The Brisnet.com Ultimate Guide To Picking Horses On Top

One of my cause célèbre is to rally against the need to PICK A WINNER in important races. Any horse is capable of winning. A handicapper's job is to pick winners, but a horse player's job is to balance the chances of a win with the odds and bankroll.

But it's Breeders' Cup Saturday, and just as everyone wants to know your Kentucky Derby pick, there's definitely an onus to be able to pick one horse per race. I can't quite do that in all races, but here is my road map for Saturday's races.

Come up with your own roadmap by visiting Brisnet.com for great Breeders' Cup info like Spotlight Selections, wagering strategy, and workout reports.

Race 1: I won't try to completely beat Love In The Desert, but he'll take a ton of money off the international form, and the horse to his outside, Toowindytohaulrox already has a win at the course and distance, which is huge going down the hill, and Joe Talamo up doesn't hurt. He almost upset the first race on Friday at a huge price up the rail down the hill. TOP PICK: #9 Toowindytohaulrox

Race 2: Flashback will be as close to a universal single on most Pick 5 tickets as you'll find, and he'll easily be the weekend's biggest favorite. The only thing that beats him is not being ready off the bench and maybe the rail, but he stands super tall against these. I'll get cute with 2, 3, 4 on some very thin Pick 3 tix, but Flashback looks good. TOP PICK: #1 Flashback

Race 3: We go from a universal single to a universal spread race. Deep pockets will use "ALL" and not think twice. I'm going to be 5 to 7 deep on my main Pick 5 ticket, but from a TOP PICK standpoint, I'll swing for the fences with #8 Minds Eye, who has a won on the course and ran well between horses last time off a slow (for down the hill) pace. TOP PICK: #8 Minds Eye

Race 4: I'm a believer in the New York form among two-year-olds this year, so the Frizette exacta will be a big part of my multi-race tickets, but I see no reason to flip the script on those top two here, so Artemis Agrotera is the tab with a style that should play well here, and Lezcano already blew up the tote board once on Friday with a great ride. Not that AA will blow up the toteboard here, but clearly the NY-based jock knows where to be on this strip. TOP PICK: #1 Artemis Agrotera

Race 5: I thought Dank put in one of the best performances of the year when winning the Beverly D., and if trainer Sir Michael Stoute has been pointing for this rather than not running because of an issue then no reason to think she can't replicate that performance against a division that hasn't wowed me other than her. TOP PICK: #1 Dank

Race 6: This one is tough, not because I like a bunch but because I like two about even. It's tough for me to separate Teddy's Promise and Judy the Beauty--both are 6-to-1 on the morning line and both come in here with a win off a typical prep. Pen to my head, though, I'll go with Judy The Beauty, who won the same race Groupie Doll did last year and is by the hot sire Ghostzapper. TOP PICK: #9 Judy the Beauty

Race 7: No hemming and hawing here. My best bet of the weekend is in this race with $4 Reneesgotzip, who would have been my pick regardless of which sprint race she entered. She's always been well meant, but more important is getting quicker in these types of races, and while there are horses who want the lead in this race, none are faster than this one. They'll be coming for her late, but I think it'll be not enough to catch her. TOP PICK: #4 Reneesgotzip

Race 8: I already referenced my love for the New York form among the two-year-olds, and while #13 Havana and #14 Strong Mandate will absolutely be on my "A" tickets, I also have to use #12 Diamond Bachelor, who has impressed in the morning and will have no problem with this surface and distance given the War Front-Pulpit pedigree. TOP PICK: #12 Diamond Bachelor

Race 9: I have a lot of respect for the Irish Champion Stakes, so I won't try to beat The Fugue on top. I won't let Little Mike beat me too badly and Point of Entry is as good as these at his best, and Indy Point is by my favorite sire (the late Indygo Shiner), so they'll feature prominently as well, but I do think class kills here. TOP PICK: #7 The Fugue

