Phil

The second free pick on that handicapping website just took a tough beat at 5-1 in GP's 8th - perhaps a bit 'Quick to Zip'....

24 Feb 2013 4:15 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

KYVET I like Gullivers Travels today as a tiny upgrade,hes by Well Armed winner of the Dubai World Cup.

24 Feb 2013 4:15 PM
KY VET

ok lets start winning....gg race 2 #1 Brite judy

24 Feb 2013 4:16 PM
KY VET

ok lets start winning....gg race 2 #1 Brite judy

24 Feb 2013 4:16 PM
KY VET

aqu race 9 #1a

24 Feb 2013 4:18 PM
KY VET

tam race 8 #2 channel the green

24 Feb 2013 4:24 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Matthew W -

That's a winning day for you - well done with Oilisblackgold.

24 Feb 2013 4:36 PM
KY VET

gg race 3 #4 apache scout

24 Feb 2013 4:44 PM
KY VET

tamp race 9 #5 inca stone

24 Feb 2013 4:46 PM
KY VET

sa race 4 #6 mark of a gem

24 Feb 2013 4:49 PM
KY VET

sa race 4 winner 11.00        gg race 4 #6 dalek

24 Feb 2013 5:17 PM
KY VET

tam race 10...split dutch 2 longshots #1 #2......win both

24 Feb 2013 5:26 PM
KY VET

sa race 5 #1 smokin legacy

24 Feb 2013 5:34 PM
KY VET

gg race race 5 #3 doll room

24 Feb 2013 5:42 PM
KY VET

sa race 6 #5 yawannagokid

24 Feb 2013 5:55 PM
KY VET

gg race 6 #1 gutshot str.

24 Feb 2013 5:57 PM
Plod Boy Phil

I believe we are witnesses to an imPROsion.

24 Feb 2013 6:14 PM
derbygal

Chad Brown says Wood the most likely spot for Normandy Invasion's next start after unlucky run in the Risen Star.

24 Feb 2013 6:20 PM
KY VET

gg race 7 #4 another flashback

24 Feb 2013 6:26 PM
KY VET

tup race 8 #5 pats paradise

24 Feb 2013 6:28 PM
KY VET

sa race 7 #2 spellbound

24 Feb 2013 6:32 PM
KY VET

sa race 7 winner 10.80

24 Feb 2013 6:42 PM
KY VET

tup race 9 #5 slyly

24 Feb 2013 6:50 PM
KY VET

sa race 8 #5 starspangeld heat

24 Feb 2013 6:59 PM
KY VET

gg race 8 #4 regulus

24 Feb 2013 7:01 PM
KY VET

tup winner r 9  slyly 5.80

24 Feb 2013 7:05 PM
Mary Zinke

Thanks for the feedback about the Sensational Star, KY. Very nice win by Ain't No Other. Hope you had him.

24 Feb 2013 7:18 PM
KY VET

gg race 8 winner 5.80

24 Feb 2013 7:25 PM
KY VET

update....tup r9.....winner dq'd.....no win

24 Feb 2013 7:30 PM
KY VET

sa race 9 #6 shes actceptional

24 Feb 2013 7:34 PM
JayJay

Ranagulzion : MH would not have made enough money to qualify under the old system running 4th in the FOY so he needs to run one more and hit the board if he's going to make the field.  Also, why the emphasis on having speed in the field ?  Why is that a requirement for you ?  and why MH ? Are you saying if MH doesn't make it, there won't be pace in the derby ?  You felt the same way last year, that Trinniberg needed to get in, he deserved it because you thought he was a 10F horse and there would be legitimate pace  ( was it to benefit UR? ).  If none of the speedballs make it to the derby, there's still someone that will set the pace, the speedballs doesn't need to make the derby for it to have a pace.  Just a thought...

24 Feb 2013 7:40 PM
woodshade

KY VET -

Do you think people really care who you bet ?

24 Feb 2013 7:47 PM
Mary Zinke

I care, but then I'm so intrigued and all.

24 Feb 2013 8:05 PM
El Kabong

derbygal,

Thanks. That's a good spot for NI. Let's hope he gets some pace to run at, and a track in good shape.

24 Feb 2013 8:11 PM
derbygal

Possibles for  

Sat., Mar. 2      Aqueduct G3 Gotham Stakes   $400,000.

Overanalyze

Vyjack

Honorable Dillon

Escapefromreality

Siete de Oros

Ore Pass

Elnaawi

Sky Captain

West Hills Giant

Alcolite

Champion Boy

24 Feb 2013 8:39 PM
JayJay

Mary : Just got done scrolling back to your post, took me almost 2 hours scrolling back.  Good job on Sahara Sky!   I didn't get to play today.

24 Feb 2013 9:09 PM
Ranagulzion

Jay Jay,

Under he Grade Earnings system Majestic Hussar most likely would've skipped the FOY and gone for qualifying earnings in the Swale Stakes (possibly going the Trinniberg route of the Bay Shore or taking a shot at the Florida Derby when he's hd a little more seasoning).

Pace makes the race, Jay jay, no doubt about it.  I like pacey horses that have some stamina influences in the pedigree (whether they'e shown it or not) to be in the Kentucky Derby ...make the race much more exciting and ensures that a good horse wins the race ...not one that steals it by slowing the pace on the front end.

Regarding last year, Union Rags didn't realy need Trinniberg to have a good shot ...all he needed was a good break because he had enough natural speed to be wherever the jock wanted him. Leparoux was such a mistake for that colt. Edgar Prado or Johnny V would've produced the goods IMO.  

24 Feb 2013 9:11 PM
JayJay

derbygal : Where did you get that list ?  I thought Amerigo Vespucci was pointed to the Gotham Stakes.

24 Feb 2013 9:32 PM
Mary Zinke

Thanks, Jay Jay. I heard that he was training well w/the blinkers. He was graded stakes placed on the hill, plus he has a sprint stakes win and placings in graded and ungraded sprints.

24 Feb 2013 9:33 PM
Mary Zinke

Sorry, Jay Jay. I meant Ain't No Other's win today, in my last post. Nice weekend for that barn with the two stakes' wins.

24 Feb 2013 9:42 PM
JayJay

Ranagulzion :  I think if all the horses that makes the derby earned their way by winning their preps or hitting the board enough to make the points, it will be an exciting race.  If one horse can slow the pace to try and steal it and they do, then they've earned the win.  If the other horses can't get to him then they're not good enough.  It's very hard to slow the pace in the KD and still win the race.  I think it's easier to try and run away from the field.  LOL at Johnny V on UR...you really thought that last year ?  I thought I remember you saying Prado was the perfect jockey for him, I don't remember you ever mentioning JV at all until after the Belmont.  I have to say, that was a good one.

24 Feb 2013 9:42 PM
derbygal

Was just reading this,Now official that Demonic will miss the San Felipe. Bruised foot.

24 Feb 2013 10:10 PM
Coldfacts

CHIEF PICAWINNA,

LOONEY FACTS!

I do believe like many you mistake my opinions for cold facts. For the record they are separate. Cold facts are records that can be verified via any reputable third party source. You are at liberty to deem the cold facts on which my opinions are formulated as irrelevant but not at liberty to classify them as Looney. There is nothing looney about historic records!

25 Feb 2013 4:41 AM
Coldfacts

CHIEF PICAWINNA,

“ I will always have it in the back of my mind when you copy and paste any part of a statement that I post and use it out of context”

I do not recall an instance where I have been guilty of the above. I would therefore appreciate an example. Failure to provide same will necessitate a retraction.

25 Feb 2013 4:45 AM
Coldfacts

"As for Violence it is unlikely that he will want to see his feed bucket tonight. The race was a brutal one for the colt and I fear he will be knocked out for some time. This colt’s participation in the Derby is now very questionable"

Plod Boy Phil,

only your keen eyes would have  observer my above post race assessment.

From the head on view of Violence's gallop out, it was evident the colt was spent force and distressed.

After the 2010 FL Derby I told my dear colleague and Todd Pletcher faithful Ranagulzion that Rule  was damaged good and would not make the Derby. I saw similar signs with Violence.

Like all I hope he makes a successful recovery and more on to his next career.

25 Feb 2013 4:56 AM
Coldfacts

Ranagulzion,

“I'll admit to underestimating Orb's quality but it is disingenuous of you to deny that the 6lb weight advantage got Orb his narrow victory”

Disingenuous I am not! All indicators pointed to a potential facile victory for Violence in the FOY. Classy horse can allow weight successfully. Past winner of the FOY have done so. Violence resume reflects victories in G1l & G2 races. Orb resume reflects MSW and AllOC victories. For genuine G1 winners allowing 6lbs insignificant when competing against an Allowance Optional Claim winner.  

He’s Had Enough finished 2dn in the G1 BCJ and he got 6lbs as well and was badly beaten. Orb was making his Stakes debut.

The initial meeting between the two colts highlighted that Orb was the better of the two. Hype is no substitute for sight! Review the video!

25 Feb 2013 5:15 AM
derbygal

JayJay;

nyra,

Transparent might be another possible for the Gotham.

25 Feb 2013 7:17 AM
Pedigree Ann

The injury to Violence could have been predicted from his origin as a $600K yearling. Youngsters who are destined to bring in this kind of money don't get the outdoor 'playtime' that their less valuable and homebred fellows get; they are stalled much of the time and kept relatively isolated when out so they do not acquire scars from rough play. Their bones don't develop density from pasture living and are more prone to crack under stress. Just another way in which the selling business undermines the very thing sport it depends on to exist.

25 Feb 2013 8:59 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Pedigree Ann -

Such a prediction sometime between sale time and the FOY would have carried much more weigh than the above.

Is there any empirical data to support the theory?  Obviously, I'm well outside my scope of knowledge,  so consider this a genuine question.

25 Feb 2013 9:15 AM
JerseyBoy

Just in case I did not make the point about weights clear, I will take a different approach.

If two horses are in a race in which one carries 122 lbs and the other carries 116 lbs, the performance of the one carrying 122 pounds can be held constant, but the extra 6 pounds would impede the performance of the one carrying 116 if the extra 6 lbs were added.

This explains why apprentice jockeys are often successful as apprentices but fail to progress once they lose the allowance.

Is anyone suggesting that the apprentice allowance is a waste of time? If so why would a trainer ever use an apprentice?

I regard this discussion as a waste. That 122 lbs is a greater burden than 116 pounds is a truism. In my mind there is nothing to debate.

25 Feb 2013 9:35 AM
Closer

Verrazano--- he just worked 5F in 59.21 breezing at the Palm Meadows training track------oh man,I don't want to get too excited about a horse that's only had two races but so far this horse truly looks like a monster.

