Handicapping the Blue Grass Stakes (G1)

Keeneland    Race 10    5:40 ET

Blue Grass S. (G1)    3yos    1 1/8 miles Polytrack 

As always, handicapping a Polytrack race at Keeneland is not about identifying the most talented horse. It is about identifying the horse that will like the track and figures to get a manageable trip. This is one of the most wide open editions of the race I've ever seen. So many directions to go...

1 Dynamic Sky: Raced greenly last year when finishing 2nd in the Breeders' Futurity (G1) here at Keeneland, but he showed he liked the surface. He has some spatial issues - often leaning on other horses or running into space awkwardly, and the addition of blinkers at age three has not helped so far. Last time he was too keen trying to press outside the extremely fast Verrazano. He is better off settling early. I like his pedigree for Poly and the 9f distance (by Sky Mesa, out of a Distorted Humor mare than won a stake going 12f on turf). Hoping Rosario learned about him last time and will have an improved plan of attack. Consider if double-digit odds.

2 My Name Is Michael: No excuses when punchless in the stretch run (as the favorite!?) in the Spiral Stakes (G3) at Turfway (Note on the Spiral Stakes replay: program #1-5 in that race return here) . He goes blinkers on here. He has shown a decent finishing move going 8.5 furlongs -- when second to Avie's Quality at Woodbine and third behind Falling Sky and Dynamic Sky at Tampa. Rosario jumps off of this Bill Mott trainee in favor of the Mark Casse trainee to his inside. Needs turnaround and then some.

3 Undrafted: Here's the stretchout speed for trainer Wesley Ward. He won his debut at this track impressively, but that was going 4.5 furlongs. Distance is a question, but note that he did win going two turns on the Gulfstream turf. His third-place finish in the Swale last time was a good run. He's relaxing better without the blinkers. I have a feeling Ward will have him set for a top effort, and if the track is playing to speed he becomes interesting to me, especially at double-digits.

 4 Java's War: I really liked this War Pass colt on the turf last year and was surprised by his second behind Verrazano in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2), but note he is not a real pretty mover on the dirt. He looked better on the Poly here last year when third in the Breeders' Futurity. Contender.

5 Palace Malice: Had no chance last time when he moved early into a wall of horses and was bumped and blocked in the Louisiana Derby (G2) (brutal trip, watch the 2 horse). I liked him in that spot, but I'm less bullish here on two weeks rest and moving to Poly.

6 Channel Isle: There was no lack of try in him when finishing 7th, beaten 4 1/2 lengths in the Spiral. Figs say he is not nearly fast enough. Will need a fast pace to help him. He likes Poly, but seems outclassed for the win. Could maybe stab with him underneath in the tri or super at a huge price.

7 Uncaptured: Got a pretty good trip when finishing evenly behind Black Onyx in the Spiral. He was late to change leads, but to me he looked good physically, like he has grown up a bit at age three. He'll need to do better than that here, but improvement is quite possible second off the layoff. Contender.

8 Charming Kitten: Got a tough trip in his only Polytrack run, and progeny of Kitten's Joy usually love this surface. Pletcher-Ramsey is a potent owner-trainer combo, although he has finished behind a handful of today's opponents. On the plus side, the three turf runs down in Florida should have him ready for today's task. Fitness is extremely important on this track. Couldn't run down Rydilluc last time, but he gets a four-pound weight shift today. Contender, but not for me in the win slot.

9 Tesseron: The three-year-old debut wasn't too bad, and the first (Black Onyx) and fourth-place (Crop Report) finishers returned to win stakes. My first time through this race, I liked how this Tapit colt looks on paper here. But on video, I see him running in spots in a couple of his performances. He has some ability for sure, but I get the feeling he hasn't completely figured out how to win. Not overly enthusiastic about him in a big field on the stretch to 9 furlongs.

10 Footbridge: Tough to bet a maiden winner shipping from California to Lexington, going first-time Poly, but Footbridge has some foundation after running third-second-second-first in some quality maiden fields out West. Jock yanked him back off the pace last time and he came with a good rally. That's a good experience. Tough spot for first-time vs. winners, but the pedigree looks good for Poly (by Street Cry, out of an English mare). I could get interested if he's a big price.

11 Balance the Books: He showed a strong late move on the turf last year and should like 9 furlongs, but he was disappointing last time when trying Polytrack for the first time. He was closer to the pace than usual and didn't fire at all. Trainer Chad Brown puts him back in here on the all-weather (?). Improvement expected, as he's much better than his last. Candidate to come flying late.

12 West Hills Giant: He ran well for second in the Gotham (G3) when sent from an outside post. I'd expect him to be forwardly placed here again. He's run well on turf and dirt. Another contender.

13 Rydilluc: He's been dynamic during his three-race win streak on the turf. He likes to press the pace, but he has a nice finishing move. He came home his final three furlongs in :34-2 last time going 9 furlongs on the Gulfstream turf. That is very strong for a pace presser. And although he got a soft pace up front, there were horses on his flank trying to press him. I liked the way he reacted to that pressure, with a forward burst. He's outside of the other possible speed types and if he doesn't break well, a very tough trip looms. Turf front-runners who can punch home often transfer well to the Poly in my experience. Talented contender but must overcome post. Looked quite good working at Keeneland (video).

14 Fear the Kitten: Little Kitten's Joy colt was a clever claim for $40,000 in his career debut, but I'm not crazy about what he's done in the graded stakes ranks, and this is a tough post.

 Conclusions: Trying to predict how this race will unfold is not easy. The talent of Rydilluc is tempting, but I can't endorse taking ~4-1 on Edgar Prado from the 13 post on a new surface. There will be contenders offered at 10-1 or more, and favorites have a subpar record in grade stakes on Keeneland's Polytrack. I picked Balance the Books on That Handicapping Show, so if he's double digits, he will be my play to rebound second off the layoff. Not much would surprise me here.

778 Comments

Leave a Comment:

Little Bill

My first immpression of this race was if any horse deserved another chance it was B the Books at 15-1. Brown came out and said he hated the post. I didn't think it was big deal with his running style, but...

I have Palace Malice in books 2&3 so I'm hooked there. Uncaptured should move up after last. I'm hoping Undrafted keeps Footbridge honest, FB looks like the speed of the speed, and I am not swayed by SA times. Hoping the track will play to closers.

11 Apr 2013 6:41 PM
Little Bill

My second impression is my editing needs work.

11 Apr 2013 7:42 PM
predict

4/13/13, Keeneland, R-10, Toyota Blue Grass Stakes, Gr-1, Syn.,1 1/8m:

#13-Rydilluc

#7 -Uncaptured

#1 -Dynamic Sky

#2 -My Name is Michael

longshot: Teserron

11 Apr 2013 8:42 PM
Ranagulzion

Very interesting race on paper but I see an anti-climax on the track as Rydiluc stalks and scores impressively here under Edgar Prado. West Hills Giant, Balance the Books, Java's War and Uncaptured are preferred in that order in a close fight for a share the minor placings.

11 Apr 2013 10:23 PM
Monarchos Matt

It will be interesting to see how this wide open Blue Grass unfolds...I feel that the only real Derby threat in the race is Uncaptured, who has the two wins over the Churchill track, but that the turf oriented entries such as Rydilluc and Dynamic Sky have the edge here. Balance the Books is always a wildcard but I'm a bit wary after his last, his form may not transfer to synthetic at all.

I'm more excited for the Arkansas Derby, where I am hoping to see a horse establish itself as my Derby pick, because as of now I don't have one that I'm sold on, although I suppose I lean towards Orb. I've been on the Oxbow bandwagon since the Lecomte win and am expecting another step forward, but hopefully not a race that cooks him for the big day. As far as War Academy goes, it's time to watch and learn, while Overanalyze suddenly appears a bit more interesting now that the Remsen has been flattered by Normandy Invasion's Wood Memorial effort.

11 Apr 2013 11:18 PM
JayJay

Bluegrass : Charming Kitten and Uncaptured on top with Dynamic Sky and Fear The Kitten.

Arkansas Derby : War Academy and Falling Sky with Heaven's Runway and Oxbow.

12 Apr 2013 12:10 AM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

The last time I picked the same  long shot(morning line) colt as PD was at this same venue when Javas War was 3rd at 12-1(morning line)

Balance the Books starting at 15-1 should provide enuff cushion to at least be good odds in this 14 horse field.

BTW Normandy Invasion backers he also ran 2nd off the layoff in the Wood, and if Balance the Books runs 1st or 2nd Castellano could choose to switch over to him.

I always make my pick and then read other opinions on this blog.

12 Apr 2013 8:56 AM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

In the Arkansas Derby its Oxbow for me.

12 Apr 2013 8:56 AM
Coldfacts

Ranagulzion,

No love for Footbridge?

I know you like Govonor Charlie.

Why would his trainer ship him to contest a G1 if he had no chance?

He has only tracked half miles run in 46 seconds. The half mile in the Bluegrass will not be completed in 46 seconds and he will be on top of the leaders.

He is ideally bred for this surface.

If my facts are correct he and Govonor Charlie completed a mile in 1:36 on a 24 tack. That's impressive.

Show him some love as he is a talented colt.

12 Apr 2013 8:58 AM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Going back to the Spiral that race was run like one at a dirt track where the colts that were in front stayed that way to the finish like a conveyor belt the exception was Mac the Man who was eased.

Balance the Books as well as other closers were spinning their wheels that day.

12 Apr 2013 9:02 AM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Re the Spiral Black Onyx will have to run a lot faster with the same style that he won with in the Spiral.Motions two colts that won and came in 4th last year WTDWell ran from behind.

12 Apr 2013 9:05 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Chief -

re: Spiral

Seriously,  spinning their wheels? The winner came from mid-pack 4.5 back at the 1st call, the runner up was a stalker, while the two horses directly behind the eased pacesetter could do no better than 3rd and 4th.

While there was a hint of speed friendliness over the entire card, it was far from biased.

12 Apr 2013 9:45 AM
Rusty Weisner

Dynamic Sky with Uncaptured, Java's War and Tesseron in exactas, boxed.

$1 exacta boxes Tesseron with Uncaptured and Java's War.

12 Apr 2013 10:01 AM
Rusty Weisner

CHIEF PICAWINNA,

Black Onyx lost a race on dirt by 19 lengths.  Without Graham Motion the Spiral is the same G3 synthetic race it always was.

12 Apr 2013 10:02 AM
Rusty Weisner

Plod Boy Phil,

Thanks, I enjoyed your comments directed to me at the end of last thread.

I did not know that about the last race of the Oaklawn meet.  I'll have to ask Coldfacts for an interesting angle in that one.  

I liked the comments about form in the slop.  That's a very good way of thinking about it.  If CD comes up sloppy on Derby Day, heaven forbid, I have the feeling you can find longshots by deprecating wet track form and just going by all-around form; or finding a horse who hasn't been tested.  The odds on horses that have won on a wet track get hammered down so badly.  But I wouldn't relish the challenge of looking for them.

Please don't use the phrase "squeeze the lemon."  It's taken.

12 Apr 2013 10:08 AM
Rusty Weisner

I've got an open question:  does anyone know who the last Derby winner to supposedly "outrun his pedigree" was?

12 Apr 2013 10:36 AM
mz

Rusty Weiner: I don't know about the "last" Derby winner to outrun his pedigree but except for the fact that he was a monster, wasn't everyone worried about the Bold Reasoning/Bold Ruler in Seattle Slew?

(Uncaptured, Dynamic Sky)

12 Apr 2013 10:54 AM
1:08 and change

Rusty:

RE: R12 at OP Saturday.  I will use only the 3 and 6. There is no other pace in the race other than the 6. Sometimes you just have to single.  Seen much better races for an all button move.

12 Apr 2013 11:00 AM
Rinzler

Dime supers using Dynamic Sky and Tesseron on top. Tesseron doesn't look as bad as his morning line suggests. And although the rail may be tough and sometimes intimidating, Dynamic sky won't be hung 5-wide this time around.

12 Apr 2013 11:23 AM
1:08 and change

Rusty:

I am guessing Big Brown only because of Boundary.  But I am sure the pedigree experts will refute.

12 Apr 2013 11:24 AM
1:08 and change

And all the lasix pundits, please tell me if Animal Kindom won the World Cup on race day Lasix?

12 Apr 2013 11:29 AM
Rinzler

"I've got an open question:  does anyone know who the last Derby winner to supposedly "outrun his pedigree" was?"

Rusty,

With the exception of Animal Kingdom, I think it was all of them.

12 Apr 2013 11:35 AM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Plod Boy Phil I dont know about the entire card, but I watched the race, and looked at the equibase chart and IMO it confirms my 9:05 post.

12 Apr 2013 11:40 AM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Plod Boy Phil In the Spiral which colt that ran the half worse than 5th not counting Mac The Man made up the most lengths in the last three furlongs?

12 Apr 2013 11:43 AM
Rusty Weisner

1:08 and change,

You may be right.  A legitimate heavy favorite (a lot on paper like the favorite here) won this last year.  All the same...

12 Apr 2013 12:00 PM
Pedigree Ann

mz - Bold Reasoning was a first year sire (he had only two crops before he died) so one didn't know what to expect about Slew. BR was a bit fragile (only 12 starts in 2 seasons), and appeared to be a miler, with wins in the Withers (8f, still a big NY spring race for 3yos) and the 9f Jersey Derby (also still a top race) at 3 and a second in the Met Mile at 4.

But Bold Reasoning's winning dam was by Hail to Reason, a known stamina influence, from the female family of Belmont winners Bounding Home and Riva Ridge. So he could have turned out either way as a stallion.

Slew's dam My Charmer won the Fair Grounds Oaks at 1 1/16 miles and was by distance turfer Poker. Next dam was by the miler Jet Action, himself the son of Derby winner Jet Pilot and HotY Busher (10f winner, too). 3rd dam was champion 2yo filly Myrtle Charm, by champion Alsab (top stakes up to 14f). My Charmer was inbred 3x3 to the full sisters Striking and Busher, not a bad thing for classic types.

So their was some thought that he might be the full-on Bold Ruler type - too hyper to ration his speed for a distance of ground. But if he did stay, there was ample reason in the pedigree to account for it.

12 Apr 2013 12:04 PM
Rusty Weisner

Rinzler,

My guess about Tesseron was physical problems because of the infrequent races.  Sounds like everyone likes him as a longshot and he won't be 50-1.

12 Apr 2013 12:08 PM
Rusty Weisner

1:08 and change,

I am looking at the last four races on the Oaklawn card.  I think Justin Phillips in the 9th is worth betting against.  He runs all his best races on wet tracks.

12 Apr 2013 12:32 PM
Forbidden Apple

This is the time of year when trainers ship in for Keeneland and then start training horses for a summer campaign. I would not give much weight to the shipping in of Footbridge. When Treasury Bill shipped east, that was a bit curious.

12 Apr 2013 12:54 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Rusty-

I could have given The Bald Eagle credit for my 'squeeze the lemon' usage,  but felt such would have been redundit.

12 Apr 2013 12:55 PM
Ranagulzion

Coldfacts,

Footbridge is the pacesetter in the Bluegrass and gets gobbled up in the stretch in my assessment. Rydilluc is just too good for these right now. West Hills Giant is an improving sort that has a lot of fight and should be prompting the pace ...i expect him to hang around for a share. If Balance The Books reports on top of his game he'll be closing hand-over-fist for a share ...and Uncaptured, the poly specialist, deserves some respect ...Footbridge may be in a bit deep in the closing stages. Good luck my friend.

BTW watch Overanalyze sparkle in the Arkansas Derby.

12 Apr 2013 1:13 PM
Forbidden Apple

Wise Dan with Data Link, straight exacta today in the Maker's Mark Mile. I'll chalk out here and take what they give me.

12 Apr 2013 1:19 PM
josh

Hmm, sometimes 4-1 isn't bad on a good horse.

Rydilluc - I think he's got what it takes to win from the outside post here. He has the rawest talent here.

Java's War - I think it was no fluke running 2nd to Verrazano in TBD. Should be coming late really late.

Dynamic Sky - He's not as a late of closer as Java's War, so he could get a nice setup on the inside, assuming he gets enough room.

Footbridge is very interesting, and I'll probably play him a little bit underneath.

As for the AK Derby.

I'm going with War Academy, Den's Legacy, Falling Sky, and Overanalyze.

12 Apr 2013 1:23 PM
Forbidden Apple

I love a horse in tomorrow's Grade I Jenny Wiley stakes. I only wish that the race was at least 1 1/8 miles. Anyway, Abaco is listed at 15-1 with Gomez up, she will be flying late. I want to play a double into the Bluegrass, but at this moment I see the Bluegrass as a dartboard.

12 Apr 2013 1:44 PM
1:08 and change

Rusty:

RE: R9 OP Saturday

Flashpoint will be my single for the day.  If I go deeper I will include the 3,7,8.

12 Apr 2013 1:47 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Rusty:

re: slop performance a matter of physical condition

We had a great example of the concept I put forth previously today in the 6th at AQ.  The 3/5 favorite in today's race, Windsurfer, returned last out off an 8 month layoff by running a significant new life time best in the slop at GP.  Today,  feeling the impacts of that big effort, he regressed badly in the slop.

12 Apr 2013 3:42 PM
Coldfacts

Ranagulzion,

“Footbridge is the pacesetter in the Bluegrass and gets gobbled up in the stretch in my assessment”

On debut he closed from 9L off the pace and 5 wide TO SECURE 3RD. This colt is not a need to lead type. In his last  race his jockey took him out of the leading pack and asked him to close later and in both instances he responded willingly.

This colt is bred for the surface and distance. As Pete pointed out his dam was a turf horse. She won at 9F and was lightly races.

His sire Street Cry has sired a Derby, Breeder Cup Classis and Melbourne Cup winner. Those races are contested over distances longer than the Bluegrass. On the sire side he should get stamina

His dam was sired by Dubai Millennium who was a son of Seeking The Gold who just happens to be the dam sire of Zenyatta killer Blame. Three times Belmont winning dam sire Deputy Minister is the sire of his second dam.

This colt should excel at longer distance and if held up, he can closes as displayed in his debut effort.

I think he will better on synthetic and I am expecting a competitive performance on Saturday.

12 Apr 2013 3:49 PM
Rusty Weisner

1:08 and change,

My budget this weekend won't allow me the Pick4, so I won't play that race (no double or P3).  I couldn't narrow it down enough (I liked 2, 3, 4, 5).  I am going to try one P3 in the 10th singling Oxbow with the 1,6,7,10 in the 11th and eight in that marathon -- 1,2,4,6,9,10,11,12 ($16) and another ticket where I take Falling Sky, Den's Legacy and Oxbow with 1,6,7,10 in the 11th and hedge with that favorite in the last ($6).  In the Arkansas Derby, $2 boxes Oxbow/Falling Sky, Oxbow/Den's Legacy ($8).

12 Apr 2013 3:50 PM
Coldfacts

Forbidden Apple,

I find your assessment of the shipping of Footbridge to Keeneland absolutely amazing.

The colt does his training on the synthetic track at Holly Park and his trainer choses to ships him to  Keeneland’s synthetic track  to contest  a G1 race as part of his preparation for a summer campaign.

How do you come up with such a theory?

There were many other colts that did not get into the race. Why would the Keeneland’s Racing Office allow entry to a colt who is merely in the race for experience at the expense of others?

This is a truly amazing theory that supersedes the Late Development Syndrome theory cherished by Ranagulzion

12 Apr 2013 4:03 PM
Coldfacts

Rinzler,

Giacomo!

12 Apr 2013 4:04 PM
Rusty Weisner

I don't often make a bet on a weekday, but I wanted to bet Don't Tell Sophia next out after her Azeri.  I put $10 on her to win.

12 Apr 2013 4:08 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Rusty -

Tiz My Sue beats her again.

12 Apr 2013 4:11 PM
Rusty Weisner

Plod Boy Phil,

You like Tiz Miss Sue to win the race?

I'll check in after Saturday.

Good luck to everyone.

12 Apr 2013 4:41 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Yes - vs Plod Winner repeats today

12 Apr 2013 4:57 PM
Kevin

Going contrarian in the Bluegrass (chalk). Tri box Java War, Palace Malice, Uncapture, Rydilluc. WPS on Rydilluc.  

For Arkansas, Oxbow, Overanalyze, Den's Legacy box.  

12 Apr 2013 8:41 PM
Little Bill

I think Frac Daddy will enjoy the longer run to the first turn. I don't hold anything against horses that don't run their race at 2 turn events at GP.

12 Apr 2013 8:46 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Apple Blossom-

Another huge effort from Tiz Miz Sue today - to no avail.  Very unfortunate were we when no hole opened up inside. Rocco Jr had no choice but to take her around them all, losing ground and forward momentum.  She may have caught another speed favoring flow as well.  

12 Apr 2013 8:54 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Frac Daddy:  What are these people doing to this poor horse?  There should be a law against this sort of thing.  Mike Relva,  can you step in and stop this abuse ?

12 Apr 2013 9:10 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Blue Grass:  

We assigned an upgrade to Palace Malice for a making a premature move into an Extreme Race for Closers in the La Derby.  The read was driven by his position at the first two calls relative to the race winner. The unavoidable trouble he encountered did not influence the grade.

Arkansas Derby:  No upgrades - No play.

12 Apr 2013 9:44 PM
Little Bill

Phil,

I'm not crazy about the quick turn around either. I don't know if the point sys has anything to do with it or not. I mean even the Gr earnings sys owners and trainers would come in and take their shot.

Frac Daddy has been working lights out at GP and then nothing in the afternoon. It's not like he ran his guts out in those races. McPeek has always struck me as a responsible trainer. Owners? I don't know.

12 Apr 2013 10:02 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Fugue -

He was also working lights out prior to his last 'outrun' at GP.  I don't believe it has anything to do with the surface or configuration.  Perhaps the connections have bought into the whole 'winning as a 2 yr old at CD means a horse can win the Derby'.  To take it two steps further,  he may have even been weighted w/in 10 lbs of the division leader as a 2 yr old and he qualifies on dosage.....

The fact is, he's run 'fast' once and that was 1st time Lasix in a MSW race.

Good luck in any case.

12 Apr 2013 10:37 PM
Sail On

Do not see any horse here that would be able to be anywhere near the $$$$$ in the derby, why are there no real challengers in this race. is phony turf really that big a turnoff"?

12 Apr 2013 10:52 PM
Little Bill

Phil,

Good point on the FTL. Running up the track after working lights out is kinda my point. Thanks for your input and good luck.

12 Apr 2013 11:03 PM
Mary Zinke

Derby points races:

Arkansas Derby

Discrepancy between which ones I sentimentally like, which are Texas Bling and Divine Ambition, and which ones I'd include: Oxbow, Den's Legacy, War Academy, Overanalyze.

Blue Grass

Java's War, Undrafted, Uncaptured, Palace Malice.

13 Apr 2013 5:23 AM
Stones

I like Charming Kitten to make some noise.  I'll put a couple of bucks across the board on him and BtheB.

I'm tri-boxing 4 horses here: 1-5-7-8.

13 Apr 2013 6:09 AM
Rusty Weisner

Plod Boy Phil,

If she had won I would have ascribed the powers of a magician to you.  As it is, a small tip of the cap.

On Fire Baby is local.  Mine ran wide and off the pace, if I'm not misremembering, not what I expected or wanted.

Anyway, silver lining from the bet; keeping to $50 budget this weekend -- I'm changing my P3.  I'll take Oxbow/1,6,7,10/ALL instead of trying just 8 horses in this marathon, skip the hedge P3 and trim the price of my exactas in the Arkansas Derby.

13 Apr 2013 6:24 AM
Coldfacts

Ranagulzion,

Rydilluc is just too good for these right now.”

A colt that won its last race tracking 49, 1:13 fractions with 116Lbs and in the process beat the slow Charming Kitten, Reporting Star and Quinzieme Monarque, is too good for the Bluegrass field.

Are you aware that Charming Kitten was allowing him 4lbs and only lost by 3 plus lengths?

“West Hills Giant - I expect him to hang around for a share”

A colt that set modest fractions while toting 116Lbs barely hangs for second at 81/2F and is picking up 7lbs going 1/2F longer is expected to hang around on a tiring track.

Balance The Books could have an excuse on the ground of fitness for his last performance but his margin of defeat suggests all is not well.

Uncaptured record at distances beyond a mile reads:

WO – 8 1/2F finished 5th by 4 1/2L

CD - 8 1/2F finished 1st by NK

TP - 9F finished 2nd by 2 1/2L

They do not allow Oxygen Tanks on the back of horses.

13 Apr 2013 8:04 AM
Sail On

Unimpressed

13 Apr 2013 8:25 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Calder Race 12

8 Toto Jak (6-1):  has been on the wrong side of back to back Extreme Races for Closers at 8f.  Makes 2nd start at this bottom Mc level, turns back to 6.5f,  removes the blinkers and comes in holstering a solid 4f work four days ago. Outside draw ideal for stalk and pounce trip.

13 Apr 2013 10:07 AM
Coldfacts

Below are two quotes from Footbridge's trainer Mr. Harty

"It's a big field on Saturday and we are compromised by breaking from stall 10 but I wouldn't change places with anybody in terms of fitness, stamina and pedigree because I think that he has all of those bases covered.

"It's just a matter of whether he has the quality."

A great evaluation I ever heard one.

13 Apr 2013 10:18 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Coldfacts-

Is the above meant to convince us, or you ?

13 Apr 2013 10:42 AM
Cassandra.Says

WOW:

Take a look at the picture of Black Caviar in the news on this site.

Her near hind has just bottomed in what they describe as "softer" going. Would she be in past her hocks in really soft going?

13 Apr 2013 10:54 AM
El Kabong

Bluegrass is the race. Looking to forward to Uncaptured and Java to place well. I like 3 others to make it difficult. West Hills on the pace. Watch the races before to decide how well the pace is finishing. WHG will be keeping pace with Rydilluc and I hope tossing a little fiber in his face.   Tesseron, a gift at ML 50-1(won't go off at that I guarantee). Solid foundation, rug experience, and a very good trainer. A real good horse to add to exotics today. Palace Malace is the X factor. May or may not take to the rug, but if he does, the track has been loving closers lately so I have to include him today.  Uncaptured and Java look tops. Others could spoil derby hopes. Riders UP!

13 Apr 2013 11:44 AM
Coldfacts

Plod Boy Phil,

Information sharing.

All his rider has to do is avoid the rails.

13 Apr 2013 11:48 AM
El Kabong

I would be remise to not wish my favorite "turfer" good luck. Go Gettem Freddy!(Couples). Be the ball, see the cup, wear the green.

13 Apr 2013 11:49 AM
1:08 and change

OP and KEE top picks...Good luck all.

KEE

R7 2 Hogy

R8 10 Fantasy of Flight

R9 1 Centre Court

R10 5 Palace Malice 3 Undrafted

R11 7 Chalice 8 Saint of Saints

R12 5 Liz Pendens 6 Abbey St

OP

R7 4 Western Sadler

R8 9 Ft Larned 7 Taptowne

R9 5 Flashpoint 1 Gentlemens Bet

R10 10 Oxbow 5 Dens Legacy

R11 6 Denali Dreamscape

R12 4 Conservative 6 Flattermejim

13 Apr 2013 11:54 AM
Coldfacts

If Divine Ambition is  ridden off the pace he will win he AK Derby handily.

13 Apr 2013 12:04 PM
El Kabong

That would be remiss. My bad.

13 Apr 2013 12:05 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Coldfacts -

I know. Just playing.

Good luck today.

13 Apr 2013 12:05 PM
Coldfacts

1:08 and change,

Undrafted won with high weight of 118lbs over 8F on turf. He won by 2L in pedestrian 1:38.

He is picking up 6lbs for the Bluegrass. I implore you to change your selection.

Palace Malice won with high weight of 119lbs over 61/2F. He carried 116lbs in the Risen Star and was beaten by a 99-1 shot. I do not consider him the likely winner of the Bluegrass. Consider another colt.

13 Apr 2013 12:11 PM
Pedigree Ann

Cassandra - I've mentioned it before, but maybe not on this site, that overseas they don't mow the grass as low as we do in this country. No billiard tables in Aus/NZ/Europe.

And according to the chart, it was only a Dead-4 (dead as opposed to lively) track, which is not all 'soft,' as we would define it; had the reading been 3, it would have been labeled 'good'. So the track was slightly softer than what is considered ideal, but not what we would call soft. Just a few days ago Eagle Farm was running in Heavy-8; now THAT was a soft course.

How soft could it be when she ran the 1200m in 1:09.65? That's just long grass and perhaps an odd angle.

13 Apr 2013 12:16 PM
JayJay

Coldfacts : Who are you playing with Footbridge in the the Bluegrass ?  I'm guessing you're not picking to come in for 4th place.  Who will go with him to the lead ?

Also, who do you like in the Arkansas derby ?  Do you think DL has a chance against Oxbow ?

13 Apr 2013 12:17 PM
El Kabong

Coldfacts,

I was hoping you were out there for the live blog. I taunted you to get you come out and play but to know avail. Gutsy call in Ark. I must revisit DA-----Handily!

13 Apr 2013 12:18 PM
El Kabong

Jay Jay,

West Hills G, Rydilluc and Foot want that lead. What it's worth will be demonstrated by the races before. As of yesterday, keeneland looks to be favoring the closers, but that can change.

13 Apr 2013 12:24 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Coldfacts-

I implore you to consider weight relative to the others in the race,  not in terms of horse carrying more weight than in a prior assignment.  While weight is an important consideration in determining 'work',  the overall weight carried is irrelevant considering it's relationship to the animal's size.

Additionally, the off odds of a horse is merely a function of public opinion,  not the horse's true chances of performing well. Of course, this is not news to you.

13 Apr 2013 12:29 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Early money on the Blue Grass:

Palace Malice is 7/5.  

13 Apr 2013 12:51 PM
Little Bill

They're going to have to work to beat Undrafted to the first turn. Been breaking quickly in shorter one turn races. I'd be surprised if they try different tactics today. Rydilluc has been breaking with turfers. I look for him to be behind more horses and wider than he has been. If he tucks in 3rd or 4th he still has a shot to run his race. Standing against for the win.

13 Apr 2013 12:52 PM
Little Bill

7/5 Booo!

13 Apr 2013 12:55 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Fugue -

Concur on both posts.

13 Apr 2013 12:56 PM
Keep your powder dry

It'll be a Pletcher double for me today. Charming Kitten at Keeenland and Overanalyze down at Oaklawn. Pletcher appears to be moving in the same pattern with Overanalyze as he did Super Saver. Hope it works.

I'll also take a shot on Hard Not to Like in the Jenny Wiley before the Bluegrass. Oaklawn undercard looks a lot more interesting than I originally thought before this morning. Think there will be some surprises today. I'll take Cyber Secret to upset Fort Larned in the Oaklawn Handicap.

Good luck

13 Apr 2013 1:00 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Plod Boy Phil

I would be very surprised if Palice Malice got 1st in this race 2nd is more plausible with his running style ,in the Blue Grass Stakes a race with a full field on poly-track that will have more than one colt trying to get the lead.

13 Apr 2013 1:34 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Fugue for Thomas Undrafted wont get a clear lead that he can slow down in this field,I like hime but only as a pace setter.Ward his trainer rarely gets colts to stretch out their speed past a mile.

13 Apr 2013 1:36 PM
JayJay

El Kabong : Yeah, yesterday was very kind to closers.  I do think WHG might be tougher than what he's shown, I think he might actually be there at the end but again, it depends on how the track is playing.  I'm not playing WHG, just worried he might stay and keep my horse out of the derby hehe.

Good luck to all playing with real money today !!

13 Apr 2013 1:55 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Chief -

The more speed the better for PM - I have no reason to believe that he'll be ridden any different than he has in the past.  While I'll be using him and him alone in the P4, he's nothing more than a standard upgrade.  He'll get no more support from me than a standard upgrade in a claiming race. The BG is just one of two hundred plus races I'll scan this week.

13 Apr 2013 2:03 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Kee Friday:

Races 1,3,7,10 had pace scenarios that favored closers.

13 Apr 2013 2:15 PM
predict

WHG, was differnet horse on Aqueduct dirt than he'll be on Keeneland synthetic? My opinion he'll be left out of top four this time, as he tires in stretch and the closer, stalkers take advantage. IMO :D

13 Apr 2013 2:26 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

PBP OK out of the 200 or so that you scan how many will you actually play and what is your bet on Palice Malice?

13 Apr 2013 3:12 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

PBP BTW you know as well as most others on here that when someone refers to a speed duel it means just that, a duel between TWO horses.I remember when I first started reading PPS I could imagine a multiple horse speed duel it just dosent happen. One or more of the jockeys will defer the lead to another.

