Brisnet.com's Ultimate Guide To Letting A Wagering Menu Work For You & a $200 Contest

An even money shot who you like but don't love can be a daunting part of any Pick 4 sequence. Winning 50% of the time means they lose 50% of the time, too. If you have two such horses in a sequence then it's as likely that they both lose than both win (25%, 3-to-1 either way).

So how do you make money in this scenario? By letting a track's wagering menu work for you.

For Past Performances of all races discussed in this post as well as full-card daily reports for Belmont Park and Keeneland visit the Blood Horse store.

Let's take the Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes on Saturday at Keeneland, which features champion Groupie Doll. If you think her Presque Isle Masters win represents a return to top form then she wins this easily. If you think her Masters performance is now her ceiling then either of the inside horses--Judy The Beauty, Purely Hot, and Gypsy Robin--are capable of running with her.

To me, it's an either or proposition. Either you think Groupie Doll is moving forward and she's a single or you don't and she's not. The great thing about a horizontal player at Keeneland is you can play it both ways even on a small budget by singling Groupie Doll in the $.50 Pick 5 (races 6-10) and $.50 Pick 4 (6-9) and going deeper in the rolling $.50 Pick 3s.

True, you give up the chance at a four or even five-figure payoff by beating an odds on horse in a Pick 4 or Pick 5, but you still give yourself and out with the cheaper Pick 3s and the chance to hit a couple of them since they roll.

Wise Dan as the heavy favorite in race 9 is a different animal. It's an important race as the final leg of the Groupie Doll Pick 4 and the penultimate leg of the Pick 5 and late Pick 4, and Wise Dan will probably be be heavier in the multis than even in the win pool.

I can understand why because the only horse I like to possibly beat him is Silver Max, and do I like him enough to double the cost of my tickets? Not really. Wise Dan is the fastest horse in the race, likes Keeneland, and has an outrageous Brisnet.com PRIME POWER advantage.

We're somewhat wired to think that Pick 4s and Pick 5s should pay fantastic, but value is value, and it's a competitive enough sequence elsewhere that prudent decision making can lead to an OK score in either sequence even with Wise Dan winning.

For Past Performances of all races discussed in this post as well as full-card reports for Belmont, Keeneland, and Santa Anita, visit the Blood Horse store.

CONTEST!

I hinted at a contest in the comments of last week's post, and I've decided to do a PRESS YOUR LUCK-style game. Here are the rules:

You can post one horse in each comment. If you are the first person to mention this horse and it wins you get three points. If you copy someone else's pick and it wins you get one point. If your pick loses you get no points. You can only pick one horse per comment and can not post another pick until someone else comments after you. You can have a maximum of four picks, so a perfect score is 12.

The winner gets $100 if you win with a score of 12 I'll double it. If multiple people score 12 then you split the $200.

Good luck!

111 Comments

Leave a Comment:

Mud Route

Say.

04 Oct 2013 11:33 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Well done guys.

04 Oct 2013 11:45 AM
Mud Route

Wise Dan.

04 Oct 2013 11:54 AM
-Keelerman

This sounds like fun! For my first pick, I'll take Wise Dan in the Shadwell Turf Mile.

04 Oct 2013 12:02 PM
Rusty Weisner

I think readers have already pointed out the poor design of this contest by shouting out "Wise Dan!" as quickly as possible.

How about scoring this the same way these contests, aka horses races, are really scored, i.e., by money?

04 Oct 2013 12:17 PM
Mud Route

Groupie Doll.

04 Oct 2013 12:42 PM
-Keelerman

In today's Phoenix Stakes at Keeneland, I'll take a chance with Reload. Although his last two races haven't been very good, he did win impressively at Keeneland during the spring meet, and I'm hopeful that Shug McGaughey has him back in top form.

04 Oct 2013 1:00 PM
Monarchos Matt

Well I posted Say a couple hours ago on the older blog before this went up...does that count? Anyway, let me reiterate: Say wins.

