TimeformUS Stakes Plays

Saturday Gulfstream Park, Race 9, Local Post Time 4:33pm EST
The G3 Mr. Prospector Stakes, 6F, 3YO & up, Dirt
By Douglas Salvatore

Star Harbor (5/2 morning line) is a rare case of a "quad figure standout." In his last four starts, all of his speed figures are 110 or better. No other horse in this field has a single speed figure that fast in any of his last four starts.



Not only does Star Harbor possess an absolutely monstrous speed figure advantage, but the TimeformUS Pace Projector also indicates he should be on an uncontested early lead in a race that favors horses positioned on or near the early lead. 



The Race Ratings indicate that Star Harbor faced better competition in each of his last two starts. He is reunited with jockey Paco Lopez, and Lopez and trainer Bobby Dibona have a 97 rating together.

Almost every relevant factor points at Star Harbor. If there is a knock to be found anywhere, it is that this 5-year-old horse with 20 career starts under his belt has never run on such short rest (20 days) in his entire career, which will be a concern to bounce enthusiasts. However, Star Harbor has fired off of similar layoffs before: one a 22-day layoff, the other a 23-day layoff.

We see absolutely no good reason to oppose Star Harbor. He is a strong selection.

For exotic wagering purposes, #6 Singanothersong (8/1 morning line) goes third off the layoff for trainer Ronald Pellegrini, a man who has a 94 Trainer Rating at Gulfstream Park.  Singanothersong projects a perfect stalking trip and is in light at 114 pounds. His speed figures are very competitive with everyone except Star Harbor. He deserves strong underneath consideration in the exotics.

Betting Strategy: Win bet on Star Harbor. Use Singanothersong underneath in a straight exacta.

Thursday Santa Anita, Race 6, Local Post Time 2:47pm PT
The G1 La Brea Stakes, 7F, 3YO Fillies, Dirt
By Robert Finnegan

The TimeformUS Pace Projector suggests that the pace will have a strong influence on the Grade 1 La Brea--with 8-5 morning line favorite Sweet Lulu being shown on a clear early lead in a race labelled as favoring early speed. Her nearest early pursuer, according to the Pace Projector, will be My Happy Face, who is shown in a stalking position at the opening quarter as she shortens up to 7F after forcing the pace in two routes.

TimeformUS Pace Projector for the La Brea

TimeformUS PPs for the La Brea Stakes
A Special Offer on Unlimited PPs for Bloodhorse Readers  

If the Pace Projector proves correct, the other five fillies will find themselves at a pace disadvantage in this race, and we have serious questions as to whether any of them has the talent to beat these two fillies when at such a disadvantage. Indeed, beating them on even terms would be no small task.
 
Let's look at the field in post position order:
 
Sweet Lulu (8-5): Has a win and a second from three Grade 1 attempts. Ran an inefficient race in the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint, as one can see by inspecting her TFUS pace figures from that race: 124 115 107 98. It seems likely that the pace of today's race will allow her to avoid expending so much of her energy early. The race she exits earned a Race Rating of 115, which is 6 points stronger than the second-best in the field. She should enjoy the lower class altitude of today's race. Her last-out speed figure, a 105, is the best in this field. Her trainer, Jerry Hollendorfer, is fresh off a memorable Hollywood Park meet. Rafael Bejarano is back aboad today, after the  Julien Leparoux interregnum. Bejarano is 2 for 2 on this filly. Hollendorfer gets a Trainer Rating of 100 (the maximum) when using Bejarano, an 86 in dirt stakes, and a 91 when entering stakes races off rest similar to today's. Sweet Lulu brings a boatload of positives into this race. We consider her the most likely winner. But at what price?
 
TimeformUS PPs for Sweet Lulu

Heir Kitty (9-2): Has run one speed figure (a 102) that would threaten in here, and that was in her last start--in which she stalked in the clear against male allowance company. That was 27 days ago. The Pace Projector shows her at the back of the pack at the opening 1/4 today, in a race favoring early speed. We don't like her chances of doing much better than hitting the bottom of the trifecta today.
 
Miss Lucky Sevens (10-1): Makes her dirt debut today off a Pedigree Rating of only 61 for dirt sprints. Her best speed figure is a 97. We aren't enamored of her chances today.
 
Executiveprivilege (4-1): Enters off a freshening for Bob Baffert, who gets a 91 rating off of comparable freshenings. Has a top speed figure of 102, the repeat of which would figure to play well in here. Bejarano gets off and blinkers go back on. Has a puncher's chance, since Baffert is always capable of getting big efforts off freshenings and his filly has a big effort to get back to, but looks like an underlay to us at 4-1.
 