What I am implying in my race forecast for the BG is that Undrafted will jump out of the gate make the rail from his post and several will follow close enough to actually press him(make him work harder than he wants on the lead)I think he will fold on the Poly at the distance, but then that will open it up for a LOT of close pursuers and even closers.

Since Palice Malice is making a start after 14 days on a surface which he is unproven, I wouldnt bet him to win at low odds, and to me a more plausible result for him and his connections who obiviously entered him in a last ditch attempt to make the KD, is to finish 2nd and make it in.

13 Apr 2013 3:21 PM
El Kabong

Predict,

Here here! I hope so.

The fifth just concluded and the track looks to be playing pretty fair. That bodes well for Uncaptured.

13 Apr 2013 3:21 PM
KY VET

Plod......palace malice will run good today......ark derby, i hate all contenders...might be upset race.....how you can upgrade a horse for not even running, is beyond me.....palace didnt even get a chance to run....14 days is no problem at all........

13 Apr 2013 3:46 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

PLOD & VET SO WATTA ARE YOUR BETS?

13 Apr 2013 4:04 PM
KY VET

palice malice! duh.....

13 Apr 2013 4:10 PM
koufax

Phil do you still have an upgrade on Visionary Man at the big A

13 Apr 2013 4:14 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Send me an e-mail please.

13 Apr 2013 4:18 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Chief-

I posted my play for the day here this morning.

Like I said, PM is a single in the P4 - that's all.  It's a 3x1x1x1 ticket.

13 Apr 2013 4:20 PM
Plod Boy Phil

VET -

I explained why we upgraded PM - he made a premature move into a Extreme for Closers.  I do not worry about short rest and such things.  That's the trainers job,  not mine.

13 Apr 2013 4:22 PM
Forbidden Apple

No surprise, KY Talker likes the 7/5 morning line favorite.

Cold Opinions,

My point was that Harty ships horses east this time of the year anyway. So the shipping of Footbridge is not out of the ordinary.

Jenny Wiley: #7 Abaco d.d. w/ Rydilluc, Java's War, and Balance the Books. Rydilluc is my top pick in the Bluegrass.

Fort Larned romps today! NO daily doubles, since Oaklawn Park is stuck in the 1980's.

AK Derby: #8 Frac Daddy, exacta box w/ Oxbow. War Academy and Overanalyze are complete scratches for me. I honestly don't care for this race at all, might pass it all together.

13 Apr 2013 4:23 PM
Forbidden Apple

S.A. race 8: #1 Purim's Dancer. This is clearly a two horse race between Purim's Dancer and Mizdirection, a chalky exacta is in order.

13 Apr 2013 4:25 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Vet I will take Javas War on this blog to beat Palice Malice JW is the most likely winner of this race and you might even get good odds on him.

I have already taken a price horse Balance The Books because thats who I took in the free equibase contest,but head to head with you KY Vet Im taking the most likely winner based on such trainer jobs such as planning for this spot well in advance knowing what your horse is good at and not doing a rush JOB to drink Mint Juleps wearing a suit and tie in humid weather.

13 Apr 2013 4:51 PM
Eddie S.

Ark Derby- Overanalyze (form cycle suggests a win today, second off a layoff, has distributed energy going nine furlongs before and Rafi is in the irons), Oxbow (fires everytime, has a superior middle move, should like an outside post), Den's Legacy (rarely out of money due to giving his A-game everytime. Competitive and should like nine furlongs), War Academy (Superior late energy, loves the distance)... LONGSHOT TO HIT BOARD: Fallin Sky. Is all heart (as shown in his race against Verrazano, not giving up the lead for as long as possible), and he is a speed horse who constantly is there in the stretch......

Bluegrass.... I like Palace Malice. He has been on the top of my Derby Watch List since his Optional Claiming 2nd place. He had a terrible ride in the LA Derby, and he was moving very well with no urging, makes me believe he could have won the LA Derby. I don't like his post, and for all I know he might hate the polycrap and two weeks rest... But, I'll pick him. Good luck to all, enjoy the races.

13 Apr 2013 4:57 PM
Little Bill

Chief, I don't think he'll be there in the end but he will compromise the pace.

13 Apr 2013 5:11 PM
Plod Boy Phil

It was not a terrible ride - it was terribly luck.  Watch the race and tell me when Prado was supposed to shift outside.  These are not cars with breaks and acceleraters.

13 Apr 2013 5:13 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Forbidden -

Good thing for you no doubles.  Flow players were on just the 7 Taptowne.

13 Apr 2013 5:21 PM
KY VET

apple....youre a beginner.......this is a big boy sport.......watch and learn....

13 Apr 2013 5:30 PM
Plod Boy Phil

That Centre Court is a lovely filly, isn't she ?

13 Apr 2013 5:33 PM
Mike Relva

Java's War

13 Apr 2013 5:41 PM
Plod Boy Phil

We gave them a run VET. Tough beat.

13 Apr 2013 5:47 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Mike Relva -

Well done.

13 Apr 2013 5:58 PM
KY VET

changed back to wrong lead.....cost us....oh...well...6.00 place made me 50....but coulda been nice win...5 to 1 isnt chalk is it?

13 Apr 2013 6:02 PM
KY VET

man....ark derby has alot of contenders i think will go off form......but cant figure race....predict weak fig....

13 Apr 2013 6:04 PM
Sam Santschi

A beautiful thing happened..managed to shut my self out. Was watching NBC on the DVR and forgot I was 5 minutes behind, lol. Could not, would not use PM, liked JW but was still trying to come up with combinations, when Xpressbet locked wagers on me.  Actually had to watch the replay...dumb luck...

13 Apr 2013 6:05 PM
Mary Zinke

Yah, Mike, nice pick. Too bad I had no wagers today. Kids for sale. Warning: They siphon spending loot.

13 Apr 2013 6:06 PM
Plod Boy Phil

The lead change did not help,  but that's what happens when they start getting tired.  Very game nonetheless. Sure hope they do the right thing with him.  

13 Apr 2013 6:14 PM
Plod Boy Phil

On the bright side,  we don't have to read anything more about Footbridge...

13 Apr 2013 6:26 PM
Mary Zinke

Why not? Is Footbridge retired?

13 Apr 2013 6:28 PM
Little Bill

Phil, what do you consider the right thing? Rest? If he comes out all right they'er gonna run him. Do you think it's to much to ask. I've thought all along that the 3 weeks for the Ark and BG was pushing it.

13 Apr 2013 6:29 PM
Sam Santschi

Let's go Falling Sky, Texas Bling and Oxbow.

13 Apr 2013 6:32 PM
Plod Boy Phil

I'm very conservative in my handling of other people's horses.  

13 Apr 2013 6:33 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Fugue -

Frac Daddy with a big race.  Nice call,  hope you stayed aboard for some of the spoils.  

13 Apr 2013 6:39 PM
Plod Boy Phil

In fact, to all Frac Daddy supporters along the way:  Hats off.

13 Apr 2013 6:55 PM
Kevin

Think all the horses in Arkansas Derby are throw outs for the Derby.  Almost 1:52?  

All times this spring have been slow except on the conveyer belt at Sunland.  

Favorite might be 6-1 on Derby Day.  A very muddled picture.  

13 Apr 2013 6:55 PM
Plod Boy Phil

While I'm eating some words,  I might as well add Carve (Dr. D) to the meal. I did not believe this one had any right to be in the race.  

13 Apr 2013 6:58 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

PLOD & VET NIPPED YOU AT THE WIRE AND IT WAS the 4-5 exacta and Palice Malice finished 2nd as was the most likely finish for him.

13 Apr 2013 7:02 PM
Eddie S.

My win picks were Overanalyze and Palace Malice.

I didn't bet on Palace Malice, as I never bet the main track at Keeneland, and he is a personal favorite (I don't bet personal favorites, it is always a biased viewpoint)

I did bet on Overanalyze, but I missed the super.

Overall, not a bad day.

13 Apr 2013 7:02 PM
Little Bill

I did OK. Keyed the .50 89w89wall. keyed the ex 8 up and down. Carve beat me out of more tri money. No super, booo. I'm still in the game.

13 Apr 2013 7:08 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Chief - Congrats

El Kabong - Good call on Java as well.

13 Apr 2013 7:12 PM
Rusty Weisner

Just got back from nice spring weather to check in on the awful results.  I busted my budget and made one more bet this morning:  I took the 4 favorites in OP10, 1,6,7,10 in the 11th, and the 11 (Right Angle) in the last race, the marathon.  I saw Dynaformer in the pedigree.  I'll check in tonight on that one.

13 Apr 2013 7:26 PM
Age of Reason

Time to eat some Footbridge-flavored crow. The pedigree gurus will no doubt anathematize me for saying this of a Street Cry/Dubai Millenium offspring, but until proven otherwise my hypothesis will be that maybe he's best around one turn. Moving on...Before today's major 3yo preps went off I was really thinking this year's Derby would / will go to one of the old-timey outfits, Oxbow and Orb being the two who sprang to mind. With Oxbow's poor performance in  Arkansas I'll be leaning toward Orb in the coming weeks, though I usually end up with my Derby pick by backing myself into a corner--talking myself out of one horse after another until there's only one or a couple left that I can pick "without reasonable doubt". Oh, and speaking of the pedigree gurus, y'all should check out Incognito's impressive (I don't use that lightly) win today at Aqueduct; I could describe all the trouble he overcame but it's best seen with one's own eyes. One to watch this summer: www.bloodhorse.com/.../race-9

On to Louisville!

13 Apr 2013 7:32 PM
JerseyBoy

I had said previously that I would get another dog and name him Footbridge to make someone happy.

I now think that would be a horrible thing to do to a dog

13 Apr 2013 7:38 PM
Sail On

Like I said, Unimpressed. But it looks like we will have another closer for the Derby.

13 Apr 2013 7:53 PM
KY VET

oxbow.....still peaked..........pletcher almost got both.........nightmare prep season for baffert.......coldcuts still wearing straightjacket.........

13 Apr 2013 7:57 PM
KY VET

Horse #1 ....4th work.....4f ...48 1/5.....came home 23..........trying to slow him down.....lol....3 weeks till race....derby day!

13 Apr 2013 8:00 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Keep Your Powder Dry good pick on a Pletcher double and both colts ran well and Overanalyze won.

BTW there will be more than TWO trainers that have more than one horse in the 2013 Kentucky Derby.

After a quick look there are 4 trainers with at least two and three with more than two,for a total of half the field 10 starters.

13 Apr 2013 8:03 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

My bad Lucas and Mcpeek and Baffert only have two NOT MORE THAN TWO,Pletcher has FOUR.

My token bet in the futures is still good although at this moment only one part the the exacta looks live.If it comes in it will pay a lot more on race day but at least Its still good.

13 Apr 2013 8:06 PM
Mike Relva

Phil,Mary

Thanks!

13 Apr 2013 8:14 PM
I LISTEN -I WATCH- I BET

Each year in January I spend a few evenings per week reading all of your most informative blog postings and watch prior race videos.  When playing Derby and Oaks win & exacta bets, I really like playing the "Advance Wager Pools".

As of today, I'm feeling pretty good about my selections going back to Pool 2 on March 1-3.

All four of my exacta box tickets are still live for the Derby.  Most notable among the group is OVERANALYZE 37/1 BOXED with ORB 12/1, REVOLUTIONARY 15/1, ITSMYLUCKYDAY 13/1, ALL OTHERS 3/1.

ALSO...REVOLUTIONARY BOXED WITH GOLDEN CENTS 24/1, ITSMYLUCKY 13/1, NORMANDY INVASION 17/1/ etal.  MY FOUR KEY EXACTA HORSES WHICH ARE ALL STILL LIVE ARE:

REVOLUTIONARY, ITSMYLUCKYDAY, VERRANZANO (9/1) and OVERANALYZE.

THE OAKS...(Pool 2)Still LIVE with

3 KEY HORSES...DREAMING OF JULIA 16/1, UNLIMITED BUDGET 9/1, BEHOLDER, 8/1, ALL BOXED BACK AND FORTH WITH OTHERS AND ALL OTHERS AT 7/1.

DERBY POOL 3....REVOLUTIONARY 12/1 AND ITSMYLUCKYDAY 10/1 WITH $50.00 WIN TIX ON EACH.

OF ALL...My most exciting $2.00 EXACTA BOX TICKET CAME INTO PLAY WITH POOL 3 GOLDENCENTS 49/1 BOXED WITH JAVA'S WAR AT 31/1.  THE ONLY POOL 3 TICKET THAT HAS GONE BAD WAS MY E-BOX WITH HEAR THE GHOST 15/1 WHOM IS NOW OUT TO HIS INJURY.  FEELIN GOOD!  THANK YOU ALL FOR THE GREAT INFORMATION!

13 Apr 2013 9:30 PM
JayJay

I'm not sure if Uncaptured is even going to run in the Derby, that was very very bad the way he ran.  I knew he wasn't going to hit the board at the top of the stretch.  I hope he's alright.

El Kabong : I know you've been a big big JW fan and it's nice to see him win.  I guess that TBD race wasn't a fluke at all.  He's now poised to run in the Kentucky Derby 3rd race back which is a nice angle.  Hope  he gets a decent post, anything but the 1 hole!  Glad to see Palace Malice hanging on for 2nd but killed my exacta.  This was a nice tightener for him, he looks like he can get the distance and he'll be switching back to his preferred surface.

Mike R : Nice pick on JW as well.

I thought Fugue was out of his mind playing the 8 horse in the Arkansas Derby but turns out it was me.  I thought maybe he didn't like the GP track and that's why the connections wheeled him back and looks like they were right, that was a huge run.  Nice pick and nice hit on the tri.  Small bet with a big payout.

Any news on whether Vyjack will run in the Derby ?  I doubt Uncaptured, Falling Sky and Super99 will be joining the party but who knows, the lure of the roses will probably be hard to resist for those connections.  I don't see any horses from 21 to 35 going to the Lexington or whatever races are left so it looks like the field is actually set except for anyone dropping out.  I say the new system worked very well, the field all are deserving contenders, all have earned their spots.

KY VET is still blabbering about nonsense...

13 Apr 2013 10:42 PM
El Kabong

Jay Jay,

no need to give up on Uncaptured. I heard from reputable source he could bounce today, but I think he'll still make it in and with good works could still be alive for the derby. Let's wait and see how he works at CD. Java looked dependable today. His post won't matter because he'll saunter out of the gate and it won't matter. He'll have 10F's to find his way and I'm not the least bit worried that he won't relish the added panels. He's truly bred for it like no other in this class. With a good pace now assured, he will have a tired bunch to mow down and a long stretch to do it. Keep the faith on Uncaptured, he's not finished and I'm pretty sure he's in with 30 points.

13 Apr 2013 10:55 PM
JayJay

Thanks El Kabong, yeah, just didn't like the way he ran today.  He didn't have that oomph at the end but like you said, he probably bounced from that good effort in the Spiral.  I'll see how he comes out of the race and his workouts towards the big dance.

13 Apr 2013 11:25 PM
Sail On

Arkansas a bust.

13 Apr 2013 11:33 PM
Little Bill

Thanks JayJay. When they're working good and running bad I look for excuses, got lucky this time. I'm still on the P Malice bandwagon.

13 Apr 2013 11:46 PM
mz

Ack!  

Looks like Uncaptured just throws in a clunker every once in a while.  He did the same thing in the Grey last year and then he bounced back for some good wins.

Hope he came out of the race OK.

Also looks like Dynamic Sky is still clueless.

14 Apr 2013 1:53 AM
Plod Boy Phil

re:  Footbridge

It's been pointed out by an individual whom I respect that perhaps my comment 'at least we don't have to read about Footbride..." was beneath me. Please allow me to clarify the statement.

It was not meant as satisfaction that something went wrong with the horse or that he was trounced.  It was clearly meant for Coldfacts, who spent way too much time writing about this MSW winner.  Yes, he's beautifully bred, but the fact is,  in my opinion,  he did not belong in this race.  This view is not news to anyone that is reasonably up to date with this Blog.  It should be clear that I am all for the well being of the horse,  which means spotting them properly and giving them a reasonable chance to succeed.

Hopefully, he will be given a chance to grow and develop, with Lasix.  

14 Apr 2013 8:13 AM
Mary Zinke

Let's all grow and develop with Lasix. In fact, Gerber should add it to all of their products. There should be a Presidential Lasix Awareness Project. All Shetland Ponies and school children should be given ample doses of this miracle drug.  It's an inhumane crime to deny any living creature of its benefits.

Phil, was this the reaction you were desiring?  

p.s. For those who don't get sarcasm--SARCASM.

14 Apr 2013 9:36 AM
pgpg57

Java's War made that same exact sustained run from way back in The Tampa Bay Derby.  It shouldn't have been surprising to you and in that race at the end he was closing in on the likely favorite in The Derby, Verrazano.

9-2 was a good price on Java's War

14 Apr 2013 9:50 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Yes Mary,  thank you.

14 Apr 2013 9:57 AM
Mary Zinke

Phil, I can't imagine who it is you respected that well, but good to know that Hooters waitresses are into Thoroughbred racing.

Another thing is, you talk about someone else going on about a colt, but I wonder why it is that other advertisers had to pay for space at this website when you used to advertise for free.

14 Apr 2013 10:22 AM
Karen in Texas

PBP----Some of us understood your original point re: Footbridge.

Mary Z.----It's way too early on a Sunday morning for such clever, creative sarcasm. :)

14 Apr 2013 10:26 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Thank you Mary.

14 Apr 2013 10:31 AM
Pedigree Ann

Age of Reason -

Pedigree is about possibilities and probabilities, not guarantees. Kona Gold was bred to be a Belmont horse, but the wheels of fortune that are the genetic mix managed to leave out the pertinent factors.

Horses in the wild don't have to run more than a couple of fast furlongs to escape prey, so that is the norm for all horses, all breeds. With 300 and more years of selective breeding we humans have created a breed which can produce horses who can race at speed for up to two miles and more. But in the background is that tendency, that drift back to the norm of the species. Distance ability has to be tested for and reinforced to keep the Thoroughbred from losing the qualities that make them Thoroughbreds.

14 Apr 2013 10:37 AM
Mike Relva

JayJay

Thanks

14 Apr 2013 10:40 AM
Rusty Weisner

I'm very impressed with Palace Malice and will be finding a way to bet him in the Derby, barring the usual caveats.  Nearly winning on that surface was a pretty heroic effort.  I don't think being caught after running near the lead on that surface is a knock against him, or his pedigree or anything, which is apparently appropriate for the Derby distance.  He was beaten by a turf-pedigreed horse on a surface to his liking on which he's performed well in the past.  I hope Palace Malice gets some pretty decent odds after nothing better than a 2nd as a 3-yo.

Meanwhile, any possible long odds on Java's War evaporated, while the liabilities remain:  the question about dirt aptitude and the loitering at the gate; I didn't like the trainer's comment that he hoped for a little pace up front to have a chance in the Bluegrass; it's a closers' track.  Between the two who will be closing with a rush I much prefer Revolutionary to this one; I prefer Revlutionary at, say, 7-1 to Java's War at 12-1.

14 Apr 2013 11:25 AM
Rusty Weisner

Palace Malice ran a similar Bluegrass to Street Sense's.

14 Apr 2013 11:31 AM
Rusty Weisner

What a rotten race from Oxbow.  He didn't have the excuse of jockey tactics being far off the pace on this year's closers' track.  

Falling Sky is on the bubble.  I hope he gets in because I could use a tossout.

14 Apr 2013 11:34 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Rusty -

Please enlighten me on the similarities between the two colts' Blue Grass efforts.

14 Apr 2013 11:41 AM
Sam Santschi

Amazingly, Orb, Palace Malice, Java's War, Gov Charlie, Lines of battle and Black Onyx (Rusty's favorite, sorry)are the all others from pool 1 so I have them with It's my lucky day in my KDFW exacta box. Kind of cool but do realize that alot or most of the combinations would pay more than $107 on the big day. And yes, mz, Dynamic Sky looked clueless out there.

14 Apr 2013 12:20 PM
KY VET

For those of you wondering where COLDCUTS is.............he has been placed in a mental hospital, after seen wandering around his trailer park shouting "MAY FOAL!" "MAY FOAL!" over and over and over...............................

14 Apr 2013 12:27 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Sam -

You're ALIVE....beats the alternative for sure.  Well done.

14 Apr 2013 12:33 PM
KY VET

I LISTEN I BET......yes....yes you do like to bet the futures..................IBETLIKEANIDIOT.com

14 Apr 2013 12:41 PM
Plod Boy Phil

VET -

re: Ak derby

Curious to see if there's a big difference in the final time based speed figures like there was in the La Derby.

14 Apr 2013 1:05 PM
Forbidden Apple

KY Talker,

Only a beginner picks the morning line favorite as often as you do. Palice Malice was a suck up second, great handicapping on that 7/5 horse. What happened with the unveiling of Flashback? All you do is insult other's without picking any winners of your own. I hope horse one wakes up soon and then with horse two, maybe he's still asleep.

I believe Footbridge was trained by Harty and he finished last.

The biggest bust of the weekend was Fort Larned. I hope this horse is healthy and comes out of his dull performance to fight another day.

14 Apr 2013 1:07 PM
Forbidden Apple

Idiot would best be used to describe anyone holding a KY Derby future wager ticket on Flashback.

14 Apr 2013 1:08 PM
Forbidden Apple

Plod,

Yes, I saved money yesterday because of Oaklawn's lack of rolling doubles. And I stayed away from Purim's Dancer, she looked dull in the paddock and post parade. My win ticket on Frac Daddy is ready for the recycling bin.

14 Apr 2013 1:13 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Forbidden-

I know you are just looking for things to hammer VET on,  but Palace Malice was 8-1 ML and went off at 5-1.  He was,  as I posted, 7/5 prior to the opener on Saturday.  

14 Apr 2013 1:14 PM
KY VET

Genius apple....palice was 5 to 1 ran great.....flashback ran a 104? thats not a contender? youre ft. larned cinch wasnt.....youre still a beginner......its ok....youll learn soon.......im rich....if i dont win the derby, ill still be rich......i bet against people like you...................

14 Apr 2013 1:16 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Apple -

Glad to hear it.  Do not know how Purim's looked,  but I do recall responding to your to me about her that there was nothing special about her last race.

Nice support on Frac - too bad about discarding the winner for potential exactas.

14 Apr 2013 1:16 PM
KY VET

apple....horse #1 runs derby day.....cant be claimed off 6 months...free pass....feeling, training better than last year......looks to have them over a barrel......but maybe he will make your day and lose.....

14 Apr 2013 1:20 PM
KY VET

plod....yes, i doubt either prep race was fast.....we will see.....

14 Apr 2013 1:27 PM
KY VET

anyone else notice Java war's stride is kinda funny? kinda ugly.......

14 Apr 2013 1:31 PM
Mary Zinke

Stop being finite.

14 Apr 2013 1:34 PM
KY VET

OMG!!!!! pim race 11 !!!! WHOLLY GOD!!!!!! WATCH THIS RIDE!!!!!!!! the most AMAZING THING YOULL EVER SEE!!!!!!! THE HORSE WON!!!!!!! YOU WILL NOT BELIVE YOUR EYES!!!!!!!! yesterdat the 13th race 11

14 Apr 2013 1:35 PM
Plod Boy Phil

VET -

I did.  He looked a bit like a duck paddling,  but what do I know.

14 Apr 2013 1:37 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Oh My !!  Never seen that before - not to that extent.  Makes the Incognito trip yesterday look perfect.

14 Apr 2013 1:41 PM
KY VET

wow......

14 Apr 2013 1:50 PM
KY VET

just heard ark.derby got 88 beyer? i posted i thought it would be slow.....im good!  heard beyer of bluegrass anyone?

14 Apr 2013 1:57 PM
I LISTEN -I WATCH- I BET

KY VET,

Thanks for the "kind" words related to my FIRST post above.  First off...I'm learned over time when people speak about "how rich" they are, the are usually full of crapolla.  The fact that you ended you short retort to my posting of Future Pool Bets as being an "IDIOT", only confirms that you apparently hate yourself and are a totally insecure person.  To whit,  Why don't YOU pick the horses out 60 days in advance and stand firm on your positions.  I listed mine...and can completely back them up.  Just for the record "Vet", you have insulted a guy that you don't even know, and I'd doubt with "riches" that you hit last years Derby.  Not the "win" bet "doc", but the Superfecta that paid ME just over $48,000., 3 different Trifectas that paid almost $2,000 EACH, the Oaks/Derby Daily Double that paid me $713.00, and YES, an idiotic Advance Pool Exacta that paid about

$565,00.   Sooooo...With "RICH" bankroll and the obvious savvy for betting that you must have, I'm certain that you must have hit the PICK-5.  To conclude, I realize that getting into the "inner circle" of all knowing horse players is difficult.  This same thing happened to me at my OTB.  Today all of the "old timers" and I are totally friendly and beg for my picks.  TA-TA "Dr."...I listen, I watch, I wager, and most importantly of all (which was unmentioned in my post) I WIN.  So Mr. Vet,,,I look forward to viewing your bold picks in writing.  I have a hunch that you leave with much less than you bet.  As for money....I'd bet that you could not afford the guesthouse at my Scottsdale Arizona property alone.  I'll be watching "doc"!   Quite the nice fellow.

14 Apr 2013 2:03 PM
KY VET

i listen......you told me huh?  good luck on your 16 horses!

14 Apr 2013 2:37 PM
KY VET

I listen.....after the derby......"I knew it!"

14 Apr 2013 2:38 PM
papillon

wasn't impressed by the ark derby at all--frac daddy's 2nd place finish shows it was a slow field.

before the fl derby, i said here that he was too slow to win--and in the fl derby he comes in 5th, over 18 lengths back in a time of 1:54, yesterday he comes in 2nd over 4 lengths back in 1:53.

this poor horse has no business in the KY derby, and his being able to enter shows that the point system lets in horses that don't belong just like the $ system did--both can be gamed.

the ark derby also reflects pretty poorly on both vyjack and verranzo--falling sky finished about 1 1/2 seconds behind verranzo in the tb derby that everybody has been raving about, carrying 6 more pounds than veranzano and setting almost identical fractions as in the ark derby yesterday, where he finished just about over a second behind the overanalyze, and less than 1/2 second behind frac daddy

if you extrapolate from this, even conservatively, that places verranzo's tb derby performance at least 5-10 lengths behind orb in the fl derby.

overanylyze lost to vyjack in the gotham by about a second, and vyjack lost to verranzo by just short of a length--or 10-15 lengths behind orb's fl derby (for both verranzo and vyjack)--which is just about right given where frac daddy finished in both the fl derby and the ark derby.

the wood wasn't a deceptively slow race that was really a good race, it was a slow race that was really a slow race.

everybody loves to discount raw times, but time is the only objective measure of performance in horse racing, everything else is subjective.

regardless of track and conditions, horses usually run pace lines and final times that vary only by fractions of second--they may throw in the odd clunker or spectacular race, but in statistics you always throw out the outliers, when calculating likelihoods.

in my opinion, the two factors the effect raw time the most in horse racing, are track depth and humidity--the deeper the track, the more humid the day, the slower the time for an equal effort (this is actually backed up by pretty reliable studies--this is why speed records (in any sport) tend to be set in dry locations at altitude, where there is far less air resistance.

chip mcgaughey tweeted a pretty impressive photo of orb training today--i had never thought much of his looks, having only seen him in his hot-mess race state--but wow!

twitter.com/.../1

14 Apr 2013 2:43 PM
Karen in Texas

Blue Grass given a BSF of 89.

14 Apr 2013 2:59 PM
KY VET

wow....89 thanx karen......those are too slow to believe.....thats mdn times....

14 Apr 2013 3:05 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Itsmyluckyday looking more and more playable.  Folks holding those tickets at any price should be feeling good.

14 Apr 2013 3:10 PM
I LISTEN -I WATCH- I BET

KY NUT.

Would you like to put a little side wager on it MR."RICH"?  (Come on...you have plenty of extra cash around!)  I used my core horses with bombs.  (Goldencents  @ 49/1,  Java's War @31/1, etc...  Additionally I have several duplicate tickets to avoid the IRS rules.   Horse racing is a GAMBLE and I play for LONG ODDS.  That's exactly how I came away from the OAKS & DERBY last year with a $58,000 total profit after backing out my wagering costs.  Just to illustrate how self rude and stupid guys of your ilk are, there is a fellow at my OTB that bets ONLY a 1-2-6 Exact Box on all races with a minimum of 8 horses.  (Regardless of the odds)  Needless to say, while he enjoys the day smoking his cigars with a couple adult beverages, he does BETTER than 80% of the know it all's like YOU!.  NO friend, it's NOT a matter of "telling you", to the contrary, I pity people like you.  As I view your comments elsewhere, there is a distinct pattern of loathing others.  Before you had responded to me, I did not even read your comments.  Hence forward, I'll still not read anything you have to offer unless you are willing to put your tons of money where your mouth is.  Otherwise, you are just another insecure, self loathing, addicted gambler with NO life other than to insult people you don't even know.  Quite a pathetic person.   Good Riddens KY VET, if you were a horse you would be a 2,000 Maiden Claimer going of at 99/1.  Ha!

14 Apr 2013 3:15 PM
KY VET

dad? is that you?

14 Apr 2013 3:37 PM
Mike Relva

I Listen-I Watch-I Bet

Regarding your unfair slam of Vet:

Where were you when certain individuals wrecked a NTRA site? Right.

14 Apr 2013 3:48 PM
Mike Relva

Begging for your picks? When did that happen? lmao

14 Apr 2013 3:51 PM
I LISTEN -I WATCH- I BET

AH...Some insight, easy to read.  Issues with insecurity?  Trying to make others feel bad helps take the pain away right?  Poor boy, I understand.  Maybe you should quit with the ponies and seek some help?  I can assist with the financial part if you really need it.  It's just difficult to watch and read the underlying pain you must be going through as you seek attention by attacking others.  So sad.....Seriously.

14 Apr 2013 3:55 PM
Mike Relva

What were you telling Vet that usually those that boasts of having money don't? lmao You should think about it. Pot calling kettle.

14 Apr 2013 4:02 PM
I LISTEN -I WATCH- I BET

MIKE,

Rather than mouthing off also, why don't you read the complete comments that I made.  If you think for a second that anyone who posted their first EVER post deserved the response that I received from that nutcase KY VET, than YOU also are a jerk Mike.  I know your types... Why don't you just mind your own business and focus on the horses, having fun, making friends, winning money.  Instead...you guys "think" that what you post is all that matters and "new people" are treated as if they are some sort of a threat.  Just butt the hell out and post your betting opinions okay.  Peace...

14 Apr 2013 4:05 PM
I LISTEN -I WATCH- I BET

Phod Boy Phil,

Agreed...I'm diggin' ITSMYLUCKYDAY also!  Might just have a shot at it!

14 Apr 2013 4:09 PM
Sam Santschi

Thanks to TheOlballcoach1 via twitter for Cape Song just paid $15 to place at Aqueduct. Helped to take some of the sting out of yesterday. Can't wait to get to Louisville in a couple weeks...Had snow (again) in WI last night.  Works really important this year i'm thinking.

14 Apr 2013 4:09 PM
Mike Relva

I Listen-I Watch-I Bet

Don't take kindly to anyone telling me what to do,online or in person for that matter. Was pointing out you slammed Vet regarding premise of having money,then you're boasting about your property and funds. Give me a break.

14 Apr 2013 4:28 PM
Mike Relva

And..... you don't come even close to knowing my "type".

14 Apr 2013 4:31 PM
KY VET

look i listen........if anyone would make a post saying they had 16 horses in the early wager, i would do the same thing........bring some knowlege to the blog, not lotto tickets...............

14 Apr 2013 4:54 PM
Little Bill

Good for you, LWBet, standing up.

Mike, how can any slam against Vet be unfair. He begs for it.

14 Apr 2013 5:00 PM
I LISTEN -I WATCH- I BET

Context Mike.  It was the illustration of just how rude VET's comments were to another.  What does money have to do with it Mike....NOTHING.  That is my exact point.  Those that lack a sound foundation "think" that wealth really matters.  Those that do this only relate when someone could hire then as a yard keeper.  Not sure if you get my point Mike.  My retort was simply a way to use the foolish comments that VET used about being "rich" as a slam on another.  So Mike...You have expressed your anger at my comments.  Did you bother to go back to read my first ever post on April 13th at 9:30PM??  Then read KY VET's reply to my post on April 14th @ 12:41PM. (View the web address....using the word Idiot.  This is what started it off Mike.  If my FIRST post was off base, then it's my bad and I'm sorry.  It was intended to THANK many bloggers for GREAT information.  (That IS what this is all about right Mike?)  Sharing info and opinions and NOT insults.  To conclude....This reminds me of GANG MEMBERS.  In many cases, if you simply live just one street over, one zip code number difference, then without ANY valid reason they become mortal enemies.  The truth is, these SAME kids would be best of friends if they only knew each other.  This blows my mind.  So if you guys want to pop off as if you were in the hood, go ahead and knock yourselves out.  And yes Mike...I don't "know" you.  Chances are pretty good that we all could have made new friends instead of using a stupid post as if it were a street name in the hood.  Just my opinion.

