Fla, LA Derby picks

The pressure will be on the favorites in this weekend's major Kentucky Derby preps -- Itsmyluckyday in the Florida Derby (G1) and Revolutionary in the Louisiana Derby (G2) -- to earn their way to Louisville.

Although both are consensus top-five three-year-olds, Itsmyluckyday's fleet run in the Holy Bull Stakes (G3) and Revolutionary's trouble-filled victory in the Withers Stakes (G3) were worth just 10 points each under the new Derby qualifying system, which in my opinion overly weights the final round of Derby preps.

Both colts deserve to be in the Derby, so in the interest of having the best field possible, I am hoping for fair tracks and clean trips for everyone this weekend.

Gulfstream Park

Race 12 6:19 EDT

Florida Derby (G1)    3yos    (1 1/8 miles dirt)

I rate 3 Itsmyluckyday not only the most likely winner of this race but the best three-year-old in America. His wins in the Gulfstream Park Derby and the Holy Bull were beauties. This Lawyer Ron colt has a unique combination of relaxed running style and high cruising speed. He came home his final 5/16 in 31-flat last time after tracking 1 Shanghai Bobby through splits of :46-3 and 1:10-3.

Compare that with 6 Orb, whose :32-1 final 5/16 in the Fountain of Youth (G2) looked good visually to many people, but was aided by a fast pace up front and a tiring (injured) leader. I do think Orb will like the added distance he gets here, but I still want to play against him, as he will have to improve to get the win.

There are two price shots I find interesting in this race for consideration in the vertical exotic wagers or on multi-race spread plays. 2 Pick of the Litter was a revelation winning an off-the-turf MSW by 7 1/2 lengths at this track and distance on February 27. Despite the 4-horse field, that was a very good run. He is bounce risk here, but still can be played at a big price.

I also like 9 Are You Kidding Me a little bit, although his best performances have come on turf. He tries dirt for the first time for trainer Roger Attfield and should get a good pace to close into.


Fair Grounds

Race 9    5:44 CDT

Louisiana Derby (G2)    3yos    (1 1/8 miles dirt)

2 Palace Malice ran a respectable third, beaten just a half length, in his two-turn debut in the Risen Star Stakes (G2). Not only was he trying a route for the first time, but he found himself taken back to ninth early and pretty much ran the entire race between horses, both new experiences for this Curlin colt. He responded well to the new scenarios, and he also looked like he got a little tired, shortening stride slightly. He is a candidate to improve mentally and physically here in his third start of the year.

3 Revolutionary should be favored here based on his 2-for-2 record going two turns, a very fast maiden win, and an impressive, trouble-filled victory in the Withers Stakes (G3). But I can't recommend taking too short a price here for a few reasons. Revolutionary will be making his first start in eight weeks and his first start outside of New York.  Louisiana is not the most shipper-friendly state, and it would be no surprise if Revolutionary encounters traffic in this 14-horse field.

8 Code West had an interesting running line in the Risen Star, pressing the pace from the inside, falling back to 4th, then nearly re-rallying for the win. His breeding (by Lemon Drop Kid, out of a Saint Ballado mare) suggests the added ground today could be in this grinder's favor.

I believe the winner comes from those three, but I'll mention two others for consideration. 10 Titletown Five is likely to be lone speed on the stretchout, and trainer D. Wayne Lukas is having a renaissance year.

Midnight Lute is red hot as a sire right now and will be attracting all kinds of support at the windows and at the sales, but 11 Mylute should be a big price here. I tend to think he's a cut below these, but having seen most of his races, I do think he is an improvement candidate with the blinkers coming off.


Leave a Comment:


Any picks for Dubai?  

28 Mar 2013 7:48 PM

I love Za Approval in the 11th at Gulfstream on Saturday.

28 Mar 2013 7:50 PM
Carlos in Cali

Fla.Derby:  Orb- recency,will get a nice pace set-up again and Shug says he keeps improving.. that's enough for me,though I doubt he'll be as "cranked-up" as Bobby/IMLD who need the points. I'll also use the longshot Indy's Illusion underneath- should be closing.

La.Derby:  The obvious- Revolutionary/Code West/Palace Malice.

Fla.Oaks:  Dreaming Of Julia-  2nd off comeback,equal weights. This time Live Liveley will not get a lone "F" trip. 9f will suit the former best,IMO.  

28 Mar 2013 9:32 PM
Mary Zinke

No annoying me about peaked colts unless you post picks of your own, Dos Equis Guy,k?

Florida Derby: 3,6,1,5.

Louisiana Derby: 3,4,9,2.

28 Mar 2013 9:34 PM

when racing latches on to a meme, it hangs on for dear life...

here's a game--don't look at PPs!

below are 5 pace lines (these are actual pace lines run by actual 3 yos this year headed for one of the 9f furlong derbies this saturday-these are each horse's actual pace line, not the pace line of the race they were in).

just by looking at the pace line, nothing else, identify the horse's running style--front runner, presser, closer:

24.12 46.54 1:09.71 1:35.37 1:42.24

23.34 46.68 1:10.69 1:35.28 1:42.12

23.51 46.86 1:10.73 1:35.11 1:41.00

23.63 47.01 1:11.16 1:37.57 1:44.81

23.34 47.10 1:10.97 1:36.34 1:43.30

all of these five horses will be racing against each other in the same race on saturday.

bonus points if you can link the pace with the horse.

my money will be on the horse that was able to run the mile within 2/5 of second of the horse with the fastest mile and 8.5f of the lot-- after having run 6f in 1:09.7 (a full second faster than than the horse with the fastest mile and final time)--if he can get away with a 1:10.7 6f...

but the horses i'm really rooting for this saturday are little mike and royal delta--mikey might get it done, but it's going to be a big ask for delta, but hopefully mott wouldn't enter her if he thought it was going to be just a repeat of last year...

28 Mar 2013 10:19 PM

on a completely different subject, hansen, the 2 yo champion last year, who most felt was a bust a 3 yo, would have had 54 points at this point in the year, only 10 of which would have come from his 2 yo season; shanghai bobby, the two year old champion this year has 24 points currently, all but 4 from his 2 year old season...

28 Mar 2013 10:30 PM
Little Bill

I'm gonna take a shot with Frac Daddy.

28 Mar 2013 10:50 PM

3/30/13, Fairgrounds, R-9, Louisiana Derby, dirt, 1 1/8 mile:


#4-Golden Soul

#2-Palace Malice

#5-Wiskey Bravo

28 Mar 2013 11:35 PM

3/30/13, Gulfstream Park, R-12, Florida Derby, dirt, 1 1/8mile:


#5-Frac Daddy


#9-Are You Kidding Me

28 Mar 2013 11:38 PM


If you've got the right horse here in second it will be a coup -- bragging rights up to the Derby.

29 Mar 2013 1:33 AM


You appear to have a method for changing seconds into lengths with which I am not familiar.

Or was this intended for April 1?

29 Mar 2013 1:57 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Papillon -

Such an approach would be more reasonable if races were run like speed trials, one horse at a time. The pressures and stress of completion changes performance dramatically.

29 Mar 2013 7:25 AM

pete-pletcher smart to put revolutionary in a crowded field again. this is equivalent to gate training for some other horse. he seems to be learning to handle the adversity.would like to see him positioned mid-pack before pouncing.result-revolutionart, palace malice then code west.

29 Mar 2013 8:37 AM

Florida Derby is a race I will watch to enjoy, rather than bet.  I see a chalky outcome.

Louisiana Derby looks to be a great betting race if you can hit it.  Frac Daddy was my first future wager.  He'll be at a great price, but the injuries and layoff make me think he'll come up a bit short.  Regardless, I'll drop $10WPS on him.

I'll be happy if Revolutionary and/or Code West get the needed points here as well.

Really anxious for these 2 races!

29 Mar 2013 9:31 AM
1:08 and change

Mary, Keel, Robbie,

Only four for the draft so not worth doing unless we have at least 8 participants.  Hopefully we can get 8 by the end of the day today.

29 Mar 2013 10:29 AM

Florida Derby: Not much value here.

Not betting just thinking who'll finish in order.




LA derby: A lot of value here.




Titletown Five


Palace Malice

There are a lot of other good races on Saturday, can't wait for them.

Also, I think this is the year where an US horse wins in Dubai. I know 1 already has, but I'm thinking maybe we get a winner in the World Cup. Royal Delta and Animal Kingdom are REALLY sharp right now, with good posts. Dullahan will perform much better than last time.

29 Mar 2013 10:29 AM
Pedigree Ann

I don't have any particular opinion in these races - I'm willing to let the horses show me who is best. I am still looking for clues as to which circuit is stronger, like I did last year. It can be critical.

29 Mar 2013 11:18 AM
Little Bill


I'm going to key Frac with the field in the exacta, so, I will have second. Does that count? I would think not. Who's on your mind?

29 Mar 2013 11:26 AM

The Florida Derby will be an anti-climax as Itsmyluckyday, with his superior tactical speed, is much the best over a battling Shanghai Bobby (gunning for the win) and Orb (not expected to be fully primed but working out to peak in the Kentucky Derby).

Code West is my firm choice to win the La Derby convincingly and right-size the hype of Revolutionary ...of course any number can play as usual at the Fairgrounds but CW will be very hard to beat with improvement, tactical speed, gameness and from the wiz-shipper barn of Bob Baffert.

In Dubai, I think that Dullahan will win the World Cup. I just can't see him losing twice on a synthetic service that he's acclimatized to while looking ready in his preparations.  Of course its world class competiton and the Godolphin horse Hunter's Light is a smart cookie but I was very impressed with what Dullahan did against Game On Dude in the Pacific Classic last year at Hollywod Park, running a sub-two minute 10 Furlongs on synthetic and therefore pick him to score. Animal Kingdom and Royal Delta both have very good shots here especially the latter. I anticipate Royal Delta prompting the pace, grabbing the lead turning for home and testing the stamina and resolve of the closers ...we already know that Dullahan can wear down any front runner with his late rattle but Animal Kingdom more often than not has excuses ...I wish for him a smooth passage this time under the capable hands of Joel Rosario.

If Little Mike shows up he'll win on the Turf as he's a genuine world class performer, going at perhaps his most effective distance where he can take his competition out of their game with his bold front running gambit and determined stretch drive.  As for Trinniberg, if he takes to the Tapeta (a big ask of him but the connections are confident and I like them) he'll be very hard to beat. A very absorbing day of racing ahead. Happy Easter to all.    

29 Mar 2013 12:38 PM


Your pace line challenge is fascinating! I find the running line of the first colt quite intriguing. If I were to look at just the second and third fractions -- 46.54 and 1:09.71 -- I would say that he is a front runner with exceptional speed. But the :24.12 opening quarter suggests otherwise. My guess is that the running line is that of Orb from the Fountain of Youth Stakes, a stretch-runner that was sucked into the blazing internal fractions set by Majestic Hussar and Violence.

29 Mar 2013 2:06 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Oaklawn Race 5

5 My Daughter's Song (5-1):  has set the pace of three Closer favoring race Flows in her last four races - the lone exception being the stake race three back.  Easily dictates the action on the stretch to 8f today.

29 Mar 2013 3:18 PM

aqu race 6 my pick of the day #1 shes always hot wp

29 Mar 2013 3:19 PM

told ya mary! your common sense baby!....when we like the same horse, we tough! nice pick.....you

29 Mar 2013 3:21 PM

wow....not right! shesalwayshot closed, took lead, and pulled herself up to get nipped.....dumb horse! horse she passed came back....

29 Mar 2013 3:26 PM

Before I get blasted, I need to clear up that I meant since Dubai switched from Nad Al Sheba to Meydan olnly 1 US based horse has won, Kinsale King in the Golden Shaheen in 2010.

29 Mar 2013 3:40 PM
Mary Zinke

You're welcome, KY.  You can steal my picks anytime :)

29 Mar 2013 3:42 PM
Plod Boy Phil

true that Mary Z

29 Mar 2013 3:57 PM
Mary Zinke

I did feel more confident in the 10 in TBD r6  after receiving the KY seal of approval.

New blog, so, Dubai World Cup:

Royal Delta.

29 Mar 2013 4:07 PM

Florida Derby...

ITSMYLUCKYDAY got the better of SHANGHAI BOBBY last time, wouldn't be surprised if they ran 1-2 again.

Louisiana Derby...

GOLDEN SOUL gets my call in a wide open affair: Borel + added 1/16 + good FG stakes experience = upset

Good Luck This Weekend, Everybody!

29 Mar 2013 5:39 PM

Yes mary....thats what people Should do...name the last horse i said i didnt like their pick, that won.................................................that would take you too long.....like petes picks in those two blogs.......well...im giving pete the seal of approval on palice malice at fg....i dont get whats going on with shanghai bobby, but the way i pick, ill give him slight nod.....those 2 are my choices....small bets...

29 Mar 2013 5:55 PM

cassandra--i don't rember mentioning lengths in my post... fractions of a second are counted in 5ths in horse racing...what i did get wrong was my maths though (embarrassed), since 1/5 - .2 of a second and 2/5= .4 tenths of a second..and the difference was closer to .2 tenths than 4. tenths...my bad =(

phil--you've got a death grip on that meme. ;-)

raw time isn't everything, but paces lines tell stories too. pete, it doesn't strike you that orb's final time was almost the same as bobby's?

keelerman got my pint--orb appears to be a very rare closer, if he really even is a closer-- one with exceptional speed...i don't believe i've ever seen a pace line like that for a true closer in a route race before. at least i can't remember seeing one...

sad that only one horse survived the FOY, esp. since everyone is saying that the 1:08 they tracked was really more like 1:14 in that race (and that race alone that day or any other day that've been attending GP)

oh well, we'll know soon enough on way or t'other =)

i'll post my picks tonight.

29 Mar 2013 6:00 PM
Rusty Weisner

Posted these picks elsewhere, but here's more appropriate.  Itsmyluckyday over Orb.

Itsmyluckyday(3)/Orb(6) straight exacta $6

keyed tris:



29 Mar 2013 6:09 PM
Rusty Weisner

Forgot to check the weather.  Looks good.  Sunny, not too hot.

29 Mar 2013 6:09 PM
Rusty Weisner

LA Derby,

Don't know.

I liked a boxed exacta with Palace Malice and Ground Transport, but Ground Transport got the 13pp.  I believe that's bad, because a couple horses with outside posts scratched out of the Risen Star.

29 Mar 2013 6:11 PM

La Derby - Code West will prove the best.

29 Mar 2013 6:45 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Going to play one at Turfway:

R5) 7 Rewardbyblitzing - recorded a 'vs Zip Win' two back then set the pace of an Extreme Race for Closers last out. Cuts back a half furlong.

29 Mar 2013 7:29 PM

I don't think your going to get anything better than 2-1 on IMLD. If he goes higher than that, then I will bet him to win. Probably a race I will just watch. As for the LA Derby it's a different story. Lots of price horses. I like Departing alot, will bet him WP and will mix with Revolutionary, Code West, and Proud Strike.

29 Mar 2013 7:40 PM
Plod Boy Phil

That was silly easy at 5/2. I had to make up for that OP runner-up I posted earlier today.

29 Mar 2013 7:40 PM

Rusty Weisner   In the Florida Derby

I am going to play $2 exacta partial wheel boxes 36/3679=$16

$1Tri partial wheel 36/13679/13679= $24

if I bet more than you then make the exacta $1 which would ad up to $32 total

I like Palice Malice in the Louisiana Derby and I hope he gets a faster track on Louisiana Derby day than the one he got in the Risen Star.

29 Mar 2013 7:53 PM

CREDIT TO FORBIDDEN APPLE.......i was wrong on hes so fine......he ran well.....tough beat.......

29 Mar 2013 9:43 PM
Rusty Weisner


I can't put both of them on top.  Itsmyluckyday is better on paper, he was stunning to the eye, and after the two months let's see what he's like.  I kind of didn't like it that he didn't fire of his other 2-month layoff, but that wasn't his track.

In the La Derby, on second look, I kind of like Stall's runners here better than Ground Transport.  I'm also going to take them in exactas with Code West instead of Palace Malice.  I'm throwing darts while trying to avoid the two favorites.  $8 total, just to have a lively interest in the race.  Beats me, honestly, though one of the locals has to make it.  Watch, it'll be one at longer odds.

29 Mar 2013 10:05 PM

Has anyone taken a look at the UAE Derby? There are only two Triple  Crown nominees in the race -- He's Had Enough and Lines of Battle, an Aidan O'Brien-trained runner that has not run since finishing seventh in last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. I). As a result, they are the only two horses eligible to earn Kentucky Derby qualification points.

That said, Godolphin's fine colt Secret Number looks like a legitimate favorite off of his impressive victory in the Al Bastakiya earlier this month. However, I personally feel that the filly Shuruq could give him a run for his money, based on her sharp run in the UAE Oaks (gr. III). In that race, she clearly relished the distance to win by four lengths over stablemates Lovely Pass and Music Chart, a pair of fine fillies in their own right.

Interestingly, both the Al Bastakiya and UAE Oaks were run at 1900 meters, the same distance as the UAE Derby. Shuruq ran the distance in 1:58.72 after running the opening 800 meters in :51.99 and the 1,200 in 1:16.61, for a final seven-sixteenths in 42.11. In contrast, Secret Number completed his race in a considerably slower 2:01.35 after running fractions of :53.93 and 1:18.37. This resulted in a final seven-sixteenths in :42.98. Thus, in the UAE Oaks, Shuruq ran faster early an faster late than Secret Number did in the Al Bastakiya, which -- in my opinion -- makes her the horse to beat.


29 Mar 2013 10:32 PM
Mary Zinke

I could almost cry--he's growing up.

29 Mar 2013 11:22 PM

My bad, I thought SB had enough points (54) but he's only got 24 so it's a do or die for him as well but I think SB has a chance to take the Florida Derby.   I think 9F is well within his reach and his "rest" since the Holy Bull should only benefit him.    I don't know if Orb will be taken back since he's already in but he's got a big chance to try and eliminate IMLD in this race by winning it.  

Keelerman : Yeah I had a quick look at the lineup, thanks for the info on the horses that are running, I checked xpressbet tonight and doesn't look like they're doing any advance wagering.  I might actually wake up early tomorrow if I can and bet the darn thing... but I really wanted to get up early to see Royal Delta run in the $10M race...hopefully she'll do really well.

Mary Zinke :  Nice pick on Common Sense, and nice of you to let KY steal your pick... again AFTER the race lol.  This guy is desperate and will take credit any way he can.

29 Mar 2013 11:48 PM

LA derby--

#6 sunbeam

#9 proud strike

#8 code west

#3 revolutionary--won't have any pace to run into

will place an across the board bet on sunbeam

an exacta with sunbeam on top of 9,8,3

a 6,9,8 tri

and a 6,9,8,3 super

FL derby:

#6 orb

#2 potl

#3 shanghai bobby

#4 imld

frac daddy is too slow to win this race

i can't see bobby not getting passed at 8.5f.

horses that were top 2 yos didn't finish better than third in 2010, 2011, or 2012.

the hot GP 3 yos didn't finish better than 4th in 2010, 2011, or 2012

second place in 2010, 2011, and 2012 went to long shot/unexpected GP horses

first place has gone to a horse with low odds, but the favorite, trained by a well respected trainer, who is not pletcher, assmusen, romans, baffert, or mclaughlin

in the fl derby, i'll probably only place an across the board bet on potl, and maybe orb if he stays at 3-1 or higher--i don't feel confident that bobby and IMLD will fire--history isn't on their side

this year's florida races attrition rate:

3 horses survived the holy bull

2 horses survived the foy

good luck to all!

30 Mar 2013 12:55 AM

Rusty Weisner that is what I posted on here, but I have other data(angles)points that I use in constructing my exacta bets and then adding runners in 3rd and 4th.

This race has a high possibility of being ALL CHALK for the tri so I wouldnt go overboard in the tri because you cant see the payoffs like you can the exacta before making your bets.

30 Mar 2013 8:55 AM

Oh my bad I was writing about the FL Derby in reference to a ALL CHALK exacta and or trifecta.In the Lousisiana Derby on that track with 14 runners in the field could provide exotic results similar to the Spiral last week,I like Palice Malice but I doubt I will bet.

30 Mar 2013 9:10 AM
Rusty Weisner


I'm making a bet that Shanghai Bobby won't show up in the tri.  I like two of the three chalk.  

30 Mar 2013 9:13 AM
Rusty Weisner


I have $2 exacta boxes, Code West with Sunbean and Departing,

$1 boxes Palace Malice with Sunbean and Departing.  I usually go for the "upside" horse (Palice Malice vs. Code West), but this time I'm putting more on the more obvious angle:  Code West beat him last out.  Bet more than I wanted for the weekend:  $43.

30 Mar 2013 9:21 AM

Mary, I take it your not inviting sully over for easter.......

30 Mar 2013 9:34 AM
Plod Boy Phil


I have to point out the obvious: It appears as if you have no exacta box of PM and CW,  yet each is a 'key'.  

30 Mar 2013 9:49 AM

To all;

It has been confirmed that UAE Derby winner Lines of Battle will travel to Churchill for the Kentucky Derby.

30 Mar 2013 11:24 AM

Keelerman which colt that qualified in the UAE derby had the highest finish in the KDerby?

30 Mar 2013 11:38 AM

Keelerman qualified also means by earnings.Which one of them finished 1st 2nd or 3rd after running in the UAE as a prep?

30 Mar 2013 11:39 AM

Chief Picawinna;

The best finish in the Derby by a horse that prepped in Dubai was Master of Hounds, who ran fifth behind Animal Kingdom in 2011 after placing second in the UAE Derby. The next best finish was that of China Visit, who finished sixth to Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000 after winning the UAE Derby.

30 Mar 2013 12:13 PM
Pedigree Ann

The best 3yo in Dubai, the South-African-bred Soft Falling Rain, went in the Godolphin Mile because trainer deKock didn't think he was up to the distance. Became the first 3yo to win the Godolphin Mile. He had been a top 2yo in South Africa and is now 7 for 7.

30 Mar 2013 12:45 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

2nd GP I like Whiskey Rebellion

30 Mar 2013 12:57 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

FL Derby- Itsmeluckyday

LA Derby- 2-3-4-7-11 boxes.

30 Mar 2013 1:05 PM

LA Derby-8-9-12-2-14 Ex.,Tri,Super boxes.

FLA Derby-3-1-6-7 Ex.,Tri, Super boxes.

30 Mar 2013 1:44 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Fair Grounds - Race 1

4 Aroney - returned off a 4+ month freshening behind the w-w winner of a very Speed favoring Flow.

30 Mar 2013 1:57 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Never ran a step.

30 Mar 2013 2:04 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Animal Kingdom - What's he ever won ?

30 Mar 2013 2:08 PM

Played a one doller all 12 in the classic WHAT A DUMMY

30 Mar 2013 2:09 PM

Does anyone like Proud Strike in the Louisiana Derby?Stevens to Nakatani bad trip at 5-1 in the Risen Star.

30 Mar 2013 2:32 PM

Florida Derby:

Orb to win and Orb over Itsmylucky day ex.

Louisiana Derby:

Small$ on Revolutionary to win,

Tri Box: Revolutionary, Palace Malice, Departing, Titletown Five.

30 Mar 2013 2:39 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Koufax -

I do not.

30 Mar 2013 2:43 PM

Who do you like Phil? If you don't mind me asking.

30 Mar 2013 2:53 PM
Plod Boy Phil


Nothing in Florida Derby

30 Mar 2013 2:56 PM

Keelerman thanx for that information.

30 Mar 2013 3:19 PM

Keelerman I would be very surprised if the trainer of Lines of Battle dosent bring another horse to Churchill,maybe one of his numerous turf runners.

30 Mar 2013 3:21 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

O'Prado Again WS 10/20 in the Skip Away.

30 Mar 2013 4:58 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

11th GP, #12 WPS, and 2,9,12 ex and tri boxes.

30 Mar 2013 5:30 PM
1:08 and change

Animal Kingdom... what a bum.  Irwin haters grinding their teeth away.  

30 Mar 2013 5:39 PM
Plod Boy Phil


Good 'love' on Za Approval.

30 Mar 2013 5:51 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Majestic Harbor $5 wps for the big upset in the New Orleans.

30 Mar 2013 5:52 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Gotta go $50 wps on Itsmyluckyday, FL Derby and 2,3,4,7,11 cheapest ex, tri,super boxes LA Derby, FG.

30 Mar 2013 6:03 PM

The big preps are coming up now! Here are my quick picks:

Florida Derby: Itsmyluckyday

Louisiana Derby: Proud Strike

Good luck, everyone!

30 Mar 2013 6:03 PM

And Animal Kingdom continues to show his class.  On to Ascot!

Is there no possibility that they might hold him back from S. Hemisphere breeding to try the Arc?  Could they just wait one more year and breed him for the N. Hemisphere next year firs?

Should never have let him go to the Australians.

30 Mar 2013 6:08 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

FL Derby Add 3-5-7 $1 ex and tri boxes

30 Mar 2013 6:14 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

superfecta FL Derby 1-3-5-7

30 Mar 2013 6:16 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Good for Shug. Orb is good.

30 Mar 2013 6:31 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Fla Derby:

Gives a bit of support to the racing flow stance that the FOY was not a Closer favoring Flow,  despite the common opinion that he received a perfect set up. This 'neutral' rating, aka 'fair for all', was posted here on Feb 26.

The big question is,  does Orb have another one in the tank ?

30 Mar 2013 6:37 PM
Plod Boy Phil


Good call on Mylute.

I know JayJay has been on that one for awhile as well.

I have to go break the bad news to the panhandler that fronted me a $1 so we could split a $2 Future bet on Codewest.  He will not be happy.

30 Mar 2013 7:05 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Dr. -

What's a shooter to do ?

You got it all in the La Derby - congrats.

30 Mar 2013 7:12 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Plod Boy

   Thank you, thank you very much, after all that screwing around I won with the FG bets I had planned for days, so it turned from a losing day to a pretty good day in one fell swoop. The only bad part is only making the minimum bets but I'm not complaining just always dreaming of winning more. I used the KY VET approach- "if at first you don't succeed, try, try, try, try again. I think Revolutionary is the clear number one now in my opinion. More exciting races in the next few weeks. You can't beat the Derby preps and the Triple Crown.

30 Mar 2013 7:47 PM

Hey....breeding people......i was wondering something.....why do they say animal k will run like one more race?...he can run till the late fall and still be ready for breeding.....i assume because they dont wanna risk injury.....seems a little weird...bring him back to the races, and run him half a year.....

30 Mar 2013 8:22 PM

Not to be mean, but baffert goes to dubai....has heart attack,dale romans goes with those over rated duo, looks like a big greased dumpling.....looks like the poster boy for clogged arteries! Comes away healthy as a greased pig...........im just sayin! god is funny.....................

30 Mar 2013 8:27 PM

Rusty Weisner 6-3 exacta why did you get off of Orb,since the top three were much the best on paper, J Velazquez rode him  like that and was right up on the pace Itsmyluckyday will make it to the Derby for those that thought he was superior and would trounce the field,he will go in off another 5 weeks rest.

I still like Verrazano and he will have to defeat another unbeaten colt Vyjack as well as Elnaawi and others in the Wood,which will probably be one of the toughest preps if everybody that is planning on running makes it.

30 Mar 2013 8:58 PM
Rusty Weisner

Plod Boy Phil,

Re:  the obvious.  I appreciate you noticing.  These prep race bets are "vanity" bets.  I don't cover as much with them, and I make vertical exotic bets, which is not something I ordinarily do; I'm willing to lsoe.  The LA Derby was a crapshoot to me.  I wanted to grab one of the longer shots.  I didn't want to win a semi-chalky Code West/Palace Malice exacta, and in the end it's a good thing I didn't bet it, right?  

