TimeformUS Weekend Plays from Santa Anita, Fair Grounds, Gulfstream and Oaklawn

Monday, Oaklawn, Race 8, Local Post Time 4:38pm CT
The Smarty Jones Stakes, 1 mile, Dirt, 3YO
By Douglas Salvatore

The TimeformUS Pace Projector indicates this year’s edition of the Smarty Jones Stakes will be run at a fast and contested pace.

TimeformUS Pace Projector

TimeformUS PPs for the Smarty Jones Stakes
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That makes #2 Whyruawesome (12/1 Morning Line) the horse who offers the most value in the field. Whyruawesome owns both the field’s best last-out speed figure (84), and the field’s best Late Pace Rating (71). He projects a ground saving trip and should get a marvelous pace setup. The combination of best last-out speed figure and best Late Pace Rating, in a projected fast paced race, at double digit odds, is a very rare one. Whyruawesome is our key horse.

TimeformUS PPs

In addition to Whyruawesome, #10 Coastline (5/2 Morning Line) is a must-use. He owns the field’s best Spotlight speed figure (89) and he was bet to 8/5 favoritism in the million dollar Delta Jackpot last time out. In that race, Coastline was victimized by a stumble at the start and endured a wide trip. In his three prior starts, Coastline had run speed figures of 86 or better each time. Amazingly, no other horse in today's race has run a speed figure as fast as an 86. If you draw a line through Coastline's last start due to his troubled trip, you'll find him a total standout on speed figures.

TimeformUS PPs

There are a few others in this field with some upside, but this is a race that should be kept simple. Whyruawesome has the best last-out figure and is projected to get the run of the race. Coastline has all the dominant back figures.

Betting Strategy: Win bet on Whyruawesome. Box him in the exacta with Coastline.
 


Sunday, Santa Anita, Race 8, Local Post Time 4:05pm PT
The G2 La Canada Stakes, 1 and 1/16 Miles, Dirt, 4YO Fillies
By Robert Finnegan

The Grade 2 La Canada has attracted a field of seven four-year-old fillies to run 1 1/16 on the Santa Anita dirt. There have been stronger editions of the La Canada, to be sure, but we feel that this edition is interesting because of the potential vulnerability of Broken Sword, who is the 7-5 favorite on the morning line.

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Through Friday, there have been 14 races run at 1 1/16 at this young Santa Anita meet, and in none of those races was a horse able to come from more than three lengths behind at the opening half to record a victory. Couple that tendency with the fact that the TimeformUS Pace Projector indicates that this race will have a pace that favors horses racing on or near the early lead, and it begins to look as if we have a two-horse race for the win here between the horses the Pace Projector shows contesting the early lead: Broken Sword and Fiftyshadesofhay.

TimeformUS Pace Projector
 
Broken Sword, who is trained by the red-hot conditioner Jerry Hollendorfer, defeated Fiftyshadesofhay decisively in the Grade 2 Bayakoa six weeks ago, on cushion track at Hollywood Park, after benefiting from an uncontested early lead. The speed figure Broken Sword earned for her wire-to-wire score, a 107, is a better number than any of her opponents has ever run. However, that 107 is inconsistent with her previous efforts--so much so that it raises the possibility of a negative reaction today. Moreover, we do not expect Fiftyshadesofhay to allow Broken Sword an uncontested early lead this time.

TimeformUS PPs
 
Fiftyshadesofhay received a nightmare trip in the Bayakoa. After breaking awkwardly, she became very rank. Then she was shuffled back to eighth. On the backstretch, she found herself locked in on the rail, where she ate considerable dirt as her rider tried to find her some running room. One could hardly get an even-money shot into a worse position on the backstretch. Still, Fiftyshadesofhay put in a brave wide run when finally free. Today, Mike Smith will be riding her, and we expect her to be breathing down Broken Sword's neck from the time the gate opens.
 
Fiftyshadesofhay is proven on real dirt, a surface over which she has recorded four speed figures of 103. She is proven at the Grade 2 level. Her Late Pace Rating, an 80, is vastly stronger than Broken Sword's--suggesting the possibility that she can overpower her main rival late, should it come down to that. And her trainer, Bob Baffert, gets TFUS Trainer Ratings of 90 at Santa Anita, 93 with spacing similar to today's, 100 in dirt routes, 93 with synthetic-to-dirt moves, and 99 when employing Mike Smith. Fiftyshadesofhay is our pick to win the La Canada.

TimeformUS PPs
 
Although Broken Sword is an obvious threat to win this race, we think that the tougher trip that is likely in store for her today, combined with the possibility of a bounce and the fact that this will be the first dirt route of her career (her Pedigree Rating for dirt routes is a middling 67), warrants taking a shot that she will miss the exotics altogether at a short price.
 
The fillies we plan on using in exotics under Fiftyshadesofhay are Let Faith Arise, the "other" Hollendorfer, who has been training up a storm as she continues her comeback from illness, Ondine, the "other" Baffert, and Rathbaun, who is buttressed by a dirt-route Pedigree Rating of 89 as she makes her dirt debut. 