14 Apr 2013 5:08 PM
KY VET

lighten up FRANCIS!!!!!

14 Apr 2013 5:20 PM
longwaytomay

Do we really need another pissing match on this blog?

Only 3 weeks till the Derby people. Time to do your homework and maybe share some thoughts. I am not in love with any horse at the moment and think they all look pretty average to me. I know that might hurt some feelings but all the races have been really slow.(The Govenor doesn't count) Somebody is going to have to really flourish at CD for me to jump on their bandwagon.

14 Apr 2013 5:34 PM
I LISTEN -I WATCH- I BET

Dog GROOMER  aka Ky VET,

Oh wise one, My advance wager "LOTTO" tickets with GOLGENCENTS @ 24/1 AND 49/1 in pools 2&3 in exacta boxes with Revolutionary @15/1 and 12/1 with Normandy Invasion @17/1, code West @ 29/1 with Java's War @ 31/1

REVOLUTIONARY Exacta Boxed with ORB @ 13/1, Normandy Invasion @17/1, with Goldencents @24/1, with Itsmyluckyday @ 13/1

ALSO...REVOLUTIONARY @ 12/1 EXACTA BOXED WITH Orb @ 13/1, with Oxbow @ 21/1, with WAR Academy @ 18/1

et/al.  So tell me wise one....Since ALL of my advance wagers are still live for the Derby and Oaks, (except for one ticket I'm out on with HEAR THE GHOST).  I feel so foolish, incapable, and lowly to be within the SAME blog as YOU ole' wise one.  AS you can see,,,I HAVE indeed made my initial selections going back 45 days now and THEY are in print for everyone to chastise.  (SHAMEFULLY>>>>I have Proof Available)

So Dearest WISE ONE...ONLY "IF" I could now cancel my advance "LOTTO" tickets, I surly would, especially upon your most unpleasant disapproval.

I shall dread NOT....For the day of the OAKS and of the Derby is only a half moon hence forward.  I SHALL consult YOU and only YOU dearest master for my winning selections, of which YOU surly hold close to your mighty chest.  Those of us immortals LONG for your wisdom and shall wait late into the dawns light for your magical posts.

The fact that I blundered into last years Derby Superfecta, the Trifecta hence THREE, the OAKS/DERBY DD and an Early LOTTO exacta all combined for just short of $58,000, was surly a total and complete BLUNDER on my behalf.  Thus, I "LISTEN", I "WATCH", I "BET" was born.

Pretty lousy start reading THIS blog I must say.  

Good luck to you all!

OVERANALYZE @37/1 Exacta Boxed with Orb @ 12/1 with Revolutionary @ 15/1, with Itsmyluckyday @13/1

14 Apr 2013 5:54 PM
Mike Relva

longwaytomay

We need individuals like yourself posting here.

14 Apr 2013 5:57 PM
Mike Relva

Fugue for Tinhorns

Here's your answer,he's not boring.He brings alot to the table.

14 Apr 2013 6:01 PM
I LISTEN -I WATCH- I BET

I SHALL NOW SHUT THE HELL UP.

GOOD LUCK TO ALL INCLUDING YOU KY VET AND MIKE R!

14 Apr 2013 6:04 PM
KY VET

Very weak derby again this year.........Ask yourself who is coming up to the race good, but hasnt peaked......only 5 horse have a chance to win, off their form......

14 Apr 2013 6:06 PM
KY VET

no hard feelings listen.......good luck with those 16 horses.....i like one of them....

14 Apr 2013 6:08 PM
longwaytomay

I Listen-I watch-I bet,

Don't leave, just learn to ignore. I for one would like to hear your thoughts in the coming weeks. Hell, KY likes ONE of your horses, that has to make you feel good!

14 Apr 2013 6:15 PM
Little Bill

Mike, exactly what did he bring to the table with that 12:41 pm post?

A first time poster no less. No class.

14 Apr 2013 6:42 PM
JayJay

KY VET : Peak this, peak that... wake up, snooze, horse is broken or will be broken.  It's a handicapping blog, not figure out what happened to the horse after the race.  You need to post something about the horses before they race, UNLOCKING WINNERS.. that's the name of the blog.  Stop playing with your imaginary horses and get out of your cave, get some sun, talk to people lol.  BTW, how's your lotto ticket doing on Flashback ??

Mike : Have to agree, KY's here to make himself feel good about himself, and for him, that requires slamming other people.  That's just how he is..

IL-IW-IB : Agree with longwaytomay, don't leave the blog, you're buying drinks if you hit on one of your tickets... you're not getting off that easy.

14 Apr 2013 7:46 PM
Forbidden Apple

Horse 1 and horse 2, why bother posting when you don't have enough confidence to even state their names?

14 Apr 2013 7:52 PM
Kevin

Love Mylute's work at Churchill.  NIce 1 mile breeze in a good time.  Experienced horse, improving.  Decent race at Churchill in his first start.  

Could easily turn into the wise guy horse.

14 Apr 2013 8:09 PM
predict

Does the "point system" results so far this year, actually leave any horses out that any of you think should have qualified this year. I can't name anyone I think that the point system has caused to be left out. I do think that the system could be improved by assigning points only to first place, and then instead of assigning an arbitrary amount for second, third and fourth, they should use a standard number of points deducted for each length or fraction thereof that a horse finshes behind the winner. This would more accurately label the performance of that horse in the race. For example a horse that finshes second by 10 lengths should not get the same number of points for second that a horse that finshed second by a half length. If they deducted 10 points for example for each length that horse is behind first place , in the above example, using 100 points for first, the first second place horse mentioned above would get 50 points and the second second place horse mentioned would get 90 points. I think this would actually give the points some merit as a handicapping tool, to assess the performance of a horse. But, all in all, I like the point system, and think it provided for some good prep races this year. I just wish I would of had a better prep season at the betting window. I haven't built up a stash of cash to wager on the Derby, so I will have to work very hard starting now, to come up with some profitable bets in the Derby.

14 Apr 2013 8:10 PM
KY VET

cant tell names apple.....cant tell antone who i am....sorry, cant say why.............i have friends that read this blog, keeping them updated.............is that ok sir?

14 Apr 2013 8:35 PM
Mike Relva

I Listen I watch I Bet

No one is trying to tell you to leave.

14 Apr 2013 8:36 PM
Secreteriat

I am alive in pool one with Goldenscents and Normandy Invasion over and under the field. Does anyone know what happens if two of the six horses in the field finish one two?Does that mean that Golden and Normandy have to finish 3rd?

Many thanks

14 Apr 2013 8:42 PM
KY VET

I LISTEN............please dont leave.....i need to know the 12 horses you like in the preakness!

14 Apr 2013 8:44 PM
KY VET

sec........it means your bet is no good.....

14 Apr 2013 8:46 PM
Mary Zinke

Oh my, what's this latest intrigue?  Could be code for he's ugly--no, not a chance. Or, significant other googles the cheater's name daily--possibly. Or, this--found him !

www.youtube.com/watch

14 Apr 2013 9:07 PM
KY VET

i dont drink.....never did....

14 Apr 2013 9:39 PM
KY VET

update on coldcuts..........currently recieving shock treatments.....they are showing him mdn races....and turning the juice on when they show the twin spires.........lets hope this works....................................MAIDENSINTHEDERBY.com

14 Apr 2013 9:43 PM
KY VET

OMG!!!!! pim race 11 !!!! WHOLLY GOD!!!!!! WATCH THIS RIDE!!!!!!!! the most AMAZING THING YOULL EVER SEE!!!!!!! THE HORSE WON!!!!!!! YOU WILL NOT BELIVE YOUR EYES!!!!!!!! yesterdat the 13th race 11

14 Apr 2013 9:56 PM
Mary Zinke

How vain. I never said who.

14 Apr 2013 10:15 PM
I LISTEN -I WATCH- I BET

SECRETERIAT...

All of the #24 POOL horses are considered as a single horse.  In the event 1, 2 or more finish ahead of your picks, they are treated just like an entry.  All other horses move up accordingly.

Good Luck!

The Lotto Boy

14 Apr 2013 10:37 PM
I LISTEN -I WATCH- I BET

JAY JAY,

It's always my pleasure to buy rounds for everyone, even on the days that I get my ass kicked.  Horse racing is a wonderful enterprise with AMAZING animals.  One would hope that both pros and novices could equally enjoy the greatest two minutes in sports.  Yes I know...there are many who get angry on the big days when we stand behind someone new who is trying to put cash into a non-cash voucher only machine.  This my friends is the perfect opportunity to "teach" and not chastise.  When betters leave the sport because of rude and obnoxious people, ultimately we ALL pay the price.  Larger takeouts, smaller fields and more bad press.  For me personally, I love being with my friends, giving high fives when ANY of them win and with a little skill and a TON of luck finish on December 31'st with a nice profitable bottom line.  I must say that I'm feeling pretty good going into the Oaks and Derby with my bets.  As long as I don't have that "ONE" mysterious and unnamed horse of the "rich" guy, I'm pretty confident that I'll hit all of my 16 picks ahead of his!  It's NOT "how" you get there, it's that you actually arrive and enjoyed the journey.

14 Apr 2013 11:16 PM
Sail On

Bluegrass: unimpressive.

Arkansas: a bust

I do not expect any of those horses to be in contention in the Derby.

I still thing Verrazano is the class in the Derby. he has enough speed to get out in front of the pack and press whoever is the speed, should speed even present itself in the Derby. He didn't even see Normandy Invasion coming on, and if he did he would have had plenty of run in him to keep the lead.

For me the issue is who will place and show. Its still early for hard decisions.

14 Apr 2013 11:58 PM
predict

Sail On,

If Itsmyluckyday goes for the lead, and suppose it's a wet track, will Super Ninety Nine go with him, and they go in 1:09 and change, can Verrazano stay with them and still keep going after a mile and an eighth. And how does Govenor Charlie enter into this equation? And then Normandy Invasion unleashes his run in the stretch, can he catch them all? And will Java's War run at Churchill as he has in his last two? Not to mention the newly relaxing Goldencents, whose jockey says he will go a mile and a half, and enters with a much better last race time than the East coasters. If you are so sure of who is going to win already, you are well ahead of me, because this years group does not present a clear winner to me, I'm not sure Verrazano can even beat Orb or Lines of Battle for that matter. These are just some of the questions that drive us all nuts trying to figure out, yes there is the issue who will run second and third, but to who?

15 Apr 2013 1:36 AM
Rusty Weisner

Plod Boy Phil,

Similar stalking trip, similar points of call, caught by horse further off the pace near the wire.

15 Apr 2013 7:34 AM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Goldencents vs Verrazano Goldie already had a speed duel in one race with Flashback Verrie has had none.

If you think Oneil has got that completely out of his system well that is your opinion.

Goldie and Verrie will take a lot of money I hope Goldie is very low odds I am pretty sure Verrie will be 1st or 2nd choice, and could go off at reasonable odds like Bodie did last year.

A lot of neophytes will be told about foundation and Oneil winning the derby last year thats great news to me especially if it affects the odds.

Goldies jockey says goldie will run 1.5 miles so wattya expect him to say that he is a miler that beat 3yos in the SA Derby of which there aleady is precidence(2010)

15 Apr 2013 7:44 AM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Goldie vs Verrie Beyer shud stick by his figures and since goldie ran a 105 increasing his previous figure and Verrie backtracked to a lowly 95 he shud pic Goldie.

Another speed horse Itsmyluckyday has backtracked since pairing his two top figures early in the year so he should be high odds in the KD in the Beyer methodology.Gov Charlie broke a 30 yo track record and was assigned a 95 if he wins Beyer and his cohorts will receive a lot of questions about the ajustments they made to the Govs figures after a record breaking performance.Falling Sky dosent have the numbers the others have that run near the front.S99 and Uncaptured in Beyers world have not impressed with their recency.Palice Malice on the otherhand has run TWO good races but was caught inside in the LD and lost all chance in that race.

Oxbow will be high odds in the Derby after the experiment in  Arkansas to get him to relax more early in the race.Black Onyx and Vyjack while ran near the front in previous races they have not shown by their races that they are quick and fast enuff to be more than pressers in the KD.

The rest of the field have raced off the pace for the majority of their races.

15 Apr 2013 8:05 AM
Coldfacts

Footbridge finished last and I have just finished consuming a large plate of crow.  He back out of it by the half mile in what were modest fractions.

Could his poor performance be related to the track? Post-race reports will tell.

Although I did not view Palace Malice as the likely winner he ran far better than I had expected off short rest. Those who liked him got a bad beat as I though he was home.

AS specified in a previous post, when Mr. McPeek was busy referring to Verrazano as freak, he would have been rushing to fine tune his program for his colt Java’s War as he ran a big race in the TBD.

War Academy was pulled up and walked off. I hope he is OK. In a previous post I highlighted concerns for the colt and doubted whether he would exit the race sound. Horses from overbred stallions are less likely to make the Derby field and if they do, they are usually none factors. Giant’s Causeway bred 194 mares in 2009 and it appears he will be without a Derby starter.

Dan’s Legacy is just outside the top 20. His sire Medaglia D’ Oro also bred 194 mares. If Dan’s Legacy does not draw into the field his sire Medaglia D’ Oro will also be without a starter.

Who would back Dan’s Legacy with confidence if he draws into the race?

Mr. Pletcher has four in the Derby and will account for 25% of the field yet again. He rarely wins when he has so many starters but I hope 2013 will be an exception as I really like Revolutionary.

On to Louisville!

15 Apr 2013 8:13 AM
Rusty Weisner

Two groups, in order of preference:

Orb, Revolutionary, Java's War, Normandy Invasion, Will Take Charge

Verrazano, Itsmyluckday, Palace Malice, Goldencents, Govenor Charlie, Oxbow

Race day I'll have to try to make a decision whether I like the horses near the lead or off the pace.  Last year I only took the ones likely to be near the pace after two track records were set on Oaks day.

Baffert wouldn't really run Super99, would he?

15 Apr 2013 8:35 AM
Pedigree Ann

Rusty - looking at Java's War's pedigree, I don't see it as 'turfy.'

War Pass was a dirt horse - he won the Breeders' Cup Juvie at Monmouth and the Champagne at Belmont - with a dirt pedigree. This is his first crop and his offspring have not shown any preference for turf. Are you perhaps reading him as 'War Front,' who HAS sired a number of turf horses?

The only turf element in JW's pedigree is his damsire Rainbow Quest. His dam won on turf because that was the only surface she was tried on, but HER dam recorded half of her 10 wins on dirt and it is a pretty much a dirt American family that produces horse who are also capable on turf, rather like the second damsire Explodent did.

15 Apr 2013 10:31 AM
Rusty Weisner

Pedigree Ann,

re: Java's War's "turfy" pedigree.

I am just regurgitating a near consensus here.  Everywhere I've read about him they say the same thing.  For my part, given his performances on turf and dirt, that's enough.  

15 Apr 2013 10:40 AM
Rusty Weisner

Java's War reminds me of Dullahan.  Never won on dirt.  Not putting him on top.

15 Apr 2013 12:26 PM
Ranagulzion

papillon 14 Apr 2013 2:43 PM

I enjoyed reading your post ...good stuff, although I don't agree with your conclusion that Orb is 10 lenghts better than Verrazano and company (you seem to ignore Itsmyluckyday ...great miscalculation my friend). In fact it might be quite the reverse. You need to remember how the performance of the Todd Pletcher's filly Dreaming of Julia right-sized Orb's Florida Derby performance on the same track same day. Hear me Pal ...DoJ is not Verraano's equal ...that colt toyed with the opposition in the Wood Memorial hence Johnny V's reluctance to commit to Orb.

As for the Arkansas Derby, the time of the race means little in assessing the chances of the winner, Overanalyze. What needs to be taken from that race is that Overanalyze has begun to flourish and will be improving going into the Derby. Many are impressed with Normandy Invasion yet they forget the Remsen in which Overanalyze eyeballed him and held him off, not to mention being superior in pedigree for the entire Triple Crtown series.

I agree that Orb looks terriic and the connections are consumate old chool professionals ...making things very interestig but Verrazano is king kong right now and Todd Pletcher could in all likelihood pull off an unheard of Derby trifecta.

There is a strong possibility that the points system has thrown us a paceless Derby and that will only suit "Big V" more ...take that into consideration.

15 Apr 2013 12:41 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Re Javas War his trainer after winning the BG had a lot of questions to answer and I  read that he thought from the begining he would run on AW and Turf.

He already had a race over the surface and after viewing the early odds I picked him on here to defeat Palice Malice head to head with PLOD & VET.

Going forward with his running style he will need a Mine that Bird type of trip to win(and I have said that it wont happen again.

Thats the only way MTB improved so much time and figurewise to win the Derby in 2009.He ran the shortest distance around the track and only ran hard 3/8ths of a mile.

Leparoux is not a bad jockey for JW but it would surprise me if he wins, an in the money finish is another matter.

Giacomo won Too but there was a pace meltdown by colts that couldnt maintain their speed at that point in their lives and they ALL faded.

Monarchos was just the best that year.

Last to first wont happen in the KD IMO.

15 Apr 2013 12:52 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Ranagulzion

   Pletcher horses might be the Super High Five.

I Listen I watch I Bet

   I enjoyed your posts, and congrats on the big Derby win last year.

15 Apr 2013 1:10 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Keep your powder dry

   Very good picks, and congrats to all of the others that did well, too many to mention.

Plod Boy

    Thanks I appreciate it.

15 Apr 2013 1:14 PM
KY VET

pletcher 4 entrants......20 horses..........coldcuts....20 percent.....not 25 percent........cant get anything right huh?

15 Apr 2013 3:11 PM
KY VET

no speed in the derby?......keep thinking that! 20 horse= fast pace..........

15 Apr 2013 3:12 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

The colts that need the lead to win I hope they draw inside the ones that can rate, and they will be helped if they draw outside the need the lead types.

These are colts that have their best chance if they try to take the lead I will let this be a fielders choice on the blog because its not a science, and a bad break could kill any potential chance.

PS there are NO Trinnibergs or Bodemeisters in the field today(points list), at least not yet from all the preps we have seen.

15 Apr 2013 3:38 PM
papillon

out of curiosity, i thought i would compare all of the 1 1/8 derby final times with the heat and humidity the horses running experienced in them.

quick guide to temperature and humidity--humidity makes hot weather feel hotter, and colder weather feel colder. for animals that cool their bodies by sweating (like humans and horses), as humidity increases, the rate of perspiration evaporation decreases (meaning you can't cool down as well when it is humid)--however, the colder the temperature, the cooler you remain, and the less you need to perspire, and while the evaporation rate of perspiration in cold but humid conditions is slower than in non-humid conditions, the colder you will feel so, the less you will need to perspire...)

as heat increases, performance for equal effort decreases--this is because as temperatures rise heart rate, respiratory rate, body temperature and thermal burden all rise too--while recovery rate declines (i.e. it takes longer to recover from the same effort at a higher temperature than a lower temperature). the higher the humidity in hot weather, the lower the temperature has to be to produce this negative effect (the opposite is true for cold temperatures).

at 80 degrees, and 40-100% humidity, the result is ever quicker fatigue (the consequences get more severe as temperatures rise).  

estimated drop in performance based on temperature alone:

60 degrees = 1% drop

65 degrees = 3% drop

70 degrees = 5% drop

80 degress = 12% drop

85 degrees = 20% drop

the ideal temperature for performance is 50 degrees (performance begins to increase below 60 degrees, peaks at 50 degrees, and continues at an increased, but diminishing level until 32 degrees, where it begins to decline rapidly again)

now the races:

sunland park derby (which is also at about 4000 feet above sea level, so the air resistance is much lower than for any other race): final time 1:47.54, temperature 48, humidity 16 (no drop in performance from attributable to weather; increase in performance attributable to both altitude and weather (almost 20% to weather alone)

fl derby: final time 1:50.87, temperature 71, humidity 63 (5%-10% drop in performance attributable to weather)

la derby: final time 1:50.28, temperature 66, humidity 71 (1%-5% drop in performance attributable to weather)

wood: final time 1:50.27, temperature 44, humidity 36 (3%-5% increase in performance attributable to temperature).

santa anita derby: final time 1:48.76, temperature 65, humidity 60 (3% drop in performance attributable to weather)

blue grass: final time 1:50.27, temperature 48, humidity 64 (1%-3% increase in performance attributable to weather).

track depth will also aid or hinder performance, but it isn't easy to find this information out--you'll just have to take andy beyer or thorograph or bris's word for track speed variant on a given day to guestimate it.

make of this information what you will.

15 Apr 2013 4:19 PM
Mike Relva

Ranagulzion

Still banging the drum for Pletcher? Nice. Will tell you what I stated months ago,neither he or Baffert will win the Derby. Try looking at Shug's horse.

15 Apr 2013 4:45 PM
papillon

ranagulzion (hope i spelled that right!)

if you like overanalyze, and believe that dreaming of julia's performance on fl derby day depicted the true speed of the track and that wasn't just a freakish outlier not only on the day but for the horse--then how can you justify how closely that turtle frac daddy was to overanalze?

if doj's time was a true reflection of the speed at GP that day, then the fl derby was pathetically slow, and frac turtle needs to be entering races against arabians, not thoroughbreds, since he was 18 lengths slower than orb's apparently pathetic time.

and since frac turtle ran almost the same race in the ark as he did in the fl, then how does that flatter overanalyze, who? frac turtle is slow--his pps scream, I"M A TURTLE, EVERY RACE I'VE RUN HAS BEEN IN TURTLE TIME...

i agree that it is sketchy comparing horses to each other who've never run against each other, but if horse A has run against both horse B and horse C, you can get some idea of how horse B will fair against horse C based on how both faired against A--it not infallible and admittedly it works better with older horses who have more races against each other to go by, but in the tea-leaf reading that is ky derby forecasting, i've found it more reliable than beyers, closkers reports, and consensus.

comparing performances between common competitors is how i evaluate raw race times and pace-lines and order of finish of horses who haven't run against each other.

i haven't done this with the west coast horses yet, but with them its going be tricky since the common horses that raced against east coasters did so in shorter races--whereas frac turtle was the perfect having run in two 1 1/8 derbies.

or me this all just academic, i don't put money on the derby anymore, or on three year olds for that matter unless its a few bucks on a long shot, cuz ya never know...these days, it's 4-year olds and up for me, and no races in which there is a horse that i have very strong feelings about, either way--too easy to end up betting with your heart and not your head in those races.

good luck with your picks--a word of caution about pletcher though: at gulfstream he is a 30% trainer; at churchill he is a 6% trainer...

15 Apr 2013 5:42 PM
Mike Relva

KY Vet

What's your opinion regarding Shug's horse?

15 Apr 2013 5:47 PM
JerseyBoy

You can make anything you want of statistics.

So let us try a little game.

Let us look at the year 2012 and examine the total number of mares covered by stallions who covered 20 or more mares. The total number of mares covered by those stallions was 27503.

Some of the stallions covered more than 149 mares. These stallions covered a total of 2289 mares.

Their percentage of the total is 8.3%.

This means they have only an 8.3% chance to produce a Classic winner. The other stallions have a 91.7% chance.

See URL.

This took less than 20 minutes to put together.

This analysis can be done for any year, but it would be a waste of time. It is irrelevant anyway.

(Stallions covering fewer than 20 mares were ignored for purposes of simplicity).

URL:

jockeyclub.com/information.asp

15 Apr 2013 5:50 PM
Rusty Weisner

papillon,

People are going to say you're nuts, but I think humidity is a big factor, just from anecdotal experience.  The 2011 Derby was a deep, slow tiring track and the weather that day was heavy with humidity, from rain that managed to hold off till after the race.  

15 Apr 2013 6:07 PM
Rusty Weisner

papillon,

Use Super99 as a yardstick.  

15 Apr 2013 6:08 PM
Rusty Weisner

CHIEF PICAWINNA,

"PS there are NO Trinnibergs or Bodemeisters in the field today(points list), at least not yet from all the preps we have seen."

I think this is true.  I'd guess Govenor Charlie would be on the lead, but he doesn't lack for pedigree (from what I've heard).

15 Apr 2013 6:09 PM
Plod Boy Phil

"Oh, nobody says that about you, behind your back, as far as you know"

-Caddyshack

15 Apr 2013 6:35 PM
El Kabong

Plod Boy Phil,

That was perfect.

15 Apr 2013 8:43 PM
El Kabong

Papillon,

My brother and I have often said that tracks should post the depth of grade when the trackters go out. We've days where the speed is crushing them, which is typical at our track. Then the John Deers make a run before a race and poof! Closers have a field day. I wish they would post the grade if they're going to change the surface. It's a matter of disclosure that should be available. Sloppy Sealed, Dry Trench.

15 Apr 2013 9:07 PM
KY VET

Mike.....im gonna have to pass on him.....orb peaked already.....

15 Apr 2013 9:45 PM
KY VET

Update from the mental hospital........Coldcuts refusing all meds..........was heard demanding "i need LASIX! i need LASIX!"  over and over...........

15 Apr 2013 10:23 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

I also think we should be better informed about the weather and track conditions. Remember when they said the Derby track was like peanut butter? Of course they didn't tell us pre-race, just post race. I think the announcer should tell us ahead of time and I'm fine with the food analogies. "Welcome to a couple of great days of facing folks. The weather is chili today and hot tamale. The track is like refried beans with cheese and salsa on top."

15 Apr 2013 11:16 PM
Little Bill

Now that's some pretty funny stuff Vet.

15 Apr 2013 11:38 PM
JerseyBoy

For what it is worth, here are the Timeform 3yo rankings as of April 14:

125p VERRAZANO

124 ORB

123 BEHOLDER

123 NORMANDY INVASION

122+ DREAMING OF JULIA

122 EMOLLIENT

122 ITSMYLUCKYDAY

122 JAVA'S WAR

121+ VIOLENCE

120 CLEARLY NOW

120 GOLDENCENTS

120 OVERANALYZE

120 SHANGHAI BOBBY

120 VYJACK

119 LET EM SHINE

118 CHARMING KITTEN

118 FLASHBACK

118 PALACE MALICE

118 REVOLUTIONARY

16 Apr 2013 9:20 AM
JerseyBoy

Note that the horse at the top of the Timeform list, Verrazano, was sired by More Than Ready, a sire who covers mares in both America and Australia.

16 Apr 2013 9:41 AM
Mike Relva

KY Vet

Thanks

16 Apr 2013 11:23 AM
Ranagulzion

Mike Relva,

If yuor predictions were based upon true handicapping I'd take you seriously but i see that you make selections based a lot upon dislike for certain trainers instead of considering the merits of the horse.

papillion,

I like your well reasoned academic approach. However, regarding Overanalyze, why not rate him against Normandy Invasion instead of "Frac Turtle"(LOL). Overanalyze has demonstrated back class to run with the 3YO elite and is just about finding form ...the running time of the Arkansas Derby alone wouldn't tell you that my friend.

16 Apr 2013 2:51 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Rusty Weisner I dont have a prediction for who I think will take the lead until I see where the whole field is starting from.

I dont think the Arkansas Derby showed how good Overanalyze is, I think it showed how bad the rest were such as Frac Turtle as you have named him.

Oxbow was testing a different tactic in the race and he didnt have a chance.

Out of Pletchers trainees Charming Kitten and Overanalyze are near the bottom if I was to rank them here is my mini list

Verrazano

Revolutionary Palice Malice

Overanalze

Charming Kitten.

Here is my mini list from the west coast

Govenor Charlie

Goldencents

The West was golden last year this year the luster has worn off and is more tarnish than shine.

PS Im not buying the 105 Beyer that Goldencents ran compared to the 101 that Ill Have Another ran in the SA Derby, rationality is not the Beyer methodology's strong suit.

16 Apr 2013 4:15 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Chief-

Speed figure guys across the nation are suddenly re-calculating their pars times, models and variants....

FYI, I'll Have's SA Derby Beyer figure was a 95.

16 Apr 2013 4:41 PM
Rusty Weisner

CHIEF PICAWINNA,

Standard disclaimers about post position.

Someone else christened him Frac Turtle, but I didn't like him either and still don't after his plodding second.  I don't like the whole Arkansas circuit, especially after losing money on Oxbow.  I was also hoping for him to take back, because I thought the track was unkind to speed; but he showed nothing late.  I don't care how many Derbies Lukas has won.  That was before my time and all I remember about him was the terrible use he made of Optimizer last year on the TC trail and the fact that he always has a lot of losers at long odds.

I made the same note about the 105/101 Beyers.  The West is bad this year; they were all terrible at Oaklawn.  But I'm not tossing Goldencents, anyway, just yet.  I think Goldencents and Flashback are pretty good.

I like Orb to single him in something inexpensive, around $50 -- maybe a Pick 3 or maybe in verticals, but I don't see a strong "single" in the Derby this year.  I'll have six other races to find a single in one or other of the late Pick 4s.  If it looks like conditions warrant it, I think I'm going to choose 7 or 8 horses for the Derby in Pick 4's and Pick 3s, weighted towards the speed.  I'm only going to try to cover three "closers", the ones I like best coming off the pace.

1. Orb

2. Revolutionary

3. Java's War

I don't like Normandy Invasion as much as these.  Like Alpha, he seems best at Aqueduct.

I'm going to stack it with speed and stalkers and hope to catch long odds there:

Palace Malice, Verrazano, Itsmyluckyday, Goldencents...and I really don't want to do it, maybe I'll think better of it:  Govenor Charlie.

I'm hoping for some odds on Palace Malice.  If there are good odds maybe I'd play him in exactas  with my top two closers, Orb and Revolutionary.

My ranking:

1. Orb

2. Palace Malice

3. Verrazano

4. Revolutionary

5. Itsmyluckyday

6. Goldencents

7. Java's War

8. Govenor Charlie

Hopefully I'll have the conviction to stick with just the top six on any multi-race ticket, because I don't think Java's War is going to win it and he's never won on dirt (like Dullahan, who I didn't like to win last year), while Govenor Charlie is just too much of a stretch coming off so few races, and out of Sunland, to boot...but, he supposedly has the pedigree for the distance and Baffert had another horse who was a mostly unaccomplished afterthought steal a Derby on the lead under the right conditions, (and I don't think he even had the pedigree): War Emblem.  But I hope I have the good sense to dump this horse.

16 Apr 2013 4:52 PM
Rusty Weisner

The 101 was the Derby.

94 for the Santa Anita I think, which he ran a second faster than Goldencents.

16 Apr 2013 4:56 PM
Plod Boy Phil

I have one early opinion on the Derby:  I will not bet Java's War with anyone's money, never mind my own. He rates 'none chance'.

16 Apr 2013 5:09 PM
Rusty Weisner

Plod Boy Phil,

That was just what I wanted to hear.

16 Apr 2013 6:23 PM
Rusty Weisner

I like Palace Malice a lot.  His Bluegrass was a winning move on dirt.

16 Apr 2013 6:25 PM
JayJay

Ranagulzion : So if it's a horse you like, the times don't matter, but other horses, they get destroyed by a filly ??  Come on man.  At least be consistent and stop the spins.

A note about Verrazano, JV picked him but I don't know if that's a good thing or not.  This horse is not automatic, he needs to be pushed, ridden.  I don't know if JV will truly be 100% to ride him hard through the long stretch at CD.  I don't see this horse taking JV for a ride at all, he'll need a strong jockey.  It's not really a concern for me because he's one of many I'm going to let beat me (if he can).  At least this gives you a ready made excuse if Verrazano doesn't win like you're predicting.

Sticking to my top four :  Orb, Will Take Charge, Mylute and Black Onyx.

16 Apr 2013 6:29 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Rusty Weisner It sounds like you have done all the preliminary work knowing who you like and dont like,If I was you I would stick with it and not do the same thing you did with Orb in the FD.

This is a hard game to beat, look at the bonehead thing I did in the Wood playing a Box instead of partial wheels for the super.

I think in the Derby you can be wrong on your primary bets and if you hedge properly come out close to even or not lose your entire bet,inotherwords being a good bettor is a premium quality in a 20 horse field, in the exotic pools and covering with other bets and even win place and show bets.

16 Apr 2013 6:31 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Plod Boy Phil just googled it and what I came up with was that Ill Have Another ran the 2012 SA Derby in 1.47.88 and got a 94 Beyer.

Goldencents ran the 2013 SA Derby in 1.48.76 and got a 105 Beyer.

My question to you as a methodologist that relies on numbers What is your opinion of this?