25 Feb 2013 9:37 AM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Coldfacts

“ I will always have it in the back of my mind when you copy and paste any part of a statement that I post and use it out of context”

I do not recall an instance where I have been guilty of the above. I would therefore appreciate an example. Failure to provide same will necessitate a retraction.

This blog will be an ongoing experiment in your proclivity to do what was written about here by me and yourself.

25 Feb 2013 9:45 AM
Coldfacts

Is Violence’s injury potentially related to the fact that his sire Medaglia d'Oro was an overbred stallion in 2009? Eskendereya another brilliant Todd Pletcher Derby contender was sidelined by injury and also retired. He was the product of Giants Causeway another overbred stallion. Have the foals from large books of mares bred made the Derby stating gates and what are their records?

Seventy five stallions bred between 150 - 200 mares between 2002 and 2009 and many achieved these marks in multiple years. Five attained the 200 mares mark. These stallions in combination bred 22,600 mares over this 7 year period. Of the few foals that were fortunate to make the Derby starting gates none have hit the board.

Now, I am aware that a large percentage of resulting foal crops from the 22,600 mares bred might not have made it to the race track and some were acquired by foreign buyers. I have been monitoring the 3YOs sired by stallions that have bred between 150 to 200 mares for some time to determine if there is a correlation between the dismal number of Derby starters and poor Derby showing. The following prominent colts are being monitored:

Footbridge – Street Cry (169 mares bred)

Avie's Quality – Elusive Quality (151 mares bred)

Shanghai Bobby - Harlans Holiday (165 mares bred)

Uncaptured – Lion Heart (180 mares bred)

Voilence - Medaglia d'Oro (194 mares bred) Retired!

Flashback - Tapit (170 mares bred)

Normandy Invasion – Tapit (170 mares bred)

Omega Star – Candy Ride (182 mares bred)

Capo Bastone – Street Boss (153 mares bred)

Governor Charlie – Midnight Lute (159 mares bred)

Majestic Tussar – Majestic Warrior (169 mares bred)

Amerigo Vespucci – Henrythenavigator (155 mares bred)

If this trend continues the above colts are unlikely to either make the Derby field or if they do, none are likely to be the winner. This might just be another meaningless Derby but some might find it interesting.

25 Feb 2013 9:54 AM
Coldfacts

Pedigree Ann,

A very interesting angle. He is also the product of a stallion that bred 194 mares in 2009.

25 Feb 2013 9:56 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Jersey Boy -

I'm not quite sure that your point,  which I believe is valid, is flattered by the above clarification.

Consider the basic physics of 'work'. If two objects are moving at the same velocity and each reaches the finish line at the same time, but one has carried more weight than the other, the object carrying more weight has done more 'work'. On that note,  if the same two objects carry equal weight and reach the finish line in a dead heat, yet one has travelled a further distance (wide) then that is the one that has done more 'work'.

This is the basic difference between a Beyer and a T'Graph speed figure.

25 Feb 2013 10:02 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Coldfacts-

The question remains.  Is sale price a reliable predictor of injury incurred on the race track ?

25 Feb 2013 10:06 AM
Coldfacts

JerseyBoy,

As usual your post contains many valid points. No one can disagree with the impact of weight in the outcome of races. However, if a horse is considered several lengths better than another, the weight handicap is deemed to be an equalizer.

Violence’s loss was not due to the 6lbs he allowed Orb. It might have been a small contributor but the views of many that it was the significant contributor are incorrect.  The colt got caught up in a 1:08 pace and it sapped most of his energy. He therefore did not have enough left to repel Orb’s challenge in spite of his gallant effort. The margin of victory should not be used as a measure as both colts were very tired in the last 100 meters. Orb had his energy sapping moment down the back stretch as he was under a vicious drive to get into contention. He was clearly the fitter of the two and his pedigree reflects more stamina.

If both colts were level in weights, the reason for Violence defeat would be attributed to either a lack of fitness or the fast fraction he contested over the first 6F of the race. Absolutely no credit would be given to Orb whom I consider to be the better of the two.

25 Feb 2013 10:18 AM
Coldfacts

Plod Boy Phil

"Is sale price a reliable predictor of injury incurred on the race track?"

The obvious answer is no. However, the sale price trend reflects Derby dome for high price yearling.  

25 Feb 2013 10:31 AM
JerseyBoy

Coldfacts:

You wrote “If both colts were level in weights, the reason for Violence defeat would be attributed to either a lack of fitness or the fast fraction he contested over the first 6F of the race”.

If the horses carried level weights the extra 6 pounds on Orb would have impeded Orb’s progress and Violence would have won.

Violence is 4 pounds better than Orb based on the margin of victory and the weights carried.

25 Feb 2013 10:59 AM
Coldfacts

JerseyBoy,

I cannot disagree with your last set of cold facts.

If you can apply some objectivity, revisit the race both colts  contested six months earlier.  They were both at level weights i.e., 119Lbs. Orb surrendered 5L when the gates opened. The fractions were 22.54 45.14,1:09. Orb went 5 wide for his run thus surredrrting another 5L

25 Feb 2013 11:17 AM
JerseyBoy

Plod Boy Phil

You wrote “This is the basic difference between a Beyer and a T'Graph speed figure”

I use the DRF Speed Fig+ the Track Variant.

I use neither the Beyer nor the THORO-GRAPH ratings and I do not wish to be drawn into a discussion of either of them.

There are many factors that one can consider when determining which horse enjoyed the best trip. On some days different paths on tracks are held to be better than others, for instance.

25 Feb 2013 11:24 AM
Coldfacts

JerseyBoy,

I cannot disagree with your latest set of cold facts. If you can apply some objectivity, kindly revisit the race contested by both colts six months earlier. They were both at level weights i.e., 119lbs. Orb surrendered 5L with an awkward start. The awkward start left Orb 14L last. The fractions were swift i.e., 22.54, 45.14, 1:09 plus. Orb had to be taken 5 wide for his stretch run and thus surrendered another 5L.  He got beat by 1L. The ground Orb surrendered is not dissimilar to a weight allowance. Violence was in receipt of a ground surrendered advantage and won.

Assuming both colt improve equally subsequent to that meeting, Violence chances of beating Orb with a good break would hinged on a distance unfavorable to Orb as he has more tactical speed. Another scenario could be that Violence improvement subsequent to their meeting was greater.

In defeat Orb proved himself to be the better of the two. He validated this cold fact with his workman like victory in the FOY. He gave Violence 10L at level weights and lost by 1L. Why should anyone think that he could not sit level and defeat him at a more favorable distance?

It is always a pleasure to debate you on these issues so long as it remains respectful.

25 Feb 2013 11:42 AM
papillon

pedigree ann, i have to disagree with your contention that violence's injury is the result of his sale price and coddling as a foal and yearling.

the studies of race horse bone strength and density shows it does not  increase significantly from pasture time, and pastured three year olds have differently shaped bones then three year olds who have done a lot of speed work as a two year olds--the two year olds who have done a lot of speed work have denser and stronger bones then the pastured horses. there are quite a few studies out there, i don't have time to link to them now, but will when i get back from work tonight.

the problem is that horses like violence have very real little speed  work as two year olds, as compared to horses like damascus, dr. fager, secretariat, and spectacular bid--all of whom basically raced every two weeks from july of their two year old season until their retirements.

the most severe force exerted on a horse's leg bones occurs on the turns (and increases as speed and weight carried increase), given how fast violence took that 2nd turn--and that instead of steadily having had increased distance and the speed work every other week as a two year olds, violence, like most horses today, breeze once a week at relatively pedestrian speeds for their capabilities--without steadily increasing distance or speed in the works and race less than every 6 weeks. many, start their 3 year old seasons with just 3 or 4 races.

violence is the first casuality of the foy, but as the fl derby nears, others will likely be revealed too.

ps; i also, as most long time posters at BH probably know, believe strongly that lasix makes their bones inherently weaker due to the fact it leaches calcium from their bodies, which also inadvertently inhibits their ability to absorb vitamin d as well--both crucial to proper bone development and health. but i don't like to bring it up any more due to the vitriol attached to the issue of lasix.

25 Feb 2013 11:44 AM
JerseyBoy

Coldfacts:

Given a choice, a reasonable person would judge horses by their recent races rather than their first lifetime race.

25 Feb 2013 11:59 AM
JerseyBoy

papillon:

I have long held the suspicion that racing on oval-shaped dirt tracks contribute to injuries. I have no evidence. If you can produce some evidence I will be grateful. In the meantime I will do some web searches to see if I find anything.

25 Feb 2013 12:13 PM
Coldfacts

JerseyBoy,

All things were no equal in FOY and consequently it cannot be considered a good measure to asses the two colts. All things were equal heading to the starting gates in their first meeting.

25 Feb 2013 12:57 PM
JerseyBoy

papillon:

I found a Jockey Club report. It shows the fatal injury statistics for dirt, grass and synthetic tracks.

It only took a few minutes.

The URL is below.

www.jockeyclub.com/.../supplementaltables_eid.pdf

25 Feb 2013 1:10 PM
Secreteriat

JerseyBoy

Plod Boy Phil

If a 1200 lb horse and a 1250 lb horse run carrying 126 at a distance who has the advantage? the faster horse or the lighter horse? How do you handicap that?

25 Feb 2013 1:13 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Secretariat -

Good question. If you have a clue to the 'answer',  please enlighten us.  

Since I have not considered final time based figures for nearly a decade, weight is not a factor in the haqndicapping process for me (along with many other standard factors many consider important) As a co-proprietor,  I am a racing flow purist.

25 Feb 2013 1:52 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Coldfacts I have responded to your allegations this morning,bloggers to you think it is a coincedence that it was not posted?

25 Feb 2013 2:25 PM
KY VET

What a bunch of wackos! Coldcuts knows absolutely nothing about almost anything....Overbred sires? You think it weakens the sperm? The chrom. are somehow weaker? This guiy is out of his mind! Heres a tip, horses that breed alot of mares are in demand! Not hard to figure out....Coldcuts is confused....over racing mares or over breeding can cause the mare to not get in foal....thats what they mean when you hear over bred..........................And the other wackos are saying horses that didnt race early have weak bones............who are the great 2 yr olds that went on to win the derby?..........thought so..............leave the training to the experts people!

25 Feb 2013 4:06 PM
KY VET

Plod.......what are your thoughts on the 95 beyer for the risen star? I think its too high for that crap race....the top horses ran bad, the longshot won, 8 horses close at wire.......dont think so......

25 Feb 2013 4:09 PM
JerseyBoy

Secretariat:

Size is not an issue. Previous performance is all that matters.

