You will regret not having Den's Legacy somewhere on this list. He may not be glamorous, but he just keeps on running, even when the jock uses his move too early to keep from being shuffled back on the rail.

Pete,

The runner up in the Tampa Bay Derby did not make your 20.

His Sunday Silence victory was  impressive and finishing to wonder horse Verrazano by 3L must carry some weight.  

Pedigree Ann,

You make a strong claim for Den's Legacy. However, he always appear to be one pace when it matters irrespective of the strategy employed.

In his turf/synthetic races he finished with more energy suggesting that's where he bongs.

Dellhomme returned to the races 3 ½ months after his good Remsen effort and literally robbed the public and is now off the Derby Trail.

The colt was pulled up and walked in last. Another Life At Ten moment.

While I continue to monitor the progress of the horses from the Mr. Prospector sire line,  I am keeping my fingers crossed that  Revolutionary  a colt I like a lot does not become the next victim of the MIA syndrome that has affected TP’s stable over the years.

In 2007 Scatt Daddy won the FOY and FL Derby and he finished 18th in the Derby. Likewise in 2007 Cowtown Cat won Illinois and Gotham and finished 20th in the Derby.

It is inconceivable that the Verrazano fans can be confident if they are truly aware of  TP’s Derby record.

Java’s War has 22 KD points and is in the #12 slot. Code West has 20 points and is the #16 slot. Den’s Legacy has 20 points as well and is in the #13 slot.

War Academy, Crop Report, Rydilluc, Frac Daddy and Balance the Books  should not be ranked in a top 20 list ahead of the  those horses.

Pedigree Ann,

I remembered you after the Rebel.  Den's Legacy came up a very dead rail.   I hope he is put in a spot where he has a chance to get in the Derby.

I would put Oxbow ahead of WTC on this list.  It was a closers' track.

Coldfacts,

I totally agree about Java's War.  That was his first as a 3-yo and he loomed and almost threatened Verrazano.

Coldfacts,

Delhomme didn't rob everyone.  Gambling on his fitness here was not a good gamble.

There's still an intervening prep race, so I don't know if Oxbow is a legitimate threat in the Derby yet, but as far as moving early goes, I take that as a plus, especially if CD is anything like last year.  I didn't consider him likely contest the pace on the front in the Rebel, he stalked like I expected.  But I think he faced a slow, tiring, biased track trying to finish it off.

Your list includes my top two Derby likes, Hear The Ghost and Verrazano.  If we're including longer shots, besides Java's War that Cold Facts mentioned, I'll add Elnaawi, Dice Flavor, and Golden Soul--all May foals, just noticed ;)

Den's Legacy, that Pedigree Ann mentioned, had the hock cut excuse, maybe Escapefromreality had an excuse in the Gotham, supposedly got clipped from behind, but I haven't seen discussion of that.

Won late:(meaning after I had him in the San Vicente) War Academy.

Pete:

Your top 2 are the goods.

My Future win bets are on Itsmyluckyday.

My exacta box includes Verrazano.

I believe Revolutionary is a miler. He might be another Pulpit.

I meant to say of Revolutionary-another Pyro

Derby points for the taking in the Sunland Derby.  Who's shipping?

Rusty Weisner,

"Gambling on his fitness there was not a good gamble."

I do not think you really understand.

Mr. Pletcher has contributors on these Blogs that worship at his alter. TO THEM HE IS GOD LIKE!

Great trainers are capable of getting horses fit to be competitive off a long respites.

Todd Pletcher is not some back bush trainer. He is a multiple Eclipse Award winner.

Java's War returned from a three 3 1/2 months respite and ran a fantastic race.  

Delhomme returned from a similar period and laid an egg. I do not recall seeing any feathers covering his body.

The great Lammtarra won only a maiden and returned 364 days later to set a NTR in the Epsom Derby.

If you were the owner/s of Delhomme would you accept the fact that an unfit horse was shipped at your expense to embarrass your color?

If the colt did not suffer an injury the trainer and his team are the folks that passed him fit to run and must take the blame.

Mary,

I saw War Academy’s debut victory and it was workman like. I have a distinct dislike for Giants Causeway horses.

They always seem to breakdown and if they do make the Derby field they finish off the board irrespective of their proven ability.  His best colt to run in the Derby was Creative Cause and he finished 5th. The best finish by a horse sired by him.

Between 2002 and 2008 Giants Causeway bred 1,259 mares that produced either 5 or 6 Derby starters with all finishing of the board.

Over the last 8 years he bred an average of 181 mares. No stallion possessing that type of mares bred record has sired a Derby winner.

I would not be surprised if there is an announcement that he is off the Derby trail due to some back end issue.

  VERRANZO is a FREAK,  he has the abilty to  put himself wherever he needs to be.  in DERBY  he can stay out of trouble  as long as he breaks and I see a REAL DOG FIGHT with him and LUCKYDAY  turning for home.  now is one them good nuff to put the other away in lane and go on?  eye test say VERRO is. LUCKYDAY  will be asking for the line last quarter mile in DERBY IF he evens gets there.    my other use horses are Vyjack  who  last out with ROSARIO in irons look DAMN impressive.   then ill add a CROP REPORT  who will  win the SPIRAL by Daylight folks.  if we get 5/2 or better LOAD UP!!

Coldfacts,

A couple of people here, can't remember who, have made the observation that Revolutionary skipping the 50-point races could be a sign of a problem.

At this point, and with this horse's odds, I'll bet against Revolutionary in the LA Derby.  I may even gamble against his fitness and bet against him hitting the board.  Plus who knows with the track.  I'll also look at works.  I believe both El Padrino and Gemologist had lackluster works before the Derby, and neither shipped.

Coldcuts:

At least one thing we can agree on is that TAP is brutal getting a horse ready for the Derby.  Talk about some COLD FACTS... Now if I was in the business of buying yearlings and getting them to run lights out at two to then sell them off then he's your guy.  The list of horses is endless.

Pete,

The exceptionally well bred Footbridge broke his maiden on Sunday in his the 4th start.

I have been subjected to much ridicule over this colt. Since you have included some turf runners that have no points in your list, why not include a well bred son of Street Cry?

The least you could have done is throw my little colt a bone and put him on the front page.

Let's no for get the points leader is from the Mr. P sire line.

Do not forget he is also from the Mr. Prospector sire line one of the most successful in TC history.

I am of the opinion he will be entered in one of the 9F Derby preps. I think he will just love this distance.

He has the ability to compete with the top colts CA. All he needs is a little Lasix to level the playing field.

The difference between Todd Pletcher and some of his detractors is that Pletcher has accomplishments.

Coldy:

He might want to run all day but doesn't seem like he's fast enough yet.  I don't know what the track was like overall yesterday but the race seemed slow from a fraction standpoint.

I like your guts to put It's my lucky day up there with so few points.  I hope you will continue with YOUR top picks until they are mathematically out of it.

Thanks

JerseyBoy,

"The difference between Todd Pletcher and some of his detractors is that Pletcher has accomplishments."

For one that has made known your profession, it is inconceivable that your rebuttal points have led to many courtroom successes.

The betting public is integral part of thoroughbred racing. Without the betting public most if not all racetrack would go out of business.

Many innovative promotions are undertaken and many attractive wagering options offered by Racetracks to attract both on track and off track wagering.

Those who wager their hard earned cash do not need accomplishments to be critical of trainers whose horses deliver mediocre performances.  

To assume that those being critical of the Multiple Eclipse Award winning trainer are void of  accomplishments only serve to highlights your ignorance and your blatant disdain for the betting public.

1:08 and change

Footbridge’s most recent race is the slowest in which he has participated.

I am of the opinion the track was a bit on the slow side on Sunday.  

Verazzano will finish 3rd or fourth after he hooks up with Lucky. Lucky will get the place after getting caught near the wire.

Waiting to find the winner after the 9 f races.

Veraazano will win Preakness if healthy.

Pete:

Any emotional conformation assessments on your top 20 at this point?

Coldfacts:

You do not know what my profession is. I have never disclosed what it is. You assume you know.

You are the one displaying ignorance.

However, I am sure you are among the best at what you do, whatever that is.

Long live Todd.

Jersey boy.....people wonder why i am a critic of Coldcuts....well ive seen the idiotic things he has posted for about 6 years...first, the msn blog, then here...he dropped out of school at grade 5, plagerizes breeding info, trying to pass himself off as some kinda breeding guru......passes off weird opimions as fact, for 6 years now, never has liked any horse, trainer, or anything on top....he is a contrarian....if someone posts something about a horse, he will take opposite veiw, if the horse is ranked high.....Never has he picked any triple crown race, or breeders cup race right.....not one! What his biggest thrill is, is listing 20 crap horses, that no one can see....and if one ever gets 2nd or 3rd in a big race, he will show you the post when he mentioned him.....wacky stuff like...the horse has a swan neck, born on the wrong day, too many letters in his name, wrong color, questioning training methods, equiptment....the guy thinks he knows more than the best trainers......all because of his faulty science about how the odds are against a horse winning the derby.......he told me a 12,500 sire was better than a 250,000 sire!  Right now, he wants a mdn winner on the top 20 list! He , in six years, honest to god, has picked 2 winners that i remember...one this week.......which i'm sure is more than how many teeth are left in his mouth..........

Todd pletcher is over 30 percent! wacko! To have many derby contenders, dont horses have to be winners?

KY VET:

Throughout my life I have observed this trend—some of those who have succeeded encountered setbacks along the way. Whenever I could, I helped them.

Only the non-trier never has failures.

Horse racing is full of pitfalls.

I would never criticize a trainer because I have never trained a horse. Horses breakdown, they die on the track, they fail to perform at the level expected for reasons no one can anticipate. It is the nature of the game.

Pletcher succeeds in spite of it all.

JerseyBoy,

In trying to edit the final paragraph of the last post I inadvertently submitted same.

kindly substitute where appropriate:  

'Such thins are not trophies'

JerseyBoy,

“I would never criticize a trainer because I have never trained a horse.”

The position above is reasonable given your lack of knowledge about the training of horses.

When the operator of Team Valor stables removed his horse from Todd Pletcher he made some very candid remarks.  As far as I am aware he does not train horses.

Many trainers have been fined and suspended for violation under their licenses. Those penalties are much harsher than criticisms levied by members of the betting public.

They have been found guilty of offences and are not above and beyond criticism.

The other member of your unholy alliance is so gullible that he actually believes I dropped out of school in the 5th grade.  For the record I did not.

I once owned and raced thoroughbreds. In fact, during this period I used 6 different trainers. I was forced to become knowledgeable about training and keep and care to ensure a return on my investments. It was not enough for a trainer to advise a horse was fit and well. I had to be in a position to determine if the information provided was consistent with what my eye captured and by brain processed.

I recalled being told once that my horse was going to run big. I wagered $40,000 and like Delhomme he finished a distressed last. The colt was brilliantly fast and from a level break it did not even smell the lead.  

When a professional you are paying big bucks to train and condition a horse tells you it is going to run big and you lose that type of money he should be replaced and he was.  

I know a lot more about keep and care and training horses than most supporting these blogs.

JerseyBoy 16 Jan 2013 9:42 AM

Coldfacts:

Now I am being funny. I will compare Footbridge to Secretariat.

“By the way, you do not have to tell me what happens in a court of law. I have a law degree and I am married to a lawyer.”

Mr. SOS,

You have accused me of Plagiarizing and that a serious indictment.

Plagiarize: Take (the work or an idea of someone else) and pass it off as one's own.

Kindly provide evidence of same.

The information I share with fellow contributors is secured from historic data available from various web sites.

I merely summarize the data into what I consider to be useful or interesting information.

You clearly do not know the meaning Plagiarize.

Coldfacts, First of all, and I don't mean to be rude to you personally, but I think guys very much enjoy the horse sperm comments. Now, I don't get all up in there, but since War Academy was foaled in early February is it possible that that stuff was fresher, or isn't it renewed daily? Another thing is, how many Giant's Causeway offspring have run in the Derby? Since you mentioned my 2012 Derby pick, 5th in the Derby, running that wide, wasn't horrible as an effort by Creative Cause, and I still don't know why he was retired early. Are Giant's Causeways known for back-end problems? I see these rebuttals to statistics in which people ask for sample size, plus I have to go by the individual horse, and I'll take that workmanlike effort as you called it. Finally, War Academy is not a top favorite of mine at this moment, but I can definitely see why Pete has him in a top twenty. I find it not beneficial to have general dislikes.

Does anyone know if Calvin Borel has a derby mount yet? IF not, don't you think Pletcher should consider using him? Hes the won that won him his one and only Derby..dont know why trainers doesn't seek him out come Derby time..Hes a great jockey

Coldfacts:

The statement is true but it does not say what my profession is.

In the last 30 years two winner of the Rebel have won the Kentucky Derby. Below are the winners and their winning times:

2004 Smarty Jones: 1:42.00

1983 Sunny Halo 1:42.20

The 2013 Rebel was won in a time of 1:45.18; the 1990 Rebel in 1:46 and the 1979 in 1:45.80.

The time recorded by Will Take Charge represents the third slowest in the history of the race.

Is WTC fast enough to will the Derby? Based on the available data he needs  to improve 2-3 seconds in the speed department.

Mary,

I am just sharing some observations and in no way attempting to dampen your support for War Academy. He is a nice colt from a sire whose offspring’s have not had a lot of success in the Derby.

Last year Fed Biz was a buzz horse in CA and was suddenly taken out of training for soundness issue. Mr. Pletcher had a brilliant filly that looked like an Oak prospect after her smashing debut. She disappeared shortly thereafter. Both were sired by Giants Causeway. Russian Greek and Creative Cause seem to suffered injuries are the Trip Crown preps and races.

War Academy was produced from one of 194 mares bred by Giants Causeway in 2009. Until one of these overbred stallions is associated with a Derby winner I will continue to be skeptical.

However, this just a Derby trend and it can be reversed without notice.

JerseyBoy,

A Degree is not a trophy so it is safe to assume it is being put to use.

However, you are correct, my assumption could be incorrect as in todays working world its best to be multifaceted.

I feel like my questions were not addressed, Coldfacts, but I'm kinda ambivalent anyway.  See ya for prep picks.

Jersey Boy

Other trainers have steller accomplishments without breaking the rules like Pletcher.

I really like Oxbow, but have a feeling he will always be a tease.  I don't know if he is moving too early or just doesn't have the heart to win but if he was 2 lengths better, he'd be one of the Derby faves.  

Why does coldcuts keep showing times of races, without any kind of variant? Useless!  How can you people not "call" him on all this bull that he spews? OFFHISROCKER.COM

Coldfacts,

Barry Irwin made some candid remarks about his past trainers and never mentioned TP by name. You and others on this blog jumped all over it saying that he was clearly talking about Pletcher. The next day Irwin was asked about his comments and clairified that he was in no way refering to Todd Pletcher. I gave you the quote and the article it appeared in. Obviously you chosen to ignore this information because it doesn't fit your story.  I don't worship TP or do I think he is God, but if you want to continue to bash him you should stick to the facts.

Listen, Dos Equis Guy, calling everyone on everything would take too much time, besides, I'm no expert. That position is taken, isn't it?  Should I post, "I got a laugh out of that." more often? That would take too much time, too.  One of those "like" or arrow up or down functions for comments might be useful, though.

longwaytomay,

I find it interesting that he excluded Mr. Pletcher from his comments but removed his horses from his stable.

Are people what they say or what they do?

KY VET : You post 10 times more useless information than Coldfacts.  At least his posts makes people do research to see if he's stating a fact or not.   You on the other hand, are all "r5 DeD....200 WP on 4, will wake up!"   or "I know this, I will take your money, I will beat you" or "That horse is broken"... what's useful about that ?  

There's a reason people respond to him with comments of substance, whether he's right or not, he engages and starts a discussion, unlike you.  If you're going to claim to be an expert or know something, you have to back it up, saying you know something and then when asked why, you answer it with questions just means you're full of it.

Now go back to your hole and just read, no typing for a week !!

Barry Irwin the expert at what? I know him...hes a whack job too! You two can sit around telling each other how much you two KNOW about bloodlines.......THE BREAKLESS CLUB!

Mr. PLETCHER is classly.....Irwin is a senile cheap shot artist.....who got lucky with a horse........you see, he knows more about bloodlines, than..................

Re: Java's War

I was very high on him as a 2yo, and I still like him a lot, on the turf.

I simply don't think he's a dirt horse. Probably not a 10f horse either.

1:08andchange-

You asked about emotional conformation. Itsmyluckyday scores very highly. He burns his doles out his energy very gradually for such a fast horse. Nice balanced dynamic too.

Mary Zinke;

According to DRF.com, here is the projected field for the Sunland Derby:

Abraham

Demonic

Dry Summer

Govenor Charlie

Just Win Baby

Mudflats

Persuasive Paul

Saint Prado

Shakin It Up

Show Some Magic

Stormdriver

Titletown Five

Wildcat Moon

Overanalyze had been expected to compete, but will instead await the Arkansas Derby.

In other news, both Dice Flavor and He's Had Enough are expected to ship to Dubai and contest the UAE Derby. Java's War will stay at home for the Blue Grass Stakes.

-Keelerman

I don't find Mr. Irwin to be of that nature. Perhaps he'll respond here, since you know him, KY.  I'll just ask.

Pete,

Did Java's War's strides appear to be shortening in the TDB?

He looked very resolute to me.

He certainly appears to be more of a route horse than Nobles Promise who finished 5th In the Derby for Kenneth McPeek.

Thank you for that news, Keelerman.

Keelerman,

Any information on whether Footbridge is being considered for a Derby prep?

Coldfacts;

He is indeed! Footbridge is expected to run in the Blue Grass Stakes on April 13th.

Sure coldcuts....im sure they are that smart.....yea! lets run him again....in 3 weeks....then run him in the derby.....that'll be good for him! lets not use lasix, because its not good for horses.....but lets rush him to the derby!    

Yea mary......irwin never is a guy to speak his mind! naw! Pletcher is dishonest.....barry irwin is the most honest guy in the world.....just ask him! CHEAPSHOTARTIST.com

Pete:

Thanks for the info on "lucky."  Great to hear as I am a huge fan of his.

