The 2006 Champion 2YO Street Sense holds the Stakes Record for the TB Derby. Verrazano will break this record as he is better than the colt hat won the BCJ by the biggest margin.

Verrazano is a January foal that should have a maturity advantage over other colts with April and May foaling dates. He will be meeting the undefeated Purple Egg who is a May foal.

Does anyone remember the outcome of the Derby that featured the over hype January colt Dunkirk and May gelding Mine That  Bird?

I do not recall ever reading a report of a colt trying to kill the lead pony and dislodging its rider.

Purple Egg appears to be a mean individual who can now channel all his energy resources into racing since he is now a gelding.

Verrazano better beware as Purple Egg is big and fast and has already been cited for assaulting a harmless pony. While it was reported that he was gelded, the report did not specify that he attended anger management sessions.

First, I just read something very positive about the San Felipe. Win: Hear The Ghost.

Place: Goldencents. Show: Flashback.

Tampa Bay Derby:

W-Verrazano. Why? Respecting the speed.

P-Dynamic Sky, S-Honorable Dillon, 4th-Purple Egg.

Purple Egg's dam was a turf winner who placed in a 12f nongraded stakes at Hollywood Park. Her female line was very sprint-y until HER dam's cross of Majestic Light, and then Prized (who sired a G1 winner at 2 miles in New Zealand) finished the deal. Her best foals so far have been from sprinter/miler sort of stallions; I would expect Purple Egg can handle a mile plus, and possibly even farther. But he's behind right now because of missed training.

Papillon, you out there?

I'd like to have a talk about the way 2yos are raced these days. I have been making noises elsewhere about how running 2yos around two turns in August and September is bad for their joints. Back when I was a newby and horses raced every two weeks or so, all the major 2yo stakes were one-turn until late October; the Breeders' Futurity, Ky Jockey Club S and Remsen S were all one-turn. And winners of the two-turn, big money Garden State S had a very spotty record in the classics at 3 - the last 2 years of its running (Riva Ridge and Secreatriat won it) were an anomaly, as in 18 previous runnings, its only winner to win a Triple Crown race was Carry Back.

Pingback from  Purple Egg and the Tampa Bay Derby | rollinghillsracing

Pedigree Ann,

The fact that Purple Egg is a May foal, It is likely that his time off contributed to more development and this could negate the effects of missed training.

He should be bigger and stronger and with his temperament strength could be an asset.

The Tampa bay derby will be an afternoon stroll for Verazzano. Its an anticlimax ...the race is on for place and show.

Good luck to everyone trying to beat this rising star.

I tend to like horses their next out after they've fought to place a way-back second.  Eton Blue is slow, but keeps trying and maybe wants more distance.  For what it's worth, the horse he beat for 2nd came back to win, and they were 15 lengths ahead of the others.  I'll try this longshot to hit the board.  

I'll put Verrazano on top in $2 keyed trifectas over Honorable Dillon, Dynamic Sky and Eton Blue:

6/1,3,5 = $12

1 place, show = $8

This is a pretty salty group, I can't just hand the race to Zano. I'll use him in boxes and try to beat him with Park City. H Dillon also deserves respect.

Rusty, Horse named Reveres Ride in the 5th at Tampa. Kinda funny, huh? I have to put 2 across on him.

3/9/13, Tampa Bay Downs, R-10, Tampa Bay Derby:

#6-Verrazano- too much for most of these

#2-Purple Egg-he's good and ready now

#3-Honorable Dillon- best of rest

#5-Dynamic Sky- likes the track and gets new rider

If Verrazano takes to this track, its all over, will try exacta straight with the Egg, maybe.

Excited about a couple future book horses this wkend.

Close Hatches at Tampa. Have her to win at 25-1 for 20.00. Have exactas with her and Calistoga, Emollient, Private Ensign, and Sister Ginger. Sister Ginger, 80-1,is in the Honey Bee at OP.

Fugue for Tinhorns,

I hope everyone appreciates your handle.

No guts no glory.

I'm thinkik' Goldencents will be tough to beat this weekend, and I don't think they'll be back in 5th, early...be nice to see in Kentucky, but if you wanna win at 'Anita in a Gr I, you better lay close, and Goldy has the look of a horse who would be better at a middle distance, anywho.....I'm look in' for that electric move around the far turn, where he pulls away from'em, and puts it away, like a Snow Chief move, real nice, (maybe not Snow Chief nice), I guess what I'm saying is I think Goldencwnt/ is a real nice horse, and I think he'll sho me something this week---perhaps,he'll show me I was wrong, it's about as wide open as I can remember, is there anything like Spring in the Sport Of Kings?

Ranagulzion,

Why do you always choose to disrespect other horses with your over the top predictions.

Uncle Mo headed to the Wood with similar wonder horse status as Verrazano and he lost.

Races are not run on paper and Mr. Pletcher stars have not been shining brightly. If not for Revolutionary he would be 5 and 0.

if Verrazano wins he will not decimate the field.

Early thoughts on the San Felipe:

Flashback - I don't like him even a little bit.

Hear the Ghost - the obvious downgrade.  

Mary Z:  I hope you'll at least share the secret info on HtG after the race, win or lose.

Mary Zinke,

I will have wager on Hear The Ghost as he has been begging for  to turn race.

The 21, 44 & 1:08 fractions to which he was exposed in his last race will not be duplicated in the SF.

It's a horse race and those who are deciding it on paper do so at their own peril

Phil,

What are Flashback's weaknesses?

I like Goldenense myself.

Secretariat-

His debut win came with a closer favoring Flow deserving of DGing. His follow up win at 1 to 2 in the RBL also deserves modest DGing as he was a length clear at the first call in a race that came back Speed favoring. Let's see this gfavorite do something in a race that does not set up quite as nicely - "monster" or not.

Coldfacts -

Maybe you'll be able to put one in the 'win' column when wagering on my DGed runners. Interesting though,  how a guy that frequently lists race splits to support opinions, you are talking down at those of us that use an analysis of the PPs to formulate opinions.

Perhaps the 'downgrade exacta box' is in order.

Coldfacts-

Just to clarify,  I know you were not insulting me at all,  so my use of the phase 'talking down' was not the best option.

The fact is, sprinters that make closing runs under advantageous conditions are eagerly bet against in Flowville when stretching out.

re: HtG

I would prefer that the second of HtGs two downgrades been Flow driven, rather than Bias driven.  While there were 6 dirt races for us to evaluate on 1/21, Flow driven figures are more reliable than their Bias driven counterparts.

No hedge, just details.

I must be missing something  I understand everybody's fascination with Verazzano but to not even consider Falling Sky in our conversations regarding the TB Derby? I don't get it. I won't bore anyone with the multiple reasons that should be obvious All I know is I need a horse to make a $20 show bet on for the Road to the Derby Challenge and I'm more then happy to put it on a M/L10-1 shot who I feel has a chance to win.

San Felipe: Flashback vs. Goldencents. Why is Flashback giving 3lbs. to the more accomplished Goldencents?...

There's plenty of speed lined-up for this,so I'm pretty sure Baffert wants Leparoux to settle in behind the leaders breaking from the 2-hole. Let Salutos Amigos and Kochees(blinkers) fry each other,then get the jump on Goldencents turning for home. Flashback has too much raw ability for these.. single.

I like the battle-hardened Dynamic Sky in the TB Derby for a couple of reasons:

1) has 2 good races over the track.

2) is proven @ 2-turns.

3) gets Joel Rosario to time his late burst.

4) proven class,3-1 or better.

I'll key him on top w/Falling Sky,Purple Egg,Verrazano underneath.

Private Terms: Mr. Palmer heads to Laurel where he'll meet an ordinary field of 3yo's after breaking his maiden going 9f last out. The son of Pulpit looks like a stand-out on paper,let's see if he handles the strip.

Razorback: I like San Pablo in here. He broke slow in his seasonal debut,rushed-up to the leaders then opened-up and was caught from behind. With a race over the track and 2nd time out,he should be tougher to handle this time around.

Plod Boy Phil,

"The fact is, sprinters that make closing runs under advantageous conditions are eagerly bet against in Flowville when stretching out."

This is a good rule of thumb...for another class of race. But at this point all these TC-nominated horses are "sprinters" -- they all start out in sprints before they step up to the longer tests their pedigrees suggest they're capable of.  I have "Hear the Ghost" in mind, who you dismissed above.  Who says he's a "sprinter"?

Phil, no secret. Hear The Ghost's short record and his two race replays are available to all. I like his chances, thinking the race could "set up" for him, and like Coldfacts said, Hear The Ghost should like stretching out. Some say it's a bad reason to pick a horse, but since it's not my only reason,a friend who cares for the gelding is very positive about him. Adding my own "no hedge, but",  Rain, rain, go away. I hate rain for my Cali babies.

I also like beautiful Goldencents very much. Mistakenly thought of him as a sprinter only, so I didn't have him to win in the Delta Jackpot.  

Mary-

Thanks - the part about a friend that cares for the horse is what I was looking for.  It's the objective opinion I was expecting.

Rusty -

Regarding HtG,  all I have to go on are his two sprints.  I'm fuly aware of the s-s-route angle popular among handicappers and trainers.  I like it too when I have the necessary Flow figure support to expect improvement on the stretch.  Sires, dams and Tomlinson's are not important enough to me to attempt to project improvement when my methodology says otherwise.

As I wrote above,  perhaps the SF is a great spot for Flow bashers to make the downgrade exacta box of Flash / Ghost.

Rusty -

Just one other comment,  no malice intended.

The statement 'at this point all TC -nominees are sprinters' is a bit inaccurate, no ?

I don't like to answer your questions, Phil. Do you understand why that is.  And I do try to be fair to you.

San Felipe -

Omega is the play.  Flashback will need to be the freak most think he is to win.  But at 4/5, no way.

Mary -

I did not mean anything by it,  though I had an inkling after I hit 'send' that you would respond the way you have. The comment was more of an overall opinion of information that comes from grooms, stable hands, owners and even trainers about their own horses. It's kind of like someone telling me that their nephew is an angel.  We love our own and are often incapable of seeing things objectively.

Remember folks, PBP does NOT like Flashback,"even a little bit".

Even after he "downgraded" his winning debut because it was closer favoring(quick splits) and then he goes out and wins the Lewis(4-horse field) on the front-end setting modest fractions(by default). Now,he's a "modest downgrade" this time in which he'll again have quick splits to sit-off of.

Seems wishy-washy to me,do you actually handicap races/horses?...

You duid not read my entire comment, not that it was so informative, Phil. At least you did not show comprehension of what I typed. I wouldn't bet $2 on a horse that I didn't also like on its own merits, just because anyone else liked the horse. Yes, connections, certainly those who put in the hard work with the horse, can be biased. The inklings and expected responses from me? Like we know each other?

Ok Mary.....

Carlos-

You love to point out the odds on winning downgrades....well done.  First it was Dynamic Sky at $3.40 and now it's Flashback at $3.00.

Please.  As close as your crawl behind these trainers, there's no room for a form.

Good luck.

Plod Boy Phil,

Exaggerating, but you get my point.  There has to a be a first time for every 2-yo or 3-yo on the TC trail to stretch out.  They're not doing it because the trainer's at wit's end.

Otherwise, yes, I like your general point.  It's a common fallacy that a little more distance will help a closer.  After all, Dialed In was the favorite a couple years ago.  

Now, since it's a friendly little blog, let us know how you'd bet the race.

Carlos-

What do Fiftyshadesofred, Sky Captain, Stephanoatsee, He's Had Enough, Majestic Hussar and Dreaming of Julia all have in common ?  I could add Violence to the list,  but as Forbidden Apple pointed out, he did run with a 'broken ankle'.  Finally, when will the weight actually 'get to' Game on Dude in the Big Cap?

Pick a winner already.

Ribot,

Falling Sky is fast (he beat Majestic Hussar in a sprint) and he wired the Sam Davis, but he was tiring there, and it will be faster both early and late in this race.  At 10-1 he's a good price (especially vs. Dynamic Sky).  I'm not taking him just because you can't take everything.  I'm hoping Verrazano demoralizes them all and the plodding longshot gets up for a piece.

Speaking of Game on Dude... a horse that gets regularly bashed on these blogs.  12/24 lifetime wiht 3.7M in earnings.  Can't win outside California, can't win without the lead, can't win at a mile and a quarter...blah blah blah.  He's a champion.

does anyone else wonder how hear the ghost is a flow downgrade, when that speed horse was alone on the lead, in a tiny field?  Such a lone speed, that the jock asked for everything on ghost 3 f from the finish......came home 11 4/5 and gets a dg because lone speed won.......i'm not picking the horse, but he ran good...........and flashback hasnt run that fast.....like zenyatta usually didnt run fast......he hasnt tried yet.....

pretty simple.......vyjack 93 beyer trying..........flashback 93/92 beyers not trying........its not rocket science........

Horrific spill in Haw 8th....jock may be in need of prayers

VET-

I've explained it quite clearly. At least I can provide an analysis behind chopped up phrases with no meaning.

Two downgrades have been issued on the Saturday Grades.  Both have been listed here.

Sometimes when horses actually have to compete for the first time,  they fail.  He's yours.

Good luck.

plod....youre a little flow crazy....how do you dg a horse for closing without trying....then downgrade a horse for winning without trying on the lead? The horse.....how good it is, should matter more....

VET-

Final time based speed figures are as far from rocket science as one can get.

You are not being rational in looking at the Gotham - Vyjak went the final 5/16ths in 30.05 and was never asked.

re: Flashback - Why would anyone bet a horse at a short price when it's had two ideal trips, regardless of whether the horse was 'trying' or not ?

Do you remember the line in 'Rounders' ?  "It's immoral to let a sucker keep his money"

Good Luck with that KDFW.

Slewzoom...........yes

Sometimes the trainer... even if biased just knows. My biggest lifetime score came in the breeders cup sprint. My next door neighbor was a groomer for cajun breeze. Trainer told him to bet big. He passed the info to me so i did as well. I was at trackside in louisville and the only in the place jumping up and down when he won at something like 25-1.

Sorry. Cajun beat. 2003

Kevin -

Not to discredit the trainer, the groom or you, I'm guessing that a large number of the other trainers in the race or on that day had similar opinions. Every angle and system has a winning example.

Good scores are always memorable- congrats.

Kevin-

Out of curiosity, did you ever get another 'push' from that groom on one of that same trainers' horses?

I'm not betting flashback or verrazzano.....

Phil,

Haha! It happens. I'll let others butter-you-up. As they say; People that live in glass houses...

Just calling you out on the lack of pertinent information you withhold from the lazy bettors that subscribe to your 'whateveryoucallit'. Ex: troubled trips and automatically downgrading/upgrading horses without knowing how their next race will likely shape-up.

BTW: Fiftyshadesofhay= 2nd best

Sky Captain= no show

Stephanoatsee= bled,eased.

Majestic Hussar= had him in the show spot,finished 4th.

Dreaming of Julia= victim of lone speed,2nd best.

HHE= I've had enough.

Game On Dude= was left alone on the lead,and did what good horses do.It happens.

As you were...

Who said, "people have opinions, horses have the facts"?

What opinions people have are somewhat based on the facts that the horses share with us, but also, in so many cases opinions are formed from opinions gathered from others.

To share a story about shared opinions, when I was just beginning to enjoy playing horses, a little over 40 years ago, a friend of mine was working at the track. The track was Golden Gates Field, and the job my friend held was parking valet for the VIP's of that track. VIP's in that he was parking the cars for the owners and trainers that populated that track. The reason I mention this, is partly because of the statements being blogged here, so as to add a touch of validity to that which some have to say. I soon became very succesful in my betting because I was getting tips from my friend that were being shared with him from those VIP's. I don't think when a trainer says something to the press or the like, he is saying the same thing to those he gets to know personally. That is why I don't put alot of faith in what I read that a trainer said. But, when I read that someone who knows someone connected to a horse, and that someone is sharing pertinent information about that horse in an upcoming race, well you better believe I take note.

The horse I am going to be playing this weekend is Hear the Ghost. I liked him before I read this blog, but I like him alot more now. Thankyou Mary, for sharing.

Carlos -

Lots of guessing.

Zero winners.

Carry on.

Isn't predict the same guy who thinks the game is fixed?  and STILL bets? You think baffert wants to cash a ticket?

I am a horse OWNER.....we are surprised all the time........people always think owners and trainers know.......

Carlos in Cali

   You're right, regardless of how the race turns out there is no way that Flashback should be giving three pounds to Goldencents. It's just plain weird. Equal weights for those two would make more sense. FB is a G2 winner, G-cents has two G3 wins and a G1 second. He could even be highweight, however with the points system I don't even think they should have weights for 3yo preps. I agree with whoever mentioned that before on one of these blogs. Neither FB or G-cents have shown to be so talented that I can't take a shot against both so I am with Hear the Ghost.

Phil- no i didnt get another tip from them. Im in the army and moved soon after.  Dont get me wrong i understand your point on inside tips.  It was the only time i bet in my life solely off anothers opinion. My money.....my opinion has been the mantra.  Insider tips and comments in this blog are all categorized as information to consider.  I will take mary's tip into mind when handicapping later. As i will any upgrades or downs you post.

Yes VET,  he is.

Kevin-

Good luck tomorrow

Limited update which you may have read, Phil:

www.paulickreport.com/.../jockey-brandon-meier-conscious-after-spill

Thanks Mary-

It never ceases to amaze me the stuff this riders survive, often incurring just minor injuries. It sure looked like he was stepped on more than once.

hope verrazzano loses....

Paul Revere pick: OP race 9 Najjaar

Never said the game was fixed, never said it wasn't fixed. Only implied that when there is money to be made and people are involved, there is always a possibility of corruption. I doubt that there aren't times that a race somewhere might be crooked, if you don't believe this is possible, good for you and your faith in your fellow man. For the record, I believe the majority of races are on the up and up, which is why I still choose to play horses.

I always enjoy reading Ky-vet's and PBP's comments, I keep an open mind to all possibilities- But tomorrow even though two excellent horses, in Flashback and Goldencents go up against an excellent field of horses, I believe the victor could be Hear the Ghost, because I think he is exceptional, among other exceptional horses. Besides, being from the SF Bay Area, I would love to see a local icon like Hollendorfer win the Kentucky Derby, I hope Hear the Ghost gives him that chance.

Tampa Bay Derby:

As I feared,  owner Van De Broak and trainer Pellegrini have chosen to take an overly optimistic path with Offlee Fast.  

Offlee Wild is  coming off back to back 'vs Zip' upgrades and will be carrying a few of my dollars.

If it were up to me,  O.F. would be pointed for an Alw1x on the turf,  but what do I know about training horses?

Fugue-

Najjaar may prove to be more of a 'William Dawes' than a 'Paul Revere', but here's to stepping out.

Good luck.

Tools dont help, unless you know how to use them...........this is where plod boy loses anyone with a brain.....he has upgrades and downgrades, but it doesnt matter where they are entered.....he still bets them.........this is just an idiotic practice........isnt it obvious to anyone with a brain, that it matters what your comp. is? This is why sane people, or jay jay......have a problem with him.....he has a list, then one will win, and he will imply he bet an 80 dollar winner............hey, nice endevour, doing what he does......im just saying, use the tool wisely, use handicapping method, of seeing if the horse is well placed...........but, he has stated he doesnt handicap. just uses method blindly..............Offlee wild is slower than a str. maiden at the major tracks..........period.........FLOW THAT!

Offlee Fast has no recorded workouts since his last race. Don't workouts reported at equibase go back 60 days? Any info as to how he's been training?

Yes offlee won one of the slowest str. mdn races at gp....on turf......here is a news flash.....the str. mdn. on the main tracks are much faster, better horses on avg.....MUCH better......not hard to figure out why.......the capo race was the turtle derby......time of the race was thursday.........plod is betting a horse that wouldnt win a par time mdn race, in a grade 2.......the horse might wake up with huge effort and lose by 8.........

VET-

No argument here about what his final time based speed figures indicate. He's too slow.  Why should that bother you? It's not your money.

Flow players can choose to use the horse or not.

Have you bet every free horse I've posted on our website this year?  If so, you are well ahead.  In fact,  a $100 win better is coasting along with an extra $2,550 in their pocket - all for free. The majority of those plays are from races at secondary tracks we cover,  not the prime horses on our weekend report.

I know how to use the the information we provide.  Others do as well.

One day, I'll be as good as you.  In the meantime,  I'll Flow, Flow, Flow my boat.

Why can't we all just get along?  Insert Rodney King voice.

My only bets for tomorrow are Miss Scout (#8 WPS in the 7th), Close Hatches (#3 to win in the 8th) and Superfecta in the Tampa Derby Verazano over Honorable Dillon over Purple Egg/Dynamic Sky/Park City

can't help on that front Mary - had he been working in between races since the impressive MSW win,  I'd be a little concerned.  Still hoping they come to their senses and scratch, so he doesn't run out of his skin and get nothing.

VET-

DI do have to give you credit for the 'time of the race was Thursday' line - funny stuff, that.

Kevin -

With you in the GP 7th - my post on the Capo Bastone Blog will provide the necessary details, not that you need them.

Good luck us.

Kevin -

My fault - 'assumed' you were referring to GP since that is the track I'm used to you betting.

Good luck us anyway.

The rest of you, please ignore the upgrade on Taken by the Storm at GP since I have clearly have no clue what I'm doing in this game.

Kevin-

I saw someone else that liked that Close Hatches horse - it may have been on SHs blog.  

Phil, that's what I do, step out.

I have Close Hatches in book two and wanted to play her tomorrow, last I read she might scratch and run Sunday at GP Oclaiming. Her ML is actually higher at GP.

Phil, yeah I decided to change it up a bit today and play Tampa.  Will be going back to Gulfstream for Sunday.  Will take a look at Taken by Storm though.    

Fugue-

Yes, I knew it was your opinion on Close Hatches, just didn't feel it was my place.

Definitely nothing negative intended by the Najjaar comment. It was offered to provide a piece of little know historical fact regarding that famous night in New England.

Good luck today.

PBH,

Like all, I am aware that pace makes the race.  I use fractions as comparison tool because internal fractions contribute significantly to the outcome of races. I am not hooked on them. I am more focuses on a horse’s action and speed distribution.

Hear The Ghost is not a sprinter and I understand why he would be a downgrade under your system. I would be more inclined to agree with a downgrade if he was contesting a race at a distance favorable to him.  He was under a ride from a long way out in his last to get into contention with a leader on the loose. He does not have great acceleration but maintains a strong gallop throughout the length of the stretch.

With his style he needs a strong pace upfront and a distance of ground. Will he win the SF? Like Flashback he has made only two starts so he lacks foundation. However, he does have as much talent as any in the field and upsets are always possible when young developing horses meet.

3/9/13, SA, R-7, San Felipe stakes

1-#5 Hear the Ghost, clearly best

2-#1 Carving, roll the dice baby

3-#3 Goldencents, looks tough

4-#2 Flashback, monster?

Rolling the dice on Carving today, a "Saturday" for Saturday, look out

Coldfacts-

Indeed.

Always prefer the short-priced DG to one at a price.

'Prefer' meaning I'd rather bet against short-priced Downgrades than the longer odds type, especially in young horses.

Pete,

I like your picks and I will add Java's War in with Puple Egg and Dynamic Sky. I have to include Verranzo in the box for the Tri but I think he is more vulnerable than Flashback today. This race is a giant killer. Favorites fall to their knees here more than most derby preps and Pletcher has owned 5 of the last 7 favorites to have their britches burned. The pace may very well be the undoing of many in here. I think it will be too fast and I look for those laying off of it to benefit. Really like Java's War even though has been  absent  and this is a tough spot to emerge but love McPeek and it doesn't hurt to have Willie in the saddle at TB.

I just heard the very end of an announcement on HRTV about I've Struck a Nerve being injured, but didn't hear the entire thing. Anyone know what happened?

Had a great time at night racing last night :

www.facebook.com/photo.php

I, too, will be using Hear The Ghost in my late pick three, as well as my exacta box (with Goldencents), I also like Dynamic Spy at Tampa

KY VET, how come you're not betting Flashback ?   The horse needs points to make the field.  He needs the SF and the SA Derby to make the dance, otherwise, you'll be tearing up your KDFW ticket sooner.