Likewise, with the Florida Derby -- I knew Shanghai Bobby was a toss and liked the top two, but wanted to stake on one.  I think if you "cover" you win/lose just as much in the end.  And my real game -- not that I'm that good at it -- is multi-race bets.  I think exotics( Merit Man?!), outside of picking the winner are usually too random.  The Florida Derby was a kind of exception -- I really liked both the top two (who didn't?), but a lot can go wrong in horse race; why cover both/

This season I've lost $141 on about six prep races with a 0% ROI.  All were vertical exotic bets and I put all my picks out there; they weren't disgraceful (except for the Gotham).  I pick one prep race and up up or even.  But my real hope -- and a much greater budget, by a factor of about ten -- is that full card of Pick 4's and Pick 3's, and maybe even a Pick 5, May 4 at CD.

30 Mar 2013 9:08 PM
Rusty Weisner


I don't understand.  I had Itsmyluckyday/Orb exacta and then the same order in trifectas.  I was only on Orb for second.

I haven't even seen the video yet, but I already like him a lot -- I was saying I don't think he's a one-dimensional closer.

I like Verrazano, too, but what to do?  I won't bet the race.  I don't like anyone to beat the top two, and I don't feel as strongly about Verrazano beating Vyjack as I did about Itsmyluckyday beating Orb today.  Please don't make me bet the race.

I picked against Revolutionary.  I had wrong ideas about his physical condition, plus I thought the big field might be an impediment to horse that gets in trouble, through his own fault or not.

30 Mar 2013 9:15 PM
Mary Zinke

Not to be mean, but So Country(KY), if you've even been in the vicinity of whatever a big greased dumpling is, have your own cholesterol checked.  The fact that you have the need to go to a dentist is promising, however.  Stay away from the cracklins tomorrow.  

Points picks 3/30:

You, two losers

Me, one win, one place.

Redeem yourself next week.

My picks, Verrazano and Hear The Ghost, should not peak. Your Flashback will have to run his eyeballs out.

30 Mar 2013 9:38 PM

Chief Picawinna;

I think you may be right about the possibility of Aidan O'Brien bringing one of his turf horses to Churchill as well. It seems to me there was talk last year about the possibility of him bringing a horse for the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic Stakes . . . perhaps Treasure Beach, if my memory serves me.

30 Mar 2013 10:45 PM
Carlos in Cali

Orb is an anomaly... he closes into any and all types of splits. The real deal! Push button!

30 Mar 2013 11:19 PM
Carlos in Cali

.... with a long,sustained run like his Grandpappis' AP Indy and Unbridled.

30 Mar 2013 11:31 PM

What a fiasco is this Derby points system ...turning the Kentucky Derby into a restricted stakes race ...eliminating one of the best 3YOs because its a filly.

30 Mar 2013 11:33 PM

Pretty disappointed with Ground Transport, had no excuses, he got out clean and clear on the outisde tracking the leaders, I thought he would run past them on the final turn but looks like he got tired.   I'm glad Mylute showed up.  An exacta box is all I can get away with.  Didn't like Departing, played Palace Malice and Codewest a lot with Mylute.  I'll have to watch the race again - not sure what happened with Codewest, or Palace Malice...

Orb should be the deserving favorite in the Kentucky Derby.  He looks very tough but it doesn't mean he's unbeatable.   I don't see anyone doing anything special that would take the favoritism away from Orb.  I hope they start planning for the BC Mile for SB.  IMLD didn't look like a derby runner, I'm surprised at how Orb easily ran by him...he didn't look like a horse that wanted anymore distance either, hopefully he was just off today but I don't know...

There was only one thing this weekend that was a sure thing, KY can't pick a winner if his life depended on it...

30 Mar 2013 11:34 PM
1:08 and change

Hey Mike, how was the PETA work'?  Did u save a few whales?  How's Animal Kingdom doing these days?  Still hurt ? Barry Irwin still an arrogant son?  Lmao!

31 Mar 2013 12:00 AM

Ranagulzion : Who's the filly you're talking about ?  And how did the new points systems eliminated this filly ?

I wonder who JV will ride in the Derby, Orb or Verrazano...I hope he rides Verrazano, that way Orb is beatable lol.

31 Mar 2013 1:33 AM

Rusty Weisner the Florida Derby ended up being a conveyor belt race just like the Spiral.The colts that ran to the front stayed there.Mac the Man was played by S.Bobby but he wasnt injured he was just a good 2yo but his peers caught up with him at 3.

Going by the raw times the FD wasnt very fast.The field top to bottom being very weak along with a conveyor belt track helped a sprinter hold for 3rd at 9 furlongs.

Itsmyluckyday could be regressing from the two powerful races he had at GP earlier in the year, coupled with all the time off 8 weeks,and he will enter the KD off 5 more weeks off.

I will still look to play lightly raced colts that develop fast but they do so as 3yos not 2yos when their bones are better suited for the stresses of training and racing on a hard dirt track.

I am pretty sure the competition is a lot tougher for 2yos in 2013 than it was in the 70s,80s and maybe even the 90s.Ditto for 3yos.

There just arent any colts that are so much better than the competition such as the triple crown winners of yesteryears.

There are a lot more colts being born and starting the LONG road to  the triple crown races.

31 Mar 2013 4:34 AM

Keelerman IMO it would be in his best interest to bring several, with the results that colts prepping in the UAE have had in the KD.

31 Mar 2013 4:36 AM
Rusty Weisner


I just watched the replays (was out enjoying spring weather yesterday, but not near a track).

I'll remain agnostic on the time of the Derby; I saw it wasn't fast, but we've got numbers crunchers here.  Orb was impressive -- I wanted to see him up near the leaders and he was, and it's the kind of thing you want to see in the Derby.  I liked him better than Revolutionary -- I hoped that horse would get in trouble and he was not quick out of the gate.  He was better than the rest, going wide like that, but I don't think that's going to work and that he is going to get himself in trouble in the Derby.  

31 Mar 2013 9:18 AM

JayJay:  Dreaming of Julia.  Check out the Gulfstream Oaks.

And I even think that she is nominated for the Derby,

Ranagulzion:  I was thinking the same thing.  If there wereoints for the Preakness, Rachel Alexandra wouldn't have made it.

31 Mar 2013 9:43 AM

What's going on here? The jockey for Mylute should be suspended! Didn't anybody else notice him standing on the horse almost holding him back! Watch the race or even look at the still picture of the finish line. Orb's jockey is doing what he should and the other jockey is looking for second!! Just wrong!

31 Mar 2013 10:15 AM
1:08 and change

If DOJ is so good then how come they didn't run her in the Florida Derby or any qualifying race for that matter?

31 Mar 2013 10:31 AM
Plod Boy Phil

re: Dreaming of Julia

Clearly the performance of the year, so far.  However, the chance of her ever repeating the effort is, in my opinion, very unlikely. I am not a fan of the term bounce,  but if ever there was performance capable of causing a serious setback, that was it.

31 Mar 2013 10:53 AM

Making one bet today.  Check out more than speed in the 11th at Gulfstream.  Very competitive 5F turf sprints at higher levels.  12-1 morning line.  

31 Mar 2013 10:59 AM

Points gained in the filly races will not transfer to the derby point system. The filly won in 2 sec faster than the boys.  Also, I believe breeding season in Australia begins in the fall and foaling is in the fall, that is why they want to retire him then.  But it is still a bummer he is being sent there.  We lost I'll Have Another to Japan.  All of our stamina horses are leaving.

31 Mar 2013 11:26 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Good luck Kevin

Looks like an abundance of speed in the race.  

I'll be on 14 Neon Moon, if she draws in. Her August turf sprint at Saratoga was an impressive 'Quick to Zip' upgrade and her 2 yr old finale also gets modest upgrade. Post may be a challenge but she's got enough tactical speed to rate of a duel and run by them all.

31 Mar 2013 11:33 AM
Pedigree Ann

"Should never have let him go to the Australians."

US commercial breeders don't want horses who are brilliant at 10f or more, even if they have been brilliant earlier. They let I'll Have Another go to Japan, but line up to breed to Uncle Mo and Hansen.

Arrowfield want their stallion for the 2013 breeding season in Australia, which starts in September. (Southern Hemisphere seasons are opposite from ours, something we all learned in science class.) A run in the Prince of Wales at Royal Ascot in June could be followed by a race in July, but I'm not sure how long the quarantine restrictions are for Australia. He may have to go into quarantine in July.

31 Mar 2013 12:34 PM

Agree totally with Pedigree Ann. We will never breed a TC winner until we keep our stamina stallions here.  Those two Derby preps yesterday were ridiculously slow.

31 Mar 2013 1:08 PM

Happy Easter!

Point of Entry is staying and my Derby pick ORB will most likely retire to Clairborne.

I like Elnaawi in the Wood.  Todd can't win all the preps.  Can he? :-)

31 Mar 2013 1:35 PM

The comittee that oversees Graded Stakes races should seriously consider withdrawing Graded Status from the Kentucky Derby because of this politically motivated, arbitrary points system which is TURNING THE PREMIER 3YO EVENT into a RESTRICTED STAKES by barring fillies that are capable of winning the Derby, namely, Dreaming of Julia and possibly Midnight Lucky.  The former stamped herself as a flyer in the mold of Rachel Alexandra, running 10 lenghts/2 seconds better than a Florida Derby group containing some of the elite Derby aspirants among the colts on the same day and track, simply amazing.

The integrity and credibility of Thorouhbred racing is at stake here, no joke ...this is very serious.    

31 Mar 2013 2:41 PM


 If they wanted to run her in the Kentucky Derby then she should have run against the boys in the Florida Derby.  She would now have the 100 points and be in the race.

31 Mar 2013 3:23 PM

The "upside down" breeding season is why I wondered if they actually want to try him in the Arce, they could never get the Southern Hemisphere season in this year but would it still be possible to get in an Animal Kimgdom Northern Hemisphere season while they were waiting to get him to Australia after the 2013 Arc.  I forgot about the quarantine period but tchnically, even if it was six months, could they still not get in one season here before he would have to go into quarantine for there?  They'd only lose one Southern Hemisphere season,  however, as an "Australian" horse now, maybe that would be too much.

And lomgwaytomay, I think one of the reasons we are commenting on the "unfairness" of the points system is that all the Grade 1 filly races are absolutely discounted for any points.  So if a trainer wanted to try a filly following without going against the colts first, too bad -- fill.y races mean nothing.

So, once again, if the Pimlico people follow the Churchill Downs route, this would have kept Rachel Alexandra out of her winning race.  I don't think this is correct.  You shouldn't automatically discount the fillies by cheapening their races.  (Let's not even get started on what counts with points and what doesn't!)

31 Mar 2013 3:52 PM


You don't seem to get it. Thoroughbred racing should not be governed by a dictatorship that restricts the quality of competition at the highest level. This would never ...I say NEVER have occurred under the Graded Earnings process of qualifying to run in the Derby. The superior system allows the best horses into the race barring injury and subject to the wishes of the connections. Why should some Racing Directors be determining with such specificity which prep races the Derby aspirants must enter unless what they want is a restricted stakes race? What they're ending up with is not just egg all over their faces but rotten eggs at that ...it stinks!!!

31 Mar 2013 3:58 PM

(I love my IPad but my typing stinks when I can't use a real keyboard and my Grade Ten typing class skills.  Hope you all understood my gist.)

31 Mar 2013 4:09 PM


 I thought that the old system of graded earnings sucked. There were too many horses getting in that had no business being in the race. Shanghai Bobby being a perfect example. I am willing to let them tweak the current one before I condemn it.

31 Mar 2013 4:18 PM

I don't understand the disqualification of the #1 in the 10th at GP.  He came out a little, but the #4 totally over reacted and took out the rest of the field.  Yes, I had him (and the 6) in the late Pick 4.  

If the 2 or 3 wins the last race, I'll be really upset.  

31 Mar 2013 5:57 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Kevin -


I bet two bucks on your 2 horse.

31 Mar 2013 6:17 PM

Actually thought he ran pretty well.  12 was just a monster today.  

And in the late pick 4, I had the 2, 3, 14.  With the 12 going off as the fave, I would have had the PIck 4 if not for the disqualification of the 1 in the 10th race.  Probably would have paid $500 on a $20 ticket.  

I just don't see why the stewards felt the #1 caused the #4 to go so wide.  #1 was clear when he made the move.  #4 got spooked and went wide.

I'm biased as it cost me money.  Others thoughts?    

31 Mar 2013 6:37 PM
Plod Boy Phil

The move was terribly reckless.  These are horse running at 38 mph.  The 4 had no choice but do what he did. Ultimately, the best horse in the race ran 3rd as a result (up to 2nd). I'm expecting Elvis gets a 5-7 day vacation.

I'm happy the 14 did not go,  because I think she's running for 2nd.

31 Mar 2013 6:56 PM

Rusty Weisner both winners ran well but we can always go to the Who did they beat.In the FD I will give Itsmyluckyday the benefit of the doubt but a sprinter finishing 3rd and the longest shot on the board finishing 4th.Romans runs two coming out of maiden races.

In the Louisiana Derby Mylute's trainer Tom Amoss which I have followed said he wasnt sure if he would get 9 panels and he would leave it up to the owners to decide if they run in the Derby.

To me its no coincidence that the raw times are slow. Lets see what the figger boys do with their adjustments(subjectivity) this week.

31 Mar 2013 7:10 PM

After these two preps Black Onyxx looks better the figger boys gave him a 90 didnt they KY Vet?

31 Mar 2013 7:24 PM
Plod Boy Phil

The Louisiana Derby was a very Closer favoring scenario - the splits say so as well the chart.  Look where four of the top five runners were after a half mile:  12th, 11th and 14th.  

The 9f distance at FG poses some challenges for figure makers of all sorts as it is a distance that is very rarely run.  I can tell you that first half miles of 46.34 and second half miles in 51.42 with a final 1/8th in 12.52 do not bode well for speed.  From where I sit at this time,  Departing, Ground Transport and Code West all ran better than final time figures will recognize.

31 Mar 2013 7:31 PM

OK Plod B Phil thanx for that info,heres another tidbit of info that some of you might already know some not.The Louisiana Derby was run at a mile and a sixteenth from 1988-2009 it had been run at 9 panels before then and has been run at 9 panels from 2010-2013.

31 Mar 2013 8:38 PM

Keep in mind everyone that with the rule changes no sprinters have made the field Merit Man finished 3rd in the FD in my book he is still a sprinter.

So it looks like there will be no Trinnibergs this year.

31 Mar 2013 8:42 PM

BTW Plod Boy Phil going back in time, I thought the FOY was a LOT stronger than the Risen Star figurewise but the Beyers were only 5 points apart,the raw figure for the FOY was over 115.

Total race figures dont take into account internal fractions after 6 furlongs in the FOY the time was 1.08 and change sprinting time.That is a grueling race for a colt that can chase that pace and still almost win,i wonder what would of happened if Violence wasnt injured.

Eventhough no sprinters will qualify for this years, Derby I expect a fast pace and a strungout field front to back.All that is contingent on track condition at race time of course.In this case the Derby dosent run for at least an hour after the previous race.

31 Mar 2013 8:56 PM

Ranagulzion : You're complaining about the new points system based on DoJ's and ML's last race.   The new points system wasn't just implemented last weekend, the connections of DoJ or ML knew of the new rules wayyyy back when.  If they thought they were good enough, they would've taken the path where she would get the necessary points to make the derby field.  So far the field for the derby is shaping up to be a good one.  I also don't think fillies should be running against the boys, they don't need to run against the boys to be great.  Rachel Alexandra would've been dominating every race she runs in until she was 7, instead she retired at 4.  Eight Belles had the potential to be a great one, instead...

Anyway, Dreaming of Julia is an A.P. Indy horse, aren't you the one that says A.P. Indy's doesn't stand a chance at winning the Derby, you've reminded Coldfacts many many times about this, why do you think Dreaming of Julia should run in the Derby ??

mz : I don't think the G1 races for fillies were cheapened, they do have the Kentucky Oaks and those races count for the Oaks.  I'm not prejudiced against fillies running against the boys because I don't think they match up but because I think the effort they have to put in to win often if not always have a very bad effect on them.  The number of times a filly runs succesfully against the boys are less than when it breaks them.  One thing I will agree with is the exclusion of the Illinois Derby from the points system, now that is politically motivated which I thought is just wrong but business is business I guess.  Think about how the Oaks field is shaping up, Dreaming of Julia, Midnight Lucky, Beholder, Unlimited Budget, Flashy Gray, Live Lively....that is looking like a race for the ages, specially if they accept KY"s application to be the mascot for this year's Oaks...they'll dress him up as a carrot or a sugar cube.

Using the old system, based on Graded earnings, this is how the field for the Kentucky Derby would look like as of this weekend :

01 - Shanghai Bobby

02 - Orb

03 - Goldencents

04 - Revolutionary

05 - Violence

06 - Bern Identity

07 - Itsmyluckyday

08 - He's Had Enough

09 - Govenor Charlie

10 - Will Take Charge

11 - Vyjack

12 - Black Onyx

13 - Oxbow

14 - Overanalyze

15 - Mylute

16 - Den's Legacy

17 - Uncaptured

18 - Capo Bastone

19 - Ive Struck A Nerve

20 - Fortify

Super Ninety Nine

Know More

Power Broker



Hear The Ghost

Falling Sky

Shakin It Up

Anyone thinks Bern Identity, HHE, Capo Bastone Fortify should be running in the Derby ??  These four have more than enough money to get in but all earned most of it as a 2 yr old.  That's what the new points system was trying to eliminate and it's working...

Sorry for the long post, trying to get in as much as I can before KY starts posting his Mountaineer, DeD and Sam Houston every race picks...

31 Mar 2013 9:02 PM
Plod Boy Phil

re: FOY

Our stance was that the race was not Closer favoring - it was fair for all running styles. The fractions of the FOY as they related to each other and the final time were not out of the 'normal' range for 8.5f races at GP.  Again, attempting to make judgements about the impact of pace on an outcome is made much more difficult without comprehensive track and distance specific models.

31 Mar 2013 9:24 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Winning Colors, Genuine Risk and Althea all prepped successfully against the colts.  Two of the three went on to win the Derby. There was absolutely nothing preventing the connections of DoJ from running against, and likely destroying, the colts in the Flordia Derby. The reason they didn't, I'm guessing,  is that they had no idea that she would unleash such a performance.  Whether she recovers sufficiently to compete in and win the Oaks remains to be seen.  

31 Mar 2013 9:33 PM

Rusty Weisner after my posting "well who did they beat" in  regards to the Louisiana Derby and the Florida Derby, I am going to look at it from the positive side, Orb and Revolutionary were not at fault for their weakling competitors in the two preps this past weekend, they just did what they had to and had an easy race before the Derby, if that is what you want going into a race such as the Derby.Once again Rusty its a fielder's choice and dont ask me whos on 1st, who is.

31 Mar 2013 9:53 PM

Plod Boy Phil 1.08 and change after 6 furlons in an 8.5 furlong race at GP can you name more than a handful for the ENTIRE MEET since you are into the figure methodology.

31 Mar 2013 9:57 PM

Plod Boy Phil the FOY was a tough race it bodes well for ORB that he won that one and followed it up with his Florida Derby win.This is as simple as you want to make it an athletic contest between racehorses, or as complicated as you want to make it,since this is not a science but a sport, I will usually try to simplify it, although I can discuss times and fractions with anyone since Im not bad with numbers.

31 Mar 2013 10:02 PM
El Kabong

Jay Jay, Longwaytomay, Plod Boy Phil,

Well said about the new system. Ranagulizion needs to address reality and the concept of accountability. Frustration that these Fillies are not in the Derby need be directed at those who orchestrated their campaigns to May. The rules have been clear, fair, and apparent to all for some time now. It gives opportunity to all who choose to participate, and that is far from the "governing dictatorship" that Ranag has conjured up in his whirling dervish of an imagination.

01 Apr 2013 10:29 AM

longwaytomay, jay jay,

You both criticise horses of past years that earned their way into the race. They were not gifted with free passes. You should also look at whether their presence prevented better horses from getting in.  Under the Graded Earning system there was only one instasnce of controversy in all the years of that system and it was about Rock Hard Ten in the year of Smarty Jones ...go figure.

jay jay, you are entitled to your opinion about fillies vs colts ...thats neither here nor there. My point is that we shouldn't be second guessing the quality of the Derby field or the Derby winner after the race because arguably a better horse, filly or colt, was barred from entering the race due to of an inferior qualifying system. If you dont get it ...what can I say further?

01 Apr 2013 10:30 AM
Rusty Weisner


That's a knock against Revolutionary:  he beat Mylute.  And I think he's going to have a troubled or wide trip in the Derby, especially if he gets an inside post.  I think Union Rags had these kinds of trip problems last year.

I'm not complaining about the Florida Derby field.  Itsmyluckyday is a horse that has had a 111 Beyer and three races over 100.  Maybe the longer distance wasn't optimal.  Orb beat at least one very good horse.  I forgot to congratulate you on hitting the tri in this race -- it didn't pay that bad:  $154-1.

01 Apr 2013 10:36 AM
Rusty Weisner


They ran the Skip Away at 9.5f two races earlier in the day, so that is a good point of comparison.  I'm not sure how favorably 3-yos are expected to compare against these older horses.  Maybe someone has an opinion.  

01 Apr 2013 10:44 AM

i did warn everyone to be wary if orb was allowed to get a softer pace than he had in the foy...the pace lines appear to have been a more accurate measure of the foy than toeing the consensus line...and yes i am feeling a little vindicated, since instead of simply saying to each his own, phil felt the need to be patronizing.

orb's performances have not displayed those of a closer but of a presser with tactical speed and solid turn of foot.

in the foy of he had 4 horses behind him at the 1/2 and 3 ahead of him in a 9 horse field. when they started bunching up on the turn for home he was technically 5th but only momentarily, and was almost even with the horse in 4th.

contrary to the consensus opinion, he didn't make his move turning for home, he made it between 1/4 of mile and 3/4 of a mile--he ran a 22 second 2nd quarter and a 23 second 3rd quarter. while he did pass tiring horses in the stretch, he did so only because he was decelerating more slowly than those ahead of him--exactly the same as algorithms's win over hansen in the holy bull, which was wrongly attributed to algorithms having sped up, but which the the internal fractions showed was because he was decelerating more slowly than hansen, who had unfortunately run the first 3/4 hell bent for leather (much like violence in the foy--who was clearly a better horse than hansen, as he was able to run faster longer and almost held on to win--in my opinion, violence was pletcher's best horse, maybe not his fastest, but his best none the less).

orb ran the fl derby exactly like he did the foy, but was allowed a much easy pace. in a 14 horse field, he was never farther back than 5th, and just as in the foy he made his move between a 1/4 of mile and 3/4 of a mile--running 23.8 and 24 flat respectively, again passing tiring horses in the stretch, not by accelerating, as a closer would have done, by by decelerating more slowly as a presser does.

look at zenyatta, arguably the greatest closer of all time's internal fractions--she plodded early than laid it on in the stretch. just as dullahan did when beating hansen in the blue grass last year.

aside--bobby's performances have flattered hansen. at this point last year, hansen would have had 104 point, all but 10 earned as a 3 year old, and never finishing worse than 2nd in his preps.

01 Apr 2013 12:11 PM

Rusty Weisner I only hit the exacta I left the sprinter Merit Man out,and I wonder why you got off Orb when you theorized the trip he could have in the FD on a post directed to me, and he got it.

Let me tell you something about Calder based horses and the KD there have been at least two I think that have swept the Florida Stallion series and ran in the Derby and were non-factors,not to say Itsmyluckyday wont be the 1st Calder based colt to run well in the Derby.IMO he already ran his top figure for the year at Gulfstream, because he has what people on here call foundation, which to me means he could have been overraced as a 2yo when his bones and muscles couldnt take the stresses of training and running as well as he would have as a 3yo.For him to even Beyer over a 100 on a track that is probably going to be a little deeper than what he prefers is less than 50% chance IMO.If the track is rock hard then I would give him a chance at being 1st or 2nd otherwise, I would only include him as a pace presence and possibly hang on to a minor award at good odds,of course all that could change with a monster work at Churchill the week of the race such as Hard Spun had the week of his Derby.

I think a lot of people are looking for 1st time winners of the Derby as trainers, and of course the best Beyer as a 3yo figure to boot.

Orb has closed into two different pace scenarios so If you liked him before there is no reason to get off him now.

As far as Revolutionary he closed into slow fractions which if he tries that trip in the Derby he will be far back and will have to manuever in more traffic than he did in the Louisiana Derby.I still might use him, we are still too far away for me to know who else I like besides the 1 or 2 colts that I will determine I like the best.

01 Apr 2013 12:52 PM

Mary Zinke,

You are an exceptionally bright individual and I beseech you not to waste time on a particular contributor who has clearly not been schooled in the social graces.

Trainer Dale Roman does not deserve those types of disparaging remarks.

I cannot understand why Pete allowed those and other disparaging remarks to be posted.

If he continues to allow such obnoxious comments to be displayed on his blog, it give the impression that he endorses them.

Absolutely none of his supporters are of this opinion. However, a decision is overdue on those who have adopted and employed a policy of disrespect.

01 Apr 2013 1:08 PM

Rusty Weisner the commercial aspects of the thoughrobred racing business in the US has made the precocious early winner type the most valuable asset as far as buying racehorses for most of the owners.

They just cost too much and the owners want to see a return on investment,but is it a coincidence that these types DONT WIN THE DERBY I dont think so that falls into my reasoning on the word foundation in 2013.

01 Apr 2013 1:12 PM

Ranagulzion :   You can't fault the system because horses developed late in their 3 yr old season, that's just ridiculous.  People have and will always second guess the winner or the field regardless of what system is used.

So all of the AP Indy's that have run or will run in the Derby, you give them ZERO chance to win and call them summer horses but then Dreaming of Julia deserves to be in the Derby and that she has a chance to beat the boys??  You don't make any sense at all...

Your latest attack on the new points system is coming out of DoJ's win...I'm sure if Overanalyze loses the Arkansas Derby, we'll hear another round from you since he has enough graded earnings.

01 Apr 2013 1:18 PM
El Kabong


While I agree the remarks made about Dale Romans were uncalled for and better of not said, I don't blame Pete. Take solace in the wise words of Groucho Marx:

"It is better to remain silent and be thought a fool, than to open your mouth and remove all doubt."

01 Apr 2013 1:31 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Rusty -

Itsmylucky had Beyers of 104 and 102.  Where does the 111 or the third 100+ Beyer you mention above appear?  Perhaps they are Brisnet figures ?

01 Apr 2013 1:59 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Papillon -

Patronizing ?

That's an awfully long post to congratulate yourself for a $7 winner, isn't it?

Is the realization that closers on dirt are not accelerating but merely decelerating slower than the speed horses supposed to be taken as a eureka moment ?

The simple fact that racing flow rated the FOY as a fair pace scenario, and not closer favoring, made Orb's effort in FOY legit. The rest is superfluous busy work.

01 Apr 2013 2:17 PM
It aint easy being good!

I still think Revolutionary run was far more impressive then orb's. Orb has been running in FL for the past 3 races. Rev. shipped in and fought tooth a nail against 14 horses and ran faster than orb did yet got a lower beyer number. I also feel Revolutionary had alot more in the tank at the end and My lute was not going to get by Rev. I think Rev has a great shot to wear the roses in 5 weeks. I know there are more preps we shall see how the wood and arkansas derby pan out.  