Mr. SOS,

"Right now, he wants a mdn winner on the top 20 list!"

When Flashback, Tiz The Truth and Verrazano broke their maidens Mr. Haskin included them in his Derby Dozen. Tiz The Truth lost his first two starts and one was an off the board finish. Footbridge worst finish in his four starts is 3rd.

If my suggestion that Footbridge be included in a top 20 list is crazy as you have eluded, then   Mr. Haskin inclusion of three MSW winners in his DD should be considered even crazier.

You are consumed with hate and it has reached a chronic stage. It is so chronic that you are incapable of comprehending what you read. In addition, you are now questioning why others have not chosen to support your campaign of demonization.

Do yourself a favor and bypass my posts. If you find my posts so disturbingly annoying, do yourself a favor and bypass them. You are being advised to exercise this option and stop your pain.

A man of your intellect would never allow a 5th grade drop out to have such influence on you.

Remember they only serve to provide misinformation to the vulnerable less informed.

When I have something like that to say, I say it to the person's face. growapair.com

speakingofcheapshothypocrits.org

Mr SOS,

I do not know if you have ever been around a horse sometime after Lasix had been administered.

It has abnormal urinates spells consistent with a weak bladder.

That can lead to dehydration and extend recover time from exercise and races.

A fit race horse does not need three week to recover from a race.

Street Sense and Dullahan exited the Bluegrass and perform creditably in the Derby.

Done Get Mad won the Derby Trials 8 day before the Derby and  finished 4th in the Derby.

longwaytomay

Always enjoy your comments. What I like least about Irwin is his arrogance. Why run AK in the Belmont,(where he was injured) when all chances of a Triple Crown went down the drain when he lost the Preakness. They could've saved him for the Travers,etc.

Isn't it a positive for fan interest/sportsmanship to have the Derby and Preakness winners face off in the Belmont?

Mike Relva:

If I respond to the statement, I will indirectly spread the charge. So I will just say I am sure you are one who has accomplished a lot. After all you never fail to say that you visited a horse farm. Such information is invaluable.

All my charity is towards human beings but ,of course, this has nothing to do with horse racing. It is just another attempt at cynicism.

Mike,

So how's the work over at PETA going these days?

Mike - Why run in the Belmont with Animal Kingdom? Because the horse was fit and sharp, it is an American Classic, and it is at a distance that he was bound to enjoy more than most others in the field.

One can't know ahead of time that a horse will be injured in a race. Especially the way AK got hurt; not due to underlying unsoundness but because he was shoved sideways behind another horse and clipped heels.

A number of people on this blog refused to bet Delhomme because they felt they couldn't trust Todd Pletcher to run a sound horse after a layoff of over three months.  Coldfacts has a right to be doubly disgusted because he had the bad judgment to bet this horse on the mistaken assumption that Pletcher would be running a very sound and fit horse this time.  Maybe he should kick himself for going against his better judgment and suck it up, but it doesn't mean his criticisms of Pletcher don't have merit.

I'm not sure what the defenders of Pletcher are expecting here.  An apology for not betting his horse?  A donation in the amount they should have bet?

Sports bettors have every right to criticize sportsmen, trainers, horses, coaches, etc.  It's the lamest -- forgive my choice of words -- excuse to say you've never been on the field of play.  We're not horses, either, but we've got every right and reason to form opinions on how they run, even on their "personal" qualities like heart and smarts.

Mike,

So will there be any harsh criticism if Titletown Five ships to Sunland for the Derby?  Should he be running?

Pletcher = great trainer, top five in the game.

Pletcher = just flat out struggles getting horses to perform the first Saturday in May.  Super Saver was probably the worst Derby winner of all time.  Lucky was ten times the horse that year.

Pete Denk,

Frac Daddy has been held up by injury or illness and may be pushed back into the Florida Derby.  McPeek talked about it in the story about his work the other day.  I wouldn't give him any chance.  

You don't want more Purple Egg on your face (sorry, someone had to say it).  You should have saved to purple eggs for Easter (sorry).  He really laid one (sorry).

I am rooting for Uncaptured in the Spiral, because I'd like to see him as a potential longshot in the Derby, but betting-wise I should probably keep away from him there because of an injury-induced layoff and poor odds.  I noticed you don't have him here.

Rusty,

 I never said that Coldfacts didn't have the right to be critical of Todd Pletcher. I did say, and will say it again, that if your going to post negative information about someone it should at least be the truth.

1:08 and change

You don't to work for PETA to care about horses. I stand by what I say.

JerseyBoy

You might be suprised if you compared your accomplishments with mine. I don't only visit farms.... also contribute. Not one to believe after a horse is no longer racing,you just forget about them or worse. Will argue that with anyone. As for your contributions to charity,everyone is different.  My money and time goes to animals,simple as that.

Mary

I understand your logic. Just saying after AK lost all chance of winning the Triple,why not rest him for the other big races later that year?

Think it's difficult for anyone to argue the fact that year after year Pletcher gets a wealth of horses for the Derby and something always goes wrong.

longwaytomay,

You're right, sorry.  I was really responding to KY VET and JerseyBoy.  I should have mentioned them by name.

So I'll repeat it.  I don't care how great a trainer he is.  He has a bad record on the trail.  After Gemologist, El Padrino, Algorithms last year I'm not surprised by the lousy performances and/or injuries of Delhomme, Violence and Overanalyze and it makes sense to factor that record into any betting decisions on Revolutionary, for example.  

Rusty

Exactly. And you know the Pletcher fans(eye roll) will be tripping over themselves finding excuses when he doesn't win the Derby.

Irwin was making excuses for AK before the Belmont was even run, mainly due to the off track.  If the conditions suited AK so well, why did Irwin make excuses for AK before the race was run?

Maybe I need to repeat something.

My ante-post choice for the Kentucky Derby 2013 is Itsmyluckyday. I put my money on him in the Future Pools.

I judge horses by their performance, not their reputations or connections.

I admire Todd Pletcher.

I also notice that the biggest money loss in the Rebel was on Super Ninety Nine, who finished off the board even though he had a recent start.

Jersey:

And what is the significance of that?

mary....irwin deserves the slam...he was no class, on national tv, calling todd a liar.......thats bull....mike is totally right...why not run him? for the good of the horse! You people who think that many races after the monster performance in derby is bad for horses, simply dont know horses.....coldcuts completely misses the point...horses can run right away, you dont WANT to run them that soon, because racing hurts horses....they sustain broken legs, etc. everytime they run....did you know this? microfractures! amongst other things......learn the game! And todd pletcher will probably win more derbys than anyone ever...then what? his numbers will still be bad.....todd bad record on the trail? wrong.......

jersey....youll learn, not to pick horses that peaked in jan, or feb.......super99 was throwout.....pro....

Pro =  Treasury Bill & Delhomme (Delhomme peaked in November)

It was the "whack job" part that I   was disagreeing with, KY.  That 2011 comment was pretty offensive to you, from what you have been posting. If I'm not mistaken, your 3:47 post may be missing a don't between who and think? So you are of the opinion that if the Derby winner loses the Preakness, by a small margin, maybe whatever margin, that they should not run in the Belmont?  Hindsight, I think about AK's Belmont. Is there a way of telling when that fracture first developed?  Before or during the Belmont?  Who are "you people"?  The generalizations.

KY VET:

The Future Pools have been good to me. I will leave it at that.

Check this one out.

Look at all entries of JerseyBoy.

cs.bloodhorse.com/.../april-26-2010-presented-by-darby-dan.aspx

Jersey:

Great.  You looking for a prize?

108...i liked treasury bill......no one else....but i said contenders were those 3.....alot including pete, liked bill....he was 7/2.........it happens..........weird how people love that.........

Longwaytomay,

"If your going to post negative information about someone it should at least be the truth"

Listed below are some of the  significant posts associated with TP. Can you specify which contains untruths?

’The colt was pulled up and walked in last. Another Life At Ten moment.

’I am keeping my fingers crossed that  Revolutionary  a colt I like a lot does not become the next victim of the MIA syndrome that has affected TP’s stable over the years.’

“In 2007 Scatt Daddy won the FOY and FL Derby and he finished 18th in the Derby. Likewise in 2007 C It Cowtown Cat won Illinois and Gotham and finished 20th in the Derby.”

“It is inconceivable that the Verrazano fans can be confident if they were truly aware of  TP’s Derby record.”

“Todd Pletcher is not some back bush trainer. He is a multiple Eclipse Award winner.”

“Delhomme returned from a similar period and laid an egg.”

“If the colt did not suffer an injury the trainer and his team are the folks that passed him fit to run and must take the blame.”

“When the operator of Team Valor stables removed his horse from Todd Pletcher he made some very candid remarks.”

Mr. SOS,

"And todd pletcher will probably win more derbys than anyone ever"

At least you are not as over the top as Mr. Shandler who predicted that he will break every record before his career is over.

I do not mean to be negative but the cold facts are he is a 3% Derby trainer.

He has sent 31 horses to contest 12 Derbies with one resulting victory.

If he continues to win one from every twelve Derbies contested, he might achieve your prediction when he is 200 year old.

That said, I still like Revolutionary at the moment.

jersey....i had super save too....i think i won about 1750...can remember....boy he gets slammed alot on here huh? wasnt a bad horse.....but...i also see your old idiotic post about throwing out anyone with a post obove #9! you should really be embarrassed....this is how i make money in this game.....there are people who actually believe stuff like that........keep playing!

JerseyBoy,

All Valid points in you last post.

However, there is a significant difference between finishing off the board and being pulled up in distress.

Mary...people were saying mike was wrong.......he wasnt.....running in the belmont was why the horse didnt run later in the year....he wasnt wrong......bad choice.....and its not hindsight........its good horsemanship.........mike made a point that was a good one, that people dont seem to get....

Mike Relva/Rusty Weisner,

If Freedom Child is not on your watch lists, check his record out and you guys might find him appealing.

How stupid, in showing how bad a trainer is......is showing all these graded stakes winning horses that lost the derby? Didnt the same trainer win all those graded stakes in the first place?...because one race, a guy cant train? What is the point? He trains champions but he cant train? how many trainers have won more than 2? how many did frankel train? whittingham?....shug? if he wins this year, thats 2 with a close 2nd right?

ANYONE THAT KNOWS SCIENCE, or research, knows, that a 12 year sample size, talking about 1 race, where the guy won 1 time, and a close 2nd.........is stupid science! You research, ok plagerize, ok steal, ok copy, these so called facts......but DONT HAVE THE BRAIN TO USE THEM!...he won a derby! so he hasnt had the best luck......in this one race

KY Vet

Thanks for that. We haven't always agreed on everything. Having said that always knew you aren't a fool.

There were other races of importance that year for AK, too bad he never got to them.

Mr. SOS,

Are you off your meds?

I summarized the finishing positions of Mr. Pletcher' Derby entrants and you regard that as plagiarizing. Stop using that word.

One does not have to steal information that is available to general public.

Have you been living under the same rock housing Sponge Bob's best friend Patrick?

For the records horses from Mr.. Pletcher's stable finished second twice and last 5 times.

Coldfacts

Thanks, will check that out.

Mr. SOS,

The title of the Blog is 'Kentucky Derby Ranking'

Are you implying the Mr. P's Derby record is irrelevant under the caption of the blob?

As a novice, I ask, how many of these horses are actually under the care of Todd Pletcher?

It seems to me that he's more CEO than horse trainer.  Don't trainers see their horses every morning...feel their legs,  watch them walk, gallop, train, cool down, eat, sleep, etc.  Lord knows I've taken enough heat here for relegating them to numbers on a page as a handicapper.  I'm not sure how you train them from using the telephone and computer print-outs for scheduling works and making entries.  Apparently the approach works until everyone else of equal talent is fully vested in preparing one or a two for the Derby.

The proclamations are unconvincing, but they are under consideration. That is not how I learn. To be told what to think.

Plod Boy Phil,

What's the verdict on  Freedom Child?

re: freedom Child

I assume you mean beyond being a MSW in March and another Lasix free animal in a world of lasix users.

His last gets a very modest upgrade, emphasis on very. From here, his entry in any race other than an Alw1x would be ill-advised.

"When the operator of Team Valor removed his horse from Todd Pletcher he made some very candid remarks." You could conclude from that statement that Barry Irwin (your buddy) removed his horse from TP and made some candid remarks. He said nothing after changing trainers. He did make some refreshing remarks AFTER winning the Derby about being tired of trainers that lied to him. Obvious to me that this is what you are refering to in your statement. The next day he was asked about his remarks and he said he WAS NOT speaking about Todd Pletcher.

PBP,

He was runner-up to Orb in his second start. The particular MSW race was the one in which Orb broke his maiden.

Orb entered the race with a 2

1/2 months maturity and a 3 race advantage over Freedom Child and was fully extended to beat him.

Finishing behind Freedom Child were Revolutionary and Transparent who were making  their 4th start.

The internal fraction and final time for the 9f MSW race won by Freedom Child were faster than those of the Open Allowance won by Orb at the same track.

This colt is by no means modest. The. IL Derby will validate my claim.  

I just finished watching Thoroughbred Weekly, not even a mention of a new track record or world record set by Bright Thought. When is the last time Jason Blewitt has had a bright thought? He is always the master of the obvious after the race. And the other guy, Eric Donovan is a handicapper and the morning line maker. NYRA, it's time to give someone else a chance to talk about horse racing.

What is so special about Animal Kingdom? What races has he ever won other than the KY Derby? He's a turf horse, no surprise that he did not run well in the Belmont.

I believe Shanghai Bobby, Violence, and Verrazano have all been sold or partially sold for breeding purposes.

Delhomme, another brilliant training job. The 7 pound allowance sure helped him run well.

JayJay, I can't stop laughing after reading your post to KY Donkey.

KY Donkey, The list of Pletcher contenders keeps shrinking with every passing week. His win with Super Donkey was blessed by the slop, a true one hit wonder. You continue to bash horses like Oxbow and Vyjack for running 93 beyers, too slow. And then with Itsmyluckyday he breaks a 100 beyer and he peaked, too fast. You are confused and make zero sense. Can you name the Breeders Cup Classic winners that Pletcher has trained? A Dubai World Cup winner? A horse of the year eclipse award winner? Verrazano has broken the 100 beyer barrier and he is the next super horse, why?

Phil

It can't be argued Pletcher has had a ton of talent in his barn,but manages to let it slip away for one reason or another.

I think the point of running, and possibly winning, the prep races is to get your animal "prepared" for the big dance. Mr.Pletcher has a knack(not of late)at winning these preps, only for the tank to be empty on derby day. Even Mr.Pletcher can atest to the fact that you do not want your hores peaking early.The devil is in the details. Mr.Pletchers ONLY derby winner did not win his prep races prior to the run for the roses. Running 3rd in TBD and 2nd in ARK derby.I believe those are facts. Winning the prep races is NOT a gauranted victory on the first saturday in may.With that said, the new points system has created this demand for points. With this demand comes horses being pushed harder than they ever have, race by race. With this thirst for points will come the inevitable injuries. I belive over the long haul of this new points system will come more and more injuries. I respect Mr.Pletcher for his acomplishments, but i can never take his horses seriously on derby day, learned that with super saver. That was not TP's M.O. with super saver(not winning all his preps). I belive Mr.Pletcher is nothing more than a "program trainer" on certain occasions.

longwaytomay

The way Shandler worshipped Pletcher,suprised if he wasn't at his home washing his cars.

longwaytomay,

What is written and what can be inferred from same can be worlds apart.

You specified that there were untruths posted about Mr. Pletcher.

All the extracts I provided contained no untruths about the trainer.

You could have specified that  inferences were being made.

That would be totally different from requesting truthfulness if negative information is being presented.

Plod:  You are correct in saying TAP is a CEO.  All the horses under his care go on "the program."  It doesn't matter who's handling them day to day.

You can't argue with his success.  He's one of the best in the game.  But you can argue he struggles getting them to run in May.  It's a cold fact.

Coldfacts-

re: Freedom Child - an above average MSW win based on modest 'vs Zip Win'. All good things in all good time.

If I were a horse owner,  I'd be very conservative.  After all,  everything that they accomplish is for us humans. Despite the human characteristics we love to project on our pets, they are animals.

Pete : With regards to Java's War being a turf horse, you have both Noble Tune and Balance The Books in your list.  Are you thinking NT and BtB are both capable of transferring their form to dirt more than Java's War ?  Looks like Java's War is going to the Blue Grass per Keelerman's post, not sure where NT is going and BtB is headed to the Spiral to face Uncaptured.

Keelerman : Thanks for the info !

KY VET:

It is my system.

I never back a horse with a high post position,in a 2-turn race.

If the horse I like has a high post, I simply do not bet.

(The "high" post might be 7,8 or 9 depending on the track and distance)

Remember, betting is optional.

Sometimes I go for weeks without betting.

Ever wonder how coldcuts asks"who did verrazzano beat?" or any horse on top, but loves maidens? Its bizarre....like the time he said that a horse comming from dubai had no chance, then the next year, picked the horse from dubai......no facts is one bizarre dude! mdns!

jersey......you are very smart not to bet.......

plod....you say some smart things on here sometimes.....you understand this game some......

Apple yet again....super99 peaked......no credit again huh?

1:08 and change

Your king Pletcher kinda reminds me of the Bills- playing in the Super Bowl four times straight times and couldn't close the deal. lmao

Does Dos Equis come in green, too?  2 days later.....

mint is green, and its in my mojito.

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Mike:

So you do not think pletcher is a quality trainer? Not top 5 in US? He Did win the big one unlike the Bills.  Cold facts.

I just have Very little faith in him this time of year.  

Baffert on the other hand is the goat.

Pedigree Ann,

Animal Kingdom was better suited to 1 1/2 miles ?  No offense, but PLEASE.

Injury or not he didn't have a shot in that Belmont after those 2 prior races.

Train him up to the breeders cup, then enter him in the Mile and not his preferred distance of the Turf.

Another derby anomaly, win the derby, then .....