04 Oct 2013 1:17 PM
Monarchos Matt

I think the real play here is to forget about the races involving Groupie Doll and Wise Dan entirely and focus on the Double, unless of course you think either will lose. Singling both of them in the Pick 4 theoretically would barely double your payout (1.6 * 1.4 = 2.24) and in reality it may even be less than that. Considering you still have to get through those two races that looks like terrible risk/return to me and I'd rather just play the double:

Say, Amazonas/ Solitary Ranger, Smarty's Echo, General Jack, Conquest Titan

Sticking with the Euro angle on turf until our girls prove me wrong...

04 Oct 2013 1:27 PM
Little Bill

Playing two races at Keeneland today.

Race 6) #7 Villandry. Pros- His past races say he's good enough. Cons- Obviously had or has physical issues, long layoff.

Race 8) #9 Hoofit. He's not a win machine but I'm looking for the cut back to give him enough kick to get there. Lotta want the lead type in this field.

04 Oct 2013 1:41 PM
Little Bill

My bad, broke a rule already. Hoofit.

04 Oct 2013 1:47 PM
Plod Boy Phil

I do have a question,

Is the Contest in play through Sunday at all t'bred tracks ?

04 Oct 2013 1:51 PM
Mary Zinke

Jamaica: Five Iron.

04 Oct 2013 2:03 PM
Mary Zinke

TCoA: Groupie Doll.

04 Oct 2013 2:05 PM
Mary Zinke

Just to be totally different, I'll take Summer Front in the Shadwell. Y'all can have you 1 extra point, except for whoever said Wise Dan first.

04 Oct 2013 2:09 PM
Mary Zinke

Cannot post another pick until someone else comments?  KY, come here and be mean in between my picks, please.  Now I have to repost them.

04 Oct 2013 2:11 PM
Rusty Weisner

Mary Zinke,

Maybe we can invite Rube Goldberg to comment.

04 Oct 2013 2:25 PM
Little Bill

I guess I broke that rule too. Hoofit.

04 Oct 2013 2:33 PM
EJXD2

Rusty: If you want to put up your own money you can make the rules.

Just like Press Your Luck, every player might know the answer, but the first one in gets the 3 points. Same goes with this. Wise Dan is obvious. The quickest person gets rewarded. Or you could pick someone else.

Thanks everyone for playing and reading. Enjoy the races!

04 Oct 2013 2:37 PM
Mary Zinke

TCoA: Groupie Doll.  

04 Oct 2013 2:42 PM
Mary Zinke

No making fun of Ed's contest rules. It's like Simon Says :)

04 Oct 2013 2:49 PM
Little Bill

Kee 9) #3 Sweetsoutherndame. At least with the horses I pick there's no rush to post.

04 Oct 2013 3:07 PM
Mary Zinke

Frizette: Tea Time.

04 Oct 2013 3:10 PM
Monarchos Matt

Futurity: Solitary Ranger

04 Oct 2013 3:38 PM
Mary Zinke

Shadwell: Summer Front.

04 Oct 2013 3:50 PM
Mary Zinke

Exceeds contest entries, but these are my picks in order for the SA Sprint Championship: Trinni, Centralintel(l)igence, Roman Threat, Glodencents.

04 Oct 2013 3:54 PM
Monarchos Matt

Schaefer: Neck N Neck

Race has tons of speed (a lot of it cheap) and could set up for him well coming off a long layoff. Horse for the course!

04 Oct 2013 4:15 PM
Monarchos Matt

Schaefer: Neck N Neck

Race has tons of speed (a lot of it cheap) and could set up for him well coming off a long layoff. Horse for the course!

04 Oct 2013 4:15 PM
Ranagulzion

Mary Zinke 04 Oct 2013 3:50 PM

Summer Front should be the most formidable foe Wise Dan has faced all season therefore the reigning HOTY is expected to sparkle even more. Enjoy.

For the Champagne Stakes if Strong Mandate is able to dispatch Ride On Curlin with consumate ease, similar to the manner of his Hopeful victory, I'll get on board his wagon for next season's Kentucky Derby but I'll let him beat me here as Ride On Curlin looks like a very good sort.

04 Oct 2013 5:48 PM
Mud Route

General Jack.

04 Oct 2013 7:54 PM
Mary Zinke

Indiana Derby: Holy Lute, Power Broker, Uncaptured, Micromanage.

04 Oct 2013 8:10 PM
Monarchos Matt

Indiana Derby: Power Broker.