25 Feb 2013 4:11 PM
KY VET

You all have turned me around on the weight issue.........i am therefore going to bet tiny horses, in a rainstorm because the amount of water on their body, is less than a huge horse............thanx

25 Feb 2013 4:11 PM
KY VET

According to the experts on here, imagine how strong the horses bones would be if they run every week......and how good of shape they would be.............pretty simple stuff...

25 Feb 2013 4:16 PM
Plod Boy Phil

VET-

I do not consider final time based speed figures, thus I have no real opinion on the subject. Since I did spend many years studying them,  I have a reasonable understanding of how they are derived. One might be better served to review all the Beyer figures assigned to the dirt routes that day before placing judgment on that single event. After all, figures of this nature on a particular day are intertwined,  with the makers often using 'known' levels of performance from older horses on the card to guide them in the process.

25 Feb 2013 6:38 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Additionally, I do not think that having Code West essentially pair his last is an unreasonable notion.

25 Feb 2013 6:55 PM
Forbidden Apple

Itsmyluckyday is looking even more promising after watching this past weekends prep races. His time of 1:41.81 is rock solid and he must not be taken lightly.

Coldfacts,

I only wish that I listened to you about Orb and his chances against Violence. I was torn between the two colts, I liked them both. The odds should have been what swayed me in Orb's direction. I ended up taking a short price on Data Link and bet him to win. Then I dumped all of my winnings on the lowest double payoff I've bet on, $8 Data Link/Violence. Completely my mistake, the Data Link/Orb double came back $35! It's sad to see that Violence is off the KY Derby trail. Now it appears that their might have been some truth to the rumors surrounding Violence in January. People were saying that he was hurt and might not have a 3 year old campaign.

The recent issue of Bloodhorse has Bernardini listed at #30 on the sire standings. With his top earner being Burned Bridges, an expensive slow colt that is now running almost weekly at the Big A.

Ranagulzion,

This nightmare is on you, Dreaming of Julia, Violence, and Palice Malice all came up losers. Any Triple Crown predictions this year?

25 Feb 2013 10:10 PM
predict

coldfacts,

It is definetly interesting, the idea that the number of mares bred might have an effect in the racing ability of the foals. Not sure why the number 150 would be considered overbred as opposed to say 145 or 140. Any of these numbers would seem like quite a task and very unnatural. But, to put those that scoff at the idea that the number or breedings has an effect on the genetics passed along, they need to open their minds to the fact that environment can affect genetics. Recent studies in "epigenetics" (a relatively new area of genetics study), have confirmed it as fact that environment affects the passing of genetic information, a fact not previously believed to be possible. This area of study is so new that it is way too soon to say that what kind of an environment an individual is living in will not have some degree of causational genetic change in the offspring of that individual.

25 Feb 2013 11:28 PM
Coldfacts

Mr. SOS,

Have you ever heard of Derby trends? I doubt it as your response again symbolizes your overwhelming ignorance.

I do not know if horses from overbred stallions are either more or less injury prone. I have made this clear on numerous occasions. What I do know is that stallions that breed extremely large books of mares have very few Derby runners and my records reflect none have won the great race.   This has been a long standing trend associated with these stallions. Detailed below is list of last seven Derby winning a stallions and the number of mares in the year of conception:-

2002 - Dynaformer: 104 mares

(Barbaro 2006)

2003 – Street Cry: 129 mares ( Streeet Sense 2007)

2004 – Boundary: 37 mares (Big Brown 2008)

2005 – Birdstone: 69 Mares (Mine That Bird 2009)

2006 – Miaria’s Mon: 131 Mares (Super Saver 2010)

2007 – Leriodesanimaux:  47 mares (Animal Kingdom 2011)

2008  - Flower Alley: 66 mares ( I’ll Have Another 2012)

The bigger the books, the greater the number of mares bred assuming the stallions do not have fertility issues.

I have been monitoring the success of stallion that breed 150 and more mares in a season for some time. No horse produced from these large books has won the Derby. It’s a Derby trend I find interesting since most of the top stallions at market are being bred to over 150 mares per season.

I am very focused on Tapit this year as he the most horses of the 369 nominated for the TC

26 Feb 2013 9:22 AM
Secreteriat

Jersey Boy Plod Boy Phil

Based on talking to many top trainers in the last 30 yrs including the existing top 5 have all agreed that weight matters when distances exceed 1 1/8 handicapping. In those races a 3 lb could be the difference. You have to consider class, past performance at distance,jock and weight in that order. We will see an example this week Game on Dude 125  Ron the Greek 123. Dude at home. Ron won lat year. Box both for big bucks!

26 Feb 2013 9:53 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Secretariat -

Did these same unnamed trainers tell you that weight differences between two horses does not matter at distances under 9f?

Following your handicapping hierarchy will much more often than not lead to a wager on one of the two favorites - to each his own. On that note, surely, there are better ways to collect a 2-1 return than boxing two obvious favorites in an exacta.

Good luck.

26 Feb 2013 10:36 AM
Coldfacts

Secreteriat,

I find the weight issue regarding Orb and Violence it interesting.

Violence defeated Orb in their first meeting at level weights. Orb’s awkward start and 5 wide trip gave Violence an estimated 10L advantage in that race. Violence won with Orb a fast closing third with 1L separating them.

I have specified that Orb was the better of the two on that day at level weight although he lost. It is difficult to overcome a 10L advantage surrendered to equally talented opponents. If Orb surrendered a 10L advantage to Violence at level weights and lost by 1L, isn’t conceivable that he could have defeated Violence at level weight in the FOY?

If trainers were given a disadvantage option would it be a allowing 10L or 6lbs?

The answer to the above question will indicate which of the two colts had the greater disadvantage to overcome and thus bring closure to the weight disadvantage issue.

26 Feb 2013 11:07 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Flow update:

FOY - Neutral for all.

Risen Star - Saturday's main played kindly to closers, but was not enough to significantly impact race results. Give all Derby prep participants neutral grades.

26 Feb 2013 11:24 AM
Ranagulzion

KY Vet,

I think that you're wrong to call the Risen Star a crap race simply because of a blanket finish.  The race was faster than Mark Valesky's race.  The top five colts there may be better than you estimate ...you should reserve judgment.  Bob Baffert's Code West is a sneaky good horse ...watch his next race.

Forbidden Apple,

no nightmare ...you escaped this time.  Watch Overanalyzed and Ore Pass in the Gotham this weekend.

26 Feb 2013 12:34 PM
Secreteriat

Plod Boy Phil

trainers pretty much said that a 5 lb allowance in races less than 8f did not make much of a difference. Favorites in graded or stakes races are favored because they are usualy the best horse. Instead of picking against them I usually increase my odds using exoctics back to back doubles or tri's and super. For example in the Animal Kingdom Point of Entry race I did a $30 cold super with with Animal Kingdom Point of Entry in the top two and backed it up With a $40 cold TRI With Point of entry on top A/K. because I could't seperate them. I collected on my Tri bet and did better than 8 1/2 to 1

26 Feb 2013 1:11 PM
Secreteriat

Jersey Boy,

This is off topic but everey time I see your name I am reminded of our filly Jersey Girl many years ago. Do you use that name becuase you're from N Jersey?

26 Feb 2013 1:34 PM
Forbidden Apple

Ranagulzion,

It's no surprise that you think everything is peachy in the Pletcher stable. It is now four years in a row that your king has managed to bang up a top horse. Is it bad luck or something else? I remember back in Januray when some folks were calling Violence damaged goods. I feel terrible for the horse, I thought he was a serious contender. I don't get Overanalyze or Normandy Invasion, both horses are slow and get bet because of their trainers. I'll be taking a look at Transparent even though he is unproven.

26 Feb 2013 3:04 PM
JerseyBoy

Secreteriat:

It is just a name.

It has no special meaning.

I am from Northern NJ.

26 Feb 2013 3:41 PM
THE KEYMASTER

I'm certainly not a Pletcher fan, but I think he has the best horse in Verrazano...  I don't think even Pletcher and Coolmore can screw this one up.

26 Feb 2013 3:57 PM
JerseyBoy

Secreteriat:

For the final time, weight on a horse is a burden. A higher weight is always a greater burden even if the difference is 1 lb.

Ask those trainers if they would accept 5 lbs overweight on their horse.

Also ask them if they would use an apprentice who could not claim the apprentice allowance in a race.

It matters not what the trainers say. Weight is always a burden.

Why don’t you ask the racing secretaries why some horses are assigned higher weights than others in handicap races.

26 Feb 2013 3:58 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

KYVET I agree with you the FOY looked five points better than The Risen Star.I need to see confirmation from any Fairgrounds form.Lets see if ISAN runs in another prep at another track, or he decides to stick to the Louisiana Derby, which I think is his best bet.I wont bet him to win off this race directly to the Derby,I might toss him altogether if they choose that path.

26 Feb 2013 6:10 PM
KY VET

Why do you think........it took weeks for a workout for ITSMYLUCKYDAY?

26 Feb 2013 8:15 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Ky Vet

  You often like to see them workout sooner than that to see that the prior race didn't take that much out of them, however, in this case Itsmyluckyday was in peak condition for the Holy Bull, running 8.5 in under 1:42. You cannot maintain peak condition through the Derby. He hadn't had any significant breaks since he started last June. It was time to let up a little to try to peak for The Derby but his workout time at Calder, 3rd of 56 shows that he has maintained his fitness through gallops and maybe an unofficial workout under restraint. Good job of training and I expect to see him close enough to top form in the Florida Derby for a top two finish, with the expectation that he has more than enough left for a strong Derby run. They will want plenty in the tank for the 10f. He's got the stride and talent but we know that Lawyer Ron was a 9fer and if I recall correctly had no success at 10f. I do think Itsmyluckyday's stride might be better suited for 10f than Lawyer Ron's though. The only question for me is the pedigree. He can run.

26 Feb 2013 8:50 PM
KY VET

Itsmyluckyday has NO CHANCE to win the derby..........he PEAKED too soon..........there is no going back, you cant do anything about it....a month off of workouts doesnt bring them back....watch what happens.............

26 Feb 2013 9:14 PM
KY VET

HEY DUTROW!   only 9 years 10 months left!....................................tick, tick, tick.........

