TimeformUS: Top Last-Out Speed Figures in the Breeders' Cup

With the release of TimeformUS Advance Breeders' Cup PPs, you can easily see which horse owns the best last-out TimeformUS speed figure in each Breeders' Cup race. We've asked TimeformUS Chief Figure Maker Craig Milkowski to describe the circumstances in which these top last-out figures were run.

For Breeders’ Cup Advance Past Performances – complete with best-in-class foreign running lines and European and North American speed figures on the same scale – and expert selections and analysis, get the TimeformUS Breeders’ Cup Package.

Friday Breeders' Cup Races

Worldy enters the Marathon with the fastest last-race TimeformUS speed figure, a 112.  He ran it at Churchill Downs in the 1m 1/8 Homecoming S., a race won by Classic contender Fort Larned.  Fort Larned set a fast pace (133 TimeformUS pace figure, first ½ mile) with Worldly chasing him, and the race was slowing down noticeably late, with Worldly losing the place position in the stretch.

TimeformUS PPs for Worldly

Juvenile Turf
Bobby’s Kitten is the top North American figure horse, running a 95 speed figure annexing Belmont Park’s G3 1m 1/16 Pilgrim S.  He tracked a fast pace (124 first ½ mile) while three wide, put away the speeds, and drew clear.  He finished with a final-time figure of 94.

Dirt Mile
Goldencents earned the top last-race speed figure of 117 when finishing second behind Points  Offthebench in the 6-furlong Santa Anita Sprint Championship at Santa Anita.  The race was run with an even pace throughout, slowing only slightly towards the finish, and Goldencents was finishing full of run to just miss.  He has run faster twice, both at longer distances, suggesting the mile distance won’t be a problem.

Juvenile Fillies Turf

Street Sailing’s 86 speed figure is the top last-race North American turf figure in the field.  She ran it in a $58k allowance race at Keeneland back on October 9th.  It was her first turf try, and she pressed the slow pace (53 first ½ mile), put away the other speed horse and drew off from the field.

Princess of Sylmar enters the Distaff with the fastest last-race TimeformUS speed figure, a 117 earned when defeating two-time Eclipse Award winner Royal Delta.  She was placed 3 ½ lengths behind the honest pace (117 first half mile, 117 final time) before ranging up under a hand ride and easily overtaking the pacesetters.  The 117 matched her career-best from the Coaching Club America Oaks.

TimeformUS PPs for Princess of Sylmar


Saturday Breeders' Cup Races

Juvenile Fillies
Artemis Agrotera and Sweet Reason both earned the top last-out speed figure from TimeformUS, a 95 when running 1-2 in the G1 Frizette S. at Belmont Park.  The 1m race was taken by the former, while the latter chased her home after swerving in sharply at the break.  The pace was moderate, with the first half mile run in an 80, and the fillies finished very strongly, receiving a final-time figure of 101.
Filly and Mare Turf
Dank shipped to the USA and took the G1 Beverly D. at Arlington Park, receiving the top last-out TimeformUS speed figure, a 114.  She rated in traffic before finding room and exploding home.  The race featured an honest first half mile of 124 and finished in a 113 final time.  Dank previously recorded Timeform ratings of 118 and 119 in England and Ireland, respectively.

TimeformUS PPs for Dank

Filly and Mare Sprint
Dance to Bristol was the runner-up to the exciting speedster Cluster of Stars in the G2 Gallant Bloom at Belmont.  The effort is the fastest last-out speed figure in the field, a 113. While she didn’t come close to catching the winner that day, it should be noted the track was favorable to horses positioned on the rail, and she was wide most of the trip.

Turf Sprint
(Note: For this piece, we're assuming Silver Max and Obviously are running in the Mile).
Reneesgotzip took the G3 Rancho Bernardo H. with a 115 TimeformUS speed figure at Del Mar back in August, the fastest last-out number in the field.  She set an honest pace on an open lead and drew away from a weak field that day at 1 to 5 odds.  She has limited turf experience, only one race, but that was a good 3rd in this race last year, and it earned her a solid 109 figure as a 3yo.

Havana set a fast pace, 126 for the first half mile, then fended off the fast-closing Honor Code in the G1 Champagne S. run at one mile at Belmont Park.  The 110 speed figure he was assigned is the top in the field by a full 15 points.  This will be his first attempt around two turns.

There is a three-way tie for the top last-race TimeformUS speed figure, with Big Blue Kitten, Little Mike, and Point of Entry all coming in off 117s.  Point of Entry is coming off an injury-induced layoff after taking the Manhattan H. back in June.  The other two exit a 1-2 finish in the Turf Classic Invitational, where Little Mike held off the late charge of Big Blue Kitten. The first half mile was run in 133 and the final time in 117.

Points Offthebench took the G1 Santa Anita Sprint Championship by ½ length over Goldencents and was assigned a TimeformUS speed figure of 116.  He tracked an honest pace from 3rd (1/4 mile 133, ½ mile 124) and outfinished the runner-up to get the win.  The race topped his prior career-top of 115 when 2nd in a February allowance race, also at Santa Anita.
Silver Max ran a career-best 124 speed figure in taking the off-the-turf (to polytrack) Shadwell Mile at Keeneland, besting reigning Horse of the Year Wise Dan in the process.  He was aggressively ridden from the 9 post, while Wise Dan was not and suffered the consequences, losing ground throughout and unable to catch Silver Max down the lane.  The pace was strong, 128 for the 1st half mile and 135 for 6f, but Silver Max had enough left late to hold on.

TimeformUS PPs for Silver Max

When talking “fastest” of just about anything in North American racing in 2013, any race involving Game On Dude will begin and end with him.  His last-out 129 in the G1 Pacific Classic at Del Mar was a tour de force from start to finish.  He established the early lead by blitzing a half mile in 142, then cruised home by 8+ lengths.  He has four faster figures in his career, two in 2013 alone.

TimeformUS PPs for Game on Dude


Leave a Comment:

Pedigree Ann

This whole article starts off with a towering non-sequitor - what number a horse runs at 9f has absolutely no bearing on how well he can run a race of 14f.

25 Oct 2013 10:24 AM
Rusty Weisner

Open (Saturday) BC questions:

Who's the best 3-yo against older? (Mine right now is Sweet Lulu)

Who's the lowest price? (I thought Wise Dan and Game On Dude, but it could be Dank)

Who's the most vulnerable favorite?

Who's the longest priced winner Saturday?

25 Oct 2013 11:45 AM
Rusty Weisner

Pedigree Ann,

"Non-sequitur".  Sorry.  Spelling fanatic.  Everyone's got to be good at something ;-)

25 Oct 2013 1:01 PM
Monarchos Matt


1) I'm going to go with Palace Malice. I know he's only raced once against older, but he was 2nd against a pretty good field and beat the track specialist Flat Out. I think you can make the argument that if RTG hadn't completely freaked, PM wins that race. Sweet Lulu has been impressive and I like the cutback angle, but I fear she may be a bit of a wiseguy pick...a quick look at her speed figures indicates she has consistently been a cut below the best here and she will need to improve.

2) Lowest price will almost certainly be Wise Dan. I think he'll be around 9-5. No one else should be below 2-1. Hoping for 5-2 or even 3-1 on Dank.

3) Most vulnerable favorite has to be Havana. I forgot that Conquest Titan was going in the Juvenile...that's some serious speed to contend with on the front end. At 5-2 he wouldn't be a surprise but seems more worth trying to beat than the above three...you saw my reasoning on the previous blog.

4) As of now, the longest priced winner I'm picking appears to be Grandeur, who would be somewhere in the neighborhood of 15-1 and 20-1. I'm not seeing any other double digit winners (and surely I'm wrong) but the next best chance I'd give to Fast Bullet who should be around 10-1. I like Private Zone and POTB a bit better in that race, but am planning to play a 3 horse exacta.

25 Oct 2013 1:17 PM
Monarchos Matt


If you had to use one of the horses exiting the Hirsch, who do you choose?

25 Oct 2013 2:43 PM
Rusty Weisner

Monarchos Matt,

I'm glad I don't have to choose, but if I did, I hate to tell you I like Little Mike.  He's following the same path as last year, when he won the Arlington Million instead of the Hirsch.  I think he might be set up well by weak front runners, too.

25 Oct 2013 3:02 PM


As much as I like Palace Malace I don't think `he can improve 6 lengths The classic requires around a 116 Beyer and only Mucho Macho Fort Larned and Game on Dude have run that fast. I think Palace Malice will get 3rd or 4th behind those 3 I have a strong feeling G O D will be softened up and Mucho Macho or Fort Larned will take the lead @ the1/8  pole and finish 1-2. My insurance bet will be Flat Out and Ron The Greek exacta over MMM G.O.D. And Fort Larned in case the speed backs up.

25 Oct 2013 3:13 PM


I agree with you I think Wise Dan and Dank are singles.

I like Unbridled Note from an outside post in the Turf Sprint.  

25 Oct 2013 3:21 PM
Rusty Weisner


Now if I can only remember which one is the outside post.

I was talking with MM and mentioned this race often comes up chalky -- the top three finishers from last year return and I think the best of the new is Chips All In, though Jeranimo is interesting here.  There are just too many strange entries for me to try to go very wide in this race.

I agree there's just too much older competition for Palace Malice, who has had a single foe to stalk in his wins (Oxbow, Moreno).  

25 Oct 2013 3:56 PM
Monarchos Matt


The question was which 3 yo has raced the best against older competition, and I went with Palace Malice. I did not say that I think he is the most likely winner of the Classic, but tend to agree with you that he could fill out the 3rd and 4th spots nicely. I like MMM and GOD best, respectively. I'm willing to take a stand against Fort Larned here...he should have a lot more company on the lead on a track that will surely be less speed biased than it was last year, and he seems to be in "on/off" pattern in terms of his races, just not enough consistency for me.

That said, I don't agree that Palace Malice doesn't stand to improve in terms of Beyers. He absolutely does. I can see a scenario where he wins the race, as I truly believe someone in the second flight of horses will be able to capitalize on the pace. I'm not playing closers after last year's debacle unless the track is strongly telling me otherwise, and that would be a surprise. I'll play Palace Malice and Declaration of War on some of my Pick 3 tickets, with Private Zone and Wise Dan singled above them, then spread wider above MMM and GOD.

25 Oct 2013 4:26 PM
Rusty Weisner

Monarchos Matt,

The race Bond Holder won looked weak and he had the benefit of a setup winning it.  They all look weak except for Havana's (don't forget Honor Code was in that one).  I like your Tap it Rich better Bond Holder and would like to see a replay to see what he looked like the middle part of the race.  That was a strange race Strong Mandate ran in the Champagne, going for the lead then pulling back, and I'd throw it out.  These are the two I'd take besides Havana.    

25 Oct 2013 4:40 PM
Monarchos Matt


Little Mike? Haha, not what I wanted to hear. The reality is that the only times he has ever won at 12f, he's done so because he has layed off the early pace. So I can see your angle. Tough call for me. I need to watch the Hirsch multiple more times because unlike you I don't feel at all comfortable singling The Fugue, although agree she must be used.

From what I can recall, the argument can be made that Little Mike got the dream trip of the three. BBK was coming late but checked with Imagining and got bottled up on the rail and still only missed by a head bob. He tends to leave himself a lot of work to do late though.

Real Solution looked poised to make a big move on the turn and flattened out, but his move was super wide and he arguably covered the most ground the fastest of any of the three. I had myself almost talked out of him after realizing he's the only of the 7 horses I'm considering in that race who has never won at the distance. Then Ian Tapp, whose opinions I respect, said in the chat today that Real Solution is his mortal lock of the day. So now I'm rethinking and this is only one of about ten races I plan to play, haha. At least we've got a week to figure it out right?

25 Oct 2013 4:41 PM


Agree with P/M improving a couple to around 112/113 but not better than that.

I'm using POE/Fuuge/Grandeur and L/M in the P 4. I'd rather spread a little more and hit it than not.

25 Oct 2013 4:52 PM
Monarchos Matt


I generally agree with you about Bond Holder's race (78 Beyer) and feel like he may become the wise guy horse off the horse for the course angle. Strong Mandate is kind of a question mark but I don't think you can completely toss his race beyond a mile...anyway, I landed on Tap It Rich and the more I think about it, the fact that he's even entered off one career start makes him worthy of consideration in and of itself.