Saturday, Santa Anita, Race 8, Local Post Time 4pm PT
The G2 Strub Stakes, 1 and 1/16 Miles, Dirt, 4YO
By Robert Finnegan

For those of you who did a double-take when you noticed the 2014 G2 Strub Stakes will be contested at a mile and a sixteenth, we commend you on your knowledge of racing history.  For the second time in the race's 67-year history, the race has been shortened, this time from nine to eight-and-a-half furlongs.  Prior to 1998, the first 50 editions of the Strub were run at 10 furlongs.  We would be remiss if we did not mention the freakish performance of Spectacular Bid, who scorched the earth when winning the 1980 Strub in the otherworldly time of 1:57 and 4/5 seconds, which to this day is the fastest time ever recorded by a horse at a mile and a quarter on the dirt. (When queried recently, head TimeformUS Figuremaker Craig Milkowski posthumously rewarded The Bid with a speed figure of 299).  

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The 2014 Strub features a solid and promising group of four-year-olds who hope to use the race as a launching-pad into Southern California's older horse handicap division, which seems ripe for the picking with local star Game On Dude getting a bit long in the tooth.  The 5-2 morning line favorite #6 Hear The Ghost has so many positive angles that it's difficult to see him not being part of the exacta.  The TimeformUS Pace Projector puts this horse in the garden stalking spot behind three speed horses:

TimeformUS Pace Projector

He'll need to maintain striking distance because it has been nearly impossible for closers to win at 8.5 furlongs during the current Santa Anita meet.  Any of Hear The Ghost's prior four efforts would put him in the mix at the finish of the Strub.  Plus, this is his third race off a layoff and he has been training in a manner that suggests a forward move is in the offing. 

TimeformUS PPs

Jerry Hollendorfer has been hot recently at Santa Anita and sports a strong 88 rating. The only way we see this horse getting beat is if someone gets away from him at the top of the lane.  But who?

Govenor Charlie comes in off a 245 day layoff.  That in and of itself should not disqualify him, as Baffert used a similar move to win the Malibu with Shakin It Up, whom he enters right back in this spot.  Of the two, Govenor Charlie may be more dangerous.  Baffert has a perfect 100 rating with this type of long layoff and Govenor Charlie was well regarded after his impressive March 24th win in a weak Sunland Derby (race rating 96, versus today's rating of 109).  He will need to run a new top on Saturday and we aren't sure the odds will reflect his real chances of winning, as this one could be the steam horse in the win pool. 

The other pace factors are Heir of Storm, who offers little value at his ML odds of 4-1, and Say Ow, who could be a huge price, based on his 20-1 Morning Line and lack of any noticeable recent form.  Say Ow does have a decent dirt pedigree rating of 86 and he may have a chance to dictate the race from his outside post position.   Like Hear The Ghost, this is Say Ow's third race off a layoff and we give him an outside chance to spike the exotics.

TimeformUS PPs

Rookie Sensation is the other outsider with upside potential.  The 6-1 morning line does not represent a major overlay for a horse who has never run on dirt, but we will keep an eye on the tote board and hope for some upward drift in the odds, which we think we'll get.  On the downside, Rookie Sensation will probably have to come from well off the pace and, as mentioned, that may be a tall order in this spot.  That said, Rookie Sensation has a sparkling 94 pedigree rating for this race and his trainer John Shirreffs has solid ratings across the board.  This colt ran extremely well on the Hollywood Cushion Surface (RIP), which as far as synthetic surfaces go, at least somewhat resembles a dirt track.  Rookie Sensation was taken out of his game in his most recent start, the Hollywood Derby, a race that had him inheriting an early lead he probably didn't want, and running farther than what would appear to be his optimum distance.  On Saturday he figures to revert back to the tactics that worked for him in the past and while it's tough to see him passing them all, he does sport the fastest Late Pace Rating (100) in the entire field.  Assuming his hooves can grip the unfamiliar powdery brown surface, look for him to be flying late.

TimeformUS PPs

The Wager:   Hear The Ghost over Say Ow and Rookie Sensation in Exactas (75% Hear The Ghost on Top).  Hear The Ghost in Trifecta keys over Say Ow, Rookie Sensation and Govenor Charlie.

Saturday, Fair Grounds, Race 9, Local Post Time 4:23pm CT
The G3 Lecomte Stakes, 1 mile 70 yards, Dirt, 3YO
By Douglas Salvatore

The Lecomte is a rare Graded Stakes race that includes no prior Graded Stakes-winning horses.

TimeformUS Pace Projector

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The 3/1 Morning Line favorite is the undefeated Gold Hawk. By Belmont Stakes winner Empire Maker, out of the 2000 Champion two-year-old filly Carressing, this $450,000 yearling purchase certainly has a fancy pedigree that gets attention.

The most impressive thing about Gold Hawk so far has been his ability to rally from mid-pack and win by clear margins against moderate competition. His speed figures have been nothing to get excited about, but he certainly has the look of a dependable grinder who you can trust to see out a route distance no matter the type of pace scenario.

TimeformUS PPs

Gold Hawk's Trainer Steve Asmussen has an excellent 92 Trainer Rating, however that rating falls off a cliff and is just a 62 with horses going from Allowance races into Stakes Company.

Trainer Ratings

We think Gold Hawk isn't an attractive betting option on the win end, but he certainly is the kind of horse we want to use underneath on exotic tickets, even as an expected post time favorite.

Normally, we like to gravitate to horses who own the best recent speed figures when they also offer generous value. In this case, the field’s top last-out speed figure of 89 belongs to Roman Unbridled (8/1 Morning Line).

Unfortunately, that 89 speed figure was achieved while isolated on a loose early lead, while setting a slow pace (as indicated by the blue colored fractions below).

TimeformUS PPs

The Pace Projector indicates there's no chance he'll get a similar trip today, so that 89 figure (which was a new career top for Roman Unbridled) was not a representative figure from a trip-handicapping perspective.