04 Oct 2013 8:36 PM
EJXD2

Any Thoroughbred race in U.S. or Canada through Sunday is eligible. Results will be official on TUESDAY

04 Oct 2013 9:23 PM
Betty S

Jamacai-Admiral Kitten

04 Oct 2013 9:44 PM
chare889

Bourbon Stakes (Keeneland): Boji Moon

04 Oct 2013 9:45 PM
Betty S

Recepta

04 Oct 2013 10:09 PM
Betty S

Recepta

04 Oct 2013 10:09 PM
chare889

City of Hope Mile: No Jet Lag

04 Oct 2013 10:24 PM
Racingfan

Goldencents

04 Oct 2013 10:40 PM
Betty S

Sorry about the double post on Recepta(above)??? Next one is Goldencents in Santa Anita sprint cap.

04 Oct 2013 10:47 PM
Colt45ss

Sweet reason frizette lock of the weekend and the coronation of another star

04 Oct 2013 10:53 PM
Kipster

Fiftyshadesofhay

05 Oct 2013 2:09 AM
Kipster

Uncaptured

05 Oct 2013 2:17 AM
Kipster

Stormy Len

05 Oct 2013 2:21 AM
Kipster

Strong Mandate

05 Oct 2013 2:23 AM
Brontexx

The 7th at Keeneland Dayatthespa.Its 8:34am Eastern time when I post so if someone else is listed as posting this one race before me,I would think this is rigged.

05 Oct 2013 8:34 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Mary -

Summer Front runs his lifetime best today. His last two are better than they look on paper or video.

GL

05 Oct 2013 9:15 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Contest:

I imagine there will be several players that accumulate 12 pts.  I would imagine that the prize $ gets split or a Mutual total tie-breaker will be in place.

* There are more than 100 races scheduled to be run today - winners everywhere.

Good luck and enjoy.

05 Oct 2013 9:34 AM
Little Bill

Paranoid much?

05 Oct 2013 10:45 AM
Pedigree Ann

In the past, the Keeneland  grass course was death to front-runners in general. Could look home and hosed at the 8th pole only to be swallowed up late by the peleton. Last spring, as I recall, it didn't play that way so much. Anybody in position to watch closely this weekend? I'm in Michigan with the hubby for business/social trip. Time not my own.

05 Oct 2013 11:10 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Fugue -

what race...?

05 Oct 2013 11:10 AM
Mary Zinke

Thanks, Phil. GL to you, too. I'll be at Turf Paradise's opening day with one of my sons.

LA Woman: Great Hot, Sister Kate, EP, Conkate.

05 Oct 2013 11:28 AM
-Keelerman

For my third contest pick, I'll take Obviously in the City of Hope Mile.

05 Oct 2013 11:55 AM
Mary Zinke

I hope I'm allowed the switch if Five Iron runs in the Hawthorne Derby instead of the Jamaica. If he runs at Hawthorne, he's my win pick.

05 Oct 2013 12:03 PM
-Keelerman

For my final selection, I'll take Charming Kitten in the Hawthorne Derby.

05 Oct 2013 12:14 PM
Brontexx

Ist at Belmont Callana its now 12:14pm eastern

05 Oct 2013 12:15 PM
Brontexx

Ist at Keenland Strong Humor now 12:40 Eastern

05 Oct 2013 12:40 PM
Plod Boy Phil

too funny

05 Oct 2013 12:59 PM
Little Bill

I'm with ya Phil.

05 Oct 2013 1:16 PM
Little Bill

Since Five Iron scratched out of the Jamaica Joha Looks to be lone on the lead. I like it. If Mills has any gate speed today would be a good time to get position into the turn.

05 Oct 2013 1:22 PM
Little Bill

Kinda forgot about Ramsey's rabbit in that race.

05 Oct 2013 1:28 PM
Plod Boy Phil

CONTEST PLAY 1

Saturday Hawthorne: Race 1

1 Ambitious Dancer

05 Oct 2013 1:40 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Fugue-

I was gonna mention that, but figured he was out.

I'm most inspired by the 4 Balance the Books there - his last two were easily the best of his brief career.  More to come.  

05 Oct 2013 1:50 PM
Plod Boy Phil

re: BtB

Neutral win in his last followed an impressive 'vs Flow' closing rush in the Solar Splendor.