Journey On (12-1): If she wins, we lose.
 
My Happy Face (7-2): Has the best lifetime speed figure of any horse in the field: the 116 she ran at Saratoga in a 9F race five months ago. Lost to Sweet Lulu by a neck in the Grade 1 Test four months ago, a race in which Sweet Lulu survived a speed duel (see pace figures color-coded in red) and My Happy Face could not quite overcome a very wide trip. Trainer Pete Miller is a supremely formidable speed trainer whose horses often produce more early speed than the past performances would suggest, and he is superb with route-to-sprint moves (rating of 98). If, as seems likely, My Happy Face is able to secure a trip in which she is stalking Sweet Lulu from second place, we don't believe any of her opponents will be able to pass her, which makes her a strong contender and, at a minimum, a good bet to finish in the exacta. At her morning line odds, My Happy Face looks like an overlay to us.

TimeformUS PPs
 
Madame Cactus (9-2): Lifetime-top figure of 98 came over this surface when she broke her maiden. Won the Grade 2 Raven Run last time, over Keeneland Poly, after making an extremely wide run around the turn. Got a friendly pace setup in that race. Today's pace does not figure to be as accomodating. Useable underneath.

 

Thursday Santa Anita, Race 8, Local Post Time 3:52pm PT
The G1 Malibu Stakes, 7F, 3YO, Dirt
By Robert Finnegan

Boxing Day at Santa Anita features a loaded field of almost-four-year-old colts squaring off in the $300,000 Grade 1 Malibu Stakes.

FREE TimeformUS PPs for the Malibu Stakes
Special PP Offer 

Flashback, the 7-2 morning line favorite, has burned a lot of money in his last three starts, finishing second each time at odds of even money, 11-10, and 3-10.  However, these were all strong efforts, and the colt has never been worse than second in his five career starts, often racing against top company.  In his most recent start, off a 210-day layoff, he had a slow break and was parked very wide at the top of the lane, yet he still ran on nicely to lose a close decision to Zeewat (9-2 ML).  Despite losing, Flashback looked like the superior animal, and Baffert has a 94 trainer rating with horses returning on this type of rest.  Prior to going on the shelf in early spring, Flashback posted 114 and 117 figures.  His last race was a 109, which should provide a perfect tee-up for today’s effort.  He also proved again, as he did in his crushing maiden victory, that he can come from off the pace in a one-turn race, which should suit him quite well in the Malibu.

TimeformUS PPs

On that note, it is interesting that the Pace Projector does not predict a fast pace, as there are a number of loose-cannon types in the field who should make this race very difficult to steal on the front end.  What the Pace Projector does show is that the pace should be contested by Zee Bros (10-1), Bakken (6-1) and Distinctiv Passion (6-1), all of whom will be breaking from outside post positions.  Heir of Storm (6-1) and Our Double Play (15-1) also like to contest the early pace.  It sure feels like a closer’s race on paper.

Pace Projector for the Malibu Stakes

Flashback offers good value in the win pool at his 7-2 morning line.  We will temper our enthusiasm in the likely event that this colt gets bet down to 2-1.  However, since this is a big field with a number of interesting contenders, Flashback is certain to go to post at longer odds than in his recent races .  It’s possible he’s simply too good for these.

In terms of the others, good luck to those playing the exotics.  Virtually any of them can hit the board. So I will take only a moderate stab at the exacta.  Holy Lute (12-1) has a back number (a 109 in the Indiana Derby) that makes him an upset candidate.  Shakin It Up (15-1)  was a very fast two year old (ran a 112) and is coming in off a long layoff.  He offers value at the morning line but is likely to be bet down.  Demonic (12-1) sports a Pedigree Rating of 100 (the maximum) for dirt sprints and has upside.  There’s nothing wrong with Zeewat other than the odds.

The Wager:  Flashback to win at 5-2+.  Flashback in exacta boxes with Holy Lute, Shakin It Up, and Demonic.

99 Comments

Leave a Comment:

Rusty Weisner

Flashback didn't look good in his return, missing the break and blowing the turn.

26 Dec 2013 12:44 PM
Plod Boy Phil

re: The Malibu

7 Central Banker (4-1) impressed us with a strong finish behind the wire to wire winner of a near Extreme Race for Speed in the T'Giving Hdcp. For a bit of perspective, only a very small percentage of 6f sprints at the Fair Grounds are more difficult on off the pace types.  Considering that his Kings Bishop was a Flow aided failure, the upgraded 'vs Plod' run last out marks significant improvement.