Vicar's In Trouble (9/2 Morning Line) owns the field’s second best last-out figure of 88. However, he did it while sprinting on an easy pace against mediocre competition. Indeed, the TimeformUS Race Rating for Vicar's In Trouble's last race was just 69 (the Lecomte is an 87). Moreover, if you click the result chart, you'll notice that five of the horses he beat last time out have run weaker speed figures in their subsequent starts. This wasn't a case of the Race Ratings getting it wrong with a field of inexperienced maidens--this was simply a case of Vicar's In Trouble beating an absolutely abysmal maiden field.

TimeformUS Result Chart

It is with hair-pulling frustration that we make Albano (7/2 Morning Line) our selection. Trainer Larry Jones is one of the best in the game, and he owns a 100 Trainer Rating (the maximum) at Fair Grounds. Albano is a perfect two-for-two so far this meet. He won his most recent start over a quality horse in Be Well, who came back and posted an 89 Speed figure in his next start.

TimeformUS PPs

The Pace Projector indicates that Albano should be on the lead in this race, and he will be tough catch if that is the case. His Pedigree Rating is only a 71, however, he's by an obscure sire in Istan, who was just 1-for-5 lifetime sprinting on dirt, but 5-for-8 lifetime routing on the main track. Albano's dam, Pocho's Dream Girl, was also a much more successful router than a sprinter. She banked just 26k sprinting, and a cool 306k routing. We don't anticipate the added distance will be a problem for the tractable Albano.

Betting Strategy: Win bet on Albano. Use Gold Hawk as the underneath key in exotic wagers.


Saturday, Gulfstream, Race 10, Local Post Time 5:03pm ET
The Florida Sunshine Millions Classic, 1 and 1/8 miles, Dirt, 4+
By Douglas Salvatore

This years Sunshine Million Classic is a case of a monumental mismatch on recent form. The 2/5 Morning Line favorite Mucho Macho Man holds all the advantages.

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His Spotlight Speed Figure is a ridiculous 24 points faster than the rest of his opposition.

TimeformUS Preview Page

The Pace Projector indicates he should be on the pace in a race that favors horses on or near the early lead.

TimeformUS Pace Projector

The Race Ratings indicate that Mucho Macho Man has obviously faced much tougher competition in his recent races. All indications are that he's training well, and if he runs to his recent form, this will be a blowout.

TimeformUS Race Ratings

We must mention that Mucho Macho Man was eased in this race last year as a 2/5 post time favorite. That was over a sloppy racetrack, and he has demonstrated a total disdain for a sloppy racetrack throughout his career.

The simple reality is that he will be scratched if the track turns up sloppy. In fact, prior to his win in the Awesome Again two starts back, we selected Mucho Macho Man to win the Woodward Stakes, a race where he was assigned morning line odds of 9/2. However, he was scratched from that race because of a sloppy track and hasn't been beat since.

Simply put, this is a terrible betting race. Not only should Mucho Macho Man win easily, but any horse who makes a serious early bid at him will pay for it and likely ended up blowing a deserved second place finish.

Of course, as racing fans, we will still watch this race.

And, just for laughs, we recommend that you watch this video.

Betting Strategy: Single Mucho Macho Man in all multi-win exotics such as the Pick 3 and Pick 4.


108 Comments

Leave a Comment:

Pedigree Ann

Racing in the USA is being diluted to the point of mediocrity, especially at Stronach and NYRA tracks. The great 10f tests of the past - the Widener, the Gulfstream Park H, the Suburban, the Woodward - are all gone, becoming bland, interchangeable miler-friendly races. The Strub series was once a goal for classic type horses; Derby winners and other classic winners targeted it, bringing national attention. Inter-coastal competition was more common then than now, even though transportation is easier than ever.

17 Jan 2014 9:39 AM
Rusty Weisner

I'll try Vicar's In Trouble.  Into Mischief horses were into a lot of mischief this time last year.  I'll have him with the top two.  I want to find a longshot to pick up a piece underneath, maybe this Got Shades coming off the turf but with some class -- by Pollard's Vision (get it?).

7,4 box

7,6 box

7,3 box

7,4,3 key

7,6,3 key

$10

17 Jan 2014 12:03 PM
ROBBIEJOE25

Day of Fury in the 6th at Santa

Opequon Creek in the 5th at Chucktown

Fastnfree in the 5th at Penn

and VETS horse...........

LETS GET this WEEKEND STARTED RIGHT..........

17 Jan 2014 12:52 PM
Rusty Weisner

Plod Boy Phil,

That horse you'll remember, Eden Prairie, is running in R8 at FG Saturday.  I'm not giving her a chance this time in a more crowded, classier field.  I'll give Always Kitten, the one who chased for second, a chance here along with Starstruck. I'll opt against Channel Lady off the layoff.

R7 P3: 2/6,11/4,6,7

17 Jan 2014 1:09 PM
Rusty Weisner

I don't like this Albano on my tickets.  I much prefer Vicar's In Trouble trying two turns.  

17 Jan 2014 1:27 PM
Rusty Weisner

Unbridled Forever looks like legitimate chalk in R7.  I prefer her to Divine Beauty at this distance.

