Looking for value in the Big Cap

The public is likely to view the 2013 Santa Anita Handicap (G1) as a two-horse race between Ron the Greek and Game On Dude. They might be right, but I doubt there will be any value in going along with that opinion.

I like a pair of improving four-year-olds Called to Serve (6-1 ML) and Stephanoatsee (8-1 ML) to run big. Called to Serve was Grade 2-placed in the summer of his 3yo campaign, then improved in the fall when transferred to trainer Nick Canani. I thought his win in the Discovery Handicap (G3) at Aqueduct was powerful (:35-4 final three furlongs), followed by a nice hand-ride win in the Broad Brush Stakes at Laurel.

His speed figures are a touch below the top two, but they are within striking range. His closing fractions are excellent going 1 1/8 miles, he has been winning with energy to spare, and his pedigree (by Afleet Alex out of a Kris S. mare) suggests 1 1/4 miles will be within his scope.

I also like Stephanoatsee, more to hit the board than as a win threat. Called to Serve left him in his wake in the Discovery, but I think Stephanoatsee is improving, and most importantly, he should appreciate the added ground. Watch how well he finished going 1 1/8 miles when second to Guilt Trip in the Strub Stakes (G2)

 

328 Comments

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THE KEYMASTER

Pete-

Great assessment of the SA Handicap.  I like both your price horses in Called to Serve and Stephanoatsee.  I think they will both run big.

I am going to take the luxury of watching how the SA track is playing before deciding who to put on top, as SA can be extremely biased some days.

Stephanoatsee is certainly an improving horse and 10f will be in his wheelhouse.  If the track is fair and the price is anywhere near 10-1, I might put Stephanoatsee on top.

01 Mar 2013 2:35 PM
Mary Zinke

No value: Game On Dude(win)-can't go against him the way he's coming into the race at his favorite track. I don't think he'll succumb to early pressure. Some are expecting that from Handsome Mike. The Dude should handle that. Ron The Greek-likely will not get the set up of last year, but he should be closer to the pace than he has been when he was unfortunately late, in some races.  Called To Serve--liked him last Spring when no one had heard of him. Series of 9f. races. Richard's Kid- It's 10f. He'll be along after others have dropped off. I like Stephanoatsee and John Scott, but I'm not using the ones with varying degrees of bone fractures this time.

I might consider Guilt Trip for fourth.  

01 Mar 2013 5:27 PM
KY VET

Dont like anyone in that big cap....

01 Mar 2013 8:00 PM
JayJay

Pete : Are you using GoD or RTG with Stephanoatsee and Called To Serve ?   Are you sticking to these two if the track ends up like a speedway ?

I'm going with RTG and Called to Serve on top.  I have a feeling RTG will not even be 2nd favorite here.  No one likes a come from the cloud type horse specially at SA so I'm guessing GoD will be 4-5 and Called to Serve might be the 2nd favorite.  I'd be happy if RTG is 4-1 or higher.

01 Mar 2013 8:13 PM
KY VET

Who do i like in the GOTHAM? Who? I see all these picks.....these horses that cant even run.........Apparently you all dont know what you are about to see...........the unveiling of OVERANLYZE.........bad post? off over 3 months?  This horse is better than his form shows.....and he has the best form....best races............beware!!!!!!!!! I can hear ranag already........"triple crown horse!"

01 Mar 2013 11:26 PM
KY VET

Here we go again!  pete.....just like SKY COMMANDER.......NO! NO! NO!......Call to serve off his 2 best races by far?.........SHIP SAILED!  People, get them BEFORE they already got sharp! Otherwise GET OUT! You will not make money in this game...............The big cap is a NO BRAINER!..................DUDE WINS EASY!!!!!! BET WITH BOTH HANDS!!!!!

01 Mar 2013 11:34 PM
Coldfacts

Ranagulzion,

“Please explain for me how it is that you're so enamored with Revolutionary when he runs with his head high and leaps”

Revolutionary does run with his head high. This action was inherited from his Grand dam sire Seattle Slew. Revisit the 1977 Kentucky Derby and you will see that Seattle Slew had a similar running style.

His dam sir A P Indy was the opposite as he galloped with his head low.

“These are energy-sapping characteristics of which you've been very critical in the past, saying horses with such action will not be effective going 10 furlongs “

Revolutionary has energy efficient strides/leaps. A horse that does not have efficient strides cannot closed from 14L last in a 5 1/2F race where fractions of 21, 44 were recorded. The high head action did not prevent Seattle Slew from winning the Triple Crown.  Revolutionary recorded a time of 1:36.52 for 8F while in hand. No loss of energy was observer.  

Dialed In had a very laborious galloping action. He always appeared s to be climbing a mountain. Revolutionary levels out nicely with excellent stride extension and his head held high. He probably has a short neck.

02 Mar 2013 12:23 AM
JayJay

KY VET : How much are you putting down on Overanalyze and Game on Dude ?  Sounds like they've already won the two big races this weekend from your perspective.  Show us how it's done, post how much you're betting so we know how much you're taking home and we can all be jealous of it.  You going all in on those two ?

02 Mar 2013 2:21 AM
mikepr60

Called to Serve will take it all!

02 Mar 2013 10:10 AM
JayJay

KY VET : No response ?  Just curious how sure you are with these two.  A $2 WIN bet means you're full of it, a $2000 WIN bet on both horses would show you know what you're talking about and can follow through.  Let me know you're bet so I know if I should single them in the P4s...

02 Mar 2013 11:13 AM
Slew

I like the Dude, but the Greek's my favorite.  I'd go with RTG, Dude, and doesn't Called To Serve have Stevens up today?  That's my Tri.

02 Mar 2013 12:03 PM
Mary Zinke

John Velazquez travels to ride Overanalyze in the Gotham.

Escapefromreality,Overanalyze, Elnaawi,Vyjack.

02 Mar 2013 12:05 PM
Coldfacts

KY VET,

Saint X runs again today at GP at 8F. You ridiculed him when I mentioned out of his race.

Get on board.  

02 Mar 2013 12:11 PM
Coldfacts

KY VET,

I also like the Smaty Jones colt Res Judicata

02 Mar 2013 12:13 PM
JayJay

My .50 P4 plays :

AQ :  $8.00

08 :  1, 2

09 :  4, 8

10 :  5

11 :  1, 5, 7, 8

SA :  $10.00

08 :  1, 2, 3, 5, 6

09 :  8

10 :  1

11 :  5, 6, 8, 9

02 Mar 2013 12:30 PM
woodshade

Pete,

Your THS betting numbers are wrong for the Gotham. You were showing PP#'s not Program numbers. Sky Commander is #9 not #10. And Overanlyze is #11 not #12.

02 Mar 2013 12:41 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Coldfacts-

Saint X is a downgrade for us. I believe KY followed up with the 'ridicule'.  Unfortunately, there are no upgrades in the race.  The GP card offers little for Flow players today.

02 Mar 2013 12:50 PM
woodshade

Pete,

Sorry, PP#'s meaning Post Position.

02 Mar 2013 12:57 PM
KY VET

Coldcuts....dont remember saying anything about saint x........but he has a chance today...cant fault your pick.........but i know you dont bet....

02 Mar 2013 4:04 PM
KY VET

commatothetop the fav? aqu race 9? tom fool?    lolol.........problems! drifts out!

02 Mar 2013 4:34 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Very bad beat for Flow players.

Bold Upgrade Saturday's Charm,  tabbed yesterday morning on the Live Blog, yielded late after gaining the lead (no lead change)......ouch !

02 Mar 2013 4:44 PM
KY VET

wow!  commatothetop changes leads, no drift out and gets the bob for the win!   glad i didnt bet....didnt like him......he runs good with problems.......

02 Mar 2013 4:46 PM
-Keelerman

As exciting as the Gotham Stakes and Santa Anita Handicap promise to be, the race I'm looking forward to most today is the Gazebo Stakes at Oaklawn Park, where my top-ranked Derby colt, Titletown Five, makes his three-year-old debut. I'm hoping for a jaw-dropping performance!

In the Gotham Stakes, I hope to see another step foward from Transparent. I still can't believe how impressive he was in his maiden victory. I envision him tracking the pace today and getting first run at the leaders, and from there, I just hope to see him finish well.

-Keelerman

02 Mar 2013 4:48 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

KY VET

   Pardon me?  Comma to the Top whipped their butts good, tanned their hides on the red eye. Wins by a nostril hair but none the worse for the wear after a tough effort last week, and a long plane trip with an upset stomach from that nasty airline food. Will have to admit that he wasn't facing the tough boys from the west but nonetheless they weren't slouches. Way to go. Nice ride by Rosario too but a super effort by Comma to the Top, period.

02 Mar 2013 4:49 PM
KY VET

Jay jay.......300w200p game on dude.....

02 Mar 2013 4:49 PM
KY VET

jay jay.....300w200p overanylze

02 Mar 2013 5:02 PM
KY VET

no excuse for overanylze.....perfect trip.....no horse.......race was even unimpressive......no effort...

02 Mar 2013 5:08 PM
KY VET

tp johnbatt stks....wp #5 admiral kitten

02 Mar 2013 5:16 PM
KY VET

tam race 10 wp #4

02 Mar 2013 5:25 PM
KY VET

fifty shades of hay....sa race 6....400w.....cinch

02 Mar 2013 5:43 PM
KY VET

tough day so far...

02 Mar 2013 5:47 PM
KY VET

tp race 10 wp #4 high dollar kitten

02 Mar 2013 5:50 PM
ROBBIEJOE25

KY VET is betting like he owns a oil well............

02 Mar 2013 6:06 PM
KY VET

whoo hooo! you guys are bad luck! i win, then i have horrible luck on here......weird....anyway winner at tp 10th.....5.60 #4  still a little behind......ok way behind!

02 Mar 2013 6:07 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Another free winner on my favorite website....

02 Mar 2013 6:18 PM
Little Bill

I like Fed Biz to wire the Kilro.

02 Mar 2013 6:19 PM
KY VET

sa race 8...zak n matt...mullins!!! worry about rousing sermon.......love zak.....#8 300w200p........love it!

02 Mar 2013 6:46 PM
KY VET

zak back 20l?   flew for 3rd

02 Mar 2013 6:49 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Fugue-

Looks like a solid selection - good luck.

02 Mar 2013 6:51 PM
Plod Boy Phil

VET-

All you had to do was box the three that JayJay didn't use in the Pick 4.  Damn ping pong balls.

02 Mar 2013 7:00 PM
KY VET

mr commons wp race 9 sa

02 Mar 2013 7:03 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Forest Mouse WPS is my Kilro Was Here

02 Mar 2013 7:14 PM
Little Bill

Wrong again.

02 Mar 2013 7:19 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

At least I got a thrill at 34-1. They should try Forest Mouse down the hill. All I can see is a Game On Dude and Called To Serve Ex box in the Cap so I'm passing.

02 Mar 2013 7:24 PM
THE KEYMASTER

With the scratch of John Scott, only leaves one other horse in Handsome Mike that can keep up with Game On Dude.  So I can't leave Dude out of the top spot.  Going to play Dude & Stephanoatsee on top with Dude, Stephanoatsee, Ron the Greek and Called to Serve underneath.

02 Mar 2013 7:29 PM
KY VET

gg race 8 #2 wp battling atticus

02 Mar 2013 7:33 PM
KY VET

2nd at gg 8th...

02 Mar 2013 7:36 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Congrats to Predict for providing bloggers with the exacta box in the Gotham.

It can be found on Pete's previous Blog.

Well done indeed.

02 Mar 2013 7:39 PM
KY VET

man ...mr commons had alot of trouble......alot of bad trips today....

02 Mar 2013 7:41 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Changed my mind. 3-4-8-9 ex, tri and super boxes in the Big Cap

02 Mar 2013 7:43 PM
ROBBIEJOE25

For all the Baffert HATERS have fun explaing that one......The DUDE by ten in a hand ride

02 Mar 2013 7:56 PM
KY VET

i know it doesnt count....but biggest bet of the year....dude.......yea...he isnt 1 1/4 horse.....super dissapointed at 6/5....but i had alot to do with that..........you dont wanna know how much.......hated other 2 horses they were betting , so bet win and place....too bad longshot got nipped......

02 Mar 2013 8:01 PM
Little Bill

Wrong again was about my Fed Biz pick. I got cocky after the Gotham/Swale hit.

02 Mar 2013 8:10 PM
Plod Boy Phil

VET -

No amount of money you could even imagine betting would change the board in the Big Cap - come on.

The longshot did not get nipped,  thus the nice place price.  Still not sure why one so confident would bother with place money on a 6/5 shot.

02 Mar 2013 8:14 PM
Plod Boy Phil

SA Race 11 - 5 Stoem Power

02 Mar 2013 8:21 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Game On Dude would have been around 20-1 if KY VET didn't bet him.

Fugue

   You weren't wrong by much and you have to go with it when you're hot. I just couldn't see Fed Biz wiring the field but I could see him winning. I thought Elnaawi ran well in the Gotham in 3rd career off of a maiden win and has a nice Derby pedigree with plenty of room to improve.

02 Mar 2013 8:27 PM
KY VET

longshot did hold on for 2nd......perfect storm...3 super horses, 2 figured to go off form 1 left......got my money for pool 2........2 horses bet tommorrow...

02 Mar 2013 8:28 PM
KY VET

i told you phil....i actually bet 2 grand.....1/2 to place because though other 2 would run out.....was kidding about oods change, but im actually shocked...thought id get 2 to 1....3.40 was good enough.....more the way race ran, than the money.......that race was awesome.....ran exactly way i thought......bad day on here though......

02 Mar 2013 8:31 PM
KY VET

boy phil.....remember years ago when the owner of that horse bet 10 grand to win? odds went crazy...horse won though....what was his name? grey horse....

02 Mar 2013 8:33 PM
KY VET

ooppps i meant 100,000....the wacko owner bet......won by a head i think....

02 Mar 2013 8:34 PM
Plod Boy Phil

2 grand does nothing to the win pool - there was just shy of 719K in the win pool with nearly 264K of it on Dude.  Not questioning the bet,  just the notion that you can move the pool. An additional 20k on Dude drops him to $4.20

02 Mar 2013 8:46 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Good result for you.  

I do not recall the example you cited.

02 Mar 2013 8:49 PM
Little Bill

Hansen.

02 Mar 2013 9:34 PM
Little Bill

Yeah, it all makes sense now. Until you put that clue out I was thinking Archie Bunker.

02 Mar 2013 9:50 PM
Little Bill

Dr, I thought for sure Fed whould go to the front, typical Baffert style. He's done it before and had that 46 work goin' on bred for grass.

