TimeformUS Weekend Plays: Thanksgiving Weekend Edition

Sunday Betfair Hollywood Park, Race 8, Local Post Time 4:07pm PT
The G1 Matriarch Stakes, 1 Mile, Fillies and Mares, 3+, Turf
By Justin Finch

The final Matriarch, like so many before it, will be a good one. The nine-horse field contains four Grade 1 winners and is loaded with accomplished fillies and mares. At time of writing, the forecast is that the rain that has been falling on Hollywood Park will give way to sunny weather on Sunday. We'll see how that goes.

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Let's begin by taking a look at the TFUS Pace Projector for this grass mile:


Pianist and Egg Drop are projected to be head and head for the lead at the opening half. Dayatthespa is close behind. Discreet Marq, Better Lucky, and Stormy Lucy follow in striking distance. Then it's back to Wishing Gate, while My Gi Gi and Tiz Flirtatious bring up the rear.
 
We will be tossing Discreet Marq, Wishing Gate, My Gi Gi, and Stormy Lucy from the top spots on the grounds that their speed figures are a little light in such a tough field. Here are the remaining five horses, with morning line odds:
 
Egg Drop (8-1): Mike Mitchell filly has found a home on the grass, where she has three wins from four starts. She enters this race off two Grade 2 victories, but this is a different order of competition today. The Race Rating from her last race, a 99, is dwarfed by the Race Ratings of the recent races of some of her competition. Her best grass speed figures, a 103 and a 106, are marginally competitive, and her rail draw, when combined with her early speed, gives her a look at a perfect trip here. Mitchell gets excellent ratings of 95 when he's attempting a repeat victory and 97 with race spacing similar to today's. This game filly is not without a chance, but this is a tall order.
 
Tiz Flirtatious (5-2): Grade 1 winner had a very difficult trip in the Breeders' Cup F/M Turf. She got into a difficult spot fairly late in the race, and that she somehow managed to make a run from there and lose by only two lengths is a testament to her quality. Her best speed figures (114, 110) can play with anyone in here. Her trainer, the splendid, underrated Marty Jones, gets a 100 rating in 3up grass stakes races. She fell a length short in this race last year (another gallant effort from a gallant mare). She's a strong contender, and if this race were a furlong longer, she would be our top choice. But she figures to be circling the field from last place or thereabouts, and at a short price, to boot.
 
Dayatthespa (3-1): Favored in last year's edition of this race, she had a trip that was about as eventful as trips get, ultimately coming undone and trying to jump the rail, thus losing all chance and injuring herself into the bargain. Her brilliant trainer, Chad Brown, got her straightened out after that debacle, and she is back in style. Another Grade 1 winner, she enters this race off a powerful speed figure of 114--earned while losing by a head to Better Lucky, whom we will be getting to shortly. Dayatthespa exits a race that received a strong Race Rating of 112. She comes in off 57 days rest. Chad Brown gets so many ratings of 100 in the relevant TFUS categories that we aren't going to bother citing them. She figures for a good stalking trip. Strong contender.
 
Pianist (6-1): Chad Brown again. So fill in all the 100 ratings. Pianist ships to California off two 108 speed figures. She has twice won Grade 3s. She nearly won a Grade 2. She gets tested for class today. The Race Rating of her last race was a 107--a cut below the best in here. She may be able to clear her early competition and drop over to the rail before the first turn. We don't really see this filly winning this race, nor do we see her as hopeless. At minimum, she is usable in exotics.
 
Better Lucky (9-2). She won this race last year, and we like her chances to repeat. She has two Grade 1 victories to her credit.  She has run speed figures of 114 in her last two starts. She was visually impressive in her last start, making a long wide run to reach the lead and outdueling Dayatthespa in a long drive. This will be her third start off a short layoff, and her trainer, Thomas Albertrani, gets a terrific 99 rating in these situations. She has good rest coming into this race. At anything like her morning line odds, she is our selection.

Sunday Betfair Hollywood Park, Race 6, Local Post Time 3:04pm PT
The G1 Hollwood Derby, 1 and 1/4 Miles, 3yo, Turf
By Robert Finnegan


Sunday's Grade 1 Hollywood Derby brings together 10 horses to run 10 furlongs on a turf course that we expect to be firm.  The colt to beat is Admiral Kitten, but as with most deep closers, Admiral Kitten's chances will depend heavily on the pace scenario, which doesn't figure to be favorable to his chances of winning.  This is an animal who always seems to fire, but he has been a bridesmaid five separate times this year and visited the winner's circle only once. In a big field, it's difficult to accept the 5-2 morning line on a horse who has more often than not come up short.  That said, we fully expect Admiral Kitten to contend for the victory on Sunday. He has strong speed figures. His trainer gets a TFUS Trainer Rating of 94 when switching circuits, as he is doing today. Indeed, there is plenty to like here. But there are certainly candidates that could get the jump on him and leave him with too much to do in the final stages of the race.

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The TimeformUS Pace Projector puts the #3 horse, Gervinho (8-1 ML), on an uncontested early lead in a race that favors horses on or close to the pace.  Gervinho is coming off a dull effort in which he posted a disappointing 92 figure while finishing a close-up third in the Grade 2 Twilight Stakes.  But there are reasons to think Gervinho is sitting on an improved effort as he stretches out to 10 furlongs.  Based on his two-year-old figures, this is a horse with plenty of upside.  A year ago, he ran a 96 figure in finishing a close 5th in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf.  The race must have knocked him out because he didn't come back to the races until June of this year.  In his four starts as a three-year-old, Gervinho has run well, if not quite spectacularly, hitting the board in each start and posting a top figure of 100.  He retains the services of Rafael Bejarano, and trainer Carla Gaines sports a strong 96 rating when using Bejarano. Gervinho is a threat to steal the race.


 
European shippers must always be taken seriously when they challenge US-based horses on the grass.  While we don't expect Seek Again to be anywhere near his 6-1 morning line when the gates open, this horse is a major threat.  Two races back, he finished 5th in a stakes race, which seems a bit more impressive when you consider that 31 horses went to post for the race, a number that makes the typical Kentucky Derby field look small by comparison.  Then, in winning his last race, Seek Again posted a 112 figure, which is by some distance the best number earned by any horse in this field.  Intuitively, we harbor some degree of skepticism about this colt's 10-furlong breeding, with the sprint sire Speightstown on top, but the 83 Pedigree Rating for turf routes helps calm the nerves a bit.  Perhaps the dam-side breeding will come in handy because we feel he's another who will get the jump on Admiral Kitten and have every opportunity to hold that one at bay in the final strides.
 
