The Brisnet.com Ultimate Guide To Winning 1 Million Points On TwinSpires

I posed this question on Twitter, on "At The Races" w/ Steve Byk, and in the Brisnet.com weekend preview, and still have not received a definitive answer: Does this
weekend (it's happening Friday, Saturday, and Sunday) mark the first time that Calder Race Course, Guflstream Park, and Tampa Bay Downs are conducting racing
at the same time?

If anyone knows, drop a comment, or at the very least drop a dime in the box and play a song about New Orleans.

This isn't the forum to debate whether there's too much racing, not enough good racing, or whatever derivative of the "why are Gulfstream and Calder running at the same time?" question you want to explore. We'll leave helping to answer that question to the fine people of The Blood Horse's new staff like Tom Lamarra and Frank Angst.

You'll never hear me complain about a quality racing and/or wagering product. I separate the two because I won't blow smoke up anyone's butt and say that Fairmount Park is top racing, but there were some compelling cards at that track this year, and I enjoyed looking at them on a Tuesday afternoon even though there was plenty of other racing that day and during the week.

This weekend in Florida is no different. The volume of racing there would be an easy target if they were running 6-horse fields of maiden and bottom-level claimers, but that's not the case.

Gulfstream has more than $1-million up for grabs as part of the Claiming Crown, Calder has a trio of Grade 3 races, and Tampa Bay has nearly all two-year-old races, including a stakes for each sex.

At TwinSpires.com, we're happy to celebrate the great racing at the crosstown rivals by providing a 1-million points promotion linking up the 11 stakes at Gulfstream (8 Claiming Crown races) and Calder (3 Grade 3s).

To win your share of 1-million points in the Miami Melee, place a winning $5 win bet on four of the 11 contest. Only one horse per race, so only your first $5 win bet counts toward this promotion, and combination straight wagers such as Win-Place or Win-Place-Show do not count. A qualifying wager is $5 to win. Hit four of those, and you split the pot.

If you bet a horse with a 32.3805% chance of winning in each of the 11 races, then you'll give yourself exactly a 50-50 chance of hitting at least four races, and if those horses each pay 2-to-1 then you'll be ahead of the game before you even cash in on your share of the million points.

The prudent thing, will be to mix in some value along with more likely winners even if underlaid. If you identify four races where the most likely winner has a 50-50 shot of getting it done, then you're 6.25% (15-to-1) to get all four, 25% (3-to-1) to get three, and 37.5% (5-to-3) to get two.

If you only get two of the four, then you have seven races to get the other two. If you take horses with a 25% chance of winning those races, then you're 55.5% to get at least the two you need, which means 20.8125% to get the bonus. If you get three in at 50-50 then you only need one of seven, and the chances of that are 86.65%, which is 21.6625%.

But what if you don't get any right at even money? Then you're left needing four of seven at 3-to-1, which sounds tough, but it's still more likely than a perfect four-for-four at even money with a 7% chance.

So, we have a 6.25% chance you get all four at even money and a 7% chance you get all four at 3-to-1. Then there's a 20.8125% chance that you get two each and a 21.6625% chance that you get 3 at even money and the last one at 3-to-1. Altogether, that's a 55.725% chance of hitting the promotion, which is 11.45% better than playing all fair-value 2-to-1 shots (i.e. the horse's actual odds may be higher or lower, but for the purpose of this exercise we're zeroing in on horses you think have about a 33.33% chance of winning. If a horse is 3-to-1 and you think its chance of winning are 33.3% then that is a prime wagering opportunity).

Thus, my advice is to look for the four most likeliest winners and play them to win. Then with your other seven races take the best bet that is in the $6-$10 range.

And let us know your progress in the comments.

ED'S SPICY SELECTIONS:

I haven't been through all 11 races yet, but for sure two of my "most likely winner" horses are going to be Winiliscious in the Iron Lady Stakes (race 3) and Ribo Bibo in the Express Stakes (race 5) both at Gulfstream.

The Calder treble is trickier because I actually prefer second choices Bad Debt in the Tropical Park Turf Handicap and Sr. Quisqueyano in the Fred W. Hooper Handicap.

GOOD LUCK!



26 Comments

Leave a Comment:

Brontexx

You gotta be kidding to get a share only a share of one million points not dollars I gotta choose four winners outta these 11 races,I didnt bet in the NEW KD futures but I think even that is a better bet than this.Good luck to all those Brisnet customers who think this is a good proposition and most importantly for BRIS think that they can win their share of points with $20 bet.

