TimeformUS Saturday Plays from Betfair Hollywood Park and Gulfstream

Saturday Betfair Hollywood Park, Race 9, Local Post Time 4:35pm PT
The G1 CashCall Futurity, 1 and 1/16 Miles, 2YO, Synth
By Justin Finch

The Grade 1 Cash Call Futurity will be run against a poignant backdrop as Betfair Hollywood Park approaches its end. And one should add that it approaches it with some style, as this is a very interesting edition of the Cash Call Futurity.

FREE TimeformUS PPs for the CashCall Futurity
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The TimeformUS Pace Projector indicates that Karma King will be on a clear early lead, with Shared Belief, Brother Soldier, and Tap It Rich not far behind. Then it's a small gap back to Electric Eddie, Candy Boy, and the moon-shooting maiden, Even Echo. The others should be considered closers or deep closers in this field.

TimeformUS Pace Projector for the CashCall Futurity
 
The morning line favorite, at 7-2, is Shared Belief, and we expect this gelding to be the solid favorite when the gate opens. He was supremely impressive in his last race, both visually and in terms of numbers, blitzing a Grade 3 field by almost 8 lengths at 7F and earning a TimeformUS speed figure of 101--the best number any horse in this race has ever run. If this race were a sprint, we would not be inclined to expend a lot of energy trying to figure out how to beat Shared Belief. This is one fast horse, the type who can sit and wait and then accelerate in a manner that leaves his rivals' trainers kicking themselves for having entered a race that he was in. But this race is not a sprint. It is a route. And we believe that Shared Belief is likely to be an underlay in the wagering. Yes, he has a solid TimeformUS Pedigree Rating for synthetic routes: an 83. But he is going to be taking money based on a dazzling sprint performance that he may well not be able to duplicate in today's circumstances. This is a strong contender whom we are going to try to beat today.

TimeformUS PPs for Shared Belief

Tap It Rich: He had an extremely difficult trip in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and yet lost by only a little over three lengths, earning a strong speed figure of 93. In that race, he was very difficult to ride for the first half mile or so, and he ended up losing a ton of ground racing wide around both turns. And according to our recent addition--TimeformUS Pace Figures--he was doing all this extra work while running fast fractions: earning pace figures of 104 101 104 for the first three calls. This was a strong, strong performance. Tap It Rich will be making his first start on a synthetic surface today. However, he does have a good Pedigree Rating (an 86) for synthetic routes. His trainer, Bob Baffert, receives Trainer Ratings of 98 with horses making their synthetic debuts, 92 with horses making the third starts of their careers, and 100 when using Mike Smith. But will Tap It Rich again prove impossible to ride? Who knows? But we are encouraged by the fact that Baffert plainly has been doing a lot with this horse in the mornings: giving him long workouts (two at a mile) at varying speeds. Although still a question mark, Tap It Rich should be considered a strong contender today, and he figures to go off at a decent price.

TimeformUS PPs for Tap It Rich
 
Candy Boy: At 15-1 on the morning line, he looks like the most interesting longshot in this race. He earned a speed figure of 89 in his last start, a number that makes him borderline competitive, and, though he didn't have a lot behind him, the style of his victory was quite impressive. We like the way he was able to turn up the heat when asked and record a third-call pace figure of 98.

TimeformUS PPs for Candy Boy
 
Tamarando is as honest as they come and deserves to be used heavily in exotics.


Saturday Betfair Hollywood Park, Race 3, Local Post Time 1:30pm PT
The G2 Hollywood Turf Cup, 1 and 1/2 Miles, 3+, Turf
By Robert Finnegan

Although horseplayers love to complain about short fields in Southern California and elsewhere, the relative lack of traffic issues increases the probability that the best horse will win. Such is the case in the 31st running of the Grade 2 Hollywood Turf Cup, this Saturday, where we have not only a manageable field of six, but also a race contested at 12 stamina-testing furlongs, which should provide all the contenders with a reasonable chance to get a clean run.

TimeformUS PPs for the Hollywood Turf Cup
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This field can be divided into three groups of two.  The first group is the longshots, Irish Surf and Huntsville.  Both have had long campaigns and appear to be unrealistic candidates to make the exacta.  In the case of Irish Surf, if breeding were to decide things, this son of Giant's Causeway and G1 winner Surfside (out of the champion mare Flanders) would win going away.  As is, the colt has finished no better than 7th in his last three starts, and we see no reason for a form reversal back to his top figure of 105 on short rest.  Huntsville is a tad more dangerous, with his tactical speed, but note that he is winless in 14 starts this year, most of them at a lower class level than the race he enters today.  These two are throw-outs.

The second group to focus on is the lightly raced four-year-olds, Arctic North and Segway, both of whom have won two of five career starts, and both of whom are stretching out to 12 furlongs for the first time in their careers.  In the case of Arctic North, this is a horse who didn't debut until the age of four.  After defeating Segway two races back, Arctic North shipped across the country to contest the Grade 3 Red Smith at Aqueduct, where he finished a non-threatening sixth but posted a career-best 106 figure.  The TimeformUS pace figures indicate he was forced to run much faster early in this race, relative to the distance, than he had in previous efforts.  This left him unable to produce the necessary kick with the race on the line.  Now he stretches out an additional furlong, and, based on his Pedigree Rating of 74, we have doubts about his desire to go this far.