I give them credit for racing him as a 4 yo, and wish him well in Dubai, but he was not and will never be a 1 1/2 horse.

Dumbo: if the shoe fits...

Not a mile and a half horse? Who is?

Dumbo: mile and a half horse in US = too slow to win anything meaningful.

Who's the Dumbo? Bright Thought just set a new world record at 1 1/2 miles on turf. And I believe Point of Entry is a high quality animal. Let me see, Point Given, Afleet Alex, Empire Maker, Easy Goer, were they slow?

1:08 and change

Yes, Pletcher has the numbers. Are you going to tell me he always places the horse first? My point many trainers have done much more with less cause he always manages to lose when it comes to loaded up in Jan. and somehow it goes sideways by May.

Dumbo

I think AK is blessed with talent, just the wrong owner. Feel sorry for the horse.

I do agree with that Mike.

In this day and age of coming into races fresh (except when a triple crown is on the line), I can see Lukas pushing a horse through 3 grueling races in 5 weeks, but not Graham Motion.

Mike Relva,

re: washing cars

I think it was a regional loyalty or something with him.

I've never met Todd Pletcher and never will.  I don't have "feelings" about him.  I like Verazzano and wish him well; I may be betting Palace Malice.

I had one question, though, strictly about Revolutionary.  People took his skipping the 50-pointers as a bad sign; I'm willing to jump to that conclusion seeing how the past two years for this trainer have gone on the trail.  Anybody got any sense of that horse, which had a workout this week?

FA:

So you point out a few horses that "got a mile and a half" but I would still argue they are not mile and a half horses.  Just look at the Belmont Stakes.  How many of the winners have been truly mile and a half horses?  A few weeks ago Game on Dude could have ran two and a half miles before anyone caught him.  Is he a mile and a half horse?

Mike:

So AK has wrong owner... but the right trainer?  Is Motion another you are going to just lump in there as ruining horses?

PBP,

What a stinging endorsement of Freedom Child.

I guess your opinion will change after the IL Derby?

I will take a colt produced by a Deputy Minister broodmare any day.

I am sure you would never downgrade any of his broodmares.

Consurgo must be a potential wonder horse.

In his second start he finished less than a length behind the mighty Footbridge.

They ran the mile in 1:37.52, just 4.12 seconds off the track record.

You beat a maiden by ¾ of a length in your fourth start. That gets you noticed!

I hope the maiden Consurgo, born May 29, lines up against Footbridge in his next start.

JerseyBoy,

Your quest to score points have left you paranoid.

Below is a post I made subsequent to Footbridge's MSW win.

Cassandra.Says,

I am very high on the Darley colt Footbridge. He broke his maiden last Sunday in a performance that appeared to be well below the standards he set in his previous three starts. I was not overly impressed but I know he is capable of much better.

I have been monitoring Incognito for some time and similar to Footbridge, I was not overly impressive with his maiden win. However, I must agree with Mr. Haskin that has energy efficient way of covering ground and he might be seen at his best at a longer distance.

His runner-up finish to Elnaawi was probably his best effort to date. In his loss to Mr. Palmer the race was pace less.

He is a very nice colt that is improving steadily and he has the credentials to the win the Derby assuming his connections have plans to try to secure the requisite points and he can overcome some negative Derby trends.

Will Take Charge  (1st Smarty Jones & Rebel)

Balance The Books (3rd in the BCJ Turf)

Nobles Tune(2nd in the BCJ Turf)

Elnaawi  (3rd Gotham)

Fortify (4th BCJ)

Code West (2nd Risen Star)

Palace Malice (3rd Risen Star)

Shakin It Up (1st San Vicente)

Capo Bastone (6th FOY)

Secret Number (1st Al Bastakiya )

Channel Isle (4th Southwest)

Footbridge (1st MSW)

The above colts comprise my top twelve from Mr. Prospector sire line.

Will Take Charge is the current point’s leader. How ironic since the sire line he is from leads with Derby wins in the modern era.

I consider WTC slow by Derby standards and yet he is on top in points. Crazy!

While the above 12 will be the subject of laughter and will not scare any of the top 3Yos, it should not be forgotten which sire line they represent.

Coldfacts:

You are paranoid. What makes you think my entry was directed at you?

I think you are someone to be ignored.

JerseyBoy,

Do truth a favor and highlight the contributor has regularly made posts about this colt.

You are the only one that is not aware who you were targeting.

"I think you are someone to be ignored."

Why get personal?

I am sure you mean my posts should be ingnot=red I seek no attention with my posts Sir! I merely like other contributoraYour thoughts

JerseyBoy,

Do truth a favor and highlight the contributor that has repeatedly posted about this colt.

You are the only one that is unaware of the contributor that your post targeted.

I can provide evidence of your repeated attempts to ridicule me regarding this colt.

“I think you are someone to be ignored”

I am sure you mean my posts.

I seek no attention with my posts’. Like other contributors I just post my views in a forum designed  for same.

Those harboring similar thoughts   have the option to bypass them.

Coldfacts-

Why the aggression regarding my modest upgrade of Freedom Child?

You asked and I provided a civil answer. The prelude to my original response,  'MSW winner / non-Lasix', was not meant to be hostile, just a tongue in cheek attempt at humor.

If you feel the need for counter-attacks,  please save them for those much more deserving.

Good luck.

Plod Boy Phil,

LOL!

I was not being aggressive I was just kidding.

Did you revisit his MSW runner up effort to Orb in his second start?

The internal fractions of his MSW victory were faster than those recorded in Orb's win at 9F on a fast GP track.  

You focused on one race.

Going forwards I will chose my words carefully to coincide with the texture of your skin.

Revised top 12:

1.  Hear the Ghost - scary how he rebroke when tiz-min tried going by.

2.  Itsmyluckyday - foundation and raw speed he can carry. Plus the emotinal conformation.

3.  Orb - beat a monster in Violence

4.  Oxbow - hard knocker has just moved too soon several times now

5.  Vyjack - probably too high but loved the move last out

6.  Revolutionary - think he has more potential to be the freak than Zano

7.  Palace Malice - speed and stamina pedigree nice combo

8.  War Academy - might be top in BB's barn

9.  Incognito - Godolphin blue now for this montser

10.  Den's Legacy - hardknocker getting better and better

11.  Will Take Charge - not sold but must respect breeding

12.  Curly Top - the second under the radar BB horse.

Forgot Code West... make it a baker's dozen.

Coldfacts -

My fault, I guess.

FC's prior two races were as neutral as they come,  thus while part of the analysis of the horse, neither deserved mention.

Unlike many,  we do not credit horses for being in the gate with good horses unless the Flow figures for the race and the running line of the horse being analyzed dictate we do so.

If I have to choose between FC and fellow MSW Incognito in Illinois,  I'd choose the former.  

I have known Barry Irwin, off and on, since 1974. He was editor at The Thoroughbred of California when I had a summer job as an editorial assistant while in college; afterwards I worked part time during my senior year.

And, yes, there have been times when I thought he could use a course of lithium. But make no mistake - he is very bright and has been in the business for quite a long time. And he can express himself so dryly that one can miss any humor intended.

JerseyBoy

Don't think ColdFacts is someone to be ignored. He's provided valuable insight. BTW, how's the weather there for the first day of spring? About twenty degrees? lol

Dumbo

Agreed. Lukas has never been high on my hit parade. He pushes too hard,I don't respect him.

1:08 and change

Guess you don't know me like you perceive you do. I think Motion is a very good traner. Please say I've lumped him in with the owner, never have.

PBP,

“Unlike many, we do not credit horses for being in the gate with good horses”

You cannot be serious!

Revolutionary and Transparent were in gates and they were making their 4th respective starts. Orb also was making his 4th.

Orb had to be fully extended to beat Freedom child and you arbitrarily refer to his presence in the race as being in the gates with good horses. Wow!

He finished ahead of Revolutionary and Transparent. They returned to be impressive MSW winners

Three of the 4 colts that finished on the board are 2 to 3 months older and had a 3 race experience over FC.

How could his performance be deemed neutral given those cold facts?

Coldafacts,

Have you considered the fact that owners have a major say in were their horses run. If it was up to Todd he would skip the Derby Trail altogether. He knows very well how gruelling it is to do well in the Triple Crown without taking it's toll. When T/P went on his own he purchased a filly named Jersey Girl (google jerseygirl the horse records) and read the times article. Jersey Girl won 7 consecutive victories including the Test and was on her way to win the Triple Tiara. Mike Smith said Jersey Girl has a tremendous heart. For her to run like that was "tremendous" Unfortunateley she got hurt and had to be retired.

Todd learned from his Dad and has been on a roll ever since. He is a defiite Hall of Famer!

Mike Relva;

Nice to see you appreciate the info provided by Coldfacts.

I deal only with information I consider relevant for my purposes. I find such information in published documents, not on blogs.

Note my frequent provision of URLs.

43 degrees in No. NJ

Thought it was always 43 there. Being org. from Miami there's not a large market for snow equipment.

JerseyBoy,

Let me request again that you do truth a favor and just admit that like the Kentucky Clown, you harbor immense dislike for me.

How can you forget the rather provocative question you asked of me sometime ago - Who do you think you are?

You will recall I humbly apologize for getting ahead of myself.

I have always ascribed you intellectual dominion and it has not been enough.

You require me to just go away. That is requiring too much.

Mike:

No, on the other hand, I was positive you would be a Motion fan.  Point being, why would Motion approve of running AK in the Belmont if he wasn't ready.??? Why would he continue to train for Valor if Irwin was ruining horses?  You can't have your cake and eat it too.

Coldfacts-

Let's examine all the facts,  shall we?

The Nov 24th race you refer to was Neutral by our ratings.  The winner, Orb,  was upgraded going into that race and thus carried his upgrade into his next race under our 'Neutral or Better Win' angle.  He subsequently won that race under modestly favorable conditions for speed and was thus upgraded going into his win in the FOY.

Now,  lets' consider your view of Duke of the City exiting Orb's Alw1x win on Jan 26th.  You greatly overestimated the talents of the runner-up Duke of the City due to his effort against Orb due to him 'being in the gate' with Orb. As you recall,  I deemed 'Dukes' effort as worthy of a modest downgrade.  He has since gone on to confirm he is not only a small horse,  but one not worthy of competing in quality Alw1x races unless given favorable circumstances.

Please note that the 'neutral' rating that Freedom Child received from this Nove 24th did not to be an error as his subsequent effort was nothing to be excited about.

I could go on and on regarding the comic value I feel the 'key race' method provides unless dealing with lightly raced maidens, quarter horses or greyhounds.

1:08 and change

Not saying AK wasn't able to run in the Belmont. My point was there were other races ahead in the year for him. Sure if he was still a contender for the Triple Crown,that's a different story,providing he remained sound. That wasn't the case,wasn't no Triple on the line.

Prior to reading any rebuttals, please allow me to amend the list of reasonable applications of the 'key race' concept to read just QHs or greyhounds.

Sunland Park - Sunday, March 24, 2013.

Race 11 - 5:40 PM     $1 Daily Double /$1 Exacta /Trifecta /$.10 Superfecta/.50 Super Hi 5

STAKES

Sunland Derby (Grade III)

Purse $800,000.  For Three Year Olds. Weights; Colts-Geldings 122Lbs. Fillies 117Lbs. First preference; lifetime earnings in graded stakes, second preference; highest lifetime earnings.Horses excluded at time of entry to receive full refund of all payments. Closed Friday, February 1, 2013 with 225 nominations. One And One Eighth Miles.  

PP

Horse

Virtual

Stable

A/S

Med

Jockey

Wgt

Trainer

1 Just Win Baby (FL)   3/R L A Quinonez 122 O L Garcia

2 Abraham (KY)   3/C L J R Velazquez 122 T A Pletcher

3 Stormdriver (LA)   3/C L R Eikleberry 122 K Eikleberry

4 Shakin It Up (KY)   3/C L D R Flores 122 B Baffert

5 Saint Prado (KY)   3/C L R Bejarano 122 J Bonde

6 Dry Summer (KY)   3/R L C D Madeira 122 J H Marr

7 Govenor Charlie (KY)   3/C L M Garcia 122 B Baffert

8 Mudflats (KY)   3/G L E A Maldonado 122 D F O'Neill

9 Show Some Magic (KY)   3/C L L Contreras 122 H Dominguez

HORSE #1.......B.U.L.L.E.T !

Plod Boy Phil,

How did you rate Oaklawn Saturday?

PLOD:

Please refrain from providing other useful handicapping tools to those that refuse to believe.  LOL...

PBP : You should listen to your boy 1:08, he knows what he's talking about.  

1:08 : How long have you been a subscriber to Racing Flow ?  Would you say it's worth the fee you're paying ?

derbygal : Thanks for the Sunland Derby lineup, I like the Governor here, wonder what his ML is.

Rusty-

The amount of Closing that occurred at Oaklawn Park on Saturday was nothing more than the amount of closing our track and distance specific models would expect based on each individual race flow.  Thus, a Closer Bias did not exist in our opinion. Since there were 11 dirt races for us to use in making the calculation,  it is as sound a bias figure as we could realistically expect to have.  

I will not speak to the perceived 'dead rail' other than to note that the nature of dirt racing in this country is for horses to close on the outside.

Note that the Friday card was by our calculations an identical surface to Saturday. If time permits, you may want to watch those replays as a means of comparison.

JayJay:

Here is how I see it.  There are several types on this blog:

- Those that do this (wagering) for a living and know it all (Vet)

- Those that just want to share an opinion and are probably decent handicappers using their own methods.  (Most everyone here)

- Those that provide immense insight not necessarily that influential in handicapping races (Coldfacts)

- Those that want to save the planet and all the animals first (Mike)

I fall into the second category.  I have subscribed to PLOD's product and find it immensely useful as an additional handicapping tool.  When I handicap and match up with an upgrade the win/place % has been tremendous.  I generally tend to wager on more races than they provide info on but that's just me.  I also do not wager on everything they present.  You still have to handicap the race and see if their upgrade fits in your mind.  I can say I have hit several big plays just over the last few weeks that included help from PLOD's upgrades.  Just as one example I singled Bashaar (a PLOD upgrade) on 6 different P4 tickets at Oaklawn Rebel day.  I ended up playing Oxbow and Den's Legacy (PLOD Upgrade) in the Rebel on the same tics.  I still had to hit Tiz Miz the race before and the horse in the last on my own but I did.  If Oxbow stays up it's HUGE payday for me.  But I made big WP bet on Bashaar anyway so still had a great weekend.  The fee is worth it for me when I play $50 WP tics, $10 exactas and doubles, and multiple dollar P4's.  Not trying to sell you on it, just stating it's a very useful tool when part of your handicapping.

JayJay:

Here is how I see it.  There are several types on this blog:

- Those that do this (wagering) for a living and know it all (Vet)

- Those that just want to share an opinion and are probably decent handicappers using their own methods.  (Most everyone here)

- Those that provide immense insight not necessarily that influential in handicapping races (Coldfacts)

- Those that want to save the planet and all the animals first (Mike)

I fall into the second category.  I have subscribed to PLOD's product and find it immensely useful as an additional handicapping tool.  When I handicap and match up with an upgrade the win/place % has been tremendous.  I generally tend to wager on more races than they provide info on but that's just me.  I also do not wager on everything they present.  You still have to handicap the race and see if their upgrade fits in your mind.  I can say I have hit several big plays just over the last few weeks that included help from PLOD's upgrades.  Just as one example I singled Bashaar (a PLOD upgrade) on 6 different P4 tickets at Oaklawn Rebel day.  I ended up playing Oxbow and Den's Legacy (PLOD Upgrade) in the Rebel on the same tics.  I still had to hit Tiz Miz the race before and the horse in the last on my own but I did.  If Oxbow stays up it's HUGE payday for me.  But I made big WP bet on Bashaar anyway so still had a great weekend.  The fee is worth it for me when I play $50 WP tics, $10 exactas and doubles, and multiple dollar P4's.  Not trying to sell you on it, just stating it's a very useful tool when part of your handicapping.

1:08 and a lot of change,

I gave you my top 3 KY Derby horses for free on the Derby Dozen list. I see you now have the exact same 3 horses, only Itsmyluckyday at #2. Why the sudden love for Hear the Ghost, an abvious downgrade? Did you have a point about the Belmont Stakes and horses that win at 1 1/2 miles?

upgrade/downgrade (Flow)= wake up/already peaked (KY Donkey method)

Coldfacts, I don't recall Freedom Child, I'll look for the replay and his pp's. The Spiral looks like a dart board, I'd like to single a horse in the double with PURE FUN. I'm considering Saint Prado in the $800,000 Sunland derby.

1:08 :  Fair enough.  I understand what the tool was from the beginning, that it wasn't going to give me winners left and right.  I viewed it as a tool, I told him initially that I thought it was the closest thing I've found (at that time) that might actually help me handicap based on splits (not knowing fully what it was).  What swayed me away was when he said he doesn't consider how the race was ran, nor the jockeys which was fine with me.  I just decided it wasn't a tool I was going use.  I told him good luck with it.  I'm glad to hear it works for you.    My problem with him though is that when his "upgrades" win, it was "their" pick, if not, it was just an "upgrade" and that users needed to handicap the race.  Well, that and he can't seem to accept other people's way of handicapping (anything that can't be quantified is pretty much a waste of handicapping time.)

You had to remind me about the P4 at Oaklawn on Rebel day, that was painful day for me.

Who's your pick for the Spiral ?  I need a longshot as I'm sticking with the most likely favorite, Uncaptured.  A little intrigued by MNiM and Channel Isle, not sure what their odds are but I'm guessing it'll be higher than 8-1.  I don't know if Uncaptured is 100% fit, but I really just want him to hit the board, not necessarily win it.  He just needs extra points so he doesn't have to "peak" in the Blue Grass to make it to the Derby.  If he hits the board in both races, he's in.  

Sunland Derby : Now this looks like a fun race.  I think GC will surprise in here, he needs to be closer to the pace though.

Good luck with your picks!

FA:

Do you actually read anything or should I say comprehend anything before you fire off your crap?