Mary : Good luck with HtG, I would play him  a lot except for the fact that he's been working at BHP, I would prefer to see those workouts at the SA track but you're pretty good with your picks so I wish you the best.  Don't kill me if I put some money on HtG as well come race time.  

SA :  .50 P4

06 : 2

07:  1

08:  7, 1, 6, 9

09:  1, 2, 7, 9

TBD :  .50 P4

09:  3, 4

10:  5

11:  5, 6, 1

12:  6, 7, 2

Horses I like today: Goldencents and Hear The Ghost...Dynamic Sky at Tampa....and at Santa Anita, Race 8 I love the #8 & #9, Birdlover and Flashy Ways, bad posts and all....Race #6 Lemon Drop Dream, if he goes off at 7-2 or higher I will play as well....

Thanks Jay Jay. I hope our tickets can say hi again. I like your 1 in SA r8. They had her daddy, too. Also like the 12,8 and 2. GL today.

Phil, your comment was taken in jest as intended.

On longshots, as you know, if they look like a winner on paper they wouldn't be a longshot.

I've Struck a Nerve is apparently off the Derby/Triple Crown Trail after an ankle injury this A.M.

www.drf.com/.../ive-struck-nerve-hurt-kentucky-derby-trail

I cannot leave out Kochees, who's connections race Jeranimo, another legendary Charachaua Chieftan, as I played him to win in his first start, and he was boxcars but looked the part of the winner throughout, he was impressive. Second race vs Super Ninety-Nine and Code West, and he gets play at 5-1, chases a fast pace, going wide, and he was gassed, but he kept coming---the more I think about it, the two faves are gonna go, and Goldencents will make Flashback work, and the closers look good, too---Kochees is being completely overlooked, but if the race plays out like I think it is going to go, then Kochees, the stalker, out of a tough 2nd start where he showed improvement (off a win), will get first run on them, then 20-1 will look pretty ok!

Matthew-

I figured it was a matter of time before someone mentioned one of the two useable horses in the SF. That said, I'm not sure your reasons are correct,  though nobody asks you 'why' when you go to cash.

The Jan 31st main at SA was severely Speed biased while the Flow of the race was neutral- the early fractions fit perfectly into the normal range as it pertains to the final time.  Since the race was deemed speed favoring, only the early leader, Appealing Tale,  who was more than a length clear at the 1st call, was in the ideal spot. This race was part of the reason for our subsequent upgrades on S99 and Code West.  Appealing Tale was the lone downgrade from the event.

May they fly early.

Taken by the Storm......

You all are too funny for me

Kudos where they are due.  Good call Phil on Taken by the Storm (5-1) in the 8th at GP.

Thanks Kevin - good times.

Matthew W,

I like Kochees to be a factor under winner, Flashback. Let hope he does better with the blinkers.

Plod..........jim jones's kool-aid was free too...........

plod....glad you got that one.....was wondering if people would get it.........lol

Congrats those that like Java's War - well done

VET-

Still laughing...thursday

Freebies 1 for 2 today ($6.60)

Make my Kool-Aid grape

Ribot-

Right on with Falling Sky.

Congrats to RED TESLA sa race 5.....setting record for lead changes in the stretch........................ugly!

Kochees stride UGLY!

nice pick plod!

plod.....is jj really posting pics of winning tickets? Thats embarrassing........

Fort larned lost by a really really long nose!

Mr Palmer aka coldcuts nice run might be waiting in weeds when the parade moves to baltimore.....

20-1(currently) on OMEGA STAR....im in!

VET-

The other 'up' in the SF is Omega Star.  A borderline Grade off a neutral failure last time when given bold status. I stretched the boundaries a bit since it's a feature race.

Who are you on here? I expect I'll see it time stamped before the race goes.

Good luck to all - even Flashback and HtG fans.

Probally going to regret not playin the ghost, but i rolled with flash, golden and tiz...goodluck to all

Congrats to Hear the Ghost.

All those that played the downgrade exact, nicely done.

Coldfacts, Mary Z, Predict, J2, and many more.

Congrates to all of thoses who had the ghost....The top 3 all ran good races

I mistakenly included j2 and forgot Rusty in the list of winners from the SF.

It's like the Daily Double.  You get a winner and I was wrong ( s I had an inkling I would be on this one).

Was it me,  or did it look like Leparoux did not ride through the wire?

it wasnt just you Phil as soon as they crossed the wire i said to myself rider change is coming....

Plod Boy Phil,

Wasn't just you. Leparoux seemed pretty content to coast in home once he had goldencents covered. Obviously, the prize is down the road. Still, the Ghost ran well and so did the Minister.

El K -

Ok,  just checking.  You know me...

Both ran well, yes.

Thanks as well Robbie

What did Fort Larned do the mile in? 1:29 flat?

Thanks to all of the Ghost lovers in here, I included him in my ($20) pick 3 ticket, when Goldy was backing out of it, and GoGo was charging up with the Cal bred, Corey had the horse! I caught the next two legs, but I probably only single Goldencents without the inside scoop!

Perfect prep for flash! very happy!......stupid ride...that guy is good but does alot of dumb things...........now gotta wait a month for normandy............flashback is a freakin monster in the making.....up the ladder he goes.....

VET-

It was a strong performance.

next one will be great....

They better teach him to relax!

How cool was that win by Hear The Ghost?

Thanks, Phil, for the congrats.

I'm glad some here cashed on Hear The Ghost, and I now have two Derby horses, and yes, I'm very happy for my friend.

Merry Christmas EVERYBODY!  sa race 8...teddys promise will go off form.....Shumoos!wp bbbbbbbbig!

Matthew W,

That was a nice call on Birdlover. I took a look at him after you called him out and saw all the trouble he had last out. He figured. I played him in tri's but did not have that 99-1 in there. I'm sure he helped out your horizontal tickets though. Congrats.

Here are some interesting quotes in the aftermath of the TB and SF:

"The Tampa bay derby will be an afternoon stroll for Verazzano. Its an anticlimax ...the race is on for place and show.

Good luck to everyone trying to beat this rising star." (Ranagulzion) So said so done.

"if Verrazano wins he will not decimate the field." (Coldfacts 08 Mar 2013 11:58 AM ) The field was whipped like the proverbial "rented mule" and ... whatever happened to your maurading, pony-biting Purple Egg? (LOL)

"I must be missing something  I understand everybody's fascination with Verazzano but to not even consider Falling Sky in our conversations regarding the TB Derby? I don't get it." (Ribot 8 March 2013 1:34pm) Do you get it now Ribot (LOL).

"I have to include Verranzo in the box for the Tri but I think he is more vulnerable than Flashback today. This race is a giant killer." (El Kabong 09 Mar 2013 12:27 PM) No giants died today but a few dwarfed handicappers bit the dust (LOL)

KY Vet,

Once again you chickened out in the Graded Stakes ...and you did not even hint at the upsetter in the San Felipe ...perhaps because ou didn't want to appear to be taking a tip from my good friend Coldfacts who was touting the "ghost" pretty strongly(LOL)

Matthew W : Thanks for Birdlover, had a $3 exacta, got my money back for the weekend lol.

Mary !    Hope you cashed big on HTG !  Glad you didn't listen to the naysayer.  Nice play !

Santa, I'll check out the Las Flores. No friend's filly in there, so there's your present or lump of coal, or the prettiest one, lol.

El Kabong : Hope you cashed in with Java's War, I mentioned in the other blog that the connections must think highly of this horse to run him in the TBD for his first race of the year and he didn't disappoint.  Nice play!

KY VET : Not as embarrassing as posting bets on every damn race in a blog and coming up empty lol.  You really haven't posted anything with substance, you're like PBP, always questioning, complaining about people's post but really not much posting that offers real information.   The two of you who's always claiming they know more than everyone and lives in this blog 24/7, neither of you have really posted any information that's worth anything.

How did you do today ??  That KDFW play on Flashback is not looking good... now he'll definitely have to win the SA Derby to make the Derby.  How's Flashback looking now ?  Is he a broken horse ?

Jay Jay,

Java's War has chosen a tough path, like Street Sense did. He has a good foundation like Uncaptured, so perhaps that is all he needs. His breeding combines speed and stamina, lots of stamina from the broodmare sire Rainbow Quest who was the leading broodmare sire in Ireland and England 2003 & 2004. He'll get better when he goes to 9F's and then 10F's for sure.

Ranag,

You missed the part about how I really liked Java's war, but then again, you never were one to grasp the whole picture. Hope you're keeping track of the points old boy, I think with one more good run Java will make the Derby! Hope he gets a good pace to run at because he will run all day.

Jay Jay,

How do you figure that Flashback has to WIN the S.A. Derby to make it in the KY Derby? He already has 30 points. I take it that you don't believe 50 will get it done.

Ranagulzion,

Do you recall my post below made on 07 Mar 2013 11:32 AM?

"Things did not work out well for Ore Pass in the Gotham as he finished 9th.  I know you like Revolutionary another War Pass colt and you have no doubt moved him up a spot after Overanalyze’s sub-par performance.

There is another War Pass colt that will be in operation on Saturday. He is Java War from Kenny McPeek’s barn. He is a May foal that has far more foundation than the more mature Verrazano. In fact, 4 of his 5 starts have been at 8F or longer. He finished 6th to Uncaptured in The Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes in his last start before being given 3 months off.  That was his dirt debut.

He carries his head very high similar to Revolutionary but he is a beautiful mover with great acceleration. He worked: 59.89 in preparation to take on the wonder horse Verrazano and I think he will be competitive.

When a May foal is given 4 races at a mile and over and then put down for 3 months for further development it can return significantly improved.  I do not believe this War Pass will not finished last and merit being included in your exotics. Why? He is a War Pass."

I suspect you cashed in on the $43 exacta.

Java War spotted your wonder horse 4-5L at the gates and close from a long way last. It was  his was seasonal debut and he could be another Giacomo. He was certainly not one pace in the stretch and kept galloping resolutely.

He was the real story in the TBD.

Near impossible card at GP to put anything together with multi race winners.

Ranagulzion,

You are clearly excited over Verrazano’s victory. Good win but nothing exceptional. Mr. Pletcher’s record now reads 2 from 7. His reported Deep Bench is slowly coming out of its trench.

If you listen carefully you might just Hear The Ghost that is now haunting CA!

Did Verrazano do anything to justify the Wonder Horse status bestowed on him?

Did he give the impression that he will be effective at 10F against the cream of the crop?

Did he decimate the field?

Many of the colts did not show up in the TBD. The fractions were not particularly fast and I was surprised that the chasing group was that far behind with the exception of Java War who surrenders 4-5L at the gates.  If Java War did not walk out of the gate it would have made for an interesting race. He would not likely win but would force Verrazano to run a bit more. It was his first race in 3 months and second on dirt.

BTW: Verrazano is 3 months his senior based on DOB.

I did not see anything in Verrazano’s performance that suggested he is as exceptional as touted.

If the majority of the colts in the TBD were not able to sit closer to a 47 pace they do not belong in the Derby.

Flashback:

He ran a courageous race but was exposed as not being a wonder horse. I think this race is likely to set him back. The internal fractions recorded while going head to head with a very fast opponent is not good for a colt making its third start. He is a Tapit and they have proven to be very temperamental and soft. One tough race and they can go off. Tapizar and Joyful Victory are prime examples.

As cited in some of my previous posts, the internal fraction recorded in the Bob Lewis were pedestrian and Flashback’s impressive win should have been taken in proper context.  

Despite his loss he is still being regarded as a monster by a particular contributor. This is not surprising as said contributor hailed Dunkirk as a rising Start after his defeat in the Belmont. I guess eventual Champion 3YO Summer Bird was a non-factor.

What title is given to a monster slayer?

There are those that will blame Flashback’s loss on his rider’s decision to engage Goldencents in the first 6F that turned out to be wicked fractions. If Flashback was a freak as proclaimed, said fractions would not be a factor. I contend the outcome of the race would be no different.  

Hear The Ghost running style and PPs suggest that he would be formidable in two turn races. I cited in a previous post that he was not a sprinter. He closed to be 1 1/2L second in race at 6F completed in 1:08 and a bit. The 6F fractions for the SF were 1:09 plus. There is not set of fractions that could have been recorded to stop HTG as he was much he best on Saturday.

The terms monster and freak are loosely used to describe certain horses in each new crop. If a horse’s achievements has not either equaled or superseded those of past champions, why are these accolades being bestowed prematurely?  

Have we not seen enough Uncle Mo’s and Union Rags’ in the past?

General comments-

Matthew:  I missed the Birdlover tab...well done.

Ranag:  As Coldfacts indicated, a bit overly zealous in the smack considering the animal was 3/5. Congrats on your confidence nonetheless.

Coldfacts: I could be mistaken, but it seems to me you use DOB as both a method of projecting performance and excusing performance. Again, you did acquire 'rights' in the SF with HtG - well done.

Credibility:  the $3 exacta in SA's 8th got back the weekend losses ? What happened to the 'good night racing' results from Friday with follow up posting of more tickets of unknown origin and ownership?  Posting one $13.40 winner here on Friday night and three failures at odds of 65-1, 35-1, and 15-1 still makes for a clearly profitable day.

Coldfacts-

Knocking any horse that won a Triple Crown race is dubious at best (Union Rags). You stated so in your rant regarding Mine That Bird's Derby win.  Why the two faces?

Kenny McPeek on Java's War "He ran super, no complaints. I'm very pleased coming off a long layoff. Todd's horse is a freak."

I guess he has a different opinion of Verrazano then the experts on this blog.

PHD,

“Coldfacts: I could be mistaken, but it seems to me you use DOB as both a method of projecting performance and excusing performance”

I am a fan of May foals.  I do not use their DOB as an excuse for their losses. I use their DOBs to denote that despite the maturity disadvantage associated with them, they perform creditably.

I will take a good May Foal over a good January foal any day.

El Kabong,

Revisit the Sunday Silence at Lone Star Park and the tenacity of Java War will be on display.

If nothing else, he is genuine. He is much improved since his dirt debut in the Kentucky Jockey Club.

He will be dangerous in any of the remaining 9F Derby preps.

Coldfacts-

Is the name calling necessary?

Surely that's not the Zen way.

Good luck

PBH,

I presented cold fact in my post you regarded as a rant.

I was not knocking a classic winner. The hype associated with Union Rags after his FOY victory was overbearing.

The litany of excuses/reasons for his defeat to Hansen could rap around the globe.  

I was knocking the hype not the colt.

Perhaps you meant nothing with the 'PHD' title,  as your follow up is also incorrectly directed. Either way, forgotten.

I did not mean 'rant' in a negative way- I often refer to my own pontifications as rants. For that matter, your defense of MTB is warranted.

As for UR, clarification appreciated.

Coldfacts,

That KJC race was the tip. He had a terrible break, ran 6 wide up the backstretch and then 7 up the lane. I respect Uncaptured's ability and you won't catch a horse like Uncaptured doing that. But to come off a long layoff and run that race was very impressive. If he can get that close to the top horse at 8.5 after 3 months off, chasing a moderate pace, I can only imagine how much more to his liking 10f's and a faster pace is going to suit the royal blood in his veins. And that Dam of his is lightly raced as you prefer, but the Damsire has done an outstanding job of passing on his stamina to his daughters kids, including one of my favorites, Powerscourt. He will be fun to watch as they go longer.  

PBP,

Honest error!

I must confess that despite my love for Hear The Ghost I wagered more on Tiz A Minister.

I am GG fan and I won a lot on the colt with my man up in his last start. He looked magnificent in the paddock and I suspect would have won if not for a judgmental error by GG.

Approaching the top of the stretch he had the room and option to go inside and save ground but chose to needlessly take the colt six wide and that cost him a victory and me a big exacta haul.

Mr. Patrick Husband was at his worst in costing me a lot of money as well. For a rider with his experience it is inexcusable what he did with Pyrite Mountain.

How can these riders turn victory into defeat with such bad decisions?

Unbelievable!

re: KCJ

Am I mistaken, or is Java's War the first horse to run well out of a race that has far exceeded the Remsen for futility?

for what it's worth...

My only play of the day.

Las Flores stakes

Santa Anita race-8

superfecta

#1/#3/#2,#6/#2,#6

$5.00 play($10.00 total)

good luck to all today!

<')))))>{

Crazy value in race 2 GP.  #7 in last finished 5th by 19 lengths and is even money.  #9 finished 4th by 19 lengths in same race and is 9-1.  Ugly race without a horse worth betting but the money flow is suprising.  

Thinking my infatuation with Casse is over after DS dismal performance.  We've actually seen this movie before, correct?  Not that it mattered, but Rosario having him so wide surely was no better than his previous pilot.  

Thanks to PBP (taken by the storm) and Mary, Matthew and Kevin's thoughts on SA's 8th, had a real nice winner and an awesome exacta now off to see the wizard with kids.  

re: KCJ

He is the first but lets examine why. I think you can give second place finisher Frac Daddy a hall pass considering his injuries. Uncaptured, the winner has yet to run but he is training very well and will be one of the favorites in the Spiral. Dewey is a turfer who ran a good race in the Palm but was clearly compromised when steadied in the turn. I think all four of these horses are quality and will continue to perform well. I expect Uncaptured and Java's war to make the Derby and think Frac Daddy might have contended if not for the mishap in the Holy Bull. Only Normandy Invasion stands a slight chance to get into the Derby from the Remsen. I don't think the KJC despite its slow start,  will be viewed as a useless result come May. The Remsen has one hope and I think his Boston Harbor blood will compromise his Tapit advantage in the Wood.

Sam Santschi,

Casse's better horse is yet to come. Hold that infatuation until the Spiral.

Oops, JayJay not Kevin on the SA help.

Kevin-

Solid concept though you may improve results by requiring that when using 'tandem race' horses, each has finished 4th or better in the prior race,  beaten less than 10.

Little known author William Scott has a couple of old handicapping works with some very useful angles and ideas - the 'tandem rule' is one of them I've never forgotten.

I'll be playing the GP 11-5 One Mint Julep today off the 'better than looks' 9f turf race two back vs better into the teeth of a Closers Extreme.

One person I did not give credit to regarding Hear the Ghost is Forbidden Apple, not that he cares, needs or wants my applause.  He was the first one to point out HtG shortly following the San Pedro when he tabbed that one as 'much the best'. Of course,  I promptly began 'inserting foot into mouth'.

Well done FA

Coldfacts,

Verazzano won the Tampa Bay Derby under a hand ride in only his 3rd start, with your much vaunted pony-biting Purple Egg laying a "duck egg" at the rear of the field and you're still trying to knock down the colt ...why ...because he's trained by Pletcher? Take your licks graciously my friend.  Kudos to you on spotting Java's War ...good runner-up effort by the colt but no match for Verazzano ...admit it buddy.

Hear the Ghost ran very well to win the San Felipe but with a more judicious ride he would not have caught Flashback. As for Goldencents, his limitations was glaringly exposed.  I look forward to a rematch (HtG vs Flash) in the Santa Anita Derby.

PBP

re: KJC

Java is the first but in all fairness, lets examine why.

Uncaptured, the winner,  has yet to run.

Frac Daddy was injured in the HB but had every right to be a contender. He may emerge down the road.

Dewey Squared is a turfer. His effort in the Palm was compromised in the turn when steadied. We should see more from this guy. Heck if they run him the Bluegrass, he might pull a Dullahan and get in the Derby.

I can easily see Uncaptured and Java War making the Derby and Frac Daddy being competitve maybe as soon as the Preakness. Normandy Invasion is the only hope for the Remsen to place a Derby contender but I think his Boston Harbor blood will get the best of his Tapit advantage in the Wood. So despite a slow start, the KJC will not be viewed as a useless result come May.

El K-

Fair enough,  though I do not concur.

Both stakes, 'just races' from our view, were given an awful lot of undo hype early in 2013 by a large number of those making 'lists'.  Thus far, all I see are lot of money losing results for bettors supporting runners exiting each. On that note, I believe Overanalyze has a right to improve off the one paced effort in the speed favoring Gotham under his belt

As for Java's War, a nice race,  but somebody had to run second in a field of marginal talent. No opinion on that one for me.

Time will tell,  though crediting either race this far down the road is suspect.

Good luck.

scratch that super....only 6 horse race now :(

still like the #1 in that race(SA8th)...if 5-1 or better.

best of luck

<'))))>{

PBP,

Just saw my email about frac daddy. 5F's in 58:47. Looks like he could be back sooner than I anticipated.

El K-

Glad to hear - the more (healthy ones) the merrier.

PBP,

Looks like the Spiral will tell us much about the KJC.

from McPeek:

"Frac Daddy works 1/2 mile in 47.4 easily. Hoof grab and throat issue behind us. Everything happens for a reason. @TurfwayPark Spiral next March 23. Garrett Gomez rides"

Uncaptured, Balance the Books, Rydilluc, Frac Daddy.

Wow, Fort Larned ran a hole in the wind! It would have been nice if Hernandez could have hung on. Good luck trying to beat this animal after a clean start.

Game On Dude a champion? Yes, he is the best horse that has the word dude in his name.

Ranagulzion,

Great handicapping with Verrazano, I hope you hammered him @ $2.80. Flashback was never going to hold off the late charge by Hear the Ghost, open your eyes next time.

Plod Boy Phil,

I will never understand why you called Hear the Ghost an obvious downgarde. I told you after his San Pedro run that he was going to run big next out. With a 417 Tomlinson figure, he was crying out for a longer race. Why would anyone ever consider him a sprinter? By Ghostzapper and out of a Coronado's Quest mare, that speaks distance to me. I take notice every time I see a horse out of a Coronado's Quest dam, they are runners (Soldat). Hear the Ghost runs like Easy Goer, he is for real. Flashback also ran well, no shame in second place. Leparoux is a stiff. He was riding the horse out of the gate and then rushed him up to the leader. He looked a bit rank and then down the stretch it was odd that he could not finish any better. Hear the Ghost had a dream start and finish. Tiz a Minister looked like a winner and the Ghost just hit his next gear and took off again, very impressive.

longwaytomay : Yes, maybe 50 will be enough, not sure - so maybe not win the SA derby, but he needs to hit the board.

I'll use Belle Of The Hall, Shumoos, and Teddy's Promise exacta.  Maybe have something on Santa's win pick. I know where to find him if I need to complain.

FA-

There is no mystery about the racing flow methodology in terms of what it does and doesn't provide.  The reason for the DG of Hear the Ghost,  winner of the San Felipe, are clearly stated. On that note, I did express a concern that I'd have been more confident had the San Pedro been a DG based on Flow, not one off a 6 race Bias figure. My job is too analyze the figures, not provide insight into things that are not at the core of our product.

With no desire to hedge or back pedal, I genuinely had a feeling that the SF was a great spot for the DG exacta box,  not that I made it.  In fact, I'm so unscathed by the result that the entire Graded Report for yesterday is on the website.

Good luck to you and the horse going forward.

Forbidden,

I'm with you on Lep's ride. He's not a good fit for Flashback anyway and there is no chemistry there between rider and horse. If' I'm Baffert, I bring him into the conference room, playback the film, tap the pencil on the table a few times to break the silence in the room and then....YUR FIE-URD. Get ne Stevens.

Jay Jay, I don't put much on the 2 or 3 year olds, yet, but I had a nice day, thanks.

FA-

As I responded to Rusty's inquiry about HtG being called 'a sprinter',  I did no such thing.  I could only rate the horse off the races as presented.

Despite not focusing on breeding and other factors, my foundation of general knowledge in this game is as good as most.  I was on Ghostzapper in the BC and am more than familiar with Coronado's Quest,  having seen him in person at MTH.

Thus, I find the use of "why would anyone...." both self serving and bit rank in itself.

No matter - be well.

FA-

I'm sure you recall the opinion I offered of North Slope, a horse that won a MSW turf race that we classified as Speed favoring. While NS's failure as a DG next out means little, it's worth noting that the pace setter of that 2/2 race at GP, Oistins Town, was a miserable failure as the second choice in GP's 5th yesterday.

Fair and objective evaluations of any method requires one look at the entire body of work,  not just isolated cases.

If i had a thimble.............put everything in it, that coldcuts knows.........................i would have room for another thimble........................what a wack job.........

Jay jay.....and others.......perfect race for flashback...........he will be 6/5 in sa derby.......apparently you dont know this.....

