The 145th Belmont Stakes

We are ~48 hours out from the Belmont, and here's how I see the race. From the rail out...

Frac Daddy’s best race remains his 9 ¾-length maiden win going 8.5f last Nov. 3 at Churchill Downs. His soft 2nd in a slowly run Arkansas Derby (G1) is the lone bright spot in his 3yo campaign, and he was a non-factor in the Derby.

He’s by Scat Daddy, a branch of the Storm Cat line that is a question mark beyond 9 furlongs. His dam registered her three career wins between 5f and 6f, but she did have some group dynamic (which could help stretch her prodigy out).  Frac Daddy’s half-brother by stamina influence Lemon Drop Kid won at 2 miles over the hurdles.

Trainer McPeek announced Frac Daddy will be sent from the rail (!?!)  I could see him hitting the board if the track is speed favoring and he is able to work out a staking, up-close trip. Very minor bomb potential.

Freedom Child won the Peter Pan (G2) by a huge margin while front-running in the slop.

From the female family of Illinois Derby (G2) winner American Lion and 2013 juvenile champ Shanghai Bobby, his dam was a sprinter. His 2nd dam won the Oak Leaf (G1) going 8.5f, but that was her distance ceiling.

Freedom Child crushed the Peter Pan, but had a somewhat choppy stride and was getting out in stretch. He doesn’t look like a 12f horse to me, and he is stepping up in class and stretching way out. At less than 10-1, I'll play him to speed and fade.

Overanalyze has rotated wins and losses perfectly in eight starts. He encountered some traffic in the Derby, and he is not the type who is going to bull his way through chaos and pass 15 horses. At least he didn’t quit, getting up for 11th.

Rider John Velazquez will be looking for a clean stalking trip. I could see him hitting the board if conditions unfold in his favor, but I am generally against him here.

Giant Finish is the grinding type that sometimes can surprise bettors as they stretch out. He was coming again at the end of the 8.5f Battaglia and the 9f Spiral Stakes (G3). Tenth in the Derby was ok and about right for how he ran. His action is not pretty, and I prefer him on the synthetic. I can use him underneath in the tri or super if he’s a big price (he should be).

On his best day, Orb is the best horse in this race. While pace-aided, his Derby win was solid. He made an excellent sustained, wide run.

Orb's dam won going 12f (very significant) on the Keeneland turf, and Orb has a solid mind. He doesn’t waste much energy and is adaptable.

But, will we see his best? We didn't in Maryland, where Orb took a disappointing step backward (bounced) in the Preakness despite glowing workout reports. Under normal conditions, I’d want to see more than three weeks in order to play him now to return to top form. But guessing on form cycles is just that, a guess.

I am not tying my day to him, but Orb is my top-rated horse in the field, and I will definitely be using him to some degree in the exotics.

Incognito has not run nearly fast enough to win this race, but there are two things that make him interesting: a strong pedigree (by A.P. Indy and out of G1 CCA Oaks (10f) winner Octave) and good closing energy at shorter distances. I could use him underneath in the tri or super at a big price.

Oxbow stole the Preakness on the front end. That has been the style in all three of his career wins. He should be forwardly placed here again, either up top or pressing the pace. The pedigree is good (by Awesome Again, out of a full sister to 2x Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Tiznow), and Oxbow is a win candidate if he gets another comfortable trip.

Midnight Taboo is a nice moving horse that has run well in three career starts, but he is ambitiously placed here. The Belmont is a ridiculously tough spot to make your two-turn debut (while stepping up in class from a NW1X defeat). Toss.

Revolutionary is by the hot (but deceased) sire War Pass and his dam won the Alabama Stakes (G1) going 10f, so he is a pedigree qualifier (on quality). Revolutionary ran well for third in the Derby, although he saved all the ground and was rallying into a favorable pace scenario. He doesn’t need to be so far back this time, and he has shown some finishing grit. Contender.

Will Take Charge received the most significant trouble note in this year’s Derby when he was rallying inside of the winner but rode up on heels and got stopped. How much that cost him is pure conjecture, but note that he did not re-gather himself very well, only getting up for 8th, and then he was nowhere in the Preakness. It would take some imagination to pick him on top.

Vyjack tired badly in the Kentucky Derby, and his speedy pedigree looks like he should be dropping down in distance, not stretching out. He’s not on any of my tickets unless I punch 'all' somewhere underneath.

Palace Malice ran off with first-time blinkers and set a wicked pace in the Derby. Blinkers off is a good move for him, but I don’t like him going 12f on his pre-blinker form either. I would only use him defensively in the vertical exotics.

Unlimited Budget is the only filly in this year’s field and thus gets a 5-pound weight allowance, a significant # going 12f. She has pressed some very legitimate fractions in her career, so I see some upside potential here if she encounters a slower pace. Running and pedigree-wise, I do feel she tilts toward speed a little too much to play her on top going 12f on a fair track. If a speed bias is detected early in the day, she moves up in my rankings.

Golden Soul hails from the Sadler’s Wells sire line, and that alone makes him a threat going 12f. He is out of an unraced Mr. Prospector mare, but his second dam Lady in Silver was a European highweight at age 3 going 9.5- 11f. Golden Soul has one of the better pedigrees in this race, and I thought he showed good energy throughout his Derby run, albeit pace aided. A WIDE trip looms from this post, but I like his chances to hit the board. My confidence in him will grow/diminish based on how the track is playing.

 

 

 

 

 

 

642 Comments

Leave a Comment:

It aint easy being good!

I think everyone is on the same longshot which is Incognito when that is the case I always look for a different bomber. That bomber is giong to be Giant finish yeah he looks out classed but remember he finished ahead of half the field in the derby and has a jockey that knows this track very well. At 40-1 why not!

06 Jun 2013 7:50 PM
Kevin

Picks for Belmont Day:

Race 2) #7 Integrity

Race 3) #9 Atlantics Smile

Race 5) #4 Accelerate

Race 9) #7 Forty Tales

Race 10) #4 REal Solution (think this is the upset that ruins Pick 3 and Pick 4 tickets

Race 11) #12 Palace Malice...he was my derby horse and I'm sticking with him here.

06 Jun 2013 9:44 PM
Monarchos Matt

What a wide open Belmont this is! I still really feel like Orb and Oxbow are the two horses to beat. Both are on their game and have the best distance and slop pedigrees in the race, so I'll be playing a superfecta for this race for my main play I think with them on top. Thinking about using these 8 horses:

1) Orb

2) Oxbow

3) Freedom Child

4) Revolutionary

5) Golden Soul

6) Palace Malice

7) Overanalyze

8) Incognito

And wheeling the super in a 2/4/6/8 format.

06 Jun 2013 10:38 PM
Monarchos Matt

Still working through the undercard, but these look like potentially huge value plays to me:

Race 7: Off The Jak (15-1)- Will be overlooked off of some subpar turf efforts, but he boasts the 2nd highest 2013 Beyer in the field, and did so over a sloppy track when he won the Sunshine Millions Sprint back in January. Moving back to 6f on the dirt, he took a step forward winning over OC company from near the pace. Could surprise if speed is holding and this is a race where you've got to take a shot to beat the very beatable coupled entry.

Race 9: Clearly Now (8-1)- Chased a wicked pace in the Bay Shore at this distance and was just nabbed at the wire by Declan's Warrior while conceding that one 7 lbs...he should sit back this time and get first run on the massive speed duel that is bound to ensue in front of him.

Race 10: Finnegan's Wake (20-1)- Ran two best career races at 10f on off going, last race was a refresher at 8f after a long layoff, Romans will have him ready to fire, a live one for sure.

Not sure how I'll be betting/ using these, just some early observations.

06 Jun 2013 11:24 PM
Forbidden Apple

I like Orb to win the Belmont, with Incognito second and Revolutionary for third. Before that race, I am extremely high on Irsaal, Mizdirection, Let Em Shine, and the obvious monster Point of Entry. Mizdirection's superior closing kick will be difficult to hold off. Let Em Shine is one of my favorite horses in training, his early speed should shine bright on saturday. The problem is a ton of other speed, I still like him. Irsaal is on the improve, being gelded and lasix have moved him up. If Point of Entry scratches again, I'm going with Side road at a square price.

07 Jun 2013 8:11 AM
Coldfacts

Why toss Midnight Taboo?  He is bred along a similar cross to that of the 2012 Belmont winner Union Rags. His sire Langfuhr sired the useful Lawyer Ron, Canadian TC winner Wando and top class router Mobil.  His dam sire Derby and Belmont winner Thunder Gulch was the sire of Preakness and Belmont winner Point Given. He therefore has the Pedigree for 12F.

Mr. Pletcher won the recently contested Kentucky Oak with the 38-1 Princess of Sylmar; he missed with Bluegrass Cat at 45-1 in the 2006 Derby and scored with Red Giant at 35-1 in the VA Derby

He will be partnered by a rider who is overdue win with one of his longshot TC mounts. If he is good enough Mr. Gomez will get across.  

He is in my views an appealing longshot.

07 Jun 2013 8:12 AM
Coldfacts

Will Take Charge:  Why would it take imagination to pick him on top?

His sire line has dominated the Belmont winning 11 of the least 15 and 14 overall. Dunkirk who was likewise sired by Unbridled Song finished a strong 2nd in the Belmont.

WTC defeated eventual Preakness winner Oxbow in the Rebel. I am of the opinion that the 7 weeks between the Rebel and the Derby has hurt this colt. He finished 8th in the Derby and his Preakness effort is a toss. He should be much fitter and he is looking simply magnificent at Belmont.

His supports have a lot of positives

07 Jun 2013 8:24 AM
Coldfacts

Freedom Child: I agree with the point regarding his strides. It is unlikely that he an run that way in top class company and win.

Orb had to pullout all the stops to defeat as a 2YO so he does have some class. It has been reported that he has been galloping beautifully in the mornings that suggest he might just be more smoother in movement.

His dam sire Deputy Minister has a unequaled record in the Belmont. His broodmares have produced Belmont winners Rags To Riches, Jazil, Sarava and runner up Curlin. Let's not forget that he  also sired Belmont winner Tough Gold.

The Deputy Minister history with the Belmont favors a Freedom Child victory irrespective of his award action.

07 Jun 2013 8:35 AM
1:08 and change

Mike,

Rags to Riches sound familiar???

07 Jun 2013 10:44 AM
1:08 and change

Kevin,

Love your double.

07 Jun 2013 10:51 AM
Forbidden Apple

Friday at Belmont:

Jaipur Race 9- #2 Beau Choix 9/2(Win bet & EX. Box w/ Mr. Commons, D.D. w/Quick Casablanca)

Brooklyn Race 10- #3 Quick Casablanca 4-1 (Win bet & EX. Box w/ Calidoscopio)

07 Jun 2013 11:13 AM
thederbydream.com

Freedom Child, Orb, and Will Take Charge.

07 Jun 2013 11:15 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Belmont Week - Friday

Scratches have wiped out my best stock, but I will finish what I started on Wednesday.

R1) 6 Alcomatch:  has been on the wrong side of back to back speed favoring scenarios in the last two

07 Jun 2013 12:45 PM
JayJay

Pete : Thanks for putting up a Belmont blog.  I'm not clear who your other horses are besides Orb.  Do you have any other horse to play on top besides Orb ?  Also, what do you think of Capo Bastone in the Woody Stephens ?  I think he's a price play in this race specially if it's an off track.

07 Jun 2013 1:19 PM
Pedigree Ann

"Will Take Charge:  Why would it take imagination to pick him on top?"

Because a) his sire gets miler sorts, 9f at best; b) his dam got 9f only on class, outrunning her sprint-oriented pedigree; c) his 1/2-bro by distance sire A.P. Indy fades after 9f and only wins if he gets an easy lead; and d) he was beaten double-digit lengths twice against many of these same horses at classic distances.

The past is not the future. Dominance of classic races by a sireline fades as surely as it once grew and the baton is passed to another. Read your Tesio.

07 Jun 2013 1:59 PM
Pedigree Ann

"Why toss Midnight Taboo?  He is bred along a similar cross to that of the 2012 Belmont winner Union Rags."

And you even missed the best argument for Midnight Taboo - his dam is a 3/4 sister to Belmont winner Point Given. (She is by PG's sire out of PG's second dam.)

The big problem for Midnight Taboo is that he has only a one-turn maiden win to his credit. He couldn't even beat n1x horses last out. He is being thrown into the deep end before he even knows how to swim. How many maiden-only winners were touted as Derby horses, only to fall flat on their faces when faced with stakes horses? Maybe he'll be a top horse later, but he is behind the curve at this point.

07 Jun 2013 2:13 PM
1:08 and change

Ann:

Thank you...could not have said it better myself.

07 Jun 2013 4:59 PM
jimthepimp

Belmont Day Picks

R6 (#9 Irsaal)

R7 (#6 Sage Valley)

R8 (#5 Laugh Out Loud)

R9 (#8 Tenango)

R10 #1 Point of Entry)

R11 (#3 Overanalyze)

R8 Laugh Out Loud is a european G1 runner, G3 european runners beat most american turf horses and u get 15-1.

R9 Tenango only if track is sealed and not drying out. Look at May 9th race on a sealed track and u get 20-1. Also like the 9 in this race so will be doing some exactas.

07 Jun 2013 5:03 PM
Sam Santschi

Was working hard today (shocking), lol.  But snuck on Xpressbet to watch how track was playing and watched front runners win easily on the inside.  Big ask, but would somebody please post how the track is playing tomorrow?.  I've got a conflict tomorrow afternoon and will have to miss the earlier races and bet with a smartphone.  Taking a stand at this point against Orb in favor of Revo, but if the track is conducive to closers might put him back up on top.  As it stands playing the three pletchers from the derby with the two Lukas' and giant finish.  In the top spots, mostly Revo and oxbow...I think, lol.

07 Jun 2013 6:12 PM
Alysheba4ever

Hoping he is coming into his own now so I must stay with my Derby horse Palace Malice whose breeding should like this distance with Orb my second choice and Freedom Child my third. Not sure if Revolutionary who I like very much can get this distance but then again I remember the experts claiming Bold Forbes would not get the 1 1/2 mile distance.

07 Jun 2013 7:15 PM
Mary

Pedigree Ann, you must be kidding.  Will Take Charge has a long distance pedigree.  

07 Jun 2013 10:45 PM
Pedigree Ann

Sam, did you miss the Brooklyn H? Calidoscopio had to be 20 lengths behind the next-to-last horse down the backstretch but came roaring down the outside to catch the leader at the wire.

07 Jun 2013 10:46 PM
Sam Santschi

Pedigree Ann.  Only saw a couple of the earlier races.

07 Jun 2013 11:01 PM
Monarchos Matt

Jay Jay- I'm only using Capo Bastone on the bottom of my superfecta, in the event of a pace meltdown I suppose he could close into it and get up for a piece. But I'm not feeling the love for him or Forty Tales, as the Derby Trial form looks a bit inferior in terms of class- Forty Tales was already beaten by Honorable Dillon in the 7f Swale and both were easily handled by my pick, Clearly Now, in their respective races against him. Maybe he will prove me wrong but up to this point, I don't think he's fast enough to compete with these, and he probably needs a bit more distance than this for his best. I wouldn't call 6-1 ML "value" on him by any means...if you want a faster closer who loves the track, I'd look to Declan's Warrior, or even Tenango at 20-1.

The real questions to me in that race are the two favorites- Let Em Shine, who will go to the lead out of the widest post, but has a long trip and a new surface to contest with, and Zee Bros, who has lost to some of these and didn't hold in the Derby Trial but appreciated the cutback in distance in his last start and could just be a 3 YO who is rapidly improving right now. Who knows, I've been staring at the PPs for this one for awhile now. Good luck!

07 Jun 2013 11:53 PM
Coldfacts

Dunkirk was second in the Belmont. Eight Belles was second in the Derby. Octave won the Coaching Club American Oaks. All the aforementioned were sired by Unbridled’s Song. The last time I checked those are 10F and 12F races.

Raise Native did not run beyond 5.5F. In spite of this he sired Alydar who was runner up in all three legs of the TC. He also sired Derby, Preakness winner and Belmont runner up Majestic Prince.

Orb's sire Malibu Moon did not run beyond 5.5F.

To suggest that by Unbridled’s Song gets miler sorts, 9f at best is grossly inaccurate.

08 Jun 2013 12:22 AM
Coldfacts

Pedigree Ann,

“The past is not the future. Dominance of classic races by a sire line fades as surely as it once grew”

2011  - Ruler On Ice

2010 – Drosselmeyer

2009  - Summer Bird

2006 – Jazil

2005 – Afleet Alex

2004 – Birdstone

2003 – Empire Maker

2001 -  Point Given

2000 – Commendable

1999 – Lemon Drop Kid

1998 – Victory Gallop

In the last 15 renewals of the Belmont Stakes the only years that a horse from the Mr. Prospector sire line did not win the Belmont were 2012, 2008, 2007 and 2002.

If above record represents your concept of fading sire line’s dominance, then the Cold Facts have been misinterpreted.

08 Jun 2013 12:35 AM
Plod Boy Phil

re: The Woody Stephens

None of the horses in the race can claim a class edge, as only a couple hold G3 wins with each achieved early in the season.

The lone downgrade is Capo Bastone, whose finish in the Derby Trial looks much better than it actually was due to an Extreme Race for Closers.  Rates 'none chance' in my book.

The winner of the Derby Trial,  Forty Tales, is given a 'neutral' grade for that win as he came very close to making a premature move when opening up a clear lead in the stretch before holding off the runner-up.  While not strong enough to qualify for a rare 'Quick to Zip Win', he is a genuine threat.

The pace setter of the Derby Trial, Zee Bros, went on to an impressive win as an upgrade in the Ching Lang on the Preakness under card. Note that his opening half was much faster than older sprinters went later on the card in the Md Sprint, yet he finished his dominating w-w win just a tick slower than Sage Valley. He is the race's lone upgrade.

Zee Bros - Forty Tales for me

08 Jun 2013 1:00 AM
JayJay

Matt :  I'm handicapping the race with the track being sloppy and I think Capo has the advantage if it is.  I don't know if any of the others can run on the slop but at 6-1, that's a price play for my P4.  Honorable Dillon is my other horse in this race, using 2 horses for my P6 and middle P4.  I did look at Declan's Warrior who seems to be just starting to get better but I don't like his inside post even with Lezcano who's a great closer jockey, he'll have to swing him wide to start his run, may prove to be too much work for him.  Merit Man is the other longshot I'm looking at to hit the board.  Thanks for Tenango, I'll have a look at him,

I've played Finnegan's Wake in his last two races and I don't know if I want to keep playing him.  If PoE scratches, my horse here is Twilight Eclipse.  He'll be my single if PoE scratches.

Last race, I like the mild step up in class with the 8 horse, I think this horse is Good luck with your picks.

06 :  5

08 :  3, 6

10 :  1

11 :  10, 5, 3

12 :  2, 10

13 :  8, 4, 12

Playing the P6, middle (late?) P4 and last P4.  Going to try and beat Power Broker and start my P6 with the Bill Mott longshot.

Good luck to all playing with real money at the track !

08 Jun 2013 1:20 AM
JayJay

I finished my thought but forgot to type it hehe, I think the 8 horse in the last race is much much better than he showed in his last.  Also like the switch to Rajiv.

08 Jun 2013 1:34 AM
Pete Denk

JayJay-  If the track plays like it did today (fair), Golden Soul is likely to be my value horse in he Belmont.

08 Jun 2013 1:58 AM
Kevin

Big bet of the day will be the late Pick 4 at Belmont

1,2,3,4/1,9,11/1,2,4/3,5,12,14

Originally Revolutionary was going to be on my Pick 4 ticket, but have heard poor workout reports.  Also don't like leaving off Optimizer.

Also have win bet on Palace Malice, some tris and supers keying him, and some rolling pick 3s that depend on the 1 or 6 race 7 (where I'm worried about the 4).  

08 Jun 2013 8:31 AM
Kevin

Any guesses on how big Steve Crist's ticket is going to be?  He'll drop $2,000 on a ticket and not think twice.  

08 Jun 2013 8:33 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Belmont

Downgrades - 9 Revolutionary, 14 Golden Soul. Each was aided by  Closer favoring races in the La Derby and the Ky Derby.

08 Jun 2013 8:54 AM
Rusty Weisner

I'll try the same exacta I tried in the Derby:  Orb, Palace Malice.  I'll "single" these two in a P3 or P4, too.  I'll also try Palace Malice and Orb in trifectas with the others I like, Oxbow, Golden Soul and Revolutionary.  Why overthink it.  The Derby has held to form and I'll take the 1,2,3 finishers plus Oxbow plus the must-have longshot.  I'll bet against Freedom Child.  The newcomer last year, Paynter, was a better horse and he couldn't pull it off last year; also the performance in the slop gives an inflated picture, and it's not slop today.  Orb got pulled back after trying to make his move and was given no chance to win.  I can see Palace Malice making a fool of me again, but for the odds I have to take him, and not just take him, but hammer him, like I should have done with the inexplicably 15-1 Oxbow in the Preakness.

Don't know how to play around Point of Entry, so I won't.  I'll bet the second classiest horse here, Twilight Eclipse, won't like this surface, and the others are G3 horses at best; I've never seen a horse out of Italy win and am hoping today won't be a first.  Otherwise I give Europeans a second look on this heavy surface, so maybe I'll try Speaking of Which in a double at 20-1.  For the same reason I'll throw in Laugh Out Loud in R8 along with 1-4; playing against SA downhill specialist Mizdirection.  No idea on R9, maybe pace will set up for one of the longer-odds horses.  The only ones I'm throwing out yet are Retrieve and Salutos Amigos.  

08 Jun 2013 10:05 AM
Pete Denk

Muddy/yielding to start the day at Belmont.

Races 8-10-12-13 remain on the turf.

08 Jun 2013 10:05 AM
Pedigree Ann

Coldfacts -

Values in the tail of the distribution, whether normal or Poisson, do not define the most likely outcome. Unbridled's Song has sired 814 foals to 2010 and maybe 3 stayed?  That is 0.3%. The damline also counts and possibly was dominant in those 3.

About sirelines: What I am saying is that you cannot expect one sireline (counting back 3-4-5 generations) to be dominant forever, just because it has a run of dominance. Lexington was leading sire in the US 15 times and his sireline faded. St. Simon was dominant in Britain for 20 years and more and his sireline struggles to survive today. The brothers Sir Gallahad III and Bull Dog (sire of Bull Lea) had a run as well. Mr. Prospector will fade from dominance, the only question is when.

Mary, obviously you and I analyze pedigrees differently. Since distance ability is an aberration in horse populations, the genetic drift is back to a more Quarter-Horse type. Many a stayer will sire some distance-limited types, who will not transmit what they did not inherit.

Do not confuse this with horses who won only at short distances because they were never tried at longer - these may well transmit more stamina than they displayed, like Last Tycoon and Oasis Dream.

For these reasons I prefer to look at the most recent generations and how they have performed, both as runners and in the stud. Rubiano, for instance, seems to have inherited none of Nijinsky's classic stamina and was his father's son, a top-class 7f-8f type. So to cite Nijinsky as a reason for WTC to stay would be specious, IMHO.

08 Jun 2013 10:11 AM
Rusty Weisner

Pete Denk,

The scratches and changes aren't posted yet and it's only an hour to post.  Where'd you find that out?

08 Jun 2013 10:25 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Belmont Week - Saturday

I enter the last day of the week with 1 win in 4 plays($18.20)

R13) 1 Nineinthenine

08 Jun 2013 10:59 AM
Pete Denk

With news that Race 12 stays on the turf today at Belmont, I am all over Whynotwhiskey in there. Ran fresh from an outside post in the return. Should revert to closing tactics today, and he has a big move.

08 Jun 2013 11:10 AM
predict

Belmont, 6/8/13, The Belmont Stakes, R-11, Dirt, 1 1/2m, Grd.1:

#12-Palace Malice

#10-Will Take Charge

#13-Unlimited Budget

#11-Vyjack

Box-em and win ex, tri and super

Orb and Oxbow looked to be tired horses today, neither will hit the board, Golden Soul and Revolutionary won't get set up they had in Derby, both run out of the money.

Don't overlook Vyjack, he will be there today, there is nothing wrong with his pedigree for distance, nice work June 4th, ITS HAMMER TIME!

The filly is fresh and with her size and speed, the 5lbs will aid her, she is extremely dangerous today, DON'T OVERLOOK!

Mike Smith will be doing a much better job today on Palace Malice, he is coming around at just the right time, could dominate today, that's right DOMINATE!

Will Take Charge, today is the the day, he never has looked better, ready for a CORKER! NEVER UNDERESTIMATE LUCAS!

08 Jun 2013 11:16 AM
Monarchos Matt

Kevin,

I like that Pick 4 Play, although I'd have a tough time leaving out Oxbow and Twilight Eclipse...maybe you can add the latter now that the 2 Quick Casablanca is a scratch (ran yesterday).

Race 7 looks like a tough one to find any value with only 6 horses and 5 betting interests...my top two picks there are Sage Valley and Caixa Electronica but I may take a flyer on Off the Jak searching for a decent price there.

Race 8 Hungry Island for the win (looks like Dayatthespa will run after all? That changes the race entirely with two speed horses that don't like the off going, this certainly sets up for a closer and I think she turns the tables this time).

Race 9 Clearly Now for the win over Zee Bros, Declans Warrior, Let Em Shine

Race 10 Point of Entry and Twlight Eclipse keyed over Finnegan's Wake and Optimizer

Race 11 Orb, Oxbow over Freedom Child, Revolutionary, Golden Soul and Palace Malice

Going to play some supers today and will need to go deeper. Waiting to see how the track plays. Good luck to all!