Longshot Irish Surf rates a look.  This horse promises to be at least 15-1, and possibly north of 30-1.  Note that this is one of the few horses in the field with experience at this distance.  In fact, Irish Surf has been running against older horses at longer distances.  Two races back, he lost to Indy Point by only six lengths.  Indy Point hit the board in the Breeders' Cup Turf.  A repeat of that sort of effort gives Irish Surf a good chance to be in the exotics on Sunday.
 
The Play:  Gervinho and Seek Again in multi-race wagers.  Gervinho and Seek Again in an exacta box, and then Admiral Kitten underneath each in exactas.  Gervinho, Seek Again, and Admiral Kitten on top in trifectas with the same three and Irish Surf in the two/three holes.

Friday Churchill Downs, Race 11, Local Post Time 5:35pm ET
The G1 Clark Handicap, 1 and 1/8 Miles, 3+, Dirt
By Douglas Salvatore

A fascinating edition of the Clark Handicap is led by Game On Dude and Will Take Charge. The former was a soundly beaten post time favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, and the latter came up just a nose short in a very exciting stretch drive.

They are joint highweights from a weight-for-age standpoint, the older Game On Dude carrying 126 pounds and the three-year-old Will Take Charge shouldering 123 pounds.

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Handicappers must answer one compelling question with Game On Dude. Can he recapture the tremendous form he was in prior to his abysmal showing in the Breeders’ Cup Classic?

Game On Dude hasn’t raced at Churchill Downs since finishing second in the 2011 Breeders’ Cup Classic at 14/1 odds under Chantal Sutherland. He draws the inside post position and won’t be able to make an easy lead with the presence of the very speedy stretch-out sprinter Our Double Play in this race. He’ll need to be at his par level of form to win.

Meanwhile, the question with Will Take Charge is not if he can recapture his good form. He’s obviously in incredible form right now. Rather, the question is whether he can maintain that excellent form for one more race.
Will Take Charge had a sensational summer campaign, finishing a good second to Palace Malice in the Jim Dandy before winning the Travers by a nose at 9/1 odds. Lukas, somewhat uncharacteristically, allowed Will Take Charge to run in the Breeders’ Cup Classic off of a six-week layoff, and he responded by running his eyeballs out and delivering a double-digit new career-top speed figure of 121.

Now, however, off of just 27-days rest and the most gut-wrenching performance of his career, Will Take Charge must ship back to Churchill and make his 11th start of the season.

From a statistical standpoint, D. Wayne Lukas-trained horses have struggled mightily at Churchill Downs over the last few years. And they are just 1-for-63 at Churchill Downs so far in 2013. Note his mediocre trainer rating of 36 here. Since 2008, Lukas-trained horses are just 1-for-85 in stakes races at Churchill Downs.

Worst of all, since 2008, they are just 36-for-444 (8% wins and a miserable $0.82 ROI) in dirt races at Churchill.

It’s going to be hard to accept a short price on Will Take Charge in the Clark after such a strenuous effort in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

Golden Ticket will almost certainly be the third choice in the wagering, but I feel pretty confident that he can be opposed. It is true that Golden Ticket raced against a speed-biased track when he finished second in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. However, he received the pace setup of a lifetime. Goldencents ripped off impossibly fast fractions and gutted every horse who tried to stay in contact with him. The final quarter of the dirt mile was a pedestrian 26.48 seconds over a surface that was yielding incredibly fast times. Golden Ticket did all of his running as the race collapsed.

From a pure value standpoint, Easter Gift is unquestionably the horse we want to key in the Clark. He ran a career-best speed figure of 115 last time out and has been freshened for excellent trainer Chad Brown. Note the slew of 100 trainer ratings Brown possesses. Easter Gift has been hindered by poor breaks, slow paces, or wide trips over his last four starts, and, while most horses exiting Breeders’ Cup races tend to disappoint, he’s the horse who comes into this race most likely to fire his best shot.

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Betting Strategy: Bet Easter Gift to win. And key him underneath Game On Dude and Will Take Charge in the exacta.

Friday Betfair Hollywood Park, Race 8, Local Post Time 3:30pm PT
The G2 Citation Handicap, 1 and 1/16 Miles, 3+, Turf
By Robert Finnegan

The $250,000 Grade Two Citation handicap features eight strong older horses running 8.5 furlongs on the Hollywood Park turf. For handicappers, it’s an interesting puzzle, one that raises questions related to both class and condition, as several of the leading contenders exit tougher races, and a late-developing five-year-old tests the deeper waters of stakes competition. The chance of rain in Southern California leading into Friday only adds to the degree of difficulty.

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For those who believe in class, the first question is if the intriguing 12-1 longshot Bio Pro is up to this level of competition. Bio Pro was last seen on October 27th, when he won a restricted stakes race in stylish fashion and earned a speed figure of 110. He comes back 33 days later needing to repeat or improve upon this career-best effort in order to factor into this Black Friday affair. Although he has raced nine times in a year that began with a maiden claiming victory, his last race left the impression of a horse capable of further short-term improvement. Bio Pro’s trainer, Howard Zucker, is a competent veteran who sports a strong 86 rating with horses coming back on 24 to 41 days rest. Zucker also scores the maximum, a 100, with turf routers.

TimeformUS PPs for Bio Pro

The top morning line selections, Silentio (5/2) and Winning Prize (7/2), both appear equipped to win this event. Silentio is coming off a 124 figure for his excellent third-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. If he repeats that performance, he will be very difficult to beat, but he is likely to regress off only 27 days of rest. His trainer, Gary Mandella, sports a modest 64 rating off of comparable rest. Silentio benefited from an ideal inside stalking trip in the BC Mile, and, while he has run consistently well all year long, he has yet to post a single victory in five starts. We cannot support him as the likely wagering favorite.

With only two career starts in the US, Winning Prize is a difficult horse for this handicapper to take a strong stand on. The TimeformUS Pace Projector puts Winning Prize just off a fast pace set by a longshot to his inside. While it’s clear from his two performances in the US that Winning Prize has good tactical speed, it remains to be seen if he can settle just behind a rapid pace and deliver enough late kick to defeat this solid field. He is, however, in the masterful hands of trainer Neil Drysdale, who sports an 82 rating with horses coming in off a 41-69 day gap between starts. Also note that Drysdale has worked this horse seven times since the October 5th Shadwell Turf Mile, a race that was rained off the turf and instead contested on a moist and unpredictable poly surface. Winning Prize ran a creditable fourth in that race, earning a strong speed figure of 117, and now returns to his preferred surface, where he sports an outstanding 7-6-1-0 lifetime record. He’s the type of horse we would include in every exotic position but refuse to key.