Elwaani ran a good one. It wouldn't have bothered me if he would have gotten up as I had the West horse keyed with the field. I'll have to watch the race again, I missed Vyjack's move, focusing on West Hills. FTL for Elwaani, did he run his race today, or is it a month from now?

Peace.

02 Mar 2013 10:11 PM
KY VET

Doesnt anyone remember? the odds went from like 10 to 1 to 7-5....years ago.....this owner bet 100,000 grand to win......

02 Mar 2013 11:12 PM
THE KEYMASTER

Ooohhh Baffert really showed the HATERS... he was able to get the DUDE around his favorite track alone on the lead without the horse breaking down.  It must take a mastermind to train a horse to break from the gate and not fall down.

02 Mar 2013 11:47 PM
THE KEYMASTER

Too bad Baffert didn't show the HATERS back in the Breeders Cup.  Ian Wilkes made Baffert look funny by taking Fort Larned out West and making the DUDE eat the dirt of his favorite track for 10f.  Well I guess for only about a mile, as the DUDE threw out the anchor in the BCC well before the quarter pole.

02 Mar 2013 11:52 PM
JayJay

Bad day for my P4s, good thing I got my money early :)

www.facebook.com/.../set

KY VET : How much of your bets are actually US dollars ?  Also, where do you make your bets ?  I can't imagine you making bets and posting in here minutes before the race.  Unless of course, you lug your computer with you at the track.

02 Mar 2013 11:57 PM
JayJay

I'm glad I'm not charging for my picks, otherwise, I'd have to answer to angry customers lol...unless of course I just shut them out which is really bad customer service.

As for the big cap, I have no idea why Handsome Mike didn't go to the lead, it's ridiculous to think he can rate off of GoD.  When GoD got the lead at the start, I tore my tickets up.

03 Mar 2013 12:01 AM
Matthew W

The Duderino was gonesville when they let him alone like that.....like Precisionist, nice horse, I was on John Scott, who was scratched, the other horse I liked today was Jules Journey, whom I played win/place, and was lucky that the only horse I played with him in the exacta was Power Foot, and those two ran lights out, better than The Kilroe, when you factor the pace they were close to....my other play was a disappointment, in the finale, the #5, Storm Power...by the way, watch for Tenkiller Kid out of that race, he will route, and win! All in all, a decent day, which would've been great if Jules Journey wins, and, as usual, he didn't let me down, he ran well, and that's all you can ask----when they run like you figure they should---and you get paid---that's as good as this game gets.

03 Mar 2013 1:54 AM
JayJay

Ranagulzion : Have you looked at the points leaderboard ?  If they are still using the graded earnings, the following horses would be in the field with a pretty much guaranteed spot :

Bern Identity, He's Had Enough, Fortify, Know More

Most of the graded earnings money from that list came from their 2 yr old races.  You prefer these horses to be taking the spots in the Derby rather than who's in at this time ?  You can view the leader board here, you can sort it by Graded Earnings :

www.bloodhorse.com/.../road-to-the-kentucky-derby

I think the new points system is working well as far as getting the right horses in the field.  Of course, the big races are still to come but so far, I think it's working.

03 Mar 2013 2:03 AM
Matthew W

I remember that horse, went from 10-1 to 3-1 in the Big Cap, he bet 90k win, I think....Urgent Request, he held off Best Pal by a long neck.

03 Mar 2013 2:11 AM
Matthew W

Power Foot, blinkers on, fast work, runs faster than The Kilroe, Man'o'Mandella!

03 Mar 2013 2:14 AM
Coldfacts

Ranagulzion,

“I don't know which one TP regards as his best but from what I've been able to evaluate, Overanalyze and Verrazano are the top two in his barn.”

Overanalyze finished a creditable 5th and was not disgraced. His rider specified that he had no kick in the stretch but showed fight. He probably needed the race.  

While the colt has scope for improvement, I cannot see what made you so high on him. Very early in the DD process you made your usual wild declaration that he was the best colt on the Derby Trail. Despite cold facts presented to the contrary, your resolve regarding him remained unshakable. What the status of you resolve? Probably in Union Rags!

Is it too early to ask if you still think Overanalyze is supersedes Revolutionary in stable status?

Well, on to the Tampa Bay Derby. Let’s hope Verrazano can lands the first major Derby prep of 2013 for Team Pletcher. In a recent interview he spoke about his deep bench. Mr. Haskin in a recent Blog equated his long list of colts to an army. Is this an army comprised of paper soldiers?  On paper these soldiers tower over their opponents. However, on the battle field they are meeting more than worthy adversaries and one by one they are going down to defeat. The story is unfolding on script.

Not to worry Revolutionary will be the Super Saver.

03 Mar 2013 7:56 AM
ROBBIEJOE25

Any thoughts on the 6th at Gulfstream today and the Palm Beach as well...........

03 Mar 2013 8:17 AM
Slew

Gee, I wanted to run on the track and start a fire under my Greek.  He just didn't fire. (Shades of the BC Classic). I'm glad Mike Smith finally got his first Big 'Cap.  He did the Dude proud.  

03 Mar 2013 9:24 AM
JayJay

Any brave souls out there betting the KDFW with real money ?  Curious how much people actually play on these and who they pick.

03 Mar 2013 10:10 AM
Coldfacts

KDFW wager options are sucker wagers with ROI contingent on betting interests making the starting gates.

If the wagers were refundable I would be inclined to participate.

What happens to the money wagered on horses that do not make the starting gates? I am sure it is not used to enhance the odds of those from the KDFW pool that do make the cut.

The pool should be conducted two weeks before the Derby when the horses with the 20 highest amount of points are determined.

A pool with 24 wagering interest with only 20 spots available is in reality a wager on who will make the cut and not who will likely win.

03 Mar 2013 10:50 AM
Kevin

Going to play a ticket today.  

GP Late Pick 4)

4,8,9,14/2,8,9/5,9/2,3,9,10,11

Good value plays are Summer Front in the 6th, Unbelievable Dream in the 8th, and Rydilluc in the 10th.  Have separate win bets on them as well.

03 Mar 2013 11:02 AM
predict

JayJay,

I don't like future wagers that you lose if your horse doesn't make the starting gate, should be refundable, except for a field play, in which case if one horse makes the gate then no refund is ok. I would rather play the money on the actual race, knowing who is really going to run. Besides, with 20 betting interests there is plenty of money to be made on the race itself. It is probably the best betting race of the year. I like to go for the tri and super, they can make a good year by themselves. But, casinos being what they are, a service is provided for those that demand it, and there is nothing wrong with that, as long as you know what you're getting into when you bet.

03 Mar 2013 11:07 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Coldfacts-

Thus we are given the option to not get involved.

There's one born every minute...

03 Mar 2013 11:07 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Code West, currently 31-1, is the only horse on my Derby List.

While the Risen Star came back modestly favorable to Closers, it was not sufficient enough to upgrade or downgrade any of the runners on the merits of that race alone.  However, Code West, the lone upgrade for us going into the race for having been on the wrong side of three consecutive races, will carry his upgrade by virtue of another trip under a less than neutral scenario.

03 Mar 2013 11:29 AM
Ranagulzion

Jay Jay,

The Graded Earnings system never failed once to deliver a worthy Derby field therefore the question has to be whether this points system is superior in terms of delivering the best starting line up and the improving the race as a spectacle for the future. It is still only the first week of March and two months is quite a long way out to be assessing the line up ...some comparitively good horses are yet to secure their spot, risking a lot on the final preps, therefore be patient my friend with your comparisons.

Coldfacts,

It is clear that Overanalyze needed the race in the Gotham. He was staying on one-paced but should get a lot out of that race and be razor sharp for the Wood Memorial or Florida Derby. I maintain that he is better than Revolutionary right now. Also I state emphatically that Verazzano will romp the Tampa Bay Derby ...a paid workout for him. Given that Overanalyze disappointed in his comeback race, I'll adjust my ranking somewhat, demoting him to #3 while promoting Itsmyluckyday and Verazzano to #1 and #2 respectively. I'll make my firm Derby selection after the final round of prep races. Right now I just don't see a Triple Crown winner emerging this year.

I should say that Vyjack looked very authoritative in his victory yesterday but his stamina for the Derby distance, based upon pedigree, is still very suspect. One has to factor in the likely scenario that with the points system eliminating the speed horses from the Kentucky Derby, the pace may be a moderate one this year thus affording classy miler types a winning shot over the 10 furlongs Churchill Downs course. We'll have to wait and see.  

03 Mar 2013 12:00 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Kevin-

We have one upgrade in the last at GP.  

4 All That Trip who had the unenviable task of chasing the w-w winner of a Speed favoring Flow last time (as did Aussi Austin who ran a very nice race at 11f yesterday). Additionally, 'ATT' recorded an impressive 'vs Plod Win' with a huge final 3/8s into an Extreme for Speed to win his 2L condition.  

Note that we have also strongly downgraded the 1 River Lemon.  The fact that Rosario has chosen him over the 4 should guarantee value in our eyes.

Good luck today.

03 Mar 2013 12:54 PM
JayJay

Coldfacts / Predict : Agreed, that's why I'm curious because CD has made it known that "we keep your money" if your horse gets injured or failed to make the points but people are still willing to bet a lot of money...I guess some people have a lot of spare change.  I was tempted to put some of my winnings yesterday on Uncaptured but I got smart, he needs to earn a lot of points to make it to the Derby.

Ranagulzion : I guess your thoughts on the new points systems have changed from earlier this year when you were saying it's not working or it will inevitably fail to "let's wait and see how it works" ?  

I was bringing this up to you because you were posting comments about how this new points system is doomed, that there was no reason for a change but looks like you're now willing to see if it works.   Looking at the lineup, I think it's working for what they intended it to do, get rid of the 2 yr old earnings to earn a spot.  It's nice to see big fields in these preps.

03 Mar 2013 12:56 PM
Coldfacts

Ranagulzion,

"I maintain that he is better than Revolutionary right now."

Let me see if the above makes sense. One colt wins a G3 Stakes with an extremely rough trip and the other is off the board and the off the board colt is better of the two as of now? That does not compute!

It’s a foolish dog that barks at flying bird!

”Also I state emphatically that Verrazano will romp the Tampa Bay Derby “

You also predicted that the 2011 Breeder Cup Classic would have been the Uncle Mo Show. When will you stop making these over the top predictions?

Mr. Pletcher is 8 and 1 in the TB Derby. It’s a race that I cannot recall ever being won in a romp. Verrazano has to be very special to achieve a romp. I guess he is better than Bluegrass Cat & Any Given Saturday. BTW both lost.

“Right now I just don't see a Triple Crown winner emerging this year”

The stallion associated with two of the last three TC winners traced back to Nasrullah i.e., Bold Ruler/Secretariat and Bold reasoning/Seattle Slew.  War Pass traces back to Nasrullah and has a son by the name Revolutionary.  His dam sire A P Indy has the two aforementioned TC winners in his pedigree.

I hope this bit of cold fact will open your eyes.

03 Mar 2013 1:12 PM
Matthew W

I always play the future wager, and I know it's a fools wager, I handicap the trainers more than the horses, I usually lose, but last year I had the winner, and I'll Have Another paid 22-1 and 21-1, in two pools, which I had...and I also hammered him to place! One year, I cannot remember the horse, I had a huge price, around 34-1, and he was 8-1 on Derby Day---alas, he ran like 34-1! Today at the Great Race Place, I fancy a horse returning after only one week, and he had a hard race, at that---shades of Comma To The Top---Race 2: #2 Honour The Deputy, who comes out of a real tough heat, and he ran lights out---8-1? I wish, the other horse I fancy today is in race #1: #2 Unusual.Jazz, who has won twice at the 1 1/8 distance, and 1 1/8 is a "specialty distance", and I notice no other horse in the race has won at 1 1/8, so I'll take a bite on him, playing to win and boxing in exact as with #3 Senator Bob and #6 Teafatiller, who just ran a real improved race, in which he fought throughout the stretch, and I love a longshot who shows improvement like that...

03 Mar 2013 1:26 PM
Coldfacts

Over the last 10 years Multiple Eclipse Award winning trainer Todd has made every established trainer look ordinary with his achievements. I have been maintaining spreadsheets on certain areas of program. I have been focused for some time the head gear used on most if not all his horses. His mentor Mr. Lukas uses the blinkers of every horse that enters his barn. In recent time another of Mr. Luka’s former assistant Mr. McLaughlin has also become blinkers crazy.

Mr. Pletcher uses what appears to be a Figure 8 Bridle on all his horses. Based on information available this type of bridle:

'Aids in keeping the horse's mouth closed, which prevents evasion of the bit by jaw-crossing, as well as keeping the tongue in place.'

Mr. Pletcher had live horses in the Holly Bull, FOY, Gotham, Withers, Risen Star and Swale. Only Revolutionary was successful. All the horses that defeated Mr. Pletcher’s short priced horses were affixed with tradition bridles with VyJack being a possible exception. It was noticeable that when Violence and S/Bobby were challenged they tried to fight back but did not find a lot extra and appear stressed. I will be watching to see how many of the 9F preps Mr. Pletcher’s young solders with this particular type bridle.

When horses begin to tire and come under pressure, do they make adjustment to counter the resulting stress? Are these adjustments inhibited by these preventative types of bridles and consequently create additional stress?

These restrictive bridles appear to have a straitjacket effect on horse’s mouths. Could they be overcorrecting issue that could otherwise be addressed with less severe measures?

03 Mar 2013 1:59 PM
JayJay

Matthew W : Was it Funny Cide ?  I remember he had a big KDFW odds but ran around that odds come derby day.  Also, how much do you wager ?

03 Mar 2013 2:46 PM
Ranagulzion

Jay Jay,

You not only misunderstood what I said you misquoted me. Where did I say "let's wait and see how it works"? Go back and read my post above responding to you, dated 03 Mar 2013 12:00 PM. I said you need to wait before comparing ...I already know that this points system is inferior to the Graded Earnings system but there are many who need to see it falter before being convinced. I know that the system was not properly conceived and I understand the reason: control of the qualifying process. They are going to tweak it like crazy to correct the bungling. The GE system worked extremely well for 26 years ...thats a hard act to follow for this new half-baked system.  I'll agree with those who say that the later prep races are more exciting for the public as a result but I don't think that it's in the best interest of the trainers to have their charges forced to produce peak efforts a month out, to qualify, or of the Derby to have horses that will likely "bounce" coming off huge qualifying efforts.

Are you happy with a system that requires good fillies to run against the colts before the big race ...Eight Belles never needed to, nor Rachel Alexandra before the Preakness (she could have won the Derby, no doubt)?    