Race 10: The Sprint is short on talent but long on actual championship implications because the way this year has gone in this division, whoever wins this race will earn the Eclipse Award. It's a competitive race (my preferred word to "wide open), but I'll actually lean toward a shorter price for the top tab in Private Zone, who (along w/ Justin Phillip on the dreaded rail) has the top last-out Brisnet Speed Rating. He's similar to Game On Dude for me in that I doubt the value will be there for straight wagering, but in a race where many will spread, I'll lean on him a bit for prices elsewhere. TOP PICK: #7 Private Zone

Race 11: I'm not going to try to beat Wise Dan. His Woodbine Mile is a top three performance this year along with Game On Dude's Santa Anita Handicap and Pacific Classic. I'm not thrilled he lost last out considering everyone says he's "better on Polytrack" but Silver Max is no slouch, and the firm turf out here, to me, suits Wise Dan's style best. TOP PICK: #8 Wise Dan

Race 12: I've written ad nauseum on Game On Dude by this point, so I'll let the drum beat echo a bit rather than beating it harder. I know I'm setting myself up for egg on my face by picking a chalk a lot of people are against. I'll use others, but I do think at his best he is the best. TOP PICK: #9 Game On Dude

To recap, top-down (as they say in harness racing) my top picks are 9-1-8-1-1-9-4-12-7-7-8-9. For PPs, other picks, workout information, and more, visit the Brisnet.com Breeders' Cup reports page.

61 Comments

Leave a Comment:

Kevin

Contest Picks for Saturday

Juvy Fillies:  Artemus

F&M Turf:  Tiz Flirtatious

F&M Sprint:  Sweet Lulu

Turf Sprint:  Caracortado

Juvy: Dance with Fate

Turf:  Big Blue Kitten

Sprint:  Secret Circle (also my big real bet of the day)

Mile:  He be Fire and Ice

CLassic:  MMM

01 Nov 2013 10:46 PM
Rusty Weisner

Kevin,

These are all gutsy picks.  If even two of them win you are going to make a lot of money.  Good luck.

I originally liked Caracortado as a longshot pick, but he's a wiseguy choice now.  I throw up my hands on this race and will likely go six wide with no single ticket: Unbridled's Note, Reneesgotzip, Mizdirection, Chips All In, Boat Trip, Caracortado.  All the specialists, covering all running styles.

I like Tiz Flirtatious, too -- I think she was compromised in the last race but still won.  I like her style to challenge the disrespected Laughing.

Sweet Lulu rates a better chance with this track.  

I took a look at Dance with Fate, but couldn't hold on despite a final :26-something, but I suppose he now rates a chance given the track.

I don't get He be Fire and Ice, but Mary Zinke likes him, too.  He'll be on long P3 tickets.

That's a bold play on Secret Circle, good luck.  I'd be eager to hear what you like.  I him with other obvious picks, but may play a little extra on Gentlemen's Bet; just looks eligible to break out.

I didn't like MMM until the track bias became clear.  I don't like that he's never won at the distance and is coming back quickly for him.

02 Nov 2013 9:04 AM
TnT

Rosalind

Romantica

Judy the beauty

Mizdirection

Strong mandate

The fugue

Fast bullet

No jet lag

Declaration of war

Only betting 2 races pontchatrain, and declaration of war win plus super key all.

Good luck

02 Nov 2013 11:12 AM
TnT

If romantica stays at 6-1, I will play her as well,  she was made for this race.

02 Nov 2013 11:22 AM
-Keelerman

With Caracortado having scratched from the Turf Sprint, I'll change my contest selection to Rock Me Baby.

02 Nov 2013 12:08 PM
Little Bill

Contest

4) Untapable

5) Emollient

6) Ismene

7) Rock Me Baby

8) New Year's Day

9) Point of Entry

10) Wine Police

11) Bright Thought

12) P. Malice

02 Nov 2013 2:06 PM
Footlick

Sorry, I posted on the other blog.  Here are my picks:

Rosalind

Romantica

Teddy's Promise

Reneesgotzip

Mexikoma

Magician

Secret Circle

Silentio

Declaration of War

Good luck all

02 Nov 2013 2:18 PM
-Keelerman

Looking back through my selections for today's races, I see that my picks in the Juvenile Fillies and Turf are somewhat vague. For contest purposes, I'll take She's a Tiger in the Juvenile Fillies and The Fugue in the Turf.

