Oaks Day!

With a 70% chance of rain on Kentucky Derby Day, enjoy the fast and firm tracks as long as they last on Oaks day! 

Churchill Downs

Race 7    2:08 ET

Edgewood Stakes   3yo fillies    1 1/16 miles turf

2 Broken Spell (15-1 ML odds) ran very well on the turf at age two. She has been repeatedly run on surfaces she doesn't like at age three, but I am willing to take a flyer on her to wake up at a big price here back on the green.

Race 8 3:02 ET

The Eight Belles (G3)    3yo fillies    7f dirt

3 Blueeyesintherein (8-1 ML odds) was 2-for-2 at Churchill last year including the Debutante Stakes (G3). She was full of run in her return race, the Instant Racing Stakes, at Oaklawn Park. I love how she shot up the rail and sustained her run through a :23-3 final quarter. There is plenty of speed in here to set up her stalk-and-pounce move. We haven't seen the best yet from 8 Gold Medal Dancer (15-1 ML odds), who should be closing late. She will appreciate the added ground she gets here.

 Race 9    3:52 ET

The Alysheba (G2)    4yos and up    1 1/16 miles dirt

On my pick 4 ticket I am 5-deep here, just trying to get through the leg with 4-6-7-8-9. But vertically, I could consider keying on 7 Macho Macho (5-1 ML odds) if his price drifts too high. Macho Macho makes his second start at age four, and I think there is improvement potential based on what he showed last year.

Race 10    4:44 ET   3yos    1 1/16 miles turf

I am very high on the talent of 4 Noble Tune (3-1 ML odds), whose only loss was a strong second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (G1). He will be a pick-4 single on my main ticket.

Race 11   5:45 ET

Kentucky Oaks (G1)    3yo fillies    1 1/8 miles dirt

In one of the best looking Kentucky Oaks I can recall, I will try to beat favored Dreaming of Julia here with two fillies: 4 Unlimited Budget (7-2 ML odds) and 11 Close Hatches (6-1 ML odds). The pace looks to be brutal, and both of my picks are very talented fillies who should be able to stalk and finish.