08 Jun 2013 11:34 AM
-Keelerman

Sam Santschi;

Having watched the first three races of the Belmont card, I would say that if there is any kind of  bias, it is a speed bias. Granted, the first race was won by a deep closer, but the runner-up was a 29-1 shot that set the pace. In the second race, two of the top three finishers were racing close to the pace early on, and in the third race, speed horses swept the trifecta despite a :14 1/5 final eighth of a mile.

As for the possibility of an inside/outside bias, I would say that it definitely doesn't hurt to be outside, but the rail doesn't appear awful either. It might not be the best part of the track, but a couple of horses have run pretty well while racing down there.

I'll keep updating throughout the day!

08 Jun 2013 1:02 PM
El Kabong

Keelerman,

It's unbelievably favoring the speed rail. They just went 1,2 3 all the way around.

That doesn't mean that won't change. If they open it up a little more, it many get a little deep. Let's watch.

08 Jun 2013 2:18 PM
-Keelerman

With one more dirt race to be run before the Belmont, it certainly appears as though a distinct speed bias exists. Races five, six, and seven were won in gate-to-wire fashion, and the fourth was won by the horse that was second early on.

If the track bias remains, it should certainly help the chances of horses like Frac Daddy, Oxbow, Freedom Child (if he breaks well), and Palace Malice. Speaking of Palace Malice, I'm surprised to see how many people like him today! I thought I was going to be one of few to pick him today, but I guess not!

My top two choices in the Belmont are Palace Malice and Overanalyze. Orb, Oxbow, Giant Finish, and Frac Daddy are the others that interest me. Golden Soul's credentials look nice as the runner-up in the Derby, but he reminds me a lot of Make Music for Me and Ice Box, well-regarded 2010 Belmont also-rans that took advantage of a blazing Derby pace to secure excellent finishes.

I want to like Freedom Child, but his poor starting habits, coupled with the speedy Frac Daddy to his immediate inside, leaves me wondering if he'll break slowly and get bottled up in traffic. If that occurs, I don't think he'll be able to rally for victory.

08 Jun 2013 4:28 PM
Kevin

Noticed before Race 9 that in one pick 3 I had 1, 7, 11 and in my pick 4 had 1, 9, 11.  Hate rooting against myself.  Glad to cash the PIck 3, but ruined my Pick 4.  

Should have just played the super.  

08 Jun 2013 4:55 PM
Rusty Weisner

That looked like a tough surface.  I'm glad I ate the chalk without trying anything else.  $60 investment and I have a live 50-cent P4 with Orb & Palace Malice and a $1 P3 with those same two.  The payoff on Orb is $118 for 50-cent P4, $121 for the $1 P3, $447 and $375 for Palace Malice.  I'm counting my money.

I saw others' comments about the surface.  A drying surface can change.  But I don't think the 12f Belmont is affected as much by biases as other races in any case.

08 Jun 2013 5:52 PM
Mike Relva

Orb for the win today. Not happening for Pletcher. The filly is a very good horse,but shouldn't run in Belmont.... just to satisfy the ego's of owner/trainer.

08 Jun 2013 5:52 PM
Kevin

Not bad with my original picks.

Race 2)  Integrity-Win

Race 3) Atlantic Smile-still running

Race 5)  Accelerate-Place

Race 9) Forty Tales-Win

Race 10) Real Solution-Show

But with bad betting, I'm still down for the day.  

Need a Palace Malice win.  

08 Jun 2013 5:53 PM
Rusty Weisner

Kevin,

Your cavallo really loomed there.  That was almost a really good pick.  Maybe you cashed an exotic?

08 Jun 2013 5:57 PM
Rusty Weisner

Kevin,

You can't lose with Palace Malice.  The lime-green saddlecloth will go very well with the yellow polka-dots on Kelly green.

And don't worry that everyone here seems to like him, too.  It's the least read blog anywhere.  The odds will be great!

08 Jun 2013 6:00 PM
Rusty Weisner

The other horse with head-scratching odds is Golden Soul.  A pedigreed plodder who came in second in the Derby.  Second in the Derby.  He's 11-1 right now.  Even if he hadn't been supposedly "off his feed" he'd still be 10-1.  I don't like him so much on top, but underneath? -- he seems logical.

08 Jun 2013 6:05 PM
Rusty Weisner

I don't get all the commentary about Orb having a soft pace in the Preakness, or not liking the inside, or the surface.  I don't have a good eye for races, but he made a run into contention and was throttled back.  Maybe Rosario's a betting man.

08 Jun 2013 6:09 PM
Rusty Weisner

Good night and a Bronx cheer to everyone.  And a Manhattan for me.

08 Jun 2013 6:12 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Palice Malice

Cool.

08 Jun 2013 6:42 PM
El Kabong

Kevin, Steve,

Well done. Your ship is in and I hope a fortune greets you both. Mike is one of the classiest jocks right there with Gary. Well run, well deserved and I'm happy for Todd to get one in his backyard.

08 Jun 2013 7:11 PM
Rusty Weisner

Well, I crushed it.

Netted $3100.  Bet about $200 and landed $3300.  Lame as it is, that's the best day I've ever had; flirted with $2000 in the past.

I played Palace Malice in exactas, $10 box with Orb, $5 boxes with Oxbow, Golden Soul and Revolutionary.

Then tri boxes with Palace Malice and Orb with those other two.

Then keyed tris with Palace Malice on top, and Orb on top.

Then there were the P3 and P4.

Then $5 WPS on Palice Malice.

I feel great.  

Bygones, everyone?

08 Jun 2013 7:35 PM
Rusty Weisner

Kevin,

Well done, well done.  I'm keeping the steak medium rare, though.

Man, you nailed it!  So did I!

Rusty Winner!  For 2013, at least.  And even 2012-2013.

08 Jun 2013 7:36 PM
1:08 and change

Rusty,

Was May 21st early enough of a post for you?  I'll take my apologies now.

Krusty:

There is a hidden (Palace) message (Malice) in this post. (Belmont) See if you can (Stakes) decode it.

May 21st... look it up.  And yes, BOOOOOOOOM!!!!!

08 Jun 2013 8:26 PM
Pedigree Ann

I wrote out my all stakes Pick 4 as follows -

2,5/7,11/1,5/5,7,12,14

But that cost $16 for a 50cent base and I get very nervous betting that much. So I tried to beat Point of Entry with Optimizer, a lover of soft turf. I am my own worst enemy.

Nailed the first two races, though; no double, just the winners. That's when I could exploit mud blood research properly. Started to dry up thereafter.

08 Jun 2013 8:31 PM
Rusty Weisner

1:08 and change,

I remember the post well, and even laughed out loud at the time. I have no doubt you had Palace Malice.  He was a textbook "upgrade".  I hope you don't doubt the same about me -- in any case, my pick is up there above.   Picks, I should say.  I think I spelled out all my bets explicitly with the exception of the non-Orb exactas.

Like I said, bygones, bygones. Big day, for you, for me, it's all good.  Congrats to you and me, Mercutio!

My Haskell picks will be gold.

08 Jun 2013 9:14 PM
Fran Loszynski

A tear came to my eye when they reported what Gary Stevens said to Mike Smithnearing the finish line that Mike had it go get it! Just like in the movies  Gary you are a true gentleman and wonderful jockey and loyal to your horse that you were proud. You both ran a valiant race.

08 Jun 2013 9:14 PM
Rusty Weisner

1:08,

All kidding aside, I don't doubt you had Palace Malice, but, come on, I risked the usual embarrassment posting my picks today, but posted them.  

08 Jun 2013 9:16 PM
KY VET

congrats rusty.........great pick! you are the big dawg today.............coldcuts is your..."B".......

08 Jun 2013 10:11 PM
KY VET

plod....the times of the fractions of the pace dont pass my eye test.......what are your thoughts?

08 Jun 2013 10:13 PM
Rusty Weisner

KY VET,

Thanks.  He said the same thing about Palice Malice before the Derby.  Someone else said Oxbow was tuckered.  I think it's better for the untutored eye not to try to guess when the horse is tired.

When I hit a six-digit score, come November, say, I plan to join you in the claiming game.

Hubris.

With this money (all untaxed, I think) I'm planning on reacquainting myself with the sensory pleasures of this game -- definitely planning on attending the Haskell in person and maybe even a weekend in Saratoga.

08 Jun 2013 10:32 PM
Rusty Weisner

Vyjack, Frac Daddy, Overanalyze.  I shudder to think of the shame of betting them.

Actually, I had $4 on Overanalyze underneath in $2 key tris with Palace Malice and Orb, my only venture past the five I liked.  Brrr!

08 Jun 2013 11:10 PM
Monarchos Matt

Congrats to Rusty and Kevin! Nicely done boys. I had Palice Malice underneath but really didn't think he could hang on for the win. Had Orb and Oxbow on top of him and even had Incognito on the bottom of the super but didn't move Palace up to the top line, my loss.

Rusty, glad he finally came through for you and glad you stuck to your guns after the Derby. That is quite a score indeed.

08 Jun 2013 11:35 PM
JayJay

Well done Rusty and Kevin!  Specially Rusty who had a big day, glad to see you cash big time with your bets.  I'm starting to become a believer of Oxbow.  Never thought he could go 12F let alone repel the closers.  Nice horse.

08 Jun 2013 11:57 PM
Monarchos Matt

I got one thing right- that Frac Daddy would finish dead last if he went to the lead. When are these Scat Daddy colts going to stop running in the Classics? Actually I hope they continue. They are easy tosses every year in every single race. Scat Daddy himself was 18th in the Derby as the 3rd choice. Silliness.

09 Jun 2013 12:00 AM
Rusty Weisner

Monarchos Matt,

Hope no one minds if I keep crowing on top of this dungheap for a little while yet.

This was one where I played the odds.  I wanted to kill myself after the Preakness, seeing such juicy odds on Oxbow and not playing him to win every which way.  This is where the daily players have the advantage -- the guys, as PBP once put it, "who push money through the windows every day".  As a mere sometime bettor, usually on the marquee races, I get a little scared of not cashing a ticket.  As a real player (which I am not) you have to coolly play odds to some degree.  Glad I shook off the fear today.  

"I had Palice Malice underneath but really didn't think he could hang on for the win."

I said the exact same thing about Oxbow on Preakness Day.  It was stupid then, and it was stupid today, when the horse is 14-1, 15-1.  It's the same muff I made of Shackleford in 2011:  "Had" him in P4's that ended up chalky, but didn't lay into him on top in the race itself.

I hope you made money on Oxbow somewhere in the end.  You clued me into him before the Derby, even if that race didn't pan out.  He ran quite a race today.  I didn't think the two would hold on when the pace seemed a little brisk, but maybe it was that track, after all.

09 Jun 2013 12:09 AM
Rusty Weisner

JayJay,

Everyone I read anywhere gave a thumbs up to Oxbow's pedigree for the distance.

The other thing is that the Belmont isn't very nice to the deep closers -- a number of commenters here, I think, made that point.  

So 10-1 on Oxbow was insane, maybe more insane than the 15-1 in the Preakness.  I can never figure a longshot on an ordinary Saturday:  it's why I have doubts about being able to win at the game in the long run.  But for some reason in the Preakness and Belmont this year there were these head-smacking overlays.

09 Jun 2013 12:19 AM
predict

Congrats to all those who supported Palace Malice, especially Rusty, way to go, good handicapping.

One comment on the Belmont, Oxbow is one incredible horse, he was still going on the gallop out. Think he will be getting better with age, could be very dangerous if he goes in the Breeder's Cup Classic.

Once again the world's greatest jockey, Rosario, fails to bring Orb home first, gee too bad.

Learned something today, Napravnick is a good jockey, not a great one. Think she gave Unlimited Budget a poor ride today. She is not in a class of a Mike Smith or a Gary Stevens. It's too bad that we always have all this hype in sports when a female takes on the males.

09 Jun 2013 1:00 AM
Rusty Weisner

Jeez, instead of getting scared at the last minute and spreading all over the place (except for the $4 thrown at the wretched Overanalyze) I went all in.  I did the key tris at the last minute and straight exactas with Palace Malice on top, which I didn't even remember.  Piled an extra $16 in at the last minute and it made me an extra $2 exacta and $1 tri, for an extra $800.  Truly my lucky day.

09 Jun 2013 1:09 AM
Rusty Weisner

I just watched the replays of Stephanie's Kitten and Forty Tales.  I was otherwise engaged and didn't get to watch these two hair-raising races live.  It's probably better I didn't see them. I really "picked" that R9, going with eight horses to cover all the closers!  Now that's handicapping!  

09 Jun 2013 1:47 AM
Rusty Weisner

Kevin?

Tell us you're living it up and that the teller didn't punch up 13 instead of 12.

Kevin?  Kevin!!!

09 Jun 2013 1:53 AM
Mike Relva

Not offering any excuses regarding Orb not getting it done. Didn't work out.

09 Jun 2013 2:20 AM
Sam Santschi

Thanks Keelerman for the track updates.  Was following them on Twitter also.  Helped me quite a bit to be brave with PM and Oxbow!  Wonderful day back in hometown of Chicago with my brother for golf, brief Oakbrook Terrace OTB stop for Belmont and then Blackhawks at UC.  Then long drive back to WI. I'm beat.  Congrats Rusty!  Gotta love the old BDH's at the OTB. Didn't it seem like the race was taking forever to end and then even longer to be made official?  I was obviously looking anxious  and this old black guy kept saying, "that's a signer, that's a signer."  LMAO.  I was like, really, with Orb??

09 Jun 2013 2:21 AM
1:08 and change

Rusty,

Congrats...well done sir.

09 Jun 2013 7:30 AM
El Kabong

Rusty,

Sorry I missed on that congrats my man. That was nice hit and a good call.

Predict, Keelerman I believe a tip of the hat to you two for supporting Palace Malice. Great call. I didn't see it in his pp's and the Belmont seems as unlikely a place to fix racing issues as any:)

09 Jun 2013 9:59 AM
Plod Boy Phil

VET-

I put a watch on the 1st Q and 2nd Q splits and came pretty close to the fractional times listed using the average of my five timings. Since the timer start point (the finish line) was directly in front of the camera, it's easy to stop the video at that point and begin hand timing from there. Obviously, the bright red poles make each Q easy to locate.

09 Jun 2013 10:54 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Additionally,  I think the shear size of Belmont relative to the majority of tracks we watch regularly makes horses appear to be moving slower than they actually are.

Prior to yesterday, the average split times for the Belmont over the previous 22 years were:

23.9, 48.4, 73.1, 149.0 (seconds)

09 Jun 2013 11:04 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Additionally,  I think the shear size of Belmont relative to the majority of tracks we watch regularly makes horses appear to be moving slower than they actually are.

Prior to yesterday, the average split times for the Belmont over the previous 22 years were:

23.9, 48.4, 73.1, 149 (seconds)

09 Jun 2013 11:10 AM
Plod Boy Phil

My fault on the re-post. I could not remember if I sent it or just 'copied' it.

09 Jun 2013 11:23 AM
derbylin

Hoping Point of Entry recovers from his leg fracture which was discovered this morning.  Congrats to Palace Malice and to the Derby and Preakness winners who managed to hit the board.  With three different winners this year, that doesn't occur very often, when they all place in the Belmont.

09 Jun 2013 12:53 PM
Pedigree Ann

Predict - I think you might consider the fact that Smith and Stevens are about twice as old as Rosie. She's only been riding in the big leagues for a couple of years; they were big-league riders when she was in diapers.

09 Jun 2013 2:34 PM
Rusty Weisner

Where's Fugue for Tinhorns?  He's the top handicapper here lately and he had Palace Malice.  He probably had the superfecta.

09 Jun 2013 2:46 PM
predict

Ped.Ann,

Handslap accepted, you're correct, I am mostly just sour apples because I expected more from Unlimited Budget. But, I still get a little annoyed at the media for all the hype, the one that really annoyes me is the media obesesion with that female race car driver, Fitzpatrick, who never wins a big race. In either case if they weren't so attractive, I wonder if we would hear much of anything, especially if they looked for example, like a female John Madden, hooooo, now that's scary.

09 Jun 2013 3:08 PM
Kevin

Thanks to all for the congrats on Palace Malice.  What could have been without blinkers on in the Derby.  

He was much the best on Saturday.  6 wide on the first turn?  

Oxbow is starting to remind me of Hard Spun.  Just a high cruising speed and keeps going.  At Santa Anita, for the Breeders Cup, he could be really dangerous.  

I did double my money on Saturday, so a good day.  Missed out on the big payday, by leaving Forty Tales off my Pick 4 ticket (even though he was on all my Pick 3s) and having Oxbow for 3d, not 2d in my tri and super.    

09 Jun 2013 4:51 PM
Little Bill

Missed the super and the tri. I'm an idiot. WPS and ex helped with my previous losses on the day. Congrats to everyone that made money. Onward.

09 Jun 2013 5:04 PM
Little Bill

Just played the 7 at Mon., race 10, 18-1.

09 Jun 2013 5:23 PM
Rusty Weisner

Kevin,

I don't get it.  Had Oxbow 3rd, but not second in tickets?  That's trying to slice it way too finely.  I am all for "keying" on top, but underneath there's an element of randomness I wouldn't try to predict.  There's no difference between second and third.

And If the horse is better than 10-1 and you like him, heck, why not just put him on top?  I think a lot of people are like me (just not yesterday, thank God):  they can't believe they have hooked a longshot, they aren't quite willing to bet it to win -- it seems just too good to be true.  It's like when a beautiful woman shows an interest in you.  It's hard to believe you've hooked one.  That's when your worst bet is to play it safe.

09 Jun 2013 8:25 PM
Mary Zinke

Just got back this morning. I'll have to catch up on all of the Belmont Friday and Saturday big winners here, but a preliminary congrats to all who scored big !   I loved Belmont Park.So beautiful, and even more huge than Santa Anita. Met Mr.Durkin, said hello to Mr.Mott(he trains "my" Royal Delta, as you know).  I still haven't found out why that 5 was dq'd on Friday.  That was an evil dq, since I had that horse.  Maybe I'll see why it was a legit take down.  I didn't have Palace Malice, and I'm saddened by the news of Point Of Entry's condylar fracture.

KY, He gets carrots or mints or whatever he likes, yes?  Those were some blazing fast final two fractions. Half just about the same as last race, but the sub 12 from the half to 5f and final 1/8 not much over 12, man!  He's a good boy. Congrats on the placing.

*she's not me ;)

09 Jun 2013 8:48 PM
Kevin

Rusty,

When looking at the race, I figured Freedom Child and Oxbow would burn each other out, but gave Oxbow a chance to hang on for 3d.  

Thought Overanalyze or Orb would get up for 2d.  Half way down the lane, it looked like Orb would pass Oxbow, but he flattened out.

Did I got to lean on my Tri?  Hindsight says yes.  

Can't bet them all, the only frustrating thing is that Oxbow was my futures bet in all 3 pools.  Then for some reason I gave up on him.  

09 Jun 2013 9:16 PM
KY VET

big horse was 3rd.....yea mary, hes 7 for 7 with 4 wins 1 2nd 2 3rds.......cant expect more i guess.......race paid for months training.......thought he'd fire big........a little dissapointed but i'll take it...

09 Jun 2013 9:19 PM
1:08 and change

Rusty,

Yes I had the super.

09 Jun 2013 11:45 PM
Pedigree Ann

Predict - every once in a while a prodigy like Steve Cauthen comes along, who seems to have knew how to ride like a pro in his cradle. (Well, his mom was a trainer and his dad a farrier, so maybe he did!)

We forget sometimes how many years it takes to learn all the skills that make up a top money rider like a Stevens or a Smith. And Rosie will get there, barring injury, IMHO. She's been leading rider at several good meets in Maryland and at Fair Grounds, where the locals usually prevail. Julie Krone started riding in 1981 and didn't win her first track title until 1987 and her first G1 winner until 1988. Experience is a great teacher.

Also, Unlimited Budget may not be up to 12f; her damside is a good Florida breeding, but Valid Appeal over Notebook looks like a roadblock at 9f for her. Not a problem in most mares' races, tho.

P.S. Everybody was talking about how big a filly she is, as if this had any bearing on whether she could run 12f competitively or beat the boys. Genuine Risk was an average-sized filly, bred for a distance and trained for it; she won the Derby and was second in the Belmont.

10 Jun 2013 11:24 AM
THE KEYMASTER

Rusty & Kevin -

Congratulations on your score with Palace Malice in the Belmont!

Furthermore, thank you for posting your selections and analysis prior to the race.

10 Jun 2013 12:16 PM
1:08 and change

I'll take that as another shot at me. LOL.  Guess May 21st was too soon for a selection.

By the way, long live the FLOW.  

10 Jun 2013 1:13 PM
1:08 and change

Vet:

Referring to your Boston bomber post, have you seen the photo of the first brother on the slab?

10 Jun 2013 1:16 PM
1:08 and change

All non-believers... flow boys had PM as only BOLD Upgrade on the card.  LOL, man, what a day one horse can make.

10 Jun 2013 1:29 PM
1:08 and change

Plod,

I apologize.  Race 3 had the other 2 bolds for the day.  They resulted in a $142 exacta for $2.  I unfortunately missed that one.

10 Jun 2013 1:50 PM
Rusty Weisner

1:08 and change,

Killed him with your bare hands, huh?

Post some picks, not current events.  What's next, politics?  Come on.

10 Jun 2013 1:57 PM
1:08 and change

Please, nobody else read this but Rusty...

Rusty,

I only post after the race.  That way I look way better in the eyes of all the bloggers.

10 Jun 2013 4:06 PM
derbylin

Please don't take this as an excuse blog, but I would like to see Johnny V back on Orb next time.

10 Jun 2013 4:22 PM
KY VET

no i havent 108........but i saw another road kill....a racoon......probably looked the same.....except the mask.......lol

10 Jun 2013 6:32 PM
KY VET

98 beyer....belmont.....test of champions? the belmont has been so, so weak in the last years......embarrassing.....

10 Jun 2013 7:23 PM
Old Old Cat

I feel it's quite unfair to ponftificate about malibu moon only running sprints.  The cold facts are that he was injured and retired from racing after a spectacular 2yo win.  There were no longer distance races available to him at that age.  We do not have any idea of what his racing capabilities were.  The only logical,sensible way to evaluate him is through his offspring.  What does he throw..

10 Jun 2013 8:18 PM
1:08 and change

Here ya go vet...

www.liveleak.com/view

10 Jun 2013 10:18 PM
JayJay

Rusty : This is just for you, I was on Palace Malice late 2012, I think I've mentioned it more than once so that can only mean one thing...  I had the exacta, trifecta and superfecta!  I also had the triple and P4 back and forward of Palace Malice.  It was indeed a very very good day!  I'm buying some islands somewhere with my winnings.  Long live guessdicapping !

11 Jun 2013 1:53 AM
Rusty Weisner

1:08 and change,

It doesn't occur to you that a lot of people were maimed in Boston, some even killed...

...and that it's a small world and there's a chance that someone here might know someone who, say, lost a couple fingers or had their leg amputated below the knee, or both?

And you get a vicarious kick out of the aftermath, like it's all a tv show, tough guy?

I could laugh off the taunts and the phony picks after the races, but this is going too far.  You're a creep.  I want you banned from the site.  I wish the absentee host of the blog would step in, but if not, maybe we could put it to a vote with the other commenters.  I'll happily leave if they pick you over me.    

11 Jun 2013 7:32 AM
Rusty Weisner

KV VET,

This is a supposed to be horse-racing blog, an oasis, and you're crapping in it and encouraging Igor here to do the same.

Nice job.

11 Jun 2013 7:34 AM
Cathy in Washington

Hi Pete,

You did the sire analysis for Curlin back in November. Are there any other sire's that got a Classic Winner from their first foal crop? Think his stud fee will go up for next year?

I don't bet but have several friends that went with Palace Malice and won big.

11 Jun 2013 10:24 AM
1:08 and change

Fairmount Park

Race 1:

#4 Sissy Style Sunday

#3 Alaskan Comet

WP / Exacta box

11 Jun 2013 10:52 AM
Rusty Weisner

1:08 and change,

Much better!  Bygones!  Good luck!

I won't be back betting till July.

11 Jun 2013 11:29 AM
Coldfacts

Pedigree Ann,

"The past is not the future. Dominance of classic races by a sire line fades as surely as it once grew and the baton is passed to another. Read your Tesio."

You do realize that Place Malice's victory in the 2013 Belmont extends the dominance of the  Mr. Prospector sire line to 12 of the last 16 and 16 wins over all. This hardly represents a sire line that is fading in its dominance.

Federico Tesio died in 1954. Mr. Prospector was foaled in 1970. He could not have known that a stallion could be capable of what is turning out to be the endless dominance of the Triple Crown series of races.

The 2013 Belmont brought the number of TC races won by his stallion line to 36.

The Mr. Prospector sire line like the great Jamaican sprinter Usain Bolt does to conform to traditions. For this line, there is no past and based of yearly results the future is bright.

11 Jun 2013 12:30 PM
Coldfacts

Old Old Cat,

Raise A Native ran only sprints as well. He got injured and was retired early.

His sons Majestic Prince, Exclusive Native, Alydar and Mr. Prospector combined for what has become a Dynasty.

A great stallion is born and performance on the track does not influence its ability.

I much prefer lightly raced stallions.

11 Jun 2013 12:39 PM
Cathy in Washington

Think I answered my own question.

The only stallion in recent years to get a G1 winner, not in the TC series, but in the Travers out of his first crop was Bernardini. That being Stay Thirsty.

Bernardini goes back to Mr Prospector thru his dam Fappiano.

11 Jun 2013 1:58 PM
Mary Zinke

I agree with Rusty about not giving those particular criminals any horse racing blog space. Rusty, here's what I think, because I have had to deal with an ongoing situation concerning someone "socially networking" by the farthest stretch of the imagination, on another horse racing website.  It's not that some people are too ugly or too important of a private individual to chat at facebook or by e-mail, it's that they think they are.  This blog and others are their means of reaching out/communicating. Also, speaking privately, in their opinion, does not lead to world famousness and may immediately lead to some way in which they may have already overstepped some boundaries.

