TimeformUS Weekend Plays from Delta Downs, Churchill, and Betfair Hollywood Park

Saturday Delta Downs, Race 7, Local Post Time 4:15 pm CST
The G3 Delta Downs Jackpot, 1 and 1/16 Miles, 2YO, Dirt
By Douglas Salvatore

After many years of disappointing editions, everything finally clicked for the Delta Jackpot last year. The 2012 edition of this race was won in brilliant front-running fashion by Goldencents. He defeated a very respectable field that included Itsmyluckyday and Mylute, the eventual second and third-place finishers in this year's Preakness Stakes.

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A fairly promising field of ten is assembled for this $1,000,000 affair. The 5/2 morning line favorite is Coastline, whom we must oppose in here. The TimeformUS Race Ratings indicate that the lightly raced Coastline has competed in three races against weaker competition than he faces today. His speed figures range from 85 to 91, and he will need a clear-cut lifetime top to win. This son of champion sprinter Speightstown is also making his two-turn debut. It wouldn't be a shock if he won, but his work is certainly cut out for him.

The two horses who absolutely must be keyed are #8 Casiguapo and #10 Rise Up. The Calder-based Casiguapo performed admirably in his two New York starts. He finished a distant second in the Hopeful and was a sneaky-good fourth in the Champagne Stakes--both races against much better competition than he faces today. Casiguapo was assigned a field-best speed figure of 98 last time out, and he's been freshened and pointed to this off of a 49-day layoff. Given the $1 million purse, you have to believe that for these obscure connections, this race is the Breeders' Cup and Kentucky Derby rolled into one.

TimeformUS PPs for Casiguapo

Rise Up was excellent over this racetrack while winning the Jean Lafitte by 6.5 lengths 28 days ago. That was just his second start for trainer Tom Amoss, who owns an overall TimeformUS trainer rating of 100 (the maximum). Rise Up has yet to break through his top speed figure of 95, run for previous trainer Tim Hamm, and if he does today, it will almost certainly be enough to score a victory. The TimeformUS Pace Projector indicates that Rise Up should be on an uncontested early lead if jockey Gerard Melancon wants it that way, and based on Melancon's 43% win rate with Amoss-trained horses, it's certainly easy to trust him to ride a smart tactical race.

TimeformUS Pace Projector for the Delta Downs Jackpot

If there is a longshot worthy of exotic inclusion, we believe it is Mighty Brown, who was a good second with an 86 speed figure in the local prep for this race. He projects a beautiful mid-pack trip and has the look of a rapidly improving horse who should stay the distance and possibly get a piece.

Betting Strategy: Exacta box of Casiguapo and Rise Up. Include Mighty Brown with them in the trifecta.


Saturday Churchill Downs, Race 9, Local Post Time 4:37 pm ET
The G3 River City H., 1 and 1/8 Miles, 3+, Turf
By Douglas Salvatore

A full field of 14 is assembled for a wild edition of the River City Handicap. On recent form, 7/2 morning line favorite Keep Up and 5/1 morning line Coalport are very much contenders who deserve inclusion in exotic wagers. However, neither of the two will offer enough value to justify the short prices in what is a skullbuster of a race.

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Indeed, in a race that is this wide open, it is best to stab with horses who offer long odds and can be contenders if able to work out a good trip. Ol Army (30/1 morning line) is the only horse in the field who has managed to run three speed figures of 110 or better in his last four turf races. He achieved each of those three 110+ figures when able to secure an early lead. The one time he failed to make the early lead over that stretch, Ol Army could manage a figure of only 104.

TimeformUS PPs for Ol Army

The TimeformUS Pace Projector indicates that Ol Army should find himself on an uncontested early lead, and at his favorable low weight impost of 114lbs, he could prove to be an elusive target on the front end.

TimeformUS Pace Projector for the River City Handicap

Two other potential longshots also merit exotic consideration. Olympic Thunder (12/1 morning line) has numerous turf figures that make him competitive. If he is able to work out a trip, he should be a big factor. The other is the intriguing Juddmonte Farms import Kalamos (15/1 morning line). He doesn't have a strong case on speed figures, but his turf top of 102 came during August of his three-year-old season in France. His win over the polytrack at Keeneland last time out was visually impressive, as he overcame a troubled start while off a 417-day layoff. Kalamos is aggressively spotted by Bill Mott, and he is a horse who has wildcard potential.