17 Jan 2014 1:32 PM
Matthew W

I got off work early that day in 1980, when me and my brother Pete went to see The Strub....it was cold and windy, we walked up the path toward the receiving barn, and caught the quartet as they were heading to the saddling barn----I couldn't believe how ordinary looking the leggy Bid looked! he was 4th best looking---Relaunch was a beautiful, robust, buttermilk grey...Flying Paster a strikingly well balanced blood bay....regally bred chestnut Valdez had the look of a great one---then Spectacular Bid, all legs with the large head, but boy could he move! Shoe moved him early down the backstretch, along with Valdez, into Relaunch's "suicide pace"---when 'Paster came with that run of his, and he had a helluva kick---'Bid kept his lean around the far turn, where others would falter, he could sustain that pace, and as they came by the Clocker's Corner, where we watched, I knew I was witnessing true greatness! Best horse I ever saw, and I saw Affirmed, Slew, Cougar II, Ack Ack----my brother hit the 'Bid/'Paster exacta, easiest money he ever made, he says, my boss gave me a parlay that day, earlier on the card he hit a Radar Ahead/double Discount exacta---he parlayed it to Shoemaker in the last race, figuring Shoe would only be on a contender in the last race---and he brought in First Albert at boxcars---First Albert went on to win the Swaps---and I brought him back hundreds, and he gave me most of it as a tip!! What a day, I saw the best horse ever AND got paid!! decades later, I was thinking about taking a cross country trip to see The Bid one final time---he was in New York---but I never did go---it turns out that in his old age he became iconic in his looks, he turned white and retained that magnificent, regal look--Thw Strub Series! Spectacular Bid....Ancient Title....Best Pal.....horses who dominated the Strub Series---Flying Paster, too, in his own way--THAT'S how good The Bid was---how goos was he/ I'll tell you this--take the 12 best horses since the Bid raced, put them in the gate at ten furlongs--Spectacular Bid is 3-5 in that race....

17 Jan 2014 2:49 PM
Matthew W

Old Time Hockey tom in the Turf....Black Diamond Cat in the Sprint....

17 Jan 2014 2:50 PM
KY VET

shhhhhhhhhhhh!

17 Jan 2014 3:12 PM
Kevin

My best bet is the #3 in the last at GP.  

17 Jan 2014 4:32 PM
ROBBIEJOE25

Vet u ran into a beast.... winner got away and never looked backed

17 Jan 2014 5:52 PM
KY VET

yea she got 3rd.......just running avg......she will come around soon.......

17 Jan 2014 6:34 PM
Kevin

Playing a Pick 3 at GP.  

1)  9,10,11

2)  2,6,7,9

3)  3,5,9

#3 is my big bet of the day too.  Earlier said it was the last race, meant 3d race.  

17 Jan 2014 7:48 PM
KY VET

hear the ghost will be closer than people think.....my pick

17 Jan 2014 8:58 PM
KY VET

turfway..race 7 fri night......20wp #6 oblation to wake up......

17 Jan 2014 9:05 PM
Coldfacts

Johannesburg won the 2001 Breeder Cup Juvenile. He is probably best remembered as the US bred Euro invader that destroyed the previously unbeaten Office. However there is something else that is worth noting about Johannesburg. He was produced from Myth a daughter of Ogygian a son of the great Damascus. The Damascus broodmare line is not seen regularly and when he appears as the grand dam sire of a mare that has produced a quality horse, I get excited.

One such horse is Smarty’s Echo. He was sired by Derby/Preakness winner Smarty Jones and out of Silver Echo by Eastern Echo a son of Damascus. He is big handsome chestnut with plenty of tactical speed that for reasons unknown was nonexistent in his disappointing BCJ effort.

He did not raise a gallop in the BCJ and this left his connections puzzled. He has performed favorably on synthetic and turf but has a dirt pedigree. He certainly deserves another chance as he has some positives.

He is the only horse in the field that has contested two G1 races. He is stepping down to a G3 and is cutting back in distance. He will wear blinkers for the 1st time and will race on Lasix on this occasion.

The LeComte is expected to have a lot of pace. It is unlikely that a horse from far back will win as the deep closers in the field will have too much ground to cover. Smarty’s Echo has the tactical speed to stay close and challenge for the victory. Hopefully the unbeaten Gold Hawk  and the ridiculously easy MSW winner Vicar’s in Trouble have some chink in their armors.

18 Jan 2014 12:20 AM
Brontexx

Kay- Why Vet I agree Hear The Ghost will be a lot closer so that there wont be any doubt they will definitely Hear The Ghost as opposed to running farther away then they wont Hear The Ghost until they near the Wire.

18 Jan 2014 8:47 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Brontexx -

Were you formerly known as Chief Picawinna ?

18 Jan 2014 9:38 AM
Plod Boy Phil

formerly,  that is

18 Jan 2014 9:40 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Fair Grounds  Saturday

R6  12 Adios Nardo set the pace of an Extreme for Closers in the Dlberto Hdcp.  I've personally bet this guy in his last 9 races off a string of 'vs Flow' and 'neutral or better' upgrades - no reason to stop now.

R7  4 Istanford recorded a 'Neutral or Better Win' as the even money favorite on turf in his last.  Makes dirt debut today at an underlayed ML.

R8  11 Always Kitten finished as well as could be expected after rating off the w-w winner of an Extreme for Speed last out. Kitten will likely enjoy a much more favorable Flow today.  The Dlberto winner,  Eden Prairie, a tough beat runner-up for us in the Raven Run, drops to a neutral grade following her 'with Flow' win.  Consider the 5 Blushandbashfil for super filler.

18 Jan 2014 10:01 AM
Brontexx

PBP Chief Picawinna?sounds like the name of a horse by Cheifs Crown,a little help pedigree experts.