02 Nov 2013 2:56 PM
Plod Boy Phil

She's a Tiger

02 Nov 2013 3:05 PM
Kevin

Changing to Reneegotzip in the turf sprint

02 Nov 2013 3:18 PM
Kevin

That hurts, another disqualification throws me out of  a multi race bet.  

02 Nov 2013 3:19 PM
-Keelerman

The first Breeders' Cup race of Saturday is in the history books, with 32-1 shot Ria Antonia winning via the disqualification of She's a Tiger.

Here are the standings after the first race of our Saturday contest . . .

1. Keelerman $6.40

And here are the overall two-day contest standings . . .

1. TnT $64.00

2. Kevin $30.00

3. Fugue for Tinhorns $13.00

4. Keelerman $12.80

5. Monarchos Matt $11.80

5. Footlick $11.80

Good luck everyone!

02 Nov 2013 3:25 PM
-Keelerman

Congratulations to Ranagulzion and Monarchos Matt, who successfully picked Dank to win the Filly and Mare Turf! Here are the standings after the second race of our Saturday contest . . .

1. Ranagulzion $8.40

1. Monarchos Matt $8.40

3. Keelerman $6.40

4. Footlick $5.20

4. TnT $5.20

4. Rusty Weisner $5.20

And here are the overall two-day contest standings . . .

1. TnT $69.20

2. Kevin $30.00

3. Monarchos Matt $20.20

4. Footlick $17.00

5. Fugue for Tinhorns $13.00

6. Keelerman $12.80

7. Ranagulzion $8.40

8. Rusty Weisner $5.20

02 Nov 2013 4:00 PM
-Keelerman

It wasn't quite as easy as last year, but Groupie Doll found the winner's circle again in the Filly and Mare Sprint, holding off Judy the Beauty and Dance Card to win in a thrilling finish.

Here are the standings after the third race of our Saturday contest . . .

1. Keelerman $19.00

2. TnT $14.40

3. Ranagulzion $8.40

3. Monarchos Matt $8.40

5. Footlick $5.20

5. Rusty Weisner $5.20

And here are the overall two-day contest standings . . .

1. TnT $78.40

2. Kevin $30.00

3. Keelerman $25.40

4. Monarchos Matt $20.20

5. Footlick $17.00

6. Fugue for Tinhorns $13.00

7. Ranagulzion $8.40

8. Rusty Weisner $5.20

02 Nov 2013 4:51 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Dimension

02 Nov 2013 5:01 PM
Kevin

Alive to Tap It Rich and Dance with Fate in the rolling Pick 3.  I need to cash a ticket; any ticket.  Give Havana no chance.  

Will also say I think the track is playing a lot more fair than yesterday.  

02 Nov 2013 5:26 PM
-Keelerman

Congratulations to Ranagulzion, TnT, and Pedigree Ann, who successfully picked Mizdirection to win the Filly and Mare Sprint! Here are the standings after the fourth race of our Saturday contest . . .

1. TnT $26.20

2. Ranagulzion $20.20

3. Keelerman $19.00

4. Pedigree Ann $11.80

5. Footlick $8.80

6. Monarchos Matt $8.40

7. Rusty Weisner $5.20

8. Kevin $3.60

And here are the overall two-day contest standings . . .

1. TnT $90.20

2. Kevin $33.60

3. Keelerman $25.40

4. Footlick $20.60

5. Monarchos Matt $20.20

5. Ranagulzion $20.20

7. Fugue for Tinhorns $13.00

8. Pedigree Ann $11.80

9. Rusty Weisner $5.20

02 Nov 2013 5:30 PM
Kevin

Take a late look at the #12 in the Juvy-Diamond Bachelor.  Has a big shot.

02 Nov 2013 5:36 PM
-Keelerman

Congratulations to Fugue for Tinhorns and Rusty Weisner, who successfully selected New Year's Day in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile! Here are the standings after the fifth race of our Saturday contest . . .

1. Rusty Weisner $37.40

2. Fugue for Tinhorns $32.20

3. TnT $26.20

4. Ranagulzion $20.20

5. Keelerman $19.00

6. Pedigree Ann $11.80

7. Footlick $8.80

8. Monarchos Matt $8.40

9. Kevin $3.60

And here are the overall two-day contest standings . . .