Oh, and Honor Code would have been my pick for sure if he'd entered (I'm sure I'm in the majority here). Certainly one to watch next spring, I would think...

25 Oct 2013 4:58 PM
Monarchos Matt


I agree, you gotta spread the Turf in the Pick 4. Even narrowing it down to 4 is going to be tricky. I definitely will use Grandeur and The Fugue as well, but lean differently for my last two. I'll let POE beat me coming off the injury layoff, and I can't use Little Mike for well, personal/ psychological reasons. Leaning towards including Indy Point and BBK, but awfully tough to leave out Real Solution if you use Little Mike, Indy Point of Grandeur considering the Arlington Million result. Tough, tough race.

25 Oct 2013 5:12 PM

Tips for B/C races.

Mott has won with Cigar and Drosselmeyer.He also won with Royal Delta twice.Dont underestimate Flat Out and Ron The Greek. I know RTG can't win 2 races in a row but don't let him beat you! Mandella is another trainer who knows how to make money in these races. I like Indy Point a lot I will do a Win Place Parlay on all his horses.  I will do a large Classic Double with Royal Delta with RTG/GOD/Mucho Macho. Good Luck and thanks for sharing your knowledge.

26 Oct 2013 7:46 AM


Re Turf I will hedge my picks in the p4 and use Indy Pt BBK and Real Solution over my four picks in an exacta. That payoff would more than cover my P 4 cost. Thanks

26 Oct 2013 7:51 AM

Tips for B/C races.

Mott has won with Cigar and Drosselmeyer.He also won with Royal Delta twice.Dont underestimate Flat Out and Ron The Greek. I know RTG can't win 2 races in a row but don't let him beat you! Mandella is another trainer who knows how to make money in these races. I like Indy Point a lot I will do a Win Place Parlay on all his horses.  I will do a large Classic Double with Royal Delta with RTG/GOD/Mucho Macho. Good Luck and thanks for sharing your knowledge.

26 Oct 2013 7:52 AM
Pedigree Ann

Rusty - Mea culpa. It bothered me enough that I 'spell-checked' but only high-lighted the 'sequitor' part and the computer was no help. My late great-aunt Sadie, the High School (Omaha South) English teacher has rapped my knuckles for this, figuratively.

I can't work up too much enthusiasm for this BC. Don't know why. Been there, seen that, maybe. None of these horses truly excites me. Somebody will win, I will put their pedigree in my tables, and move on to the Melbourne Cup on Monday eve (Tuesday afternoon down there). Like their announcers down there, too; they don't try to hype horses into stars - let them show it with their races.

26 Oct 2013 10:35 AM

Points of the Bench fatally injured!  So Sad

26 Oct 2013 1:18 PM
Monarchos Matt


Thanks for the tip on the trainers-- I typically don't use that angle on Breeders' Cup day since these guys tend to all be top level to even get horses in the gate to begin with, but that's a good historical perspective.

Sounds like a good strategy to hedge in the Turf. I haven't decided if I'm going to play an exacta or not, but definitely will have some outright money on Grandeur...I'm typically a place bettor when I'm trying to abstract value.

Horrible, horrible, horrible news about Pointsoffthebench. I'm not ready to even think about it. I'm not over Dullahan yet, and this is worse.

26 Oct 2013 3:46 PM
Pedigree Ann

Let me repeat from last year - the hill is the hill is the hill. Horses who have been running 5f and 5.5f on flat courses have little or no shot. Horses with good form at a mile are a better gamble than those with good form only at 5-6f. Horses with wins down the hill have a big advantage.

Much as I love the hill, it is a lousy place to have the BC turf sprint, since the vast majority of turf sprints on this continent are at 5-6f on flat tracks. Thus far, no horse from outside the SoCal circuit has won this race at SA and only a couple have placed. Hardly a fair test of who is the best turf sprinter.

And the outside is the inside. The first turn on the course is to the right, so the higher numbers are closer to the inside rail for that first turn. Speed horses who draw low numbers will be wide on this RH turn.

27 Oct 2013 9:11 AM
Rusty Weisner

Pedigree Ann,

Last year I played a tip of yours (I think it was you) out of the blue on the BC undercard.  It was a 6.5f race on the downhill, Moulin Mougin or something.  Didn't win.  Give me something better this year, and maybe some thoughts on the turf sprint.

27 Oct 2013 9:17 AM

Monarchos Matt,

Tao It Rich:

“He's also got Baffert in his corner and should have a lot of upside in a (pretty weak) edition of this race.”I

Below are some details for the BCJ probables:-

Strong Mandate - 1st G1, Hopeful

Havana – 1st G1, Champagne

Ride On Curlin – 3rd G1, Champagne

Bond Holder – 1st G1, FrontRunner

Cleburne - 1st G3, Iroquois

We Miss Artie 1st G1, B/Futurity

New Year's Day  - last Out winner

Tap It Rich – Last Out winner

Mexikoma – Last Out winner

Smarty’s Echo – 2nd G1, B/Futurity

Diamond Bachlor – 2nd, Z/Beach Stk

Dance With Fete – 2nd,G1, D/Mar F

Rum Point -  4th G1, B/Futurity

There are five G1 winners in the field. In addition to a G3 winner, there are several other horses that have been in the top four in graded races.

This is probably one of the best most competitive and strong field on paper for the Juvenile in years.

BTW: No Breeders Cup Juvenile winner has been a second out MSW winner. Tap It Rich will be starting against 5 G1 winners and multiple grades placed horses.

Tap It Rich has a very high mountain to climb.

27 Oct 2013 9:19 AM
Rusty Weisner

Secreteriat (sic),

The Fugue is my pick in the turf.  They're coming back for the second straight year and are set on this.  Last year they got bottled up inside and I think they avoid that mistake this year.  As I said to MM, I can't make a distinction among the other top contenders, though I think his Grandeur is a good stab at a longshot.  Here's a quote, more or less, from his trainer:  "If we're feeling brave we'll run him against The Fugue."  Sounds like false modesty.

27 Oct 2013 9:23 AM
Rusty Weisner


Others are calling it weak.  Cleburne got a 69 in winning a race in which he benefited from the pace, for example.  A lot of others haven't yet shown any dirt form.  Hard to pick the sleeper -- then it's always hard for me to do that.

Monarchos Matt,

I was watching Strong Mandate's last and you know what it reminded me of?  The experiment with Oxbow in the Arkansas Derby.  

27 Oct 2013 9:26 AM

Rusty Weisner,

There are two interesting longshots that I am focused on for the Juvenile:

Rum Point: Although he has won on a synthetic surface it appears not his best surface. He will make his dirt debut in the BCJ.

He is well bred being by Derby winning sire Malibu Moon out of a mare sired by Quiet American of Bernardini and Saint Liam broodmare sire fame.

His dam Quiet Weekend was produced from the Danzig mare Amirati who was a daughter of Weekend Surprise of A P Indy and Summer Squall fame.

I might just be a bit intoxicated and might just be making a rum point but I am always thirsty for a good shot.

Medal Count: He is May foal sired by Dynaformer of Barbaro fame. He is out of an Unbridles Song mare. There are no inbreeding's in his 1st 5 generations. Unbridles Song has turned out to be an excellent broodmare sire.

I am a fan of no inbreeding in the 1st 5 generations. Champions such as Curlin, Secretariat, Invasor and Leroidesanimaux to name a few, have no inbreeding in the 1st 5 generations.  

Medal Count won his 8F, MSW debut (Dirt) at Ellis Park after a troubled trip. He then contested the G3 Bourbon and was challenging for a top spot when his encounter trouble in the stretch and had to be wrapped up closed to home due to a lack of racing room.

This colt will be mid pack or closer and has a dangerous turn of foot. I have sneaky feeling the 2013 renewal of the BCJ will end in a shocking upset and I hope I am in on it.

27 Oct 2013 9:33 AM


Since you have provided a historic perspective, it is wise not to ignore the following regarding the following horses:


No 6YO has ever won the race.

No horse that has finished worst than 2nd has returned to win the next year.

Turkoman finished 3rd as 3YO in 1985 and returned to finish 2nd as a 4YO in 1986.

Alysheba finished 2nd as 3YO in 1987 and returned to win as a 4YO in 1988.

Medaglia D'Oro finished 2nd as 3YO in 2002 and returned to finish 2nd as a 4YO in 2003.

Two horses are being requested to win the BCC in their 2nd and 3rd attempts as 6YO.

RTG/GOD are expected to succeed where the likes of Zenyatta, Cigar and Pleasantly Perfect have failed.

It's horse racing any anything is possible but I cannot get of board the Flat Out, Ron The Greek and GOD ship.

27 Oct 2013 10:00 AM

Rusty Weisner,

Under no circumstance can a field with five G1 winners, one G3 win and five graded placed horses can be considered weak.

There are several horses that have never contested a race on dirt. But this does not make them weak only untested on the surface.

By regarding the winners of G1 races on either Turf or Synthetic as weak equates to discounting the G1 status of those races.

27 Oct 2013 10:22 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Rusty -

re: Iroquois - Extreme for Closers.  Downgrade the winner Cleburne.  

You'll recall that one of the three speed upgrades out the race performed pretty well in his next start despite being 'too slow'.  That runner was Ride On Curlin.

Laddie Boy, the pace setter of the Iroquois, was a bold upgrade winner last weekend.

Today,  in the 8th at Churchill, the Quick to Zip mover from the Iroquois, Tapiture,  drops back into MSW company looking like a single.

27 Oct 2013 10:28 AM
Rusty Weisner

Plod Boy Phil,

That's why I initially liked Ride on Curlin.  Thanks for the confirmation, because I was already giving a horse like Cleburne no chance in the BC.

Tapiture ran second against Strong Mandate, too.  

27 Oct 2013 10:47 AM
Rusty Weisner


Maybe by "weak" I really mean hard to handicap ;-)

27 Oct 2013 10:48 AM
Rusty Weisner

"I have sneaky feeling the 2013 renewal of the BCJ will end in a shocking upset and I hope I am in on it."

This was my initial take on this race, and my initial hope.  I know it's not real bold of me to say it, but you may be right:  I feel like the synthetic races are obscuring the form of some potential winners.  

Unfortunately, Havana looks stronger to me than I wanted him to look.  He could ruin people's fun.

I'm feeling very wishy-washy and pessimistic about this race.

27 Oct 2013 10:55 AM
Monarchos Matt


I take your point, however I'm not a fan of considering the winner of a race a strong runner simply on  the basis of some aribtrary grade attached to the race. It's about how the race was run to me, not the number attached to it. Are you of the opinion that a horse that runs a 100 Beyer and wins by 10 lengths in a Grade 2 race is inferior to a horse like Bond Holder, who ran a 78, in the Grade 1 Front Runner? (Granted there is no example in the field to apply to the former...)

The fact is, this race is far from loaded with talent in terms of horses that have run impressive races. To me, the top two colts in this class so far have been Honor Code and Ride on Curlin...neither is coming.

I do agree with you though that Tap It Rich is going to be in tough trying to win this following only once race against maidens. I'm hoping that fact will help his price a bit, if it does not I may look elsewhere, I just don't see a lot to like and I want to try to beat the favorite on the lead, especially with Conquest Titan signed on.


I will take a closer look at Strong Mandate, thanks. If the Champagne is indeed a race that should be tossed , that makes all the difference in the world. Had he won there he'd have been one of the biggest favorites on the day, probably around 2-1 or so...as it is DRF has him estimated at four times that.

Speaking of Oxbow, did you see they retired him yesterday? I'm very disappointed. Not a good day of horse news yesterday by any stretch.

27 Oct 2013 11:05 AM
Rusty Weisner

Monarchos Matt,

No, I hadn't seen that about Oxbow.  He was one of my favorites.

27 Oct 2013 12:27 PM

"some aribtrary grade attached to the race."

Sometime the graded status of races are adjusted either upwards or downwards. The graded status races are anything but arbitrary.

"Are you of the opinion that a horse that runs a 100 Beyer and wins by 10 lengths in a Grade 2 race is inferior to a horse like Bond Holder, who ran a 78"

I rarely focus on Beyers. I like many, focus of reviewing PP video for pertinent information. In so doing I focus on actions, manner in which ground is covered and energy level in the last furlong amongst other things.

At your convenience review the two races contested by Medal Count. I am sure you have not given him a second look. He is the type of horse I like irrespective of his Beyers.