01 Apr 2013 2:43 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Papillon -

Perhaps you should have also noted that the same method you used to land on Orb also led you to 'Pick of the Litter'.  That horse was the reason I responded as I did to your original post of March 28th. Big figure efforts earned against inferior competition are unlikely to be replicated when facing superior horses.  Stress and pressure negatively impacts performance.

Further evidence of my pre-race opinion on the grossly over-matched PotL can be found on SH's Blog.  To save time, you could just ask Coldfacts how absurd I thought the notion that PotL could run with three Graded stakes winners was.

01 Apr 2013 2:53 PM
Rusty Weisner

Plod Boy Phil,

You're right.  Mixed in a Brisnet figure there.  Thanks.

01 Apr 2013 3:33 PM
Rusty Weisner


I put Itsmyluckday on top in every ticket.  I bet in exactas and tris, with Orb underneath in all of them.  I was never off Orb; I had him on every ticket, just not on top.  I bet the tris expecting Shanghai Bobby to be off the board.

01 Apr 2013 3:38 PM
Rusty Weisner


Yes, I suspected Orb wasn't a one-dimensional closer (he got deprecated because he benefited from the pace in beating Violence) and though the Florida Derby might be a test for him.  He passed.  He ran close to the pace and made his own race.  I didn't bet him, though because I thought the other horse was going to be better at this time and place.  I don't know what to think of him now (you're probably right about his chances for the Derby).  I love Orb, though -- but what's not to love about a winner?  Much better Derby prospect than the last two winners of the Florida Derby, at least.  

I thought it was interested that McGaughy was originally expecting to campaign Orb for the Wood -- he thought a generally speed-biased Gulfstream would be to his disadvantage.  So that tells you Orb has surpassed his expectations and makes his own race.

01 Apr 2013 3:52 PM

Plod Boy Phil,

The 2012 Champion 2YO S/Bobby finished 5th and POTL finished 6th.

The track was not kind to closers. If the colt had reproduced his maiden run he would have been in the mix.  The fractions were significantly slower. You will note I specified that if reproduced his maiden effort should be competitive.

Neither you nor I can accurately determine the improvement a young horse makes after each race.

Unlike you I say away from absolute statements.

I was also high on Narvaez and he went off at 99-1 and finished 4th and if you missed it he finished ahead of the multiple stakes winner S/Bobby.

Verrazano won impressively against what you would perceive to be inferior competition. He went on to win the TB Derby.

You are obviously being very selective in your views of impressive MSW winners.

You cannot have if both way.

BTW: Freedom Child will run in the Wood. Your classification of this colt is similar POTL.

The fact that he finished ahead of the eventual LD Derby  winner Revolutionary and 2 1/4L second to the eventual FOY & FL Derby winner Orb in his second start has not spared him from your negative assessment.

Who determines which impressive MSW winners advance to NW2 and which to stakes? The impressive ones are those that are directed to stakes races.

If the partnership that purchased impressive MSW winner Curlin shared your views, he would not have made his next start in a graded stakes race.

For every example you can provide to support your opinion I can provide one to the contrary.

01 Apr 2013 4:07 PM

Plod Boy Phil,

"Coldfacts how absurd I thought the notion that PotL could run with three Graded stakes winners was"

A 99-1 NW2 Allowance winner off short rest ran with and finished ahead of one of the three graded stakes winners.

POTL was 14-1 from a maiden effort.

There is absolutely nothing absurd about running impressive MSW winner in stakes races. Many have won said races.

01 Apr 2013 4:20 PM

In response to Donthateme, I also noticed that the jockey on Mylute stood up and appeared to be choking him back? However, this was not the only instance that it appears horses are not being ridden to the best of their ability. I don't know I am not a racing steward, but this year has been very strange... hmmn something ain't right. Please keep it nice guys.

01 Apr 2013 4:24 PM
Plod Boy Phil


The horse was beaten 13.5 lengths. If you consider that wortht mentioning, so be it.  My absolute statement was that he would not repeat the MSW performance because it was achieved against three horses that will be hard pressed to break there maidens for anything above the bottom claiming levels.

PotL did not bounce - he was unequivocally outclassed from the moment he walked into the saddling enclosurte as a I said he would be.

As for Freedom Child, I have a far greater opinion of him that I did PotL - you should know that.  Yes,  he did race well against top company - something the Runt never did.  Second,  as I stated when you first asked, FC gets credit for a modest 'vs Zip Win' in his 9f MSW win. Does that make him worthy of facing the runners he'll see in the Wood at the risk of potentially damaging his psyche?  I'd say no.  

What Verrazano's Alw1x win has to do with the conversation is beyond me.  I thought we were discussing 3 yo MSW winners in March competing against Graded Stakes winners.

01 Apr 2013 4:25 PM
Plod Boy Phil


Can you provide winners that pay more than $5 to support your argument?

01 Apr 2013 4:27 PM

I told you! coldcuts, the contrarian....mentions many horses, none ever win....one gets 4th, and its like he took viagra! This is what he lives for....a longshot got 4th! yippee! Who would guess....now he mentions another crazy horse with no chance.........i'll tell ya.....if this one gets 3rd........talk about Wood!!!!!!!!

01 Apr 2013 4:32 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Coldfacts -

PotL was 12.4-1 from a ridiculous 6-1 ML.  He was a gross underlay for me at 20-1.

As for Narvaez,  when one's handicapping prowess drives them to take credit for 100-1 shots that run 4th beaten 10 lengths (5 lengths from 3rd), there's nothing to be gained by involving oneself in a serious discussion of the craft.

01 Apr 2013 4:38 PM

Plod Boy Phil,

"The horse was beaten 13.5 lengths. If you consider that worth mentioning, so be it."

I mentioned the colt finished 6th marginally behind one of the graded stakes winner you specified he could not run against.

Providing the # lengths suggest you aere on the defensive. I liked Mine That Bird entering the BCJ and he finished last. He returned 7 month later to win the Derby.

It appear you are of the opinion you have scored a major victory by inferring that POLT will be no better than a claimer.

You are doing serious injustice to your

"Can you provide winners that pay more than $5 to support your argument?"

Kindly do not forget that I am not as bright as you are, consequently you have to be specific when crafting your questions.

I do not recall providing any $5 winners consequently I am at loss.

01 Apr 2013 4:48 PM
Mary Zinke

Why are you thinking about that portion of another guy's anatomy, not to judge ya or anything, KY.

Carter: Sahara Sky.

Wood Memorial: Verrazano

Santa Anita Derby: I want Hear The Ghost to win, but I don't mind if Flashback goes all out to take it--let him put in that much effort.

Add Revolutionary just behind my other two Derby likes, Hear The Ghost and Verrazano.

01 Apr 2013 4:54 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Coldfacts -

The point of the $5 winner was to show that the examples you cited to support this notion of last out MSW winning stakes races are all short priced favorites.  This indicates the Graded races they've won do not fall into the same category of Derby preps in March and April. So, I offer the following assignment:

Please give me a list of MSW winners that went immediately to a victory in a Graded Stake race ove the last five years. From that list, eliminate all 2 yr old races,  since those are typically nothing more than Alw1x races. If possible, provide the corresponding win mutual.

01 Apr 2013 5:09 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Coldfacts -

On the defensive?  Beaten lengths puts finish positions into context. If you wagered on the all/all/all/Narvaez superfecta,  then beaten lengths do not matter -you won.

Again, you are putting words in my mouth.  I did not write the PotL was nothing more than a claimer.  I did write that his big figure was achieved against children and that the expectation that he could repeat the performance against men was unrealistic (a nice way of saying just plain silly).

Perhaps he'll defeat Park City one day....

01 Apr 2013 5:15 PM

Plod Boy Phil,

“As for Narvaez, when one's handicapping prowess drives them to take credit for 100-1 shots that run 4th beaten 10 lengths”

Kindly revisit Pete’s blog dated 20 Dec 2012 and titled Kentucky Derby 2013: Top 20. You will see a post dedicated to Narvaez. The colt has been on my watch list from then.

"there's nothing to be gained by involving oneself in a serious discussion of the craft."

Highlighting him had nothing to do with handicapping or craft. I evaluated him as having more than average talent.

You on the other hand would neither give him a first nor second look.

You clearly do not understand as like many, you measure everything in wins and losses. Which horse filled the 4th position in the superfecta that paid $2K?  

When there are 3 fancied horses in a race the exotics will invariably be very small if they all hit the board in order.  Of the three fancied colts it was common knowledge that S/Bobby was the most vulnerable.

If my assessment about Narvaez was correct and S/Bobby was in fact vulnerable my prospect of making a great return on my investment would be enhanced. Sadly Merit Man was resolute and I missed the tri.

Continue your upgrade/downgrades scheme and I will continue to evaluate talent.

01 Apr 2013 5:17 PM

Mary : I think you just unlocked the key to KY's obsession on Coldfacts, I bet you he will be silently cheering for Coldfacts' horse to get 3rd in the Wood Memorial then he will be all up on him.  Poor Coldfacts.

01 Apr 2013 5:17 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Coldfacts -

One more thing to make the study of some value.  During that same five year period,  how many MSW winners attempted the feat and failed.

01 Apr 2013 5:28 PM
Rusty Weisner

More evidence this new system is great:

- After a 14-horse Louisiana Derby and 10-horse Florida Derby, we'll have a 14-horse Bluegrass

- Shanghai Bobby won't run in the TC races and will rest.  The best 2-year old ran his heart out but just couldn't cut it, couldn't get the points, and won't be run in a race he wasn't meant for.  He probably would have run last year.

01 Apr 2013 5:31 PM

Plod Boy Phil,

“Please give me a list of MSW winners that went immediately to a victory in a Graded Stake race over the last five years.”

The above request must be a joke. Who would have the time to compile 5 year worth of information? It is not sort of request expected from one engaged in serious analysis.

Keep it serious!

Below are 10 horses that have exited 3YO MSW races. Six won and remaining 4 finished in the top three.

Went The Day Well


Governor Charlie



Summer Bird



Midnight Interlude

Rags To Riches

You will not many went on to distinguish themselves in major G1 races.

01 Apr 2013 6:18 PM
Pedigree Ann

El Kabong-

I believe that quotation belongs to one Mark Twain, Samuel L. Clemens in real life. As I was born a Clemmens, I have a special interest in 'Cousin' Sam, even if he spelled his last name wrong (and probably isn't related to me at all). <grin>

01 Apr 2013 6:29 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Racing Flow figures are in.

Louisiana Derby:  Extreme for Closers on a fair dirt course. Thus, we'll give clear cut Downgrades to Revolutionary, Mylute, Golden Soul, Sunbean and even Palice Malice.  Not only was the race slow from a final time figure perspective, the off the pace runners listed above all underachieved despite ideal conditions for closers.  Upgrade Titletown Five (sprinting hopefully), Code West, Ground Transport and Departing.

Florida Derby:  The Flow (pace scenario) had a hint of speed friendliness, but not enough to warrant upgrading or downgrading any of the runners. The seven race dirt card player perfectly fair for all running styles.

01 Apr 2013 6:34 PM
Plod Boy Phil

The quote belongs to Abraham Lincoln.

01 Apr 2013 6:37 PM
El Kabong

Pedigree Ann,

That wouldn't surprise me. Grouch was the last I heard use it so I attributed it to him but it wouldn't surprise me at all. I too am a fan of "cousin Sam," and have quoted him once or twice already, and perhaps thrice you say.  

01 Apr 2013 6:48 PM

Plod Boy Phil,

"One more thing to make the study of some value.  During that same five year period,  how many MSW winners attempted the feat and failed."

You have clearly been engaging in too many exchanges with Mr. Stuck On Stupid.

What exactly will 5 year of data prove that one will not?

Barring dead heats a race is normally won by one horse. Consequently, there will be more loosing MSW winners in graded races than winners.

If by some strange reason you have perceived me to be green, do not also imagine that I am a vegetable.

01 Apr 2013 6:55 PM

the only horse i bet in the two prep races....was palice malice....who couldnt even run, he had so much trouble.....hence, they will wheel him right back....prob bluegrass.....if you doubt...watch the re run

01 Apr 2013 6:57 PM

so...if keeping track....one of the rediculously slow mdns....one of about 40 that coldcuts has mentioned........got 4th! whoooyeaaaaaa! exciting stuff!

01 Apr 2013 6:59 PM
El Kabong

Would Anyone else like to claim ownership of the quote,

"It is better to remain silent and be thought a fool, than to open your mouth and remove all doubt."

I have one Twain, one Lincoln, a site that claims everyone from Silvan Engel to George Eliot, to Albert Einstein to Oscar Wilde and Woodrow Wilson(that  last one is hard to believe). Oh well, I'm sure no one delivered the line better than Groucho :|)

01 Apr 2013 7:01 PM
Plod Boy Phil

El K -

On that I would agree.

01 Apr 2013 7:04 PM
El Kabong




01 Apr 2013 7:07 PM

El Kabong,

"It is better to remain silent and be thought a fool, than to open your mouth and remove all doubt."

The above is only applicable to forums where exchanges  are verbalized.

01 Apr 2013 7:16 PM
Plod Boy Phil


I agree - PM had significant trouble.  

01 Apr 2013 7:19 PM
Plod Boy Phil

If ever there was a doubt, the 7:16 pm post sealed the deal.

01 Apr 2013 7:22 PM
Mary Zinke

Now I understand the confusion.

Ridiculous, from ridicule.

Re-diculous, from what has been occupying your mind. Can't really blame ya.

I used to think you were purposely misspelling that word in order to remain incognito, KY.

01 Apr 2013 7:25 PM

KY Vet

Make that two picks that Coldfacts made that finished 4th one in the Spiral one in the Florida Derby.

He likes Mr Palmer in the Wood wataya think Vet should we key in 4th for the super.

01 Apr 2013 7:28 PM


A lot of contributors do not understand that highlighting Orb, S/Bobby and Itsmyluckday heading into the FL Derby would be meaningless as they were the top three.

There is always a longshot that find its way into the mix.  That where money is made.

If the 99-1 horse finished 3rd I would have made a lot of money while spending very little in the process. I flagged that colt long ago.

Those who consider him slow would not use him and settle for the miniscule exacta. Those who like my assessment were likely to use him in their superfectas and make money.

When I was touting Shackleford in the 2011 FL Derby I was considered crazy. The focus was on Dialed In, To Honor and Serve and Flashpoint. Shascklford lost by as SH @60-1.

There is no need for you to waste your sympathy on me I can ably defend myself against the likes of Mr. SOS and others.

01 Apr 2013 7:36 PM
Mary Zinke

Cold Facts, I just read your beseechment.  That was very nice of you to give me that compliment, thanks. I have fun challenging KY the very few times that I can. Don't take his wickedness to heart Cold Facts. Maybe the spell will be broken, but this rather wild individual with the super huge ego is intriguing. No idea why he's not so mean to me.

01 Apr 2013 7:38 PM

Plod Boy Phil

"If ever there was a doubt, the 7:16 pm post sealed the deal."

Since my post is the one with the above time, Kindly elaborate.

Since the exchanges in this forum are in written words how does the mouth come into play?

01 Apr 2013 7:41 PM

Rusty Weisner yeah S.Bobby would have been in the gate with last years rules, and when choosing who to put in at the bottom of vertical exotic bets, he would be hard to leave off the ticket for many, and burn up a lot of money for US the ones who support this sport.

01 Apr 2013 7:53 PM
Mary Zinke

The quote--Churchill?

01 Apr 2013 7:55 PM

Coldfacts if Mr Palmer finishes 3rd or 4th I will be waiting for your Derby pick because you need at least one price horse to win a good exotic and I havent made up my mind on Black Onyx and his prospects to sneek in the tri or super(lottery ticket for me)

01 Apr 2013 8:01 PM

Mary Zinke,

Several years ago I saw a post on the MSNBC Message Board with the following question:

Who is this coldfacts?

It was posted by Mr. SOS. Since that question was posted, Mr. SOS has found me to be very attractive and has use caveman like approach to get my attention.

Unfortunately his obsession has grown worst over the years and in spite of my advising him that my preference lies in members of your gender, he remains relentless in his pursuit.

I ignore him of the most time as  anyone that engages in self-glorification and disrespect should be ignored as such individuals are empty.

01 Apr 2013 8:02 PM

Early prediction:

If Palace Malice meets Revolutionary and Orb in the Kentucky Derby, he will finish in front of both of them. He only needed a better trip to have won Saturday.

01 Apr 2013 8:04 PM

coldcuts statement...If by some strange reason you have perceived me to be green, do not also imagine that I am a vegetable.

A vegetable has more brain activity!

01 Apr 2013 8:06 PM
Mary Zinke

Coldfacts, do you have links to those old msn blogs?  There's a lull in SoCal racing when the Fairplex meet is running. I'd have time for amusement of that type then. Otherwise, I know it's difficult to let it go when you're the one being attacked, but he could just be making himself laugh, just being silly.

01 Apr 2013 8:13 PM

Coldfacts : Fair enough.  I never doubted you, but it's also a hobby of mine to make fun of the classroom clown.

I agree with your comments about longshots.  I personally don't like spending the whole day at the track playing favorites, some people like it but I don't.  I play the horses to make money I can take home, not to pick a winner so that I can post in the blog I picked a favorite to win a race.  I see those types at the track all the time, they scream the loudest when the favorite wins and you ask them what they hit and they go "oh, just a $5 win"... but I got him on my P3 which more often than not, loses because they picked the heavy favorites on the next two legs....it's just a waste of time.

As I've said before, I'm not afraid to bet longshots because I bet small, putting them on top when I think the horse has a chance because that's the only way to win big.   BTW, I'm one of those that used Narvaez in the 4th spot except I played SBobby and IMLD on top.  I just didn't think they'll go after the win and push Orb but turns out, it was a pretty easy win for him.

Keep doing what you're doing, a lot of folks do enjoy your posts.  There will always be pretenders and folks who actually know what they're talking about.  I've been reading this blog for a long time and I can spot one, or two or three easily.

Mary Zinke : I think it's pretty obvious why he's not being mean to you, girls stick together.  But now that you outed him, you might take some heat for it.

01 Apr 2013 8:16 PM

RID....as in get rid....all coldcuts horses are loosing!

01 Apr 2013 8:17 PM

did itsmylucky day peak? 95 beyer? silence huh?................for 2 months....ive heard blah blah......perfect trip....empty! no credit huh?.........

01 Apr 2013 8:23 PM

I dont "pick" on anybody....she knows the game.....jay doesnt use a form! coldcuts posts insanely idiotic posts......what i say is true......

01 Apr 2013 8:27 PM


There is likely to be two undefeated horses entering the starting gates in the Wood. One will exit with a tarnished record.

Verrazano is an exceptional colt and Vyjack is a competitive gelding.

Varrazano appear to be the lone speed. However, Freedom Child, Transparent and Elnaawi could keep in close touch.

Vyjack, Normandy Invasion, Mr. Palmer should bring up the third panel. I believe Mr. Palmer will be ahead of both and will be closing the fastest of the three.

I will be wagering exotics with five horses: Varrazano, Freedom Child,  Elnaawi, Normandy Invasion and Mr. Palmer.

I have to exclude on of the top two and Vyjack get the vote. I am hoping the blinkers will be removed from Transparent as he could be used instead of  Normandy Invasion.

The stalemate of Normandy Invasion is an interesting entry. He is more of a Bluegrass type and I am wondering why the connections chose the Wood. Although given to much to do, he ran a very good race to RYDILLUC.

Mr. Palmer will be used in all four positions.

01 Apr 2013 8:36 PM

I believe I can pick exactas because I picked more than a handful a week in 2010 but when I multiplied my ADW account and thought I could do the same with 10 cent supers, I had a couple of tough beats and continued losing and depleted some of my hard earned bankroll, instead of sticking with something that works.

I have won over 20 supers but most of them were for 10cents,as far as tris I hardly play in this pool but I have picked probably between 10 and 20.

The vertical exotics that pay the most are the ones that are the hardest to logically pick, thats why when picking exactas I use a spacing method that I follow with a lot of disipline, even more when the other part of the bet not the one I am keying is double figure odds.

In the KD the odds are a lot different for obvious reasons,but I have always been a student of the odds and I use angles with the Derby odds, because this one of the ONLY KNOWNS before the gate opens.

I am not playing every day now and not playing the amounts that I have in the past.

The Kentucky Derby is the one race where I will bet more because it is like playing the lottery with some skill.

01 Apr 2013 8:41 PM

Mary Zinke,

I am not sure the MSNBC Message Board can be accessed. It would be very nice if it was accessible as you would get a chance to view some very informative threads.

If I could access the board I could secure and repost my threads dedicated to Rachael Alexander, Mine That Bird and Summer Bird long before they became stars.

Sadly you would also view a lot of the rude and disrespectful post  courtesy of the KY VET.

There were some very  knowledgeable contributors who were likewise attacked by The VET.

The individual is very sick

01 Apr 2013 9:02 PM

Facts like.....the horse has a swan neck....the storm cat isnt chestnut.....the factor has perfect stride for long distance....the post railing the guy who liked a horse from dubai, saying the coldfacts are they have never done well, but the next year, picking a horse from dubai....listing 251 promising mdns....declaring NEW COKE would rule the market.....saying facebook was just a flash in the pan....myspace was clearly better......Clearly the moon mission was faked....E.T. the movie, was too unrealistic....would bomb in the theaters.......that his home is a TRAILOR! not a TRAILER!

01 Apr 2013 9:29 PM

Remember coldcuts? the horse i said was a cinch? RAVENS PASS? 10 to 1? How about the 5000 i won on street sense? forget that? You hated Super saver! over 1,700 on that one....come on...admit it! people laughed at you on there.....

01 Apr 2013 9:32 PM

really? mar30th 2yr olds racing already? lrl racetrack

01 Apr 2013 9:44 PM
El Kabong


I understand your frustration with Palace Malice but at what point do you have to admit that unless the Red Sea parts for him he will always find a reason to be inconvenienced? Stupid is as stupid does said a slow man and he was right. Perhaps he hasn't the wit of other horses to avoid such dilemmas or perhaps his jockey is negligent?  Either way, a field of 20 spells doom even if his connections are stubborn enough to push him into another race, and by stubborn I mean stupid. He is talented but unwise at this point. I say give him help, not obstacles. The fruit may fall late, but better that than not at all. He is a very good horse but, he hasn't figured it out like say a street sense who had the where with all to pierce a crowd of ne'er do wells. Instruction for this guy first.

01 Apr 2013 11:06 PM
Mary Zinke

He noticed a horse's conformation or coat color? I have read others' comments about chestnut Smart Strikes being ones to watch, but maybe they are just thinking of some outstanding offspring of that sire. Just adds conversation points--doesn't have to be a reason to wager on that chestnut. I may not like a horse that had raced in Dubai, to then win a U.S. stakes, but the next year, given a completely different field, I may include one, superior to the horse from the prior year, that prepped in Dubai. What's wrong with that?  No, I don't find extenuating circumstances to like as many maidens, however, they could improve and be part of a super and at very high odds. KY, lol, Coke executives thought New Coke would rule the market.  You don't use either facebook or myspace, do you, so what's that point? I grew up thinking nothing of men going to the moon--don't ruin that on me by bringing up hoax theories, please. Never saw E.T. at the theater--kids not the right age. Not a favorite film, but yes extremely popular. I don't give one where anyone lives. Next post: Nice winnings, but I care more about narrowing down contenders, and learning how to wager on them properly for a steady R.O.I. Haven't gotten there yet. Looking forward to picks posts, even swan-necked chestnut long shots.

01 Apr 2013 11:17 PM
1:08 and change


Keep the bashing up on Coldcuts.  Hilarious.

Coldcuts:  think you take up enough space on these blogs? blah blah blah blah blah.  Pick a winner already and quit living off your 2009 score.

01 Apr 2013 11:21 PM

El Kabong : Agreed with PM, I played him even though I wasn't really a fan of Prado, I just don't think he's a top caliber jockey anymore.  At this point, I think it's a little too late for PM, he's way behind and I just hope they wait and save him for the Belmont.  I don't like that he's going to try and run in the Bluegrass, he might actually keep my derby horse out lol.

TRAILOR ?!?  That's REdiculous!

01 Apr 2013 11:43 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

El Kabong

  It was Plato. Before that I don't know who it was. You just won fifty bucks. The secret word was "wise." Now take that fifty and win 5k in a superfecta. At least 6 horses have been named Quick Draw, but none Queeck Draw.

02 Apr 2013 12:14 AM
Dr Drunkinbum


  Good to see the voice of reason back. I talked to a guy at GG in 1986 that swore every race was rigged that he lost. He only bet the favorite in each race and thought they were always supposed to win, if the favorite didn't win he thought there was shenanigans involved.

02 Apr 2013 12:17 AM

Dr. D :  Thanks!  Yeah, someone has to step up on this side of the bloodhorse blog lol.  I know that dude at GG, he owns imaginary horses now and travels around the internet world as a blog clown.  Still a bitter man but at least now he has an outlet.

02 Apr 2013 1:16 AM

I mentioned before that NI looks good in the Wood because of Castellano but then I remembered his ride on El Padrino, he was more worried about UR than the horses up front.  I hope he lets NI run his race which I believe is good enough to beat this field.  I'll play him with Vyjack.

SA Derby...I don't like Flashbacks chances here with the speedy S99. Power Broker's workouts getting noticed everywhere but I think Jerry's horse is the one to beat here.  I'll play HtG with Power Broker and Goldencents and throw in S99 just in case he holds on for the bottom exotics.

1:08 : How old are you ?  You sound like one of those kids that follows the wannabes in HS.  Who's your pick in the Wood and SA Derby ?

02 Apr 2013 1:46 AM
El Kabong

Thanks Dr. D!

That's the first time I've managed to get the duck to drop. Yahoo! But tell me, who replaced that C note with a Grant?

02 Apr 2013 6:32 AM

Coldfacts who said Transparent was running in the Wood,where are your facts coming from?

From  the public well known media sites there are 8 entered in the Wood and from what I know Transparent isnt one of them.

As for the Wood itself, Elnaawi was bumped from the start of the Gotham when West Hills Giant crossed over on the field from post 11.

Mclaughlin gets well bred prospects from Darley and Shadwell that he trains to be forwardly placed for the most part.

I wouldnt be surprised if Elnaawi draws inside the other speed and takes the lead this time,which is the best way to avoid traffic.

I am not a breeding expert but I dont need to be to know if Elnaawi has the ability he can hang on to win running on the front.

Verrazano dosent gun to the lead he gets first jump on the field after settling into stride,I think we are seeing his races differently.

I wrote about the differences in the trainers handling of their trainees after Normandy Invasion was beat by less than a length by S.Bobby.This is by far the best group of colts to run in ANY Prep thus far.

BTW the SA Derby could be salty also have even begun to look at that one.I admit I know the east coast a lot better.

02 Apr 2013 8:33 AM

Mary Zinke,

Majority of Storm Cat's best sons are chestnuts. Why is this interesting? He is a brown horse.

His dam sire Secretariat is one of the greatest chestnut of them all and I have often wondered if there is a link.

This is only an observation. Only an idiot would conclude that horses colors have anything to do with their abilities and I have state this repeatedly.

When there is a talented Storm Cat Chestnut on the seen I pay more attention based of the history of his chestnut sons.

If I was in the market for a Storm Cat my preference would be a Chestnut. To some this is an insignificant bit of information and I agree.

Bluegrass Cat was a very good son of Storm Cat and he is a bay.

There are those who do not understand certain points even when clarification are provided.

I cannot be held responsible for the few here who have their heads to separate their ears.

02 Apr 2013 8:33 AM

My bad in my 8:33 stated S Bobby beat Normandy Invasion it was actually Overanalyze.At the time I stated that this would be a good experiment as to how the different trainers Brown and Pletcher handled their triple crown hopefuls that had raced in graded stakes at the age of two.