In case you dont know....flashback has run 3 times......

Ranagulzion,

Your buddy Coldfacts has forgotten all about touting the Egg. He is all about telling everyone I told you so with the Ghost and then dismissing Verrazano by saying that Java "spotted" the winner five lengths at the start. I watched the start live and several times on replay, and every horse broke well except for the one who stumbled, and it wasn't Java. It was Verrazano. What really happened was Java got smoked in the first hundred yards by a horse who stumbled coming out of the gate and was then hustled into position. Java passed alot of tired horses but couldn't pass a horse who didn't break well and was given a hand ride the rest of the way. But like Coldfacts said earlier, Java was the real story of the TBD.

KY VET : Thanks for the info!  I don't think anyone here knows he'll be the favorite in the SA derby.  That's some juicy information right there.   Only one problem there bud... being the favorite in the SA derby doesn't mean he'll be in the Kentucky Derby.   Just making sure you know that...he actually has to hit the board to earn points.  They don't count the odds in the race to qualify for the KDerby.

GP 11-5 One Mint Julep:  

No horse.

Guess it could be a lot worse.  For instance claiming him for $25K.

El Kabong,

I had the same thoughts last night, Gary Stevens would be a great fit for Flashback. I understand that it was a prep race, but I don't like how Flashback finished. Since Hear the Ghost is on the improve too, I think he is the horse to beat in the Santa Anita Derby. Maiden race 70 beyer, San Pedro 89 beyer, San Felipe beyer? The Ghost was on my first D. Dozen list and then I removed him for lack of racing. He moves way up this week, look out.

Plod Boy Phil,

Just because Hear the Ghost had run in two 6 furlong races, this does not make him a sprinter. I don't know, I was impressed by his running style in the San Pedro and was anxious to see him stretch out. He more than lived up to my expectations, his late kick was fast and smooth. So far he has the highest tomlinson number that I have seen from any 3 year old colt.

Cold Facts,

What is Hollendorfer's KY Derby record? Any opinion on Hear the Ghost as a serious KY Derby threat?

KY VET,

In case you don't know, Hear the Ghost has run 3 times.

Thank you, Birdlover had plenty of trouble in his last race, he also ran lights out on a soft, slower turf in England--she really took to the giving turf, she dashed out of there....regarding the San Felipe, Flashback got the hard race he needed, sort of like Bodemeister in last year's San Felipe, we shall see if he can rate, but he ran eyeballs out yesterday, I was impressed---also was impressed with The Ghost! Not sure the West can compete with that monster of Pletcher's, but it's still early....

Darn! new teddy was beatable......picked wrong one! BAAH HUMBUG!

Forbidden apple is on hear the ghost in the sa derby....jj is off flashback in the sa derby.....on record.....

Besides the win, I think team Baffert got what they wanted out of the SF. Was there even a whip involved?

Not sure about verrazzano....stumble at start gave him a cut.......but showed a bad sign on first turn.....watch his head way out......didnt seem to be a reason for that........nice horse though

gg race 8 longshot to close get a peice...wp #5

VET-

Wouldn't call it 'off form'...but she did get beat.  Thought you might use a closer there.

uggg! trouble on the turn!!!! #5 lost by neck! almost 6 to 1......had the horse! small steady on turn......place dammit

i liked winner then got on shmoos.....its ok....happens

KY Vet,

Verrazano ran a 105 beyer at Gulfstream and now a 101 beyer at Tampa. Is he over the top or right where you want him to be in early March? That is two big races in a row and that equals no chance according to your previous logic concerning Itsmyluckyday.

Ranagulzion

Are you Pletchers lawyer? Sometimes I think so,defending him at every turn. Another year he's loaded again......another year he loses....again.

Fugue for Tinhorns,

Right you are about the SF, still there is a disconnect between Lep and Flashback, and I like Lep.....on turf. And I've been puzzled by this combo since day one. Baffert has been burned by this scenario once. I don't think he'll tolerate a second. Lookin at Lucky suffered the same fate. Guess we'll  have to wait and see if Bob determines this is business, and nothing personal.

apple...not sure what i think about him.......i dont understand why both trainers didnt teach the horses to rate.......i dont get it........both v and f dont rate that well.......its supposed to be a prep......im leaning towards a no on v......for the derby.....not sure

sure hope youre right mike relva........but you dont know much....

funny no comments about goldencent rider........he caused the whole thing......the both messed up.....i really hate jockeys....

plod....the whole reason i loved the race, was that i though fav. would go off form....she only did a little........the guys on tvg called race a free square, 3/5...lost......im counting that part of it being right....originally liked rumor...then chose shmoos.....my bad....................we will find out next race on teddy....if she loses....

The thing about the san felipe, was flashback was 5 back, perfect....and julien didnt take hold......took alot of energy to get up to a goldencents that was running off......pretty impressive really.....dumb, but impressive.....

Ranagulzion,

“You’re still trying to knock down the colt.”

Verrazano was 2-5 and won like a 2-5 should. I applauded his effort as I saw it. If that is knocking him down then I am guilty as charged. As specified anything less than a track or stakes record would not impress me as he is support to be a wonder horse.

He won by 2-3 and that does not constitute decimating the TBD field as you predicted. You were just as infatuated with Uncle Mo so I do not expect better.

“with your much vaunted pony biting Purple Egg laying a "duck egg" at the rear of the field.”

Purple Egg the subject of this Blog ran less than expected. There is no need to specify that he finished last as I did  not specify that Ore Pass  a colt you fancied in the Gotham finished last. Purple Egg was returning from sickness that led to him being scratched twice. His trainer said he was OK but apparently he is not.

“You’re still trying to knock down the why? Because he's trained by Pletcher?”

Union Rags was not trained by Todd Pletcher and you and I had similar exchanges over your obsessive love affirm with him. I happen to think Revolutionary is the horse to beat in the Derby and can you guess who trains the colt? The above question is therefore misplaced.

“Take your licks graciously my friend.  Kudos to you on spotting Java's War”

It amazing the excitement a 2-5 horse can provide. It must have taken a lot of research to find him.

My colleague I can cite many horses heading into the Derby that were no match for the ML favorite.  The colt was making his 3YO debut at a track known to be difficult. He ran by some very decent horses and galloped resolutely against a horse that was not for catching.

Monarchos had no chance of catching Congaree in the Wood but caught him in the Derby. Funny Cide  had not chance of catching Empire Maker but bested him in the Derby. Remember 10F can be an equalized.

“I look forward to a rematch (HTG vs Flash) in the Santa Anita Derby.”

There will be no rematch as Flashback is damage good. He ran his heart out and could not repel the Ghost. He will need a lot of time to recover and he might just be afraid of chestnuts going forwards.

KY Vet

I know enough to not paint the illusion of knowing everything like some on here do daily.

longwaytomay,

"Your buddy Coldfacts has forgotten all about touting the Egg”

How could anyone forget about the Egg when he is the subject of the blog?

The colt ran badly and I cannot give any reasons as the pace was within his capabilities.  His trainer said he was OK. He did not perform that way. He is better than his performance.

Nowhere on this blog have I been salivating over HTG’s victory. Kindly point to the post!

You are correct about the start of the race. What appeared initially as a bad break for JW was really him being slowly into stride. In any event by the time that reached the first turn he was 4-5 lengths behind.

I am not dissing Verrazano. I just do not think he is a wonder horse. He was not in hand while winning the TBD. He was being pushed out with some effort.

“But like Coldfacts said earlier, Java was the real story of the TBD.”

We all have opinions.  Verrazano was expected to win in hand. Dynamic Sky and Honorable Dillion were expected to make the race competitive. No one expected a little colt at 32-1 making his seasonal debut to finish second handily.

The surprise will always be the talk of the town. Do you recall Mine that Bird. He was the surprise.

That would have been some Christmas, KY. Luckily, I was late to the track. I still want my present, though.

To anyone....Its obvious coldcuts is just a contrarian.....He never likes the ones on top....people, horse, anything......duh.......he lists 20 horses, none do anything....he wont bet hear the ghost, he won........he will find some crazy horse with a giraffe neck, who was foaled on a thursday in may, provided its the right color.....if not, its the horse with the webbed hoof on an off track, with peppermints in his system...............QUACK QUACK!

Dont worry ranag........if you said the sky was blue.........coldcuts would say its clear........if you said that water was wet, coldcuts would say it was clear........If you called coldcuts a idiot, he would say....its clear.........

Where's the record that says I'm off flashback ?  I was asking you because you never stated he will win the SA derby.  It's typical of you, you don't put your comments out there until after the race, then go with how the results went. lol.  You put money on this horse right ?  or was that just another pretend KDFW bet ?  If he does make it to the KDerby, he will not have a single dollar of my money, he'll be one of the many that I will let beat me but I doubt he will.  I don't know about the SA Derby yet as I don't know who he'll be running against.

you got youre christmas present yesterday....plod talked down to you......and you showed him......did you see the jock ask your horse again for 2 furlongs, and he hit that gear at 1/8 pole again.....i told you, thats rare........part of the reason i stayed out.......nice hit.........i get the best horse though......we will see huh? told you youre the 2nd best on here......

2nd best?  Not at some things.  Like Who Am I?  Double consonants first name and last name 4 U. Yes/no?

Forbidden Apple,

"What is Hollendorfer's KY Derby record? Any opinions on Hear the Ghost as a serious KY Derby threat?”

2012 Rousing Sermon (8th)

2009 Chocolate Candy (5th)

2007 Bwana Bull (15th)

2006 Cause To Believe (13th)

2003 Eye Of The Tiger (5th)

Mr. Hollendorfer has done very well with the limited opportunities he had in Derbies contested. I think if he gets a serious Derby horse the rest will be history. He is an excellent trainer.

Hear The Ghost is a serious Derby horse. He has a Derby negative but several Derby positives. The Derby negative is the fact that his sire is a Breeder Cup Classic winner.  I will be laughed at for the listing same as a negative. However, BCC winners have extremely poor records as Derby winning sires. Only one BCC winner has sired a Derby winner.  They seem to have a strained relationship with the race. If not for Unbridled they would be on zero.

Ghostzapper bred only 84 mares in 2009 so he does not fall into the 150 mares bred category that has not produced a Derby winner to date. He was not overbred.

Flashback sire Tapit bred 170 mares. His chances of winning the Derby are zero.

The Northern Dancer sire line is second to the RAN/Mr. Prospector sire line with number of Derby winners in the last 25 years.

His dam was lightly races and belongs to a category of mares that has produces the most Derby winners.

He has speed, stamina and a stride pattern that is deceptive. He does not appear to be going fast although he is covering ground quickly.

He is very professional for a colt that has only made three starts suggesting an abundance of intelligence.

I had some win tickets on him on his debut and he had been my little secret horse in CA for sometime. I guess I was not the only one that had eyes on him.

Don't worry. I'm not telling anyone here what I think the answer is.

Beware of my namesake Mr. Palmer as he won the 9F Private Term Saturday after walking out of the gates.

The connections have decided to put him on the Derby Trail. They did not specify where they would join the trail but where ever they go I will be there with my cash.

The hot sons of Pulpit are S99 and Power Broker. However, this Pulpit colt out of an unraced Quite American mare has a proved classic pedigree. He is not very fast but will run all day.

If a horse carries my name its has to carry my cash.

Laz wants to know why the name Harry Palmer was rejected by the Jockey Club.

I thought Flashback ran great and while I don't take everything Baffert says on faith he had reason to complain about Leparoux, and it will be a positive sign if he switches jockeys.  I'm looking forward to the rematch.

I have to credit participants here with some good buzz about Hear the Ghost: Mary Zinke, predict, Forbidden Apple and someone else I think all liked him.  

Listed below is an extract from a 2012 article I read recently.

"Today in a national conference call, trainer Todd Pletcher was asked to name the figurative four number one seeds on the Kentucky Derby Trail.

Pletcher didn't hesitate in answering. "Union Rags, Gemologist, Hansen and Creative Cause.," he said.

All the horses specified by the multiple Eclipse Award winning trainer finished off the board.

Trainers are certainly more knowledgeable than the collection opinionated contributors that support these blogs. Right!

The most surprising selection was the undefeated Gemologist.

In a post prior the Derby I specified that if Gemologist won, the Derby should no longer be regarded as the run for the roses but instead the walk for the roses. He was big and slow.

Mr. Pletcher apparently did not observe the way Gemologist carried his rail side front leg. If he was being observant, he would have noticed the flopping action while the colt was in a full gallop. He would therefore have known that the prospects of this colt successfully completing 10F with 126 and its large frame were remote at best.  

Gemologist exited the Derby with an injury where? His rail side front leg!

He returned in the Haskell and I told a friend and fan of his that the only way for him to finish on the board was if the entire field fell down.  He finished 6th. There were only six horses in the field.

Recently Mr. Mc Peek referred to Verrazano as Freak. Based on the above can his assessment be taken seriously at this stage.

El Kabong,

I agree with you about Java's War, and you will probably still get good odds on him in his next race.  Bettors have a hard time making a 32-1 shot 3-1 their next out.

Since people are already taking names of other people "for the record" -- I was off Flashback for the San Felipe am back on for the Santa Anita.  Though I reserve the right to change my mind in the next four weeks.

El Kabong,

That was a great pick on Java's Warrior and I hope you cashed somehow.  I thought it was a good race to try a longshot underneath Verrazano but I went a little too long, with the slowest horse on the track.  

By the way, the interview with the trainer really put me off Purple Egg, and Dynamic Sky turned out a classic "wiseguy" pick, so while the blog gets credit for Hear the Ghost, points off for this one.

JayJay-

It knew it would be a matter of time before your ticket posting on facebook would be exposed for nonsense it is.

Please explain how you 'cashed' a $2,600 trifecta on Friday night, yet needed to hit a $3 exacta at SA on Saturday afternoon to get back "your losses for the weekend, lol".  As expected, the winning exacta play was supplied by a blogger here in a race in which you had 4 horses listed,  but not the winner. Brilliant.

Weekend after weekend you provide strings of losing horses on this blog. The number are really astounding. It's one thing to be wrong nearly all the time in this very challenging pursuit. It's another to be a fraud.

Coldfacts,

You said of Verazzano's facile victory "I applauded his effort as I saw it. If that is knocking him down then I am guilty as charged. As specified anything less than a track or stakes record would not impress me as he is support to be a wonder horse."

Look my friend, the colt ran very close to the track record set by Street Sense (1:43.11 vs Verazzano's 1:43.96) while under a and ride and was given a 101 Beyer for an afternoon stroll ...what more do you want Buddy?  I know that he defies your "January foal rule" and perhaps the "overbred sire rule" but that's reason enough for you to regard him as a freak of nature.  The cold facts are making monkey's faces at you Bro.

Coldcuts:

Nice write up on Hear the Ghost prior to SF.  I had the chance to play him at the Wynn in January at 225-1.  Loved seeing the Ghostzapper speed on top of the Coronado mare. Would also love to see Hollendorfer win.

But easy on the Flashback bashing.  Really has no chance next out??? Come on... back to the # of mares bred again?

If they run anything near 1:11 in SA Derby there is no way the Ghost catches him.

Goldencents needs to get off the Derby trail.  And Krigger needs to get off horses.

Verazzano beat nothing.  Still not sold although probably was best two turn dirt effort ever by a More Than Ready horse.

Vet:  Teddy just moved too soon in that race.  Nothing wrong with the horse.

Coldfacts,

"Funny Cide  had no chance of catching Empire Maker but bested him in the Derby"

You're misremembering what was a very exciting Wood, with a long duel in the stretch, and Empire Maker the one chasing Funny Cide in both races.

Friend, buddy, and bro,

How much cash did you have on Verrazano to win? Is he your Triple Crown winner this year?

Yes, Empire Maker had to run down Funny Cide in the Wood, but did so under "confident handling" as the chart put it.

The only reason FC beat EM in the KY Derby was that EM missed training the prior week due to a hoof bruise and Jerry Bailey thought he was sitting on the next triple crown winner, so he went 6-7 wide around the first turn and kept 5 wide the rest of the way thinking that EM would just gallop the competition into submission.

FC didn't prove to much competition for EM in the Belmont.

So the only time FC beat EM was when EM had missed training the week prior to the race and was given a horrible ride, when FC enjoyed an ideal trip.

Rusty,

Java War will get good odds next out for sure and right now that next I read will be either in Dubai(I really hope not) or the Bluegrass. McPeek apparently wants his next and final prep to be on Synthetic. It is a safer play in that you know what condition of track your getting and you'll get something out of the race regardless of weather, but I'd love to see him run at some real pace which we know will be happening in Florida for sure. Save that Dubai non$en$e for next year.

Reviewed the SF again and I couldn't help but notice the deep close of Tiz the Minister and how fast he went around the turn closing 7 lengths in a blink to catch up to the Ghost. He looks like he's skidding to make the turn. Errrrrrrrrrt! It sure seemed like GoGo wasted a ton of energy doing it that way and then going so wide. An earlier and more gradual effort probably would have saved him more ground and energy. Anyone else notice this?

THE KEYMASTER,

Just pointing out it wasn't a race that fit the pattern Coldfacts was describing.  Yes, I remember the foot bruise, and yes, I think Empire Maker showed who the better horse was, though Funny Cide didn't help himself a sapping :58 work the week before and rankness in the race.  I was at that Belmont, by the way.  The weather forecast was correct that year, predicting a 100% chance of rain.

Ranagulzion

“Look my friend, the colt ran very close to the track record set by Street Sense (1:43.11 vs Verazzano's 1:43.96)”

It’s very interesting what you regard as close. I gather Prospective's 1:43.35 and Musket Man’s 1:43.67 were even closer but they were full out and under the whip.

The clot was not in hand and was extending his strides fully while being pushed out with effort. Wonder Horses should be able to record track records under a hand ride and that why they are regarded as wonder horses  horses\Freaks.

“I know that he defies your "January foal rule and perhaps the "overbred sire rule"

I have no January foals rules. I just do not like them as I think they products from mares that are placed under lights to manipulated Mother Nature’s calendar.

Rachael Alexander is a January so too is Derby winner Grindstone. There have not been many Derby winners with January foaling dates despite their maturity advantage. Your 2012 also ran Derby choice Gemologist is a January foal.

Nearco who was unbeaten in 14 starts and sire of Nearctic, Royal Charger and Nasrullah was a January foal. Do not mistake dislike for disdain.

Verrazano’s sire More Than Ready bred 120 mares in 2009. This figured is well below the 150 mares bred threshold established for over bred stallions.

Freaks of Nature - an unusual, unexpected natural phenomenon. The colt recorded a time of 1:34 and a bit for 8F on the GP Speedway. Both S/Bobby & ItSmyluckyday recoded similar times with ItSmyluckyday doing it twice.

Usain Bolt is a Freak Of Nature as his achievements were previously thought impossible to be achieved in the time frame that they occurred.

Until this colt does the unprecedented, kindly stop the hype.

El Kabong,

Read my post on 10 Mar 2013 12:43 PM.

Coldfacts,

It looked like your Mr. Palmer's task was to avoid any contact with the other horses on the way to routing them, just looking at the notes.

I am very excited to be able to get away for a full card of racing at Laurel this weekend, where I haven't played for years, so I was looking over the charts.  Not to diminish Mr. Palmer's performance, but this track looks slow and unforgiving to early speed and inside paths.  I haven't played one like that for a while.

Rusty Weisner,

You are correct regarding the Wood with Funny Cide and Empire Maker. I should have put the records proper prospective. Empire Maker the 9 3/4L FL Derby winner defeated Funny Cide in the Wood  but lost to him as the Derby favorite.

Gotcha Rusty and I'm in agreement with you.

Coldfacts,

I can't believe how much ground the Minister made up in the blink of an eye. Not LIke Java's War who closed as much ground more gradually. That was one explosive burst. GoGo will probably make an adjustment next out and give this guy a better chance.

re: San Felipe

The race came back perfectly 'neutral - aka, fair for all styles.

While both the Minister and even the grand winner HtG made impressive closing runs, it should be noted that this field of 8 was well spread out. As a result, despite one bloggers claim that trouble cost one of the above the win (?), each enjoyed open space in which to fire their best shots.

Forbidden Apple

lol You know any horse Pletcher trains is a sure fire Triple Crown winner. lol At least according to one individual.

Rusty

Speaking of Funny Cide, was in Kentucky over the weekend and visted him, Cigar, Go For Gin at the Horsepark. Made a stop at Old Friends Saturday.

Mike Relva,

That reminds me -- the only occasion I ever had to go to Kentucky was the day Funny Cide ran in the Preakness, to Lexington.  Problem was, it was for a stupid wedding.  I did a chance to make it over to Keeneland make a bet, but there wasn't live racing.  The closest I get now is the mint from my garden I toss in my bourbon come spring.

FAIR FOR ALL STYLES? WTF? You people amaze me sometimes.........does anyone know horses? Anyone understand horses? That is the dumbest thing ive ever heard!  What do you go on, that can make that race fair for all? You have got to be kidding........going that fast, in one of the worst big race sucide paces ever, head and head.......and you dont think it helped closers?  How can anyone take anything you say seriously ever again?..................have a nice day...

I liked the way Hear the Ghost responded to Tiz a Minister, who seems to be more of the one-shot kind of runner.

mike......you didnt mention Tiznow's booger.....its under the big table in the tropy room.....

ranag....your horse got perfect race.....not too good.....perfect prep......your horse worries me.....but im passing on him......coldcuts doesnt get it was a prep against nothing.....

Coldcuts:

You are the one that put it on a tee.  Being by a Breeder's Cup Classic winning sire is a negative for winning the Derby?  Now I have heard it all.

1:08 and change,

Of the Breeder Cup Classic winners between 1984 and 2006, four are excluded from being possible Derby winning sires. Cigar because his fertility problems. Sunday Silence, Arcangues and Black Ties Affair performed stallion duties in Japan.

Of the 19 stallions that remained in the US only Unbridled has sired a Derby winner. The records reflect that offspring’s of BCC winners rarely feature in the Derby.

I do not make up colt facts.

Pete are you ok? Haven't seen you on here in awhile.......either way this blog is a trip...thanks too all that post makes me laugh daily and i learn a thing or 2 yep learned about the ghost the hard way............

KY VET

Know it's difficult to comprehend,but there's other things besides cashing a ticket. There's honoring retired horses and contributing money to horse welfare.

That one probably went over your head.

KY Vet

Tel you what if you knew so much and everyone so little,you wouldn't bust your hump trying to convince us all the time. Can you say insecurity?

mary z= notty lil girl!

VET-

The figure is based on every 8.5f dirt race run at SA since the return to dirt: 180 races

Take a moment to look at the charts for the 2012 BCJ and the 2013 San Felipe. What do you see ? One was and Extreme for Closers and the other was well within the guidelines of 'normal'.  

Two more examples at SA of an Extreme for Closers and another w/in the 'normal' range:  SA 2/22 R6 and 1/26 R2. Look at all four of them together.  What do you see ?

Simply put, split times must be viewed in the context of the final time compared to what is the norm on a particular surface.

Thanks - You have a nice day as well.

PBP : You're trying so hard, seriously man.  It's really pathetic.  Not that I need to explain to you but I will so you can look like a sad sad man in desperate need of MY attention.   I've posted here numerous times in the past, when I go to the track, I bring with me a budget of $300.00...that's it.  That's my budget and I stick to it, when I post here i play night racing, that means I hit a few trifectas or exactas that allowed me to play night racing.  I've learned the hard way not to chase my losses for the weekend, why???  Because there's always the next weekend.  All the money I win that I take home, it goes to a college fund, that way there's NO way for me to spend it at the track.  So when I say "I got my money back", that's exactly what I mean, the exacta paid $97.00 for a buck.  You're a numbers guy, can you multiple 97 by 3 ?  And now you've been exposed with your I don't do facebook... obviously you went and checked it, otherwise, how would you know how much I won ??

Dude, seriously, worry about your users, I'm sure you have a lot more Bryan's to answer to.  That was truly funny.  By mistaking me for an unhappy user, you exposed that not all your users are happy contrary to what you post here, i'm sure quite a lot of them asks for their money back.  Your Flow is a scam, and I wouldn't be surprised that many more Bryan's are out there complaining about it.   You're a sad case lol.  You spend all your day here waiting for that "matter of time" that you catch me lol... get a life man.

plod.....thats embarrassing.....you dont think that was a speed duel?