06 Dec 2013 7:11 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Brontex, if I may -

If one is a Twinspires account holder and has an opinion on at least four races from GP tomorrow,  then that person could make their usual win bets at Twinspires.  If the individual is a $5 win bettor,  then the entire $5 is bet in the Contest.  If one is a $20 win bettor,  then $5 is Contest, and $15 is not.  The $5 is not a donation. If the horse wins,  you cash the full amount of the ticket.  

This promotion does not resembles the November Derby Future Wager in any way. In each case, related or not, the wagering by choice.  

K ?

06 Dec 2013 7:50 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Gulfstream R7 Tiara, 8.5f Turf

6 Deanaalen'skitten (5/2) impressed with a late rush to win last out despite the Speed favoring Flow, aka a 'vs Plod Win'.  The pace scenario may have this field spread out enough to give her room to travel - as I see it, getting stopped or going absurdly wide is all that gets her beat. A single to start the P4.

06 Dec 2013 8:40 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Calder R8 My Charmer

9 Somali Lemonade (5-1) had no excuse when a failure for us in the Cardinal - a mysterious clunker that followed two straight upgraded efforts chasing the wire to wire winner of Speed favoring Flows. Enters with a snappy 4f work -4 days, if you like that sort of thing.  

06 Dec 2013 9:07 PM
Mary Zinke

12/7/13

Gp r5 Never Stop Looking

GP r6 Ghost Is Clear

GP r7 Deanaallen'skitten

GP r8 Deputiformer

Gp r9 Alley Oop Oop

Calder r6 Speaking Of Which

Calder r7 Valid

Calder r8 Naples Bay

Hollywood Starlet: Taste Like Candy, Untapable, Rosalind.

Bayakoa: Fiftyshades, Curvy Cat, Charm The Maker.

07 Dec 2013 2:54 AM
Brontexx

Plod Boy Phil this is a subjective endeavor,I shared my opinion on the proposition of this bet versus the Kentucky Derby future bet and you expressed your opinion on my opinion.I have to inform you that I didnt bet in the 1st future bet and I definitely wouldnt bet to try to win points in this proposition.

07 Dec 2013 8:04 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Hi Mary -

Good to 'see' you - bon chance.

07 Dec 2013 9:51 AM
Mary Zinke

Hi Phil.  I can't do any online voting, but you know I had to take a crack at an Ed challenge.  Otherwise you guys/gals won't feel as comfortable posting your pace figure, energy distribution, upgrade/downgrade, pedigree/dosage, form cycle and "daily ten" picks.  Mine are like who-can-do-it selections. GL to you, and all.  P.S., Almost went with Somali Lemonade, but had a not this time feeling. Might not be a good reason to go against her.

07 Dec 2013 10:50 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Mary-

Yes, I know of your state's 'guns, no internet gambling' sentiments,  but thought perhaps you'd get out to vote on a Saturday.

As for Lemonade,  I've had stronger opinions, especially at just 5-1 in a full, competitive field.  That said,  she'll get a finny fin fin.

07 Dec 2013 11:04 AM
Mary Zinke

GP r3: Princess Malia

GP r4: One Fast Frog

07 Dec 2013 11:11 AM
Pedigree Ann

I have to agree with brontexx - the reward, likely no more than a few thousand points, is not commensurate with the effort and monetary risk involved. I have taken part in this sort of promotion before and despite 'winning', I didn't get that much out of it. Sure, if I had been the *only one* to fulfill the conditions, I would have scored big time, but what are the chances of that? Slim to none.

07 Dec 2013 11:30 AM
Mary Zinke

GPr10: Dominant Jeannes

07 Dec 2013 11:31 AM
Mary Zinke

And the winner is Anti-fun :(

07 Dec 2013 11:49 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Yes, if one does not bet horses, the promotion is not worth the 'time and monetary risk'.  

07 Dec 2013 11:53 AM
Brontexx

Last week I played the Equibase free contest and picked 3 out of 8,not bad but I like those type of races to bet real money and I took 10 to 15 minutes to make my selections.This week the races are part of the Claiming Crown of which type I rarely bet,claiming races that is.I dont ponder over my picks as this is not a mathematical problem and there is more than ONE correct answer at least until the results come in.If I match last weeks win total of 3 I will be very surprised,btw place counts in this contest which I think is very logical because of all the photo finishes in horse racing.