03 Mar 2013 3:16 PM
longwaytomay

Todd Pletcher does use figure 8's more than most trainers. Why? He uses them to keep the mouth closed because he rarely tongue ties his horses.

03 Mar 2013 3:24 PM
Matthew W

I don't wager a lot, but last year I bet around $800 on I'll Have Another, my all-time biggest bet, surpassing my $200 win/place/show bet on Tabasco Cat--- he didn't fire in the slop, then he won The Preakness/Belmont---usually I'll bet $200 on The Derby, and maybe two or three $10 or $20 bets on the futures, last year was my third Derby "killing", and last year was also the third time I showed a year end profit on bettin' the ponies, the first time in more than 35 years......

03 Mar 2013 3:24 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Free picks on my favorite web site go 1-2 today.  Net result: another profit for Flow players.

03 Mar 2013 3:35 PM
Ranagulzion

Coldfacts,

Are you touting Revolutionary as a potential Triple Crown winner 2013?  Brave or crazy?

This crop appears to be loaded with good miler type horses so the Belmont Stakes is going to be a major hurdle if any of these types win the Derby. Revolutionary, being by War Pass has stamina in his pedigree for the Derby but the Belmont is going to be an entirely different kettle of fish my friend.

I found your remarks about Todd Pletcher's consistent use of the figure-eight bridle interesting. I myself have wondered about the fact that horses have peculiarities and that some may not like/respond well to certain types of equipment. I remember last year Michael Matz saying that Union Rags did not respond well to the tongue tie, leading him to abandon ideas of using it on race day. I wonder if there's any research information on the comparitive use of racing equipment. There is nothing wrong with a trainer's preference for particular equipment, for instance, Nick Zito seems invariably to use the shadow roll, therefore it may be unfair to examine the issue in the context of a criticism of Pletcher's training/racing philosophy.

03 Mar 2013 3:36 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Ranag-

One thing is clear. 'Ping Pong' can not process the written word.  He misinterprets every post.  In fact,  he mis-read Matthew W's post regarding the long future odds horse that went off at shorter odds in the race and ran terribly.

Save your energy.

03 Mar 2013 3:38 PM
JayJay

Ranagulzion : You again stated that it's inferior, so why are you telling me to wait and compare ?  There's enough data right now which I used as an example to compare the two systems.  At this time last year, horses like HHE and Bern Identity already have secured a spot in the field.  That's the main goal of this new points system.  Now those two are running as a 3 yr old but not doing well enough to justify a secured spot if the earnings system is still in placed.  

You already said it's inferior, and that it will falter but so far I don't see any proof, in fact, it's actually proving to be working based on what their intentions were.  Now none of the 2 yr olds that made money last year have a guaranteed spot, they all NEED to run as a 3 yr old and run well.  I think that will only lead to a very good field, and whoever gets in, would've earned it the proper way.

I'm happy to see horses actually run against each other.  This is horse racing, they're going for the biggest race.  Why are you so in favor if giving other horses advantage ?  If they're not good enough, then they're not good enough.  I don't agree that the fillies should even try the derby or running against the boys.  There are very very very few fillies that are strong enough to do that.  Fillies should run against fillies, no one should take away anything from them just because they don't run against the boys.  Look what happened to Rachel...

I was wrong, I thought you were actually seeing the light... you won't give it a chance.  There's nothing in the current system that shows it's inferior to the old system.  So you don't see any issues with HHE and Bern Identity taking a spot that could prevent some of your horses from making the field ?   I like Bern Identity for the derby but I know he has not earned it as a 3 yr old, so I'm happy he doesn't have the spot yet.  He'll have to win races to earn it.... what a concept huh... EARNING A SPOT in the derby.

03 Mar 2013 3:38 PM
JayJay

Matthew W : Oh.. $10 or $20 is nothing, I thought you were betting like KY VET ... like some obscene amount that really changes the odds.

LOL PBP, are you popping veins reading my comments ?  You're like a soft stalker, I wonder how many times you come on this blog just to read my comments.  Sorry, I still think your system is a scam, seriously...any one that pays that amount of money for a couple of guys opinion, I have to question.  I made more money with my guessdicapping this weekend than your "upgrades/downgrades".  Again, why not post a simple win / loss record this year ?  Are you afraid to show the truth ?  Don't bury us with all the explanation, just a one line that show how many upgrades won and lost.  Simple enough right ?

03 Mar 2013 4:10 PM
KY VET

Way to go matt! Urgent request....one of the strangest things ive ever seen in racing.....went to lead, got past...then fought back......

03 Mar 2013 4:36 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Kevin-

Well done Leg 1.

03 Mar 2013 4:48 PM
KY VET

Breakfast on the backstretch today......watched horse #1 jog............bet winnings from aqu....on pool 2.........300win and 200 win.................we will see..............now im slightly behind......

03 Mar 2013 4:50 PM
KY VET

Breakfast on the backstretch today......watched horse #1 jog............bet winnings from aqu....on pool 2.........300win and 200 win.................we will see..............now im slightly behind......

03 Mar 2013 4:50 PM
predict

as of 3/3/13 by earnings:

1.Shanghai Bobby  $1,731,000

2.Goldencents        $740,000

3.He's Had Enough    $442,000

4.Vyjack             $405,000

5.Itsmyluckyday      $393,600

6.Overanalyze        $303,381

7.Uncaptured         $292,374

8.Dynamic Sky        $271,660

9.Ive Struck A Nerve $268,000

10.Den's Legacy      $265,000

11.Orb               $240,000

12.Power Broker      $210,000

13.Super Ninety Nine $200,000

14.Oxbow             $196,000

15.Will Take Charge  $152,791

16.Falling Sky       $122,500

17.Flashback         $120,000

18.Revolutionary     $120,000

19.West Hills Giant  $89,000

20.Fear The Kitten   $84,890

03 Mar 2013 5:02 PM
KY VET

Coldcuts knows more than pletcher now...........how does he make this stuff up?  he's all about breeding, then chooses a war pass horse?

03 Mar 2013 5:06 PM
JayJay

Figures he'd be quiet again lol.    Just for the record, I will NOT sign up, hopefully you have learned to accept that.  I dont like wasting money :)

I'm gonna head out and actually play some before the weekend is over.  Good luck to all betting real money !

03 Mar 2013 5:10 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Do you think it's possible that he is unaware of internet wagering?

03 Mar 2013 5:22 PM
Little Bill

Palm Beach- Keying the 7.

03 Mar 2013 5:26 PM
KY VET

sa race #5.....5 to 1 on #7 ARYANAS LOVE wp 200w100p

03 Mar 2013 5:27 PM
KY VET

Jay...take the OUIJA BOARD.......You probably lost your DICE.........

03 Mar 2013 5:32 PM
Plod Boy Phil

VET - your back !

03 Mar 2013 5:35 PM
Plod Boy Phil

you're back rather

03 Mar 2013 5:35 PM
KY VET

Sometimes......its just as easy as it looks.........a love wins easy.......bet down to 7/2.....9.40 4.60.......+870

03 Mar 2013 5:41 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Congrats Kevin - you got your best possible result.  Well done.

No run from the 4 at 39-1,  but the 2 was as bad as we thought to receive a rare bold downgrade.

03 Mar 2013 6:18 PM
Ranagulzion

Jay Jay,

The Derby field is not yet finalized therefore your remarks about Bern Identity and He's Had Enough are premature. By the way those colts were not gifted stakes ...they'd have EARNED their spot ...only earlier, if they actually are deemed fit to run by their respective trainers, come declaration time. Why is it that you fail to see the pre-maturity of your comparison against a system that stood the test of time?  Beats me.

03 Mar 2013 6:21 PM
KY VET

300w FLASHBACK

200w NORMANDY INVASION

Hope you people are right about shanghai...he still scares me....verrazzano could be great, as flashback, but just think flashback can come off pace more than v.................like the paths they are taking to the derby....fairly easy paths....

03 Mar 2013 6:59 PM
Kevin

Thanks Phil. Very good day with 2 value winners and a pick 4. You were right with the 2 in the last.

03 Mar 2013 7:17 PM
Plod Boy Phil

I split a $2 ticket on Code West with the pan handler on the corner...I owe him $1 still.

03 Mar 2013 7:24 PM
KY VET

havin great day!

03 Mar 2013 7:28 PM
KY VET

poor bridge jumpers! went the day well had breathing issue........

03 Mar 2013 8:32 PM
KY VET

NICE! FLASHBACK out works dens legacy by 2 lengths.....59 flat...best of 63....bullet!

03 Mar 2013 10:02 PM
Secreteriat

I guess Game on Dude answered the weight question clearly.

The best horse in the right conditions will overcome 3 to 7 lbs. Ron the Greek could not keep up with him and got beat by 7+ lenghts. I remember when Forego used to cary 130+ lbs and still won.

Glad I stuck with Vijack in my show pool contest. Hundreds of players had Overanalyze. I love this blog. I've been betting horses for 40+ yrs and I learned the the thrill of victory and the agony of defeat. More often than not horses have made an ASS out of me! Thanks all for your input. Love these blogs

04 Mar 2013 9:47 AM
Pedigree Ann

"being by War Pass has stamina in his pedigree for the Derby"

You talking about the same War Pass who flubbed it both times he tried 9f?

Jay Jay -

What happened to Rachel Alexandra was not because she raced against males on a couple of occasions. It never hurt little Dahlia to run against males, and she won Britain's best wfa at 3. Or Ta Wee, who toted 140 lbs to beat them. Or Relaxing, who was only a length behind John Henry in the JC Gold Cup. Winning Colors and Genuine Risk won races after the Triple Crown grind - Winning Colors' ran a bang-up second in the BC Distaff.

I don't know where this concept comes from, but running against males is NOT injurious to a female just because they are males.  Because it is tougher competition, maybe. One of the most horrific injuries to a female I ever saw was when 3yo champion Go for Wand was in a no-holds-barred fight to the wire with champion older mare Bayakoa and broke down.

What happened to Rachel may have been that she was a miler by inclination for whom 9f-9.5f was at the absolute limit of her ability. Against fellow fillies, she could air at those distances, but against open competition she had to give her all. She had had a full winter/spring, so perhaps after the Preakness she should have had some farm time to recuperate. Keeping her stabled at the track from Sept to March (Woodward to FG race) instead of farm time was also a mistake, IMHO.

04 Mar 2013 10:39 AM
Forbidden Apple

If Game on Dude is so good, then he should have no problem shipping east and facing horses like Fort Larned, Wise Dan, or Bourbon Courage. Ron the Greek was a complete no show, maybe he just loves the slop. My weekend ended well when Summer Exclusive broke his maiden for Gomez in race 11.

KY Vet,

Beware of what? Overanalyze looks like he should be ready to win the Timely Writer overnight stakes. The same route Uncle Mo took on the KY Derby trail.

Ranagulzion,

Another bang up losing weekend for your super trainer. Overanalyze, Johannesburg Smile, and Forty Tales all ran poorly. I actually thought Forty Tales had some talent, I was clearly wrong. Good luck in the Tampa Bay Derby. It looks like Revolutionary is the best horse left in the barn. He should easily handle Vyjack in the Wood. Shanghai Bobby also has a chance for second or third in the FL Derby.

04 Mar 2013 11:46 AM
Forbidden Apple

I forgot to mention how poorly Tokyo Time was ridden by Castellano, it cost me big time. He remained on the inside and got bumped around. All he had to do was move to the outside for a comfortable win.

04 Mar 2013 11:47 AM
Coldfacts

Mr. SOS,

“Coldcuts knows more than pletcher now...........how does he make this stuff up?  he's all about breeding, then chooses a war pass horse?”

You continue to amaze with your inability to understand the context in which certain point are made or concerns raised.  

Trainers know best! Why did Team Valor Stables remove their horses from the keep and care of Mr. Pletcher?  Interestingly enough they had immediate Derby success using none other than Mr. Pletcher’s #1 jockey.

Is there a one fit all bridle? Are Figure 8 Bridles too restrictive and create additional stress on horses when they come under pressure? Would tongue ties be better?

Do major European trainers use Figure 8 Bridles?

Many of the horses that have been defeating Mr. Pletcher’s overwhelming favorites have not been adorned with the fancy looking head gear.  If a Figure 8 Bridle is such an effective replacement for a tongue tie and other traditional bridles, why is it not widely adopted?

I pose the above questions on the type bridle because it appears to be very restrictive. They may look very good as part of a horse’s equipment but are they the bridles best suited for particular horses?

Mr. Lukas is blinkers crazy could Mr. Pletcher be Figure 8 crazy?

04 Mar 2013 1:02 PM
Matthew W

I don't think I've ever seen an easier win than Game On Dude's Big Cap----the move inside by Smith was breath taking----it took the other speed out of the equation, the race was over at that point! What a move! That compares with his letting Twice Over go past inside the 1/8 pole before reeling them in in the '09 Classic, just great, big race moves---legendary! I think Baffert has (finally) found his jock.

04 Mar 2013 1:19 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Forbidden Apple-

Castellano should have just put his blinker on and hit the gas pedal....simple.

Your analysis is similar to the analysis that lead you to believe that Forty Tales was unusually talented. Both you and Pete saw events in his runner-up effort to Honorable Dillon that simply did not exist.

04 Mar 2013 1:21 PM
Coldfacts

Mr. SOS,

“ he's all about breeding, then chooses a war pass horse?”

Despite the efforts of many to transition you from your plateau of ignorance to one of knowledge, it is proving to be a futile effort.

Elusive Quality was the sire of Derby winner Smaty Jones. He was not known for his exploits at 9f & 10F. He was best known for setting a WR  of 1:31 3/5 in the 8F Glll Poker H contested on turf. He would probably need an oxygen tank beyond 8.5F.

Distorted Humor was the sire of Derby winner Funny Cide. He was not known for his exploits at 9f & 10F. He was best known for setting a NTR of 1:21 in the 7F Gll Churchill Downs H. He finished 2dn in the 9F Fayette and Kentucky Cup Classic. He was not a major router.

Our Emblem was the sire of Derby winner War Emblem. He was not known for his exploits at 9f & 10F. Subject to correction he did not win a graded race and was restricted to middle distance races.

None of the above three Derby winning sires have the resume of War Pass. None were crowned champion in any category during their racing careers. War Pass had exceptional speed and while he was not capable carrying same over 9 and 10 furlongs, it does not mean that he cannot be a Derby winning sire. His dam sire Mr. Prospector was no router but sired a winner of each leg of the Triple Crown.

War Pass is a grandson of Blushing Groom. Derby winner Animal Kingdom was sired Leriodesanimaux a grandson of Blushing Groom. Leriodesanimauxe is best known for his exploits as champion turf miler.