16 Apr 2013 6:35 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Plod Boy Phil one more question what do you think of Govenor Charlies Beyer of 95 when he broke a 30 year old track record,I think he should have got at least 100 using a method based on the track record what do you think?

16 Apr 2013 6:39 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Chief -

I'm looking at the PPs for the 2012 Preakness and the 2012 Belmont - each shows a 95 for his SAD (1 Beyer pt does not matter).

Raw time, despite what some here believe, is not truly representative of the effort unless it is placed w/in the context of the track variant on a particular day.  Final time based speed figures are driven by 'par times' for numerous class levels.  Each race of a card and how it's final time relates to 'par' for that level and distance, drives the variant.  If a track is playing fast all day as it relates to final times of the winners, the variant will adjust for it (same if a track is playing slow).  Of course,  making quality figures requires experience and expertise, else one be caught in a cookie cutter factory.

It's worth noting that with 3 yr olds,  faster is not necessarily better as it relates to overall development and well being.  It's likely that the strides I'll Have made in the Derby and Preakness compared to his previously established level may have caused 'the wheels to come off'.  

If final time speed figures were a guide for me,  I'd trust the professionals.

16 Apr 2013 6:50 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Rusty Weisner I like Palice Malice running style for the Derby that is why I rated him the same as Revolutionary on my Pletcher mini list.

His sire Curlin was one of the best horses of the last 20 years IMO and finished third in the KD(he was caught with a terrible inside trip post 2 as was Lookin at Lucky post 1 and last years bad trip from the inside was Union Rags and he was in 4.I knew when he drew that post with the rest of the field in their starting positions that my only bets on him were saver bets $1 exactas just in case.

16 Apr 2013 6:51 PM
Rusty Weisner

CHIEF PICAWINNA,

One thing interesting about Beyers is that, theoretically, they should be more trustworthy from Oaklawn, where everything is run on dirt at only a few distances.

16 Apr 2013 6:51 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

So what do you think about Govenor Charlies 95 Beyer on a track that I think only cards dirt races and he broke a 30 year track record.

I think the variant is too subjective because the track can change race to race it is dirt after all and the wind sun etc are constantly changing.

IMO when Beyer had the figures himself they were A LOT MORE VALUBALE for one because He was the ONLY one making the numbers and all he had to do was bet the overlays basically.

16 Apr 2013 7:02 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

When I view a high Beyer speed figure I like a conformation that being how many lengths did they win by and if it was a close finish the other horses previous figures come into play.

I have seen too many races to only agree with what is on the paper I form my own opinions eventhough I look at the figures I dont rely on them religously I use much more data points.

16 Apr 2013 7:07 PM
predict

Winner of the 2013 Kentucky Derby revealed now:

Frac Daddy

16 Apr 2013 7:08 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Plod who is SAD in your post

I'm looking at the PPs for the 2012 Preakness and the 2012 Belmont - each shows a 95 for his SAD (1 Beyer pt does not matter).

16 Apr 2013 7:08 PM
Plod Boy Phil

There were three track records broken at Sunland that day...grain of salt for all.

My point about experience and expertise is the final time figure makers must consider how assigned a figure to the winner fits into the context of all the other horses in the race.  That is why older claimers have long been used as the base-line.  

If you have not read 'Beyer on Speed', regardless of your current methodology, you have done yourself a disservice.

16 Apr 2013 7:12 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

BTW Union Rags KDerby trip from post 4 was not helped by his jockey Leparoux,that combination plus other data leading up to the race lead me to believe he wasnt going to have a good day.

Some bloggers on this site predicted a triple crown for him and that he would win the Derby by 5-10 lengths.

If I pick a horse I dont care if he wins by a nose that is the nature of the game.

16 Apr 2013 7:13 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Santa Anita Derby (SAD)

16 Apr 2013 7:26 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Predict -

Let me guess:

- Route win at CD as a 2 yr old

- Dual Qualifier: weighted w/in 10 lbs of the divisional high weight and a DI under 4.00.

There was a lot of many made by those following this scheme in the 90's.

Good luck.

16 Apr 2013 7:32 PM
Plod Boy Phil

correction: lot of money made

16 Apr 2013 7:58 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Plod Boy Phil I read that book years ago when I was still searching for a way to win consistently.His dreams of the use of satelites to track the horses seems likes sci-fi today.

Beyer is a very good writer that is why he got the gig at the Washington Post.As far as the figures its ALL ABOUT THE ODDS in any methodology to beat this game.

I use the exotic pools to increase the odds I get betting mostly on low priced horses to come in 1st or 2nd.

17 Apr 2013 9:25 AM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Plod Boy Phil we will see how one of the record breakers runs in the Oaks.

I hope she runs well and gets 4th in a blanket finish otherwise GC one of the other record breakers odds will drop,if she were to win I mean.

17 Apr 2013 9:27 AM
1:08 and change

Vet:

I was just looking at a picture of Verrazano.  I think his head might be a little big for a mile and a quarter?

17 Apr 2013 9:55 AM
1:08 and change

Winner winner chicken dinner...

All you need:

1. Vyjack

2. Palace Malice

3. Verrazano

4. Goldencents

5. Orb

6. Govenor Charlie

------------------

7. Mylute (? horse still for me)

8. Code West (if decides to run)

17 Apr 2013 10:10 AM
KY VET

Good news for COLDCUTS......he has been chosen to play the lead role in the sequel to BENJAMIN BUTTON......its kinda like the 1st movie, except instead of getting younger and younger........he gets stupider, and stupider...................congrats!

17 Apr 2013 12:08 PM
Forbidden Apple

Plod,

Why the sudden interest in Itsmyluckyday?

Papillon,

Thank you for posting that powerful warrior photo of Orb. He is always chomping at the bit, even during his races I have noticed him chomping, a very game animal.

I Listen I Watch I Bet,

Your response to the continued rude comments by KY Cheap Talker was accurate and warranted. This individual is creepy and is full of insults while picking zero winners of his own. He is always angry, and this time because his only live future ticket is a win bet on Normandy Invasion. Enough about that donkey. I have been a fan of Itsmyluckyday this entire year. What is it that you like about him? I found it interesting that you mentioned teaching others that do not know. I do this same thing when I'm at the races with my own friends and with strangers who are eager to learn about horse racing.

Cold Opinions,

The connections of Footbridge should not give in and give their horse lasix. The rest of the horse racing world needs to ban race day medications.

KY Cheap Talker,

I bet zero dollars on Fort Larned at 1/2, I'm simply a fan of the horse. Not everything is about gambling. And I had zero dollars in the win pool of the Bluegrass, so you are wrong again. You are rich, with insults and anger. I don't care about horse 1 or horse 2. I just find it odd that they don't have names. You most likely don't want to say who you are because of what you write. Your friends might not like you anynmore if they found out how you treat strangers and fellow horse racing fans.

Mike Relva,

Are you serious? What does this new friend of yours bring to the table? Orb has not peaked, make that decision for yourself.  The horse breathes fire and he is built for a fight at 1 1/4 miles.

17 Apr 2013 1:02 PM
1:08 and change

Vet:

Killing me man.  Lmao

17 Apr 2013 3:24 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Vet who is number one for the 2013 Kentucky Derby

17 Apr 2013 4:47 PM
Rusty Weisner

CHIEF PICAWINNA,

I put a morning line on the other thread.  Don't quibble with it; just getting the numbers to add up was a triumph.

You're not a subscriber to the Post, are you?

17 Apr 2013 4:51 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Rusty Weisner I never had a beef with the line you posted.No I dont subscribe to any newspaper(dinosaur scribble)I get my news from reading the web.

17 Apr 2013 5:14 PM
Little Bill

I think I figured out some IDs here.

Ky Vet-Hannibal Lecter

Coldfacts-Miggs

17 Apr 2013 5:43 PM
Mike Relva

Fugue for Tinhorns

Say what you will,but he thinks outside the box. He's not all about beyer figs. That gets boring in a hurry.

17 Apr 2013 6:39 PM
longwaytomay

1:08 and Change,

Two of your top six horses are not 100% healthy less than three weeks before the race. Not sure I could put those two on my tickets.

17 Apr 2013 6:40 PM
Forbidden Apple

I posted yesterday and again today, my comments were not put up. Yet KY Talker calls people stupid and idiots, and that gets printed.

17 Apr 2013 6:56 PM
Little Bill

Mike, I wasn't trying to slam anyone. I'm surprised you didn't see the humor in it, unless you didn't see the movie.

17 Apr 2013 7:11 PM
KY VET

like forbidden apple said about Animal kingdom...what has he won?  Black caviar...beside those 25 races...what did she win?.........

17 Apr 2013 7:22 PM
KY VET

Forbidden.....how many of the horses i said have peaked Not gone off form?..........answer- none.......oxbow...itsmyluckyday....etc............what are your thoughts on this?

17 Apr 2013 7:26 PM
KY VET

apple....its not about slamming....the coldcuts posts mdns to win stakes....dumb stuff.....people need to learn the right things......

17 Apr 2013 7:29 PM
Little Bill

Apple, Pete put out awhile back he usually sets the update to auto. Maybe it's just a glitch, not personal.

17 Apr 2013 7:42 PM
1:08 and change

Longway:

I ain't scurrrred.

Vet:

You never responded to my "Into Mischief's" vs. "Tapit's" wager. Guess it's too late now that one of yours is out.

17 Apr 2013 8:03 PM
KY VET

tapit!

17 Apr 2013 8:26 PM
KY VET

bad news......gov. charlie has hoof problem........good news, he hasnt had a heart attack.......

17 Apr 2013 8:29 PM
Forbidden Apple

Papillon,

Thank you for posting the powerful looking Orb photo. I like how this horse is always chomping on the bit and game, he's ready to breathe fire.

Plod,

Why the sudden interest in Itsmyluckyday?

17 Apr 2013 8:39 PM
Forbidden Apple

I Listen I Watch I Bet,

What do you like about Itsmyluckyday? Continue teaching when you are at the races, I do the same thing. Horse racing needs more people that are willing to be teacher's and not thugs like some people on this blog.

17 Apr 2013 8:45 PM
Forbidden Apple

Mike Relva,

What does KY Talker have to offer? All he does is insult and shout at other's while offering no winners. Peaked and just woke up are his best angles. Normandy Invasion is on his table. Listen to yourself, Orb has not peaked. This horse is strong, always fires a good race, and is built to love a 1 1/4 mile race on dirt.

17 Apr 2013 8:50 PM
Forbidden Apple

KY Talker,

I bet zero dollars on Fort Larned, simply a fan of this horse. I also had zero dollars in the win pool of the Bluegrass, you earned none of my money. You are rich, with insults and anger. I hope horse 1 wins for you. I just don't understand why you write about horse 1 and 2, no names. Your friends might not like you anymore if they knew how you treat other racing fans.

17 Apr 2013 8:57 PM
Forbidden Apple

KY Talker,

I think I was right about Animal Kingdom before his last race. People fell in love with this horse for winning the KY Derby and nothing else.

I still disagree with you on Itsmyluckyday. He ran second in the FL Derby and earned his needed points. Second is not bad, you like Normandy Invasion, Flashback, and Palice Malice for finishing second. This horse has not peaked. And I was never a fan of Oxbow. Who else peaked, Mr. Expert? Footbridge was never a contender, not one of my picks.

17 Apr 2013 9:14 PM
JayJay

lol at dumb stuff, this from the guy that bet futures money on a horse that won stakes next out after a maiden win.  List of maiden winners who won stakes next out :

Flashback

Vyjack

Revolutionary

Java's War

Govenor Charlie

All going to the derby...

FA : Just be glad you only have to engage him in a blog, imagine if you're actually talking to him in person ??  he'll drive you nuts with all his bs...  I see his type at the track all the time, the "know it all" but doesn't win.  They're loud early on in the day, then gets quieter and quieter towards the middle of the day, then starts whispering asking for money to make a bet at the end of the day...lol

17 Apr 2013 9:56 PM
KY VET

apple.....didnt you post that itsmyluckyday ran something like 17lengths worse? that he ran slow? now youre saying he ran good? its ok...youre not stupid......just a beginner......no crime in that.............continue to learn........youll get there!

17 Apr 2013 10:32 PM
KY VET

a horse race blog with a guy(jay jay)....that doesnt even use a form! we are supposed to take anything this guy says, seriously?  He tries to say, that he knows anything about this sport? why doesnt he try to learn something? get some tools.....funny!

17 Apr 2013 10:36 PM
Forbidden Apple

Yes he did run slow in the FL Derby, so did Orb. The times in nearly every prep race have been slow lately. So what? The KY Derby is the ultimate goal. I still like this horse after one off race. Not everyone is perfect like you. I see you looked past everything that I wrote, keep talking out of both sides of your big mouth.

17 Apr 2013 11:00 PM
JayJay

that's it ?  the form again ? no URL this time ??  lol

Who's the "we" ?  are they your "silent" friends that comes here to watch you make a fool of yourself ?   Btw, hows the imaginary horses?  did they sprout wings yet ?

I can tell you're serious, maybe a little too angry to type the extra dots hahaha

17 Apr 2013 11:18 PM
THE KEYMASTER

Ky Vet -

Loved your 8:29 post. Hilarious!

17 Apr 2013 11:41 PM
Mike Relva

Forbidden Apple

I don't get it.

18 Apr 2013 1:34 AM
Mike Relva

Forbidden Apple

Are we back again to the bashing of AK? How easy do you think it is to win the Derby? I know a walk in the friggin park,right?   You seem to live under the mirage that the horse was healthy his entire career. Please tell me it's only my imagination he was laid up eighteen months or so. No pass for that.  

I was probably on Orb before you.

18 Apr 2013 1:46 AM
Matthew W

Not sure I didn't just delete my post, so in case I just did, I will state, once more, my preference for Normandy Invasion, and if he runs like he did in New York, I like him big---I also like the Wood winner/Derby fave, and I also like Govenor Charlie....Goldencents is a real nice horse, and fast---I doubt he'll get the 1 1/4 , he'll insure this race will be won by a closer, and 'Normandy closed into a soft pace, making two moves and showing stamina in the lane---he may bounce off that huge race, but he's run two strong races this year, and he has that look of a Derby winner! I thought Gov Charlie got a low Beyer #, that horse has really improved, and I have heard talk that he's a load---foot pains and all, I like him to contend/'think he's a good horse, and Big V is a deserving favorite, but I love the way Normandy Invasion is coming into the race! I prefer a horse who runs in two-turn, graded races as a two year old, and it would not surprise me if Normandy Invasion goes off 2nd choice---I like him, and I like him on top!

18 Apr 2013 1:51 AM
Matthew W

In the 42 years of Triple Crown races I have seen, maybe two horses, Secretariat and Spectacular Bid, could have made up six lengths on Bodemeister from the 1/2 mile pole, like I'll Have Another did in The Preakness..... I said maybe.....

18 Apr 2013 1:59 AM
Mary Zinke

The Lexington group, besides filly Pure Fun, is kind of who knows, so I like Where's Dominic.

Where's Dominic, Pure Fun, Examen, Cerro.

18 Apr 2013 3:41 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Forbidden -

I'm not interested in betting the horse - remember,  it's 'upgrades only' for me.  My point was that Itsmyluckday may have one left in the tank, as his big pair was ~13 weeks before the Derby. This group as whole has not fired many races comparable to his, so there may be some value in him for those that have been on his back all along. My opinion that his next top effort even close to those two January efforts will set him even further back remains unchanged.

Good luck.

18 Apr 2013 8:08 AM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

If the Govenor has hoof problems hes off most of my tickets.I still like confirmation ,as in workouts for GC.I think the majority of these animals run with minor ailements and unlike the human athletes they cant comunicate this.

Just like the Europeans say the Americans have good blood but bad bone,I know most of you will know what this means, there is no need to go into a long discussion on commercial American breeding, and or stimulant usage by edge seeking American trainers.

18 Apr 2013 8:13 AM
Plod Boy Phil

JayJay -

'All going to the Derby",  except of course, the one that isn't.

Again, read, absorb, digest and hopefully comprehend the information at some level above an 8 yr old.

My point has been, from the beginning, that the deeper one goes into the spring, 3yo MSWs thrown directly in Graded Stakes race against horses that have recorded Graded Stakes wins is a losing proposition.  The majority of horses that accomplish the 'feat' do it as two yr olds and as young 3's when the fields are soft.

Here are facts regarding the list you provided in rebuttal:

Flashback - Feb 2 ($3.00), a four horse field w/out a single dirt winner.  No wins from the other three as of now.

Vyjack - Dec 9 ($3.10) not a Graded Stake race

Revo - Feb 2, ($3.50) all but 2 of the 8 did not have an Alw1x win or better to their credit. None have won a race since.

Java's War - Sept 12 ($5.40) an ungraded turf stake at LaD.

Good luck.

18 Apr 2013 8:32 AM
Plod Boy Phil

JayJay -

I forgot Gov Charlie.  Did you see the horses he beat there?  He too was the favorite, which puts the competition he was facing in context.

18 Apr 2013 8:34 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Mike-

Nicely done summarizing the entire theme of this and many Blogs like it - who named the horse first (golf clap).

18 Apr 2013 8:41 AM
Plod Boy Phil

JayJay-

Please disregard the completely unnecessary sentence ending with 'an 8 yr old'. It was a simply dreadful regression on my part.

A free dig offered as compensation.

Thanks

18 Apr 2013 9:02 AM
Coldfacts

Mary Zinke,

I do not know if you recall an exchange had rewarding the offspring’s of Giants Causeway in general and War Academy in particular?

I highlighted that they rarely make the Derby field and when they do they finish off the board. Many end up with issues that require them to be removed from training.

War Academy was pulled up in the AK Derby and his trainer has reported that they are unable to diagnose the problem that led to his poor performance.

I continue to be amazed that his offerings are purchased for hundred of thousands dollars in an attempt to secure a Derby contender. There are sufficient examples to deter prospective purchasers.

18 Apr 2013 9:08 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Thursday Aqueduct Race 4

2 Ghareeb (3-1): his two career starts were both on the wrong side of Speed favoring scenarios - the last race was very impressive from our perspective.  This talented colt, very 'green' thus far,  tries turf today.

18 Apr 2013 10:00 AM
1:08 and change

Let's start a pool...who will be the first one bashing on the DUDE after he wins the Charlestown Classic?

Mike,

Wouldn't throw Pletcher and Baffert under the bus just yet.  They are both loaded.

Lex Stakes:

River Rocks wire to wire followed by,

Wings of Fortune Sunbean Cerro

Coldcuts... Navarez in the ILL Dby?  You must be all over that one since he ran with Declans Warrior in FL huh?

18 Apr 2013 10:09 AM
1:08 and change

ILL Derby:

8-1 on Ground Transport will be highway robbery.

18 Apr 2013 10:12 AM
Mike Relva

Phil

I don't play golf. lol

18 Apr 2013 10:49 AM
Mike Relva

1:08 and change

Can't argue with that. Good luck with your Derby selections.

18 Apr 2013 10:51 AM
1:08 and change

Mike:

Thanks man.  You as well.

18 Apr 2013 10:54 AM
1:08 and change

Ky Vet -

Loved your 8:29 post. Hilarious!

I second that.  Crying, I was laughing so hard.

18 Apr 2013 11:15 AM
Forbidden Apple

I thought Orb peaked already? I had Orb at #5 as of the Feb. 5 Derby Dozen. Why does that matter?

Don't count Ron the Greek out of contention just yet.

18 Apr 2013 11:39 AM
Forbidden Apple

Plod,

Since you have never posted a top 10 or even 5 list, who do you like even a little bit? I know you liked Vyjack earlier in the year. I would not touch this horse since his last start and the current problems in the barn.

Itsmyluckyday is sitting on a big race or he is not sound, only the trainer knows for sure.

18 Apr 2013 11:54 AM
Rusty Weisner

Govenor Charlie has some minor foot issue.  I want any excuse to toss this horse from consideration as a possible winner.

18 Apr 2013 12:10 PM
Rusty Weisner

Plod Boy Phil,

I'm guessing that Java's War is a big downgrade with you and Palace Malice a corresponding upgrade.  Correct me if I'm wrong.  In any case, that's the way I'm playing it.

I'd be interested to hear your opinion on the Arkansas contenders.  That track, and the times and the Beyers, has really confounded me (and others, including horses).

18 Apr 2013 12:17 PM
Little Bill

Watsdachances that the fav gets beat in the 8th at Kee today.

18 Apr 2013 12:38 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Forbidden-

I've posted Derby contenders as they've become upgrades and removed them when dropping back down to 'neutral'.  Over the last couple of months, my 'list' has included Orb, Codewest, Vyjack and Palace Malice.  In the last few weeks, there have been a couple of additions, a deletion, and a few new downgrades.

Vyjack, a non-winning bold upgrade for me,  will retain that grade having been on the wrong side of a modestly speed favoring scenario in the Wood. We do not use whatever may have gone amiss with him physically in the race as an excuse for not winning.  That said, I believe the connections would be better served giving the horse two additional weeks of recovery by pointing for the Preakness. If he does run in Ky,  I'll have no choice but include him.

I disagree completely with the notion that Plesa,  or any trainer for that matter, 'knows' what it's horse is going to do.  Working well, eating well, acting well, etc are no guarantee of a good performance in a race. In fact, I'd lean more often to thinking that they as far less objective than the serious handicapper regarding their horses.

On the other end of the spectrum,  did the Pletcher camp have any idea that Dreaming of Julia would run out of her skin in the Oaks? I think that if they did 'know',  she'd have been in the Fla Derby instead.

18 Apr 2013 1:03 PM
Mary Zinke

Coldfacts, Yes, I recall your comment about Giant's Causeway offspring, especially since Creative Cause was my Derby colt last year.

I do find the statistics of some interest, as long as all of the offspring are considered, in any study of any sire, but I go by how the individual runs once it starts racing.

War Academy was my third choice, so show pick, in the Arkansas Derby. My only win pick so far this week is by Midnight Lute.

It doesn't surprise me that those with the funds will spend huge amounts to purchase a future Derby contender,since the Derby is the premier race for 3 year olds, and still prestigious despite any negativity about the sport, but what about homebreds, Coldfacts? Do you like their chances better?

I have to say that I am way less into the sires or pedigrees this year. To me, taking the ones with the best 9f finishes, considering overall time*,final fraction, faster pace faced,competition faced, is more important.  

18 Apr 2013 1:05 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Arkansas Derby:

We had no upgrades or downgrades going in. We have no upgrades or downgrades coming out.

18 Apr 2013 1:19 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Ghareeb update -

Revise 'green' to read: just plain stupid.

18 Apr 2013 2:31 PM
derbygal

Lexington: Going with Pure Fun, Cerro, Sunbean, General Election.

18 Apr 2013 3:55 PM
KY VET

Hurt horses win everyday......but im gonna issue a warning.......Pure FUN isnt right.....lets see how long she lasts..........sunbean is the choice for lexington....

18 Apr 2013 5:05 PM
KY VET

Plod......i really really dont get this.........how is vyjack upgraded for sitting right off pace? he was in great position, and ran well........but how is normandy invasion not a big upgrade? He ran great........i want answers!

18 Apr 2013 5:08 PM
KY VET

I really dont understand how verrazzano didnt win by more.....people on here say he was playing....not all out.........i disagree....he broke really great, got a dream pace, dream trip....and beat normandy by only 3/4 of a length....v's jock was asking him...strong hand ride.....im really shocked, and cant figure out why he didnt draw away.......only 95 beyer......no real excuse for him not going faster.........normandy has an excuse....the pace was crawling...he made big move, too big of move on backstretch, and was hammerlocked by the jock......then they got the jump on him........he ran an amazing race, and how people dont have him in their top picks is amazing......he is coming up to derby perfect.......my choice derby day.........

18 Apr 2013 5:16 PM
Mary Zinke

It's not amazing, KY. People like stakes winners for top Derby picks. GL to you--you seem to be a visionary. I'll think about NI's chances. When any horse doesn't win by much, I see these comments from its fans or backers that say it didn't need to blow the field away, just win.

18 Apr 2013 5:30 PM
1:08 and change

Vet:

The horse has not won a race since Nov 2nd of 2012.  He's been close twice but has not won.  IMO will make a big move and flatten out in Derby. Finish somewhere in middle of the pack.

18 Apr 2013 5:48 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Mary I think your right Vet seems to be a visionary,Hey Vet what brand of eyeglasses do you wear so I can buy me a pair and upgrade my visionary skills before betting my money on the Kentucky Derby.

18 Apr 2013 6:06 PM
Mary Zinke

I meant that KY sees which horses are improving or which race set-ups are best for his picks, not anything mean by what I said.  I'll try to post Derby Trial picks, since I said I'd participate for every Derby points prep. I may have to miss one.

18 Apr 2013 6:22 PM
KY VET

When a horse breaks last, why doesnt the jockey just ask him for everything, whip him up to the lead after a furlong? we all know why...right?  well, all anyone has to do, is watch the REMSEN.........the move normandy put forth.....was amazing! WATCH THE RACE! Only very very good horses have this move......but, it was way too fast of a move.....sure, he caught up to them very quickly.....but it was the reason he hung at the end.......i read a poster that said he didnt like to pass horses! ANY horse that would make that move, would get tired......he lost? how did he lose? head bobbed....what does that inch mean?.........what a dumb statement! he won before the wire...just got bobbed......doesnt change a thing if he won.......then look at the time! does it occur to anyone how fast that race was? which 2 yr old race was faster?   stupid comments! non winner of two.......look at the race!...........has the horse FIRED? what is his best? the remsen! he lost all chance in the risen star, and still lost by less than 2......then watch the wood.....youll see him almost run over horses on the backstretch! the jock had to strangle him! and flew home to lose to the top rated horse with the perfect trip! who ran the better race?     really? you dont understand why?   unreal!

18 Apr 2013 6:52 PM
KY VET

Flashback run 104..........overanynalze and java run less than 90!   and i have to hear flashback is a bum..........the stupider, keep getting stupider! Do you people really bet real money?.........you like black onyx? black onyx this.....black onyx that!  just simply retarded!

18 Apr 2013 6:56 PM
KY VET

oh....have a nice day!

18 Apr 2013 6:57 PM
Plod Boy Phil

VET -

I'm not sure why I'm answering again since I explained the racing flow stance on this race already. To all those as tired of reading it as I am of writing it,  your patience is appreciated.

- Vyjack was a bold upgrade off his ultra-impressive win in the Gotham.

- Our figure for the Wood indicates it was only modestly speed favoring.  In speed favoring races,  we look to upgrade all those runners whose beaten lengths at the first two calls combined are greater than the race winner's beaten lengths at the first two calls combined.  Therefore,  Normandy Invasion and Vyjack qualify for upgrades.  Since Vyjack was bold going in, he'll remain bold on the basis of the modest upgrade he receives for the Wood.  Normandy Invasion was 'neutral' for us going into the Wood,  thus he will receive just a regular upgrade.

-In speed favoring races, the only horse we'll downgrade is the 1st call leader, and any horse lapped on that leader (less than a length back).  Since Verrazano was neither, he'll be given a 'neutral' grade.  If our figure indicated that the Wood was as speed favoring as some believe, then even Verrazano would be a possible upgrade since he was not the early leader.  It was not,  thus, he is not.

18 Apr 2013 7:30 PM
Plod Boy Phil

VET-

While we're on the topic of Normandy,  let's look at his beaten lengths compared to Vyjack:

NI) 5,  3,   3.5,  <1

Vy) 4, >3,   1.5,  ~1

18 Apr 2013 7:39 PM
KY VET

plod......thats crazy......palice malice was an upgrade, and didnt even run....pretty much pulled up in whole stretch......how slow does a pace have to be? you really cant comprehend that was as slow of a pace as possible, and normandy almost won? you need a better system......if that isnt a bold upgrade....i dont know what is.................rediculous!

18 Apr 2013 7:39 PM
KY VET

WATCH THE RACE!!!!!!!!!! dont try to tell me they were together......lets just drop it......good luck......

18 Apr 2013 7:41 PM
Plod Boy Phil

VET-

He can be bold for you.

That's what matters, right ?  Your opinion and your money.

No need worrying so much about what we do or how we do it. It's not for you.  Not a problem.

Good luck.

18 Apr 2013 7:49 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Mary I guess you interpreted my interpretation of your post towards Vet as mean.

BTW if there was a circle of people and I whispered something to the first person and told him to tell the next person and so forth by the time it got to the other end of the circle I would bet that what that person told me was much different than what I told the first person.

Vet the one knock I have against Normandy Invasion is he has only run well at Aqueduct his home track.

He didnt do anything in races at Belmont or Turfway.

18 Apr 2013 7:54 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

I do not believe there is a one size fits all numerical representation of a horses performance on one track compared to the other.

As the people closest to the horses will tell you their are definitely preferences just like us humans, some of them like certain surfaces some of them dont.That includes wet tracks, deep tracks, and hard as concrete tracks.

IMO the circumstances are different for Every single race so an undeafeated horse who has run on multiple surfaces shouldnt be taken lightly because he has a better chance of liking the surface on Derby Day than one who has only run well on ONE surface.

18 Apr 2013 8:01 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Im sorry my bad I meant Fgs I was thinking of the other Brown trainee Balance the Books who didnt run a lick at either Turfway or Keeneland look for him back on the turf where Brown gets most of his stkes quality performers.

He has already won a Breeders Cup race at a mile on the turf.

18 Apr 2013 8:05 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

IMO speed figures represent speed at the distance not ANY TRACK.

18 Apr 2013 8:11 PM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

Beyers are based on track records they should always publish the raw figure as well as the adjusted final figure.I know why they dont and all of you should Too.

18 Apr 2013 8:13 PM
Forbidden Apple

I'm not a fan of Verrazano, but I think he will improve more than little Normandy Invasion. Now Verrazano runs a 95 and it's no good, but if he ran a 105 then he would have peaked. When has Normandy run fast? Only asking because someone will have to step up here, 1:50 and change is not going to win the race.

18 Apr 2013 8:14 PM
Forbidden Apple

Can Java War's closing kick be as potent on dirt? He's the only horse that I'm second guessing myself on. Besides him, Normandy Invasion seems like the only confirmed deep closer. And then with a better break, both of these colts might be closer up. I see a hot pace developing on a fast track.

18 Apr 2013 8:20 PM
KY VET

normandy ran well in fg....he clipped heals at start....went wide....lost by only 2......never ran at turfway........genius!

18 Apr 2013 8:37 PM
KY VET

normandy ran in the fastest 2 yr old prep race........einstein!

18 Apr 2013 8:38 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Tampa is dirt.  It's a bit quirky,  but it is dirt.

No matter, as posted earlier, JW has none chance to be on the board.

18 Apr 2013 8:38 PM
Forbidden Apple

I think Violence and Shanghai Bobby ran the best races as 2 year olds. The Remsen was the fastest race, I don't think so. Either way, 2012 is over.

18 Apr 2013 8:46 PM
KY VET

Is unlimited budget a nice filly? she ran figs about the same as the top colts....102 brisnet....verrazzano about 100 for wood.............fillies are close to boys in november.....the dam. stks was same day as remsen....run in 2 seconds slower than the boys....a race later.....thats 10 lengths! the times should be about the same! figure it out people!  the remsen was the fastest 2 yr old prep.....its like talking to 5 yr olds...................learn the game!

18 Apr 2013 8:53 PM
Forbidden Apple

Yes, the fastest prep at the Big A.

18 Apr 2013 9:39 PM
Mike Relva

Some get a little too caught up in Beyer figs, I don't.

18 Apr 2013 10:37 PM
Plod Boy Phil

It's not how fast the horse ran,  it's how the horse ran fast.

18 Apr 2013 10:42 PM
JayJay

KY VET : Normandy Invasion PEAKED in the Remsen!!!   lol, i don't know if he did or not but seems like you're hanging your hope of NI winning the derby based on his 2 yr old race.  Now that's being hopeful...seems to me you have no faith on this horse to win, if you did, you won't be posting this much about his races.   I don't think you're trying to convince anyone, you seem to be trying really hard to convince yourself that he has a chance to win the Derby.

I'm pretty confident about my picks, I've done all the handicapping I can do on these 4 horses, just have to see the workouts and the post position to see who I'll use the most on top.   I don't think Verrazano will even hit the board but if he does, all my tickets will be crap.

Siete De Oros is the 2nd favorite in the Illinois ??  No respect for Ground Transport - he's 8-1 with a few other horses...I'll have tickets singling him in P4s.  I think he's much much better than he showed in the LA Derby.

Not sure why Pure Fun is running in the Lexington, no longer need the points.  I understand she needs a race but why here ?  I do think she can beat the boys but really no need to.

18 Apr 2013 10:43 PM
KY VET

the derby is the hardest race to win.....20 horses.......i might lose.........big whoop.....i give myself an A for my early wagers.....flashback ran 103 great form...normandy coming into race perfect..............ive done my job..........now let the horse do his............put yourself into position for big hit.........