This leaves cross-country shipper Summer Front (4-1 ML) as the selection. Like Winning Prize, Summer Front exits the Shadwell (Poly) Mile (and a sixteenth). The four-year-old son of War Front is zero-for-three lifetime in non-turf affairs, which makes his last race a throw-out. He has won seven of eleven career turf starts, and his only off-the-board finish was at a mile and a quarter on this surface, a race in which he had a very difficult trip and was stuck behind a wall of horses at the key moment of the race. He has run only four times in 2013 and appears primed by his skilled trainer, Christophe Clement (94 overall trainer rating, 91 rating on 41-69 days rest, 96 rating with jockey Joe Bravo), to deliver a peak performance. From his inside post position, Summer Front figures to save ground well off a solid pace and should have every opportunity to make a big impact on the race in the final 50 yards.

TimeformUS PPs for Summer Front

The Play: Summer Front to win. Summer Front in exacta boxes with Winning Prize (heavy) and Bio Pro (lighter). Summer Front keyed on top in trifectas with Winning Prize, Bio Pro, and Silentio.

Saturday Aqueduct, Race 8, Local Post Time 3:20pm ET
The G1 Cigar Mile Handicap, 1 Mile, 3+, Dirt
By Douglas Salvatore

It isn't all that common to see a three-year-old made the outright high weight in a Grade 1 Handicap race against open competition, but that is what Goldencents has been made in what could potentially be a case-maker for an Eclipse Award. Of course any such divisional championship bid would require either a flop by Will Take Charge in Friday's Clark or voters to credit brilliant wins at a mile towards Goldencents' resume as a sprinter.

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Even though precedents from eras long gone would suggest Goldencents shouldn't have been assigned high weight over older horses as accomplished as Flat Out and Groupie Doll, recent form does suggest that Goldencents deserves that honor.

Goldencents has rattled off three consecutive speed figures of 119, and his victory in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile, even over a speed-biased surface, was an absolutely devastating display. In plain English, Goldencents ran his eyeballs out in the Dirt Mile. Sent early from extreme outside post position number eleven, he set blistering early fractions and gutted all of his early pursuers.

With a click of the "behind" button, the TimeformUS result chart reveals that all of his early pursuers faded from chasing him, and that the horses who ended up finishing first and second were both at least 14 lengths behind him after a half mile.

The crucial question is, can Goldencents reproduce that type of form today? I don't believe he can. The cross country ship and the projected quick early pace over a tiring Aqueduct surface that has been producing moderate raw final times are enough reason to have doubts.

Groupie Doll was purchased for $3,100,000 as a broodmare prospect out of a sale at Keeneland a few weeks ago. Her new owner, Mandy Pope, is gamely giving the five-year-old champion a swan song against the males. Groupie Doll is an admirable champion, and she missed by only a nose in a weaker edition of this race last year. However, her recent speed figures indicate she's in over her head, and after gamely gutting out a win over Judy The Beauty in her seasonal main objective last time out, it's hard to believe she'll elevate her form in a race that is an afterthought. Groupie Doll is a bet against.

Verrazano is a powerful colt who has performed at his best with easy trips in races over dull surfaces. Verrazano's career-top speed figure of 121 came over a dull and tiring Monmouth Park surface that was yielding slow final times in route races all day long. It stands to reason that he will appreciate Aqueduct's main track if it continues to play as slow as it has for most of this meet, but there is an awful lot of pace pressure in this race, and we will look to play against him.

Flat Out will be our key horse. Not only does he project a favorable trip from behind an expected fast pace, but he has always been a genuine top-class horse at NYRA tracks (as well as a relative chump when he's shipped outside of New York). Flat Out's season-best speed figure of 129 came at today's distance, and he can certainly win this if he runs his race. Historically, this race has been won by routers more than sprinters, and Flat Out is the horse who best fits that profile.

Betting Strategy: Win bet on Flat Out.

Saturday Aqueduct, Race 9, Local Post Time 3:49pm ET
The G2 Remsen Stakes, 1 and 1/8 Miles, 2YO, Dirt
By Douglas Salvatore

TimeformUS past performances have a cool feature that allows you to display the incremental splits for each horse. In the case of Honor Code's career debut (at seven furlongs), he crawled his opening quarter in 24.89 seconds. His second quarter was a snail-like 24.36 seconds. Horses normally start to decelerate sharply in the third quarter of seven furlong races, but not Honor Code. He turned on the rockets and unleashed a 22.29-second third quarter, much of it run around the far turn. After that freakish third quarter, he powered home with a final furlong in 11.94 seconds over the gooey going, and easily drew off to win by more than four lengths, with a pair of next-out winners finishing second and third behind him.

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Even though it earned a speed figure of just 82, Honor Code's debut win was the stuff of legend. Indeed, the hype was so great that he was pounded down to 9/5 favoritism in the Champagne Stakes next time out.

While benefiting from a quick and contested early pace and added distance in the Champagne Stakes, Honor Code again displayed a great deal of ability, this time when finishing second beaten just a neck to Todd Pletcher's best two-year-old, Havana. Honor Code was assigned a 108 speed figure for that performance, and he achieved that speed figure despite racing extremely wide on the far turn. No other horse in today's field has ever run a figure faster than 100, and, being a son of A. P. Indy, Honor Code should not be hindered by the added distance of the Remsen.

Even at a short price, we can't oppose Honor Code. We also can't find much value from an exotic wagering standpoint. Cairo Prince was phenomenal in the Nashua, and Noble Moon also ran quite well in defeat. We simply do not see any clever ideas and do not feel that this is the right type of race to go fishing around for long prices.

Betting Strategy: Honor Code on top. Cairo Prince and Noble Moon underneath in exotics.  

Thursday Aqueduct, Race 8, Local Post Time 2:42pm ET
The G3 Fall Highweight Handicap
, 6F, 3+, Dirt
By Douglas Salvatore

Eight horses are scheduled to go to post in this year’s edition of the Fall Highweight. The weight imposts range from high-weighted Strapping Groom at 135 pounds, down to Jake N Elwood and B Shanny, who each shoulder 127 pounds.

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Sage Valley is the selection here, and we think there is a good chance you’ll get all of his 3/1 morning line price and possibly a bit more than that. In his most recent start, in the De Francis Dash at Laurel, he broke slow, raced behind a moderate early pace, and suffered a wide trip while finishing dead last. For Sage Valley, it was the second straight dismal performance over a sloppy track.

TimeformUS PPs for Sage Valley

The betting public can get very attached to recent form, and Sage Valley had some unappealing recent form before receiving a freshening. However, he owns the field’s highest speed figure in 2013, earned when he won the James Marvin at Saratoga in a race where today’s 5/2 morning line favorite, Strapping Groom, was defeated by 8.5 lengths.

Perhaps most crucial to his case is the fact that Sage Valley is trained by Rudy Rodriguez. Rudy’s training base is located at Aqueduct, and his horses train over this main track, which allows them a home field advantage of sorts. Throughout his training career, Rudy’s stats on the main track at Aqueduct dwarf his stats at most other tracks.