02 Apr 2013 8:58 AM
1:08 and change


I have a large headed long necked three legged son of storm cat for sale.  However, he has an apaloosa coat.  Any interest?

02 Apr 2013 1:11 PM
Mary Zinke

That little dig about the Appaloosa reminded me of the first offspring of Secretariat, First Secretary.


02 Apr 2013 1:24 PM

COLDCUTS.......WHAT COLOR IS THE SKY.......in your world?

02 Apr 2013 6:34 PM

SURE 108! Only if its a may foal...out of an unraced,barbados sire.....an unraced mare from compton.......with 7 letters in its name.......p.s. no figure 8 bridle....i hate that!.....can i use 7 trainers?

02 Apr 2013 6:37 PM

Wow...look at the speed ratings

orb- beyer 97    bris-97

revolutionary beyer 93   bris 105........dont know if ive seen it more different......weird tracks that day.....

02 Apr 2013 7:17 PM

Zenyatta just delivered her 2nd foal......the baby was foaled 8 minutes faster than rachel's....................get over it!

02 Apr 2013 8:03 PM
Plod Boy Phil


I mentioned on Sunday that the FG 9f races would pose a challenge for figure makers - there have been very few of them run in the last 8 years.  

02 Apr 2013 8:39 PM


Transparent was listed amongst the probables. I have not learnt that he is going to an allowance race.

"Normandy Invasion was beat by less than a length by S.Bobby"

I think it was Overanalyze.


His dam sire Deputy Minister only needs a Derby winner to complete the Triple Crown trifecta. He was dam sire to Preakness winner Curlin and dam sireto Belmont winners Rags To Riches, Jazil and Sarava.

I like the colt as he is from the Mr. Prospector sire line. However, I have some issues with his trainer.

02 Apr 2013 9:07 PM


SA Derby:

If you listen carefully you might just Hear The Ghost that will be haunting the SA Derby.

You have to listen as he will not be seen.

Those who were critical of the rider of Flashback will realize that it will take more than a change of rider to catch this ghost..  

02 Apr 2013 9:28 PM

1:08 and change,

"Coldfact I think you take up enough space on these blogs?"

At the time and date of the above post i.e.,01 Apr 2013, 11:21 PM, The following contributors had the following number of posts:

KY VET - 16

Plod Boy Phil - 36


Rusty Weisner - 14

Coldfacts 13

Now let me enlighten you since you lack the awareness.

You are not the moderator of this blog and consequently you do not have the authority issue directives.

It is apparent you have jointed forces with the KY VET and you now jointly have an obsession with me.

Let me make it exceedingly clear I desire no obsessive attention from member of my gender as I am asstright as an arrow.    

02 Apr 2013 9:58 PM
Plod Boy Phil


His referred to 'space' on the blog - not number of posts.  Please provide relevant information if you feel the need to rebutt.

02 Apr 2013 10:09 PM
1:08 and change

Coldcuts:  Where did I issue a directive?  Was just wondering when this became your personal chronicle of the history of every breeding line or cross ever known to mankind.  They should charge you by the word for this stuff.  Directive?  Pot calling kettle.  I read earlier where you criticized Pete for allowing certain posts.  Who's issuing the directives?

02 Apr 2013 11:38 PM
1:08 and change


Old enough.  I will let you know who my final picks are before Sat.  But I can tell you now that I will have a major play on Vyjack at the right price.  

02 Apr 2013 11:45 PM
1:08 and change

to the tune of 40k....lol

02 Apr 2013 11:51 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Long live the 'vs Plod Winner'

03 Apr 2013 12:11 AM
Forbidden Apple

I see no shame in running second in the FL Derby. Plesa stated that the FL Derby was not the ultimate goal. The final time was not impressive at all, just a prep race. Itsmyluckyday is 10 lengths better than he ran on saturday.

Revolutionary broke nearly last again and Orb was extremely worked up and covered with sweat before the race.

Nothing changed here, continuous trash talking and zero winners unlocked.

03 Apr 2013 3:31 AM

The Wood is as of right now an 8 horse field which to me means it is a hitable Super,but not with high payoffs.

If Elnaawi runs 1st or 2nd and makes the field for the KDerby I will defintely use him,Im not concerned about the notion that he only has a cetain amount of races.

03 Apr 2013 10:21 AM
Pedigree Ann

Dr. D -

That is QueekS Draw. I remember. I was a kid then, too.

03 Apr 2013 10:58 AM
Rusty Weisner

Forbidden Apple,

People aren't knocking the performance so much as expressing doubts about his pedigree.  

He looked like he ran his race and was beaten by the better horse, a horse about which there's no doubt pedigree-wise.  I'm trying to think of a recent comparable Derby winner who was just flat-out beaten in his final prep that way.  Some people liked Creative Cause when he was 2nd in the SA Derby last year, saying it was okay, he wasn't fully cranked.  But winning is better than not winning.

Itsmyluckyday's pluses are on paper.  He's run fast consistently and this was his second back after a 2-mo layoff.  Incidentally, he didn't fire at Delta Downs when he came back from an earlier 2-mo layoff.

I think his odds will be really long in the Derby -- 15-1 or better.  I don't like him, but you're a good player and I'll make a note of him.

03 Apr 2013 12:10 PM
Forbidden Apple

Itsmyluckyday ran a mile in 1:34 1/5 earlier in the Gulfstream Park meet. The mile split in the FL Derby was 1:37 4/5 in the FL Derby. Does anyone really believe that this horse regressed 18 lengths because of the distance of 1 1/8 miles? He ran 18 lengths slower at 1 mile, so forget about the extra 1/8. I can only say that his trainer knows best and his goal is the KY Derby. Talent like his does not just fade away rapidly, he is far better than his FL Derby flop. If he came out of the race sound, then I'm all in on him for the KY Derby. It was an incredibly slow race, just a prep.

03 Apr 2013 12:33 PM
Forbidden Apple

BIG A April 3:

Race 7- #7 Kingofthebluegrass 4-1

This is a tough race to handicap, this horse looks fit after several decent workouts. Daily double into the 8th race.

Race 8- #2 Percussion 2-1

His last race was sharp, all he needs is a repeat of that performance. He did have an easy lead and finished fast. He cuts back to a mile, look out.

03 Apr 2013 12:45 PM

Rusty Weisner,

The Derby winners listed below  all finished second in there final Derby preps.

Real Quiet

Funny Cide

Street Sesnse


Probably one will suitable for a comparison.

03 Apr 2013 12:46 PM

Forbidden Apple,

Save your money Itmyluckday will not be effective at 10F.

He defeated S/Bobby who is stamina challenged. He tracked a slow pace in the FL Derby and was unable to repel Orb who was under the whip to get on terms.

Orb uses a lot of energy to run and if he could not repel him, the smoother closers are going to devour him.

Stick with Hear The Ghost and keep an eye on Footbridge in the Bluegrass as  synthetic is his  referred surface.

Noble Tune is an exceptional talent as well and both are better than Itmyluckday.

03 Apr 2013 12:55 PM

Santa Anita Derby:

1 Flashback 9/5

2 Hear The Ghost 5/2

3 Power Broker 5-1

4 Tiz A Minister 6-1

5 Goldencents 6-1

6 Super Ninety Nine 6-1

7 Summer Exclusive 20-1

8 Storm Fighter 20-1

9 Dirty Swagg 50-1

03 Apr 2013 1:23 PM
Rusty Weisner


Thanks.  Real Quiet is actually too far back for me.

I thought of Funny Cide and Street Sense.  Funny Cide is a closer comparison, but he dueled all the way down the stretch with Empire Maker. Street Sense ran the Bluegrass on synthetic and was nipped in a cavalry charge and no one held it against him.  

I'm with you on Itsmyluckyday.  I don't like a loser going into the Derby, and I'll buy the consensus that his pedigree is suspect.  Plus he'll be leaving his preferred track.

03 Apr 2013 1:28 PM
Rusty Weisner


Other losers were Giacamo, Mine that Bird, Super Saver.

03 Apr 2013 1:33 PM
Forbidden Apple

Thanks for the advice, but I have no problem thinking for myself. I know how to flow my own boat. Itsmyluckyday is far better than his FL Derby effort.

03 Apr 2013 1:33 PM
Rusty Weisner

Forbidden Apple,

I'll buy it.

It was really slow, especially when you compare it to the Oaks and the Skip Away that day.

03 Apr 2013 1:39 PM
Forbidden Apple

So you guys really think Itsmyluckyday regressed 18 lengths since the G.P. Derby? He went from a stakes winner to a claimer because of a 1 1/8 mile race. Be serious and think again.

03 Apr 2013 1:53 PM
1:08 and change


I am with ya.  Agree totally on LuckyDay.

03 Apr 2013 2:08 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Forbidden -

VET said it best after the Holy Bull,  "that ship has sailed".

Itsmyluckyday is the latest poster child for the damaging effect big pairs have on young 3 yr olds.  Do you think that he was going to go from being a horse running consistent 78 route Beyers on dirt to running paired 100's without any repercussions?

Going forward, the closer he gets to running another 100+ Beyer,  the greater damage it will do.

Good luck.

03 Apr 2013 2:12 PM

Aqueduct - Saturday, April 6, 2013

Race 11 - 6:28 PM    


Wood Memorial S. (Grade I)

Purse $1,000,000.  For Three Year Olds. One And One Eighth Miles.  










1 Chrisandthecapper (KY)   3/C L J Lezcano 123 J Servis

2 Normandy Invasion (KY)   3/C L J Castellano 123 C C Brown

3 Quinzieme Monarque (KY)   3/C L1 I Ortiz, Jr. 123 T Albertrani

4 Elnaawi (KY)   3/C L E Castro 123 K P McLaughlin

5 Vyjack (KY)   3/G L J Rosario 123 R R Rodriguez

6 Mr Palmer (KY)   3/C L J Alvarado 123 W I Mott

7 Always in a Tiz (KY)   3/C L C H Borel 123 D A Schettino

8 Verrazano (KY)   3/C L J R Velazquez 123 T A Pletcher

9 Go Get the Basil (NY)   3/C L J L Ortiz 123 R A Violette, Jr.

10 Freedom Child (KY)   3/R L1 E Trujillo 123 T Albertrani

03 Apr 2013 2:13 PM

Forbidden Apple,

Its a rare thing for us to agree ...it must be my lucky day (LOL).

Trainer Plesa knows what he's doing with this colt ...IMLD is on track to be a major factor on the first Saturday in May.

03 Apr 2013 2:26 PM


He going to track Verrazano and then sprint away from whom?

While I think the 60 day impacted his performance none of the horses he decimated in the Gulfstream Park Derby will be in the Kentucky Derby.

The best horse he has defeated is S/Bobby who will be out of the Derby.

The one horse he met that was capable of closing ran by him.

Is he going to be able to out run Orb, Revolutionary, Her The Ghost, Will Take Charge, Mr. Palmer Footbridge etc.?

The cold  facts suggest  a big NO!

03 Apr 2013 4:26 PM
1:08 and change

All stakes P4 at the big A:

R8: 1. Walkwithapurpose 2. Close Hatches

R9: 2. Maleeh 8. Clearly Now (will play all here as well)

R10: 1. Saturday's Charm 4. Sahara Sky

R11: 5. Vyjack 6. Mr. Palmer (will play ticket with Verrazano as well)

03 Apr 2013 5:01 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Hawthorne- Race 7

1 Tribute to Momma: impressed in last against easier with a 'vs Plod Win'.  Was upgraded coming into that race for the strong closing run behind the w-w winner of a speed favoring race.  Should get pace up front today.

03 Apr 2013 5:38 PM

PBP, Contreras rode the hair off Momma from the half mile pole but the leader was long gone..........Nice try

03 Apr 2013 6:14 PM
Plod Boy Phil

No match for the loose deuce.

03 Apr 2013 6:41 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Pedigree Ann

   That sounds right. Thanks. The very first cartoon I loved was Ruff and Ready, then Goofy after that, then a bunch of them. Bullwinkle lasted the longest. We used to watch that in college. Laurel and Hardy, Superman and Truth or Consequences were some of the shows I liked at a young age. Fury also.

03 Apr 2013 6:47 PM

Plod.....you and i can disagree....and we dont cry like babies.....you and i give credit when due.......some people cant.........do you know the 2 months of crap i took for posting itsmyluckyday would regress?   It was easy for me, but beginners dont get it.....the horse couldnt get easier trip! how he lost, i dont know....ok yes i do.......no credit given......

03 Apr 2013 8:04 PM

man....haskin didnt post my joke....i guess a sense of humor is off limits.....comedy should not be censored..............some woman posted she had a dream that a 69-1 won the derby.......and was gonna look and bet a horse those odds............................i post...i too had a dream....about that same number........................................................come on, you cant tee it up like that!

03 Apr 2013 8:10 PM

Hands KY VET a plate of credit...with a side of cheese to go with the whine.   In the same post, you said you don't cry like babies, then you cry for not getting credit lol.  Keep crying... I mean trying...

03 Apr 2013 8:11 PM

I especially like the blog, on haskins blog,.......about the horse that had all of that adversity! The one, where the horse almost died, but against all odds.......became a success!  Oh wait! Thats ALL of his blogs......they bring tears to our eyes!    It kinda like watching the show HOUSE..........same thing every time.........so heartwarming!    I read it before bed!

03 Apr 2013 8:17 PM

Now, we hear the HE WASNT FIT CARD?.....i see this OVER and OVER.....people think because a horse hasnt run in 2 months.....that he is not fit......you dont know what you are talking about! Or the STKS horse isnt ready after months off...........or the "trainer doesnt have him cranked because he has enough points!....Listen! These trainers are trying to get their horses as sharp, and as good as they can! ITS THE DERBY!....It takes every race to get them there....you dont back off on them! Who teaches you guys this stuff? You think a workout means much to the horse?  This stuff is SO OVER RATED!

03 Apr 2013 8:24 PM
Plod Boy Phil


It's a very cerebral crowd next door in SH's room. Perhaps if you had written a 200 word ramble with the joke mixed in.  Maybe Zarvona or Slew would oblige....

03 Apr 2013 8:33 PM
Rusty Weisner


I took a stab at responding to the "69" comment, but no one followed my lead.  I'm glad I'm not the only one who noticed.  

03 Apr 2013 8:56 PM

plod.....you too huh? i havent said anything, but i cant even read the posts of zarvona...and 2 women in there.....they have high iq's type 200 words, dont say anything....scary!......and not enough dots!......................

03 Apr 2013 8:58 PM

Horse #2 to the track on the 15th..........was gonna say , he's better than horse #1......but the way #1 is acting/training.........maybe not................btw....it costs alot to be an owner!

03 Apr 2013 9:01 PM

funny thing...tup race 7 mar30th..turf.....#2 was flying to win, took weird step....slid 10 feet...........all of this....the jock stayed on..........nice ride jock....horse barely finished, but way to stay on!

03 Apr 2013 11:34 PM

Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.

04 Apr 2013 12:07 AM
Mary Zinke

Now he has to let everyone know that he wants dinner and dessert at the same time.  Try a bath and GPS and may your dreams come* true, KY.

04 Apr 2013 12:53 AM
Forbidden Apple

Only at NYRA do you get a non starter and a disqualification in a five horse field. What advantage did Schoolyard Dreams have over the field? And what disadvantage did Smash have? Both horses were tired and the start of the race had nothing to do with the eventual order of finish. The 7th/8th daily double went from paying $68 down to $48.

Unless Itsmyluckyday came out of the race with an injury, I expect hime to rebound with a big effort in the KY Derby. I can not accept that he went from a killer to a claimer, his muscles and power suddenly vanished.


Yes the best horse Itsmyluckyday defeated was Shanghai Bobby. And the best horse Orb has beaten is Itsmyluckyday. Maybe both of them are not that good. Remember that his FoY victory was over a horse running down the stretch with a broken ankle. I'm pretty much tired of your so called facts. I think it's time you changed your name to Cold Opinions. Mr. Palmer will have to take off his training wheels to run with the fast closing Vyjack.

KY Cheap Talker,

It's funny how over and over again you wait for a horse to lose. Now this horse is finished because of one average race. Yet when Flashback was cooked on the lead, you expect him to come back firing rockets at his competition. Always crying and knocking other picks while offering zero. I'll give you credit for being the most sarcastic loud mouth on these blogs. Let me guess, your stakes picks this weekend are Verrazano and Flashback. Chalk it up again!

04 Apr 2013 6:31 AM

Forbidden Apple,

I am not knocking Itmyluckyday because of his loss and must concede that I have not communicated my view in sufficient details.

Itmyluckyday had about 57 days between his last race and the Delta Jackpot. He finished off the board. The 60 days between the Holly Bull and FL Derby could have impacted his performance. He is certainly capable of running faster and the same can be said about Orb. However, there was something that was exposed in the FL Derby.

He was forwardly placed in the HB and went by S/Bobby en route to victory. No other horse in the HB had the ability to close on the top two and therefore Itsmyluckday sailed home unopposed after disposing of S/Bobby..

He was similarly forwardly placed in the FL Derby and went by Merit Man a move similar to the one he displayed in the HB.  However, on this occasion one horse came running at him and he could not repel the challenge. Was his inability to repel the challenge due to a lack of full fitness? This possibility certainly exists.

Let’s assume he regains full fitness for the Derby. Like all who make the cut, he will be facing the largest and strongest field in his racing career. It is likely that he will be forwardly placed in fractions much faster. It is also likely that he will make his usual move on the leaders when appropriate.

Based on his FL Derby performance, do you really see him as a colt that will be able to maintain any advantage gained in the last quarter against some of the best closers he will be facing?

He just does not strike me to be that kind of colt. It’s not knocking him it’s just was his profile reflects.

04 Apr 2013 8:19 AM
Forbidden Apple

To answer your question, yes I see him capable of sitting behind much faster fractions and then putting the field away. That was what I was expecting in the FL Derby. Again, only his trainer knows whats up with the horse. He is either damaged goods or sitting on a big performance. I see him doing what Barbaro did, exploding down the stretch. Maybe I'm on the wrong horse, we'll see. I am equally high on Hear the Ghost. Horses that sit and wait and then explode are what I'm looking for.

Besides the Ghost, who are the powerful closers? So far, I like the latest closing kick from Vyjack.

You never answered my question from last week. Are you from Barbados?

04 Apr 2013 11:02 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Credit to Darley and McLaughlin for placing Transparent where he belongs - in an Alw1x today at AQ.  

04 Apr 2013 11:14 AM
Forbidden Apple

I wonder what the going rate is for a 29% share of Animal Kingdom? After that performance, he should be an obvious downgrade next out. I think he just peaked over the moon. He had to leave the country for a win. He was no match for Wise Dan or Point of Entry.

04 Apr 2013 11:21 AM

Forbidden Apple,

I am from the land of Bob Marley and Usain Bolt.

04 Apr 2013 11:22 AM
1:08 and change


I agree on HTG.  My derby pick no matter what happens in SA Derby.  I went back and watched that replay.  The reburst was awesome when Tiz closed next to him.  The son of Ghostzapper will put Coldcut's "trend" to bed of BC Classic Winning sires never siring a KD winner.  At least this will be one thing we won't have to hear about anymore.  Actually I hope they walk the dog for some crazy reason in the SA Derby and there is no pace to close into.  Would put him at huge odds in Kentucky.


04 Apr 2013 11:32 AM
1:08 and change

FA: You can't be serious about AK?  POE walked the dog in that last race and had first run on him.  JV buried his chances in the BC Mile.  Love JV but not a turf rider.

04 Apr 2013 11:33 AM
Forbidden Apple

The question is, can Transparent even win today?

04 Apr 2013 11:37 AM
1:08 and change

FA:  got a feeling AK was an upgrade going into Dubai and POE would be downgrade next race.

04 Apr 2013 11:38 AM

Unbridled won the 1990 BC Classic and sired 1996 KY Derby winner Grindstone in his first crop. Grindstone was one of Unbridled's first foals with a foaling date of January 23, 1993.

04 Apr 2013 11:53 AM
Forbidden Apple

Point of Entry should never be a downgrade. I'm not from the KY Cheap Talker school of horses can not run more than two big races in a row. Darley's move on Animal Kingdom is a counter move to Stronach's purchases of Einstein and Point of Entry. Einstein is far more accomplished than Animal Kingdom, yet no respect. Look, Animal Kingdom is a good horse on poly and turf. I'm not convinced that he is equally as good on dirt. Either way it does not matter since his connections have abandoned the United States racing circuits. All he ever had to do to get his hype was win the KY Derby, and he accomplished that. There is no denying that Wise Dan and Point of Entry are superior race horses.

On another topic, the speed should be flowing in abundance in the S.A. Derby. Hear the Ghost will sit another dream trip and should be keyed in all doubles and other exotics. I'm looking at exactas and doubles. Flashback has no choice from the 1 hole, he will hurry again. I find it very interesting that Baffert has two other horses entered. Maybe his confidence in Flashback is wavering.

04 Apr 2013 11:59 AM
Rusty Weisner

I am surprised Flashback is the ML favorite (I think I saw him 8/5 vs. 5/2 for HTG, or am I imagining that?).  I was toying with the idea of being a contrarian and betting him after losing the San Felipe, but as the favorite?  No way.  I'll be all over Hear the Ghost, though I think the odds will be narrower between him and Flashback than the ML.

04 Apr 2013 11:59 AM
Forbidden Apple

1:08 and change,

The move that Here the Ghost made in the San Felipe is a true sign of his fitness and endurance.

04 Apr 2013 12:06 PM
Forbidden Apple


9/5 morning line on Flashback. We should get a decent price on Hear the Ghost after KY Cheap Talker bets his trailer on Flashback. Have you made your hotel reservations for this summer yet?


One day I will make the trip and hike up Blue Mountain and Ganja Mountain. When is the last time you were in Jamaica?

I am 100% interested in what Pete Denk has to say regarding Itsmyluckyday going forward.

04 Apr 2013 12:11 PM

Forbidden Apple,

He now more focused so I think the blinker can come off.

He should stay on a more

04 Apr 2013 1:10 PM
Rusty Weisner

I don't know what to do with the Wood, with the top two, specifically.  

I like Always in a Tiz as a longshot angle, but it has to really be a longshot.  This horse beat Revolutionary in his maiden, chased Vyjack in the slop, and was close in the Smarty Jones behind WTC and Texas Bling.  The Southwest performance in the slop will insure good odds, and the trainer and layoff will push them out further.  He gets blinkers, something I like to bet.  I think Mr. Palmer will offer good odds, too.  I would hold six maiden tries against a horse, but not one in Mott's hands.  And bettors will hate him coming out of a race at Laurel.

I'm throwing out the 1,3,9 (don't like his highest fig in a four-horse field),10.

I don't like Elnaawi or Normandy Invasion to win.

These two longshots are the ones I "like", though not really on top.  Not sure how to play it.

Weather will be nice on both coasts Saturday.

04 Apr 2013 1:23 PM
Rusty Weisner

Forbidden Apple,

Were you surprised Baffert has Super99 here?  I am.  I bet him and thought he ran okay against a bad bias in the Rebel, but not okay enough to try a longer distance against probably tougher competition.  I see nothing promising about Power Broker, either.

04 Apr 2013 1:28 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Forbidden -

How about you step up and say you were wrong - just once.

AK won the Derby (I didn't like him), he ran 2nd in the Preakness as a DG behind the upgraded Shackleford.  According to some,  he ran 2nd behind the two best turf horses on the planet, then put the Dubai Classic field to bed.

Yes, AK was an upgrade going into Dubai having been behind the winner of an Extreme Race for Speed.  That said,  POE is not a DG from the race as he was not a w-w winner of the event.  The only horses deserving of downgrades out of speed favoring races is the pace setter or those lapped on the pacesetter.

Let's keep in mind that you posted that Flashback would have them all 'running for 2nd' prior to the San Vincente.  In fact, there are at least two references to him destroying the field.

04 Apr 2013 1:32 PM
Plod Boy Phil

correction:  San Felipe,  not San Vincente

04 Apr 2013 1:33 PM
1:08 and change



I think Flash and Powerbroker actually take back in here.  In fact I think a bunch will take back fearing the dual that could take place if they all go.  Goldy and Sup 99 on lead but don't think it will be as hot as the past few races (At least I hope not).  I'm playing Power Broker here.  Tossing the Juvenile because of lasix issue and the track was just plain weird that day.  Think he will get first run and win.  Layoff doesn't bother me with Baffert.  Should be nice odds and he has run fast enough to win this.

04 Apr 2013 1:55 PM
1:08 and change


Vyjack and Mr Palmer is all you need in the Wood.  Throw in Verrazano on spread tickets in case he really is a FREAK.  By the way, no offense, but who names a horse after a bridge?

04 Apr 2013 1:59 PM
Rusty Weisner

Plod Boy Phil,

I think Flashback had them all "running for 2nd" in the Robert Lewis.  

04 Apr 2013 2:17 PM
1:08 and change


Who's better horse in your opinion? Animal Kingdom or Drosselmeyer?

04 Apr 2013 2:25 PM
Rusty Weisner


I'm curious, why do you like Mr. Palmer, (especially seeing as Coldfacts likes him)?

I like the name Verrazano.  He was an explorer before he was a bridge.  He sure is a lot better than Amerigo Vespucci.  

Pletcher won this with Gemologist last year.  Vyjack is a meaner sort than what he faced in Alpha, though.  They're very different and I can't pick between them and I don't like trying to pick a winner based just on which one has the better odds.  I'll probably play both over the longshot I like better (I will go solely for odds underneath, because the underneath spots I consider more random).

04 Apr 2013 2:36 PM
Plod Boy Phil



04 Apr 2013 2:38 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Rusty -

Revision:  He may have had that opinion in the RBL,  but was clearly all over The Flash in the SF. Fortunately, he had my downgraded exacta to use as a smokescreen.

All anyone can ask is that bloggers step up and accept both good and bad opinions.  Itsmyluckyday went from 'all systems go' to 'just prepping' somewhere between the 1/4 pole and the wire.

04 Apr 2013 2:50 PM
Rusty Weisner

The pace setup should be good, but I think there's a chance Tiz a Minister won't hit the board this time.  I don't think he'll like the longer distance with that style or the stiffer competition, and he's lost his jockey.  I think it will be the same exacta as last time, and the trifecta will pay okay if Tiz a Minister doesn't get up.  I'll probably play:

HTG-Flash straight ex

HTG/Flash/? keyed trifectas

04 Apr 2013 3:06 PM
Rusty Weisner

plod boy phil,

I'm not an arbitrator of disputes.  

I thought you mixed up the San Vincente and the Robert Lewis Stevenson, or whatever it's called.  That's all.

04 Apr 2013 3:08 PM
1:08 and change


Mr Palmer closed into a dogged pace in his last.  The horses on the front end should have had plenty left and he was able to go five and seven wide to get by them.  His last race also makes him "fast enough" to compete here and win.  Plus you will probably be getting 15-1 at post time.  And I think his odds of winning are way better than that.

I do love the breeding as well (thanks coldcuts) and don't like the breeding on Normandy Invasion at all.  Think NI will be more like 3-1 at post time and that in no way is worth betting.

04 Apr 2013 3:43 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Hear the Ghost will indeed not be seen in the SA Derby.

04 Apr 2013 4:31 PM

The Santa Anita Derby just lost a great deal of luster. Hear the Ghost will miss the race due to injury: www.drf.com/.../hear-ghost-miss-santa-anita-derby

04 Apr 2013 5:27 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Oaklawn Race 8

8 Bashaar - recorded a 'Neutral or Better Win' for Flow players and bloggers on Rebel day.  Repeats in the slop today.  Use the 4 in exactas.