Betting Strategy:  Win bet on Ol Army.  Use the following horses underneath him in the exotics: Keep Up, Coalport, Olympic Thunder, and Kalamos. 


Saturday Betfair Hollywood Park, Race 7, Local Post Time 4:05 pm PT
The Real Quiet S., 1 and 1/16 Miles, 2YO, Synth
By Justin Finch

The Real Quiet has attracted a field of eight two-year-old colts and geldings who will be running 1 1/16 on cushion track. At this young Hollywood Park meet, races at this distance have been fair to all running styles. Frontrunners, stalkers, closers, and even deep closers have all enjoyed success. However, races at this distance give the horses only a short run to the first turn, which can leave horses in outside posts at a disadvantage.

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According to the TimeformUS Pace Projector, this race is likely to unfold at a fast pace, which could well end up giving closers an advantage. Beach Hut is projected to have a clear early lead, with Karma King and Better Bet falling in immediately behind him. Green Mask is a relatively close fourth, and Life is a Joy is a stalking fifth. The others should be considered closers today.
Tamarando is the morning line favorite, at 5-2, and he figures to be the favorite when the gate opens. This Jerry Hollendorfer-trained colt is simply the most accomplished horse in this field. He has won a Grade 1 sprint and finished third in a Grade 1 route. He has a string of strong speed figures. He is proven on synthetic surfaces. He made a big late run against the much-talked-about speed bias in an undercard stake on Breeders' Cup Friday. He figures to be favored by the fast pace today. His trainer and rider (Bejarano) are popular and about as good as trainers and riders get. There is much to like here, and, without question, Tamarando is a strong contender, but we are finding it hard to shake the feeling that he will be an underlay in this race. He has yet to win around two turns. His speed figures, while strong, do not tower above those of his rivals. Much as we respect Tamarando, we are going to take our chances against him in the top spot today.
The second choice on the morning line, at 3-1, is Wesley Ward's Green Mask. Green Mask won his debut at Keeneland in wire-to-wire fashion (earning a nice speed figure of 83) and now ships west and tries two turns in a race in which the Pace Projector projects him to be in fourth place early. That is too much for us to take at a short price. We are tossing Green Mask.
At morning line odds of 7-2, Beach Hut is our selection, even though his running style figures to put him into the teeth of a fast pace, and even though his outside post is a disadvantage. Our case for Beach Hut is a simple one: We think he is the most talented horse in this field. His debut speed figure, a 93 earned on real dirt at Santa Anita, is faster than any number his opponents have ever run. From a visual standpoint, the effort was superb. It was the kind of effort that makes the viewer itch to see the next one. He pressed a fast pace from the outside, handled everything he encountered with consummate style, and ran away from his opponents in a manner that suggested he has at least some chance of becoming something special.

TimeformUS PPs for Beach Hut

Beach Hut will be making his first start around two turns today, as well as his first start on synthetic. His TimeformUS Pedigree Rating for synthetic routes is a mediocre 66. However, his trainer, Bob Baffert, gets a powerful 96 rating with first starts on synthetic, as well as a 92 rating going from dirt to synthetic. In addition, Baffert gets a 97 rating with second starts, a 96 rating with first routes, and a 96 rating in two-year-old stakes.

TimeformUS Trainer Stats for Bob Baffert
We also plan on making strong use of Life is a Joy, who was compromised at the start of his last race and still made a long, grinding run against the bias.
Electric Eddie is a longshot (12-1 on the morning line) who should be kept in the mix. 


Sunday Betfair Hollywood Park, Race 7, Local Post Time 3:35 pm PT
The On Trust H., 7.5F, 3+, Cal-Breds, Synth
By Robert Finnegan

The On Trust Handicap at Betfair Hollywood Park features a group of up-and-coming types along with wily veterans. They will be competing on the cushion track for $100,000.  Although the race is restricted to Cal-bred horses, this is a capable and well-matched group that has among it a horse who ran in the 2012 Kentucky Derby and several others who have competed in Grade 1s.  The seldom-run 7.5-furlong distance of the On Trust  has attracted sprinters as well as middle distance runners who should have ample time and opportunity to make a late bid.    In the absence of any real standout, our inclination is to look for a strong contender who will be a bit of a price, and we think we have found one in Mobilized.