There is another longshot that I like in the BCJ (Male) Turf. He is Bon Accord. He is a Showing Up colt that lit up the board at 46-1 on his turf debut in the Calder Turf Dash S.(5fT).

He was disregarded in the  Bourbon Stk.(Kee,8½f). He finished 1 3/4L third at 34-1. He had previously not run beyond 5.5F and was up against horses that had multiple starts at a 7f&8f.

27 Oct 2013 12:40 PM
Rusty Weisner

Monarchos Matt,

I just watched that race of Untapable's and I liked it that she beat a good horse despite fighting restraint.  Sweet Reason is a legitimate favorite (her sire won the Juvenile, too) and the odds won't be as bad as they could be because of the loss last out.  

27 Oct 2013 1:40 PM
Monarchos Matt


I understand what you are saying but I feel like you are missing my point. Sure, there are parameters for determining which races reach Grade I status and which do not. All I am suggesting is that the nature of those parameters does not automatically make Grade I races superior to other ones.

I realize that you rarely focus on Beyers. I don't use them as an end-all be-all tool, but I do think that they can provide important information in terms of separation and comparison. My example is simply that Bond Holder's Grade I winning race does not look, to me, on paper or to the naked eye, better than Tap It Rich's maiden win. And the speed figures confirm this with a large gap (78 and 89 respectively). Are we going to overlook the fact that Tap It Rich ran the more impressive race simply because the race that Bond Holder won had a "G1" attached to it?

Thanks for the suggestion on Medal Count. I will take a look and see what I think. These are of course 2 yo with lots of room to improve.

27 Oct 2013 1:51 PM
Monarchos Matt


Regarding Strong Mandate, I notice that the race he won at 7f (Hopeful) was over a muddy track. That said, his career high Beyer was the race before that at 6.5f on a fast track. I don't really like the trajectory of his figures, which are descending as the race distances have gotten longer:

6.5f, 7f and 8.5 f, Figures of 92, 85 and 74.

That said, I'd like to be able to talk myself back into him. He's a Tiznow colt and I always like to root for those.

27 Oct 2013 4:00 PM

Cold Facts' I agree with you that no 6 yr old has won the B C Classic. GOD is the exception. He missed the break last year and the race was over. He's been less than even money in his last six races and is unbeaten. His morning line is 5-2 and the next 2 horses are 6-1 followed by your horse Declaration of War which I like at 8-1. This horse is at home and has MIke Smith who is winning Grade 1's and has won almost as much money as the leading rider with A 1/3 OF the  mounts. He is the exception and the horse to beat. With Graydar going to the mile G.O.D will be tracking Moreno and Palace Malace and take the lead with an 1/8 of a mile to go and will be the horse to catch. I give Much Macho Man and Fort Larned the best chance to get him unless he gets post 1 and 2 which have only won 2 of 76 races. If Declaration of War is at 8-1 at William Hill the euro line it tells me how much better is G.O.D than everyone else. Flat out and RTG has the 6yr handicap but they are proven at the 1 1/4 and if the race falls apart they could win by default like Drosselmeyer who was not the best horse in his race. Good luck with Declaration of War. I can see him finishing 2nd or 3rd at juicy odds. My problem with him is he was not pointed for this race.He is running here because the turf came up soft for his final race in Europe. Good Luck!

27 Oct 2013 8:50 PM


In 2012 GOD contested six races before his BCC effort: He won four and the following horses finished second to him:

Uh OH bango

Kettle Corn

Richards Kid


Both Richards Kid and Nonios finished ahead of him in the BCC. None of the horses that finished second to GOD in 2012 were serious BCC contenders. In spite of this, two finished ahead of him. Even with a bad break he should have finished ahead of the two aforementioned horses.

In 2013 GOD contested 5 races winning all. The following horses finished second to him were:

Clubhouse Ride (3 times)

Kettle Corn (2 times)

It is likely the above two G2 horses would be chasing the ambulance in the BCC. Consequently, they would not be considered for the race even if both were sound and still in training. If defeating the same two horses a in his five races, makes him an exception to win the BCC as 6YO, my head serves only to separate my ears.

The field that will be assembled against GOD is significantly stronger than any he has faced in 2013. His opponents will not be old partially sound G2 horses.

I firmly believe he has no chance of winning.

27 Oct 2013 10:12 PM
Rusty Weisner

Monarchos Matt,

I might feel the same way if I saw the figures lined up on the page, but I don't have all the BSF's handy yet.

I'm going to tune that data out as noise.  I think you're getting too cute -- the horse really can't run 8.5f?  I doubt that.  I also wouldn't blame the horse for winning in the slop (though I wouldn't have bet him next out) -- I would also be skeptical of the BSF assigned for any race on a sloppy track; they usually seem to get inflated, but who knows?  It may matter more that he's shown he can run fast on a dry track.  And finally, because I sometimes let my imagination get away with me in fishing for angles, I'm convinced that Champagne was funny:  he broke sharply and grabbed the lead (as usual), then throttled back, then made a move on the turn, then nothing.  Strange effort.  Beyond Havana, Strong Mandate and Tap It Rich I can't distinguish between any of the others -- this might be race where I take two tickets: those three, and ALL.  I still think Havana's a legitimate favorite, though, and will consider singling him on a third ticket.

28 Oct 2013 11:06 AM
Rusty Weisner


I'm finding you convincing on the subject of Game on Dude.

28 Oct 2013 11:07 AM
Rusty Weisner


That's a helpful note about Declaration of War.

28 Oct 2013 11:08 AM
Rusty Weisner


Those aren't the post position statistics I see for SA.  You can find them on equibase.

28 Oct 2013 11:15 AM
Rusty Weisner

I hadn't realized the PP draw will be this afternoon.

28 Oct 2013 11:18 AM
Rusty Weisner

Horses out of a NY race have something like a 5% winning percentage in BC races at SA.  I forget where I read that.

28 Oct 2013 11:35 AM
Pedigree Ann

Coldfacts - just because something hasn't happened YET, doesn't mean it is not possible. No son of Bold Ruler had won the Kentucky Derby (and many had tried) before Secretariat. No foal out of a daughter of Heliopolis had won the Kentucky Derby before Riva Ridge did it. No female had won the BC Classic before Zenyatta did it.

While the past has some predictive power for the future - Graydar's defection from the BC altogether due to a foot problem, for instance - it is far from absolute, which is the impression you make in your statements.

28 Oct 2013 11:45 AM
Pedigree Ann

Rusty - the filly I hyped (against colts, by the way), was in a pre-BC race for 2yos; she is a half-sister to course specialists Cambiocorsa and California Flag (a BC winner).

I did hit the exacta in the BC race down the hill by keying horses with  successful runs on the hill, Mizdirection and somebody's Note.

28 Oct 2013 11:50 AM
Rusty Weisner


Unbridled's Note, running back in the same event this year, along with third-place finisher Reneesgotzip.

28 Oct 2013 12:32 PM
Rusty Weisner

Monarchos Matt,

I'm looking at the F&M Sprint.  An interesting fact:  Judy the Beauty has never won on dirt.  

28 Oct 2013 12:36 PM
Monarchos Matt


I generally agree with you here on Strong Mandate, there isn't any real reason to believe that the distance was an issue, probably the horse was just dull. It's still possible he is better at sprint distances but the evidence comes from a pretty small sample size. Still liking Tap It Rich best but may want to involve SM as well.

I'm thinking exacta key : Tap It Rich/ Havana, Bond Holder, Strong Mandate and place bet on Tap It rich.

28 Oct 2013 12:39 PM
Monarchos Matt


I noticed that as well about JTB. It's fair to wonder whether it was the surface switch or the stretch out that benefited her in her last one.

Still think Dance To Bristol fits best and she will see my outright money. Probably will need to use at least 4 in Pick 3, though.

28 Oct 2013 12:53 PM
Rusty Weisner

I don't have a single for this one.  I like, more or less in this order:

Dance to Bristol

Book Review

Sweet Lulu

Groupie Doll

Teddy's Promise

Summer Applause

Judy the Beauty

28 Oct 2013 1:02 PM
Rusty Weisner

Here's a longshot (not sure how long) I'll try some way:  Lady of Shamrock.  The bigger the field the better her chances.  Ran very well in this race as a 3yo last year.

28 Oct 2013 1:57 PM

Pedigree Ann,

"Just because something hasn't happened YET, doesn't mean it is not possible."

How could anyone disagree with the above. It is not impossible for a horse older than 5 to win the BCC. However that horse is not GOD.

There are too many signals that indicat he will not be the 2013 winner of the BCC.

Being as 6YO is the least of the negatives. The horses that have finished second to him have the following records for 2013:-

Kettle Corn: 6 starts,1 victory

Clubhouse Ride:9 starts 1 victory.

Who did Kettle Cord defeat? Paynter a horse that had part of its intestines removed and has no chance of winning any significant G1 race.

Who did Clubhouse Ride defeat in his one victory? Liaison!

GOD is a need to lead horse and if he cannot get to set his own pace against good company he spits the bid.

His time has come and gone. Drosslymeyer was as slow as a tug boat and ran by him at CD. There will be a combination of high cruisers, talented stalkers and furious closers in the 2013 renewal of the BCC.

He has not faced that type of compition all year. 9F Suburban

"No son of Bold Ruler had won the Kentucky Derby (and many had tried) before Secretariat."

Bold Ruler is a bad example. He won the 9.5F Preakness, 9F Wood Memorial and 9F Suburban.

Based on those victories Bold Ruler was quite capable of siring a Derby winner.

Mr. Prospector would have been a better example seeing that he sires Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus when he was 26YO.

"Graydar's defection from the BC altogether due to a foot problem"

I am so sorry he will not contest the BC Dirt Mile. He had no chance of winning on the rock hard SA surface but would have made the winner's dividend lucrative.

28 Oct 2013 2:04 PM

Monarchos Matt ,

A last out MSW winner is your key horse in the BCJ.

You certainly have a pair that should be insured as collectors items for your bravery.

Mr. Baffert has played this game before with mixed success.

Paynter won his MSW debut at 5.5F. His next start was the 9F SA Derby where he finished 4th.

Midnight Interlude broke his maiden in his 3rd attempt in a MSW. His next race was the SA Derby that he won.

Despite his mixed success with his MSW winner in graded races, I think Tap It Rich has no chance of wining the BCJ.

The Speedy Bob trained Lookin At Lucky entered the 2009 BCJ unbeaten in six starts. He was the overwhelming favorite and was defeated.

28 Oct 2013 2:32 PM

Rusty Weisner,

Dance To Bristol was 2nd in the Gallant Bloom. Two to three lengths behind her was Dance Card who was returning from 10 months off.

The distance of the Gallant Bloom was to short for Dance Card  even if she was fully fit.

You have excluded her from your list. Under no circumstance can Dance To Bristol defeat a fit Dance Card with an extra at 100M to travel.

28 Oct 2013 2:44 PM
Plod Boy Phil

from Flowville...

Havana's win was 'neutral'.

Strong Mandate's win was 'neutral'.

Tap It Rich's win was Flow aided.

28 Oct 2013 2:45 PM

Clear Mandate died of foaling complications on February 19, 2011, after producing a healthy Tiznow colt.

That healthy Tiznow colt is Strong Mandate who was foaled on February 8, 2011.

This colt did not have the benefit of its dam and should be supported with caution.

28 Oct 2013 2:51 PM
Rusty Weisner


I'll ask my banker about adding her...

He says it's okay.

I agree - I shouldn't have omitted that one.

28 Oct 2013 3:02 PM
Rusty Weisner


I like this one a lot, actually.  She and the lower-priced Dance to Bristol had no chance chasing on a track with a reported track bias.  She will get far better odds than her competitor for finishing a couple lengths behind her, off the long layoff and coming even further off the pace.  

28 Oct 2013 3:12 PM


"My problem with Declaration Of War is, he was not pointed for this race.He is running here because the turf came up soft for his final race in Europe."

Declaration of War will enter the BCC 71 day between races and  I am not the least concern.

If he were being trained by an American trainer he would be an automatic toss due to the length of time between races..

Aidan Obrien is simply brilliant at preparing horses to perform off long respites.

Master Of Hounds contested the BCJ Turf on 11/06/2011 and finished 6th. His next start was on 03/26/2012 in the UAE Derby where he lost by a NS.

His next start was the Kentucky Derby where he finished 5th

Lines Of Battle contested the BCJ Turf on 11/03/2012 and finished 7th. His next start was 03/30/2013 in the UAE Derby where he finished 1st.