11 Jun 2013 1:58 PM
1:08 and change

FP R2

3 / 6,7

11 Jun 2013 2:22 PM
1:08 and change

Tough track this is.

11 Jun 2013 2:34 PM
1:08 and change

FP R3 #9

Last one before I have to go start picking up soda cans.

11 Jun 2013 2:51 PM
1:08 and change

FP R4 #2 Seyrule....why?. I have not idea.

11 Jun 2013 3:12 PM
KY VET

RUSTY......are you serious? That ignorant? To be the king of caring more about IMPORTANT things? YOU CARE MORE ABOUT EVERYTHING IMPORTANT, THAN EVERYONE ON HERE!!!! What a big heart you have! YOU PUT THINGS ON PEOPLE....like 108 doesnt have a heart....because why? he posted a pic? He's a creep? YOURE A GOOD PERSON, and he is a really bad guy huh? YOU DECIDED! wow.....pick 1 winner.....now youre GOD........(and i dont mean game on dude)....i mean the big guy....(by that i dont mean dale romans)....the guy on the cross.............WE SHOULD BAN EVERYONE YOU DONT LIKE i think.......

11 Jun 2013 3:12 PM
Mary Zinke

Ooh CAPS.  So no one can say someone else was being gross?  I'm going to steal some bacon off of that breakfast platter, just to socialize, lol. Banned? Like that would stop anyone. Y'all already have fake names. If ever banned, create new ones.

11 Jun 2013 3:31 PM
1:08 and change

Seyrule... to borrow a phrase from the Vet... BOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMM!!!!!! 7-1 What's my ROI, LMAO!

11 Jun 2013 3:41 PM
1:08 and change

Well said Vet!  Lmao on the GOD comments... we posted one line.  He that is all heart blew it way out of proportion.

11 Jun 2013 3:43 PM
Rusty Weisner

KY VET,

Find another blog to send each other pictures.  There are lots of sites for that kind of thing.  Wink, wink.  

Don't worry, I won't be betting again till Saratoga opens.  You guys have the run of the place.

11 Jun 2013 3:43 PM
Rusty Weisner

Mary Zinke,

New names?  Come on.  It would be like trying to put a disguise on a chimpanzee.

11 Jun 2013 3:52 PM
THE KEYMASTER

Cathy in Washington -

Don't forget about Unbridled siring KY Derby champion Grindstone in his first crop (Grindstone was actually one of Unbridled's first foals, as he was a January foal).  Unbridled also had juvenile Champion and KY Derby favorite Unbridled's Song out of his first crop.

11 Jun 2013 3:57 PM
derbylin

For Cathy in Washington.  Birdstone sired Mine that Bird and Summer Bird in his first crop, both classic winners and he himself a classic winner.

11 Jun 2013 4:07 PM
Cathy in Washington

To The Keymaster and Derbylin Thanks of the information. Was curious, not that many.

11 Jun 2013 4:54 PM
JayJay

I'm sure folks are flocking to the flow to hang out with this KY and 1:08 kids.  Great marketing for that site... class act subscribers.  Makes me wonder what they actually do as a hobby when they're not hitting winners...probably picking on kids at their local school just to make themselves feel "tough."

11 Jun 2013 5:55 PM
Old Old Cat

Cold Facts

Sorry I misunderstood your post. I thought you were criticizing Malibu Moon for having only run short.  After re-reading I realize that you are saying Unbridled should not be labeled a "sprinter only" because he should be evaluated on his progeny, not his race record, which I agree with.  And you were not labeling Malibu Moon as a "sprinter only", which I also agree with.

Sorry for my misinterpretation.

11 Jun 2013 7:37 PM
Pedigree Ann

Coldfacts -

Mr. Prospector's dominance is not as impressive as Pharlaris' is, since Phalaris is the tail-male ancestor of Native Dancer, Northern Dancer, and Bold Ruler, as well as of Buckpasser, Hail to Reason, Sir Gaylord, and Blushing Groom.

In another few generation, Mr. P's line will be subdivided as Phalaris's has been and whichever of the Fappiano, Forty Niner, Machiavellian, Afleet, Woodman, Carson City, Gone West, Smart Strike, etc. branches that have survived will be identified by a nearer ancestor. Mr. P. will have become as remote as Phalaris and as unremarked in common conversation. Already Northern Dancer has devolved into the Danzig (subheads Danehill, Lure, Green Desert, Langfuhr, Chief's Crown, etc.), Nijinsky, Nuryev, Storm Cat, Vice Regent, Sadler's Wells, and Lyphard sire lines (I may have missed or two).

12 Jun 2013 8:30 PM
Forbidden Apple

Orb was simply not fast enough, coat hanger. He is now at the farm for some well needed rest. I am predicting some new 3 year old stars to develop and beat Orb, Oxbow, and Palace Malice.

Plod,

If everything goes well, I believe Carnival Court will take the same summer road that Questing did. Her maiden win was spectacular!

Take a look at the 5th race on saturday, first time dirt and U.S., Celebrated Talent. I don't like the 6f distance, but this horse is training very well.

Rusty,

Save your cash for Saratoga, play smart and book your room now. I'll be posting many winners this year. 2012 was my best summer ever, I'm looking to top it this year.

13 Jun 2013 8:32 AM
KY VET

What a bunch of GARBAGE! Orb not fast enough? Apple, when are you gonna learn? He showed effects of many wins in a row! he is tired....horses are flesh and blood.....not machines....orb ran a 106? the belmont was weak, a 98! thats how palice won.....please learn the game people.......

13 Jun 2013 4:29 PM
KY VET

so.....a horse named carnival court won impressively.......recently? any clue as to why the horse won this late? usually all bad reasons.........

13 Jun 2013 4:31 PM
Forbidden Apple

Hey big mouth expert handicapper,

You are the one person on these blogs that said Orb had peaked even before the KY Derby. He proved you wrong while winning in an average time of 2:02 and 4/5. Was he tired in the Preakness, or just not good enough. Tired in the Belmont or just not good enough?

Did anyone ask why Curlin did not race or win at 2? Many horses have little or no campaign at 2. Not every trainer rushes them along quickly like your beloved Pletcher and Baffert. No surprise that more negativity is flowing from your mouth. This is the reason why I have stayed away from these blogs since the KY Derby. Win or lose, always negative energy from some people. By the way, this filly did run in April at 6f, she is far from a sprinter.

13 Jun 2013 6:27 PM
KY VET

always negative? check out your idiotic post.......it starts out, saying Orb is not fast enough..........dont say something stupid, you wont get the truth back..........i have nothing against you personally, you just post things that are stupider, and stupider.......a 106 beyer isnt fast enough?

13 Jun 2013 8:11 PM
Forbidden Apple

If I run a road race and other people finish in front of me, then they are faster than me. What is so stupid about stating the truth? Did you frame your KY Derby win ticket on Normandy Invasion? My win ticket was cashed, thank you very much.

13 Jun 2013 8:32 PM
Plod Boy Phil

VET-

I think FA may have been responding indirectly to a post about John R getting on Orb next time from Derbylin on June 10.

Perhaps he'd have been better served adding 'in the Belmont' to the sentence, as I believe that's what he meant.

Bottom line is it's not worthy of mucking up the water over, is it ?

13 Jun 2013 8:44 PM
Forbidden Apple

You are 100% correct Plod, thank you. Anyway, remember that Celebrated Talent is very live.

13 Jun 2013 9:06 PM
Forbidden Apple

KY Stupider,

In case you did not know this, stupider is not a real word.

13 Jun 2013 11:15 PM
Kevin

I have a potential sleeper at Churchill Race 9) #4 Hip for sixty nine.  

Last race I bet him, had a poor start, but came running for a distant fourth against a speed favoring track.  20-1 ML.  Not crazy about his chances but throwing some money down.  

14 Jun 2013 8:01 AM
Rusty Weisner

Forbidden Apple,

I love this guy.  Here were his TC picks:  Normandy Invasion in Kentucky Derby, Revolutionary in Belmont.  He may have had Itsmyluckyday in the Preakness but I don't remember him every coming forward with an explicit pick.  So, sucker picks in the Derby and Belmont, though not the stupidest picks -- still nothing that gives him the right to make judgments now based on hindsight.

I love his slavish devotion to Beyers.  Throw out Orb's Kentucky Derby on a wet track and he's all 90's.

And get the selective reasoning, if you can call it that.  Orb's "tired".  How about Oxbow?  Or Palace Malice, for that matter, who ran his eyeballs out in the Derby after three two-turn routes in five weeks after never having run two turns.

14 Jun 2013 9:12 AM
Rusty Weisner

Forbidden Apple,

Don't stay away from the blog.  I would prefer to see this kind of obnoxious character, with his ghoulish proclivities, outnumbered here.  I'm here to talk racing and learn and like to see others go out on limb with real picks where they explain their handicapping.

14 Jun 2013 9:21 AM
Rusty Weisner

Kevin,

You've notably invited advice and critiques.  If I hadn't won Saturday I wouldn't offer it, but here goes:

I question your P4 wagering strategy, for a couple reasons.  First, your ticket is expensive, but spreads evenly and doesn't go very deep on any race.  You had 4horses x 3h x 3h x 4h for $72 for a 50-cent ticket.  The other, bigger thing is that you had two phenomenal win picks Saturday:  9-1 Forty Tales and 14-1 Palace Malice.  Why didn't you single either one (or both!) on a P4 ticket(s)?  Those tickets would have cost you $18 and/or $24.  

Since I can still feel an aura of luck about me I might try to get away for a few early evening races at Charles Town's bullring tomorrow.  More of a social outing, though.  

14 Jun 2013 10:25 AM
Rusty Weisner

Kevin,

re:  CD9

I feel like you're on fire right now and giving away money for free.  I'll take a look at this one.

14 Jun 2013 10:29 AM
Rusty Weisner

Kevin,

Don't listen to me, but I won't play a horse that's been so misused by his trainer and/or owner, out of his depth in two straight graded stakes.  I'll pass.

14 Jun 2013 12:32 PM
Rusty Weisner

He ran against Cold Facts last out!  Cold Facts ran like Footbridge.

14 Jun 2013 12:39 PM
KY VET

Stupider......if you were paying attn.......is a running joke on this blog........just like rusty....whos horse knowledge, if you put it all in a thimble....you would still have enough room for another thimble.......

14 Jun 2013 2:07 PM
Kevin

Rusty,

Thanks for your comments.  Acknowledge that my betting is much worse than my handicapping.  I bet scared on my Pick 4 ticket and spread, costing money and eventually kept me from cashing.  

Don't disgree on Hip4 being misused, but at 20-1 wil take a shot anyway.  

14 Jun 2013 2:29 PM
Rusty Weisner

I like Carnival Carl in R3 at CT tomorrow.  It's a MdSpWt.  He's a second time starter He ran third his first out.  It was the fastest of the races run by any of the entries.  He gets blinkers.  His trainer wins races.  He is a better bet than the favorite.  I'll try singling him in DD and P3.  I also kind of like longshot Indispensable underneath -- closed a lot of ground to just miss last out and this time will get blinkers, too:  I like the angle of a horse that will be trying a change of pace.

In R2, an allowance, I kind of like Ice Fighter and Imgoingtosmokeyou, though may take others, too.  Ice Fighter is getting Lasix after a long layoff and drops from open to state-bred, the other one shows a pattern I like:  turning back to 7f from a route where he ran up near the lead for half the race; that was only 7 days ago so I take the race to have been a workout; there's also a class drop from open company to state-bred.  I'll play these two in a double with my horse in R3.

14 Jun 2013 2:32 PM
Rusty Weisner

From the authority on all things thimble-sized.

14 Jun 2013 2:36 PM
Rusty Weisner

Why would anyone be paying attention to KY VET's running jokes?  

14 Jun 2013 2:40 PM
Mike Relva

Forbidden Apple

Regarding your comments about Orb,KY Vet is on point with his reply.

It's like when Animal Kingdom was laid up about a third of his career and your refusal to cut him any slack. When asked if you could play basketball if injured, as expected no response from you.

14 Jun 2013 6:34 PM
Mike Relva

Go Paynter!

14 Jun 2013 6:36 PM
Kevin

Sorry, have a change to Race 9 at Churchill. Its actually the #8 Night Seeker that I like.  Must have typed in the wrong name in my stable alert when reviewing races.  

14 Jun 2013 6:46 PM
Kevin

Oh, that's funny.  Wish I hadn't noticed the mistake and kept my original bet.  36-1 "mistake" beats out my real horse 10-1 for 3d.

14 Jun 2013 6:56 PM
1:08 and change

Paynter back on the track and owning it!!! What a story!

14 Jun 2013 9:53 PM
Monarchos Matt

Wow, so happy to see Paynter dominate today. Just an amazing story and I am a huge fan of his entire line, on both sides....one of the main reasons I stayed on Oxbow as long as I did, in fact.

In other news...how on Earth is there not a new blog for the Churchill Card tomorrow?

I'm sticking with Ron The Greek to repeat at a square price in the Foster. There should be plenty of pace and I'm starting to think he might be better at 9f than 10f. Exacta key on top of Fort Larned and Take Charge Indy. Sucecessful Dan is an awesome horse but is worth betting against as the favorite after getting a ridiculously easy trip over a different surface in his last.

Royal Delta- Ice Cream Silence straight exacta in the Fleur de Lis...have to shoot for something underneath her and I think that one might be undervalued coming off a tough trip on poly, may hang on being forwardly placed in a weak, short field here.

Have to stick with Code West and bet against the trendy pick Abstraction in the Matt Winn, sticking to my guns. Think Uncaptured runs a big one undeneath him as he moves back to dirt finally over a track he loves.

Kitten's Dumplings over Miss Lucky Sevens, who could be lone speed on the turf, in the last race.

14 Jun 2013 11:44 PM
Mary Zinke

Hill Prince, just my top picks. I'd add more to bet a super: 12,9,5,11.

Vanity: Lady Of Fifty, Byrama, Open Water, Esentepe.

Stepen Foster: Ron The Greek, Fort Larned, Take Charge Indy, Golden Ticket.

Bed O' Roses: 6,2,4.

Obeah(passel of hounds, sorry)3 looks like the obvious winner. 3,5,1, then could go either 4 or 6, but not the 2.  Who are these fillies?  Although I do remember the 6.

Fleur De Lis: Royal Delta

Pegasus: Verrazano, luckyday, Gefest.

15 Jun 2013 2:27 AM
Kevin

Very contentious card a Churchill.

My best bet of the day is #14 Moshaagib in the 4th (if he draws in).  

Going to also work an early PIck 4 starting Race 1) 1,7/1,3/4,6,8,9/2,5,12,14.  

The only horse I'm worried about busting this is the #5 in the 2d race.  

15 Jun 2013 9:37 AM
Mike Relva

Royal Delta, no prob.

15 Jun 2013 11:39 AM
Rusty Weisner

CT 1-3

P3:  3,5,8/3,4,10,1,7,9/6

P3:  3,5,8/3,4,10/6

DD R2-3: 3,4,10/6

R3: 6

15 Jun 2013 12:38 PM
Mary Zinke

Wound up with this Hill Prince super: 10,11,12,1.

15 Jun 2013 1:57 PM
Mary Zinke

Stop fretting.  I bet it's a bigger than average thimble, KY.

15 Jun 2013 2:50 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Titletown Five returns Sunday in Churchill's 8th- a 5f turf sprint.

15 Jun 2013 3:58 PM
Little Bill

Played the 5 in the Hill Prince.

Good luck to all.

15 Jun 2013 4:39 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Kevin-

You either substituted the 2nd race winner or got him by rule....excellent P4 hit, that.

15 Jun 2013 7:32 PM
KY VET

Choices......either run a hurt horse #2, or retire him......shoot up the ankles? or retire him, and take a loss....................horse #2 gets to retire, and start his new life........................karma come back to me..........horse #1 the big horse is the money train now......

15 Jun 2013 7:41 PM
KY VET

wow! Kobes back!

15 Jun 2013 7:48 PM
Plod Boy Phil

VET-

Let him enjoy the good life.

15 Jun 2013 7:54 PM
Mary Zinke

You will enjoy good karma with horse #1, KY.  I think you'll see him get that record.  Maybe the famous Jessie and I will come witness his record setting win. Don't worry; we won't bother you, but do guard your bacon.

I'm just a tiny bit ticked off about the Fleur De Lis. I'll be over it it in 10 or 20 years. No problem.

15 Jun 2013 9:19 PM
KY VET

yea......mines not the only one whos retiring...she was good.......too many races....

15 Jun 2013 9:42 PM
Kevin

Phil, got the winner in race 2 by the scratch. Lucked out.  Thanks.  Another good day.

16 Jun 2013 1:11 AM
Kevin

Looks like rain for all east cost racing today.  Going to sit today out and wait for better weather.

16 Jun 2013 10:30 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Have one at Monmouth I like quite a bit, providing the weather holds:

Race 4 - 11 Smiling Bob

16 Jun 2013 10:57 AM
Kevin

Phil, Smiling Bob went way wide and couldnt close.  Didn't run bad though.  Maybe one to keep an eye on next time.  

16 Jun 2013 2:30 PM
Kevin

With the weather holding off and all the speed in the 5th at Churchill, I'm betting the #8 to win.  Currently 4-1.  

16 Jun 2013 2:40 PM
Rusty Weisner

Monarchos Matt,

So what happened?  You picked two stakes winners.  I'm hoping congrats are in order.

Kevin,

Congrats on P4 (?)

Since I was at the track (Charles Town) I hung out a little at the paddock and struck up a conversation with a young lady who turned out to be Carnival Carl's groom.  An auspicious sign, so I put a few more bucks down.  He came in second and I lost $36.

Back to my losing ways.  Vacation time!

See you all in late July.

16 Jun 2013 2:58 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Kevin -

That will depend on the Flow figure - clearly asking too much with the short distance.

Did you notice the 1 in CD's 9th?  The first horse I've seen exiting the Anusara race I said would produce multiple winners.

16 Jun 2013 3:11 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Roberto Alvarado just won his 3rd straight at Monmouth, Races 4-5-6.  The P3 paid $3,600 for $1.  Two of the wins were for Derek Ryan.  

16 Jun 2013 3:35 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Not a bad race by T5 on the turf - looked a bit rushed on the turn back to 5f but seemed to be going well enough late.

16 Jun 2013 4:38 PM
Plod Boy Phil

One more play at Monmouth

Race 12 - 3 Evolution Rocks

Will play a DD using Verrazano in the Pegasus. I've stated all along that a big race comparable to his January efforts would set Itsmyluckyday back again, so I'll stick by that opinion.

16 Jun 2013 4:48 PM
Kevin

Phil, I did notice Cookie in the 9th.  Finished a distant 4th.  

I played Reason to be Proud in the 8th at Churchill at 45-1.  Went 7 wide and finished a close 4th.  He'll win next turf out, but at 3-1.  

16 Jun 2013 5:06 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Missed the early part of the Cookie race - will have to watch again,  but she may need claimers.

Needed Reason to be Proud for 3rd-keyed T5 1st and 2nd with the 5 with 1,10. You'll get more than 3-1 with a 4th at 45-1. It looked to me like the 8 finished best of them all easily galloping past the winner and clear of the rest shortly after the wire.

16 Jun 2013 5:21 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Churchill's 10th:

Wow, very big numbers

16 Jun 2013 5:30 PM
Mike Relva

It's My Lucky Day!!!!!!!!!

16 Jun 2013 6:03 PM
Plod Boy Phil

What did I tell you?

When the target top is a negative thing for the horse,  a return to that level results in worse damage than occurred the first time.

To take one from VET - learn people.  

16 Jun 2013 6:07 PM
Plod Boy Phil

For the record, below is a post from the day after the Preakness:

VET, good read on Itsmylucky. His effort today was the kind of race that will likely blow him up again.  Well done.

16 Jun 2013 7:55 PM
Mike Relva

Phil-Thanks for not disappointing me for not throwing out at least  good wishes for It's My Lucky Day.

16 Jun 2013 8:36 PM
Plod Boy Phil

He doesn't read this Blog.

16 Jun 2013 9:36 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Mike-

If they asked me,  I'd have told them to retire him after the Preakness or give him four months off.

They didn't ask.

16 Jun 2013 9:43 PM
JayJay

PBP : What should we learn about Smiling Bob or Evolution Rocks ?   You picked one winner today, Verrazano...wow!

16 Jun 2013 10:16 PM
Mike Relva

Phil

Why retire him after Preakness?

Perhaps one day you'll learn it's not always cashing a ticket. Probably not,though.

16 Jun 2013 10:41 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Why retire him after the Preakness ?

So he doesn't hurt himself like he did today.

His race in the Preakness did exactly what I wrote it would, it 'blew him up'.  It was predictable and could have been avoided with retirement or an extended layoff,  though the latter would still not solve the problem of reduced tolerance to the physical stress of high level performances. In fact, the level of performance that would cause damage would get lower and lower.

It has nothing to do with me cashing a bet. The exact opposite is true.  Your anger should be directed at the people responsible for the horse's care and well being, not me for foreshadowing it.

16 Jun 2013 11:27 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Furthermore,  let's look at Royal Delta.  

Why take her to Dubai to face men ?  Did she always want to see that part of the world despite being aware that few horses return the same ?

The answers are 'no' and 'no'.  It was not in her best interest,  but it would certainly put more money, fame and glory to her human connections.

After making the dreadful mistake,  why continue to run her in an effort to win the G2 Fleur de Lis ?  Are you kidding me.  She put her belly down for those people at great risk to herself in that race.  At the 1/8 pole, I feared she would break down while fans were rooting for her to hang on and get in the exacta.

Maybe one day, you will get it.  Then again, I doubt it.

16 Jun 2013 11:34 PM
JayJay

PBP:  I'm still waiting on what we learned about Smiling Bob and Evolution Rocks... is this your way of taking the attention away from your horrendous picks the last few weeks ?  Funny how you focus on everything else when your picks aren't winning but you get lucky with one pick and everything is about the flow...lol.  Do people continue to pay for this stuff ?  Seriously ?

KY is the last person I would listen to about anything horses, you would be a close 2nd...the guy is an idiot.  You two are the only ones here that are so desperate to prove you guys can handicap, then posts things that is totally the opposite.  Actually, KY doesn't even post anything about handicapping, he only posts useless information.

17 Jun 2013 12:55 AM
Mike Relva

Phil

Not angry and btw I stand corrected,you're right.

17 Jun 2013 9:37 AM
Mike Relva

Forbidden Apple

Reality says Vet isn't going away anytime soon. And why should he?

17 Jun 2013 9:42 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Mike -

Be well.

17 Jun 2013 9:56 AM
Plod Boy Phil

JayJay

For the record -

PBP picks the last 'couple weeks' (June 5-June 16)

11 horses: Tiz Teresa, Punctual Jeff, Belle of the West, Alcomatch, Zee Bros, Forty Tales, Smiling Bob, Cookie, Evolution Rocks, Titletown Five, Verrazano.

$22 wagered returned $41.20

You ?

17 Jun 2013 10:20 AM
1:08 and change

JayJay:

Funny how "lucky" the flow was upgrading winners in four of the five major three year old races so far this year.

Oaks: Princess of Sylmar 38-1

Derby: no winner

Black Eyed Susan: 50shadesofhay 2-1

Preakness: Oxbow 15-1

Belmont: Palace Malice 13-1

Yep, that's just plain lucky.  Keep bashing the guy... it keeps making you look "stupider" each time.

17 Jun 2013 10:57 AM
THE KEYMASTER

108+

Where were those picks you refer to posted prior to the race?

17 Jun 2013 11:16 AM
Coldfacts

Rusty Weisner,

Footbridge finished a badly beaten last on a Synthetic track. Dylan Thomas finished 1st in the 2006 G1 Irish Championship Stakes contested on turf. His next start was in the 2006 G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont on dirt. He finished badly beaten last by in excess of 20L. He won five of his subsequent 8 races and was runner up in the rest all were contested on turf.

What the moral of the story? A racing surface can make a lot of differences in the performance of a horse.

17 Jun 2013 11:59 AM
1:08 and change

They are on the sheet he emails you the day before each race when you are a subscriber, hah.

You think he's going to come on a blog and stab loyal subscribers in the back by posting those picks to the public.  Or sit here race by race and post them right before the start?  Don't think he's that desperate.

Plod provides more insightful and meaningful info than anyone on here without taking personal shots unlike some.

Quit with the hate already.

17 Jun 2013 12:07 PM
THE KEYMASTER

108 -

How are we to know what you claim is true?  There is no evidence here that support any of what you say.

There is no personal hatred here... I don't know you or Plop personally.

However, I dislike false statistics and people making obnoxious claims with no evidence of fact to support their claims.

17 Jun 2013 12:49 PM
Rusty Weisner

The essential dishonesty here is the claim that an "upgrade" is the same thing as a bet.  It is not.  To put it another way:  saying something is an upgrade is not the same as betting it.  Dr. Frankenstein and his Igor would have us believe that every "upgrade" that wins was a bet.  Let's not talk about the ones that don't win.  Or, to take another example:  three of the top five finishers (if not four) were "downgrades" according to this methodology.  Think about it:  three or four of the top five were bad bets, according to them, while Normandy Invasion, fourth, was a good one.  Zero factoring of pedigree, for example.  Bad handicapping.  One race is not dispositive, but it was the biggest race of the year and the methodology for betting it was inept.

Then there's the insulting banality of this "flow" and "upgrade" stuff.  It's just a fancy way of saying horses benefited from the pace or not.  These guys don't own this Handicapping 101 principle despite their attempts to put their patent on it.  Any and every decent handicapper would factor the scalding pace of the Derby into their picks, i.e., they would upgrade Oxbow and Palace Malice, and likewise downgrade Orb, Golden Soul, Revolutionary.  And all the turf writers did, including our very own Pete Denk!  Or me and several others.  We owe PBP a royalty now.  It's galling.