Bold Reasoning sired TC winner Seattle Slew.  While Bold Reasoning won his first seven starts, he will be best remember for setting a NTR for 6F at Belmont Park. Seattle Slew was from Bold Reasoning’s first crop. He like War Pass did not last long in the breeding shed as he had to be euthanized after his 3rd crop.

Revolutionary was produced from a dam line loaded with stamina. An exceptional miler crossed with an exceptional stamina line has the potential to mix speed and stamina for devastating effect.

04 Mar 2013 2:00 PM
Coldfacts

Ranagulzion,

“Are you touting Revolutionary as a potential Triple Crown winner 2013?  Brave or crazy! ”

The last time I checked I was not being processed for admission to a loony bin.  Let me enlighten you.

Revolutionary was only asked to run for one furlong in the Withers. When he was asked he had to tread a needle to secure victory. Many young horses would have shied away from entering such narrow spaces. He opened an estimated 10L on the fields in a jiffy in his gallop out. While the other were sucking wind his rider was having problems pulling him up.

In his MSW victory he opened 8L on Transparent effortlessly and was geared down to record a time of 1:36.52. He came back to the winner’s enclosure pulling a bus.

In the above mentioned races the colt did not expend a lot of energy and yet he was very impressive in victory. Are you suggesting that a colt that has G1 speed and what appears to be an endless energy reservoir does not have the potential to be the next TC winner?  Can you specify any other 3YO that has won races so effortlessly?

Barring the emergence of a more impressive colt and Revolutionary says injury free and has not been flattering to deceive, he should be the one they will all have to defeat in all three TC race.

04 Mar 2013 3:43 PM
KY VET

Coldcuts.....pletcher is over 30 percent.........you= 2%.....im not a breeding guy....or a weight guy.......im a horse guy.......you really give alot of credit to equiptment, or lasix, or bute.......these things are not that big of a deal.......its the horse!!!!!

04 Mar 2013 4:01 PM
Forbidden Apple

Castellano simply needed to stay on the outside of Kitten's Point. At the top of the stretch he was determined to get the inside while passing 2 tired horses. The outside opened up quickly, bad ride in a six horse field. I needed Tokyo Time for a straight exacta over Kitten's Point.

Forty Tales and the other Pletcher's have no excuses.

Transparent and Stephanoatsee were both outrun and lacked needed class.

04 Mar 2013 4:02 PM
KY VET

Tired of all you people after a horse loses, you say that they sucked anyway......ron the greek couldve beat dude.....just the wrong day....overanylize was good....something not right there......forty tales flew home before that last race.....plod says he wasnt good anyway.....you people are rediculous!.........horses dont run the same every time................learn that, or get out!

04 Mar 2013 4:05 PM
KY VET

Coldcuts is all about breeding.....every year.....never right........but NOW.....apparently thinks it doesnt matter!.....gave examples of suspect breeding on derby winners...................has the wacko learned? ........

04 Mar 2013 4:08 PM
KY VET

I just heard the top 10 priced horses from the keenland sale that are 3 yr olds now........none derby contenders...........none have won.................pretty funny! Is this true?

04 Mar 2013 4:20 PM
Forbidden Apple

When are you going to back up and pick a winner? Game on Dude was not good enough in Dubai. And he was a complete no show in the Breeders Cup, where he ran like Quality Road and Uncle Mo. Let me know when Game on Dude wins a Grade I race outside of California. It's only March, he just peaked for the 2013 Breeder's Cup Classic. Ship east and face the best. Ron the Greek is better than his latest outing.

04 Mar 2013 4:21 PM
KY VET

Really? VYJACK bet down to 11-1 in pool 2?   a 93 beyer? maidens run 93s.............i told you it was a weak race....because the fav. ran horrible.......the field was poor..............lower odds than flashback?  are you serious? Thats a 1 1/4  horse?  

04 Mar 2013 4:26 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Eased into pool 2 of KD futures because hardly any colts have actually qualified yet except ISAN,ORB and Vyjack, very unlike previous years.Played two from the generals in an exacta box,both are in the group of horses that have 10 points and the exacta pays well.

04 Mar 2013 4:34 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

KYVet Richard Dutrow trainer of Saint Liam reportedly bet up to one million dollars on his trainee in the 2005 Breeders cup classic,if this is who you are referring to it was more than a $100,000 but might have been less than a million.

04 Mar 2013 4:39 PM
Coldfacts

Ranagulzion,

"Also I state emphatically that Verrazano will romp the Tampa Bay Derby “

Interesting prediction! What do the cold facts indicate?

The trainer has sent nine horses to the TB Derby and has come away with one victory. Many of these horse were to the off time favorites but were found wanting at the finish.

Your undefeated Verrazano who is a January foal should have a maturity advantage over other colts with April and May foaling dates.  He is projected to enter the starting gates in the TB Derby as the 1-2 favorite. It is likely that he will meet the also undefeated Purple Egg who is a May foal.

Which has the more impressive resume?

Verrazano has recorded two wide margin victories at GP. The second was as impressive as Itmayluckyday’s victory in the GP Derby.

Purple Egg has recorded three victories at three different tracks. His last victory in the Inaugural at Tampa Bay was visual impressive as he chased fast rations i.e., 21, 45 and pulled off for a commanding victory.

While Verrazano has been like a fine English gentleman in his demeanor, Purple Egg had been a bad actor who had to be scratched twice at the starting gates.

Trainer’s Quote after MSW victory at Monmouth Park:-

"The first time he went right up in the air and ran off. The next time I walked out there with him and even though he'd been schooled with the pony, he acted like he wanted to kill him. It was horrible. He had both front feet over the pony and knocked the pony girl off. That kind of behavior only got worse, so unfortunately, we had to geld him."

Purple Egg appears to be a mean individual who can now channel all his energy resources into racing since he is now a gelding.

Does anyone member the outcome of the Derby between the over hype January colt Dunkirk and May gelding Mine That  Bird?

04 Mar 2013 4:41 PM
KY VET

Game on dude 116 beyer.....thats awesome....thats what a great horse looks like.............by the way, uncle mo as 3 yr old ran 118!.......what a race!  you people think this stuff is done all the time?.........pretty special............oh......union rags never over 100.......vyjack 93..................perspective , people!

04 Mar 2013 4:46 PM
Coldfacts

KY VET,

This will conclude the exchange between us as you are a waste of valuable time.

This Board is intended for high level intellectual discussion between TRUE thoroughbred enthusiasts. Those who wish to share their vast knowledge and passion are appreciated. You clearly have not meet the criteria.

04 Mar 2013 4:49 PM
Plod Boy Phil

VET-

My opinion of Forty (tall) Tales' race from Feb 2 was posted immediately after Pete called him 'much the best' following the  imaginary trouble on the rail. My point was that he had no trouble and was 'just a horse'.

He used the same phrase in describing Overanalyze's chance prior to the Gotham. I had no opinion prior to the Gotham,  thus I have not commented on the race.

04 Mar 2013 6:03 PM
KY VET

plod....the point made by pete might have been true.....that was that day, forty tales ran worse.....doesnt mean he didnt run great the other day.........is ron the greek 7 lengths worse than god?......no..........

04 Mar 2013 7:00 PM
KY VET

Apple.....you dont think god is good or something? You say he cant win in dubai? or syn track?  Look, if he lost, youd say you knew he couldnt win at 1 1/4.......dont be foolish....

04 Mar 2013 7:02 PM
Ranagulzion

Coldfacts,

Bring on Purple Egg bro ...be my guest and watch Verazzano make mince meat of the opposition in Tampa on Saturday ...can't wait.

04 Mar 2013 7:15 PM
Plod Boy Phil

VET -

I'm fairly convinced that you are predominantly a final time based speed figure guy.

Under that premise, isn't the figure Vyjack earned in the Gotham a perfect fit into his overall development?  He showed the ability to rate kindly behind a large field and finished willingly.  He recorded a figure that will not damage him. The race may very well set him up for a much improved race in the Wood.  As you have emphasized,  peaking in Feb and March is not the goal.

Since we are still working on last week's figures, I'll reserve final judgment until then.

04 Mar 2013 7:27 PM
Plod Boy Phil

The Racing Flow figure for the Gotham is in.

Vyjack recorded an ultra-impressive 'vs Plod Win' in running through a Speed favoring Flow from an early position as a deep closer.

Downgrade West Hills Giant, though anyone cashing him at robust odds on Saturday need not worry about tomorrow.

04 Mar 2013 8:18 PM
Coldfacts

Ranagulzion,

The stakes record for the Tampa Bay Derby is 1:43.11 established the 2006 Champion 2YO Street Sense.

Do you expect Verrazano to break this record?

The race is rarely won in a romp as it attracts stakes caliber horses. This will be the best field Verrazano will be meeting.  Dynamic Sky, Falling Sky and OffLee Fast are probable starters and they are very nice colts. Falling Sky  and OffLee Fast  will probably be upfront with Verrazano. These are not colts that Verrazano will just blow by as they are capable of 46 half mile and 1:11 for 6F.  The race will set up nicely for Dynamic Sky and Purple Egg. Dynamic Sky has raced over the TBD surface twice and has an advantage.

As previously mentioned Purple Egg is May foal. When May foals show his type of speed and ability they are extremely dangerous. This colt has been sick and had some time off. He ran some fast times prior to being rested for recuperation. He is going to return stronger and improved.

He is clearly a big, aggressive and fast gelding that will be in a mean mode when he starts feeling the stings from his riders whip.

I do not believe Verrazano will win TBD and if he does it will not be in a romp.

04 Mar 2013 8:23 PM
JayJay

Pedigree Ann : I didn't mean to indicate she was injured by running against males, I was referring to her being gutted because she run so hard against the boys, I can still visualize Borel whipping her in the Woodward all the way to the finish line.  I don't think it's normal for a filly to run against boys like Rachel did.  I didn't like her rabid supporters, but I actually like Rachel and had a lot of respect for what she's done.  The price of glory...

04 Mar 2013 9:32 PM
KY VET

Plod boy.....speed figures are the best way to get a time of race...you know this....variant added in........it shows how fast a race was.......i use it for that....i dont bet the best beyers....i use a diff method...........your spot on, on your point, that being a slow time good for the horse. point is...HE IS ALMOST FAVORED! In pool 2.....COME ON MAN!

04 Mar 2013 10:04 PM
KY VET

Look who vyjack beat.....2nd 3rd 4th.......absolute weak weak horses....thats how you close in a slow pace......(track made fractions look slow).....you can do that against nothing........fav didnt run at all........just like revolutionary........it looked good watching race because they did it against nobody........

04 Mar 2013 10:07 PM
Little Bill

High level intellectual discussion......that's rich.

04 Mar 2013 10:13 PM
JayJay

Glad to see some has already moved on to the upcoming races while PBP handicaps last weeks races.  Jokes on me though, looks like he actually picked the winner Vyjack in his 8:18PM post lol.  

Have to agree with Coldfacts on Verrazano, IMO, he might just be another Quality Road, who "romps" at GP but not much outside that track.  If he does go off at 1-2 and wins, there's no meat in there... not even minced meat.  Falling Sky will probably take some money too which makes Dynamic Sky a good play for me, even at 5-2.

KY VET : How much did you bet on Flashback in the KDFW ?  You don't normally get excited about workouts, you must've gone all in on him.

04 Mar 2013 10:14 PM
KY VET

Pedigree ann...........in a way, running against males, does hurt filly or mares.......running fast hurts horses......and males run faster.....so, running against males would make a mare have to run faster.......therefore, putting more stress on the horse......just like a male running against top company........sorry, but true..................Zenyatta ran slower more races......rachel ran faster more races......thats what happens.........

04 Mar 2013 10:24 PM
KY VET

300w flashback.....26.80

200w normandy invasion.....36.00

early wager pool 2.............

04 Mar 2013 10:26 PM
Plod Boy Phil

VET -

Again, we measure relative speed, not absolute speed, so variants and the 'speed' of the track is not a factor in our analysis of Flow.

I agree that Vyjack should not be the favorite in Pool 2, but that is the nature of the wager and the betting public. Whichever horse wins a prep on that weekend wil be bet heavily.

04 Mar 2013 11:00 PM
Plod Boy Phil

For the less knowledgeable on this blog,  there is a difference between handicapping old races and analyzing them.  The analysis of past performances is a means of evaluating horses.  Removing the lid on an air machine in order to get a ping pong ball to rise through a tube is not.

04 Mar 2013 11:05 PM
Coldfacts

Prominent colts Tesseron, He's Had Enough, Flashback and Normandy Invasion were sired by Tapit. This stallion is one of the most overbred each year. The prospect of these horses winning the Derby is very remote. Tapit bred 170 mares in 2009 and there are 15 horses from this sire nominated to the TC. .

05 Mar 2013 8:00 AM
Forbidden Apple

KY VET,

My point is that Game On Dude is good in CA and he just peaked in March. Fort Larned will beat him again this year, bring it on.

Coldfacts,

Flashback is a serious horse, regardless of who his sire is.

05 Mar 2013 9:22 AM
Coldfacts

Forbidden Apple,

Why is he more serious than any other fast CA colt? He is a nice clot but I would not consider his serious as yet. If he wins the San Felipe he can then be considered serious.

05 Mar 2013 10:30 AM
THE KEYMASTER

Normally I would be on the bandwagon bashing a horse like Verrazano, but I think he is good enough to overcome Pletcher.

I don't care if Verrazano wins the TB Derby or not, as long as he runs well, he should remain my top pick at this juncture for the KY Derby.  Flashback is a nice horse too, but it is hard to tell how good these horses are because with the new point system put into place by Churchill Downs, trainers no longer have to develop a horse.

With the new points system, Churchill Downs has done more than self-serve itself at the demise of the industry, but they have also catered to the Pletchers and Bafferts of the training world who do not really develop horses, but rather just train them to run as fast as they can for as long as they can.

05 Mar 2013 10:57 AM
JayJay

PBP : LOL with your ping pong comments, signs of a frustrated man.  I'm really sorry for your users, they really have no clue how much you're taking their money away for nothing but hey, it's their money.

KY VET : Did you hold back on Flashback ?  Didn't you bet over a 1K on Creative Cause last year ?  and El Padrino ?

05 Mar 2013 11:09 AM
Pedigree Ann

Dream on about all of your maiden and n1x winners. Don't forget the horse who just keeps coming, Den's Legacy. More accomplished than Delhomme or Palace Malice or even Verrazano at this point.

05 Mar 2013 11:32 AM
Rusty Weisner

Fugue for Tinhorns,

"High-level intellectual discussion" comes more naturally to most of us than picking winners.