05 Oct 2013 2:59 PM
Little Bill

Balance the Books- His only bad races are easy to throw out.

05 Oct 2013 3:08 PM
Brontexx

And now for my Last pick 0-2 so far Romance the Devil 1st at Hawthorne

05 Oct 2013 3:19 PM
Betty S

10th at Keeneland-Ballistic Sue

05 Oct 2013 3:22 PM
Brontexx

Just in case my post didnt get thru 1st at Hawthorne Romance the Devil 3:33pm Eastern

05 Oct 2013 3:33 PM
Brontexx

Who picked Judy the Beauty to beat Groupie Doll Velazquez rode masterfully moving when Groupie Doll did I think he found out that Groupie Doll does not like to have horses outside her or to be in between horses.Once she was in between with Judy outside of her no punch for the champ.

05 Oct 2013 3:58 PM
Brontexx

EJXD2  the rules dont cover scratches

05 Oct 2013 5:20 PM
Brontexx

I am dropping Romance the Devil 1st at Hawthorne, because 1 Only 4 horses are running changes the way the race is run 2 I want one more pick to have fun with.

5:57 PM Eastern.

05 Oct 2013 5:57 PM
Brontexx

My best pick Dayatthespa finished 2nd leaving me 0 for 3 but nobody is knocking the cover off the ball either so from what I have read on here no one has picked anything.12 points what a joke try 3.

05 Oct 2013 7:00 PM
Mary Zinke

I know. My total is zero points. Came out on the very slight plus side money wise and got two tee shirts that can be worn almost no where.  They say, "The Most Exciting Ride In Town", and I don't want everyone to think I'm advertising.

06 Oct 2013 12:49 AM
Brontexx

Mary Im saying the whole board has zero points and the contest seems to be a farce.

06 Oct 2013 4:34 AM
Mary Zinke

Why, Brontexx, because no one got any points? That's seems pretty easy to figure out then that they didn't pick winners.  

06 Oct 2013 5:03 AM
Coldfacts

Mary Zinke,

A T shirt reflecting "The Most Exciting Ride In Town", cannot be viewed any other way unless it also displays the what is to be ridden.

You are not only feisty but also ultra funny.

06 Oct 2013 8:43 AM
Coldfacts

Ranagulzion,

“Summer Front should be the most formidable foe Wise Dan has faced all season”

Summer Front has won 7 races to date and Silver Max has won 10 with a win streak of six races at one point.

Summer Front has only won at the G3 level while Silver Max has won three times at the G2 Level.

While Summer Front finished ahead of Silver Max in the 2012 Secretariat he is clearly not the better of the two. Silver Max contested the 2012 Secretariat less than 30 day after winning the 10F Virginia Derby.

The section of your post that indicated that WD should defeat Summer Front handily was correct but he was not the most formidable foe.  

See my submission under the Blog titled “TimeformUS Weekend Plays: The Champagne and the Shadwell Turf Mile” and you will see my assessment of the formidable foes.

06 Oct 2013 9:01 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Mary-

Happy to hear of an enjoyable day at TuP.

Summer Front over-matched. My fault.

I have four picks to make today.

06 Oct 2013 9:47 AM
Brontexx

Mary it is easy to figure out.Also I asked about what happens in the event of a scratch yesterday on my 5:20 post but EJXD2 never replied.

06 Oct 2013 10:41 AM
Pedigree Ann

I don't think any of us could have known that the 'Shadwell Turf Mile' would end up being 1 1/16 on the poly. Kee used to almost never take races off the turf because the main track dirt was worse than than turf when it took a lot of rain.

I hope we have heard the last of the calls to run Dan in the Classic. He's a better horse on the turf these days and the mile is his best distance.

What a win by Treve in the Arc. I was rooting for Orfevre - last year he moved too soon and this year he was buried at a critical movement and couldn't move until it was too late. Still, 2 seconds in the Arc to 3yo fillies, who get a significant weigh concession (120 lbs. vs. 131 for older males), isn't chopped liver. Not a good year for the Brits or Irish, with French horses 1 & 3, Japanese horses 2 & 4 and a big gap back to the rest of them.