Gulfstream Park 12/7/13 3 1:38 PM Winiliscious

Gulfstream Park 12/7/13 4 2:07 PM Centrique

Gulfstream Park 12/7/13 5 2:36 PM Chelsea Brook

Gulfstream Park 12/7/13 6 3:05 PM Be Brave

Gulfstream Park 12/7/13 7 3:34 PM Deanaallen'skitten

Gulfstream Park 12/7/13 8 4:03 PM Whatthecatdrugin

Gulfstream Park 12/7/13 9 4:33 PM Political Courage

Gulfstream Park 12/7/13 10 5:03 PM Nevada

07 Dec 2013 12:18 PM
Little Bill

CRC Race 6) #7

07 Dec 2013 2:57 PM
Little Bill

Brutal from start to non-finish.

07 Dec 2013 3:10 PM
Mary Zinke

Just got home and checked results. I had good, sucktatious, and too many 2nd places from my picks.  Happy about Speaking Of Which. He had a horrible time in the Hollywood Derby. I think he was my win pick in that race.

07 Dec 2013 9:42 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Mary-

Well done regardless of results - the profit is in the posting,  or something like that.

07 Dec 2013 10:23 PM
Mary Zinke

Thanks, Phil, and good to see your thoughts about the races as well. I didn't know the claiming crown horses very well, but these contests are a good way to practice. The other Big Guy girl surprised me in the Bayakoa.    

07 Dec 2013 11:27 PM
EJXD2

Hey, everyone! Thanks for the thoughts on the weekend promotion, though I have to admit I'm surprised to read concern that the prize is not in line with the cost to play or the time to handicap because in my view there is no cost to play (other than the takeout).

If you make a $5 win bet you either lose or get paid on it. If you win four of those bets then you also get to split 1-million points. You've paid nothing to be eligible for the 1-million points other than the takeout, which you'd have paid anyway even without the TwinSpires promotion.

Anyone cash in?

08 Dec 2013 8:47 PM
Pedigree Ann

EJXD2 - The problem I have with stakes-based contests is that stakes aren't my strength in 'capping; believe it or not, I do better with maiden races, maiden claimers, conditioned claimers, that sort of race. Yet I have gotten suckered into trying to bet the stakes races by the offer of extra points and paid the price.

10 Dec 2013 8:33 AM
Brontexx

I think the lower levels of races that arent claiming which includes maiden claiming are the easiest to predict or handicap if you prefer that word.

MSW NX1 are the lifeblood of the trainers that receive the priciest stock EVERY YEAR.

I like to play any race where I can make my picks without having to RELY on past performances even if I look at them to make sure my memory dosent deceive me.A recent example was the Breeders Cup Classic, I knew barring a bad break the pace scenarios and the horses running styles in my hard drive(memory)which leaves the creative part of my brain to come up with exotic bets.

When you bet in any contest format which picks the exact races to play if you have experience in this game, you might not be able to utilize your strengths and preferences for what you actually wager on with REAL MONEY.

11 Dec 2013 4:48 PM
Brontexx

I think the lower levels of races that arent claiming which includes maiden claiming are the easiest to predict or handicap if you prefer that word.

MSW NX1 are the lifeblood of the trainers that receive the priciest stock EVERY YEAR.

I like to play any race where I can make my picks without having to RELY on past performances even if I look at them to make sure my memory dosent deceive me.A recent example was the Breeders Cup Classic, I knew barring a bad break the pace scenarios and the horses running styles in my hard drive(memory)which leaves the creative part of my brain to come up with exotic bets.

When you bet in any contest format which picks the exact races to play if you have experience in this game, you might not be able to utilize your strengths and preferences for what you actually wager on with REAL MONEY.

11 Dec 2013 4:48 PM
Brontexx

BTW while Im sharing on this blog, I believe making selections in some contests with pre-selected races where their are more than 5000 picking takes a lot of luck, more so than making actual bets.To win a contest with so many entrants you have to be lucky, and you have to pick winning long shots.What you have to decide is which races to play chalk or one of the favorites, and which races to play bombs or longshots.

With so many people playing if a more than 50-1 shot wins I know a handful of people will have played it,so if it happens the ONLY way to have a shot at catching the players of the 50-1(which is capped at 30-1)is to Always play price horses which comes back to my belief that to simplify the process you have to pick races first and then horses.You have to decide if the contest races are mostly favorites or will have several bombs.

11 Dec 2013 5:34 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Woodbine Wednesday Night

R4) 7 Silver Bolt (9/2) set the pace of b-b very Closer favoring Flows - turns back to 7f.

R6) 2 Khulna (15-1) dropped to this Clm8k level last out with a pace setting effort of a very Closer favoring Flow. Turns back to 7f with two 5f works in hand - expecting a return to his off the pace tactics that were so effective a year ago.

11 Dec 2013 7:01 PM

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