Segway, on the other hand, possesses a terrific 96 Pedigree Rating for this race.  Unlike Arctic North, Segway debuted as a three-year-old, a race in which he was bet down to 5-1 in a 10-horse-field and won impressively.  After a pair of middling efforts, Segway went to the sidelines for almost a year.  His return race was far more impressive than it looks on paper. He was blocked for much of the stretch and didn't find clear running until Arctic North had sailed by on the outside.  Indeed, in his subsequent start, on October 27th, he wired the field while setting tepid fractions and matched his career top of 97.  Segway will need to run the best race of his career on Saturday, but we think he is set to do just that.  His trainer, Richard Mandella, has a strong 92 Trainer Rating with this type of rest between starts. Moreover, Segway is making his third start off the layoff, a category in which Mandella gets a Trainer Rating of 83. The Pace Projector puts Segway on the lead in a race expected to favor horses with early speed.  For these reasons, we prefer him over Arctic North.

TimeformUS PPs for Segway

The third group of horses is the battle-hardened veterans Temeraine and Lucayan.  Lucayan is a Group One winner in Europe and has produced the fastest figure of any of the contenders in the race (a 113).  However, Lucayan's form has been spotty in the US since that big performance at a mile on May 25th.  His last race can be excused, as it was run in a virtual bog at Woodbine.  Prior to that, he produced some strong late efforts in hitting the board in races ranging from 8 to 11 furlongs.  He also receives the services of Joel Rosario for this race and figures to offer value for those who believe in his chances.  Alas, we are not in this group.  Although his Pedigree Rating is a respectable 85, this colt was considered a miler in Europe, and his best performances have come at a mile.  

Temeraine is the much more logical candidate to come from off the pace and make the exacta.  Any of Temeraine's last three performances (106-108 figures) would put him in the mix in the Hollywood Turf Cup.  His off-the-board performances this year have been against superior competition, and yet he still ran well in those efforts.  He has given every indication that he wants this trip, and it's hard to see him finishing worse than 2nd in this race.   However, he is no win-machine, and at his likely short odds, we will play the race with the hope that Segway can hold him off late.

TimeformUS PPs for Temeraine

Wagering Strategy:  Segway to win at 5-2 or higher.  Exacta box of Segway and Temeraine (60% Segway on top, 40% Temeraine on top).


Saturday Gulfstream Park, Race 9, Local Post Time 4:33pm ET
The G3 Sugar Swirl Stakes, 6F, F&M, 3+, Dirt
By Douglas Salvatore

A field of six is assembled for the Sugar Swirl, and the pace should be very quick and contested.

TimeformUS PPs for the Sugar Swirl Stakes
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TimeformUS Pace Projector for the Sugar Swirl StakesThe 2/1 morning line favorite is R Free Roll, and she is presumably the speed of the speed, though she might have a hard time crossing and clearing against this field.

R Free Roll owns the field's best spotlight figure, a 110, and she gets a rider change to our favorite rider, Paco Lopez, who is winning at 33% so far at this Gulfstream Park meet.

Paco Lopez is very aggressive, but he's also a brilliant judge of pace and tactics on front-end horses, and his presence aboard R Free Roll leaves us unwilling to get cute and play against her.

R Free Roll PPs

The longest shot on the morning line, Twice Told Tale, is the only runner in this field who has ever had any success while racing off the early pace, but she unfortunately lacks the speed figures necessary to make her our top selection.

Still, Twice Told Tale should enjoy an absolute dream trip, and she is sure to mop up the pace casualties. Look for her to pick up her exhausted and spent rivals in the stretch and add some needed value to the exotics.

TimeformUS PPs for Twice Told Tale

Betting Strategy:  Straight Exacta of R Free Roll over Twice Told Tale. Trifecta key: R Free Roll first, All in the second slot, and Twice Told Tale third.

90 Comments

Leave a Comment:

Mary Zinke

Cash Call:  The two Big Guys, 2 and 6. Tamarando is my favorite. Speed figures say Shared Belief. But, I'm me, so, Tamarando for the win. Then the Sadler #4, and Baffert's #5. Agree--like the blinkers off for Karma King, the 9.

Native Diver. Three Big Guys!   Would love to see Sermon, #8, take this. He's running and looking so well lately. Solid looking. Happy horse. Blueskies, #1, can do this if he does not get into a speed battle early with the sprinter-milers. And Ghost,#9, can definitely close fast enough. So, The Big Guy should be in another winner's circle photo. Hopefully three checks. After them, I'll take Fire With Fire, #2.

13 Dec 2013 2:01 PM
Mary Zinke

Hollywood Turf Cup: Lucayan and the Giant's Causeway/Slew "twins", 6,2,3.

13 Dec 2013 2:11 PM
Kevin

Shared Belief at anything over 2-1.  Like Tap It Rich underneath.  Expecting Kobe's Back to be forgotten in the wagering and can improve 2d back after a couple 6 furlong drills.

13 Dec 2013 8:29 PM
Mary Zinke

GPr9: Heart Stealer.

14 Dec 2013 11:07 AM
Plod Boy Phil

re Cashcall

I'll take an opposing view of Tap It Rich.  He was a posted downgrade off his very much Flow aided MSW win going into the BCJ.  His race in the Cup was not that different than the eventually winner,  New Year's Day,  with the exception of ground loss - ground loss in my opinion that in no way overcame the advantages the Flow presented.  Of course,  one must consider the role the removal of Lasix, and it's return today,  will play.  