18 Apr 2013 11:23 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Both Ground Transport and Departing have both been upgraded out of the La Derby for being too close to the Extreme Race for Closers. Post time odds will dictate which gets the win bet, but each will be used in horizontal wagers and an exacta box.

18 Apr 2013 11:34 PM
KY VET

that settles it....jj slams siete de oro......now my pick.....ill take the 2000 dollar purchase, to show you breeding people.......how important you think breeding is....................bet light phil......and jj..............

18 Apr 2013 11:41 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Thanks VET

18 Apr 2013 11:47 PM
1:08 and change

Vet:

Take a Xanax bro.  

18 Apr 2013 11:48 PM
KY VET

How about predicting GAME ON DUDE to lose? ........pretty brave? best horse in america? That would really be cruel to the horrible spring for baffert huh?........i think i'll try to beat him......the question.......who? ron the greek's the only other one huh?.........maybe.....ill go for the big upset.....caixa eletronica....keyed 1st 2nd........

19 Apr 2013 12:15 AM
Forbidden Apple

Ron the Greek to the wire, in front.

Just curious KY, are you short and bald?

19 Apr 2013 12:25 AM
KY VET

no xanax bro.....108...........im having a great month......im unbeatable..........in the zone...............then i come in here, and people are talking about times dont matter....talk about horses that shouldnt even be in the derby............horses that won the derby, being ripped because "what have they ever won".........people thinking tracks "change" every half an hour..........its almost funny.........then, the beginners....who pick every horse that runs good........."i like shanghai! ok i like violence! ok i like itsmyluckyday! ok i like ivestuckanerve! ok i love orb! ok i love javas war! ok i love goldencents!...................cant wait for the derby to be run........"i love the derby winner to win the triple crown!"

19 Apr 2013 12:28 AM
Forbidden Apple

Caixa peaked last year, did you miss that?

Taken by the Storm is worth including at 15-1.

19 Apr 2013 12:35 AM
JayJay

I didn't slam Siete, I just thought GT is a much better horse than what he showed in the LA derby.  I don't slam horses.  I was surprised that he was the 2nd favorite.  So you put words into people's mouths so that you can say you know better than them ?  I don't see anyone, not one of the "breeding" people slamming Siete or his breeding or his purchase price...

lol at "brave"...what does betting against a heavy favorite have anything to do with bravery ?  wait, to you it is, because you've only bet the heavy favorites...this must be very exciting for you.

Lexington :  1, 8 with 1, 3, 8, 11 with 1, 3, 8, 11

Illinois : 5, 13, with 5, 13, 6 with 5, 13, 6, 12, 14

Good luck to all playing real money this weekend!

19 Apr 2013 12:49 AM
Matthew W

Speed ratings are only one tool in the handicapping arsenal, I for one am a speed rating skeptic---a horse can get a dream trip, laying just off cheap speed off slow fractions, while the closer gets stopped, bumped, ridden out--loses by 1/2---Beyer would give the winner the higher speed rating, so in my opinion Beyer cannot see the whole picture---Zenyatta walks outta there, they go 1:15 and change, when she unleashes he'll at the far turn, everyone else has horse---and she just blows by anyway, finishes in 1:43 and change and she gets a low Beyer---cuz Beyer can't process what he saw, only what he sees on the stopwatch, unaware that the closer's time is irrelevant, since they had nothing to do with the pace....he see's the 1:43, not the 26 sec last 5/16....

19 Apr 2013 2:45 AM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

I cant wait for the Derby so ones(you know who you are) that run their mouth on here finally shut up for awhile knowing they dont play the TC races well and thats just the way it is.Stick to whatever races you are good at you will lose a lot less money.

19 Apr 2013 7:57 AM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

The horses that are exceptional would win if they ran in the parking lot or at the beach.

The figure makers are in business to sell you figures if you dont win with them they have no liability.

If the horses ran on a surface that track athletes run on then the art of figure making would move closer to being scientific since they run on an unstable surface dirt its all a guessing game(subjective)pars class etc.

If they truly had figures that are easy to win with do you think they would sell them to you for a price of a program. Beyer sold his and now he is rich have you used his figures to become rich that is funny.

19 Apr 2013 8:04 AM
CHIEF PICAWINNA

When Beyer was the only one making and using the figures he made a lot of money.He made a great business move selling them to DRF at the right time before another figure maker did.Since anyone carrying a drf at the track has the same figures there is NO VALUE in them anymore.They should be used as a guide nothing more.

19 Apr 2013 8:08 AM
Rusty Weisner

Mike Relva,

You're knocking down a straw man.  I don't think anyone here is unskeptical about Beyer figures.  The most common comment about BSF's I see here is the observation that the BSF is either inaccurate or it should be deprecated because it's a short field.  One thing I do with them unskeptically, though, is to mark the Beyer of each horse's last race to have a sense of who's coming out of the fastest race, even if these figures aren't gospel.  Another is to see if a horse with the obvious high Beyer is being ignored.  This happened with War Emblem, even if horses like Sinister Minister or Bellamy Road (121?) demonstrate the opposite point.  By the way, the fact that War Emblem (120) and Sinister Minister (116) were both relative longshots shows that people have been paying little attention to Beyer figures for many years already.  Looking at these two examples, most people seem to play the race, not the figure -- so, in the latter case the Bluegrass had been considered a weak race on a biased surface for years already, and no one had ever come out of the Illinois Derby.  As a result of War Emblem's win the favorite in Barbaro's year was...anyone remember?...Sweetnorthernsaint.  Disclaimer:  also partly as a result of War Emblem I ended up betting on Bellamy Road in his Derby, a really bad choice of favorite and a mistake I hope never to repeat again.  

I think Goldencents' odds will actually be longer than most expect (12-1 at least?); I think the Beyers will be mostly ignored.  Despite his pedigree shortcomings I have him sixth on my list because (barring "peanut butter") I'm going to bet with a bias towards speed.  I think he beat a good horse in Flashback and he beat Super99 by the same margin as that one was beaten in Ark, and I think Super99 was on a surface he hated there.

I think Normandy Invasion is a sucker horse and, believe me, I've been suckered.

My top six are Orb, Palace Malice, Verrazano, Revolutionary, Itsmyluckday, Goldencents, in that order.  I am hoping for odds on Palace Malice to play him in exactas and single in a Pick3. I like his speed, pedigree, foundation and recency (Steve Haskins mentioned that Pletcher has done best in the Derby with horses off 3 weeks).  

One thing that's nagging me is the Arkansas horses.  The surface was strange and I wonder how it will translate to Churchill Downs.  If CD is like last year (track records) I hate all of them and like all my current picks.  If not...  

19 Apr 2013 9:24 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Rusty-

There was nothing 'strange' about the track on Closing Day at Oaklawn.  You requested my opinion about the race previously and I provided it,  yet here we go again.  You doubted our view of the track on Rebel Day - unbiased w/out a dead rail - and results since have done nothing but provide support to the stance. Two deep closers (that you 'downgraded', Bashaar and Tiz Miz Sue, returned to run big (one 13 length winner and a tough beat 2nd). As previously noted,  each was on the rail from te start until mid-turn.  Additionally, Den's Legacy, supposedly mired in the 'quicksand rail' did nothing in his next.

The Arkansas Derby was as normal a Flow for 9f at OP as there can be.  There was 'no bias' on the day. Recent history indicates OP form translates well to CD form,  for what that's worth.

Of course, you are entitled to your opinion, no matter how costly.

Good luck.

19 Apr 2013 10:02 AM
1:08 and change

Vet: always good for a chuckle man.  I do agree with about 90% of the stuff you post.

19 Apr 2013 10:40 AM
1:08 and change

Pure Fun... morning line favorite???  U have got to be kidding me.  

19 Apr 2013 10:47 AM
Rusty Weisner

Plod Boy Phil,

I was talking Oaklawn generally.  Surfaces are different, and some horses race better on some versus others.  Biased or not, this wasn't the same glib surface they had last year.

As far as the Arkansas Derby goes, I'm actually with you and will take the race at face value.  The most convincing take on Overanalyze I've heard is that he simply ran to his Gotham form but faced a weak field.

Again, talking about surface, not necessarily bias.  My sense was that it's slow and tiring, and I've heard other descriptions of it "sticky", "dead", etc.  Some horses race well on certain surfaces vs. others.  But I won't "overanalyze" the results of the meet any more and will go with the simplest explanation that that Ark Derby performance a slow one against a weak field.

"Recent history indicates OP form translates well to CD form,  for what that's worth."

It's not worth much, and you probably agree:  when horses like Smarty Jones and Bodemeister run there, it flatters the track without indicating the surface "translates" well.

19 Apr 2013 11:18 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Oaklawn:

In 2013 there were two more Closer Biased days than there were in 2012.

In 2013,  there were 3 less Speed Biased days than there were in 2012.

In 2012, there were the exact same number of Speed Biased days as Closer Biased days.

On average, OP and Hawthorne winner's come from further back than any other dirt tracks.

19 Apr 2013 11:39 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Rusty-

Do not forget Super Saver (a lone upgrade winner) and runner-up Nehro (a downgrade for us)

19 Apr 2013 11:44 AM
Rusty Weisner

Plod Boy Phil,

Not my impression from betting last year's Rebel and Arkansas Derby, where you had them 1-2 around the track.  Bodemeister would have won anywhere, but I think Secret Circle was very comparable to Super99 both tactics and pedigree-wise and he had no problem carrying his speed at Oaklawn.  And the Rebel year before that I definitely caught the track on a day when it favored speed, because I made money playing that bias.  But it's admittedly a limited sample size.

As far as this year's results go, you win. Uncle. No mas.  I hoped to explain wrong picks Rebel Day by the track surface and compounded the original mistake three weeks later.

19 Apr 2013 12:18 PM
Mike Relva

Rusty

Interesting you should mention War Emblem. I'm a fan of him. Also,didn't care for Baffert's remarks after War Emblem ran his eyeballs out.

19 Apr 2013 12:21 PM
Rusty Weisner

Mike Relva,

I remember him fondly and have told people a million times aleady that I was at his Preakness and Belmont (bet for and against him, respectively).  My biggest betting years were 2001-2005.

19 Apr 2013 1:18 PM
JayJay

Pete : Where have you been ??  Any thoughts on the Illinois and Lexington ?

19 Apr 2013 2:06 PM
JayJay

Rusty : I picked PM last year to make the Derby (and Know More), I jumped off him because of the path they put him on to get to the Derby.  I think he was rushed to make the derby, he may peak in the Derby but I honestly feel he already ran his race in the Bluegrass.  Same situation with Flashback, he had to go all out in the SA derby to get the points, if he didn't get hurt, I don't think he would hit the board in the Derby.  Why is NI a sucker's bet ?  I kind of agree with you but curious why you think so.  If Chad decides to make a change and put blinkers on him to get him closer to the pace, I might play some tickets with him but I just think he needs to be closer.  With 20 horses, closers will face a wall of horses slowing down or stopping spread across the big long stretch of CD and closers will need to be zig zagging to find a hole without losing momentum.  Revolutionary is that type of horse from what he has shown but something tells me his luck will run out in the Derby.  Not saying he can't win but getting lucky finding holes will be tough.

Coldfacts : Thoughts on Narvaez in the Illinois ?  You playing him here ?  20-1 with Paco aboard.

19 Apr 2013 2:20 PM
KY VET

they are called beyer speed figures......he didnt invent them.......they, along with brisnet figs, just give you the times of the race.........using figures doesnt mean you bet the horse with the highest one! it just gives you the time of race........whats so hard to figure out? dont blame beyer, for the fact that you lose at the races.......

19 Apr 2013 3:14 PM
KY VET

how can jj be surprised at a morning line, when he doesnt even use a form? why is the guy even posting? What kind of substance can he bring to the blog?

19 Apr 2013 3:20 PM
JayJay

You read the form and have not picked any winners, what substance do you bring ?  Other than making jokes, you actually have no knowledge about horses, peak, wake up, off form...you're guessing, nothing more.  You're the village idiot, you're tolerated but I doubt anyone takes you seriously.  Btw, Your horses flying yet ?  Did their tails start turning pink or blue yet ??

"I'm unbeatable"  lol, freakin' hilarious...

19 Apr 2013 4:23 PM
Rusty Weisner

JayJay,

I remember you liking Palace Malice early.  I also remember you picking a 28-1 horse in the Rebel to win.

Normandy Invasion.  I don't like closers when increasing in distance.  

19 Apr 2013 4:58 PM
Cassandra.Says

Squeeze the lemon -- 1964 -- Horatio Luro -- Northern Dancer

19 Apr 2013 5:17 PM
Rusty Weisner

JayJay,

Before the Bluegrass I liked Java's War as an "underneath" candidate and was saying, oh, I'd love to see the trainer do this and that, and get him out of the gate and up on the pace and have him finish with just enough points to get in the Derby but be a real longshot underneath...blah blah.  Somehow the trainer didn't listen to me.  Go figure.  I think there's not a lot of fixing of the horses at this point and I have to figure NI will come with a late but too late run again.

I'm also not worrying about jockeys (unless the snakebit Leparoux is on the horse -- and hey, look who he's on).  I'm hoping they're just on board for the ride.  I thought of this when I saw that Palace Malice has his third jockey in three starts.

19 Apr 2013 5:29 PM
Rusty Weisner

I have to say I like the names of most of the horses this year.  In fact, three of my favorites are my top three.  Not a lot of stupid names this year:  Mylute, Will Take Charge, Java's War, Frac Daddy, Govenor Charlie, Super99 (hope he's not in, that would be a travesty).  I'm not sure whether I dislike Overanalyze.  Any Tiznows?  Tiznow horses always have the dumbest, multi-word names: how much can you do with 'Tis?

19 Apr 2013 5:45 PM
Rusty Weisner

JayJay,

"think he was rushed to make the derby, he may peak in the Derby but I honestly feel he already ran his race in the Bluegrass."

You may be right, but I like it that he was rushed to the Derby.  The carefully spaced campaigns weren't working before for Pletcher (Haskins actually mentioned that he's gotten his best performances out of horses out of the Arkansas Derby or the Bluegrass).  I have a kind of emotional attachment to the horse now, which is rare for me with a horse that has never won me money.  I love it that he was put in a tough spot and pulled it out (the points).  It'll be a rare case, too, of me singling a horse with fairly long odds (I'm hoping for 15-1).  I'll probably have six in the Derby if I play the Pick 4(s), but I'm looking to single him in a P3 and play him in exactas.  I'll be disappointed if he gets a bad post.  I'm having a positive vision of him with "16".  I have to get started memorizing the colors of the silks so I can watch the race as something other than an adrenaline-blurred kaleidoscope.

19 Apr 2013 6:08 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Rusty -

That's kinda funny about Palace Malice coming up big in a 'must get points' situation.  Good thing they told him,  otherwise he may have let Charming Kitten go by.

Just bustin'.

19 Apr 2013 6:25 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Cassandra-

You should be in a trivial game show. I don't think they ask you questions like 'who's your pick in the Illinois Derby or the Lexington'.

Thanks.

19 Apr 2013 6:28 PM
Rusty Weisner

Plod Boy Phil,

Like I said, I'm getting an emotional connection.  I'll go with it, anyway.  I like to see the horse try.

Like him?

19 Apr 2013 7:07 PM
Rusty Weisner

Plod Boy Phil,

No need to sugar-coat it with the "just bustin'", by the way.  Keep it ascerbic.

19 Apr 2013 7:16 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Yes,  he carries his upgrade going into the Blue Grass to the Derby based on the 'Quick to Zip' move into a modestly closer favoring Flow.

19 Apr 2013 7:21 PM
Rusty Weisner

I think Palace Malice may have had a hole at the top of the stretch in the Louisiana Derby, by the way.  They say Barbaro ruined Edgar Prado.  

But now I'm just talking out my ...

19 Apr 2013 7:28 PM
Plod Boy Phil

That's funnier. There was no hole. Edgar has had a fantastic year.

19 Apr 2013 7:34 PM
JayJay

PBP : I totally missed your posts to me after I posted the "maiden winners winner stakes next out".  That post was for KY VET, not anyone else.  I'm sure he got the "All going to the derby..." point.

The post was in response to him saying it's dumb that Coldfacts posts maiden winners trying stakes race next out.  The list was to show that some maiden winners does succeed running in stakes in their next race, and even succeeding in making it to the derby.  I'm not saying they're great horses or that they will win the derby, not sure if it ding'd a previous post of yours but it wasn't intended to.  Was strictly directed to the PRO.

19 Apr 2013 7:50 PM
Pedigree Ann

Rusty - Up until the year 2000, the Illinois Derby was run AFTER the Kentucky Derby, so no Illinois Derby COULD run in the Kentucky Derby before 2001. That's 12 runnings of the race as a Derby prep to date.

So one Derby winner (2002) from the Illinois Derby winners is a decent result for the race; it has more recency than the Wood Memorial has (last winner to win the Ky Derby 2000).

Meanwhile, in the same time period, the Delta Jackpot has produced 0 horses to even hit the board in the Ky Derby. Yet it gets points.

19 Apr 2013 8:04 PM
Plod Boy Phil

JayJay-

Thought it was for me as Coldfacts and I have had a reasonably civil discussion on that topic. Clearly my position is it's not a good idea as horses mature and gain experience.

Thanks.

19 Apr 2013 8:27 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Rusty -

I've grown to count on your weather reports for the weekend stakes....you're slacking off.

I had a big interest in a turf horse at Haw tomorrow,  but see that there's a mixture of cold rain and snow in the Chicago area.

19 Apr 2013 8:30 PM
Rusty Weisner

Plod Boy Phil,

It's clean living for me till the Derby (or maybe the Oaks).  

I've never played a race at Hawthorne or Arlington, anyway.

What's the race?  I love to check in on people's picks even when it's just a vicarious interest.

You're right about that seam. I take it back. So much the better.  

19 Apr 2013 9:12 PM
Rusty Weisner

Pedigree Ann,

I didn't know that.  2001 was the first year I bet horses (it must have been a new-millenium resolution).  Still demonstrates the point; the race had no standing.  The race's weight subsequently got inflated off that one performance.

19 Apr 2013 9:15 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Illinois Derby and Lexington Stakes

19 Apr 2013 9:43 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Lexington Stakes

We have three upgrades, including the 4 Hip Four Sixtynine who gets his via the pressured pace setting effort in the La Derby - a race that set up extremely favorable for deep closers.  Looking for this one to be taken off the pace tomorrow.

We have two downgrades:  The 1 Winning Cause and the 6 Sunbeam.

19 Apr 2013 10:03 PM
papillon

forbidden apple--glad you liked the picture--here's one of orb as a foal chilling out at claiborne:

blogs.courier-journal.com/.../foalphoto

ky vet--i agree with your doubts about verranzo based on the fact he didn't finish stronger having apparently so much left in the tank--with those soft early fractions he should have been able to put a lot more  daylight between himself and the 2nd place horse, and still have had a lot in the tank as he crossed the wire.

but even if he didn't exert himself at and all and finished with a full tank, thorograph likes to say that just because horse has a lot left in take after race A, that doesn't mean he'll be able to access it in race B.

speaking of having a lot left in the tank after a race, orb finished with ears pricked (unlike verranzo in the wood whose ears where flat against his head)--i've always found ear position a more reliable indicator of a horse's effort than a motionless jockey.

here's orb in the stretch in fl derby:

www.kentuckyderby.com/.../orb3-30%2C3_0.jpg

ranagulzion--i'll look over normandy invasion and get back to you =)  given the temperature, his finish was aided by the weather in the wood that he isn't likely to get that benefit the 1st saturday in may.

rusty--thanks for the support for my humidity theory (actually all of the information came from peer reviewed sudies on the effect of temperature on performance). the down side, is that it can't tell you much before a given race what any horse will do on the day; it is more useful for comparing efforts after races.

based on the effect of temperature alone, the three best performances were goldenscents, orb, and revolutionary--goldenscents' time and beyer seems honest to me--he earned them by overcoming the conditions (of course, churchill is a more tiring track than SA, so he's unlikely to replicate that effort in the derby).

the three worst performances were verranzo, java's war, and overanalyze, all were aided by the the conditions, yet failed to shine te way govenor charlie did with his extremely beneficial conditions. charlie's race is hard to evaluate, because the conditions were so favorable; it's like trying to evaluate the performances from the 1968 mexico olympics. i'd be cautious with him in the derby--the conditions will be much tougher than he had at sunland, including a much more tiring track.

phil--beyers are supposed to be pure pace numbers based soley on camparing all the times of all the races on a given card, but ignoring conditions, unlike thorograph which takes into account all of the conditions. regardless of the source, all figures are subjective, and have to be accepted on a leap of faith that they are not only accurate, but not improperly influences--the beyer that was originally assigned to the wood was 90, but is was upped to 95 because of verranzo's reputation. also, figures are only really are relevant for comparing performances from the same card, not performances from different tracks on different days.

to all, something to brighten your day:

www.kentuckyderby.com/.../mine-bird-returns-twin-spires

click on it--you won't be disappointed =)

good luck to all, your braver than i, sending money on the most unpredictable race run each year.

19 Apr 2013 10:40 PM
KY VET

Bizarre.....the methodology of plod boy phil.....hipfoursixtynine is an upgrade, for being way overmatched...and quitting.....lost by 21....he was a sprinter, going long......i get an upgrade from 21 to losing by 10, but to bet him because he ran horrible? no common sense...........and sunbean is a downgrade? for what? he didnt get to run in the stretch...at all.....downgrade a race when he didnt get to run? this stuff is just total crap.........the whole pace thing, has value, if used correctly.......but i keep seeing things that make no sense at all....your formula is very flawed! no common sense.........

19 Apr 2013 10:49 PM
Plod Boy Phil

VET-

Everything is a function of where a horse was relative to the winner of that race in terms of beaten lengths at the first two calls combined. Since we rated the La Derby as Extremely Closer favoring,  potential upgrades will have been significantly more forwardly placed early than the eventual winner.  Downgrades will be close proximity to where the winner was.

Thus, upgrades to Palace Malice, Ground Transport, Departing, Code West, Titletown Five and Hip.

The downgrades are Revolutionary, Mylute, Sunbeam, and Golden Soul.

Hip ?

19 Apr 2013 11:07 PM
Mike Relva

Rusty

Always thought he's a cool looking horse. I always liked his almost black color. Wish he hadn't been in Baffert's barn.

19 Apr 2013 11:24 PM
Plod Boy Phil

VET-

Let me ask you two questions.  

1) In a race in which the early pace is absurdly fast for the distance,  which horse is likely to benefit the most in terms of stamina and conditioning:  The horse that set the pressured pace or the horse that sat in the back and passed the gassed runners that were involved in the duel?

2) Which of the two runners is the betting public most likely to gravitate towards when they are next seen ?

Take the example from today's 4th at SA. Two runners exited a Closer favoring race.  One had been too close to the early pace, made a bid for the lead then weakened late.  The other was in the same early position as the eventual winner and closed with that one to finish second.  Today, the upgraded speed horse was 6-1 and the downgraded closer was 5/2.

Hip ?

19 Apr 2013 11:30 PM
Matthew W

Will be boxing Lady Of Shamrock/Double Ante in The Santa Barbara tom---and will put win money on 'Ante, and I know it's a fool's play! Double Ante , nw3, but I saw her explosive debut run, I had her 47-1 odds, something attracted me to her, she came home like a turf horse, with that quickening---she looked visually very good the other day, in her latest race--- working sharp, Purim was going to be a top turf sire, and I Think Double Ante is a nice horse.....race 9, Santa Anita, I fancy three horses, so I'll exacta box them! #1 Ten Tequilas (12-1)...#4 Indian Spirit (20-1) and #8 Sports Report (4-1)

20 Apr 2013 3:40 AM
Rusty Weisner

Plod Boy Phil,

I'll check in on the Illinois Derby because I would have give Sunbean the excuse of a troubled trip.

The idea that a horse that lost because of a duel is a good bet next out is an elementary handicapping angle. I'll take it your "system" does its subscribers the benefit of aggregrating that kind of analysis for a lot of races.

Here's a perfect example.  Remember that Oliver's Tale at SA I liked after he dueled a favorite into defeat?  He came back to run well at the higher class, coming in second, so I wish I had been waiting around to bet the one he beat in the maiden, Wild Media.  Wild Media, not surprisingly, came back to win.  Not long odds -- 1.70 -- but it was only a five-horse field and he wasn't the favorite.  I'd like to know if you had him on your radar as an upgrade.  

20 Apr 2013 9:32 AM
Rusty Weisner

Mike Relva,

Remember the horse who came in second to him in the Preakness that year?

20 Apr 2013 9:35 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Rusty -

While the concept may be elementary, it is knowing which speed horses ran their races in closer favoring events and which just got tired under a 'normal' Flow. For us, the former is clearly playable and the other is not.

I do remember your horse in the 10th on SAD day.  Oliver's Tale's MSW was 'neutra', thus all in the race were given 'neutral' grades.  However, OT gets downgraded out of his runner-up performance on 4/6 as the race was Extremely favorable for Speed - he failed under ideal conditions.  All runners from finished behind him in that Alw1x race deserve extra credit when next seen. I'd make the winner Pointsoffthebench 'neutral'

20 Apr 2013 10:35 AM
Rusty Weisner

Plod Boy Phil,

My question was about the other horse, Wild Media.  So that was "neutral".  Just curious.

Good luck in Illinois.

20 Apr 2013 11:55 AM
Rusty Weisner

There's a very slim chance I'll actually catch the Charles Town Classic live tonight.  Very slim.  If I do, though, I'll try Clubhouse Ride at 8-1.  Best races were at a bullring track.

Good luck all!

20 Apr 2013 11:57 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Yes, Wild exited the MSW race won  by OT as a 'neutral' horse. His subsequent win was also 'neutral'

I'm about 70 minutes from CT,  but will not be in attendance - I find very little about the race track appealing anymore,  though seeing Dude and Ron would be very cool.

20 Apr 2013 12:17 PM
Rusty Weisner

Plod Boy Phil,

I wouldn't have guessed you're in the vicinity.  I don't go to live racing very much and will be betting the Derby from the Laurel simulcast.  Let me know whenever you're in attendance at one of the local tracks and maybe we'll have occasion to bump into each other.  Only been to CT once, years ago.

20 Apr 2013 1:04 PM
Plod Boy Phil

I've to simulcast at Laurel three times in the last two and a half years(three too many). I've been to 24 consecutive Preaknesses beginning with Sunday Silence - this year will be 25.

20 Apr 2013 1:24 PM
i812many

Am i the only one liking the "(10)fordubai" in the ILLINOIS DERBY?

20 Apr 2013 3:16 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Frank from Bloodhorse likes that one -go to 'video' and watch the 'Handicapping Show'.

20 Apr 2013 3:20 PM
koufax

Phil do you really like Hip Four Sixtynine at 50-1?

20 Apr 2013 4:06 PM
KY VET

PLOD.....a big longshot sprinter, would do 1 thing in the risen star.......he would send.......and get killed..........it would make sense, if a horse ran semi good....like goldencents flashback speed duel.....which everyone but you knows was a major speed duel.......and your upgrade of palice malice was, a horse that was never asked at any point.....the move you saw, wasnt even a move...............i just need you to make sense in the future....................cool.....

20 Apr 2013 4:29 PM
koufax

What about General Election?

20 Apr 2013 4:43 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Koufax - Yes

Made the 9-4 DD,  so sitting better than 40-1

20 Apr 2013 5:12 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Hip VET

Again, no pick from you.

Feel good about the downgrade of Sunbeam, as well as Revolutionary and Mylute.

We took a hit with the the downgraded Winning Cause winning.

20 Apr 2013 5:19 PM
derbygal

Lexington Results.

1 Winning Cause

10 General Election

2 Pick of The Litter

8 Cerro

20 Apr 2013 5:21 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Koufax -

Hope you did some good with General Election....good call.

20 Apr 2013 5:27 PM
i812many

nice call on general election koufax! Hit a nice place on that one! Sweet ex payout for that one as well! :)

Cant wait to watch "(#10)fordubai" run in illinois derby!

good luck to all!

20 Apr 2013 5:29 PM
Plod Boy Phil

VET-

Any Illinois Derby pick from you ?

20 Apr 2013 5:34 PM
KY VET

Hmmmmmm.....i wonder why the filly Pure fun didnt run...........who coulda predicted that?

20 Apr 2013 5:46 PM
KY VET

i like the horse jj didnt like...siete de oros w/p

20 Apr 2013 5:48 PM
KY VET

think its a longshot race....no huge bet...the haw derby

20 Apr 2013 5:58 PM
Plod Boy Phil

I know........McPeek liked her.  Too funny.

Good luck

20 Apr 2013 6:05 PM
i812many

aahhh.....the dreaded INQUIRY!!!!

:(

20 Apr 2013 6:24 PM
Plod Boy Phil

That was very easy for Departing.  Wish I had a clue that Ground Transport would be sent to the lead to carve out very aggressive fractions.

Didn't look over the top on paper to me.

20 Apr 2013 6:26 PM
i812many

WOOOHOOOO... VERY NICE! (Not that run though!)

20 Apr 2013 6:29 PM
i812many

Anyone have a nugget for a night cap? Im looking at santa anita, but nothing is jumping out at me.

:(

20 Apr 2013 6:32 PM
Plod Boy Phil

i812 -

Good day for you

20 Apr 2013 6:44 PM
koufax

Thanks Phil and many glad I could help. I had place and show and half the exacta. I took some of that money and put it on your #4 in the 5th at SA Phil nice pick I did well today.

20 Apr 2013 7:00 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Koufax -

Very well done indeed. Congrats.

20 Apr 2013 8:23 PM
Rusty Weisner

Plod Boy Phil,

I did show up briefly at Charles Town.  Spent the day at Harper's Ferry with the family and dropped by for races 3-5.  This was after a bird crapped right in my eye, known to be good luck (second time in a matter of three days, so I have one left for the Derby).  I liked a horse in the 5th and put my wife and kids' picks underneath in exactas and trifectas...and hit both for $130.  So there's one system.  Also got a complimentary highball glass with the program.  Cute track, with those dimensions, nice with the mountains off there.  It was also a nice crowd on the apron.  Seemed like lots of horse people and their families.

I put $4 on Clubhouse Ride to win.

20 Apr 2013 8:50 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Rusty-

Thanks for the update.  I like the new system.

Looked at the results for the first 8 races....a chalk festival in West Va.

20 Apr 2013 9:03 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Between the foot problems and the dismal race from Show Some Magic today in the IL Derby,  I have to think there are plenty of seats becoming available on the Gov Charlie bandwagon.

20 Apr 2013 9:21 PM
Rusty Weisner

Plod Boy Phil,

Talk about chalk.  Something I'd never seen -- in the 4th there was a 1-9 horse (no, I didn't bet him) and the whole board listed the rest at 99-1 until post time.  I think the second favorite was 29-1 when they went off.  The favorite won by at least ten lengths, then mine won the next won by about eight lengths, though he was around 7-2.  So I don't know what to make of that place.  

The track has a nice aspect to it in that you can watch races close up on the clubhouse turn, a vantage point you don't usually get.

20 Apr 2013 10:15 PM
Rusty Weisner

Game on Dude is 1-5 with 6 minutes to post.  Going by what I've seen there should be an option for betting the number of lengths they win by.  Mine actually won by 18.

20 Apr 2013 10:25 PM
1:08 and change

Way to go Duuuuuuuuude!!!

20 Apr 2013 10:38 PM
KY VET

not the game on dude we are used to........kinda right, but wrong......greek ran unreal with that pace.....best horse this day lost...........fun game.....

20 Apr 2013 10:39 PM
Rusty Weisner

Thought he had him turning for home.  

It's a different kind of racing with those tight turns.  25.96 opening quarter.

20 Apr 2013 10:40 PM
1:08 and change

Vet:

Best horse my a$$...where was he then at the finish line.  No excuses.  Get up on the pace if it's so slow.

20 Apr 2013 10:42 PM
Mike Relva

KY Vet

I know,it's suprising with Pure Fun's race. Didn't expect that.

As for Game On Dude thought he might win by half a dozen lenghts.

20 Apr 2013 11:25 PM
JayJay

Not sure what made Guidry pull GT on the far turn but looks like Taken closed in on him.  I have no idea why they keep putting him so close to the pace.  This horse needs a horse to go after IMO.

Nice win by Julien on Winning Cause.  Congrats to all hitting the nice place money and exactas.

21 Apr 2013 12:03 AM
Mary Zinke

Best horse lost, KY?  That Charles Town Classic check was made out with the final entries.  Sometimes wrong is just wrong.  

Totally stole a friend I love to hate's Lexington pick when my long shot scratched, so I'd tell him thanks, but I think he hit at least the .10 super, so now I really can't stand him.