04 Apr 2013 5:42 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Closer Bias on Rebel Day....no.

04 Apr 2013 6:08 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Usually getting back $0.70 a length doesn't work out to very much.

04 Apr 2013 6:20 PM

ahhhh....too bad.....hear the ghost went bad........now they didnt get to see his butt kicked.....oh well....1 more contender down.......its funny, the beginners dont know whats coming......the unveiling..........

04 Apr 2013 8:00 PM

What the heck are people talking about? you really think the fl. derby was that bad? Some idiot said weak field? bad time? came home slow?  These are not even my horses, but WISE UP people! The track was very slow........some idiot said itsmyluckyday went 14 l slower........come on, people......97 beyer fits.....

04 Apr 2013 8:04 PM

by the way......the tiz horse in the sa derby will run bad........stay away......

04 Apr 2013 8:05 PM

went to the window , this weekend....bet tup race on simulcast....bet my horse, and teller asked if i can beat the mike chambers even money horse....i said "yes i can beat him"......the teller responded..."if anyone can beat him, YOU can"...........................................respect..........btw chambers got 2nd........just another winner.....sunday was fun.....

04 Apr 2013 8:10 PM

who'd he beat? youre luck htg got injured.....everyone got a bad trip.....he cant go 10f........he only has 4 outs........hes grey........you didnt know he was THAT GOOD!......you just got lucky.......he can only do that on sa strip.......how many derbys has g, gomez won.? ..........any more excuses that i missed?

04 Apr 2013 8:14 PM
Plod Boy Phil


I'm not even a final time fig guy and in discussing the Fla Derby on Sunday with a fellow expert, I said that Orb likely paired the Beyer.  From that I guessed DoJ ran a 115...but that's another story entirely.

Your TuP story sounds like something out of 'Let It Ride'.  

04 Apr 2013 8:22 PM
Plod Boy Phil


Hate to say it,  but Rusty beat you to the punch on the Tiz claimer in the SAD running worse.

04 Apr 2013 8:27 PM

need this on the record.....vyjack wont win derby....so people think i hate him....i dont think he will run bad in wood........and people posting he will fly from far back......dude, he will be close to the pace.......and running that so so race only helped itsmyluckyday..........i wont say he for sure will run bad next out......just need it on record....

04 Apr 2013 8:34 PM
Plod Boy Phil


Can't say I disagree about Vyjack and the Derby - no matter here as I have no future on him.  I do expect him to run his lifetime best on Saturday, and yes, I agree that he will be much more forwardly placed in the Wood.

04 Apr 2013 8:50 PM
Mary Zinke

KY, You can see the comment that caught my attention. Good thing they wanted a race horse with a longer than average career, otherwise they wouldn't have cut a Ghostzapper colt that had won its debut. I'm not into streaks that much. Eventually, most of my favorites "get their butts kicked."  I wonder if you'd direct your comments to the team of Hear The Ghost. I doubt they'd have like greetings for your animals.  I don't really care about your other personal fb-bh hybrid/self-therapy comments.  

04 Apr 2013 9:27 PM
1:08 and change


Here's to Bashaaring our coconuts together!  Sucks when they run off and win by 13 like that.  Takes all the enjoyment and suspense out of cashing that ticket.

04 Apr 2013 9:37 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Forbidden Apple

   Well that opens it up for one of the scrubs to win the SA Derby now, but it's likely to be Flashback winning, not exactly a scrub but you know what I mean.

04 Apr 2013 9:55 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Most of the suspense was over at the 6f pole - they zipped and he was sitting on a top effort.  That's usually a good combination for us.

Keeneland tomorrow.

04 Apr 2013 9:56 PM

Just another slice of cheese for the whine....someone please, please give some attention to KY.  Seems PBP, Mary and 1:08's attention are not enough...does anyone else not care about what KY has to say ?  Yes, it's all BS but he's here all day, that counts for something right ?  I can't be the only one here that thinks he's a loser am I ?  Don't worry about becoming his buddy buddy if you give him recognition, he'll rip you a new one after you give him some credit...but that's just how he is.

I almost feel bad for him begging for the last 2 days now to get credit or recognition from this blog...okay, I'm actually laughing hard.  It is sad he needs recognition so bad, he's making up stories...pathetic.

04 Apr 2013 10:00 PM
1:08 and change

Vet:  Pick a card.  Sat AQU, Sat SA, or tomorrow at Keeneland?  I'm in for the head to head.

04 Apr 2013 10:19 PM

mary....i didnt say anything bad...the horse is fine.....he wasnt gonna win...im a little dissapointed hes hurt.....because the grey wont get his due..........why you mad? wanted to beat him....isnt that good sportsmanship? I was the one who liked the horse remember? youre cute when youre mad....

04 Apr 2013 11:54 PM

108....2 cards....you pick.....one point most winners, one point most money......wp 2 dollars....every race.......so we post at...what time?   11pm eastern time to 1105 eastern....5 min window....loser leaves blog for 1 day.....banned.... or you pick one...ill pick 1 track......let me know......

05 Apr 2013 12:08 AM

hey....i think i figured out mary was a little sensitive because your friend is part owner or something like that.........am i right?.....not my fault.....good races hurt horses......

05 Apr 2013 12:20 AM

Jay JAY's handicapping method is gaining followers...............excerpt from haskins blog .....

After several flips of the coin, finally decided to make him No. 1 slightly over Orb, mainly because he was my last No. 1 (Feb. 26) before Itsmyluckyday, and he won having to travel and run over a new track and beating a deeper field. You have to admire his determination and will to win and his ability to beat you in many ways. He’s already shown in his maiden win he can blow you away, and in the Withers and Louisiana Derby he showed he can beat you from anywhere – close up or far back -- and he can bull his way between horses or go seven wide, as he did around the entire far turn in the Louisiana Derby. He looked to be in danger when Mylute came charging up on his outside, but dug in and repelled the challenge and then galloped out well clear of the field. Considering he hadn’t run in eight weeks, this was an excellent Derby prep. It must be noted, however, the time did not compare too well with the other big races on the card and his 93 Beyer was well below the others. But he’s already run a 102 Beyer and is heading back towards that, and I don’t think this colt has gotten a chance to show his very best. That could come on May 4.


05 Apr 2013 12:26 AM

Hahaha, that's a lot more than "jj doesn't read form"... looks like I hit a nerve, hope I didn't make you cry ....

I'm running out of cheese for your whine.  It's okay, looks like things are looking up for you, 1:08 is going to go head with you this weekend after he bashed coconuts with PBP today.

Pick a winner already...you can't keep riding other people's winners and taking credit for them.  You took credit for Mary's and PBP's picks after they won lol, really sad.  You won't post your picks because it shows how bad of a handicapper you are.

05 Apr 2013 1:10 AM
Mary Zinke

No. Wrong KY. I'm not sensitive in the way you are suggesting and no, I don't know the owners of Hear The Ghost. Anything further you have to say in instructing anyone about their race horse should be directed personally to those parties, if you think they require your advice.  

05 Apr 2013 1:18 AM
Mike Relva

Forbidden Apple

Please say you wren't serious regarding AK. Can't even put into words how absurd that sounds.

05 Apr 2013 1:26 AM
Mike Relva

1:08 and change

Are you slow? Your last comments directed at me makes zero sense regarding AK. Only correct point is my dislike for Barry. Was glad he won. Why don't you keep it real?

05 Apr 2013 1:33 AM
Matthew W

Flashback should run big Sat, and It's good to see Golden Eagle back in the big dance! I like their horse, Storm Fighter, and they've thrown some furlongs into him, good works, I can see him laying mid pack, he' moving way up in class, I think he may be a nice one, I'll box Storm Fighter with Flashback....The Wood Memorial has the look of that rare prep, featuring three good ones---I remember the year, was it 1991? When it was Dinard by 3/4 Best Pal by 3/4 Sea Cadet in 3rd, This years Wood has that look! ....I loveNormandy Invasion! He needs to run big, I think he will! ....Not sure why Talamo not on Flashy Way in the Providencia at Santa Anita, but I love her, and think she's very live Sat...and race 10 Points Offthebench looks way live, too! That is a singleton, and he may fetch 5-2 in that field...

05 Apr 2013 1:42 AM


This colt was not running to his pedigree. Lasix is added and he come alive. He is now wins a race by 10L.

For those who believe this race day medication does not impact performance - Behold Bashaar!

Freedom Child will be first time Lasix in the Wood. Likewise his stable mate

In his 2nd start he gave the eventual FOY & FL Derby Orb all he could handle before being beaten by 2L. Finishing behind him was race favorite and eventual Withers & LA Derby winner Revolutionary.  Both Orb & Revolutionary entered that MSW with more maturity and experience.

Can Lasix improved this Ridgling produced from a Deputy minister mare by one and half second? If it can he must be an excellent exotic horse.

His stable mate needs to improve 4 seconds to figure. Can Lasix  do that?

I have nothing but respect for Deputy Minister mares. Why not? They have given us Curlin, Rags To Riches, Jazil, Sarava, To Honor and Serve, Tapizsr and many other top class horses.

Beware of May foals that show ability early. Elnaawi/Freedom Child are May foals.

05 Apr 2013 7:00 AM

The Darley colt Bernardini finished 4th on debut in a MSW. He returned to break his maiden by 9-10L. He was subsequently entered in a G3 stakes and won handily. Did he belong in a G3 Stakes off just an impressive MSW victory?

Triple Crown winner Sir Barton lost all six starts as a 2YO prompting his owner to sell him. He made his 3YO debut while still a maiden in the Kentucky Derby. He was supposed to be a rabbit for his stalemate. He went to the front and was never caught.  He is still the only TC winner whose first three victories came in the Triple Crown races.  Did this six time loosing maiden belong in the Kentucky Derby?

Revolutionary was an impressive winner of a MSW in his 4th start. He was subsequently entered in the G3 Withers and came away with a troubled victory.

Did he belong in a G3 stakes?

There are those who believe that they are able to determine which horses belong in graded races and which do not. History is there as an indicator that there are no rules governing who belongs and who do not.

The first Triple Crown winner is a stark reminder.

05 Apr 2013 7:32 AM
1:08 and change


Tomorrow's cards at Santa Anita and Aqueduct.

Post at 11AM Eastern.


I do apologize for whatever post it was you were referring to.  I think I was ten deep at that point in the night.  Seriously, I think you're probably a good guy and appreciate the work you do with horses.  No hard feelings man.  And I will continue to give to Old Friends even after your comments.  LOL.  

05 Apr 2013 9:30 AM
Forbidden Apple

1:08 and change,

I would take Animal Kingdom over Drosselmeyer.

Why are people so taken back by my comments? I think it's true that Wise Dan and Point of Entry beat Animal Kingdom.

KY Cheap Talker,

The only IDIOT on this blog is you. How could anyone respect an elderly guy behind his computer who feels joy when a horse gets injured. Good luck with your 1/1 favorite Flashback.

Dr. Drunkinbum

Yes the S.A. Derby just became much easier for Flashback. I'll get back to you with my upset pick.

05 Apr 2013 9:51 AM
1:08 and change

FA:  You pass the exam.  LOL.  

05 Apr 2013 10:01 AM
1:08 and change


I think it's more the tone towards AK.  There's just not that much separating how great all three horses are.

05 Apr 2013 10:02 AM
Rusty Weisner

That's really too bad about Hear the Ghost.  I thought this was the horse with the most potential upside at this point.  I have a feeling I won't have a single for the Derby this year.  Last year I had a logical one in Bodemeister.

The SA Derby is not appetizing to me.  As much as the jockey switch is a positive sign for Flashback, he didn't improve in his last race, and I'd have to be betting on improvement to bet him, and at the price it's not worth it.

I think Tiz a Minister is going to take a lot of money as the remaining off-the-pace alternative to Hear the Ghost and I consider him a bad bet in that regard, but that doesn't leave me with any good ideas for bets.

05 Apr 2013 10:05 AM
1:08 and change


Power Broker.  Vet, there is an early pick from me.  You can have the flash.

05 Apr 2013 10:15 AM
Forbidden Apple

I think the recent maiden breaker Storm Fighter deserves a long look.

05 Apr 2013 10:18 AM
Rusty Weisner

I don't like Power Broker at all here after a half a year layoff and coming out of the BC that seems to have been a negative indicator for all the horses that ran there.  He can't really be meant for the Derby, can he?  Baffert seems to throw horses in deep water, but is he running him with an eye to a race later in the TC series?  Any ideas, California people?  Whatever the case, it's never a good sign when you try to crawl into a trainer's head to find a reason for betting a horse.

I absolutely refuse to consider him off 5 months; let him beat me.  

On the other hand, I should hate Super99 at the longer distance coming out of a race where he tired, but I consider him an "upgrade" off an unkind surface for speed and he's bounced right out of the race with sharp works.  I might put him underneath.  6-1 is not very good, but I think he'll be longer.

05 Apr 2013 10:18 AM
Rusty Weisner

1:08 and change,

That's bold.  I like it.  The boldness, that is.

05 Apr 2013 10:22 AM
Rusty Weisner

Forbidden Apple,

Flashback won't be as long as even money.  4/5 at the most.

05 Apr 2013 10:25 AM
Rusty Weisner

This is comparable lineup to the San Felipe and Flashback beat all of them even after a testing pace.  Some of them have pedigrees that are questioned, not Flashback.  

Someone give me a plausible alternative.  I don't like Power Broker or Tiz a Minister or Super99 on top. Goldencents could be a play second back, but his pedigree is questioned; and why would I prefer him to Flashback?

Forbidden Apple -- you must be thinking of one of the real outsiders.  Let me guess -- Summer Exclusive?

I might try a DD or a Pick 3, by the way, though I don't usually play Santa Anita.

05 Apr 2013 10:56 AM
Rusty Weisner

I like Always in a Tiz and Mr. Palmer as longshots underneath in the Wood, and I have a third I hadn't noticed, Freedom Child.  This horse shouldn't be 30-1.  He ran a close 2nd to Orb last fall and is getting 1st time Lasix.  Post is an obstacle to winning.

I hate to say it, but I prefer Verrazano to Vyjack.  I think the Gotham was a mess that flattered Vyjack's closing rush.  Verrazano has run faster, and I give him points for overcoming a bobbled start on a strange track.  Plus I'm a snob and a great consumer of chalk and conventional wisdom.  But the disparity of 4/5 and 4-1 seems too much.  I would have thought 6/5 or 7/5 and 2-1 or 5/2, outside.

I think Elnaawi will be a "wise-guy" pick.  I don't like him. McLaughlin's Alpha was better, and he didn't win this race.

I don't know how to weigh the fact that neither of the top two need this race to get into the Derby.  I'm inclined to ignore that fact, because it would be trying to crawl into the heads of the trainers.  Anyone have an opinion?

05 Apr 2013 11:23 AM
Rusty Weisner

Forbidden Apple,

Storm Fighter was my second guess.  The works make him interesting.  Thanks.  I'll take it as a tip.

05 Apr 2013 11:33 AM
Mike Relva

1:08 and change

Usually it takes alot to impress me,I'm impressed. Thank you.

05 Apr 2013 11:57 AM
Mike Relva

Forbidden Apple

Why do you hate this person so much?

05 Apr 2013 11:58 AM
Plod Boy Phil

FYI - There is a Live Blog getting started here at BH at Noon, ET.


05 Apr 2013 12:01 PM
Mike Relva

I like Vyjack or Storm Fighter for the win. Probably Vyjack

05 Apr 2013 12:05 PM

SA Derby : If SA shows even a small hint of a speed bias, I'm putting more money on S99 on top.  I'll also use Summer Exclusive as my longshot with Goldencents and Flashback on the bottom.

Wood : NI with Vyjack on top of Verrazano, Mr. Palmer and Go Get the Basil.  The latter is intriguing to me, liked his 2nd in his last race, he was closing fast in the last 20 yards although it was on the inner track.  If he runs a similar race in the Wood, he might just get a piece at ML of 30-1.  I'd like to see him go off at about 60-1 hehe.

05 Apr 2013 12:27 PM

On the other hand, GGtB could turn out to be another Street Life who ran like a monster on the inner track but turned out to be a turtle on the main track.  I'll still throw him in just in case... don't see any other longshots having better chances to hit the board.

05 Apr 2013 1:04 PM
Rusty Weisner


I didn't like Go Get the Basil because his last race, where his figure was conspicuously his highest, came in a field of four.  And he's got an outside post.  But that's why they're longshots.  

05 Apr 2013 1:26 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Of course, Street Life was not a NY bred nor did not break his maiden in a sMC50k race.  He also won the 9f Curlin at Saratoga and ran 3rd in the Peter Pan at Belmont. Each do have 4 legs and a tail.

The horse that beat GGtB was also a Mc winner.  There were 4 horses in the race and one was 17-1 and eased.

05 Apr 2013 1:30 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Forbidden Apple

   I'm not seeing anyone other than Flashback, Tiz A Minister, or Power Broker. But that's just me. I don't happen to like the speed horses, or any longshots. I was going to key HTG for exotics, now I doubt if I'll bet SA. Elnaawi in the Wood, the toughest prep of all.

05 Apr 2013 1:35 PM

Rusty : I never have and never will go with the Beyer figures.

05 Apr 2013 1:47 PM

PBP : Who's your pick in the Wood and the SA Derby ?

I don't get why people have this urge to pick apart people's picks.  If I needed help, I would actually post "I need help analyzing a race" or I would specifically ask about the horse I'm about to bet.  It's my money I'm gambling, just wondering why people do that instead of actually posting their picks.  I thought this blog is about unlocking winners...it's not "Unlocking who won't win..."  lol.  There's two of them in here that likes to put their "expert analysis" on why horses won't win...

05 Apr 2013 1:57 PM
Rusty Weisner

Plod Boy Phil,

I saw you gave a pick on the live thread:  Scarlet Strike in SA8.  I like it.  All the other contenders come out of the same race.  Take the class drop vs. the other race.  The one I like from the other race would be Flashy Ways.

In SA10 there's a horse I saw that I wished I would have been around to bet his last out:  Oliver's Tale.  I like the angle of horses with an owner/trainer and a small stable coming off a layoff.  But the secret's out now.

05 Apr 2013 2:11 PM
Plod Boy Phil

JayJay -

You post an opinion.  Where in the rules does it say that responding is not allowed?  This is a handicapping Blog after all. The comparison of GGtB to Street Life, was not only provided you an 'out' when he runs up the track, but was just silly.

As I posted here three days after the Gotham,  Vyjack recorded a 'vs Plod Win' and would be a bet back.  Thus,  my 'pick' was posted weeks ago.  I also put it on the Live Blog earlier today.  I expect a lifetime best from him and that he'll likely do it from a much more forwardly placed position that in the Gotham.

We have no upgrades in the SAD,  thus, it is not a race I will wager on.  

I made a similar point regarding the chances of Pick of the Litter in the Fla Derby.  Big figs earned against weak competition are unlikely to be replicated when facing significantly better and larger fields.  

05 Apr 2013 2:14 PM
Rusty Weisner


That Beyer fig is the only thing flattering his PP.  Hey, it's a longshot and these NY runners sneak in there (someone on the live thread put a premium on the NY circuit because of the purse sizes).  I offered the observation in a friendly spirit.  I welcome picks that sow doubt and sap my confidence!  

By the way, my longshot for this race is going to be Always in a Tiz: following your lead on WTC.

05 Apr 2013 2:15 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Rusty -

I'm glad you approve.

The horses I've posted here before the respective races since March 1 have been nothing short of brilliant. They've gone 8-19 with a win ROI of $6.26.  This includes two 'impossible' horses I mentioned in passing two weekends ago and the 33-1 Madris that got beat by a dirty lip.

If anyone here routinely 'unlocks winners',  it's me.

05 Apr 2013 2:22 PM
Rusty Weisner

Plod Boy Phil,

I only tend to notice the picks on races I'm also betting on, and I don't bet on many. If you're having good picks and good luck I'm all eyes and ears.  The couple I remember from races I was also betting on were good ones, like that Centre Court a couple weeks ago.  Keep the ascerbic comments coming, too.  The ones about that Go Get the Basil were pretty funny.  

05 Apr 2013 2:54 PM
Rusty Weisner

I like this Oliver's Tale in SA10.  He dueled the favorite into defeat last out, and that horse came back to win.

The others here I'll consider are 4, 12.

05 Apr 2013 3:09 PM
Plod Boy Phil

I do hate it when Upgrade is 'neutral'.  There was one time when Upgrade won, as a downgrade.  Now that hurt !

05 Apr 2013 3:15 PM
Forbidden Apple


What Person?


Flashback is going to be tough to run down. Tiz a Minister is the likely closer, he looks good. Don't go crazy with Storm Fighter, he is 20-1 for a reason. It would be a small miracle if he finished first or second. Going from a maiden race to winners is tough enough. He's going from maidens to a Grade I, very difficult to pull off.

05 Apr 2013 3:23 PM
Rusty Weisner

Forbidden Apple,

I'm not doing anything vertical in the SA Derby so I'm not doing anything with your pick.  I don't like Tiz a Minister.  He should be the second favorite -- a lot of money will be going to him as a substitute for Hear the Ghost off the pace.  He had a great setup last time and didn't beat Flashback, who got in a mess and still "won", if you exclude Hear the Ghost, who is, in fact, excluded in this race.  I don't think the extra half furlong helps Tiz A M.

I'm going to play DD and P3 R8-10 with Flashback singled.  

I haven't heard a plausible alternative.  I don't get why a lot of people like Power Broker.  I just don't get it.

R8 P3:



DD 8-9:



R8 ex box 6,8=$4

05 Apr 2013 3:51 PM
Forbidden Apple


Race 8 Gulf. #6 Carnival Court

The works are sharp and she's a 1/2 to Royal Delta. Trainer not known to win first time out, maybe not today.

Race 9 Keeneland #3 Up With the Birds

First race of the year was sharp At F.G., this guy will be flying late. Ex. box with Fire Guard.

05 Apr 2013 3:52 PM
Rusty Weisner

I pass on the Wood.  Even on my longshot.  I don't do show/place bets.

05 Apr 2013 4:13 PM
Rusty Weisner

Forbidden Apple,

Looked at the weather and scratches at Gulstream?

Reminder:  fair weather in NY and CA tomorrow.

05 Apr 2013 4:18 PM
Rusty Weisner

Forbidden Apple,

Pete Denk still likes Itsmyluckyday, by the way.

05 Apr 2013 4:29 PM

you guys better get of tiz.....

05 Apr 2013 4:51 PM


05 Apr 2013 4:52 PM
Plod Boy Phil

FA -

Nice run by your horse in the Trans

05 Apr 2013 5:17 PM

108....can you post at 11pm eastern tonight?...im not home in morn....and if a horse scr. we pick any random race during day......good luck! hope you beat me!

05 Apr 2013 6:20 PM

PBP : I seem to recall 1:08 saying that just because a horse is an upgrade, it doesn't mean it's your pick, that people still have to handicap.  I asked you directly to confirm it but I never saw a response, could be i missed it though.  If you say that whenever you post a horse here that's an upgrade or whatever else term you use to tell your users it's a good bet, that you yourself will be betting the horse then that settles it.

I don't need excuses about my picks here, unlike you, I don't spend my whole day in here trying to get credit for handicapping.  I'm quite happy with how I play my money.  I don't really care what you or anyone else thinks about my picks lol.  I don't post my picks here to tell people to bet them, if they bet my picks, then that's their decision, not mine.  I don't like telling people how to bet their money.  Who really cares about "outs" on their picks ???  I mean, seriously...

I'm slightly curious what you would do if you win the "Master of the blog" title...it's neck and neck, very very close between you and KY lol.  That must be a big accomplishment if you beat KY for the master of the blog title...

05 Apr 2013 6:43 PM

I took a shot at that 7M rainbow, missed the 3rd leg on that 7..  was going to end on the 1, 6 and 14.

Rusty : I also don't go by the Racing Form, I watch previous races or for regular races, I play the odds.   What angle do you use to handicap ?  If you're relying on people's thoughts on horses, races, all you're doing is confusing yourself and sometimes that can cost you money as other people's comments can stir you away from your original picks.   But...tha'ts just my opinion.  

I read people's opinions here, Pete, Mary Z, Dr. D (mostly the other blog), Coldfacts, Matthew.  Folks that actually do handicapping and I check their picks to see if it's a horse I want to bet on, at the end of the day I still decide who to put my money on.

But enough of that... looking forward to the races tomorrow.  Good luck to all playing with real money tomorrow !

05 Apr 2013 6:58 PM

And when JAY JAY goes golfing....he uses a stick.....and when he plays baseball.....he uses a stick..........when he goes fishing.....he uses a stick..............and when he bends over...........

05 Apr 2013 7:19 PM

PLOD.....he doesnt care about his picks......doesnt care what people think........but posts winning pics on facebook?    What a nerd! he gives you no credit............im thinking he might not subscribe........i just get that feeling......its not really clear.....

05 Apr 2013 7:24 PM
Plod Boy Phil

JayJay -

The horses I post here are upgrades that I am betting. As I've stated many times before, my knowledge base in this game far exceeds just Flow,  but it is that methodology by which I narrow down potentially playable horses.

I'd have had the same response no matter who posted support of BBtG -it had nothing to do with you personally. I do wonder why you felt the need to make such a poor analogy to a horse that is so much more talented and accomplished than BtG ever will be.

There are longshots and there are bettable horses that the public overlooks - in my eyes they are two very different things.  Again, I have nothing to gain by knocking a 40-1 shot other than to make a handicapping point, which, as it turns out,  is the same point I stressed about PotL.

I suppose I could have let the comments about 'unlocking losers',  not winners,  go unchallenged, but in my case it's far from being true.  There are few ways to provide support for any method aside from selecting winners using that method. Those capable of assembling winning 'Pick Gimmicks' at low cost should certainly be commended.  However the challenge of providing single selections over an extended period that produce flat bet win profits relies on unique skill set of it's own.

Good luck with your plays this weekend.

05 Apr 2013 7:38 PM
Plod Boy Phil

JayJay -

I am curious, how mcuh time a week do you spend watching replays ?  No agenda here, just a question.

05 Apr 2013 7:40 PM

Here we go again with the credit lol...seriously dude, you need a life.  What would someone giving you credit on a blog do for you ?   I'll give you credit but just this once, you were right about Jaycito lol.  Happy now ??

And here I thought 1:08 finally picked a horse by himself, turns out Vyjack has always been the Flow's pick for the Wood.

05 Apr 2013 7:54 PM

PBP : I don't spend much time watching replays, I only watch replays of horses I'm looking at to play.  I'd say probably an hour at the most per week.

05 Apr 2013 7:57 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Thanks  -

Do not really see the need to antagonize :68, other than to instigate something.  

Lots of races to discuss if there's to type.

05 Apr 2013 8:04 PM
Plod Boy Phil

VET - FYI, I got a message to :68 about the 11pm ET contest posting. Should be fun as a spectator sport.

05 Apr 2013 8:06 PM
Rusty Weisner


The point I made about the Beyer of that horse was that that was the only thing standing out in its favor...and I deprecated that Beyer!

I don't play the odds, really, though I'll lay off if the odds are really lousy (I don't like 4/5 on Verrazano). I consequently end up with a lot of chalk.  Probably two thirds of the time I have the favorite.  The Wood is a good example.  I was very close to pulling the trigger on Verrazano.  I like him a shade better than Vyjack, don't like others enough, and if I like, I ignore the odds.  The odds really shouldn't matter if you think a horse is going to win.  I'm not picking the Wood, though, because I feel like I don't really know enough about the two main contenders and I'd be picking Verrazano partly for hype.  I'm taking Flashback, though, for all the reasons I described above. I don't see the alternative, not even in a multi-race bet.

