Use Brisnet's stats today for stars of tomorrow

If you're playing the Stars of Tomorrow cards on Sunday at either Belmont Park or Churchill Downs then the following hyperlinked information from Brisnet.com is required for handicapping all the debut runners, surface switches, and stretch outs common among two-year-old racing: Ultimate PPs, American Produce Records (APR) Online, and Bruno With The Works.

Together, they give you the clearest picture of who can outrun his/her odds in these types of races. And that phrase--outrun his/her odds--is important because we're all capable of reading the toteboard. I.e., we don't need Ultimate PPs or a good pedigree or a workout report to know that a debut runner is live at 3-to-5, but maybe that information can land us on the 20-to-1 who fills out an exotic or the confidence to single here and go deep elsewhere or toss the favorite altogether!

APR Online allows you to search by dam, foal, or race date (image at left). The race date function is an invaluable time saver because you don't have to enter in each horse's name. You simply load the date, track, and race, and all the entries along with their pedigrees pops up. Then you can click through and drill down to find the information you need to make wagering decisions more informed than your competition using other products.

I am writing this not having seen the workout report from Bruno for either track. That's often the last piece of the puzzle since it's made available the morning of the race. My simple method for handicapping with his information is to upgrade 4-star workouts, downgrade 1-star workouts (often all the way to an "X" if it was the last workout and within 10 days of this race), and not do anything w/ 2- or 3- star workouts unless this horse has shown 1- or 4-star workouts previously (indicating that s/he might be progressing or regressing, respectively).

Race 3 on Sunday at Churchill offers the type of horse who doesn't have everything going her way but enough to warrant a play at the odds.

#3 And You Can has a recognizable name and connections. She is the half sister to Kentucky Oaks winner Believe You Can and sports the same owner (Brereton Jones), trainer (Larry "no relation" Jones), and jockey (Rosie Napravnik) as that top horse. That Believe You Can won the Kentucky Oaks is cool, but what's more germane to this race is that she also won as a two-year-old, as did three other siblings.

The question you have to ask yourself as a bettor is whether that kind of pedigree power on the dam side is enough to make up for the fact that And You Can's sire, Istan, only throws 2% debut winners, which is an awful figure.

In this case, if Bruno tells me this one has shown some ability in the morning, I'd forgive the sire stat because a stallion like Istan hasn't been covering mares the likes of El Fasto. If she moves this sire up at all, then than 2% has less meaning. The deciding factor for me (for now, until I see Bruno) is that El Fasto's dam, the Halo mare Taegu, also produced Classic Elegance, a two-time graded stakes winner as a two-year-old who herself produced a pair of two-year-old winners. This is the type of information that APR Online provides beyond the Ultimate PPs.

Another thing APR Online has is detailed sire stats. Istan has sired 3% debut winners but 20% two-year-old winners. For those of us who play regularly this is important information because even if And You Can loses here, she's certainly one to watch as a two-year-old given her pedigree and that Istan isn't great with debut runners.

We'll be back next week with plenty of Breeders' Cup information, but for now make sure to check out all the great stuff for this weekend, including FREE Pick 4 PPs for the $200,000 Canadian International sequence and FREE Daily Selections full-card analysis with best bets for Sunday at Woodbine.

And speaking of Breeders' Cup information, the Brisnet.com Special Reports Page has you covered on that front.

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