TimeformUS Saturday Plays from Gulfstream, Tampa Bay and Santa Anita

Saturday, Gulfstream, Race 10, Local Post Time 5:03pm ET
The G2 Holy Bull Stakes, 1 and 1/16 Miles, Dirt, 3YO
By Douglas Salvatore

The Holy Bull is without question the deepest Kentucky Derby prep race to date. It includes a fascinating field of eleven led by 3/1 morning line favorite Cairo Prince.

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Cairo Prince was a spectacular winner of the Nashua Stakes two starts back, and he came up a nose short in a stellar edition of the Remsen, which was run at a crawling early pace.

(TimeformUS Result Chart for the Remsen)

TimeformUS Result Chart

Going into the Remsen, everyone anticipated a two-horse race between standouts Honor Code and Cairo Prince. Two other horses ran exceptionally well, and their performances were concealed by the brutally slow pace.

Wicked Strong (8/1 morning line) and Intense Holiday (6/1 morning line) are the other two horses we speak of, and they are the two we're excited about betting in the Holy Bull.

Wicked Strong is the top selection. He threw his head at the start of the Remsen and was badly compromised by the pace dynamics. That unfortunate start forced him to have to rate, which he did beautifully. Wicked Strong unleashed a furious final furlong in 11.41 seconds while racing wide. It was a tremendously impressive performance in defeat, and we believe he clearly ran a better race than either Honor Code or Cairo Prince.

TimeformUS PPs

Wicked Strong now obtains the services of Eclipse Award winning jockey Javier Castellano, who is a red-hot 48-for-166 (29% wins) at the current Gulfstream Park meet. He offers tremendous value at his 8/1 Morning Line odds.

Intense Holiday was also victimized by the slow early pace in the Remsen, and he is our key underneath horse. His trainer, Todd Pletcher, is known for getting huge improvement out of horses at Gulfstream Park, and he's been doing it again this year.

TimeformUS PPs

Betting Strategy: Win bet on Wicked Strong. Box him in the exacta with Intense Holiday and Cairo Prince.



Saturday, Tampa Bay, Race 8, Local Post Time 3:53pm ET
The G3 Endeavour Stakes, 1 and 1/16 Miles, Turf, F&M 4+
By Douglas Salvatore

A full field is entered in an interesting edition of the Endeavour.

The morning line favorite, Left A Message, is stuck out in post position number 11, and is cutting back sharply in distance off of two consecutive races at 12 furlongs. She is also making her first start off of a 77 day layoff, and solid Trainer Tom Proctor has just a 54 TimeformUS Trainer Rating (out of 100) with route horses coming in off of similar rest.

TimeformUS PPs

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We anticipate that Left a Message will be up against it.

The most obvious alternative is Moment in Dixie. She exits a tougher race at Gulfstream Park last time out, and has good speed figures to go along with her ideal rail post position draw. However, we are more interested in alternatives that will offer more betting value.

The Pace Projector indicates that #4 Sca Doodle (15/1 morning line) will get a dream trip sitting a clear second, just off of the impossible longshot Seattle Me Up.

TimeformUS Pace Projector

Sca Doodle was claimed for $60,000 out of her last start, however, the daughter of Scat Daddy was a very good third in her most recent turf start. In her last start, Sca Doodle ran a TimeformUS speed figure of 96, which is very competitive with her rivals today. She has a string of bullet workouts in preparation for this race, and trainer Daniel Vella has a 97 Trainer Rating with horses off of similar rest.

TimeformUS PPs

At her generous morning line odds, Sca Doodle is the play in the Endeavour.

Betting Strategy: Win bet on Sca Doodle. Box her in the exacta with Moment in Dixie and Floral Romance.



Saturday, Santa Anita, Race 4, Local Post Time 1:30pm PT
The G2 Santa Monica Stakes, 7 Furlongs, Dirt, F&M 4+
By Jason Perlmutter

Of the many pitfalls facing those foolish enough to engage in public handicapping, perhaps the greatest challenge (other than overcoming the fear of humiliation) is trying to anticipate the final odds 48 hours before the starting gate opens.  As any seasoned gambler will tell you, the name of the game is finding overlays.  At times, it can feel like a guessing game and horses with easy angles tend to be overbet.  