The san felipe was a 93 beyer....those horses(goldencents and flashback) were better than the winner......the reason it was 93 beyer, was they quit......anyone that doesnt know this, is ignorant......and i was the one that was touting how good hear the ghost was............he's no flashback...........goldencents is better also..............learn this game people!

JayJay-

You've been exposed as a fraud. I clicked the link - it showed me the ticket. I did not need to be a facebook member. It's nice to know that the owners of these tickets let you take pictures of them as your own.  The words in you post can't be retracted, "losses for the weekend".  That means you were behind almost $300 for the weekend yet supposedly cashed a ticket worth almost $3k.  

You did have one thing correct.  Your ROI is something I could never dream of.

VET-

Speed duel has nothing to do with the figure analysis.  Why is that so hard to understand? Can the impact of the duel be quantified? Did you do what I asked with the four races ?

JayJay -

FYI,  Bryan is now a very happy customer.

Your picks on this blog defy logic for ineptitude.  Even picking numbers out of hat would produce more winners than you have in 2013. If not for the Capo Bastone winning exacta,  you'd be 0 for the year.

Oh, and speaking of fraud, anyone can look at a set of data and massage it to show what you want to see, you look at split times without considering how the horse did it.  A horse that goes :21 and :44 could be all out trying to steal the race, next time out, if there's no pressure, the horse can go :23 and :46 but you don't take that into consideration because you don't watch the races.  You use your "magic" formula, sells it to users, then you drown them with all these information on how you got to that magic number.  By the time they get done reading your explanation, they're lost and probably have forgotten who they like in the first place.  On top of that, I would guess about 80% of the time, your downgrades and upgrades doesn't pan out.  I asked you several times, what's your win/loss ratio, just simple numbers, how many have you picked and how many of those won vs lost.  Stop with that ROI thing, it doesn't help your users get their subscription fees back.  That, in my opinion, is fraud.

PBP:  Now look who has reading comprehension, I was explaining that I stick to my $300.00 budget because I learned the hard way not to chase my losses.  Duh.  Try again.

JayJay-

You've had since yesterday morning when I first noted the contradiction to come up with a new lie.

Now you are going to explain fractional times to me.  Seriously?  You, the guy that thought .1 was a millisecond ?  

JayJay -

Nobody, and I do mean nobody,  would use the phrase "got back my losses for the weekend" if they had actually cashed a $2,900 trifecta less than 24 hrs earlier.

plod....please explain how the race wasnt advantageous to closers.......and dis' for the speed............isnt that the whole deal, what you do? isnt the flow of the race a suicide duel? they stopped.....how can that not help the closers...........explain in  more detail...........

Phil....it doesnt matter if jj wins a million......he guesses......nothing skillful  about it....................whats the point? hey! im lucky!? He brings nothing of value......he and coldcuts should have a contrarian off contest!

So, Hear The Ghost cannot improve?  I like to be right, too, and I used to run down every other horse other than my favorites. Still learning. Oh, and I'll take that answer to my WAI question as a yes.

VET-

Come on brother. I think I explained it as well as I can using the four examples I gave. I saw the unusual action down the backstretch, and I saw what appeared to be a screeeeeching halt by the leaders in the final 1/16th or so that made the HtG late rush look better than it was. Lord knows I would have loved to find a reason for the win,  but the figure says otherwise.  

The sample size we currently have on 8.5f races on the dirt at SA is well within required limits. The fact is, there is always an expectation on dirt of horses slowing down in the second half of a race.  In this case, the deceleration was not unusual.  From our perspective, the Flow of the race was not advantageous or disadvantageous to any runner. I'm aware that the popular opinion out in 'talking head' land is very different.  So be it.

LOL, you read what you want to read, the fact is, you know exactly what I said but you're too embarrassed to admit it.  

Let's see how your flow did this weekend :

TBD :

Offlee Fast (not Offlee Wild, upgrade) - 2ND (to last)

SF :

Omega Star (upgrade) - 2ND (to last)

Flashback (downgrade) - 2ND (FO REAL!)

Hear the Ghost (downgrade) - 1ST

You had Taken By The Storm which makes you 1 for 5.  I was right, 80% of the time, you're dead wrong.  Oh, and here's the best one... "downgrade exacta" lol

" Hey you users, DO NOT bet these two horses!  We're downgrading them, we don't like them!  But...box them in exacta! "

JayJay-

Fact: There is a reason defense attorneys do not like to put clients of questionable character on the stand.  At some point the truth comes blurting out. In your case, you completely forgot about the 'score',  because it wasn't yours.

Fact: My posted plays here this weekend - $10 in, $13.40 out.  

I told readers here to bet the DG exacta,  not subscribers. It's not the first time DGs have run 1-2 and it won't be the last.  

Matthew W : Thanks for Birdlover, had a $3 exacta, got my money back for the weekend lol.

Mary !    Hope you cashed big on HTG !  Glad you didn't listen to the naysayer.  Nice play !

JayJay 09 Mar 2013 11:19 PM

Who's the naysayer?  If he's who I think he is, he probably doesn't have anything against me, but crap rolls downhill. I can't take that personally.

hear the ghost is a nice horse....he improved with a nice race....no one likes that extra gear more than me........but, as with vyjack, 93 beyer is not good enough......asking the horse to improve 4 times in a row, is not really likely....hey, just because youre not a derby horse, doesnt mean you are not a really good horse.................why do i have flashback in pool 2? because i know what a good horse looks like.......and he hasnt run fast yet..........i expect about a 98 beyer next out...maybe higher.....if you people doubt me, watch and learn! they better rate him, take him back!

So the fact that your telling people to bet against your downgrades means you're not confident of what your "flow" system is telling you.  If you're not sure about that, how can you be sure of the other picks your system tells you ?  Knowing that, you still charge people for this service ... shady.

There you go again, massaging the data... you were 1 for 5, who cares about winning $3.40?!?!    That's not even enough for a gallon of gas...sheesh.

plod.....was hoping for a simple explaination.....what, do you have to go 108? head and head? youre saying 109ch isnt out of the norm? To a normal person with a brain, if you go 109ch on that race, its way too fast.....just that should be enough....but head and head? wheres the heard dynamics guy when ya need him? Why is it no body says anything when people make no sense on here?

JayJay-

I can't discuss handicapping with you. It would be a one way conversation.

Good bye

I'm going to send a message on how well Flashback's training is going to dosequisguy.com  and see if it goes through.

jj says the same thing,,,over....and over.....the college fund cant be for you......you're too much of a baby.......how bout day care?

VET-

One could do a lot worse than having any of the top four in that race.

That was a hell of a race for me in fact.  Not only did I have to eat the DG exacta here,  but I had the reverse exacta as well,  running last and second to last.

KY, How did Flashback not run fast yet? Didn't he just run at a faster pace in the San Felipe?

JayJay:

How come you can't understand the upgrade and downgrade of a horse has nothing to do with whether he thinks the horse will win next out?????  It is simply a reflection of the race the horse just ran (or series of previous races) based upon the scenario that unfolded in the race.  Upgrade equals scenario played against the horse.  Downgrade equals scenario favored the horse during the race.

San Felipe was just an average race for the level.  I wouldn't be surprised to see shippers from the east and south head west for the SA Derby.  Unlike last year it seems the west is fairly weak.

Can't wait to see Itsmyluckyday hook up with Verazzano down the road.  Will love watching Plesa best TAP once again.  

JayJay

  You could buy a Mars bar, a Snickers, and a Butterfinger for $3.40. Or some Capn' Crunch on sale. It stays crunchy, even in milk.

VET-

The 6f split for the San Felipe was really 70 seconds, not 69 and change or 69 4/5th.  There is a difference and it's one that matters to us.

My two remain Code West and Vyjack.

I actually had to split the $3.40 profit with the same panhandler that fronted me the $1 for our Code West future wager bet.

Vet:

Yes they went 109 and change but the deceleration for the rest of the race was more gradual, not a hit the wall type that sets up for closers.  In effect they carried their speed effectively from a flow perspective.    

I have never heard 1:09.4 called a testing pace at Santa Anita in an 8.5f race with top class horses.  Claimers, yes.  If that was a testing pace for these 3 yr olds, then maybe they aren't as good as previously thought.

Flashback, by shooting up to Goldencents into the first turn, screwed it all up for both of them! If Julien stays down there, he wins for fun, and Goldencents is an easy second, they didn't have very many points to begin with! If The SA Derby goes without Goldy, (and I believe it should, he's no 1 1/4 horse!), Flashback will be heavily favored and win big! Make no mistake about it, Kevin Krigger was not at fault for what happened, the fault lies fairly and squarely on Flashpoint's jock, for sending him after Goldencents---I had a feeling the race was going to play out that way, and Hear The Ghost changed gears in deep stretch, ala Silver Charm in his Derby win, I probably won't be playing Ghost on top in the SA Derby, but he looks very much like Kentucky Derby timber!

The better horses out west are the Sup 99, code west, footbridge, curly top group.  SA Derby is won by someone outside of San Felipe group.

1:08 :  

" How come you can't understand the upgrade and downgrade of a horse has nothing to do with whether he thinks the horse will win next out?????  "

I'm sorry, I thought when he said Offlee Fast which is an upgrade will take some of his money means that he is betting the horse to win.  While Flashback and Hear The Ghost which are downgrades meant that either horse will not win.  Which part confused you about the upgrades and downgrades not having anything to do with whether he thinks the horse will win or not ?  And here's something else to think about... if his upgrades and downgrades has nothing to do with him picking horses, then what information is he actually selling ?  Anyone can say, "that horse ran bad last time, don't bet him" or vice versa, you can get those all day long at the track and it's FREE.  Heck, you get it here from KY VET day in and day out, and it's totally free if you can read morse code.

PBP : Is that true what 1:08 said ??  Your upgrades and downgrades has nothing to do with whether you think the horse will win next out ?  Can you please clarify for 1:08 and your RF players who might be reading this blog.

Well said about the ups and downs 1:08. A person still has to handicap the race.

JayJay- did you even read 1:08's post or did you just read the first sentence?  You have to read the whole thing before commenting.

JJ:

If the PLOD gives a horse an upgrade that just ran in a 10claimingn2l race at finger lakes because of say he closed into a race that favored front end speed.  And the next race he enters is a 50kAlwnx1 race at saratoga with a lone speed front end horse, the Finger Lakes horse might still be an upgrade but you as a bettor have to consider the situation the horse is in that day.  Make sense? PLOD is that correct?

Footlick : Yes, Yes I did.  Let me guess, I'm harrassing your boy again ?? lol, you're becoming a joke.

Fugue : Yeah, that's my point, for someone who only analyzes one aspect of the race, he comes here and questions everyone's method when his still requires his paying subscribers to handicap.

The fractions for the 2011 San Felipe are listed below:

Premier Pegasus: 21.75, 44.58, 1:08.98, 1:34.55, 1:141.23

The above fractions were significantly faster than those recorded in the 2013 San Felipe.

The three horses that were engaged in those suicide fractions were ridden by Rosario, Gomez and Nakatani. These are all top jocks in CA. Mr. Nakatan’s horse came away with a slight lead before the winner blew by.

It is a safe assumption that those being critical of MR. Leparoux would substitute him with any of the three above three.

The demonization of MR. Leparoux for his handling of the Freak can now come to an end.

Mr. SOS,

When you are capable of submitting a post similar to the one below you might just transition from bring annoying to engaging.

Posted :09 Mar 2013 10:53 AM

PBH,

"Like all, I am aware that pace makes the race.  I use fractions as comparison tool because internal fractions contribute significantly to the outcome of races. I am not hooked on them. I am more focuses on a horse’s action and speed distribution.

Hear The Ghost is not a sprinter and I understand why he would be a downgrade under your system. I would be more inclined to agree with a downgrade if he was contesting a race at a distance favorable to him.  He was under a ride from a long way out in his last to get into contention with a leader on the loose. He does not have great acceleration but maintains a strong gallop throughout the length of the stretch.

With his style he needs a strong pace upfront and a distance of ground. Will he win the SF? Like Flashback he has made only two starts so he lacks foundation. However, he does have as much talent as any in the field and upsets are always possible when young developing horses assembled."

1:08 and change,

As to whether the San Felipe was a strong race -- for what it's worth, last year's  final time ended up a half second faster than this year's, but the pace was only 1:11.23.

I know that visual impressions of Hear the Ghost might be deceptive, and I know they slowed down badly (25:76 fourth quarter) but I think the jury's out.

I don't even comment on here anymore because of the grade school mentality.  If this blog were informative at all instead of people bitching about each other's methods, I may comment again.  My comment had nothing to do with Phil,but everything to do with your reading and comprehension skills.  As 1:08's post clearly states comprehension of the data Phil presented,there is no need to ask Phil to clarify for 1:08's sake.  Your issues with Phil are your issues.  

Any chance Kiaran stretches Maleeh out in the Wood?  Total speed pedigree but I've seen worse attempts...Trinniberg.

1:08 and change,

Forgive me if I'm reposting; my comment was lost.  Last year's San Felipe was a half second faster, but the pace was 1:11.23, for what it's worth.  This year's final splits were very slow (25.76, 6.64), but I think the jury's still out on this year's quality.

Regardless, visual impressions can be deceptive, so I'm open to tempering my high opinion of both Hear the Ghost and Flashback.

Coldfacts-

A very strong post indeed.

Footlick-

My apologies to you and other's for my role in engaging in the dreadful nonsense with jay2.

While Keymaster and I had a similar exchange recently,  I will willingly acknowledge that he has clearly shown an ability to post solid, winning opinions prior to the races.

Be well.

1:08-

You clearly understand the information we provide and how it can be utilized by handicappers.

El Kabong,

Tiz a Minister did make a strong move around the turn and he had all of the momentum to go past Hear the Ghost. The fact that Hear the Ghost hit another gear and took off was the most impressive part of the race to me. A few cracks of the whip and he was gone, very smooth and professional. He is very well bred to love even more ground, the S.A. Derby is his for the taking.

KY Vet,

Here you go again saying that a 93 beyer is not good enough for Vyjack or Hear the Ghost. Yet a 104 beyer is too high for Itsmyluckyday. Like I said last week, you are starting to confuse yourself. Don't let your future wager on Flashback cloud your brain. Goldencents quit and Flashback's jockey stopped riding the horse. How are they both better than Hear the Ghost? Flashback has run fast, did you miss him being rank on the first turn and gunning up to a 45 4/5 half mile? You are against Itsmyluckyday and Hear the Ghost because you can not accept that it is possible that they both will keep on improving. So far you have picked Shanghai Bobby, Violence, Overanalyze, and Flashback. All have been beaten heavy favorites, good job Mr. Expert!

Rusty-

This is not to be argumentative in any way.

The final fractions of the San Felipe taken at face value without an accurate model for 8.5f dirt races on SA dirt are deceptive in their own right. I'll stand by our quantitative analysis of the race as 'neutral'.

PBP,

Has the performance of the Bob and John colt And Raise Yourglass been evaluate? He is likely to be a starter in the Rebel Stakes.  The Rebel is loaded and he is likely to be on the outside looking in with only a maiden victory to his credit.

I was impressed with his maiden victory. He swerved into the horse leaving the #6 post and was then pushed by horse leaving the #8 post. These sequences of events left him 5L last.

For a small colt he covers ground with deceptively quick strides and run like and Energizer Bunny. Once he took off he just kept running at basically the same quick pace to the line.

You are not into pedigree but And Raise Yourglass sire Bob and John is grandson of Mr. Prospector via Seeking The Gold of Dubai Millenniums fame. The Grandsons of Mr. Prospector are amongst the best sires in the TC arena.

And Raise Yourglass dam was sired by the 1995 Champion 2YO and two times Derby winning sire Maria’s Mon. This colt probably does not belong in the Rebel but with his pedigree and obvious ability you never know if he gets in, he may just struck a nerve.

Coldfacts,

"Demonization" is too strong, as is your deprecation of Flashback.  I listen to trainers when they openly question a jockey's ride....particularly when it's the same jockey who got blamed in recent memory for another horse's poor performance in a marquee race, and particularly when that horse went on to win a Triple Crown race once that rider was replaced.  Baffert's words jibed with the race we all watched.

As it turns out, Fort larned truely did run a hole in the wind.

23.19 44.29 1:08.04 1:20.59 1:33.89 are insane fractions with or without a jockey. He would have set track records at 6 and 6 1/2 furlongs, what a horse.

Coldcuts / VET:

Thoughts on Maleeh?

Coldcuts:

Please explain why Mr. Palmer is a Derby candidate but Flashback is not based on pedigree.  I don't get it.  Thanks

JayJay-

As stated here many times, an upgrade simply means that in the opinion of RF, a horse's last race or races looks better than it may appear to those not using our information.  Period.

In the par-mutual game, finding runners that are under-valued by those putting money into the respective betting pools is one of the keys to gaining an edge.  The same can be said of the public over-valuing runners that were beneficiaries of advantageous race dynamics in their prior race or races - these are downgrades.

An example from the weekend:

Saturday GP R5: Lone upgrade Autobahn Legend (50-1) had a very strong yet well hidden debut race. The result was not good,  but neither was having to jump over a fallen horse.

My stance on the undeniable impact subjectivity has on formulating accurate opinions solely through visual observations has been on record here for months. There are numerous scientific studies that support such an opinion. If nothing else, it's just human nature that the things we see and process as truth are based on preconceived ideas and information,  whether conscious or subconscious. This does not apply to all visual handicappers by any means.  Some do it quite well.

On the other hand, the negative opinion of others regarding our methodology, without having ever sampled our products, are also on record. I'm more than willing to stipulate that the criticisms offered by each side have been unwarranted and unnecessary.

Good luck.

Plod Boy Phil,

Feel free to argue.  I don't understand, though -- what was "neutral"? -- the bias? the pace?

I don't know, but after what I saw -- Flashback putting away Goldencents after a duel -- Hear the Ghost will deserve to be the favorite in the SA Derby -- he wasn't just the beneficiary of the pace, but I'll give Flashback a chance as the second favorite.  Both have run three races and are eligible to improve, while both have different styles.  Very exciting!

You're right, I don't have a "model" here, I'm going on what I saw and sizing it up by comparison with what happened last year, which was a very strong race.

I saw the exchange above and I respect that your "downgrade/upgrade" is just a starting point, but I think you should feel obliged to make picks/bets for the marquee races like (most) everyone else on this blog as a good exercise in both handicapping and humility.  Not making picks yet touting your site is like showing up to someone's potluck without bringing something...and then on top of it telling everyone how much better it is over at your place ;-)

Anyway, let me gently suggest that you owe it to us after the San Felipe.  You didn't handicap it, while you said that Hear the Ghost was an "obvious downgrade" and left it at that.  You seem like a more knowledgeable and experienced player than me, so I'll respect your opinions, and picks!  

Coldfacts-

The 'So Raise Yourglass' debut win on 2/16 at OP was in a achieved under a perfectly neutral scenario.

I will say that I do consider Maria's Mons mares at the top of my short list for turf dams.

Mr. Palmer has more of a proven Derby pedigree than Flashback.

Mr. Palmer was sired by Pulpit who was 4th in the Derby. Pulpit sired Derby runner–up Ice Box.  Tapit the sire of Flashback was sired by Pulpit as well and was one of the favorite’s for the Derby. Another Pulpit colt that would have been a Derby short price Derby entrant was Corinthians. He got injured and did not make the field.

Tapit has only one also ran Derby starter to date and his horses appear very soft. The Derby takes toughness.

The Dam sire of Mr. Palmer is Derby winning sire Quiet American as son of the influential Fappiano. As you might be aware Fappiano was the sire Derby and BCC winner Unbridled. Fappioano’s son have been have been classic winning sires as well as classic winning broodmare sires.

Bothe Quiet American and Unbridled sired a Derby winner and Both were also broodmare sires of Preakness winners. Cryptoclerance another son of Fappiano was the sired of a Belmont winner and was dam sire of unbeaten and now retired Algorithms and recent Risen Star winner I Struck A Nerve.

Quiet American was the dam sire of Preakness winner and BCC runner up Bernardini as well as Breeder Cup Classic winner Saint Liam. He is therefore has a better record as a broodmare sire than Mr. Greely the dam sire of Flashback.

Mr. Palmer’s dam was unraced and unraced and lightly raced mares are some of the best producers of champions and winner of Triple Crown races. The sire of his second dam is Believe It was the dam sire to Derby winner Real Quirt.

Mr. Palmer has the superior and more proven dam line. He will have no problems with the 5th quarter of the Derby. Flashback certainly has more speed but is distance challenged.

Rusty Weisner,

While I agree with your points, it is not difficult to recover from errors in a 12F race on a track the size of Belmont.

Footlick : It is not my issue, I don't have issues with Phil, he has issues with me and obviously you read what you want to read.  I'm fairly certain you're following these recent "convo" i'm having with Phil, and I'm sure you know how it all started.   The fact is, Phil is monitoring for my posts, regardless of what it is and waiting for something that he can berate me with.  I don't address him until he addresses me.  But again, you failed to see that because you didn't want to see it.

He doesn't like me because I don't like or believe in his racing flow, he can't get over it.

It's funny how he apologizes for the thread that he himself started out of nothing except his dislike for me lol.

The rider that made an error in the San Felipe was Mr. Gomez.

What were the margins between the first three past the post?

Anyone that reviews the video of the SF and does not conclude that Mr.Gomez had acres of space on the inside and did not need to go 6 wide, isn't been objective.

Please Jay Jay- you act like you are a blameless bystander.  You criticize as much as you get criticized.  Play your violin to someone who will buy the act.  

Rusty-

re: San Felipe

The track was slightly speed favoring but certainly nowhere close to being 'biased' (It was less than one standard deviation from 'zero'). The only race on the card in which the track and Flow combined to create a moderately Speed favoring scenario was the 3rd. That said, only the pacesetter BVR would be classified as worthy of a 'downgrade' from the event.

The Flow or the interaction of the split times as they relate to each other and the final time, was just plain normal.

In the future, I will use more discretion in offering 'up/downs' in an effort to not confuse. I did note your post regarding the Tampa Derby in which you made it clear you used O.F instead of perhaps the runner-up. Hopefully, that poor result was offset in some way by the solid winner I provided at GP.

JayJay-

I do not monitor for your posts. I read the posts and the information that is presented gets absorbed - call it the bane of my brain.

My dislike of you has nothing to do with your not being a subscriber. There are at least two here that have had brief samplings and chosen not to pursue. No problem. I carry on amenable interactions with both, as each has shown an ability to provide useful information and winning opinions before the race,  not afterward.

Coldfacts-

I will re-watch the SF (again), this time focusing on GoGo and the Minister.  Before doing so, I will offer that horses like Minister that rally from far back generally must have unobstructed runs or have no chance.  These are not runners capable of re-engaging if the 'train' is somehow slowed in any way.  Also,  expecting a sustained run of that nature for more than 3 to 4 furlongs is not reasonable.

PBP: If you're memory is good, then you'll remember when I inquired about RF (when no one was really paying attention to you) I asked a lot of questions, I visited your site.  I told you this is probably the closest tool that I've seen that might be good for handicapping based on splits because I've had debates in the past where people have used the splits solely to say a horse is a once in a lifetime, super horse, a beast, didn't pan out for them.

I decided not to use your tool after learning that it is purely based on numbers, that you don't take into consideration what happens in the race.  I then ended my inquiry by saying that I hope it works for you but it's not for me.  It was then you started questioning how I handicap, from handicapping based on the jockey, then the troubles horses experience during the race, both of which you disregard when doing your analysis.   You've been on me ever since, i don't mind, i find it entertaining really.  My handicapping, however you want to call it works for me.  I post my winning tickets and have been way before you started blogging here.

Footlick : I wasn't playing the violin to you, you addressed me and I replied.  Come to think of it, I remember you posting something about your last post to me,  but maybe with my reading comprehension, i misunderstood again lol.  It's funny that you post more defending Phil on this blog than posting anything informational...it's sad cause I use to enjoy your posts.