Congrats on the Gotham.  I'll pay closer attention next time to one of your Paul Reveres.

05 Mar 2013 11:43 AM
Pedigree Ann

Forbidden Apple;

Game on Dude has run well at tracks other than those in So Cal. Don't you remember his BC Classic at Churchill in 2011? He beat East Coast hot shots like To Honor and Serve, Havre de Grace, Flat Out, Uncle Mo and Stay Thirsty. Yes, Drosselmeyer came roaring down the outside, where GoD couldn't see him, to win. But GoD proved he belonged with top level horses.

In the BC in '12, he steadied at the start which was aggravated by his new jock throttling him down. Good strategy for some horses, bad for the Dude, who wants to be forwardly-placed. Jock has been replaced.

Oh, and GoD finished a close-up 4th to Drosselmeyer in the 2010 Belmont, after he had won the Texas Derby.

GoD doesn't need to come east to run in a bunch of over-graded 9f races. If the East Coast horses can stay at home until the Big Race, just like GoD did in '11, why can't he?

05 Mar 2013 11:49 AM
Forbidden Apple

Coldfacts,

At this point I don't consider Flashback a fast horse. He is robust and powerful, he also appears to be full of class.

Pedigree Ann,

Den's Legacy is a sparring partner for Flashback.

The 2011 Breeders cup Classic was run in 2:04.27, very weak. To Honor and Serve was a miler and the rest are far from killers. Drosselmeyer inhaled that field with ease and then nothing from him either. Clubhouse Ride, Nonios, Richard's Kid, come on. Simply look back at the horses that ran second and third when Game On Dude wins a race.

05 Mar 2013 12:36 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Rusty -

Commentary and opinions gain credibility with the support of winning posts. Excuses for losing wagers cost one any credibility they may have.

Perhaps in lieu of the 'note to self' you posted on SH's blog regarding 'not wagering on NY preps', perhaps a better lesson learned would be to not invest in races in which you've bounced around between four horses, including one that you did not even like, but included out of fear.

Good luck.

05 Mar 2013 1:33 PM
Rusty Weisner

Plod Boy Phil,

Good point.

But, in the spirit of the blog, I at least make picks!  None of this shady-sounding "we" making after-the-fact "downgrades" and "upgrades".

05 Mar 2013 2:36 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Rusty -

When I post an upgrade here, that means it's a horse I'll be betting. Just like on the site, where the free upgrades posted there are returning $2.68 thus far this year through 75 runners listed. Take the time to go through every horse I've mentioned since I first came here on Nov 2nd and you'll see similar results. The win ROI does not even reflect the 1x1 Daily Double given out here on the Rebel card. The four upgrades I've put on the Live Blog the last two Friday's )two each week) have resulted in one $16.80 winner and place horses at 6-1 and a brutal nose beat at 9-1.  

05 Mar 2013 2:57 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Rusty -

Do yourself a favor and visit our site, specifically the U/A page.  Free plays I've posted there in 2013 have an ROI of $2.68 through 75 runners.  If you take the small amount of time necessary to objectively review every horse I even mentioned in passing on this Blog,  you'll find similar results from just 12 winners.  Of course,  that does not include the 1x1 DD I posted here on the Southwest card that returned 28-1. The four horses I've given out in my only two visits to the Live Blog have resulted in one $16.80 winner and two runner-ups at 6-1 (nose) and 9-1 (nose).

Part of improving at this game is abandoning losing practices and accepting the fact that others out there may actually have better tools.  

Take a look - so much good information for free.

05 Mar 2013 3:04 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Regret the double post.  

05 Mar 2013 3:06 PM
Plod Boy Phil

To clarify Rusty,  the upgrade of Vyjack and the downgrade of GWH is an analysis of the Gotham race.  Thus,  we recommend wagering on Vyjack in his next race and advise players to discard GWH when next seen.  

05 Mar 2013 3:09 PM
THE KEYMASTER

Plop -

I would be happy to protest your record on this blog since November.  Please post your record and I would be happy to point out any discrepancies.

05 Mar 2013 4:17 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Keymaster -

I did that once already. Somehow, it was removed, yet your biased and untruthful rebuttle remained.  Perhaps you are the monitor ?

Nov 3-Mar 3: 13-72, ROI =$2.53.

Eliminating all upgrades listed by number only without a my standard write up raises the ROI substantially.

Bold upgrades, actaually just 5-11 (Gabriel Charles was not listed as bold) have an ROI of $6.45.

Your previous rebuttle mentioned 8 winning downgrades. Please provide those with corresponding win pay-offs.

While we're at it, nice pre-race analysis of the Big Cap along with the expected post race whining.

05 Mar 2013 5:04 PM
Plod Boy Phil

correction:  13-72, ROI = $2.27

05 Mar 2013 5:06 PM
Plod Boy Phil

The ROI does not include Orb who had been the only horse on my Derby list for two weeks prior to the FOY.

It does include an undetailed P4 at SA on 2/17 that was listed by number of runners in each leg only. That sequence went 1-8.

Point being, when I post a horse with a detailed write-up, bettors take notice,  here, on the Live Blog and on my site.

05 Mar 2013 5:27 PM
Little Bill

Rusty, I just thought it was an pompous thing to say. In the spirit of good fun I'll try to post a Paul Revere every wk for Sat..

About WHG- If I remember right he was coming in 2nd off layoff. I watched the 6f sprint stakes to see how hard they rode him. Very little, shoulder taps. It was in every sense of the word, a prep, a work in co.. There is method to my madness. Bred well, good trainer, price was right.

05 Mar 2013 5:32 PM
Coldfacts

Fugue for Tinhorns

“Rusty, I just thought it was an pompous thing to say. In the spirit of good fun I'll try to post a Paul Revere every wk for Sat..”

Referenced quote:

“This Board is intended for high level intellectual discussion between TRUE thoroughbred enthusiasts. Those who wish to share their vast knowledge and passion are appreciated. You clearly have not met the criteria.”

Since I was the one that posted the above quote I am taking this opportunity to set the records straight.

Firstly, I do not consider myself amongst the contributors that participate in intellectual exchanges and consequently the adjective pompous is inapplicable.

Secondly, the party to whom the quote was directed has a history disrespect, rudeness and a total lack off regards for the views of others. His policy is not one that embraces ‘the spirit of good fun.’  

At your leisure kindly revisit his litany of posts and it will be overwhelmingly clear why the quote was directed to him.

I am a student of humility and firmly believe that the pathway though which rudeness and unkindness travels has no starting point as it not a pathway of necessity but one of choice.

05 Mar 2013 6:10 PM
ROBBIEJOE25

And here the whole time i thought a trainers job, was to train a horse to run as fast as he can for as far as can.

.........WOW ........ Learn something new everyday.

05 Mar 2013 6:18 PM
Plod Boy Phil

No Zen for VET

05 Mar 2013 6:20 PM
KY VET

How does coldcuts type with that straight jacket on?

05 Mar 2013 8:49 PM
KY VET

Someone please tell COLDCUTS something.........he talks about tapit, like it is bad breeding......but lists 4 derby contenders by tapit.........IS THIS NOT STUPID? What a year for that sire........of course we all with brains can see this......if none wins the derby? Who cares? those are all good horses......He thinks he is making a point....and uses idiotic examples....

05 Mar 2013 8:55 PM
Mary Zinke

Coldfacts, The gelding we like has been doing very nicely in his training for the San Felipe, including two 7 furlong works. I'm not sure if you already mentioned those.

I think I saw something about a downgrade for one or both of Hear The Ghost's races, but I would only want to know the reason for that if the information is free, Phil.

His trainers generally do not ask much of their maidens in their first races or in their works prior to their first start, although the chart for his first race, a win, does mention that he rallied under urging. In his second start, the San Pedro, he closed 4 lengths in the stretch, but couldn't catch the speedball Distintiv Passion.

I wish him well(which will include a scream if he's coming on in the stretch) in his graded stakes test, going against Goldencents and Flashback.

Oh there's KY, back from a stray to post a wee bit of meanness at the nice blog ;)

05 Mar 2013 9:10 PM
Mary Zinke

Oh, because you like Normandy Invasion, KY?  I'll have to think about his chances and get back to you. You must be confident in his ability to close at a longer distance, so don't worry so much about that future wager. Did you get good odds on him?

05 Mar 2013 9:20 PM
Mary Zinke

And your other future wager is a front-running Tapit? GL. I only risk $10.    

05 Mar 2013 9:22 PM
KY VET

mary...im not mean.........and you have a good eye for horses.....hear the ghost is a nice one........watch the remsen...youll see only 1 horse move on turn....both speed horses ran good.....normandy has a big move...he moved too big and hung because of that......he is very green...watch remsen,,,climbing early..checked on 1st turn....same in risen star....perfect prep.........and funny...you call flaskback a front runner........julian wasnt sure he would win 1st out because he wanted longer....flashback came from 4th or 5th.......he had lead last time because 4 horse field...he just won.....this horse hasnt tried yet....looks like a big baby.....think hes 5 or 6 l better than he has showed....we will see huh?  

05 Mar 2013 9:37 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Mary-

re: Hear the Ghost

HtG's MSW win was achieved with a Closer favoring Flow. Note that next out winner from that debut, Let Em Shine, was an upgrade for being the pace setter of the race.

HtG's closing second place finish behind bold upgrade winner Distictiv Passion was recorded on a Severely Closer Biased surface.

All the points made about his breeding and chances of improving over longer distances are reasonable and legitimate. If such factors were important enough to me to discount his two races on record, I would back pedal. They are not, so I will not. When the race is over,  win or lose, I'll add the effort to his resume and adjust his 'grade' as warranted.

05 Mar 2013 9:39 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Mary -

Since I've often been criticized for not watching races (untrue,  take a look at the San Pedro again. 'DP' was geared way down in the final 100 yards, making the closing kick of HtG look better than it was.  I watch plenty of races more than once.  I am just not swayed by the things I see, or think I see, when doing my job.

05 Mar 2013 9:58 PM
JayJay

If RF users are truly winning that much and getting richer with all these downgrades/upgrades, where are they?  How come they're not here posting their thank yous ?  So far, all of this "success" of RF is coming from you, who's trying to market the product in a free blog.   Let me guess, RF has a blog but you charge a fee for people to see it lol.  The fact is, just because you posted a downgrade or an upgrade, doesn't mean your users bet them, unless you take their money and bet it for them.

Mary : Who did you risk your $10 on ?

05 Mar 2013 10:23 PM
Coldfacts

Between 2005 and 2008 Tapit bred 537 mares.  I did not research the number of resulting  live foals from these four crops.  The resulting foal crops would have been able to participate in the 2009 to 2012 Derbies.  How many Derby representatives does he have to date?  He has only one Derby representative i.e., Hansen.

Since Tapit entered the breeding shed the smallest number of mares he has bred is 104. In 2009 he bred 170 mares and this was 4 less than he bred in 2007. He has the most horses nominated to the 2013 Triple Crown from his 2010 foal crop.

From 4 crops that have raced up to 2012, he has been represented by one unplaced Derby starter. He therefor does not have a stellar record with Derby starter.

Nowhere in my post did infer that Tapit was not good stallion. I consider him to be an overbred stallion that has a poor record with Derby starters.

I cannot be held responsible for the inability of those that do not understand plain English.

05 Mar 2013 10:40 PM
KY VET

Jay jay.......again.....we get it....dont join his site.....you criticze....but dont do anything but guess.....save your money to paint your trailor.....1 can should do...

05 Mar 2013 10:51 PM
KY VET

mary.....11 4/5 htg final furlong......about as fast as they can come home...........some optical illusion! maybe he blinked...

05 Mar 2013 10:56 PM
KY VET

Mary....the unusual thing about htg, was the jock was asking him for everything.....and the horse , after a couple furlongs, hit another gear..........dont see that too often......

05 Mar 2013 10:58 PM
Plod Boy Phil

JayJay-

Such testomony would prove as much as posting tickets on fb without a valid chain of custody seal - absolutely nothing.

I do not know how every customer uses the information provided. Such knowledge would be very beneficial, but we do not insert ourselves into their individual handicapping and wagering process unless it is requested.

You do your thing and I'll do mine.  My thing is posting quantifiable handicapping information and live upgrades (or downgrades) that have so far produce profitable results.

Best of racing luck.

05 Mar 2013 11:01 PM
Plod Boy Phil

VET-

I think you may be embellishing a bit regarding that final 1/8....12 flat to 12.10 is probably more accurate.  

05 Mar 2013 11:22 PM
JayJay

KY VET :  My "guess"dicapping is proving to be doing much better than yours lol.  I don't spend the whole day posting here losing bets.  I bet small to win big.  You bet big and you lose big or win small.   You post everything and anything but really not much that anyone doesn't already know.   Like I said before, you're one of those guys that screams the loudest when a 4-5 wins like he was the only one that knew lol.  When you start hitting big payouts, then I'll consider you a handicapper.  Remember, favorites means people already picked the horse, it's finding the longshots and playing them at the right time that makes one a good handicapper, whether it's guessing or not, it's how much one takes home...not picking winners the way you do, favorite or 2nd favorite.  A newbie can do that just as easily.

Oh and yeah, we get it, you don't like Coldfacts, get over it.  He provides more information that's good reading than you ever will.  Now open some windows and get some fresh air.  Better yet, get out of the house and bet at the track, I guarantee you, no one will miss your bet posting on this blog.  In fact, they'll thank you for it.

05 Mar 2013 11:42 PM
KY VET

plod....6 lengths back at 1/8th....came home 12 and 4........if it is 12 flat, you dont know thats rare? Your point was other horse eased up....12 flat is flying...period

06 Mar 2013 12:01 AM
KY VET

JAY JAY's new website.............................LOTTO UPGRADES.com.......

06 Mar 2013 12:04 AM
JayJay

Yes, and I charge a lot LESS for bigger payouts! :)  I checked that URL and it doesn't exist so I might actually buy that name.

Anyone looking at Nick Zito's horse in the Tampa bay, Eton Blue ?  Not familiar with this horse but I'll check him out before this weekend.    Also, Java's War running in the TBD for his first start of the year, connections must think highly of the horse to run him against Dynamic Sky who I think will win the TBD, not saying he'll make a mince meat of the field, but I think he'll win easily.  Hopefully I'm right and get a good price on him.

06 Mar 2013 12:28 AM
Plod Boy Phil

VET-

If it's so rare, then why no respect for Vyjack who finished up a final 5/16th in 30 seconds ? (that equates to 2.5 twelve second eighths).

I encourage you to bet HtG.  In fact,  bet an extra $100 so you can earn many more smack points if he wins.

Good luck.