Indeed, Rudy Rodriguez-trained horses are 177-47-34-29 (27% wins, 62% in the money and a dazzling $2.46 ROI) in sprint races over the main track at Aqueduct. Sage Valley has raced only one time over the Aqueduct main for Rudy, and he ran a still-standing lifetime-top speed figure of 116 in that try. That 116 also came as a three-year-old, and represented a new top by 18 points.

Rudy Rodriguez has a very good trainer rating of 89 with horses off of similar layoffs. Sage Valley has been training well for this race, and he gets a favorable six-pound weight break from Strapping Groom today, as well as the services of Joel Rosario.

 

70 Comments

Leave a Comment:

KY VET

pool 1.......sorry, when has the remsen been this strong? my top 2 best 2yrolds iv'e seen are in there,,,,,the remsen? honor code is a monster.......and karian's horse also.....only 15 to 1 and 30 to 1.......shug! when does a horse of his fire that big 1st out?.....answer? he didnt....watch and learn ...watch him fire in the remsen.........i know what a good horse looks like..........

28 Nov 2013 8:40 PM
KY VET

pool 1.......sorry, when has the remsen been this strong? my top 2 best 2yrolds iv'e seen are in there,,,,,the remsen? honor code is a monster.......and karian's horse also.....only 15 to 1 and 30 to 1.......shug! when does a horse of his fire that big 1st out?.....answer? he didnt....watch and learn ...watch him fire in the remsen.........i know what a good horse looks like..........

28 Nov 2013 8:40 PM
KY VET

horse number 1 goes this weekend.......lets get the gray in the circle!

28 Nov 2013 8:41 PM
Coldfacts

Cairo Prince winning time of 1:37.59 ranks as the 4th slowest in the last 17 renewals of the Nashua contested at a distance of 8F.  Only Bluegrass Cat – 1:38.02, Listen Here - 1:37.60 and Mass Market – 1:38.60 were slower.

If this colt makes the top 2 on any list, then clearly, exposure to the 2YO class of 2013 has been limited. He is clearly talented but is no monster as he falls short of many in the class of 2013.  

A careful review of the Nashua will reflect the less than ideal trip experienced by 4th place finisher Intense Holiday. He was bottled up behind horse down the back stretch and was angled to the outside and then back to the rails only to be blocked at a crucial point in the race. His rider to not persist with him after it was apparent he was out of contention for one of the top 3 spots.

I am of the opinion Honor Code is the colt to beat but I cannot see Cairo Prince finishing ahead of Intense Holiday should he experience a better trip.

There are two horses in the field that have me puzzled:

Metal Iceberg effortlessly won his MSW debut at a 1 1/6 on turf in a good time of 1:42.72. This was back in September. He was vanned of after the race. His return after 9 weeks is in a graded race on dirt. Why? He will clearly stay 9F but will he make a successful transition to dirt? He is an interesting colt whose dam was sire by Aptitude the only son of A P Indy to finish runner up in the Kentucky derby.

Matuszak finished a dismal 5th in an AlwOC won impressively by Almost Famous on 11/09/2013. He returns 21 days later to contest a graded stakes over 9F against a tougher field than the Allowance Optional Claim in which he finished 5th. He has won and has been beaten in very slow times against lesser company. Why was he entered in this race?

While his numbers are unimpressive, his pedigree is the opposite. He was sired by Bernardini and out of a G3 winning Mr. Prospector mare. His trainer would not enter him in a race to make up numbers or to gain experience.

Will the Big A surface change his fortunes? One can only hope in the interest of exotic wagers.

29 Nov 2013 1:05 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Friday Fair Grounds R8 Pago Hop

1 Promise Me More (9/2)gives up turf experience,  but has impressed in both races on the green. Legit chance to run by them all.

4 Eden Prairie returns for us following a brutal beat second in the Raven Run - upgrade that 'quick to zip' move into a Closers Flow.  

29 Nov 2013 2:52 PM
Little Bill

I think the 5 will show up in the Pogo Hop.

29 Nov 2013 5:02 PM
Brontexx

I think Honor Code should win the Remsen but he already reminds me of Union Rags in the sense that he is already considered cant miss for the KD and its only November.

I have nothing against him but they are too far away from the gate.

As for pool one long shots at least 50-1 or more if I bet at all, in exactas with all others because theres a great chance the all others entry will contain at least one of the finishers of the exacta this being November

29 Nov 2013 9:11 PM
KY VET

youre right brontexx! just like when i won 5 grand on street sense......you have to bet more than the horse......you have to see the future.......know how the horse will be handled......carl n  had the best horse....they gave me 10 to 1......i knew, that the horse would only have a couple of soft preps, then fire his best in the derby..................now, in a very very soft crop so far......i know how shug trains.......i know, he doesnt squeeze the lemon......he doesnt have them too tight for their 1st outs.......the horse parked! then ran about the same 2nd out........what do you think youll see sat?   you all will find out!   this horse projects to run huge! therefore, horses will scare other contenders away for his spring preps.......making his preps all the easier.....2 maybe 3 preps before the derby...........winning easily in hand.......then ready derby day..............this race tomorrow, will set these wheels in motion...........see the future people!!!!!

29 Nov 2013 9:49 PM
KY VET

brontexx misses the biggest reason why this horse is not even close to a comparison to union rags..........union rags was sharp all of his 2yr old year.......honor code hasnt even fired until tomorrow......dumb comparison........and who's considering him a cant miss?  not that much talk......its wide open.....the all others is said to be cant miss............only people like ragulazoin...whatever his name is, picks 2 yr olds that are monsters in july............ask yourself....after honor code freaks in the remsen, would you want to run against him in his preps? answer: hell no! its knowing things like this.....that separate the pro's and the beginners.......i've won more money on the derby, than any other race....i can lose every derby the rest of my life and still be ahead in that race......yes, its a fun gamble betting so early, but fun entertainment.........

29 Nov 2013 10:05 PM
Brontexx

KVet go ahead and bet him you dont need my approval.He should win he Remsen.

30 Nov 2013 4:54 AM
Brontexx

KVet go ahead and bet him you dont need my approval.He should win he Remsen.

30 Nov 2013 4:54 AM
Kevin

I actually like Noble Moon in the Remsen.  Not excited about the pace scenario for Honor Code to close from so far back.  Maybe he wins, but not for me.  I'll take the odds.

And a future bet 11-1 for a horse that may not even make the starting gate?  Not for me either.

I like Saratoga Snacks to pick up the pieces in the Cigar Mile at big odds.