18 Jan 2014 12:32 PM
Drinks from a glass !!

American horse racing a complete joke....

horses can barely finish a mile and we r supposed to think they can last a mile 1/16?     case in point ...

santa yesterday .. the admiral couldn't make a mile bet to favoritism ......barely made it to 7 f before fade...

baffert had three horses in race . another complete joke and lack of competition in sport ....

the SCRUB   ... WOW A TAXING DISTANCE for an American horse....I am taking a real trainer who can train like a European ... shireffs ROOKIE SENSATION ...

sorry state re:  on race card at santa...6.5 f , 7f,6f,6.5f,1 mturf,5.5,1mturf,1 1/16 scrub stakes,then last race 1 m on turf..........

what a card ... bunch of mid sprinters in race...

same thing at Monmouth park .....6 and mile and 70 ish races only....last race I saw there was 3 years ago at 1 1/4 distance   ... I was there in winners circle with grant forster and joe bravo.....beautiful distance easy to implement there   ..

why do the Europeans dominate    ?  train longer on grass a natural surface    

18 Jan 2014 12:35 PM
Plod Boy Phil

In an effort to get on the board at Oaklawn in 2014

Race 3  5 Silver Antelope (6-1) dropped down to face condition claimers for the first time in his last when he pressed, and briefly led, an Extreme for Closers. Cuts back a furlong for his return to the site of his lone win.

18 Jan 2014 12:40 PM
Drinks from a glass !!

THE SCRUB STAKES FOR MID DISTANCE SPRINTERS ...

I LIKE SHIREFFS ROOKIE SENSATION THE 2 HORSE...MAN CAN TRAIN ...

look at the race card all sprints in my mind especially there.....

what r we doing to racing ....

where r the allan jerkens   thank you... had the 12 horse yesterday at gulf .............

cheap races cheap distances 9 sprints on a race card ... boring ...

where r the 1 1/4 races and up .....?

the Europeans are clobbering our horses on our turf   .. .wake up ...........

18 Jan 2014 12:43 PM
Plod Boy Phil

and that matters why ?

18 Jan 2014 12:58 PM
Brontexx

PBP I am familiar with a former poster with the handle of NASCAR PRO,remember him?

18 Jan 2014 1:26 PM
Plod Boy Phil

No

18 Jan 2014 1:40 PM
Mary Zinke

So enjoyed the rants from Drinks From A Glass.  Hey if you can figure out how to get rid f the Sailx pacifier without making the babies cry too much, great. I think sceptre likes that subject.  Anyway,

Strub: Ghost.  Zeewat closed from like a million back in the Malibu. Would be nice if there's a BG exacta.

LeComte: I like that Turfy 3. Only liked the 1 as having a chance but three guys who are almost always right like him. Otherwise mine are 3,7,6 4. Other alternate in a contest is the 9. I just think 3 has run the best. Shouldn't mind the surface switch.

18 Jan 2014 2:03 PM
Drinks from a glass !!

hey plod boy  , I just like to complain ....

and party ...oh yeah,drink of choice    mondavi red cabernet..  napa valley 2011     $22 bottle. nice right now.

will send out late pik 4 aqueduct.....

18 Jan 2014 2:24 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Mary -

Caution recommended with deep closers out of the Malibu - it was very favorable to that style due to front end exhaustion that required the others merely keep their legs moving. I'm downgrading the winner today as well, but remain very high on the runner-up when he returns.

18 Jan 2014 2:56 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Drinks -

Seemed odd coming from you, a Inner Dirt regular.

18 Jan 2014 3:02 PM
Drinks from a glass !!

hey plod, like to bet most of the tracks ... had the 9 horse yesterday at 80-1 at gulf        5 f on grass the put it back horse....coldfacts was there

almost collapsed  didn't cash a penny .. played a tri for a change...  9 with 3,4 with 3456.....came 9 2 6  ...

late pik 3 aqueduct .. 1 3 10 with  7 8 with 1 8

18 Jan 2014 3:25 PM
Brontexx

Nascar Pro was gone when you joined PBP,Do you remember Criminal Typewriter?

18 Jan 2014 4:01 PM
Brontexx

How about Dr.ALL WEATHER WOOKIE?

18 Jan 2014 4:03 PM
derbygal

Santa Anita Pick 3

R5 1-4-7

R6 4-5-8-3

R7 8-5-4-6-1

18 Jan 2014 4:22 PM
Plod Boy Phil

derbygal -

What we really want to know is if there was a in-house contest today,  which horses would be your individual race picks.

Good luck

18 Jan 2014 4:45 PM
derbygal

PBP

If I use individual horses and I go for the odds, then  would have used: R5-7, R6-4, R7-4 or 5.

18 Jan 2014 5:09 PM
derbygal

R6 Sure getting good to have the head bob go against my pick!

18 Jan 2014 6:12 PM
Brontexx

Kay-Why V will we Hear The Ghost or will he remain silent?

18 Jan 2014 7:04 PM
derbygal

Santa Anita Late double 7-4-1 with 2-1-5-10

18 Jan 2014 7:04 PM
Brontexx

The Silver haired devil surrounded the German Hollendorfer.

18 Jan 2014 7:20 PM
Drinks from a glass !!

derby gal    you were robbed race 6   your 4 was so game to lose ...the pik 3 price would have been nice ...

18 Jan 2014 7:27 PM
Drinks from a glass !!

derby gal    you were robbed race 6   your 4 was so game to lose ...the pik 3 price would have been nice ...