Regardless, 'off the pace' BCJ runners Tap It Rich and Bondholder are both downgrades in an upgrade-free race.

14 Dec 2013 11:36 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Mary -

If you are voting today, you may want to consider making your late Daily Double at Gulfstream:

3 Heart Stealer -8 Noble Doss.

It's the only DD I'll be buying.

14 Dec 2013 11:53 AM
Coldfacts

Pioneerof The Nile finished 5th in the BCJ and returned to win the 2008 Cashcall. Could Tap It Rich do same despite his downgrade in an upgrade free race? His trainer has won the Cashcall 6 times.

An improving 2YO plus a trainer with a strangle hold on a race, equals winner.

14 Dec 2013 2:50 PM
Coldfacts

The Hollywood Prevue has been contested on the synthetic track at BHF 7 times. Two winners have subsequently contested the CashCall Futurity with the following results:

2007 – Massive Drama (1:21.48); finished 3rd in the CashCall

2012 - Really Mr. Greely (1:22.84) finished 9thth in the CashCall

Shared Belief time of 1:22.17 in the 2013 Hollywood Prevue is consistent with those recorded in previous years. He is going to be an overwhelming favorite in the 2013 renewal of the CashCall but not a certainty to win.

It appears 7F and 1 1/16F are world apart for 2YOs.

14 Dec 2013 2:51 PM
Brontexx

To make up for contests on here Plod Boy Phil Ill go with 5 R Free Roll 8 Noble Doss in the late double at Gulfstream.

14 Dec 2013 2:56 PM
Coldfacts

Massive Drama 2007 winning time of 1:21.48 is the fastest recorded in the Hollywood Prevue contested on synthetic. Finishing 2nd to him was Into Mischief who returned to turn the tables on him in the CashCall.

Shared belief winning time of 1:22.17 could have been faster. Can Kobe’s Back turn the tables if a pace duels develop?

It could be an exacta & tri featuring three fast closing grays i.e., Tap It Rich, Poker Player & Kobe’s Back.

14 Dec 2013 3:05 PM
Brontexx

In the Cash Call Ill go with 13 Kobes Back to turn the tables on Shared Belief

14 Dec 2013 4:14 PM
Plod Boy Phil

mismatch, that

14 Dec 2013 5:26 PM
Brontexx

Late DD at Gulfstream was a Dud paid 7.50 per $1 bet with 78 possible mathematical combinations.Exacta of 3-5 in the first  leg paid 6.80 per $1 bet with 30 possible mathematical combinations.Both favorites won the DD while the  1st and 2nd choices came in order in the Sugar Swirl.

14 Dec 2013 6:23 PM
Plod Boy Phil

re: Cash Call

1 Electric Eddie a likely 'tandem rule' play for those laying in wait for the public's desire to overlook certain runners while over-valuing others from the same event. Watch the board for odds discrepancy between EE and Tamarando,  as they were just 3+ lengths apart.  

Sometimes,  it's just that simple.

14 Dec 2013 6:31 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Mary -

The Big Guy.....lol

14 Dec 2013 6:41 PM
Little Bill

Rankhasprivileges is a Shared Belief, I'm just sayin'.....

14 Dec 2013 6:57 PM
Mary Zinke

I know, Phil. Backwards from my order, but Big Guy Happiness. I'm still smiling. Total whee moment.  Real scream fest. Nice that Blueskies got the win.  Guess who was last year's winner's workmate before finding a happier(imo) home? Now the younger boys need to do like the big boys.

14 Dec 2013 7:00 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Fugue-

Surprised Coldfacts is not on the son of Einstein.

14 Dec 2013 7:11 PM
Mary Zinke

BHPr7 result backwards for the first three posted somewhere else. I was closer here.

14 Dec 2013 7:15 PM
Brontexx

Since I saw the odds here is a bet using the less than even money favorites with closers and chasers 6-13-125-125 60 cents worth and you can cover any number of ways to recoup how ever much you bet in 10 cent increments the favorite or the others in the money one that I left out which you could include is the 9 the possible pace setter to key him in 3rd or 4th good luck all.

14 Dec 2013 7:34 PM
Plod Boy Phil

re: Shared Belief

He certainly ran to his looks.

14 Dec 2013 7:43 PM
Little Bill

Phil, that is surprising. I can appreciate his posts for the historical value. From a handicapping stand point I often liken them to ESPN SportsCenter as they are the king of insignificant stats.

" Last night was the first time in MLB that a pitcher threw a no hitter for eight innings on a Tuesday......."

14 Dec 2013 7:59 PM
Kevin

Shared Belief was very impressive.  Only question is can he do that on dirt.  Have a small Pool 1 future bet on him (23-1 I think).  Seemed to be a very competitive field.  Shocked there were no Derby points available.  

14 Dec 2013 8:04 PM
Mary Zinke

#freetheillinoisderby, Kevin.  About the lack of points for the final Hollywood Park Cash Call.

14 Dec 2013 8:27 PM
KY VET

only coldcuts, would post picks against shared belief........the horse he picked to win the derby...............yes....this race with nobody in it, he still picked against.......why? he is a contrarian...........he will pick against any horse....even one he likes......just to be contrarian......of course like always.......loser........