Forbidden Apple -

You have clearly slid down the slippery North Slope.  On the bright side, at least you won't land on a stake (winner).

You are all about blog cred.

Forbidden apple.....almost all the low bet "peaked" horses have lost....super99 at 6/5....you think i play chalk, list horses i havent even bet...only 2 of them....why no credit on those "peaked" horses that lost?.....and heres a little gift...i like big chalk in the sunland derby....but it'll be too low to bet.....................to ANYONE ON HERE! challenge me! you can pick 2 full cards, any track, any day......loser leaves blog for 2 or 1 week....your choice.............still no one will try to beat me..........

Forbidden apple is like the guy that show up to the basketball courts, with sweat bands on.....wishes he knew how to play, but has no game..............i will beat you ALL DAY!  come on son......try me......show me your game.........................and anyone who doubts me...........shandler says "hi"

so...........for anyone who has missed it......jj will not join the racing flow.................nice to clear up the confusion!  p.s. jj has a dart board tourney coming up this saturday,at the SAYTHESAMETHINGOVERANDOVER PUB.

It looks like the flow team just woke up!

I read everything, what's your point? The Belmont Stakes is the only race that anyone talks about on dirt at 1 1/2 miles. As if turf races do not count for anything. Why trash the Belmont Stakes? You simply called horses that win at this distance slow at other distances, odd and not true.

Plod, The only thing slippery around these parts is the foot of snow that just landed. Stakes races are where I make the most money, plenty of stakes winners in the near future. What, you are the only person that can pick a stakes winner? I'm all about bringing home more money than what I started with. The Derby Dozen is fun and a weekly update. I just landed on a Bright Thought. And you are about?

1:08 and change

Really? You're somewhat correct some humans I know wouldn't be worth saving. That's no joke.

KY Vet,

You are probably Shandler. You keep picking favorite after favorite. By the way, I'm 6'4" and I do have some game. I'd play a game of basketball for money, not a problem. All three of you are the same, downgraded. Someone has to fight back and push a bully right back. I have been saying that you confuse yourself and you never respond. How is a 93 beyer good for one horse, but not another? The answer is when you bet on it. This other guy called Hear the Ghost a sprinter. At least I don't need to pay money for someone else to handicap a race for me.

And.....  think you really over estimate your abilities by like a million miles. Seen it before. lmao

Childish, why try to make a point to 3 guys who are never wrong and know everything.

Phil

So you don't think Freedom Child has the ability to improve? I'm not the least bit concerned about a work from Nov. Give me a break.

FA -

Surley you haven't forgotten North Slope - the horse you predicted would be a stakes winner.  I downgraded that one's MSW win. The same horse the VET said 'sucks' before getting trounced in his Alw1x race.  

The 'blog cred' reference was in rebuttle to your claim that it means nothing to you, yet you constantly rehash your biggest claim to fame, Hear the Ghost and now Bright Thought.  For those unaware of what I'm referring to, see the end of the 'Purple Egg' blog.  

If you have a problem with work of Donovan and Blewitt,  send your resume to NYRA.  At the very least,  write a poison free letter to the producers of the program.

Forbidden Apple

Some think they are never wrong. Honest to God they make me laugh....at them.

I like the McPeek dbl.

I bet zero dollars on North Slope. His career is not over because of one race. Are you correct 100% of the time?

Not even a mention of a world record. What kind of horse racing show is that? One guy is a killer handicapper after the race and the other guy handicaps and sets the morning line. The morning line is not important to me, but many people are swayed by it. So why also have him handicapping races?

Every month more winners appear, they are just the latest. Every single handicapper and handicapping show rehashes after a weekend of racing. I thought that was part of what blogs are useful for. You say poison because you detest anyone that questions you or your followers. I think you are here to gain followers and credibility.

Mike -

A November work....what ?

Freedom Child's MSW win at GP going 9f is slightly better than it looks.  Yes, I think the horse is capable of good things down the road,  though running w/out lasix is a disadvantage.  I think he'd be best served facing Alw1x foes in his next start.  

By the way, my comments earlier were to 1:08 and a lot of change. Are you his big brother? He's the speed and you are the plodder, I get it. Bashaar your coconuts together and you can come up with winners.

My point was how you conveniently remember HtG with nearly every post directed at me,  yet you forgot North Slope.  

Plod,

I apologize for linking you with Hear the Ghost. But you did lable him a sprinter and an obvious downgrade. So if a horse debuts at 1 1/8 miles, does that make him a marathoner? This is PURE FUN, nothing to get bent out of shape over. I never have a problem admitting when I am wrong, and then I move on. Again, I bet zero dollars on North Slope and yes he did run like a turtle stuck in mud.

Fugue for Tinhorns,

Pure Fun made me plenty of cash last out in the Hollywood Starlet with her hair raising finsih. She is clearly my top KY Oaks horse. I bet Taken by the Storm at Keeneland last year, I love his pedigree. Last out I picked against him with Craving Carats who layed a purple egg. He does have a big chance in the Spiral at 12-1. His recent workout was 59 4/5 and Pure Fun went in 58 2/5. That is a smart play. I'll use him along with Balance the Books who completed a nice exacta for me at Saratoga with Joha. And maybe Black Onyx who looked sharp last out, he beat a few good horses too.

Forbidden Apple,

I agree with you regarding the Spiral. However, Fear the Kitten won his debut on Keeneland’s   Synthetic track.  

His four subsequent starts have been on dirt. Apart from Churchill Downs that favors Turf/Synthetic type horses, he has struggled on dirt.

Despite his struggles on dirt he was able to finish 3rd in the Lecomte and second in the Southwest.

Will take Charge finished a badly beaten 6th in the Southwest and returned to win the Rebel.

Fear the Kitten will be returning to his preferred surface and based on his dirt performances  he will be the horse to beat.

Plod Boy Phil,

“I could go on and on regarding the comic value I feel the 'key race' method provides unless dealing with lightly raced maidens, quarter horses or greyhounds”

I do not profess to be a bright as you are. Consequently, I neither  understand the above statement nor its relevance.

The cold facts:

Promising colts Orb, Revolutionary and Transparent were entered in a MSW race on 11/24/2012. The race would be the 4th start for each colt. Freedom Child who was making his second start was also entered.

FC led the race and turned into the stretch 5L in front of Orb who by then had occupied second. Orb was fully extended to eliminate the deficit and to sustain the advantage gained.

Revolutionary and Transparent finished 3rd & 4th without any chance of troubling the winner and runner up.

Orb, Revolutionary and Transparent are 2 to 3 months older than FC and had a 3 race advantage.

Only Orb was able to narrowly defeat him.

Given all the above facts, in my world your 'neutral' rating does not compute. It is inconceivable that any reliable evaluation system would produce such a result if pertinent information was used  to determine said result.

Plod Boy Phil,

re: Oaklawn track

Thanks for the response. I have to disagree.  It was a objectively slow (Coldfacts didn't seem to catch this) and arguably biased -- I think there was only one winner up near the pace:  Gentlemen's Bet in the last race.  He happened to be the favorite (I bet big against him in the context of the track) but he won, and I'm considering him an "upgrade" when he steps up next time.  You were right, I think, when you ribbed me for saying the track had changed -- I think it was that way all day, though it might have gotten "heavier", I just didn't care to notice because I had won a couple early.

This is one of those cases where I have a choice of believing you or my lying eyes.  I played the whole card and put a lot into it and it's burned into my memory -- I hope I have the opportunity to profit from this in the next several weeks as I see some of these runners making their returns, where I will make "upgrades" and "downgrades". The two biggest betting days I've had in the past half years were this Saturday and the Breeder's Cup and to my eyes SA and Oaklawn had different but strong biases.  That you differ makes me skeptical of your methods.

You may have a better point about the "dead rail" -- I took that a little on faith from one of the jockey's comments, though I did note the consistent outside paths.

Coldfacts-

Freedom Child exited the above mentioned race and finished 3rd, off at odds of 8-1. He was beaten by Saint Vigeur and Wabbajack. How was a 'neutral' analysis of his Nov 24th effort so readily deemed faulty?

Rusty -

You certainly are entitled to your opinion. I appreciate the time and thought that went into composing the response.

I did find the following interesting:  "I just didn't care to notice because I had won a couple already".  This goes to a point I've made in the past regarding what I believe are the unavoidable pitfalls in the subjectively based analysis of races and race tracks.  When one has a vested interest in the results of races in which they have spent time in handicapping, the impact of pre-conceived notions will inevitably sway their observations. Only when the results stopped fitting your expectations did you begin to find a reason for those the unproductive results.  It is for that reason that I recommended that you watch the replays of the Friday card, knowing that you had not spent hours handicapping the card.

I've enjoyed the exchange of views - differing opinions is the nature of the game. Keep me updated as Rebel day card runners return.

Best of racing luck.

Plod Boy Phil,

So appraising the competitiveness of runners in a race - i.e., the "key race" method -- is "comic"?  How about the "negative key race" method?  I'm thinking of the Remsen.

I have a feeling I'm not the only one posting lists here are waiting with bated breath to see if the Florida Derby will have the makings of a key race for the Derby.

Plod Boy Phil,

"This goes to a point I've made in the past regarding what I believe are the unavoidable pitfalls in the subjectively based analysis of races and race tracks.  When one has a vested interest in the results of races in which they have spent time in handicapping, the impact of pre-conceived notions will inevitably sway their observations."

A shorter way of saying this is that when bettors lose they look to make excuses.  I completely agree.

I took a look at the results and I'm going to go with my original impression from Saturday night.  This track changed over the course of the day.  I think it was honest early and slower and biased late.  I won early(ier) with two singles, Richmond in the 7th and Diamond Creek in the 2nd.  Both won on or near the pace.  Meanwhile, races 1, 3 and 4 saw the same, winners on or near the pace.  So I'm not surprised I did better when I was playing for a track I expected to be honest or biased for speed.

I can see why you don't buy it, but I'm convinced that the Azeri and Rebel, and maybe the one Bashaar won were run on a deep and biased track and I wasn't wrong not to perceive it earlier.  

I'm going to do upgrades/downgrades on horses in the final four races on the card. I'll upgrade the 2nd place horse in the 8th, Betweenhereandcool, Oxbow, Gentlemen's Bet, Don't Tell Sophia, Songs and Sonnets and downgrade Bashaar, WTC, Tiz Miss Sue and any other horses that closed strongly the last part of the card.  I'll note the horses and let you know in future how these horses did.

Plod Boy Phil,

All the races where early speed won, including the 11th race, were 6f.  All the ones where I complain of a bias, and where closers came wide off the pace, were route races.

I wonder if there's an explanation for that.

Plod Boy Phil,

Eureka!  The 6f chute is biased for speed!  

I'm not completely sure whether I'm just kidding.

1:08 and change

What's your problem with me regarding being an advocate for retired racehorses?

You should try it sometime and take a break from attempting to cash $2 tickets.

Rusty-

re: Key Races/Negative Key races

The key race method assumes that all horses from a common race are the same.  That is, each gained equally from the experience and that the race had the exact same impact on each individual's form cycle.  It also assumes that the race was somehow beneficial to all participants regardless of their running style in the race.

We prefer to isolate races that may have benefitted one style or another.  We do this within a few days of a race being run.  The idea is to cash runners before the 'italics' begin to show.  For instance,  imagine a race which we deemed closer favoring.  Depending on the early position of the eventual winner of that race,  one or several horse may be upgraded - these will be speed horses that were too close to the early action.  If and when one or two of these upgraded runners win their next starts,  the uninformed betting public will begin to wager on all runners from the race, even those that may have benefitted from a favorable scenario.

As for the Remsen (and the KJC)  each race received a neutral rating from us, despite the lofty speed figures each was assigned.  It's worth noting that in each race,  three horses were close at the finish.  Such results often beg the question was the race as good as it appears based on final time driven analysis.  Another point worth noting is that much like the BC,  there tends to be a lag time before many of the participants are seen again, thus the subsequent results that may provide insight into the value of the race or races are often not truly part of the same form cycle and are thus harder to evaluate.

One more point regarding the Remsen and KJC.

Since all runners were deemed 'neutral' exiting each race, not a single one of the multiple failures from the two events has attracted a single betting dollar from this Flow purist.  

Plod Boy Phil,

Sure, I understand your method here and that calling something a "key race" is kind of unscientific -- but as far as quick ways of sizing up horses, I think it's a really good one -- for most people, like me, it's handy because a lot of "science" is misapplied anyway.  California had a few key races on the trail last year.

I'm actually really interested now to know if you or anyone has ever seen sprints run with a different "flow" or bias vs. routes, if anyone's encountered this before or would have an explanation.

Mike, I have made donations to Old Friends.  

You're simply like an advocate for gun control.  

Rusty -

With the exception of the first 1/4 mile or so of the OP routes,  it's the exact same racetrack as the sprints races. The notion that the track was different for sprints or somehow kept changing back and forth is really absurd considering the perfect weather conditions.  If ever there was a track for a handicapper to study, it would be OP as they run just one sprint distance and just two route distances.

If a handicapper does not know what is expected to occur given the Flow (a single race measure) or pace of a race,  it's difficult to get a handle on what a series of winners coming from off the pace or on the pace really means.

As for Bashaar and Tiz My Sue, you'll see that each spent a good portion of the race on the supposedly 'dead rail' (TMS was there longer than the Bashaar),  unless of course you want to believe it was a good rail on the backside then 'went bad' somewhere midway on the far turn.

Plod Boy Phil,

Yeah, I don't know what to say as far as the distances. I'm going with my conclusion that there was a bias during the late route races and keep track of the next outs for those runners.  So I'll let you know.

Vet: you're killing me with the hoops references. Lmao

Coldfacts,

I have no fear of kittens, only litter boxes. The Spiral is wide open, I'm simply excited to see Pure Fun romp again. Balance the Books, Taken by the Storm, and Black Onyx are my top 3 in the Spiral.

KY Donkey & 1:08 and a lot of change,

You guys talk and talk, I do not see you posting any winners. Can either of you even get out of your own way on a basketball court, be honest? Were you ever athletes or in training for anything? You are both easily triggered into angry states, obvious downgrades.

Mike Relva,

I always wondered why Funny Cide was never given a chance to race on turf. And why is he retired in KY when he is a NY Bred? He belongs in NY, at the Bobby Frankel division of Old Friends.

Forbidden DICKENS CIDER! Maybe funny cide won the derby! Maybe because people go see champions at the horse park..............yea! lets put funny cide in VITOS DELI in BROOKLYN's parking lot in the back! FUGET ABOUT IT!...........somethin tells me you need a DICKENS CIDER!

cider man.....challenge me! lets do this....post picks 2 whole cards of your choice.....whats so hard?..........

heres yet another horse that peaked already........look for MAC THE MAN to go off form! i'm sure no credit again when he loses....spiral is what this horses form will be...

That was really hilarious, "challenge me!!!"   .....  hahaha

Coldfacts,

Do you know what year lasix became legal in NY?

An entire card, you can never even give one horse in a prep race. Are you busy handicapping Delta Downs and Penn National tonight? Take last saturday's S.A. card, I picked 2 races and bet on 2 races. I do not bet on every single race, that's dumb. Can you play basketball? Were you ever an athlete? You always gloss over other peoples comments with your own idiotic attacks. Come to Saratoga over the summer and try to beat my money out of me. And I'll Bashaar you and your can of Keystone light. I'm very easy to find, look for a tall white guy cashing tickets in the Clubhouse. I missed all of 3 days last year, I'm always at the finish line. Try me!

KY Donkey,

It's clear that you have never heard of the retired horse park in NY. You are the kid on the school bus who never shuts up and iritates others. I'm the guy who stands up for the little guys you pick on and then you leave the bus crying.

Race 9 at Gulfstream tomorrow, Baffle Me 4-1 with Rosario up. He should wake up.

Spiral Prediction :  11 out of the 12 horses will lose!!  You don't believe me????  Huh ??? WATCH AND LEARN!!!   I want credit for this!  Someone better say something and notice me... I'll beat you all !!!!  Right here on the internet, I AM KING !!!!!!!!!!  I'm PEAKING !!!!

Channel Isle, Uncaptured on top of MNiM and BtB for the tri and super.

JayJay,

Did you read any of my posts from last night? I had 3 expert handicappers letting their racing knowledge flow down the track.

Dammit!!

I thought this was just a recurring nightmare...

CALGON!...

Thankfully I dream in Technicolor and not Black and Grey.

Relva, what's up?

Tell us how you really feel..

Forbidden Apple,

In the Spiral I will be going all in on Taken By The Storm.

He has improved significantly as a 3YO and the fact that he was produced from a well bred unraced mare excites me.

FA : Yes, been kind of following it.  With regards to KY, you really can take this guy serious, he's the blog clown.   He's so jealous of Coldfacts because he's not getting any attention at all lol.  He's desperate to be noticed.  As with PBP, I knew after that "friend downgrade" comment you posted, he'll be on you and will be monitoring anything you post on here and attacking you until a new one comes along that "downgrades" him lol.  I called it too, right after you posted that downgrade, I posted he'll be on you.  I know from first hand experience.  His followers will be there when PBP doesn't have an answer.  They're the backup lol.

Spiral: I will be using Channel Isle and Fear the Kitten in some type of exotic bets. Sunland Derby will be using Abraham in a mixture of wagers.  

Forbidden Apple

Got to agree with you about Funny Cide. Always been a fan of this  horse and his trainer. He's the only horse at the park I've encountered that doesn't seem to enjoy attention from fans. Suprised he isn't in NY somewhere.

1:08 and change

You don't have the first clue what you're talking about. It seems to rub you the wrong way when someone is interested in horse welfare.

Carlos

How's it going? Thought this crap ended when Shandler crawled off to Miami.

Spiral: Black Onyx, Balance The Books, My Name Is Michael, Uncaptured.

"Or... you could use The Wabbajack! Didn't see that coming, did you?"

-Sheogorath, the Daedric lord of insanity

My daughter has been playing Skyrim for a while now. Didn't think I would see the Lord of Insanity honored with a horse named after his bizarre magic staff. If my Majestic Warrior-Our Majestic Cat foal had been a colt, I wanted to name him Kharjo, after a Khajiit (human-form big cat) character. But it was a filly.