06 Mar 2013 12:32 AM
Mary Zinke

Yes, I see what you mean about Flashback's first race, at Hollywood park, KY.  So, you don't think he'll be attempting to wire in the San Felipe?  I never said that you are mean. I said you were being a bit mean. I think you get a small, at least, kick out of getting a rise out of people.You know those other blogs are usually nice stories that should many times come with a warning to have Kleenex handy. Not trying to go anywhere with that, though.

I like Goldencents, too. I shouldn't have gone off of him in the Delta Jackpot. I mistakenly thought of him as a sprinter, only. Back on him for the Sham, and he'll be tough for me to pick against in this race. I'm always happy for Hear The Ghost's barn's success, so besides liking the gelding's chances, thinking the race could set up for him, that's where the scream comes in.  If there's a new blog about the 3 yo points races, I'll have picks, and short reasons for them, as with the other stakes.

Thank you, Phil for the explanation. I,too, will re-watch the San Pedro stakes, looking for the gearing down of the winner.

Jay Jay, that small wager was on Verrazano. Just a for fun bet, since I still don't have a Derby favorite, and this colt because I sometimes forget to respect the speed.    

06 Mar 2013 12:53 AM
THE KEYMASTER

Plop -

In reviewing your bold upgrades, I show 5 winners: Swagger Jack ($17), Exeter Road ($18), Stanwyck ($7.80), Persuasive Paul ($10.40), and I will give you credit for Distinctiv Passion ($8.20) who you said to carry the bold upgrade.  I count only 5.  What am I missing please?

I also show that 5 downgrades have won: Belvin ($4.80), English Puddin ($22.40), Merit Man ($4.40), Dynamic Sky ($3.20), and Capo Bastone ($5.00)

CORRECTION: The number of downgrades that have won is 5, not 8 as noted in previous post.  My apologies Phil.

My analysis of the Big Cap was not that far off.  I just played the wrong longshot in Stephanoatsee rather than Clubhouse Ride.  I said that you could not leave Dude out of the top spot and I would use him with Stephanoatsee on top of Called to Serve and Ron the Greek.  3 out of 4 is not bad, and I only played a few dollars on the race as it was a very poor betting proposition with lone speed at a short price.

Would you please point out where I was whining post race?  I retorted to someone's post about Baffert haters.  Even you Phil, could have trained Dude to win the Big Cap.  I wasn't whining about the result, just saying that Baffert and Dude are not really that good.  

06 Mar 2013 1:01 AM
THE KEYMASTER

Also, I am definitely not the moderator as I would have sent you and your flow down the toilet long ago.

06 Mar 2013 1:07 AM
THE KEYMASTER

Robbie-

Your thoughts about training horses would be a part of a good explanation of why many horses can't go 10f anymore without breaking down...  Modern training along with breeding and drugs.

06 Mar 2013 1:17 AM
Mary Zinke

Dude is that good. If one thinks he's that good in Southern California only, okay. Not sure how to really argue that since he primarily races there the last couple of years, and he loves Santa Anita. Needs the lead? He has a decent win percentage with the style that works for him. I think he'll be tough if he makes it to this year's BCC. Only thing is, Mike Smith also rides a certain mare.

06 Mar 2013 1:17 AM
Little Bill

Coldfacts

Thanks for clearing that up. After I posted I realized the configuration of the post could make it confusing. I am aware of the direction and intent of your post. I just think it's a little bold for anyone, except the mediator, to declare the intent of the board.

06 Mar 2013 1:22 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Keymaster-

I only said 5 bold upgrades winners. Gabriel Charles was bold for subscribers but was not listed as bold here.  He was the first horse I ever posted here.

As for English Puddin, listed as a DG winner,  you'll need to direct to the track and date of his win,  as well as my post of him being a DG.  HE won his last race in SoCal on Nov 2nd, the first day I ever posted anything on this blog.

On that notes,  how many have I downgraded.  You'll go broke very quickly betting our downgraded runners going off as the post time favorite.

Look forward to your response.

06 Mar 2013 1:24 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Keymaster-

Perhaps istead of whining, I should have written 'bitter for no reason except for a being bitter'.

06 Mar 2013 1:26 AM
THE KEYMASTER

Neither Baffert or Pletcher have ever won the BCC.  I guess training a horse to run as fast as they can for as long as they can doesn't develop them very well.

Dude isn't a bad horse, I just don't think he is the same if eyeballed by another quality horse.

06 Mar 2013 1:27 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Somehow in all the 'great analysis' of the big Cap, you and the other expert left off the one horse that had shown he could chase SoCal's best dirt route horse and not fold.  Not impressed with anyone using the top 3 betting favorites and not cashing.

06 Mar 2013 1:30 AM
JayJay

Mary : Yeah, good luck with him.  I can't like really say much about him until I see him run outside of GP.  He could very well win but I don't know.  Last year, I was really high on a Pletcher horse for the TBD named Spring Hill Farm.  He won two races easily at GP prior and looks to be much the best against the field...and then, they ran the race...lol.  I threw my tickets away at the top of the stretch.  If the Kentucky Derby gets moved to Gulfstream Park, I'll probably sell the house and bet it all on him in the KDFW Pool 3.

06 Mar 2013 1:31 AM
Plod Boy Phil

correction:  Dec 2nd was EPs last win in SoCal

06 Mar 2013 1:34 AM
THE KEYMASTER

Plop-

The following was in your 12/31/12 post at 11:05 AM:

Today's DGs:

AQ - 1)2, 5)8

SA - 3)2, 3)5, 4)8, 5)2, 6)9, 7)1, 8)6, 8)12

BoRL

English Puddin was the #9 horse that won the 6th race at SA on December 31, 2012.  As you noted in your 12/31/12 post at 11:05 AM, the #9 horse in the 6th race at SA was a DG.

In regards to the Big Cap, I was commenting on the race as it was the race featured in the blog.  I did not come on here touting any bold predictions.  I was wrong about Stephanoatsee running a good race and that was it.  It was obvious that Dude was the horse to beat and Ron was up against it.  I used the wrong longshot to include with Dude in the top two slots.  Nobody is correct 100% of the time.

06 Mar 2013 1:49 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Keymaster-

English Puddin was absolutely not DGed here or anywhere else for that matter prior to his Dec 2 Mc win. Did he go to GG or TuP for the race that followed the Mc win?

Please clarify,  or retract.

Thanks.

06 Mar 2013 1:53 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Keymaster-

You are correct. I have a typo in my spreadsheet,  thus his win on 12/31 did not show up when I did a scan.

So, 5 winning DGs from a number of DGs you choose not to provide return $39.80,  while 5 winning bold upgrades from 11 listed return $61.40.

Thanks and good luck.

06 Mar 2013 2:01 AM
THE KEYMASTER

Phil -

The race in question was subsequent to Dec. 2nd as it was on Dec. 31st, not prior to Dec. 2nd.

All you have to do is go to equibase and type in "English Puddin" and it will give you the race results and charts for all his races.  ENGLISH PUDDIN (#9)WON THE 6TH RACE AT SANTA ANITA ON DECEMBER 31, 2012.  

As you posted on DECEMBER 31, 2012 at 11:05 AM, the #9 in the 6th race at SA was a DG.

I'm not going to waste anymore time trying to explain this.  As you say, it is there to be seen.  Your 12/31/12 post at 11:05 AM is still there to be seen and so is the chart for the 6th race at SA on 12/31/12 which English Puddin won as a DG.

06 Mar 2013 2:11 AM
JayJay

Bold Upgrades :

Me and my imaginary friend are going all in on Falling Sky in the Sam Davis, we really believe he's the horse to beat, most likely will wire the field.

Orb is a standout in the FOY, GUARANTEED!

NO ONE posted anything about Clubhouse Ride on this blog, but we knew he would come in 2nd, seriously, we did!  We're the best you know.

Wait for our best upgrade yet for the upcoming San Felipe race, we will analyze the race on monday and post it here (for free!).  We promise we will not disappoint!  So far, we're two for two, I have a feeling we'll be 3 for 3 on monday with a little luck.  Oh crap, I think I jinx'd us, we don't believe in luck!

If that's not impressive... I don't know what is!  Come on, someone reply to this post and tell me how impressive I am, please ?

06 Mar 2013 2:12 AM
THE KEYMASTER

Phil -

Sorry I was writing a reply as you posted your correction.

We are all in agreement.

I do value some of what you have to say, and I know I am wrong most of the time.  That is the nature of the game.  You just rubbed me the wrong way during our fist exchange, but I do not hold grudges.

06 Mar 2013 2:13 AM
THE KEYMASTER

Phil -

Sorry I was writing a reply as you posted your correction.

We are all in agreement.

I do value some of what you have to say, and I know I am wrong most of the time.  That is the nature of the game.  You just rubbed me the wrong way during our fist exchange, but I do not hold grudges.

06 Mar 2013 2:13 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Keymaster -

From the post you provided,  8 downgrades that day alone produced one $22.40 winner. There are a number of posts in which I made similar lists.  Quite obviously, all the DGs I have put out here have resulted in a significant flat bet loss.  All upgrades posted here have resulted in a flat bet profit.

This is exactly nature of what we do. Month after month, year after year, upgrades significantly out perform downgrades, with each having comparable average odds.

I appreciate the marketing assistance you've provided.

06 Mar 2013 2:15 AM
THE KEYMASTER

*First exchange, not fist.

Anyway, what is in the past is in the past.  I will look forward to cordial exchanges in the future.

Good night and good luck.

06 Mar 2013 2:19 AM
THE KEYMASTER

Darn Phil, I thought we had made some progress.  Why do you have to come on here to try to stroke yourself?  Just give your opinions before the race with reasoning.  Don't come on here and talk about things that occur in flowland after the fact.  Nobody cares.

06 Mar 2013 2:22 AM
Plod Boy Phil

JayJay -

Why are you back at me ?  I offered a truce for the sake of all concerned.

Orb was posted as my only horse both here and on SH's Blog.  I subsequently added Treasury Bill off his MSW win. Each was promptly removed when losing their respective Grades despite solid races. I also did not list Orb in my ROI here. In fact, I was overly generous in counting 'upgrades' in assessing the performance.

My current Derby list is now made up of Code West and Vyjack.  The former was added following hios fourth straight upgraded effort in the Risen Star and the latter was added following his win in the Gotham.

If we have an upgrade in the SF,  I will gladly post in here lng before the race. HtG will definately be a DG.

I did not make any claim to Clubhouse Ride,  but rather,  was pointing out how self proclaimed expert,  the host,  went searching for value and failed to land anywhere near the horse that ran a strong second to Dude in his prior race.  The horse had just run a big figure (if you like that sort of thing) from the exact same spot he figured to be in in the Big Cap.

The bottom line is,  you simply do not understand the basic concept of handicapping horses using the PPs,  or the notion that the information contained inside those same PPs that is not 'visible' to everyone can provide handicappers with an edge.  

Good luck JayJay.

06 Mar 2013 2:27 AM
THE KEYMASTER

Also, your ROI for bold upgrades you previously noted is grossly off.

06 Mar 2013 2:29 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Keymaster -

oYu were the one that wrote of sending me and the Flow to the toilet.  All would have fine of not for that unecessary nonsense. As I've posted before.  I respond to injustice,  regardless of it's form.

Your eagerness to discredit me proved an empty threat, as I knew it would.

Good luck in all you wagering endevours.  

06 Mar 2013 2:35 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Keymaster -

As for the Bold Upgrade ROI, I've only been able to locate a total of 9 listed, not 11.  (Losers: Blue Creek, Sweeter Turn, Leave It to Bern, Retrieve)

Revised Bold ROI = $6.82

06 Mar 2013 2:48 AM
THE KEYMASTER

Phil -

Maybe in your own mind you were not discredited but the fact of the matter is that you have had as many downgrades win as bold upgrades.

Also, the ROI you proclaim on bold upgrades is way off... try $2.79 not $6.45 as you falsely proclaimed. ($61.40 / $22 = $2.79).  Your downgrades of 12.31.12 produced an ROI of $2.80. (#22.40 / $16 = $2.80).  If you cannot even do simple math, how can we trust your handicapping methods which are based upon quantitative information?

06 Mar 2013 2:58 AM
THE KEYMASTER

Plop,

YOU ARE LYING AGAIN.

You are leaving out the bold upgrade losers of Admiral Perry and Sciaparelli.  It is there for everyone to see.

Revised Bold ROI = $2.79

Downgrade ROI of 12.31.12 = $2.80

I'm though wasting my time and really going to bed this time.  You are hopeless.  How are we supposed to trust your methodology when you can't even keep accurate records regarding your own information?

06 Mar 2013 3:06 AM
THE KEYMASTER

Oops, sorry Plop I'm really tired and screwed up my math above.

Bold upgrades ROI = $5.58 for $2 bet

Downgrade ROI of 12.31.12 = $2.80 for $2 bet

I apologies for the discrepancy, I expect you will do the same regarding your figures for bold upgrades.

06 Mar 2013 3:15 AM
THE KEYMASTER

I calculated your bold ROI as $1 bets but then calculated the downgrade ROI as a $2 bet.  It is way past my bedtime.

06 Mar 2013 3:16 AM
Coldfacts

Fugue for Tinhorns,

I am in agreement that the standards for participation should be dictated by the moderator and I was in no way attempting to assume this role. However, I do not consider it presumptuous to assume that the moderator expects supposedly mature individual to exercise civility in their exchanges irrespective of the of the various levels  intelligence.  

06 Mar 2013 9:06 AM
ROBBIEJOE25

Keymaster, the only thing i can take away from your response is your not a Baffert or Pletcher fan, which is fine by me. Just have one question for ya. If baffert and pletcher are so bad at what they do, then how come the richest owners seem to stick with them?

06 Mar 2013 9:54 AM
Forbidden Apple

Anyone that thinks Flashback is a speed horse is sadly mistaken. He will stalk the pace on saturday and then take over at the top of the stretch.

When are you guys going to agree to disagree? I thought this blog was about unlocking winners, not unlocking anger.

06 Mar 2013 9:58 AM
KY VET

Update...........Union rags Still hasnt run a beyer over 100..........but has earned a blue ribbon at the westminster dog show.............

06 Mar 2013 10:34 AM
KY VET

Coldcuts.....the stride genius.....the guy who said The FACTOR has a perfect stride to go long distances..........surprised no comment on FLASHBACK's stride.......high head, legs high.......come on.....i know ya want to..........

06 Mar 2013 10:41 AM
THE KEYMASTER

RobbieJoe-

Unfortunately you do not have to be smart or care about horses to own them, and that is why people have horses with Pletcher and Baffert.