06 Oct 2013 10:45 AM
Plod Boy Phil

CONTEST PLAY 1 (original #1 scratch)

Monmouth

Race 6

5 Poppa's Pick

06 Oct 2013 11:18 AM
Coldfacts

Pedigree Ann,

Did That filly run with Lasix? I guess there is no internal bleeding in Europe.

06 Oct 2013 11:26 AM
Mary Zinke

I have no idea abut the apostrophe s in my comment last night.

Good luck today to whoever is still in the contest.

EJXD2, aka Ed, is one of the busiest, most sought after men in all of America(and the known World), so he cannot always respond immediately. In the event of a scratch, you could have tried again, like I did, then awaited a ruling.

06 Oct 2013 11:51 AM
Plod Boy Phil

another scratch....CONTEST PLAY 1

Monmouth Race 5 11 Arctic Missile

06 Oct 2013 12:35 PM
Plod Boy Phil

CONTEST PLAY 2

Hawthorne Race 5 4 Beertent Baby

06 Oct 2013 1:53 PM
Plod Boy Phil

CONTEST PLAY 3

Woodbine Race 7 7 Unwinding at Work

06 Oct 2013 3:26 PM
Plod Boy Phil

CONTEST PLAY 4

Belmont Race 7 1 Praetereo

06 Oct 2013 3:49 PM
Brontexx

5:11PM eastern my last pick in the contest Belmont race 11 Wild Billum.

06 Oct 2013 5:12 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Santa Anita

Race 8

8 Golden Celestial - recorded a 'vs zip Win' in her debut. Rare.

06 Oct 2013 7:45 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Where's a 'ladder' when you need one ?

06 Oct 2013 8:02 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Ed-

Thanks for running the Contest.

07 Oct 2013 8:43 AM
EJXD2

Worked my way through all these, and I found three people who selected 1 winner. So I have a three-way tie for 3 points. Anyone think s/he has more than 3 points?

07 Oct 2013 10:36 AM
Ranagulzion

Coldfacts,

The switch to polytrack knocked out my analysis regarding Summer Front, although it didn't change my expectation concerning Wise Dan. Silver Max put in a career best effort to win that race. Regardless of Silver Max's statistics I regarded Summer Front as the better horse at a mile on grass. Silver Max was one of the top 3YOs on the turf last year and is obviously much improved this year.  He could possible "bounce" next outing off this huge effort but I hope they all show up for the Breeder's Cup Mile.

07 Oct 2013 2:00 PM
Ranagulzion

Coldfacts,

Your assessment of Silver Max's chances against Wise Dan was spot on. At least you could have told us that it was going to rain heavily and that the race would be switched to Polytrack (LOL).

For the benefit of your fans and secret admirers (KY Vet included) I'll quote your post:

"Silver Max has won an amazing 10 races. When he met Wise Dan in the 2012 renewal of the Shadwell Mile he had won 6 of his last 7 races. In those 7 races he covered 62F with his last two prior to the Shadwell Mile being the 10F Virginia Derby and Secretariat. It is therefore no wonder he got killed. At the end of his 3YO season he was given 7 months off. He must now be a bigger and stronger horse. He enters the 2013 renewal of the SM covering 20F less. This colt will be tough as well. Wise Dan better be on his best game or he will join Royal Delta as another 1-5 flop".

That was pretty amazing ...like a 99/1 shot winning. Lets see you do something like that come breeders cup time.

By the way, that AP Indy colt, Honor Code has got to be something special, running so impressively in the Champagne.  I'm putting him at the top of my 2014 Kentucky Derby watch list ...can you believe it?  I have a very good feeling about this colt ...he could be the one to defy the AP Indy late development syndrome and capture the derby next year.  I also like that Shug plans to skip the BC Juvenile with him and point for the Remsen instead. Very interesting. I really like this 2YO even though Storm Cat close up in his pedigree on the Dam side makes me a little apprehensive ...anyway we'll see.  

07 Oct 2013 2:27 PM
Rusty Weisner

Ranagulzion,

I like it, too.  The BC Juvenile has not been a Derby path the past two years and is less so with the points system (which I'm a fan of).  

07 Oct 2013 3:53 PM
Pedigree Ann

Well, back from central Michigan and will get to see races on a big screen instead of the laptop. And time to hit the PPs for Wed at Kee. Nice day today - hope it holds and the turf course dries out.