When I do go for odds sometimes is underneath -- where I think things are more random -- or in a multi-race bet where I don't like the favorite(s).  I think we're probably the same in that regard.  But in singling a multi-race bet I totally disregard the odds if I think the horse is a legitimate favorite.

By the way, after Plod posted his ROI I took a look at mine just for my Oaklawn/Gulfstream binge from a couple weeks ago.  I posted ten singles and four won, for an ROI of $2.28 and I also went full-bore with eight horses against the two favorites in another and snagged a longshot.  If someone had just bet my picks to win...they'd have won...28 cents.  Unfortunately it was me doing the betting, though.

On the other hand, I'm really whiffing on the prep races.

But I feel good, getting warmed up for the big day.

05 Apr 2013 8:14 PM

PBP :  You missed the point, my comparison of BBtG and Street Life was about both running well on the inner track at Aqueduct, and then running on the main track.  Street Life didn't show any promise when he ran in the Wood.  It wasn't until later that he won the Curlin, he was dead last in the Peter Pan and got 3rd passing tired horses and placing 4th in the Belmont is not something I would consider "good", after all UR won the race.  Are you saying Street Life is an accomplished horse ?

And who's to say BBtG won't win races later on ?  Are you saying that he will never get any better ?  That he will never win a stakes race in his career ?  He actually broke his maiden race at Belmont...

And my point about my handicapping is that it's my own, I don't force my bets on anyone.  I just post it here.  There's no need to justify it, I don't look for anyone to justify their picks because everyone has their own way of handicapping and it goes well beyond your approach at handicapping which is using your own methodology.  You win some and you lose some.  The picks where you lose, you don't need to defend it, no one's asking you hence my comment about "outs", who really cares about "outs" ?  No one on this blog or on this planet is an expert handicapper.

Good luck with Vyjack tomorrow.

05 Apr 2013 8:21 PM

Plod....not much time for handicapping....did both cards in 15 mins......im too busy............horse #1 had 3rd work......49change.....they tried to slow him down....came home in 12........racing on the 1st saturday in may....go figure....might be big day...my 2 3,500 derby futures....along with the few thousand for my horses win......he will smoke them.......i get a free pass 1st out........

05 Apr 2013 8:49 PM
Plod Boy Phil

I understand that you were making a Inner/Main comparison. My point is that his failure will not have anything to do with the track the race is on. It will be with the competition he faces.  I'm no horse whisperer,  but I do know that there is a natural pecking order in all herd animals.  As with PotL, the mere presence of such dominant individuals compared to the ones he recorded his best race against,  will be enough to make him a non-factor.  Imagine if PotL had faced the same bunch he'd crushed in his MSW win again last Saturday under the same pace scenario as the Florida Derby.  Do you think he'd have completed the course as slowly as he did?

I'll willing retract the 'out' comment as being unnecessary.

BBtG could very well get better.  He did enjoy modestly favorable circumstances in his back to back win and is a 'neutral' horse for us off his last.  I feel this is the kind of placement that can only harm the horse - a horse that has run three good races for them.  Hope they enjoy the pomp and circumstances surrounding the event.  

05 Apr 2013 8:52 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Thanks re: Vyjack -

I did see you have the same horse.  I'll bet him the same as I would bet any bold upgrade, be it a Thursday claimer or a Derby Prep.  It's just a race.

05 Apr 2013 8:56 PM

Rusty : Odds does matter to me because I play for big payouts.  In fact, it's pretty much all that matters to me lol.  I try to beat the favorites all the time.  I play favorites when I play my P4 and even then I throw in a longshot in there.  I really hate spending the day at the track and going home with the same money I went with or worse, lost everything.  It's a waste of time and trust me, I've wasted a lot of weekends lol.

PBP :  Are we talking about the same :68 that encourages KY to keep bashing coldfacts because he finds it funny ?  Where's your comments to KY for not posting anything about handicapping, I guess he's allowed to because it's hilarious ?  Or is it because he doesn't bash you ?  All he does is instigate...

05 Apr 2013 9:03 PM
Plod Boy Phil


The 15 minutes....is that a long time or a short time relative to your normal process?

05 Apr 2013 9:05 PM

short....i didnt have time...doin lots of stuff.......didnt wanna cancel......so just threw it together...........108 where are ya?

05 Apr 2013 9:24 PM
Plod Boy Phil



It's all ugly stuff whether it's me, you, :68, VET, coldfacts, etc.

VET just snuck one in on me last night with his 'Flipacoinflow.com' comment.

Just going to leave it at that and work on being part of the solution and not the problem. Of course, that does not mean I will stop questioning or disagreeing with opinions and statements made here. I'm just going to try to do it w/out being an ass (I have work to be done, no doubt)

05 Apr 2013 9:54 PM

jay jay.....i critic him....he critic me.....its not personal.....108 critic of me, me of him.....no biggie........they come from a place of some kinda know, about the sport............you pick numbers....spin a wheel....roll the dice.......you HAVE NO GAME!

05 Apr 2013 9:55 PM
Plod Boy Phil


What cards are in the contest?

05 Apr 2013 10:06 PM
Plod Boy Phil

correction:  It was coinflipflow.com,  which while not his best,  did have a ring to it.

05 Apr 2013 10:11 PM

S.A. race 1 #6 art official

    race 2 #11 cherryonthecake

    race 3 #4 declassify

    race 4 #2 buckleberry grey

    race 5 #6 beholder

    race 6 #7 fed biz

    race 7 #8 jimmy creed

    race 8 #5 birdlover

    race 9 #1 Flashback

    race 10#4 pointsoffbench

    race 11 #9 russells run

AQU  race 1 #10 lovely syn

    race 2 #3 midnight taboo

    race 3 #3 ultimate empire

    race 4 #6 mywandysgirl

    race 5 #5 mineswept

    race 6 #3 do i amuse you

    race 7 #3 impatient investor

    race 8 #6 princessofsylmar

    race 9 #8 clearly now

    race 10#7 discreet dancer

    race 11#2 Normandy invasion

    race 12 #11 willy pay

good luck 108!!!!!! beat me!!!!

05 Apr 2013 10:19 PM
1:08 and change

Sorry Vet been coaching little league all night.  I will post at midnight eastern time.  Just haven't had time to get to it.  Is that ok?

05 Apr 2013 10:24 PM

PBP : Fair enough, I'll do the same.  

I pick numbers, I spin a wheel and roll the dice and have picked more winners than you have...lol.  Tell us more stories of how people at the track gives you respect, those are really funny...

05 Apr 2013 10:29 PM
Carlos in Cali

SA Derby:  Going with Flasback in a romp. Gomez to sit and pounce. Power Broker will finish a clear 2nd with TizA' and Super99 rounding-out the exotics.

Wood:  Verrazano will get his acid test here for sure. He's Good though, I'll play him with NI/Vyjack and Mr. Palmer who will run Big... putting some $$ on his nose!

05 Apr 2013 11:01 PM
Mike Relva

Forbidden Apple

You know the individual you argue with all the time. lol

06 Apr 2013 1:00 AM
Mike Relva

Jay Jay

Returned late last nite. Two days in Tucson prior to flying to Calif. A fun nine days. Good luck this on your selections.

06 Apr 2013 1:03 AM
1:08 and change



R1: 8-Keep Bustin

R2: 3-Midnight Taboo

R3: 8-Sneaky Freud

R4: 6-My Wandys Girl

R5: 11-Big City Boy

R6: 10-Tail Risk

R7: 1-Danceteria

R8: 1-Walkwithapurpose

R9: 2-Maleeh

R10: 1-Saturdays Charm

R11: 5-Vyjack

R12: 8-Elusive Story

Good luck man!  I'll post SA in the AM.  Long day..........

06 Apr 2013 1:39 AM

4/6/13, Aqueduct, R-11, Wood Memorial, grade 1,dirt, 1 1/8 m:

#8-Verrazano- you can have a V-8

#3-Quinzieme Monarque- 1st time lasix, don't leave off

#5 Vyjack- gets hi-jacked at home

#4-Elnaawi- spelled backwards is iwaanle

06 Apr 2013 3:02 AM

4/6/13, Santa Anita, R-9, The Santa Anita Derby, Grade-1, dirt, 1 1/8 mile:

#7 Summer Exclusive- probably the best horse in the race, don't under estimate

#9 Dirty Swagg- completes nice exacta

#3 Power Broker- here he comes!

#8 Storm Fighter- Stevens believes

06 Apr 2013 3:22 AM


Mild alcoholism, with 70% chance of poor decisions and impaired judgement, increasing chance of regret and hangover for sunday......

06 Apr 2013 8:17 AM
1:08 and change



R1-2 Brave Act

R2-9 Rock U Up

R3-4 Declassify

R4-6 Joelito

R5-4 50shadesofhay

R6-1 Battle Force

R7-8 Jimmy Creed

R8-6 Scarlet Strike

R9-3 Power Broker

R10-12 Gonna Fly Now

R11-3 Square Dancer

Sorry for the delay but I had to watch a lot of video.  I was doing a head to booger size analysis crossed against hock patterns.  Good luck today all!

06 Apr 2013 8:35 AM
Plod Boy Phil


I'm usually not one for laughing in the morning.....well done.

06 Apr 2013 8:56 AM
Forbidden Apple

Mike Relva,

Do I really have to answer that question? It should be crystal clear why I dislike this creepy individual. I thought you were going to say that I hated Animal Kingdom. That's not true at all, he's a nice horse. I just prefer a few other's that beat him and deserve the same hype that he gets. The KY Derby win is what makes people gaga over him, I get it.

KY Cheap Talker,

Did you simply look for the favorites before you posted your picks? What a forking BEGINNER! you picked 7/11 morning line favorites at S.A. And you picked 8/12 morning line favorites at the Big A.

1:08 and change,

What are the rules for your head to head matchup? Any room for one more?

06 Apr 2013 9:05 AM
Forbidden Apple

On second thought, I'll leave the full card handicapping to the experts. I noticed that I have already missed the time frame. I don't want to listen to KY Cheap Talker crying for changing the time for posting. Spot plays are more my cup of tea.

06 Apr 2013 9:19 AM
Rusty Weisner


We're similar.  I don't look for my postive reinforcement with frequency.  I like it in occasional, massive doses.  

I try to catch odds in multi-race bets, and it's rare that I'm smart enough to find a single who's not the first or second favorite.  But even in the multi-race bets I worry less about the odds than about the possibility that a horse can win the race; the odds take care of themselves in those pools.  I've backed off Verrazano because of the odds today, though.  Too much can happen in a horse race and it smacked of desperation trying to throw a longshot underneath him.

But why am I lecturing you?  I suck!  But I do have flashes of insight and even brilliance.  Stitch a couple of those together consecutively on Derby day....

I watch replays as much as I can get a chance. There was a maiden I liked a couple weeks ago that "checked" according to the chart and he had actually lost five or six lengths when I saw the replay.  He won.  Strong middle moves are also more obvious in replays for me than from the chart.  I saw one of those and bet him a couple weeks ago, too.  He lost.  But by a nose!

Good luck.  I'll be out enjoying the weather today.

06 Apr 2013 9:41 AM
1:08 and change


Feel free to join.  Vet wanted 1 pt for picking a winner and then $2 win bets on all.  To me the roi is all that matters.

06 Apr 2013 10:02 AM
Forbidden Apple

ROI is important, in this case simply the # of winners should be the rule.

06 Apr 2013 10:09 AM
1:08 and change

It's two contests at once I guess.

06 Apr 2013 10:50 AM
Eddie S.

For the Santa Anita Derby- 1st- Flashback 2nd- Tiz a Minister 3rd- Goldencents.... Not betting that race, very hard to handicap. As for the Wood! This race gave me a splitting headache, but I'd have to choose Verrazano to win. He should get an easy pace up front. On the ML Verrazano was 4-5, and Vyjack 4-1.... I might bet an underlay on Vyjack. I don't like the betting oppurunities for those preps, but I have some other races I like today. The Bay Shore Stakes is 1st- Maleeh 2nd- Clearly Now 3rd- Clawback 4t- The Truth in K G.... Good luck everyone!

06 Apr 2013 10:52 AM

Taking a contrarian bet today in the Wood.  $100 to show on Normandy Invasion.  Hoping there are some bridge jumpers on Verazano and he doesn't come in the top 3.  Otherwise, I'm making pennies on the dollar.  

06 Apr 2013 11:35 AM
Forbidden Apple

Against my handicapping rules, I'll give it a try.

Big A: 1)#8 Keep Bustin 2)#9 Political Farce 3)#2 Infiltrator 4)#3 Onepointhreekarats 5)#12 Billy the Bull 6)#9 Ocala Jim 7)#10 Toy Cannon 8)#2 Close Hatches 9)#2 Maleeh 10)#4 Sahara Sky 11)#5 Vyjack 12)#5 Diamond District

Santa Anita coming in a few moments, have to go out on some errands now.

06 Apr 2013 11:48 AM
Mary Zinke

Ashland: Spring Venture, 4,11,7,8.

SA Derby: Power Broker, 3,1,4,8.

Wood Memorial: Verrazano, 8,5,4,7.

Carter: Sahara Sky, 4,5,7,

SA Oaks: Black Witch

Ruffian: Twice The Lady

Providencia: Magnificent Shirl

Potrero Grande: Camp Victory  

06 Apr 2013 12:32 PM
Mary Zinke

Carter: 4,5,7,1

06 Apr 2013 12:35 PM
Eddie S.

Mary, who do you like in the Bay Shore Stakes?

06 Apr 2013 1:15 PM

Welcome, horse racing fans, to the Santa Anita/Aqueduct Handicapping Challenge! The first race of the contest is in the record books, and here are the standings:

Ky Vet: 1 point, $4.60 w/p

1:08 and change: 0 points, $2.30 w/p

Forbidden Apple: 0 points, $2.30 w/p

I will continue posting updates throughout the day. Good luck to all!

06 Apr 2013 1:26 PM
Mary Zinke

From K to E, I didn't look at the Gazelle or Bay Shore much. I'd probably go with the chalkies, Princess of Sylmar and Clearly Now--made some nice money off of him in the Swale, but I will say that I tend to look for ones that have run well in NY for NY races. Sahara Sky is an exception today, though.

06 Apr 2013 1:28 PM
Forbidden Apple

Wow, 2 wins for KY Cheap Talker! 1/4 and 4/5, great handicapping skills on display here folks.

06 Apr 2013 1:30 PM
Plod Boy Phil

I see Saturday's Charm is a scratch in the 10th at AQ -

06 Apr 2013 1:36 PM
Eddie S.

By the way, Mary, From K to E = Rafirox on HRN. The Bay Shore looks chalky (Maleeh and Clearly Now are my top two), but Salutos Amigos,Retrieve, or Clawback could win. As for the Gazelle, call me crazy, but I'm liking Walkwithapurpose at a solid price (maybe 4 or 5-1).... 1st- Walkwithapurpsose 2nd- Princess of Sylmar 3rd- Close Hatches. Good luck!

06 Apr 2013 1:38 PM

Here are the standings after the second contest race . . .

Ky Vet: 2 points, $11.30 w/p

1:08 and change: 0 points, $9.00 w/p

Forbidden Apple: 0 points, $2.30 w/p

06 Apr 2013 1:44 PM
Forbidden Apple

Santa Anita:

1)#8 Meydan Magic 2)#3 Love My Girl 3)#3 Mr. Sexy 4)#9 Grand Giant 5)#6 Beholder 6)#1 Battle Force 7)#Jimmy Creed 8)#7 Magnificent Shirl 9)#8 Storm Fighter 10)#9 Oliver's Tale 11)#11 Bipartisan

06 Apr 2013 1:47 PM

Here are the standings after the third contest race . . .

Ky Vet: 2 points, $11.30 w/p

1:08 and change: 0 points, $13.50 w/p

Forbidden Apple: 0 points, $2.30 w/p

06 Apr 2013 2:06 PM

Here are the standings after the fourth contest race . . .

Ky Vet: 2 points, $14.00 w/p

1:08 and change: 0 points, $16.20 w/p

Forbidden Apple: 0 points, $2.30 w/p

06 Apr 2013 2:41 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Bold Play #1

AQ - Race 5


06 Apr 2013 2:57 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Got left.

06 Apr 2013 3:01 PM

-Keelerman; 1:08 did have #3 Midnight Taboo in the 2nd race, which was same pick Ky Vet had.

06 Apr 2013 3:07 PM

Good catch, Derbygal! Thank you!

Here are the corrected standings following the first five races at Aqueduct and the opener from Santa Anita . . .

Ky Vet: 2 points, $14.00 w/p

1:08 and change: 1 point, $16.20 w/p

Forbidden Apple: 0 points, $2.30 w/p

06 Apr 2013 3:26 PM
1:08 and change

Could someone please tell Kayla to start riding the horse.  Anytime now will do. LOL

06 Apr 2013 3:38 PM
Plod Boy Phil

First Kubinova,  now Kayla....sure hope it was worth the lost purse.

06 Apr 2013 3:46 PM
1:08 and change


With the scratch of Saturday's Charm in the 10th, I will change my pick to Swagger Jack #6.

06 Apr 2013 3:49 PM
Mike Relva

Forbidden Apple


06 Apr 2013 4:10 PM

Here are the standings after the first seven races at Aqueduct and the first three at Santa Anita . . .

Ky Vet: 5 points, $39.80 w/p

1:08 and change: 2 points, $21.40 w/p

Forbidden Apple: 0 points, $5.40 w/p

06 Apr 2013 4:13 PM

go figure! had the winner sa 1st race...then changed it last minute....@%#U&*^#! 9 to 1!

06 Apr 2013 4:19 PM

only other one i changed was sa race 10...i like 108s 12 horse...changed it to #4

06 Apr 2013 4:33 PM
Plod Boy Phil

We have a new leader

06 Apr 2013 4:37 PM

nice one 108.....joelito! youre good!

06 Apr 2013 4:37 PM
1:08 and change

What do they say..."BOOM!" goes the dynamite!


06 Apr 2013 4:38 PM

hes ahead in money....there is 2 things....we can draw....

06 Apr 2013 4:39 PM

like your 2 horse at aqu...r9...picked him , then switched to the 8 clearly now....

06 Apr 2013 5:05 PM
1:08 and change

Beholder.  Man, she's a nice horse.  The OAKS is going to be a hell of a race.

06 Apr 2013 5:09 PM

really? i got nailed.....zito! this is bad luck....still mad at going off the sa 1st winner.....

06 Apr 2013 5:17 PM

whos ahead in money?

06 Apr 2013 5:18 PM
Plod Boy Phil

think you are up a couple dollars VET

06 Apr 2013 5:31 PM

he picked lousy cards....too many lousy no odds races.....what ya gonna do? didnt even look at morning lines....did cards in 15 mins...

06 Apr 2013 5:37 PM
Plod Boy Phil

I think it's $49.20 to $48.20 - unofficial

06 Apr 2013 5:39 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Not any more.....

06 Apr 2013 5:39 PM

nice hit 108! ya nosed me! good contest!

06 Apr 2013 5:40 PM

Here are the standings after the first nine races at Aqueduct and the first five at Santa Anita . . .

Ky Vet: 6 points, $51.90 w/p

1:08 and change: 3 points, $48.20 w/p

Forbidden Apple: 2 points, $17.50 w/p

06 Apr 2013 5:40 PM
1:08 and change

Can I get what what!!!!!!!!

Battle FORCE!!!!!

Nice hit Apple!

06 Apr 2013 5:41 PM

i should have 9 wins! damn it!

06 Apr 2013 5:41 PM

Here are the standings after the first nine races at Aqueduct and the first six at Santa Anita . . .

Ky Vet: 6 points, $55.30 w/p

1:08 and change: 4 points, $70.60 w/p

Forbidden Apple: 3 points, $39.90 w/p

06 Apr 2013 5:44 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Stop whining VET -

06 Apr 2013 5:45 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Apple just rating behind the Zip....

06 Apr 2013 5:46 PM

wow!!!!! 108!!!!! the dynamite!!!!!!!!!!

06 Apr 2013 5:51 PM
Plod Boy Phil

SWAGGER JACK - :68,  how'd you get to that one.....

06 Apr 2013 5:52 PM

Ky Vet; your chalkier plays are starting to haunt you!!

06 Apr 2013 5:54 PM

now come my future bets.....

06 Apr 2013 5:55 PM

Nice pick Swagger Jack 1:08

06 Apr 2013 5:55 PM

no problem gal....this is fun....looks like im in trouble.....hoping for a split....

06 Apr 2013 5:57 PM

hell of a pick.....vet bows to the leader!!! in money.....

06 Apr 2013 5:59 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Koufax - We had to upgrades in the race.  The 1 Saturday harm was bold.  The 6 was a regular upgrade.  The 1 scratched.  The rest required no thinking.  Both the 2 and the 7 were downgraded out of the GPH as each were shared pacesetters (lapped on).

06 Apr 2013 6:00 PM

darn...we all on jimmy creed....watch him show speed today...

06 Apr 2013 6:03 PM

nice pick again! 108 is on fire!!!! lol

jimmy creed

06 Apr 2013 6:10 PM
1:08 and change

good call on the speed vet...best sprinter in the us now.

06 Apr 2013 6:10 PM
1:08 and change

good call on the speed vet...best sprinter in the us now.

06 Apr 2013 6:10 PM
Plod Boy Phil

The connections of Saturday Charm may be kicking themselves,  assuming all is right with the horse.  It certainly set up for his style.  

06 Apr 2013 6:13 PM
Plod Boy Phil

I failed to make it clear that the GPH was rated as an Extremely Favorable for Speed - thus downgrade the leader (and those lapped on the leader).  Upgrade closers or failed closers.

06 Apr 2013 6:15 PM

ya...108...ive been saying commatotop isnt right for 3 races...he didnt change leads today........i need normandy to get at least 2nd to make it in derby!

06 Apr 2013 6:15 PM
1:08 and change

Wood:  TRI 456/456/24567  Zano off the board.  Great race for some show betting.

06 Apr 2013 6:15 PM

score? anyone? how far behind in money? is it 7 wins to 5? or 6?

06 Apr 2013 6:17 PM

wow...hope youre right about v.....

06 Apr 2013 6:18 PM
1:08 and change

BTW...Alive to P4 with Vyjack and Palmer.  Gave it out on 4/3 with all in second leg.  Had to substitute Swagger for Saturday though.

06 Apr 2013 6:21 PM
Mike Relva

Vyjack for the win. Pletchers horse no better than third.

06 Apr 2013 6:25 PM

Here are the standings after the first ten races at Aqueduct and the first seven at Santa Anita . . .

Ky Vet: 7 points, $62.50 w/p

1:08 and change: 6 points, $121.30 w/p

Forbidden Apple: 4 points, $51.30 w/p

06 Apr 2013 6:26 PM

jesus!!!!!!!!!! if i didnt get 2nd....no derby!!!!!!!!!!!!   perfect!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  i got the horse!!!!!!!!!!!!!normandy!!!!!!!

06 Apr 2013 6:33 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Congrats VET -

Very Impressive run considering early scenario

06 Apr 2013 6:33 PM
1:08 and change

Vet:  Happy that you got NI man.  He might have a shot............But I love VYJACK in the DERBY even more.

06 Apr 2013 6:34 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Freedom Child a non-starter I think

06 Apr 2013 6:34 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Great race really -

06 Apr 2013 6:37 PM
Plod Boy Phil

"If you used Freedom Child in the P4 and P3, consider your luckier than good".

06 Apr 2013 6:40 PM

i dont care anymore...i made a pact with god to lose contest, as long as normandy got 2nd......yea! baby!  impressed the hell out of me....pace was against him...still dont know how he flew like that!

06 Apr 2013 6:41 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Scarlet Strike - another LIVE BLOG winner.

06 Apr 2013 6:43 PM

really? im there every race! 2nd again! picking great! not much i can do...

06 Apr 2013 6:44 PM

Here are the standings after the first eleven races at Aqueduct and the first eight at Santa Anita . . .

Ky Vet: 7 points, $70.90 w/p

1:08 and change: 7 points, $131.10 w/p

Forbidden Apple: 4 points, $51.30 w/p

06 Apr 2013 6:50 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Unfortunate really about Freedom Child - would likely have injected some real pace in the race.

06 Apr 2013 6:51 PM

Nice pick Phil with Scarlet Strike.

06 Apr 2013 6:53 PM
Plod Boy Phil


06 Apr 2013 6:58 PM
Plod Boy Phil

AQ - Race 12

11 Willy Pay - modest 'vs Plod Win' two back and chased the w-w winner of a Speed favoring scenario last out

06 Apr 2013 7:00 PM

are you ready for the unveiling? flash!

06 Apr 2013 7:03 PM

seriously......can i pick any better? willy nailed at wire....2nds are killing me bro.....not getting justice.....

06 Apr 2013 7:06 PM

Tough beat Phil.

06 Apr 2013 7:06 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Yeah - should have known it would be second since VET had it

06 Apr 2013 7:09 PM

Here are the standings following the last race at Aqueduct and the first eight at Santa Anita . . .

Ky Vet: 7 points, $78.50 w/p

1:08 and change: 7 points, $131.10 w/p

Forbidden Apple: 4 points, $51.30 w/p

06 Apr 2013 7:12 PM

plod...if normandy isnt an upgrade.....i dont get what is.........im stunned how good he ran down stretch...

06 Apr 2013 7:12 PM
Pedigree Ann

I hate these preps with 49+ halves and 1:13+ 3/4s. They tell you nothing about how the horses will run in the Derby, where you will, without doubt, get a pace faster than that, by a couple seconds.

That's why prices win in the Derby - these soft-prep winners encounter more competition early than they ever have before.

06 Apr 2013 7:15 PM

ill take it.....good 2nd.....that was fast race...flash ran ok...

06 Apr 2013 7:17 PM

Here are the standings following the last race at Aqueduct and the first nine at Santa Anita . . .

Ky Vet: 7 points, $81.50 w/p

1:08 and change: 7 points, $131.10 w/p

Forbidden Apple: 4 points, $51.30 w/p

06 Apr 2013 7:23 PM

youre right ped. ann.....which is why i picked normandy as my derby horse.....the derby is the worst race for close to the pace horses.....normandy best closer.....love the prep races today.....that sa derby was a good beyer......didnt wanna run too good...flash learned alot....rated...dirt kicked in face.......im happy....derby day gonna be fun....

06 Apr 2013 7:24 PM

I didn't think Doug O'Neill wanted to get shut out from going to K. Derby!!!

06 Apr 2013 7:25 PM

ok...an award for most 2nds? do you realize how my picks have ran today? there almost every time.....

06 Apr 2013 7:26 PM
Plod Boy Phil


Here's a gold painted basket full of tissues.

Fun day.

06 Apr 2013 7:32 PM

congrats 108....that was fun.....ill pick 2 tracks next time ok?  hail to the champ.....we picked great.....you had some grand slams kid!!!!

06 Apr 2013 7:45 PM

oh oh....looks like its a chop...i got ya......points off the bench......good battle!

06 Apr 2013 7:49 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Winners title not closed out yet, is it ?

06 Apr 2013 7:53 PM
1:08 and change

Good job man...one more race.  Thought my 12 was gonna get ya for sure.  

06 Apr 2013 7:54 PM

Good luck with Normandy Invasion KY VET hope he does well I will be rooting for him.

06 Apr 2013 7:55 PM

if you dont know that 22 races-8 wins 8 2nds 2 3rds......is a guy who is a pro.......then you are fooling yourselves....thats bad luck........

06 Apr 2013 8:05 PM
Plod Boy Phil


With all due respect,  WP bets on all 22 horses leaves you dead even for the day.  

I will give you credit for going 2-2 getting horses to the Derby.

