The Brisnet.com Ultimate Guide to Betting Tampa Bay Downs

Tampa Bay Downs entranceTampa Bay Downs has (rightfully) earned its reputation as one of the more player-friendly tracks racing, and we at Brisnet.com and TwinSpires.com always welcome its return, which this year is Wednesday, December 4.

Daily Selections full-card analysis with best bets will be available all meeting long. This is a great tool for Tampa players in part because the multiple-race wagers at the track are so lucrative with 15% takeout on its daily Pick 5 and 18% takeout on twice-daily Pick 4s and rolling Pick 3s (there are three Pick 4s on 12-race cards).

Like any (honest) horseplayer, I know that I handicap certain races better than others. As someone who loves multi-race wagers, Daily Selections is like a friend to talk through the sequence with, point out horses I may have missed, or give the necessary encouragement to single. Even more important is that it's the same friend every day. The Brisnet.com full-time handicapper who did opening day at Tampa did the meet last year and will do the rest of the meet this year. It's someone who knows the track.

Numbers know the track, too, and 2012-2013 meeting statistics can give a clue as to what information is more powerful than others when handicapping. Again, there is no oracle-no be-all, end-all opinion or stat that will guarantee profits, but number crunching, like consulting Daily Selections, can help make plays more profitable by eliminating underlays and including overlays.

I used my ALL-Ways database to look at win percentages, ROI, and impact value of how certain handicapping angles performed during the 2012-2013 race meeting.

The highlights:

In 652 main track races (all conditions), the horse with the best winning percentage on dirt won 40.95% of the races. That is a staggering statistic to me, though not one that escaped most bettors because the Impact Value is "only" 1.45 with an ROI of -18.5%. Still, respect dirt form!

Consider class. The top class only won 27% of all 913 races at last year's meeting, but the Impact Value was a robust 2.18 with a -9% ROI (i.e., ahead of takeout). Horses ship in from all sorts of different tracks. Pay careful attention to the strengths of the races, and don't assume that New York or Kentucky is always > Calder or Suffolk. Let Brisnet.com's Class Ratings be your guide!

Trust Brisnet.com's pedigree information when racing on an off track. Tampa had good weather last year, as only 54 (5.9%) of the meeting's 913 races were run on off going, but the top mud pedigree won 22 (40.74%) of them with a 2.22 Impact Value and ROI of +32%. If the pedigree says a horse can run on the mud, trust that info at Tampa Bay Downs (for more information on pedigree handicapping, check out American Produce Records Online);

The top Prime Power horse won 283 (31%) of the races throughout the meeting-an impact value of 2.57 and pretty much right at the takeout mark of a -18% ROI. To me this number is less about automatically going with the top-ranked horse than it is about recognizing those within range of the top-ranked horse are also contenders. Indeed, the top three Prime Power horses won 593 (64.95%) of the races at the meeting.

So... who ya like on the opening day card?

17 Comments

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Plod Boy Phil

Tampa 8th

4 Mister Pippit (9/5) recorded a solid 'vs Flow Win' at Belmont last out. This 8f turf test screams of a 'ZipFest' (fast, contested early splits) which should have closers finishing fast.

04 Dec 2013 11:13 AM
KY VET

To think you can beat this game going on generalized percentages..........is the quickest way to the poor house............really? the top 3 horses that ran the fastest won 64 percent? this is garbage! the horse that ran against better won a good percentage? listen.......just give up the game, if you believe you can beat the races using percentages.........the only way, is to know , that every horse is different, how that horse is going to run on this day.....

04 Dec 2013 2:50 PM
KY VET

an example.....knowing when a horse will fire, is valueable....but knowing when a horse will go off form is also.......aqu.race 7 #merry meadow is 4/5.....all 5 last races would win......can she win? yes.....but i predict she will lose..............

04 Dec 2013 3:14 PM
KY VET

an example.....knowing when a horse will fire, is valueable....but knowing when a horse will go off form is also.......aqu.race 7 #merry meadow is 4/5.....all 5 last races would win......can she win? yes.....but i predict she will lose..............

04 Dec 2013 3:14 PM
KY VET

well.......3/5.....merry meadow beats my 7 to 1 by a head........i lost, 3/5 all out to win......you can be right, and still lose........next.....

04 Dec 2013 3:18 PM
KY VET

tampa race 7 #1 burleys gold...would win if ran his last 2 races....predict he gets beat......5 8 or 10 wins, i hit pick 3.........

04 Dec 2013 3:36 PM
KY VET

yes,,,burleys gold finished off the board.......my smallest pk 3 wins.....point is people, knowing a key contender will go off form, is just as important as knowing a horse will fire....you get good odds.......

04 Dec 2013 3:51 PM
Little Bill

You can be right and still lose. Narcissism at its finest.

04 Dec 2013 4:07 PM
KY VET

haw #4 clontarf w/p race 5

04 Dec 2013 4:19 PM
predict

What determines a "class rating"?

04 Dec 2013 10:40 PM
Pedigree Ann

Class = ability to run well against better competition than the horse is facing today. This could be a good record at today's level when the rest of the field doesn't have such a record, or some success at higher levels (straight 16K claimers vs straight 12,5K claimers). Determining which levels are better than today's races can be tricky, since a starter 12,5K can have a much better field than a 16Kn2L claimer.

05 Dec 2013 9:12 AM
Coldfacts

In the previous Tampa Bay meet I was using the program and handicapping from PPs. I was getting killed as the fancied horses continued to bite the dust.

I decided to change strategy and selected the horses that impressed me in the post parade. It so happened that a 38-1, 9-1 and 15-1 captured my attention. I boxed them with two others in $1 Tri. The 38-1 won and the Tri paid $3,700 for $1.

It is virtually impossible to use traditional means only to handicap horses that ship to TB. Some like the track others do not. Most of them are claimers and not very good ones.

On Wednesday I wagered a $0.50 Tri - all with the 1-2 favorite with all ($45). I really did not like the 1-2 horse because his last race was in January. However, I reluctantly used him.

A 61-1 debutant won the race and the 1-2 finished off the board. The $0.50 Tri paid $3,900. I could have easily used the more appealing 9-1 horse that finished 2nd in addition to the 1-2.

TB is a tough track that requires strength of cash to survive.

05 Dec 2013 10:35 AM
Plod Boy Phil

As good a stretch long two horse battle as you will ever see in the opener at AQ.

06 Dec 2013 12:25 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Brisnet Host-

I believe long time contributor 'predict' had a legit question regarding the foundation of your class rating.

Some participation by the writers of these topics often lead to increased dialogue.  Or not.

Thanks.

06 Dec 2013 12:35 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Tampa R6 10 Cutie's Rose (10-1)- been off for almost three months since the claim following three straight better than looks efforts in turf routes,  including a 'Quick to Zip' moves into an Extreme two races ago and a hopeless chasing position behind an Extreme for Speed four back.

06 Dec 2013 1:48 PM
Little Bill

Class Rating- The link in the article might answer some questions.

Phil- One would think BH would be eager to answer questions about their product.

06 Dec 2013 2:30 PM
Little Bill

Class Rating- The link in the article might answer some questions.

Phil- One would think BH would be eager to answer questions about their product.

06 Dec 2013 3:07 PM

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