Mike,

Can you read?  Donations to Old Friends.

Keep dreaming of your utopian race horse world where nobody ever gets hurt.  It's a grueling game for these animals.  Inujuries happen.

FA,

Be careful what you wish for.  Don't really care how tall you are.  I'd drop threes all day on your A$$...

JayJay,

All caps and exclamation points was last year's iteration.  It's ellipses now, man.  

Shorter version:  ...---...

Sunland Derby: Midnight Lute cousins, and Just Win Baby. 4,7,1.

1:08 and change

Must be a b- - - h living with a chip on your shoulder, everyone on the planet saying how stupid you are and proving them correct.

Yes Mike, it is awful and I don't know how I go on.  Please get me some help my savior.

Rusty : hehe, i stand corrected.  I will make this my signature reply to his posts then :   ...i...

Sunland Derby :  Govenor Charlie, Dry Summer on top of Stormdriver and Shakin.   If Shakin' It Up wins, I'll have no winning tickets.  I'll put some money on Stormdriver on top of those 3, I'm thinking Stormdriver will probably be 6-1 ML, juicy enough for me as Shakin will probably be 8-5 on here with Dry Summer maybe 9-5 or 2-1.

Coldfacts : What do you think of Govenor Charlie ?  I watched his maiden win  against Footbridge and was pretty impressed the way GC came back on him after being after Footbridge went ahead by about half a length and GC was actually starting to pull away at the wire.  I'm not talking about the Kentucky Derby, just for the Sunland.  I think if Martin can get him to settle in the 3rd spot, he'll have a big chance of getting to the wire first.

Mary : Is Just Win Baby's owner, the aussie golfer ?

Forbidden Apple,

"An entire card.... I do not bet on every single race, that's dumb."

I resemble that remark.

Keep in mind those who don't have the luxury of being tall, gringo Saratoga hotwalkers.  Some of us only get away occasionally to indulge and we have to cram it all in when we do.  I just handicapped and played two full cards this weekend, twenty-two races, the last full day of racing I'll probably get to enjoy until the Derby, (and it was in a lousy simulcast joint).  Unfortunately the pursuit of action can sometimes be at odds with the pursuit of money.

What happens if the 1st and 2nd horses in the Derby were from the All Others, everyone that plays the Futures Exacta gets crap ?

KY VET :  How much are you putting on Flashback in Pool 3 ?  He's got Gomez now... he's not a broken horse is he ?

COLDFACTS:

Reading your exchanges with Jersey Boy: he has a law degree, is married to a lawyer, does not practice law. Hmmmm.

Ask him if he's been disbarred.

Never say I never did you nothing.

Boom!!! Race 4 at Gulf.  Jane of all trades! 7-1 My pick combined with Plod upgrade, bold I might add, equals winners baby!

Very surprised at the 7-1 off odds from the 4-1 ML.  Guess many thought there was too much speed in the race....not.  JoAT recorded a modest 'vs Zip' MSW win and a strong 'vs Zip' upgrade in her last.  

Just need the 'impossible 8 in the 5th for a nice 1x1 DD hit.

3/23/13-Turfway Park- R-10, The HCCR Spiral Stakes, 3yo, 1 1/8th mile, Tafeta:

#5-My Name is Michael

#12-Capo Bastone

#1-Balance the Books

#3-Uncaptured

interesting race, only one horse, Balance the Books, currently shows up on Pete's top twenty.

Is this a desperate attempt to make the Derby by Uncaptured's connections? ..I don't know. Could he possibly be ready for this race?....Doubt it, but I really don't know. Then again..

Balance the Books.. is this the best spot for him? ..I don't know, but think he is a good one...we'll see.

Best horse, most likely ready for this, My Name is Michael,..so I think he will win, would love to see him make the Derby.

Longshot, your guess is as good as any, I'll try Taken By the Storm.

No, Jay Jay. The Thoroughbred owner/breeder and the golfer have different middle names.  

Boom! Race 6: Horse woke up! Drenched the field with dust!  108 and PLOD match picks = $$$ LMFAO!

re:  Drenched - GP R6

4th time the charm betting non-front runners from the Extreme Race for Speed won by the since downgraded North Slope (runner-up Oisins Town also was DGed after the Feb 2 race). Previous bet failures were Hardest Core (18-1), Posse Attack (10-1), and Autobahn Legend (?). Note that Drenched clearly performed the best of the previous lot in the Feb 2nd race.

Cassandra.Says:

No.

Are you the mythical daughter of King Priam and Queen Hecuba of Troy?

Once again, need the 'impossible' 12 horse in GP's 7th for a 1x1 DD hit

Autobahn Legend was 51-1 in his return out of the Feb 2 race at GP mentioned above. He jumped over a fallen horse down the backside, stumbled, then, from far out of it, he rallied impressively to be beaten a length for 2nd.  

Good call Andy Serling on Kara's MP - he tweeted about the AQ 8th race winner last night here at BH.  

Baffle Me - nicely done FA.

GP R10

11 Constrictor - impressed two back on the turf when closing well despite a very speed favoring scenario

Look what I did now.... :)

www.facebook.com/photo.php

Then I played this online after I left the track... alive to 3 horses on the last leg of the late P4 at SA...  all long though lol but I got a good feeling about it!

www.facebook.com/photo.php

But for now, going to head back to cash me ticket !  I think I'll be playing night races tonight hehe...

Way to go, Jay Jay.  Spend small, win big!

And P.S., my friend's horse is your single :)  

Smiley face !

Congrats

Florida Gulf Coast = Court Vision

2/24/13-Sunland Park, R-11, Sunland Derby, 1 1/8 mile,dirt:

#6 Dry Summer

#9 Show Some Magic

#3 Stormdriver

#4 Shakin It Up

gotz2gowloctalnt

JayJay,

Good job using Russel's Run in the third race.  He came out of his race great and trainer Oscar Garcia left for Sunland Park to saddle Just Win Baby on Sunday in the Derby.  Momentum.

Mary : Yeah, I saw that Blues is now trained by Jerry and thought he was too tough for the field.  I'm glad Jerry's got him, not sure when he got him though.  My late P4 was anticlimactic, I knew it was a losing ticket halfway through but I was hoping no one would have the 8 and pay 3 out of 4 ...  I'm going to play $36 P6, I don't really want to spend that much but I figured it's a good investment.  Let me know if you have any singles, I'll give ya 5% if my ticket wins hehe.

PBP : Thanks (if that was for me).

Aluminaut :  I was looking for longshots in the 3rd and he was one I saw with the jockey change.  I should've played the Espinoza double but I can't play everything.  I'm strictly a P4 player.  I might throw some money on JWB on Sunday, now that you mentioned it.  Who do you like in the Spiral ?

Loved the article about Mac The Man in the Racing Form, and I will be rooting for him and his connections on Saturday, meanwhile, I have enjoyed a good Winter of unlocking winners at The Great Race Place, and hopefully it will continue through Spring! Saturday, I have unlocked a few beauts, and I wish to share them with my fellow bloggers! Race 4, #4 Baby Blake (2-1), Race 5 #6 Tenkiller Kid (6-1), and I like him a lot! race 7 I like #2 Sky Kingdom (9-2), #4 Olisblackgold (7-2) and #5 Richard's Kid (9-2) and I will box them...Race 8 #6 Atticus Jack (6-1) I love! Finally, Race 9 I like three horses, one of them a lot--#3 Amulay (8-1), # 6 Jiggin With M K R (5-1), (I like a horse whose dam won at first outing), and I LOVE #7 Top Tizzy, and her 8-1 morning line is mighty juicy! I also like the favorite, Charm Catcher, in the 6th...but those three long shots, Tenkiller Kid, Atticus Jack, and Top Tizzy are live shooters! I only ask that you refrain from betting $100,000 on them, as I would like to get a good price! Good luck to all, especially if you play my guys!

He was Dude's workmate, Jay Jay. They've had him a few months. Happy, improved horse. Remember, he had been running with CC and IHA, had beaten their good colt Nonios?

That offer is not mathmagically enticing, but I don't have a single right now anyway. GL with your P6.

KY cheap talker,

All you do is talk, no winners or picks posted this week. The Baffle Me/Conquesta double made me very happy.

1:08 and a lot of change,

Can you even spell basketball?

Great job posting a winner (Jane of All trades) after the race!

Coldfacts,

Taken by the Storm is light on the beyer scale, needs a big improvement today at 12-1. I'm playing the doubles, keying PURE FUN with 3 horses.

Rusty,

Why does it bother you that I don't bet on every race when I am at the track? I bet 2 races all week, and they both won in Gulfstream's late double yesterday, $28.80. The hotwalking gig is only for 5 months out of the year, I love it. I wake up very early and get to watch horses train. It's a part time hobby for me. The pay is low, but I'm not in it for the money. My regular job pays 4x the rate at the track.

Gulfstream: Race 2 Summer of Fun #4

Deserving post time favorite even with the layoff, this filly is a runner. Win bet.

Race 10 Teaks North #2 might be able to hold off Newsdad, speed has been killing on the turf. Ex. Box and late doubles with #1 Snit Fit and #3 Lovely Dynaformer.

Santa Anita:

Race 7 #4 Oilisblackgold should stalk the pace and run big with hot jockey Maldanado. Doubles with #1 Golden Mexico and #8 Mr. Bossy Pants.

JayJay,

"What do you think of Govenor Charlie"

The following horses have finished ahead of Footbridge:

Belvin

Forrest Boy

Curly Top

Govenor Charlie

Bothe Belvin and Forrest Boy were of the board in their next starts.

Curly Top developed issues after the race and has not been seen since.

Govenor Charlie was fully extended to defeat Footbridge. That race might have affected him adversely.

I much prefer the other Speedy Bob Horse.

Forbidden Apple,

I should have included an emoticon; the tone was meant to be joshing.  I wish I could spend more time at the track than on this blog.  Been to Saratoga once, a Labor Day weekend a decade ago, so I envy you that -- Can't remember that much about the races other than downpours preceded my stay and Orientate ran a very fast race to punctuate it.  And that Jerry Bailey yelled "Who's the crybaby?" at some railbirds complaining about a ride.

Paul Revere: TP 9) Awesome Mama.

Must overcome bad post, Pure Fun, and others. It's all about the first turn.

Forbidden Apple,

How many 2YOs start their careers at 9F? Taken By The Storm debut was over 9F on dirt where he finished 4th. His third race was over 9F on Synthetict and that resulted in a victory.

One 9F race as is the norm for a 2YO in the US but two is very unusual. Channel Isle is another 2YO that has participated in two race over 9F as well.

Taken By The Storm most recent start was over 8F where he recorded a very easy victory in a good time of 1:34.94. while in hand at the line.

His only effort on a synthetic surface was over 9F and that resulted victory.

The relative ease with which TBTS won his last suggest he is much improved as a 3YO.

He has good tactical speed and great acceleration. At almost 17 hands his strides cover a lot of ground.

He has to be the colt to beat.

Balance The Books, Fear The Kitten and Channel Isle will complete by exotic wagers.

Mary Zinke,

Take another look at Taken By The Storm last race.

He has already tackled the distance twice on two different surfaces.

He will be tracking the leaders  with his high cursing speed and he has the closing kick to sprint to the line and hold off the closers.

If Mr. McPeek could get Java War to run so encouragingly against Verrazano off a 3 1/2 months lay off, what will he do with a colt that ran 1:34.94 in hand?

JerseyBoy,

Who do you dislike more Footbridge or me?

“he is still a horse who took 4

starts to break his maiden.”

As a person with a Law Degree you seem to always leave yourself open for serious rebuttals.

The obvious question an opposing Lawyer would pose is - Relevance?

You would not be in a position to provide any significant reason for highlighting the above cold facts.  

If you tried to equate ability to the number of starts taken to break a maiden, then you would be laughed out of court

Real Quite was sold for $17K because of his crooked keens.  He took 7 starts to break his maiden and subsequently came within nose of being the 12th Triple Crown winners.

Your attempt to discredit Footbridge is feeble and is consequently overruled.  

Forbidden Apple,

"Taken by the Storm is light on the beyer scale"

I never focus on Beyers.

Developing horse will improve immensely with each race.

I much prefer to evaluate a horse in motion. Its physical appearance, stride extension when asked and energy level.

Two 9F races as 2YO will tell you far more about a horse than any Beyer figure will.

He didn't appear to need an oxygen tank in any.

It's my belief that they should write a race for horses that just won a MSW race.  Oh yeah, they do. It's called an Alw1x.

Gulfstream

R3) 1 Break Up the Game (8-1): upgrade the last behind the w-w winner of a Speed favoring race. That effort provides support for his prior win that was achieved under a less than ideal Flow. Today's pace appears lively on paper,  so patience will be crucial from the inside draw.

PBP,

Don't adopt JerseyBoy's nonsense you should know better.

Uncle Mo exited a MSW and won the G1 Champagne.

Violence exited a MSW and won the

G2 Nashua.

Flashback exited a MSW and won the

G2 Bob Lewis.

I could give many more examples.

You are likewise overruled.

While I will excuse JerseyBoy for the obvious reasons, you get no such pass as your analytic mind should not have conceived what was submitted as an ill-conceived post.

Coldfacts -

Real Quiet's 7 attempts to break his maiden were at 2, and he followed up with a win in the Hollywood Futurity (G1). At this point in his classic preparation, he had finished second in the San Felipe.

Footbridge may turn out to be a good horse, but he doesn't have time to develop for the Derby the way Real Quiet did.

Fair enough Coldfacts - I do not wish to be lumped in with JB.

That said, I think that as horses mature, that is not 2 yr olds or early 3's, the task becomes much more difficult to accomplish.  This crop is almost into April of their 3 yr old season, thus each MSW winner attempting to skip the next logical step faces bigger challenges than a 2yr old does (two of your examples).

Mary : Yes, I remember him from last years TC trail, I don't recall any news about him moving to Jerry though but again I'm glad he's with him now.  How "friendly" are you with Jerry ?  Did he ever train for you ?  Do you get to see his top horses ?

Coldfacts : Thanks, yeah it'll be a tough race for GC but the field is pretty much maiden winners, Dry Summer is the horse to beat here IMO, not Shakin but let's see which Baffert horse shows up.  I guess we'll see how good Footbridge is depending on how GC runs this race, hopefully he can put in a good showing.  Like you said, all the horses that has beaten Footbridge didn't really do anything after their races, kind of reflects on how good Footbridge really is.   Any news where he's going next ?

Well, a red hot Forbidden Apple held up his end in GP's 2nd,  now it's up to me.

I've never met the man, Jay Jay. My friend is someone else. I haven't owned any race horses, but I did visit their HP barn and a turf  mare that was to run at SA, but was scratched and went to the Keeneland sale. Just a few stalls down, and across, was Point Of Entry, turning 'round and 'round almost constantly.  

Break Up the Game.....oh my !

When evaluating anything written by Coldfacts, remember he once touted a 4yo for the Kentucky Derby.

It is all on the web.

Jersey Boy-

My fault for the implied negative reference to you. I do not wish to be lumped in with anyone.

Good luck.

Plod Boy Phil:

No need to apologize.

This is no big deal to me.

You do not see me blogging at 2am. There is more in my life.

Get rich and laugh.

Can easily do one of those....as well

Taken by storm? the horse to beat? Man, i should have given more money to the brain injury charity at the auction i went to last week! how does coldcuts get dressed in the morning?........This guy is a trip! Taken by storm? youre all in? all that change  that you found in your sofa? wow!

I dont really get how.......but my horse #1 off 6 months,had 1st workout......tied for fastest of the week......not a fan of that, but did 34 and change, breezing with hold............scary!

mac the man......ship sailed.....peaked........goes off form, starting today....

VET-

Had you told us that Pure Fun was going to return to the value of her $22K sale price, then that's worth something.  Mac on the other hand is 10-1 ML.

KY VET

Respect much you write, but I agree with ColdFacts on TBTS.

Cassandra.Says

That's a serious charge. Since you went all in regarding your comment on Jersey Boy why don't you prove it?

Spiral / Sunland:

Nothing for Flow players in either race.

Mary Zinke:

SCORES with Black Onyx and Uncaptured

nice pick mary.....nice win against alw horses....weak weak field......told you....youre the 2nd best on here.......although some talk down to you..........

phil...didnt ask me about pure fun.....look at her form...2 big races.....wonder why she was off so long.....shes got problems....look at her form last year.....bad races, then got real good......there is a reason for those bad ones....and today on wrong lead in stretch.......get off this one.......also, crop report isnt a derby horse........

the man horse......off board in slow race......long list of contenders that i said would go off form.....he wasnt 10 to 1........keep doubting......

another contender bites the dust.....uncaptured.......needs more time off......very bad signs........couldnt even beat alw horses................mark c.....better not push him.......dont do it mark!

dont do it irwin!........crop report isnt derby horse.........you did it to animal kingdom, even after drifting in the derby.........dont do it Barry! call a T.O.! dont push this horse!

VET -

Agree with you 100% on Pure Fun - did not post it here since she was not a true racing flow downgrade, but did e-mail opinion to my 'private stock' players. There's a reason she sold for $22K - watched her beat me twice last year but was never sold on her being a super horse.

I also agreed silently with you on S99 - recall that I upgraded him as part of my 1x1 DD play before the SW,  but did not consider him in the Rebel.  Remember,  I spent a solid decade and a half as a sheet wacko beginning in the later 1980's so I understand the concept of too much too soon.

I want to congratulate Mary again for leading us to the water in the Spiral.

its just logic....plod.....people on here dont get what racing does to horses......a stick can only bend so much, before it breaks.....news flash......jaycito...still not right! baffert...farm time...sheesh!

It's a complex game, no doubt. I was hoping I could find something even close to an upgrade in the Bourbonette or the Spiral, but it simply wasn't there.