21 Apr 2013 12:40 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Mike -

It was sarcasm from VET, as it was from me regarding McPeek's pre-race optimism. Trainers comments are of no value. She's an ordinary filly that developed very quickly last winter.

21 Apr 2013 7:33 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Credit to the Dude who gutted out the win despite a major regression - a regression that was not unexpected considering the back to back giant races he had just fired. Those that bet against him made the right move but got a bad result.

21 Apr 2013 7:43 AM
Mary Zinke

Dude,

It's like the Plod vs the Smith with slipping.  Smith said it was the surface.

Those who bet against Dude should have picked another race to try to beat the fav, and they knew that before the race. What in the PPs of any other entry led to picking them over Dude in this spot? He wasn't even going w/o the L(see sarcasm alert above) Maybe next time, since Dude will either be running on a synthetic SoCal track or shipping East again after 2 giant but deceptively easy looking wins(the 10f I can see, even as dominating as Dude was in the SA H'cap, is still 10f, but the 9f hand ride over 3 others?) and one gutsy performance, then won't it be fun, and oh so profitable, and better yet there's the I told you so moment coming, to be right?

21 Apr 2013 9:02 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Mary-

It's always the surface.

21 Apr 2013 9:31 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Mary -

Are you telling the people that took 12-1 on the 3rd place finisher, who was beaten less than a length, made a foolish wager ?

21 Apr 2013 9:35 AM
Mary Zinke

Thanks, Phil.  That's the response I was looking for :)

I remembered how much you like smiley faces.

It's not always the surface.

21 Apr 2013 9:42 AM
Rusty Weisner

Please put this horse Winning Cause in the Derby.  I need another toss.  Three wins, all at Keeneland.

21 Apr 2013 9:44 AM
Mary Zinke

Phil, Of course how to wager is a separate issue from handicapping, but why would one think Dude was not the best horse for the win? Was there something in the PPs that said otherwise?

21 Apr 2013 9:55 AM
Mary Zinke

RTG went off at 12-1?  

21 Apr 2013 9:58 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Mary-

Betting a favorite that is likely to run below it's previous performance is never a good idea,  regardless of the apparent cushion they have over the competition. That is information found in the PPs, provided one knows how to read them beyond the obvious.  

21 Apr 2013 10:14 AM
Mary Zinke

Or, if there's one sees no value in wagering on such a short-priced favorite that one knows is the correct win choice, then one may skip the race.  Whatever Pletcher was throwing at him, Dude was lone speed, and I don't see why he would regress off of his SA romps, but now that you mentioned that one should know that a regression was to be expected, I'll watch for it next time.  

21 Apr 2013 10:32 AM
Mary Zinke

P.S., Phil, KY calling people idiots is far more palatable than your provided one knows.

21 Apr 2013 10:37 AM
1:08 and change

First of all, I'd like to know how many races are ran at 1 1/8 at Charlestown.  Secondly, do you really believe they ran the opening 1/4 in 26 seconds??? Then the 2nd 1/4 in 23.41???  

Last year the race was won in 1:50.28 by a horse in this year's race.  This year the race is won in 1:52.27??? So these horses were ten lengths worse?  CaxElec was 20 lengths worse?

Believe me, I do not like comparing times year to year but something was not right last night.  Track issue or clock issue.  

21 Apr 2013 10:38 AM
Plod Boy Phil

:68 and change -

Reading your post prompted me to take a look at the replays of both this year and last year.  Here are my observations:

1) The run-up appeared similar in the two races,  though the camera angle was slightly different last year.

2) In 2012, the horses visually appeared to be going much slower early.  I base this on the close proximity of the entire field as well as how the jocks were sitting and the how the horses were striding.  The opening quarter last year was posted at 23.8.

3) This year, the early leader appeared to be putting in much more effort early on relative to those from the 2012 running. This 1st Q was makes the movement of a glacier look fast.  It's also interesting to note that two deep closers were able to get that close to the Dude.  Either he regressed further than one could dream,  or there may have been a clock malfunction. If I was home, I'd put my stop watch on both races.  In the event the splits have not been changed between now and Wenesday,  I will do exactly that.    

21 Apr 2013 12:46 PM
Mike Relva

Phil

Got to agree with you regarding trainers comments. Having said that I thought Pure Fun would run better.

21 Apr 2013 3:56 PM
Plod Boy Phil

SANTA ANITA - Race 5

4 Smokey Lonesome:  chased the w-w winner of a speed favoring race while wide going 9f last out.  Expected live early pace scenario today should suit.

21 Apr 2013 4:55 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Icy cold

21 Apr 2013 5:39 PM
JayJay

Pedigree Ann : Looks like Den's Legacy might join the party after all.  He's back on the list and currently number 20.  I wonder if Baffert will take out S99 and leave DL in.

21 Apr 2013 11:38 PM
KY VET

drinking game time!........we all have to drink , these next ten days......every time each trainer says" i loved his work! just what me wanted....just to maintain his form, he's fit!"......................................................has any trainer said otherwise?

22 Apr 2013 4:03 PM
JerseyBoy

What a disgrace.

Godolphin's top trainer has just shamed the entire industry. Beyond belief.

22 Apr 2013 4:32 PM
Mike Relva

490 hits and counting for this blog,not bad. Still remember when Shandler's blogs regressed sometimes to fifty hits or so. Who misses him? lol

22 Apr 2013 9:59 PM
Forbidden Apple

Ron the Greek was 4-1, another 40 yards and he's a winner. Game on Dude peaked, move over for the rest of the year.

Why is Wise Dan being pushed to the backseat again this year? He is sound and deserves another chance on dirt in the Stephen Foster. I like Successful Dan too, but he has plenty of issues. Wise Dan should go back to dirt and plan on a campaign that gets him to the Breeders Cup Classic healthy. Point of Entry will beat him in a marathon on turf. What does he have left to prove at 1 mile on turf?

JerseyBoy,

I partially agree with your comments, Mahmood Al Zarooni is looney and will be fired soon. If he is not already packing his bags and looking for a new career. Steroids have been around long enough, this is not a shock to me. Does anyone besides me watch less football or baseball these days? Of course horse racing is not on the same level as MLB and NFL, this does hurt some. I do not consider Zarooni Godolphin's top trainer, he had no reason to administer steroids. And by no means would Godolphin aprove of his training methods. My question is, how did Godolphin not know about this idiot's decision making process?

22 Apr 2013 11:05 PM
Forbidden Apple

I just hope that Alpha, Emcee, and Fortify come back to the states and get out of their current surroundings. And maybe Certify will come along for the ride.

22 Apr 2013 11:21 PM
Forbidden Apple

JayJay,

Are you suggesting that KY Donkey is the owner of Hansen, just checking?

22 Apr 2013 11:37 PM
JerseyBoy

Forbidden Apple:

“Al Zarooni and Saeed bin Suroor train for Godolphin in Britain but the former had seemed the favoured

trainer with Sheik Mohammed since being handed a role in 2010.

Last year he won the Dubai World Cup with Monterosso and the St Leger with Encke.”

(Daily Mail 4-22-13).

I have had doubts ever since Rewilding’s sudden improvement as a 4yo.

Godolphin’s people almost certainly have vets available at all times. But the trainer said that when he applied the steroids he did not know the rules.  Apparently, he did not know the vets either.

23 Apr 2013 8:55 AM
Mike Relva

Forbidden Apple

Your reference is usually "Ky Donkey". You see sometimes I get confused. Thought this is supposed to be a blog,not grade school.

23 Apr 2013 10:52 AM
KY VET

its fine mike.....they can call me what they want......no censorship! i'm a pro.....im rich.......they dont understand, that i know what im talking about.........horse #2 2nd to last work till may 4th race....5 furlongs...very very slow...102change....jockey slowed him down too much on turn.......jockeys!

23 Apr 2013 3:39 PM
KY VET

wondered why goldolphin's horses all had heads larger than BARRY BONDS!!!!

23 Apr 2013 3:42 PM
Rusty Weisner

Sanity confirmed:  Charles Town Classic time corrected.

23 Apr 2013 4:13 PM
Mike Relva

KY Vet

You will never lack for confidence.

That's pretty cool. lol

23 Apr 2013 4:44 PM
Forbidden Apple

Mike Relva,

Your friend enjoys name calling and the name fits him well. You must know him by his real name and admire his great wake up angle  handicapping skills. You never responded to my last post. I had Orb listed at #5 on my Derby Dozen list as of Feb. 5. Why does that matter, I thought he peaked already? Are you the only fan of this horse?

JerseyBoy,

I am aware of Zarooni's brief career, he needs to be fired. Playing dumb will get him nowhere.

23 Apr 2013 4:47 PM
Mike Relva

Forbidden Apple

If you had Orb on your list on Feb 5,I stand corrected on that point.

No,I'm not the only one that's a fan of Orb. No,I don't know Vet by his name. Do you?

23 Apr 2013 6:42 PM
1:08 and change

Vet:

So was RTG still the best in CT?  Come on man...

Let's give the Dude his due.

23 Apr 2013 6:48 PM
JayJay

Forbidden Apple : Nope, I would never insult a real horse owner (good or bad) by mistaking them for KY VET.  Those people actually knows about horses and the "blue" tail on Hansen was real.

23 Apr 2013 10:05 PM
KY VET

relax 108.......there was no pace.........believe what ya want...no big deal.....

23 Apr 2013 10:07 PM
Forbidden Apple

JayJay,

Who do you like better for the KY Derby, Revolutionary, Verrazano, or Normandy Invasion? I like how Revolutionary galloped out strong after the wire last out, he did not win by much in his stakes wins. And I just can't move Normandy Invasion ahead of Verrazano. Verrazano did just enough to win, seems like he has plenty left in the tank. At 1 1/4 miles I'm leaning towards Revoltuionary, your thoughts.

23 Apr 2013 10:22 PM
JayJay

I'm on the same page as you, Revolutionary.  I posted my picks awhile back and have not seen any reason to change it.

Orb

Will Take Charge

Mylute

Black Onyx

I'm not a believer of Verrazano before the Wood and still not a believer he can sustain his lead at the top of the stretch.  Normandy Invasion was my pick for the Wood and he really reminds me of Ice Box.  I learned my lesson on closers from the clouds in the Derby.  I posted before, if Chad makes a change and puts blinkers on NI to try and get him closer to the pace, I might play him.  Revolutionary I like because his runs, at least IMO, doesn't require him to extend himself.  His wins didn't look like it took that much out of him, his strides looked so natural that I don't know if he gets tired after his races.

I'll decide maybe 30 minutes before the race who I will play the most on top.  The one horse that's really intriguing me besides Revolutionary is Frac Daddy, I honestly don't know why, there was nothing I liked about this horse and I think I still don't like him but his name keeps popping up at me whenever I look at the field.  I don't plan on putting money on him but I'd kick myself if FD hits the board at huge odds (4th spot) and I miss the superfecta because of him...

23 Apr 2013 10:48 PM
KY VET

Ethiopian runners run long distance......bet the skinny normandy invasion at 1 1/4 miles............wow....i just had a coldcuts moment!

23 Apr 2013 11:10 PM
Forbidden Apple

I agree, Revolutionary always does his best running after the wire and never looks exhausted. I'm not a fan of Verrazano either, but he is the horse I fear most. I still have Itsmyluckyday and Orb at the top of my list. With Revolutionary, Frac Daddy, Verrazano, and Normandy Invasion next. I never bet supers, maybe this is my year to try.

After the Wood I thought Normandy Invasion would be my clear third choice. The problem is that the entire world watched him come charging down the lane in the Remsen and Wood, his odds will be around the same as Orb and Revolutionary, maybe 7-1. He's the obvious wise guy horse. My problem with him is that he never gets past the leader.

KY Horse 1 & 2,

It's okay to have a ColdOpinion moment, Verrazano just might be to big for his own good. Last year I was in love with Questing and Alpha, light framed horses that run hard. Questing weighed like 1,002 pounds. Normandy Invasion is a must use in all exotics.

23 Apr 2013 11:27 PM
Forbidden Apple

KY,

Since you are the only expert on this blog, did Frac Daddy peak already?

23 Apr 2013 11:31 PM
KY VET

who is frac daddy? isnt this a derby blog?

23 Apr 2013 11:41 PM
Forbidden Apple

Yes Frac Daddy is slow so far, but he deserves a look in exotics, not for the win. Almost every prep race has been slow, a fast horse might steal this race turning for home. His trainer is having a great spring so far and the horse does like churchill Downs. Simply looking for a live longshot in the triple, it might be him.

24 Apr 2013 12:07 AM
Rusty Weisner

I am going to hope that Arkansas is weak and that you can use the performances of Overanalyze and Frac Daddy elsewhere as a gauge.  Overanalyze improved over his Gotham, but not by that much.  He faced a stronger field there (more evidence, if there weren't enough already -- Siete de Oros third in the Illinois Derby).  Same for Frac Daddy.  Another gauge?  Carve.  Had a right to improve after a very sluggish start in the Rebel, but basically ran back to his abilities to clunk up third behind these two.  Oxbow?  I'm supposed to go by Wayne Lukas's 90's form?  Optimizer.

I'll cross my fingers...and cross them all off.

24 Apr 2013 7:45 AM
Rusty Weisner

When I say "toss" I mean toss as win candidates on multi-race tickets.  I hope I will have a live Pick 4 going into the Derby and can content myself with a small exotic wager:  Palace Malice with Revolutionary and Orb in exactas.

Speaking of the Pick 4, there's a wrench in that plan:  Point of Entry will be in the Woodford (also part of the Oaks/Woodford/Derby P3).  I hate having to bet around a short-priced, legitimate, celebrity favorite.  Time comes, I'd love opinions on who can beat him (if Wise Dan is not in).  I'd think a horse that can steal it the way the race has been stolen the past two years.

24 Apr 2013 7:57 AM
Rusty Weisner

A lot of people like Will Take Charge on that other thread.  I don't get it.

24 Apr 2013 10:28 AM
Rusty Weisner

JayJay,

I hope it wasn't me that talked you off Normandy Invasion.  Do the opposite of what I advise and you'll be fine.

I see you like Will Take Charge, too.  You saw something before, as I recall.  What do you like?

24 Apr 2013 11:01 AM
Rusty Weisner

Here's another anecdotal indicator of the class of the Arkansas circuit this year.  Always in a Tiz ran within a neck of WTC in the Smarty Jones, and up the track in the Wood.

The only Derby horse WTC has beaten is Oxbow, who will be at least 30-1.  Skipping the test of the 100-point races, and the 1 1/8 miles, is not a positive indicator for me.  

By comparison:

As a 3-yo Verrazano has beaten: Java's War, Vyjack, Normandy Invasion, Falling Sky.  

As a 3-yo Orb has beaten Itsmyluckday, Frac Daddy and Violence, who would have been in the Derby.

Revolutionary has beaten Palace Malice, Code West and Golden Soul (plus Departing).

Palace Malice has beaten Oxbow, Normandy Invasion, Mylute, Golden Soul and Charming Kitten.

Goldencents beat Flashback and Tiz a Minister and was accomplished at 2, when he beat Mylute and Itsmyluckyday at Delta Downs.

Overanalyze has beaten Oxbow, Frac Daddy and Falling Sky.

I realize I'll be ridiculed for this post but I'm trying to get a handle on what the most competitive races were.  I think it was the Wood, followed by the Louisiana and Florida Derbies followed by the Santa Anita Derby followed by the Arkansas Derby, followed by the unclassifiable synthetic Bluegrass.

24 Apr 2013 12:24 PM
KY VET

Tampapicks...1-#1 selfmadema

            2- 1a-fav. patriot

            3- #8 toccet man

            4- #6 farah

            5- #6 tiztrouble

            6- #8 whoslady

            7 -#9 fivestarprince

            8- #5 rakelish

            9- #9 howcoolishe

24 Apr 2013 12:43 PM
KY VET

tam..100w..race 1 out  -100

          race 2 6.40  +120

          race 3 12.60 +650

lucky huh? no knowledge....not a pro......if i lose all 6 remaining, im still +50........

24 Apr 2013 2:04 PM
KY VET

tam...races 4 and 5 ran out...race 4, horse inside mine bolted into me, lost all chance...+450

24 Apr 2013 3:08 PM
KY VET

tam...race 6 out...race 7, my best bet wins...hammered at gate...was 2nd fav the whole way till boom! even money....win by 6.....4.20 total +460

24 Apr 2013 3:59 PM
KY VET

tam....race 8 winner 14.80.....race 9 rediculously best horse, but got 2nd.....total for the day....+1000 dollars.......

24 Apr 2013 5:31 PM
KY VET

ahhh.................................................silence!

24 Apr 2013 8:06 PM
KY VET

BREAKING NEWS...........dutrow's only got 9 yrs 8 mos. left........

24 Apr 2013 9:24 PM
Rusty Weisner

KY VET,

Great job!

Dress up these picks with a little narrative and proper punctuation and people will pay a little more notice.  

A couple questions:

I admire the discipline of playing $100 win bets all day.  Is that your usual play?

Any particular reason you were playing TB Downs?

24 Apr 2013 9:29 PM
Mary Zinke

What? Oh, yah, congrats. Try to not give it all back tomorrow. There, now he can have sweet dreams.  Silence resuming now.

24 Apr 2013 9:42 PM
KY VET

at big tracks, 200w....tampa not huge track......no narative needed................someone told me to post winners.......100 seems like alot..........just like a pro poker player, i look at it as units............just another days work............tampa was just a random choice............horses are horses anywhere...........

24 Apr 2013 9:56 PM
KY VET

you like me! you really like me!------winner to the person that remembers what famous person said this.........

24 Apr 2013 9:59 PM
Forbidden Apple

Is anyone playing a KY Oaks/Derby double? I'm going to single Close Hatches in the Oaks. She's battle tested and ready for another smashing performance.

24 Apr 2013 11:59 PM
Coldfacts

Rusty Weisner,

There appears to be some inconsistency in your post. You highlighted the horses defeated by the winners of the Wood, Louisiana, Florida, Santa Anita and Arkansas Derbies. Although you mentioned the Bluegrass in your closing sentence, you never highlighted the horses the winner of the Bluegrass defeated.

You specified the horses Palace Malice defeated despite the fact that he did not win any of the aforementioned Derby preps.

I gather you do not hold Java’s War in high regards.  He is the only horse that has closed 10L on the highly regarded Verrazano. I like his chances to finish ahead to the super horse on the 1st Saturday in May. Those small May foals are dangerous. How can anyone forget the small May foal Mine That Bird.

Wouldn’t be nice if the much maligned Mr. Leparoux ends up winning the Derby?  In so doing he would certainly silence those that unfairly criticized him for Flashback’s loss in the San Felipe.

Did I mention that Java’s War has the best broodmare sire of the likely starters? In addition to being an Arc winner and dam sire of the winners of most if not all of Europe major G1 races, he is also the dam sire of Auroras Encore the 66-1 winner of the  2013 Grand National contested over 4 miles 31/2 furlongs.

Is The Grand National/Kentucky Derby double doable?

25 Apr 2013 12:23 AM
Mary Zinke

Sally Field and KY.

25 Apr 2013 12:26 AM
JayJay

Rusty : No, I don't really get swayed away from horses I like.  I just didn't think NI will be fast enough to keep up and I've seen what happened to closers in previous derbies.

My pick of WTC in the Rebel was purely based on his Southwest race and based on the field of the Rebel.  I thought he never ran in the Southwest and didn't think the Rebel was a step in class.   I him in the derby based on his run in the Rebel, not who he beat but how he won.  I don't really look at the "who beat who" angle, I watch how they won the race.

There's really not much to go on as far as handicapping this year's derby, at least for me.  I said I have seen no reason to change my top 4 but it doesn't mean I won't.  I look at the derby field and I don't really see any "king kong" in the race, not one horse stands out as being the "best" to win.  I see my other 3 horses the same way.  I liked the way the 4 horses I picked ran their last races, they're well rested and I'll be waiting to see how they do on the track.  I don't see any of the 4 being too far back in the race unless they get post 1 or 17-20.  Mylute has so far shown positive signs he'll take to the track so he's my number 1 pick right now, if the derby was to run this weekend, he'll be on top of my bets and my single in P3s or P4s but lots can change in a week  And as with many of my picks, they normally don't win lol, but it only takes one race and one longshot to make my money back and then some.

25 Apr 2013 1:05 AM
Rusty Weisner

Coldfacts,

I think you understand the inconsistency in my post.  I just treat the Bluegrass differently than dirt races.

I like Java's War plenty, and liked him plenty before the Bluegrass.  I just don't like him to win and. If I play trifectas I will have him, though, but I'm hoping not to play trifectas.  That will be a bad sign:  it means I don't have live tickets.

I like Palace Malice and I'm going to play him for his odds, which I hope to be 15-1.  That he hasn't won should give him those odds, but I don't hold his Bluegrass against him and was impressed, in fact.

25 Apr 2013 6:15 AM
Rusty Weisner

JayJay,

I don't see any standouts, either.  I won't be suprised if Verrazano wins, but I see the same question marks you do.

You're in good company with liking WTC and Mylute.  I'm going to play it different, though.

25 Apr 2013 6:17 AM
Rusty Weisner

Forbidden Apple,

There's also the Oaks/Woodford/Derby P3.  I might play one or both, though I don't know what to do with Point of Entry:  just single or find a possible upset?

I'd be very interested in hearing you opinions on the Oaks.  I liked the closer last year, Summer something, but the track came up completely wrong for that style.

25 Apr 2013 6:20 AM
Pedigree Ann

Yes, Den's Legacy could get in but the trainer has withdrawn him form consideration. He looked worse than he ought to because Alborado pulled the trigger 2f prematurely TWICE. Surprised Baffert rode him back, actually. He was watching his other horse and didn't notice? That's the problem with multi-horse trainers, I suppose - one can lose track of the subtle things.

25 Apr 2013 10:19 AM
Coldfacts

JayJay,

I see you like WTC and Mylute. It is interesting that WTC and Mylute  are connected in some way by the broodmare sire Dehere. The dam sire of hot first crop sire Midnight Lute was Dehere. WTC dam sire is Dehere as well. The dam of Friesan Fire the also ran  2009 Derby favorite was also sired by Dehere.

I have reviewed all the races for Mylute and he appears to make these big moves and then flatten out. This was evident in the Delta Jackpot, Risen Star and LA Derby. I cannot see him sustaining his run in a 10F race. The removal of the blinkers did help but his dam line has stamina limitation and a Derby victory appears remote.

I much prefer WTC. He has an affinity to win when not fancied. His three victories have been at odds of 5-1, 12-1 & 28-1. No other contender in the field has this type record. He will be at an attractive price in the Derby as he will be yet again ignored. If this trend continues this colt his backers will reap lucrative returns yet again.

Mr. Lukas was smart not to start him in the Bluegrass despite the fact that he broke his maiden on the Keeneland surface. After his victory at Keeneland he contested the Kentucky Jockey Club Sakes and finished last. His synthetic to dirt experiment did not work out and once bitten twice shy.

He will be in my exotics.

25 Apr 2013 10:55 AM
Rusty Weisner

Coldfacts,

So why not run WTC in the Arkansas Derby, then?

25 Apr 2013 1:01 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Rusty -

I think you need to add a new phrase to your handicapping arsenal:  'simply not good enough'.  

There was no Bias on 2012 Oaks Day.  The race itself was perfectly fair for all runners. What you didn't know about Believe You Can and Summer Applause was that the former won the FG Oaks despite setting the pace of a Closer favoring Flow - a vs Zip Winner. Thus, she was upgraded going into the Ky Oaks.  The latter was downgraded out of the FG Oaks for failing to go by the winner despite having a favorable pace scenario in which to do so.  When the KY Oaks came up 'neutral',  the superior filly was able to widen the margin between the two.

25 Apr 2013 2:14 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Pedigree Ann -

re: Den's Legacy

I would disagree with your 'excuses' for both of his last two performances.  In the Rebel,  he enjoyed a similar trip to the winner (WTC) in terms of beaten lengths at the first three calls.  The lone difference was the rail position,  a position in which we've maintain was not unfair.

In the AKD,  he was in a similar position (in terms of beaten lengths) as the runner-up Frac Daddy) while being behind the pressured pace factor Falling Sky.  He failed to defeat either horse.  

In assigning 'premature' status to a performance, we believe it's important to understand the pace dynamics that were in play (both races fair for all) as well as considering how the horse in question competed relative to the early positions of those that finished better.

I think the long campaign has taken a toll on him and I give his connections credit for skipping the impossible.

25 Apr 2013 2:31 PM
Rusty Weisner

Plod Boy Phil,

I actually didn't bet Summer Applause in the Oaks double, which I had planned to do, after I saw two track records set Oaks day last year (I took Broadway's Alibi in a single).  Summer Applause was a horse with decent odds I hoped would get a setup and I didn't anticipate it would happen after I saw that. I was, however, locked into P4 tickets that included her with Broadway's Alibi and Grace Hall and was knocked out by Silver Max anyway.  

Anyway, the speed went around the track 1-2 in that race.  So, much as I take your criticisms seriously, in this case I disagree.  She ran a respectable race but had no chance on that track that day. 1-2 and records set is the definition of a biased track.  Of course...turns out from subsequent performances she wasn't good enough anyway, so you win again...but not on the matter of the track!

25 Apr 2013 3:08 PM
Rusty Weisner

Plod Boy Phil,

Now I remember why I liked Summer Applause so much and didn't like Believe You Can.  She couldn't close in a five-horse field in the Fairgrounds Oaks against Believe You Can.  I didn't consider it a strike against her and loved her chances in a field of 14.  I don't want to seem like I'm arguing for the "rightness" of a losing pick (I'm more embarrassed by not grabbing the 14-1 speed along with the 9/2 speed on my eventual ticket) --I'm genuinely curious in knowing how in your methodology you would see lone speed winning in a five-horse field as a "closer-favoring flow".  

25 Apr 2013 3:24 PM
Mike Relva

Coldfacts

Glad you're back.

25 Apr 2013 4:16 PM
KY VET

mary.....correct! oscar speech..........can always count on you for trivia..........

25 Apr 2013 4:21 PM
KY VET

Why do you people keep talking about these slow horses? like the midwest preps..........THIS IS THE DERBY!

25 Apr 2013 4:23 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Rusty -

It seems like every track is biased...against you.  Roughly 8% of all cards over a given year are biased - almost every card you have made a reference to has been biased in your eyes.

As for Believe You Can's FG Oaks,  the pace she set relative to the final time of the race indicated that race should have been won by a closer.  Again, we use track and distance specific models with hundreds of races in the sample. If you were spend a few hours collecting two years worth of 8.5f dirt races at FG,  you would see very few,  if any, w-w winners under the pace scenario and final time she dictated. We call her effort a 'vs Zip Win'.  Being 'lone speed' and setting fast splits relative to the end result is not an advantage.  

Just because two horses go around 1-2 does not mean the track is biased or that the Flow favored speed. For us,  it's a matter of the expected amount of closing our profiles tell us there should be based on each individual race Flow compared to the amount of closing that actually occurs. We consider the top three finishers,  weighted accordingly.  If one does not know what should have occurred,  then how does one make a determination that there was a bias? By 'know',  I do not mean based on handicapping,  but rather on the predictions of statistically sound models.  In other words,  at distance 'x' with split times of 'a', 'b', and 'c' and a final time of 'd',  what would normally happen.  

25 Apr 2013 6:31 PM
Rusty Weisner

Plod Boy Phil,

See?  Don't I make a useful foil for you to describe your system?

I thought it was a good question and I appreciate the answer.

I'll look forward to picks next week.  

25 Apr 2013 7:40 PM
Plod Boy Phil

I think most here would rather not read about it. It's all available on the website.

25 Apr 2013 8:07 PM
Plod Boy Phil

In terms of next weekend 'picks', I probably won't be offering up too much. It's a big weekend for us and giving away too much for free is not fair to paying customers.  The majority of my Derby upgrades and downgrades have been published on this blog already.  Those have cared to pay attention have likely done so.  

25 Apr 2013 8:16 PM
Mike Relva

I'm going with either Orb or Java's War for the win.

25 Apr 2013 11:09 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Mike -

Considering I give JW 'none chance' to win (or be in the top 3), he's a good play.

26 Apr 2013 11:24 AM
Pedigree Ann

Phil - Treating horses like cyphers can work in some areas, but horses aren't interchangeable. They have personalities and quirks of their own and will react differently even given the same situation. Some will split horses without a thought, while others will hesitate. Oxbow is resolute in front, but Denny needs to hit the front as late as possible.

But I expect Denny will be going back to turf and AW, where he has done his best work (G3 winner). Baffert may have thought he had a Peace Rules type (another winner of the Generous S), but it was not to be. Still can't figure out why they didn't send him to the Blue Grass S, with his good form on AW.

26 Apr 2013 11:59 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Ann -

The fact is,  in the Generous,  he made the top before the stretch call and held on to win.  The move was no different than he was asked to make in his last two preps.  The difference is that he is not up to the task against the best of his generation on dirt.  What's the point of qualifying on synthetics for a race on dirt if the horse has proven subpar on dirt?

The Derby, as is every race, is all about the people, not the horses.  Denny deserves to be put into a position to thrive and excel,  not just show up.

26 Apr 2013 12:28 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Ann -

As a fan of DL,  did you think he seemed a bit keyed up in the post parade and warm up compared to his other starts this year ?  I did.

26 Apr 2013 12:29 PM
Mike Relva

Phil

"The Derby is about the people,not the horses". You must spend alot of time hanging out with Shandler.

26 Apr 2013 1:18 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Mike -

It should be about horses, but it isn't.  That's why year after year the 3yr old talent base in this country is decimated by owners trying to get to the race and then running in it.

Horses don't care that they are in the barn at CD for the Derby, but the connections do.

26 Apr 2013 2:00 PM
Mary Zinke

Last Derby points race, Derby Trial:

Officer Alex. Why?  Has handled good or muddy tracks, CD seems to be his home, improved at Oaklawn. Officer Alex, Forty Tales, Zee Bros, Titletown Five.

26 Apr 2013 3:47 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Derby Trial:

Titletown Five (5-1): set the pace of an Extreme Race for Closers in the La Derby.  Turns back from cozy outside draw.  Stevens up only hurts the price.

26 Apr 2013 5:53 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Mary -

Good news. I have assigned Officer Alex bold downgrade status tomorrow.  His last two wins were both aided by favorable Flows. Two back was speed favoring on a track that was playing kindly to speed and last time he caught a near extreme race for closers.

26 Apr 2013 6:57 PM
Mary Zinke

How much do I owe for that?

26 Apr 2013 7:31 PM
Plod Boy Phil

As an 'Aluminum Alloy' account holder,  it's on the house.

26 Apr 2013 8:15 PM
JayJay

Nobody likes Capo Bastone ??  I think he's the class of the field and if he can't win this race, he needs to start going down the class ladder.  I'd be happy to get 5-1 on him but I think he'll probably be more like 3-1 when the gate opens.

6 with 3,4,7,9 with 3,4,7,9

Good luck to all playing real money tomorrow !

26 Apr 2013 11:57 PM
Plod Boy Phil

JayJay -

I think you'll get more than the 5-1 ML, even with Gomez.  The horse just hasn't run fast, ever.  The 3,4 and 9 and maybe even the 1 will likely be more heavily bet than Capo. I certainly hope lots of bettors feel the way you do.

Good luck.

27 Apr 2013 12:29 AM
Coldfacts

Plod Boy Phil,

Why do you consider JW as having no chance to either win or make the top 3?

I concede his sire was not a router. However, his dam sire was runner up in the Arc and was promotes to 1st via disqualification. He also won other significant rout races. As a broodmare sire his mares have produce the winners of the Tattersalls Gold Cup (1 mile, 2F and 110 yards); 2,000 Guineas Stakes (1 mile); Epsom Oaks(1 mile, 4F and 10 yards); Grand National (4 miles 3½F); Arlington Million(1 1/4 miles ); Prince of Wales's Stakes (1 mile and 2F)

The aforementioned races were over turf courses. However, JW has shown he can perform on dirt just as well as on turf and synthetic. The CD surface has been home to a lot of turf and synthetic runners.

Animal Kingdom exited the Spiral to win the Derby and his race preceding the Spiral was on Turf. Both Dullahan and Padi O Prado exited turf and synthetic races en route to 3rd place finishes in the Derby. Street Sense’s final race prior to his Derby victory was on synthetic. Mine That Bird and PoineerOf A Nile recorded their last victories on synthetic before their one, two finish in the Derby.

JW is a genuine router who will be closing wild many will be back pedaling.

27 Apr 2013 12:51 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Simply put, I don't like the horse. The Blue Grass win was only modestly aided by a closers Flow - a Flow that in theory is not enough to downgrade him.  That said,  both the Palace Malice and Charming Kitten ran better races in my eyes - with the the former's clearly the best of the lot.