His next start was also the Kentucky Derby where he finished 7th

On both occasions Aidan Obrien  used horses that had made one start 3YOs and one start in 174 days to finish 5th & 7th in America's toughest 10F race to win.

My concern is whether he will make a successful transition from turf to dirt. If he does the BCC is his for the taking.

28 Oct 2013 3:29 PM
Rusty Weisner


O'Brien has won two BC races on the dirt, Johannesburg and the 2009 Marathon and was second with Giant's Causeway.  Henry the Navigator was 2nd on synthetic.  So I guess it's possible.

28 Oct 2013 3:51 PM

Coldfacts, Transition to dirt will be no problem. Shipping will!

I will use him in my exotics.

My key horse will be the horse that has won 5 times at the distance is trained by the best trainer in California and ridden by a jockey that has one 17 B/C races and 23 million in B/C purses.

Good luck!!

28 Oct 2013 4:02 PM
Monarchos Matt

Ha, thanks Coldfacts.

Yes, I'll be using a last out winner over maidens as my key horse it appears. I continue to believe this is a very weak field and will take a shot and hope for decent value.

I see where you are coming from with this logic of class but I would be careful applying it to this race in particular with such forcefulness. The fact is, all of these colts are recent maiden winners. The favorite was a maiden winner before winning the Champagne and has contested two career races. Your value play Medal Count was a maiden winner before finishing off the board in his graded attempt and has contested two career races.

Does merely attempting a graded event elevate one contender above the other? I'd agree that it provides valuable experience, but beyond that I think there is something to be said for the unknown in a race like this.

I look more towards trajectory and potential for improvement. Tap It Rich ran an 89 Beyer in his career debut. That figure is the second highest in the field at 8f or beyond, and no other colts signed on have raced only once.

Additionally, I like that he was able to win from off the pace, and was expanding his lead into the finish...with Havana, Conquest Titan, Strong Mandate, New Year's Day and Diamond Bachelor all likely to contest the pace, I think it makes sense to use an off-the-pace runner with upside. I do take note that Phil has judged his maiden win as fairly favorable for this style, but why can't this one be favorable as well?

28 Oct 2013 4:39 PM
Monarchos Matt

Looks like Grandeur had a tough trip across the pond and did not enter the Turf. And there goes my best value pick of the day. Back to the drawing board...

28 Oct 2013 4:57 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Monarchos Matt -

Makes perfect sense to me. There is something to be said for having knowledge that the horse is capable of capitalizing on very favorable circumstances if they present themselves.

However, repeating against better is tough enough when a horse has a genuine talent advantage, something I do not believe this one has at this time. Since I don't bet downgrades, I will not be using TIR in rolling gimmicks.

Good luck.

28 Oct 2013 5:06 PM

Havana is listed as the 5-2 ML favorite for the BCJ. The tail wheeling Champagne Stakes winner was sired by Dunkirk. What the significant of mentioning his sire? Birdstone!

Dunkirk was purchased for $3.7 million and was considered to have the bluest of blood. Despite his lack of seasoning with only 3 starts he left the Derby starting gates at 4-1. He finished 11th behind 50-1 race winner Mine That Bird who was sired by Birdstone.

Dunkirk’s 11th place finish in the Derby did not prevent him from being sent off at 4-1 in the Belmont. The colt that finished 6th in the Derby was sent off at 10-1. That colt was Summer Bird who was the eventual winner of the Belmont. He was also sired by Birdstone.

Two colts sired by Birdstone defeated Dunkirk in the Derby and Belmont.

Dunkirk’s son Havana will face off against two sons of Birdstone in the BCJ i.e., Mexikoma and Conquest Titan. Dunkirk fell victim Birdstone as a racehorse, could he also fall victim to him as a sire?

Off the two Birdstone colts Mexikoma appears to be the one most likely to upset Havana. Like Havana he has made only two starts. His first was an unplaced effort on turf. His second was a 14 1/2L victory in a mile at Delaware Park. The race was completed in 1:37.61 with a final quarter of 24 1/5. This time remains the fastest for a two turn mile for any 2YO. He was purchased by Team Valor after that victory.

Birdstone has sired three exceptional colt to date i.e., Mine That Bird, Summer Bird and Bird Run. Could Mexikoma be the next? Time will tel. His ML is a juicy 12-1 and I cannot resist including him in my exotic wagers.

NB: Conquest Titan with a ML of 30-1 is being unwisely disregarded. He broke his maiden in the Swynford Stakes and was a good 5th in the G1, Keenland Breeder’s Futurity. His dam line appears more impressive than that of Mexikoma and he is the more accomplished of the two. Could I be focusing on the wrong Birdstone?

29 Oct 2013 2:25 AM


"The race was completed in 1:37.61 with a final quarter of 24 1/5. This time remains the fastest for a two turn mile for any 2YO."

The above is incorrect as Tap It Rich recorded an impressive 1:36.78 in his two turn mile debut.

It should be noted that time was recorded on SA Park Speedway.

29 Oct 2013 9:56 AM
Pedigree Ann

"Bold Ruler is a bad example. He won the 9.5F Preakness, 9F Wood Memorial and 9F Suburban."

If you are going by the title 'Coldfacts', kindly get your facts right. The Suburban H was 10f until very recently and Bold Ruler won it with 134 lbs in 2:01 flat. He also won the 10f Monmouth H (2:01 & 2) and the 10f Trenton H (2:01 &2) giving weight to Gallant Man and Round Table. He had had 10f winners by Sec's time (he had had more than a dozen crops by then and had died the year after Sec was born), but only fillies or colts that came to hand later than 2 had won at 10f.

You obviously weren't around then, so you wouldn't remember the discussion about Secretariat and the Derby and being a son of Bold Ruler, whose previous top 2yo sons like Bold Lad, Successor, King Emperor, etc. had done poorly in the race or had flamed out early at 3. This only intensified after Sec's Wood Memorial loss. I was listening to all this (actually, reading - little pre-Derby stuff on TV or radio). Being at university in SoCal, I was a Sham backer anyway, and hoped it would hold true. Didn't.

29 Oct 2013 11:25 AM
Rusty Weisner

Christmas morning.  PP's.  I'm looking for a second, bigger Christmas in one week this Saturday.

I like the draw for a couple races that follow each other, the Turf Sprint and the Juvenile.  I wanted to not like Havana and now I'll feel stronger about going against him out of the 13.  By the stats I have pp's beyond the 10 in routes are 0-26.  In the turf sprint, meanwhile, the 1-2 finishers last year, who look like the major contenders this year, got outside (good) posts.  

29 Oct 2013 11:37 AM

After further review my tosses this weekend will be Trinninberg, Fort Larned, Point of Entry, Silver Max,Strong Mandate, Havana, My Conquistadore from the win spot

29 Oct 2013 12:22 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Rusty -

Is that pp stat for this SA meet ?

29 Oct 2013 12:43 PM

Pedigree Ann,

You seem so confrontational. The fact that the Suburban H was once 10F is irrelevant. It is now 9F and that's a fact. My posting ID is not "Historicfacts.'

I am of the opinion that a horse capable of winning a G1 over 9.5F should be capable of siring a Derby winner.

The fact that it took a longer than expected does not discredit my assessment.

Mr. Prospector was a 7F horse at best. His sire Raise A Native  never won beyond 5.5F in his short career.

If there was speculation about which sire would be capable of siring a Derby winner it should have been Mr. Prospector.

NB: You like many, focus too much on my posting ID and feel it necessary to be confrontational. I am just a regular contributor quite capable of being incorrect.

29 Oct 2013 1:00 PM


Silver Max a toss!

A 4YO with an 11 race win record is a toss.

An over raced 3YO who was rested for 7 months, has returned bigger and stronger to win his last 3 races including a win over the revered Wise Dan is a toss!

Is this a classic case of the suspension of rational thinking.

My Conquistadore a toss.

A filly that broke her maiden in a G2 race against boys and then win another graded race with a troubled trip is a toss.

If the toss decision is based on her #14 post, the real brilliant ones are capable of overcoming  adversities.

29 Oct 2013 1:11 PM
Monarchos Matt


Tossing My Conquestadory based on post I assume? I moved her from #1 to #3 on my preference chart after the draw but still planning to use her in Pick 3. Think Vorda and Testa Rossi look best now though.

Starting that sequence, I see an upset brewing in the Dirt Mile with the speedy favorites drawn wide. Brujo de Olleros for me.

29 Oct 2013 1:25 PM
Rusty Weisner

Plod Boy Phil,

It says thru Oct. 27, 2013.

29 Oct 2013 1:50 PM
Monarchos Matt


You can't be happy with Silver Max drawing to the direct outside of Obviously, can you? I won't go so far as to call either of them a toss, but a suicidal speed duel is likely in the works here.

29 Oct 2013 1:50 PM
Rusty Weisner

I was surprised to see Flashback back in a stakes on the 3-race Saturday undercard.  Kind of ruins the appetizer.

So there's a French filly called Romantica in the F&M turf, same class or better as Dank, no Lasix.  Any thoughts?

29 Oct 2013 1:59 PM
Rusty Weisner

This is kind of an interesting matchup.  Romantica runs 10-12f, Dank has never run this distance, unless you count that explosive 9.5f win last out.  I will put Romantica on a par with Dank, just for the odds.  

29 Oct 2013 2:05 PM
Rusty Weisner

...and Andre Fabre won the same race with Banks Hill.  Her two poor G1 efforts were at 12f.  I'm making her a "single" with Dank, but I don't trust Euros at SA and will play another "against" ticket, probably adding Tiz Flirtatious, Lady of Shamrock, Laughing and Marketing Mix.

29 Oct 2013 2:23 PM
Rusty Weisner

...plus these two are stuck with the inside posts.  I'm not sure how to play this race.

29 Oct 2013 2:29 PM
Monarchos Matt


I'm not sure I agree with "same class or better", but she defintely has me a bit worried about singling Dank here.

The separating factor to me is that Dank is proven over firm ground in the US and beat top class mare Marketing Mix so easily...the added distance should help her if anything based on that race. DRF has an interesting note on Romantica:

"Won an iffy Group 1 two starts back, but otherwise, she sports steady Group 2 to Group 3 form."

29 Oct 2013 2:30 PM
Rusty Weisner

Monarchos Matt,

I noted the same thing:  Watchmaker actually made her 20-1.  Were it so, it would make it easier to take her.  How does he know what an iffy G1 over there is, anyway?

Dank got Lasix, by the way, and she doesn't.  And that will remain a factor.  So I will probably stick with Dank as a true single and only include Romantica.

29 Oct 2013 2:55 PM
Rusty Weisner

Monarchos Matt,

I am keeping the turf sprint cheap and chalky, with Mizdirection and Unbridled's Note.  These two were in practically the same posts last year and finished 1-2.  My third and fourth choices are in inside posts.  I am going to hope that I've picked right and that a lot of bettors waste their money going wide in this race, part of the P4.

29 Oct 2013 3:04 PM
Rusty Weisner

Monarchos Matt,

I thought Tiz Flirtatious was very good last out, because that looked like a front-runner's race and the last quarter was 22.64.  She's also a horse for the course.  Lady of Shamrock is longest shot on the board her, is older, is local, had a difficult setup last out, and was second to Tiz Flirtatious two back.  I will give this horse a chance on a ticket and may play small exactas and WPS.

29 Oct 2013 3:11 PM
Rusty Weisner

Monarchos Matt,

Sweet Reason in the Juvenile Fillies seems like a legitimate favorite, especially as she had an excuse last time, but I have to go against her.  I always bet against the Beyer spike in the slop, which depress her odds as much as anything.  And this is a stretchout to two turns, as well as a usually fatal export of NY form (see above).  Problem is, it's hard to make a distinction among the others.  The Chandelier started fast but got slower and slower, so maybe you can forgive Secret Compass and She's a Tiger for the low Beyer, Untapable is a contender, Concave is a crazy longshot stretching out on dirt.  

29 Oct 2013 3:34 PM

All the BCCs contested at SA Park have been complete in 2:00 plus or less. This time frame relates to both dirt and synthetic.

The 2012 BCC winner and runner up contested a combined two 10F races before their BCC effort:

Fort Larned - 3rd in JCGC completed in 2:01.44

MMM – 3rd Kentucky Derby completed in 2:02.04.