Playing a Churchill show parlay to keep my interest but really just want to watch the 2 year olds to see if any will make noise in the spring

1)  5

2)  8

3)  3

4)  10

5)  12

6)  10

7)  9

8)  1

9)  8

10) 9

11) 2

12) 10

30 Nov 2013 9:31 AM
Coldfacts

Kevin,

At your leisure review the three races contested by the Canadian based Ami's Holiday.

In his last race his performance was compromised by the lack of early pace and being stuck behind horses close to the wire.

I have not seen his strides on many of the American based 2YOs.

His dam sire is Belmont winner and deep closer Victory Gallop. I therefore consider him an excellent prospect to the Derby.

30 Nov 2013 9:50 AM
Plod Boy Phil

re: The Grey

Neutral Flow on a track playing kind to closers.

30 Nov 2013 10:06 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Saturday Churchill R9 The Goldenrod

5 Bird Maker (5-1)impressed us with her 'vs Plod' MSW win last out when running through an Extreme for Speed from mid-pack. Prospects of talented 2yos stepping from MSW wins to Stakes company far more promising than with older maiden winners.

30 Nov 2013 10:11 AM
Brontexx

I think I will pick Laugh Track as a contest pick(Equibase) and with the rest of names in the field hope to get at least 12-1 his morning line in the Cigar Mile.

I hope to keep the same pilot from his last race(Smith) and use that race(BC Sprint) to set him up to win this one.

30 Nov 2013 12:11 PM
Drinks from a glass !!

Think like bill Mott.     Win like coldfacts.     ....

Matuszak has foundation to be sure. 1 1/16 th.       9/21/13 cd sloppy.      

Mott is working this horse slow and long.     A podding horse on a slow track.     I like this horse in all spots.       !!!    

The bottom side.      Is mr p.    good fortunes to all.    

30 Nov 2013 12:55 PM
Kevin

Interesting betting in the 3d at Churchill.  10-1 ML horse that has never raced on grass and from a dam with no grass winners opens and stays at 3-1.  

30 Nov 2013 1:27 PM
KY VET

another year.....of coldcuts listing 30 well bred tomato cans! remember all those maidens last year? "why isnt this mdn on the top 10 list?" and another year of...."that horse ran a slow time!" comparing times of diff tracks without a variant..........30 fricken mdns....none ever make it to the derby........lasix this, blinkers that.....excuses........contrarian view of any good horse that comes along.................7 trainers!

30 Nov 2013 2:16 PM
KY VET

oh....yea......my horse is gonna get claimed today........hope he gets in the circle.........go ahead people.....claim him! we will just claim another one.......my new filly runs next week! might need some luck with that one.........

30 Nov 2013 2:18 PM
Kevin

Honor Code was impressive to come back after being passed by a length.  But they crawled up front and crawled home.

Have heard some rave that he showed speed.  25 and 52 is not speed.  People who bet 11-1 on the futures are probably feeling jipped at this point.  

30 Nov 2013 4:59 PM
Brontexx

Here is Union Rags record as a 2yo

Union Rags 4 3 1 0 $858,800

Honor Codes will read 3   2   1   0

        $388,000

UR only ran 1 more race but he earned over  $470,800 more

30 Nov 2013 5:04 PM
Brontexx

Lets see which route the connections of Honor Code choose in his progression to the KD.He already has 20 points.

Will they choose to stay in New York like Alpha did a couple of years ago or will they choose Florida like Orb did last year.

30 Nov 2013 5:55 PM
KY VET

Taking donations for the blind........kevin thinks they crawled home......11 4/5? on that track? thats as fast as a horse can run last eighth........perfect result.....both my derby horses....noses apart..........brontexx...florida, fl. derby......this is the top dog..........440w honor code 200w cairo prince...............which is the amount i won betting my horse today......hey mary....he won! but 1 claim....we lost him..............see the future guys!

30 Nov 2013 7:17 PM
KY VET

Taking donations for the blind........kevin thinks they crawled home......11 4/5? on that track? thats as fast as a horse can run last eighth........perfect result.....both my derby horses....noses apart..........brontexx...florida, fl. derby......this is the top dog..........440w honor code 200w cairo prince...............which is the amount i won betting my horse today......hey mary....he won! but 1 claim....we lost him..............see the future guys!

30 Nov 2013 7:17 PM
KY VET

brontexx......you cannot compare those......union rags was sharp all year.......earlier! honor skipped the cup! he hasnt run fast races yet.......here's a tip.......races hurt horses!   you will learn, hopefully...........

30 Nov 2013 7:20 PM
derbygal

Lets see which route the connections of Honor Code choose in his progression to the KD.He already has 20 points.

Brontexx 30 Nov 2013 5:55 PM.

Honor Code finished 2nd in the Champagne, earning 4 points, and won the Remsen, earning 10 points!

01 Dec 2013 1:06 AM
Coldfacts

Wow! Remsen 1:52.92 and Demoiselle 1:52.62.

While I recognized that there would not have been a lot of pace in the Remsen, I could not envisage the fillies recoding a faster time at the equivalent distance.

I projected that at least Intense Holiday would have finished ahead of Cairo Prince but he had no pace to assist him. In fact he might have run what appeared to be an improved race because of same.

The performance of the 3rd place finisher must be noted based on the barn in which he is conditioned. In the gallop out he left CP miles behind.

It appears Cairo Prince is going to have problems with the Derby distance. The absence of a strong gallop out must be seen an  indicator.

The Remsen fields over the years continue to produce mediocre times. Should anyone be optimistic about the Derby prospect of the top 4? Its probably too early to draw conclusions. However, when a MSW winner get that close to opponents with graded stakes experience, there are no positive reflections on those that finished ahead.

01 Dec 2013 7:21 AM
Brontexx

KVet who made you the czar of horseracing I can compare any two horses I like as this is a subjective pursuit.As far as me learning you will learn a lesson not to bet against me.

01 Dec 2013 8:02 AM
Brontexx

Derbygal very good you corrected a mistake that I posted, which fits in to a lot of other post made on here.

01 Dec 2013 8:04 AM
Pedigree Ann

The early pace in the Remsen was glacial - 25.84 52.74 1:17.56. No wonder the first two home were right up there just behind the frontrunners. It was jog early and a sprint home.

Honor Code was closer to the front than usual because his usual 'back in the pack' tempo ended up being what they were running up front. I was more impressed (in Derby potential) by the third finisher, Wicked Strong, because he actually closed down a significant gap on the first two in the final furlong, despite the slow pace. He has a nice blend of staying speed (Hard Spun), miler speed (2nd and third dams), and stout stayer (Turkoman, Summer Squall and With Approval) in his pedigree.

01 Dec 2013 9:20 AM
Coldfacts

Races hurt horses!

Has the modern thoroughbred changed to the extent that races now hurt them?

Horses fall into the category of beasts of burden. They should be able to race once every 30 days with out injury. However, they were not designed to carry weight in their backs and travel at the speeds 30-40mphs on various surfaces.