More galling still is the crowing about "upgrades" after the races have been run after others scratch and claw and lay it on the line on this blog, the attempt to bluff us into believing they really made all these bets.  And the one that takes the cake is Oxbow, where PBP's only comment before the Preakness was "too many races".

By the way, Oxbow was almost certainly a "downgrade" in the Preakness after controlling the pace.  Again, crickets from the "flow boys" on that.  Lame.

17 Jun 2013 2:04 PM
1:08 and change

Go to his site... he has the cards from four of the days posted.  Nobody on here is the end all be all handicapper.  I get it.  Like I have stated in the past, it's another tool and it's a darn good one.  I have no dog in the hunt here.  I just don't like the attacks. Key, I suggest just signing up for a free initial trial to check it out.

17 Jun 2013 2:07 PM
THE KEYMASTER

Well said Rusty.  Thank you.

17 Jun 2013 2:14 PM
Rusty Weisner

1:08 and change,

You're not doing PBP any favors in moving his product.

PBP has been called out.  Since that's happened I've noticed he's mended his ways:  notably, he makes picks on almost daily basis, good ones even, and useful comments.  I refer to him for the "smarter" one because I respect his knowledge and experience.  What I don't like is the exaggerated claims about the "flow" method, which is distinctly part of a sales pitch, particularly not in the thick of the TC races where he made zero (0) good picks on this blog.  The product would sell a lot better if he advertised a Princess of Sylmar, or Oxbow, or Palace Malice, BEFORE the races; don't give us the crap about "betraying" the subscribers.  And even then, I wouldn't be that impressed - after all, a bunch of people here had these horses all by their little selves.  Like I said Belmont day, I didn't doubt you "had" Palace Malice, because he was a victim of pace and therefore an "upgrade", but, come on, a bunch of people here had Palace Malice.  It doesn't mean they bet big or even cashed. For all we know you bet a few sodas can from Fairmount Park on him to show.

17 Jun 2013 2:20 PM
Rusty Weisner

I meant:  Oxbow was almost certainly a "downgrade" in the Belmont after controlling the pace in the Preakness.

17 Jun 2013 2:22 PM
Rusty Weisner

Clarify:  three of the top five finishers in the Derby were downgrades.

17 Jun 2013 2:24 PM
1:08 and change

Rusty,

Actually Oxbow was upgraded going into the Preakness and neutral going into the Belmont.

The only downgrades in the Belmont were Revolutionary and Golden Soul.

17 Jun 2013 2:29 PM
Rusty Weisner

1:08 and change,

Ooh. You walked into that one.

Oxbow should have been a "downgrade" out of the Preakness.  Here's Dave Rodman's exclamation at the half mile of the race:  "And it's a very reasonable pace indeed!"  He knew Oxbow had it won because the pace was soft enough.

In appraising the Preakness I'll take Maryland's track caller over you guys any day.  

It's inept practice of your own methodology if you didn't "downgrade" him for the Belmont.  Then again, maybe you're just making up stuff after the race was run.  As a non-subscriber, I'll never know.

It just goes to demonstrate the point I'm making:  the pace of a horse's last race -- oh, I'm sorry, "flow" -- is not the only element in handicapping.  Happily, I ignored that single element and had him underneath. There were other reasons to take Oxbow there:  the general favorability of the Belmont to a front-running horse with a good pedigree for the distance, Oxbow's proven ability and resilience, good odds.  My only pang of regret from last Saturday is not giving him preference in exactas and trifectas over late-running sucker horses I had, Golden Soul and Revolutionary.

17 Jun 2013 3:07 PM
1:08 and change

Personally I'll take myself and I am sure PBP is comfortable taking himself over Dave Rodman any day.

And flow does not equal pace.  

17 Jun 2013 3:48 PM
Rusty Weisner

1:08 and change,

You know what?  Let's call it bygones.

I posted an uninterrupted string of losers from last year's Breeder's Cup until this year's Belmont.  I've lost a bundle on three straight Derbies.  Yet no one here ridiculed me for my long and frequent comments, except the obnoxious KY VET, and even he offered the semi-constructive criticism of calling me "wishy-washy".  I've welcomed criticism and advice, not least of all from PBP.  

Now all is forgiven, rewarded even.

Every race it's like the world begins anew and nearly every handicapper here, even seemingly snakebit losers (Me! Kevin!), can have insights that are worth paying attention to and even cashing on.

I like the blog.  I only bet big half a dozen times a year, so I need a way to keep my head in the game between these forays; contributing is one way.

Now that I've said my piece it's really vacation time.  I like the 3-yo races, so when I come back the Haskell is next for me.  It's one I tend to win (what could be easier than a turnback to 9f on a frequently speed-kind surface) -- it was my only big day last year (and only one of two winning days), $1100, with a big P4 in the middle of the card and a big, lucky P3 with Paynter sandwiched between two longshots.  Which reminds me to mention how happy I am about Paynter, my valiant, losing Belmont single last year.  You don't see them come back like that a lot.  

17 Jun 2013 4:07 PM
KY VET

Consider the source......the sequel to dumb and dumber......STUPID, and STUPIDER!...jay jay doesnt even use a form! Rusty's posts all are like this...."I like so and so horse, unless of course he doesnt win, then i would go on THAT horse over there...he MIGHT run big!...unless of course thats speed horse holds on.....i'll wait until i make breakfast, and see if the bacon is burnt...that'll mean the 2nd horse for sure......im positive.....of course, that jockey on that other horse might run"........STUPID AND STUPIDER....coming to a theater near you......of course SUBTITLES will be provided........

17 Jun 2013 4:12 PM
KY VET

buh bye rusty.........come back with some kind of meds......they are making great strides in the world of schizophrenia..........

17 Jun 2013 4:20 PM
1:08 and change

Agreed Rusty...

In no way am I trying to throw this in front of people as gospel.  It should, however, be used as an extremely valuable tool for handicapping.  

Phil does an amazing job with it and sticks to his guns.  I mean, he carried Vyjack as an upgrade throughout the triple crown series, based strictly on the numbers calling for it.  I know as a handicapper, he thought the horse should have been out of the Derby and Belmont and pointed to the Woody Stephens if he were to race at all.

Like I have stated previously, I handicap a race and then see what the flow boys suggest after.  There has been significant ROI using that method this year.

17 Jun 2013 4:21 PM
JayJay

PBP : Again, you're massaging the numbers, how many wins and how many loses ?  You can't use the ROI on your winnings only.  That's cheating (but if your users are willing to go with it, then that's on them.)

You need to take into account that your subscriber (1:08) may bet $1,000 on a losing pick and 20.00 on a winning pick.  I'm asking straight win/loss record.  Because that will give me an idea how "great" the flow is...you said before, the "flow" does not know what the users do with your picks so you can't put numbers on them to make them look like they made money.  It doesn't represent the truth.

1:08 : Who the heck cares what 3 yr old races the flow gave you ?   That's in the past, you can't keep bringing up previous winning picks.  I got some of those winners too except the difference is I'm not stupid enough to pay someone to give it to me.  I'm smarter than that.  And you need to quit with the "hate" crusade, you're one of the hateful kids on here, it's a little hypocritical of you to say something about attacks when you have posted 90% attacks than anything handicapping.   I understand that you don't handicap, but don't act like you have morals.   Anyway, did that $41 pay for your subscription ?  Let me guess, you're buying islands left and right with all your winnings right ?

The fact is, the Flow isn't what you two claim it to be, it doesn't make you any more money than KY's handicapping angle, picking broken or waking up horses or my "guessdicapping"... it's nothing more than an expensive tool.  I still don't see any of your "subscribers" except this kid who keeps popping up like a zit with nothing useful to say.   Just state what the Flow is for what it is, a tool, don't act like it's better than anything out there or anyone's handicapping.  The Flow misses more than it wins, just like any other handicapper.  There's is nothing to learn...

My June winnings :

www.facebook.com/.../media_set

I included a couple of May tickets because I mentioned to Mary Z before that I got a nice return playing the 10 horse (Magic Beam)

17 Jun 2013 4:24 PM
1:08 and change

Vet, again, killing me man...lmao.

17 Jun 2013 4:32 PM
1:08 and change

JJ:

I don't use facebook.

And believe me, you don't want to go there on comparing winning tickets.

17 Jun 2013 4:39 PM
derbygal

jay jay doesnt even use a form!KY VET 17 Jun 2013 4:12 PM.

JayJay, it seems like KY uses the form and the Beyer's a lot, yet checking back in the last 3 years of his picks for the Triple Crown Race Winners only, he is zero for nine!  

17 Jun 2013 4:43 PM
JayJay

1:08 : I really don't care what you think, you bet what the flow gives you, you've never picked a horse that the flow didn't post already so stop pretending you actually handicap.  You're nothing but a cheerleader.  I've posted all my winning tickets, you claim to hit winning tickets...enough said.  I'm still wondering how many Flow users are like you, how come you're the only one that uses the Flow that comes to blog here ?  Where's the rest of the many Flow users ? the Flow boys ?  I'm starting to think you're the only user the Flow has so PBP can't really put you in your place for having no class because he'll lose business.

derbygal : Yeah, that's why he doesn't post his picks anymore, it's always " I don't like this race" or some other lame excuse.  Then he posts race after race after race on mountaineer, delta downs, delaware, africa, argentina, chile etc, etc... and still can't pick a winner.  The guy is a useless tool.  There's really nothing that can be done for the guy, he is beyond help.

17 Jun 2013 5:25 PM
Rusty Weisner

1:08 and change,

Systematically finding overlays is the way to win in the long term, so I've often paid a respectful ear to the idea of pace/flow analysis in that regard.

I'm the kind of infrequent but fairly big spending enthusiast looking for the life-changing day at the track, though:  a different kind of bettor.  Handicapping the big races and posting the picks is like a religious observance for me.

I took a little poetic license there in saying I made an "uninterrupted" string of losing picks, by the way.  I've picked a few here and there! And I even feel like I came close to solving the Derby the past two years.

Have a good summer.  Keep away from Fairmount Park.  It sounds like a players' purgatory.  We'll all be playing shangri-la, I mean Saratoga, in a month.

17 Jun 2013 5:33 PM
1:08 and change

JJ:

Where were u when the vet and I went head to head?  More winners posted on those two cards than you have posted all year.

17 Jun 2013 5:41 PM
Rusty Weisner

KY VET,

Clue me in on which meds.

No kidding.  Last time you ridiculed me it was because I was fretting about Palace Malice wearing first-time blinkers. And, like a 12-year-old girl, you call me "ignorant".  

It's Rusty Weisner's thread.  You just live in it.  Maybe Pete will put you out of your misery one of these days.

17 Jun 2013 5:43 PM
KY VET

presq isle  race 2 #3

17 Jun 2013 5:50 PM
JayJay

1:08 : Like I said, your words are meaningless, I know that those picks were the flows picks, not yours.  It's quite obvious with how you post your picks, it's always the same as the Flows.  How can you even argue about this....you're paying for the information, why would you go against it ?  You'd feel the wrath of PBP if you go against his flow, even worse than what PBP dishes out here for people who doesn't listen to him.  Haven't you learned that yet ??  You need to be careful with what you post...you might end up getting grounded.  I understand you're starting to learn how to bet, we all have to start somewhere.

17 Jun 2013 5:58 PM
KY VET

hows that?   winner winner! 5 to 1! #3 at presq isle.......read you thought i quit posting......so, i posted the next bet on my list.....12.00   winner........you happy now?  do you know how much money i'm ahead this year? its embarrassing....you people just give me your money........

17 Jun 2013 5:59 PM
KY VET

jay jay- the mensa tic tac toe world champion.......

17 Jun 2013 6:01 PM
1:08 and change

Rusty,

You too man.  Good luck at the Spa.

17 Jun 2013 6:03 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Rusty -

Please don't tell me what horse or horses should be downgraded.  If you pause for minute and think about both Orb and Oxbow, one downgrade and one upgraded going into the Preakness,  yet both 'neutral' going into the Belmont,  perhaps you'll understand a bit better how we view horses and form cycles.

A 5th consecutive year of growth is already secured in 2013.

Good luck to all.

17 Jun 2013 6:17 PM
1:08 and change

Go get em vet!

17 Jun 2013 7:10 PM
KY VET

rusty....good luck with your job.....collecting beer cans, and soda bottles.......get a cash bundle for saratoga..........

17 Jun 2013 7:14 PM
JayJay

PBP : Where are these users ?  How come it's just you and 1:08 that keeps popping up here ?  I'm very familiar with "sign ups" to websites.  What's your turn over rate ?  How many users actually renew their initial subscriptions ?

KY :  Give it up, I've exposed time and again how dumb you are, you have nothing to offer when it comes to horse racing.  Stick to kid talk, that's pretty much the only thing you're good at.

17 Jun 2013 7:16 PM
1:08 and change

JJ:

The contest picks were my picks moron.  Anytime you want to post a card for charity I am game.

17 Jun 2013 7:25 PM
JayJay

1:08 :  If anyone's a moron, it's the one that pays to have someone give them what to bet their money on...which is exactly what you do.  I've seen you post your bets, it always matches up with what the flow that PBP posts afterwards.  I'm too smart for you, stick with cheerleading for KY, you don't have enough brain cells for handicapping.  It's okay, someday you'll realize how much money you're wasting....but then again, I don't know if you're smart enough to realize that.

17 Jun 2013 7:31 PM
1:08 and change

Let's go, meat.... $1000 to Old Friends.  I am sure Relva would appreciate it.

17 Jun 2013 7:38 PM
JayJay

KY : Here's how you do with your bets, this is after a bunch of posts with your bets and you end up with a whopping negative $600.00... yeah, you're a PRO :

emd race 8...broke in air last....but got up anyway.....won 620....total....-600

KY VET 27 May 2013 9:07 PM

Same results when you were posting picks way back, except you wouldn't post how much you were betting on those losing picks.  I have no doubt anytime you have posted your picks here, you came out negative.  How much did your future bet on NI and Flashback netted you ?  A whopping ZERO.  If you're not careful, they might tow your trailer away for failure to make your rent...then what, where would you put your imaginary horses ?

17 Jun 2013 7:45 PM
JayJay

1:08 : Like I said, I'm smarter than you.  I know for a fact, you'll have PBP working overnight picking the horses for you.  Just admit the fact you can't handicap even if your life depended on it.  It's okay, you don't have to be ashamed of it.  It's no different than how KY handicaps really.  

I don't come here to compete with people, I come here to read and learn as I have stated before.  I do call out people who claims their handicapping is better than anyone elses.  Like you, PBP and KY...

Everytime PBP posts the flows picks, when it wins, it's like the Flow is the best ... when it loses (more times than not), there's like 10 million reasons on why the horse didn't win.  I call it "the drown" ... drowning the users with information to make them forget how bad the pick was.

17 Jun 2013 8:13 PM
1:08 and change

So according to your previous statements, it shouldn't matter if the flow is involved since it's a joke system that doesn't win.  You're the joke.

17 Jun 2013 8:53 PM
JayJay

I never said it doesn't win, read again...where did I say that ??  PBP will scold you on your reading comprehension....you'll probably get a time out.

I said, the Flow isn't the best thing out there, it's no different than the crap Beyer put out there.  It's a tool that doesn't pick the winner all the time, PBP's posted picks yesterday proved it.  He posted 3 flow picks, Smiling Bob, Evolution Rocks and Verrazano.  Which of the 3 won the race ??  You want me to spend all that money for someone to give me Verrazano against that field ??  Seriously ??  For you two to claim it's the best thing ever is false advertisement.  Give it up kid...

17 Jun 2013 9:04 PM
Mary Zinke

All of this crap is funny at least. KY's horses are real. Jay Jay, I so like your small wagers for huge returns, also real, from what I can tell. That's how I "prove" my bets, too. I need to get back to doing the same. See you guys/gals for the weekend stakes. Also, I don't mind the flow. I just wish all of the info was free and sent to me directly, right before I "vote". I certainly don't like finding out why it was a waste of money to vote after the fact.  That feels awful.

17 Jun 2013 9:35 PM
KY VET

he brings up the day i lost 600? i just had 100 w on that 5 to 1 shot..........why not say i lost 6 dollars jj? it was a day i was betting 200w.....did i pick bad? no........you people think 200 a race is a ton.....but im a pro.....i win............i only had 100 on the winner i posted earlier because i cant bet as big at minor track.......poker pros bet alot too.......its just the level im at............mary....they actually think i'm lying.....come up, and ask the ticket sellers who the best is...........they will tell you.................

17 Jun 2013 9:46 PM
Mary Zinke

Ha,ha, KY.  I hope you tip the tellers. P.S. Who else but me would go through all of that stalking trouble to find some of the truth?

17 Jun 2013 10:04 PM
JayJay

Mary Zinke :   Not that I would question you but have you actually seen the horses ?

KY VET : Read again, I said it's the same thing when you use to flood the blogs with your betting posts, you never came up ahead.  That quote was just the latest in your pathetic handicapping.  Look, I understand your desperation to be recognized but you really have no idea how bad your handicapping is....but I'm still trying to keep a straight face while typing but can't any longer, that was really funny....hahahahaha.. ASK THE TELLER!!! hahahaha I'M THE BEST!!! hahahahaha... i seriously can't stop laughing at that...

17 Jun 2013 10:04 PM
Mary Zinke

Yes. Horse #1, Jay Jay.  I would love to own him.

17 Jun 2013 10:10 PM
Mike Relva

1:08 and change

Thanks and yes I would appreciate that.

17 Jun 2013 10:47 PM
JayJay

Who's the 1 horse ?

17 Jun 2013 11:35 PM
Mary Zinke

I will never betray the sacred oath.

18 Jun 2013 12:42 AM
JayJay

Mary Zinke : I highly doubt KY would be offended if you tell the blog who the horse is.  He's been itching to tell everyone.  In fact, he wants to go over where he is, find his favorite ticket teller and ask the teller who the best is hahahaha... sorry, still can't stop laughing about it.

He would have to tell me who he is, and which track...unless he goes out there in the real world and tell everyone his name is KY VET (with capital letters) , come to think of it... that's quite possible...LOL

18 Jun 2013 1:34 AM
Mary Zinke

Maybe he only wanted someone who wouldn't be mean to him to find out. I really don't know the reason for the secrecy, but it's not my secret to give out.

18 Jun 2013 2:41 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Good luck Animal Kingdom

18 Jun 2013 9:26 AM
derbygal

Queen Anne was just won by Declaration of War.

18 Jun 2013 9:39 AM
Plod Boy Phil

That was disappointing - he had nothing today.

18 Jun 2013 9:40 AM
JayJay

Mary Zinke : No worries, was not really expecting you to tell the blog.  It's funny how he's scared of the mean ones..lol.

18 Jun 2013 11:50 AM
Coldfacts

I have seen a lot of posts regarding wagering. I rarely make pre race wagering posts as it my policy to view the animal I have selected to win in the post parade before I wager my hard earn cash.

The images reflected by horses can tell a lot about their likely performances.

I do not have a lot to contribute regarding wagering as there appears to be experts a plenty on this blog.

One thing I can advise is for gamblers to be decisive and confident with their selection/s as indecision can be devastating.

In the last race at Hollywood  Park on Saturday I selected #9 to win. The field was so poor that I hit the all button in a boxed exacta. I then decided to wager the #9 with all for the tri. It's a bet I make regularly in tough fields.

I change my mind only to experience the harrow and watching #9 wining handily at 11-1 with 65-1 and 68-1 shots occupying the place and show slots.

One would think that a $1 exacta worth $732 would make everyone happy. However, a $29K tri missed due to indecision leaves a bad feeling in the gut.

18 Jun 2013 8:14 PM
Mike Relva

Phil

I couldn't believe it.

18 Jun 2013 11:25 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Mike -

He seemed unusual anxious in the post parade and warm-up to me - behavior he carried into the race.  

Perhaps one race too many.

On to his new life.

19 Jun 2013 12:16 AM
KY VET

box a 11-1 to all to all?.........the mentally ill get stupider..............i mean really? i'm not making this stuff up.......it's a scary mental health issue........

19 Jun 2013 12:28 AM
KY VET

No one mentioning KOBE'S BACK? 2yr old wins stks at hol this weekend? did you see that? anyone? anyone?

19 Jun 2013 12:36 AM
Plod Boy Phil

VET-

I think he was making the tri key 'all/all'.  It was essentially a $90 win bet in a typically bad bottom level maiden claimer - the type of race that often includes flawed favorites.

I think you're off base criticizing him on this strategy, as I know many who utilize it as well.

19 Jun 2013 12:43 AM
Mary Zinke

Yes KY, saw it "with" another Dos Equis, meaning online. Should I be more excited about that debut?  Okay. I'll keep checking on the expensive baby. idk, time wasn't that impressive, but then that's not always everything. I know he got off to a slow start. Apparently I was one of the few who hadn't heard the hype on the Sadler firster. Sorry, I missed a bunch of years of racing between 1980 and 1998, but I don't know the damsire.

19 Jun 2013 1:50 AM
KY VET

its a moronic strategy.......anyone have common sense in here? anyone? anyone?

19 Jun 2013 4:26 PM
Mary Zinke

Yes, KY. He's running against Porfido at Canturbury on the 22nd, race 6.  I think it's going to be the 6 over the 4, but I like them both.  The other Common Sense got away, so I turned him into a ceramic Siamese cat, and he sits on my kitchen shelf.

19 Jun 2013 5:03 PM
Mary Zinke

Yes, I get that you mean the BHP wager by Cold Facts.   I can't judge anyone's wagering strategy.

19 Jun 2013 5:26 PM
Mike Relva

Phil

Good news for Itsmyluckyday considering.

We don't always agree,but I respect many of your posts.

19 Jun 2013 6:12 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Glad to hear it Mike -

Regards

20 Jun 2013 12:49 AM
Mary Zinke

Phil, Will you be hosting a new blog soon?  Colonial Turf Cup: Air Support. 6,1,2,3.

20 Jun 2013 1:07 AM
Mary Zinke

All Along: 5,2,3,7.

20 Jun 2013 1:30 AM
Coldfacts

Plod Boy Phil,

You are correct regarding the race and the wagering concept.

The race was indeed a bottom level claimer with an extremely poor field. The 2nd and 3rd place finishers were 65-1 and 68-1. I suspected there would have been some bombs in the frame but based on the PPs of the starters it was impossible to determine who those would have been.

It was an ideal race for the all button.I regularly hit the all button in poor fields if I think I have identified the likely winner.

In the case on Saturday my key horse was making its second start and the declaration of an apprentice lower its handicap by 7lbs. He has previously finished 5L behind the race favorite on debut and now had a major handicap advantage and added experience.

It appears that those whose heads serve only to separate their ears do not have the capacity to understand this wagering concept and when it is applicable.

As usual empty barrels make the most noise.

20 Jun 2013 8:58 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Coldfacts -

I believe that field size and the chaos factor of cheaper horses combined with a negative opinion of at least one of the top two choices is important in the strategy.  Perhaps the most important thing, in my not so humble opinion, is that the odds of the key horse are substantial,  thus building in some immediate value provided the first two conditions are met. If one's methodology consistently points to horses of the 4-1 and under variety,  this betting strategy may indeed be unwise.

20 Jun 2013 6:25 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Credit Martin Garcia for a professional ride aboard Meydan Magic in the last at Hollywood.

20 Jun 2013 7:48 PM
Kevin

Longshot play for friday at Churchill.  All too Impressive in the 6th.  15-1 ML.  

20 Jun 2013 8:20 PM
Coldfacts

How can someone with a functional brain classify as stupid, an individual that made a $1 boxed wager that returned $732?

How often does a punter combine an 11-1 shot with a 65-1 shot?

How does securing a significant return on a wager makes one stupid?

It does not take a Rocket Scientist to determine that a significant return on a investment does not equate to stupidity.

I remain amazed that learned contributors continue to have exchanges with one so supremely ignorant.

21 Jun 2013 7:29 AM
KY VET

hey genius.......classify or classified.......? embarrassing....if you're gonna diss someone, get it right!

21 Jun 2013 7:15 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Mary Z -

I have nothing to offer on the Colonial Turf Cup.

21 Jun 2013 8:37 PM
Kevin

I'll take a distant 2d at 17-1 .

21 Jun 2013 8:59 PM
Mary Zinke

If you think about that race or the f&m turf race at Colonial Downs, I'll check back here in the morning, Phil, but the kids took all my spending loot this week anyway.  So, good time to practice, with nothing risked. Maybe I'll hit the BHP P6, in theory.

22 Jun 2013 12:39 AM
JayJay

KY VET : You're a classified stupid, certifiably crazy and hopelessly depressed individual.  How's that ?  You should also stop with spelling and grammar checking, you're one of the worst around here.

22 Jun 2013 2:21 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Saturday Arlington

R11) 6 Chas the Man - 4yo turns back to 7f for his synthetics debut following a strong 'Quick to Zip' move into an Extreme race for Closers.

22 Jun 2013 9:45 AM
JayJay

Belmont R5 :

$2 DD :  7 with 6

$1 GS :  7 with 6 with 5, 9 with 2, 3

22 Jun 2013 3:07 PM
Plod Boy Phil

That was just plain silly.

22 Jun 2013 7:20 PM
Kevin

Phil, good pick on the 6 race 11 at Arlington.  

22 Jun 2013 8:02 PM
Kevin

Check out NO Curfew Race 8 Churchill on sunday.

22 Jun 2013 8:05 PM
Little Bill

Nice one Phil! Missed playing it, I was distracted waiting for payouts for the Turf Cup.

22 Jun 2013 8:07 PM
Mary

I'm not stupid, so to change the subject completely, the best 2 year old and 3 year old last year and the year before was Union Rags; so unbelievably underrated.  The colt's first crop will come into everyone's realm of reality next year; saving my money to buy his first filly.

22 Jun 2013 8:23 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Thanks guys.

Kevin - modest interest in the 6 in the CD 8th tomorrow

Fugue - only one reason to wait for payouts....