I have a few 'blog creds' in pocket from today's easy winner in the GP 3rd, so I'll box the 3-4 in SA's 8th race.

missed that baffert did get rid of jacito....simon c has him.....no change.....lol

ok you want a random pick? sa race 9 #1 is the fav..showed bad sign....ill try to wire with #9 goin back to cali.....wp....why take 3/5 on pure fun when i get 3 to 1 on this horse?

lol...this is what makes this game interesting......the fav...tries to get out all the way, finally drifts out to 8 path down stretch, and holds on to win by a nose....my pick gets 3rd...........#1 has something wrong, but still wins.....funny! horses can still run w problems sometimes.....

That was a nice win for Black Onyx.  Watched at the track. Took my son. They had camel and ostrich races today--thought the ostriches would be faster, but then those are birds carrying people.  Anyway, I'll send Jay Jay my ticket photos because he and I like being bored by our silly friends announcing that they ate  ham sandwiches for lunch,being bored by pal's pet and kid photos, and checking out winning cheap tickets, and we don't think fb leads to being a mouseclick away from a raging affair or revealing super-secret identities. Which brings me to the horse, Red Herring. That was not a positive to go through the bullet works, for any horse foaled in March or May, at every North American track, and have none of them match the previously posted criteria. Take two 1000 piece jigsaw puzzles. Mix them together. Remove a few pieces. Finally, try to form one picture out of the remaining pieces, and there you have it. P.S., had the exacta, too. Gave someone at the track the links to these and other blogs.  He found my stories interesting.

Who's best then?  

Coldcuts bet the ostrich........he is a may foal!

Whoever your keeper is, it must be true love. That's the only explanation.

me! you really should know....see, you people think i'm lying....i kill this sport........but about the horse, what do you want to know? He is an older claimer....and hasnt had 6 months off for years....kinda looks like it has helped him....           kinda not happy about the bullet....it was more like a cannon ball.....but its also hard to not be pumped about it....workout dont mean much, he is just a serious old pro that loves to win, run, train.....kinda like coldcuts.....except without the winning part.....or the other stuff.......ok maybe just the old part..........we will run in 5 weeks........if he loses, at least it will make a few on here happy.........paying it forward!

Anyone have new World record setter Twilight Eclipse?  If so, congrats. Two World records a week apart--signs of an impending Ice Age(lol)?

Congrats also to anyone having the Bourbonette Oaks winner or exotics.

Lady Of Shamrock in the Santa Ana, but have to figure out surrounding races since she should be the fav.

VET -

In all seriousness,  everyoe around you is picking winners here on the blog....$58 winners, $49 winners, $220 exactas,  etc.  You need to step up, soon.

I don't think you lie about your winnings. We could all work on being better winners, no matter how often or infrequently that happens. Probably 67% of the other tidbits of the Dos Equis guy's life are true, but all jumbled together with the 33% poetic license.

PLOD: just want to give you props for another great weekend.  The combo bets were outrageously successful again.  Til tomorrow...

KY VET

Was wrong today with my selection. Agree with you about Crop Report not a Derby horse. You know Irwin,always about the spotlight. Let's hope he does the what's right.

1:08+ -

It's been a solid two days...we were a couple of heads away today with the GP 8-1 and 11-4 to move into the 'just plain silly' category.

Flow on.

I, too, was impressed by the Spiral winner. Nice horse. Nice finish! I plunked a $2 was bet on Mac The Man, as I was rooting for his trainer---alas, the little guy had nothing when the real racing started---he backed out of it so drastically, it would not surprise me if he bled, and I hope that's not the case. Tomorrow I have a major play in the Sunland Derby. There are many angles to use in this game. One in particular has proved, time and again, to be mucho profitable for me. I call it the third race of the form cycle, with a couple of twists---for me,a form cycle begins after a minimum three month layover, or the third race of a horse's career. The twists are these: I look for a horse whose first two races were spaced by 15 days or less, with a minimum 4 fur interim work--- a horse with that pattern will usually regress noticeably into their 2nd start---if they improve noticeably, and they get adequate spacing for start number three, at least 80% of the time, they will run lights out in their third start---not necessarily win, but they will run big---80% of the time this plays out, it is uncanny! The #1 horse, Just Win Baby, ran his first start onFeb 16th. He worked 7fur a week later, then twelve days after his first start, he won for fun, paying $59.60. That is uncommon, and very much so. 2 1/2 weeks later he drills another 7fur. I wish his third start would've been spaced a bit longer than 3 1/2 weeks, but what're ya gonna do? Decades of observation have honed my theory. Just Win Baby is 10-1, and he will likely rise to 15-1. I think he will run lights out, and will box him with both Bafferts, and Saint Prado---make no mistake about it, I am playing Just Win Baby---TO WIN! Big.

Mary :  Nice hit on Black Onyx!  I remembered you after he beat my 3 lol.  I was alive in the P4 to 4 horses, yes, FOUR!! 1, 2, 3, 5...  Anyway, at least one of us got the winner.   I managed to recoup my loses (and then some, many many some) from day racing  playing the night races... check it out :)  I'm telling you, try playing the aussie races, the payouts are huge if you can get lucky.  Only have to watch out what their post position is as it's different from their program numbers.  

I'm happy with Uncaptured's run, I thought a placing to gain some points should be enough for his first race back.  At least he looks like he has not lost a step and that was pretty decent run considering the layoff.  I'm looking for him to hit the board in the Bluegrass to make the field.  I'm really hoping he'll peak in May.

FA : Nice hit on Black Onyx as well, hope you had the exata at least.

KY VET : Dude, you need to stop your obsession with coldfacts.  You need to get out and get some sun, you're rotting inside your cave.  How about you pick a horse that will hit the board, not even win, just anything that will show you actually know how to handicap.

I cannot seem to get behind anyone tom at The Great Race Place, and that's an oddity---I do fancy Quiet Oasis a bit, love the works, love the twin1:12's, followed by the turf works, and I'll play a small wager on her nose....

PBP,

“I do not wish to be lumped in with JB.”

It was not my intension to lump you with the Intellectual Elite but it appeared you aligned yourself with his irrelevant post about Footbridge.

I do regard you as being significantly more rational and respectful than the IE.

“each MSW winner attempting to skip the next logical step faces bigger challenges than a 2yr old does”

Footbridge’s last race was his 4th. The colt that defeated him in his third start will be making his graded stakes debut today in the Sunland Derby.  

While the move from MSW to graded stakes is not recommended for every 3YO, there are those with exceptional ability that can make the transition successfully.

JerseyBoy,

I owe the KY VET an apology. It previously thought inconceivable that his lack of substance could have been surpassed by any other contributor. However, you are proving to be far superior in this department.

It is indeed sad as brain is not something to be wasted.

PATRICK,

“This guy is a trip! Taken by storm? you’re all in?”

By the above statement and other not selected, you were clearly of the opinion that Taken By The Storm had no conceivable chance of winning the Spiral.

Well, he did not win but was on the board. He ran a courage race and was the actual leader turning into the stretch. He got tired

while other were stronger.

Had his ride exercised a little more patience it would have allowed to recover some of the funds wagered in the win and place categories.

He left it all on the track and that's all gamblers can ask of  wagering interests as far too often many lay eggs.

Many of the more fancied colts were MIA.

Your continued attempt to paint me as some sort of crazy person continues to be a miserable failure.

You will secure no recognition for your efforts and you are well advised to access Youtube and select a song tilted Talking Blues”

There is a line that you might find as providing moral or intellectual instruction (edifying)    

“It’s foolish dog that barks at a flying bird.’

Coldfacts:

I think I will get another dog.

To make you happy, I will name the dog Footbridge.

Nothing further to say until I do. I will keep you informed.

Mary Zinke,

Let add my congratulation for you success with Black Onyx. Two of my colleagues were high on him and laughed at my selection Taken By The Storm. They said his last race Beyer was 69 and he would be just ahead of the ambulance.

Well, they were right in one respect and had the last laugh. I have some change left after my wagers on TBTS so I secured two win tickets on Black Onyx. It proved useful in assisting with the acquisition of spirits that aided with the cushioning of  the verbal blows that followed the race.

Your selections have scary names i.e., Her The Ghost /Black Onyx

PATRICK,

I have to make a correction. The Youtube song in not Talking Blues but instead 'Jah Lives'

Cassandra,

I get your point, but dogs are much different animals than horses. It's hard to make a determination of a horse through a television, that's my point.

KY Talker,

Again you are all talk after the race, post some picks before the race. Great call, Mac the Man ran like a hamburger. Wow, I think you did pick Jawbreaker. I bet $80 to win on him, very lucky to win with the hot jockey Maldanado.

JayJay,

No exacta with Black Onyx, I boxed him up with Taken by the Storm and Balance the Books. None of these horse are to be taken seriously going forward.

Rusty Weisner,

Okay, well I think you know what you need to do. Get in your car and drive to Saratoga Springs at the end of July. You will not regret it, this is the 150th year celebration of Saratoga Race Course!

Does anyone like Saint Prado in the Sunland Derby?

FA:

I like Saint Prado and Just Win Baby.  I just can't see One if the Bafferts not winning it so I am off the race.  May play a small exacta 1-5/1-4-5-7 to see if I can beat him.  Nothing worth loading up on in the race.  Think Abraham is a complete toss.

Like Majestic River and Countess Curlin in oaks.  Really like the curlin filly.

Forbidden Apple,

The cold facts do not support your claim that none of the horses in the 2013 Spiral are to be taken seriously going forward.

The 2011, 2012 & 2013 Spiral winners are listed below:

Black Onyx – 1:51.98 (? Derby)

Went The Day Well – 1:51.33 (4th in Derby)

Animal Kingdom - 1:52.32 (1st in Derby)

Animal Kingdom was second in an Allowance race contested over 8F on turf prior to his Spiral victory. The race was completed in 1:34.66.

Went The Day Well won a 1 1/6M MSW on dirt in a of time of 1:44.78 prior to his Spiral victory.

Black Onyx won a 1 1/6M Allowance on Turf in a time of 1:40.99

Ignoring track variances for each year, Black Onyx recorded a faster time than AK and a marginally slower time than WTDW.

While time can be considered to be insignificant, there is no doubt that Black Onyx defeated one of the strongest Spiral field assembled since the installation of the Synthetic surface at TP.

He was also much faster than both previous winners in his race preceding the Spiral.

Coldfacts-

It's interesting that you profess not to use Beyers yet repeatedly post final times of horses from different days without any regard for variants,  even simple ones.  Why not accept that one of the two methods of establishing 'how fast a horse ran' is clearly more sound than the other,  then use personal observations of stride, energy, etc to finalize opinions?

Of course,  just a question,  as we are all entitled to our own methods.

PBP,

I highlight final times just for comparison. They are insignificant if all things are not equal.

Speed is significant but has to be properly measured for effective comparison.

You will note I provided no internal fractions that can impact final time.

Synthetic surfaces are suppose to be more consistent.

The pertinent information in comparing the last three winners of the Spiral is the really the quality of the field they defeated heading into the Derby.

Animal Kingdom and Went The Day Well defeated significantly weaker fields than Black Onyx and he was faster than both heading into the Spiral.

Coldfacts, I did go by the turf to synthetics angle, and that Black Onyx won impressively, imo, over my picks in that allowance race at Gulfstream. The favorites were coming off of layoffs, so I also looked for a horse that was running well/could be improving now. Actually, My Name Is Michael, in my top four, worried me because it took about 5 weeks for him to start workouts again after his last race(which someone mentioned,in the above comments), but I still thought he'd be better than most of the field.Balance The Books was my second choice. Hopefully, he just didn't like the surface, which I call fireplace sweepin's.

I do enjoy reading your comments, not that I always agree, but you present interesting ideas, and your honesty and humbleness are an appreciated contrast.  I wouldn't let taunts about losing picks go, if I knew of my pals likewise negative results of their wagers.  

Okay, but the truth is I was never a fan of Went the Day Well or Animal Kingdom. I had Black Onyx as my 3rd pick yesterday, I thought he was fast enough and would like the artifcial surface. His performance was good, not enough to accept him as a serious threat to my top 10 KY Derby group. Balance the Books was rusty and most likely needs turf. Taken by the Storm ran well, most likely needs turf and was not good enough. The cold facts for me are that the KY Derby is run on dirt at 1 1/4 miles. Animal Kingdom won the KY Derby and what else?

Am inclined to agree with Forbidden on Black Onyx and other synthetic/turf performers that have either not proven themselves on dirt or have failed on dirt.  Went the Day Well had at least shown an affinity for dirt prior to getting good at the right time.  Obviously, Street Sense had similar dirt credentials before prepping on synthetics. Animal Kingdom will likely prove to be the exception,  not the rule.  

On a side note, I found it chuckle worthy that a BH 'handicapper' was thrilled with Crop Report's performance yesterday.

Forbidden Apple

Regarding AK you know after the Belmont he had a series of injuries on and off. He's had his share of injuries.

I know about the injuries, they come with the sport. I still say what has he ever won?

In the Sunland Oaks Midnight Lucky might prove to be a freak. I'm taking a chance that Unusual Way might soften her up and set it up for the stalking Majestic River with J.V. up.

In the Sunland Derby, I'm hoping Saint Prado can stalk Governor Charlie and Abraham and then pounce on them down the stretch. The 1 1/8 mile distance should be a great fit for this lightly raced son of Kitten's Joy. Yes he did just break his maiden, but he improved 25 beyer points off from his June run as a 2 year old. Bejarano does appear to be sitting on 2 very live horses.

Race 9 @ Gulfstream, Sister State breaks her maiden.

In today's 8th at Santa Anita,  we'll take Matthew W's 'third of the form cycle' angle and run with it.

2 Real Conundrum (4-1): has returned since the freshening on the wrong side of two Speed favoring Flows. Blinkers off and switch to trainer's go to guy add to the appeal

Midnight Lucky is a singleton, and the 5-2 M/L is way off---she'll be even money, that is one nice filly, probably the finest in the land! I went deep in race 8, Devon's Ca Ching looks tough in race 9, Midnight Lucky in race 10, then both Bafferts, Just Win Baby and Saint Prado in the Sunland Derby, which looks like a very nice race, with several promising three year olds---that'll happen when you show them the $$$

I, too, am not a fan of comparing times, with no consideration for track/weather variants. The "fact" is I thought Black Onyx looked visually impressive. What makes this game so great, so intriguing, so exciting--is that there are generally no cold facts whatsoever--in "fact", I have been in love with this sport of kings for over 40 years, and the only cold fact I ever came to realize was Spectacular Bid was better than Flying Paster!

Can you say "whoosh"....no Real Conundrum at all.

Best 3 year old(filly or colt)in the country: MIDNIGHT LUCKY

Please send her to the Kentucky Derby, no one will be able to run with her.

Forbidden Apple

Say what you will but find it difficult to believe the horse could run and win on three legs. Have you considered what he may have accomplished if he hadn't been injured. You boast about your basketball skills,could you play on a bad leg?

Please tell me you wouldn't  do backflips if you ever owned a Derby winner. I haven't,perhaps you have.

It was the Sunland Oaks.

In the words of the great John McEnroe,  "You can't be serious".

I'm not even willing to concede the Kentucky Oaks to her.

Predict-

She doesn't get 10f on a bus with a handful of tokens.

Coldfacts-

Add that MSW winner to your list of Graded Stakes winners next out.  Govenor Charlie owned the Sunland Derby.

"Am inclined to agree with Forbidden on Black Onyx and other synthetic/turf performers that have either not proven themselves on dirt or have failed on dirt. "

What? Black Onyx broke his maiden on the Aqueduct Main (not the Inner) in an off-the-turfer and had been second in his debut on Belmont's dirt. He ran poorly at GP once with a new jock, who quickly got the boot. Only THEN did he run and win on turf. It's right there in the PPs. He's no Animal Kingdom; he has won on dirt.

punxsatawney...

she will run all day long, ...first time two turns, in a hold for most of the stretch, sets new track record for distance...even if the track was extremely fast today, she is something special.. she could pull that bus and win.

Mike Relva,

Super Saver also won the KY Derby and then what? Of course I have not owned a KY Derby winner, no reason to write that. And I was only bringing up basketball, because KY Talker brought up the topic first. What do you want me to say, Animal Kingdom was the best horse around since Secretariat?

PlodBoyPhil,

Governor Charlie does look like a serious KY Derby prospect. I am wondering if they will give him another start before the first saturday in may.

Pedigree Ann -

I stand corrected.

Forbidden -

He ran a nice race - wish we had Sunland track models, but it is a lot of work to create and maintain for one race.  Much like the greatest filly since Winning Colors one race earlier, I do not believe he beat much today.

Like Peagram said, "it's up to Bob".

Forbidden Apple

No,of course not. Just saying if a horse is laid up injured,it's hard to win if you're not running.

hey...back from breakfast and gallop on the backside....good food.....horse came out of work good......good news, horse #2's super vet said x ray looked great from ankle....comming to the track in a week or so.....great day handicapping, nice pick plod...had the real con too....flew late...jockey almost messed it up running behind a horse before he got out............fun day......things kinda going too good right now.....hope horse #2 trains good.....ya. heard all these people say she would win the kentucky oaks....that baffert filly....amazing that people dont even know how bad those horses were...i think she only ran beyer in the high 80s, if that.......keep picking good guys.....may the flow keep running.......by the way phil....i havent been posting hardly any picks.....thought everyone wanted me to stop.....

funniest post ever......apple...what has animal kingdom ever won...........wow! really?

Plod....i dont love the filly either....but, thats a workout...wont take anything out of her....she didnt try......but agree people are going a little crazy on her.....

weird blog this.......a maiden getting 10 x the talk....then itsmyluckyday.............why all the talk about these cheap horses......thats why i critic, the fake expert.......i told you, he is claiming being a genius, for getting 4th, in a race where the good horses didnt show up! a weak race.......no derby horse ran this week ok?

VET-

She will know when she gets in the ring for the Oaks (hopefully), that she is facing real horses,  not non-winners and not marginal a modestly talented Cal bred. She'll have to try for the first time from the start of the race - that in itself will make a huge difference in the ease with which it all appears.