The great Native Dancer had the following racing program:

2YO - 8 races

3YO - 10 races

It is unlikely that he was seriously hurt as during that 18 race stretch.

The truth be told some horses get hurt but not all.

The iron horse Shackleford is an example of though thoroughbred. Champion 3YO designate Will Take Charge is another.

The blanket statement that racing hurt horses is ill-conceived.

There are many thing that lead to horses getting hurt and racing is the least amongst them.

Drugs, improper nutrition and improper training & conditioning are far greater contributors to horses getting hurt.

01 Dec 2013 9:46 AM
Brontexx

Ill refer back to the European saying regarding American horses good blood bad bone.I believe this is true of American racehorses of today but I wont provide my reasons why I believe this is so,I will let everyone make their own interpretation.

I will only say that it is complex and involves many factors not just one or two IMO.

One more thing if the connections of Honor Code manage to keep him running at top form six months from now in the Derby they will have done a masterful job.

01 Dec 2013 10:26 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Performances 'out of line' with an established ability level, or within a form cycle, often cause horses to regress (hurt) - some take several months to recover,  some never do.  

Let's look a three examples from 2013:

Itsmyluckyday (3yo c)- produced two 'out of line' efforts in a row in January.

Dreaming of Julia (3yo f)- freaked in the Fla Oaks.

Ron the Greek (6yo h)- ran his lights out in the Sunshine Millions then went months before repeating the effort.

01 Dec 2013 10:42 AM
Kevin

Pedigree Ann, I thought the same thing at first with Wicked Strong, but I wonder how much speed he has to be that far back with such slow fractions.  In a fast paced race, he'd be 20 lengths back.  

01 Dec 2013 1:08 PM
KY VET

It's no wonder, why i take all of your money people!   coldcuts is an absolute joke......is he ever right? about anything? the race was slow? really? capt.obvious.....yes the beyer will stink......feel free to throw them all out..........they ran only 3 furlongs.......perfect! 2 talented horses that havent peaked............

01 Dec 2013 7:02 PM
KY VET

plod boy is about the only won that knows anything on here.......coldcuts cant understand the improvement in diet, drugs, overall understanding of the horse has never been higher........what an idiot! have you been on the backstretch? been around horses? people keep saying the breed is weaker....everyone just keeps saying this....its not true....there is sci. proof....and horses are prehistoric animals...you cant change their bone in a few years and decades....genetics! get to know it!

01 Dec 2013 7:12 PM
KY VET

racing doesnt hurt horses? are you serious? what a boob!

01 Dec 2013 7:13 PM
Age of Reason

I don't mean to add to the others piling criticism on those who are gnashing their teeth about the slow Remsen time (slow fractions produce slow final times, boys and girls; after 6 furlongs in 1:17, I'd say about 1:51 would've been the best to hope for even from older horses on that track), but two year olds at Aqueduct running 9 furlongs who come home the last 3 furlongs in :35 and change are not "crawling" in any shape, form or fashion. Honor Code is a deserving hot early favorite for the Derby, and I'm sticking by my prediction post-Champagne: he has as good a chance as any we've seen of putting the mythical "late development syndrome" to bed once and for all. The grandson, Orb, might have been a harbinger of things to come.

By the way, McGaughey announced this morning that Honor Code will rest until the Fountain of Youth...

01 Dec 2013 7:32 PM
KY VET

35 and change on a track that was / is slow......kinda like street sense's bluegrass stks...weak time......

01 Dec 2013 10:19 PM
KY VET

maybe one of the weakest crops ever! at this point.......cant remember a weaker year....

01 Dec 2013 10:21 PM
KY VET

maybe one of the weakest crops ever! at this point.......cant remember a weaker year....

01 Dec 2013 10:21 PM
Coldfacts

Is the 2YO crop of 2013 the weakest in years? Well the cold facts suggest no.

Havana won the G1 Champagne as a next out MSW winner. He defeated the G1 Hopeful and G3 Bashford Manor winners Strong Mandate and Debt Ceiling.

Strong Mandate won the G1 Hopeful as a next out MSW winner. He defeated the G2 Saratoga Special and Sanford winners Corfu and Wired Bryan.

Bond Holder won the G1 FrontRunner as a next out MSW winner. He defeated G1 Del Mar Futurity winner and subsequent Real Quiet winner Tamarando

New Year’s Day won the Breeder Cup Juvenile as a next out MSW winner. He defeated the G1 Champagne, Hopeful, FrontRunner and Breeder Futurity winners Havana, Strong Mandate, Bond Holder and We Miss Artie.

The above next out MSW winners defeated one, two and in one instance three graded stake winners while scoring their respective graded stakes victories’

When a MSW winner wins a G1 race against graded stake winners, it’s no ordinary feat. In a weak 2YO crop there is always one, possibly two dominant members.

With the 2YO class of 2013, new G1 winner continue to emerge from the MSW ranks. This is not an indication of weakness but one of strength.

The 2013 BCJ was completed in approximately 1 second faster than the two previous year renewals.

The 2013 Champagne was completed in 0: 26 slower than the two previous year renewals.

The 2013 – Remsen was completed in 2:79 seconds slower than the 2012 renewals. However, the 2013 time was only 0.85 slower than the 2011 renewal.

The comparative time for the major races have not been dissimilar to those of previous crops. However, the number of graded stake winner in 2013 is up significantly over previous years.

To suggest that the 2013 2YO class is the weakest in years requires ignorance of serious enormity.

02 Dec 2013 12:34 AM
Coldfacts

The reason the top three finishers in the 2013 renewal of the Remsen came home in 35.56 is because the internal fraction for the first 6F were contested at snail’s pace. If they had recorded a slower final 3Fs the race might have exceeded the slowest time of 1:53.40 since the distance was changed to 9F in 1973.

The 2013 time of 1:52.92 ranks as the 5th slowest for the distance and the 2nd slowest in 17 years.

When talented horses run slow early they are expected to run much faster later. Would the top three in the 2013 Remsen have recorded a final 3F of 35.56 if the first 6F were not 1:17.56? Highly unlikely!

Remsen - 25.84,52.74,1:17.56, 1:41.13,1:52.92 (Final 3F 35.36)

Comely - 23.82,48:04,1:11.98, 1:37.15,1:49.52 (Final 3F 37.54)

Talented 3YO fillies recorded internal fractions for 4F & 6F that were approximately 4.7 & 5.5 seconds faster than those recorded by talented 2YO colts. They came home in 37.54.

The final 3Fs in 35.56 is not significant in the evaluation of the race and the ability of the runners. The important question is – Can the final time for the 2013 Remsen be used as a reasonable measure of the Derby winning potential of the top three?

