By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
The field for Saturday's
$500,000 Jim Dandy (G2) at Saratoga is small, with only five horses in the
entries. But quality runs deep—very deep—in the 1 1/8-mile contest for
three-year-olds.
Two of the entrants are
Grade 1 winners, including a duel classic winner. Two others are graded stakes
winner. And the one runner who hasn't scored a stakes win has placed in
multiple classics.
#5 Sovereignty is
going to start as a heavy favorite, and deservedly so. The son of Into Mischief
is developing into a beast. In the Kentucky Derby (G1), he stormed home from
16th place to defeat next-out Preakness (G1) winner Journalism by 1 1/2
lengths. Then in the Belmont (G1), Sovereignty stayed within two lengths of the
pace before blazing his final quarter-mile in a sensational :23.69 to beat
Journalism by three lengths.
Journalism, of course,
flattered that form by returning to win last week's Haskell (G1).
Sovereignty might be one of
the best three-year-olds we've seen in recent years. But does that mean he's
unbeatable in the Jim Dandy? Not necessarily. I can think of a couple reasons why
Sovereignty might come up short.
For one, the Kentucky Derby
and Belmont took place over 1 1/4 miles, and Sovereignty relished every yard of
those races. The Jim Dandy is a furlong shorter, giving Sovereignty less time
to exert his authority.
Second, Sovereignty's main
summer target is next month's Travers (G1) at Saratoga. After the Belmont,
trainer Bill Mott even mentioned Sovereignty could skip the Jim Dandy and train
up to the Travers. The Jim Dandy appears to be a prep race for Sovereignty
rather than a goal in and of itself, which is worth emphasizing since
Sovereignty lost the 1 1/8-mile Florida Derby (G1) when prepping for a peak
performance in the Kentucky Derby.
Sovereignty may well be
talented enough to win the Jim Dandy with something less than his absolute best
effort, but what happens if Kentucky Derby and Belmont third-place finisher #1 Baeza steps forward with the race of
his life?
Whereas Sovereignty enters
the Jim Dandy off a solid but not especially remarkable slate of workouts,
Baeza has been training like never before out at Santa Anita. He's been a
rocket in the mornings, clocking a bullet half-mile in :46 2/5, a bullet six
furlongs in 1:11 1/5, six furlongs in 1:12 2/5, and five furlongs in :59 4/5.
Baeza has turned in the
occasional quick workout in the past, but the intensity of his present work tab
is uncharted territory. The full-brother to 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage and
2024 Belmont hero Dornoch might only now be hitting his stride, a scary thought
given the talent he's demonstrated already.
Early in his career, Baeza
showed some degree of tactical speed. He pressed the pace when breaking his
maiden by 4 3/4 lengths, and in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), he stayed within a length
of the pace for much of the journey before settling for second place (beaten only
three-quarters of a length) against Journalism.
In the Kentucky Derby and
Belmont, Baeza was considerably more sluggish early on. He fell as far back as
15th place in the Derby, but despite encountering some traffic around the final
turn, he rallied late to finish third by 1 3/4 lengths. In the Belmont, he
settled sixth early on before closing mildly to run third by 6 1/2 lengths.
I'm optimistic that the
speed Baeza has shown in recent workouts is a sign that he's maturing and will return
to forwardly placed tactics in the Jim Dandy. Aside from Ohio Derby (G3) winner
#3 Mo Plex, there isn't any early
speed entered in Saturday's field, so Baeza has every chance to secure a
favorable position pressing a slow pace in second place. If Sovereignty regresses
at all off his massive Belmont performance, Baeza may have the talent to
capitalize on a perfect trip and pull off the upset. He's my choice to win.
For second place, I'll side
with Sovereignty. Then my third choice is Mo Plex, a speed horse who enters off
a two-length triumph in the 1 1/8-mile Ohio Derby. That marked his first start
around two turns, and Mo Plex appeared to relish the configuration. If he
escapes with an uncontested lead in the Jim Dandy, he can dig deep late and
hold off the deep-closing duo of #2
Sandman and #4 Hill Road to
complete the trifecta.
Selections
1st: Baeza
2nd: Sovereignty
3rd: Mo Plex
Now it's your turn! Who do
you like in the Jim Dandy?
*****
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