1. TnT $90.20

2. Fugue for Tinhorns $45.20

3. Rusty Weisner $37.40

4. Kevin $33.60

5. Keelerman $25.40

6. Footlick $20.60

7. Monarchos Matt $20.20

7. Ranagulzion $20.20

9. Pedigree Ann $11.80

02 Nov 2013 5:59 PM
TnT

What a perfect ride by R  Moore!!!!

02 Nov 2013 6:32 PM
-Keelerman

Congratulations to Footlick, who now has the lead in our Saturday contest following Magician's impressive victory in the Turf! Here are the standings after the fifth race of our Saturday contest . . .

1. Footlick $47.60

2. Rusty Weisner $41.80

3. Fugue for Tinhorns $32.20

4. TnT $30.60

5. Ranagulzion $24.60

6. Keelerman $23.40

7. Pedigree Ann $11.80

8. Monarchos Matt $8.40

9. Kevin $3.60

And here are the overall two-day contest standings . . .

1. TnT $94.60

2. Footlick $59.40

3. Fugue for Tinhorns $45.20

4. Rusty Weisner $41.80

5. Kevin $33.60

6. Keelerman $29.80

7. Ranagulzion $24.60

8. Monarchos Matt $20.20

9. Pedigree Ann $11.80

02 Nov 2013 6:40 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Bohemian Squall

02 Nov 2013 6:55 PM
-Keelerman

Congratulations to Footlick and Kevin, who successfully selected Secret Circle to win the Breeders' Cup Sprint! Here are the standings following the seventh race of our Saturday contest . . .

1. Footlick $59.40

2. Rusty Weisner $41.80

3. Fugue for Tinhorns $32.20

4. TnT $30.60

5. Ranagulzion $24.60

6. Keelerman $23.40

7. Kevin $15.40

8. Pedigree Ann $11.80

9. Monarchos Matt $8.40

And here are the overall two-day contest standings . . .

1. TnT $94.60

2. Footlick $71.20

3. Kevin $45.40

4. Fugue for Tinhorns $45.20

5. Rusty Weisner $41.80

6. Keelerman $29.80

7. Ranagulzion $24.60

8. Monarchos Matt $20.20

9. Pedigree Ann $11.80

02 Nov 2013 7:13 PM
Kevin

4-1 would have been a lot better, but it was my "big bet" for the day; at least one thing went right.

02 Nov 2013 7:16 PM
TnT

Fort Larned 15-1.......I will have a piece of that

02 Nov 2013 7:55 PM
-Keelerman

Congratulations, Footlick and TnT! You are the winners of our Breeders' Cup handicapping contests!

Here are the final standings . . .

1. Footlick $59.40

2. Rusty Weisner $48.20

3. Ranagulzion $45.60

4. Fugue for Tinhorns $32.20

5. TnT $30.60

6. Kevin $30.00

7. Keelerman $29.80

8. Monarchos Matt $29.40

9. Pedigree Ann $11.80

And here are the overall two-day contest standings . . .

1. TnT $94.60

2. Footlick $71.20

3. Kevin $60.00

4. Rusty Weisner $48.20

5. Ranagulzion $45.60

6. Fugue for Tinhorns $45.20

7. Monarchos Matt $41.20

8. Keelerman $36.20

9. Pedigree Ann $11.80

Well, another great Breeders' Cup is in the history books! Congratulations on fine selections, everyone!

02 Nov 2013 10:02 PM
Footlick

Congrats to everyone!  Thanks Keelerman for keeping track of everything.

02 Nov 2013 10:07 PM
Rusty Weisner

Plod Boy Phil,

Not "Bohemian Squall" (maybe you're thinking of bohemian squalor): "Bahamian".

03 Nov 2013 8:06 AM
Rusty Weisner

The good news:  I won on the year! -- $200.

The bad news:  bad $600 day.  

Ironically, I didn't make a dime on New Year's Day.

Here were my singles on the day:

R1-R2:  Toowindytohaulrox, Flashback (both 2nd)  Flashback didn't look good, by the way -- broke slow and couldn't corner, from what I recall.