22 Jun 2013 8:35 PM
Little Bill

All with 2 ex.

22 Jun 2013 9:09 PM
Plod Boy Phil

I thought Chas was the Man today....turns out it was Fugue.

Well done.

22 Jun 2013 9:25 PM
KY VET

Union rags....best horse ever that never ran a beyer over 100?.......maybe best 2 yr old that year.....but def. not the best 3 yr old............but he did win the new westminster dog show.......at least he's got that going for him.....

22 Jun 2013 9:32 PM
Mary Zinke

Wow, I had a fun day with the BHP card; very glad I had nothing on those Colonial Downs' picks.  The Zinke part is easily understandable now, right? :0

22 Jun 2013 9:38 PM
Little Bill

Phil, maybe the "Lucky man". I had the four in my boxes but never once considered it for the win. The boxes hit also.

22 Jun 2013 10:05 PM
KY VET

dreaming of julia peaked..........

22 Jun 2013 10:11 PM
KY VET

gave the break-up speech to horse #2.......i told him, it just wasnt working out.......that it wasn't him, it was me............fed him his last carrot..............its off to the retirement farm......................life goes on............

22 Jun 2013 10:17 PM
Little Bill

I'd give the nod to Chas. My horse ran 2nd at 5-1.

22 Jun 2013 10:31 PM
Coldfacts

Plod Boy Phil,

I made another of my supposedly stupid wagers in the 9th at Belmont on Saturday.

The #11 horse captured my fancy. I keyed him with all for a $1 Tri. He won at 25-1 and the Tri paid $7,500 for $2.

I wish every stupid wager for $90 returns a profit of $3,660.

Good luck convincing the Kentucky Klown that such wagers are not stupid.

22 Jun 2013 11:30 PM
KY VET

7 trainers!..........14 unicorns!!!.........the jamacian woke up.....in a pool of doritos...............

23 Jun 2013 12:11 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Sunday Calder

R8) 3 Starship Sultry - recorded an impressive 'vs Plod Win' last out when closing through an Extreme Race for Speed. Sharp 4yo goes for three straight.

23 Jun 2013 10:37 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Calder underwater - Starship Sultry scratched. Horse bettors may want to add her to their stables,  or not.

Churchill R5) 7 Pistolera - exits the wrong side of an Extreme Race for Speed.  Note that I posted the race would produce multiple winners next out,  with the winner Anusara not being one of them. Anusara was outrun yesterday as a grossly underplayed downgrade.

23 Jun 2013 1:15 PM
Plod Boy Phil

underlayed,  not underplayed.  If she was underplayed,  she be an overlay....

23 Jun 2013 1:27 PM
Little Bill

CD 5, Had a spot open after the scratch so the seven input was timely. I'll box it up with the 2,4,5 and key the 4.

23 Jun 2013 2:24 PM
JayJay

Paging Pete Denk, please report to the Blog office...

23 Jun 2013 8:57 PM
Coldfacts

"How can someone with a functional brain classify as stupid, an individual that made a $1 boxed wager that returned $732?"

The above is clearly a question posed in the present tense.  The verb classify is therefore correctly used to denote the action of the contributor.

If the question was posed in the past tense it would read as follows:

Why was a wager that returned $732 for $1, classified as stupid?

You will note ‘Was’ the past tense of ‘Is’ and ‘Returned’ the past tense of ‘Return’ were used in the question. This is an example where the adjective ‘Classified’ as opposed to the verb ‘Classify’ would be applicable.

Even one with a dysfunctional brain should be able to comprehend the simple clarification above.

Dysfunctional -Deviating from the norms of social behavior in a way regarded as bad.

A truly appropriate description!

24 Jun 2013 9:38 AM
1:08 and change

"We are ~48 hours out from the Belmont".... More like 48 days past.  Lol, JJ

24 Jun 2013 10:00 AM
1:08 and change

Coldfacts,

Thanks for the grammar lesson.  Still waiting for you to get blasted for "post-race" winning claims.

24 Jun 2013 10:03 AM
Cathy in Washington

Hi Pete

Stopshoppingdebbie notched her second stakes win at Emerald Downs. Stretching out to 1 mile and around 2 turns was a very impressive winner.

Ran nearly a second faster than the 3 year old colts stakes winner on same card.

24 Jun 2013 2:04 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Tuesday Gulfstream

R6) 8 Father Lucey - exits back to back upgraded efforts in Speed favoring races,  the latest of which was giving 'Extreme' status by us.  For those that like this sort of thing, the horse is 1-24 at Calder and 2-5 at GP,  including an impressive 'neutral' win at this 8f trip in March.

24 Jun 2013 9:38 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Wednesday Belmont

R9) 5 Double O One - debuted in a turf route with a pace setting effort in a very Closer favoring Flow.  Handicappers will note that the top three finishers were the top three betting choices, and each was far back early. Double O had every reason to finish up the track but ran on gamely to the wire. He returned on just four days rest with a pace pressing effort going 8.5 on the turf in a modest closers Flow before weakening badly. He turns back to 6f with three weeks rest.

25 Jun 2013 7:47 PM
Plod Boy Phil

The only thing better than a winner is a scratch.

26 Jun 2013 4:22 PM
Plod Boy Phil

or, the only thing better than a scratch is a winner.

26 Jun 2013 4:36 PM
KY VET

random race.......evd race #8 kinda think the #6 high hopes e day will fire tonight.........wp

26 Jun 2013 9:47 PM
KY VET

oh well.....2nd at 7/2.........ran good.........pretty much ran to form...fav wins.....not bad exacta...

26 Jun 2013 9:53 PM
KY VET

random race 2....woodbine race 8....like both #1 entry horses....geshias dance/thesignoftheangel......wp.....im 10 dollars ahead.....100wp

26 Jun 2013 10:20 PM
KY VET

damn....dont see that too often....opened at 9 to 1....posted at 3 to 1....off even money.....sheesh.......won easy 1a by 5..1 got 3rd...........+140 tonight.......pays for dinner.....

26 Jun 2013 10:32 PM
Forbidden Apple

Belmont Park June 27 Race 5:

#3 Hardest Core makes it back to the winners circle again today. This improving colt should sit a good trip behind Stormy Len. Won last out at the same distance of 1 1/4 miles, he'll be flying late. An exacta w/ Stormy Len and a win bet are in order. I'm also playing a double w/ #3 Dynamized, this filly will be charging late.

27 Jun 2013 12:34 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Thursday Belmont

R5) 3 Hardest Core - recorded a 'neutral win' as a bold upgrade for us last out.  By 'rule', he carries his grade into this Alw1x test.  

27 Jun 2013 12:45 PM
Plod Boy Phil

FA -

Too funny.

I saw that there was a post up but not yet visible....had a feeling it was you and this horse.

Good luck.

27 Jun 2013 12:50 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Forbidden -

I'll make my DD to the 1 Daddy's Gold who set the pressured pace of closer's Flow last out.

27 Jun 2013 12:55 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Friday Churchill

R8) 6 Duke of Del Ray - recorded a 'neutral or better win' as an upgrade last out.  Claimed, steps up and goes two turns today in a race with plenty of speed signed on.

28 Jun 2013 11:24 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Friday Hollywood

R4) 6 Follini - impressed with a 'vs Zip Win' to break his maiden two back.  He went w-w that day despite setting the pace of a very Closer favoring Flow.  With seven weeks and a neutral race since the win, he returns to the turf sprint looking to wire this Alw1x field.

28 Jun 2013 11:29 AM
JayJay

Pete : Any chance for a new blog?  Are you still managing this blog site ?

28 Jun 2013 1:29 PM
Mary Zinke

GL Saturday, Dos Equis.  Don't worry too much about the 3.

Hi, Jay Jay. I haven't been posting much here. If there's a new blog, maybe I will.  You know I like Jeranimo.

28 Jun 2013 3:42 PM
-Keelerman

With Wise Dan set to carry 128 pounds in tomorrow's Firecracker Handicap, I thought I'd pose a question for any and all to answer: How much importance do you place on weight as a handicapping factor?

Personally, I've never worried too much about weight -- there are many other handicapping factors that are, in my opinion, more meaningful. The only time I really consider it is in cases like the Firecracker, where a horse is being asked to concede ten or more pounds to his/her opponents. That starts to be quite a spread.

What makes things more confusing are cases like last year's Personal Ensign Handicap at Saratoga, where Royal Delta was upset by Love and Pride, to whom Royal Delta was conceding ten pounds. Given that Royal Delta lost by just a half-length, it seems logical that the ten pounds could have made the difference -- but I think it's more likely that Royal Delta simply had an off day. After all, she emerged from that defeat to win the Beldame by almost ten lengths over It's Tricky, who had finished just one length behind Royal Delta in the Personal Ensign.

So how much emphasis do you place on weight when handicapping races? I'm curious!

28 Jun 2013 7:26 PM
Little Bill

I agree with you Keelerman. I was taught moons ago not to pay much attn. to weight. I might double take if there's an excessive spread. I think it meant more back in the day when they really used to handicap a horse with it. Even then you can find  horses that won giving huge amounts.

28 Jun 2013 8:23 PM
Mary Zinke

Here is Mike Smith talking about the ride in the Personal Ensign: www.youtube.com/watch

So, I don't know if the weight she carried had to do with why she lost that race.

About weight and how it makes a difference, very debatable, as in forever, if you mean just a few pounds. Sometimes I don't even look at the weights. Haven't seen any really unreasonable that I can think of, not in many years.

But notice how that riderless female finished ahead of the pack in something like 1:35+ the other day, race 6 at Belmont, when she usually runs 1:38+ for 1m T.  Downtown Hottie.

Hey, if I'm way off on all  of that, at least the corrections might lien things up.

28 Jun 2013 9:02 PM
Mary Zinke

Of course that's at least a 110 weight difference for Downtown Hottie. Also my theory as to one of the reasons why Fort Larned ran so badly after his riderless run.

28 Jun 2013 9:05 PM
Mary Zinke

*liven

28 Jun 2013 10:04 PM
Little Bill

I like the morning line on Morning Line tomorrow.

28 Jun 2013 10:23 PM
KY VET

Thanks mary.....2 horses that might have been tough both srcatched.....dream scenerio......they trying to make it easy? The big horse looks real tough..........cant be this easy.....

28 Jun 2013 11:31 PM
JayJay

Keelerman : I don't handicap weight differences for races 8.5F or shorter.  And since there's really not much 9F and longer races out there, I really haven't done much handicapping based on weight differences.  I just don't think it makes that much difference.  I don't think the horse would notice they're carrying 5 or more lbs than last time.  As for conceding 10 or more lbs to an opponent, there's a reason why.  Would I play that horse, not necessarily, not unless the horse has given some hint in the past that they can run.  I won't play the horse just because they're getting a 10 lb break.

Good luck tomorrow!  Good to see your around here... maybe Pete can hand off some blog time to you since he's probably busy with the sales thingamajig.  Wouldn't mind you doing one or two topics.

29 Jun 2013 2:04 AM
JayJay

Mary Zinke : Hey you, haven't looked at the line up for tomorrow, if he's running tomorrow I'll play him just because you said so.  Hope you had a great time at Belmont btw.

29 Jun 2013 2:07 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Keelerman -

Nicely done.

Weight is not something I consider in making wagering decisions,  though it's well documented that my approach is different than most in terms of attempting to predict the future (or not).

I'll offer the following:

- weight matters for speed horses breaking from the gate. Added dead weight (not the jock) from one race to the next can impact gate speed.  

- weight matters as a function of basic physics:  if two horses use the same amount of energy and distribute it the same during a race, the advantage goes to the one carrying less.

- weight changes between common foes in back to back races logically have some impact,  but is difficult to quantify (a must for me) since each race means something to different to every horse with the natural ebb and Flow of form cycles.

Regards.

29 Jun 2013 9:42 AM
JayJay

So yeah, like I said, weight differences doesn't really mean much when I handicap.

29 Jun 2013 10:47 AM
Kevin

Like Film Making in the 6th at Churchill if it stays on the turf; not sure of the weather yet.  

Nothing else stands out for the day.  

29 Jun 2013 11:11 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Kevin-

You probably know better,  but forecast calls for plenty of storm activity in Louisville tonight.

Delilahjane is schedule to make her turf debut tonight in the finale.  Recall she exits a wide run behind an Extreme Race for Speed - rates bold upgrade having entered that race off an upgrade.

29 Jun 2013 11:24 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Saturday Arlington

R9) 2 Tsunami Salli - upgrade the chasing effort two back behind the run-away winner of a Speed favoring race. The turf run in latest looks of a prep.  Drops, turns back and rolls by them all today.

29 Jun 2013 11:51 AM
Forbidden Apple

I always pay attention when a horse is dropping 5 or more pounds. Mostly I don't pay attention to the assigned weights or morning lines. A serious horse like Wise Dan could win with 130 pounds or more today.

Does anyone give Za Approval a chance later today in the Shoemaker mile?

29 Jun 2013 12:19 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Saturday Arlington

R9) 2 Tsunami Salli - two back chased the run-away wire to wire winner of a very Speed favoring Flow.  The latest,  a turf route facing much better, screams of a prep.  Drops, turns back, and catches a positive Flow today to set up her big finish.

29 Jun 2013 12:28 PM
Forbidden Apple

Saturday Belmont: New York Stakes

I like Tannery to come running late and win right back. Looks like an improving horse to me, win bet.

Saturday Hollywood: Triple Bend

I'm siding with Jimmy Creed to come back running, win bet at 2-1 or more.

29 Jun 2013 12:42 PM
Plod Boy Phil

FA -

I make the NY Stakes a 3/8 box.

Good luck.

29 Jun 2013 1:01 PM
Mary Zinke

Yes, FA, I do. Jeranimo, Za Approval, Obviously.

About the Triple Bend, I'd be happy for Comma To The Top and his fans, but I wonder about Morning Line. He might surprise in another "cameo" appearance.

Longer shot Baby J in the Victory Ride.

29 Jun 2013 1:43 PM
-Keelerman

Thanks to all for your thoughts! Plod Boy Phil, your point about weight mattering for speed horses breaking from the gate is fascinating. I'd never heard of that before. And Mary Zinke, that's a good point about Downtown Hottie. JayJay, I'd love to guest blog again sometime! The posts are a lot of fun to write, and I really enjoy doing them.

Now -- while on the topic of weight, I thought it would be fitting to mention good old Roseben, a magnificent sprinter from more than a century ago who was -- in my opinion -- the best weight carrier in the history of the sport. His achievements are mind-boggling; they defied the parameters that govern the art of handicap racing. Roseben ran 111 times from 1903 to 1909, winning fifty-two races and finishing in the top three an incredible eighty-nine times. One of his first great weight-carrying feats was achieved in May 1905, when he carried 140 pounds to an "easing up" victory in a seven-furlong handicap at Belmont. He was conceding the runner-up 23 pounds. For most horses, 23 pounds would be a staggering handicap, but that just wasn't true for Roseben. When at his best, 23 pounds was a walk in the park.

Now flash forward a few months to the autumn of 1905, when Roseben compiled what is, quite simply, an unprecedented streak of six consecutive wins in the span of one month. They were:

* September 15th: A six-furlong handicap at Gravesend Park, which he won by five lengths while carrying 132 pounds. The runner-up was carrying 122. If the fractional times are accurate (and to be perfectly honest, I'm not sure they possibly can be), he ran the last eighth of a mile in :09 2/5 seconds.

* September 18th: Another six-furlong handicap at Gravesend, which he won by 1 1/2 lengths while carrying 137 pounds. The runner-up was carrying 104.

* October 4th: The six-furlong Bronx Highweight Handicap at Belomont Park, which yielded a five-length triumph under 140 pounds -- while conceding the runner-up fifty pounds! The chart records that Roseben was "never fully extended."

* October 6th: The six-furlong Manhattan Handicap at Belmont. Just two days after winning the Bronx Highweight, Roseben toted an incredible 147 pounds to a five-length victory over Aeronaut, to whom he was conceding forty-two pounds. Once again, Roseben was "never extended."

* October 10th: A seven-furlong allowance race at Belmont. Carrying a comparatively feathery 126 pounds, Roseben won by an eased-up ten lengths. The runner-up carried 107.

* October 13th: A six-furlong allowance race at Belmont. For his fourth race in ten days, Roseben carried 130 pounds to a twenty-length romp while conceding the runner-up fifteen pounds.

As incredible as this streak was, his two most defining races were still well in the future. The first came on October 16th, 1906, when Roseben contested a seven-furlong allowance race at Belmont Park. Carrying 126 pounds, and facing just one opponent -- who carried 85 pounds -- Roseben romped by twenty lengths at odds of 1-100, establishing an American record of 1:22 flat that would last for forty-one years. The second came on July 17th, 1907, when Roseben won a six-furlong handicap race at Brighton Beach. Carrying 147 pounds, he was "never extended" to win by two lengths over Smoker, to whom he was conceding -- and this is not a typo -- sixty pounds.

Roseben continued to carry and concede great weight until 1909, when at the age of eight he bowed a tendon and was retired. For whatever reason, Roamer rarely gets mentioned when talk turns to the great weight carriers of the past. But there's no doubt in my mind that he deserves recognition as one of the most amazing horses to ever grace our sport.

-Keelerman

29 Jun 2013 2:53 PM
Forbidden Apple

Plod, Don't forget about Celebrated Talent, he will stretch out and gets lasix next out. He had a few excuses last race, he breaks hid maiden next. I believe Alpha, Carnival Court, and Make Your Move are all running next week. All are training very well, Alpha breezed today, he is razor sharp. He breezed in company with Valid the past two weeks on the Oklahoma training track. Any idea of who he might face in the Suburban?

29 Jun 2013 3:07 PM
-Keelerman

Forbidden Apple;

The Suburban Handicap is expected to have a rather small field, consisting of Alpha, Flat Out, Easter Gift, Last Gunfighter, and Percussion. Of course, others may throw their names in the ring before next Saturday. It should be a good race!

29 Jun 2013 3:38 PM
Little Bill

Belmont 8) 6w1347

29 Jun 2013 3:54 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Apple -

I'll have to take a pass on Celebrated Talent until I see more.  Closers had the best of it on the main that day - enough for us to take notice. Perhaps the Lasix and added ground does the trick.

Good luck.

29 Jun 2013 4:23 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Fugue -

Win money I hope on that crazy overlay.

Have to thank you as I was DD live on a 1x2 and threw yours in a small exb saver w/ the two I had going (3,8).

29 Jun 2013 4:51 PM
Kevin

Phil, I saw Delilahjane is running today.  Had planned on betting until I saw it was turf debut. Good odds though.  

29 Jun 2013 4:58 PM
Little Bill

Had the ex. no win.

29 Jun 2013 5:07 PM
Little Bill

Your welcome Phil, glad you used her.

29 Jun 2013 5:23 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Kevin -

I can't imagine letting a thing like surface prevent me from betting a horse I deem much better than the PPs look.  For what it's worth,  her 2nd dam was a daughter of Slew City Slew - turf no problem.

29 Jun 2013 5:25 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Did you wheel her to get that nice ex ?

29 Jun 2013 5:25 PM
Mary Zinke

"My" Jeranimo only got a little help from Wilkinson in as much of an attempt to pressure as he could offer, but no way was he catching that beautiful speed today, nor was anyone else. My girl, Lady of Shamrock placed in a very nice field. But, vindication!  Baby J won!  Yeah, and at nice odds. I hope someone cashed in on that.

29 Jun 2013 5:35 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Mary Z -

Blew right past your Baby J pick.  Impressive,  that.

29 Jun 2013 5:54 PM
Mary Zinke

With Katie out,Phil, Baby J looked to be the speed. I liked her even before the scratches, really, but easy pick after. I haven't seen the replay yet, though. nyra should do nyracing, like calracing, meaning live.

29 Jun 2013 5:59 PM
Little Bill

Phil, on the wheel, yes. I usually go up and down with one in an ex. Price and field matter. Sometimes it works out I would have made more money with a WP bet. Sometimes you hit a really fat ex. I figure it all evens out. I should play both but that might take away from my tri, super bets. Those are the ones I want to hit.

29 Jun 2013 6:04 PM
Mary Zinke

Came back on to win. I'm tellin' ya, those NY-running girls are tough.

29 Jun 2013 6:12 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Imagine visiting this Blog for the first time today:

Starformer $36.40

Baby J $23.00

Tsunami Salli $19.60 (runt)

29 Jun 2013 6:30 PM
Mary Zinke

Nice win in BHP r. 7 for The Big Guy's Sweet Lulu.

29 Jun 2013 7:29 PM
Little Bill

PM 6) 2 3 6 7. 7 with many.

29 Jun 2013 9:36 PM
Kevin

I'm actually happy with Film Making's run after a slow start and going wide.  A definite play back for me at better odds.  

29 Jun 2013 10:01 PM
Plod Boy Phil

CD 11th - Late scratch Delilahjane

Ellis Park ?

29 Jun 2013 11:10 PM
KY VET

the big horse flopped as big fav..........headscratcher.......................love this game!

29 Jun 2013 11:45 PM
Mary Zinke

Rolled track. Maniac pace setter from crap city. Not his fault. P.S. I know it doesn't pay, but he likes a few weeks of works.

30 Jun 2013 1:25 AM
KY VET

arlington race 1 #3

30 Jun 2013 2:03 PM
KY VET

arl....3rd place.....bel race 3 #8 sarahs wild girl

30 Jun 2013 2:07 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Sunday Hollywood

R4) 5 Magnum Force - recorded a 'Neutral or Better Win' last out following an upgraded closing run on a track that was severely Biased to speed.  

30 Jun 2013 2:14 PM
KY VET

cd race 4 #8 glamour and glory

30 Jun 2013 2:18 PM
KY VET

-300...1st prime bet of day calder race 5 #3 perfect berry

30 Jun 2013 2:43 PM
KY VET

prime bet winner 4.40....had more on it but lets just say the usual 200w..........-60

30 Jun 2013 3:10 PM
KY VET

mth race 6.....love the #1 right right.....prime bet win and place also....200wp

30 Jun 2013 3:17 PM
KY VET

bel..race 6 #5 brianna nicole

30 Jun 2013 3:30 PM
KY VET

prime bet 3 bel race 7 #3 image of noon

30 Jun 2013 3:53 PM
Mary Zinke

wth? Time to turn this around, KY.  GL.

30 Jun 2013 4:43 PM
KY VET

best bet of day....relax people....those were just 5 races..............emd 300w200p #4 edge forward

30 Jun 2013 8:44 PM
Coldfacts

I suggest that exotic wager be avoided at Woodbine.

I keyed a 7-1 shot with all for a Tri in one of the late races at Woodbine.

My key horse who left post #11 won handily and was followed by 17-1 and a 10-1 shots. Both the first and second favorites were  out of the Tri.

The tri paid $600 plus for $1. While the wager cost <$100, it is inconceivable that horses with odds of 7-1,17-1 and 10-1 returned only $1,200 plus for a $2 wager.

Ther3e was 110,000 wagered on trifectors I the race.

I can only conclude that a big time gambler knew the #11 was a sure thing and played him with the field several times. The tote was unlikely to be wrong.

The eventual payout on the tri suggest an investigations is warranted.

Itis inconceivable that horses with odds of 7-1,17-1 and 10-1 returned only $1,200 plus for a $2 wager.

30 Jun 2013 11:03 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Monday Gulfstream

R7) 5 Joanie's Image - impressed with a 'vs Plod Win' last out in running through Speed favoring Flow. Steps up today and catches a field full of early speed.

01 Jul 2013 6:47 AM
Mike Relva

Congrats to Wise Dan. Grace under pressure.

01 Jul 2013 12:11 PM
Mike Relva

Phil

Have a Great Holiday.

01 Jul 2013 12:12 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Mike -

As well, though to be honest, I didn't know it was a holiday, except in Canada. Either way, thanks.

01 Jul 2013 5:18 PM
Mike Relva

Phil    

Get what you're saying,but I always the 4th a holiday.

02 Jul 2013 2:24 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Doh !

Of course.

02 Jul 2013 6:48 AM
Mike Relva

Phil

Think earlier that went over my head lol. I've been way too tired over the past week.

02 Jul 2013 12:33 PM
Forbidden Apple

I'm sorry, but I completely disagree with Tom Durkin when he called Close Hatches victory in the Mother Goose a huge upset. Dreaming of Julia had one big win at Gulfstream with an inflated beyer number. What has she ever done do deserve being a 1/2 favorite? She's just another hype horse from the pletcher barn. She peaked at Gulfstream, maybe she will wake up next time.

Belmont July 4:

Race 2- #7 Patent has several impressive works and royal bloodlines. This speedy little horse will come out running, catch me if you can.

03 Jul 2013 10:54 PM
Forbidden Apple

Mike Relva,

I still do not get why my past comments bothered you. Anyway, I did answer your question previously about running while being hurt. I used to run between 45 and 50 miles per week, my coach made me train through painful shin splints. Most horses train through nagging injuries, this is not new news to anyone. They get constant vet work and keep on going. A sound horse that receives very little or no vet work is hard to come by.

03 Jul 2013 11:01 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Thursday Arlington

R4) 3 Shezadoozie - was too close to the early pace of a very Closer favoring Flow last out at 8.5f on the turf.  Turns back to a 6.5f sprint and returns to the main track where she performed well three back closing in a neutral race after a stumbling start. Finishes best from off the pace.

Happy 4th.

04 Jul 2013 6:11 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Shezadoozie went to the lead....race won by a deep closer.  

04 Jul 2013 6:06 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Friday Arlington

R7) 8 Cookie - debuted chasing the wire to wire winner of an Extreme Race for Speed.  Last out vs MSW,  she was very wide on a main track the was severely speed biased. Tries turf today.

05 Jul 2013 2:38 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Nobody playing horses this week ?

05 Jul 2013 4:20 PM
Kevin

Phil, I'm dabbling.  