Win or lose,  this great race has been a favorite of mine for decades.  

26 Dec 2013 12:52 PM
Mary Zinke

Finally.

SAr5: 4

SAr6: 1,then 6,4,7.

SAr7: 8

SAr8: 5,8,12,2.

Expanded version at previous blog.  

26 Dec 2013 2:19 PM
Mary Zinke

Nice close second by TBG's Atta Boy Pete, one of the friendliest horses in the barn, in the 5th, to my pick, Luckarack.

26 Dec 2013 5:21 PM
Mary Zinke

$12.20 winner.  

26 Dec 2013 5:23 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Mary -

Nicely done.

26 Dec 2013 5:34 PM
Mary Zinke

Thanks, Phil. Now Sweet Lulu must win!   EP also looks like a winner, no matter what The Brain said.

26 Dec 2013 5:46 PM
Mary Zinke

Boo!

26 Dec 2013 5:52 PM
Mary Zinke

Journey On=race ruiner.

26 Dec 2013 5:54 PM
Mary Zinke

Brain did not like Miss Kitty in the 6th.

26 Dec 2013 5:55 PM
KY VET

hey mary....my filly goes tomorrow....what ya think?.....and fun malibu!!!! boom went the dynamite.....all that speed.....had to dutch 2 that i thought would be closing.....50wpbanker 40w shakin it up.......perfect result....cashed for 1005.....no exacta!!!!! thought banker was in....but best result came in..............

26 Dec 2013 10:25 PM
Mary Zinke

Post the ticket photo KY.  Seriously with with the past posting?  Not like you bought us all dinner, so we can be happy for you.   GL to your filly. I'll stalk down the race.  Did you post about the Malibu somewhere BEFORE the race?  Not that I don't trust you.  I gotta say that Zeewat can close.  

26 Dec 2013 11:24 PM
Mary Zinke

KY, Who are you worried about? 5 and 10? What about the 6? idk, I took at look at the pps, but I couldn't begin to guess. Your girl has a very good chance to win. Looks like she'll be near the lead with enough late pace to hold off most of what may be coming.  

27 Dec 2013 1:19 AM
Coldfacts

In a previous post I highlighted that the following horses contained in the 1st Derby Future Pool, were unlikely to make the Derby field as they were product of overbred stallions.

Bobby’s Kitten – Kittens Joy - bred 173 mares

Coup de Grace – Tapit bred 169 mares

Havana – Dunkirk bred 186 mares

New Year’s Day – Street Cry bred 159 mares

Noble Moon – Malibu Moon bred 172 mares

Pablo Del Monte – Giants Causeway bred 217 mares

Ride On Curlin – Curlin bred 150 mares

Shared Belief  - Candy Ride bred 172 mares

Tap It Rich  - Tapit bred 169 mares

From my observations horses produced from big books are more prone to breaking down and the development of mysterious structural issues.

Well New Year Day has suffered an injury and has been retired. Tap It Rich has not seen a bend he does not dislike and continues to run out in his races. His fate is pending and one can only hope the great Speedy Bob can work some magic.

I will continue to watch those on the above list in the hope that my assessment is grossly incorrect.

A very conservative figure for stallions to breed per year is a maximum of 100 mares and even that figures is stressful for these giant semen labs on four legs.

27 Dec 2013 7:35 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Friday Gulfstream Race 3

3 Urquia (4-1) recorded a 'Neutral or Better Win' last out for us following an impressive closing run behind an Extreme for Speed in October.  The Dec 8 win is in itself worthy of an upgrade as she ran though a modestly Speed favoring Flow to win from a deep closers position.

27 Dec 2013 12:31 PM
Mary Zinke

Anyone read enough about horse dicks lately?

27 Dec 2013 1:01 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Mary -

Good thing the theory doesn't hold true in the humans.  

Any picks today?  I've already set the bar on the floor.

27 Dec 2013 3:05 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Friday FG Late P3

8) 3 Clement Rock (8-1) was 'vs Flow' in his last behind a w-w winner on Kee's main. Drops off time are not great bankroll builders,  but there are more ups than downs for me.  

* Note that Clement Rock won a stake race on 'soft' ground at Belmont in 2011.  He won the Charley Barley on 'good' ground earlier that year. He's not been on anything but firm ground,  until today.