08 Oct 2013 11:47 AM
Coldfacts

Ranagulzion,

The connections of Wise Dan could have scratched him when the race was taken off the Turf.

He has contested 8 races on synthetic to date and has won 5. If the results of my research is correct, Silver Max made his first start on a synthetic surface in the Shadwell Mile.

The advantage on the surface belongs to Wise Dan. It should be noted that Wise Dan defeated Silver Max on both previous occasion they met.

Wise Dan loss was due to the rain and the surface change. Interesting! How many of his opponents finished ahead of him? The records reflect one. It therefore means the elements and surface did not prevent him form defeating 8 other opponents but it prevented him from defeating one.

I will not request an explanation as the spin will be just too much to handle.

Despite your emotions, you are knowledgeable enough to understand that a talented 3YO put away for 7 months will return bigger and stronger and more capable of defeating older horses.

The 6YO Cigar's 16 race win streak was brought  to an end by the 5YO Rare and Go. Subsequent that defeat he was again defeated by the 4YO Skip Away  in the JCGC.

Zenyatta suffered her only loss as a 6YO to the 4YO Blame.

Are you seriously implying that a 4YO that has won 10 races from a 1 1/6F to 10F is incapable of defeating an aging champion with 25 races under his belt without the help of the elements.?

08 Oct 2013 6:56 PM
Pedigree Ann

Coldfacts - 'aging', at 6? He's a gelding, not a stallion who has to worry about gaining the stallion crest and stallion weight in the fore-end. Good geldings can keep going for longer, in general, than entires, viz. Kelso, John Henry, Chindi, etc.

09 Oct 2013 10:11 AM
Mary Zinke

Saw the workout. What do you think? Find a farm, find a new vocation?

09 Oct 2013 2:05 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Hawthorne R5

4 Brewmistress - closed impressively vs Extremes for Speed in her last two.  Note: She's a chronic Board hitter.

10 Oct 2013 12:56 PM
KY VET

mary...was that for me? the old guy had a slow work.....be ready in a couple weeks.....he's like jason voorhees....he will be back!

10 Oct 2013 4:28 PM
Brontexx

KY VET My dog is sick what should I give him VET IS shortfor veterinarian

isnt it?

10 Oct 2013 5:23 PM
KY VET

GET HIM A NEW OWNER!

10 Oct 2013 8:24 PM
Monarchos Matt

KY VET with maybe the best response I've ever seen by him on this board. Short, immediate, to the point, and all in caps. Well done sir!

As an additional game, what's the over/under on Brontexx's age? I don't ask this to be deragatory, I'm legitimately curious. His most recent post seems to make a bit of a mockery of what I consider to be a serious horse racing discussion board...

I'm going with 14.

10 Oct 2013 10:55 PM
Brontexx

MM If you consider this a serious discussion board who would care about my age.The bloggers on here are comical including you.

11 Oct 2013 4:07 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Nice mid-week winner Phil.

Thanks.

11 Oct 2013 8:25 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Horse people -

In the 8th today at Belmont,  the 5 La Bella Valeria (an upgrade), is listed as 'BLACK'.  If I'm not mistaken, this is very rare.

11 Oct 2013 8:35 AM
Monarchos Matt

Brontexx-

Clearly your sarcasm detector is in need of a trip to the repair shop...and as such you have proven your immaturity, to the surprise of no one.

If we are all so comical to you, then you are more than welcome to take your trolling activities elsewhere. Oh, and we are commenters, not bloggers.

Now, back to the seriousness!

11 Oct 2013 9:55 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Interesting horse in the 4th at Santa Anita today.  

9 Blues and Silvers was an impressive 'vs Zip Winner' two back. This nine time winner may have shown the effects of that taxing effort last out when fading in a neutral event. She's had 9 weeks since the 'top' and should be sharp for this turn back trip.

11 Oct 2013 12:31 PM
Mary Zinke

Yes, that was for you.  Slow work or not you should think about it. Sorry to get up in your business. I just liked him right off after seeing that first race, post discovery.

11 Oct 2013 9:01 PM
Mary Zinke

33

11 Oct 2013 9:08 PM

Recent Posts

More Blogs

Archives