JW's action is that of a paddling duck with short choppy strides. I can't see him rallying from 25 back after a quarter mile to be a threat. I'm fully aware of Derby history regarding deep closers - I also know that with the exception of Mine That Bird,  the last two did so with very favorable Flows (Giacomo and Street Sense each had it easier than any closer in the last 22 runnings).

While JW is small in stature, I do not sense that he is agile,  nor do I sense he'll have the ability to hesitate if necessary and get back into whatever that is he does with his legs.

I will toss him from the top 3 without a second thought.  It's a game of opinions - that's mine.

27 Apr 2013 1:12 AM
Little Bill

I'm playing Tour Guide in the Trial. He was rollin pretty good before a shin problem.

27 Apr 2013 2:19 AM
Rusty Weisner

Coldfacts,

Dullahan and Paddy O' Prado are perfect support in favor of Plod Boy Phil (and me).

They didn't win the Kentucky Derby.  Dullahan has still never won on dirt.

It doesn't mean he won't hit the board, but that's a different bet than picking him to win.

27 Apr 2013 6:47 AM
Coldfacts

Plod Boy Phil,

It was never by intension to annoy you. I was just interested in the reasons for your conclusion.

You obliged and I appreciate same.

I revisited JW's two dirt starts. The first was in the KJC Stakes where he finished 5th. He broke slowly and was six wide at the top of the stretch and was baeten by 5 1/2L in what was his worst loss. The KJCS came after two tough 8F races on turf and one trouble 8.5F on synthetic. It appeared this small May foal was feeling the effects of said races and was appropriately put away.

He returned 109 days later for his 3YO debut against the vaunted Verrazano and other 3YOs with multiple starts in 2013. He was SIS and fell 13L in arrears to an alleged wonder horse. He closed 10 of those lengths passing all but one en route to a 2nd place finish. He did not plod by but instead was decisive in his sustained gallop.

He fell 14L in arrears in the Bluegrass and ran by all on this occasion. In spite of this terrific effort you prefer the 2nd and 3rd place finishers.

Palace Malice that has one victory to his credit was beaten by Majestic Hussar and Ivestruckanerve in his first two starts as a 3YO and JW was beaten by Verrazano. Charming Kitten who has now been beaten twice by JW has been beaten by lesser and you prefer him as well.

JW has more victories than both Palace Malice and Charming Kitten and is a G1 winner. The obvious question is, do you deserve a downgrade for your conclusion?

27 Apr 2013 9:19 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Coldfacts -

I was not annoyed by the question at all.  Discussing handicapping is what we do here,  at least that's what we should be doing.

To clarify, I prefer the race that Charming Kitten ran as he was much closer to the early pace - thus using more energy early - fell back and rallied almost as well as the winner.  I do not have interest in betting him in the Derby.

As for PM, I recall your desire to remind readers of the exploits of other Derby participants with just one win heading into the Derby. I understand you feel he has been over raced with two 9f races in a short span, but emphasizing his minor accomplishments to date seems a bit two faced.

Perhaps I do deserve a downgrade for taking a less than objective approach with JW.  However,  at anywhere near the anticipated ML of 15-1,  he's a underlay for me.

27 Apr 2013 9:50 AM
Rusty Weisner

Coldfacts,

I'm interested in your further opinion on a horse you like, and that I don't like, WTC.  I don't like the seven weeks and skipping the 1 1/8 preps.  I noticed a comment by Pedigree Ann that she doesn't like the supposedly injury-prone progeny of Unbridle's Song.  Do you think this could be an element in the long rest?

27 Apr 2013 10:01 AM
Coldfacts

Rusty Weisner,

Pedigree Ann forgot the fact that the ill-fated Eight Belles was runner up to Big Brown in the Derby.

Mission Impazible was 9th in a 20 horse Derby field. Song and A Prayers finished 13th but set the fastest 6F fractions in Derby history. Those are 3 horses that represented Unbridled’s Song in the Derby. Giant's Causeway has been represented by about 4 to 5.y

Unbridled’s Song’s offsprings are indeed fragile and injury prone but he is not that bad. He has 100 Stakes winners and this mark could not have bee achieved with fragile horses.

Unbridled’s Song’s sire won the Derby and his dam sire Caro sired Derby winner Winning Colors.

His sire Unbridled is by far the greatest extension of Mr. Prospector. Will Take Charge appears to be tough for a 17 hands Unbridled’s Song horse. He has run some hard races and appears to be to have held up.

His dam is a high profile mare and those rarely produce Derby winners. However, one is certainly overdue. I think he has an excellent chance despite his trainer's poor win percentage in stakes races.

27 Apr 2013 10:39 AM
JayJay

PBP :  Yes, I'm spending $6 on him on a chance that he is a real class horse.  How confident am I that he'll win ?  About 70% but for $6, I think it's a worth bet.  What do you think TTF would go off at ?  He'll have to gun it from the 9 hole, not sure if he'll be able to hang on but it's only a mile so good luck !

27 Apr 2013 1:53 PM
Rusty Weisner

Coldfacts,

Eight Belles kind of demonstrates the point about fragility.

My question was actually whether you think the surprising seven weeks is due to soundness concerns.  Still curious.

27 Apr 2013 2:00 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Did not mean to degrade the pick.  Just making conversation - posts without responses seem like talking to oneself in an empty room.

Would love to get the ML on T5, but Stevens could cost me a point or so. The horse is much less than 5-1 to win it in my book as I fear only Forty Tales,  one that I know Pete had a high opinion of earlier this year.

I really like the P4 sequence if it stays on the turf as I have three singles, including a 'bold'.

27 Apr 2013 2:06 PM
Little Bill

The #9 post is the best post in this field, at the CD mile.

Post Rebel interview, immediately after the race, Lucas said he might train WTC up to the race. The guy had a plan from the get go. I think he just knows the horse. He has taken his time with this one before. He did rush him back after WTC didn't run a lick in the JC at CD.  

27 Apr 2013 5:40 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Koufax -

If you are out there, I was wondering if you took heed to what I wrote on the site about Kate's Event following her last win.

27 Apr 2013 6:35 PM
KY VET

red tesla runs back off win off year layoff.....interesting, he showed very bad signs in that win.........5/2 low price to take.......he ran fast , without being asked...so it could go either way....if he runs straight, could explode.....but im guessing he has something wrong....

27 Apr 2013 6:38 PM
KY VET

thought so.......red tesla...fav......off the board........knowledge is king!

27 Apr 2013 6:43 PM
Pedigree Ann

Rusty = I have no idea if it some soundness problem is the reason Lukas gave him a 7-week layoff. It wouldn't surprise me, but I have no insider knowledge.

Coldfacts - Never said that Unbridled's Song sired plugs; a lot of them can run fast, they just don't run very long at a time. A campaign of two, three, four races, maybe, then layoff for injury, rinse, repeat. Or early retirement.

The problem seems to be most pronounced with entire males; could have to do with stallion weight on the front end which I mentioned on another thread. Doesn't matter why - I was reporting an observation, not an explanation.

27 Apr 2013 7:04 PM
Plod Boy Phil

VET -

Derby Trial pick ?

27 Apr 2013 7:43 PM
JayJay

PBP : He doesn't know who to pick, he's not that smart yet.  He'll come back and talk about the picks of people who did not win and explain why he knew all along that they won't win... of course, this would be after the race.  He is of course, the most impotent man in the world.

27 Apr 2013 8:23 PM
JayJay

Ooops, I meant, important...or is it interesting, can't remember really.

27 Apr 2013 8:33 PM
KY VET

derby trial doesnt entice me phil....i agree with you titletown ran bad because pace was too hot......but todays pace looks hotter.....but they are cheaper....liked him a little on paper, but saw something i didnt like on video.......mixed on him....i will pick the pletcher horse forty tales.......he could be sour, but think time off helps.....sure sets up for off the pace horse......if i didnt see the video, i might have picked t5.....so i cant say i dont like him............small bet 40tales.............still laughing at tiz the minister being huge fav.........tired horse needs break.......

27 Apr 2013 8:38 PM
Plod Boy Phil

a strong finish deserving of an lol,  but no ____ smiley face...well done

27 Apr 2013 8:39 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Yeah, Tiz a Min had little to no chance of winning that race - he'll be in cheap really soon.

Just don't think Titletown Five need the top - see him rating off any dual and finishing well - the win at CD does not hurt.  The only horse that concerns me is Forty Tales.  I could be wrong about T5,  but will be paying to find out.

27 Apr 2013 8:53 PM
Plod Boy Phil

interesting

27 Apr 2013 8:55 PM
Plod Boy Phil

That nose beat for Ivanho proved very costly for me and mine....never dreamed that the 5 would run so big off a 13 month gap

27 Apr 2013 9:00 PM
Little Bill

They seem to be closing at CD. If T5 don't go, I would guess T Guide will. Deep closer might have a shot.

27 Apr 2013 10:10 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Seems like a couple of the dirt races have been a bit too aggressive up front....interesting board,  though the 3 is favored in the horizontal finishes.

27 Apr 2013 10:28 PM
Plod Boy Phil

ML right on the money

27 Apr 2013 10:29 PM
Plod Boy Phil

ZipFest indeed -

Nice call VET

JayJay good read with Capo B...both took advantage of the FLOW.

Doink for me.

27 Apr 2013 10:44 PM
Mary Zinke

Mutual doink, Phil;)  Friend had very nice day at BHP!  And, very nice payouts on a couple.  p.s. about the aluminum alloy reference, it's a long e sound, but I'm not picky about that.    

27 Apr 2013 11:02 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Fugue-

They certainly did have a shot.

First half miles in 45 and second half miles in 50+ are very favorable to closers.

27 Apr 2013 11:02 PM
Plod Boy Phil

That's just silly....

27 Apr 2013 11:11 PM
JayJay

CB closed all the way from Egypt and almost nipped Forty Tales at the wire.  I thought CB was the better horse in that race, Gomez just left him too much to do.

27 Apr 2013 11:12 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Glad to hear it Mary....the friend having a good day part,  not the mutual doink.

27 Apr 2013 11:13 PM
KY VET

pletcher haters need to keep betting.............not that you have any money left............it really is stupid.......

27 Apr 2013 11:36 PM
Coldfacts

Rusty Weisner,

As Previously mentioned WTC broke his maiden on the synthetic track at Keeneland. His next start was at CD where he finished last.

Lukas specified that he did not want to run him in the Bluegrass as he would then have to change his stride for the dirt at CD.

I am of the opinion that his decision was based on the last place finish subsequent to his Keeneland victory.

He had Oxbow in the AK Derby and so there was no need to start WTC  since he had enough points.

27 Apr 2013 11:43 PM
KY VET

Again.....coldcuts pretends he knows........lukas didnt run, because he has run too many races....he is doing whats best for the horse....period.......has nothing to do with points...track...stride.....anything you can make up........he got last in that race because he was overmatched....34 to 1 odds that day......

28 Apr 2013 12:17 AM
Little Bill

Took a beat down. Too tupid to play the closers on top.

28 Apr 2013 12:36 AM
JayJay

KY VET :  I guess you're not pretending you know when you state the reason was because he has "ran" too many races right ?  You actually know this for a fact ?  Like Wayne told you over drinks or maybe a phone call, no wait, Wayne sends you reports via email ?  After all, you're the most impo...wait, I used that already.

28 Apr 2013 1:14 AM
Coldfacts

Uncaptured, Dewey Square, Tesseron, Fear  The Kitten, Positively, Track Rocker, Joha, Silver Tongued, Indiano Jones and Lew and Mike  that finished ahead of Will Take Charge in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes are all in the Derby field.  How many Derby preps did the aforementioned horses win? WTC won two. If he was over matched then he has no chance of finishing ahead of Java’s War and Frac Daddy.

What nonsense!

28 Apr 2013 1:22 AM
Coldfacts

I had several doubles closing on Capo. Mr. Gomez needs to consul Mr. Burrell regarding how to utilize the rail to his horses advantage.

How does he save ground heading into the turn and the angles six wide to negate said advantage.  

Bad decision that cost his horse a victory.

28 Apr 2013 8:35 AM
Rusty Weisner

I've got an open question.

Who's won the Derby with blinkers, and has anyone won it with first-time blinkers?

28 Apr 2013 8:39 AM
Rusty Weisner

Coldfacts, Pedigree Ann --

You can probably guess my game.  I don't want to bet this horse, but have nagging reservations and am trying to steel myself to leave him off.  D. Wayne Lukas is not going to let me or anyone else here on any secrets.  Just don't like that skipping the toughest test and won't bet him.

The other horse I don't like that nevertheless worries me is Overanalyze.  Slow time and figure against second and third-placed finishers that ran slow elsewhere.  I'll cross my figures and hope that with yesteday's workout he'll now be the "wise-guy" pick.

28 Apr 2013 8:47 AM
Rusty Weisner

I know there was one Derby winner who wore blinkers.

28 Apr 2013 8:54 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Coldfacts-

re: Derby Trial

-Let's add last out MSW winner Zee Bros to the list of short priced failures. Big figs vs soft competiton....

- I just watched Capo's run for the third time.  Gomez did exactly what the situation required. You made the same flawed point regarding the San Felipe - when horses have gathered that much momentum, expecting them to hug the rail is irrational.  Also,  there was a 'wall' of horses fading at different rates.  Angling out in the lane does not cost anywhere near the same amount of ground loss as doing so on the turn.  Not getting stopped is the most crucial factor when on a deep closer.

28 Apr 2013 10:07 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Rusty-

You do love to torture yourself making decisions about horses....

especially this one.

Good luck

28 Apr 2013 10:09 AM
Rusty Weisner

Plod Boy Phil,

It's exquisite torture.  

I've had luck a couple of times playing the first-time blinkers angle (though both were low level races, both maiden claiming, I think), so maybe I'll just suck it up and take it an opportunity for improvement, per any other race.

The open question remains, though, if anyone knows offhand.  Otherwise I'll happily track it down myself.

28 Apr 2013 10:54 AM
Plod Boy Phil

I don't know the answer to the blinker on in the Derby question,  though am willing to bet that few have tried it and even less have succeeded.

28 Apr 2013 11:04 AM
Pedigree Ann

Phil - Why run a 3yo who is good on AW in a $750K race ($450K to the winner) on AW? The Blue Grass is more than Derby prep; it is an opportunity to make good money, get a G1 score, and let the Blue Grass breeders have a look at him running well. It's all about making the stallion deal and all of those things are steps in that direction.

28 Apr 2013 12:07 PM
Rusty Weisner

My guess is none.

28 Apr 2013 12:16 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Ann-

I take it we are back on Denny. If so, it's a very good point that would have been even more compelling had it been put forth prior to the running of the Arkansas Derby.  Maybe you did clamor for him to be in the BG and not the AKD before hand and I missed it.  Either way,  it supports the notion that owners and trainers are in general an unreliable source of knowledge and insight regarding their own.

28 Apr 2013 12:32 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Forbidden Apple -

I like your horse Purim's Dancer today at Hollywood.  She gets an upgrade for the last in which she was behind the winner and runner up early in a Speed favoring Flow. Maybe she'll look better in the post parade today.  

28 Apr 2013 1:35 PM
Mary Zinke

Hollendorfer girls, Purim's Dancer and Moone in the Wilshire.  8,1,4,5.

28 Apr 2013 1:47 PM
KY VET

phil....coldcuts and jj are ignorant.....capo got a dream scenario.....perfect ride.....wasnt going by.....look at gallop out........gomez is one of the best jocks ever.........just excuses......youre spot on.....

28 Apr 2013 7:50 PM
KY VET

horse #1 bullet work.......5f......lets just say it was faster than normandy invasion's work........yea......fast.................runs sat............

28 Apr 2013 7:55 PM
Plod Boy Phil

If only I could pick a winner....

Two solid singles in the Late Pick 4 at CD on Tuesday.

28 Apr 2013 8:24 PM
Plod Boy Phil

VET -

I'm not buying that either one is ignorant. Perhaps incorrect in the assessment here.  JayJay did like the runner-up and had the winner underneath in his posted play - certainly an opinion that had 'cash' written all over it.  

Personally, I prefer to accept losses as part of the game rather than blaming riders for moving too soon when chasing last out MSW winners in stakes races....

28 Apr 2013 8:30 PM
KY VET

Ignorant!  The guy doesnt use the form! that is the meaning of ignorant...........

28 Apr 2013 8:40 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Mary-

Nice pick on the Wilshire winner.

28 Apr 2013 8:51 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Just read that my $2 Future Bet on Code West is still not officially dead.....I'm alive, I'm alive.

28 Apr 2013 8:53 PM
Little Bill

Palace Malice blinkers- Looks like a desperation move. Hopefully TP is giving PM the best chance to run big. The common thought is they break better but I have heard they'll do it to get them to finish better.?

Remember when they put them on Mucho Macho Man? Everybody was like "why". It was because he would not pass anybody in the stretch. He threw a clunker in that race,but, I don't think it was because of the blinkers.

I'm already vested in P Malice and this move doesn't help my confidence. I will defer to Pletcher on this.

28 Apr 2013 9:06 PM
KY VET

watch palice change back to the wrong lead in the stretch, especially in last race...he prob. would have won if he didnt do that..he lost mo...............that is why blinkers were added....................

28 Apr 2013 10:10 PM
KY VET

its dead plod.....ive heard he worked bad........can you beleive the tiz isnt out yet? dumb owners trying to ruin him.......tell me hes not gonna run!

28 Apr 2013 10:12 PM
Mary Zinke

Phil,Thanks. I wasn't expecting her to travel from GGF(before I saw the entries for the Wilshire) since they have Top Kisser now running well in the same type of races, but then another roommate(stablemate) ran with Dolly today--so much for that theory.  I didn't get the ex, or the super, but that was fun screaming Dolly home. $8 winner, since she'd lost to a boy and really doesn't like soft going, which accounted for a few of her losses earlier this year. I thought she might be bet down to favorite.  Another big weekend for her barn !

KY, Stop being finite if you don't want to be finite. (Stalker alert)

28 Apr 2013 10:17 PM
Little Bill

Thanks Vet. I like the sound of that better. I will instead defer to you.

28 Apr 2013 10:21 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Yes, I did read that about Tiz a Min - he'a already a $50 claimer and falling quickly.  What, the connections can't afford tickets to the events and 3rd floor clubhouse seats ?

Are they going to train Code West into the Belmont or use the Derby as a prep.....I'm dead, I'm dead.

28 Apr 2013 10:25 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Mary -

I was going to close with,  "so why the long face ?"....$8 is $8 - well done.

28 Apr 2013 10:26 PM
JayJay

KY VET : How does it feel to have an "ignorant" pick more winners than you ?  What does that make you ?  I'm thinking maybe "Loser" might be applicable...is that how you feel ?

Did Mary hit a winner again ??  Geez, that girl...

28 Apr 2013 11:10 PM
Coldfacts

The Kentucky Oaks field is loaded with big time talent. Mr. Mott  is very confident his filly Close Hatches will deliver a victory. I guess Mr. Baffert and Mr. Pletcher are equally as confident about Midnight Lucky and Dreaming Of Julia.

Despite the credentials of the above three, I like the Friends Lake filly Rose To Gold. She won her first two starts by a combined 26 1/2L. She was then shipped to Keeneland to contest the G1 Alcibiad on the AW and she finished 12th beaten 29 1/4L.  I guess Footbridge was not the only horse that did not relish the synthetic surface.She returned to dirt for her next four starts that produced 3 wins in graded races and a 2nd place finish in the Martha Washington.

Rose To Gold’s sire Friends Lake has to be one of the best bred sons of A P Indy. He won the FL derby in a 37-1 upset. He has not done particularly well as a sire but this filly might just relaunch his career.  Her dam sire Preakness & Belmont winner Tabasco Cat came very close to being a Derby winning dam sire with Ice Box. Her dam was unraced and when well-bred unraced mares produce horses with such talent, they are always dangerous.

From a physical perspective she is dwarfed by many in the field. However, from a pedigree perspective she towers over all. She has tactical speed and covers ground effortlessly. She also has the stamina to be extremely effective in the final eight.  Her name already contains the word ‘Rose’ and she can certainly wear the garland made of the flower.

28 Apr 2013 11:52 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Fillies get Lilies.

29 Apr 2013 10:14 AM
Rusty Weisner

Fugue for Tinhorns,

Pletcher said explicitly that he put the blinkers on because of the lead changing.  He thought the horse was bothered by tractor marks.  So it's not to get hustled up early; he doesn't have that problem.  I'm planning on betting the horse.  At the odds I think it's worth gambling on improvement.

29 Apr 2013 11:09 AM
Rusty Weisner

I'm not sure whether I like the news that Wise Dan will join Point of Entry in the Woodford.  At least he splits the money with Point of Entry, but I am unwilling to take a stab on P4 and P3 bets against two legitimate favorites.  I'll have to pick one over the other as a single; picking both on any ticket is the worst of both worlds:  it's both losing on chalk and eating it.  I know Wise Dan is a miler but that's hardly disqualifying.  So I don't know who I'd pick.

Of course, if anyone other than these two wins, it's gigantic.

29 Apr 2013 11:46 AM
Rusty Weisner

Coldfacts,

The story on the trainer for that horse is interesting.

Yes, it's lilies.  Though the color for the day is pink.

29 Apr 2013 11:54 AM
Coldfacts

Well gentlemen, I always thought roses were more for women.  

PBP:

I am sure you meant Oaks winners.

Fillies have won the Derby and I assume they wear the roses. Thanks

29 Apr 2013 1:06 PM
Mary Zinke

Forbidden Apple, I didn't check if you have already posted, "What? No respect for Flat Out?"  Congrats to the old man. He has now attained LOVE status, from me.

29 Apr 2013 1:19 PM
Coldfacts

There is an interesting longshot in the Oaks field by the name Seaneen Girl.

She was a $5K yearling purchase that won the G2 Golden Rod at 31-1. She was off for 4 month after that race and returned to finish 4L in the FG Oaks won by Unlimited Budget. Although beaten handily she showed a lot of energy and appeared to have wanted more real estate.

In a subsequent report her trainer stated she had a setback (Bruised Foot) and was affixed with glues on shoes for her Oaks effort. With that run under her belt and the fact that she will be returning to the location of her biggest victory, she could be sitting on a very big race.

The ultra-talented Rosie has pick up the mount and she has created her fair share of major upsets in the past. This filly must be a useful exotics inclusion.

29 Apr 2013 1:38 PM
Rusty Weisner

Though I had gotten comfortable tossing him already, I'm glad Govenor Charlie is out of there.  Less speed.

29 Apr 2013 1:44 PM
Little Bill

I missed Pletcher saying that about the blinks, thanks.

29 Apr 2013 2:21 PM
Ranagulzion

This years Kentucky Oaks looks like one of the best quality fields assembled in years. There will be no major upset in this one because it will take the ultra smart to break the strangle hold of the top four: Dreaming of Julia, Midnight Lucky, Unlimited Budget and Close Hatches.

Todd Pletcher might want to consider sending Dreaming of Julia to the Derby, now that the points system has suffered a meltdown. He could "hog" the Derby trifecta for sure with a move like that and still be represented very well by DoJ's deputy, Unlimited Budget in the Oaks.

29 Apr 2013 2:24 PM
JerseyBoy

Lines Of Battle has been left in the field for the 2000 Guineas on Saturday. Strange.

It might be just out of caution.

29 Apr 2013 3:00 PM
Rusty Weisner

Ranagulzion,

"Todd Pletcher might want to consider sending Dreaming of Julia to the Derby, now that the points system has suffered a meltdown."

I don't understand.

29 Apr 2013 3:18 PM
Ranagulzion

Rusty,

Points have become irrelevant with presently only nineteen colts set to go ...thusly zero points is enough to get the big flying filly involved. I'm not dreaming, am I?

29 Apr 2013 5:22 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Fugue-

You were right on the money regarding the CD surface Saturday night - severely Closer Biased. Add in a Closer favoring Flow in the Derby Trial and you have a Extreme Race for Closers.  

29 Apr 2013 6:54 PM
Coldfacts

The 2013 Kentucky Derby can be won by any of 5 to 6 colts in the field.  While PPs and exercise reports can help punters in final selections, I think evaluation of the competing jockeys and their likely post-race stories can be a useful. It’s the Derby and crazier approaches have used.

Mr. Gomez is still searching for his 1st winner. PioneerOf  A Nile and Lookin At Lucky certainly had better credentials than Vyjack. Unlikely to feature in the post-race story!

Rosie could become the first female rider to win the Derby. Pants On Fire was certainly better than Mylute. Unlikely to feature in the post-race story!

Johnny V had his Derby winner via the untimely injury sustained by a fellow jockey. Despite high profile colt he is unlikely to feature in the post-race story!

Krigger to follow Gutierrez as back to back first time winners for the same trainer is too much to even imagine. Unlikely to feature in the post-race story!

Gary Stevens time has passed and is unlikely to feature in the post-race story.

J. Rosario is having a record year. The Derby would be icing on the cake. His story has already been written in the Dubai WC.

Mr. Leparoux failed to win with the likes of Dialed In and Union Rags. His banishment for Flashback would make for an interesting post-race redemption story.

29 Apr 2013 7:31 PM
Mary Zinke

? Coldfacts.  Shouldn't I go by how the horses have been running and how they are expected to run against each other in the Derby?

29 Apr 2013 8:15 PM
Mike Relva

News of Baffert not running in Derby should be a lesson to some of you that forcast in Jan. that Baffert is winning on the first Saturday in May. I don't get it.

29 Apr 2013 8:59 PM
Pedigree Ann

Phil -   I did wonder in type why B-squared was considering the Arky Derby instead of the Blue Grass ahead of time, but maybe not on this forum. Know I did in one of my Yahoo groups (invitation only), this one a bunch of friends from the old CITGO Pick-6 game that didn't want to lose touch.

30 Apr 2013 10:25 AM
Rusty Weisner

To my great disappointment I won't be able to go on an odyssey through the entire Churchill Downs Derby card, races 1 through lucky 13.  Something came up and I'll only be able to catch the Woodford and Derby , with bets around those races.  The Woodford is looking like it may be a great race.  Besides Point of Entry and Wise Dan, I've heard Bright Thought mentioned as a possibility.  Silver Max, Slim Shadey, Geranimo & Optimizer are other likely entrants.

30 Apr 2013 10:49 AM
Rusty Weisner

Ones I'm playing:

Palace Malice

Orb

Verrazano

Revolutionary

Itsmyluckyday

Goldencents

In all likelihood one of these will get an inside post and I will eliminate him, so that'll make five.

30 Apr 2013 11:02 AM
-Keelerman

Rusty Weisner;

Since 1903, thirty-six horses won the Kentucky Derby while wearing blinkers. I'll try and dive a little deeper later today and find statistics on first-time blinkers, but for the moment, here are the thirty-six . . .

2011 Animal Kingdom

1998 Real Quiet

1995 Thunder Gulch

1987 Alysheba

1976 Bold Forbes

1974 Cannonade

1973 Secretariat

1972 Riva Ridge

1970 Dust Commander

1967 Proud Clarion

1966 Kauai King

1964 Northern Dancer

1963 Decidedly

1959 Tomy Lee

1954 Determine

1951 Count Turf

1946 Assault

1943 Count Fleet

1941 Whirlaway

1940 Gallahadion

1939 Johnstown

1935 Omaha

1933 Brokers Tip

1931 Twenty Grand

1930 Gallant Fox

1929 Clyde Van Dusen

1927 Whiskery

1926 Bubbling Over

1925 Flying Ebony

1923 Zev

1919 Sir Barton

1917 Omar Khayyam

1909 Wintergreen

1908 Stone Street

1907 Pink Star

1904 Elwood

Two things struck me while compiling this list. One, the fact that only four horses since the late 1970s have won the Derby with blinkers; and two, the fact that seven of the eleven Triple Crown winners wore blinkers.

-Keelerman

30 Apr 2013 12:46 PM
Forbidden Apple

Rusty Weisner,

Thank you for telling me about the Super Pick 3, I'm definitely playing that wager. Close Hatches/Wise Dan/Itsmyluckyday & Orb is how I see it. A Close Hatches/Wise Dan/All pick 3 is also a smart play for me.

In the KY Oaks, Dreaming of Julia will be a heavy favorite after winning in a time of 1:48 4/5 for a 1 1/8 mile race at Gulfstream Park. Either you think she is the next coming of Rachel Alexandra or she is vulnerable. I happen to not believe her 114 beyer effort and will be playing against her. Rose to Gold, Midnight Lucky, Dreaming of Julia, Unlimited Budget, Beholder, and Close Hatches all have good early foot. From the outside post Rosario should be able to pop out of the gate and cut over to get a good early position. Close Hatches is sitting on a big race and will be right near the front. When the battle starts down the stretch, this filly will dig in with Rosario and hold off Dreaming of Julia and the rest. I'm guessing that Rose to Gold really wants the lead. The trip is up to Rosario, he's smart and on fire, look for him in the winner's circle on friday.

The Woodford Reserve will be the race of the year! Bright Thought will be on the lead if he enters the race. Look for Wise Dan and Point of Entry to stalk the pace. They both need to be careful not to let Bright Thought get away with an easy lead or else he will be long gone. Point of Entry is sharp right now and will be tough to hold off down the stretch. Wise Dan however is a monster and will dig in down the stretch to hit the wire in front again. This is tough for me because I am a fan of all 3 horses that I mentioned.

The KY Derby is the toughest race of my pick 3, but I am highly confident in both Itsmyluckyday and Orb. Again, Itsmyluckyday will be around 15-1 and he can win with the right stalking trip. This time around he will be much sharper and at the top of the stretch I see him on the lead with Goldencents. Orb will be right behind him, ready to pounce! Orb looks like the best win candidate to me, I'm betting both horses in all exotics and playing a win ticket on both.

Ranagulzion,

The points system has not had a meltdown. I don't get your crying about Dreaming of Julia or Unlimited Budget not being in the KY Derby. Both horses did not enter one single race against colts. Remember Devil May Care, let's see her beat her foes in the Oaks and then if she is good enough, enter the Preakness and quit crying.

30 Apr 2013 12:59 PM
Rusty Weisner

Forbidden Apple,

Thanks for your recommendations.  The Woodford has caused me a lot of anguish the past two years.  In 2011 after Little Mike scratched I liked Get Stormy as a possibility to steal it...but didn't single him.  Last year when I saw them both in the same race I thought it set up for Turallure and Doubles Partner, but Little Mike stole it.  Traumatized by that, I'm going to take a good hard look at Silver Max.

I'm playing two horses predominantly in the Derby, one a closer (Orb), one a horse I hope to get first jump, and my longshot, Palice Malice.  

I'm going to play a big boxed exacta with these two.  

The other closer I like, but less than Orb, is Revolutionary.  The other near-the-lead types are IMLD, Verrazano and Goldencents.  I don't like what a wet track is going to do to IMLD's odds, but I like the positive indication he gave in the slop (though generally I think it's overrated, or misinterpreted, as a factor).  What the possibility of a wet track does is cement my preference for putting early speed up there; I want clean trips up front.  But Orb and Revolutionary strike me as best, so I want to do exactas that combine one of these two off-the-pace horses with one of those four pressers, with a preference for Orb over Revolutionary.  So, among others, I will also have a small ticket with the same exacta as yours.  Between $150 and $200 total.

I wish I had an opinion on the Oaks.  Good luck with Close Hatches.  A lot of folks like her here.

30 Apr 2013 1:22 PM
Rusty Weisner

Forbidden Apple,

I just took a good hard look at that one and looks outclassed and off form.  But Dale Romans spooks me on turf after last year.  I don't know if Bright Thought will be there -- that was from a DRF article in March.

30 Apr 2013 1:30 PM
1:08 and change

Mike,

With all due respect, I don't understand the Baffert bashing.  The guy should be commended for not rushing these horses in.

To not think he would have a chance in January is a complete farce.  The guy has won three of these and has been runner up who knows how many times.  Twice was noses away from the Triple Crown.  Finished 2nd in every race last year by a combined length???

It's his job to make horses run fast.  That's what he's paid to do and he's probably the best in the game at it.  Hate all you want but the guy is a legend.

30 Apr 2013 1:32 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Forbidden Apple -

If you do not believe DoJ's BSF of 114,  what do you think it should be and,  more importantly,  how does her figure impact the figures for the Fla Derby horses that you are high on.  It was my expectation of the Fla Derby performances that led me to accurately guess at DoJ's BSF before it was posted.

I think a better way to look at her figure is that she is unlikely to repeat it as it was far beyond her previous baseline. The huge improvement was, as I expressed earlier, a surprise for the Pletcher camp.  They have nothing to blame but themselves for not getting the chance to lose badly in the Derby.