27 Dec 2013 4:28 PM
Mary Zinke

Just watching calracing with a pal, but she had to go to work. I like the 1 in SA r4. Hunch pick is the 2--first time gelding, now lighter, right Coldfacts?

27 Dec 2013 4:59 PM
Mary Zinke

9, down the hill, r5

2,5,3 r6

5 in the finale

27 Dec 2013 5:22 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Friday FG Late DD...

9) 6 Son of a Preacher (9/2) made his turf debut last out behind the forwardly placed winner of a Speed favoring Flow.  Returns to the dirt on which he won his debut sprinting at CD with no help.

27 Dec 2013 5:34 PM
Mary Zinke

Street Icon was rolling. Gave him a scream. "Almost"  Good race!

27 Dec 2013 6:05 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Mary -

Cool trifecta at $33.

27 Dec 2013 6:16 PM
Mary Zinke

Your girl was interfered with at the start, from what I saw in the head-on, KY.

27 Dec 2013 6:29 PM
Mary Zinke

I don't like being wrong about a hill race, though. Race 5 pick came in fifth.  Tri in r6 was free for the taking. Thanks, Phil. You know I wanted The Big Guy's gelding to win.  Was fun to watch him roll. Okay, now Gryder wants a win after that second in r7. My 5 bet down to fav in the finale.

27 Dec 2013 6:47 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Mary -

I need the 3 or the 7 to beat you in the last for a one third share $1 P3.....

27 Dec 2013 7:01 PM
Mary Zinke

Big thing 5 shoulda won that. Didn't try hard enough.

27 Dec 2013 7:08 PM
Plod Boy Phil

MZ -

I'm just playing off those that come in with the scores on big wagers long after the cool down is over.

Until next time....

27 Dec 2013 7:13 PM
Mary Zinke

Hey Phil, my old pal Common Sense ran in the Clement Rock race. Must have missed him in my virtual stable e-mails.

I suppose the bragging without posting can get a pass on past merit this once. No idea why KY doesn't join in on most stakes days and take embarrassing or praise-worthy shots like the rest of us.

27 Dec 2013 7:49 PM
Plod Boy Phil

It's ridiculous that more readers,  there have to be more than just the few of us,  don't fire away. There is Zero at stake,  unless of course one (that's for you) is associated with a handicapping product.

Good times.

27 Dec 2013 8:17 PM
KY VET

yea mary.....neck loss.......cant win them all........lookin for another to claim.......can't claim from your guys......and a few others.....so its tough to find one............i will not post any fun races after i get back from the track........but that was fun............................

27 Dec 2013 9:02 PM
Kevin

Playing the GP Pick 6 on Saturday.  Not expecting to be the lone winner, just playing for the fun of it.

4,7/3,10,12/1,2,7,8/3,9,10,11,14,16/3/3,4,11,13

27 Dec 2013 10:27 PM
Mary Zinke

I would use Fort Loudon, Kevin.  GL w/your P6.  

27 Dec 2013 10:52 PM
Kevin

Mary, Ft Loudon is the last horse I dropped to make the ticket affordable.  Had to make a stand somewhere.  

28 Dec 2013 9:31 AM
Kevin

Don't do this often, but the best bet of the weekend is actually parlay in the Dallas/Eagles game.  Eagles -6.5 and the over.

28 Dec 2013 10:06 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Kevin -

Once was too often, thanks.

We have a downgrade on Ft. Loudon.

Good luck.

28 Dec 2013 10:14 AM
Coldfacts

Star Harbor defeated Jackson Bend who returned from retirement and has 35 starts under his belt by 1/2L and he is not to be opposed. Star Harbor has made 6 starts for the year and based on his PP’s he is not the soundest of animals. He has never won two races in the same month. How can this horse be the 5/2 ML favorite?

The 6YO Black Diamond Cat with his 51 stats is the 3-1. He has not won two races in the same month and he returns in 14 days. This is a 6YO with significant mile travelled. What exactly am I missing?

The 6YO Apriority has one victory from his last 10 stars. Can he be trusted to deliver consecutive wins? He gets a vote of no confidence but might be the best of the 6YOs as enters off full rest.

Singanothersong was given almost 6 months off after his 3rd showing in the Big Drama. This 3YO returned to finish 2nd in a 6F Optional Claim completed in 1:10 2/5. A month later he won 6F Optional Claim in 1:08 3/5. He enters the Mr. Prospector with almost 6 weeks rest. A young and rapidly improving 3YO with 114lbs against over raced and unsound 6YOs has a ML of 8-1. He might be up in class but against his grandparents. With further improvements this 3YO should win handily.