18 Jan 2014 7:27 PM
Brontexx

Sorry derbygal NO DEVIL NO DOUBLE.

18 Jan 2014 7:29 PM
Matthew W

not sure how or why the stewards didn't think Old Time Hockey was impeded by a few inches in the Sunshine Turf---or was I looking at it wrong?

18 Jan 2014 9:38 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Rusty Fires Fresh

Nicely done with the $38 exacta in the Lecomte.

19 Jan 2014 11:33 AM
Plod Boy Phil

correction:  $19 exacta,  but almost a $4 ROI

19 Jan 2014 11:37 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Matthew W -

Just watched the race for the 1st time (no action),  and thought if anything, the 10 caused the real contact by lugging out under left head urging.  When the winner crossed over at the top of the stretch, the slight brush was nothing as I see it.  

Tough beat,  but likely the correct ruling.

Good luck in 2014

19 Jan 2014 11:47 AM
Brontexx

Rusty Weisner I read PBP pat you on the back for hitting the exacta in the Leconte and then out of curiosity I check for the post in which you made the selection and I read your last post on January 17 at 1:27 pm here is what you wrote: I don't like this Albano on my tickets.  I much prefer Vicar's In Trouble trying two turns. Here is what PBP wrote today at 11:33am Rusty Fires Fresh

Nicely done with the $38 exacta in the Lecomte

I am sure there is an explanation would either of you care to reply.

19 Jan 2014 12:35 PM
Brontexx

PBP Qeyaas is first time lasix for Darley in the 5th at Gulfstream. I think I will pass for another first time lasix tommorrow.I think Qeyaas will show speed and it could help him when they try him on turf.

19 Jan 2014 2:31 PM
Brontexx

My bad PBP Qeyaas is Shadwell not Darley.The starter tommorrow is Darley.

19 Jan 2014 2:35 PM
Rusty Weisner

Brontexx,

Oopsy!

I just stuck with the VIT/Gold Hawk exacta.  I tossed Albano from my vertical and horizontal exotics.  And I got bumped out of my P3 when I got a little too contrarian and bet against the R8 winner.  So, two singles, a near-exacta, nothing to show for it.  Except for the fun of recapping on this blog.

19 Jan 2014 3:04 PM
Brontexx

I think its an easier decision when to fold-em than when to hold-em.Of course their are gray areas.

19 Jan 2014 3:12 PM
Rusty Weisner

Brontexx,

I also wrote up a winning tri-key ticket that I didn't play; too chalky.  Opted for the grass horses with Gold Hawk underneath.

The lesson? -- It's not to go playing trifectas trying to win my money back.  Spent $17 to have a good time handicapping and playing three races.  

The other lesson is I'm tossing the grass horses at this track (which I usually do anyway).

Then again, for the price of all these lessons I could have gone to college again.

19 Jan 2014 3:16 PM
Brontexx

Rusty Weisner you 2nd guessed yourself.The title of the other blog Unlocking Winners is a misnomer.There are no secrets to be unlocked in the past performances they are history not laws of science that determine that so and so will do this and the other one will do something else, thats what they have done up to this point in their races.They often try new tactics or are forced into different running styles by the race they are in today.A 3yo is not as predictable as a handicap horse with 10 or 15 races already run.

You have to project what they will do today and you dont need a lock cutter for that you need imagination there are no secrets to be unlocked.Past performances will be completely free one day of course not completely you will have to play a certain amount unless say you walk into a Racino and they want you to play so they give you whats on paper FREE.

19 Jan 2014 3:53 PM
Brontexx

Rusty Weisner while DRF and Brisnet still charge you for PPs because thats their business, a casino will exchange those pieces of paper PPs for the pieces of paper in your wallet with engraved likenesses of past presidents.They will comp you the PPs so you will play more past presidents.

19 Jan 2014 4:15 PM
Mary Zinke

Now what could warm my heart, etc. more than another Eclipse Award for a BG horse?  Oh yah, claim the old guy back and send him to a nice farm.

19 Jan 2014 4:48 PM
Kevin

My handicapping hasn't been what I hoped for at the start of the year.  For the Smarty Jones, I'm going Coastline (10) over Walt (6) over 4,5,6,8,9

19 Jan 2014 7:05 PM
Mary Zinke

No claims.

:(

19 Jan 2014 8:46 PM
Plod Boy Phil

re: Strub

Credit to the winner.  There were a number of viable reasons to expect a regression from Shakin It Up following his Flow aided, big figure Malibu.

20 Jan 2014 8:36 AM
Pedigree Ann

Matthew - I hope your experience at the Strub with 'Bid taught you that old lesson - beauty can be only skin deep. The prettiest horse is not always the best runner. Every year, I try to warn folks who are waxing lyrical over the 'big, beautiful' colt their Derby hope is about this, but mostly they don't listen.

20 Jan 2014 9:28 AM
Brontexx

PBP I like the Darley first time lasix today at GP,but its a full field, and with the winner of the Gulfstream stake yesterday in his history, will see what becomes of the ususal price for connections of 5-1.

20 Jan 2014 1:17 PM
Brontexx

Looking at todays race from Timeform, I think the 1 should be sent he has a bullet work,but the race starts on the turn and I think it is imperative that the probable favorite Coastline break well from the outside so I think the outside trio of Coastline,Tanzanite Cat and Wayne Lucas starter Unstoppable Coby could break well(horses are herd animals and follow) and cut over on the insiders that dont break.The KEY word is break, because Nobody knows which one of these 3yos could break best and find himself on the lead with race starting right on the turn.Timeform is picking an insider with a morning line of 12-1 if I had to pick a longshot I would pick the Lucas trainee at 20-1 morning line.DWayne did well with his colts last year and I think he will make some noise this season.In todays race Unstoppable Colby is from the Zayat stable no stranger to the triple crown series.