R4: Untapable (only about $20)

R5: Dank/Romantica (I think about $250 on P3s and a P4)

R8: Havana ($30, I think -- some earlier trauma shook my resolve on this race)

R9: The Fugue ($200)

R10: Justin Phillip/Private Zone

R11: Wise Dan ($150)

I really regret disregarding my earlier intuition to single the Turf Sprint with Mizdirection and Unbridled's Note.  This resulting in me spending some absurd amount of money on the horrible all-chalk R5-7 P3 ticket I cashed for...$24.

It was a day of awful chalk with that one horrible longshot at the least opportune time.  She's a Tiger was one of my preferences, but even that wouldn't have mattered much:  chalk also won R3.  I had one ticket with Ria Antonia:  ALL/1,2/Book Review,Dance Card,Dance to Bristol.  I had been tempted to drop those picks at news of Friday's track bias, but I didn't have the sense, especially after Ria Antonia, that closers couldn't close.  Just wrong picks.

Had Groupie Doll and Secret Circle but needed to beat them with either my "single" or a longer odds horse such as Gentlemen's Bet or Bohemian Squalor.  

On several tickets I had a preference of New Year's Day, Havana, Strong Mandate...Tap It Rich (should have listened, Phil, and really wanted to -- Ria Antonia made me do it).  But I needed The Fugue or Justin Phillip/Private Zone (had Magician covered).  

Had three 50-cent tickets on Wise Dan, but that only amounted to $224.  

Completely whiffed on the Classic:  took Declaration of War, Palace Malice, Flat Out and played exactas for $100.  I think Monarchos Matt may have won on this, and Ranagulzion might have had the trifecta, because he liked both of the top two, probably JayJay, too.

That was some move by Gary Stevens on She's a Tiger.  Perhaps someone knowledgeable about horse racing can explain how he got him to go over while appearing to hit her with his right hand.  It was the only way he had to win the race.  

I think Coldfacts made money on Laugh Track.  There were a lot of horses with closing form in synthetic races that translated this well to this track yesterday.

Thus endeth my confession.

03 Nov 2013 8:30 AM
Rusty Weisner

These are the horses that mystified me:

Laughing, Book Review, Dance to Bristol, Justin Phillip

03 Nov 2013 9:49 AM
Sam Santschi

So angry after Friday that I vowed not to bet dirt yesterday which cost me the chance to bet New Year's Day, who I really liked.  Very humbling game.  That being said, it opened my eyes to Will take charge and sorry for the red board, bailed me out for the weekend (almost, lol)when my top three lifetime horse MMM (Unbridled, War Chant) came through.  A potential cure for the BC hangover is the Melbourne Cup.  Just saying...BTW, do horseman get any of the money wagered through Xpressbet, TVG or Amwest?

03 Nov 2013 10:15 AM
Secreteriat

Congrats to all the winners,

I had a very good day and could have been even better hitting the P4 if She's a Tiger does not get disqualified. None of my tosses hit the top 3 Trinninberg Fort Larned Silver Max and the foreign horse who ran two weeks ago.

Coldfacts thank you for telling us no 6 yr old won the Cassic before,thanks to that information I had the exacta ant the TRI Also thanks to Gary Stevens who swept the Distaff and the Classic Double. Derby competition can't start soon enough!

03 Nov 2013 10:26 AM
Monarchos Matt

Extremely tough, bordering on impossible, day at the Breeders' Cup....although I feel like that is always the case.

I cashed two tickets the entire day- Mucho Macho Man to win and Dank/Romantica exacta. Both quite chalky and didn't come close to covering my day.

I failed to get out of the first leg of a single multi-race bet yesterday. I used Untapable and Artemis Agrotera, 6 in the Turf, and Private Zone, Fast Bullet, and Justin Phillip to begin my three plays.

I missed two pretty decent exactas by one horse- had The Fugue over Indy Point in the Turf, had MMM over Declaration of War in the Classic.

In the Mile, I played the wrong closer, No Jet Lag, who was way too close to the hot early pace, but at that point I was just betting in desperation. Was right to toss all the speed there, although I will say that Silver Max held on impressively to finish 4th considering the blistering pace.