Most of the owners that have their horses with Pletcher or Baffert only care about trying to win juvenile and sophomore races, so they can get a return on their investments as soon as they can.  I would classify most of the owners that have horses with Pletcher or Baffert as arrogant, greedy, and selfish.  The other owners that have horses with Pletcher and Baffert are just ignorant.

06 Mar 2013 10:47 AM
THE KEYMASTER

Forbidden Apple -

I will agree with you that Flashback is not purely a speed horse and that he can rate.  Didn't he show that ability in his debut?

My two current picks for the Kentucky Derby have a total of 0 points thus far... Verrazano and Flashback.  Ironically, they are trained by Pletcher and Baffert respectively, whom I bashed in previous post.

I cannot argue that Pletcher and Baffert have not had great success with juveniles and sophomores, as their statistics indicate this.

If you drug them and drill them enough, they will run fast and stay sound for a little while.

I would be a fool not to wager on their some of their horses as long as the game is played the way it currently is.

06 Mar 2013 10:53 AM
1:08 and change

Vet:

You're killing me, man.  Is Tiznow's booger still on display at Kentucky Horse Park?

06 Mar 2013 10:56 AM
Forbidden Apple

The Keymaster,

In Flashback's first race he did rate a bit behind wicked fractions on synthetic. The Lewis was a completely different race being on dirt, a four horse field and a super slow pace that he set. The six furlong split was 10 lengths slower in the Lewis. Just because he was on the lead in a slow paced race, this does not make him a speed horse like some have stated. Yes he runs with his head high, so what? I can't wait to see the explosion when he is finally asked to run! His workouts are second to none, with his recent move going 6F in 1:11.

Coldfacts,

Why wait until after the San Felipe to call Flashback a serious horse? Part of watching horse racing for me is to spot talent and bet on the horse before he becomes a huge favorite. If he wins the San Felip in style, the entire blog will jump on his wagon.

I agree with you about Incognito, he needs a longer race. They have been very patient with this horse, one of the luxuries of training for an owner with an endless supply of money. There is something about this horse that caught my eye last year when he was training at Greentree in Saratoga Springs. He was always cool and calm, he would often appear to mediate in his stall.

06 Mar 2013 11:32 AM
Coldfacts

Forbidden Apple,

Below are the fractions for the first three quarters recorded in the last races for four of the colt that Flashback will be matching strides against.

Hear The Ghost Star 21.55, :43.61, and 1:08.50 (2nd)

Omega Star23.12, :46.39, and 1:10.88 (2nd)

Goldencents 23.00, :46.31, and 1:10.06.(1st)

Tiz a Minister- 23.12, :46.39, and 1:10.88. (1St)

In Flashback’s last race the fractions were 24, 48, and 1:12. It is unlikely that those fractions will be recorded on Saturday. Which of the above colts can he out run stalking the above fractions?

With the exception of Goldencents the rest are serious closers. Assuming there will be some cheap speed by other entrants, Flashback and Goldencents will be the two to make their moves first. Fkashback is not as fast as Goldencents and he will be all in to stay with him. This is going to cause his demise as he does not have the smoothest of action and the closers will benefit greatly from this.

The colt that intrigues me is Hear The Ghost Star. In his last race he was ridden from a long way out to keep pace with 21, 43 fractions and ran on to be none a threatening 2nd beaten 1L in 1:08.50. That was his second start and first on dirt.

While I believe Goldencents will win, I expect Hear The Ghost, Omega Star and Tiz a Minister to occupy the remaining slots on the board.

06 Mar 2013 11:36 AM
Forbidden Apple

I'm not sure why you are so against Flashback. You are predicting Flashback to run 5th or worse, okay. Check back with me after the race and we will see who is right. There will be no matching strides, I believe the rest are running for place money.

06 Mar 2013 11:52 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Keymaster-

You are correct re: Admiral Perry and Sciaperelli - clearly fatigue after 15 hours looking at these monitors took a toll. I always knew there were 11,  yet could not find them last night. Unlike you, I do not have records of all my posts- thanks.

Your revised ROI on my bolds is correct. The one day downgrade ROI is totally useless. Doing so for all DGs provided here will drop the number well below the 'Mendoza line'.

Please post 11 of your top plays over any time period you desire that comes close to matching my results.

Onward to the weekend.

Good luck

06 Mar 2013 11:55 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Forbidden Apple-

All I can say in our defense,  is at least we chose to have the unpleasant exchange during the off hours,  especially for those of us on ET.

I'd much rather discuss or share handicapping ideas and opinions. I certainly have plenty of those.

Thanks.

06 Mar 2013 12:01 PM
Forbidden Apple

I am guessing that you missed Flashback's maiden victory. They went 22 45 1:10 and then he roared past the field. So what is your point about the splits you listed? Flashback recently worked 6f in 1:11, I think he is razor sharp.

06 Mar 2013 12:05 PM
Plod Boy Phil

1:08 -

Are you who I think you are?

06 Mar 2013 12:05 PM
Forbidden Apple

Plod Boy Phil,

I understand, in this sport one has to be opinionated. I found myself responding in a negative way towards KY Vet. He brings out the worst in people, like Draynay last year. It just seems like a lot of wasted energy. Like right now Coldfacts is against Flashback for no reason at all, except for he is mostly likely going to be the favorite in the San Felipe. I'll wait a few more days and let Flashback and his class speak for me.

06 Mar 2013 12:18 PM
Coldfacts

Forbidden Apple,

"There will be no matching strides; I believe the rest are running for place money."

Emotions should  be driven by cold facts!

Narrow the field to Goldencents and Flashback. Which of the two colts has the better resume?

Goldencents shipped to NY to take on S/Bobby the eventual Champion 2YO in the G1 Champagne off a 5 1/2F MSW win. It has been his only defeated to date. I am sure even an ardent fan of Flashback can appreciate the enormity of the task he undertook.

Have you forgotten the results of the meetings between the Ill Have Another and The Bodster?

Until proven otherwise Flashback is average.

06 Mar 2013 12:22 PM
Coldfacts

Forbidden Apple,

Why assume I forgot Flashback's MSW victory?

The data used came from their last races as clearly indicated in my post.

It was the preferred data as they were all running against winners and not a bunch of overmatched maidens

06 Mar 2013 12:28 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Forbidden-

Concur regarding some that bring out the worst in us - clearly a reflection of my own character flaws.

At least with disagreements on individual horses, the results on the track often give one or the other 'bragging rights', for lack of a better term.

I've yet to see the PPs for the SF - too many races between now and then that I must consider,  though I look forward to seeing the Felipe field tomorrow night.

06 Mar 2013 12:33 PM
THE KEYMASTER

Plop -

You just contradicted what you said before.  You said that everything is there to be seen, and now you are saying that you do not keep records of your posts.  I looked at everything that was there to be seen and saw that you were full of it, just like I knew you were.

The point is that you come on here giving out all this staistical data that I proved to be false.  How can we trust what you say about your record when you do not keep accurate records yourself?

Unlike you, I don't go on a blog looking for accolades from people that I don't know to make myself feel better about some lousy one-dimensional handicapping tool.

At any rate, challenge accepted.

Do I get credit from my selection from our first exchange on 12-1-12 where you approached me to say that Nikki's Sandcastle would be favored over King David and some other horse was the pick?

As I predicted, King David was the favorite and Nikki's Sandcastle won.

Ever since you approached me with that garbage opinion I knew you were just another tool in the box.

That would put me at 1 for 1 with an ROI of $6.80.  Looks like I'm in the lead with 10 more picks to go. I trust that I can use 4+ months to find my selections, which is the same amount of time you used to scour your flush-o-meter for selections.

06 Mar 2013 12:39 PM
Forbidden Apple

Coldfacts,

What is the point of having an exchange of ideas with you? You claim every comment to be fact and are always right in your own mind. Why can't you for a brief moment just accept that others have brains and ideas too? Flashback has already proven that he can rate and that he can run past speed horses, accept it. You reference a race when Goldencents was a 2 year old, who cares.

06 Mar 2013 12:41 PM
Coldfacts

Forbidden Apple,

“‘Coldfacts is against Flashback for no reason at all”

I am absolutely not against the colt. It appears my poor writing skills are on display again.

Flashback and Verrazano were being considered as wonder horses in a recent ESPN piece. You have dismissed the achievement of Goldencents and by your own statement have specified that he is running for a minor place in the SF.

Goldencents has the best resume in CA and until Flashback takes him down it is unwise shower him with unearned accolades.

The colt has not impressed me the way he has impressed you. This does not equate to being against him. A big performance in his next race will hand you bragging rights and others a plate of crow.  

Time is the master!

06 Mar 2013 12:47 PM
ROBBIEJOE25

Forbidden, could it be that the FACT man is against the big grey because his arch enemy on here bet 3 million on the him in the derby futures pool 2?

06 Mar 2013 12:52 PM
1:08 and change

PLOD:

Exactly

06 Mar 2013 12:53 PM
Forbidden Apple

No, he was against Flashback even before pool 2. Bragging rights do not put any money in my pocket. I love horses and horse racing, but this blog is about handicapping and making money for me.

06 Mar 2013 1:04 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Keymaster-

Sure,  take Nikki - but you also get Attractive Ride and Tippy Tapit, also posted on 12/1. If you want an example of your usual post race whining,  Attractive Ride is a classic example.

That's 1-3.  

Good luck.

06 Mar 2013 1:13 PM
KY VET

108 and change......yes! it has actually GROWN in popularity.....a new movie in the works.......FLICKA 3

06 Mar 2013 2:10 PM
THE KEYMASTER

Plop -

There you go again twisting things around to try to slant thing is your favor.

If you would kindly indicate where is said I was using Attrative Ride or Tippy Tapit on top, then I will gladly include them.

If I were to include every horse you ever mentioned, there would be over 70+ horses, with only a few winners.  Do you really want me to do that to you?  I was being nice by only including any horses where you mentioned "bold" in the description.

Also, I could find several examples where you have "whined" post race and even more examples where you tried to take credit for selections after the race had even run.

Your 12-1-12 post to me was the first exchange we ever had, and you went out of your way to tell me that I was wrong.  However, the results indicated I was right.

If you want me to keep embarrassing you by refuting your claims and giving decent race analysis beyond what pace figures tell you, I will be happy to oblige.

06 Mar 2013 2:21 PM
KY VET

plod.....i get the flow thing.....but look at the remsen....both pace horses ran great, pace wasnt that fast....look at the move of normandy.......the best, biggest move of any derby contender in any race.....wouldnt that be an upgrade? he moved too quick to keep going, which made him hang.....the horse is a push button horse...in his mdn race, he broke at the back, then flew up to fight for lead after a furlong.....green horse, trouble in both last 2........this horse has big move................remsen no upgrade? and why not....

06 Mar 2013 2:21 PM
THE KEYMASTER

Plop -

It is evident that you must have an inferiority complex by the way you lie and twist things around while seeking approval from others.

I do not think I'm alone with these thoughts, as I'm certainly not the only one one this blog to have questioned your integrity.

06 Mar 2013 2:34 PM
1:08 and change

I love the entire lumping together of Baffert and Pletcher throughout these blogs.  Seriously?  How many Triple Crown races has Pletcher won or even had a horse place in? Who was a combination of less than a length away from training two Triple Crown winners?  Ridiculous.  Bash Bobby B all you want.  Jealousy will get you nowhere.

06 Mar 2013 2:37 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Keymaster-

- #5 Attractive Ride looks like an attractive wager at 7/2 to go gate to wire in the 2nd at FG.

THE KEYMASTER 01 Dec 2012 2:14 PM

_________________________

-Interesting pedigree plays in the 6th at Tam with #6 Tippy Tapit, who is half to G1 winner Lion Tamer currently 16-1.  Also  #5  Gigahertz out of very good turf mare Megahertz is 3-1 co-favorite

THE KEYMASTER 01 Dec 2012 2:59 PM

_________________________

I actually missed the loss on Gigahertz - make it 1-4.

Should I post the after race comment on Attractive Ride.  If you'd like, I'l give you Dude at $4.60.

As of for all upgrades I've listed here, see last night's initial response to your willingness to check my results. I acknowledged 13-72,  with an ROI of $2.27. I also pointed out that it did not include Orb in the FOY,  though that opinion was well documented, and it did include a completely unnamed 2x3x1x3 (one scratch) sequence listed on 2/17 that went 1-8.

Do what you want,  but all insults regarding our methodology are unwarranted and do nothing but confirm you to be the bitter man you are knwon to be.

Good luck.

06 Mar 2013 2:43 PM
Plod Boy Phil

VET-

No,  the Remsen was as 'normal' as it can be.  Nothing about the fractions and the interaction of those fractions as it relates to final time made the race unusual.  All runners received 'neutral' grades for that race.  Same can be said of the KCJ.  Note that those two races have produced a number of failed, yet highly regarded runners,  each taking a lot of money for no good reason.  All were 'just horses',  thus none were given a second thought by Flow purists.

06 Mar 2013 2:47 PM
THE KEYMASTER

Thanks for reposting that Plop!

It proves what I already said.  I don't see where I said anything "bold" or where I was using any of thoses horses on top.

I was just pointing out that Attractive Ride looked like he could be lone speed, which I admit I was wrong about.  However, I never indicated that he was a "bold" upgrade or where I was using him on top.

Also, by pointing out the interesting pedigrees of horses does not mean I was wagering on those horses.

I COULD DISPUTE YOUR OVERALL RECORD AND ROI TO PROVE THAT YOU ARE INCORRECT JUST LIKE I DID FOR YOUR BOLD UPGRADES.  However, really don't care to waste my time when all the losing upgrades are still there for everyone to see.

Go ahead and keep lying and twisting things around if that is what you need to do to make yourself feel better, although I think it is awfully sad that is the case.

06 Mar 2013 3:11 PM
THE KEYMASTER

Plop -

If you are going to include all horses that I have mentioned in this blog, it would only be fair to credit me with my victories with Fort Larned in the Whitney ($16.40) and BCC ($20.80).

06 Mar 2013 3:14 PM
THE KEYMASTER

Plop -

Also need to include Pure Fun ($14.40) on that list.  That already gives me a total of $63.20 and I probably haven't even mentioned more than 11 horses in total on the blog, which would put my ROI above your Bold ROI.

06 Mar 2013 3:20 PM
Plod Boy Phil

All the screaming in the world will not make your baseless insults legitimate or accurate.

You could not carry my pen.

Good luck,  bitter one.

06 Mar 2013 3:20 PM
1:08 and change

Who's the breeding guru?  How many mares did Empire Maker cover yearly when he was still in the USA?... So Bodemeister getting inched out twice in TC races must have been related to that, right?  Gotta be the only explanation.  And Royal Delta definitely looks to be suffering from the too many covers epidemic.