06 Apr 2013 8:10 PM

at least going off the sa 1st race winner didnt cost me the money title.....man that made me mad.....hope ya won alot today 108....breakfast on the backstretch tomorrow....horse #2 comes to track monday...its getting expensive! no races, months of training....

06 Apr 2013 8:11 PM

thanks koufax....200w 17-1.........flashback 300w 12-1......3400 or 3600......so im hoping too!

06 Apr 2013 8:13 PM

i didnt pick the card plod.....and im a win bettor mostly...unless 5 to 1.....so i didnt cash most of those place bets.....its about picking good, knowing the game......say what you will, i was unlucky....

06 Apr 2013 8:17 PM

you got me 108! youre the champ!!!! im banned till monday!!!! you killed !!!!!!

06 Apr 2013 8:19 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Just Bustin on ya VET - good times today.  

Looks like you split the Win title,  which means.....

06 Apr 2013 8:19 PM
1:08 and change

Shout out to the FLOW BOYS today.  Have learned a lot from the boys regarding pace scenario, positioning of horses, etc.  Liked Saturday's Charm, Swagger Jack, and Sahara Sky going into their race.  Confirmed on the first two when Plod sent his upgrades for the day.

06 Apr 2013 8:30 PM
1:08 and change


What was the final total?  I owe ya dinner sometime for your work today.

FA & Vet:  Great job, was a fun day.  FA, I would never play all those races either but it paid off today.

Still shocked by GOLDENCENTS...Into Mischief is producing some studs out of the gate.  Still not sold on Zano.  Vet, Like Normandy's move but not sold on breeding (Coldcuts will be lighting me up).  

Til next week...

06 Apr 2013 8:36 PM

Sorry this is a bit late, but here are the final results!

Ky Vet: 8 points, $91.30 w/p

1:08 and change: 8 points, $144.30 w/p

Forbidden Apple: 4 points, $54.50 w/p

Congratulations to all! Now -- how about Goldencents? What an improvement off of his San Felipe performance! I thought briefly that Tiz a Minister was going to get involved after making his typical run around the far turn, but he flattened out and never challenged.

At this stage, with two major preps remaining, who does everyone like heading into the Derby?

06 Apr 2013 10:13 PM
Plod Boy Phil


Thanks for keeping tabs on the scoring today, it made the 'big event' easier to follow.

I'm going to have to wait until after the BG and ARK are completed.  VET is holding pocket Tapits,  which is not a bad hand at this point.

06 Apr 2013 10:21 PM
Mary Zinke

Keelerman, You did a very nice job of being score keeper. Congrats to the participants of the contest. It was fun to come back from a day out and read the updates. My picks mostly were horrible. I did switch to Scarlet Strike, and have ticket proof, because I had posted a pick of her stablemate. Nice to know that when Sahara Sky returns to SoCal  he can close from Golden Gate Fields, since he closed from Buffalo today. Very surprised by Emollient--congrats to those who kept faith in her after her bad loss last week.

I still like Verrazano, and with Hear The Ghost out, another one I like is Revolutionary, plus a few others. Longer shot is Black Onyx. Maybe Uncaptured, too. A smidgeon of possibility for likable Mylute. I liked beautiful(I can say that since I'm a "girl") Goldencents since his dominating maiden win, but I keep thinking that he won't be helped by added distance, so I'm still trying to learn there.  Sorry, but I was not surprised that Flashback tired, not that he isn't a very good colt.

06 Apr 2013 10:29 PM

Goldencents surprises those who doubted his distance capabilities, me included. Jockey, Krigger, gave excellent ride today, this kid is good. Krigger says that Goldencents will run the mile and a half of the Belmont, no problem, the Derby distance is not in question for him. Krigger seems to be a good match for the horse, got him to relax nicely and finish strongly.

O'neill can repeat in the Derby, no doubt about it, he holds a strong hand.

06 Apr 2013 11:08 PM

Nice handicapping today, interesting contest, congrats to 1:08 and Ky vet and FA, that was quite a show of handicapping ability!

06 Apr 2013 11:21 PM

With goldencents' win; and his connection to Pitino, I see him taking alot of money in Derby Day betting.  He could even be the favorite.  

06 Apr 2013 11:23 PM

Below is an extract from a previous submission dated 12th Mar, 2013.

“Flashback should have been comfortable with the fractions recorded for the first 6F of the San Felipe. As previously cited he appeared comfortable and was under no urging while matching strides with Goldencents who seemed to be carrying too much weight.”

I was not surprised that Goldencents turn the tables on Flashback. As cited above in their previous meeting Goldencents appeared to be carrying too much weight. During the post parade for the SA Derby it was noticeable that he was in much better racing shape.

Flashback gave every indication in the SF that he was not a genuine router. He does not have energy efficient strides and will always find 9F challenging in good company.

His trainer proclaimed him a freak and a lot of people bought into the hype. I questioned the legitimacy of classification as the colt appeared average to me. He is just another colt that has not achieved anything significant in four starts that has been overhyped. Verrazano is the next.

06 Apr 2013 11:30 PM
Plod Boy Phil


Have to think that the undefeated Verrazano will be the favorite. I agree with Coldfacts that he will not be following in the footsteps of Slew, Smarty, Barbaro and Brown as undefeated Derby winners.

06 Apr 2013 11:40 PM
Mary Zinke

Verrazano is the next what, Coldfacts?  We can't like easy speed? We can't like winners? We can't like 3 year olds that have passed tests? If you don't like hype, don't let it affect you. You don't see me hardly ever talk about Feather Light, do you? I shut up for a couple of years about her.  Just think, if hype is for idiots, then you get better odds on the legitimate runners, right?

06 Apr 2013 11:41 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Then again, I'm wrong, alot.

06 Apr 2013 11:45 PM

PBP:  Verrazano should be the favorite.  But don't underestimate the uneducated masses who bet the Derby.  I'm from Louisville, the Pitino factor will be greater than the Borel factor.  I expect Goldencents to be 5-1.

I'm personally a Verrazano fan.  And am hoping Goldencents takes money so odds on V will be better.

You say you don't see him following in Barbaro's or Big Brown's footsteps.  Who do you like?  

07 Apr 2013 12:40 AM
Matthew W

Normandy Invasion ran very well today, and I was also impressed with Flashback, who also finished well....those two really quickened! (Flashback and Goldencents)...Baffert has two big shots, in Flashback and Govenor Charlie, and I'm glad Doug O'Neil is back in the Derby! I love Goldencents,I have since his first race, which was very eye-catching---I don't think he'll want any part of that 10th. Furlong, but Flashback will be rolling in the Louisville stretch!

07 Apr 2013 1:40 AM

Verrazano was tough today, that was a pretty nice win.  Have to re-watch it again to see how much effort he put in to hold off NI.  I thought NI was going to get him.  If Verrazano doesn't get the 1 hole in the Derby he'll be the favorite.  We'll have to wait to see if Verrazano survived the race unscathed...Gemologist looked good winning this race last year...

I was not expecting Goldencents to run that well, looked very comfortable in the stretch.  I read an article where O'Neill said they'll be tough in the SA Derby (thedowneyprofile) but I didn't believe him lol.   That was a good strong win against Flashback.   I figured Flashback will be all out trying to get the points and he did.  He didn't looked like he wanted any part of 10Fs....but who knows.

Looks like there were some good fun here today with the contest.  Congrats to 1:08 with the nice money total and to FA for a nice showing with a last minute entry.

07 Apr 2013 2:05 AM


From the head-on replay he darted to the right in the stretch.

When he pulled up just for brief moment he appeared to be moving gingerly on his front right.

I hope all is well and he moves on.

07 Apr 2013 7:40 AM
1:08 and change

I have to say I was completely wrong about Goldencents getting off the Derby trail.  You gotta love a horse with that much grit and determination.

I can't believe I am saying this but I agree with Coldcuts on Zano.  Anyone remember Gemologist? Undefeated? That's if Zano even makes it to the gate between now and May 4.

07 Apr 2013 8:00 AM
1:08 and change

Any side bets on Into Mischief's vs. Tapit's in the Derby? Vet?

07 Apr 2013 8:01 AM

Mary Zinke,

It appears did not provide enough details regarding hype. I harbor no dislike for easy speed, winners or 3YOs that have passed every test. What I did like is emotionally driven statements.

Each year a couple of 2YO & 3YOs are labeled Monsters, Freaks and the next coming of Christ. It appears there is desperation for either the next TC winner or the next wonder horse and this led to the continued lowering  of the bar for greatness.

Uncle Mo was hailed as super horse and TC winner designate.  Did his performances supersede any of those achieved by past champion 2YOs? The records reflect they did not.  He had a Face Book page; his owner was given guest blogger status; a race was specially written for him; projections were plentiful that many trainers would run out of town when he showed up; he was also the best thing since sliced bread.

This hype went on ad nauseam.

Union Rags followed Uncle Mo and the endless cycle of hype restarted.

In 2013 two wonder horses emerged i.e., Flashback and Verrazano. What have both done for this title to be bestowed on them?

They won impressively on Debut. We have seen that many times. They won graded races impressively. We have seen that many times. Why the hype?

When a horse’s performance does not equal or supersede the performances of past champions, classifying it as either a monsters or a freaks serve only to lower the bar of greatness established by exceptional past champions that left their hoofprints on sands of time.

07 Apr 2013 8:20 AM


Verrazano will become the undisputed #1 Derby Dozen horse after the Wood Memorial on Saturday."

You were no doubt impressed with his performance.

The last winner of the Wood that went on to win the Derby was Fusaichi Pegasus. His winning time in the Wood was 1:47.80.

Based on available records, it appears no horse that has recorded a winning time of 1:50 in the Wood has ever won the Kentucky Derby.

Even history was not kind to the great Native Dancer as he was not allowed to win the Derby with his time of 1:50 timing.

Verrazano will have to be the first to do so.

"Revolutionary and Orb are pretty good colts that appear to be still improving but both are not in the same league as Verrazano"

I encourage you revisit the internal fractions and final times for the LA Derby, FL Derby and Wood to see if the your above statement warrants revision.

07 Apr 2013 8:34 AM

I hope those who took pleasure in ridiculing me regarding Narvaez 4th place finish in the G1 FL Derby, used his form to enjoy the 12-1 return on Declan’s Warrior.

Narvaez and Declan’s Warrior dead heated in at quickly run 7/2F race preceding the FL Derby.

For me it was like manna from heaven and I collected a lot.

07 Apr 2013 8:56 AM
Rusty Weisner

Maybe I have to watch the replay, but I wasn't that impressed by NI.  I didn't feel like he really threatened Verrazano and Verrazano had done the dirty work of beating Vyjack, who ran tough.

I noticed Verrazano was like a shot out of the gate.  Something more to his credit.  I'll see how the 2 & 3 horses in the TB Derby do to see if they flatter Verrazano more, but I have a feeling some Giacomo-ish horse could be playable in the Derby.

I now like Java's War as an outsider in the Derby, even if he doesn't win the Bluegrass.  I'm also wondering where Falling Sky is running next -- I'd heard the Bluegrass, but the Arkansas Derby would seem to make more sense to me and if he ran there, if the track isn't the same as the day of the Rebel -- I wouldn't like him in the Derby but I'd like him in an exacta with Oxbow at OP, because I don't like War Academy.  Not California's year.  The time of the SA Derby didn't compare favorably with last year's.    

1. Verrazano

2. Orb

3. Revolutionary

4. Java's War

5. Oxbow

...beats me

07 Apr 2013 9:52 AM
Rusty Weisner


Re: odds.  Remember Pants on Fire with the female jockey, to boot?

I have a feeling this kind of stuff is going to depress the odds on Itsmyluckyday.

This kind of betting doesn't affect multi-race pools, though.

07 Apr 2013 10:17 AM
Rusty Weisner


I'm pretty tempted to rescind my pick of Verrazano as number 1.  I don't think Pletcher is the one to break the Apollo curse, and I still have a long memory about Gemologist, who was a horse I had in the Derby last year. I will look for any bad sign on Verrazano even if he doesn't have an injury outright.  Last year Gemologist and El Padrino were kept out of the limelight in Florida and both had bad works Derby week, if I'm not mistaken.  I think this might be one of your years.

I like Revolutionary better, but I think he'll have bad luck.  A healthy Verrazano I expect to have clear sailing.

As far as longshots go, I hate Black Onyx, but am curious to hear your opinion.

07 Apr 2013 10:23 AM
Mary Zinke

Coldfacts, so you just flat out want to highlight the disparity in speed figures, and this may be more hype but, domination in wins between UM and UR, when you happen to know that UR is JPM's(she's not me)favorite creature ever? Why get into that?  Another thing is, even if anyone can spell or pronounce whatever liver/bile duct illness UM had, what were you expecting from him as far as running in the TC, which was not possible for him to do?  You don't think he made an amazing comeback? Bad example of undeserved hype. Now, about the all-time greats reference. You yourself have understanding of why currently running horses cannot be compared to past champions of let's say the '60s or '70s, or even steroid age horses, don't you?  If you have something to say about the breed or sport changing for the worse, do you really think hype is the major problem?

Flashback: This is now many weeks later, so from what I hear, Flashback pulls constantly in his workouts, does not relax, and tries to run down his workmate. Too bad the anonymouses couldn't be told that before the San Felipe.

Verrazano: Has so far been making it look easy, even in his Wood Memorial test. He did, as I said, have to be reminded to keep going, but still, no problem. I don't use monster or freak unless kidding. Stop falling for hype and it won't piss you off. Others are allowed to have their favorites, even out of those horses you think have received false hype.

Was my response as long as your dissertation to me?  I usually have long conversations privately, not on bloodhorse blogs.

07 Apr 2013 10:29 AM
Plod Boy Phil


The comparison of Union Rags and Uncle Mo to Verrazano are woefully faulty.  The first two were hyped two year olds.  The latter has passed every test as a 3 yr old to date with two Graded Stakes wins in Derby Preps....apples and oranges.

As for Declan's Warrior, the impact a race has on each individual horse exiting said race is unique.  Did Narvaez' 4th place finish 10 lengths behind the winner of a 9f G1 (a race in which his speed figure did not improve) make the runner he dead-heated with likely to jump up in his next start ?  I think not.  This is a great example of using a result to support the argument,  after the fact.

Keep them coming.

07 Apr 2013 11:13 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Matthew W -

Goldencents and Flashback were both decelerating in the final 3/8ths - that is the nature of dirt routes. It appeared as if they were quickening because S99 was slowing down much faster.  That said, both ran well.

07 Apr 2013 11:24 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Coldfacts -

After Declan's Warrior won, I figured you had him - congrats regardless of the reason - I wondered if you had made a P3 ending to Freedom Child.  How ironic it would be if you used an all in Leg 2 and cashed the robust P3 when you were given Verrazano following the 'non-starter' result with FC in the Gotham.

07 Apr 2013 11:31 AM
Plod Boy Phil


Still too early for me to have a Derby horse(s).  I'll wait to confirm on Tuesday,  but I'm pretty sure Normandy will get the 'Grade' and that Vyjack will carry his upgrade. That said, I think that the connections of the latter may be best served watching the event. If it was indeed a Speed favoring scenario in the Wood, Verrazano will be 'neutral' at worst, since he was more than a length back of the leader at the first call.  For now,  all of the above is speculation pending a final Flow figure for the race.

You did make $30 on your show bet of NI,  so not a bad ROI for under 2 minutes 'work'.  Hope you enjoyed the day.

07 Apr 2013 11:44 AM

Plod Boy Phil,

When I saw Declan’s Warrior entered in the G3 Bay Shore, I noted that Narvaez with whom he dead heated in a very fast 7 1/2F race, subsequently contested a G1 against three of the top 3YOs stabled in FL. He contested the pace n finished a credible 4th. He finished ahead of the Champion 2YO who was previously involved in a track record setting race. You continue to cite the fact that Narvaez was beaten by 10L but not the fact that S/Booby who was one of the favorites was beaten by a wider margin.

Declan’s Warrior transition was not to a G1 but to a G3 and he was cutting back in distance. The information available indicated that he was contesting a race two grades below that which Narvaez had contested subsequent to their meeting.

You are correct in citing that this pertinent information was available after Narvaez's  G1 effort but also before the G3 Bay Shore.

Upgrades and Downgrades is not the only handicapping tool.

There were other information in the colt's PP that suggest he could win.

07 Apr 2013 12:32 PM

Plod Boy Phil,

“The comparison of Union Rags and Uncle Mo to Verrazano are woefully faulty.”

Like many you have missed my point. I am comparing the hype not the horses.

The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile normally brings together most of the best 2YOs in the US. Uncle Mo defeated them handily. He went from a MSW to a G1 victory in the Champagne. Two G1 victories in the first 3 starts is exceptional.  He deserved recognition for same but it got out of control and became a circus. Unino Rags was not different.

“The latter has passed every test as a 3 yr old to date with two Graded Stakes wins in Derby Preps.”

Verrazano started his racing as a 3YO. Which other tests could he have passed?

Uncle Mo passed ever test as a 2YO with two Graded Stakes win with one against best assembled from the country. What’s your point?

You can decide whether it Apples and Oranges or Apples and Apples?

07 Apr 2013 12:35 PM

Mary Zinke,

Kindly accept my apology for my extended post that change you mode of written communication.

Going  forwards I will endeavor to be brief.

07 Apr 2013 12:37 PM
Rusty Weisner

Plod Boy Phil,

I didn't catch the card, but I'm skeptical that the Wood was "speed favoring" when the two best horses stalk and pounce on a crazy longshot setting an easy pace and that one finishes off the board.  These horses were just better and I thought Vyjack was second best.  There were a lot of slow horses chasing these two and it's no suprise they were up near the lead the whole way.  I'm making Normandy Invasion a big "downgrade".

By the way, for those who claim weight doesn't matter, Freedom Child showed that's just not true, ha ha.

Again, liked your pick of Scarlet Strike. I don't consider a logical, legitimate 2-1 favorite "chalk"; it's one of the best bets in racing.  I ended up singling him in a P3 and a double along with Flashback singles.  I wasn't the only one suprised by the SA, though in retrospect I guess I didn't hate Goldencents as much as others.

07 Apr 2013 12:38 PM

Plod Boy Phil,

I had Mr. Palmer in every position with the big three and Freedom Child. I came away with the Super.

The pace of the race did not turnout at expected due to the gate issue with Freedom Child.

Things happen!

07 Apr 2013 12:43 PM
Rusty Weisner

I don't think Uncle Mo was overhyped; he ran the fastest BC Juv in years.  I think he was probably overdosed, though.

07 Apr 2013 12:46 PM
Mary Zinke

k, Coldfacts, but then you wouldn't be being you.

07 Apr 2013 12:58 PM
Plod Boy Phil


No argument regarding things to like about Declan's.  I just happen to believe that having Narvaez in his company line was irrelevant. I was in no way trying to indicate that Flow is the only tool useful to handicappers.  

Speaking of the Wood Super,  Carlos may have likely had the same as his post made it Verrazano on top with the remaining three below.


07 Apr 2013 1:18 PM
Rusty Weisner

Plod Boy Phil,

I'm already anticipating an irritated response from you, so I'll clarify my point.  If there had been a more honest pace I still don't think it would have mattered.  V & V just would have stalked and pounced from wee bit farther back, or maybe if they were closer to it the plodding competition would have made up a wee bit more ground in the stretch.  These two leaders, the two best, weren't the beneficiaries of anything, whereas NI had the easier task of beating an already beaten horse; he didn't get a pace setup, but he never threatened Verrazano, either.

07 Apr 2013 1:20 PM
Plod Boy Phil


You are entitled to your opinion regarding the 'Flow' of the Wood or any other matter in which we've disagreed (Rebel Day).

re: The SA Derby-

Goldencents was a nice example of the 'tandem rule' that I have referenced here a few times (credit author William Scott). It refers to an odds discrepancy when two or more horses are exiting the same race and less than 4 lengths separated them.  The public will usually gravitate toward the one that 'looks' better.  In yesterday's race,  both Tiz and Goldie were qualifiers at ~6-1 while Flash was even money.  Had handicappers taken the process one step further and used the horse who's PPs most resembled the favorite,  the result is an 'overlay' on the winner.

This is not provided as a means of past posting, but rather offered as sharing of some valuable and simple tools garnished over the years.

07 Apr 2013 1:28 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Coldfacts -

At some point 'hype' becomes legitimate praise driven by relevant accomplishments,  doesn't it?

07 Apr 2013 1:30 PM
Rusty Weisner

Mary Zinke,

Were you the one who liked Goldencents/Super99?  Someone did.

07 Apr 2013 1:31 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Rusty -

Not irritated. Perhaps just a bit amused.

We do not know what would have occurred with a different pace.  All we can do is evaluate what did occur.  Again, as I wrote above, no scenario put forth would result in downgrading the winner's effort since he was not the 1st call leader and he was more than a length back at that call.  Had he lost the race,  then the 'read' on him totally changes. The Flow, if the early analysis is correct, does present reasons to upgrade those that were in positions behind that winner at the first two calls, NI, Vyjack, Mr. Palmer, and even FC.

07 Apr 2013 1:47 PM
Rusty Weisner

Plod Boy Phil,

You've made note of this before and I like this angle, too. I play something similar on multi-race tickets when I see it; the public will definitely graduate irrationally to the the "best" horse when a bunch come out of the same race.  A couple examples -- that maiden that Bashaar won:  I didn't like the favorite, and there were four others coming out of a faster race; all were within a length or two of each other.  I didn't just take the second favorite, I took all but the worst of them out of the faster race.  And then threw in some others.  But in this one-on-one matchup between Flashback and Goldencents I just took the one who beat the other, decisively I thought; plus I thought the jockey switch gave Flashback enough upside (no complaints about the ride).

A similar thing was the correct play in the Providencia.  Five horses out of the same race, all competitive with each other.  Which do you pick?  None.  You take the other horse, the class drop.  I wish I had followed my own good sense here, because I got cute and tried to play the ticket several ways.  Not that it mattered, having singled Flashback.

07 Apr 2013 1:52 PM

without actually checking on past results, I would guess that Baffert has won the Kentucky Derby more times with horses that ran second or third in the Santa Anita Derby than with horses that won it. I'm just saying maybe Flashback turns the tables nest time.

I am beginning to like Lucas's chances this year, just hate leaving him out, for that's when he bites me.

07 Apr 2013 1:54 PM
Rusty Weisner

Plod Boy Phil,

I suspect the "tandem rule" works best in cheap claiming races where horses seem to take turns winning.

07 Apr 2013 1:58 PM
Rusty Weisner

It's probably not likely, but I would like to see if they can make Java's War show early speed in the Bluegrass. He's dead last out of the gate and runs every race turf-style.

07 Apr 2013 2:04 PM
Mary Zinke

No, Rusty. Must have been someone else.

07 Apr 2013 2:45 PM

Aqueduct reporting Johnny V. has taken a fall. Waiting to hear more about it!

07 Apr 2013 4:41 PM



Comment From derbygal

SA Derby: Will be using Super Ninety Nine, and Goldencents .  

07 Apr 2013 4:52 PM
Carlos in Cali


I did... x10. Not to shabby,considering the top-3 were the bettors' choice.

Would've had the SA Derby super too,if Goldenscents hadn't been in the race...HA!

07 Apr 2013 6:02 PM
Forbidden Apple

1:08 and change,

I skipped the first 6 races at the Big A and the first 5 races at Santa Anita yesterday. Even when live racing comes to Saratoga Springs, I often skip the first 5 or 6 races on the card. Picking every race is not for me. I found myself talking to much at the local betting parlor and missed playing a Battle Force/Jimmy Creed double, that hurt!

I was not blown away by any 3 year old colts yesterday. I think Goldencents was the most impressive though. The KY Derby remains wide open. Verrazano has no chance at winning next out, just my opinion. He will be a terrible favorite, a complete scratch from my wagers.

The unveiling, of what? I was high on Flashback earlier in the year, he is now a scratch from any future wagers.

07 Apr 2013 6:24 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Glad to hear it Carlos - nicely done.

07 Apr 2013 6:26 PM
Forbidden Apple

Close Hatches 1:50.53

Verrazano 1:50.27

Why would anyone accept favortism on Verrazano? Or fear him going forward?

07 Apr 2013 6:28 PM
Mike Relva

1:08 and change

Congrats on your selections.

07 Apr 2013 6:33 PM
Forbidden Apple

Is it true that Rudy Rodriguez is going to be facing another suspension?

I still say that Hear the Ghost would have toyed with his competition, tough luck for him.

Last year I remember Shandler doing interviews with Pletcher, Romans, and a few other trainers. Is anyone from within Bloodhorse planning an interview with Plesa? I'd like to hear what his take is on the FL Derby and more importantly how his horse is doing now. Was his latest a true prep and will his horse be ready to run this time around?

07 Apr 2013 6:44 PM


So you think that Verrazano is all hype? What about the colt you've been touting, Revolutionary?

Its interesting that a Pletcher horse keeps you in the Derby hunt after Purple Egg and Mr Palmer failed to make the grade (LOL). This is not a cease and desist order but you should consider racheting down from casting aspertions on that Trainer ...a thing you do even when picking his runners. Tell me, is Revolutionary your Derby horse? Verrazano is mine ...and he is king kong in the Plecher barn right now.

07 Apr 2013 6:44 PM
Forbidden Apple

Verrazano, is more like Donkey Kong!

07 Apr 2013 6:59 PM
1:08 and change

Thanks Mike.

Vet, quick question but I know you'll have to wait til tomorrow due to me, the blind squirrel finding an acorn... Did you see anything in Belvin's last race to suggest something is wrong?  Think they could send him to the Blue Grass even though he's never been two turns.  What do you think?

07 Apr 2013 7:18 PM


“So you think that Verrazano is all hype? What about the colt you've been touting, Revolutionary?”

Verrazano has been referred to as a wonder horse after beating overmatched maidens and NW2 fields

Has been the favorite amongst the listed betting interests in all three Future Pool.

He was chased home in the TB Derby while being pushed out by a colt returning from 3 month rest and making his second start on dirt.

He won the Wood swearing all over the place is a time that was less than impressive.

No one has referred to Revolutionary as a wonder horse. No one projects he will win races in a cake walk.

I have stated on many occasions that if Revolutionary is running on ability he will win the Derby. However, if high octane is involved he will not. I am also on record as stating the he is Mr. Pletcher’s best prospect for his second Derby winner.

“Its interesting that a Pletcher horse keeps you in the Derby hunt”

With all due respect Sir, Mr. Pletcher has won one Derby from 31 starters. He cannot keep anyone in the Derby hunt with his 3% win record. There will be 20 horses in the field and my hunt does cease because of Revolutionary.

“You should consider ratcheting down from casting aspersions on that Trainer”

I have records that support whichever comments I post about Mr. Pletcher and his high octane program. Can you highlight a 2YO he has started without Lasix? Why do so many of 2YO & 3YOs just disappear into oblivion each year? The cold facts do not lie.

07 Apr 2013 10:04 PM
Mary Zinke

Sorry to read of Flashback having a knee chip, KY.  I know how that type of news, about a horse you like, sucks. Looks like maybe Vyjack will be out, too.

08 Apr 2013 12:41 AM

Below is an extract from one of my posts dated 10th Mar, 2013 under blog captioned ‘Purple Egg and the Tampa Bay Derby’

“Flashback ran a courageous race in the San Felipe but was exposed as not being a wonder horse. I think this race is likely to set him back. The internal fractions recorded while going head to head with a very fast opponent is not good for a colt making its third start. He is a Tapit and they have proven to be very temperamental and soft. One tough race and they can go off. Tapizar and Joyful Victory are prime examples.”

I took an additional race but yet another horse sired by an overbred stallion has suffers an injury.  

