The Brisnet.com Ultimate Guide to the Aqueduct Inner

Inner visions, horses not fast

Innervisions, put my money on blast

Lots of racing for handicapping

Lots of horses for losing money

Inner visions here to stay

To, uh oh, those long winter nights

I could go on-especially since the next verse includes the command, "Tell me more; tell me more," but you get the gist: if Keeneland and Kentucky Derby season is spring and Saratoga and Del Mar are summer, and Breeders' Cup prep season is fall then surely the Aqueduct inner meet is winter.

Indeed, many point to the Aqueduct inner meet as a case for less racing; "Why do we need to race year-round in New York?" some ask, but it's hard to argue with handle figures that clearly indicate people want to bet Aqueduct-even in the winter.

Aqueduct is a solid third in average daily handle behind Gulfstream and whichever Southern California track happens to be running (Hollywood now, Santa Anita beginning December 26).

From December 1, 2012, through February 28, 2013, only three tracks (Gulfstream, Santa Anita, and Aqueduct) handled more than $300-million, and the next closest in fourth was Tampa Bay Downs with a little more than $200-million, and only Fair Grounds also had more than $100-million (Oaklawn deserves to be in this last tier with Fair Grounds as well since its average daily handle is more than $2-million/day, but its total handle in the period referenced is less because it does not open until January).

I understand how some people could make the "there's too much racing" argument until they use Aqueduct for support because there's no arguing against those kind of numbers.

Personally, I enjoy playing the inner meet. Horses more easily find their right conditions, and the form holds up. Enough races are competitive that you don't have to wait too long for opportunities but not so competitive (a la Gulfstream and Keeneland) that you feel as if you're stabbing. The pools are big, and the grand slam is fun.

And surprise, surprise... speed is king at the meeting. Using my trusty ALL-Ways database to go back through the last two years of inner visions, any horse with a top last-out Brisnet.com Speed Rating of two or more won 34% of his/her races for a positive ROI of 3%. Make it at least a five-point margin and the win rate balloons to  48% with a +10% ROI.

Routes are nearly as juicy as the two-point threshold yields the same 34% win rate but is only break even in ROI. Going up to a five-point (or more gap) gets you 42% winners and a +8% ROI.

My read on these numbers is that people overvalue form even in the face of superior speed ratings. For whatever reason, people value an 80 earned when winning more than an 80 earned when sixth by many lengths, but for horses who have raced at Saratoga and Belmont fall championship meetings, sixth by many with an 80 is certainly possible. Then they "drop" into a condition at the inner Aqueduct meeting against horses who have won for 75 and you get a square price.

For more information on playing Aqueduct, check out the Aqueduct Notebook at The Handicapper's Edge as well as Daily Selections full-card analysis with best bets, which are available daily for all New York Racing Association races.

What types of angles do you like to play on the Aqueduct inner?



 

21 Comments

Leave a Comment:

Mary Zinke

Pertaining to this blog: Speed, and horses that have won/run well on the inner already.

KY, Sad.  He hates it there!   There is such a thing as googling re-training of off-the-track Thoroughbreds. Whatever. $2k, 1:12+   Sadness.

11 Dec 2013 5:15 PM
KY VET

i know mary.......he has a second, and a third after claim........your guys sent some up there too........i didnt have a farm...............

11 Dec 2013 8:02 PM
KY VET

i really hate to break it to all of you.......this author is trying to say that the inner track is predictable.....horses run to form, because alot of favs win..........speed does good............if any of you have common sense, you might know,,,,,,,that aqu gets 6 horse fields......tampa 10 horse 12 horse fields......how about turfway? 12 horse fields?   in small fields, speed does better......favs win more............................duh!!!!!!    come on man! bring something to the table! percentages?  this is why im a pro.......you all read the wrong things!

11 Dec 2013 8:10 PM
KY VET

i really hate to break it to all of you.......this author is trying to say that the inner track is predictable.....horses run to form, because alot of favs win..........speed does good............if any of you have common sense, you might know,,,,,,,that aqu gets 6 horse fields......tampa 10 horse 12 horse fields......how about turfway? 12 horse fields?   in small fields, speed does better......favs win more............................duh!!!!!!    come on man! bring something to the table! percentages?  this is why im a pro.......you all read the wrong things!