TimeformUS PPs for the On Trust
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When analyzing how experienced horses such as these might fare when attempting a given distance and surface, this writer rates past performances ahead of breeding.  Although Mobilized has a weak Pedigree Rating of 58, you will note that the venerable seven-year-old has run this unorthodox distance three times at Betfair Hollywood Park, and in all three races he ran extremely well.  A little more than a year ago, he thrashed a similar field of horses in the $125k Tiznow Stakes, a virtual facsimile of today’s race.
There’s reason to think that Mobilized has been primed for the On Trust Handicap.  He has raced only three times as a seven-year-old, and his last race, a downhill turf race at Santa Anita on October 19th, could have had the effect of tightening him up for this spot. Unambitiously placed early on, he still made his usual late run to get within four lengths of the leader at the wire.  Since then, he has had three workouts, and today he adds jockey Corey Nakatani.
Mobilized has run decent speed figures of 101 and 102 in his two synthetic sprints this year, and, while it is generally risky business to play seven-year-olds to get back to strong old figures, we believe that Mobilized can take a step in that direction today, which would make him very competitive in this spot. Moreover, his trainer, Gary Mandella, gets solid TFUS Trainer Ratings of 80 in Hollywood Park sprints and 87 with sprinters receiving race spacing similar to today's.
The other horse to consider (if you don't mind taking a relatively short price) is the four-year-old Rousing Sermon, whose lifetime-top speed figure, a 114, came over this surface.  This is a colt who has been running mainly in two-turn routes and now cuts back to one turn for top trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, who gets a 78 rating with route-to-sprint moves.  The TimeformUS Pace Projector indicates that this race favors horses on or close to the early lead.  While this doesn’t stop us from liking the late-running Mobilized, it does make Rousing Sermon look like a particularly strong play.  It’s a powerful handicapping angle when a horse who has been running in routes cuts back to one turn and still projects to be close to the early pace.  In this case, Rousing Sermon figures to sit in the garden spot behind Compari and morning line favorite Cyclometer.  We give him a great shot of running past those two at the top of the lane and feel he is the most likely winner of this race.

The Play:   Exacta box of Mobilized and Rousing Sermon, emphasizing the latter on top.  Mobilized and Rousing Sermon in multi-race wagers.    Rousing Sermon with ALL with Mobilized in trifectas.


Leave a Comment:

Plod Boy Phil

Delta Jackpot: 5 Rum Points exits an Extreme for Closers and returns to the Lasix barn.

River City Hdcp: 4 Keep Up impressed with a 'vs Plod Win' in his last.  Lightly race 6yo has a long history of 'vs Flow' trips and, he's also shown the ability to take advantage of a Closer favoring Flow in winning this race last year - a trait not all 'one run' types necessarily possess.

22 Nov 2013 6:55 PM


"We are tossing Green Mask"

The obvious question has to be - Did you actually watch Green Mask's debut?

Kent had to call on all his experience to restrain the colt when he left the gates.

He was never out of a canter as Kent remained motionless to the line in 1:09.92. If felt the whip and was let off his bridle his margin of victory would have been closer to 20L instead 5 1/2l.

I challenge you to cite any debut performance that remotely compares to that of the Green Mask.

If he reports in the same frame of made that resulted in his smashing debut peformance, Beach Hut and company will be running for the lesser positions.

Unless this colt is not a total fraud he has to be the best 2YO male to debut to date.

22 Nov 2013 9:11 PM


I failed to mention that Green Mask is May foal. A supposedly late foal records time of 1:09.92 with its rider motionless is considered monster in my book.

Palace Malice, Mine That Bird and Luckin At Lucky are all May foals. Each of the aforementioned won a leg of the Triple Crown.

Mine That Bird, Pioneerof The Nile and Musket Man were the first three past the post in the 2009 Kentucky Derby. They all had May foaling dates.

Never underestimate a talented May foal.

22 Nov 2013 9:25 PM


"We are tossing Green Mask"

The obvious question has to be - Did you actually watch Green Mask's debut?

Kent had to call on all his experience to restrain the colt when he left the gates.