Had the #4 in the 8th at Belmont on Friday.  7-1 winner.  

But betting small.  

Wonder why Pete hasn't started a new blog stream.  

05 Jul 2013 6:56 PM
Kevin

Watch for Smiling Bog in the 10th at Belmont on Saturday.  

05 Jul 2013 8:59 PM
Little Bill

Calder,Sat.

05 Jul 2013 9:17 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Kevin -

The Bel 84 was a RF upgrade winner. The other 'grade' in the race ran 3rd.

Smiling Bob is on the list.

Cookie adds a third straight upgrade to her resume following that impossible trip today on the turf.

05 Jul 2013 10:48 PM
jean thomas

kevin                              he was abducted by aliens        

06 Jul 2013 4:51 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Fugue -

Here's one I like at Calder:

R10) 9 Sweet Cassiopeia - had none chance in last behind the w-w winner of an Extreme Race for Speed. She's done some good things from our perspective this year.

Good luck today.

06 Jul 2013 4:55 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Saturday Monmouth

R7) 7 Mr. Espresso - three straight upgraded race, including an impressive finish three back behind the w-w winner of an Extreme race for Speed.

06 Jul 2013 5:26 AM
Little Bill

Thanks Phil. She's been on my watch list since the Nov. CD race. Might get price today.

Good luck to all.

06 Jul 2013 1:12 PM
-Keelerman

For those who would like to witness history being made, I thought I would mention that jockey Russell Baze might reach the 12,000 wins mark at Pleasanton this afternoon. He enters the day with 11,995 victories, and has six mounts on the card. Perhaps he won't get there today, but tomorrow is a very real possibility. I'll be watching!

06 Jul 2013 1:56 PM
JayJay

Belmont R10 :  $2DD  10 with 3,5,6,8,12.  I think this horse will fire fresh against this field...at least I hope so.  Nice 5-1 price.

06 Jul 2013 5:45 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Sunday Calder

R6) 3 Foxy Affair - 'Neutral or Better Winner' following an upgraded run behind an Extreme Race for Speed.

Sunday Ellis

R8) 8 Gambling Don - vs back to back Speed favoring Flows,  including an Extreme for Speed last out. Turns back to 7f.

Sunday Hollywood

R2) 2 Sultry Season - had none chance behind the up close winner of an Extreme Race for Speed at 8.5f.  Turns back to 6.5f today.

07 Jul 2013 7:14 AM
Kevin

Good luck Phil.

I"m only playing Woodbine today.  Like the big fields.  On wrong side of two photos so far, but the day is young.

Big bet of the day is Dynamic Sky in the Queen's Plate.  Hoping for 4-1.  Only horse that I think wants anything to do with 1 1/4.  

07 Jul 2013 2:46 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Kevin-

I was surprised and disappointed that Woodbine presented nothing that caught my eye - it usually offers me a few live upgrades.

Good luck.

07 Jul 2013 3:02 PM
koufax

Thanks Phil for Sultry Season in HW 2nd nice pick it saved my day.

07 Jul 2013 5:39 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Koufax -

You are welcome. She got Flow today.

07 Jul 2013 6:47 PM
Kevin

Phil, Simon Gray on TVG was all over the #2 in the 2d also.  Surprised the odds were so high.  

My long weekend, broke exactly even.

07 Jul 2013 7:33 PM
Rusty Weisner

Why would anyone want a new thread?  This one is lucky.  Everyone (except the blog host) is picking winners.

09 Jul 2013 10:53 AM
-Keelerman

Would anyone like to talk two-year-olds? With the Saratoga and Del Mar meets coming up, juvenile racing will start really heating up soon.

One colt that has caught my eye already this year is Ride On Curlin, a son of (you guessed it -- Curlin) that overcame a slow start to finish second in his debut at Churchill Downs. He's entered to race on Saturday at Ellis Park in a 5-1/2 furlong maiden special weight. Being by Curlin, I would expect him to improve with distance and age, so I must admit that I'm pretty excited about his potential for next year.

So anyway, have any promising two-year-olds garnered your attention this year? If so, I'd love to hear about them!

09 Jul 2013 3:34 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Tuesday Indiana Downs

R4) 5 Slick Pardoned Me - has finished well in the last two despite being behind the w-w winners of two speed favoring races.  The race two back was an Extreme for Speed.

I'll be using the 2 in an exacta who was had little chance behind an Extreme for Speed last out. B-off tonight.

09 Jul 2013 6:58 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Correction:

Indiana Race 6) #5 Slick Pardoned Me

09 Jul 2013 7:04 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Keelerman -

As you may expect,  two year olds are not my thing.  I can offer that the main track at CD on the 21st was playing kind enough to speed that we'd give it some weight in analyzing performances on that day.  That said, the impact that any bias at shorter sprint distances is worth taking with a grain of salt.

Good luck.

09 Jul 2013 7:11 PM
Little Bill

No 2yos yet but I am interested in a 3yo filly Drysdale trains, Topic. I love the bottom side breeding. Might go in the Am. Oaks. Emollient,.....yikes!

10 Jul 2013 12:17 AM
Rusty Weisner

Keelerman,

I am interested in the 2yos who will be running at Saratoga but have no idea where to look for information in advance on them.  I am never in the know on these races and have a hard time betting them.  Any pointers?

10 Jul 2013 10:07 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Rusty-

Dan Illman at DRF does a lot of good work with Spa babies.

10 Jul 2013 10:33 AM
Rusty Weisner

Plod Boy Phil,

I took a look at some of these picks and results and that Sultry Season was worth the price of subscription:  10-1 after a race where he couldn't close ground in a short field, then dropping in class, to boot.  This is one where if I'd been playing that day I'd have thrown money down, even though I've never played Hollywood.  I don't always think yours is the best handicapping tool but in this case it was the exact right one -- more important, you did the work of digging around for this gem. Good stuff.

10 Jul 2013 10:36 AM
Little Bill

Playing Del 8) today. Chose the 5, a closer as I felt the field was speed laden. Gnarly Girl, main speed, and another scratched. Good opportunity for "speed scratches speed wins". That said I can't get off the 5. The 2 should break and is WtW threat. I hope the 6 tries it, the ML fav may also.  

10 Jul 2013 1:52 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Wednesday Night Indiana Downs

R6) 5 Southern Parkway - closed well behind the up close winner of a a Speed favoring Flow last out.  Two back had none chance behind the w-w winner of an Extreme Race for Speed.  

10 Jul 2013 2:53 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Wednesday Night Woodbine

R8) 7 Bear's Grace - turns back to a 7f sprint following an open length pace setting effort in a race that came back very Closer favoring.  Also makes her second start in for a claim after six failed efforts with MSW company. I've always been partial to the upgraded second time down at the level runner.

10 Jul 2013 5:08 PM
Little Bill

That field, race 6 at Ind. is a real one.

10 Jul 2013 6:02 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Fugue -

I just need a hint of a legit pace to get a large piece.

10 Jul 2013 6:14 PM
Pedigree Ann

"Why would anyone want a new thread?  This one is lucky.  Everyone (except the blog host) is picking winners." -

Lots of big races have come and gone without a word from the fearless leader. Steve H has posted what seems like a dozen columns since then. Blog host supposed to give a focus for discussion.

By the way, Fearless Leader was the superior of Boris and Natasha, the Pottsylvanian spies who were always after 'Moose and Squirrel' (Rocky and Bullwinkle).

For you kids, Rocky the Flying Squirrel was an incredible cartoon of the early 60s, full of sarcasm, puns, and social comment. And hilarious. I learned most of the poetry I know by heart from the Bullwinkle's Corner segments. Same cartoonist later did George of the Jungle.

11 Jul 2013 9:24 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Pedigree Ann -

I remember it.

Surely Rusty's sarcasm was not lost on you,  was it ?

11 Jul 2013 9:41 AM
Rusty Weisner

Plod Boy Phil,

I wasn't being sarcastic at all!

Pedigree Ann,

Who needs a moderator?  Plenty of folks here, including yourself, are capable of raising topics by themselves.  By the way, though I like Haskins' columns, his threads are unusuble because of the lag time in posting.  This one's good and better left unmoderated.

11 Jul 2013 11:57 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Ok, my mistake.

It begs the question then, is the lack of contribution here due to a failure by BH to moderate it's hosts and their unwillingness to make any effort to update Blog topics, or is it merely a result of the fact that the TC season is over?  I'm inclined to believe it is the latter.

11 Jul 2013 1:05 PM
Little Bill

And now, here's something we hope you'll really like..........good weather in Chicago this wkend. New Kent and the east coast, jury is out.

11 Jul 2013 3:03 PM
Sam Santschi

Been away for vacation etcetera.  PBP- think you're right about the TC slant.  Pedigree Ann and Fugue, funny you mention rocky and bull winkle.  It's  a running joke I have with my sister when we're at the track and I'm losing.  I say hey Liz, watch me pull a rabbit out of my hat...But that trick never works...ooh guess I need another hat...probably dabble a little this weekend and want to bet Cotten Alley tmrw night at mountaineer to kick things off.  Also, Rydilluc has to lose at some point, correct?

11 Jul 2013 11:53 PM
Little Bill

That's good stuff with the hat Sam. I'm with ya on trying to beat Rid. Problem is race sets up just like all his other wins. Track the Kitten horse, then go home. 1 1/4 might open up some doors. I think Jack Milton will make some noise. I'm playing Draw Two on top. He's an unknown commodity,wins by open, fresh and has some names in PPs. I hope the turf stays firm as people will dismiss his yielding wins. Good ones don't care. If Rid don't run his race it's open for a few. Gefest is the bomb to hit the board.

Onward thru the fog.

12 Jul 2013 1:17 AM
Mary Zinke

Speaking of 2 year olds, I like The Big Guy's filly Stop Smiling, but how at $33.20 to win?  Also, Doug O'Neill has an Into Mischief filly named Love Smitten. She broke her maiden at Presque Isle Downs under another trainer. Speaking of The Big Guy, he has two very nice fillies in the American Oaks. Scarlet Strike and Macha.

Delaware Oaks: if sloppy, Maracuya and Dancing Afleet.

 American Derby: Admiral Kitten, Stormy Len.

Arlington Handicap: Najjaar, Rahystrada.

Robert G.Dick: Laughing(just came out that way), Clare Skies Ahead.

Man O' War: if yielding, Optimizer, Boisterous.

No new blog subject Phil. I gave you guys and gals enough picks to critique, though.

12 Jul 2013 4:20 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Friday Hollywood

R4) 7 Horizontally Speaking - set the pace of back to back races that proved to be very Closer favoring.  Drops and removes the blinkers in a race with four downgraded off the pace runners.

12 Jul 2013 10:43 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Friday Arlington

R9) 6 Lollipop - two have his last three races were pace setting efforts in Closer favoring races. Between those two efforts was the 'neutral' wire to wire win on this course at this distance against 25K condition claimers.  Set for repeat.

12 Jul 2013 3:47 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Holly 4th follow-up:

Downgrades were 0-4, including the favored 1 (2nd at 9/5) and the 6 (otb at 3-1). I'll guess that the connections of the 7 were fearful of the failed pace setter (2).

12 Jul 2013 5:45 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Saturday Belmont

R3) 7 Coalition - three straight races on the wrong side of Speed favoring Flows, including the last when speed horses held an edge on the main.  Upgraded runner makes his 2nd start down at this Clm1500B level - a favorite angle of mine.

12 Jul 2013 10:54 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Good luck tomorrow Mary.

Book Review makes the grade for us in the A Gleam.  Besides the win bet,  I'll use the 1 Reneesgotzip in an exacta box.

12 Jul 2013 10:58 PM
JayJay

American Derby : Moro Tap and Admiral Kitten

I think Moro Tap is just getting really good, I'm hoping for a nice price on him tomorrow.  Going to box him with Admiral Kitten and Stormy Len

American Oaks :  Topic and Scarlet Strike

Liked the MSW win by Topic although I don't like the switch to Gomez with the race being on the turf.  JL is a really good turf jockey.  Will probably play Sarach also, have a feeling everyone's going to back off and leave her alone on the lead.

Solar Spendor :  North Slope and Balance The Books

Man O'War :  Twilight Eclipse and Boisterous

Throwing out TE's last race, don't think he liked the yielding going.  I think he's the best horse here.

Virginia Derby : Rydilluc and Fear The Kitten

Delaware Oaks : Broomsage and Tell a Great Story

13 Jul 2013 1:32 AM
Mary Zinke

Thanks Phil.  GL as well to you and all.  I haven't been playing so much lately.  Nice to see you and the others keeping up this blog.

Forgot to say GL to the Big Guy's filly in the Landaluce, Pleasant Miss. Not one I know or have heard much about, though.  I updated the IWR brief news at the Haskin Rachel blog.  

13 Jul 2013 2:01 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Fugue -

The AP card is loaded with very nice Flow plays today.  In fact, I prefer less action than this card dictates.

Good luck.

13 Jul 2013 7:51 AM
Kevin

Dabbling a little today.  But big bet on Fear the Kitten at Colonial.  None of the horses with turf races want to go that far; except Charming Kitten whose odds will be too low.

Phil:  Looking forward to your AP picks for today.  

13 Jul 2013 11:55 AM
-Keelerman

Thanks for your thoughts on the two-year-olds, everyone! Sorry I'm late in replying -- it's been a very busy couple of days!

Plod Boy Phil, I'm glad to hear about the Churchill speed bias. All the more reason to be excited about his potential! And Fugue for Tinhorns, I look forward to seeing how Topic performs in the American Oaks. She looks like a nice one!

Rusty Weisner, I'm afraid I can't offer much advice for handicapping two-year-old races. I tend to watch them strictly from the perspective of the following year's Triple Crown.

That said, I know a lot of handicappers feel that watching the daily double probables that connect the two-year-old race and the preceding race can provide hints as to which of the youngsters are well-regarded. A good example came last month at Belmont Park, where a colt named Jakes Magic Hat -- 6-1 on the morning line -- received a great deal of play in the daily double pool and wound up winning the race at odds of 2-1.

That said, last summer at Saratoga, Todd Pletcher was winning two-year-old races left and right, even with horses that were stone cold in the wagering.

And of course, as Plod Boy Phil mentioned, Dan Illman of DRF.com does a great job analyzing the two-year-old races at Saratoga.

-Keelerman

13 Jul 2013 12:13 PM
Pedigree Ann

I've been playing the Colonial Survival game and let me tell you that the turf course has been incredibly inside and front-running favoring. That is why, since I am still alive but lagging in money, I have picked Redwood Kitten. He wants to be upfront and is bred to go 10f, in the 2-hole. Rydilluc strikes me as a miler (first two dams sprinters).

13 Jul 2013 12:30 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Kevin-

One of the AP bold upgrades is on the U&A page of the site,  something I usually do not do.

13 Jul 2013 12:57 PM
koufax

How about General Election in the American Derby at Arlington?

13 Jul 2013 1:24 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Koufax -

It's a 'none' race for us.  The Arlington Classic was just a notch below being considered closer favoring enough for us to warrant downgrading the top two finishers.  On that note, it's interesting that of the top 3 finishers in that race,  Dorsett was the one that was the most forwardly placed early and also made the earliest move into the teeth of the race,  before being passed by GE and AK. With a little more figure strength,  he'd have been given a 'quick to' upgrade.

If I had to make a play,  I'd bet on him to turn the tables on them both following his neutral Alw1x win.  

13 Jul 2013 1:51 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Arlington Park Race 2 bold upgrade Holy Bullhive (16-1), gets run down by a 33-1 FP shipper.  Are you kidding me ?  Where did that race come from ?  Wow.

HB had been on the wrong side of back to back Extreme Races for Speed.

Almost made up for the giant hole bold upgrade failure Coalition had at Belmont.

13 Jul 2013 2:38 PM
Little Bill

Belmont 7) Joha.

13 Jul 2013 3:55 PM
Sam Santschi

Alive to the double with Chamois, Noble Tune and Joha.

Speaking of which, twilight eclipse in MOW.

AP. ioya big time, dame Marie and strathnaver, stormy Len, Dorsett, admiral kitten, keep up, Coalport.

13 Jul 2013 3:59 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Megalith....yes

13 Jul 2013 4:23 PM
Sam Santschi

Tough to lose to horses with silly names but Joha ran well.  At least I bet wps

13 Jul 2013 4:26 PM
Little Bill

Delaware 8) Makayla's Angel. Race sets up for a closer. Didn't have confidence in any. Broomsage might.

13 Jul 2013 4:41 PM
JayJay

Mary Zinke : Belmont turf playing Good, you still playing Optimizer ?  Don't know if I should put him in my P4...

13 Jul 2013 4:42 PM
Little Bill

AP 8) Dame Marie

13 Jul 2013 5:34 PM
Mary Zinke

Sorry, Jay Jay. I read that after the race.  Hope you left him off of your P4.

13 Jul 2013 5:50 PM
JayJay

Mary Zinke : Nice hit on Dancing Afleet !  $20 horse.  Hope you loaded up!

Just hit the tri at Belmont.  I'm dead on the P4, didn't have the 9 in the first leg.

13 Jul 2013 6:08 PM
Mary Zinke

Just free picks service today Jay Jay.

13 Jul 2013 7:10 PM
Sam Santschi

Horacio Horrific!  What was he thinking?  He needs days for that mess.

13 Jul 2013 8:18 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Sunday Calder

R8) 7 For the Luv of Lil - rates bold upgrade status following four consecutive trips in Speed favoring races from well off the pace of four wire to wire winners. Gets Flow today and rolls on either turf or the main.

14 Jul 2013 8:45 AM
Sam Santschi

Thanks Pbp for liv.  Of course, my brother's cat is named lil.  My cousin's daughter's name is lil...Still, great call, lol.

14 Jul 2013 4:29 PM
Little Bill

Good one Phil.

14 Jul 2013 4:41 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Thanks Sam and Fugue-

I'd say the pleasure was all mine,  but that would not be true.

14 Jul 2013 5:15 PM
Mary Zinke

To Dos Equis from horse #1.

www.youtube.com/watch

14 Jul 2013 9:35 PM
KY VET

hey mary......claimed a ky bred..........running at the fair in 3 weeks...................all time winning jock to ride...............horse #1 gets 2 more weeks off.............triva question.....who? since beyer figs were put in form, has the 2 highest beyer figs ever given............dont answer yet, just say i know/ or i dont know......

15 Jul 2013 4:28 PM
KY VET

mary....you get to know my name too.......figure it out......but as always.....discreet........hows your friend dan?(big guy)

15 Jul 2013 4:32 PM
Pedigree Ann

"Also, Doug O'Neill has an Into Mischief filly named Love Smitten. She broke her maiden at Presque Isle Downs under another trainer. "-

I saw that name and thought, "What the heck?" How can they be re-using that name already? I mean, Love Smitten won the Vanity and Apple Blossom (both G1) in 1986 and produced 3 SWs in the 1990s, including Swain, who was at stud up to 2011. Surely it is too soon to re-use the name, with her son's offspring still racing.

I saw a filly and mare race in which War Relic and Sex Appeal were competing and it astounded me. War Relic was a top sire, got Intent, Relic, etc., and was THE important link in the Man o' War sireline coming down to In Reality, Relaunch, and Tiznow. Buckpasser's daughter Sex Appeal produced 3 SWs, including classic winner El Gran Senor (a sire) and G1 winner Try My Best, also a sire.

When a champion like Bramalea (also the dam of Roberto) can have her name repeated, you have to wonder who is watching the store at the Jockey Club?

15 Jul 2013 8:28 PM
Mary Zinke

KY, I am just now reading your note, above.  So, let me try to figure this out.  The Big Guy had no comment after the Oaks, but I'm sure they're busy as always  in that barn, sending some to Del Mar, of course.  I'll visit in November. He did say wait 'til I meet Stop Smiling.  

17 Jul 2013 12:49 AM
Mary Zinke

Yes, I know, if you mean what the Brady kids might have said.

17 Jul 2013 12:58 AM
Little Bill

Friday race 7 at Saratoga, full brothers entered.

17 Jul 2013 1:03 AM
Mary Zinke

Fugue, that kind of thing, brothers raised separately meeting to race, interests me(almost could have said fascinates) so I re-posted your news.  Thanks for letting us know.

17 Jul 2013 11:23 AM
KY VET

yep! you got right answer...top 2 beyers since beyer figs started....

17 Jul 2013 11:33 AM
Mary Zinke

KY, Yes, I do spent an inordinate amount of time on my stalking hobby, and yes, I can find just about any* creature living or dead, but no other hints? Such as did you adopt a boy or a girl? How far back should I look? I checked out horse #1's usual haunt for claims(P.S. 7/3/13 has an error of some kind, regular chart does not match historical chart claim for one of the races) and the "fair" charts. Next step is to check all of that jockey's mounts for what? the next month, starting in a week or so?    

17 Jul 2013 12:07 PM
-Keelerman

Rusty Weisner;

Following up on the topic of two-year-old racing at Saratoga, here are a couple of great DRF.com articles on the subject:

www.drf.com/.../saratoga-2-year-old-races-can-feature-future-stars-game

www.drf.com/.../pletcher-baby-s

17 Jul 2013 5:48 PM
KY VET

that's fair......

17 Jul 2013 7:08 PM
KY VET

This is a true story..............we were going to claim a horse, and of course, you need to get claim in 15 mins before race...........the horse we were gonna claim, never ran with wraps, or any kind of equiptment...............so we look at the horse when he gets to recieving barn(to make sure he has 4 legs)........he comes out, with a full cup on one eye, 2 front wraps, one of them bigger than the other! He obviously had bowed a tendon, and lost an eye  explaining the 6 weeks off, since his last race..........obviously we put the claim in, as we are not idiotic enough to believe this overkill, to make the horse look bad.......at about the 12 min mark, off goes the full blinker! as the horse walked to the back of the walking ring, off goes half the wrap with extra cotton!..the horse ran a good 2nd, and we find out, another claim was put in, by a trainer that already had a horse in the race.....(which was kinda strange, considering he would have 2 at the same level)........as luck would have it, we got outshook......it then occurred to me, we were victim, of the ol' fake claim! the trainer had his friend put in the claim for him! Yes, the proof was,the step up in class re-claim of the horse....( it was a filly so no taxes on sell).....the guy always had the filly! he fake claimed it back........all of this for a cheap claimer! Karma is a "b" though....horse ran off the board in the next 2 races!  thank you karma!............we all have our little fun racetrack stories huh?

17 Jul 2013 7:46 PM
Mary Zinke

I've heard of a few stories like that. You should write a book, KY, or dictate one ;)

Thanks for my new full-time stalk project.  Nothing like being direct.

Don't worry--I'm smiling through all of it.

17 Jul 2013 10:34 PM
KY VET

story #2...the sequel........,....,...,....,...,,...,,...,...,,....,......the end....

17 Jul 2013 11:36 PM
Little Bill

Your're welcome Mary.

18 Jul 2013 4:32 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Blog On

- Saratoga opens it's 2013 meet Friday with two races of interest to Flow players:

R4) 5 Shakeira - never better with an modestly upgraded 'vs Plod Win' in her last following an impressive 'vs Plod Win' in her return off a six mos. gap.

R6) 2 Invading Humor - gained ground impressively in her grass debut on downgraded w-w winner of an Extreme Race for Speed. We're big fans of the runner that recorded an upgrade in the turf debut and makes second start on it.

Who has an opening day price horse at Saratoga?

19 Jul 2013 1:21 AM
Little Bill

I like Invading Humor also. Hopefully she'll find room. I'd love to see the old swing wind run down the center. I'm also using the 6) Mighty Reward.

In the 4th it's going to be tough to beat the two standouts. I'm going to try the 8) Princess Mara.

19 Jul 2013 2:51 AM
Mary Zinke

Race 1: Minister Colin

Race 8: Hello Lover

19 Jul 2013 3:40 AM
Sam Santschi

Phil:  Race 4 Saratoga:  Dreaming of Cara. 2nd off layoff. Is this the kind of horse that just doesn't belong in this company and Rosario is just a bad bet because he will just depress the odds or can he move this longshot up the many lengths she will need to hit the board?  Fugue, I sort of like Princess Mara too.  

19 Jul 2013 10:27 AM
Rusty Weisner

Anybody looked at Saturday's Saratoga card?  I looked at the last five races and couldn't find anything to single.  That's a first for me:  looking Form and not liking anything enough to throw even a few bucks at.  

19 Jul 2013 10:38 AM
Plod Boy Phil

I should clarify. There are eight races of interest at Saratoga for us today. The 4th and 6th happen to contain bold upgrades.

19 Jul 2013 10:39 AM
Rusty Weisner

Kind of like two longshots Saturday:  Kid Blast in 7th and Buddy Jones in the 11th.  But not enough to phone in bets from the beach.

19 Jul 2013 10:46 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Sam -

She's 'just a horse' to me.

He's 'just a jockey' to me. Someone had to ride the horse,  and that's what he's there to do.  

19 Jul 2013 10:51 AM
Rusty Weisner

Sam Santschi,

It sounds like you've answered your own question: you don't like the horse and recognize you likely get poor odds because of the jockey.

I agree with PBP. I wouldn't let the jockey get in your head.

19 Jul 2013 11:08 AM
Rusty Weisner

Actually, I like Soul House in the 7th, too, and he won't be the favorite.  Maybe an exacta with that longshot.  Two of the favorites are in the way outside posts.

Speaking of which, anyone have post position stats for Saratoga for 2012?  Keelerman?

19 Jul 2013 11:26 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Rusty-

I have an opinion on one your 7th race horses tomorrow.

19 Jul 2013 11:55 AM
Rusty Weisner

Plod Boy Phil,

I'm going to guess you don't like Soul House and are downgrading him.

19 Jul 2013 12:19 PM
Little Bill

Sam with Mara out Cara's my other. Her last race wasn't bad after the layoff. As stated, favs are tough.

"just a jockey", well said. True every race for me.