More violins from the victim.  Turning everything around and not owning up to what Jay Jay does.  Contributing to a betting driven playground full of juvenile adolescent cat fights is not my idea of a knowledgeable horse racing blog.  Reading about American racing does not interest me a whole lot.  Reading about bloodlines does.  Go ahead and keep doing what you do.  You remind the blog all the time of how much money you make.  Why change.  And keep your adolescent catty comments going too. They contribute so much.  Have a great time in the schoolyard.  It suits you.  And keep up with your violin playing.  

Plod Boy Phil,

I agree with what I consider to be valid points.

TAM got tired in the last 100 meters and unlike his previous race could not sustain his run long enough to win because he came further back because of the internal fractions.

Coldfacts-

I just watched the race again,  twice.  Do you really think that the Minister,  with the momentum he had built up in the previous 3/16th,  would have been capable of maneuvering outside the 4 and inside the 8 without crashing into the 8, the 1 and possibly the 5 in the process?  Had GoGo placed the horse 5 wide early on the turn, he'd have been truly wasting valuable ground,  rather than just losing some of the momentum the colt had built up in having to eventually turn for home.

I would not write off Goldencents too quickly as he appeared to be carrying a lot of weight when I viewed him in the post parade. He reminded me of Point Given in his Derby post Parade. Rather Heavy!

Coldfacts-

The answer to the question posed above is not really necessary as I have since seen your response to previous.  Of course,  that does not prohibit you from doing so.

Thanks.

Coldfacts:  I watched Goldencents try to hang with Shanghai Bobby.  That was all I needed to see.  He didn't get beat, he got beat down.  Set relatively soft splits and was just blown away by the better horse.  I know they have all matured since but no way he's better than Bobby.  Hence, no way he's better than alot of these.

Coldfacts-

Interesting that you bring up Point Given. I was sitting on the clubhouse turn that year and recall watching and listening to the herd of 20 when they came barreling past us.  That Derby was a good example of the things that can happen to truly gifted animals in the Derby.  For whatever reason,  PG was unusually unsettled in the early running.  Stevens,  despite his undeniable gifts as a rider, was not capable of controlling the beast, but then who at 116 lbs really is able to dictate strategy to headstrong beast weighing 10 times more.  I was also present in his subsequent wins in Baltimore and Elmont.

Just checking, is Hear the Ghost an obvious downgrade next out?

Is itsmyluckyday also an obvious downgrade?

Plod Boy Phil,

That's funny.  I was at those two races, too.  Those were my first Triple Crown events.  The Belmont was the first Pick 4 (my favorite) I ever won.  It paid well because one of the legs was won on the lead by...Christophe Clement's Forbidden Apple at 8-1 after the favorite King Cugat got bottled up in the stretch.  Point Given was the best Triple Crown candidate I think I've seen. Fond memories!

FA:

I am guessing neutral on both.

Forbidden Apple -

HtG: Neutral grade for the SF,  thus he's been elevated to 'just a horse' status (neutral) for his next race.

Itsmyluckyday: was upgraded here on this blog going into the his win in the Holy Bull. RF theory dictates he'll maintain the regular upgrade as his win in that 'neutral' race requires so. That said,  time tends to minimize the value of the 'neutral or better winner' angle we like.

While we're patting ourselves on the back,  our original stance on the BCJ has not proven incorrect. The downgraded closers from the race have all since fallen by the wayside,  with the exception of Power Broker who has yet to return. Those clinging to the 7f win by Dynamic Sky at 3/5 and the Alw1x win by Capo B at 6/5, as proof of us being 'wrong' simply do not get it.  As for the upgrade of the 'vs Zip Winner' SB, his performance in the Holy Bull was very good considering he was giving up 'recency' to the winner.  I'll deal with him when I see the complete PPs,  as the 'VZW' is a volatile sort and deserves special consideration.

Enjoy the celebration and winnings from HtG, though it's always nice when a winner acts as if they've been there before.

Good luck.

The e extract below contains justifications for proposed litigation against the Board of the Breeders Cup over its Lasix policy. This is utterly disgraceful.

“In the Feb. 27 letter threatening litigation, the Wests say that Salix is the most effective treatment for exercise-induced pulmonary hemorrhage and requiring horses to race without it would put their health in danger, which in turn, would create financial hardship for owners.”

There are racing jurisdictions that do not allow the use of race day medication. Are the Wests and others inferring that the owners of those horses from those jurisdictions are putting them at risk? Are there reports of major financial losses being filed by owners racing in these jurisdictions?

Without drugs our horses cannot remain healthy when racing!

Previously the rampant use of steroids on yearlings passing through sale rings drove away foreign buyers because of what became known as American Shrinking Horses. As soon as those yearlings left the shores of the US their body masses disappeared rapidly. Regulations were passed against steroids use.

Did owners and trainers complain?

Horses have no control over what drugs are pumped into their bodies and the justification for same.  

What an unfortunate reality they face!

1:08-

The HB was 'neutral', as you know, but both the winner and the runner-up were special cases going in.  The above response to FA's celebration on my 'star' may clarify.

Rusty:

Smarty Jones and Barbaro.

Coldfacts:

Couldn't agree more on the PED's.  What was Frankel running on?

Mike:

Does it just irk you that Paynter is back in Baffert's barn?  LOL

Rusty-

I've seen a number of Derbys and Belmonts,  though none since Afleet Alex.

The most memorable sequence was probably in Charismatic's year,  when I went to see Cat Thief (my favorite that year) in the Florida Derby and to Santa Anita for no particular reason other than the fun of it.  As it turns out, I saw the eventual Derby winner's last four races ever, including a very pricey 3rd floor finish line seat at CD.  I was very unhappy with my Belmont seat,  literally the first row off the track about 5o yds past the line.  There was no view of the race or the big screen for that matter. Of course, the events that transpired as the Belmont neared completion made for a scene I'll never forget.

Phil -

Last Kentucky Derby winner who also won the Remsen S at 2 -

Thunder Gulch - 1994

Last Kentucky Derby winner who also won the Kentucky Jockey Club S at 2 -

Super Saver - 2009

Every 2yo stakes race taken individually have a poor record of predicting Kentucky Derby winners. Your point was?

1:08 and change,

“He didn't get beat, he got beat down”

How often is the winner of a 51/2F MSW race in its only start, shipped from CA to take on a Graded Stakes winner in a G1?

He finished second and performed beyond expectation. Goldencents should be judge properly for his effort.!

Plod Boy phil,

No celebration or ill feelings at all from me. Why do you continue to talk down to everyone?

Pedigree Ann-

No point other than to give you an opportunity to impress.

Looks like a win win.

Rusty -

I'm guessing you are a regular at the Preakness ?

FA -

Excuse me?

I'd already posted a neutral rating for the race as well as one additional post reiterating the point before you chimed in today.

Are you trying to convince me that your last "obvious DG of Htg, etc", wasn't laden with an extra helping of smack?

Please.

Graded Stakes Winner... What the hell does that mean anyway?  If there is nobody in the race then big deal if the race was Graded.

I am judging him on his effort.  Goldencents was shellacked by Bobby.  He's a good miler period.  Next

Violence travels cross country after only two races and destroys a field of promising west coasters.  Oh wait, he was able to do that because he was a GRADED STAKES WINNER, beating the likes of who in the NASHUA?

I mean he walked the dog in hte Champagne on the front end and still got smoked!  23 2/5 47 2/5 and then eats dirt the rest of the way down the lane.  Then goes to the bull ring and wins.  Throw that one out.  Don't get me wrong, I actually like the horse.  He's got heart.  He's just carrying the O'Neill high expectations set by IHA last year.

Footlick : I never claimed to be the expert.  I like reading people's posts on here, but not yours anymore, because all your posts have nothing to do with horse racing anymore, just cheerleading stuff.    I'll continue to post my winning big payout tickets, you can look at it or not, does not matter to me.

I wonder what you'll do when my "convo" with PBP dies down.  Seems it's the highlight of your day lol :)

Luckily, there's quite a few others that actually posts informational stuff that's quite interesting.  PBP of course tries to question everything lol.

This blog was much more fun when Jason Shandler was here. I guess those were the good old days, before the horse flow came to town. You continue to talk down to people for some reason. Your status as a friendly blogger has just been downgraded.

Get your own material JayJay.  Jason used to call you a cheerleader all the time.  Find an original thought.  Why would you think I would look at your facebook post when there is no proof that the ticket is yours?  Do you really not comprehend that anyone can post a picture of a ticket?  Since Jason's blog you have bragged at how much money you make.  On one hand you say you are not an expert and then on the other hand you are telling everyone how much more money you make than others on the blog.  You trashtalk about people and that is supposed to be fine, but when someone calls you out, you blame the other people.  It is never JayJay's fault.  I have a sad life indeed if any comment that you make would be a highlight.  Luckily, nothing you say is a highlight.  I'm just calling you out for what you are.  I defended you when Jason picked on you.  Sad that he could see something that it has taken a long time for me to realize.  Good luck.  I hope you get all the accolades on this blog that you deserve.  As far as knowledge, there are a few people here that I respect.  But otherwise, there is alot more knowledge elsewhere, which is why I do not comment here about horses any longer.  I know you think it is because I am here just to see what you write.  But the reality is, I have other outlets for thoroughbred knowledge that ring much truer.  Good luck, JayJay.

Footlick : Thanks, I always need luck.  This is the only blog I go to, sometimes I comment on Haskn's but you're in luck, cause you won't see me at other blogs.  There's plenty of people here that knows a lot about horses, not just the game or how they play but really knows about horses and those are the ones I like to read.

FA : lol on the downgrade, funny how no one else notices that.

For me,  I think it comes down to the simple fact that I hate smiley faces.  Then again, like Kramer, I'm also afraid of clowns.

:) Don't look in the mirror :)

Then that is lucky for me.  As far as not noticing, someone can notice and not rise to more bait.  Just more trashtalk, JayJay.  Always the need to diminish to make yourself look better.  I just needed to let you know that you do not fool me at all.  I know exactly what you are all about.  Good luck again.  No ill will, as that brings bad karma.  But, I don't have to let anyone think they are puling the wool over my eyes either.  BTW, plenty of people know about horses. An individual knows about them.  And, as I said, there are a few I respect.  But, most here know about betting horses, which is appropriate since this is a blog about betting and posting winning tickets.

Footlick :  lol, okay already...I get it, you now know what type of person I am, you realize it now.  Not sure why you're still posting to me lol.   Hope you don't take this blog seriously that you lose sleep because you're wondering what I'm posting here about Phil :)   Thanks again for the good luck, I can always use them as I'm a guessdicapper.  

There's only a handful that actually knows horses imo, I don't have to go anywhere as the information I read from here are good enough to make me research and learn things on my own.  Alright, going to wander off to Haskin's blog, I see he's got a new derby dozen.

Forbidden Apple -

As recently as Feb 25th, a Derby top 12 list you provided on a SH blog did not feature Hear the Ghost. Why so?

1:08 and change

What irk's me more is individuals that think they wrote the book on racing.

To the coldcuts.....your delight of flashback losing sa derby is pretty typical........but, who said the horse has run fast? Flashback hasnt run close at all to what it takes to win the derby....93 beyer...........who doesnt know this? You are not breaking any news.......he has run 3 times....all about 7 lengths too slow, beyer wise......your contrarian stuff should be picking on verrazzano.....its what you do......we get it......flashback isnt in the top 10 of horses top beyers.....  that pace duel, may have cost him.....running out of time.....I KNOW horses.....hes a good one.......he will improve alot.....everybody here knows his top beyer isnt good enough.......

Plod Boy Phil

Then you must be afraid of Shandler.

mary...flashback ran very fast early....but i meant a 93 isnt close to what he needs......he will get there.....wish he had 2 more preps instead of 1......this is one good horse....

Footlick

I respect your comments,think you're a class act.

I've read Jay Jay's comments for quite sometime and he makes many great points also. Unlike some on here he doesn't go with which the wind takes him.

plod.....leave the baby alone please.........funny....his gf on face book looks alot like kate upton.....must be true, theres a pic.....

some posts are just stupid.....coldcuts uses example of premeire peg race was faster pace.....then at the end, mentions the winner flew by at the end.............what a dunce!

the guy likes 28 horses! Coldcuts! tell us all your top 2 picks for the derby.......pretty simple.......#1________  #2_________ then its on record.......or do you just revel in other peoples horses getting beat?...You even pick on ranags horse who wins........tell us top 2 and we will see........want me to tell your past derby picks that i remember? pretty embarrassing........

Mike.......i wish i could tell you who i am.................ive made a living, thru hard work, hours of studying, i only post negative things to dumb posts, wrong info, people who think they are some kinda experts, when they arent......think of it as a public service.......................the preceding comment was the posters opinion, and does not reflect in any ways, THE BLOOD HORSE . com

by the way.....I've STRUCK A NERVE just had surgery....he will be able to come back in about 6 months........my horse #2 had same injury...left sesamoid.....hes beginning to jog....going back to track next month......not the worst injury to have...they can tell during surgery if tendon damage ligments were not injured bad....................youll see this horse again.....

Are there any lessons to be learned from the article on Purple Egg ?

I wish I could tell, too. Not really. It's our little secret. Check that article about your older horse. I left a "hi".

I took Hear the Ghost off from my Derby Dozen list for lack of racing. For the same reason I just dropped Fortify to the bottom of my list, no races. The only reason I chimed in earlier today was because I was still thinking back to the San Pedro. To me Hear the Ghost was closing well against a true sprinter when he is bred for distance. My eyes told me that Hear the Ghost was a horse to watch for next out.

Oh darn, awaiting moderation.

KY VET : No wonder you've been quiet today, you've been checking my FB.  Seriously, do you think Baffert will slow down Flashback ??  If anything, I think he'll put nitrous on him and run the others to the ground.  I still don't see how or why you say he's a good horse.  I have no opinion on him at all, just want to know why YOU think he's a good horse.  What did you see that no one else did ?  I believe the only thing will change is Bejarano will be on him when he runs in the SA derby.

Oh and we get it man, you don't like Coldfacts.  I don't understand why you keep on and on and on and on and on about his posts.  Don't read it!

Mike : Thanks, I had practice and lots of them against Jason lol.

Also, I have nothing against your flow or your upgrades and downgrades. I simply would never pay money for someone else to handicap a race for me.

I just realized that Hear the Ghost was bred by Lazy F Ranch, same connections as Forego. I always wondered why it was named a lazy ranch. Maybe becasue they have so much money and they never had to work a day in their lives.

Ky Vet,

Thanks for the update on ISAN. Really too bad he has to miss the party but we may see down the road.

Mike: are you suggesting I think I wrote the book on the game?

On and on and on. Oh the irony.

Thanks Mike.  You have always worn your heart on your sleeve and that is admirable.  Just came back to thank you.  Keep up the good work with the horse charities and rescues.  Too many fakes on here anymore.  I'll go back to European blogs.  Quicksand has a way of keeping you places you know you don't belong.  Good luck to you.

Why am I not surprised that my post citing the splits in the 2011 San Felipe was only misunderstood by Mr. SOS.

The jockeys that were on the  three horses engaged the crazy pace were Rosario, Gomez and Nakatani. These are all top class riders that those criticizing Mr. Leparoux  would have preferred.

I did nothing to do with the horse that won.

"I do not feel obliged to believe that the same God who has endowed us with sense, reason, and intellect has intended us to forgo their use."

GALILEO GALILEI

Mr. Haskin in a recent Blog titled ‘Beware the Second Wave’ cited and commented on 20 horses. If that number is added to his Derby Dozen he would have commented on 32 horses.

I am therefore marginally behind with my 28.

“I have never met a man so ignorant that I couldn't learn something from him.”

The above is one of GALILEO GALILEI’s quotes.

If he were alive I would gladly direct him to such a man.

list your top 2! it figures! you wont...............your 5th grade education, and youre trying to put down someone................priceless.....

Horse #1 galloping now.....training better than last year....but he hasnt worked yet..............trainers!!!!!!!

108 and change

I'm suggesting many on here are intoxicated with their own voice.

I'll let ya know when he does.

Forbidden Apple-

I thought that I read that was the reason for HtG not being on your list. Interesting how both Uncaptured, off since forever when the winner of a dead race, and Frac Daddy, off since the non-effort in the HB remained.  Just observations.

GL

KY Vet

Ok

Footlick

Hope you post here anyway.

LOL, there's he goes moving on to Forbidden Apple.  Out of the blue, he's on FA about HtG.  Who the heck cares if he was on his list or not ??  Why's that so important to even mention ?    After FA's post of his downgrade for the "friendly blogger" status, he started looking for things to attack him.   This guy just can't help it.

Oh, I forgot about the backup cheerleader, I thought he went with Footlick lol.

I thought Forbidden Apple is a woman.  I suppose it shouldn't matter.

?

Jay Jay

When I was in Kentucky over the weekend, visited someone respected and revered that agreed that Shandler was poison to Bloodhorse.

You know yourself he couldn't handle anyone with a differing opinion from his own.

Ooops, if FA is a woman, my apologies.

Mike, If you have time, would you read the Afleet Alex thread at h r n, please?

My niece uses LOL alot. I overlook it, she's young.

Mike : Yep, agreed.  Except for a very few bloggers, I think this blog has become much more interesting and friendly.  I can't "get over it!" hehe.

BTW, totally agree with Footlick, you do great work with the horses.

Fugue-

I assume you saw the Razorback Handicap.  Some time back,  I asked a general queston about horses pawing at the ground, as Zenyatta did all the time.  I had read that t was a sign of a confident horses,  signaling eagerness.  Over the years, I have seen it vaery rarely but will make a small win bet on the horse if I can get it in. The lone respondant, Sceptere, seemed to indicate that it was nothing more than the horse being unhappy with being restrained in some way (sounds like the same thing to me).  In any event,  with no betting interest, I happened to see the 1 horse, Golden Ron, pawing with his front right as the loading process began.  I quickly made a token win bet as he was 26-1.  He was beaten a head.

As with most of my posts, this one is of little value.  Just an observation.

Did you see it ?

Fugue-

Please do not consider the previous assumption and question as me 'talking down' to you.

It’s impossible to put down someone that is already down.

However, there is no man too low down that the cure for his condition does not lie within himself

That stated, the choice to remain 'Stuck On Stupid' is exclusively your.

Jay Jay

You're right

JayJay,

FA is male.

Jay Jay

Thanks for your comment.

Mary

I'm going to check it out.

Coldfacts-

Don't stress about VET,  really.

I did see that! I didn't know what to think. It looks cool when they do that. He didn't look stressed or anything. I didn't notice his ears, that might tell us something.

Najjaar didn't close at all. The top four out of the gate were  the first to the line. Alternation didn't break, that didn't help. If his connections have confidence to bring him back at that level I'll give him another shot, in some fashion.

Mary

I read the comment Alex made regarding being worried. What do you think? Have you found out anything?

Fugue -

Cool - figured you had.

I read thabout this body language sign a long time ago in - well before Zenyatta made it a part of her normal post parade behaviour. Considering her domination over those she faced, I'm still of the opinion that's it a rare (for wing-free horses anyway) but positive indicator of a strong performance. The lone drawback is the short period of time avaiable to act on it.

FYI,  the race came back neutral for us.

Thanks.

I was wondering,neutral. Thanks.

Not Alex, Mike. Ruffian, but no, I don't know any more than what's at that thread. Thanks for reading it.

Mary

I also read Ruffian's comment.

Also hoping Laz is ok.

Forbidden Apple is a man that would love to send some smack at KY Vet if he ever steps foot in Saratoga Racecourse in July/August.

Plod Boy Phil,

Since you have time to analyze my KY Derby Dozen, maybe you should go back and watch the San Pedro again. You might learn something from a meaningless sprint stakes. Frac Daddy has always been on my list along with Fortify because I have an emotional attachment to both. Happy now? Uncaptured made the list one week when I thought he was about to race, he is off my radar period. Even when I was 12 years old, I never let anyone handicap a race for me. The only flow I pay attention to is the large pond at Yaddo.

Vet:

I will boldly post my top five, lol (yes, that is a lol and I am not an adolescent).

1. Itsmyluckyday

2. Orb

3. Superninetynine

4. Hear the Ghost

5. Vyjack

1:08 and change,

Barbaro, maybe, or Afleet Alex, but I never saw either of them in person.  Smarty Jones just couldn't get the distance.  That was the last TC race I was at, his Belmont.  I didn't have Birdstone (seems like an obvious pick now), but made $500 selling two tickets -- that was when those tickets were still $10 or something.  If (when) I win (big) on the Kentucky Derby I will treat myself to a Preakness.

Anyone playing Oaklawn this Saturday?  The weather will be nice.  I'm going to live races at Laurel and would love to bet them, but it looks like rain, and that, along with what is probably a lousy, chalky card will guarantee a losing day -- my alternate is Gulfstream, where the weather will also be nice.

Fugue for Tinhorns,

I bet a plodding horse like that this past weekend:  I put Eton Blue under Verrazano; thought he had a chance to collect the garbage in a bigger field on a trickier track.

I've only bet an Oaklawn card once, and isolated bets on last year's Rebel and Arkansas Derby, but never saw any chance for closers there.  Do you bet there regularly? -- I'll be betting at least the second half of the card Saturday.

Rusty:

Couldn't get the distance?  He went sub 1:36 for the mile and almost 2:00 flat for the mile and a quarter.  Yes he plodded home the last half but how many horses ever could do what he did?  Maybe one.

My KY Derby Dozen list as of March 12, if you want to study it or make any comments.

1)ITSMYLUCKYDAY 2)HEAR THE GHOST 3)ORB 4)Flashback 5)Shanghai Bobby 6)Revolutionary 7)Super Ninety Nine 8)Verrazano 9)Vyjack 10)Fortify 11)Treasury Bill 12)Frac Daddy

1:08-

I am in complete agreement with you on Smarty Jones - his Belmont was simply spectacular. I was not a fan of his until then. He took repeated challenges and repelled all but the last one.

...6-12

6. Verrazano

7. Code West

8. Curly Top

9. Footbridge

10. Java's War

11. Gunderman

12. Departing

Revolutionary, Palace Malice, Delhomme, Flashback, Shaghai Bobby, War Academy all on the outside looking in.

Yes Plod,

Just watched it again.  Really wish he would have won the TC.

1:08 and change,

So'd Point Given.  And he ran a second faster...and won.

I don't have a head for times, so I looked that one up.  It's the final result and the margin I remember, from up close.

Good call.  Point Given was solid.  Just don't mention his trainer on here. LOL

Wonder why coldcuts wont post top 2........seems to be writing fortune cookie posts now....

108.....dont think any of your top 5 has a chance......not being mean....just saying.....

Horses paw at the ground because they are anxious....they do it when they see the groom bringing the feed....they do it when a leg hurts(like horse #2)...they do it when they want to race.......means as much as pooping before entering gate.......ive head that angle before too.......

That's what the lists are there for - commentary, be it good, bad, or VET style.  Otherwise,  why post them ?

No prob VET.  Still alot to unfold.

I meant to have Oxbow in my 6-12 range.  Sorry Coach, will move Footbridge out til he breaks his maiden.

Any word on what happened to Bradester or Demonic?

hey....beyer figs have verrazzano 101.....flashback 92........brisnet has verr..100 flash 99........which ones are right?  thoughts?

That settles it - thanks VET.

Rusty

No, I don't play there much, just stakes races. I do have a vested interest in Treasury Bill as I have him in Book 2 exactas. The Rebel field will offer a good handicapping challenge as well as value. Good luck.

KY VET

  Isn't it obvious which one is correct?

Treasury Bill should get a good pace to run at. I think he can catch and beat super Ninety Nine.

The brisnet figure that makes Flashback and Hear The Ghost look better. KY? Isn't that your right answer?

Hear The Ghost was gelded during the few weeks between his maiden win and the San Pedro.  First race after gelding can result in a win, but just saying that wasn't much time in between races and having had surgery.

1:08 and change;

Bradester is being given some time off and is out of training. Demonic missed the San Felipe Stakes with a foot bruise, but may be back in time for the Santa Anita Derby.

www.drf.com/.../santa-anita-demonic-still-possible-santa-anita-derby

-Keelerman

Keel:

Thank you sir.

Forbidden Apple,

I just took a look at how Oaklawn played Saturday and I don't think any horses won coming far off the pace, while a couple of favorites lost trying to do that.  Most of the winners, including 50-1 and 17-1 longshots, were winning on the lead or just off the pace, and there were races where they went 1-2 or even 1-2-3-4.