Both races were their 1st attempts at the distance.

How do the 3YOs compare at the distance?

Palace Malice – Unplaced in K/Derby completed in 2:02.89; 4th in Travers completed in 2:02.68 and 2nd in JCGC completed in 1:59.70 (3 attempts)

WTC - Unplaced in K/Derby completed in 2:02.89; 1st in Travers completed in 2:02.68. (2 attempt)

Moreno - 2nd in Travers completed in 2:02.68 (1 attempt)

Palace Malice appears to have the best time for the distance but it was on his 3rd attempt on a track known for quick times at the distance. it appears Pleasant Tap’s 1:58.80 is the sakes record for the distance.

In Moreno’s first attempts at 9F, 1 3/16F & 10F, he finished 3rd, 4th & 2nd.  

In PM first efforts at 9F, 10F & 12F, he finished 7th, 12th and 1st.

In WTC first efforts at 9F, 10F & 1 3/16F, he finished 1st, 8th and 10th

The late bloomer Moreno appears to have a better record over a distance of ground than both PM and WTC despite the fact that both have beaten.

He was defeated by the Belmont winner but returned to finish ahead of him in his 1st attempt at 10F. He was runner up to WTC twice but could have paid the price for a brutal 11 and 12 races campaign on each occasion

If he can improve a couple of seconds within his 6 weeks between races, he has to be the 3YO with the best shot.

It cannot be over emphasized that his sire and dam sire won the BCC so it in his blood.

NB: History would be recorded in the BCC should Moreno win as both as Awesome Again, his son Ghostzapper and his grandson Moreno would have won America's richest race.

29 Oct 2013 3:49 PM
Monarchos Matt


You're playing the multi-race wagers a lot deeper than I am, so I may stick with Dank as a single here as she really is my most confident win pick of the day...if I get nervous it would be a less costly hedge to simply play Romantica as a place wager than include her in the Pick 3. That way I could potentially hit both bets, and still retrieve my investment if Romantica wins. This of course playing the angle that the Euros are just on another level, although I'm less confident about that recently as Say lost two straight races at KEE as my win pick...

Tiz Flirtatious is certainly a horse for the course and in career form, but I worry she won't get enough pace here to be optimally effective. Laughing looks like lone speed yet again but surely the gig is up with her...right?

Lady of Shamrock looks like a bottom of extoics contender at best to me.

I'm not playing the Turf Sprint, but if I were you I would consider using Reneesgotzip as well.

29 Oct 2013 3:50 PM
Rusty Weisner


That was a dumb comment about NY form.  Shanghai Bobby won the Juvenile last year.  Sweet Reason looks strong.

29 Oct 2013 3:51 PM
Monarchos Matt


The more I look at the Juvenile Fillies, the more confident I am that Untapable is the winner. I know I've spent a lot of time on this board talking about Tap It Rich, but I actually feel more confident about the Tapit filly and will play her accordingly...not necessarily as a single, but as a heavier outright bet.

I agree with you about Sweet Reason but I'm not sure I want to beat her altogether...sure, the high fig came on slop and two turns is a question, but not necessarily a concern, and she did have excuses in her last. AA may not be getting enough credit for beating her there either, and could get a ground saving trip on the rail, a post which I don't think hurts in this race. I'll try to beat the Horse for the Course runners coming out of the Chandelier and use the above 3 in my Pick 3, into a Dank single, and then try to narrow down the FM Sprint to 4.

29 Oct 2013 4:02 PM
Rusty Weisner

For me the Juvenile is unplayable.  I'm glad it's sandwiched between the two P4s.

29 Oct 2013 4:22 PM

My Conquistdore won me a lot of money in her last race and my heart was in my toes with all the traffic she had to get thru. I know she is the best in that race but if she does not get a clean run I will make a lot of money using her in 2nd and 3rd with all "ala" Rusty.

I will use her on top in the double before and after in case I'm wrong. Silver Max had his day on Poly and Obviously will wear him down setting it up for Wise Dan or Za Approval I have to go with Testa Rossi Vorda & Clenor. Declaration of War also won me some good change at Royal Ascot on Turf but Santa Anita's configuration will not help him and the dirt(sand) will sting him and he will not be happy, If this was Belmont or Arlington I'd bet him to win but not here.

I'm thinking of doing three P4, 1 Friday and two Saturday using 4 deep and hope to hit at least 1. Last year I was shut out Friday and the first 6 on Saturday then in the last race Fort Larned came in with my P 4 and put a big smile on my Face! These races are very tough and all of us have something to offer. Good luck and keep the flow coming.

29 Oct 2013 4:36 PM
Rusty Weisner

Monarchos Matt,

That was my point about Tiz Flirtatious:  I don't think she got an optimal pace last time -- but she doesn't have to come far off the pace anyway.

I considered Reneesgotszip but her inside post is apparently a disadvantage.  I also like the 3,5, 6, but I'm going to stick to a cheap ticket with two horses.    

I may take Tap It Rich as a single on some cheap P3.  The two I like in the Juv are parked outside and the rest are an indistinguishable mass to me.  It's ALL race for me, but one that's too expensive to play.

I'm looking at the Turf now, where POE is questionable and one of the contenders, Real Solution is parked wide.  All the throwouts are on the inside; I don't know what that means for the complexion of the race.  I single The Fugue on a P4 ticket here and I'd like to devise a P3 with her singled as the closing leg.  

29 Oct 2013 4:50 PM
Monarchos Matt


I don't think post position in the 12f Turf is really much of a consideration. Real Solution likes to sit back early and come late anyway, so with him I think you either like him or you don't. Pretty amazing that he could be 8-1 when that's what he was when he won the Arlington Million. That's very hard to pass up, although he is the one serious contender that's never won at the distance. It looks like he's been outworking his stablemate, BBK, however.

As I've said before this isn't a race that I think can be singled and it lost a lot of value for me when Grandeur flew all the way over here and then forgot to enter the race. But I think one horse that would be tough to leave out is Indy Point, given his running style and the way he handled the course in his last start. His Million no-show is a total throwout. It will likely be The Fugue, Indy Point, Real Solution and Big Blue Kitten for me to start the Pick 4. Going to try to beat POE off the layoff and also try to beat Little Mike because, well, he's Little Mike and I know no other strategy than to try to beat him.

29 Oct 2013 5:06 PM
Monarchos Matt


Rather than working out a cheap Pick 3 ticket, a higher expected value strategy might be to simply put a small win bet on Tap It Rich. He really does look quite tough in here with the way the posts ended up, doesn't he? I mean even Coldfacts alluded to his mile time being the fastest in the field and he is adamantly against playing him on top. I just don't see any other way to go. The only two other horses that have run fast are parked way outside and are pace horses, which is not an ideal combination. I really wish Honor Code and Ride on Curlin had come. I'll have my eyes on those two for next Spring after the BC is behind us.

29 Oct 2013 5:10 PM
Plod Boy Phil

re: Wide Posts at SA dirt routes

Just did a power scan of horses breaking from post 10 or wider going 8f and 8.5f on dirt (10 minutes of research).

I found ~13 at this meet.

The average off odds were ~27-1.

There were 2 runners-ups at 5-1 and 9-1.  Noble Kent won from the 10 post going 8f on Oct 14.

The most important piece of information is that in general the only races that fill the gate to such capacity are bottom level maiden claimers or bottom level condition claimers. Therefore, the obstacle a horse faces is likely too much for lower quality animals, but may not necessarily force handicappers to eliminate the chances of true contenders in quality fields.  Maybe.

29 Oct 2013 6:10 PM
Monarchos Matt

Looking over the Mile now and starting to think it isn't as simple as it looks. This really could be a complete and utter pace meltdown. Obviously went out in :45.5 in his last race and will have no choice but to do the same, and Silver Max will have no choice but to go with him. Add Bright Thought to the mix, who I still think is entered in the wrong Turf race, and you have a serious pace likely.

I was set on using the favored horses like Wise Dan and Olympic Glory, who figure to be in the second flight of horses, but if the pace really is that fast, the deep closers have every right to make an impact as well. One that interests me particularly is No Jet Lag, who appears to be a completely different horse after switching to firmer turf. The 105 Beyer he ran last time out over this course is the third best in the field and he could get a favorable, ground saving trip on the rail to set up his late move.

I only want to use two horses here so it's Olympic Glory vs No Jet Lag decision time....I want to use the soft turf angle against Olympic Glory, but he did finish a strong 2nd over the firm going three starts back, finishing ahead of Intello, who flattered him when 3rd in the Arc. Tough call.

29 Oct 2013 10:26 PM

Monarchos Matt

FYI I heard from a good source that Olympic Glory was not originally pointed for this race. He ran two weeks ago!!. The owner was the one that decided to come against the trainer's recommendation.

You may want to use your alternate.

30 Oct 2013 8:16 AM

Monarchos Matt,

I saw a video clip of Tap It Rich and he was getting out badly in his work.

I did not like him initially and now he is a toss.

Speedy Bob has a very nice alternative. I recently finalized my evaluation of the BCJ and the last colt I evaluated was New Years Day.

I did not pay much attention to him initially but I think with the expected fast pace, the race will coms back to three colts i.e., Bond Holder, Medal count and New Year's Day.

The record for the widest margin of victory in the BCJ belongs to the Street Cry colt Street Sense.

Street Cry is a world class sire  with his progenies scoring victories in the KD, BCC and Melbourne Cup and other big G1 races.

If you revisit his debut at 51/2F on synthetic he was regulated to last and closed under the whip like a freight train. Clearly 51/2F is not a trip for a Street Cry sired horse.

His next race was a 8F and he won handily. This is a dangerous colt flying under the radar.

If you do not like him, you should at least acknowledge the fact that when his sire produces a good one it should not be ignored.

30 Oct 2013 9:06 AM

Coldfacts, Monarchos Matt,

I second that

New Year's Day is the pick

30 Oct 2013 9:36 AM
Monarchos Matt


Thanks for the info. My concern is whether or not No Jet Lag can actually WIN the race. I don't want to confuse a potential winner with a horse that is merely a great way to spice up exotics. Olympic Glory on his best day is certainly capable of winning...but the quick turnaround for a race he wasn't targeting is certainly a concern.


Certainly New Year's Day is interesting based on his pedigree. However, I see two big knocks against him:

1) No dirt races.

2) If his last race is any indication, I would expect to see him on the pace, which I'd consider a negative against this group. That puts him outside of the conversation with regard to the other two horses you mentioned, Bond Holder and Medal Count, who will be running late. (And yes I do realize he defeated the former in his last start, but that was over a different surface in a race with a less contested pace.)

30 Oct 2013 10:17 AM

I am focusing on two horses for the Breeder Cup Dirt Mile. They are Alpha and Brujo De Olleros.

Obviously I will be deemed to be crazy but its only crazy people that wager on 1000lbs animals ridden by tiny humans armed with whips.

Alpha résumé reflects he is the most experienced in the field.  The dirt mile will be his 3rd at the distance but this should not be seen a negative.

His 1st attempt was as a 2YO in the G1 Champagne where he finished 2nd to Union Rags.

His 2nd attempt at the distance was as a 4YO in the G2 Godolphin Mile where he finished 5th to Soft Falling Rain.

Interestingly the blinkers were affixed for the 1st time in that effort and he led at a fast clip for 7F.

Since his return from Dubai the blinkers have been used twice. He won the G1 Woodward from gate to wire. He tried a similar strategy in the JCGC but could not sustain the fast pace he set in the 1st 8F (1.35.08).

He cuts back to 8F for his 3rd attempt at the distance. He is drawn at post #7 and with the speed he has been showing he should win the run to the 1st turn as the real speed in the race is drawn on the far outside.

He has 9F stamina at least as he won the Jim Dandy and Woodward.  If he wins the run to the 1st turn he will be tough to pass.

The 2012 Dirt Mile was won in a time of 1:35.34 by Tapizar who tracked the leader. Alpha recorded an 8F split in the JCGC of 1:35.08. He is therefore capable of going below 1:35 on the SA Park Speedway.

He has kept better company than most in the field and with the speed he has been showing lately he will be a tough horse to beat.

30 Oct 2013 11:00 AM
Monarchos Matt

"Obviously I will be deemed to be crazy but it's only crazy people that wager on 1000 lbs animals ridden by tiny humans armed with whips."