28 Dec 2013 10:40 AM
Coldfacts

Rusty Weisner,

Do not be surprised, Flashback is the product of a stallion that has bred an average of 160 to 170 mares in the last 4 years.

There is another big imposing gray in Speedy Bob's barn by the name Tai It Rich. He breaks slowly and runs wide on the turns as well. Who is his sire?

Both Verrazano and Flashback were classified as freaks after a couple of impressive maiden wins. I could not see the rational for the classification as both colts appeared good but not exceptional.

28 Dec 2013 10:53 AM
Coldfacts

Fort Loudon will be making his 3rd start in December and is an automatic toss for me. Travelling Man as was to be expected has suffered the ill effects of his High Octane Barn and now appears to be spent force. His lever is probably malfunctioning. He wins without me.

28 Dec 2013 11:15 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Gulfstream Race 9 G3 Mr P

7 Apiority (4-1) rates the most likely winner from my seat following his solid 'vs Flow Win' from off the pace.  In this case,  the severity of the Flow more than offset a track that was playing very kind to closers. Six year old horse a live repeat threat, as that race signals a return to form,  not the end of it.  Pace scenario should suit.

28 Dec 2013 11:43 AM
Mary Zinke

Okay, I'll be the Fort Loudon supporter.  Been wondering why he hasn't gotten a few wins lately, so let's see if he disappoints or not today. Over Apriority and Travelin Man.

28 Dec 2013 3:21 PM
Mary Zinke

Daytona: Ain't No Other,then Unbridled's Note, Handsome Mike, Chips All In.

28 Dec 2013 3:26 PM
Mary Zinke

2,3,4 in the Eddie Logan.

28 Dec 2013 3:32 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Nicely done to those that had lofty expectations of the Mr P winner.

28 Dec 2013 5:11 PM
Mary Zinke

Good pick, Coldfacts, in GP r9.

29 Dec 2013 1:52 AM
Pedigree Ann

Sorry I haven't added to the discussion lately. I have been fighting a sinus infection since the Kee Nov Sale; hope THIS antibiotic does it. Thinking has been difficult. Did I tell you I bought a new mare? Her name is American Heiress, by Quiet American - I call her Milly (ref: Henry James' The Wings of the Dove). She is old (18) but doesn't look it; was a minor SW when racing, has foaled solid winners, no black type. Due in March to (yuk) Notional.

29 Dec 2013 8:56 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Since it's the last full day of racing across the country in 2013, here's the first of several today.

AQ  R5  9 Photon (5/2) chased the w-w winner of an Extreme for Speed in his last.  

29 Dec 2013 12:04 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Rusty -

Cause and effect aside,  your observation on Flashback was spot on.

29 Dec 2013 12:05 PM
Drinks from a glass !!

good day players............

plod boy like ur pick photon in 5th ...aqueduct

will be there new years day for my nyra calendars

look for me in paddock . will be wearing my chargers jersey...

muddy in new York and all day...

29 Dec 2013 1:18 PM
-Keelerman

Pedigree Ann;

Congratulations on your new mare! I'd love to hear which stallions you're considering for her.

29 Dec 2013 2:20 PM
-Keelerman

Pedigree Ann;

Congratulations on your new mare! I'd love to hear which stallions you're considering for her.

29 Dec 2013 2:21 PM
-Keelerman

Pedigree Ann;

Congratulations on your new mare! I'd love to hear which stallions you're considering for her in 2014.

29 Dec 2013 2:25 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Fair Grounds  R3  7 Turbalo (3-1) recorded a moderate 'vs Plod Win' in running through a Speed favoring CFR 5 from 'mid-pack last out.  

29 Dec 2013 2:27 PM
Plod Boy Phil

FG  R8  10 Billy Two Hats has been against modest speed flows in two straight following a nice 'vs Flow Win' three back in his return to dirt.

29 Dec 2013 4:37 PM
derbygal

S.A. R4 6-1-5 Ex. Box

29 Dec 2013 4:56 PM
derbygal

R4 key was 6 just couldn't get longer odds underneath the 6.

29 Dec 2013 5:12 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Santa Anita  R8  1 Becky Lou is the only horse to have a name that rhythms with the trainer's name.  Well that and the fact she was a neutral Flow winner following her upgraded effort in the Speed favoring Torry Pines.