19 Jul 2013 12:54 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Rusty-

My goal was to give you the option of choosing to read my opinion or not.  I'll take the above as a yes,  and with 'none' malice intended:  

R7) 2 Kid Blast's last was 'with' an Extreme Race for Speed,  a race in which he failed.  Thus the horse must be considered a downgrade using our methods. His debut was also Flow aided - he's thus failed in both advantageous scenarios.

The opposing view is certainly well supported as well, as the ML,  the contentious running line (at least second and less than a behind/back of the leader for 3 or more straight calls, and the time he's been given to mature,  do have merits.

good luck during the meeting

19 Jul 2013 12:55 PM
Little Bill

Good luck to all. Let the festivities begin.

19 Jul 2013 12:56 PM
Rusty Weisner

Plod Boy Phil,

Yes, that was a yes to getting your opinion, but wanted to see if I could predict it first.

As for this Kid Blast, here's why I will ignore the "downgrade":  that race was five months ago and it looks like it was part of a road to recovery; I'll discount the result while looking favorably on his competitiveness there.  I tend to like a horse that has had a single winter "workout" race sandwiched between layoffs.  The very fast November race that put him out got a 104 Beyer.  At 12-1 I'll give him a chance of being back in form.

I'm surprised you're not downgrading the other one, Soul House, the closer.  I'm giving him a chance because, besides the fact the last two races he's run in have been faster than any the others here have been in, I'll bet he gets more to close into in a 13-horse field.  He's also failed less, and won his maiden at Saratoga.

That was a lot of writing for a lousy $16 in bets:

R7: $2 box 2,8

R7 $1 P3: 2,8/2,3,4,7/Authenticity

R11: $1 box ex 8/11,12

19 Jul 2013 1:30 PM
Plod Boy Phil

All three of Soul House's races were very fair to all.

19 Jul 2013 1:58 PM
Rusty Weisner

Plod Boy Phil,

Good to hear!  

Good luck to all today, especially the horses in this heat.

19 Jul 2013 2:16 PM
Mary Zinke

My race 1 Saratoga pick didn't work out, but at least a bazillionaire likes him, too. He's now a Repole horse.

19 Jul 2013 2:59 PM
Rusty Weisner

Lots of scratches in the heat.

19 Jul 2013 3:41 PM
Rusty Weisner

Plod Boy Phil,

That was terrible luck with both those picks.

Be glad you're not me, because I'd take it as an ill omen on the first day of the meet like that.

I'm actually reading the charts, not watching.  I'm suprised how quickly they post them.

19 Jul 2013 4:59 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Shakiera was clearly troubled, though it's impact on the result is nothing more than speculation.

Invading Humor was outrun, as they all were.

20 Jul 2013 1:31 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Saturday Saratoga

R3) 10 Caroline Thomas - closed with a rush in here last despite a modestly speed favoring Flow. Owns an upgrade out of the very speed favoring Hcmbride as well.

I'll use the 2 Kitten's Queen off a modest 'Quick to Zip' move in latest after a neutral run in the common Sands Point. She was also upgraded out of the Alw1x at Keeneland.

20 Jul 2013 12:13 PM
Little Bill

Phil, my price horse in the 3rd is the 4.

20 Jul 2013 1:23 PM
Little Bill

I thought I'd play against early speed on turf early in the meet. I guess not.

20 Jul 2013 2:08 PM
Kevin

Wow; rough 2 days at Saratoga.  Can't even get a horse close to show.  

20 Jul 2013 6:31 PM
Coldfacts

"We all have our little fun racetrack stories, huh?"

Interesting!

When my story regarding Freshly Minted was posted, I was regarded as a liar and a fraud.

The last horse I was associated with was a colt I named Due Diligence. I leased him without doing the necessary back ground checks and subsequently discovered he had multiple issue. However, he had one important positive and that was exceptional speed.

Of his many problems, the one that was the most challenging to address was diagnosed to be some form of repertory disease. He was in fact a G1 caliber colt but due to his lack of early care he was unlikely to realize his true potential.

We got him to the races and he would lead for 3-4 furlongs before rapidly slowing down for many off the board finishes.

We addressed his repertory issue a best we could and he won his 1st race by 10L. Subsequent to that victory he developed hack issue.

The only option to address his hack issue was to infuse them with Cortisone. A procedure that would inevitably render them useless. I therefore realized that he had a very short window to win another race.

He was worked the day before his last race under the lease agreement by jockey Simone Husband brother of Canadian top rider Patrick Husband. He advised me the colt could not loose. I was skeptical as I had heard that quote too many times before. I enquired as to why he was of this opinion. He rolled off his gloves and displayed his palms that were still very red from holding the colt in his 4F work.

In the 1st two furlongs the race the following day the colt was 15L in front, he eventually held on to win by a NS. I returned him to his breeder thereafter as I was sure he would never run another competitive race. He never did.

I wagered J$20,000 in the race. J$10K to win, J$5K to place and $J5K on a DD. He paid $J$99 to win and the DD came in at J$500.

21 Jul 2013 8:59 AM
Coldfacts

The Jim Dandy is shaping up to be a very competitive race. Can any of the late bloomers upstage the established contenders?

A gelding by the name Moreno appears to have turned the page since leaving California. His 1st nine starts were made between BHP, DMR and SA and all resulted in losses. Since his arrival in NY he is unbeaten in two starts. What a difference a coast makes!

Can a gelding that took 10 starts to break his maiden have any realistic chance against some of the top 3YO?  One of his 2 victories in NY was the Dwyer. He was visually impressive in his gate to wire effort. Is that enough to make him a contender?

Moreno is an extremely well bred horse. His sire Ghostzapper and dam sire A P Indy need no introduction. It appears he inherited the tactical speed of his sire and appears to have the stamina to carry same over long distances from his dam sire.

Moreno’s dam Danceinthesunlight is an unraced daughter of Dancethruthedawn a champion 3YO in Canada and HOF inductee. Her dam was Dance Smartly a Canadian HOY, Champion 3YO Filly in US & Canada and HOF inductee. Moreno 2nd and 3rd dams earned a combined $5M.

This gelding’s pedigree suggests he has the capacity to develop into a top class horse. He appears to have found favor in NY and being by an unraced mare, his best is yet to come.

21 Jul 2013 9:47 AM
Pedigree Ann

Coldfacts -

I take it you are not speaking of Due Diligence (USA, 1972), who won 12 races including the G2 Carter H? Not familiar with any others of that name.

21 Jul 2013 10:50 AM
Coldfacts

Correction to the post on Due Diligence. He was diagnose with a form of Respiratory Disease not  Repertory Disease

21 Jul 2013 11:35 AM
KY VET

what an ediot!...........

21 Jul 2013 11:57 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Sunday Del Mar

R8) 4 Wishing Gate impressed with a 'vs Plod Win' in closing through an Extreme Race for Speed from the back of the pack.  This filly is very talented and may even catch Flow today.

21 Jul 2013 12:04 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Does the Due Diligence story get reprinted every 6 months,  whether needed or not ?

Who's playing horses today ?

21 Jul 2013 12:06 PM
KY VET

grade 1.......as in , the education of coldcuts' education....right after kindergarden..........real racing on the island.....like, throwing a bone as hard as you can....and calling it dog racing!.....where 10,000 equals about 20 dollars real money........like where they work a horse....and run it the next day.........where medication, obviously not given to the insane!

21 Jul 2013 12:08 PM
KY VET

where 20,000 doesnt change odds.........

21 Jul 2013 12:10 PM
Coldfacts

Pedigree Ann,

Due Diligence 1972 USA

Due Diligence 2005 NZ

Due Diligence 1999 IRE

Due Diligence 1992 SAF

Due Diligence 2011.USA

Due Diligence 1996 Jamaica

The Due Diligence referenced in my post was foaled in Jamaica.

21 Jul 2013 12:29 PM
Coldfacts

Plod Boy Phil,

I think you are mixing Due Diligence with Freshly Minted. A good story like a good movie never get old. Would you like to hear about 'Perdition' my first horse. Lighten Up. There are contributors that make dozens of posts. I make a few and I must be attacked.

I also made a post about Moreno. In your line of business your time would be better spent providing your upgrade/downgrade opinions.

21 Jul 2013 12:41 PM
Coldfacts

The standard of horse racing in Jamaica is very low. There are some tracks in the US that are not dissimilar in terms of the quality of horse the form daily racing cards.

A race track story can emerge from just about any race track. There are many Americans that believe there is one country in the world. They sadly need to be educated.

Education is the acquisition of knowledge and this can occur just about any place on planet earth.

Now, that not so difficult to understand.

At the time the wage was made on Due Diligence the exchange rate was J$40 to 1$US. A simple division would reflect a US$ equivalent of $500. The wager returned approximately J$400,000 (US$10,000)

Wagers made at betting parlors in Jamaica do not get into the tote unless the bookmakers choose to lay off some at the track to impact final dividend.  Like most bookmakers if they believe a horse cannot win a particular race they will not resort to such actions.

You will never understand the above disclosure as your knowledge is too limited and you have been a miserable failure in expanding same.

21 Jul 2013 1:04 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Coldfacts -

This was all presented months ago,  including answering the exact same question posed by VET.  I need not look for it,  as my memory is sound, at times trap-like even.

Any horses strike your fancy,  today ?

21 Jul 2013 1:11 PM
Coldfacts

Plod Boy Phil,

Since you have aligned yourself with the Kentucky Klown, you are now depicting his brand. This indeed sad as I have and will always regard you as a very bright contributor.

It only takes one bad apple to spoil the entire bunch

21 Jul 2013 1:58 PM
ROBBIEJOE25

Wow was hoping when I seen 513 posts there would be some helpful insight but instead the same ole same ole. Takin a couple swings today.

Woodbine race 7; ex bx 8/2358

Saratoga race 9; Debt Ceiling for fun, short priced but take what you can get

Del Mar race 3; baffert ex

Goodluck and enjoy whats left of the weekend.......

21 Jul 2013 2:51 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Robbie-

There's been very little activity since the Belmont - mostly me giving out $20 horses.

I like the 6 Hampstead Heath in the WO 7th - the last was a nice 'vs Plod Win'. Takes big step up but is live to produce best ever today.

Good luck.

21 Jul 2013 3:12 PM
ROBBIEJOE25

Thanks Phil Good luck to you too.

21 Jul 2013 3:28 PM
Little Bill

THANK YOU PHIL!

21 Jul 2013 4:09 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Robbie-

It just goes down as another loser from the Flow.

21 Jul 2013 4:20 PM
Rusty Weisner

Plod Boy Phil,

re: Hampstead Heath  

No mas.  Uncle.

21 Jul 2013 5:08 PM
Rusty Weisner

Sort of bothered I didn't try to do something with Princess of Sylmar; 2-1 in a five-horse field is okay.  Everyone said she "benefited from the pace", as if it was her decision to get roughed up at the start of the Oaks.  Meanwhile, Unlimited Budget was a good candidate for betting against.

21 Jul 2013 5:13 PM
ROBBIEJOE25

Phil thanks for the tip I wheeled your horse second in ex, like I told you a while back I play with and fade a lot of bloggers thanks again and goodluck

21 Jul 2013 5:25 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Rusty -

Princess's win in the Oaks was perfectly Neutral,  thus she was again the lone upgrade in a G1.

Unlimited Budget was the lone downgrade in the race.

21 Jul 2013 5:28 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Glad to hear it Robbie.

Long live the vs Plod Winner

21 Jul 2013 5:43 PM
ROBBIEJOE25

Phil I would never have picked that horse if not for you, no disrespect intended. In a wide open race and me not a very good synthetic handicapper I took your opinion and wheeled him first and second for 36 bucks solely on a hunch...........

21 Jul 2013 6:40 PM
Plod Boy Phil

He was the classic 'no brainer'.

It's a compliment to have horses jump off the paper in 3D when few others get there, even after the race.

Thanks.

21 Jul 2013 7:12 PM
Plod Boy Phil

re: Wishing Gate

Oh my....superstar ?

21 Jul 2013 8:51 PM
Plod Boy Phil

did someone say '3D' ?

21 Jul 2013 9:10 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Now imagine a horse in the last race at Dmr that pressed the early pace, opened up a clear lead,  then got run down by a very deep closer and three others from further back. It sounds like one of those 'Quick to Zip' moves if it had Flow figure power?

Then imagine a DQ that goes your way, putting said 28-1 shot up for the win.

Good times.

21 Jul 2013 9:36 PM
ROBBIEJOE25

Superstar never, great ride maybe I had 20 dollar 1/2 ex boxed and a 10 dollar 4/2/1 but it is what it is. Moving on to Monday hope to that Vet, Jay Jay, Mary join me Kevin Fig, Rusty and Phil in the Blog......    

21 Jul 2013 9:47 PM
Plod Boy Phil

I beg to differ - She is Special. There was no Flow today.  Gary did the exact same thing Eddie did last time;  he didn't fall off.

21 Jul 2013 9:57 PM
Plod Boy Phil

I'll pay my 'past posting tax' on Centenario de Oro past with:

Monday Saratoga

R6) 7 Herbert Hall - very modest 'vs Plod Winner' steps up into a ZipFest.  

21 Jul 2013 10:02 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Dreadful

22 Jul 2013 3:52 PM
Mary Zinke

I try to take Mondays "off" but I was posting at another site, just because a few comments had me amused.  Except for obvious winners Princess of Sylmar and Authenticity, not much luck at Saratoga for me, except for Broken Spell placing in the My Princess Jess. I had it Broken Spell, Caroline Thomas, Silsita, Wave Theory. Sometimes, I only post pre-race elsewhere, but I will try to stop by here more often.  

Very happy about Royal Delta, although I didn't think she needed to "come back". I didn't think anything was wrong with her. Last time I talked about that, a whole thread was taken down, but I'll just say no one got in her way this time. Not referring to horses.

Loved Jeranimo's Eddie Read win. Look how his feet(and be-hind) were moving.  Also the nice baby, Tamarando, placing in a msw at Del Mar yesterday. Chart says 4 wide--I think he ran wider than that. Otherwise, about Del Mar, except for the turf racing, I can say that Fairplex is still worse for me.

Please tell me how it's not Verrazano in the Haskell. Meaning he's my pick. Also, please, no rain. I just hate that for any big graded stakes.

Heard about the host. Still alive, but not expected back.  Can't say more. That's up to him.

Phil's doing a very good job.  Anyone starting up a contest?  Maybe for Travers Day, even though that's at the end of August.

22 Jul 2013 4:06 PM
Rusty Weisner

Mary Zinke,

That last race of Verrazano's was so soft it's hard for me to pick him.  I don't think he's going to like running into Oxbow.  I'll probably try to beat him with an Oxbow/Mylute exacta (that could change!).  I think Micromanage and Power Broker will be underlays -- in the past decade or so the only outsiders (non-TC horses) to win the Haskell have been Coil and Roman Ruler.

23 Jul 2013 10:01 AM
Mary Zinke

Rusty, I think the sprinter Coil was helped in the Haskell by getting off to a slow start, and 'saving" his sprint for the end of the race. Beginning of Travers' week he ran fantastically and for an invited crowd, Problem was, that was a morning work of like 1:10 for 6f.  I just think Verrazano will run faster earlier and easier than Oxbow. Certainly thinking he'll last, too.  I like Micromanage. He looks to keep improving. I'll post before the race, with my picks in order of preference.  I thought Mylute is running in the Jim Dandy.

23 Jul 2013 1:27 PM
Pedigree Ann

There are 3 stakes races for 3yos at 9f this coming weekend - the Curlin at $100K, the Jim Dandy at $600K, and the Haskell at $1 million. Two are at the same track! and the other is a trailer-ride away. Are there really enough good 3yos that all three can be competitive, interesting races? Or are the tracks diluting the product by this scheduling?

23 Jul 2013 10:36 PM
Forbidden Apple

Plod Boy Phil,

The price horse on opening day was Hardest Core at 9/2. I started the meet off with a huge bang, the Hardest Core/I'll Call exacta came back a whopping $66. And I ended the day with a win ticket on Sage Valley, as well as a double into Brazen Persuasion and Banah.

I played light on day 2, with the exception of the late double. Princess of Sylmar into Velvet Cap. I still don't know how Rosarion could not get Velvet Cap in front before the wire. Celebrated Talent ran well in defeat. No interest in day 3. I only played 2 races on monday, the 8th and 10th. Fantasy of Flight was my key horse, I had him boxed with Corsage, both ran well in defeat. Corsage will be hard to hold off next time out at a longer distance. Race 10 exacta came back $26 for me with Starship Gambler rolling early and Sheerflakesofgold sleeping until the final 1/8 of a mile, easy money.

23 Jul 2013 11:11 PM
Forbidden Apple

Pedigree Ann,

There are plenty of quality 3 year olds around that most people know very little about. Kiaran McLaughlin has 3 of them running on friday and I think all of them have a strong chance to win. Brabbham 3rd race(msw), just missed last time and he is training very well. Present Course 6th race(msw), this guy is a new gelding and looks like he wants to be a good horse, not sure how good he is at the moment. The best one is in the Curlin (race 8), Transparent has been battling some minor issues, but is now ready to prove himself. This will be a good starting point for him to show his quality and gameness. Look for him in the winner's circle.

23 Jul 2013 11:18 PM
Forbidden Apple

The inner turf course at Saratoga is speed favoring again this year

in my opinion. The course has been in great need of water, but I don't think the course got enough water to downgrade it from firm, we'll see tomorrow.

Race 8: #1 Jan's Perfect Star is a gate to wire pick for me at 3-1. The 2 month layoff is an obvious concern. If she looks fit and happy in the paddock, I'm all in for a double with Midnight Watch.

Race 9: MIDNIGHT WATCH is primed for her first stakes victory at 5-1. I don't believe this girl is a need the lead type, but I think Ortiz is going to send her early and never look back. She is on the muscle and bouncing every day, ready to do more. The DRF comment states that she will be tested for class. In my mind she already passed that test, she is full of class. My concern is the pace, if she goes in 47 and change again, it's all but over. The obvious favorite does deserve respect, but Kitten's Dumplings will have to work extra hard to run past this gentle giant. I'll be playing her in doubles with the 3 chalks in the 10th, Harrier Hill, Lasso, and Wher's Danny. I like Harrier Hill the best if he gets in.

23 Jul 2013 11:41 PM
Rusty Weisner

Forbidden Apple,

Thanks for the tips.  I was thinking about playing a P3 or P4 Friday and will keep your picks in mind.  I'll take a good look at the early P4, with two 3-and-up MSW races.  Last Friday's card had two baby races in the early P4; for me that's unplayable.

24 Jul 2013 9:06 AM
Mary Zinke

Today, Saratoga r2: 3,2,4

Saratoga r6: 9,10,1a,7

Saratoga r9: 2,1,6,5

24 Jul 2013 12:10 PM
-Keelerman

Rusty Weisner;

Dan Illman of DRF.com just compiled some post positions stats on his blog. I hope these are what you were after!

www.drf.com/.../royal-delta-spa-winning-posts

24 Jul 2013 12:59 PM
Forbidden Apple

My mistake, Present Course is a 4 year old maiden.

24 Jul 2013 3:17 PM
KY VET

Mr. commons!!!!!200wp

24 Jul 2013 3:39 PM
KY VET

wow.....weak race....

24 Jul 2013 3:44 PM
KY VET

sar race 7...hate the fav..#3 my cousin zinny.......that leaves #8 blue ballerina or #4 lara......i like lara, but #8 looks way best on paper.....200wp #8

24 Jul 2013 4:02 PM
KY VET

mary....look for same trainer claim at a fair track......we run at fair in a little over 2 weeks....

24 Jul 2013 4:04 PM
KY VET

horse #1 runs sunday if it fills.......we at 50 percent wins....gotta get back over 50%.....

24 Jul 2013 4:06 PM
KY VET

well.....correct about fav.....off board.......my pick 2nd.....lara 3rd......oh well.....

24 Jul 2013 4:17 PM
KY VET

hey apple....midnight watch peaked!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! tapicat!!!  200wp.....whatdachances improves too.....

24 Jul 2013 4:57 PM
KY VET

sar..race 10...lasso 200wp

24 Jul 2013 4:59 PM
Rusty Weisner

Talk about betting a horse that's peaked -- I bet Turallure in the Woodford last year.  He ran second in an allowance race today.

24 Jul 2013 6:42 PM
Rusty Weisner

Forbidden Apple,

I like Transparent enough to single, but don't expect 5/2.

24 Jul 2013 6:49 PM
KY VET

del race 6 200wp #4 bella viaggia

24 Jul 2013 7:42 PM
KY VET

del race 6 200wp #4 bella viaggia

24 Jul 2013 7:42 PM
KY VET

del race 6 200wp #4 bella viaggia

24 Jul 2013 7:42 PM
KY VET

del race 6 200wp #4 bella viaggia

24 Jul 2013 7:42 PM
Mary Zinke

Okay, KY.

Wish I'd posted my Del Mar picks here, too. Big Guy's Sweet Lu Lu just romped in the 6th.   South American champ took the Wickerr.

24 Jul 2013 8:36 PM
KY VET

bella was 2nd to a monster!...ok...the best bet of the day ....del mar race 8 300w200p #1 indycot

24 Jul 2013 8:36 PM
Rusty Weisner

There's a short but good field in the Diana and a good bet-against in Stephanie's Kitten.  I like Centre Court and Dayatthespa.

24 Jul 2013 8:43 PM
KY VET

yes!! best bet wins by 4......break about even......mary....so impressed with sweet lulu....this is a superstar? the horse can run....

24 Jul 2013 8:49 PM
KY VET

Steve haskin deserves our respect.....he has won many awards, paints beautiful pictures, by writing heatwarming stories that bring tears in our eyes......he even gets a pass, when he writes an irresponsible article about a horse that broke down........no facts about any problems the horse had or didnt have, just the fact that the people involved shouldnt have let it happen......they are all "bad" people.....the blog full of people that want the trainers' licence revoked.....tar and feather the trainer this.......ban him for that..........only horses that are sound should run.......we then would have 2 tracks with 5 races and small fields in them i guess.............i'll have another had big problems.....he was managed brilliantly up to the derby, and won.......if he broke down, o'neil is a trainer that should be banned? alydar had problems, he never would change leads because of them.....he shouldnt have raced?.....monzante shouldnt of raced because he used to be good? now he was 2 seconds slower?  we should put in a rule that no horse can drop down in class?  retire derek jeter because he cant do the things he used to?  You are putting down horseman mr. haskins.....you dont write an article that demonizes people , just because a horse breaks down.....shame on you!

24 Jul 2013 9:41 PM
Mary Zinke

Isn't she nice, KY?  Good job with Indycott. My top pick in the finale ran 5th.

24 Jul 2013 9:42 PM
Mary Zinke

My question at that blog had to do with the 8 months layoff but the last recorded workout was June 1st. I had been wondering if that track, Evangeline, doesn't require more recorded works in the weeks right before a race, after a layoff of that length.  Since my question was posted, news came out that Monzante had  passed more than 1 pre-race vet check, and the owner said the horse had "two-minute licks".

25 Jul 2013 4:49 AM
jimthepimp

Even though I don't agree with KY VET on his position on Lasix. I agree with his comment about Steve Haskins article on Monzante as being right on. People always want to rush to judgement without all the facts. There is no evidence that this is anything other than an unfortunate injury to a wonderful horse.

On another note in the Jim Dandy im going to take a stance against Palace Malice winning and use Moreno for the win position. I know its a big step up but the added blinkers has moved this horse up. He will be on the lead or second to Freedom Child. Odds are too low to take Palace Malice with only a maiden win besides his Belmont win. I know he looked great but they will be coming home in less than 27 seconds in this one. My pick is 4 W 5 W 8,10 for the tri. I will also put the 8,10 in second with the 5 third. Good luck to all.

25 Jul 2013 10:42 AM
Sam Santschi

Crazy Jim Dandy longshot pick:  Looking Cool.  Okay, with Moreno and Code West in an exacta box.  Palace Malice, MyLute underlays. Sentimentality aside, I don't think Mr. Tafel and Mr. Nafzger are just vacationing.  

25 Jul 2013 1:32 PM
Ranagulzion

Freedom Child to take the Jim Dandy,

Stephanie's Kitten a cinch in the Dianna and Verazzano to romp in the Haskel on Sunday

Where's Pete?

25 Jul 2013 1:42 PM
Rusty Weisner

jimthepimp,

I'm not taking a stand against him.  I think he's the best of the 3-yos this year and I'm happy to hear the opinion of some that his Belmont was flukish.  I don't care about the 98 Beyer and the slow finish.  The first 6f of the race was blazing, almost a full second faster than the Smarty Jones or Point Given Belmonts, and this race is 8.5f.  Just look what he and Oxbow did to the two that challenged for the lead.  If he's even money I'll still won't consider him an underlay. Plus he's a sentimental favorite.

I will try a couple of 20-1 longshots elsewhere, though, on Friday.  Professor Plum off the two-year layoff in that last race and Run a Tubb Tubb in the 4th:  this horse runs every one or two weeks, pretty much alternates form between two or three races, and has already run well at this exact class.  I'm also hoping that Howie's Tiz and possibly Dyker Beach in the 3rd are longer than their ML odds: they had no chance in that 5th race Belmont Day (where they went 1-2-3 around the track and your Moreno ran away with it).

25 Jul 2013 1:49 PM
Rusty Weisner

Ranagulzion,

I'm betting against Stephanie's Kitten:  different surface, different distance, short field with speed elsewhere.

I hope Verrazano is the favorite, but I don't really believe the ML; I'm betting against him, too.

25 Jul 2013 2:15 PM
Rusty Weisner

jimthepimp,

I like a Brabbham/Howie's Tiz exacta in R3 Friday and the same two in a double with my longshot in R4.  I'll also single Transparent in late P3s.  Shertzer in R10 also ran a strong race after recovering from a very bad stumble; I'll have him with my longshot and the favorite in my P3.