He was never out of a canter as Kent remained motionless to the line in 1:09.92. If he felt the whip and was let off his bridle, his margin of victory would have been closer to 20L instead 5 1/2L.

I challenge you to cite any debut performance that remotely compares to that of the Green Mask.

If he reports in the same frame of made that resulted in his smashing debut peformance, Beach Hut and company will be running for the minor positions.

Unless this colt is a total fraud, he has to be the best 2YO male to debut to date.

22 Nov 2013 9:29 PM


I failed to mention that Green Mask is May foal. A supposedly late foal records time of 1:09.92 with its rider motionless is considered monster in my book.

Palace Malice, Mine That Bird and Luckin At Lucky are all May foals. Each of the aforementioned won a leg of the Triple Crown.

Mine That Bird, Pioneerof The Nile and Musket Man were the first three passed the post in the 2009 Kentucky Derby. They all had May foaling dates.

Never underestimate a talented May foal.

22 Nov 2013 9:30 PM

As another that will be included in the all others (free spot as in tic tac toe)entry where do they propose to run Greenie next?

23 Nov 2013 1:55 PM
Little Bill

Just watched The Mask race, impressive indeed. Needs green blinkers.

Worked 5f 11/6 58.6 H. Like to see a work soon, then deep waters at CD or Aq.

23 Nov 2013 3:24 PM

Ffort we have a discrepancy in regards to the young masked   crusader.Here is his last work as per Brisnet 06Nov Kee 5f ft :58ª H 1/2.

Thats 58.3 November 6 at K for anyone that dosent have their reading enhancement with them.If he also worked in 58.6 on the same date, its a non-published.

23 Nov 2013 4:41 PM

BTW Saudi Arabia is well represented in the RQ as GM is owned by Abdullah Saeed Almaddah and BH is owned by

Prince Khalid bin Abdullah.

23 Nov 2013 4:49 PM
Little Bill

Got the work info off DRF. 6 tenths=3 fifths.

23 Nov 2013 5:00 PM

Very Good Ffort

23 Nov 2013 5:31 PM

Isnt it funny how two of the biggest sellers of PPs use differing fractional increments.

23 Nov 2013 5:34 PM

Greenie just assured himself a spot on the all others entry and not an individual entry if he would have run to his odds.

23 Nov 2013 7:12 PM

Green Mask failed to settle in the RQ just as he did in his debut effort.

I remained puzzled as to why an obviously aggressive colt is affixed with any form blinkers especially when the animal has  high cruising speed.

He was beaten by some with more foundation but he ran below expectation.

This one loss will not change my opinion of the colt and I hope the unnecessary head gear will be remove for his next effort.

24 Nov 2013 9:02 AM


Speedy Bob had the impressive MSW winner Beach Hut in the race and he finished off the board. I believe he was 5-2.

It's not fair to jump to conclusion about a horse off one lost. It was in fact the colt's first time against winners and although he lost, he was not disgraced.

I just wished he had relaxed for his rider. It is difficult to properly compare performance to ability when a horse is fighting its rider.

Hopefully the blinkers will be off the next time.

24 Nov 2013 9:09 AM
Little Bill

Shame on me. Did not read the article and was unaware GM was running. I thought the JC at CD 11/30 would have been the natural next race. Must have shipped for surface or competition reasons.

It's not unusual for young ones to regress after running out of their skin  on FTL.  

24 Nov 2013 9:49 AM

Its not fair to jump to a conclusion off of one loss OR ONE WIN.I dont know if I agree about the blinkers but I do agree about the cross country ship.IMO if he would have stayed in KY and ran in the race Ffort mentioned I believe he would have run a lot better.

But if GM would have run lights out shipping across the country dont you think he would have been a single entry and not part of the ALL OTHERS ENTRY,I do.

24 Nov 2013 5:16 PM

Blinkers affixed to horses that are aggressive in the earlier portion of races are not well served by the equipment.

In many instances, blinkers are used to induce focus and to get horses into the pace earlier.

GM has a lot of tactical speed  that he has aggressively displayed in his two starts. He does not need blinker to get into the pace. With his obvious aggressive nature, the addition of the blinkers will only make him more aggressive.

It appears American trainers are the only group in the world who are of the opinion that blinkers is required attire for 2YOs.