29 Dec 2013 5:54 PM
derbygal

SA R6 like the 1,2,3.

29 Dec 2013 5:59 PM
derbygal

S.A. R8 9-2-3-7 Ex Box

29 Dec 2013 6:12 PM
derbygal

S.A. R8 WPS 9

29 Dec 2013 6:16 PM
derbygal

S.A. Add the 5 to the R8 Ex. Box

29 Dec 2013 6:27 PM
KY VET

shared belief.......go for the money, not the derby...........runs jan 11th.............smart decision...............

29 Dec 2013 7:59 PM
KY VET

shared belief.......go for the money, not the derby...........runs jan 11th.............smart decision...............

29 Dec 2013 7:59 PM
Drinks from a glass !!

plod boy     thanks for photon ... good price...

Tuesday 3 day carry    pik 6 mandatory payout....

if u cap post your thoughts....thanks.

29 Dec 2013 8:28 PM
Drinks from a glass !!

good pik plod boy    nice price      

3 day carry tues aqueduct..mandatory payout...

if you cap . post your thoughts on the pik 6 ....

coldfacts ... we cashed well with singanothersong....

29 Dec 2013 8:40 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Thanks.

If I cap...that's funny.

29 Dec 2013 8:43 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Mary -

Are there any good New Years Day Stake races for an impromptu contest ?  Or, it could be a personal top 2 at any t'bred track on the 1st.

29 Dec 2013 8:47 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Drinks -

I'most interested in Frazil turning the tables on Moments Notiz in the 5th at AQ on Tuesday.

29 Dec 2013 8:55 PM
Drinks from a glass !!

tuesday card rough from the jump  race 4-9 as tough a card you may see at aqueduct....frazil c.velasquez rides the other linda rice horse quick money....tb rice rides frazil the new bug 17% in 2013 281 mounts...moments notiz on 5 days rest 4th race in 40 days ! I am looking for closer   plenty of speed signed on ....

29 Dec 2013 11:50 PM
Mary Zinke

Phil, How about the P5 at Santa Anita on January 1st? Races 2(Fury), 3,5--lots of familiar names. 8.5f dirt claiming and aocs.

Stakes race that day at SA is r8, The Blue Norther. There's a BG filly in that race, but I don't know her. Kinda like my hunch pick Famous Alice.

Jeranimo runs on Saturday.

Have a KY style past post, the tri in the Frankel, posted at another website.

30 Dec 2013 1:03 AM
Mary Zinke

P.S., 1:13+ He hates that track.  

30 Dec 2013 1:05 AM
Coldfacts

Drinks from a glass !!

You did not mention 'In the Beat'

You have done me the greatest dishonor seeing that you are aware that I have been providing some conditioning advise to our good friend.

I have mixed feelings about the chances of the Street Sense 4YO as I think he needed another week to be fully competitive.

Reports have been positive. The animal is consuming all its feed; shows no visible signs of unsoundness; appear to be happy and his energy appears to be back to an acceptable level.

The gelding's ML of 50-1 makes him a automatic exotic play.

Stay thirsty my friend.

30 Dec 2013 9:45 AM
Coldfacts

Mary,

Your comments regarding my selection in the Mr. Prospector have been noted.

It was not a difficult choice. His age, speed figures plus expected improvement from two races after a lengthy lay off, made him a good gamble

30 Dec 2013 9:51 AM
Pedigree Ann

Keelerman - Milly's $300K earner was by Glitterman; her next best two ($100K+ earners) were by Glitterman and his son Champali. Neither of these two are around Ky anymore, so I am going to have to get more creative, probably keying on all the good Florida Tartan/Genter stuff in Quiet American. One wild thought I have had is Algorithms - not only was his sire Bernardini out of a Quiet American mare, his damsire Cryptoclearance is another Fappiano son. And the price is right. But still a lot of questions about Algorithms - no foals on the ground and only 3 races lifetime. Like Count Lehndorff, I want some nifty conformation and athleticism to back up a good pedigree match; his calculus was physical scored 3x  versus ped 1x.

30 Dec 2013 9:57 AM
Coldfacts

Since the closure of 1st KDFP in November that featured 24 betting interests, have there been any noteworthy 2YOs that have emerged? There must be many that have not been highlighted.

One that has been added to my short list is Mr. Speaker. I must confess I was not aware of this colt prior to his Diana Beach victory. During the loading of the field, I caught sight of a colt that was physically impressive. There was no prior handicapping of the race and consequently time did not permit for the checking of pedigree, jockey, past performances or trainer.