15 Dec 2013 12:13 AM
KY VET

relax.......with the derby talk people.........he just lost the derby....................shared belief= no chance.................

15 Dec 2013 12:15 AM
predict

Mighty impressive win by Shared Belief, the way he accelerated at the top of the stretch says he is a horse that will have to reckoned with if he makes it to the Kentucky Derby. His win looked almost effortless, and his time was very respectable.

Horses that win this race often go on to win a Triple Crown race, to say that the horse that won today has no chance in the Derby, shows some great insight that I seem to lack, would love it if the all knowing could share their reasons with us of lesser knowledge.

Anyone know why #10 Poker Player was scatched?

15 Dec 2013 3:08 AM
Brontexx

One of my beliefs which is NOT shared by anyone on this blog(how ever many or few there REALLY ARE) is that a colt unraced at two will finally shatter the old wives tale that YOU MUST RACE AT 2 TO WIN.

15 Dec 2013 8:43 AM
Brontexx

Im glad that the resident COMIC STRIP WRITER has stopped in for another installment of his self-deprecating humor.

15 Dec 2013 9:10 AM
Coldfacts

Below is an extract from a previous post that speaks for itself.

"The KY Derby Future pool #1contains some impressive horses. Interestingly, the Mr. Prospector sire line accounts for 10 of the 24. The A P Indy sire line accounts for 7 and with Honor Code this line probably has the Derby favorite.

Two geldings have won the Derby since 1929 i.e., Funny Cide and Mine That Bird. Interestingly, both have been from The Mr. Prospector sire line. Shared Belief a son of Candy Ride and another gelding rom the Mr. P sire line has been very impressive in two starts. He was produced from a Storm Cat mare and appears to have the requisites speed and stamina to cover 10F in the average Derby time of 2:02.

The speedy 2010 SA Derby winner Sidney’s Candy was sire by Candy Ride and was also out of a Storm Cat mare. He finished unplaced in the Derby. Sidney’s Candy was a need to lead colt but Shared Belief is not.

In 2011 and 2012 Storm Cat mares produced two serious Derby contenders i.e., Dialed In and Bodermiester. I believe Shared Belief will be another serious Derby contender from a Storm Cat mare and he will be my wager in Derby Pool #1."

I have been accused of selecting Shared Belief for the Derby and then betting against him in the CashCall.

I was unaware that the CashCall is the Derby. Shared Belief closed at either 24-1 or 27-1 in the KDFP #1 so I am locked in at a good price.

Highlighting several horses in a race suggest that one is looking for value in the exotics. This obviously is something simple minds find hard to comprehend.

Read more on BloodHorse.com: cs.bloodhorse.com/.../timeformus-weekend-plays-from-delta-downs-churchill-and-betfair-hollywood-park.aspx

15 Dec 2013 10:32 AM
Coldfacts

Brontexx,

I am not one that believes that a horse has to race at two for it to be a potential Derby winner. Curlin and Bodimiester never raced as 2YOs and they finished 3rd and 2nd in their respective Derbies. Bernardini never raced as a 2YO and in his 4th start he won the Preakness contested 2 weeks after the Derby.

There is no proof that horses whose careers start at three are less likely to win the Derby.

The great Lammtarra made one start as a 2YO and 364 days later in his debut as a 3YO won the Epsom Derby in  either a NSR or NTR. Did his one start as a 2YO make a difference?

His manner of victory suggest that he could have debuted in the race and win.

15 Dec 2013 10:49 AM
Coldfacts

Who determines what facts are insignificant? Historic data is just historic data. It can be applied as one sees fit. If it is deemed irrelevant by one it can be deemed relevant by another.

Shared belief was very impressive in the CashCall. what bit of insignificant facts can be cited to diminish his chances of winning the Derby.

Well her goes. His sire Candy Ride falls into the  overbred category. He bred 172 mares in 2010. No stallion that has bred over 150 mares in a season has been associated with a Derby winner. The horses produced from big books are prone to breaking down and developing mysterious structural issue.

He has a wide gait and he is yet to start on dirt. The CashCall is not known for producing many KD winners.

I am aware that what has not happened in years can occur in a day.

Tap It Rich finished last at 5-2 after some great works before the race. Was his performance compromised by the synthetic surface.  Is Shared Belief a synthetic freak?

Bobby's Kitten ran a monster race in the BCJ Turf. He is a quality colt. If he takes to synthetic, can Share Belief blow by him the way he has done all that have faced him to date?

More questions than answers as usual.

15 Dec 2013 11:33 AM
Brontexx

I realize that by posting this unshared belief that I open the floor for arguments.The reason no Derby winner has been unraced at two is because there are very few colts that attempt to even point to the Kentucky Derby if they didnt race at two.Bodemeister and Curlin were trained by very accomplished persons who wouldnt be questioned by their trainees owners if they wanted to run in the KD as an unraced 2yo colt.

Inotherwords I believe once it happens it will happen again and again once more attempt it.

15 Dec 2013 11:44 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Woodbine R6

3 Bear's Taurus (6-1) recorded an ultra-impressive 'vs Plod Win' when closing through an Extreme for Speed to win from far back last out - tries Alw1x foes again.