The 1993 & 1994 winners of the Remsen went on to win the Derby. What times did they record?

Thunder Gulch - 1:53.80

Go For Gin - 1:52.60

The average times for the above two 1:53.21.

It appears Honor Code and company will be just fine for the Derby despite the slow time of the Remsen.

NB: Bluegrass Cat won the Remsen in 1:52.20 and went on to finish 2nd to Barbaro in the Derby.

02 Dec 2013 7:57 AM
Brontexx

Nobody knows when a racehorse has peaked even the trainers get it wrong.If you think you know then maybe you are wasting your time making peanuts betting on horse races,or maybe they should send the wagon to your residence to place you in the white jacket and take you away.

02 Dec 2013 9:01 AM
Brontexx

Last season the Louisisana Derby was changed back to 9 furlongs and the race had a large field as well as the preps leading up to it.

02 Dec 2013 9:13 AM
Coldfacts

Brontexx,

"maybe they should send the wagon to your residence to place you in the white jacket and take you away."

You are LOL funny!

02 Dec 2013 10:39 AM
Coldfacts

"Verrazano was the favored individual horse in the final of three Kentucky Derby Future Wager pools for 2013”

“Verrazano is the new Number 1 in the National Thoroughbred Racing Association’s weekly poll, topping last week’s chart topper Itsmyluckyday”  

Prior to the Derby I viewed many posts showering Verrazano with accolades I considered undeserved. The most egregious was the status of ‘Super Horse.’

It appears that every year a particular colt is selected to be the next Secretariat and is hyped beyond belief.  Union Rags and Uncle Mo preceded Verrazano. My question regarding those horses is usually the same. What have they done to attain super horse status?

Their records do not reflect world records, track records, stake records, largest margin of victory etc. Yet these colts are propelled into super stardom by people blinded by emotions.

With the pending 3YO season, it is hoped that many will remember the lessons learnt from placing horses that have not achieve anything exceptional, on the same level as mega stars of the past.

Separate the emotion from the cold facts!

02 Dec 2013 11:17 AM
Rusty Weisner

Coldfacts,

I agree, there's no reason to think there's something wrong with this crop (good research on the Remsen, thanks).  The last three Derby winners (and I'm sure we could go further back) didn't figure prominently as two year olds, and the Breeder's Cup Juvenile has almost become a negative predictor of Derby success.  Which is why I don't pay much attention till February.  Honor Code winning the Remsen means nothing. Remember the 1-2 finishers last year?  Havana seems to fit the Hansen/Shanghai Bobby mold.  I'd take "all others" if I were a betting man.

02 Dec 2013 11:38 AM
Brontexx

Dont be surprised if this blog is being monitored for possible white jacket inmates, all of us are possible candidates, maybe some more than others,but we know dont we.

02 Dec 2013 2:24 PM
Brontexx

To continue on your post Coldfacts

It appears that every year a particular colt is selected to be the next Secretariat and is hyped beyond belief.  Union Rags and Uncle Mo preceded Verrazano. My question regarding those horses is usually the same. What have they done to attain super horse status?

The people who rave about their bets in the Derby future pool yearly and repeat the same thing  every season hoping to get different results could probably meet the criteria for White Jacket Eligibility dont you think PS this season we are starting 6 months in advance in November instead of February.Thats right Honor Code KD futures bets could qualify for free room and board indefinitely.

02 Dec 2013 2:36 PM
Coldfacts

Brontexx,

I have already attained several white jackets so I can be excluded from those being monitored.

My crazy status is already known.

We can consider ourselves to be all crazy. We wager hard earned cash on 1000Lbs animal not designed to carry tiny humans armed with whips on their backs requiring them to continue running even when their three energy systems have been depleted.

Exchanging views on a sport and  an industry we all love is not a bad thing. There will always be opposing views. How said opposing views are evaluated by others provides a window into the character and maturity level of each contributor.

What is bad is the quest to score points and project others as idiots for their differing views.

Being mean and nasty is seen by some not as a liability but as an asset.  

02 Dec 2013 3:05 PM
Rusty Weisner

Brontexx,

I don't think Uncle Mo was overhyped.  He really did run fast in winning what are still the two most prestigious 2-yo races, the Champagne and the BCJuv.  It's not his fault if he suffered the effects of what Coldfacts likes to call Pletcher's "high octane program."  But you're right, it's wise to be wary of precocity in light of recent years.

02 Dec 2013 4:12 PM
KY VET

Coldcuts......what were the top beyers or brisnet ratings the last 10 years.......look at this crop so far...........end of story.......you keep posting times without variants....this makes you stupider, and stupider...................and coldcuts doesnt need a white jacket.......he wears a white apron ........dishwashers wear those..........

02 Dec 2013 4:24 PM
KY VET

brontexx......im a professional horseplayer......i dont need to work......i've made so much that i started buying horses........in last 2 years, my horses have won 9 out of 17 races.....is that good? jockey cost me a couple i think.....

02 Dec 2013 4:29 PM
KY VET

the cold facts are.......the horses the contrarian posts about, were all really good.......coldcuts posted over 20 horses....none did anything.....he is famous for his stupidity......just gets stupider.....

02 Dec 2013 4:31 PM
KY VET

the cold facts are.......the horses the contrarian posts about, were all really good.......coldcuts posted over 20 horses....none did anything.....he is famous for his stupidity......just gets stupider.....

02 Dec 2013 4:31 PM
Mary Zinke

Take a breath, KY. Congrats on your horse's win. I just forget to post here sometimes. You know I don't like what happened to your old horse. ("That's part of the game." is coming, right?)

Big Guy's been having good results. I like the Cali babies best so far. Tamarando, Shared Belief, New Year's Day. Also that Delta Jackpot winner, Rise Up. Remsen fractions were kinda weird. Winner came home fast.

Like that Hollywood Derby winner Seek Again very much. He could kick my cali favs' rear ends. Hope you all watched the Citation at BHP with Summer Front just getting beaten by the gorgeous Silentio.

02 Dec 2013 4:56 PM
Brontexx

Behind those tiny humans armed with whips and those 1000lb animals that grow and get heavier from 2 to 3years of age especially if allowed to rest on a farm are a lot of red faced humans cursing at the top of their lungs and most of all a lot of greed.

KVet which tax form do you use to file your gains and losses from being a professional gambler?

02 Dec 2013 5:18 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Mary -

The BCJ was an Extreme Race for Closers,  which in my eyes makes New Years Day's win look so much better than it was.  Of course, there's lot's of growing up to be done,  but he's in my downgrade bucket for now.

Thus far,  two 'speed' horses from that race have run back.  One was Rum Point - a miserable failure.  The other was Conquest Titan who had them ooooing and aaaaahing after his Alw1x win from far off the pace in the 10th at CD Sunday  He's a nice example of how speed in young developing horses should rarely be discounted.  In his case,  it was 'upgraded speed'.