26 Feb 2013 9:16 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

KY VET

   Of course only the barn knows how he came out of the Holy Bull. It would be interesting to know but the workout at Calder, a deeper track tells me that they probably didn't have an exhausted horse, at least not for more than a few days and they purposely backed off. I'm not ready to say he can't win The Derby yet. Things have changed, especially with the new points system. It's not the old days where anyone could get into the Derby and they could do whatever they wanted to do to try to peak on Derby day. Now you have to win races as a 3yo, or a top finish in the 100 pointers. It will be interesting to see how many points it takes but some of them are putting all of their eggs in one basket and will have to perform big or they won't be in The Derby. The way he ran the Holy Bull is not the ideal way to move towards a Derby peak but he does have the best performance so far in my opinion. He's talented. We will see. I don't make any predictions at least until after the big 9f preps. You could say that about 100 horses and you'd only be wrong once. (that they can't win the Derby)

26 Feb 2013 9:29 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

I don't know yet if there are any this year but ultra talented horses don't necessarily have to peak. They are just great and can win anytime anywhere. I don't see one this year yet, and don't most years. Plesa is a good trainer. He'll have him ready. He treats each horse as an individual. You might be surprised what this horse ends up doing.

26 Feb 2013 9:36 PM
JayJay

Just curious, when is ILMD eligible to peak again ?

26 Feb 2013 9:53 PM
Ranagulzion

KY Vet,

If by "no chance" you mean that Itsmyluckyday wont even hit the board in the Derby, you still have a couple months to retract that ridiculous statement.  You might want to do so immediately after the Florida Derby without being required to eat crow ...this colt is no allowance or claiming horse, might I remind you ... so tread carefully.

26 Feb 2013 9:54 PM
JayJay

oops... It's IMLD lol

26 Feb 2013 9:55 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

JayJay

   He's ready to peak a peck of pickled peppers right now !!!! And anytime, anywhere so be there or be square.

26 Feb 2013 10:22 PM
KY VET

Ranag.....you more than anyone,should have learned by now........you always declare after a horse wins after a great race,"this horse will win the derby!"....and they dont.......Look, you were not wrong on any of those horses, (except the union rags, never ran over 100 beyer).....they All were very good........Like all beginners, you havent learned that talent isnt everything....it is how the horse is coming up to the derby.....the boat has sailed........period........he might not even make the derby...........and the fl derby is not the kentucky derby....its one more nail in the coffin for this horse.............you dont worry about the time off? no works for a month? The ship has sailed........as has orb's chances for derby win........

26 Feb 2013 10:31 PM
Forbidden Apple

Did some time off take away any fitness from Wise Dan, Fort Larned, or Royal Delta? Plenty of horse are sound, it's not like he was taken out of training, get serious. How do any of us really know how good Itsmyluckyday is? It is very possible that he keeps on improving. I for one do not think that a 1 mile race and a 1 1/16 mile race will knock this colt out. He won the Holy Bull with something left, far from all out and he beat an eclipse champion. He also has run 9 times with 5 wins, I think he deserved a short break. To say he has no chance is nonsense, but look at the source of that comment. I will take Plesa's word over an internet blogger who loves Charles Town and Delta Downs races. Plesa knows that he has a good horse and he will not ruin him just to make one race. Who is your #1 pick KY Vet? You were in love with Shanghai Bobby and Violence, both have come up short and lost.

26 Feb 2013 11:45 PM
JayJay

LOL Dr. D, yeah, he's up there on my list.  I don't think he's fully peaked, maybe half peak but who the peak knows, it's not even March yet, there's going to be a lot of peaking going on next month and the peaking list will surely change.  I myself peak around April.

27 Feb 2013 12:07 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Forbidden -

Comparing fully mature horses of the quality of the three you mentioned with a rapidly developing 3 yr old is dubious at best.

We've all seen the impact that 'too much too soon' has had on dozens of early peaking 3s as well as those that have been injured after or during the TC run.  We need go no further back than last year for a great example.

This is in no way supporting or discounting the opinion of the VET regarding Itsmy, but there certainly is prescidence to support the theory.

27 Feb 2013 12:10 AM
Plod Boy Phil

'precedence' rather

27 Feb 2013 12:23 AM
Forbidden Apple

It's not like Itsmyluckyday set any world records at Gulfstream. When a Pletcher horse like Eskendereya or Verrazano run fast they are considered world beaters and the next champion in the making. I'll stick with the Rodney Dangerfield horse for now and see if he can romp again in the FL Derby. These debates are somewhat meaningful, I always have an Open Mind. Like last weekend, I stayed away from North Slope when he took no money at the windows.

Plod Boy Phil,

Do you think Purim's Dancer ran a huge race last out?

Can Stephanoatsee beat Ron the Greek? I bet him last out knowing that he is a grinder. It seems like a 1 1/4 mile race will be right up his alley.

27 Feb 2013 12:38 AM
KY VET

Time off is great......its not about being in shape.......you missed the point........plod gets it.............the fact he fired 2 great races in jan......is just too early. There is nothing they can do......You wanna win the derby? Dont run great in jan.........dont worry, you'll all get it later..............

27 Feb 2013 12:55 AM
KY VET

i posted, i dont like anyone......but im about to bet pool 2.......have it down to 13.......no itsmyluckyday, no oxbow, no orb.........

27 Feb 2013 1:00 AM
KY VET

Is it me? How can someone think a sire has a late development syndrome,or whatever he calls it......say a horse has no chance in the derby, say not until the belmont, does the horse have a chance....................5 weeks? thats a long time?   Its really bizarre, the wacky people we have on here!!!!!!!

27 Feb 2013 1:12 AM
Mary Zinke

Yah, how bizarre ;)

I take it all in. Some of it helps.

Weekly two:  Escapefromreality, Hear The Ghost. I'll add more picks in a few days.

Jay Jay--You're doing well at Winstar.

27 Feb 2013 1:36 AM
Forbidden Apple

I get it, I just don't buy that argument. So Verrazano must be finished too according to your logic. That's funny, you are the wackiest person on these blogs.

27 Feb 2013 1:47 AM
Mary Zinke

Oh, I hope he's not finished, Forbidden Apple. I put $10 on Verrazano since the other horses I liked were in all others. I'd like to have the fun of my ticket being "live" for the Derby, even if I find another Derby horse.

27 Feb 2013 2:12 AM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Horseplayers concerning precedence,I dont think any one in modern history(LAST DECADE) has won the Derby off much more than a six week respite from their last race.If I am mistaken, post it so I can do further research using your information.I think the trainers are constantly in a trial and error mode.They have to be, because their barns have more than 10 horses,and they are constantly adding and subtracting.The mega barns like Bafferts and Pletchers have so many head.They have to find out what works for each individual.They also have to find out and exploit what has worked for them as trainers.I am pretty sure neither Plesa or Pletcher would tell you that having their trainees, Itsmyluckyday and Shanghai Bobby unraced for so long between races is the best scenario for them leading to the Florida Derby.Then again this year could find the trainers trying to understand and acknowledge new patterns that worked this year because of the new qualifying rules.I think they operate in the if it works dont fix-it realm, so for some old-timers it is hard to change what has worked for so long.

27 Feb 2013 4:02 AM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

BTW an addittion to my last post.

I read an article years ago that profiled T Pletcher and that he  studied patterns of the optimum number of days between starts and their trainees performance.Pletcher found that 28 days was the most optimum number of days between starts,I think Bobby Frankel concurred when they asked him for the article.Since I read this years ago I wonder if Pletcher still considers 28 days as an optimum number of days between races.

27 Feb 2013 4:07 AM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Workouts can only maintain aquired fitness for so long,it is the tough races that dont knock them out physically that make them stronger,can you find paralles in yourself and your fitness.I think as we get older if you dont excersise regularly it will be more difficult to attain the fitness level you had before you stopped exercising the longer you take to begin ativity again.

27 Feb 2013 4:26 AM
Coldfacts

CHIEF PICAWINNA,

Did the article contain the reasons for his 28 days assessment? The answer to your question is yes. Mr. Pletcher still thinks 28 days as an optimum number of days between races.

The great Native Dancer won 21 of 22 starts. His first two starts were four day apart. His next four occurred in one month. After his only loss in the Derby he won the Withers 14 days later and then the Preakness 7 day later.

A well-conditioned and fully fit thoroughbred does not need 28 day between races to reproduce a competitive effort. The 28 days may be required for them to recover from the cocktail programs on which they are placed leading up to races and the race day medication Lasix and its dehydration effects.

It is unlikely that Mr. Pletcher will ever train a Triple Crown winner as the Preakness is contested 14 days after the Derby and way outside his comfort 28 days comfort zone. How many of his Derby starters that have contested the Preakness have hit the board?

He is a multiple Eclipse Award winning trainer with a trailer load of records but all that glitter isn’t gold.

27 Feb 2013 8:59 AM
Dr Drunkinbum

JayJay

  I see that you've taken a peek at reality. Actually IMLD may have just been getting warmed up, taking a peek at domination.

27 Feb 2013 9:14 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Forbidden-

re: Purim's Dancer

From our perspective, she gets a neutral grade for the win.  While she did run through a slightly speed favoring Flow, the figure was well short of being significant enough to warrant upgrading.

27 Feb 2013 9:29 AM
Mary Zinke

San Felipe is not until the 9th. So that post was extra early.

27 Feb 2013 11:02 AM
Rusty Weisner

Dr. Drunkinbum,

You are right on the money with regards to IMLD.  The Holy Bull looked like a "goal" for this trainer, coming at the end of a four-race autumn/winter campaign.  Bettors preferred the "Derby" horse to the "local" one.  That's out the window now.

27 Feb 2013 11:32 AM
1:08 and change

VET:

So Orb's 97 Beyer in February is peaking too soon?  Don't think so.  I'd say he's right in line with what past derby winners have done.

27 Feb 2013 11:57 AM
Coldfacts

Mary Zinke,

It is interesting that you mentioned Hear The Ghost. He is my secret horse out in CA. He is not a sprinter, does not have great acceleration but has a strong sustained pace that is deceptively quick.

Should he make the gates in the  San Felipe he carry the added  handicap of some of my cash.

27 Feb 2013 12:11 PM
Forbidden Apple

Plesa recently said, "He's 110 percent." I can't wait for the FL Derby." I took notice of Itsmyluckyday after his run in the Dania Beach on turf. I agree with Plesa, this horse loves dirt.

27 Feb 2013 1:13 PM
Forbidden Apple

Cold Facts,

I had Hear the Ghost on my first two D. Dozen lists and people laughed at me. I took him off because he has not raced.

27 Feb 2013 1:18 PM
Ranagulzion

KY Vet,

How long have you been in this game? If you wern't a newbie you'd notice that some sires produce offspring that invariably mature later than others ...I wont try any more to educate you on this ...stay in your blissful ignorance my friend.  One more thing with you buddy ...its always easier to say which horse will lose but I've noticed that you 'chicken out' in quite a few of the Graded Stakes races when it comes to picking winners or else your pick doesn't fire (apart from the chalk ones) ...not very good for a 'Pro".