The aforementioned information is important in any wagering decision, but my ignorance to same did not deter my decision to rushed to the cashier and place a win wager. I didn’t know the colt’s name at the time and just focused on his number while he worked his way through the field from 2nd to last to first.

I have revisited his PPs and although they reflect all  starts have on turf, his action is not consistent with that of a turf horse. His pedigree certainly does not signal turf. He may however have big hooves. In all seriousness, this is fine looking horse with an excellent Derby pedigree. The fact that Churchill Downs favors turf types is a plus if he is a dual surface horse.

This colt was sired by Pulpit and out of an Unbridled mare. Has the Pulpit/Unbridled combination been seen before? Oh Yes! This combination produced a serious but unsound Derby contender by the name Tapit.  Despite his unsoundness he won the Wood and finished 9th in the Derby.

Is there further Derby history associated with Mr. Speaker pedigree? Oh yes!

Pulpit sired Ice Box who was runner up in the 2010 Derby. Unbridled sire Derby, Preakness and Belmont winners Grindstone, Red Bullet and Empire Maker. How has Unbridled done as a broodmare sire? Well, there is Tapit, (Wood); Shackleford (Preakness); Dennis Of Cork (3rd In Derby/2nd Belmont); Orb (1st FL Derby/KD)

If the sire and dam sire are not enough, then the dam should be the top dressing on the Derby credentials of Mr. Speaker. His dam is a lightly raced daughter of the undefeated HOF inductee, Personal Ensign.

WOW!

30 Dec 2013 12:46 PM
Mary Zinke

Here's a contest idea, Phil.  We pick the loser out of a 20 horse field, months in advance. #itgetsoldrightaway  

30 Dec 2013 2:43 PM
Brontexx

Pardon me but how do we know that:The animal is consuming all its feed; excerpt from one of multiple posts made by the same.

30 Dec 2013 2:51 PM
Coldfacts

Brontexx,

"Pardon me but how do we know that: The animal is consuming all its feed"

"Reports have been positive. The animal is consuming all its feed."

OK. Feed as a noun is an act of feeding.

The manner in which the above was phrased is understood by most if not all in the industry even in its grammatically incorrect form.  

To be politically correct the animal is reported to be consuming all that its being fed.

The information was provided as part of a wider report. There was no need for verification as the supplier of the report had no reason to lie.

"excerpt from one of multiple posts made by the same."

At the time of this submission, the Blog reflects 77 comments. Two contributors accounted for 58% of the comments. Neither contributor summited the comment your reference.

You can be specific in your future references.

30 Dec 2013 4:32 PM
Mary Zinke

1/3/14 GP r9, the 7, Ichiban.

Coldfacts, maybe like me, inquiring minds want to know if you know the horse, "in person". I want to know all kinds of nosy stuff, although I haven't been into stalking lately. Too busy.

30 Dec 2013 5:14 PM
ROBBIEJOE25

Hey VET your filly ran a good 3rd the other day how did she come back? Why are you so down on Shared Belief?

30 Dec 2013 6:27 PM
Mary Zinke

? If another knows your secret identity, then I feel that what we have is no longer special, lol.

30 Dec 2013 6:56 PM
Drinks from a glass !!

coldfacts ... really ..........

.in the beat        .......?  conditioner awful in all categories....an o fer  !!! and ten days rest?

30 Dec 2013 9:47 PM
KY VET

i,m not down on shared belief......not a derby horse.....they are running again......jan......hollendolfer smart man.....doing the right thing.....going for the money now......weak division in cali......you cant turn him out now....too late......might as well run.......cant last till the derby.....no way, no how!  

30 Dec 2013 10:01 PM
Drinks from a glass !!

ok .here it is . final day carry pik 6 aqueduct....

2-4-5  ..  11-7-8..   7-10-4.....  3-6  ... 3...   3  ..

bombs away in last 2 races....20-1 and 30-1..!!!

first 3 legs are a -b--c piks  4th leg A piks ..

cheap tik figuring the cost now..about 30 bucks or less...

31 Dec 2013 12:42 AM
Drinks from a glass !!

ok .here it is . final day carry pik 6 aqueduct....

2-4-5  ..  11-7-8..   7-10-4.....  3-6  ... 3...   3  ..

bombs away in last 2 races....20-1 and 30-1..!!!

first 3 legs are a -b--c piks  4th leg A piks ..

cheap tik figuring the cost now..about 30 bucks or less...