20 Jan 2014 1:41 PM
derbygal

Santa Anita R1 going with 2,1

20 Jan 2014 3:23 PM
derbygal

S.A. really don't care for small field but will give #5 a try.

20 Jan 2014 3:38 PM
derbygal

S.A. R1, R2, small fields, 5 horses, 4 horses, chalky as usual.

20 Jan 2014 4:08 PM
derbygal

S.A. R3 7F trying 2,4.

20 Jan 2014 4:10 PM
Plod Boy Phil

The Darly (GP 89) you refer to, Good Response,  is 'just a horse' for me.  I need an upgraded Darley getting 1st lasix.  This is not one.

20 Jan 2014 4:10 PM
Plod Boy Phil

FG  R6  1 Point to the Wild recorded a legit vs Flow Win in his debut on this course two back.  Last was against a similarly unfriendly Flow for closers in an 'ott' event. Win bet and Leg 1 of a 1x2 DD wager.

20 Jan 2014 4:24 PM
Brontexx

Good Response didnt get the clean break, I had hoped and he lost.After I saw the odds,which for 2yo maidens provide clues to how they come up to the race, I only made a token bet.Gala Award was ready to roll, they had trouble loading him the gate,Stevens stayed to ride him.I had the numbers for the tri but my key horse was the first time lasix for Darley and didnt get outta of the gate as well as for instance another recent starter for the same connections but this was a filly and it was on the 7.5 mile turf course which starts on top of the turn and didnt have Gala Award.I know Pletcher tightend the screws on that one he needs to send everything out to win to defend the trainers title.

20 Jan 2014 4:30 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Ok,  with Leg 1 easily in the books,  Flow players look to finish with two horses exiting the wrong side of the same Extreme Race for Speed.  Those horses are 6 Scout Leader and 7 Keystone Cop.

20 Jan 2014 4:33 PM
Plod Boy Phil

oooooo,  not good at GP

20 Jan 2014 4:44 PM
derbygal

S.A. pick 3

R4 7,3,9,8

R5 5,2,1,3

R6 12,3,2,4,6

Pick 4

R6 12,3,2,4,6

R7 1,3,2,4

R8 11,7,9,4

R9 12,5,4,8,6

20 Jan 2014 4:47 PM
derbygal

Keep trying

S.A. pick 3

R5 1,2,3,5

R6 12,3,2,4,6

R7 1,2,3,4

20 Jan 2014 5:20 PM
Brontexx

It WAS a good outside break with the 8 and 10 breaking well but Coastline broke inwards and him and Tanzanite Cat squeezed out Unstopable Colby and the start was very important in this race on the top of the turn as the top three finished 1st 2nd and 3rd.Walt took the lead down the back stretch but got outgamed by Tanzanite Cat in the stretch.The favorite Coastline broke with the leaders but ran around the track evenly never really a threat to the top two.

20 Jan 2014 6:08 PM
Plod Boy Phil

SA  R7 4 Cause Ur My Babe is one of three upgrades in the race for us - the other two exit an Extreme for Closers.  Almost any pace scenario today will be far better than the very speed favoring nature of his last.

20 Jan 2014 6:28 PM
Plod Boy Phil

SA R7  Win 4, Exb 4-5-11

20 Jan 2014 6:34 PM
derbygal

S.A.R7 Big superfecta coming up.

20 Jan 2014 6:40 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Those darn 1st timers I can't gauge.

20 Jan 2014 6:42 PM
Plod Boy Phil

SA R8  4 Mr Ornery was vs a speed favoring Flow on a turf course playing kindly to speed,  while 7 Pulpit's Express made 'Quick to' move going 8.5f.  Box 'em.  Use each in DD to two horses in the 9th.

20 Jan 2014 7:02 PM
derbygal

S.A. if R8 is like R6 then the 2 might have a chance.

20 Jan 2014 7:04 PM
derbygal

S.A. I don't feel to bad as there was only 5 live pick 6 tickets thru R7, after R8 was run, nobody has a live pick 6 ticket.

20 Jan 2014 7:16 PM
Mary Zinke

Also, hunch pick angle for Mr. Ornery. $15 winner for Phil.

20 Jan 2014 11:13 PM
Mary Zinke

Meaning you-know-who, (KY) ha,ha.

20 Jan 2014 11:14 PM
Kevin

I've always considered the Holy Bull the beginning of the Derby prep races.  Very much looking forward to Sat.  Should be a good betting race.  Lucky enough to have tripled up on Monday too with the Smarty Jones (boxed my top 4; 4,6,8,10).  

21 Jan 2014 9:24 AM
Coldfacts

During my evaluation of the Smarty Jones field I compiled the information below:

Tanzanite Cat – Dam: Gentle Wave – Unraced

Denali Rahy Ruler – Dam: Solidplatinumgirl – Unraced

Walt – Dam: Miracle Mile - Unraced

Unstoppable Colby – Dam: Great Design – Unraced

A Step Ahead – Full to Giant Oak; Dam earned $400K

Son Of A Preacher – Dam Can champion 3YO; earned $500K

Coastline –Dam Culinary G3 winner; earned $271K

Fire Starter – Dam Miss Excitement also Dam Bordonaro; earned $100

Dcajun Cat – Mam Rabiadella G3 winner; earned $263K

I saw the race as one involving the progenies of unraced dams against those that raced. My focus on horses from unraced dams is well known. It would be therefore no surprise that I would have selected a contender whose dam was unraced.