I am hoping to have an angle for beating Super99 with the large field and the terrible odds, even though last two years I've bet on Baffert's speed.  But it might be hard to come off the pace.

Rusty:

Potential pace meltdown in Rebel.  Not sold on Treasury Bill being a two turn horse yet but looks like the play in here.

We recorded one severely speed favoring day at Oaklawn last week -it was not Saturday.  Since 2/21, OP has had three notable Closer tracks and no other notable speed biased surfaces.

Will be on Oxbow as well.

1:08 and change,

Thanks.  I'll keep an eye open to playing it that way, too, but it looks hard to close and this field is only 11 -- they were saying 14 before.  I will take a good look at both those horses -- that's two of you on Treasury Bill.

Plod Boy Phil,

Which day was it?  

Thursday

I don't like Treasury Bill at all on top.  I don't like horses that are always last at the first call (same goes for longshot Stormy Holiday), not on this track, with the short stretch.  And Super99 beat Shakin' It Up, he didn't chase him.  I categorically refuse to bet on Delhomme on top coming out of that race and off the layoff; maybe with that name he could run in Lousiana, though.

I don't know what to think about Oxbow not putting them away, but he seems fast enough early to contend.  Den's Legacy is fast enough early, too, and always coming late but doesn't look like a winner.

I'm not holding the post against Super99; that was Bodemeister's last year here.

As far as longhots go, the only one I like is Carve, after the claim and beating Title Contender (I assume the trainer change on that one isn't a good sign).  It's hard to forgive both Will Take Charge and Texas Bling for doing badly in the slop, and they seem evenly matched for a lower class.  

I don't see where the pace challenge to Super99 is supposed to come from.  

Rusty:

Seriously?

I seem to recall Title Contender (half brother to Super 99, LOL) blazing the opening quarter and half in some race called the Breeder's Cup Juvenile.

The trainer change on Title Cont is not that big a deal to me. The Wests have alot of good 3yos and use several trainers. After T Bills last race Ellis said the Rebel was probable. Notice they both ran 2/17. Shipped Title in, race over the track, off a layoff, results good, leave him out here. Looks like a strong entry, a closer and speed, not cheap speed you know is going to quit. Price will suffer.

All that being said I am not sure who my key horse is yet.

Don't have any doubt T Bill can get two turns. Super 99 will get cooked. Look for Texas Bling to run well.

Plod...he asked you the day......not the time of race for your tampa horse......lol

yes mary....i predicted 99 beyer for verr. and 98 for flash....but flash gets 98+ for duel......so, im leaning towards brisnet....remember, im the one who liked that extra gear on htg....nice horse........think that was his best.....we will see....

KY VET

   You always think it was their best and they peaked already unless you have a futures wager on them !!!! Yes, you are correct, Brisnet won. What's a point or two here or there, nothing, but 92 and 93 was ridiculous. 96 would have been minimum.  

if you can tell me delhomme won win......the treasury bill looks good in that race.....actually might bet this one pretty heavy....wp

dr.....tell me after you see a horse improve....that i said peaked.....im not wrong yet......ill even tell you treasury bill will fire big...1st or 2nd, then run worse in last prep......how bout that? i can see the future!

who do you like dr?

Rusty Weisner,

Thank you for the information on Oaklawn, but I'm not worried about other pace. I think Title Contender, Oxbow, and Delhomme will all be near the lead. Plus their are a few horses in the race that I have not seen before.  Treasury Bill is far from a killer, he gots the nod in a wide open race.

Dr Drunkinbum,

You hit the nail directly on the head. KY Vet only notices things that are in his favor. Three races for Hear the Ghost and he peaked. Three races for Flashback and a monster performance is coming. The guy is confusing himself lately and he only picks the chalk in these prep races. A 93 beyer is too slow for one horse, but a 100+ beyer is too fast for another.

My play will be Will Take Charge, hopefully he'll be sitting just off the pace, like Jon Kourt at Oaklawn.  If it rains, S99 will probably run away again.

apple....wait and see if im right.....then you can chastise me.....there is a big diff. in the 2 horses........

who was the guy that was posting how good heartheghost was? me!

Pete : Are you covering any of the preps this weekend in the smart plays ?  If not, I'll just go with KY VET's pick I'm still learning morse code though, maybe I"ll figure out who he really likes by Friday, unless Flashback is running this weekend.

Oops, just one prep, the Rebel.  I thought the Spiral was this weekend as well.

Dr Drunkinbum

How's everything going with you?

KY VET

   I'm waiting for the odds for the Rebel, and then I'll check the physicality pre-race and the pools but I am leaning toward Carving WPS with more on the show. I don't think I'm going exotics in this one, just wps and learn from it for the big preps. There are a few that I think are Derby material if they run well here.

Mike Relva

   Good enough, thanks. Your last farm visit sounded like a really good one.

Forbidden Apple

   My horse the Beyer was just right, your horse too slow, the winner peaked, I told you. 97 is no good, your 98- he peaked, my 98- he's just getting stsrted. Back To The Futures.

I meant Carve in the Rebel, not Carving. Or is it Carver? Or Carved?

Dr. D !  I just got done posting on Haskin's blog and was asking him about Carve and I switched back here and see you also like him.  He's undefeated, beat Title Contender.  Don't think he's got the distance pedigree but for the Rebel, I think he might surprise at good odds.

Hey! Wanna see something impressive? todays race 6 at fg......3/13......2nd out for ABSTRACTION......screaming to run!.......is he as good as he looks?

JayJay

   He has the distance pedigree. The odds will be interesting. I'd put his ML at 6-1 or 8-1 if I was doing it. Fifth choice in the wagering. Super Ninety Nine, 8-5. Delhomme at 2-1 or 5-2.

KY VET

   Yep, that's a good looking horse. He should do well.

How convenient that Rudy Rodriguez gets his suspension lifted two days before the Wood Memorial. The initial forty day suspension seems harsh in my opinion. Banamine is a legal pain reliever. I've known it to be used when a horse is tying up or having signs of colic. So in this case it seems like an overage that was administered close to race day. Is this his first suspension?

KY VEt,

The problem I have is that you write about horses peaking like you truely know. You are guessing, just like the rest of us. Unless you take out a trainers license and become the trainer of Hear the Ghost, I can not listen to one word you say.

The winner of the Rebel Stakes is a no brainer.  Just analyze two races contested at Belmont Park and the winner will be obvious:

Oct. 6th   2012 – (Gl) 8F: 22.55, 47.45, 1:11.21, 1:35.55

Oct. 13th 2012 – (MSW) 8F: 22.55, 47.10, 1:10.57, 1:35.22

If the winner of the above Gl was in the Rebel he would be the overwhelming favorite.

A Maiden ran faster than the G1 winner a week later.  

Super99 ran two fast races in a row with beyers of 100 and 101. He must have peaked already, scratch him off as a true competitor.

Coldfacts,

So you like Delhomme?

Coldfacts,

More reason for me to bet against Delhomme.  He beat Long River, who's gone on to do nothing, in that race.  We'll see, though.

1:08 and change,

Yes, seriously. I looked at Delhomme's PP's just now and I guess Delhomme might try, but I don't see others.  

1:08 and change,

Oh, Title Contender.  You're right, thanks.

Coldcuts:  

What you fail to realize is that Delhomme set the walk the dog fractions for the quarter and half in that race.  Goldencents set them in the other race and Bobby still blew past him.  Delhomme will be a play in Ark Derby but not here.  Will be bet down too much.  But go ahead please and add more $$$ to his win pool.

Super99 has these in-over their heads,fast/wet doesn't matter. He can also rate behind solid splits and kick-away like he did in his prior start before the Southwest.I think he sits behind the rabbit(Title Contender) and opens-up down the lane.

Oxbow,Treasury Bill and Den's Legacy make the most sense underneath. Delhomme will chase-n-fade in his comeback.The rest have no shot on paper.

Just my opinion..

Coldfacts,

Incognito should break his maiden on saturday, race 6 at the Big A.

Santa Margarita: Ex. box Snow Fall/Joyful Victory

I'll try to beat Joyful Victory with Snow Fall, a horse that is so well bred for turf. She runs better on dirt and with blinkers on, she's worth a wager.

San Luis Rey: Ex. box Bright Thought/Slim Shadey

I'll try to beat the chalk with Bright Thought, a horse that is stepping way up in class. He ran a mile in 1:33 3/5 and a 1 1/4 in 1:57 4/5, could go wire to wire.

Hard Buns also looks interesting in Race 4 with Gary Stevens up.

Carlos in Cali,

That's extactly the way I visualize it.

The only difference is I see is including Carve up there among them, but I think everyone else will, too, and odds are not going to be great.  The only real longshot I see possibly hitting the board is Texas Bling -- I like it that he ran two entirely different races in the two before the Southwest slop.  I think bettors will prefer Treasury Bill to Delhomme, so if you like Delhomme off the layoff and out of negative key races, you will get odds.

I am playing this race in a multi-race bet, either a Pick 3 or 4, and I can't find anyone I like to beat Super99.  I don't like Treasury Bill's chance to win unless he changes his style, and he's never run with a high figure.  I'm very tempted to toss Oxbow; he's not quick and couldn't beat them to the turn in his last and I'll take a stab that that Fairgrounds race was weak; we'll have a better idea after he runs.

If I make a vertical exotic on this I'll probably try:

Super99 Carve exacta

Super99 trifectas over Carve, Den's Legacy and Treasury Bill.

I'll single Super99 in a pick 3.  I don't think I'm willing to single him in a Pick 4, unless it's a cheap one.

On to other races...

VET:

Abstraction has got beast written all over him.  Impressive as they come.  And especially because he is out of one of my favorite pitcher's of all time.  Joaquin.

Rebel Stakes: Delholme stalks the pace, kicks on at the head of the stretch and prevails over the hard charging pair, Treasury Bill and Dens Legacy. Title Contender and Will Take Charge will likely knock out Super Ninety Nine and Oxbow here.  

1:08-

The big question is whether Abstraction could be Carve.  After all, the latter is undefeated....

No surprise, Ranagulzion pick's another Pletcher horse on top.

Remsen   2012 – (Gl) 9F: 23.99, 48.07, 1:12.54, 1:37.45

Withers 2013 – (Gll) 8.5F: 24.22, 48.18, 1:12.49, 1:38.01

Gotham 2013 – (Gll) 8.5F: 24.16 48.166 1:12.72, 1:37.74

Delhomme as 2YO ran 1:35.22 for 8F. He set fractions in the Remsen that have turned out to be faster than those recorded by 3YOs in both the Withers and Gotham.

If either Vyjack or Revolutionary were in the Rebel they would be favorites.

Delhomme  is a very big, fast colt that gotten additional time to grow into his large frame. He has already gone 9F and will come back bigger and stronger. S99 will be not be able to dismiss him as did others if the Southwest. He has to be the colt to beat.

Plod:

I will play Carve underneath.  I don't think he's at the level to win with these but he is nicely improving.  Starting to like Oxbow even more.  Think he'll sit off of it and close strong.  My only worry is the Coach.

re: Carve

I was being facetious - giving him a slightly better chance than O.F. in the Tam Derby.

I like Que Posse in the 11th race at Oaklawn Saturday, maybe enough to single.  Competitive with sprint stakes winners on this circuit.  Big enough field with enough pace for him to reel in Gentleman's bet.  There are a couple of seemingly washed up former 3-yo prospects here, Jake Mo and Right to Vote. Que Posse, Gentleman's Bet, Okie Tuff I'll consider possible winners here.

Race 9 (Azeri G3) makes the late Pick 3 & 4 unappealing.  My Miss Aurelia comes back at a lower class after a long layoff, but she did easily that last year. I don't know if I like the chances of Songs & Sonnets or Don't Tell Sophia to steal it enough to put them on tickets.

That leaves me the 8th race to try to beat a favorite, in this case Only in America.  I'll try him, Run Hide, and Jackson Action so far.

Apple....when have i been wrong? on the peaked thing....i tried to tell pete on the capo blog.....i said no! dont bet sky commander.....whered he finish? then i tried to tell pete again on the big cap blog....no!no!no! dont bet call to serve!......these were horses that looked great on paper, went off form......look, no one is always right........but yes....super99 peaked so has oxbow...I KNOW WHAT IM DOING!.....of course no credit given to 2 horses that ran really bad...........

THANK YOU JESUS!!!!!! GOMEZ TO RIDE FLASHBACK!!!!!!!!

1:08 and change,

Be careful what you wish for.

It appears your alliance with the Kentucky Clown has damaged your brain.

You able to accurately predict that a colt will not perform in one race and show up in another.

Abstraction appears to be a very nice colt.

His dam sire has been the dam sire of some really good horses i.e., Bernardini and

Exacts Box- Delhomme and Carve

Ranagulzion,

Abstraction appears to be a very nice colt.

His dam sire Quiet American was the dam sire of Bernardini and Saint Liam.

He can be added to the list of talented colts that are likely to show up in the LA Derby.

Do you think he is affected by the Late Development Syndrome or can he make the Derby?

Ky Vet said Bodemeister had peaked 2-races before the Ky Derby... I told him he was crazy,he would improve big-time.

Same thing with Super99,since going 2-turns he has improved and won easily.. there's more in the tank. Watch,learn!

Coldcuts: It's called handicapping... please keep playing every horse out there on exactly what they have done in the past.

Coldcuts:  Stick to breeding, I'll stick to picking winners.

And another comment for cuts... Pletcher horses regularly peek at two rather than three.  It's a COLD FACT.  

My big colt Footbridge is entered in an 8F, MSW at Santa Anita on Sunday.  In his three previous starts he has been beaten by colts from Mr. Baffert’s stable.   Well he faces the same challenge as there are two horses from Mr. Baffert’s stable in the field. Mr. Gomez has retained the ride and nothing has really changed.

Will he be fourth time lucky? Probably

Why is it so hard to accept that some horses can run well and even improve after running two good races. I am not one that loves the claiming game. I like to play stakes horses that are more consistent. Your theory will be proved wrong when Itsmyluckyday wins the FL Derby. And I see no reason why Super99 is just going to fall apart and run like a turtle. The same goes for Hear the Ghost, one race and now he is toast. I don't think so. Flashback however did catch a break by landing Gomez, he needs all the help he can get.

It's nice to have pets that watches everything I do.   All they do is sit in front of the monitor and watches what I type, funny little things, they're very entertaining... lol

Anyway, Flashback suddenly looks good getting Gomez, still not betting him though.   I'm glad I didn't put money on him in the KDFW, it's do or die for him to hit the board in the SA Derb, otherwise he's not going to the dance.  He'll have to "peak" to hit the board at 9Fs, I think.

Apple....i said itsmyluckyday will not win the derby....the kentucky derby........wasnt talking about fl. derby was i.......im not worried about that horse........i dont blame you for liking those horses....i was a beginner once.....you just like horses that ran great...you dont understand why they lose......i do........let me ask you....what did The factor do after those big races....how bout secret circle?  eskanderia? on and on....i can keep going all day...............how about this? tell me two horses that ran over 100 beyer in jan, that won the derby.....every year there is a top horse.......im waiting.........just give me two..........that were sharp in jan...................watch and learn....

Not many people like horses that run last and can't get out of their own way. I liked Itsmyluckyday before he won the Holy Bull. And I liked Hear the Ghost before he won the San Felipe. Did people like Secretariat because he ran poorly? Of course some horses go off form or are injured, that's part of the game. And then other horses run hard every race, even when they don't win. I think you liked Flashback when he was 2/2. Watch your own money flow down the drain. Good luck with the favorites this weekend. I used to pay some attention to your comments. Lately you are confusing yourself. Your handicapping skills have recently been downgraded.

KY, Two of your examples had injuries, but I'm not in that thing with your proving your point, just that those two, Eskendereya and Secret Circle, aren't good examples, if you mean horses going off form. The Factor had throat surgery in April of 2011, and as you know, he was a sprinter.

I have a word for the Rebel, which I found tough, for me. It should have been easy at first glance. Here are my top four since I said I'd do the points races for 3yos: Delhomme, Super Ninety Nine, Den's Legacy, Treasury Bill. First glance had Super Ninety-Nine, easily. Thinking he'll use up energy trying to get the lead from that post.

Invisible Ink, Impeachment,More Than Ready,  Bluegrass Cat, Super Saver

Invisible Ink, Impeachment, More Than Ready, Lime House, Bluegrass Cat and Super Saver comprise Mr. Pletcher's top four finishers in the Derby.

To suggest his horses regularly peek at two rather than three in certainly not true.

In one year he won 7-8 3YO Derby Preps.

Forbidden Apple,

What do you know about STORMY HOLIDAYS?

Where does one find Beyers, for free? Both Barbaro and Fusaichi Pegasus ran well throughout their Derby preps. Coldfacts, you asked Forbidden Apple, but "too slow" was my comment. Stormy Holiday would be a huge upset.

Even Super99, you are completely wrong, he has not peaked. The horse is 3 years old and in the prime of his racing career. He already won at the distance and at Oaklawn, he is clearly the horse to beat. Are his muscles going to suddenly weaken? Barring any injury, the horse runs fast and will be hard to beat. I don't care what post position he has or how much weight he is carrying, he is a runner.

Mary....thats the point....those races hurt horses, hurt their system in many ways.........why dont trainers work in 57 change, or 45 ch? factor throat surgery? he blitzed them at a route...then went off form.....horses break down, health wise......ever hear the horse worked too fast? workout took too much out of him? what do you think a 105 beyer does?

Stormy Holidays, I know nothing about him until you just mentioned him. His Smarty Jones race was slow, it looks like he finished up in about 1:39 3/5. And then they cut him back to 6f for some reason. I'm not going to make the same mistake I made with Orb, but at the same time Super99 looks formidable. This time around I'm going to box my exacta. Treasury Bill will have to improve big time, I think he has it in him.

I have no clue who KY Vet is, he could be an 18 year old college punk sitting behind his computer. Anyway, I just want to apologize for him and his many insults towards you and other bloggers. He could easily get his points across without calling people ignorant or crazy. I for one do not appreciate people talking down to other's like they are a genius. He is now looking to jesus to help Flashback improve enough to even make the entry box on KY Derby day.

As I wrote earlier today, Incognito is running on saturday, he is the likely favorite after running second to Mr. Palmer.

I also like Snow Fall and Bright Thought in the two Santa Anita saturday stakes, boxing them both with the favorites Joyful Victory and Slim Shadey.

Do you ever attend live races At Saratoga Race Course?

Hey! you guys gotta see this one! defintion of a big move! check out replay dec.6th race 7..Lrl.....#4PETIT TRIANON 3yr old f(then 2).....she dwelt, stayed in gate.....got off about 28 to 30 l back......got the lead after 6f in 1m race, then obviously quit to get 5th.....unreal move!  she then won by 6 1/2l....then 7 l on wed.....wow!

Mary,

I searched for the KY Derby future bets and found a link that had both Brisnet and DRF past performances for every horse. Finding beyers for free, I don't know. Equibase and DRF both charge for each card or you can become a  monthly/yearly paying member.

exactly apple.....youll say it was post....youll say bad ride, too much speed in race.......you know what i'll say? next.........big chalk by the way............

To the doubters.......over the years, i have aquired a special set of skills....to deal with people like you....if you continue to bet, I WILL BEAT YOU......AND I WILL TAKE YOUR MONEY!!!!!

Stormy Holiday won his first two starts at 51/2F each time closing off the pace.  One of those races was won in a time of 1:5 1/5. That’s not bad for pedigree that does not suggest he is a sprinter.  

His 3rd start was at 6F with internal fractions of 21, 45, 57 where he finished 4th beaten 4L. He was put away for 11 weeks and brought back in the Smarty Jones. He closed from a long way last for 4th place beaten by only 5L.

His last race was against Title town Five in the 6F Gazebo. Again he closed from last to get within 2 3/4L.

Title Town Five, Will Take Charge and Texas Bling will all be at shorter prices than this Harlan’s Holiday colt.

I think he is a nice exotic wager horse as his last was much better than it looks on paper.

Thanks for letting me know that Super99 is the big chalk. For that reason my top pick is Treasury Bill. Your handicapping skills have peaked! Flashback is an obvious downgrade next out.

For the record....i posted that i didnt like anyone pool 1.....i decided to bet pool 2....i picked normandy and flshback.....if i lose, big whoop...ive won more money on the derby, than any other race.............its a futures bet.....i picked 2 horses that might improve.....thats what a future bet is all about.......so i dont understand the delight in the fact my horses havent gone to #1 yet.................get over it.....

"His Smarty Jones race was slow, it looks like he finished up in about 1:39 3/5"

You are correct but he closed from a long way last and was returning from an 11 weeks respite.

In his cut back race he was closing resolutely on King Henny and Title Town Five.

He is well bred and his owners paid $120K.  His third dam was extremely good.

He could sneak into the super if they go too fast.

Yes, KY, Coil in his exhibition work before the Travers, as an example of too fast of a work.  You are a fascinatingly strange character with your proclamations and zero lack of ego, but I don't get the reason for the mystery. Sorry, but seems like not much of a big deal.

wow...we like the same horse angry bird! Can you guarantee we can beat delhomme? he scares me alot....wish he wasnt in race....

I am not incorrect that The Factor was a sprinter. He ran "unopposed" on the lead in the Rebel. You have certainly seen many examples of alone, on the lead, winning races they would not have, if pressured, head to head.

Which is your Rebel winner anyway, KY?  Treasury Bill?  The mom in me would suggest to you getting some food, but I like you after you've gotten into the corn liquor. "I will take your money." How terrifying.  It's not much, lol.

Treasury Bill has to improve many lengths to even come close to Super99. And he should in his first route race. Nothing is a given in this sport, that's why it's called gambling. Delhomme does not scare me, if he wins I lose. I'm not angry and I'm not a bird. Remember that you are the one who stoops to name calling and is extremely arrogant for no reason at all. You could not beat my money out of me.

I was just interested in the free Beyers for this discussion, Forbidden Apple. I use 365 horses for free PPs, or a friend sends some. I don't purchase a drf, program, but I get to read them, usually no charge for admission, if one has tickets to cash. I don't like to pay for anything.

I just read that Secretariat was assigned a 139 beyer for his Belmont win!

Nothing for me to get over, get over yourself before your head explodes. I like Flashback, he was #2 on my Derby Dozen before last week. I have watched plenty of horses run over a 100 beyer race after race and they keep on running. Stakes caliber horses can do that, duh.

Funny Cide kinda ran away with 'em in his work before the Belmont.

Forbidden Apple,

“I have no clue who the KY Vet is, he could be an 18 year old college punk sitting behind his computer”

I know exactly who the Kentucky Clown is. He belongs to a group referred to as ‘Empty Barrels’ and it has been proven beyond a reasonable doubt they invariably make the most noise.

It is inconceivable that anyone entering the doors of a collage would be incapable of composing a simple sentence with even the simplest amount of punctuation.

The way the individual writes is a significant indicator of the personality that has been trying to impose itself on the supporters of this and other blogs.

Do not waste your time apologizing for such an individual as he beyond redemption.

The Arab proverb is overwhelming applicable to such individuals:

He who knows not, and knows not he knows not,

He is a fool, shun him."

Fear The Kitten the colt that finished 11L behind S99 was beaten 13L by Oxbow in the Lecomte Stakes. Oxbow returned in the Risen Star facing a much stronger field and finished a close 4th.

S99 will only be facing 2 opponents from the Southwest. The remaining opponents are new shooters. The Rebel field is significantly stronger and despite  his excellent speed  his prospects of winning are extremely remote.

PETE : Probably time for a new blog ... ?  What do you think ?  Looking forward to seeing your pick for the Rebel.  

Coldcuts:

First let me say I love the Footbridge colt.  Think he will run huge this weekend.  But aren't you being a little hypocritcal when you state I shouldn't be predicting when a should run big or not run at all on a certain day?  You should not even bring up Footbridge if you are not suggesting the same.  He seems to not want to pass horses and is content with finishing second. So what makes you think Sunday will be any different?  Personally I love to see a young horse pair his top efforts.  I think he'll run HUGE of the paired top.  But again, there I go predicting when a horse will run good or bad.

JJ,

That a boy, are you Pete's boss?  I am guessing he has been busy covering the Ocala sale.