27 Feb 2013 1:25 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

There you go again Coldfacts using facts from other eras to embellish your ramblings.You pick ANY trainer that has a derby hopeful this year, and he wont run him on this type of schedule you posted:

The great Native Dancer won 21 of 22 starts. His first two starts were four day apart. His next four occurred in one month. After his only loss in the Derby he won the Withers 14 days later and then the Preakness 7 day later.

I know you have an idea why dont you or do you want my opinions,or those of your peers on this blog.

27 Feb 2013 1:41 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Forbidden-

While I never 'laughed' at you for including HtG on any list,  I did make it clear that both of his races have been downgraded by us.  That opinion remains unchanged.

27 Feb 2013 1:42 PM
derbygal

Race 10 - 5:02 PM      STAKES Gotham S. (Grade III)

Purse $400,000. For Three Year Olds. One And One Sixteenth Miles. (Inner track)  

PP Horse Virtual

Stable A/S Med Jockey Wgt Trainer

1 Champion Boy (KY)   3/C L E Castro 116 J C Guerrero

2 Escapefromreality (NY)   3/G L D Cohen 116 D A Schettino

3 Ore Pass (CA)   3/C L J Pimentel 116 M J Trombetta

4 Amerigo Vespucci (KY)   3/C L E D Rodriguez 116 T J Tullock, Jr.

5 Transparent (FL)   3/C  I Ortiz, Jr. 116 K P McLaughlin

6 Now and Then (KY)   3/C  J Alvarado 116 K P McLaughlin

7 Siete de Oros (PA)   3/G L A S Arroyo 116 R Preciado

8 Vyjack (KY)   3/G L J Rosario 123 R R Rodriguez

9 Elnaawi (KY)   3/C L1 C Hill 116 K P McLaughlin

10 Sky Captain (KY)   3/C L M Mena 116 M E Casse

11 West Hills Giant (NY)   3/C L J L Espinoza 116 J P Terranova, II

12 Overanalyze (KY)   3/C L J R Velazquez 123 T A Pletcher

A - Coupled Entries - Transparent, Now and Then  

27 Feb 2013 3:27 PM
derbygal

JayJay;

Amerigo Vespucci did get entered.

27 Feb 2013 3:29 PM
Ranagulzion

The Gotham field looks very good ...should answer a few questions. My picks: Overanalyze, Ore Pass, Transparent, Vyjack.

KY Vet,

waiting to hear from you on this one buddy ...dont be shy now (LOL)

27 Feb 2013 5:37 PM
KY VET

Ranag.......your late development thing is a joke because you say the horse wont have a chance in the derby, but will in the belmont 5 weeks later......thats just plain stupid.....5 weeks is nothing.......Now, what you should say, is later in the year.....like breeders cup time........then its not that stupid............Anyone that doesnt think a derby horse doesnt need 28 days at least......just doesnt know what they are talking about.............

27 Feb 2013 6:10 PM
KY VET

Someone said, because itsmyluckyday peaked....that i should say verrazzano peaked......why is that? ver. ran 2 great races.....how do we know he has peaked?....we know its peaked because where he started from.........watch and learn.....

27 Feb 2013 6:12 PM
KY VET

Here are the only horses on my list, that can win the derby.....Code west,delhomme,flashback,fortytales,goldencents,normandy inv,overanylze,palice malice,revolutionary,shakinitup,shanghi bobby,superninety9,uncaptured,verrazzano...............this doesnt mean i like all of them.....just means they meet my criteria.......

27 Feb 2013 6:16 PM
KY VET

Ranag...se nothing good in the gotham.....only overanylze looks alright.....fl. race....down to 2 horses......merit man or forty tales..........there.....ya happy?

27 Feb 2013 6:25 PM
JayJay

derbygal : Yeah, thanks for the info.  I see he still has the same jockey lol.  

27 Feb 2013 7:20 PM
JerseyBoy

In the Gotham, Overanalyze is giving some of the starters 7 lbs.

I do not think he can beat them at the weights.

27 Feb 2013 8:22 PM
Forbidden Apple

Does anyone else like Stephanoatsee in the Big Cap? My concern with him is his complete lack of speed and his jockey, Leparoux. His grinding style might fit well in a 1 1/4 mile race. It's hard to look past Ron the greek, he looked fantastic in the Sunshine Millions.

It looks like Transparent has finally turned a corner, he is my upset pick in the Gotham. This race is wide open, full of average horses.

KY Vet,

Verrazano and Itsmyluckyday each ran two fast races in a row. Why will one be knocked out and the other has potential to be a killer? Your logic makes little sense, you are dismissing the quality and ability of Itsmyluckyday. Maybe you are starting to come down with the Ranagulzion fever. You think all Pletcher horses are so well managed.

27 Feb 2013 9:40 PM
Forbidden Apple

Beholder gets back to the winners circle in the Las Virgenes.

Suggestive Boy was razor sharp last out and will be tough to run down in the Kilroe Mile. Silentio had a bizarre trip last out and came on again, he will be in a battle for second with Mr. Commons. Fed Biz is interesting too, first time turf.

27 Feb 2013 9:50 PM
KY VET

apple...i told you the difference.....wait until im wrong......then i will be wrong.....i have you down for itsmyluckyday......

27 Feb 2013 10:10 PM
KY VET

i will tell you my pool 2 bet on sunday.......ill be betting 2 horses.....

27 Feb 2013 10:12 PM
Forbidden Apple

Who do you like in the Big Cap?

Kilroe Mile?

27 Feb 2013 10:39 PM
Forbidden Apple

In Pool 2 I am betting Itsmyluckyday and maybe Code West at 20-1. I like the breeding on Code West for a 1 1/4 mile race, he ran a sneaky good race on saturday.

The truth is neither one of us know how good Itsmyluckyday is. But I believe he is far from peaking, give him a chance. He is going to win the FL Derby.

27 Feb 2013 11:06 PM
Coldfacts

CHIEF PICAWINNA,

You have clearly missed the point I was trying to make and like many, instead of requesting a clarification you could not resist attacking me.

“You pick ANY trainer that has a derby hopeful this year, and he won’t run him on that type of schedule”  

My English must be worse than I imagined. I was not recommending Native Dancer’s schedule to any trainer. Let’s forget Native Dancer’s race schedule. In 1992 Conquistador Cielo won the Gl Metropolitan Handicap in a NTR and six days later, he won the 12F Belmont Stakes. There is a reason why trainer like Todd Pletcher should not be mentioned in the same sentence with Woody Stephens. In 2005 Don’t Get Mad won the Derby Trial contested over 8F and 8 days later he finished 4th in the Kentucky Derby.

Those are example that a well-conditioned and fully fit thoroughbred does not need 28 days before it can reproduce a competitive effort.

The Preakness is contested two weeks after the Derby. If Mr. Pletcher’s comfort zone is 28 days, it simply means his program is not suited to the Preakness and consequently he is unlikely to be associated with a Triple Crown winner.

Horses now take a lot longer to recover from races because of the concoctions used on them. We are in the drug era.

“I know you have an idea why don’t you or do you want my opinions, or those of your peers on this blog.”

Kindly forgive me but I do not understand the above? No clarification necessary as I will just avoid posting views on issue raised by you.

One Love!

28 Feb 2013 12:31 AM
Coldfacts

Mr. SOS

“Anyone that doesn’t think a derby horse doesn’t need 28 days at least......just doesn’t know what they are talking about”

Are you aware that there is a significant difference between wants and needs? How much time does a Preakness horse need or want? If a horse needs 28 days between Derby preps then such a horse will never win the Preakness. If the span of 28 days is the ideal period between races, why aren’t trainers lobbying for the timing of Preakness to be moved to 28 days after the Derby?  

A horse that is taken beyond its preferred distance or required to perform outside its capabilities will invariably need more time to recovery because of the resulting extra strain on its body. If all things are equal a well-conditioned and fully fit thoroughbred that is not loaded with pre-race cocktails and race day medication does not need 28 day to recover. It does not matter if is a Derby horse or not. Is there such a thing as Derby horse?  Was Trinniberg a Derby Horse?  If you actually meant a horse with the capability to run 10F in 2:00 plus, there are many horses that face the Derby starter that cannot achieve these time. Are they Derby horses?  

Does a horse that runs without Lasix recover faster than one that runs with the drug?

Because of your shallowness you are incapable of understanding the context in which certain views and information is presented and sadly you are not alone in this category.

28 Feb 2013 9:16 AM
THE KEYMASTER

Although lacking in experience, Verrazano has the most upside, just like Bodemeister did last year.  I just hope Verrazano isn't as poorly managed as Bodemeister was.

28 Feb 2013 9:37 AM
Coldfacts

The allowance of weight due to the conditions of certain races has certainly become an issue in 2013.

Did these conditions exist prior to 2013? Did the weight disadvantage prevent the likes of Hansen and I Want Revenge from winning the Gotham? Top rated horse have been allowing weight and winning these races over the years. Why is it suddenly an issue?

If a horse has an ability advantage it can easily allow weight and win. If the conditions of a race require a horse to allow weight by virtue of its record, then then connections of said horse can bypass the race if they think the horse does not have the ability to win under said conditions.

In some races there would either be regular walk overs or extremely small if not for different weight allotments. Some horses are just significantly better than others and would likely win every race if not for the weight allowance policy.

It does not adversely impact the outcome of races as is being currently debated.

28 Feb 2013 9:44 AM
JerseyBoy

Here is an example of why anecdotes tend to be meaningless.

One blogger wrote about Woody Stephens and his results with Conquistador Cielo, citing those results as somehow indicating the fitness Woody Stephens developed in his horses.

Well two years after Conquistador Cielo’s victories, the same Woody Stephens ran Swale in the Kentucky Derby, the Preakness and the Belmont Stakes.

One week after the 1984 Belmont, Swale dropped dead.

What does this prove?

It proves that Conquistador Cielo did not race in the 1990’s

Nothing more.

28 Feb 2013 10:40 AM
Rusty Weisner

Overanalyze hasn't beaten anyone and starts from the 12.  Vyjack, Transparent, Ore Pass in boxed exactas.

28 Feb 2013 11:31 AM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Keymaster I think the Trinniberg Factor limited Bodemeister's quest for 1st in the Derby,as far as management of the colt I dont understand your concept.

28 Feb 2013 1:45 PM
1:08 and change

Verrazano.  Love the speed.  Love the potential.  But just name me one great even good two turn dirt horse out of More than Ready.  Maybe if they ran the Derby in Austrailia.  I'll pass.