The contender that I really liked and wagered was Walt. He appeared to be a genuine and tough colt. His 2nd and 3rd starts were 11 days apart and he ran extremely well over and extended distance. With a layoff of about 5 weeks, I expected him to be even more competitive.

He was beaten by a colt that was also produced from an unraced mare and who had never ventured beyond 51/2F. He was rushed to the lead and switched leads in deep stretch but I could not attribute those factors to his defeat. The victor was better on the day and might very well be the better of the two. He was certainly full on run for his 1st attempt at 8F.

Interestingly progenies of unraced dams finished 1st & 2nd. Son Of A Preacher who was produced from a Canadian Champion 3YO and most accomplished race mares in the finished 4th.  

21 Jan 2014 11:29 AM
Pedigree Ann

Interesting - Gentle Wave went through the OBS October sale in 2010 in foal to Graeme Hall and the reserve was not reached, the top bid being $3,700. Not surprising, since her first foal failed to win, while the next two didn't even race. Her '09 wouldn't run until the next year (one win lifetime). She produced her first foal at age 4, bred at 3. From a terrific Hooper family, she was a half-sister to 2 listed SWs and to the only filly by Precisionist, dam of a G3 winner. Next dam a SoCal SW (Hollywood Lassie-G2, Sant Ynez S-G3) and a full sister to G1-winner Crested Wave, who, renamed Crest of the Wave (USA) in New Zealand, where he became a major sire. Family of Tri Jet. Miler types all.

21 Jan 2014 1:16 PM
Rusty Weisner

Kevin,

That's quite a trifecta, $243-1.

22 Jan 2014 10:44 AM
Brontexx

In an 8 horse field there are 336 trifecta combinations in a 10 horse field there are 720 combinations in a 12 horse field there are 1320,thus 50% more entrants 12 versus 8 contains 989 more trifecta combinations.

In a 20 horse field there are 380 exacta combinations and there are 6840 trifecta combinations.You would think the betting machines would have the capability to print out ALL OF THEM like lottery terminals.

22 Jan 2014 4:38 PM
Brontexx

PBP no stakes for Monopolize or Surfing USA they will be running in NX1 in the 4th at Gulfstream on Saturday.I think Pletcher's entrant in the Holy Bull will try to drop in to the rail from the farthest outside post.This is another race this time at a mile and a sixteenth that starts on the turn.Rosario might be the best pilot for this type of trip, and I dont look for Pletcher in the winners circle in the Holy Bull.BTW Intense Holiday has already tried several that are running in the Holy Bull and finished behind them, having wide trips in these loses just in case Rosario trys to get the jump out of the gate out of post 11 the farthest outside in this race,I dont think he is quick enough to get the lead.

23 Jan 2014 11:40 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Delilahjane returns after 8 months following b-b efforts behind speed favoring flows,  the last of which was Extreme.

Tries turf at a big number in what may be a prep.  I'll pay a few dollars to find out.

23 Jan 2014 2:58 PM
Plod Boy Phil

That's FG  R3

23 Jan 2014 2:59 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Thursday  Oaklawn  Full Card upgrades

3) 2

4) 2

5) 7

6) 5

7) 3

8) 1

9) 8, 9

23 Jan 2014 3:03 PM
derbygal

S.A. R1 1,4

23 Jan 2014 3:57 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Good luck derbygal

I like the Late P4 today.

23 Jan 2014 4:26 PM
Plod Boy Phil

SA  R3  7 Hotradamus had little chance behind the Extreme for Speed in his last.

23 Jan 2014 5:04 PM
derbygal

S.A. Double

R4 1,5,3

R5 2,4,1,7,8,5

23 Jan 2014 5:09 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Is today Thursday the 23rd ?

23 Jan 2014 5:12 PM
derbygal

S.A. Double

R4 1,5,3

R5 2,4,1,7,8,5

23 Jan 2014 5:18 PM
derbygal

R4 add the 8 to the double.

23 Jan 2014 5:30 PM
derbygal

Phil:

Late pick 4

R5 1,2,4,5,7,8

R6 2,4,6,9

R7 1,2,3,4,5,8

R8 1,2,3,5,9

23 Jan 2014 5:47 PM
Plod Boy Phil

SA  R5  5, 10

23 Jan 2014 6:03 PM
Brontexx

DG thats 720 combinations for the P4,two questions, how much are you playing for 50cents or a dollar,and did you hit it?

23 Jan 2014 7:58 PM
Kevin

For Saturday at Gulfstream, I like the following:

Race 6) 3 and 10; can't decide between the two.

Race 8) 9

Race 10) 10

Thinking about singling the 3 in Race 7 also and building a pick 6 ticket with these others I like.  

24 Jan 2014 8:16 AM
Plod Boy Phil

derbygal -

We've got some bouncing back to do today. Not pretty.

24 Jan 2014 8:22 AM
derbygal

Phil:Might try some later races at S.A. early races seem to be to chalky, trying to find some higher odds.

24 Jan 2014 4:41 PM
derbygal

S.A. Pick 3

R5 5-7-1

R6 All

R7 5-6-9

24 Jan 2014 5:53 PM
derbygal

S.A. pick 3

R6 all

R7 5-8-9

R8 4

24 Jan 2014 6:34 PM

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