31 Dec 2013 12:43 AM
Drinks from a glass !!

ok . so ya want to know what I am drinking now...?

90 minute dogfish from a chilled pilsner..happy new year all ....

31 Dec 2013 1:15 AM
Coldfacts

Drinks from a glass !!

"90 minute dogfish"

Is there such a concoction? It there is, you Americans are crazy.

By the assigned name the above concoction is obviously bad for your health. Try the one below as it provides energy and is less stressful on the liver.

(3) bottles of our favorite dark brew from Ireland; (1) Cup Oates;(1) Cup unsalted peanuts;(2) Eggs;(1)Tin sweetened condensed milk (2) Tea spoon vanilla.

Ingredients should be poured into blender in order above and purified.

Concoction best consumed cool and from a glass.

31 Dec 2013 10:18 AM
Brontexx

Coldfacts Wider reports? I hope you dont make wagering decisions based on hersey.The only way to really know the physical condition of any animal is if you see him every day and you yourself are involved in its care.Reporters do have their own agendas one of which is writing what is politically correct so that they will get continuous access to whatever barn is in question.

31 Dec 2013 10:24 AM
Coldfacts

Drinks from a glass !!

conditioner awful in all categories....an o fer  !!! and ten days rest?

The trainer's stats are horrible! If the good book is true, the world was made in 7 days and we had 10 days to turn around the gelding. Three weeks would have been ideal but I believe the gelding should run an improved race without actually winning.

Ten days of good keep and care can work wonders if there are no undetected structural or blood issues.

If you are into exotics a 50-1 shot is one you want to make the board. Recently a 99-1 shot won. The animal was beaten a combined 66L in its four previous starts.

Strange thing can happen in this game.

The ML favorite is returning off 4 days rest.

Do not stay thirsty my friend as you can drink from a glass while staying in the beat.

31 Dec 2013 10:52 AM
Mary Zinke

"Crazy Americans" call that concoction of yours syrup of ipecac, Coldfacts.

31 Dec 2013 11:24 AM
Mary Zinke

Good luck in that AQU r5, Coldfacts. If Head Heart Hoof runs, I'll take him to win.

31 Dec 2013 12:00 PM
Plod Boy Phil

2014 New Years Day Handicapping Contest

CR1) Gulfstream,  R8  Voodoo Dancer  4yo f 7.5f T

CR2) Gulfstream,  R9  GP Derby  3yo  8f

CR3) Aqueduct,   R8  The Interborough  F&M  6f

CR4) Santa Anita,  R8  The Blue Norther 3yo f 8f T

CR5) Any T'bred you choose running 1/1/2014

Standard $2 WP scoring applies.

Good fun

31 Dec 2013 12:51 PM
derbygal

Aqu.

R4 5,7,2

R5 11,9,10,2

R6 11,1,7

R7 6,1,4,7

R8 5,7,3,10

R9 11,12,8,10,2

Pick six for fun.

31 Dec 2013 1:45 PM
Brontexx

Here is a tidbit from the ex-poster on this blog that is still a friend of mine Keeneland Vet(yes hes a vet)

Pick the colts that take a dump on the track before the race,yes they feel lighter and will run that way.

31 Dec 2013 5:18 PM
Plod Boy Phil

2013's Final Play

FG  R8  5 Point to the Wild was vs modest Flows in back to back races.

31 Dec 2013 5:37 PM
Drinks from a glass !!

derby gal plod boy coldfeed and the gang    !!!

happy new year year ...

see u in the paddock with Maggie... # 21 chargers

fun playing the pik 6 yesterday..  

u know what they they say....new year new day....

01 Jan 2014 10:17 AM
Drinks from a glass !!

MR PALMER    MR MOTT   ... RACE 5

your namesake coldfacs..............

01 Jan 2014 10:38 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Drinks -

There's a new Post 'upstairs'.  It's hard to keep up.

If you make Contest Plays,  please re-post on the latest 'thread'.

Happy New Year as well.

01 Jan 2014 10:48 AM
Pedigree Ann

Unlike quilting or crocheting, it seems that handicapping skill atrophies with non-use. I've not done much for many many months, as poor health and *Skyrim* have combined to distract me. However, I will make attempts for the 4 designated races (even though the Twilight Zone New Year's Marathon has my attention now) -

CR1 - Tokyo Time

CR2 - Enthrone if sloppy, Pablo del Monte if not

CR3 - Baby J

CR4 - Sushi Empire

01 Jan 2014 12:23 PM

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