Ha, very well said Coldfacts. I don't think you are crazy, as this is a wide open race, but a quick look over Alpha's PPs raises what I consider to be a giant red flag:

In his last five races at 9f on dirt, he has won twice and finished off the board in the other three. Any common theme in the wins you ask? Both came on sloppy tracks. The losses? Fast tracks. That's enough for me...

I do, however, like the other horse you mentioned, Brujo de Olleros, to win the race.

30 Oct 2013 11:17 AM
Rusty Weisner

Thanks for the comments about post position, guys.  I agree, it's not a simple proposition to eliminate based on it.  In the Juvenile, though, it's decisive for me in relegating the two short-priced outside horses to just two more "possibles" (Havana has no margin for error), and I'm also using it in the turf sprint, where Mizdirection and Unbridled's Note had almost the exact same posts in another 14-horse field.

30 Oct 2013 11:22 AM

Monarchos Matt

For what it's worth I'm using Bright Thought and Z Approval as my alternates.

Probably Wise Dan is the single!

30 Oct 2013 11:23 AM
Rusty Weisner


That is useful information about Olympic Glory.  Since I have less to go on with Europeans, I tend to look for this stuff more.  I also tend to take trainers seriously when I sense they're irritated or fatalistic.  Vyjack's trainer had some interesting comments before the Derby, for example.

30 Oct 2013 11:24 AM
Rusty Weisner

Monarchos Matt,

I'm playing the P5 with Flashback and Dank.  I'll go wide in races 3 & 4.

30 Oct 2013 11:25 AM

Brujo De Olleros finished 2nd to Graydar in his last race. I wagered a Franklin on him to win that day but the internal fractions were too slow for him to pass Graydar in the stretch.

There is no Graydar in the field but that is not the significant issue with the chances of this horse.

I revisited the video of the race that Brujo De Olleros won that led Team Valor to acquire him. The surface on which he contested the race appeared very fast and similar to the SA Park surface.

I am of the opinion that the true potential of this 5YO will be seen on the SA Park Speedway as he appears to be at his best on tracks that are not deep..

30 Oct 2013 11:31 AM
Rusty Weisner

Monarchos Matt,

I'm very swayable on the Juvenile and am giving Coldfacts' suggestion a good look.  It's a race where you don't have the luxury of knowing dirt form.  See the glass as half-full:  that's going to give you the chance of a longshot on a horse that hasn't revealed his dirt form.  Also, you don't like Bond Holder much (I don't either, and he reminds of last year's disappointment, Power Broker), but if you're right he's the underlay because of his win on dirt.  I also don't agree that New Year's Day has to go for the lead because he's won that way once.  To me it just means he's fast and not at the mercy of pace, a nice thing in a horse you're betting on.  Lastly, can anyone give me opinions on the DelMar races:  how does form there translate to dirt, is it good for closers, etc.?

30 Oct 2013 11:37 AM
Rusty Weisner

Re: trainer comments -- there was a similar one about Diamond Bachelor:  the owners are American and want to see him win on dirt.

30 Oct 2013 11:40 AM

Monarchos Matt,

You are missing an important issue. Alpha appears to be a different horse with the blinkers added.

He has never gone a mile in either 1:36 or 1:35 before they were added.

Revisit the video of the 2012 BCC. You will note he was up with the leaders for 5F. His trainer stated he is better than 2012.

The JCGC was contested on a fast track. He set the pace for 8F and did not have the stamina to run 24 seconds for the last 2F to win.

If he does not lead he will have a good portion and will be in the mix for the win.

The Dirt Mile has never been won by a favorite.

30 Oct 2013 11:40 AM
Monarchos Matt

re: Post Position analysis

For what it's worth, DRF's Byron King tweeted this out yesterday:

Time from gate to first turn:

Dirt Mile- 10 seconds

Juvenile Dirt- 14 seconds

Juvenile Turf- 20 seconds

30 Oct 2013 11:47 AM

Monarchos Matt,

“No dirt races”  

Johannesburg, Wilko and Arazi won the BCJ with their 1st attempt on dirt.

Zdenyatta sired by Street Cry did not have a problem with dirt although the majority of her races were on synthetic.

“If his last race is any indication, I would expect to see him on the pace”

Classy horse have good pace. He was running against horses that were not very fast. The fractions were 23.32, 47.15, 1:11.86, 1:24.34, 1:36.93.

I am sure the mile split in the BCJ will be about 1:36. He will be in striking position to close on the leaders.

In his debut race he close from last in fractions of 21, 44.

30 Oct 2013 12:00 PM
Monarchos Matt


I actually don't like any of them much, ha. Bond Holder is actually my second choice currently despite his slowness, if that's any indication. So I'm being fairly consistent in my handicapping. But I do take your point- just because NYD hasn't run on dirt, it doesn't mean he can't run well on it.

30 Oct 2013 12:02 PM
Rusty Weisner

Monarchos Matt,

All the DRF handicappers like Untapable, for what it's worth.

30 Oct 2013 12:20 PM
Monarchos Matt


Hopefully that won't destroy her price. I'm hoping for 5-1 but that may be unlikely...

30 Oct 2013 12:23 PM


Nice tout on Alpha,

I'm thinking of using him instead of Goldencents or maybe both.

Since 2007 the winners were 2012 Tapizar 4 Caleb's Posse 3 Dakota Phone 5 Fartherland 4 Albert Maximus 4 Corinthian 4

I love 4YR olds in the mile.

Your thoughts?

30 Oct 2013 12:54 PM
Rusty Weisner

Monarchos Matt,

Also, I may be wrong, but the synth to dirt change is less suspect than turf to dirt, particularly on this circuit.  I really should skip the race, though.

I mentioned I'm playing the short undercard.  I'm hoping there are two weak favorites in the first race, the 6.5f turf course.   The first is a European off the plane.  The second is the only horse to have won on the course...but the only one to have raced on the course.  I'll take all but the 3. In R2 I'll take Flashback.  In the 3rd race, same course, I'll take the 6,12,13 and skip the favored 1.  In the 4th, the Juvenile Fillies, I'll take Artemis A, Secret Compass, Concave, Untapable, Sweet Reason, She's a Tiger.  Dank in the 5th.  $72 ticket.  Hopefully I'll be live going into the 4th and can hedge against Dank.

30 Oct 2013 12:57 PM

I love Untapable and she will be a part of my 5 horse exotic box wagers.

Secret Compass & Concave will also be in included.

The filly I am hoping will win is Rosalind. If she does it will make my day as I am going to key her on top in some of my wagers.

I concede she is not a very fast filly and will require a fast pace with a resulting melt down.

Her 3rd to Untapable in the Pocahontas was achieved with a sustained stretch run when she was left for dead when the leaders quickened approaching the top of the stretch.

In the gallop out she blew by Untapable in a jiffy.

Her 2nd to My Conquestadory in the Alcibiades was achieved lugging in but again she was resolute to the line without impacting the winner.

The dam line of Rosalind leans heavily towards turf. Her dam sire is the turf great, Theatrical. She she won her debut on turf at Ellis Park. She quicken like a turf horse and the extension in her stride was impressive.

The big chestnut filly has contested races on dirt, turf and synthetic.  

I hoping for a strong pace and a possible pace melt down that will allow he long strides to catch them on the line at a good price.

30 Oct 2013 1:19 PM
Rusty Weisner

Actually, I'll single the deserving second favorite, the 9, in R1.  The other two horses that ran with him up on the lead, including the race favorite, finished near last.  

30 Oct 2013 1:35 PM
Rusty Weisner

I was at the breederscup site yesterday where they had video of an interview with a guy who had the only winning ticket in the 1999 BC.  It cost $192.  That's 3x2x2x2x2x2.  He drew up the ticket with his friends the night before.  He was a pro who liked "action on every race."  Having his cake and eating it.  I'm not sure what the lesson here is.  Maybe my $9 P5 ticket will win me $1000.

30 Oct 2013 1:55 PM
Rusty Weisner

Monarchos Matt,

I just watched Tap It Rich's race.  I thought he looked great running past the entire stretched-out field after missing the break.  

30 Oct 2013 4:04 PM
Monarchos Matt


Wow you are really going all out here on this card. Hopefully it works out for you. I'm going to keep it to the Breeders' Cup races, which seem difficult enough! That seems like a decent Pick 5 play to me though, without having handicapped Flashback's race...If you're live to the Dank single, how will you hedge? Romantica to win?

I'm probably most excited to see how the Juvenile plays out than any other race simply because of all the discussion we've had about it on this board. I'm not even playing it that heavily but there seem to be a lot of differing opinions here. I'm sticking with Tap It Rich. I'm starting to go back on my original exacta key with Tap It Rich/ Havana, Strong Mandate, Bond Holder. Leaning towards removing both the wide speedsters and just boxing Tap It Rich and Bond Holder. Decisions, decisions....

30 Oct 2013 4:38 PM
Monarchos Matt


How many races do you plan to play 5 horse exacta boxes in? I usually do that in the Kentucky Derby, but I find that it is difficult from an expected value standpoint to spread an exacta wager that widely in races like some of these. I generally demand at least a double return on a theoretical exacta payoff (win odds * (win odds +1)) for the lowest possible outcome. So if I'm betting a 5 horse exacta box for $1, I require at least a $40 return for the lowest paying combination. This isn't a playable strategy for me in say, the Classic, where the theoretical exacta payoff on a GOD- MMM finish is $9.60 (1.6*6), and would actually show a loss on a "winning" bet.  

Just wondering how you structure these bets. I'm always interested in wagering strategy, and spend much more time devising my plays than I spend handicapping the races!

30 Oct 2013 4:45 PM
Rusty Weisner

Monarchos Matt,

I think that man's lesson was: bet every race and enjoy the action.

I can live with losing $9-$15 singling on the first leg of the P5.

I should stay away from the Juvenile, though.

I just took a gander at the Mile.  The only G1 winner here is Obviously, who looks vulnerable.   As for these interlopers, as they say in Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid:  Who are these guys? I think Wise Dan is going to kick their butts.

30 Oct 2013 4:51 PM
Rusty Weisner

Monarchos Matt,

My top preferences besides Dank are, unsurprisingly, Romantica and Tiz Flirtatious.  Then I'll take the older horses, Marketing Mix, Laughing and ludicrous longshot Lady of Shamrock.  

I will have a ticket with a "single" of the two "Dance" horses in the F&M sprint.  I think Dance Card is playable for the odds after a head-to-head loss to Dance to Bristol.

In the Turf Sprint I'll have a "single" of Mizdirection and Unbridled's Note.  I'll have an alternate ticket with them and four others:  Reneesgotzip, Boat Trip, Chips All In, Caracortado.  Looking at PP stats for this course, the inside is not statistically that bad, but everybody says it is, and last year's :  I'll roll the dice.  Anyway, as I mentioned, the top two last year were way "outside", like this year.

I'm going to look at the Sprint now, where I like Private Zone, but will have that as a single and an alternate ticket because the Sprint produces some longshots.

30 Oct 2013 4:59 PM
Rusty Weisner

Monarchos Matt,

You guys get in my head enough, so I shouldn't let the DRF guys get to me, but a couple of them like He Be Fire N Ice.  Huh?  I don't see it.

A couple also like Romantica.  I have to admit I do like this one as a potential equivalent of Dank, just looking at her pp's.  And she's out of Banks Hill, Fabre's horse, too.  I'm still tempted to make a Dank/Romantica "single".

30 Oct 2013 5:04 PM
Rusty Weisner

Monarchos Matt,

It's funny, but the most heavily represented race Saturday is the 6.5f turf race.  There are three of them.

30 Oct 2013 5:12 PM
Rusty Weisner

Olympic Glory, of course, is a G1 (Silver Max only on synthetic).  But you guys have sown enough doubt with me about this one, and after last year I treat Euro form somewhat skeptically (though I still like Romantica and The Fugue).  Shipping over and winning in two weeks -- been done before?

30 Oct 2013 5:34 PM
Rusty Weisner

Monarchos Matt,

There are a lot of tosses in the Sprint.  

I do not like Fast Bullet.  I might forgive the performance in the slop, but it came with a trainer switch to a losing trainer.  And no races since.  I think the longest odds horse I like is Gentlemen's Bet.  I think Secret Circle is possible but  doesn't seem like a great bet.  Private Zone, Justin Phillip, Gentlemen's Bet.  

30 Oct 2013 5:52 PM

Monarchos Matt,

My 5 horse exacta box wagers usually exclude the 1st and 2nd betting choice. I usually wage $100 on said bet.