06 Mar 2013 3:24 PM
Plod Boy Phil

As for Fort Larned,  the Woodward was before my time here and Fort Larned was one of three mentioned in the BCC.  Take the BCC win on 3 plays.  You are now 2-7,  with $27.40 in mutual payouts. That leaves you four plays to get $34 out to tie.

Good Luck.

06 Mar 2013 3:25 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Keymaster-

Take Pure Fun.  Now 3-8 with $41.80 out.  Three to get 19.60.

If you keep searching for old news,  maybe you can come up with a few more.

Good luck.

06 Mar 2013 3:35 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Keymaster-

Since we are apparently listing all your picks,  I'm compelled to give you Dude in the Big Cap.  Make it 4-9 with $46.40 out.  Two plays remain to get back $15.

Good luck.

06 Mar 2013 3:38 PM
THE KEYMASTER

Plop -

You are just like a child who makes up the rules as they go along because they cannot win on the square.  Very, very, very sad indeed.

I hope you get medicated or whatever you need to overcome your inferiority complex.

06 Mar 2013 3:40 PM
Forbidden Apple

The Keymaster,

Did you have the Fort Larned/Ron the Greek Whitney exacta? That was a fun day for me, cashing a win ticket and the exacta! I had a win ticket on Fort Larned in the B.C.C. and a D.D. with Wise Dan, but no exacta with Mucho Macho Man. Is Pure Fun ever going to race this year?

06 Mar 2013 3:45 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Keymaster-

Need I remind you that you were the one that decided Nikki was your only play that counted.

06 Mar 2013 3:52 PM
KY VET

Coldcuts had cheesebiscut in the nyc 34th running of the rodents...........

06 Mar 2013 4:13 PM
KY VET

.......of course that was because cheesbiscuts daddy covered only 12,567 females that year!

06 Mar 2013 4:15 PM
Plod Boy Phil

FG Race 7

3 Madris

06 Mar 2013 4:52 PM
Plod Boy Phil

FG 73 Madris:

Brutal beat,  that !

06 Mar 2013 5:06 PM
THE KEYMASTER

Forbidden Apple -

As noted in my August post, I had liked Flat Out a little better for the place spot, so I leaned heavier on him, and RtG beat him by a head.  I did have a cheap exacta and tri, but would have done much better had Flat Out got second, as he was the longer price too.  However, my win bet on Fort Larned was substantial enough that when he kicked free at the top of the stretch it was all icing on the cake after that.

I did not have the Mile/BCC double because I liked both favorites in the Mile.  However, I did have the BCC exacta with MMM.  As noted in my October post, I was using Fort Larned on top but I also found Mucho Macho Man intriguing.

It looks like Pure Fun is back on the tab and working well with 3 decent works with 6 day intervals.

I imagine the "For Sale" sign has been on Pure Fun, unless something has been amiss.  I imagine McPeek at least sold some interest in her.  It will be interesting to see if her registred ownership changes for her next start, but any additional partners that bought into the filly is something that McPeek could keep under the veil of Magdalena Racing.

06 Mar 2013 5:20 PM
Mary Zinke

Madris,$24.60 to place. Nice, Phil.

06 Mar 2013 5:25 PM
1:08 and change

PLOD:  Wow...awful.  Looked like me on the freeway at rush hour looking for a lane.  

06 Mar 2013 5:30 PM
THE KEYMASTER

Phil my man, I'm over all this.

You can say whatever you want.  I'm content with myself and have nothing to prove.  My record on the blog is there for all to see.

I have provided some very good analysis of some top quality races while respecting the horse as an animal and not reducing them to quantitive measurements by means of a flush-o-meter.  

You can keep betting on your pace figures, and I will bet on the horse.

06 Mar 2013 5:32 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Works for me Keymaster.

Be well - thanks

Good luck.

06 Mar 2013 5:34 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Thanks Mary - place money helped,  but....

1:08 - was pretty confident I was a winner at the half mile pole.  Hard game,  this.

06 Mar 2013 5:35 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Keymaster -

I'm going to take the higher road and ignore yet another reference from you to toilets.

Regards.

06 Mar 2013 5:45 PM
JayJay

PBP : Here's my problem with you, you come on here with your high and mighty attitude, commenting on people's opinions, most are not even directed at you and then...you start telling them how they're wrong because they use some type of handicapping that doesn't use your formula.  There's nothing, NOTHING special with RacingFlow, I don't care what you say.  When your win/loss ratio hit a percentage that is higher than most other tools out there, then I'll consider it to be better but until then, it's just like anything out there.  It doesn't make you a better handicapper.  My ROI is something you'll never ever achieve, you call it lotto handicapping and that's fine with me, but bottom line, I made more money in my last winning ticket than your formula will in the next year.  Does that make me an expert handicapper, no, not even close.   Unlike you, I understand this game, I know it's a game of luck, and then some educated guess.  That's it.  It can't be quantified, you can't use statistics to beat it.  Here's the simple reason for that...we are betting horses with humans on their back, not machines.  There is NO WAY in hell we can anticipate what they'll do.   So my or anyone elses "handicapping" is as good (and as bad) as anyone's out there.  You can't come in here and start "educating" people with your "flow", beyer figs are more accepted in the racing industry and that's why Mr. Beyer is rich.  Do I believe in Beyers ?  NO and it's well documented in Jason's blog how I feel about the beyer figs.

I'll continue to "be on you", just like I know you won't be able to keep yourself from telling people they're wrong for not using your product.  I'm familiar with people like you, you like to drown people with information, so much so that they end up just nodding their heads because they can't keep up with the information you feed them, they get lost in it and once they're lost, you can pretty much tell them anything.  I've been to your site and checked your Updates and Analysis page, and I can't imagine a regular player would spend time reading all that.  You have quick zip, zip win, vs zip, vs quick zip, zippity quick, chick did a flip, ahhhhhhhh and a bunch of others...

Just "unlock a winner"... you don't have to question anyone's picks because they don't use your formula.  They're not betting your money.  

There's no need for a "truce", i'm not mad or angry or have any ill feelings towards you.  I comment on your posts just like you comment on mine and everyone elses.  

I just want you to understand ONE thing.  The only authority in handicapping here is KY VET, we tolerate him and we all make him feel like he's the best handicapper otherwise he'll start using CAPS again and no one wants to see that.  Go against his picks at your own peril...  check out his website http://SNOOZE_I_LOSE.com

06 Mar 2013 6:33 PM
Mary Zinke

I'm marking this down to see if it all recurs in 28 days.

06 Mar 2013 6:55 PM
Footlick

Let's hope it does not, Mary Z.  But, I get your drift.....

06 Mar 2013 7:08 PM
KY VET

Its enough to make GHANDI puke...........let it go.......

06 Mar 2013 7:34 PM
Mary Zinke

It's like someone said KY was a quintuplet, lol.

06 Mar 2013 8:02 PM
Mary Zinke

Hi footy. I just imagine them wrestling.

06 Mar 2013 8:04 PM
KY VET

Falling sky showed a very bad sign in his last race.....problems!! Dynamic sky showed bad sign also.....the sky's are falling!

06 Mar 2013 8:05 PM
Mary Zinke

P.S. Finite with the near-record.

06 Mar 2013 8:06 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

San Felipe three dollar straight superfecta:

1st- Hear the Ghost

2nd- Omega Star

3rd- Flashback

4th- Goldencents

06 Mar 2013 8:10 PM
Footlick

Hi Mary Z.!  

06 Mar 2013 8:26 PM
Footlick

KY VET- it is enough to make Freyja give up gold.  

06 Mar 2013 8:29 PM
KY VET

It's like charlie sheen giving advice to lindsay lohan......

06 Mar 2013 8:50 PM
KY VET

Its enough to make pete's horse whisperer SHOUT!

06 Mar 2013 8:51 PM
Mary Zinke

Not give up gold, footy, but is Touch Gold a clue?

06 Mar 2013 8:59 PM
Plod Boy Phil

returning with a symbol clash Footlick....well done

06 Mar 2013 9:14 PM
JayJay

KY VET : You don't think Dynamic Sky will run well ?  I agree with Falling Sky, he'll probably be toasted by Verrazano but I think he'll place higher than Verrazano.  Who's going to wake up in that race ?

Tri box with Carving, Flashback and Goldencents in the San Felipe.  I'll throw in Dr. D's Omega Star in my .50 super.  Sup Dr D!

06 Mar 2013 9:17 PM
Footlick

Mary Z- Touch would be the operative word, but the dwarves drove a hard bargain.

06 Mar 2013 9:26 PM
KY VET

I'll tell you....the san felipe has some promising horses, that could go either way......watching them on video.....i know what a good horse looks like, and omega star looks awesome........and the move by tiz a minister looked too good to be true....thinking it was the weird track, hopefully......these horses worry me..................come on flash!

06 Mar 2013 9:28 PM
Plod Boy Phil

cymbal rather

06 Mar 2013 9:28 PM
KY VET

btw...omega star and tiz a minister both cal. breds! wow!

06 Mar 2013 9:50 PM
KY VET

i'm not saying either of the sky horses will run bad....just saying that they might have a problem......usually they might go off form this race, sometimes 2.....i wouldnt bet on either....but they are not bad on paper....knowing horses, some can run with problems....sometimes its a minor thing...........like a horse can limp with a broken leg, or a safety pin in foot.....1 is major, 1 minor.......we will see....still cant understand how tiz a minister did that move last race.........mine that bird move.......

06 Mar 2013 9:56 PM
Forbidden Apple

KY Vet,

You have said that a 104 beyer is too fast for Itsmyluckyday and a 93 beyer is too slow for Vyjack. So what is your idea of an ideal beyer in Feb./Mar.? Or are you just mad because you lost money on Shanghai Bobby, Violence, and Overanalyze?

06 Mar 2013 10:36 PM
Mary Zinke

Coldfacts, Was Touch Gold over-bred in 2003?

06 Mar 2013 10:37 PM
Forbidden Apple

Ranagulzion,

I found the perfect horse for you to play. Race 5 on saturday at the Big A, In Todd We Trust. A $470,000 Tiznow colt that was claimed from Pletcher for $35,000 last out. Good luck.

06 Mar 2013 10:44 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

JayJay

   My feeling is that Verrazano is going to be too tough so I'll probably stay out but this is who I like in order of preference at Tampa- Verrazano, Java's War, Honorable Dillon. I forgot about the CAPS, now if you can just get him to spit out what he wants to say instead of ..... Confusing at times. Probably some kind of secret morse code or something that only top handicappers understand. Good luck on the weekend.

06 Mar 2013 10:50 PM
Footlick

lots of dwarves...........

06 Mar 2013 10:58 PM
KY VET

apple.....itsmyluckyday will show you what i know.......wait until im wrong....

06 Mar 2013 11:07 PM
KY VET

an economy pack of COLDCUTS.....

06 Mar 2013 11:08 PM
KY VET

Congrats to jay jay.....hes been invited to go with rodman, to north korea......they need a calm negotiator type, a positive "people" person, to help bring peace.....

06 Mar 2013 11:13 PM
Forbidden Apple

What do you know? Are you his new trainer?

06 Mar 2013 11:21 PM
Plod Boy Phil

VET -

I think in the case of Forbidden, you should just make a legit point about your take on speed figures, foundation and the concept of 'too much too soon' in young horses.

You won't be giving away any great secrets.  I could be wrong.

I'll have some opionions to offer in both preps this weekend,  but there are many good opportunites between now and then.

06 Mar 2013 11:25 PM
JayJay

Dr. D : I seriously LOL'd at that " ..... "  morse code, that's classic lol.  I'm not yet sold on Verrazano and if he does go off at 1-2 like some people are predicting, I'll be happier, I think Dynamic Sky has the homefield advantage, if he's good enough.  I guess I'll wait to see how the odds are playing at race time.    I don't feel the Kentucky Derby winner will be coming from Tampa Bay preps but who knows.  Good luck this weekend as well.

07 Mar 2013 12:02 AM
Coldfacts

1:08 and change,

“Who's the breeding guru?”

If you are attempting to be funny you should at least know the right questions to ask to have an effective punch line.

A Breeding Guru is one that is versed in the various crosses that are likely to produce the best results for stallions and mares. The number of mare bred is a not a related issue.

“How many mares did Empire Maker cover yearly when he was still in the USA?”

Again you are so anxious to score points that you fail to ask the correct questions. The data I provided focusses on mares bred and not mares covered. I assume you know the difference. Empire Maker bred 726 during his time in the US.

“And Royal Delta definitely looks to be suffering from the too many covers epidemic.”

I highlighted a Derby trend. How is Royal Delta relevant to this issue?

If you are going to make a fool of yourself, the KY VET has excess capacity to accommodate you.

NB: Flower Alley bred < 70 mares in 2008 while Empire Maker bred 151.

Which stallion sired the Derby and Preakness winner?  

07 Mar 2013 12:10 AM
Mike Relva

Alot of you are going to be suprised when Baffert and Pletcher doesn't win on May 4. lol

07 Mar 2013 9:40 AM
1:08 and change

Keep the Baffert bashing going... because one race makes a trainer.  

Coldcuts,

You're right.  There must be some relevance to your theory.  Just look at how many mares Wilt Chamberlain covered over the years.  I still don't remember him having any offspring that made it to the NBA.  Oh wait, mares bred sorry.  

I apologize to all females on the blog for the mare metaphor.

07 Mar 2013 1:21 PM
KY VET

The breeding guru.....likes flower ally better than empire maker.....that says it all......

07 Mar 2013 5:20 PM
Mike Relva

1:08 and change

Sorry not everyone thinks Baffert is the only trainer out there.

08 Mar 2013 1:02 AM
Coldfacts

The colt Flower alley sired sent the colt Empire Marker sired into early retirement.

08 Mar 2013 1:34 AM
Coldfacts

1:08 and change,

Your lack of understanding is overwhelming a denoted by your response.

A derby trend is not a theory.

08 Mar 2013 1:36 AM
1:08 and change

Coldcuts:

And your sample size for a trend is laughable.

08 Mar 2013 11:52 AM
1:08 and change

Mike,

The guy has 9 wins and multiple placings in Triple Crown races.  I do not think he is the only trainer out there.  It's the lack of respect shown to the guy when it's clear he has dominated all others.

08 Mar 2013 12:03 PM
Coldfacts

1:08 and change,

A trend has a starting point and there are no rules.

08 Mar 2013 12:40 PM
Mike Relva

1:08 and change

Really? I don't like the fact how many horses he's ruined. Could care less about his wins.

08 Mar 2013 1:49 PM

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