9 Rackam (20-1) made classic 'Quick to Zip' move into an Extreme for Closers.

15 Dec 2013 1:18 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Gulfstream R9

10 Istrue impressed in her debut - tricky 'vs Zip Win' read on this one. Her daddy was a favorite of ours.  

15 Dec 2013 4:27 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Hollywood R9

8 Geldautomat (6-1) ran huge consider in his lone turf start consider the very speed favoring nature of that race.  Looks to capitalize on likely potential early duel between the 2, and the upgraded 10 Closet E, who will be the exacta play.

15 Dec 2013 4:54 PM
THE KEYMASTER

Phil - Ouch! I see you had another tough day none of your horses even hit the board and there was only one in double digit odds.

15 Dec 2013 8:57 PM
Mary Zinke

Coldfacts, What if the sire bred more than your optimal amount of mares, but the colt, gelding, or filly in question was one of that stallion's first offspring that year?  I mean does that stuff wear out? I would think that the one that bred so many would just be happier. Maybe need a horse chiropractor and extra oats.  

15 Dec 2013 10:17 PM
Mary Zinke

Here's how it works to pick a loser in a 20 horse field.  You have 19 out of 20 chances to be right. If that one out of the 20 somehow wins, you may be able to say that was due to specific circumstances or weak competition.  Pick the winner. Much, much harder.  Anyway, for now, on one of those Derby 2014 polls, I picked "other" as the winner. I do hope my pal has a Derby entry, of course.

15 Dec 2013 10:33 PM
Coldfacts

When Mr. Haskin compiled his 1st Derby Dozen for 2013, I highlighted the horses that were from big books cover by their respective sires.

I cited that those from overbred stallions were unlikely to make the Derby field and if any did none  would be the winner.

At the top of the Haskin Derby Dozen was the undefeated multiple stakes winner violence. His sire bred 185 mares in 2009. The 2010 foal crop became the 3YO crop of 2013. violence broke down after the FOY and was retire.

The only horse from a stallion that bred over 150 mares to make the field was Normandy Invasion. His sire Tapit bred over 160 mare in 2009. He finished 4th and was taken out of training shortly after. He returned recently.

They is no scientific evidence that supports my conclusion regarding g the correlation of overbred stallions and their Derby record. However, both Giants Causeway

He f

16 Dec 2013 9:30 AM
Coldfacts

When Mr. Haskin compiled his 1st Derby Dozen for 2013, I highlighted the horses that were from big books cover by their respective sires.

I cited that those from overbred stallions were unlikely to make the Derby field and if any did none  would be the winner.

At the top of the Haskin Derby Dozen was the undefeated multiple stakes winner violence. His sire bred 185 mares in 2009. The 2010 foal crop became the 3YO crop of 2013. violence broke down after the FOY and was retire.

The only horse from a stallion that bred over 150 mares to make the Derby field was Normandy Invasion. His sire Tapit bred over 160 mare in 2009. He finished 4th and was taken out of training shortly after. He returned recently.

They is no scientific evidence that supports my conclusion regarding the correlation of overbred stallions and their Derby record. However, both Giant's Causeway and Medaglia D'Oro bred 185 mare in 2009 and neither had a Derby starter.

16 Dec 2013 9:32 AM
Coldfacts

After Shared Belief’s destruction of the CasCall field many feel he is #1 to win the Eclipse for Champion 2YO male.

Since the inauguration of the Breeder Cup, champion 2YOs have mostly been the winners of the Breeder Cup Juveniles races. I am aware of one instance where the winner of the BCJ did not lift the Eclipse for champion 2YO, there might be other but I cannot imagine many.

Lookin At Lucky was voted Champion 2YO despite being defeated by Vale Of York in the BCJ. At least he entered the championship and raced against the best available 2YO males at the time.

I firmly believed that Vale OF York should have been voted for Champion 2YO. The six times winner and undefeated Lookin At Lucky had every chance to win and was out finished by Vale OF York.

When New Year Bay entered the BCJ he had a MSW victory to his credit. He exited the race with a workman like victory. Finishing behind him were the winners of four G1 races. Was he expected to run away and hide from such a strong field? Unlikely! Could Shared Belief have destroyed the BCJ field in a similar fashion to the CashCall field? Not in a million years!

Some may use the finishing positions of BCJ 4th & 5th place finishers Tap It Rich and Bond Holder as a measure. In the CashCall Tap It Rich finished last but one and Bond Holder finished 4th. Both were badly beaten. Does this mean that Share Belief would have destroyed New Year’s Day Havana and Strong Mandate? Absolutely not!

New Year’s Day won the bigger race defeating a field containing four G1 winners and any attempt to deny him the Eclipse would be a travesty.

16 Dec 2013 10:23 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Keymaster-

No argument here.

Dreadful.

16 Dec 2013 10:45 AM
Mary Zinke

Not that this question will be answered, but here goes.  Is the way I phrase questions the reason that they so extremely rarely get answered?  This is not the first time I have had this problem. Also, people think I am being funny when I am being serious, or they get all ticked off when I am trying to be funny. Anyway, I do enjoy others' speech-making because it is something to read.

16 Dec 2013 8:45 PM
Pedigree Ann

Coldfacts -

Easy Goer was champion 2yo, even though he was defeated in the BC Juvie by Is It True; EG had beaten him twice previously. In '93 Brocco won the BC Juvie but Dehere was the champion; Brocco had only 1 stakes win on his home track, while Dehere had 4 stakes wins, 2 G1. In '87 Success Express won the Juvie, but Forty Niner was champion; FN had 4 stakes wins, 2G1, 2G2, while SE had only the 1 graded win. '95 Juvie to Unbridled's Song, championship to Maria's Mon: MM had 3 graded wins, two G1, US had only the 1 graded win.