Coldfacts,

That's not fair.  He uses ellipses.

VET:

You're killing me again with the 12 part mini-series comment.

Coldfacts,

I tossed Stormy Holidays right off the bat.  Why would he close better against faster competition when he's already failed to win doing that on the same track?

But your interest made me look again and note his pedigree and the fact that he's stretching out.  I guess that gives him a glimmer.  Plus, it's horse racing. If they looked like winners on paper they wouldn't be longshots as someone here said.  Someone also recently said you're a sucker for stone cold closers, and you're obviously a pedigree maven, but I think these two angles are bad at Oaklawn Derby preps.  I remember you like Najjaar in one of them last year.  Good luck.  

No vertical exotics in this race for me.  It's not my preferred type of bet -- too random -- and I have the luxury of making multi-race wagers this weekend.  Treasury Bill seems like the best chance to beat Super99, but I just don't like him or anyone else, enough to try.    

Coldfacts,

My apology -- I see you're not picking him to win, you're putting him way underneath.  

I took at all the early races tomorrow at Oaklawn and was suprised how cheap they are.  My eyes were glazing over.  I didn't even remember any possible longshots that stuck out.  Luckily they have penny-ante rolling Pick 3s.  I don't know why, but they still don't have the ML up, but that's probably a good handicapping exercise.

I'll play the late Pick 4 and will have three tickets.

R8: Only in America should be the favorite but his race was slower that the one Run Hide ran in (though it got the same Beyer), so I'll try to beat him.  I'll definitely take Only in America, Run Hide, CA shipper Betweenhereandcool and longshot Jackson Action.  Debating whether to take the other horses who ran okay in the Run Hide race:  Mr. Blackthorn, Sammy's Bandit.  I probably will.  That's six horses.

R9:  I'll single My Miss Aurelia on one ticket and take her with Songs and Sonnets and Don't Tell Sophia on another.  Tiz Miss Sue won this last year, but it was weaker and she doesn't look better this year from her Bayakoa.

R10 Single Super99 on all tickets.

R11 One one ticket I'll single Que Posse, on the other I'll have Que Posse, Okie Tuff, Gentlemen's Bet.  I'll comb this over for some longshot possibility, but I'll probably stick with this.

Three 50-cent Pick 4 tickets totalling $45.  Cheapo.

KY VET,

Looks like bettors missed that Petit Trianon race, as she went on to win her next two easily, and wasn't the favorite in either.

Hot Springs and Hallandale Beach have identical forecasts of sunny and 76.

yea 108.....a little comedy is good......its a blog.....gotta make it interesting....the haskin blog has people crying he writes so well.....everyone loves everyone....vanilla.......people say stupid things like"i thought goldencents looked heavy"......and no one disagrees........

108.....they missed my line from the movie taken.......

rusty......bad single.......

I agree bad single.  I love Super 99.  Too bad he cast in his stall morn of BCUP.  Was my single that day.  Think he's good enough to win this but he is going to get heavy pressure like he has never seen before.  Hoping he is a freak.  Have future wager on him.  

Vet: Who are you on if anyone in SA 2nd?

KY VET,

I'm not super enthusiastic and I wouldn't try a pricier Pick 4 with this as a single, but I don't like anyone else here.  I am willing to let Delhomme beat me off that layoff and out of that race, same with Oxbow out of the Fairgrounds, and the likely other contender Treasury Bill, I just don't like here; I remember lots of horses chasing the speed last year at Oaklawn.  Until I can picture who's going to beat a legitimate favorite, I'll bet that favorite. I even like this Posse Cat as a single, but am just not willing to spread out on the Rebel.  I can live with that.

How would you bet this race?

At Gulstream I'm having a hard time narrowing things down to singles in races 7-11 (pick 5, pick 4).  In the Honey Fox I like Chad Brown's two -- one is developing and sharp, the other is the only G1 winner coming off a layoff.  But I don't like one over the other.

I'm tempted to single Magical Weekend in R7 -- second start, showed speed but had trouble in first out, and horse that beat him, Lily Olay, will take some of the money.

Well, good luck and good weekend everyone.

Rusty-

Good observation on Magical Weekend, as she certainly had an odd trip and likely would have finished ahead of Lily Olay in their previous race.  My only concern is that Lily Olay drew a better post for a 7f race and seems to have a little more tactical speed.  However, I will likely stay aboard the Magical Weekend bandwagon.

Good luck!

108...had to go somewhere...sa 2nd...i did like fav...he won....no bet on race....interesting manando quit again, but didnt show the bad signs i saw from him, in these last 2 starts....must have been a minor problem.....war academy is a nice horse.......does this flatter treasury bill?

rusty....treasury bill, delhomme, dens legacy.......those 3....

I'm giving Samitar the nod in the Honey Fox. I can't get past the Euro wins as a class angle.

Interesting longshot in that race. Star Torina. Coming off two wins against lesser, had to fight to win. The most interesting part is Bill Mott bringing her back after two weeks. She must be kicking the stalls down. Seems out of character for Mott, I hope it was his call. Running style might be a minus with all these fresh horses. She has closed before. Fingers crossed.

S.A. Race #7 Exacta & Tri Box #'s 3,9,7,10

Bocachica made my day today at GP !    Almost had the P6 except I missed the 10,  but I'll take the tri, still a nice pay off.  I'm set for tomorrow :)

Also hit that tri in the 6th with the 99-1 horse in the 3rd hole.  I thought it would pay more than what I got but it's a winning ticket so I'm happy.

www.facebook.com/photo.php

Going to play night racing !

THE KEYMASTER,

Lily Olay has already had her second start and ran back to the same, so with the trouble and eligibility for dramatic improvement, it's Magical Weekend.  Not real strong -- hope running a 75 Beyer is enough to beat these.  But it's an obvious pick: she's the favorite, after all.

THE KEYMASTER,

I am going to do something with Acadian Connection in GP11.  He ran in a much faster race than the others last out: this race is for 3-yos and he was against older.  Since I don't know which of the others competitive at this class to pick, and he's the one that doesn't fit, I'll single him in something.

Fugue for Tinhorns,

I like Brown's other horse in this race, Pianist.  4-yo, sharp, 2nd back, up in class.  I think these two cover both angles.  If I try a 50-cent Pick 4, I might treat these two as a "single" and make it a dollar bet.

I would like to show more guts, but I am going to toss in Right to Vote in Oaklawn 11.  I'll still have a ticket singling Posse Cat.

In GP8 I like Clement's horse off the layoff, Malibu Way.  I don't think I feel strongly enough to single, as it's wide open.  I'll play him on top in exactas.  Between the favorites I prefer the sharp, fast Tricky Hat to the one dropping in class, Hollinger.  I may go 6 wide here, with Southern Parkway, Big Blue Spirit, and even longshot Perfect Tay (GP seems his preferred surface).

I'll use Pianist underneath in my Tri key.

THE KEYMASTER,

I'm going to try the GP Pick 5 singling on the front and back ends, Magical Weekend & Acadian Connection, with 6 horses in the 8th, 7 in the claimer and the two Brown horses in the 10th, $42.

I'll sleep on it and hopefully come up with a Pick 4 or Pick 3 I like if I'm not live to the Pick 5 after the 7th.

JayJay

   Pete had to see a man about a horse.

Centre Court wins the Honey Fox

Can't wrap my brain around the fact certain individuals giving Coldfacts so much disrespect. The same one's living under a mirage believing they wrote the book on racing,yet when they lose you don't hear anything about it. There's probably not one individual on here,(including myself) who picked MTB to win the Derby. Yet some here think they can pick a horse to win as early as Feb. lmao

KY Vet

Regarding your comment about the Haskin blog,if you miss Shandler so much bet you could join him in Miami helping him with his business venture...selling lemonade on the beach.

Plod Boy Phil,

A pick, I like it!  I made her my third choice.  G2 winner at 3, but I didn't like the choice of a mile after the layoff.  I'm a little surprised she's the ML favorite over Samitar (who liked that distance in Europe).  Good luck.

Phil, Centre Court is the class. I'll use her with the speed, Frontside and Pianist, and coming from behind, Heavenly Landing.  Any downgrades?

Yes, Channel Lady

Have C. Court in my boxes,2478 and under the 8 in keys.

I hate betting on Tampa races, but I found a horse that deserves a play at 10-1 odds. Race 10, a cheap stakes at 1 1/16 on dirt. #10 Baffle Me ran second behind Pianist on turf last out and has enough speed to wire this field.

Coldfacts,

The only play I came up with involving Incognito is a double into race 7 with #9 Billy the Bull. He's a first time starter out of the Kenneally barn, the trainer has been a bit cold at the Big A. I like his works and he ships in from Palm Meadows to contest a wide open maiden race.

Rusty Weisner,

I'm not trying to blow up your plans at all. I just don't think My Miss Aurelia is a sure thing in the Azeri. Don't Tell Sophia is very sharp and has 2 wins this year at Oaklawn. Take notice of the long layoff from November to August, My Miss Aurelia was off for a reason. She was extremely lucky to beat Questing and only won the photo because of her large frame. Yes she ran second to Royal Delta, but the queen was wrapped up and could have won by a wider margain. Bottom line for me is that My Miss Aurelia is no killer.

Treasury Bill will have plenty of pace to run at down the stretch. I'm using him in the double with Don't Tell Sophia and in exactas with Super99 & Delhomme.

Gulfstream:

Race 8- Tricky Hat has 2 sharp works in March and gets Rosario again, win bet.

Race 10- I prefer the late kick of Samitar in this race, exactas with Centre Court & Channel Lady.

Santa Anita:

Race 7- Snow Fall should be sharper with blinkers on and she can upset Joyful Victory.

Race 8- Bright Thought has won three races in a row and steps way up in class. I'll take a chance to wire the field, exacta box with Slim Shadey and Interaction.

3/16/13- Oaklawn Park, R-10, Rebel Stakes:

1-#2, Carve

2-#10, Super Ninety Nine

3-#9, Oxbow

4-#7, Will Take Charge

I like Carve, alot, in this race.

Thanks for the info, Phil.  Forbidden Apple, yes, that barn has had great success with their horses adding blinkers. She also gets the scream factor, from me.

Forbidden Apple,

Thanks. I want those plans blown up - I said she made things unappealing and would take Don't Tell Sophia and Songs and Sonnets; the former's a better bet than the latter, so I'll leave off Songs and Sonnets. I'll try to beat her with one horse.

I liked Magical Weekend in R7 and Gulfstream but now see he hasn't worked since last month.  I don't know whether to expect a scratch or what.  

I'm seeing some people who like Channel Lady.  That makes four horses in this race that like to run on the front end.  I'm liking Samitar more to get past Centre Court this time, Pianist less because of the contentious pace.

My Miss Aurelia is fierce. The only reason she was put in the La Brea, instead of resting after the BCLC, was to go after the 3yo filly Eclipse. I agree with Forbidden Apple, MMA is not unbeatable in the Azeri, but she's fastest and most competitive(imo) going in.  My favorite currently running horse, Royal Delta, was not under wraps in the BCLC, and MMA won the Cotillion duel in a hand ride, huge frame or not. .50 for the half, with Questing on the inside, even on a slow track, shouldn't she have been able to kick away? MMA, Don't Tell Sophia, Tiz Miz Sue.

T. Bill for the win,still think Texas Bling will finish in the money.

Got a better handle on GP9.  The 1,7,9,10 all competed in weaker race two back and/or were nonfactors against the top here.

Keep the 4,2,6 in that order of preference.

I'll try to get a horse with longer odds in the 8th race.

Mike, I just love the looks of Texas Bling.  If I'm wrong, you get to tell me so, but I think he's going home after the Rebel, and he'll have a very nice career, in different circles.

Mary

Believe it or not Royal Delta is one of my favs. I greatly respect her trainer. Saw Bill's former "pupil" Cigar last weekend.

As for Texas Bling, it's not going to be easy.

I got to see her "in person" at the BC, Mike.  The look in her eyes.  

You're lucky to be able to visit the retired champs. Cigar is favorite of a long lost pal, too. I hear he's still handsome looking--Cigar, that is.

LOL Dr. D.   Nice juicy price on Carve's ML.  Good luck man !

Lots of picks here, i'm sticking with WTC but not going to single him in my P4.  

.50 P4 $18.00

4,5

6, 7

7, 10, 2

10, 11, 2

Den's Legacy is actually my horse in the Rebel but I can't bet Robby, I don't care who he's riding.  If Den's Legacy wins this race, I'll have zero tickets lol, but I hope Baffert doesn't keep Robby for the Derby.  I think WTC might actually set the pace here, he's got a better post than the Southwest and it should be a fast track.  I see S99 tracking him all the way and either blow by him at the top of the stretch or they duel all the way to the wire.  I'll play a $5 exacta box on those two.

Good luck to all playing with real money!

Slept on it.

I will stick with Super99.

Oaklawn P4:

R8: (very wide) 4,5,7,10,11,12,1,3

R9: MMA, DTSophia

R10: S99

R11: Que Posse,Gentlemen's Bet,Okie Tuff,Right to Vote

$32

Oaklawn P3:

R9: MMA,DTSophia

R10: S99

R11: Que Posse

I like Que Posse in the last race, so if I'm not live in the 11th I'll play exactas and trifectas, 5 with 6,7,10 underneath.

Gulfstream:

I really liked Magical Weekend more after watching the replay (he lost five lengths because of that trouble) and wanted to single him in the first leg of the Pick 5, but no workouts makes him seem iffy.  I like Samitar's chances in the 10th but the PP's of this classy European off the layoff resemble ones that have bitten me before.  I'll stick the pick 3 with him.  I watched the replay of Acadian Connection (last race) and still like him: moved way off the pace into contention at the top of the stretch at a higher class and moves down.  I will also make some bets on the Clement horse in the 8th.

P4:

R8: 6,3,4,10,1,7

R9: 4,2,6

R10: CCourt,ChLady,Samitar,Pianist

R11: Acadian Connection

$36

P3:

R9: 2,4,6

R10: Samitar

R11: 1,3,4,5,6,9

Questing was running on a very DEEP track at Parx and the jockey blew the race, not his fault. She ran at least 10 lengths faster in the Alabama. Irad was given poor pre-race instructions, to sit and wait until the top of the stretch. Why take a free running filly out of her game?

Another angle with Treasury Bill is the simple fact that Ellis ships in for this race. And he brings his son in law with him, if he's good enough he'll win today.

Include the 2 in GP11 on P3.

Paul Revere : Songs and Sonnets

Find out today if this one has any Geri in the tank. She could be a somebody in the division this year if she can stay together and avoid the Unbridled Song syndrome that plagued her as a 3yo. If she can get a length on MMA out of the first turn I'll feel pretty good abou it. Big if. Sophia has been winning easy as you please and deserves all the respect she get.

The only way I could like SaS better is if her name was Songs Sonnets and Fugues.

Good luck to all.

I think the paired entry is an appealing angle on TB.  Not biting, though.

Question:  Steve Asmussen known for slow workouts?

JayJay,

Dan's Legacy exercise spins are impressive. He will get some pace to run at and one never knows.

Forbidden Apple,

I hope Incognito get 2-1 as any thing less will not be worth the wager.

If he wins he will be entered in the 9F Wood.

I like Diamond Creek in OP2.  Has run as fast as the top two favorites, and I like the angle of the layoff by the owner/trainer.

OP3:  Devil's Hammock had no chance last time, getting blocked at the start but still moving up to contention in the stretch.

OP6:  I like the chances of Claudia's Forum to beat the two favorites (7 & 9), made up a lot of ground in the middle of the race to take the lead.

OP7:  I'll take the favorite Richmond.

I should be able to build Pick 3's around these two races.

O/Park:

Bashaar: Street Cry out of a Dixieland Band mare should a good price in a MSW.

Don't like anything early at GP.  The 3 seems to be the lock of the day in the 4th but will be even money.

Coldfacts-

Big fan of Bashaar today. Back to back upgrades and 2nd Lasix from the rail.

After watching Pursuit of the Crown, i am more confused than ever, the rebel has 6 or 7 possible winners so i guess i will roll with the 3 cali horses on top with oxbow and delhomme sprinkled in a few boxes.

My Miss Aurelia, too much class

Samitar/Rosario get the trip

Tempted to play the downgrade w/p

Takin a shot with Kiss the Lady in the Cicada angle is new trainer listed but old trainer callin the shots just a hunch

More Chocolate might be better on dirt

Interaction gets this time....

enjoy the weekend and goodluck to all........

Forbidden Apple, I feel as though I'm starting to sound like you know who about this, but I never heard of that instruction to Ortiz to wait. I believe the excuses given were, as you said, the track condition(dry), and the weight(now proven a completely legitimate excuse by Fort Larned--LOL) Source: www.drf.com/.../parx-my-miss-aurelia-wins-stretch-duel-questing-cotillion

Also, first-hand heard quote, SA parking lot, BC Day 1, "Oh, we're not engaged." Because I made that mistake, too. Has that changed? Very lovely girl. Not sure if in-law is an edge, but I do like Joe Talamo very much.

I think I may be overly sensitive about this as a Royal Delta fan, but why is Questing missed, so much? She ran off with two very prestigious grade 1, 3yo filly races. Lost the duel with My Miss Aurelia; lost duels before that. Did one really get to know her?  

About what you said--a free running filly--exactly.  Great way to win without being tested first part of race and no one to catch you last part of race.  

Longshot play today: Oaklawn Park, R-10 the Rebel Stakes:

#3 Texas Bling- well bred gelding is ready for a big one today, track will be dry today, I'll play him with my top four and as a WPS, and an exacta with Carve.

Crap, I missed that DTS is ridden by Robby, she's out for me.  I'm actually not familiar with DTS, don't think I've ever seen her run...but sounds like everyone has this race down to those two.  Hopefully My Miss Aurelia is tough today.  That means my ticket is much cheaper now lol.

Ok, I'm not betting the P4 at Oaklawn Rebel...I missed the 4 in the first leg is also Robby.  I'm staying away from it.  I need coffee...

No one likes Great Hot ?  

Playing GP instead :   .50 P4   $10.00

08 :  1

09 :  4,5,6,7,9

10 :  2

11 :  1,3,6,7

Coldfacts,I also like McLaughlin's Elghayoor in the Cicada today.

Mary,Check the splits of the Alabama, Questing tested herself with insane fractions for a 1 1/4 mile race. I have never witnessed a filly run like she did for the first 6f and then run away at the 1 1/4 mile distance. I was lucky enough to get to know her at the Greentree training facility in Saratoga Springs. She was a small 1,000 pound package of dynamite! Not even Cigar stood up to fast fractions when he lost the Pacific Classic to Dare and Go.

JayJay, Are you against Albarado because he bashed his wife and girlfriend within the last year? My Miss Aurelia should be on the lead and the heavy chalk.

I should have said at a track outside of S.A., because Royal Delta ran huge last year on the dragstrip course.

Jay Jay, I like Great Hot, just don't think she'll wire in this race like she did her last.  I like Snow Fall, long distance breeding, late pace, blinkers added "should make her aggressive", not just friend's mare thing. 5,6,3.

About not betting a horse due to the jockey. I've had a turf router favorite with a jockey that had very serious personal troubles, a top sprint mare favorite whose regular rider was imo the cause of a TC race near disaster, with long lasting repercussions. I still bet the horses, but I'm not in your wallet.  

You can call me new at this, Forbidden Apple, but 1:09.74 is not what I'd call insane, and yes, I understand that she was setting this pace for a 10f. Just that no one was going with her, no pressure. I don't think she pressured herself. She slowed down, which is to be expected, and you saw how she ran in the stretch. Don't forget that there was a filly that came out of the race, injured. Possibly she might have added pressure at the end of the Alabama otherwise. I can see you liked her, since you were able to watch her train.

That might have been a no-win situation with Siphon. Couldn't let him run off with it.

FA : Yep, not good for the sport if you ask me.  Not sure why he's still getting mounts.

Mary : You seem well connected.

Ha,ha. Hardly, Jay Jay.

Bad news...we have as much of a chance of getting 5 to 1 on treasury bill, as coldcuts winning a nobel prize..........if we get 3 to 1 i'll be happy.....

.50 cent P3

O.P.

R5-1,7,10,11

R6-4,7,8,9

R7-3,4,11,12

.50 cent P3

O.P.

R6-4,7,8,9

R7-3,4,11,12

R8-4,5,10,11

Thanks Rusty for the tip on Magical Weekend watched the replay and seen the samething. Thanks again.

I had posted 2 p3's at Oaklawn,Park they were. .50 cents p3's

R5 1,7,10,11

R6 4,7,8,9

R7 3,4,11,12

2nd p3 was

R6 4,7,8,9

R7 3,4,11,12

R8 4,5,10,11

I had sent them way ahead of Race #5.

BASHAAR !!!!!

Boom boom goes the dynamite

Coldfacts -

Nice one.

Flow players got a bonus Late P4 sequence on today's Grades.  Nice start,  that.

Nice score Phil...

Same for you COLDFACTS on bashaar

Mary

All I can say is Cigar looks very well at twenty three. Still very playful,aware of how great he is.

He's like fine wine.

Coldcuts, PBP....Bashaar!!Good way to start the afternoon and yes P4.

Thanks!

Thanks Sam -

You are one of the smart ones that just reads and cashes. You also had the $24 horse I gave out at OP on SW day.  Well done.

Robbie-

How did that DG bet work out ?

I can lead them to water....

JayJay-

Nice winner with WTC in the Rebel...Congrats.

Jay Jay, you had the upset winner?  Congrats.  Sad about MMA.  It was a good discussion anyway, Forbidden Apple.  Not sure yet what happened with Snow Fall.  

Hey Mike, Texas Bling took fourth.  I haven't seen the race, though.  

Phil it didn't work out to good my 20 doller ex ran 3rd and 4th no biggie win some you lose some but before this turns stupid my post was directed as a trend play just like on sports forums i often fade another bloggers post.. nothing personal, goodluck my friend

JayJay

   Super pick with Will Take Charge. Another excellent job of handicapping for you. Hope you did well and can take us all out to dinner.

Nice longshots people!.....rebel went to script,except bill didnt run a step............thats ok.....tiz sue was nice to me......btw.....the off form horses didnt win.........you can be right, and still lose.......congrats on the bombs.......thats how its done baby!

mary wahat does sad about mma mean...

ohh...my miss a....did she get hurt?

VET -

I think they meant that she's not a sniff of what she was at age 3.

VET-

One more thing,  Tiz Sue is a past post....weak.

Sad that she lost, of course.

What are you getting your horse for his birthday, KY?

I did not mean any sniff thing, Phil.  I will take everything into consideration over the week.  I haven't even seen some of these replays yet. For instance slow time of the Rebel, so I will await further evaluation of the figures from that race. Maybe he has another entity that had the winner?  It happens.  idk, though.

Plod: you da man as always in my book.  Yes boom went the dynamite on Bashaar.  Oxbow cost me p4 but still ran HUGE.

Vet:  still scared of Delhomme?  How cold have been off this long if something wasn't wrong? You should have recognized that.

Cold cuts:  Delhomme will always have a nice pedigree.  

Mike:  still convinced Tbill will get two turns?  Menifee mare?

Weird slow pace of the Azeri.

Congratulations:

Coldcuts on Bashaar.  I ended up going 8 wide on this race and had him and remembered you.  I hit a 50-cent Pick3 for $220 and had another with My Miss A. & Don't Tell S and thought I was sitting pretty for the day.  Picking against that favorite was my best pick of the day.

Jay Jay:  the 7 was unhaveable.  Unbelievable.  Wow.

Plod Boy Phil:  Centre Court.  You made me rethink this race when you made this pick.  I only wasted $20 on Samitar because of it.

Mary Zinke,

Re: slow pace.

:49, 1:14 was it, with all three leaders dropping dead?  The track really changed.  Not that I took advantage of it:  I not only lost money on Super99, but after Race 9 I made it worse by picking...Treasury Bill in exotics and the daily double after that.  I also ended up taking TB, Oxbow, Carve, in the double along with S99 after I was knocked out of my pick4, but an off-the-pace horse I liked in the 11th, Que Posse, did nothing and came in fourth.