With Tri/s I usually key the horse that looks the best with either current form or back form with the entire field.

I keyed Capo Bostone in the Kings Bishop with the entire field and the Tri paid $16,000 for a $2 wager. That wager was $156 for a $1 wager.

I do not play the gambling. There are several horses that I will be keying with the entire field for Trifectas. They will not be fancied horses but based on my research they are capable of wining.

So far this year I have hit several Trifectas. Apart from the $16K, I have hit two for $7K and some for $4K & $3K.

I am not afraid to lose and I have confidence in my research and what my eyes observe.

If either Wise Dan or GOD wins I am going to lose a lot of money. I am confident neither will but their presence in the race will make for lucrative pay outs.

In fact, I do not believe Wise Dan will hit the board. He is no Goldakova and even she could not finish in the top two as a 6YO.

If am a wrong I move on to the next race.

Mike Smith will have great day up to the Classic and will cause GOD to be the overwhelming favorite.

DOW with Lasix added  will be mean animal that will not be taking prisoners.

30 Oct 2013 7:22 PM

Rusty Weisner,

Sum Of The Parts led the sprint in 2012. He was a 3YO then and is now a 4YO.

He will have to be caught.

30 Oct 2013 7:25 PM
Monarchos Matt


Although I won't be playing it, I can actually see the angle on He B Fire N Ice. That's the horse for the complete pace meltdown scenario. He likes to sit back and make one run. The other horse in that race that likes to run that way is Za Approval, but the Beyer that He B Fire N Ice just posted on this track (104) is a couple points better than anything Za Approval has ever done--he's a nice horse but runs consistently in the 100-102 range and that won't be enough here I don't think. I'm tossing all the speed here. Still, I think it would be tough to make a case for He B Fire N Ice to win the race from far off the pace when you have stalkers like Wise Dan and Olympic Glory in the race that are in a completely different class entirely, and I still like No Jet Lag the best of the likely double digit odds horses...I know his ML is 8-1 but I'd be surprised to see him go off shorter than Obviously even after what happened last time out.

I'm still undecided about what to do here for Pick 4 purposes but I do know that you can't single Wise Dan. Have to use another horse, the value will be well worth it if you're correct. Olympic Glory seems to have so many negatives, but I still can't get past the fact that he ran head of Intello at 8f on firm turf--that one came back to run 3rd in the Arc, remember.

I think that Olympic Glory is a more likely winner than No Jet Lag, but feel like he is the type of horse that will either win the race or be off the board. No Jet Lag I could see finishing 2nd or 3rd but would really need things to fall perfectly to pull the upset. So I'm leaning towards using Olympic Glory in the Pick 4 still, and placing outright bets on No Jet Lag.

30 Oct 2013 7:26 PM

Rusty Weisner,

Turf Sprint - No horse in the field has the explosive closing kick that Capo Bostone possess.

He won his debut on a synthetic track over 5 1/2F in 1:03.94. It it is possible he will like turf.

If he is close enough when they get to the bottom of the hill, listen for his name and step to the cashier.

30 Oct 2013 7:32 PM
Monarchos Matt


Going to have to disagree with you on Fast Bullet. I think Private Zone is the winner there (I thought that before the POTB tragedy as well), but if there's an upsetter, it could be Fast Bullet. I'm using those two only in the Pick 4.

Fast Bullet's last race on a wet track is a complete toss. It was the wrong distance as well. Go back and watch his victory in the True North, where he utterly dominated Justin Phillip. He posted a 110 Beyer in that race, which tops the field. If he gets loose on this track, watch out.

I will play a three horse exacta with those two and Justin Phillip to hedge my Pick 4 in case he surprises me and ends up on top. Then Win/ Place money on Private Zone. I'm not buying into the Secret Circle hype. Gentlemen's Bet is an interesting one, but I feel like he is just a touch below the top three on class. Wouldn't surprise me but looking elsewhere.

30 Oct 2013 7:32 PM
Pedigree Ann

Coldfacts - you missed the point.

Yes, Bold Ruler was a multiple G1-type winner at 10f; but in the decade and more that his offspring had been racing, NONE of his highly-rated sons, several out of Princequillo mares as Sec was, had won the Kentucky Derby - indeed, none even placed. There was plenty of evidence that Bold Rulers who were high-class at 2 or early at 3 were not Derby material.

People were not working from pedigree but from what they had observed watching the races over the decade of the 1960s.

30 Oct 2013 7:44 PM
Monarchos Matt


Sounds like a good strategy to me. You strike me as more of an exotics bettor and Rusty seems to concentrate more on multi-race strategies. I fall somewhere in between. Just always interesting to get different perspectives. The wagering part to me is the most difficult part of the game. I'd much rather be wrong about my handicapping but bet a race properly based upon it than to handicap correctly and then bet a race inefficently based on those conclusions. Either way I lose money, but the one is much more maddening than the other.

You seem pretty certain that you can keep Wise Dan and Game on Dude out of the winner's circle. If that is the case you will have plenty of opportunity to capitalize. I will be using them in multi-race wagers, but will consider adding either Olympic Glory or No Jet Lag in the Mile, and adding Mucho Macho Man, Palace Malice and Declaration of War in the Classic.

30 Oct 2013 10:27 PM
Monarchos Matt


I think the Filly and Mare Sprint is one of the best value races on the card. I think Groupie Doll has to be used defensively in multi-race wagers but can be beaten in outright bets for the top two spots. I'm looking at an exacta box with both the Dance girls and Book Review. Will use all 4 in the Pick 3, but only matters if Dank wins.

There's an argument to be made for a lot of these, but I feel Sweet Lulu will be overbet off the cutback angle and I just can't get past how much slower her speed figs are than the top contenders here. If you want to play the cutback angle, I agree that Dance Card is the better bet--referring to her 2012 form of course, as her last race was an obvious tune-up for this. Teddy's Promise is the only other that really concerns me based on the horse for the course angle and her recent score at SA, but she figures to be part of the early pace and couldn't hold on last year. Tossing Judy the Beauty who will be overbet off her last race, and as you noted, has never won on dirt. She's also never won beyond 6.5f.

Dance to Bristol remains my best value bet for outright bets.

30 Oct 2013 11:09 PM
Mary Zinke

BC Upsets, chalks, picks, etc.

Day 1:

Golden State Juvenile: Tamarando.

Twilight Derby: Rising Legend.

Marathon: Blueskies and London Bridge.

Dirt Mile: Fed Biz, Broadway Empire, Hymn Book, Holy Lute.

JV Fillies Turf: Clenor, Sky Painter, Testa Rossi.

Distaff: Royal Delta.


Day 2:

Senator Ken Maddy: Pontchatrain.

Juvenile Fillies: Untapable.

F&M Turf: Lady Of Shamrock, Marketing Mix, Dank, Tiz Flirtatious. Jessie: Kitten's Dumplings.

F&M Sprint: Groupie Doll, Dance To Bristol, Book Review, Great Hot.

Turf Sprint: Boat Trip, Reneesgotzip, Caracortado, Unbridled's Note.

Turf: Indy Point, Little Mike, Point Of Entry, Real Solution.

Sprint: Justin Phillip

Mile: He Be Fire N Ice, Wise Dan, Obviously, Silver Max.

Classic: Game On Dude, Ron The Greek, Fort Larned, Flat Out, MMM.

I didn't do the JV Dirt or Turf.  Gotta pack. See you guys/gals on maybe Tuesday. Could be earlier if I'm right about any of these.

31 Oct 2013 5:34 AM
Mary Zinke

I had that Brujos in the middle of my Dirt Mile picks. Don't know him too well,so I forgot him.

31 Oct 2013 6:24 AM
Rusty Weisner

Monarchos Matt,

My betting "strategy" for the BC, if you can call it that, is throwing money around right and left and avoiding verticals except maybe an exacta here or there.  If I didn't know you all as well as I do I'd be embarrassed to admit it.  One of the things I'll be doing, for example, is betting for/against singles in the hopes that one of them wins and one or more of the biggies has a bad day or bad racing luck.  Right now, my singles are nearly all favorites; not very incisive handicapping.  The ones I think I am going to try to go against are Havana, Sweet Reason, Game on Dude.  

That all said, nailing two singles, even favorites, over the course of the day is usually enough to make a profit -- hope for luck getting a longshot home in the right sequence.  As a reminder, the average P3 payout on a 50-CENT bet in the past three years has been $300, $2500, $400.

I'm grouping horses into "likely winners", "possible winners" and "ALL" inclusions.  The handicapper in me wants to stick to "likely" and "possible" winners but I may try the "throwouts" on some tickets by punching ALL; unpickable horses like Dakota Phone and Court Vision are ever present in my mind.  For example, in a P3 ticket I might do a single-possible-possible but also do alternate tickets single-ALL-possible or single-possible-ALL.  

For me the Turf and the Sprint have the largest number of throwouts -- I think this will allow me an affordable P4 single of The Fugue where I can go against all of Private Zone, Wise Dan and GOD and hope that one or more of them loses. In the P3 that starts after the Turf I'll play at least three tickets.

31 Oct 2013 10:31 AM
Rusty Weisner

Mary Zinke,

I am dying to know what you like about He Be Fire N Ice.  I'm also interested to see that you like Lady of Shamrock, who I'm playing.  

31 Oct 2013 10:36 AM
Rusty Weisner

Monarchos Matt,

Those are the exactas I would play in the F&M sprint.  You get good odds on Dance Card, at least.

You were right that Sweet Lulu is a wiseguy pick.  I like to give one or two 3yo's a chance on the day, though, and there doesn't seem to be a lot of early speed (lots of turnbacks).

Everyone likes Untapable, Mary Zinke most recently.    

31 Oct 2013 10:47 AM
Rusty Weisner

And because Picking Losers really is part of the game...

Saturday throwouts (so far):

JuvF: Designer Legs, Ria Antonia, Scandalous Act

FMTurf: Quschchi, Emollient

FMSprint: Renee's Titan, Starship Truffles, Ismene

TSprint: Jeranimo, Rock Me Baby, Tightend Touchdown, Handsome Mike, Havelock, Spring to the Sky, Dimension

Juvenile: beats me

Turf: Vagabond Shoes, Teaks North, Twilight Eclipse, Skyring, Tale of a Champion

Sprint: The Lumber Guy, Majestic Stride, Sum of the Parts, Wine Police, Trinniberg, Laugh Track

Mile: Silentio, Bright Thought, He Be Fire N Ice, Cristoforo Colombo, Za Approval

Classic: Last Gunfighter, Paynter, Planteur

31 Oct 2013 11:19 AM
Mary Zinke

Rusty, He hasn't run a bad race in a while.  Runs with the top Cali turf miler Obviously, is an Unusual Heat, and they love 1 m Cali T, and huge odds.  Have you seen him? Nice be-hind. I watch calracing every week, so I get to know the Cali horses mostly. Hard to access other live racing since I live in a "non-voting" state, Az.  Those turf Mile picks are probably not that order, by confidence. I wouldn't throw out Obviously over 1 loss, and I would throw out Wise Dan's loss last time. Went with Silver Max over that newbie 3 year old, but maybe he is that good. Sorry, forgot the upstarts name already--won the SA turf prep.  Late-Jessie will be ticked off. gtg.

31 Oct 2013 11:34 AM
Mary Zinke

Yep--She just called. Time to hit the road.  

Rusty, Lady Of Shamrock is one of my girls; thought she could win this last year when she was 3. BS of failed pacesetters, too fast, TOO slow(not exactly Bullet Train clones), Blinkers on and off, ridden side-saddle, who knows, and now Sadler is back to just training her finally. Last race was "a prep" throwing in one lol, sorry, Phil.

Untapable, green, gleeful, bay Tapits are gorgeous(girl comment). Oh yah, fast.

Have fun watching the BC races, all.

31 Oct 2013 11:41 AM

It has been reported the 6YO Ron The Greek is out of the BCC.

Well there are two senior citizen left GOD and Flat Out.

31 Oct 2013 11:50 AM

Rusty Weisner,

Sum of the Parts/Laugh Track are not throw-outs.

Sum of the Parts: Revisit his effort in the 2012 Sprint. He was a 3YO then.

Laugh Track: A Distorted Humor colt out of a Tough Gold mare is sprinting. If there is a pace meltdown he will gabble them up.

Cristoforo Colombo: Never dismiss a horse trained by AD.