02 Dec 2013 5:19 PM
Mary Zinke

Thank you for the advice, Phil. I liked New Year's Day because I was right about the BCJ, but I like The Big Guy's 2 yos better. I missed Conquest's Titan's win, so I will check that out.

02 Dec 2013 5:40 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Bel Air Babe,  an 0-50 maiden at Mountaineer,  won the 1st race tonight.

02 Dec 2013 7:07 PM
Coldfacts

To further highlight that the 2YO class of 2013 is not weak the following examples below provide evidence:

2012 -The G1, Hopeful, Champagne and Breeders Cup Juvenile were won by Shanghai Bobby.

2013 - The G1, Hopeful (Strong Mandate), Champagne (Havana) and Breeders Cup Juvenile (New Year’s Day) These colts were considered talented enough skip NW2s to contest G1 Stakes.

2012 – The 2013 early Derby favorite Violence won the Nashua as a next out MSW winner.

2013 - Cairo Prince did the same.

2012 – Uncaptured won the Iroquois and Kentucky Jockey Club.

2013 - Iroquois (Cleburne) and Kentucky Jockey Club (Tapiture). Both horses were eligible for NW2

In 2012 there were 5 graded stakes for 2YOs that were won by two horses. In 2013 those races were won by 5 different horses all of them were MSW winners that qualified for NW2s.

There can be no denying that the talent in the 2YO class of 2013 is deep.

02 Dec 2013 10:43 PM
KY VET

someone please point out......to coldcuts.......that mdn race winners of graded races.....makes my point stronger......somehow, he thinks it makes his case.........this is your brain on drugs......any questions?

03 Dec 2013 12:47 AM
KY VET

mary....my old horse came right back, and lost a bob at wire.....what.....having a diff owner is sad? the horse should be retired?  horses love to run.......he hates the farm.......next......

03 Dec 2013 12:50 AM
KY VET

please.....new years day? the race was really embarrassingly weak......on any scale..........any 2yr olds run fast? the kentucky races were embarrassing........not hard to figure out people.....the fav.skipped the juv.......he would have been chalk......then the race ran really weak.......not rocket science..........i actually make a little more,if my 2nd horse wins the derby.......im in great shape....the pool closed before the remsen...........

03 Dec 2013 12:57 AM
Coldfacts

"Late Development Syndrome"

The above has been associated with off springs of A P Indy. I have repeatedly reminded the contributor that advances this theory yearly that it is without merit.

Pulpit from A P Indy’s first crop won the Fountain Of Youth and Toyota Blue Grass and finished 4th in the Kentucky Derby.

Aptitude sired by A P Indy finished 2nd in the KD and Belmont.

Bernardini who did not have enough graded earnings to make the Derby won the Preakness. Many have attributed his victory to Barbaro’s misfortune. However, I firmly believe he would have defeated him even in a misfortune free race. Barbaro struggled to defeat Sharp Humor in the FL Derby. No 3YO got close to Bernardini after his 4th place finish in his debut race.

Rags To Riches won the Oaks & Belmont.

The above horses were clearly not impacted by LDS as they won and placed in major 3YO races.

The fact that A P Indy with his Royal Blue blood has not sired a Derby winner to date, this does not reflect LSD in his offsprings.

Mega sire of sires Mr. Prospector sired his 1st Derby at the age of 26. Honor Code from A P Indy's last crop could be the one that elevates him to elite company i.e., the sire of a winner of each leg of the TC.

Danzig, Storm Cat, Deputy Minister, Secretariat, Affirmed, Spectacular Bid to new a few did not sire a Derby winner by the end of their careers.

03 Dec 2013 8:56 AM
Mary Zinke

Yes, I like New Year's Day, but as I said, I like Tamarando and Shared Belief better. Tamarando was put in the 1m. Cal-bred stakes instead of the Juvenile. Otherwise, he would have been my BCJ win pick. You may research the reason for that race decision yourself, since I don't get into that subject where my friends are concerned, and therefore we remain friends, see?  Anyway. why I picked New Year's Day: He had beaten that good colt Bond Holder in a mdn race at Del Mar, then he didn't race again until the BC Juvenile. I liked Bond holder for one of my exacta box picks, along with the NY speed, Havana, and just before race time, New Year's Day, and I went with "the other Baffert" wps due to them having "faith" in him to run him off of the layoff. Now, I won't pick on anyone's future wager and I didn't make one this early, even with the juicy odds. The Famous Jessie is attending some January get-together in Vegas, so if I play, I'll send funds with her. Gotta let all of the dosage pickies do the research for me.  They enjoy that.

03 Dec 2013 1:30 PM
Mary Zinke

1. This new format is freak-tatious.

2. Yes, he should be retired.  Hates the farm, my a.

03 Dec 2013 1:35 PM
Coldfacts

I have been monitoring the number of mares bred by stallions to the success of the resulting offsprings in the Triple Crown in general and the Kentucky Derby in particular.

Based on my records over several years, stallions that are overbred have little success in the TC and particularly the KD.

The recently concluded Kentucky Derby Future Pool #1 contains a number of betting interests and based on the number of mares bred by their stallions, they are highly unlikely to win the Derby. I specify highly unlikely as Thoroughbred Racing is sport of glorious uncertainties.

That said the following betting interests have a big Derby winning hurdle to cross based on the number of mares bred by their respective sires in 2010:

Bobby’s Kitten – Kittens Joy - bred 173 mares

Coup de Grace – Tapit bred 169 mares

Havana – Dunkirk bred 186 mares

New Year’s Day – Street Cry bred 159 mares

Noble Moon – Malibu Moon bred 172 mares

Pablo Del Monte – Giants Causeway bred 217 mares

Ride On Curlin – Curlin bred 150 mares

Shared Belief  - Candy Ride bred 172 mares

Tap It Rich  - Tapit bred 169 mares

Stallions that have bred 140 mares and lower seem to dominate the TC and Derby.

Of the 21 stallion connected to the 24 betting interest, only 2 sired less than 100 mares:

Honor Code/Commissioner – A P Indy bred 80 mares

Tamarando  - Bertrando bred 50 mares

A P Indy and Bertrando are pretty old and that might have accounted for their low numbers. The odds are in favor of one of the three colts connected to A P Indy and Bertrando providing a return on a KTDF Pool wager.

It is highly unlikely that Honor Code's trainer will win back to back Derbies, its just too rare.

Tamarando trainer is well overdue for A Derby winner. However the Relaunch sire line from which Bertrando hails has not feature prominently in the Derby. That negative is eliminated by the dam line that has dominated the TC. Grand dam sire Deputy Minister needs not introduction.

04 Dec 2013 10:57 AM

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