28 Feb 2013 1:45 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Coldfacts these are racehorses so I think the 28 day guideline can be understood easier if it is used in a context of 3races for the modern 3yo.28+28=56 Derby+Preakness=14 in 21 days more expected to win 1 1/2 mile race on dirt.If Secreatariat was the best 3yo ever he will have to be incarnated for a colt to win the TC with the present rules.

28 Feb 2013 1:50 PM
Coldfacts

CHIEF PICAWINNA

"If Secretariat was the best 3yo ever he will have to be incarnated for a colt to win the TC with the present rules."

There have been two TC winners since Secretariat. Seattle Slew and Affirmed. Since Affirmed achieved the feat 12 other horses won the first two leg of the TC.   Of the 12 only I’ll Have Another did not get a chance to win the TC as he did start in the Belmont.

In 1998 it took the photo finish camera to separate Real Quiet and Victory Gallop for 1st place. Three others seeking TC glory finished second as well.

The present rules did not prevent Real Quiet from winning the TC as both he and Victory Gallop contested the Derby and Preakness. He was therefore not defeated by a fresher horse. Likewise, Sunday Silence’s quest for TC glory was stopped by Easy Goes whom he defeated in the Derby and Preakness.

28 Feb 2013 4:34 PM
KY VET

Coldcuts....who said 28 days to recover? You dont get it......Horses can come right back and race a few days later, with no problem.........It is for the over all well being of the horse......ive seen many horses come back the next day, and run well...........

28 Feb 2013 5:33 PM
KY VET

Coldcuts....who is it you like? Any early wagers? You list so many horses.....why not say who is your horse? I know you dont really bet, just give me your top 3......

28 Feb 2013 5:35 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Coldfacts your supporting evidence is still from how many years ago?I would prefer it, and I think the bloggers on this board would prefer if you dont open up the ENTIRE history book of racing from when Pegasus was a wee lad and stick to at least the 21st century.

28 Feb 2013 7:51 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

KY VET it was Todd Pletcher and Bobby Frankel who concurred on the 28 day guideline.The horse dosent wake up completely from the slugishness of his last race until about 28 days later give or take.

Vetky it aint written in stone so

28 Feb 2013 7:54 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Vetky it was Todd Pletcher and Bobby Frankel that concureed on the 28 day guideline.I dont think they wake up for 28 days.

VETKY it aint written in stone so dont sweat it.

28 Feb 2013 7:56 PM
KY VET

NEWS UPDATE.................................JACITO......still hurting........

28 Feb 2013 7:57 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

KY VET JACITO is keeping DENNIS OF CORK COMPANY BACK AT THE FARM and guess what they dont have to wake up so there are no alarm clocks at the farm.

28 Feb 2013 8:21 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Coldfacts the triple crown is a myth that wont be attained with the current state of racing and the rules the most immediate remedy for the crowns malady would be to reincarnate Secretariat oh my bad we live in 2013 make that Clone Secretariat.

28 Feb 2013 8:26 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Coldfacts I remember Dont Get Mads 4th in 2005 but that dosent prove anything did he run in the Preakness and Belmont.Stick to the 21st century as that is more related to the state of the art to give you a term that you might understand.If you believe the cause is the drugs I dont disagree with you but I wouldnt believe you if you stated that was the only difference between racing in the 70s,80s 90s and the 21st century.Breeding has a lot to do with it,the owners that are in the game to make money at some level and not just for the sport as some families were years ago.The money in the sport has a lot to do with it so on and so on I am not a writer I dont know if you are but I could go on and on but this is just a blog and you have an opinion and I have one if you think you are right and I am wrong lets have a horse picking contest to see who wins.Thats what I enjoy about this sport finding a way to win and no matter how many times you think you know more than me you dont because I am not in this to declare that I am all knowing like you seem to be.

28 Feb 2013 8:40 PM
KY VET

Jacito got last again today.....sa.

28 Feb 2013 8:59 PM
Coldfacts

CHIEF PICAWINNA,

“Coldfacts your supporting evidence is still from how many years ago? “

Is there a moratorium on examples? The example citing Don’t Get Mad is dated 2005. If you consider a seven year old occurrence irrelevant you are being irrational. The history of the Derby spans 135 years.

“I would prefer it, and I think the bloggers on this board would prefer if you don’t open up the ENTIRE history book of racing from when Pegasus”

I gave one example with Native Dancer. You considered it old. I then provided two others. Three examples and you equate it racing in the Pegasus era. Your attempt at being funny has been a miserable failure.

You continue to focus on eras instead of what the example indicates.

28 Feb 2013 9:09 PM
JayJay

Pete : Any thoughts on the Gotham or the Big Cap ?  

Forbidden Apple : I think the key in the Santa Anita handicap is Handsome Mike.   I'm going to bet they'll send him to the front and push GoD to give Richard's Kid a chance.  How long can Mike last, who knows, but I like RTG here, I think it'll be a quick pace which should help set up for RTG.  The horse that intrigues me is Called to Serve, he'll have first jump on RTG being a midpack runner.  I'll probably box RTG, Called to Serve and GoD for the trifecta, then use the same 3 for my super, with Handsome Mike, RK and Stephanoatsee for the 4th spot.  All this is contingent upon the SA track not being a speedway this weekend.  If it's anything like the BC saturday, I can't bet RTG.

28 Feb 2013 9:51 PM
Coldfacts

CHIEF PICAWINNA,

“Coldfacts your supporting evidence is still from how many years ago? “

Is there a moratorium on examples? The example citing Don’t Get Mad is dated 2005. If you consider a seven year old occurrence irrelevant you are being irrational. The history of the Derby spans 135 years.

“I would prefer it, and I think the bloggers on this board would prefer if you don’t open up the ENTIRE history book of racing from when Pegasus”

I gave one example with Native Dancer. You considered it old. I then provided two others. Three examples and you equate it racing in the Pegasus era. Your attempt at being funny has been a miserable failure.

You continue to focus on eras instead of what the example indicates.

28 Feb 2013 10:01 PM
Coldfacts

CHIEF PICAWINNA,

“Coldfacts the Triple Crown is a myth that won’t be attained with the current state of racing “

I find your declaration stunning!

We are less than one year removed from I’ll have Another winning two legs of the TC and being unable to face the starter in the Belmont. How did the state of racing contribute I’ll have Another lameness issues?  These are equine athletes and occasionally they suffer injuries.

You are clearly opposed to examples outside the 21st Century. However, there is no moratorium on education. In 1932 and 1936 Burgoo King and Bold Venture won the first two legs of the TC and did not start in the Belmont. Seventy six years later I’ll have Another became the latest horse to suffer this fate.  

There are those who believe that the current era is significantly different from previous and therefore comparisons are irrelevant. The Triple Crown was just as difficult to attain then as it is now.

It was not a myth then and it is not myth now. It is also not a fleeting illusion to be pursued but never to be again attained.

Revolutionary seems  talented enough to be the next TC winner.

28 Feb 2013 10:04 PM
Coldfacts

JerseyBoy

“One blogger wrote about Woody Stephens and his results with Conquistador Cielo, citing those results as somehow indicating the fitness Woody Stephens developed in his horses.”

The reference to Conquistador Cielo and Woody Stephens had nothing to do with fitness. It was to highlight an example of a well condition a fully fit and drug free thoroughbred wining two Gl races covering 20 furlongs six days apart.  Everybody was shocked when Mr. Stephens made the announcement to stat Conquistador Cielo in the Belmont six days after his Gl victory in the Met Handicap. Under Mr. Pletcher’s 28 day policy Conquistador Cielo  would never have secure  the third leg of the TC.

“Well two years after Conquistador Cielo’s victories, the same Woody Stephens ran Swale in the Kentucky Derby, the Preakness and the Belmont Stakes. One week after the 1984 Belmont, Swale dropped dead.”

You will not leave any stones unturned to discredit my views but with the above you have reached a new low. You should be ashamed!

Swale won the Derby and lost the Preakness. Five weeks later he won the Belmont and subsequently died from causes to date unknown. Neither lack of fitness nor drugs was even considered. If Conquistador Cielo had dropped dead after the Belmont it could have been reasonable to infer that the races were too close. To use the unfortunate story of Swale as a rebuttal provides a window into the type of soul you possess.

“It proves that Conquistador Cielo did not race in the 1990’s”

Interesting assessment! Is there a possibility that Conquistador Cielo was not placed on a program of cocktails leading up to this Met H and was therefore able to recover to tackle 12F six day later? What does the era preceding the 1990s have to do with this issue? The advancement made in nutrition, science and over all keep and care should have result in a stronger more durable thoroughbred. The truth be told drug use has negated these advancements.

28 Feb 2013 10:12 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Coldfacts when you posted the description of jockeys as TINY HUMANS ARMED WITH WHIPS I shouldnt have asked you if you were a writer if so maybe a sitcom writer.

I made a mistake when I wrote INCARNATE when I meant to write reincarnate.

Did you make a mistake when describing jockeys as TINY HUMANS ARMED WITH WHIPS?

28 Feb 2013 10:29 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Coldfacts make your pick and the wager amount on the Gotham.You can teach me how much you know  about horseplaying.

Put the history book away make your pick.

28 Feb 2013 10:33 PM
Coldfacts

Mr. SOS,

“Coldcuts....who is it you like? Any early wagers?”

Against my better judgment I will enlighten you. I have been monitoring horses specifically from the Mr. Prospector sire line as I believe the winner of the 2013 Derby will emerge from same. There has not been a really outstanding horse from this line as yet. The likes of Footbridge, Code West, Palace Malice, Curly Top, Shaking It Up, Omega Star and Treasury Bill need to step up.

The colt that has impresses me the most is Revolutionary. This might come as a surprise to many as I rarely like Mr. Pletcher’s horses. However, I consider this colt an exception. Ironically, he has a Derby negative that I would normally use to eliminate him for the top spot but I am prepare to take a gamble. This negative is associated with his dam Runup The Colors. She was Gl winner that earned over $500K. Derby history reflects that a mare with this type of profile rarely produces the winner of the great race. However there are major some major positive associated with this mare.

Her sire A P Indy has already been the dam sire of a Derby winner i.e., Super Saver. Slewacide another son of Seattle Slew is also on record as a derby winning broodmare sire. Runup The Colors dam was Up The Flagpole who was also the dam of Prospectors Delite who was dam of 2003 HOY Mineshaft, millionaire Tomisue’s Delight and Flagbird champion Older Mare in England, Ireland, & Italy.