Tapit bred 170 mares in 2009 and it is no surprise that of the 15  3YOs sired by him that have been nominated to the TC only one is likely to make the Derby.

The fans of Normandy Invasion, War Academy and Dan’s Legacy should keep their fingers crossed.

08 Apr 2013 8:30 AM


“Tell me, is Revolutionary your Derby horse? Verrazano is mine ...and he is King Kong in the Plecher ‘s barn right now.”

If my big colt Footbridge does not secure the requisite points to make the Derby field, Revolutionary is my man subject to any developments that are likely to necessitate a change.

I am still on the lookout for a colt from the Mr. Prospector sire line.

It is easier for Verrazano to climb to the top of the Empire State Building than to win the Derby. That stated, the top contenders appear to lack the cruising speed to take him out of his bridle. This why it is important that Footbridge makes the field as he has excellent tactical speed and has been forwardly placed in his last three starts.

If Vyjack could stay that close, my big boy Footbridge would out run him as he has the speed and pedigree for 10F.

I know I will be ridiculed for touting a MSW winner. Let me remind all that we are all evaluating horses for one the most unpredictable race on the calendar for 3YOs.

Start laughing!

08 Apr 2013 9:27 AM
1:08 and change


One contradiction after another.  Give it up.

08 Apr 2013 10:21 AM
1:08 and change


1) Orb

2) Oxbow

3) War Academy

4) Governor Charlie

5) Vyjack

6) Revolutionary

7) Departing

8) Dens Legacy

9) Itsmyluckyday

10) Goldencents

08 Apr 2013 10:33 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Just now hearing the news about Flash - unfortunate as the more healthy colts in training,  the better for us all.

Same goes for Vyjack, though I am on record as saying that one should bypass the Derby even if healthy.

Coldfacts, based on your logic, I should get credit for 'predicting injury' with my downgrade of Hear the Ghost heading into the SF.....seriously ?

08 Apr 2013 10:41 AM

:08 and change,

I encourage you to visit the Derby Dozen blogs and you will see the weekly changes and comments.

This will provide you with sufficient examples of contradictions.

If you could somehow find the will to remove yourself from under the cloak of Kentucky Clown, you will find liberation to expand your horizons.

That is highly unlikely as birds of a feather flock together.

08 Apr 2013 10:50 AM


My learned colleague kindly revisit my posts. I specified that Flashback is a Tapit and they have proven to be soft. The Unbridled Song horses are similarly soft and injury prone.

I am still accumulating examples that can serve to validate my opinion that horse produced from over bred stallions are less likely to win the Derby and are more likely to breakdown.

Violence is the product a stallion that bred 194 mares in 2009 and he is gone. Flashback was produce from 170 mares bred and he is sidelined. None of these large books bred have produced Derby winner.

I have established threshold of 150 although Marias Mon bred 139 and from that crop emerged Derby winner Super Saver. As far as I am concern he won by default.

Giant’s Causeway is one of the most overbred stallions in the US and of his 4-5 Derby starters none have hit the board. Curative Cause was by far his best prospect.

War Academy is nice Giant's causeway colt. He was produce from 194 mares bred in 2009. Base on his sire’s record I would avoid this colt if he makes the Derby. I hope he exist the AK Derby sound.  I have my doubts.

Ghostzapper bred 84 mares in 2009. I would not have predict an injury to HTG as he was produced from a modest book.

None are injury exempt but some are more injury prone.

08 Apr 2013 11:33 AM
Rusty Weisner


I asked you earlier about Black Onyx.  I don't like him but am curious if you have an opinion.

08 Apr 2013 11:54 AM
1:08 and change


Keeping smoking that funny grass down there, mon.

08 Apr 2013 12:11 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Coldfacts -

re: revisiting your posts

Thanks but no thanks.

Good luck.

08 Apr 2013 12:13 PM


If your favourite colt, Footbridge, is as good as you think, he should have no problem making the Derby field. I'd say if he doesn,t it shows that your judgment is off base also concerning Verrazano. Good luck.

08 Apr 2013 12:50 PM


I can only humbly ask. You are at liberty to decline.

08 Apr 2013 1:14 PM

1:08 and change,

"Keeping smoking that funny grass down there, mon."

Your ignorance is not dissimilar to the party with whom you have aligned yourself.

Where one is from is not necessarily where one resides.

I am a Naturalized Citizen of the United State and have been residing  here for the last 12 years. Mon!

I was of the opinion that this was obvious.

Where are you powers of perception?

08 Apr 2013 1:22 PM
1:08 and change

...JC...it was a joke coldcuts.  

08 Apr 2013 1:29 PM


“If your favorite colt, Footbridge, is as good as you think, he should have no problem making the Derby field”

My dear colleague Footbridge races without Lasix and consequently is always at a disadvantage to the high tech pharmacies parading around on four legs. His ability is not in doubt his connections just need to administer the drug and the playing field will be leveled.

Despite his disadvantage, I think the synthetic surface can prove to be an equalizer. The distance of the Bluegrass, will suite him immensely. He has tactical speed and has the stamina to kick home. He appears to be the speed in the field and I am very optimistic.

“I'd say if he doesn’t it shows that your judgment is off base also concerning Verrazano.”

Did you consider your judgment off base when Union Rags was unplaced in the Derby?

We are all evaluating young horses and the results of predictions will vary.

Footbridge is a much better bred colt than Verrazano and if he is  ready to run to his pedigree the Bluegrass is over.

I will always accept good luck wishes and I wish the same regarding Overanalyze in the AK Derby. Let’s hope your judgment is far superior to mine.

I wonder if Bashaar will return off short rest?

08 Apr 2013 1:42 PM

the stupid.....get stupider........

08 Apr 2013 8:15 PM

103 beyer,,,things were going so well.....perfect prep...........too bad.........its up to my #1 horse now....normandy......typical, that the retarded people in here havent picked up on his talent......it really is a joke........i'm embarrassed for everyone............do you people know what a good horse looks like?

08 Apr 2013 8:20 PM
Plod Boy Phil


You say it all the time,  big races hurt horses.

08 Apr 2013 8:39 PM
Mike Relva


If ten yrs from now Pletcher still hasn't one another Derby,Ranagulzon will still post spins for his king.

08 Apr 2013 9:11 PM

Mary Zinke : Yeah, it's unfortunate as I see him as being one of the rabbits, possibly setting close to the pace that Bode set last year except he'll probably stop at the top of the homestretch...setting it up for the real horses.  At least he'll be back later this year.

derbygal : Do you know who will be running in the Arkansas Derby ?

08 Apr 2013 9:18 PM
Mike Relva


What will you say if "King Kong" gets injured..... a Pletcher trademark of his Derby horses. Please tell me this hasn't happened over the years. Just my imagination,right?

08 Apr 2013 9:19 PM
Mike Relva

Intended to say won

08 Apr 2013 9:21 PM
1:08 and change


Thoughts on Belvin going to Blue Grass or Ark Derby?


Agree on Revolutionary over Verrazano.  Not even close IMO.

Also, on a serious note, congrats on your citizenship. Really do like your breeding info.  Just a little lengthy sometimes.

08 Apr 2013 11:14 PM
1:08 and change

Pulling Vyjack from my top ten and adding Mylute.  Any horse going on antibiotics now is done.  Alpha did same thing last year.  Automatic toss.

08 Apr 2013 11:20 PM

JayJay; These names were mentioned as possibles for Arkansas Derby. Falling Sky

Den's Legacy


War Academy

Heaven's Runway


Texas Bling

Frac Daddy


Looking Cool

Demonic (trainer not sure yet).

09 Apr 2013 1:56 AM

JayJay; Carve and Looking Cool are possibles,they also are under consideration for the $100,000 Northern Spur on Saturday’s undercard at Oaklawn.

09 Apr 2013 2:02 AM
Rusty Weisner

1:08 and change,

I think you're right.  It's safer to toss any horse with glitch in his 3-yo campaign.  To take another example, Frac Daddy missed some training because of problems and was a toss in the Florida Derby.  Alpha actually missed a work last year in the runup to the Derby.

09 Apr 2013 10:36 AM
Sail On

My bet is War Academy will get the points he needs for the Derby. i really haven't decided about the others. Too much buzz and not enough performance.

09 Apr 2013 8:08 PM

derbygal : Thanks for the info!  Hope it stays that way, not liking that War Academy is there but I think DL has a good chance to hit the board and make the field.

09 Apr 2013 10:57 PM

Mike Relva,

Shame on you ...sounds like your wish because of your dislike for the trainer ...I have to say get over it buddy.

As a true lover of horses you should perish that thought.

10 Apr 2013 12:51 AM
Forbidden Apple


Every year you call your top horse the next Triple Crown winner. What's stopping you from calling Verrazano the same this year? Go ahead, I know you want to say it.

10 Apr 2013 1:30 AM

Forbidden Apple,

I was of the opinion Transparent would have been entered in the Wood.

The colt does his best running when held up and produced in the stretch. Revisit his 4th place finish against Orb.

His 1:35 clocking in the allowance race achieved with a come from behind tripe suggest he would have been competitive in the Wood with a similar strategy.

His trainer has serious issues and gets a big vote of no confidence.

10 Apr 2013 7:18 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Coldfacts -

There you go again,  projecting performances achieved against soft competition into Graded stakes company.  Transpararent defeated 1-28 Vee's Accolade, a two time claiming winner, an over-priced colt that was off the board in 2 Alw1x races after a year away and another runner that has failed no less than 13 times in the Alw1x field.  

Perhaps a better indicator of 'Trans' ability to replicate in the Wood would be Elnaawi,  who, like Transparent, enjoyed a more favorable race dynamic in the Gotham than the winner, yet was no match for Vyjack in either race.  

Every year racing loses numerous talents due to the push to get into this one race. There is life beyond the Derby for horse and horse players,  or at least there should be.

10 Apr 2013 8:13 AM


“Every year racing loses numerous talents due to the push to get into this one race.”

I could not agree with above more. However, Transparent is not an average colt. He just needs a trainer.

I hate to make this request as the last time I did you politely declined. Irrespective,  kindly revisit the MSW in which in which Orb broke his maiden. Transparent was ahead of both Orb and Revolutionary and both passed him on the back stretch.  He was the only one that closed on the top three just to missing third.  

In his next start blinkers were added and he went to the lead and was blown away by Revolutionary by 8L. This was the same Revolutionary that finished 1L ahead of him in their previous meeting. Did Revolutionary improve 8L in 30 days?

He broke his maiden in a race in which he was force to take evasive action and closed from behind for a handy victory.

In the Gotham he was on the lead and faded. The colt ran his two best races coming from behind and has been badly beaten when on the lead.

What would a good trainer do?  (a) Remove the blinkers (b) Instruct the jokey to take him back and make a stretch run.

A colt that is capable of recording 1:35 for 8F in any company should be hidden from top class company. The trainer needed to do his homework.

I would not push a colt that I didn’t think was capable as that would be detrimental to the animal..

10 Apr 2013 9:37 AM

Wynn Odds to Win Triple Crown Released:

The over and under for the official winning time of the 2013 Kentucky Derby is at 2:01.80, , and each of those propositions is listed at -110.

How can I wager on the over and under?

With Verarrazano , Orb and Revolutionary recording time of 1:50 for 9F and therefore the final time for the Derby will be over the level of 2:01.80.

The fastest Derby time recorded in the last 10 years was by Funny Cide’s 2:01.19.

Bodermeister set killer fractions of 22, 45, 1:09 and the final time was 2:01.83.

More money can be made on the over and under than Derby wagers.

10 Apr 2013 10:42 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Coldfacts -

You know the answer.  Fly to Vegas  - make the wager.

10 Apr 2013 11:34 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Of course, I'd be remiss if I did not point out that the 2012 Derby splits were 22.3, 45.4 and 69.8.  Tenths of a second do actually matter in racing. Had Bode actually carved out the generic splits you referenced, he'd have likely run himself right out of the unhit Super High 5.

10 Apr 2013 11:43 AM

Plod Boy Phil,

Thanks. It might just be worth the trip. I do love a good Taxes Hold Them game.

10 Apr 2013 11:55 AM


1 Dynamic Sky

2 My Name Is Michael

3 Undrafted

4 Java's War

5 Palace Malice

6 Channel Isle

7 Uncaptured

8 Charming Kitten

9 Tesseron

10 Footbridge

11 Balance The Books

12 West Hills Giant

13 Rydilluc

14 Fear The Kitten

AE Divine Ambition

10 Apr 2013 11:55 AM

My future wage on Mr. Palmer is gone as he will not make the Derby field.

How did I become an enthusiast of a sport that involves tiny humans armed with whips on the backs of 1000lbs animals?

I guess it’s better than being golf enthusiasts. How can grown men armed with bags of clubs, hit balls and then walk to find their landing locations. The routine is then repeated if necessary until said balls are knocked into holes.

This process is repeated over four days over 18 holes. Was this game developed by cave men?

I understand they use to swing some mean clubs.

10 Apr 2013 12:27 PM

It appears my big colt Footbridge got into the Bluegrass field.

Revolutionary is my choice presently but if the talented Street Cry colt gets into the Derby I will be on board.

The Derby is the domain of the Mr. Prospector sire line and it always delivers.

10 Apr 2013 12:37 PM
Rusty Weisner


What a strange field.  I'm not fearing many of these kittens.

So Will Take Charge is not in there?  Was the explanation that Lukas chose to train him up to the Derby.  If that's it, I'll take that as a negative sign.

10 Apr 2013 1:14 PM

Rusty; Was reading this About Will Take Charge.

“We’re going to train up to the Derby,” Lukas said. “I just love the way he’s doing and the way he’s maturing. He’s really, really in the zone to me. I love what I see. He’s put on weight and his energy level’s really increased and I like that. I would just like to go in there fresh.”

10 Apr 2013 1:56 PM
Rusty Weisner


These guys are rascals.  You can't believe a word they say.

I don't know what to think.

10 Apr 2013 2:05 PM
Rusty Weisner


I want to hear what the horse has to say.

10 Apr 2013 2:06 PM

Rusty; Maybe Lukas and the owner figure it's because Will Take Charge has 60 points, enough to secure a spot in the gate if the race is oversubscribed. Will Take Charge ranks seventh on the points leaderboard for the Kentucky Derby.

10 Apr 2013 2:16 PM

Oaklawn Park - Saturday, April 13, 2013

Race 10 - 5:28 PM     Exacta / 50 Cent Trifecta / 10 Cent Superfecta / 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 10-11-12)


Arkansas Derby (Grade I)

Purse $1,000,000.  Three Year Olds. By subscription of $500 which shall accompany the nomination, original nominators paying $7,500 to pass the entry box and $7,500 additional to start. Supplementary nominations may be made by the closing time of entries at a fee of $50,000 which qualifies to start with $1,000,000 Guaranteed of which 60% to the owner of the winner, 20% to second, 10% to third, 5% to fourth, 3% to fifth and 2% to be divided equally between remaining starters. WEIGHTS: Colts and Geldings 122 Lbs.; Fillies117 Lbs. Non-winners of a Sweepstakes allowed 4 Lbs. In Allowance Stakes starting preference will be given to horses that have accumulated the highest earnings. Starters to be named through the entry box by the usual time of closing. The Owner of the winner to recieve a trophy. Early Bird closing Friday, February 8, 2013 at $500 for The Southwest, The Rebel and The Arkansas Derby. Certain finishing postions in this race will earn points to qualify for the 2013 Kentucky Oaks, pursuant to the officiaal rules for the Road to the Kentucky Derby published by Churchill Downs Incorporated. Closed Saturday, March 30, 2013 with 129 nominees. One And One Eighth Miles.  










1 Carve (KY)   3/G L R Santana, Jr. 118 S M Asmussen

2 War Academy (KY)   3/C L M E Smith 118 B Baffert

3 Divine Ambition (KY)   3/C L J Graham 118 D Miller

4 Falling Sky (PA)   3/C L M Garcia 122 J P Terranova, II

5 Den's Legacy (FL)   3/C L R Albarado 122 B Baffert

6 Heaven's Runway (KY)   3/C L I Ocampo 122 J R Martin

7 Texas Bling (TX)   3/C L C H Borel 122 D Durham

8 Frac Daddy (KY)   3/C L V Lebron 118 K G McPeek

9 Overanalyze (KY)   3/C L R Bejarano 122 T A Pletcher

10 Oxbow (KY)   3/C L G L Stevens 122 D W Lukas

10 Apr 2013 2:46 PM
Mike Relva


All I'm saying regarding Pletcher is he's had more than his share of chances. Time to remove the rose colored glasses.

10 Apr 2013 9:16 PM
Mike Relva


All I'm saying regarding Pletcher is he's had more than his share of chances. Time to remove the rose colored glasses.

10 Apr 2013 9:16 PM

Dammit, I can't believe Robby kept the damn mount on Den's Legacy.  I don't get it, there are much much much better jockeys than him.  This sucks big time!  That means if he hits the board, I can't play him in the derby.

10 Apr 2013 10:14 PM
Forbidden Apple


Sorry, but I don't care about Transparent anymore. He has a good trainer. Why can't you accept that this horse is a high priced allowance horse? Darley pays tons of cash for average horses, they all can not be champions. I believe he is part donkey.


How do you think Will Take Charge is feeling after running his last race 24 beyer points higher than his previous race? I'm not sold on Oxbow or Will Take Charge as serious KY Derby threats.

War Academy at 2-1, why? This is a terrible favorite, stay away.

No mention of the falling out between Irwin and Motion from all of you Animal Kingdom groupies. It was not enough for this trainer to win the kY Derby and the Dubai World Cup. Irwin is greedy in my opinion and always wants more and his own way. I'm happy for Motion to take a stand and say goodbye to Captain Bodgit.

11 Apr 2013 5:39 AM
Forbidden Apple

Why is it so difficult for NYRA to show the gallop out of all races? I just watched the replay of the Wood several times. I want to see the horses after the wire, this is not hard to accomplish. It looked like Normandy Invasion was long gone after the wire.

And when will NYRA offer a high definition feed? It's 2013, time to spend some of the Casino money on improving the product.

No comments on the sudden death article, hard to believe. It has been reported that 7/11 (64%) heart failure fatalities in CA were from the Bob Baffert barn.

11 Apr 2013 6:20 AM

Forbidden Apple

“I believe he is part donkey.”

The above is a very harsh assessment of Transparent. He finished 4 1/2L behind Orb when he broke his maiden. He was only beaten 6L in the Gotham.

He returned in an allowance race and recorded a time of 1:35 ridden from off the pace. He does not run on Lasix and this could be the reason for some of his bad beats.

He is still young and has shown enough to indicate he is a very good colt. That fact that he cannot put together consecutive good performances is a reflection of his trainer. Every time he takes one step forward he takes one backward. There is no obvious forward progression. This is unusual for young horses.

The horses from Mr. McLaughlin barn are some of the most inconsistent around. In some racing jurisdictions he would be cited for in and out running.

Darley needs to get rid of him.

11 Apr 2013 9:04 AM

Mr. Gomez is either very brave or very stupid. He secured the ride on the Todd Pletcher trained Dellhomme in the Rebel Stakes. The colt had to be eased and walked in just ahead of the medical emergency vehicle.

The Life AT Ten/Quality Road performance was reenacted yet again.

Mr. Pletcher is on record stating that he is comfortable with four weeks between races. When Place Malice takes his position in the starting gates on Saturday, the 14 days between races will be the shortest period between races in his career.  Obviously this period is outside the comfort zone of his trainer.

Mr.  Gomez has chosen to take the ride on Place Malice who is returning from a short recovery  and who will be contesting a race on a surface over which he is unproven.  

Mr. Gomez is the regular rider for Footbridge who like Palace Malice has only a maiden victory to his credit. However, he enters the Bluegrass off a victory, at full rest and with proven synthetic surface pedigree.

Delhomme contested the Rebel off a very long rest but on a familiar surface. He finished last. Palace Malice will be returning from short rest to contest a race on an unfamiliar surface. Add the fact that his trainer does not have a stellar record with short rest horses, it is quite likely that Delhomme will be joined by Place Malice just ahead of the medical emergency vehicle.

What was Mr. Gomez thinking?

11 Apr 2013 10:31 AM

Some readings from a trainer and a owner about points system.  

Gary Contessa, joking that he’s “not a mathematician,” did allow that “every trainer does some scoreboard-watching.” He said he’s “becoming more familiar” with the new points system, and likes it compared to the old system – which utilized graded stakes earnings – especially with the emphasis on races in the spring of the 3-year-old year, and a reduction in value for 2-year-old races.“I like what it’s done with the preps. There are big fields for every one of these races,” Contessa said. “It looks like it’s accomplishing what it set out to accomplish.”

James Covello,co-owner of Falling Sky,Covello is a mathematician. He said he likes the new system “a lot.”

“Even if it keeps me out,” Covello said.

11 Apr 2013 11:51 AM
1:08 and change


He was thinking he wants to WIN THE RACE!...Palace Malice will run circles around the soon to be footbridgejumper.  Man, that short rest really hurt EMOLLIENT over the weekend.  PM never even ran in the stretch last out.  He was bottled up the last 1/4 mile.

And enough of the lasix excuse.  Get off it.  I guess FRANKEL would have had like a 160 Timeform Rating if he'd been on lasix.

11 Apr 2013 11:56 AM
Rusty Weisner

Forbidden Apple,

Thanks for the recommendations.  I already hated War Academy; my comments on other thread.

I didn't like WTC and like him less off six weeks rest, especially from a trainer for whom this is not the usual, or originally intended, approach.  I think Oxbow is a potential longshot in the Derby.  I like him best in the Arkansas Derby, but am also looking at 10-1 Falling Sky if I think there's a chance the track is more fair than in the Rebel.

11 Apr 2013 11:58 AM
1:08 and change


How did Animal Kingdom run the best race of his life off of LASIX????????????????????

11 Apr 2013 12:24 PM
1:08 and change


Will be posting KEE and OAK cards Friday or Sat morn.  Two horses each race.

11 Apr 2013 12:29 PM

1:08 and change,

“He was thinking he wants to WIN THE RACE”

I am sure he had similar thoughts regarding Delhomme.  He is clearly not familiar with one bitter twice shy!

“Palace Malice will run circles around the soon to be footbridgejumper.”

Against my better judgment I have repeatedly tried to engage you. However you are making it very difficult.

Palace Malice record reads: 5 Starts, 1-2-1. Footbridge record reads: 4 Starts 1-2-1. Up to their 4th races, they had identical records.  Palace Malice has contested two G2 races while Footbridge will be making his graded debut in a G1.

Palace malice was defeated by a 99-1 horse. No horse with odds longer than 5-1 has ever beaten Footbridge.  When a 99-1 shot beats you with a trouble free trip, it does not say much about your ability

“Man, that short rest really hurt EMOLLIENT over the weekend”

Mr. Mott is not on record as being comfortable with 28 days between races and does not run a high octane conditioning program. How many suspensions have been levied on him?

“PM never even ran in the stretch last out.  He was bottled up the last 1/4 mile”

The really good ones put themselves in a position to win. His stalemate got an unfavorable draw and won.

“And enough of the Lasix excuse.”  

Does Mr. Pleather run his horse without it? Was he reluctant to send S/Bobby to the BCJ because the drug was disallowed?

Lasix enhances performance. I gave Bashaar as an example. He was dull and unimpressive until the Lasix was added to his diet. He won his last race by 10L

“How did Animal Kingdom run the best race of his life off of LASIX”

The rest of the field was not on the drug as well. Transparent recorded a time of 1:35 for a mile without the drug. Horse can perform without it. However, those that use it have an advantage.  No excuse, just fact.

You need to grow up and start expressing yourself like a coherence and intelligent individual.

11 Apr 2013 1:04 PM
Mary Zinke

FA, I notice that you are concerned about who talks about which subjects. Okay, I don't care about Team Valor hiring a new trainer and I recuse myself from commenting about the heart failure of that Cali trainer's horses. I'm sure you're not the only one who notices the news.  If you want to be first to mention, go for it.

11 Apr 2013 1:48 PM
Mary Zinke

My comment to 1:08 about none of the horses running with Salix in Dubai didn't go through. Maybe that's best, as that subject so upsets the complacent ones. Seems that the plane ride to he U.S. is so hazardous that most returning or visiting here must be administered the drug for their next U.S. race. If you were an owner, would you give up that edge? Who goes first?  

11 Apr 2013 2:10 PM
Rusty Weisner

I'm going to play Dynamic Sky in the Bluegrass in $4 boxed exactas with Uncaptured and Java's War, a $2 box with longest-shot Tesseron, and $1 boxes of Tesseron with the two favorites.  $24.

11 Apr 2013 2:42 PM
Rusty Weisner

1:08 and change,

There's a funny race carded for the 12th and last race at Oaklawn, which closes out the 50-cent Pick 3 & Pick 4.  It's a StAlw at 1 3/4 mile (!), and there is a very heavy favorite who has romped in two straight StAlw routes.  It makes me want to hit the ALL button, as I caught that 41-1 shot in the BC Marathon two years ago.  I'm curious what you think of this one.

11 Apr 2013 4:03 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Forbidden -

New 'tops' should be in reference to previous bests,  not the most recent race.  The 24 pt effort you mention regarding WTC is actually just 8 Beyer pts or roughly 3.5 lengths above his previous best of 87.  While it may still be cause for a set-back,  it's a far cry from a 24 pt new top.  

Rusty - The 7 weeks leading up to the Derby for WTC puts him well with a reasonable recover time. Running him again will do far more damage than keeping him fit without squeezing the lemon.

11 Apr 2013 7:38 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Rusty -

The slop debacle was more likely a reaction to the new top he fired in the Smarty Jones.  Note he recorded that figure while very wide,  which,  in theory make it even bigger.  For the most part, horses ability to run on slopy tracks is more a reflection of the current condition than it is a dislike for slop.  Sitting on a peak as he ws going into the SJ,  I'm of the opinion that had that track been sloppy,  he'd have handled it fine.  Slop gives horses that aare not feeling great a reason to 'chuck it'.

11 Apr 2013 7:44 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Rusty -

The last race of the Oaklawn meet is 'always' a dirt marathon.  Race caller Frank Miramani will take the opportunity to do impressions of a handful of famous race callers and personalities over the 14 furlongs.

11 Apr 2013 7:49 PM
Mike Relva

Forbidden Apple

Good point regarding your comment on Baffert. He's not on my hit parade. Bob is all about Bob,period.

11 Apr 2013 11:35 PM
Forbidden Apple


I am guessing that you were in hibernation last summer when team Mclaughlin was winning many high quality races. Again, every horse can not be a champion, no matter how much money was spent or wasted when purchasing the horse. With the so called powerful trainer Todd Pletcher, he is expected to win these prep races in bunches. With all of his quality horse stock, he has only two serious 3 year old colts in my opinion. They are Revolutionary and Verrazano. He was shut out of any stakes wins for 3 year old colts at the Gulfstream meet. So should his owners give up on him too? Did you forget that Darley won an eclipse for being an owner of high quality horses? Did you also forget that Questing was the 3 year old filly champion of 2012?

Who was your trainer last year, McPeek?

12 Apr 2013 12:02 PM
Forbidden Apple


People write the news and then other's read the news. What is so wrong about discussing recent news? Not everything in this world is blue skies and rainbows.

12 Apr 2013 12:04 PM
Forbidden Apple


Either way one looks at it, Will Take Charge went from a poor race to his best race ever. I would not bet this horse if I found a loose Ben Franklin on the ground.

12 Apr 2013 12:43 PM
Plod Boy Phil

For those willing to learn something,  the proper analysis of a horse's overall development in terms of 'new tops' is as I posted above.  Measuring improvement and the potential impact of that improvement relative to an off race or an 'X' is just incorrect.

12 Apr 2013 1:21 PM

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