30 Apr 2013 1:39 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Rusty -

Neither winner of the last two Woodford's 'stole' the race - each went wire to wire under fair dynamics for all styles. Both Little Mike and Get Stormy were multiple Graded Stakes winners coming into the race at 8f and beyond.  Bright Thoughts is a one time G2 winner at 12f, an accomplishment that leaves him unqualified to compete with G1 horses of this caliber at 9f.  Rates 'none chance'.

Mine That Bird won a sloppy Derby from far back.  Ice Box rallied to be second from far back.  Super Saver was 6th early and had a double digit BL12 (beaten lengths at the first two calls combined).  Only Go for Gin went 'w-w' (a head back at 1st call)in the wet going over the last 22 years.  

30 Apr 2013 1:54 PM
Rusty Weisner

Forbidden,

It's interesting how Wise Dan and Point of Entry are meeting at a middle distance.  It doesn't look like a liability for either of them.

30 Apr 2013 1:56 PM
Rusty Weisner

Plod Boy Phil,

Didn't Broadway's Alibi have some kind of huge figure coming in last year?

30 Apr 2013 1:59 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Rusty -

Broadway's Alibi was downgraded coming into last year's Oaks as the wire to wire 'with Plod winner' of a near Extreme Race for Speed in the 8f Comely.  He prior race was a 'neutral' destruction of the Forward Gal.

FYI, Dreaming of Julia is NOT a racing flow downgrade - her win registered as 'neutral' for us. She just ran out of her skin.  The fact that it isn't downgraded gives me cause for pause to throw her out. I believe not in bouncing but in the notion that big figs earned under favorable Flow or against clearly weaker competition are less likely to be repeated.  My negative sentiments are directed at her whining owner and the baseless bashing of the system.  The guy would be a lot more credible if he stepped up and said he made a bad decision not to try the Fla Derby.

30 Apr 2013 2:17 PM
Rusty Weisner

Plod Boy Phil,

Ice Box didn't win, so strike that example.  

You're also forgetting another recent wet Derby....

30 Apr 2013 2:19 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Smarty Jones was an up close presser. My point was, as it's been for years,  is that horses sitting on top efforts fire them on broken glass if need be.  Horses ready for a backwards move will readily do so in the slop.

Just look at PPs for as many horses as possible and note good races and bad races in the slop - most show both.

It works for people to.  

30 Apr 2013 2:33 PM
Rusty Weisner

Plod Boy Phil,

Super Saver did not come from way back.  And look who set the pace that year:  a turf miler.

I'll Have Another was behind by IDENTICAL lengths to Super Saver at second and third calls.  

Was he a closer?  I don't think so.  He was always within striking distance.  In fact, Super Saver's chart call says "within easy striking distance", while IHA "easily gained forward position".  I'm looking for this kind of horse.

30 Apr 2013 2:34 PM
Rusty Weisner

Plod Boy Phil,

Despite this little back and forth, I don't think rain is going to affect my picks.  I still like either Orb or Revolutionary to get up for the exacta.  A horse like Goldencents could hate slop, but we don't know, and his odds are going to zoom up in it anway, so why not keep him?

I responded to a comment you made on the mud thread where you make that point about mud accentuating bad form.  Justified or not, I tend to play the inverse:  I think it exaggerates a good horse whipping the field.  See Vyjack's and Revolutionary's Beyers.

30 Apr 2013 2:43 PM
Rusty Weisner

Plod Boy Phil,

"I believe not in bouncing but in the notion that big figs earned under favorable Flow or against clearly weaker competition are less likely to be repeated."

I don't think I'm the only one who agrees with this.  She's an unappetizing wager.

30 Apr 2013 2:48 PM
Rusty Weisner

"Smarty Jones was an up close presser. My point was, as it's been for years,  is that horses sitting on top efforts fire them on broken glass if need be.  Horses ready for a backwards move will readily do so in the slop."

I agree and enjoy hearing your opinions on the subject.  I like speculating on what crazy things rain will do to various horses' odds.

30 Apr 2013 3:00 PM
Plod Boy Phil

For what it's worth:

We measure the the location of any horse in terms of it's BL12 - beaten lengths at the first two calls combined.

Over the last 22 runnings,  the average BL12 for the Derby winner is ~15.  If one discards the two highest and two lowest, the average remains ~15.  

This does not tell us the BL12 of this year's winner.

30 Apr 2013 3:01 PM
Plod Boy Phil

If given a choice between DoJ and Midnight Lucky at similar odds, I will readily take DoJ, regression or no regression.

The latter will not be on any rolling Pick tickets or in my Oaks/Derby DD tickets.

30 Apr 2013 3:11 PM
Rusty Weisner

Plod Boy Phil,

re: "BL12"

I can easily envision Verrazano, IMLD and Palace Malice with that running line. I think it's even possibile for Goldencents, though I think he may try to wire (in which case I'll take him anwyay -- I like a reasonable candidate to wire, as opposed to a Trinniberg).

30 Apr 2013 3:14 PM
Rusty Weisner

Keelerman,

That was very kind of you to chase all that down.  I can confidently predict that the answer to the second question will be zero.

Now give us a morning line, one for a dry track, one for wet.

30 Apr 2013 3:41 PM
Rusty Weisner

Forbidden Apple,

If there's rain I think your horse goes from 15-1 to 10-1.  I think mine goes from 18-1 to 25-1, as he got beat in the slop in his Alw.  That was 7f though, against a very fast horse.

30 Apr 2013 3:47 PM
KY VET

Ok........ive tried....to have patience......gave him a free pass.......but, i can only take so much.......is there anybody on this blog, as WISHY WASHY as rusty?   I mean, come on man! Blinkers this, track bias that, stalker, pace, post.......blah blah..............you , along with most on here, are really talking about the wrong things! ITS THE HORSE! bet the best horse, on the big day.........youre worried about jocks? blinkers? track condition? trainer? post? number of letters in the name? color?......

30 Apr 2013 5:12 PM
Forbidden Apple

Give him a break, track condition and post position are very important. It's best to know what you like and then bet on it with confidence.

30 Apr 2013 5:44 PM
Forbidden Apple

Plod,

Yes Dreaming of Julia ran 2 seconds faster than Orb, not in the same race. I don't believe for one second that she is 10 lengths better than Orb. I don't know how to explain the slow pace and final time of the FL Derby. I have said over and over again that Itsmyluckyday is much better than his latest effort and will run big in the KY Derby. He is a true stalker, yet in the FL Derby Orb was right with him when the pace was slow. Both horses should improve again, they have to keep Goldencents honest up front.

30 Apr 2013 5:55 PM
Plod Boy Phil

FA-

Important point. Higher quality opponents put stress on all athletes.  Stress negatively impacts performance. Fact is, thanks to the owners, we'll never know how she would have performed in that race on the same day, though I'm inclined to believe she beats them, though perhaps not by two seconds.  Either way,  that was quite a few weeks ago - they are all different today than they were then.

30 Apr 2013 6:17 PM
Plod Boy Phil

VET et al -

Anyone up for a 'Winner a Day' contest at Churchill this week ?

Weds - Saturday,  one horse.

I'll start:

CD, Race 6, 2 Bell by the Ridge.

30 Apr 2013 6:20 PM
Ranagulzion

Although the Kentucky Oaks field is of the highest calibre, Dreaming of Julia will be the queen of the party over Midnight Lucky.

Oh The Woodford ...what an under the radar thriller? Wise Dan will pack too many guns for the big turf horse, Point of Entry at this distance, which ever way the race is run ...Wise Dan is one fast dude that can sit and wait for POE to come to him if the jock cares to do so, and outsprint Point of Entry to the wire. Otherwise he can make all and turn it into an anticlimax. This one should be quite a spectacle. Silver Max showed the potential as a 3YO to hold his own amongst the principals at this stage of his development, now being a 4YO, therefore he could split the big two and make the exactor.

Its Verrazano to win the Derby from his stablemate Overanalyze and Itsmyluckyday.    

30 Apr 2013 6:29 PM
Rusty Weisner

KY VET,

Ah, color.  I like those yellow polka dots on Palace Malice.  That cancels out my worries about the blinkers.

30 Apr 2013 6:57 PM
KY VET

good god phil......can you pick a tougher race? i cant even pick that race.....looks like cattle drive down the stretch.....good luck with that.......

30 Apr 2013 7:27 PM
Plod Boy Phil

VET-

You can pick any horse on the CD card each day.

That's my pick for tomorrow.

30 Apr 2013 7:37 PM
Rusty Weisner

I love the quote from the owner of Giant Finish:  "You only live once".

The same is true of the horse.

30 Apr 2013 7:38 PM
Mary Zinke

I'll take the 3 in your CD r6, Phil. Under "et al".  

30 Apr 2013 7:52 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Rusty-

That's good,  really good.

30 Apr 2013 8:02 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Mary -

You can change your Churchill Play of Day for Wednesday to any horse -not everyone likes cattle races.

I say we keep score with $2 WP bets over the four days.

30 Apr 2013 8:21 PM
KY VET

wow, that race you guys are playing looks like 8 horses across the track........ok....i pick the 1st race.....said......said what? yes............yes what? SAID!.................who's on 1st?

30 Apr 2013 8:47 PM
Mary Zinke

You know you'd pick the winner of the 6th, KY. Why chicken out?  Did someone cut your hair?  Got too close to Kryptonite?

30 Apr 2013 9:11 PM
Plod Boy Phil

I intended for it to be a simple contest.

- Contest open to Churchill Downs races only.

- One pick per day in any race Weds-Saturday, thus 4 picks

- Total money accumulated on the four $2 WP bets

- Everyone should play

- No Blog Ban imposed on those that do not win

30 Apr 2013 9:27 PM
Coldfacts

Mary Zinke,

"Coldfacts.  Shouldn't I go by how the horses have been running and how they are expected to run against each other in the Derby?"

I agree that the above is one angle to evaluate the contenders.

There is no harm in forecasting a post Derby story.

If you had forecasted a story in 2009 that read as follows:

Canadian Champion 2YO back into the Derby and runs a shocker. You would have made a ton.

Mine That Bird!

Here are a few for 2013:

Late entry New York bred silence Churchill Downs.

Giant Finish!

A P Indy sire line gets its first win.

Orb/Normandy Invasion!

Broodmare sire Rainbow Quest scores in 2013 Grand National and Kentucky Derby.

Java's War.

Have some fun.

30 Apr 2013 9:31 PM
Matthew W

much less speed in this years field---product of the new points system, I figure---I am sticking with my Normanny Invasion, from the clouds! Will box him with Verrazano, whom I believe is the horse to beat. Java's Gold intrigues me, I think he'll be a nice price, and think he's worth including. Orb may go favored, I'm gonna let him beat me! Big exacta box, Normandy/Verranazo, smaller boxes with Java, and win/show bet on Normandy...good luck to all!

30 Apr 2013 9:37 PM
Mary Zinke

Oh, I've got this one, Coldfacts. If anyone but KY's Normandy Invasion wins, it will be, "Best horse didn't win."

30 Apr 2013 9:37 PM
-Keelerman

Rusty Weisner;

I'm afraid I wasn't able to come up with much on the first-time blinkers angle. Every Derby winner whose record I was able to check had worn them in previous races.

As for the morning line, my personal odds have Revolutionary as the favorite regardless of track condition, but especially if it comes up sloppy. In my opinion, Calvin Borel's mastery of Churchill Downs increases five-fold when the track comes up wet. Perhaps we don't know much about Revolutionary's ability to handle the mud, but we definitely know about the abilities of his jockey!

That said, if I were setting the actual morning line odds, I would make Verrazano a narrow favorite -- perhaps 4-1 or 9-2. Orb would be my second choice, even though I half expect him to end up the favorite by post time.

Plod Boy Phil;

You can count me in! I believe I'll take a chance with Scatman in the sixth race.

-Keelerman

30 Apr 2013 11:04 PM
1:08 and change

PLOD:

I'm in... R5 #2 She's Coal Fired.  No form needed on this one vet.

30 Apr 2013 11:19 PM
Little Bill

I'll play. Race 9) #1 Starstruck

30 Apr 2013 11:32 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Keelerman -

Excellent. The more the merrier,  plus we have a score keeper in the mix now.

:68 -

Sounds like steam to me....

30 Apr 2013 11:36 PM
Mike Relva

1:08 and change

I totally get what you're saying. Point is it's comical some with a crystal ball that can sit five months prior to Derby and tell you who's winning,etc. As for Baffert,believe it or not years ago I was a fan. That changed. Shug's a legend too,he just got there in a different manner.

30 Apr 2013 11:44 PM
Plod Boy Phil

We need a 4th race of 7th race pick to make a P3...

30 Apr 2013 11:45 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Keelerman -

Who do you have ?

30 Apr 2013 11:53 PM
JayJay

PBP : I'm in for some fun handicapping.  R9 - Leparoux's horse.

30 Apr 2013 11:56 PM
1:08 and change

Mike:

I hear ya on the crystal ball.

01 May 2013 12:07 AM
1:08 and change

VET:

I am waiting for your horse by horse assessment regarding head size, hoof pattern, mares bred, color, emotional conformation, etc... of each Derby starter.

Please humor me.

01 May 2013 12:10 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Strong pick JayJay- R9, #5

01 May 2013 12:12 AM
ROBBIEJOE25

I'll take the number 7 horse in the ninth at Churchill

01 May 2013 6:03 AM
Coldfacts

In 2009 17 stallions bred between150 and 194 mares. The top two breeders were Giants Causeway and Medaglia d’Oro with 194 each. Unfortunately neither stallion is represented in  Derby 2013.

Lion Heart, 180 bred – Falling Sky (Even with help from an Oxygen Tank a Derby victory impossible)

Tapit 170 bred – Normandy Invasion (Lacks the will to win)

Midnight Lute 159 bred – Mylute (Will make his big move and flatten as usual)

Thoroughbred Racing is a sport of glorious uncertainties and surprising results can occur. However, based on historic data the probability of any of the above winning the Derby is extremely remote.

01 May 2013 9:12 AM
JerseyBoy

History?

Just stating the obvious.

History is a record of past events. The events occurred and became part of history.

History is not a creator of events. The events become history.

History cannot affect the outcome of a future event such as a horse race. That horse race will become an element of the history it has created.

The only horses that matter in a horse race are the ones in the starting gate.

For those concerned about the pedigrees, you might want to look at the sire of the horse Red Cadeaux.

Red Cadeaux finished second in the 2-mile Melbourne Cup. He was  also second in the 10-furlong Dubai World Cup to Animal Kingdom.

His sire was Cadeaux Genereux, a champion sprinter in Europe.

01 May 2013 10:26 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Derby Week Contest:

1) Churchill Races only

2) One pick from any CD race on each of the Weds-Saturday cards,  thus 4 picks total.

3) Scoring based on $2 WP bets on each of the 4 picks.

4) In the event of a scratch, players may revise pick to any horse in any race as long as the time stamp is before official 'off time'.

Wednesday Picks thus far

Phil - R6, #2

Mary - R6, #3

Keelerman - R4, #1

1:08 - R5, #2

Fugue - R9, #1

JayJay - R9, #5

Robbie Joe - R9, #7

Come on VET, Apple, Rusty, and anyone else.

Keelerman - I would love to have you keep track of plays and score,  but I will do so if you choose not to since I initiated the game.

01 May 2013 10:27 AM
Mary Zinke

KY said Said.

01 May 2013 11:43 AM
Pedigree Ann

Phil - my previous post didn't show up, so I'll try again. I did mention that I'd put Den's Legacy back on Poly for the Blue Grass, but maybe not on this forum. I belong to a few boards elsewhere and I know I mentioned it on the one comprised of us old 'Pick 6' contest buddies.  Having said it once, I may have assumed I said it everywhere.

01 May 2013 11:55 AM
1:08 and change

PLOD:

Friday R6: #2 Authenticity is my pick.

01 May 2013 12:09 PM
-Keelerman

Plod Boy Phil;

I would be more than happy to keep score! Sorry about the typo in my selection. I meant to write Scatman in the fourth race, not the sixth. Thanks for catching that!

01 May 2013 12:20 PM
Mary Zinke

Nice win by Said, KY Salix-free, too. How'd that happen?

01 May 2013 1:10 PM
-Keelerman

The first day of our Churchill Downs handicapping contest began with a bang as Ky Vet's selection, Said, romped to an easy victory in the Wednesday opener, yielding a win/place payoff of $11.80.

01 May 2013 1:41 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Mary:

Thanks for translating the VET pick....said.. obvious...idiots

Keelerman - cool, thanks

01 May 2013 2:08 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Pedigree Ann -

It came through.  I'm sure you did post or have the opinion.  No need for me to question either.

01 May 2013 2:10 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Wednesday Picks thus far:

Phil - R6, #2

Mary - R6, #3

VET - R1, #4

Keelerman - R4, #1

1:08 - R5, #2

Fugue - R9, #1

JayJay - R9, #5

Robbie Joe - R9, #7

Still time to get involved for Fun.

01 May 2013 2:14 PM
Plod Boy Phil

RobbieJoe -

CD 9 -7 Cat's Holiday is a SCRATCH

01 May 2013 2:30 PM
1:08 and change

I will stick with 2B

01 May 2013 2:32 PM
-Keelerman

We have another winner! 1:08 and change hit the fifth race on the card with Sweetmarys Success, who was much the best and paid $7.20 to win/place.

01 May 2013 2:58 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Thursday Churchill Contest Play

Race 10 - 10 Jackson Action

01 May 2013 3:39 PM
Mary Zinke

My pick stopped. Only a theoretical loss. Congrats on the hunch pick, 1:08.  I'll try r 8 or 9 tomorrow. Pick later.

01 May 2013 4:24 PM
KY VET

sorry.....no winner for 108.......his horse didnt run

01 May 2013 4:30 PM
KY VET

oh...ok........lame........

01 May 2013 4:32 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Anyone have thoughts on what to do with RobbieJoe if he doesn't get in a substitute pick soon ?

- Not inclined to give the R9 post time favorite since each is already covered

- Post time favorite of the 10th ?

- No pick today ?  No big deal since one winner at a price could take the top spot.

01 May 2013 4:47 PM
Mary Zinke

The other hunch pick paid $28.40!

01 May 2013 4:51 PM
Mary Zinke

Maybe the Irishbred?  But, it has to be RJ's pick.

01 May 2013 4:58 PM
Mary Zinke

That's it ! In retrospect, I pick the Irishbred in r9 and the two Mary's.  Do over !

01 May 2013 5:03 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Yes, the second Mary was a very nice price.

Fugue takes the lead after Day 1.

01 May 2013 5:06 PM
1:08 and change

By the way Vet:

My "friend" owned both 2s.... I hit the 2 in the 7th WP. And the exacta 50 times.  Emailed Plod that I loved the 1 in the ninth.  I'd say I'm doing all right.

Nice hit Fugue...

01 May 2013 6:47 PM
ROBBIEJOE25

Sorry Phil didn't realize my horse had scratched until it was too late, tryin to get a job done so i can finish up early friday, after watching the replay I dont think it would have mattered, nice pick Fugue and i'll be back in the ring to take another swing in the morning.

01 May 2013 6:51 PM
JayJay

Nice one Fugue - you beat me to that horse, I always play Graham.

Tomorrow's pick : R4 - Going with my future ex-wife Rosie's horse Bluebrass Belle.  

01 May 2013 8:25 PM
JayJay

THE FIELD.... IS SET !  

1, 6, 16, 17... those are the numbers of my top four.  I have some reviewing to do how I'm going to play.  I'm not that much concerned about Black Onyx in the 1 hole since he's a closer, but still, it's the one hole...he will have to give the field at least 4 lengths headstart...

I'm really liking Mylute with that Post 6.  I think Rosie can get him midpack on the first turn and clear on the outside.  What's the weather forecast ??

01 May 2013 8:34 PM
KY VET

thurs....cd.....race 4 ........#3 love my life!

01 May 2013 8:43 PM
Carlos in Cali

Come on Pete, it's Derby Time. Give us Something?.. anything?

01 May 2013 10:03 PM
JayJay

From Pete's tweet, some workouts/gallops :

www.youtube.com/.../UC7eHXGjOiMx7_uDPN7iCrgg

01 May 2013 10:38 PM
-Keelerman

All right! Here are the complete standings after day one of our Churchill Downs handicapping contest . . .

Fugue for Tinhorns: $14.80

Ky Vet: $11.80

1:08 and change: $7.20

Plod Boy Phil: $0.00

Mary Zinke: $0.00

JayJay: $0.00

RobbieJoe25: $0.00

Keelerman: $0.00

Good luck tomorrow, everyone!

01 May 2013 10:48 PM
KY VET

HI! this is pete..........KENTUCKY DERBY.........DISCUSS!     is that so hard?

01 May 2013 10:58 PM
KY VET

Horse #1......post pos. in the middle......just has to be as good as last year, to win........pressure, when you should win.......anything less is bad news........will be big chalk....

01 May 2013 11:01 PM
Ranagulzion

Carlos in Cali,

Where are you Bro? Whats your take on the Derby pace scenario ...You should be excited out of your skin about the chances of the AP Indy grandson, Orb (even if you wont like his odds).

Here's my version of the pace sceanrio of the Derby: Oxbow, Goldencents, Itsmyluckyday, Falling Sky and Verrazano will vie for the lead, passing the stands for the first time, the opening quarter in 23 and change. Falling Sky wants that lead and gets it narrowly over Oxbow with Itsmyluckyday being the filler-for-the-sandwich between that one and Verrazano,to the outside, the first half-mile in about 47 flat. Behind this group will be Palace Malice, Normandy Invasion, Orb, Overanalyze, Will Take Charge and My Lute. Making their runs from the extreme rear of the field will be Revolutionary, Charming Kitten, Black Onyx and Java's War. Frac Daddy etc get lost somewhere in between. Between the five-eights and the Half-mile points, a sudden shake-up takes place as Goldenents tries to wrest the lead away from Falling Sky to steal a march on the leading group but the "Sky" isn't about to fall as they cover six panels in 1:11 flat ...not until Verrazano and Itsmyluckyday, in tandem, make a cripling move at the three-eights pole. These two open up some daylight with Orb, Normandy Invasion, Overanalyze and Revolutionary (leaving the back markers for dead) charge towards the new leaders ...the long and short of this sneak preview is that Verrazano draws off from Itsmyluckyday just below the eighth pole, after turning for home with a mile covered in 1:34 and change. With Johnny V brandishing the whip vigorously to keep him up to his work, Verrazano crosses the wire well clear of rivals in a final time of ??? no, no, no, got to wait for race to get that bit. Overanalyze sizzles over the final quarter to relegate Itsmyluckyday to the show spot, ahead of Orb, Will Take Charge and Revolutionary in a tight photo to fill out the superfecta. Thats ow yours truly sees it.

Verrazano is the real deal: he will show his true class on Saturday and so too will Dreamig of Julia in the Oaks. Enjoy.

01 May 2013 11:14 PM
KY VET

check out my self declared post of the week on the top 10 haskin blog.........some guy posted" 4 to 1? on verrazano? ill take 4 to 1 in a new york minute!"........................i replied with......"too bad it will be a KENTUCKY 2 MINUTES!!!!!"

01 May 2013 11:26 PM
KY VET

Ranag! you like horses that run good huh?  Fast is good!!! i wont call you chalk, dont worry..............but you are spot on, about the system's flaw for fillies.......everybody is totally wrong that say otherwise.........easily fixed, by giving points to fillies preps..........people say why didnt they enter against colts.....the point IS, if a filly wakes up with an unreal performance, she cant get in.....the goal, as youve stated, is get the best horses in the field!

01 May 2013 11:34 PM
Little Bill

I don't care for fillies or geldings in the Derby. How does that help? Fillies create hoopla for a while but there's no long term value for the industry.

02 May 2013 12:40 AM
Mike Relva

KY VET

Rangulzion pics Pletcher horses every year. Nothing changes. lol

02 May 2013 1:09 AM
Mike Relva

1:08 and change

What do you think about Orb and Java's War?

02 May 2013 1:12 AM
Little Bill

Contest- Race 9) #1 Turallure

02 May 2013 1:20 AM
1:08 and change

Mike:

I like Orb to win... Just needs clean trip.  Java can hit the board.

Will play 4-5 on top. Orb, Vyjack, Revo, Luckyday, Palace.

02 May 2013 9:33 AM
Rusty Weisner

Is it me or does this ML not add up mathematically? I mean, in terms of adding up to 100% and whatever you have to account for in takeout on winners.

There's no way two co-favorites will be as low as 7/2 and 4/1, is there?

02 May 2013 11:20 AM
Rusty Weisner

Goldencents 5-1?  That's crazy.  And Revolutionary 10-1 with Borel?  Of course, these odds will probably flip with rain.

I think Revolutionary's post is right on the border of acceptability, but it makes it easy enough to get to the rail, and I was expecting a slow start anyway.  Still, that cements my preference for Orb over him.  I'll keep him on my P3 P4, as I think he has a chance, and may be the fourth betting favorite (I'm skeptical).  But much less on exactas I was going to play.

I'm glad Oxbow drew badly and can be tossed, though I was already tossing him.

All my horses drew great, except Revolutionary.

El Kabong made the point that an inside post would be better for the dawdling Java's War, and he drew the outside, which is good for any horse with speed, but not him.

02 May 2013 11:29 AM
Rusty Weisner

KY VET,

No kidding.  This is the only thread where comments appear in something like real time on this whole website.

02 May 2013 11:32 AM
Coldfacts

Ranagulzion,

"with a mile covered in 1:34 and change"

Do you seriously expect a colt with such little foundation to cover a mile in 1:34 and still be around at the end? If that occurs that bridge will be very unstable.

I am still on Revolutionary but the Derby and Oaks are primed for upsets. There are just too many stars.

I have in mind some wagers that you might find amusingly interesting:

The Pletcher Ex/Tri box:

Revolutionary, Verrazano, Charming Kitten, Overanalyze & Palace Malice.

A P Indy/Blushing Groom Ex/Tri box:

Revolutionary, Orb, Java's War & Normandy Invasion.

May Foals Ex/Tri box:

Normandy Invasion, Java's war, Palace Malice, Golden Soul & others.

Mr. P sire line Ex/Tri box:

Will Take Charge, Palace Malice, Mylute.

Best 10F Pedigree Ex/Tri box:

WTC,Charming Kitten, Golden Soul, Revolutionary, Java' War, Orb

Jocks due to win Ex/Tri box:

Garrett Gomez, Julien Leparoux, Robby Albarado, Ryan Moore.

Recommended Longshots:

Charming Kitten, Golden Soul, Will Take Charge & Lines Of Battle

02 May 2013 11:37 AM
Rusty Weisner

Vulnerable ML favorite:  Trinniberg.

From a quick glance I like Hierro at 10-1 here, but odds way down in slop.  

02 May 2013 12:05 PM
1:08 and change

PLOD:

R6 #2 I'll Call.... Kind of like when the vet pushed all in and I called.

02 May 2013 12:45 PM
Mary Zinke

CD r8, 9 Bind.

02 May 2013 1:13 PM
Mary Zinke

I sent my daughter all of you guys' picks. She's in Louisville today and for the Oaks and Derby.

02 May 2013 1:32 PM
Ranagulzion

Mike Relva 02 May 2013 1:09 AM

You're making mischieve on here by saying that I pick Pletcher's horses every year. Last year my firm Derby selection was Union Rags trained by Michael Matz and the year before that it was Dialed In trained by Nick Zito, in 2009 Friesan Fire trained by Larry Jones (after Quality Road was scratched). In 2008 my firm Derby choice was Big Brown trained by Rick Dutrow. I picked Pletcher's filly Devil May Care in 2009 after the scratching of Eskendereya (one out of the last five).

I tell you again, your dislike for certain trainers colours your judgment badly and makes me not take your opinions very seriously.

02 May 2013 1:32 PM
Ranagulzion

KY VET 01 May 2013 11:34 PM

Positively yes I like horse that run good ...what kind of horses do you like bro? If you've been acquainted with my views over the years you'd know that I enjoy spotting the special ones as early as possible ...usually as early 2YOs. In this regard I was impressed with Overanalyze fairly early, after tha smart 2012 Saratoga special winner, Spurious Precision (my first choice) broke down and was euthanized.  Verrazano got me in his second start and so far he's been delivering the goods. His pedigree is very good for the Derby distance so I'm not getting off him ...get it now?

02 May 2013 1:47 PM
Mike Relva

Ranagulzion

Ok,I stand corrected, also had Union Rags. Guess it just seems like you select every Pletcher horse. I'm not the only one that has it in for some trainers,if memory serves correctly a former writer,(if you can call him that) lol NEVER gave a certain Calif trainer a break. Am I lying?

02 May 2013 1:49 PM
Little Bill

It seems Normandy Invasion decided he needed a blow out this morning. That's a smart horse, making his own training calls.

02 May 2013 2:25 PM
-Keelerman

My pick for Thursday is #5 Golden Ron in the 8th race. Good luck, everyone!

02 May 2013 2:25 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Derby Week Contest- Thursday Picks

Fugue - R9, #1 (again...system?)

VET - R4, #3...SCRATCH, need a pick

1:08 - R6, #2

Phil - R10, #10

JayJay - R4, #4

Mary - R8, #9

Keelerman - No pick yet...??

Anyone else?  It's just for Fun.

02 May 2013 2:30 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Got it Keelerman - just posted the days picks before seeing this.

Good luck

02 May 2013 2:32 PM
Rusty Weisner

Sorry to mix comments into your Thursday contest.

I'm considering singling a horse called Life's Reward in the 13th race at CD Saturday.  Sat off a fast pace first time on dirt, beaten narrowly by the deep closing favorite, got a high fig.

02 May 2013 3:16 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Rusty -

No problem.

Life's Reward gets a 'Quick to Zip' upgrade from us for the FG race.

02 May 2013 3:34 PM
Rusty Weisner

Plod Boy Phil,

I had a feeling it was one of your upgrades because of the pace dynamics and the time of the first two calls (particularly compared to Abstractions maiden win at FG).  I'm playing this angle because I didn't see obvious picks among the second-time starters.

02 May 2013 3:59 PM
Little Bill

I like to save ground. No, it's just coincidence. There's plenty of angles to like on this one.

02 May 2013 4:01 PM
Plod Boy Phil

The important thing is LR's BL12 relative to the winner, 9.5 to ~32,  and of course the fact that the race was an Extreme for Closers - few Flows are easier to for those far back.

Good luck.

02 May 2013 4:13 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Just bustin' Fugue, as you know. One of my favorite exclaims from the masses back when I did go to the track was,  "damn,  that's my number".    

02 May 2013 4:15 PM
KY VET

hol race 3 #2 dynamize

02 May 2013 5:05 PM
KY VET

ok...just got home...need to pick this cd 10th for the contest....#12 rockefeller......

02 May 2013 5:18 PM
Little Bill

Turallure appeared to be a victom of pace. Gotta love Rahystrada, 9yro still kickin. that was a quality field I've seen Gr3s that were less.

02 May 2013 5:25 PM
Rusty Weisner

Plod Boy Phil,

They should give you a blog here; it obviously doesn't require a lot of work on top of your day job.  

1. You're already the top commenter and you write well and you have a (mostly) diplomatic disposition.

2. You have an encyclopedic memory of races, at least any race I've ever mentioned.

3. You're systematic and professional.

4. Don't know if the little contests were Keelerman's idea or yours, but they're a good one.

5. From the limited sample I've seen (not yesterday, though), you make good picks (not that not making good picks has ever stopped any "experts").

No kidding.  They should have someone here who has the interest in posting and maintaining regular new live threads for the bloodhorse community of commenters.

02 May 2013 5:33 PM
Rusty Weisner

Plod Boy Phil,

Re: that FG maiden race --

That's just another way of saying what I said.

02 May 2013 5:41 PM
Rusty Weisner

Pete Denk, by the way, was a very good host as regards picks, memory of races, etc. -- when he was keeping up the blog.

02 May 2013 5:43 PM
Little Bill

Victim. I knew that.

02 May 2013 5:54 PM
Rusty Weisner

Speak of the devil.  Pete is back with a thread.

02 May 2013 6:23 PM
JayJay

Friday R10 : I'm going with 3 Channel Isle

02 May 2013 8:02 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Rusty -

Thank you for the compliments - though my first three plus months here were not personal highlights in terms of fitting in and checking y ego at the door.  Abrasive may be the kindest adjective I can think of to describe.  Hopefully that is no longer the case.

re: QtZ -

Yes, your points regarding Lifes Magic were spot on. I guess my point is that not all fast split races favor closers and not all Closer favoring races are as obvious as the one discussed.

02 May 2013 9:43 PM
Mike Relva

Beholder for the win today.

Tomorrow, Orb-if not, Java's War.

03 May 2013 5:32 PM

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