25 Jul 2013 2:24 PM
Ranagulzion

Rusty,

Good luck trying to beat Verrazano.

You have a better shot at upsetting the Jim Dandy field because that's a very competitive race. We'll see how the Stephanie Kitten race plays out.

25 Jul 2013 5:28 PM
Forbidden Apple

No, Irad Ortiz peaked at the Big A. He does not deserve to ride Midnight Watch again. He had no business rushing her up to the lead like a rocket and then never gearing her down around the clubhouse turn or backstretch. Watch the replay, his hands are down and he is riding her like it was a 6F sprint, what a clown. He is not strong enough to hold her back and the clock in his head is broken. Besides the insane pace, she did not care for the good turf. She proved her quality, I only feel bad for the horse.

Does anyone give Vyjack a chance in the Jim Dandy?

Rusty,

Don't forget about Present Course, with the drop down he should be tough. The layoff is a concern, but he is a new gelding and training very well. As for Brabbham and Transparent, both are extremely happy and bouncing around and ready to win! My only concern is with Irad Ortiz. The horses are ready to fire, it's up to him.

25 Jul 2013 10:04 PM
Plod Boy Phil

FA -

Perhaps you are already aware, the splits for the Lake George were corrected to 23.55, 46.45.  Durkin's call was spot on, "hard to believe..."  

25 Jul 2013 10:34 PM
Forbidden Apple

Yes, it was hard to believe when I was watching it from the finish line. Still, 46 2/5 is faster than I wanted to see. I told the groom and exercise rider after her last win at Belmont that this filly does not need to be gunned to the lead and used hard early. Their answer was that he must be listening to pre-race instructions. I don't know, yesterday seemed like a waste of talent to me. So much time and effort goes into the training and then in a flash it all went out the window.

25 Jul 2013 10:54 PM
Plod Boy Phil

She was 2-2 running off on her own - hard to change tactics or place blame.

As you know,  the calm, relaxed atmosphere of morning works is a far cry from the anxiety and energy levels in the paddock, parade and gate.

25 Jul 2013 11:23 PM
Coldfacts

FA,

I see you are still supporting Kiaran McLaughlin’s charges. I have jumped ship long ago but I will not oppose to placing a wager on a potential winner from any camp. You referenced three Darley colts that I have given some views on below.

Brabbham: A $1.2M purchase by Darley. These high price yearlings are usually moderate at best. Carson City is a very good broodmare sire and could help this colt. He is likely to make the winner dividend a lot better.

Present Course: Produce from a G1 winning Deputy Minister mare. DP is a great broodmare sire. However, his unraced and lightly race mares are the producers of the champions. This colt like e his stalemate above will enhance the winner dividend.

Transparent: I thought you mentioned previously that he was part Donkey. Well they are from the same family i.e., Beasts of Burden. He only wins in inferior company. If this field is considered inferior, then he wins, if not he will come up short. I rather like co-entry he has less experience but appears to be the classier of the two.

The above are nicely bred horses  in the hands of a trainer that does not inspire confidence. Good luck and may you get an opportunity to ridicule after the races.

26 Jul 2013 9:12 AM
Coldfacts

Ranagulzion,

My learned colleague, I see you are still firmly on the Verrazano bandwagon.

You no doubt expect him to make all. Well a Power Broker might have some thing to say about that.

Pulpit against More Than Ready is not a fair fight. That stated I much prefer Micro Manage. Did you see his last race? He ran an extra 1/4F  and still won in hand.

Mr. Pletcher's high octane did not bring him to full potential for the classics but it appears he has now arrived.

26 Jul 2013 9:20 AM
Pedigree Ann

FA -

Vyjack is probably best suited to a mile in solid company. He isn't bred for any further and hasn't given any indication that he can overcome that breeding. Most of the time, you get what you breed for. Year after year you find big-moneybags owners astonished by this fact at Derby time; their agent/trainer assured them that this one was so athletic and classy it would be the exception.

26 Jul 2013 10:20 AM
Rusty Weisner

Anyone have anything in todays R9 at Saratoga?  

26 Jul 2013 11:38 AM
Rusty Weisner

Coldfacts,

Well Transparent is in obviously inferior company (and Midnight Taboo scratched).  That's the point.

And I'm surprised you don't mention his sire is Bernardini (so's the other one).  I thought they were supposed to be late developers.

26 Jul 2013 11:41 AM
Rusty Weisner

Forbidden Apple,

I wasn't going to play R6 but I like your Present Course at 5-1.  Throw out the race on heavy turf, factor in the layoff, while he class drop is the same or greater than others favored here.

By the way, why are all McLaughlin's runners Bernardinis?

26 Jul 2013 11:55 AM
Plod Boy Phil

re: Present Course

The April 5th race is the reason to like the horse as he set the pace of an Extreme Race for Closers.  Throw that one out and he's just a horse.

26 Jul 2013 12:32 PM
Forbidden Apple

Rusty,

Bernardini is not one of my favorite sires, but Darley is all in on this guy. Besides many homebreds, they go heavy in the sales for attractive Bernardini's. To date, I believe he is not even in the top 70 list of 2013 sires by earnings. I just found out today why they gelded Present Course. I heard that he was a ridgling and the thought is that he was uncomfortable because of one testicle being stuck inside. Keep an eye out for another attractive Bernardini at the Saratoga meet, his name is Pazolini.

As far as race 9 today, I think Quiet Ending is going to get an ideal pace and should be rolling late. I'm also using Sweet N Discreet, this filly is first time turf and brings a field best 91 beyer with her. She also breezed 46 4/5 last week on the turf and you get Rosario at 10-1. The problem is a bunch of other speed, with the right trip, this filly could be dangerous.

26 Jul 2013 12:35 PM
Ranagulzion

Coldfacts,

I still think that Verrazano is the best 3YO colt in Todd Pletcher's barn and probably the best 3YO in America period (his Derby performance is forgiveable since the form of the top runners has not really held up in the Triple Crown). In the Haskel Oxbow should follow him home. I don't think that Micromanage or Power Broker, as improved as they are, can match strides with these two. Golden Soul is also fancied to make the frame ahead of your two.

26 Jul 2013 1:59 PM
Rusty Weisner

Plod Boy Phil,

That sounds good to me.  I'll bet the horse.

26 Jul 2013 2:26 PM
Monarchos Matt

Wow, so we're still posting on this blog huh? A strange new blog appeared today...elaborate ramblings regarding the Del Mar Poly races and no mention of the bigger races at the Spa...not sure what is going on.

I like Dayatthespa to win as lone speed in the Diana. She should like the firm turf could get away from the field, two factors that should both work against the favorite. I think Centre Court bounces back on the firmer turf as well and gets the better of the favorite when the closers start rolling, to finish second. Give me Dream Peace to hit the board in 3rd.

The Jim Dandy is a super fun race...I'm leaning towards Code West there but could make an argument for many of them. Palice Malice figures to fire as well, I only see him getting better as the year goes on, just like his Daddy.

26 Jul 2013 4:45 PM
Rusty Weisner

Well, he had to win with one of those horses today.

I have $1 P3s:  Transparent/ALL/6,7,11

Transparent/4,8/6,7,11

26 Jul 2013 5:01 PM
Rusty Weisner

Monarchos Matt,

Nice to see you back.  Those are my two picks in the Diana, too.  Except I wouldn't be surprised if Centre Court ends up the favorite.

Just penny-ante stuff the past couple weekend, losing a little.  Warming up for a big weekend!

26 Jul 2013 5:18 PM
Rusty Weisner

I took the 8 here because I've seen a few Dale Romans horses who are very quick out of the gate on the turf go on to win many times consecutively.  But they do not like him.  20-1.  Eesh.

26 Jul 2013 5:20 PM
Rusty Weisner

They like the 5 on the tote.

26 Jul 2013 5:26 PM
Rusty Weisner

The P3 is usually a great beat.  The heavy favorite in this chalky sequence will pay $35-1, the next favorites $84-1 & $99-1.

26 Jul 2013 5:39 PM
Mary Zinke

I like Code West in the Jim Dandy, too, Matt.

I left a Cougar II comment at that new Unlocking Winners/Timeform blog.  Left you a question, KY.

26 Jul 2013 5:59 PM
Rusty Weisner

Shucks, that Professor Plum was ready with a good race but broke through the gate.  Wound up 4th the second time out of the gate.

26 Jul 2013 6:06 PM
Coldfacts

You cannot be serious! "Verrazano the best 3YO male in the US".

He narrowly defeated Normandy Invasion in the Wood. ND finished ahead of him  in the Derby a race considered to be the premier race for 3YOs.

How many G1 races has he won?

Does he lead the graded earning list for his peers?

The best 3YO colt in the US avoided the Preakness & Belmont.  He is probably best at hiding.

Your conclusion is not based on cold facts but as usual driven by emotions.

Golden Soul will only run well at CD that favors turf types.

27 Jul 2013 2:45 AM
Mary Zinke

I totally agree with Ranagulzion about Verrazano. The Derby was a maniac waste.  May have to wait for a death bed confession from the person who wrecked it as to why they did that. No further comment on Derby 2013 from me, until that day arrives, if ever.  As far as emotions go, if Verrazano somehow doesn't win, I will be in a weeklong snit. I like speed that comes easily. Not meaning dominating over crap, I mean how they look while running. Verrazano has that.

27 Jul 2013 4:44 AM
Rusty Weisner

Mary Zinke,

The Derby was a maniac waste that Oxbow and Palace Malice survived much better than Verrazano.  Both are fit and relatively rested.

Light and chalky on the Jim Dandy today:

R8-11 50-cent P4: 1,5,8/3,5/5/3,5,6,10,11,13

R8 $1 P3: 1,5,8/3,5/5

R9 $1 P3: 3,5/5/3,5,6,10,11,13

R9 $1 P3: 3,5/5/10 (to cover that Christiesborntorun who looks ready to start his turf sprint season by beating these)

In the Jim Dandy I'll play the obvious:  PM in $2 key tris over Mylute with Moreno and Code West.

Only spending $40 today.

27 Jul 2013 9:16 AM
Rusty Weisner

I'm going to single Oxbow in multi-race wagers and that's it.  On others the win possibilites are Oxbow, Verrazano, Code West, but that's not worth playing.  So I'll stick with Oxbow.

I agree that Golden Soul is in the wrong element and is suspect, and I think the same of Micromanagement.  I won't make bets for them to pick up the pieces underneath.

The Monmouth card is great.  Both P4s and the P5 are playable.  I think Joyful Victory and Glamour Puss are singles, might try to bet against Take Charge Indy (I would give Norman A. and Hymn book a chance), but may single there, too.  Another easy race is the turf w/Silver Max, Swift Warrior and maybe Hudson Steele.

Advice and warn-offs are welcome.

By the way, I have a terrible time figuring some of these conditional claiming and allowance races where you always see 3-yos with high Beyers and low odds on the ML.  I try to stay away from them in claiming races against older, but I find it really hard to pick the winner in these races.

27 Jul 2013 9:25 AM
Rusty Weisner

I like Swift warrior best in the Oceanport, but I'll also give Howe great a chance along with Silver Max and Hudson Steele.  Second back and he didn't seem to have a chance chasing the winner last out, where they went 1-2-3-4 all the way around the track.

27 Jul 2013 10:08 AM
Coldfacts

Mary,

The best 3YO male in the US by far is Orb.

He won the premier race for 3YO.

He is the only 3YO to make the board in all 3 TC races.

He leads the graded earnings list for 3YOs.

He is the only 3YO that has won 3 consecutive graded races including 2 consecutive G1s.

He defeated S/Bobby the 2YO champion; Violence the winter book favorite for the KD and about a dozen other graded stakes winners.

He is one of three horses that undertook the ultimate test for 3YOs (Triple Crown)However, he is the only one to make the board on all 3 occasions.

Orb's resume compared to that of Verrazano is cheese to chalk.

Certainly a 3YO that is going to be labeled the best at this time of the year, should at least have the PPs to support same. No rational thoroughbred enthusiast can with any conviction label Verrazano as such.

Emotionally driven conclusions are invariably devoid of cold facts.

27 Jul 2013 10:14 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Saturday Saratoga

R4) 2 Parnelli - was in chase mode behind the w-w winner of a modestly speed favoring Flow last out. While the race is not enough to merit upgrade status on it's own, it does support his upgraded run in the prior turf race behind the impressive 'vs Plod Winner' I'll Call at Keeneland.  First Lasix brings big effort.

27 Jul 2013 10:21 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Coldfacts-

All the exclaims are merely subjective views and offer little in the way of an edge in actually cashing tickets.

FYI, Orb was off the board in the Preakness.

Oxbow produced the best overall TC effort as he recorded one win and a second while the 'great' Orb could muster just one win and a third,  the latter of which came with the benefit of an ideal scenario for a deep closer, yet he was unable to pass the pace pressing/setting Oxbow.

In the words of Sgt. Friday, "just the facts (m'am)".

27 Jul 2013 10:31 AM
Coldfacts

Forbidden Apple,

I see Mr. Kiaran McLaughlin came away with zero wins on Friday. Well, to be fair he lost one in the stewards room.

His part donkey Transparent was unfortunate. Even when this trainer wins he looses.

It is inconceivable that these well bred horses can be so average. It is therefore reasonable to conclude that fault lies in their training/conditioning programs.

Darley appears to have a very nice Tapit 2YO that finished 2nd on Thursday. The trip was definitely too short for that one.

Bernardini is a young stallion that I think is being overbred.

When Street Cry experienced the level of success with his first crop i.e., Street Sense, Zenyatta, Street Boss etc., he was bred to almost 170 mares in each of the next two years. The quality of his horses has declined.

That said I will be placing a wager on Bashaar today. He worked a 1:00 handily at AP and is being ridden for 1st time by a high % rider. 9F is ideal for his running style.

27 Jul 2013 10:36 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Coldfacts -

I have to agree with you regarding McLaughlin.  Any trainer that wins at a 24% clip while using Lasix far less than the average clearly needs to get into a new line of work.

Brilliant.

27 Jul 2013 10:51 AM
Mary Zinke

Dude, It ain't like I'm sittin' here with a My Little Pony collection crying if the pretty horsey doesn't win, Coldfacts.  

1."Best" U.S. male at this point is up for grabs.

2.Premier race for 3 year olds was ruined this year. Freakin slop-everyone dealt with that. Freakin other thing--sorry can't discuss. I don't actually enjoy getting verbally beat up that badly.

3.These I'll lump together, on Orb.  Coldfacts, I used to engage more in putting other horses down to build up my favorite, but I try not do that any more. Orb is a very good colt, and record wise, of course I see your point. Ran in all 3 Triple Crown races, itm in all three, took the horrible wish I could forget it, awaiting death bed confession, Derby.  As for beating both Violence and Shanghai Bobby, yes he did. One retired from injury out of the race with Orb--Violence, one has not raced since also due to injury--Shanghai Bobby, although with Bobby, I thought he was vulnerable, distance-wise in the Florida Derby. And I wasn't talking about record anyway. I'm talking about how(visually) they run and I don't like it when one that runs so powerfully in my estimation(on chapter 1 compared to you guys/gals)does not, so get it about the snit?

Another thing is, don't forget that if you think Verrazano beat "no one" then don't call the same "no ones" someones when your favorite beats the same horses.  If that happens.

27 Jul 2013 11:03 AM
Rusty Weisner

I like two in R7 on the Haskell card.  D'Wildcard had to run into a slow pace in a race that wound up fast (88) and was gaining after others quit.  Timeless Indy was much second best last out, in the fastest race any of these ran in (93 Beyer).  Otherwise, there are five others I see competitive here.

27 Jul 2013 11:04 AM
Rusty Weisner

Coldfacts,

Romansh won after that DQ.  He was the other half of McLaughlin's entry.  That's a win.  Scalding errors.

27 Jul 2013 11:07 AM
Mary Zinke

Edit:  hit the board, not itm in all three Tc races for Orb.  Please don't swarm on me--it's early.

27 Jul 2013 11:16 AM
Rusty Weisner

I have to weigh in on Orb.  Some people said the long campaign got to him in the Belmont.  I think he ran to form, however, both there and in the Preakness.  Just look at who hit the board in the Derby with him:  Golden Soul and Revolutionary.  They've run back to form in the exact same way.  The best horses in the Derby were all scalded by the pace: Palace Malice, Oxbow and Normandy Invasion (a never to be answered question if it was pace or pedigree).  If not for the injury Normandy Invasion would have made the exacta in the Preakness.  I'll be betting against Orb in the Travers.  He's "just a horse"...as they say.

27 Jul 2013 11:19 AM
Mary Zinke

I'm at that new blog.

No, Pete's not coming back, in case anyone didn't read my comment from a few days ago, above.  

27 Jul 2013 11:20 AM
Forbidden Apple

Rusty,

Romansh is trained by Albertrani.

Brabbham quit, I can accept that. Present Course was tucked in behind a slow pace and then down the stretch Irad Ortiz tried to bull his way through. He smashed the horse to his outside and then completely cut off Uncle Gare on the hedge. It was another poor ride in my opinion. And then Ortiz continued his poor riding in the Curlin where he was clear, but completely cut off Proud Strike. As you could see, Transparent was much the best. Onward and upward to the Travers! My crysatl ball is predicting a new rider in the future.

27 Jul 2013 11:30 AM
Rusty Weisner

Mary Zinke,

Who's Pete?

Maybe we can use the other thread for Haskell picks?  

What do you think, folks?

27 Jul 2013 11:33 AM
Forbidden Apple

Cold Facts,

Come back from space man, you are way out of line with your continued comments regarding the McLaughlin stable. Were you sleeping through the 2012 Saratoga meet? It's still early, this stable will make plenty of noise before the meet is over.

27 Jul 2013 11:33 AM
Forbidden Apple

Plod Boy Phil,

I respect your opinions, but you have to reconsider your thoughts on Ortiz after yesterday. Simply watch his rides on Present Course and Transparent and then tell me what you think of his ability as a jockey.

Regarding Parnelli, everyone in the barn is on his bandwagon today. First time lasix and no Irad Ortiz are enough for me to play him. I also think King Balthasar has a big chance at wiring the field in the 7th on the inner turf. He has improved with every start and he was a first time gelding last out.

27 Jul 2013 11:39 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Mary -

I consider 'hitting the board' as in the top 3.  If someone bets a horse 'across the board' and it runs 4th, should they bother going to collect ?

Good luck today, especially if you are voting.

27 Jul 2013 11:42 AM
Coldfacts

Silver Tongued: I had my eyes on this colt early in the 3YO season. He dropped off my radar but I really like him in the OH Derby.

A son of Flatter out of mare that made 2 starts and earned $244.  I love a horses from unraced and lightly race mares. Hopefully he will not drop too far behind and can use his closing kick to get home in front.

27 Jul 2013 11:50 AM
Rusty Weisner

Oops.  My apologies, Coldfacts.  

27 Jul 2013 11:58 AM
Plod Boy Phil

FA -

Jockeys,  like the rest of us, have good runs and bad.  The day will not arrive when I choose not to wager on an upgraded runner because of which courageous little human with a helmet and a stick is sitting on their back.

As for Perfect Course, if he was good enough, I think he gets to the spot in time and runs on - in my opinion he wasn't, and thus, he didn't. I would normally defer judgment until after the Flow figure was in,  but since PC was ahead of the eventual winner in the early stages of the race, the best I can do is give a neutral grade for his effort. This of course, reduces him to 'just a horse' status.

27 Jul 2013 12:04 PM
Rusty Weisner

Nearly all the turf routes at Monmouth are at 8.5f.  Any horses 10 or outside I'm on the fence about I'll toss.  Stats are 4-72 from posts 9 out this meet.  Not usually a factor I weight heavily.

27 Jul 2013 12:09 PM
Mary Zinke

Damn, I should have gotten the epi-pen ready. My correction to hit the board wasn't fast enough.  I had to comb My Little Pony's tail.

27 Jul 2013 12:18 PM
Forbidden Apple

Race 8: #5 Kris Royal will be rolling late down the lane for the win. He has a win at Saratoga, very well bred for grass and he picks up John Velazquez. Not to mention Lopresti is one of the best trainers on the grounds and his horse is second off from a long layoff. Exactas with #1 Plainview and #2 Sachem Spirit. Daily Double with #5 Centre Court and #2 Stephanie's Kitten.

Race 9: #5 Centre Court is my top pick with her stalking style and two good efforts previously at Saratoga. Exacta with #2 Stephanie's Kitten and Daily Double with #8 Mylute.

Race 10: #8 Mylute is my top pick in the Jim Dandy. I'm hoping someone softens up Palice Malice and sets it up for Mylute's closing kick. Exactas with #5 Palice Malice and #1 Bashaar.

27 Jul 2013 12:30 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Mary-

I should have addressed that 'board' response to Coldfacts,  since it was he who was hanging his hat on Orb 'hitting the board' in all three TCRs.

27 Jul 2013 12:33 PM
Coldfacts

FA,

I hope you are correct. I have lost a lot of money on KM's horses and I am a bitter man.

27 Jul 2013 12:40 PM
Coldfacts

Plod Boy Phil,

I feel obliged to advise you that because you consider hitting the board as one of the top 3 positions, does not make it so.

There are four positions that are displayed on the board i.e., 1st, 2nd ,3rd and 4th.

When a horse finishes off the board it means it finished either fifth or lower.

How often have you either read or heard the quote he/she was the chalk and did not hit the board? That quote does not restrict the board to the top 3.

There is an exotic wager known is an exotic wager known as the Superfactor. The horses that combine for this wager are displayed in order on the board as opposed to a high 5 that includes a horse that finishes off the board.

Based on your assessment of on the board all totes should be modified to reflect only first 3 places.

As usual I look forward to your informed response.

One Love!

27 Jul 2013 1:02 PM
Coldfacts

Plod Boy Phil,

"since it was he who was hanging his hat on Orb 'hitting the board' in all three TCRs"

Was Orb's number displayed on the tote board immediately after Mylute's number in the Preakness?

The correct answer to the above question will put to rest the issue of on/off the board.

27 Jul 2013 1:07 PM
Coldfacts

Mary,

Horse Racing Terminology regards Off the board -  as a horse that fails to finish in the money. This definition is very ambiguous. There is no specific dividend paid on a horse that finishes 4th. However, this horse does secure the 4th place portion of the purse and consequently dose not finish out of the money as it relates to the purses. In addition, the dividend paid for a superfactor includes the 4th place finisher.

When I specified that Orb finished on the board in all TCRs, he provided a return in the form of a dividend directly and in combination with others in all three races.

He returned a direct dividend  in the WPS and contributed to the Tri & Super in the Derby; he contributed to the super dividend in the Preakness and the Show, Tri & Super dividend in the Belmont.  He was therefore was not totally out of the money as it relate to dividend in all 3 races and therefore was not off the board based on the above Terminology..

27 Jul 2013 1:31 PM
Mary Zinke

deargodalmightygeeziz, Thanks to anyone who clarified what in the money and hitting the board mean.  It was a freakin mistake because seriously I forgot Orb's record exactly, in the early(to me) a.m., not that I don't know those terms. Now, I'm going to go ask mom and dad how a gelding is made.

27 Jul 2013 2:09 PM
Ranagulzion

Coldfacts,

You may say that Orb is arguably the best 3YO colt based upon his body of work so far but Verrazano is not far off and a win in the Haskel will make his case arguably as strong as Orb's since the Derby was kindof a funny race this year (meaning that Verrazano shouldn't lose too many marks for that off the board performance).

27 Jul 2013 3:17 PM
ROBBIEJOE25

How much confidence does anyone have in Verrazano going a mile and quarter? To me the best three year old will win either the Travers,Jockey Club,Pacific and or the Breeders Cup.....

27 Jul 2013 5:42 PM
Rusty Weisner

Stank it up today with Centre Court, but I wasn't the only one.  Too bad I won't win any money today when I had a cinch in Palace Malice.  Have a lousy DD live with 5,6,10 in the last to get my betting money back.  Also those three in boxed exactas.  I'll presumably lose and be out $50 today.

But, tomorrow!....the Haskell.

27 Jul 2013 6:18 PM
Little Bill

The term "hit the board" was coined long before exotic wagers. Are we going to redefine the term as the wagers progress?

27 Jul 2013 6:30 PM
Rusty Weisner

I bid adieu...Adieu!

I'm going to the other thread for Haskell day.

27 Jul 2013 9:14 PM
Rusty Weisner

Regret:  after Dayatthespa scratched I might have substituted Laughing on my tickets for front-running speed...

27 Jul 2013 9:27 PM
Pedigree Ann

Hi - guys! It's Sunday and the Haskell challenge is off and running. That's an on-line contest, similar to Survival at the Shore. So far I have 2 winners and 3 seconds and am waiting out an enquiry to see if another winner will be DQ-ed. Unfortunately, I can't bet on contest picks - I think it jinxes them.

28 Jul 2013 3:01 PM
Mary Zinke

That new blog does not appear, so just wanted to say, although, yes, it's biased, I got one of those HTG type of positive notes about Fury for r6 at DM tomorrow. Wine Police(now a gelding) and She Digs Me a 1/2 to Mylute also return in this race.

31 Jul 2013 5:13 PM
KY VET

hey mary....its a mini breeders cup day for me aug 9th....both of my horses run......you can go in the winners circle at santa rosa friday if ya wanna......lol...horse #1 going a mile here.....

01 Aug 2013 5:35 PM
KY VET

im serious mary.....i need someone to shake the all time winning jocks' hand......he commited to my horse a month out......

01 Aug 2013 5:38 PM
Mary Zinke

What a very lovely thought, KY. Unfortunately, I must wait until the Breeders' Cup for my next out of state trip.  How about if I'm there, wishing you luck and congrats, in spirit?  That's very good news about the jockey riding your horse!

02 Aug 2013 12:19 AM
Mary Zinke

Who are you trying to throw off the trail?  This does not compute.

04 Aug 2013 6:26 PM

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