These champions had 6 or more races on the year and had demonstrated first-rate form repeatedly (not just once), so that if they missed the Juvie or ran close without winning, they were not penalized. If no 2yo had shown that kind of consistency, the Juvie winner becomes champion by default - Anees, Rhythm, etc. And, of course, if the winner of the Juvie already had several graded wins to his credit, he was an obvious choice - Chief's Crown, Boston Harbor, Gilded Time, etc.

In these days of many top 2yos having only 2 or 3 races going into the Juvie, they have no established form to fall back on if they fail - Lookin at Lucky was a major exception to that rule and the standard "it's only one race of many" rule applied.

17 Dec 2013 10:09 AM
Coldfacts

Pedigree Ann,

At the time of compiling my last post I gathered that were more examples of winner of the BCJ not secureing the eclipse. However, I was just too lazy to research them.

I cannot disagree with the points you have raised as they are valid and indisputable.

Despite the impressive performances deliver by Shared Belief I could not in good faith cast a vote for him for Champion 2YO.

New Year's Day took on four G1 winners in the biggest race for his age group and soundly defeated them. He accomplished same without the race day medication Lasix.

There is no bigger task that a 2YO MSW winner can undertake against winners. The fact that this colt was successful supersedes what every other 2YO has achieved.

If his BCJ does not highlight his quality then a review of his loosing effort on debut should give an indication.

I recognized that Shared Belief has two graded stakes races to his credit

17 Dec 2013 11:31 AM
Coldfacts

Mary,

Kindly accept my sincere apology for not directly addressing your question. I saw my ID in your post but did not pay attention to the question. I have many lessons from ignoring the fairer gender.

Your question is very interesting. Many times breeders like to visit stallions early in the season i.e., early jumps. It is assumed that early in a season a stallion would be at its most potent point to effectively transmit its genes. This is a reasonable assumption.

It also reasonably assumed that nearing the end of a season, stallions are likely to be spent forces and the quality of their seamen might be compromised due to the stress of serving 100 or mares earlier in the season.

Most of the overbred stallions serve mares 2 and sometime 3 times per day. By the end of each week they are likely to cover 20 mares. Their stresses begin very early in the season and continue throughout.

I consider an early jump to be more advantageous when considering a stallion that is usually overbred each year.

These are just opinions and should not be regarded as colt facts. That stated, I continue to await a Derby winner form one of the top ten overbred stallions associated with each 3YO crop.

17 Dec 2013 11:55 AM
Rusty Weisner

Brontexx,

I agree with that.  The sample size is too small but will get bigger.  Meanwhile, 2-yo form is almost becoming a negative predictor of Derby form.

17 Dec 2013 12:22 PM
Mary Zinke

Coldfacts, Thank you for your reply, but this: "Mary,

Kindly accept my sincere apology for not directly addressing your question. I saw my ID in your post but did not pay attention to the question. I have many lessons from ignoring the fairer gender." almost beats out Mr.Aloof for horribleness :(

I'll be back for the next Ed blog.  

17 Dec 2013 1:03 PM
Little Bill

It seems another lesson has been learned, well,......taught.

17 Dec 2013 2:26 PM
Brontexx

Eventhough I believe that if more trainers planned to begin running 3yos in the year they turn three and depending on how they progress point to the KD there arent many young trainers that get enough colts in their barn each year to do this and help increase the population of non 2yo raced that are planning on a Derby campaign after winning a couple of races as 3yos.We have to face reality the trainers arent getting any younger in fact it seems that the ones that point for the triple crown every year has dwindled and are getting older.Horses do not maintain their form unless they are only raced once a month and not overtrained.If they started racing in January and only worked out before age 3 they have 4 months to prepare.That is more than enough time to keep a racehorse at top form in the game of 2013.Last year Verazano tried it but if any one checks this he might of been one of the ONLY colts attempting this out of the entire population of 3yos.I think the owners nowadays are mostly in it for money and the purchase of live prospects is very expensive so they would rather get a quicker return on their investment by racing at two years of age.The trainers are old school and hardly any of them can convince the owners to be patient and wait and run their colts as 3yos not 2yos,or maybe they themselves dont believe that a colt can win the Kentucky Derby unless they race as 2yos.

BTW the race this year was helpful for closers and very detrimental to front runners.Not only does the colt need to be very good he has to get the right track and pace.There just arent any dominant horses in general who can dominate at 2 and 3.

17 Dec 2013 6:38 PM
Brontexx

Eventhough I believe that if more trainers planned to begin running 3yos in the year they turn three there would be many but there arent.Starting a colt at three andDepending on how they progress point to the KD there arent many young trainers that get enough colts in their barn each year to do this and help increase the population of non 2yo raced that are planning on a Derby campaign after winning a couple of races as 3yos.We have to face reality the trainers arent getting any younger in fact it seems that the ones that point for the triple crown every year has dwindled and are getting older.Horses do not maintain their form unless they are only raced once a month and not overtrained.If they started racing in January and only worked out before age 3 they have 4 months to prepare.That is more than enough time to keep a racehorse at top form in the game of 2013.Last year Verazano tried it but if any one checks this he might of been one of the ONLY colts attempting this out of the entire population of 3yos.I think the owners nowadays are mostly in it for money and the purchase of live prospects is very expensive so they would rather get a quicker return on their investment by racing at two years of age.The trainers are old school and hardly any of them can convince the owners to be patient and wait and run their colts as 3yos not 2yos,or maybe they themselves dont believe that a colt can win the Kentucky Derby unless they race as 2yos.