Prospectors Delite like Runup The Colors was a Gl winner that earned over $400K.  I am prepared to gamble that this latest daughter of Up The Flagpole has produced a colt that is likely to be the 2013 Kentucky Derby winner. He dose also have the credentials to be the next TC winner.

Start laughing!

28 Feb 2013 11:05 PM
Coldfacts

CHIEF PICAWINNA,

“Did you make a mistake when describing jockeys as TINY HUMANS ARMED WITH WHIPS?”

No! I did it for impact and humor.

28 Feb 2013 11:58 PM
Coldfacts

CHIEF PICAWINNA,

If you properly analyze Champion Boy's PP it will guide you to the colt that will most likely be the winner of the Gotham.

01 Mar 2013 1:46 AM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Coldfacts you like Champion Boy in the Gotham so your bet for this initial bet in the contest is $50 win and place for a total of $100.If you want to change your wager post it.BTW in this contest you cant take the morning line favorite unless you use it in an exacta wager, which you have complied.

01 Mar 2013 8:13 AM
Coldfacts

CHIEF PICAWINNA,

Champion Boy finished none threatening 3rd by 3 1/2L in the MSW race won by Now and Then.  He was also a debutant. His next start was in the Withers against winners. Like eventual winner Revolutionary, he had his issue heading into the first turn and had to be steadied. He eventually finished 5th beaten 5 1/4L.

Now and Then easily defeated Champion Boy in their initial meeting.  If a maiden that exited a MSW race with a 3rd place finish that was capable of getting within 5L of the winner in a G3 stakes, what would the winner of said MSW race have done?

Now and Then is a strapping alethic son of Tizwon.  He was produced from a Meadowlake mare that also produced multiple G1 winner Seventh Street. The 1:11.66 he recorded en route to victory was achieved with a few taps on the shoulder and a hand ride.  This very big colt will certainly be seen at his best with more real estate.

If Champion Boy’s performance in the withers is used as a measure,  Now and Then should at least be competitive in the Gotham. His last work was a 1:00 heading into the race suggest he will be entering the race fit and ready.  

This colt merits being given chance.

01 Mar 2013 8:33 AM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Now and Then is part of a coupled entry,which I wouldnt agree to allow in a contest using a single betting entry,but if you like Now and Then I will compromise to get the contest going.How will you wager on the entry?

01 Mar 2013 9:22 AM
Forbidden Apple

1:08 and Change,

Verrazano is the most well bred horse for grass out of the pool 1 and pool 2 fields.

KY Vet,

Who are your top 3? So far I have seen you pick Shanghai Bobby, Violence, and Overanalyze. All overbet favorites from the Pletcher regime.

JayJay,

I agree, Ron the Greek will win the Big Cap. He does not need Ultimate Eagle in the race running an insane 44 and change pace. I loved how he sat much closer to the pace last out. He will not be able to win from 15 lengths back this year. Game on Dude is in trouble, I don't even like him for place. Stephanoatsee is the horse I think can close late and complete the exacta. And I think Suggestive Boy is the horse to fear most in the Kilroe Mile, not Mr. Commons.

Cold Facts,

Why are you going with Now and Then? He is trained by McLaughlin who you have recently been against for some reason. If Transparent needs a new trainer, then why not Now and Then? Just like every other trainer that has stables in more than one state at a time, he has to trust his assistants when he is not around. Think back to this past summer when he was the hottest trainer around. With huge wins coming from Questing, Dance Card, Alpha, Emcee, It's Tricky, and even Forify. I missed Now and Then's maiden race, so i don't know what he looks like these days. I do know that he was the fattest 2 year old in the barn last year. He was quiet and did not show much in his training back then. I'm definitely going to take a good look at him because I was never a big fan of Transparent. However I do like the new focused look that Transparent has, the light bulb seems to have finally come on for him.

01 Mar 2013 9:33 AM
Rusty Weisner

I'm betting against Overanalyze showing up in the exacta -- bad post, long layoff, not beaten anyone, and when he loses he loses, to mediocre horses.  I think Escapefromreality will be neglected at the windows in favor of Vyjack, and I think he's more eligible for improvement than the latter; in his last he took the lead, was put under restraint, then made a winning move in the stretch.  I don't like the stretchout angle on Ore Pass any more.  I'll hope one of those McLaughlin horses will fill out my exactas:

3,8 box $8

3,1 box $8

3 WPS $6

EscapefromReality boxed with the two McLaughlin entries.

01 Mar 2013 10:23 AM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Coldfacts so am I to assume you like Now and Then, but you dont want to exibit your betting prowess, to us underlings on the blog.Make your wager already.

01 Mar 2013 10:27 AM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Rusty Weisner I will box Vyjack with Elnaawi and cover with the other McLaughlin entry with Vyjack in a box and then play Elnaawi across the board.

7,8 box $8

7,1 box $8

8 WPS   $6

01 Mar 2013 11:33 AM
Rusty Weisner

CHIEF PICAWINNA,

Good luck.  I'm taking Escapefromreality instead of Vyjack not just for the odds, but because he's run faster (and beaten the same horse by more), I expect him to rate, Vyjack shares high weight, and I think he's eligible to improve.

01 Mar 2013 11:40 AM
THE KEYMASTER

Chief Picawinna -

I believe that Bodemeister was mismanaged because he was not developed and trained properly.

Bodemeister was very high on natural ability, but very light on experience.  So rather than developing the horse appropriately, Baffert trained him like a Quarter Horse in hopes that Bodemeister's speed and natural ability would be enough to get him to the winners circle.

Bodemeister was not a rank, need the lead, type of horse.  Bodemeister could have rated if he was trained and asked to do so.  However, there was not enough time for Baffert to do this prior to the KY Derby (not that he would have anyway), so they just asked Bode to run as fast as he could for as long as he could.  This mismanagement ruined what would have been a very nice racehorse.

01 Mar 2013 12:17 PM
THE KEYMASTER

108+

In response to your knock on Verrazano and his sire More Than Ready, can you name me one other good two turn dirt horse sired by Boundary or Leroidesanimaux than their KY Derby winners in Big Brown and Animal Kingdom?

Everyone gets so caught up in facts, statistics, and trends that they forget to look outside the box and read between the lines.

Each horse and each race is different from the next.  I do not think it is wise to blindly apply statistics without thinking about the individual.

01 Mar 2013 12:23 PM
Pedigree Ann

Do not let the grades of the pseudo-Jerome and pseudo-Withers fool you - these were the typical, decent ungraded stakes run on the Inner every winter, the Count Fleet and the Whirlaway, with new names. The horses who run in these are usually second-stringers or Inner track specialists. Good horses who ship in from better circuits have a big advantage, if they take to the surface.

Since the Gotham was removed permanently from being a main track Aqueduct one-turn mile in 2006, no horse that has hit the board has made any noise in the Derby. Winners Visionaire (King's Bishop S), I Want Revenge (Wood Mem), Stay Thirsty (Travers), and Hansen (Iowa Derby) have gone on to win other good races, but they either didn't make it to the Derby gate or were off the board.

01 Mar 2013 12:33 PM
Ranagulzion

Coldfacts,

Please explain for me how it is that you're so enarmoured with Revolutionary when he runs with his head high and leaps?  These are energy-sapping characteristics of which you've been very crtical in the past, saying horses with such action will not be effective going 10 furlongs ...remember Dialed In etc? You're on record as liking smooth energy efficient galloping action in the horses that you tout. Why the inconsistency with Revolutionary?

01 Mar 2013 12:56 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Keymaster I know Baffert trained Quarter horses but that was many grade 1 thoroughbred stakes races ago.I think 2yos are overtrained in this era for one thing because of the money involved.Bodemeister only trained as a 2yo and started racing as a 3yo so IMO that is the way 2 and 3yos will be prepared for the Derby going forward,I dont believe in foundation for a 2yo they dont run as often as they did in previous eras.Last year almost half the field ran in the Breeders cup Juvenile that ran in the Derby, and the best finisher was Dullahan in 3rd.BTW that was unprecedented in the history of both races the Breeders Cup Juvenile and the Kentucky Derby.

01 Mar 2013 1:11 PM
Rusty Weisner

I'll pass on the Gotham.  I think I was getting too cute with my picks.  Overanalyze is the class, with the fastest race at the longest distance and should break up my exactas.  But I'm unwilling to bet him.

01 Mar 2013 1:44 PM
THE KEYMASTER

Chief Picawanna -

I certainly agree that things have changed in preparing horses for the Derby.  Unfortunately, I do not think it is for the best interest of the thoroughbred breed.

The horrible new points system that Churchill has put into place has made the importantance of giving juveniles a good racing foundation even less important.  Churchill has catered to the drug pumping quarter horses trainers that have had success in the thoroughbred business the last 30 years.

I agree with your assessment that juveniles are over trained.  However, I would also say they are under raced.  So many trainers these days are worried about their statistics and no longer give their horses races simply for an education.

We are in an era of horses that have all been over-bred with speed oriented pedigrees that are trained by quarter horse trainers who only train their horses to run as fast as they can for as long.  I don't think there is much horsemanship to drilling a horse until they break down.

01 Mar 2013 1:44 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Rusty Weisner do you still have the same picks for the contest? I pass a lot of races myself when betting real money because of odds, hunches, and indicators that I use for exacta betting,but I play in free contests to have continuity in playing the horses like the majority using PPs.I think there is no edge there if you use PPs over a longer term like a calendar year.But if you are sticking with your picks then I am too.

01 Mar 2013 4:16 PM
1:08 and change

Key:

First of all I guarantee MTR has covered way more mares especially in the US and has at least three more years of breeding.

Leroy:  Always a Princess comes to mind.

Boundary: Come on, Dutrow and IEAH.  Do you really want to go there?

01 Mar 2013 6:19 PM
KY VET

Coldcuts....i have you down for revolutionary.....no early bet?.....He has a chance....

01 Mar 2013 10:13 PM
THE KEYMASTER

108+

All I remembered about Always a Princess was that she beat Blind Luck in short fields at SA while alone on the lead.  I looked her up and see she was trained by Baffert, who has far from a perfect medication violation record, and the only grades stakes she won were 3 G2s against 4, 5, and 6 horse fields.

However, the only point I was trying to make is that the breed and the sport have not changed for the better, and many of the traditionally important standards and trends in the past will continue to be bucked, as we have seen in recent years.

I would much rather have a horse with a turf influenced pedigree that is proven at 10f than a dirt influenced pedigree that is a stretch to even get 9f, like most of the pedigrees we see in our dirt horses in the US today.

I would not at all be surprised if we saw more horses with turf influenced pedigrees continue to do well in the triple crown races simply because they still have some stamina left in those bloodlines.