People want you to stop posting 20 horses a night two minutes before the race goes off. Put up one or two of your better plays during the day a few hours in advance - it's not going to impact the pool.

owners of Ive struck a nerve....my horse had same injury.....you can come back in 6 months.......youll be back!

VET-

Coldfacts had an opinion on the horse and bet that opinion. That fact in itself is worthy of respect.

Vet

My point exactly regarding AK.

Sure would like to see him run huge next weekend in Dubai.

PATRICK,

"why all the talk about these cheap horses"

Your ignorance precedes you yet again.

A horse you consider cheap today can turn out to be a champion tomorrow. I can cite several examples but you would probably accuse of Plagiarizing information.

The horses being evaluated and on which opinions are posted are young and developing.

Only one that is as insensitive as you are would classify them as cheap.

You clearly have never owned one of these majestic animals.

With each passing day you become more despicable. Have you no shame?

PATRICK,

"thats why i critic, the fake expert"

There is only one contributor that projects himself to be an expert.

This individual has submitted many posts about the fact that he earns a living from handicapping horses.

Always feels it necessary to lecture others and often uses the term 'Watch and Learn'

The said individual often refers to those he considers uninformed as 'You People'

Yes Patrick, these blogs have been inundated  with your claims of being an expert.

Those who you suspect of stealing your thunder, you insult, demonize and accuse of being false experts although no such claims were made.

I have often wonder what drives the hate in individuals like you.

How's this for redundancy?

Dubai World Cup: Royal Delta.

Why redundant? I have never picked against her.

Coldfacts : The Govenor gave a little bit of credibility to Footbridge, now he has a horse that beat him that won his next race.   Jumping up from maiden winner to stakes winner.   Hopefully we'll get to see Footbridge in a stakes race next.

KY VET : All you do is complain about Coldfacts, you really need to put up or shut up.  You critique a lot yet you haven't posted any winners.  The blog is called "Unlocking winners"... that means picking a winner and not boogers.  You're nothing but a wanna be, a fake, a pretender.   If this is really your profession, you need to start looking for a new job.

Hit the late P4 which paid about $50...singling Juarez's horse in the last leg.  $4 investment...I'll take it. I said if GC sit 3rd off the pace, he'll have a good chance but didn't see that coming.  He just destroyed that field.  I like the win but I also know half the field are maiden winners so I'm not sure how good he really is.  I'm not sure I'll even play him in the Derby.

Can either of you read? Other than the KY Derby, what has Animal Kingdom won? This is part of the problem with horse racing, you people think it begins and ends with the KY Derby. Another silly comment, no horse can win without being in a race. Why waste time writing that. The fact is that he has been racing and is on a current campaign.

No correction needed here, I am aware of Black Onyx's dirt form.

I wouldn't have guessed the name  Patrick. That doesn't fit.

Well folks despite my negative views regarding the Kentucky Derby Future Pool wagering options, I could not resist placing a small wager on my namesake Mr. Palmer.

Pool #3 closed with his projected payout at $111.40.

His next start will in the Wood Memorial against wonder horse Verrazano. If he does not secure the requisite point my cash is dead.  However, I am confident he will defeat  the wonder horse.

How could I not wager a colt that goes by name.

Plod Boy Phil,

"Coldfacts,Add that MSW winner to your list of Graded Stakes winners next out.  Govenor Charlie owned the Sunland Derby."

My opinion below has been validated by yet another bit of cold facts.

"While the move from MSW to graded stakes is not recommended for every 3YO, there are those with exceptional ability that can make the transition successfully."

Let me assure you that the above opinion was not submitted from the keyboard of an expert.

Forbidden Apple,

“Can either of you read? Other than the KY Derby, what has Animal Kingdom won?”

I think you are being a bit harsh of Animal Kingdom.

Subsequent to his Derby victory he only won and AwlOC race.

In four G1 races subsequent to the Derby he finished 2nd three times. He has been beaten by two of the best turf horses in the country in his last two starts. He finished a combined 2 1/2L behind two G1 monsters after being on the shelves for 9 months.

No other horse from his crop has performed as well at the highest level of racing.

He is clearly a colt with exceptional ability. However, his PPs will never reflect his true ability if viewed in terms of wins and losses.

He is very good!

Matthew W,

“What makes this game so great, so intriguing, so exciting--is that there are generally no cold facts whatsoever--in "fact”

Your opinion expressed above must be respected. However if cold facts are viewed as essential details then you may need to revisit the basis of said opinion.

What are the essential details that are pertinent in rebutting the notion that that no horse from the 2013 Spiral is worthy of Derby winning consideration?

The 2011 Spiral winner won the Derby. The 2012 Spiral winner finished a troubled 4th. With a better trip Went The Day Well could have been in a photo for first place.

How does the 2013 Spiral winner Black Onyx match up to the 2011 & 2012 winners?

The essential details i.e., cold facts indicate that his race preceding the Spiral was faster than AK and WTDW races prior to their Spiral efforts. He has far more tactical speed and he defeated a much stronger field.

If the 2011 and 2012 Spiral winners were competitive in the Derby there is no reason why the 2013 winner should be discounted as the matchup between three marginally favored the 2013 winner.

My opinion in no way represent a prediction of victory for Black Onyx but instead dispels the notion that he does not belong.

You are at liberty to conclude that essential details are meaningless but that does not make them so.

That's funny Coldcuts... you defending a horse that has finished second multiple times.  Hmmmmm...does Bodemeister ring any bells???  Seems to be a slight contradiction.  I guess Bode doesn't qualify for your "very good" status.

JayJay,

I agree with your assessment.

Footbridge has always been seen as great prospect by his connections.

As I have pointed out to PBP, Footbridge was not an average maiden. His losing time in his second start was faster than Goldencents' winning time in the Sham.

If his connections did not adopt a none Lasix policy he would have broken his maiden long ago and all my attackers would have move on to another issue.

Many discount the impact of Lasix on performance. It was reported recently that a group of owners have decided to take the board of the Breeder Cup to court for their none Lasix policy for 2YO.

Footbridge is a nice prospect that will go on to show his true potential in time.

1:08 and change,

Animal Kingdom was injured and laid up for 9 months.

He returned from injury to compete against horse at the highest level of racing.

He was defeated by two of the top horses in he country by a total of 2 1/2L and you like many other can only view him through  wins and losses.

There is no man blinder than the one who refuses to see.

My point is that they are both great horses....period.

Forbidden

No it's not silly....give me a break. You're ignoring the vast amount of time AK was laid up. I don't think everything ends with the Derby,that's absurd.

You never answered my question. Can you play basketball if an injury doesn't allow it? You're being too hard on this horse.

1:08 and change

Maybe if you continue stirring the pot you can replace what obviously you've lost in life.

Mike,

Are you coldcuts' father? or keeper?

Mike,

The time I spent responding to your ignorance is the only thing I am sorry about losing in life.

1:08 and change

Ignorance? You can pretty much write a book on that subject. Just another angry blogger.

Mike,

You're the one that started taking the personal shots.  I just ended it.

You didn't end anything,but if you need to believe that to get thru your day.....whatever.

Could the 2013 Florida Derby winner turn out to be Narvaez?

His sire and dam sire won the FL Derby.

Take a note from FA...blog is about unlocking winners.  Believe me, I get what you are trying to do with the horse health issues.  But I am sure there is another blog out there for that.

1:08 and change,

"Are you coldcuts' father? or keeper?"

Mike neither mention my ID nor a referenced any of my posts. The relevance of your question is therefore baffling.

You will note I use your registered ID when directing posts to your attention.

Of all the contributors supporting these blogs you have chosen to align yourself with PATRICK.

If this is a true reflection of your judgment, you might as well share his rock.

Anyone that posts on a blog under the name "Coldfacts" has some issues I won't delve into to begin with.  

Sure, I will align myself with the HUMOR that is the VET.  Guy actually brings some levity to this blog.  

You guys take all this personally.  Who has the issues?

How good was Last Gunfighter over the weekend?

1:08 and change,

"Anyone that posts on a blog under the name "Coldfacts" has some issues'

An ID is just an ID. I could have easily used the another.

Dose you ID suggest you are a speed freak?

Cold facts are essential details. I sometimes provide essential details to bring balance to some emotionally driven opinions

My opinion may be different from yours but they as likewise opinions.

An ID does not reflect the position of the individuals.

JerseyBoy  highlighted that I make posts at 2:00 a.m. I cannot understand how intelligent individual can indulge in such nonsense.

I also check my emails, eat and sometime pray at 2 a.am.

Grown men should put away childish tendencies.

1:08 and change,

"Sure, I will align myself with the HUMOR that is the VET.  Guy actually brings some levity to this blog."

If you consider insults and disrespect as humor, kindly ignore all previous exchanges between us.

You have clearly disqualified yourself as individual worth engaging.

108....for years, msn blog, now this one.....coldcuts says people insult him....yet he insults people way more than i.........i post to stupid comments from people that say stupid stuff, and try to pass themselves off as experts......coldcuts is by far, the rudest poster ive seen.....he cant spell, and tries to pass himself off as intelligent.......people on the msn blog asked him why he cannot spell, and he posted that he didnt go past grade 5.......now, he says he owned a horse, bet 40 grand on it, and lost! then had 6 trainers!...you can only bet 40 grand on a horse at a big track, right? the purse would be big, right? Why would someone bet that much? What an embarrassing idiotic story.....no one is that stupid....if you owned 100 horses, how can one have 6 trainers? This guy has always been delusional......wonder why i post about this guy? ive seen how crazy this wacko is.......long history......he copies things from a breeding book/site, then tries to pretend he knows about who he speaks......just a contrarian......

See? you are not worth engaging! This guy is insane.....if you asked him to pick a number from 1-10.....he would say.....Z!

What i am, is fair....if mike says something right.....i will stick up for him.....if plod wins....i will congrats him.....108 says something i think is stupid.........i will say "not as stupid as coldcuts!"...........see? fair.........

re: Midnight Lucky

Some observations by an amateur race watcher:

- Bejarano asks her for some run going to the 1/4 pole with light hand urging and slaps from an un-cocked whip on the right

- passed the 3/16ths, he begins to throw a number of crosses with both hands and can be seen hitting her at least once left handed

- only at the 1/16th pole does he stop using his hands,  but at no time does he 'grab hold' of her.

It was an 8.5f race against simply overmatched foes.  Only one of the others had registered a Beyer fig in the 80's (not counting UW's 87 at Santa Rosa) and that was achieved on a sloppy and notably speed biased track at GP.  I'll give her this much - she was way better than these and the MSWs she beat.

Plod Boy Phil,

Back to back TRs are rare. The next starts for both horses will certainly provide more information.

Sure looked like Charlie was fully extended for a full 1/4 mile with the whip being used with both hands in the final 1/8. He worked hard to get those points.

I guess the timing of the race is the price owners/trainers pay for needing the points and experience. There's no time to do anything else now, is there ?

Like I said...levity.

Thanks Vet.

1:08 and change

In reference to your earlier post. What did you end? I'm still commenting. Don't even suggest I go somewhere else to post my comments,we both know that's not happening.You talk about taking "personal shots". How many have you took against several individuals on here? Pot calling kettle. Now, who's illustrating ignorance?

Forbidden Apple

Regarding everything beginning and ending with the Derby. If that's what I feel why is Cigar one my all time favorite? Last checked he didn't run in the Derby. Many instances it's not about th Derby for me.

KY VET,

You are so uninformed. I have made a very serious mistake by engaging you over the years.

I am not an American. I am from a county that was once under British rule.

The country adopted the English bookmaking system. Bookmakers in England have betting parlors.

Anyone at the permitted age can make wagers in these parlors/shops.

Betting parlors are different from Off track stations. While the money wager in these parlors do not go into the tote the pay outs are based on track dividends. There are some limits

The name of the horse I wagered $10K was Freshly Minted a Jamaican horse. His sire's was Dales Folly a Key To The Mint Stallion.

If you access the Pedigree Online website and hit the icon that follows Dales Folly's name you will see he was sent to Jamaica.

I owned a total of five horses and during this period I used the services of seven trainers for various reasons.

You may want to paint me as I fraud but there are cold facts to verify every claim I have made.

I am not the simple uneducated man I portray myself to be.

Plod....why does the guy keep giving time of race? or track records? with no variant? why? i agree with you on those sunland winners.....its embarrassing, the love they are getting.........didnt he say 40k? now its 10k? 7 trainers?  is it not clear we are dealing with a mentally ill person? not because its a lie, but rather the truth, tell more about the idiotic person we are dealing with....

speaking of finishing 2nd.....coldcuts was outraged shackelford didnt win top 3 yr old! i'm serious....he lost all year, over and over....2nd apparently is his top criteria....he's off footbridge now!

Mike, you are too funny man.  Shall we go back and compare posts to see who has taken the personal shots?  For the sake of time, let's not.  The answer is YOURS.  You're ate up man.  And if "coldcuts" is a personal attack then I am guilty as charged.

Hey! people! jj hit a 50 dollar pk 4! PIC soon to be the centerfold in FIELD and STREAM!

Coldfacts,

 Is Freshly Minted the same horse you said you bet $40K on?

OHHHHHHHHH! Now i get it..........coldcuts is a not from this country.......that explains it! Didnt know that planet in outer space, was under british control!

To be a professional handicapper, you have to know what you are watching.......spiral stks....90 beyer! thats mdn times! derby? you gonna go to the derby? How about the sunland superhorses? 94 an 95! Wow! hall of fame! Running on a paved freeway!   Only one who got it,was plod boy...............everyone went banannas!

Wow! someone actually called coldcuts out on something!!!! longway!!!! be carefull! he'll ban you too!!!!......

longwaytomay,

The name is correct the amount incorrect ($10K)

longwaytomay,

In fact I wager $40K on Freshly Minted when he was being trained by one Mr. Gresford Smith. He was removed from that trainer's keep and care and I wager $10K when he was being trained by one Mr. S. Dwyer.

In an attempt at levity, I'll recall the words of a famous horse owner on the way to his first Kentucky Derby.  The novice horseman was asked if his horse could get a mile and a quarter.  The colorful figure replied, "he ran all the way here".

(Homer Simpson)

longwaytomay,

The Freshly Minted era was easily 15-16 year ago.

I use to gamble heavily and I have no need to lie.

1:08 and change

Seems like this is a contest to see who gets the last word. So you're saying Coldfacts is the only one you've took a shot at? Right. You're on here to rile people up, no other agenda.

I do remember Colfacts saying $40,000, but not in U.S. dollars.  KY Talker, post a pick, win or lose.

Will Shanghai Bobby be the morning line favorite in the FL Derby?

I guess my problem with Animal Kingdom is that he gets more hype and recognition than wise Dan and Point of Entry, the horses that actually beat him. And this is because of one day in his career on the first saturday in May. I'm not being harsh, he simply does not win often. He will have another chance to run second on saturday.

Again no mention of another world record setting performance of turf at the distance of 1 1/2 miles. Twilight Eclipse managed to tie the record recently set by Bright Thought.

Coldfacts, not that it matters, but are you from Barbados?

Are Emcee and Fortify retired or still on vacation?

Does anyone know what year lasix became legal in NY?

FA-

I just sent an e-mail out to someone who will know the answer to your question.  Will forward the response ASAP.

FA, 1995. www.drf.com/.../lasix-timeline-drug-racing

I didn't mention that new record here?  Good horse. Sorry, not really going into hyperbole today, but yes, noteworthy.

In totally reeled the enthusiasm  back in about the Sunland records. Three of them in one day made all less, imo. Mentioned elsewhere. Track must have been nearly steamrolled. We're talking frozen Bowie or baked Turf Paradise type records.

Don't see how anyone plays two cards with ya on this blog, KY. What's to stop either combatant from just copying the other's picks?

Forbidden-

Found it on line - 1995.

therail.blogs.nytimes.com/.../the-case-for-using-lasix

Yes Mike... Go back and look.  You are so full of it.  Where are my personal attacks?  

Yah, saw that article. Of course, decided to by-pass it, for obvious reasons.

Okay, so what happened since 1995, all horses suddenly became bleeders?

It's time to stop arguing and get to work on unlocking the winners of the Louisiana, Florida, and UAE Derbies.

or even a mid-week turf race at Gulfstream.

"challenge me !!" LOL, that still makes me laugh...  this guy rides Coldfacts coattails because he desperately needs some type of recognition...that he knows about horses.  He can't do it by posting useful information so he tries to discredit Coldfacts.  It's pretty obvious and really sad and pathetic.

Coldfacts :  Don't let him drag you down to the point where you have to post stuff about your personal stuff.  Keep posting your "coldfacts", ignore the loser.  I have to admit, I don't believe everything you post but as I stated before, it makes me do research on my own.  That's how I learn things...

All I remember from the early 1990's on lasix, was that it was supposed to be the savior of NY racing, increasing field sizes. That was untrue, so I still wonder why it was so important to make it legal.

Yeah, I'm curious what they "found" in 1995 that made them introduce lasix... we need something similar for KY.

FA : Louisiana Derby,  I like Ground Transport and depending on who rides Mylute, I'll probably play those two on top.   For Florida Derby, I think Shanghai Bobby takes this race but he's really not in need of points so I wouldn't be surprised if they take it easy on him.  A tightener for the Derby.  I'll have tickets on IMLD, Orb will most likely be the favorite here.

Are you seriously thinking of betting the Dubai races ?  I can't get up that early to bet races lol... I do want to see Mary's baby RD run in the big race.

1:08 and change

Don't have time,you see instead of talking loads of bs I back mine up with action- contributing. Getting on a plane early tomorrow to fly somewhere to offer my assistance regarding horses. You see,talk is cheap. As for your comment recently about giving $ to Old Friends,don't think $5 really counts. You sound like someone that used to post on NTRA,that most everyone couldn't tolerate,including myself. Please continue to pretend your knowledge trumps everyone, I'm impressed. Think you're a bully that needs an audience.

Coldfacts,Vet,JayJay and a few others, your comments are always interesting. Will return late next week.