Good job Coldfacts on New Year's Day, I hope you cashed. The game time decision that I'm proud of myself about is that I didn't bet a single outright dollar on Tap It Rich when I saw his morning line odds disintegrate...still used him in exacta boxes with New Year's Day, Mexikoma and Diamond Bachelor but was against the wide speed horses so didn't cash a ticket there either.

The "smart" money beat me the other way with Secret Circle in the day's strangest race...need to revisit the charts there to figure out what the heck happened but none of my horses were anywhere to be found.

It was nice to get MMM home but the main play there was to have him singled under some longshots on my Pick 4 ticket. Wrong longshots (I had Real Solution, Indy Point/ 3/ Wise Dan live to MMM but couldn't get there).

03 Nov 2013 10:27 AM
Secreteriat

Rusty,

Laughing id not ship very well and that is why she ran poorly.

Justin Phillip does not like S A and runs better at Churchill and N Y tracks. I knew this prior to the start of the races but unfortunateley I couldn't post the .info.

03 Nov 2013 10:31 AM
Monarchos Matt

Also just noticed that the Pick 4, which was fairly chalky except for the first leg, paid $380 for a $0.50 bet. The theoretical win parlay was like $210, so that's a pretty great return, and pretty easy to hit if you used ALL in the Turf. It went favorite-favorite-2nd choice after that.

03 Nov 2013 10:37 AM
Rusty Weisner

Coldfacts,

I forgot you had New Year's Day as well as Laugh Track.  Congratulations.  Sounds like you made a bundle.  And well done staking against Game on Dude so vociferously and convincingly.  Kettle Corn, indeed.

03 Nov 2013 10:40 AM
Rusty Weisner

Sam Santschi,

Closers really closed.  The first dirt race of the day, R2, gave a hint this might be possible.

03 Nov 2013 10:40 AM
Monarchos Matt

Another question for the historians among us:

Has a 3 year old ever run each leg of the Triple Crown, missed the board in all 3, (and missed the board BADLY: 8th Derby, 7th Preakness, 10th Belmont) and then WON the Eclipse award?

It's going to pretty tough to give it to any horse besides Will Take Charge, I would imagine.  

03 Nov 2013 10:41 AM
Coldfacts

Rusty Weisner,

I had the Tri in the Juvenile Fillies and when I saw the head on replay I felt like a man walking down the gallows knowing his inevitable faith.

Have you ever seen a grown man cry? Well if you were with me yesterday you would have seen a pathetic one.

What made the disqualification more hurtful was the fact that Rosaline did not get for second. I had an exacta box with her, the adjusted winner andh three other horses excluding She A tiger.

I keyed She's A Tiger with the 5 horses in my exacta box for the tri. I could have easily box the 6 horses for $120.

A lot of contributor consider me an idiot and sadly I must concede  they are correct.

Although my entire day was affected by the disqualification, I made money on New Years  Day, Magician and the exacta with Laugh Track.

Can you believe after I had repeatedly provided cold facts to indicate GOD had no chance of winning the BCC, he went off the favorite.

Kettle Cord and Clubhouse Ride were not present.

I lost a lot of money on DOW as he was the pick of the paddock. He ran a gallant race for his first time on the surface in a race.

I stated that Palace Malice should have been rest for the rest of the year as he had a brutal campaign leading up to the BCC.

03 Nov 2013 10:47 AM
Coldfacts

Monarchos Matt,

If Orb wins the Cigar Mile impressively against older horses he might just have the edge.

03 Nov 2013 10:56 AM
Coldfacts

Monarchos Matt,

If Orb wins the Cigar Mile impressively against older horses he might just have the edge.

03 Nov 2013 10:58 AM
Coldfacts

If ever there was a horse that should have won the BCC, it is Declaration Of War.

To contest America's richest race with his first effort on dirt effort and 71 day between races suggests had the heaviest handicap of the top three.

There is no doubt he is a turf horse as he was battling but not laying out like dirt horse.  He use share strength and power to be competitive.

I feel so bad for Mr. Obrien as he is the foreign based trainer that has been the most supportive of the BCC.