25 Nov 2013 8:35 AM
Little Bill

This blinkers rant sounds familiar.

25 Nov 2013 7:59 PM
Plod Boy Phil

ya think ?

25 Nov 2013 11:34 PM

Fugue for Tinhorns,

I posted an observation about an aggressive colt with blinkers. A contributor in response cited his/her disagreement.

What you have regarded as rant, is merely my strong views about the mostly unnecessary use of the equipment on young horses.

If you find my repeated opposition to the equipment offensive, you are at liberty to ignore what you perceive to be ranting.

It would have been more meaningful if you had provided an opinion on the merits of affixing blinkers to an aggressive 2YO. Instead, you like so many other contributors seem to take pleasure in ridiculing others for their views.

I remain amazed at the inability of so many to engage in meaningful exchanges that fosters the sharing of ideas and opinions.

This mostly faceless forum seems to appeal to the worst in most of us.

Plod Boy Phil,

I initially assessed you to be a very bright individual. In the past we engaged in meaningful exchanges. You have chosen to avoid such exchanges in recent times and that's your prerogative.

Your continued endorsement of negative comments directed towards me, strongly suggests my initial assessment of you might have been seriously flawed.

26 Nov 2013 10:53 AM

With the first Kentucky Derby future wager pool opening tomorrow, I thought it might be fun if we each select two horses from the list and see who has the best luck in picking out future Derby horses. Perhaps one of us will even pick the winner!

I know it will be months before we see the results, but in the meantime, it will offer a bit of interest during the Triple Crown prep season as our horses attempt to advance toward the Derby.

For convenience, here is the list of the twenty-three individuals horses that comprise the pool, along with morning line odds:

1 Almost Famous 20-1

2 Bobby's Kitten 50-1

3 Bond Holder 50-1

4 Cairo Prince 30-1

5 Cleburne 50-1

6 Commissioner 50-1

7 Coup de Grace 50-1

8 Financial Mogul 50-1

9 Havana 30-1

10 Honor Code 15-1

11 In Trouble 50-1

12 Kobe's Back 50-1

13 Mexikoma 50-1

14 Misconnect 50-1

15 New Year's Day 20-1

16 Noble Moon 50-1

17 Pablo Del Monte 50-1

18 Ride On Curlin 50-1

19 Rise Up 50-1

20 Shared Belief 30-1

21 Strong Mandate 30-1

22 Tamarando 50-1

23 Tap It Rich 30-1

Of the horses on this list, I am most intrigued by Strong Mandate and Ride On Curlin. I believe that Strong Mandate was the best horse in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. After breaking from post thirteen, he got into a speed duel with Titan Conquest and Rum Point, who would eventually finish last and next-to-last after forcing Strong Mandate through a half-mile in :45.38 and three-quarters in 1:09.70. Then, nearing the homestretch, favored Havana passed Strong Mandate with a sweeping bid and was two lengths clear of the latter at the eighth pole. At this stage, Strong Mandate appeared to be out of the mix for a top-three finish, but in a remarkable performance, Strong Mandate actually came back at Havana in deep stretch, finishing just three-quarters of a length behind him at the wire. I really like the fact that Lukas is giving him a rest before the Triple Crown prep season, rather than running him in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes or CashCall Futurity. I expect Strong Mandate to be quite a force during the Oaklawn meet.

As for Ride On Curlin, I know he has been a bit . . . well, inconsistent, but he has a couple of very impressive performances on his record, including his third-place finish to Havana and Honor Code in the Champagne Stakes. As a son of Curlin, he should only get better next year, and I like the fact that he has demonstrated versatility in running style.

So the two colts that I'll stick with through thick and thin on the road to the Derby are Strong Mandate and Ride On Curlin. Would anyone else like to join me?

26 Nov 2013 11:45 AM
Little Bill

Relax bud. Dennis Miller made a living with his rants. Just an observation. It's not THAT derogatory.

My opinion on the subject from a handicapping stand point is, I let the trainer worry about that.

I don't remember. Did you mention the blinkers before the horse lost.

26 Nov 2013 11:55 AM
Little Bill

On the lighter side. How can own a horse called the Green Mask, stable colors are green and white, and not use green blinkers. That's what needs to happen.

26 Nov 2013 11:59 AM
Little Bill

I like Noble Moon. Could go this weekend.