11 Dec 2013 8:10 PM
KY VET

mary...my filly got 2nd this last weekend.......darn......im 9 for 18 now

11 Dec 2013 8:11 PM
Mary Zinke

Here's what I'm saying, KY, If you aren't going to bother to re-home the non-breeders after your fun and they are that old and will only be running at the lowest level, kindly drop them off in my backyard for cujo snacks. We could both avoid the middle man. And yes, all, this is what's known as sarcasm.

11 Dec 2013 8:19 PM
Mary Zinke

Are you going to run that filly in turf sprints?  What do you know about blinkers on or off? I know next to nothing about their use, but noticed that sometimes adding or removing them makes a big, positive, difference. GL w/your filly, KY.

11 Dec 2013 8:32 PM
Pedigree Ann

The key with the Inner has always been whether the horse takes to the Inner. I have made money by betting a) an Inner Track horse who had so-so form on dirt during the fall (prep season) returning to his home and b) a horse who hates the IT returning to real dirt in the spring.

12 Dec 2013 9:47 AM
Coldfacts

I hate what is offered at the Big A during the winter.  Mr. Dominquez will no longer be feasting on the bug boys so the win dividends may just be a little more appealing.

12 Dec 2013 10:19 AM
Drinks from a glass !!

new yorkers love aqueduct...with the beautiful casino and long history of racing     it is a nice meet getting better. I love the paddock prior to racing.

12 Dec 2013 1:32 PM
Drinks from a glass !!

nice track safe surface  great casino beautiful paddock like it all

12 Dec 2013 1:39 PM
Drinks from a glass !!

speaking of aqueduct.. start playing the early pik 5    20 k today      low 15 % take     ...

bombs away   aqueduct  race 6    200 dollar winner    

u can cap tomorrows pik 6 carryover now !

12 Dec 2013 3:01 PM
Drinks from a glass !!

capping the 6 for Friday now..will post it later..time for a drink now.............

12 Dec 2013 5:09 PM
Plod Boy Phil

AQ Friday Race 6

1 Takajo (4-1) returns to sprinting after a maintenance 8f race at Prx.  Colt's prior two at Saratoga were both wrong side runs and better than looks. He'll benefit greatly from a lively, and contested, opening half.

12 Dec 2013 6:56 PM
Drinks from a glass !!

LETS HIT THIS CARRY 6 AT AQUEDUCT...........

CREDENTIALS FIRST...6 TIME PIK 6 WINNER,BEEN GAMBLING SINCE 2005...BEST HIT DAY AFTER BIG BROWN LOST THE BELMONT 6-8-08...

FRIDAYS PIKS           2-8......1-4-9.....4-8....5-7-11AE....7-1.....4-8.....$192 TICKET  I WILL ONLY USE 2 IN 4TH LEG.........

OH YEAH,THE DRINK OF CHOICE...DOGFISH 90 MINUTE POURED IN ICE COLD GLASS  !!!!!  DELICIOUS...........

12 Dec 2013 6:58 PM
Drinks from a glass !!

good point plod boy ...trainer likes to use off layoff 1m to 6 f sprint...see 7-6-13 race at 1m then 6 f 8-1-13.....47 beyer to 73 beyer !

the last work 178/178 leads me to think the horse is just about right at this time...

12 Dec 2013 7:22 PM
Plod Boy Phil

If the work tab is any indicator, things are not as they were in the summer when this guy was working with energy prior to both of his August races.

12 Dec 2013 11:47 PM
Drinks from a glass !!

good luck plod boy .. 5th race doubles will help us with our 1 horse in 6th..

moving from 40 claim to 50 claim . no firesaLE yet

13 Dec 2013 10:00 AM
Drinks from a glass !!

gelded the 1 horse takajo ... i am using your horse ... best of luck ..

13 Dec 2013 12:30 PM
Coldfacts

Drinks from a glass !!,

I hope going forwards you will no longer drink from plastic. I had a couple of dollars on the $200 winner. The field was so bad I did my usual $4 win wager on all the longshots.

The eventual winner had been beaten a combined 66L in its 3 previous starts.

Stay thirsty my friend.

14 Dec 2013 8:22 AM
Drinks from a glass !!

THANKS COLDFACTS   ! ANOTHER CARRY SUNDAY BIG A ...  I FEEL LIKE A HIT SOON ....

WILL CAP LATER  . MAY POST LATER . MY TALL PILSNER FULL OF WARSTEINER MAY TIRE ME ..!!!!  GOOD LUCK BLESS AND GOD BLESS ALL ....

14 Dec 2013 11:52 PM

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