03 Nov 2013 11:14 AM
Sam Santschi

Rusty Weisner...., missed the second race and foolishly did not watch the replay as a commentator mentioned that flashback could not catch the winner.  Anybody notice that randy moss kept talking about a speed bias all day?  

Cold facts...somebody mentioned on twitter the irony of the DQ being that it benefited the rider most guilty of all of the practice of herding.  

03 Nov 2013 11:22 AM
Coldfacts

Monarchos Matt,

Tap It Rich ran better than I expected.

As stated if one did not like New Years Day, one should have respected that fact that his sire is world class. Street Cry has now sire two winner of the BCJ.  

He could be a legitimate Derby horse.

The colt that went unnoticed is Bond Holder. If ones does not look carefully, it will be missed that he finished with the most energy.

03 Nov 2013 11:23 AM
Coldfacts

CORRECTION TO MY PREVIOUS POST REGARDING -  BOLD HOLDER

The colt that finished with the best energy was not Bond Holder but instead Mexikoma.

Heading into the first turn he was ahead of 3 horse but was regulated to 18L last down the back stretch.

He passed 8 horses while checking off dying horses to get running room for his 6th place finish. He was beaten no more than 4L.

That's serious colt who with expected improvement will be in the Derby mix.

Let's not forget that his sire was responsible for a Derby and Belmont winner in his 1st crop.

03 Nov 2013 11:44 AM
Coldfacts

Sam Santschi,

I swear JC is riding for the mob most time. Some of his decision particularly in NY are inexplicable.

I try to avoid him in most cases. However, I liked his filly because of the even race she ran 1st time on dirt in NY and the addition of blinkers.

I would have preferred any other rider getting that race. JC has done things to my wagers that I cannot begin to describe.

03 Nov 2013 11:48 AM
predict

coldfacts,

interesting take on JC, have often wondered this myself. also have to wonder about mike smith in game on dude?

03 Nov 2013 1:39 PM
Secreteriat

I made the blunder of the day. I keyed New Years Day with All with All for a .50c tri The track was a zoo and everyone was pressing me to hurry up. I typed 2 with all with all. Imagine my disgust when I realized I it should have been the 4. $430. Tri vanished. Almost quit then Lady luck struck when Cara Cortado was scratched and I replaced him with the 7 in the Tri's. I ended up hitting 2's  Tri twice because of the Dead Heat for 2nd and third. Truly the the Thrill of Victory and the Agony of Defeat!

03 Nov 2013 2:16 PM
Secreteriat

Coldfacts You are not an idiot you are human. I made a huge blunder myself. I singled N Years Day with all with all in a Tri and when I went to cash the ticket I discovered t typed 2 instead of 4.I waited till the last 2nd to make my bet and screwed it up. I know exactly how you felt. I almost quit but I stayed. Then Lady Luck struck when Caracorto was scratched and I replaced him with the & in second and hit 2 tri's in the same race because they Dead Heated.That was the first time that ever happened in 46 years of betting. What a wild and crazy day it was.

03 Nov 2013 2:31 PM
Secreteriat

Pardon my spelling that should have been the 7 not &. keyboard issues. Sorry

03 Nov 2013 2:34 PM
Kevin

Frustrated looking back at my initial handicapping notes for the

Breeders Cup days.  I picked my top 3 or 4 per race.  If I had bet those, I would have hit 4 Pick 3s over the 2 days.

My typical problem, good handicapping, poor betting. Finished the year down $2K.  All the losses wrapped around a terrible February, Derby, and Breeders Cup.  Broke even otherwise.  

03 Nov 2013 7:55 PM
Rusty Weisner

Sam Santschi,

Thanks.  I ignored the SA form, anyway, for Justin Phillip.  I was of two minds but ended up saying that Justin Phillip ran his best race last year, before he broke out as a star, against a track bias in the BC.  And what decided me was that no such bias was present Saturday.  

That's a horrible story about punching the wrong numbers.

Unfortunately, I punched all mine correctly.

04 Nov 2013 11:21 AM
Rusty Weisner

Kevin,

I have to say your picks were as good as anyone's I saw.