26 Nov 2013 12:01 PM
Plod Boy Phil

re: Green Mask

His wining debut at Keeneland,  while not truly worthy of a downgrade,  was 'with' a modestly favorable Flow for Speed. In my world, horses, especially young, lightly raced ones, winning with the aid of race dynamics are always worthy of skepticism,  and immediate discard. From my perspective, before even attempting to evaluate whether the blinkers should be on or off the colt,  one must ask themselves:  Is this horse anything more than just another horse at this point in his career ?

As for the Real Quiet, without referencing figures, it's important to note that in analyzing GM's race on Saturday, the pace setter,  Karma King, set an open length lead and still finished ahead GM.  If any horse was disadvantaged by being overly aggressive, it was KK.

26 Nov 2013 12:15 PM

In regards to GM and one way that I look at this ship from west to east coast by Trainer Ward for the Saudi Arabian owner is:They were very pleased with his first and only race on the AW of Keeneland where its not as easy to win as a speed type horse as it is on a track like lets say Gulfstream or SA.

They got together and decided to roll the dice so to speak and put him in stakes competition in his 2nd race,although this was not a graded stakes race and if his goal was the Kentucky Derby there were no points up for grabs, at least as far as I know.

Ward has accomadations out west because he does this a lot ship from east to west.

The owner dosent run many horses as far as his records that I found.They were just TOO Optimistic in their opinion of their colt after only one race and they took a chance and rolled the dice shipping him across the country.

As I stated before I think the ship affected him more than the equipment,being that he is 2years old and he dosent know the game yet and he might not be talented enough to overcome his lack of experience with pure talent.

This is not my opinion of him going forward as he is only two years old and has only run two races so it is very possible to show improvement in future races.

26 Nov 2013 4:29 PM

I should have added when I write lack of experience and how that relates to a 2yo,is that everything is NEW to him including boarding on a plane and flying across the country to race for only the second time.

He was going to run on a different surface than his only race and running a longer distance.

An analogy he was the visiting team against the rest of the field basically, because they probably at the most had to take a van ride to get to the track,and they have probably already experienced this.

26 Nov 2013 4:49 PM

The list contains some impressive horses. Interestingly, the Mr. Prospector sire line accounts for 10 of the 24. The A P Indy sire line accounts for 7 and with Honor Code this line probably has the Derby favorite.

Two geldings have won the Derby since 1929 i.e., Funny Cide and Mine That Bird. Interestingly, both have been from The Mr. Prospector sire line. Shared Belief a son of Candy Ride and another gelding rom the Mr. P sire line has been very impressive in two starts. He was produced from a Storm Cat mare and appears to have the requisites speed and stamina to cover 10F in the average Derby time of 2:02.

The speedy 2010 SA Derby winner Sidney’s Candy was sire by Candy Ride and was also out of a Storm Cat mare. He finished unplaced in the Derby. Sidney’s Candy was a need to lead colt but Shared Belief is not.

In 2011 and 2012 Storm Cat mares produced two serious Derby contenders i.e., Dialed In and Bodermiester. I believe Shared Belief will be another serious Derby contender from a Storm Cat mare and he will be my wager in Derby Pool #1.

26 Nov 2013 9:10 PM

The Giants Causeway sired Pablo Del Monte has made the cut for Pool #1 with 2 victories by a combined 12 1/2L on the synthetic track at Keeneland.

Historically Giant’s Causeway 3YOs never featured in the Derby. However, I like this colt and I am hoping he will make a successful transition to dirt.

His dam line as it relates to his dam sire has rarely featured in the Derby and that is a negative. However, it might take a non-traditional dam line to get Giants Causeway into the Derby mix.

This colt will earn some of my cash as well.

26 Nov 2013 9:59 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Thanksgiving Eve

Woodbine R7

6 Best Behavior (4-1) - last out she pressed and briefly led an Extreme for Closers.  Her prior was modestly 'vs' as well.  Nine betting interests remain, but the ML seems optimistic in my eyes.

27 Nov 2013 6:08 PM

The KD fut was a h scratcher now the itch begins in Nov vs Feb.Need at least 50-1 for xtra time value and probably no intrinsick value too far away from the gate.

27 Nov 2013 7:32 PM

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