BTW the race this year was helpful for closers and very detrimental to front runners.Not only does the colt need to be very good he has to get the right track and pace.There just arent any dominant horses in general who can dominate at 2 and 3.

17 Dec 2013 6:42 PM
Coldfacts

Pedigree Ann,

I feel compelled to make some additional points in support of my contention that Vale Of York should have been voted the 2009 Champion 2YO.

The colt shipped from arcos the pond and from a different time zone. He was racing on a synthetic track for the 1st time. His Jockey was the little known camel rider convert from Dubai with very little international experience. It was the colt's 1st attempt at 1 1/16F. His résumé did not reflect a graded stakes win. Last but not least, he was trapped on the rails at the top of the stretch and had to check off horses for his winning run.

The unbeaten Looking At Lucky had all the advantages. Included in his 6 victory preceding the BCJ was the (G1)8.5F Norfolk Stakes.

Only a champion could have overcome those overwhelming odds and inflect the first defeat on the best 2YO in the US.

It was a disgrace.

Very few will agree but VOY displayed the heart of a champion despite the overwhelming odds.

18 Dec 2013 8:37 AM
Pedigree Ann

Coldfacts - and I have always been of the opinion that one race decides nothing. ANYTHING can and does happen in one race. The track can come up like concrete and be wildly speed-favoring, just as a sealed wet track at Belmont can be. A closer, like Rock of Gibraltar, can be stopped cold by a horse breaking done in front of him. A speed horse can stumble out of the gate. A horse pulling clear can jump a shadow in the last 16th and be caught.

Championship awards are for the whole season, which many people seem to have forgotten. Should Arcangues have been named champion older horse and Horse of the Year, based on one race? I think not.

18 Dec 2013 9:03 AM
Coldfacts

Fugue for Tinhorns,

It appears you enjoy when I am either ridiculed or reprimanded. I sincerely hope you have not been taking lessons from the Kentucky Clown.

I am prepare to engage any contributor on issues relating to thoroughbreds and the thoroughbred industry.

Like many I am not going to be correct all the time. However, I always try to support my opinions with what I consider to be pertinent fact be they historic or otherwise.

I recognize that this Blog is about unlocking winners. Winners of what? There are winners races and winners of awards. The tile of the blog makes it open ended despite the lean towards race winners.

18 Dec 2013 12:18 PM
Little Bill

Aq 3) I'm going to take a shot with Balderdash. Thinking he can transfer his closing style to dirt. Name game Balderdash/Deceived.

18 Dec 2013 1:15 PM
Little Bill

Coldfacts, It's not as personal as you think. I would have posted my comment regardless of who. It was more about the opportunity. Let's not forget it was your post that garnered the smack down.  

18 Dec 2013 1:34 PM
KY VET

Class is in...................i forget the name of that horse.........that won the derby, by freaking in december.........what was his name?..........damn! i can't remember his name!..........................keep looking....youre not gonna find one in the last decades............there have been many, that ran great in dec.........but didnt last............do i have to tell you why?...................yes, street sense won the derby, and i won 5 grand.....that was because early nov is not dec......and i knew trainer was a guy that wouldnt have him sharp, and have only 2 preps........kinda like shug will train his 3 yr old..................shared belief isnt a threat.......................................

18 Dec 2013 2:35 PM
Mary Zinke

KY, Why do you bother the Whos down in Whoville? I have to giggle at the brattiness. I never grew up either, just got older.  

18 Dec 2013 11:45 PM
Mary Zinke

Whatever about you saying he won't be a threat, KY.  I hope he is my friend's Derby horse.  Did you all see The Big Guy starring in this video?  www.youtube.com/watch

18 Dec 2013 11:48 PM
Mary Zinke

Another thing is, Shared Belief is only supposed to have two preps. Also, I don't know what you won on other Derbies. You didn't spend it on me, so I don't know if I should sign up for your class or not.

19 Dec 2013 12:01 AM
Coldfacts

It is grossly incorrect to assume that a horse in training cannot maintain its form over an extended period. A sub-par performance by a horse does not necessary mean a loss of form. There are many things that can cause sub-par performances.

A fit, sound and happy horse will always perform to the best of its ability baring misfortune in a race. One of the biggest impact on a horse’s repeat performance is the post-race effects of the race day medication Lasix.

If a horse that races on Lasix is not properly treated for the post-race effects of the drug, it will invariably not perform consistently although it appears big, strong and fit. This inconsistency drives the conclusion  that the animal has gone off form. This fuels the belief that horses do not maintain their form for extended period.

Time is a horse’s best friend. If given the requisite time to recover from races a fit sound and happy horse will always perform.

I often wonder if many trainers are aware of the post-race routines that have to be observed for horses that race on this powerful diuretic. They appear to be more focused on its performance enhancing effect and not its resulting side effects.