02 Mar 2013 1:24 AM
Forbidden Apple

Gulfstream March 2:

Race 9- With Sugar On Top #4

I love the breeding and the tactical speed of this filly, she also loves to train. With a slight improvement she can earn her first graded stakes victory.

Race 10- Forty Tales #10

He was flying last out and just missed. With a smarter ride he will win at a short price to complete a 4/10 double with With Sugar On Top.

Santa Anita March 2:

Race 6- Beholder #5

She ran a tough race last out and will return to the winner's circle today. The play is a double with You Know I Know #2 and Insideondoutside #8.

Race 9- Suggestive Boy #3

He ran a hole in the wind last out, expecting the same trip today for the win. Exactas with Silentio #1 and Mr. Commons #8. Also a large double with Ron the Greek #1.

Race 10- Ron the Greek #1

I'm expecting him to stalk Game On Dude and take over at the top of the stretch. His Sunshine Millions win was huge, the added distance today only helps. Straight exactas over Stephanoatsee #8 and Game On Dude #9.

Cold Facts,

Take a look at Oaklawn Race 5 today, the horse is #6 Cold Facts. First time out since June, he has a sharp workout listed.

02 Mar 2013 9:11 AM
Coldfacts

Thanks, he is a useful little horse that I thought had been retired. My namesake Mr. Palmer won recently and I will certainly place a few bucks on my nom de plume.

02 Mar 2013 10:09 AM
Coldfacts

Forbidden Apple,

“Why are you going with Now and Then? He is trained by McLaughlin who you have recently been against for some reason.”

Transparent: The first time I saw this colt in action I immediately observed that he needed blinkers. His trainer did not used the head gear until his 4th start.

Long River:  Finished on the board in his last three starts prior to the Withers. Lasix administered and he finished last. In fact the two McLaughlin colts occupied the last two positions. They were beaten by a maiden making his 2nd start.

Ingonito: This colt has been begging for 9F and he is continually entered in races at a shorter distance. Mr. McLaughlin has stable at Gulfstream Park.  There have been several 9F maiden races contested at GP.

Elmutahid: This colt has good tactical speed but does not finish his races strongly. He is fitted with blinker that will only encourage more speed that he already has. Speedy stamina deficient horses tend to stay on longer without blinkers. Lasix administered for last and he finished last.

Now and Then: This is a nice colt that even Mr. McLaughlin deficient management program will not inhibit.

There are other examples.

The sure sign of a trainer gone  wild is blinkers on the majority of his horses. Mr. Lukas would find a set of blinker to fit a fly.

02 Mar 2013 10:29 AM
predict

3/2/13-Aqueduct, R-10, Gotham Stakes:

11-West Hills Giant

7-Vyjack

4-Ore Pass

12-Overanalyze

Look out for the NY bred today

02 Mar 2013 12:28 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Historians and Horseplayers if MacLaughlin has a Derby hope his name is Elnaawi,otherwise Darley and Shadwell will be paying noimination fees on the Derby trail, which could be used to fill the feed tub of the head that prefer to eat seconds.Those other names listed on this blog are for subterfuge by those with forked tongues.

02 Mar 2013 1:10 PM
Mike Relva

Ranagulzion

When are you ever going to learn regarding Pletcher? Told you the week before Violence got injured all Pletcher does is ruin horses. That's why he has only one Derby. Unlike some on this blog(whom will remain nameless) I don't have a problem saying my knowledge is limited regarding racing. Perhaps I would have time to sharpen my skills if I didn't devote much of my time for retired race horses. One thing I know if Violence really was damaged goods as one reader indicates,he sure as hell shouldn't been racing.

03 Mar 2013 12:44 AM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Overanalyze by the way he ran yesterday is another example of a 3yo who was overtrained and overraced as a 2yo.Human children that are pushed too much too soon by their parents to achieve when they are not ready for all of that is an analogy that will be hard to understand for some because it is not directly related.He will need time to get back into the flow of racing after living a relatively sedate lifestyle being laid-off.

I think he has already reached his peak performance at the age of 2 and it is possible that he could win a prep race on the Derby trail because he does have ability,but I dont believe he can win the Derby.

Violence was lightly raced as a 2yo eventhough out of his 3 races as a 2yo one was a grade 2 and one a grade 1,for a Pletcher trainee. Pletcher seems to get a quick return on investment for the owners he works for and the expensive colts and fillies they buy.

Everyone has to realize this game has A LOT more money involved for all those in it,and the decisions they make involving the horses they own have monetary implications.

03 Mar 2013 7:57 AM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Predict great pick putting West Hills Giant and Vyjack at the top of your Gotham list yesterday.

A question did you visualize him breaking sharply and making the lead yesterday.

I will be honest that is the kind of trip I visualized for Elnaawi,although my image wasnt clear because I thought there were others that would vy for the lead or be close like Vyjack and Overanalyze etc.Its a 3yo race and sometimes just getting out in the 1st group means hitting the board as most of these colts dont know how to rate properly and run from behind to win.Vyjack ran very well considering where he was at the start of the race.

03 Mar 2013 8:21 AM
predict

Chief P,

Thanks for the acknowledgment, I wasn't sure he'd go for the lead, but hoped with his performance in the Java Gold he would and with that outside post thought that would be his best move, he has shown to be a game horse, just a tad short of very good ability. Only regrets I had was I initially liked Elnaawi more than Ore Pass, and I'm still kicking myself for getting off that one. But, it was a nice exacta.

03 Mar 2013 10:54 AM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Predict 30-1 is a good price for the regular Saturday races,do you realize in the last Derby there were I think it was 5 betting interests at 30-1 or more and at least one came in at the bottom of the super.

04 Mar 2013 9:26 AM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Racing on a hard dirt surface is condusive for the commercial breeders to breed for speed.The maladies that have plagued the thoroughbred in the US for decades is more complex than one issue,it is a combination of factors.It will also take some years to resolve at least some changes are being made such as the new point system, and the Salix rule changes.If everything were to stay the same do you think it all would magically change for the better by itself,I dont.

04 Mar 2013 9:32 AM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Predict to clarify there were at least 5 betting interests in the 2012 Derby with odds of 30-1 to 40-1.

04 Mar 2013 10:31 AM
predict

Chief P,

Yes I do realize that 30-1 is not an easy pick to make, but I try to pick who I like regardless of what the rest of the public may think. Especially in the Derby, where all odds are somewhat the result of past performances that were in most cases not the distance of ground of the Derby. So there is alot of guessing as to who is capable and who is not, which can account for some surprises in the finish. I also always, without calling myself a trip handicapper, try to look at who is in the race and how they will try to run, and how that running will affect the outcome of the race. The best example I can give of this approach, and the unexpected results it can deliver, at least by most of the betting public, was the 2002 Belmont when I picked the longshot Sarava. When I looked at the past performances of that race I realized there was really only one horse that I felt could make up ground on War Emblem late, and that was Sarava. So regardless of the fact that the public had disregarded him to what I think was about 70-1 status, I hammered him at the window. Of course War Emblem stumbled in the start but I was still glad to see the crowd of horses that hit the first turn, this told me I might be right and would have a chance with Sarava. Well, when Sarava won and I was one of a very few that was jumping up and down in excitement, I realized you can't just dismiss a horse because the rest of the public has done just that.  I don't know if this answers your questions as how a 30-1 horse can be picked, but remember the favorite only wins about 30% of the time, so the bettors are far from always right. Look for opportunities and don't be afraid if the public doesn't agree. In this year's Derby, we of course don't know who is going to be in the race, but I'm expecting there will be some that are very capable of producing some very fast early fractions. I will be looking for someone to make the starting gate like My Name is Michael. If he is in there he will be capable of finishing and making the board, but if I may project a little into the future, he will not be one of the low odds favorites, if this happens believe me, I will be all over him.  

04 Mar 2013 7:39 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Predict my point was that 30-1 in a regular Saturday race with an 11 horse field is a lot different than a 30-1 shot in the Derby with a 20 horse field.

I tend to structure my tri and super bets conventionally in the Derby with the lower priced shots on top,but an exacta bet in a 10 or 11 horse field is very different.To hit one that pays +200 you had to take the 30-1.BTW I noticed you also picked the favorite and another long shot in your 4 number box.So your box consisted of the 2 morning line favorites with two long shots.

05 Mar 2013 8:54 AM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

I played an exacta box in last years Derby and collected on the exacta of Bode and IHA.It payed more than the exacta of this years Gotham and I mean for a dollar wager.A 20 horse field with all the possible combinations makes exotics a lot more lucrative.

05 Mar 2013 9:04 AM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

My bad just checked it the Derby exacta paid 306 for the 2 dollar wager with the favorite in 2nd and a 15-1 shot in 1st.All you had to do was take the favorite and wheel him in 1st and 2nd to hit the exacta,thats not what I bet but field size makes the Derby the BEST vertical exotic betting opportunity in the US yearly,if its not the top its in the top three.

05 Mar 2013 9:18 AM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

The Tampa Bay Derby has a good field.The majority of the colts 5 out od 9 have won or placed in stakes races,and that DOES NOT include likely less than even money favorite Verrazano.The San Felipe is pretty solid as well.

This weeks fifty pointer prep races are a lot better than the fields assembled for the FOY,Gotham and Risen Star which were also 50 pointers.

06 Mar 2013 5:38 PM
cuba"s classic chef de race

Chief Picawinna, if Palace Malice after been beaten by a horse who paid $272.00 and a Baffert maiden in the slow Risen Star and need to win or finish 2d at lousiana Derby win the roses he and pletcher surely can be invited to the Royal Palace to meet the Queen but that is going to be a long fliegh.

06 Mar 2013 10:07 PM
cuba"s classic chef de race

Who are the favorites to wheel now in exactas flashback?,Verrazano? men i do need more time to think.

06 Mar 2013 10:49 PM
cuba"s classic chef de race

Who are the favorites to wheel now in exactas flashback?,Verrazano? men i do need more time to think.

06 Mar 2013 10:49 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

cuba's ccdrace who knows how the track will play the day of the Louisiana Derby.I know FG plays as a very speed favoring surface,which it wasnt on the day of the Risen Star.I think you know this, but in most races the entrants are so close in ability that the circumstances at the time of the race and during the race determine the winner.You have to be proactive in your selection process, and not think the race will go by the script,which in the case of thoroughbred racing in the US are the past performances.

07 Mar 2013 9:57 AM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

cuba"s ccdrace I only made one bet in pool 2 so far because I only think 3 are in so far.Isan,Orb,and Vyjack and the odds are too low as they are for other betting interests in the 24 colt field which of course includes all others.

07 Mar 2013 9:59 AM

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