Before that, at least the first half of the Oaklawn card up throught the 6th or 7th race, the track was picture pretty for speed and I thought I was going to be the king of the place.  I had the Pick3 races 6-8 ($220 for 50 cents) singling Richmond in the 7th and singled Diamond Creek in the 2nd in the early double, so I won at Oaklawn for the day, even after losing in the last four races (and a lot on the single I liked in the last race, Que Posse).

At Gulfstream I hit a chalky Pick 4 singling the chalk Steve's Adventures, then got another single home for a better-paying Pick 3, Magical Weekend.  I also single Magical Weekend on the front end of the Pick 5 and thought I was sitting pretty, but really got whacked very badly at Gulfsteam with the longshots in races 8 & 9, which is just as well, because my other single, Acadian Connection, lost by a neck in the 11th (when I got knocked out of the Pick 4 I doubled down on him in the Pick 3, then the double, auugh).  

So I lost $150 on the day, $100 up at Oaklawn, $250 down at Gulfstream.  

FA -

CC is a very good horse - has been for awhile. I'll be very very surprised if Pete did not have her. I was pretty sure you had the exacta, which came back pretty nice considering.  

Nicely done with the Cicada winner.  It was a great day for 2nd time Lasix users that met the criteria I have set forth here a couple of times regarding same.  If the 1st time doesn't bring the move,  the second time may - usualy at an improved price.

Big day for Coldcuts with that one and Bashaar.  

Like Mary Zinke said, the track at Oaklawn got crazy.  It turned to quicksand.  I will not soon forget the Azeri, with Songs and Sonnets blazing ahead like that leaving a perfect setup for my two horses...who couldn't finish it off after :49 and 1:14 fractions?!  I had Bashaar in the 2nd leg!!!  I then proceeded to readjust to events on the ground by piling good money after bad, and after a good day till then.

The 50-cent pick 4 paid $135,000, by the way.

Coldfacts,

Forgive me:  I just called you "Coldcuts" by accident.  You deserve respect.  You're a picker!

Mary -

Defending the VET?

The guy stunk up the place today,  was surrounded by amateurs blowing up the board and still he has to try to take some of the spotlight with a past post.  

As for MMA, she's been uninterested in fighting since the BC. As you know, F & M's can be tempermental...

1:08 and change

Yeah, was wrong today. Really puts my mind at ease knowing you're always right. lmao

Rusty -

What leads you to believe that the track 'turned to quicksand' ?  When did it happen ?  

Rusty, I lost a total of $20.  That's all I spent today, and I still wish I'd stayed home.

1:08 -

Bash aar us indeed.

You are too difficult for me to figure out your intentions, Phil.  Defending anyone?  What?  Have your thing with whoever you're actually having it with. My own picks were mostly horrid today.  

PBP: Not to mention Saturdays Charm who paid 8.80 or something to place awhile back.  After several winning years in a row, lost my mojo in 2012 and can't hit a pig in the ass with an oar.  Maybe I shouldn't bet on pigs then...Get to go to FL Derby in two weeks.  Looking forward to that as I used to go all the time although I bet I will hate the new paddock area.

"As you know", and I thoroughly get your little juvenile dig--I'd know juvenile because you can't possibly out-immature me, Phil, cursing isn't allowed here, so maybe you can look up this horse called Efview.

Wow Coldfacts. Just realized I called you coldcuts too...sorry.  Nice Bashaar!!

Mary-

Did I misunderstand the meaning of 'perhaps he has another entity' line ?  In hindsight, I believe I did.  Maybe you were Bashaaring him as well.....my fault,  I think.

A ways back,  someone here had some disparaging comments about you on another blog using violent refences and other unpleasantries.  Until now, I had no reason to think it true. While looking for that horse you provided,  I stumbled upon her 2nd mare - a classy champion by the name of Faretheewel My Honey.

Sam-

'Saturday' was a Live Blog horse.  Did you have Dominant Jeannes the week before ?

Anyway, happy to help. Have a grand time in Hallandale.

Until further notice, which is whenever I feel like it changing, no reply at all, I don't click on ads, and 4 inches is not enough.

Mike:

I have been wrong plenty.  Was right today in that Ox was best horse.  And Delhomme was not a play.  You're probably right in that there is no doubt TBill can get 2 turns.  Just not against these.

Oh yeah, one more thing, "In Plod we trust"... Lmfao

1:08-

Good one.

I'm pleased that I relegated Treasury Bill to 'just a horse' status after thinking he was more prior to the San Vincente.  Lone upgrade Den's Legacy ran well,  but not well enough.

Figs on Monday.

1:08 and change

Here's a litle secret, my day don't rise or fall on how many horses I can pick correctly.

Sorry to disappoint you.

Plod Boy Phil,

I don't understand your point.  There were two earlier 8.5f races earlier in the day.  Bashaar was faster at 6f, Dark Ruler was comparable at 4f and 6f.  The Azeri didn't strike you as strangely slow?  Yet even after this two overwhelming favorites at a G1/G2 level were overcome in the stretch, in something resembling the nightmare where you can't move your feet.

Are Mary Zinke and I the only one who saw this?  

After the congratulations, thanks.

Some people saved me a little money today, and some even won some for me:

Coldfacts:  wanted to go wide against the favorite in this race all along and had marked Bashaar as a lonsghot angle, but was only going six horses wide till you mentioned him.  My multi-race bets sometimes get a little -- how shall we say -- elastic in the heat of the moment, so I might have tossed him in myself, but your call really stuck in my head and sealed it for me.

Forbidden Apple:  tossed the pacesetter in the Azeri and lost 1/3 less in this awful, nightmarish sequence.  But I won't forgive you for Treasury Bill: talk about a setup.

PlodBoyPhil: your authoritative, if laconic, assurance about Centre Court in the Honey Fox kept me from staking too much on Samitar.

Mary Zinke,

It was some of the best money I've ever spent.  I'm still high as a kite in the aftermath. I guess I should be a case study or a cautionary tale or something.

Plod Boy Phil,

I guess the Oaklawn track seemed more honest early.  I'd have to go over the races, but I seem to recall horses coming wide to win, so it wasn't like Gulfstream.  But the surface seemed livelier early.  

Rusty-

Race tracks do not change between races for no reason.  Perhaps if a storm comes by, or 'they' release the dirt eating gnomes that live under the surface.

This is a great example of why the huge majority of handicappers should not attempt to modify selections with each and every result on a card.

Did the track return to normal after the Azeri?  After the Rebel ?

It's one result in a Grade 2 in which the best horse on paper had not won any graded races and the favorite was clearly not the horse she once was.  The winner did win this race last year,  so the result is certainly not an aberration.  From where I sit, the 4 winning would have been so.  I was sitting on a number of last leg P3s to the 6 - unfortunately, she was not best today.

Rusty -

Glad you enjoyed, and survived, the day.

Plod Boy Phil,

I take your point, it's a good one:  it's hard to assume a different surface from one race to the next, and hard to handicap.  For example, I deprecated a speed horse in the last race, Gentlemen's Bet, that went on to a nice stalking win.  Still, when it came to the Rebel, I was right in dumping Super99 like a hot potato, wasn't I?

There were two high-profile races in a row where the results were...aberrant.  The speed just died with drama unnatural to the eye.  And it wasn't just MMA in the Azeri that collapsed.  The other one, Don't Tell Sophia would have won a surface that wasn't...I don't know what...hexed.

Who's to say it doesn't change from one race to the next?  Maybe a late afternoon shadow from the grandstand, or an exhalation from one of the local springs, induced a temporary microclimate from the 3/8 pole to the wire?  

Whatever it was, it cost me money.

Coldfacts / PBP  : I saw both your posts about Bashaar, but then I didn't get reminded again until my 11 horse was 10 yards from the wire.  Nice job on that 23-1.

Mary : Yes I did. Nice job on Tiz Miz Sue, I think you're the only one that posted the 3 finishers - hope you had the trifecta.

Dr. D : I didn't cash out as much as I wanted to.  $3 win and a measly $1 exacta.  I wasn't really expecting Oxbow to run as good as he did but he landed Mike S.   S99 ... you think he was exposed as a miler today ?  Haskin has always mentioned that Baffert thinks this horse is a miler.  I'm going to make a prediction for the Kentucky Derby, the post time favorite will be no lower than 5-1 lol.

Rusty : I picked WTC from watching his last race, I watched it several times.  This horse has speed and is a stalker but my thought was he didn't like the wet going at all, he was dead last throughout the race, didn't look like he wanted to run at all.   I always thought it was hard to gauge the other horses in the Southwest because of the wet track.  Two horses who didn't run that day finished 1st and 4th today at huge odds.

Pedigree Ann : I know you like Den's Legacy, and I wanted to get your thoughts on his run today.  I like this horse as well but I still don't get why Baffert didn't use Martin on him.  I really hope Baffert puts him in the Arkansas (and lands Bejarano or Garcia), he needs to hit the board to get in I think.

Mary : Regarding not betting certain jockeys, I'm not going to lie, I'm pretty sure I've bet Robby in the past (even after the news broke out about him) but it would be because I didn't pay attn to the jockey at the time and played the odds and the horse.  Today, it was Den's  Legacy that made me notice him, I was really annoyed that he got that mount.

I wasn't talking about the track condition; I meant the pace.  Why was MMA restrained?

If anyone can explain what was to like about the Rebel, thanks. I'm tempted to toss the lot of them.

I didn't play the Azeri, Jay Jay. Won't fabricate that I did.  Would have used MMA in a double, but there wasn't one offered. Maybe Oaklawn only does that for their first two races?

re sam:

If you havent been to the "new" gulfstream park, do your self a favor and "buy" a seat....$50.00..other wise you will be nothing more than a bristling!

I miss the "old" gulstream park...reminds me of when my G.G.(great grandmother) would take me as a child....Anywho, get the seat its about at about the 3 story heigt(cheap seats) BUT you have a birds eye view of the track...I love that. If you plan on being on the ground level on FL derby day... you are forewarned....See u in the seats! I never miss a FL derby!!! For G.G.'s sake...god, i miss that woman cursing at those horses!!!....GOODTIMES!!!

JayJay,

The post regarding Bashaar was a bit late. I am not known for  posting many picks but I just thought the well-bred second time Lasix contender had shown enough to improve off his dismal showing when first time Lasix.

I got lucky on Friday as I hit a $3,600 Trifecta at SA. You will probably recall a downhill race that #4 won at 17-1. I took a big shot on Bashaar and today my voice is nonexistence.

Will Take Charge:

Congrats! During the post parade I told a friend that he looked much trimmer and might just be the pick of the paddock. My colleague knows of my love for the Mr. Prospector line and side you made so much money on Bashaar from the line, why not bet your love. I told him I already wager a lot on Delhomme. I could not resist and made small wagers on T/Bill, Texas Bling and WTC. I was able to recover the money I lost on Delhomme with a small surplus.

The time for the race did enhance the Derby winning prospect of the top finishers. However, one can never discount horses from the Mr. Prospector sire line.

Delhomme:

Now I know why I have no confidence in Mr. Pletcher’s program. Unless there is an acceptable explanation, the colt’s performance was disgraceful. He stopped faster than he left the gates.

In an HRTV interview he specified that the colt was sent to the farm after the Remsen and I should have known something went wrong. If the colt was not ready, why not target an easier spot.

I hope he does not screw up Revolutionary.

Sam Santschi/Rusty Weisner,

No disrespect taken as few here would enter an alliance with Mr. SOS.

Unbelievable, no love for Santa Anita races or Bright Thought. You folks missed a track record setting performance, this horse is a killer on turf! Snow Fall ran poorly, but I was smart enough to play a $100 double Joyful Victory/Bright Thought.

Coldfacts, Thanks for mentioning Bashaar, I placed $20 to win on him just to have some action in the race. Incognito, Billy the Bull, and Elgayoor were all winners at the Big A.

Mary Zinke, You are correct, it was never reported that Irad was given poor pre-race instructions for the Cotillion. Trust me on this one, it was not the jockeys fault. It was also not reported that Questing had a small abscess in a front hoof just days before the race.

Plod Boy Phil, My Miss Aurelia was a very good 2 year old, she did not impress me at all last year. Good hit on Bashaar, I was shocked that he went off at 23-1. Bright Thought was the big story of the weekend, a powerful and classy horse that gets zero respect.

I forgot to mention Delhomme, he was pulled up and I believe he finished last. No surprise here if he is another retired horse coming out of the Pletcher barn. The Wood is cursed lately and I feel bad for Verrazano. Revolutionary is a good horse, not convinced that he is the superstar that some think he is. Shanghai Bobby is the one Pletcher horse that shows up every time and runs hard.

Samitar needs a 1 1/8 mile race and she will prove best of that group. I'm not giving up on Treasury Bill just yet, he deserves another chance in a two turn stakes race. Shipping two days before the race was not ideal.

Mary Zinke,

One more negative fact regarding Questing is that she shipped into Parx the day of the race, I hated that decision.

After Snow Fall was bumped, her jockey thought she took a "funny" step and pulled her up. She seems to be fine.  Congrats to a fine win by Joyful Victory. Didn't miss the ntr. I love the SoCal races--was on a live chat, elsewhere. I guess not nwr due to the short downhill section.

Forbidden Apple,

I did not focus on SA on Saturday. I saw excerpts from the Race on First Call and he was very impressive.

It would be nice to see him against Point Of Entry in the future.

Another John Henry.

Beyers for yesterday: Will Take Charge-95; Tiz Miz Sue-94; Bright Thought-104; Joyful Victory-107.

Bright Thought was brilliant and, for me, a nice surprise.

It seems a little late for apologies, you guys have no respect.

This sport could use another John Henry type. A horse that is not afraid to race and sticks around for several years. I'd like to see him ship east, maybe the Arlington million. I hope the owner's realize what they have and keep it safe and sound. No selling out for a quick score.

I don't see your report on the San Luis Rey in yesterday's posts, FA.  Congrats on being the first to mention the ntr today. Don't quite get the no respect comment. Or any need for apologies or any given.

Look again, I was the only one on here to even mention Bright Thought. I talked about him on friday night and yesterday morning. Yes, no respect for Coldfacts.

Correction, thursday night at 11:23 and yesterday morning at 11:45.

Happy St. Patricks Day, drink and win some green !

How did my picks stink up the joint? i made one pick....treasury bill.....he didnt run at all.....slow race, right about super99, race went like i thought....my horse just didnt fire.........i had good day.......your comment is a joke..........act like youve been there before....

JayJay, Smoking any green today? I just opened my first bottle of the day, a tasty stout!

The KY Donkey is quiet, he must have lost his money on another Pletcher bust.

does any one else like "southern dynamo"? He's entered in the 7th @ oaklawn. A 1sty with a series of steady works and a sharp gate work recently. Trained by "the coach"(who seems to be hot)and has winning jock of rebel. I like him. Gunna take a shot with that one....

Also like "totemtale" in the 6th @ gulfstream. Last trips has made decent middle move only to come up short in route's. Cuts back to sprint , which he clearly prefers, and paco lopez in the irons(love him in sprints!). Lets hope for a lively pace.

May do something in INSIDE INFORMATION STAKES....I'm leaning toward NAKANO. Good luck to all playing the races today!

Forbidden Apple,

You were right on the money about MMA.  You talked me off a (small) single on her.  Too bad I don't play SA.

That was a closer's track for Treasury Bill.  I would hold the race against him.  I wouldn't hold the race against Super99 even if he tried at 8.5f next out.

I thought Oxbow and Don't Tell Sophia ran the best races in the two upset specials.  Dead rail.

Happy St. Paddy's Day.  The Irish were known to be monks, too.  That's what I'm going to be after yesterday.

Treasury Bill, Delhomme, Den's Legacy.

I would look out for Gentlemen's Bet and Right to Vote after OP11.  I would consider them "upgrades".

I will give Den's Legacy a shot, too.  He came up the rail.

Den's Legacy, after the Rebel:

twitter.com/.../1

Didn't mean that Don't Tell Sophia and Oxbow ran on the rail, because they didn't.  Meant to say it was a closer's track and the rail was dead.

FA : Nah.  You're a bit late, I started last night hehe.  Keep 'em lit up !

KY VET : It's not your picks that stunk up the place...

Mary : Ouch, that looks nasty.  I don't know how to determine if a cut is bad or not on horses, I actually have never seen one until you posted that and that looks pretty deep.  I'd probably pass out if I get a cut like that...

Regarding the Rebel Stakes, I won't be surprised if Super 99 is done for awhile, his stride in the stretch yesterday did not look good, beyond just tired, like a knee chip or something, just my opinion. That track was tough yesterday, to say the least, I think it speaks well for the top three finishers, who all ran a terrific race, not to be taken lightly when looking back at it and considering how it will factor in on future races. Especially Den's Legacy, that was some performance on a dead inside track. And WTC and Oxbow should not be taken lightly in any upcoming races; what looks like slow times, is not what it appears and the Beyers that were assigned, are off, probably 5 points too low for the performance. We shall see how the top three do down the road, I upgrade their peformance when looking at future races.

3/17/13, SA, R-4, state breds, 3+, MSW turf:

#4-Warren's Cracker- love the breeding osn this one

3/17/13, SA, R-7, 3 yr.olds, MSW, 1 mile on dirt:

#11-Chief Havoc- attracts Stevens, he was last seen last year facing Shanghai Bobby and Goldencents in the Champagne. Could be ready now, but has to beat the up and coming Footbridge.

isnt footbridge scared of chestnuts?

some kind of nuts

GP Race 11

2 Posse Attack

correction:  6 Posse Attack

Jay Jay -

I thought that Alborado moved Den's Legacy too soon when he put him into a drive at the half-mile pole. Denny only has one 'move' and he can't sustain it for 4f - few horses can. I can see why Robby did it - he was down on the rail with a half-dozen horses coming outside of him and he didn't want to get shuffled back by them crossing in front of him. But I still think it was a mistake.

I wonder if B-squared won't send Den to the Blue Grass instead. Den broke his maiden on Poly at Del Mar at two and has a record of 1 win, 2 seconds in 3 starts on turf. He has 20 points now, so needs probably 20 more to be insured a spot in the Derby.

Now it's official, Bright Thought set a new WORLD RECORD for 1 1/2 miles, 2:22 3/5!

Pedigree Ann : Thanks, I do think his one move is enough but do you think 40 points will be enough to make it ?  I thought they would need about 60.  I like the Blue Grass route, thanks again, appreciate your insight!

John henry......just rolled over in his grave........

mary...ya lost me....i dont even know both horses birthdays.....is that bad?,,,,,horse number one is galloping so good, they moved 1st work up to later in the week......now's the important stuff....gotta come out of works unscathed......ready to race

This is a first for me! In the 6th at sam houston park tomorow, the trainer of the #2 is also the jockey! Can that even happen?

4 more derby contenders bite the dust....super99,oxbow,treasury bill, delhomme....look forward to more next week......

Rusty:  You're killing me man..."temporary microclimate from the 3/8 pole to the wire?".  Vet, I cannot believe you had no comment on this.  

3/25 KY?  Check yes or no.  Anyway GL to your horses.

Forbidden Apple--That's great!  Did you petition? ;)

I love the blazing fast Cali turf racing--hope this brings even more attention to it.  

For those of you wondering where pete denk has been.....hes been spotted out in the prairie, at a herd dynamics convention(herd).....each must stand, and introduce themslves, then tap with their hoof how old they are.......pete pulled a hamstring.............

Coldcuts:  Congrats on the tri hit!  Nice race by Footbridge but don't think he's a contender at this point.

Vet:  How has Oxbow bitten the dust?  Keep dreaming with Flash.  New rider won't matter.

Sunday Silence is most likely the one rolling over in his grave. Heartfelt congratulations to Bright Thought and his connections!

108....rusty was joking....you are free to bet oxbow...how is he gonna win the derby...the rebel isnt a stong prep....hence the 94 beyer......i have 2 horses on my early wager, good to see more contenders fail......mary, i really dont know their b days.....really! karen, someone called bright thought another john henry......funny....

Guys, the turf course for 12 at Santa Anita is PARTIALLY DOWNHILL. In fact, the first 3f is downhill, then they cross the main track and run for 9f on the flat. Because the course is not flat, Bright Thought's time is a course record, but I doubt anybody will accept it as a world record. It had a gravity-assist.

Horses regularly run 6.5f down the hill in under 1:14, but the course record is not a world record for the distance.

equibase.com  but like I said, don't worry. I'll never tell.

mary...not 3/25....ones in march though...other in may....

Hmmm, I'd hate to have to start from scratch, but okay.  Maybe I'll post a workout time before you do.

The only right move I made Sat. was taking Bashaar advice from Phil and Coldfacts. Good job and thanks. On to the Spiral.

Pedigree Ann,

The partial downhill status of the track and questionable world record were well discussed/reported yesterday all over the internet after Bright Thought's race. I'm quite aware. Today the reports have been changed to reflect a difference in the official opinion. BH itself has posted the altered story. Maybe you should express your disbelief to the editors.

Karen / Pedigree Ann : Maybe I missed something, but according to the BH article, Hawkster's WR was set on the same course.   Did the SA course change since then ?  BH didn't say anything about that part so I'm curious what the issue is.

Pedigree Ann,

At ~5:00 P.M. today the reports of the world record being declared for Bright Thought were beginning to be published. At the present time there are at least 11 (eleven) sources that can verify this quickly via an internet search. These sources include BloodHorse, DRF, Brisnet, Gainesway's site, Paulick Report, and the Associated Press to name a few. No need to link any since the BH home page has the story.

JayJay,

Yes, Hawkster's record was set there as well; I do not know if the course has been altered since that time. This story is literally being reported everywhere tonight, and there is no issue at this time as far as I can tell.

The only issue with Bright Thought is that people still do not respect this horse. He just ran a mile in 1:33 3/5, 1 1/4 miles in 1:57 4/5, and 1 1/2 miles in 2:22 3/5! He must have peaked, right? Not to mention that he also has 2 wins on dirt.

KY Donkey,

Why do you continue to talk out of both sides of your mouth? Again, you stated that Oxbow's 94 beyer was not a strong prep. When a horse runs a beyer over 100 you say that they peaked or can't win next out. You make zero sense anymore. When I found out that you liked Treasury Bill I should have jumped off from him like the sinking Titanic.

Forbidden Apple

Liked T. Bill,also.

What I don't understand about KY Vet is why he feels the need to channel Draynay.

Maybe Treasury Bill did not ship well, who knows. He looked great on the track. I'm not impressed with any horse coming out of the race. Can you believe how poorly Delhomme raced and finished?

Were you able to pet Cigar? I remember back to 1997 in his stall at Greentree stable and he was very mean. A true biter, always aggressive.

FA-

How should this 'respect' for Bright Thought be expressed?

Is it the horse that's not getting respect or is it a feeling that those that picked him on Saturday are not getting respect? It was his first Graded Stakes win and he returned a robust $7.40 in doing so.  His two dirt wins were in a Mc25k at Lrl and a an Alw1x win at Penn in which he was DQ'd for a medication overage.

How much 'respect' did Hawkster get?

FA-

I though that TB looked anxious on the track - not the horse I remember seeing in the SV post parade.  Then again,  what do I know about horses.

Not even a mention of this horse before or after his race. Try to focus on his last 3 races and then you might understand how good he is. I don't need respect from you or anyone else. I simply picked the horse and passed it along to others before the race. Even one of my closest friends would not listen to me. I hit the double, not the win payoff.

I'm a fan of horses, not handicappers. In general, turf horses never seem to get much media coverage. Wise Dan has clearly been an exception.

Blog cred does not put any money in my pocket. And I don't have a paid group of followers that I'm trying to impress. Anyway, he's probably an obvious downgrade next out. He peaked all the way to the wire!

Respect, like maybe the cover story with a photo on Bloodhorse. Or the cover of the next issue of the magazine.

Forbidden Apple

Cigar is one of my all time fav. Yes, I pet him everytime I'm there,also many times getting my pic with him. He's still aware of his greatness,a very smart horse. Always bring him mints,I've been there for his last three birthdays. Everything about him seems much younger than his actual age.

Black Caviar running 03/22.  No money but it'll be exciting to watch.  I have to say, I like Australian racing a lot, the payouts are huge but you have to use the form for it, their program numbers don't match their post position and they have different conditions for the surface, dead, slow, good... really tough to handicap but if you get lucky, you're in the black for a few months... and that's for a $ .20 Superfecta...