31 Oct 2013 12:01 PM
Rusty Weisner


Thanks, but my banker says no.

Sum of the Parts had better form as a 3yo.  His only graded stakes wins are G3 on synthetic.  His 4th place finish in last year's BC (the only graded stakes he's contested) may have been bias- aided.  Laugh Track finished up the track in his one dirt performance.  Another G3-er on a synthetic track and he had to go back home to Canada to win that.

I won't dismiss AO'B's Declaration of War, but Cristoforo Colombo is an outclassed horse along for the ride.

31 Oct 2013 12:18 PM

Poor Ron the Greek! I was really looking forward to seeing him compete.

31 Oct 2013 12:21 PM
Rusty Weisner


Me, too, though I was looking forward to betting against him.  

I'm waiting for your picks and insights.  I'll need the help.

31 Oct 2013 12:38 PM
Rusty Weisner

Monarchos Matt,

Nice work on the chat.  You seemed to have caught that gentleman at a loss for words on Sweet Lulu.  I'm glad you like Dance Card (tip to Coldfacts for making me look hard at this one).

31 Oct 2013 12:40 PM
Rusty Weisner

Monarchos Matt,

Going to take Reneesgotzip, too.  That's some "single".  I figure one of last year's top three, all aiming for this, will win it.

31 Oct 2013 12:42 PM
Rusty Weisner

I'll take Baffert's two in the Juvenile.  Action.

31 Oct 2013 12:49 PM

Rusty Weisner,

Laugh Track was taken out of his game going that long.

I looked at his strides on dirt and they appeared quite proficient.

This colt is ideally drawn out side the speed and can gradually drop in.

He is a live outsider.

Sum Of The Parts probably had problems in 2013. He will be on the lead with Secret Circle and he is quite capable of making the frame.

31 Oct 2013 12:51 PM

Rusty Weisner,

Laugh Track was taken out of his game going that long.

I looked at his strides on dirt and they appeared quite proficient.

This colt is ideally drawn out side the speed and can gradually drop in.

He is a live outsider.

Sum Of The Parts probably had problems in 2013. He will be on the lead with Secret Circle and he is quite capable of making the frame.

31 Oct 2013 12:51 PM
Monarchos Matt


Thanks. Were you in the chat? Seemed like a lot of people throwing out horse names without angles. Then again I'm trying to do about 10 things at once over here.

Lots to respond to, give me a couple of hours or so.

I agree, cold tip by Coldfacts on Dance Card. Still deciding between her and DTB for my outright play, but both will be used in exactas and Pick 3s.

Growing more concerned about Romantica by the hour. Trying to figure best way to single Dank but hedge profitably.

31 Oct 2013 1:40 PM

Rusty Weisner;

I'm not quite done handicapping the Saturday races yet -- many of them have me stumped, to say the least! -- but I'm more-or-less finished with Friday's races, so here are a few quick thoughts on each of those races . . .

Marathon: I really want to like Ever Rider in this race, but his front-running style might not be best for a race of this distance, and he was not nearly as accomplished in his native country as Calidoscopio was, and he'll be only a fraction of Calidoscopio's odds. Worldly is well-bred for this distance and should be able to grind on longer than most of his rivals. Pool Play intrigues me as the only horse in the race to have won at this distance, and maybe his recently-developed habit of losing contact with the field early on will prove beneficial in this very lengthy race.

Juvenile Turf: I feel like Bobby's Kitten is by far the best of the American hopefuls, and I believe he has an excellent chance at upstaging the European invaders, of which I like Giovanni Boldini best. Being proven around left-handed turns is a major plus for me, and he third-place finish to the highly-regarded Toormore in the Vincent O'Brien National Stakes (Ire-I) was respectable enough. For the same reason, I like Outstrip, who ran Toormore to a neck in the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood, proving in that race that he can negotiate a tight turn, albeit a right-handed one. Fans of Poker Player might want to take a look at All Cash, the maiden that finished a close fourth in the Bourbon Stakes. Granted, he didn't quicken as well as I would have liked in the stretch, but he didn't get the best of trips, and is definitely bred for the turf.

Dirt Mile: The fact that Verrazano, Pants On Fire, and Goldencents drew the three outside post positions could make this race ripe for an upset, and with that in mind, I'm leaning toward Golden Ticket. Shortening up in distance, and with a fast pace in front of him, I expect to see Golden Ticket save ground early and come running late under Joel Rosario. Hymn Book also intrigues me off of that promising third-place finish in the Kelso Handicap, and Taptowne could be a factor if he breaks cleanly and makes the lead from the rail.

Juvenile Fillies Turf: The outside draw for Testa Rossi doesn't bother me nearly as much as the outside draw for My Conquestadory, as I expect Testa Rossi to drop back early on and save ground before rallying in the homestretch. On sheer talent, she looks like the best of the Americans to me, and she proved in France that she can win with Lasix, which is a plus. However, the European pair of Al Thakhira and Chriselliam both drew good gate positions, and if they can get the jump on Testa Rossi turning for home, they should prove tough to catch. Vorda merits respect as a group I winner, but having never raced beyond six furlongs -- and never around a turn, for that matter -- I'm having trouble warming up to her chances. That said, this is one of those races where I can't toss anyone with confidence. Street Sailing could be a nice longshot, as her turn-of-foot at Keeneland was exceptional, slow pace or not.

Distaff: Royal Delta should be able to make the lead while breaking from the inside of Beholder, and I don't believe she'll be relinquishing it. Princess of Sylmar can certainly win this, and it's great to have her in the race, but I feel like she'll need a destructive pace duel from Beholder and Royal Delta in order to win, as the latter two have been training so well for this race that I find it hard to envision them both losing.

31 Oct 2013 2:27 PM
Rusty Weisner


JuvF: Sweet Reason, Untapable

FMTurf: Romantica, Dank

FMSprint: Dance to Bristol, Dance Card, Book Review

Turf Sprint: Mizdirection, Unbridled's Note, Reneesgotzip

Juvenile: Tap It Rich, New Year's Day

Turf: The Fugue

Sprint: Private Zone

Mile: Wise Dan

Classic:  Mucho Macho Man, Declaration of War, Palace Malice, Game on Dude, Fort Larned

Kind of a lame list of favorites, but through the miracle of 50-cent betting I'm playing against these horses as much as I am for them, with the exception of The Fugue and Romantica/Dank, with whom I'm playing P4 tickets. Drawn up about $1200 of tickets, a lot of which are contingent on the outcome of previous races.  So that's how much I could lose.  But I'm confident I'm coming out ahead.  I don't care if it's ugly.

31 Oct 2013 2:52 PM
Rusty Weisner


I'm not playing Friday, but will look forward to your picks.

Note about Juv fillies turf and horse not going beyond 6f.  In the BC a couple years back I had a rolling P3 sequence where I debated whether to single Wrote or Caspar Netscher (who hadn't gone in a route)...and I chose wrong, costing me $2000.  This year I'll be taking both.

31 Oct 2013 3:01 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Three downgrades of note in the BC:

Secret Compass -  a 'with Flow' winner.

Tap It Rich - a 'with Flow' winner in a MSW no less. I'd be eagerly betting against this one in an Alw1x race, never mind a BC race.

Private Zone - his win in the Vosburgh was aided by an Extreme for Speed', and he still barely held.  Expecting far less than his best Saturday.

Good luck to all.

31 Oct 2013 3:49 PM
Rusty Weisner

Plod Boy Phil,

There you are.  Thanks.  I will be taking these last two seriously under advisement.

31 Oct 2013 3:54 PM
Plod Boy Phil


Not in a position to give out too much information,  but plenty to be garnished from the three DGs presented.

After last Saturday's late Pick 4 at Belmont, I'm not expecting to catch lightning in a bottle this weekend. Our 'upgrades only P4' cost $4 (1x2x1x2,  and returned $3,826.

Good times.

31 Oct 2013 4:08 PM
Monarchos Matt

Plod Boy Phil,

Oh no! Just when I thought I had it all figured out. Was planning to make a strong play on Tap It Rich and Private Zone. Will re-evaluate based on this information.

31 Oct 2013 4:09 PM
Rusty Weisner

Plod Boy Phil,

I looked at Tap It Rich's race and he made up most of the ground he had lost at the start by the half mile.  The second place finisher looked more obviously to benefit from the pace.  But this is a race I'd like to be talked off of...

31 Oct 2013 4:12 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Matt -

Have had my BC work done for a couple days now but hesitated in presenting Flow opinions for fear of muddying the already murky waters.


31 Oct 2013 4:12 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Rusty -

I always like it when 'with Zip' winners like TIR have trouble at the start.  I recall a horse last spring by the name of Market Quote .  This filly won her debut with the aid of an Extreme for Closers - she too broke far behind her field.  She returned as the odds on favorite to win an Alw1x race and was defeated. To my knowledge, she has yet to win again.

31 Oct 2013 4:18 PM
Rusty Weisner

Monarchos Matt,

PBP can be wrong.  I'm inclined to be warned off Private Zone simply because he's chalk, but this is the fastest of these horses.  He will have the lead and on a track like last year's he can win.

31 Oct 2013 4:22 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Rusty -

'PBP can be wrong'....I second that emotion !


31 Oct 2013 4:28 PM
Rusty Weisner

Plod Boy Phil,


Nevertheless...I just looked at the chart for Market Quote.  Seems different to me; didn't make up any ground during the early contentious pace; TIR did.

We'll see if I'm willing to bet you're wrong.

31 Oct 2013 4:28 PM
Rusty Weisner

I need to get two more nights of sleep on all this.  The way will become apparent to me on waking Saturday morning.

31 Oct 2013 4:32 PM


When Secret Compass met She's A Tiger in the (G1) Debutant, She’s A Tiger previously finished 2nd in the (G2) Sorrento. In addition, she had two victories from her first two starts.

Secret Compass  entered the Debutant off a MSW victory. She’s A Tiger was therefore the more accomplished of the two. It is therefore not surprising that she was 10L behind and was beaten 4L.

When the fillies met again in the G1) Chandelier, She’s A Tiger had 3 victories including a G1 and runner up finish in a G2. Secret Compass had a MSW victory and a 4th place finished in the Debutant.

Her victory over the more accomplished G1 winner results in a down grade.  

That does not compute!

31 Oct 2013 10:40 PM
Monarchos Matt


True, I can't let those pieces of information completely talk me out of my gameplan at this late hour, although I find them interesting nonetheless.

I'll justify sticking with my plays as follows:

I can see why Tap It Rich is a downgrade. I actually agree with that. Funny thing is that I think he is going to see the same stalker friendly scenario here, perhaps even tenfold. This one of the weakest Juvenile fields I can ever remember, and if ever there was a year to take a shot on a lightly raced maiden winner, this is it. He benefited from a pace meltdown in his debut and he is going to benefit from an even bigger one Saturday. I hope.

Private Zone I have a tougher time grasping why he is a downgrade to begin with. It looks to me like he set pretty impressive fractions and fought back and held gamely after being briefly challenged/ passed in the stretch. He got eyeballed and he won. And this is his 3rd off the layoff. And he's been working like a monster. And he has the second highest Beyer in the field on the upswing of a form cycle. I don't know, this is probably the race I'm least confused by. The only horse I can see beating him is Fast Bullet. I'll play those two in exactas with Justin Phillip but I feel like there is a large gap between those three and the rest of the field.

31 Oct 2013 11:36 PM

DIRT MILE: I am intrigued my Holy Lute and believe he is a very solid longshot.

His sire is the two times Breeder Cup Sprint winner and his dam was sired by the great Holy Bull.

The way he covers ground is beauty to see. He has tactical speed and is very resolute in the last two furlongs of his races.

He was produced by a lightly raced well bred mare and that’s all I need to know.

His connections are probably the only ones that know how good this colt is. It is therefore not surprising that they have chosen this tough spot for colt who broke his maiden in August 2013.

Based on his almost perfect conformation and the effortless manner in which his energy efficient strides cover ground, I have no option but to include him in my exotic wagers.

NB: If his price is worth the risk I will be making a W/P wager.

01 Nov 2013 9:23 AM
Forbidden Apple

3 Plays on B.C. Friday:

Race 8- win bet on #4 Brujo de Olleros

Race 9- across the board bet on #9 Dancing House

Race 10- straight exacta, #4 Royal Delta over #3 Close Hatches

01 Nov 2013 9:26 AM

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