Well I used to get very excited about the Dubai races. I remember crushing the exacta in the 2008 Golden Shaheen, Benny the Bull over Idiot Proof. No dirt equals less interest from me, but always great betting races. The only sure bet I have is a straight exacta, Itsmyluckyday over Orb. Pletcher's horses are almost always overbet, I think Shanghai Bobby might get hammered.

Plod Boy Phil,

I don't see much to get excited about at Gulfstream before saturday. However, I do want to make a win bet on He's So Fine in race 9 on thursday.

I'm expecting a true battle in the FL Derby. Itsmyluckyday clearly needs the points, all systems go. I can not see Shanghai Bobby being able to hold off Orb late. Itsmyluckyday may be long gone by then.

3/29, TBD r6, #10.

Do you know? 50 years ago......people thought racehorses bled because a burst blood vessel in their nose!....they thought less than 5% bled in a race....years later, they found out...it was almost always from the lungs....about 10% were thought to.....fast forward to today....some studies say about 40% or more bleed at least a little........whats wrong?  Nothing! Wise up! technology has improved! The sky is not falling! You people are making WAY to much of a deal about this issue! IGNORANT PEOPLE MAKING TOO MUCH OF A DEAL ABOUT LASIX!

Mary! always knew you had common sense! looks good!

APPLE! I can see why you like HE'S SO FINE.......i was a beginner too once.......please! dont bet! Use the advice of a professional............

Mike Relva : Continue your work with the horses man, don't let 1:08 get in your skin.  He's here to cheerlead for the flow, nothing else.  Your work is far more important than what he has to say about it.

1:08 :  If you're going to reference the name of the blog, you should at least unlock winners and post it here before the race otherwise, you're just being a hypocrit.  You don't unlock winners, you let the flow play your money and there's nothing wrong with that if it's working for you.  Not everyone can handicap so if they need help to play with their money, it's all good.  Nothing to be ashamed about.  Just don't act like you're all about posting winners and Mike is all about helping horses because you're engaged in discussions here all day that has nothing to do with picking winners.  I'm just saying...

JayJay

Thanks,your comments are much appreciated. Btw,in the old days

lol, admired how you never once backed down on anything with Jason. Some only go by which way the wind blows.

Mike : Hehe, thanks.  BTW, I have to correct myself... it's "get under your skin" lol.  

KY Donkey,

Then how did horse racing exist in NY before 1995? And why do foreign countries ban the use of lasix? Like I said last week, come to Saratoga and start your name calling. It's easy when an elderly person shouts out from a computer. Yell in my face and see what happens. Racing was fine without lasix. Now we have cry babies like you that can't get off their meds. Like Gary & Mary West taking it so far that they want to take legal action against the Breeders Cup. And dumbo Repole removing his turtles from the Breeders Cup. Nothing about you spells out professional. You are an agitator in need of a beat down. And now you are psychic too, you know why I like a certain horse, give it up. Mock someone else, but offer zero picks of your own. Typical behavior coming from a liar. The sky is not falling, who cares it's only horses that are being pumped with drugs. I think it's time you start a cycle of lasix.

KY VET,

About a year ago Mr. Barry Irvin characterized me as an overly ambitious hanging ornament that was using Mr. Haskin’s blog to launch one of my own. It was the first time the gentleman had directed comments toward me.

I found rather it interesting that such a high profile US owner would take time out of his busy schedule to summit an insult regarding one of Mr. Haskin’s supporters.

His effort was a stark reminder of how vile fellow members of mankind can be.

I shared some personal information in a story about a horse I owned and I was happy the Pete allowed me the opportunity.

You have chosen to accuse me of being a fraud and a liar. I am not surprised as you have over the years shown your true colors.

The Freshly Minted story is pale in comparison to others in my history of thoroughbred ownership.

How much do we know about fellow contributors?

Despite our collective ignorance we share a common bond that is our love for thoroughbreds. Sadly this common bond is not enough to ensure mutual respect and regard for each other.

I have an immense passion for thoroughbreds and an enormous appetite for knowledge of all things equine. I have gathered a lot of historic information in my areas of interest. This information is summarized on Excel Spreadsheets and in Word Documents.

This is what I do.

Some contributors are fixated on Buyers and Trainer’s win percentages. Those are not by areas of interest.  

I have no need to fabricate stories to enhance myself. If this is what you think I did in posting the Freshly Minted story, you are worst than I have ever imagined.

KY Donkey,

Race 10 Gulfstream, March 29. The horses name is Pack a Punch. Do you know why I like that horse?

KY Donkey,

Race 9 Gulfstream March 29 I Know It All. You can bet your trailer on this one. This horse was named after you.

Forbidden Apple,

That's my exacta, too for the Florida Derby.  Orb shouldn't be going head to head against Itsmyluckday, so he'll make the exacta, and I believe the field will be too small for a winning setup.  And I'm willing to bet that Itsmyluckyday is the best here.

Rusty Weisner,

Did you get my message last week? 2013 is the 150th year of horse racing in Saratoga Springs. Pack your bags and get here this summer.

Ther money is good and I think the top 3 in the FL Derby all want to win.

Longwayfromhome,

While do not believe you are in alliance with the KY VET I got the impression you were inferring I was fabricating stories.

Let me therefore clarify the $40K & $10K.

In my initial story about Freshly Minted is specified I wager $10K when he was at 99-1 and he finished a trouble second.

In a post directed to Jeseryboy I specified that I wager $40K on a horse the trainer advised would have been competitive. It finished last and had no chance of winning as it was pulled up.

The horse was Freshly Minted as well. I removed him from that trainer the next day. Freshly Minted was trained by four individuals while I owned him for various reasons. While he was in in the care of Mr. Kenneth Dwyer I wagered the $10K.

During the thoroughbred ownership phase of my life I owned four horses and raced a 5th under a lease agreement.

I hope the above will dispel any doubt you might be harboring.

Vet:

I'll throw down with ya on a single card.  Although, if I were to win I wouldn't want you leaving the blog.  I enjoy your comments related to the sizes of horses heads and boogers.  

Forbidden Apple,

Funny story, or maybe not.  When I did go there I went with a friend.  We had trouble finding a room and had to get one outside of Saratoga Springs, near one of those post-industrial towns (one motel in Saratoga Springs we looked at, decorated with lawn jockeys, billed itself as the place Ron Turcotte used to stay whe he raced there).  Well, the room we ended up staying at wasn't clean, which we only discovered on returning....

While I was there I did get to scratch my other itch for three days, though.  I won the last race of the meet to win most of my money back, but until then wasn't a winner, so I didn't get to dine at Siro's.

I like betting Saratoga and it's a place I have had mild luck at recently. I played four weekends (full Saturday and Sunday cards!) of simulcasting at Saratoga in both 2010 and 2011 and did okay, coming out a little ahead both times.  Big winners I can remember were Daddy Nose Best's maiden, Winslow Homer and a Linda Rice maiden with the awful name of "We Need VLT's".  I have never hit the Travers and had one of my biggest, most exquisitely painful losing bets ever on Fly Down in 2010.

I would love to return in person.  The red and white pavilions everywhere under the pines reminded me of a Dr. Seuss book.  I liked being in a place where respectable people carry around the Racing Form and pore over it during brunch.  

There's always some small chance I can get away upon an August for a weekend, so if I do I'll look for -- if I remember the description correctly -- a tall guy bouncing a basketball at the finish line.

Anyone interested in a KY Derby blog draft? Small entry fee, winner take all.  

are you kidding me??????????:D

no

Coldcuts.....i didnt say you were a liar.....i said, the story makes you look MORE STUPIDER!...10 grand..99 t0 1......7 trainers!....i think everyone by now gets it!

Coldcuts......the only "spread" sheets you should be using.......is TOILET PAPER!..............

ok 108....post 2 cards....you pick.......we can do this......

Coldfacts,

I asked you a simple, direct question. Nothing more. Now you resort to changing my moniker in a way that is clearly rude and disrespectful. Time to move on.

VET:  It will have to be this weekend.  Possibly Friday.  Gulf and SA Friday.  I will let you know Thurs.

Nobody wants to do a draft?  Weak...............

Is that even legal, 1:08 and change?  The other thing is, almost no one uses real names, but you want to give money to or receive money from usernames?  There will probably be an Oaks and Derby picks blog.

KY-VET,

You're killing me, "more stupider"?

Question: Since Sunland Park is at an elevation of about 1 mile, does the performance exhibited at that track suggest that the horse has substantially better endurance, since at that altitude the oxygen content of the air is thinner than one would find at a track like Santa Anita? Or are the horses that a trainer like Bob Baffert sends there, stalled in special stalls with controlled conditions to prepare the horses for that racing environment? It reminds of when we sent olympic athletes to the Denver area to prepare them for the thinner oxygen atmosphere when the olympics were held at a high altitude city, I think it was Mexico City.

I think we can be fairly certain that the amount of hot air that gets expelled on this blog , suggests that the participants are mostly from low elevation areas.

Then again, some of things that are said , might be contributable to the thin air some are experiencing.

longwaytomay,

Regarding your ID I went from memory. No disrespect meant.

KY VET

"i didnt say you were a liar"

Kind  revisit your post.

"said, the story makes you look MORE STUPIDER!...10 grand..99 t0 1"

You ignorance is supreme!

The wager was made at a betting parlor. Betting parlors normally close before the first race is run.

The ML on the horse was not 99-1. The off time odds was 99-1.

Thee was no way of knowing off time odds five hours ahead of a race.

Pete is a nice guy and while I would love to continue supporting his blogs, the pollution you bring is just too much.

of course, the coldcuts didnt get the joke....its called a running joke.......predict got it.......5th time ive used the phrase....why does it matter the ml odds or off odds?  the point being, you bet 10 grand on a horse! with 7 trainers! bred for pineapples! I'm sure you did it.....it fits your profile.....

coldcuts.....the only way mr palmer can go fast enough to win that race................is to ride him off a bridge!

Mary:

I don't think it would be any different than the thousands of NCAA basketball tournament pools going on this month.  But for the sake of having to collect the funds and not being charged with orchestrating a gambling pool online let's give it a trial run for bragging rights.

So who'd be up for that?  Say 10 players, 4 horses each or something to that effect. Let's see how many participants we can get.

So who's in?

Coldfacts,

I believe Barry Irwin called you ornery, meaning stubborn.

hey....just got off the phone, to a old bookmaker i know..........heres a question for the blog.....why wouldnt a bookmaker take a 10 grand bet on a horse 99 to 1........my friend says no way......and if the bookmaker would have taken the bet, my friend says, the horse couldnt, wouldnt go off 99 to 1....anyone wanna guess the answer?

ORNERY....def....from the greek god ORN....king of bologna....and ERY..def. being of bullcrap..........

Vet I know you are in?  Any chance to show off your skills even with the meager reward of pride...

Coldfacts : How did you know it was really Barry Irwin ?  It could've easily been KY - the guy's been stalking you for years trying to get some credibility... sad but some people just can't get their own life... what's even sadder is that he stalks you on blogs.. BLOGS lol.

1:08, I've been posting picks for the Derby points races all along. Some have sucked, some haven't.  Someone was going to keep track, I thought. Anyway, I'll have Derby picks on that upcoming blog.  Do you want four picks right now?

Mary:

Let's wait and see if we get any more players.  Hopefully we can get at least 8.  Then we will go one at a time and "draft" a horse.

We'll have a random order.  The person that picks last will have the first pick going back through the group the opposite direction.

Let's see if we get any more takers.

KY Talker,

Since you are calling yourself a genius, tell me why I like He's So Fine tomorrow? And continue another week with zero picks of your own, only insults and cheap talk.

Keeneland starts soon. Am I the only one wondering how Gary Stevens will do at the Spring meet?

Get em Apple!!

1:08 and change;

I would be happy to keep score if you'd like! Do you envision everyone placing mythical $2 win/place wagers -- with the highest return on investment winning -- or will it simply be who can pick the most winners?

Keel:

We can do that too for the rest of the preps.  That's a great idea.  

I was just suggesting we have a mythical draft for the KY Derby this week.  If we got 8-10 players with 4 picks each that is no more than 40 horses.  I am sure there are 40 horses left who are in the hunt.

1:08 i want in derby draft if you got a spot left

Derby Draft:

4 spots taken so far...

-108

-Mary Z

-Keelerman

-RobbieJoe

keep em coming people...

Let's play one at Fair Grounds

Race 6 - 8 In Step Dancer: pressed a moderate Closers race last out and set the pace of an Extreme Race for Closers two back.  Turf sprint has the look of a 'ZipFest',  so an outside stalking trip may prove ideal.

1:08 and change;

This sounds like a lot of fun! Although you'll have to explain the exact rules to me, as I'm not very familiar with the format.

Let's Dance......

PLOD:

Wow...that was better than calling the psychic friends network. LOL

Plod nice hit 6-1 shot

Thanks - thought 11 minutes before post would get it on this board in plenty of time....not.

wow...just got back from track.....thats twice plod and i had same horse.....he drifted way out huh? i was on fire! breakfast on the backstretch again....workouts, horses, love it! wish i wasnt allergic to horses and hay! nice pick plod...we wouldve got more if it was diff trainer...

108...what day? 2 cards....1 win for most winners, 1 point for most money.......im real busy, dentist, dr for gf. groomer for dog...maybe next week....or maybe i can study on fri night.....up to you....

forbidden...your horse has back class, went sour, showed good race last.....take it you think hes getting good.....no? marys horse looked ok....common sense...gp

I can rearrange that dr appt, lol.

mary....youre the 2nd funniest on here!

mary....the post of common sense....was that a joke? or a real pick? he looks good.....

no picks in the weekends stks races....dont like anyone.......serious....

I would never think Common Sense was a joke, KY.  I've been following this horse since 1/13/12.

Interesting question. You do use that term often enough.

Once again, the "expert" refuses to pick the prep races, he posts a winning pick copying PBP.  This guy is a joke...serious...

Watch, after the prep races this weekend, he'll go on his rant of how he knows the horses and that the fields are weak and that the winner is a bad horse and that he knew what was going to happen yada yada yada...what a clown.  It's like the same thing every weekend...can't pick a winner and then goes on like he knows something.

Then...after he "breaks down" the races, he'll go back to Coldfacts lol... or talk about his imaginary horses...whatever this guy is taking, IT is potent...

Jay Jay, I'm starting on the Derby points prep picks. Someone at the Jockey Club was asleep at the wheel or is the type that is flat on their back, lights off, don't mess their hairdo, I guess, and they just didn't get it, pun fully intended. Post #1, Louisiana Derby ??

apparently you "get" it huh ? mary!

noticed plods winner when i got home....mentioned it because exact same thing happened other day.......ok.....i will say i lost every race today at the track...... i want credit for all of those.......it was a fun fun day......horse worked again........you dont wanna know.....4 more for a 6 shooter.....

saw a funny thing today....at the track, they have a board with the big winning tickets on it......saw a pic 4 or 5...50cent....600 dollar ticket! what an idiot! but he got just over even money...it paid 1300.......

mary.....my favorite one that got by the jc.....was a horse......Dumbs hit......no lie.....then there was Dick......no lie....but the funniest thing was the fact he won by a head.....you cant make that stuff up............

I havent bet hardly any derby preps...just the way its worked out...

I've found quite a few, KY.  Some are more subtle, like Caracortado's dam.  Some are famous, like Rock Hard Ten, the daily ten, etc.

Mary :  I'm totally bummed out that Ground Transport got the 13th hole in the LA but I'll still use him on top.  I do like Code West in here.  I know you're a huge fan of Revolutionary but I'm not sure about him.  First time on a new track with 14 horses... I don't know.  

I'm going to play Code West with Mylute and Palace Malice and Proud Strike.  I'm sure I'll probably use Revolutionary but not on top.  I'm sure you'll put a lot of money on him.  Good luck !!

I scored on that Dancer horse as well, put 200 WPS on him... I just had to bet it when I saw Phil posted him and he won.  Now I'm rich !  Have to go and check out how my seahorses are doing, I'm anxious to get them running... or is it swimming.. who cares, they're going to win .. WATCH AND LEARN!

I'm not a huge fan of Revolutionary. She's not me. That's why I have been using my last name for over a year.  He might be in my picks though; haven't decided yet.  Again, she's not me, but I saw that JPM(Just Plain Mary) does like Hear The Ghost, too. Jay Jay, when have I ever gone on about breeding?  I don't, because I don't know enough about that subject where race horses are concerned.

No way... I'm truly sorry.  All this time I've been reading Haskin's blog I thought that was you...as for the breeding, that makes two of us but I'm trying to learn about inbreeding, hence I'm closely watching what KY is posting here...I may have an answer soon but it'll all be a guess on how many crosses there are/were to truly understand it...

Florida Derby : Shanghai Bobby and IMLD on top playing with Orb and AYKM... might throw in Indy's Illusion in there just in case...

Who do you like in the LA and Florida ?

JayJay,

I'm disappointed about the post, too.  I was going to play Ground Transport and Palace Malice.

There are a couple of other locals, too, Sunbean and Departing.  I feel like I've got to throw at least one in.

Rusty, Jayjay, Coldcuts, VET, PLOD, Rusty?  Any interest in the Derby draft?  Or the picking winners contest?

KY is playing, so I can beat him.

1:08,

No, thanks.  I don't play the futures wagers, either.

I like Golden Soul

 I like Are You Kidding Me

Jay Jay, I don't have any personal favorites in the Derby preps this weekend.

Louisiana Derby:  Revolutionary, Golden Soul, Proud Strike, Palace Malice.

Florida Derby picks coming up later today.

1:08 -

No interest in Derby draft,  thanks.

As for the 'Picks' contest, I'm not up for an entire card or two card contest - not the way I play the game. I will be happy to post 3-5 plays on the day or days in question.

Pete : You busy with the sales ?  Where you been ?

Would like your thoughts on the big weekend preps...

1:08 : No thanks. I am however, eagerly awaiting yours and KY's battle for handicapping supremacy.  From the looks of it, KY's trying to find a way out already... lol.  He's all yap, but can't back it up with his picks.

I'm posting again after having to get to the FOURTH antibiotic for a sinus infection. Brain been on half-pay for a week or more. Did I miss anything?