Extract from ‘The Vets Corner’

“During the normal process of racing, a horse will lose a great amount of water, and a horse on Lasix will lose twice that of a normal horse. Therefore, it is imperative that the trainer endeavor to replace the horse's vital fluids. Besides having the veterinarian give the horse an electrolyte jug intravenously, a trainer will also often place electrolyte powder in the horse's water bucket or in his feed on a daily basis.”

19 Dec 2013 9:04 AM
KY VET

yes mary.....saw him on tv that day.....thought of you.......thats a very nice horse............if they wanted the derby, the shouldnt have run him that day.......they did the right thing, went for the money........now what? on the farm for 2 months?  no, too late for that........good news, they only want 2 preps.............front left leg paddles when he runs.......not the best thing...........best thing for him is how bad the other 2yr olds are.........weak division.....beyond weak............

19 Dec 2013 4:45 PM
KY VET

random races...pen race 2   w/p #8

19 Dec 2013 6:31 PM
Brontexx

Here is a link for the blog and also the self-proclaimed god that is more of a clown than a god, you can secretly open the link also we all know the truth anyway.

horseplayersassociation.org/decissue.pdf

19 Dec 2013 6:45 PM
KY VET

-40.......20w/p pen race 3 #3 run paddy run....6-1

19 Dec 2013 6:57 PM
Brontexx

Coldfacts I believe that there are peaks in form and time is important(refer to page 9 of the link I provided)Like humans athletes, horses in training will

improve in fitness until they reach a peak ("top") after

which the body needs time to recover and will regress

("bounce") until enough time has passed that it can start.

I also believe what the Europeans say about American horses good blood bad bone.Overtraining over a hard dirt track cant help. Euros mostly train and run on the turf which IMO is a more natural surface to run on for Thoroughbreds or any horse for that matter unless their immediate ancestors come from a place like a desert or somewhere similar where they encounter hard dirt surfaces.

19 Dec 2013 7:03 PM
Brontexx

Coldfacts I believe that there are peaks in form and time is important(refer to page 9 of the link I provided)Like humans athletes, horses in training will

improve in fitness until they reach a peak ("top") after

which the body needs time to recover and will regress

("bounce") until enough time has passed that it can start.

I also believe what the Europeans say about American horses good blood bad bone.Overtraining over a hard dirt track cant help. Euros mostly train and run on the turf which IMO is a more natural surface to run on for Thoroughbreds or any horse for that matter unless their immediate ancestors come from a place like a desert or somewhere similar where they encounter hard dirt surfaces.

19 Dec 2013 7:04 PM
KY VET

tp race 3 20wp #4

19 Dec 2013 7:11 PM
KY VET

i guess my bets lower the odds at these small tracks...awesome lion wins! knocked down to 7/2.......im 2/4 50%....not bad for a pro huh?  +87

19 Dec 2013 7:35 PM
KY VET

turfway race 4 #7 el hombre 20wp

19 Dec 2013 7:40 PM
KY VET

2for 5.....+47........turfway race 5 20wp #3 sluiceway

19 Dec 2013 8:06 PM
KY VET

2 for 6......+7........pen race 6 20wp#4 smoke cloud

19 Dec 2013 8:18 PM
KY VET

nosed for 2nd....2/7.....-33.......turfway race 6 #1a dubaele 20wp

19 Dec 2013 8:38 PM
KY VET

dubaele wins! 3 for 8 +55.......pen race 7......20wp #3 devine flash

19 Dec 2013 8:52 PM
KY VET

+55...race 7 pen....20wp #3 devine flash

19 Dec 2013 8:53 PM
KY VET

3/9...+15.....turfway race 7 20wp#4 honey c

19 Dec 2013 9:10 PM
KY VET

-25...turfway....longshot #1 extract  20wp

19 Dec 2013 9:35 PM
KY VET

-65....pen race 9 20wp #10 wise ranger

19 Dec 2013 9:43 PM
KY VET

turfway race 9 #8 common law

19 Dec 2013 10:05 PM
KY VET

damn! 2nd a head at 7 to 1......-93

19 Dec 2013 10:13 PM
KY VET

delta downs 20wp #4 smeauxkinthelane

19 Dec 2013 10:17 PM
KY VET

ct race 8 #8 dorothy's aurora

19 Dec 2013 10:24 PM
KY VET

2nd! -91   delta 20wp race 9 #5 spit and whittle

19 Dec 2013 10:31 PM
KY VET

correction...-107

19 Dec 2013 10:36 PM
KY VET

correction...-97

19 Dec 2013 10:37 PM
Mary Zinke

I read about the paddling tonight, in a blog about Shared Belief's pedigree.  I just cheer the horses on, vote on some. His team will know if he needs to rest the leg(s), KY.  

I'll try to keep up with your daily ten--remember I said Friday, but I may sleep late, like until 2 Eastern.  GL, get your money back. I might take a crack at BHP late P4.  

20 Dec 2013 1:54 AM
Mary Zinke

Okay, late P4, BHP, 12/20/13: 4/1,2,3/1,2,10/10,14.

20 Dec 2013 3:43 PM
Mary Zinke

My BHP 12/13 r5 single had a crapatatious break.

20 Dec 2013 5:40 PM
Mary Zinke

What? BHP 12/20, that is.  Still tired.

20 Dec 2013 5:40 PM

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