My betting was awful, forget the bad handicapping.  I simply greatly overestimated the potential payoffs of P3 bets and spread too wide.  Even if I had got my Fugue or Ria Antonia tickets I would have pretty much broken even.  Even the one ticket where I got a sequence of a chalky single and two longish-odds horses I only doubled my investment.  I think those payoffs used to be a bit inflated when the 50-cent bet was still a novelty.  Even with the bad P3 betting and chalky winning tickets it would have been manageable, but completely face planted on the F&Mturf (lost $50 in exotics when Laughing ran up the track), $90 or something on the Classic.

04 Nov 2013 11:29 AM
Rusty Weisner

Ironically, in the one race I was most leery of, the Juvenile, I had the trifecta.  But I don't bet those often.

04 Nov 2013 11:30 AM
Sam Santschi

Melbourne Cup: 10 pm CST

Playing with 6,8,12,16,19 and 21

E/W on 12-Seville, 16-Royal Empire and 19-Simenon

04 Nov 2013 2:46 PM
Plod Boy Phil

seriously ?

05 Nov 2013 7:40 PM
Coldfacts

Below is an extract from a post I made prior to the Breeder's Cup Distaff.

"I focused on her being prematurely awarded the Eclipse for Champion 3YO female. She defeated the top fillies in the Oaks as a big long shot. She subsequently defeated two moderate fillies and caught Royal Delta on an off day. My contention is that she needs to contest the Distaff and defeat the top fillies again to solidify her claim as being the best of her age group gender.

It would be a great disservice to Beholder and Close Hatches if either should wins the Distaff and not be awarded the eclipse based on one loss to POS."

The POS fans cannot honestly now believe she deserve the Eclipse after finishing 16 1/2L last in the Distaff.

05 Nov 2013 8:11 PM
SCATDADDY59CAE

NOW,  THIS IS WHAT SHARING IS ALL ABOUT ,THANKS TO THE PEOPLES WHO HAD GOOD VIEW ON DOW, I UTUBE HIM ,, PUT 2ND & 3RD IN TRI , THIS GAME IS EASY IF YOU CAN SPOT THE FALSE FAV. ,LOVE THAT MMM! ! ! !

06 Nov 2013 9:11 AM
Coldfacts

Congratulations are in order for the connections and fans of Wise Dan. I was of the opinion that the European colt Olympic Glory would provided some competition by that did not materialize.  

It was left up to the G3 winner and G1 placed ZA Approval to provide the serious competition. The G2 winner Silento ran better than expected.

Is wise truly great? His record supports the this view and I am not prepared to challenge the conclusion.

I have some views for what they are worth.

In 2010 Gio Ponti won the Shadwell Mile and went on to finish 2nd to the great Goldikova in the 2010 Breeder Cup Mile. In 2011 Gio Ponti won the Shadwell Mile and went on to finish 4th in the 2011 BC Mile won by the 7YO Court Vision. Goldikova finished 3rd in her quest for a 4th consecutive victory.

In 2011 Wise Dan as a 4YO finished 4th to Gio Ponti in the Shadwell Mile and bypassed the 2011 Breeders’ Cup Mile.

Between 2012 and 2013 most of quality of milers that existed in the previous two years were out of training for various reasons.

Wise Dan was not good enough to defeat them in 2010 & 2011 and in two subsequent years he has become great. Could it be that the absence of quality milers from the scene aided and abetted this declared greatness?

To put things into perspective, Curlin’s success as a 4YO that led to his 2nd HOY title could have been aided and abetted by the retirement of Street Sense, Any Given Saturday, Hard Spun and Rags To Riches as 3YOs. This assertion in not a stretch as those horses would have been formidable opponents as 4YOs.

Is Gio Ponti great? He won the Shadwell Mile in consecutive years and then challenged the mighty Goldikova twice.  Goldikova has to be the bar for greatness for turf milers. Wise Dan was not considered good enough face her in 2011 but two year later considered great.

Food for thought!

07 Nov 2013 6:55 PM
Rusty Weisner

To the author of this entry,

I could have done better going with Catherine the Great's picks of horses on top.

;-)

09 Nov 2013 9:30 AM
Mary Zinke

Rusty, LOL !

15 Nov 2013 4:22 PM

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