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Saturday's G2 Santa Monica features a horse that we think would offer tremendous value at her morning line odds of 9-2.  Her name is Iotopa and she is worth a play in the 3-1 range.  In six career starts, she has never finished out of the money and she is three-for-three in one-turn races, which happens to be the number of turns she will be asked to race around on Saturday.  Her trainer John Sadler has an excellent 98 TimeformUS Trainer/Jockey Combo Rating when teaming up with Rafael Bejarano.  Iotapa will have to fire her best shot off a 188-day layoff, and although Sadler does not have a good recent record, he is more than capable.  Furthermore, six month layoffs no longer have the red flags attached to them that they used to, especially in one-turn races.

TimeformUS PPs

Overall, she has enough positive angles to warrant serious consideration, but if she gets pounded down to 5-2 or lower, handicappers may be best off waiting for a better opportunity in a race card loaded with big fields. Let's hope the deep pockets look elsewhere for their winner.

Teddy's Promise should also be used liberally at her morning line odds of 2-1.  She in fine form and sports a clear speed figure advantage over her competition.  The Santa Monica's 103 TimeformUS Race Rating represents a soft spot for this venerable six-year-old mare.   However, 7/8ths of a mile may be a few strides beyond her preference and she will be put to the test in the final sixteenth.

TimeformUS PPs

The Wager:  Iotapa to win.  Iotapa / Teddy's Promise exacta box (assuming at least 6-1 on shorter-priced exacta).  Use both in multi-race wagers.

84 Comments

Leave a Comment:

Brontexx

Intense Holiday drew the farthest outside post 11 in a race that starts on top of the turn(deju vu Smarty Jones last week)He is not as quick as a cat as in Tanzanite Cat to break quickly and make it to the front or avoid losing ground as he has done in his losses.There are no inductors to pull him along after the break such as Coastline was in the SJ that HAD to break.I dont think he will do well to follow Cairo Prince who comes out of the 7 as sharp as his works have been,barring a bad break he WILL be near the front.There will be others inside of him also so if Intense Holiday wants to assure a forward spot from 11 he will need to GO ALL THE WAY TO THE FRONT.I dont think he can do it.Gulfstream is a SPEED track unless the pace really helps him I only see Intense Holiday on the bottom of the exotic,3rd or 4th.

The other two mentioned by Timeform are more probable Cairo Prince and Wicked Strong.I think WS can outkick IH with his running style shown thus far.

They can change racing tactics and they are 3yos so this can be interpreted many ways,I think thats why Cairo Prince is 3-1 on the morning line.

24 Jan 2014 12:14 PM
Mary Zinke

The nice #1, the inconsistent speed #9, 8 and 7 in the Holy Bull.

Santa Monica: The Baffert is in as would-be race ruiner, may even scratch. Late work today?  Teddy's Promise to win, having fended off the Baffert early, then TBG's Scherzinger, and clean up lady, Miss Kitty. 2,6,4, then 3--I don't know her.

24 Jan 2014 3:18 PM
Ranagulzion

This Holly Bull Stakes is a humdinger on paper: Almost Famous to go gate to wire, fending off Wicked Strong, Cairo Prince and Conquest Titan.

24 Jan 2014 7:14 PM
Kevin

Playing GP Pick 6

6) 3,4,7,8,10/3/7,8,9/1,5,7,12/1,6,7,8/10

Big bet on #10 in the 6th.  

24 Jan 2014 8:44 PM
Brontexx

A nose from winning 2 G2s back to back, earns 3-1,sounds reasonable dosent it?

24 Jan 2014 9:03 PM
Coldfacts

For the fans of Mr. Speaker:

2012 Holly Bull:

Algorithms 1st; Bernardini/A. P. Indy - Ava Knowsthecode by Cryptoclearance/Fappiano

Mr. Speaker; Pulpit/A. P. Indy - Salute by Unbridled/Fappiano

2013 Holly Bull:

Itmyluckyday 1st; finished 9th in Diana Beach (turf), next start on dirt he finished 1st in the Gulfstream Park Derby followed by victory in the Holly Bull.

Mr. Speaker 1st 2014 Diana Beach (turf).

2006 Holly Bull:

Barbaro 1st; first time on dirt. Previous race was a victory in the  8F Tropical Park Derby (turf)

Mr. Speaker 1st 2014 Diana Beach (turf); Holy Bull will be first time on dirt.

24 Jan 2014 10:35 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Ranagulzion -

I do believe you've tabbed the Holy Bull key horse correctly.  Almost Famous recorded an impressive 'vs Zip Win' last out.  These type often require time to recover - 10 weeks is ideal.

Good luck.

25 Jan 2014 9:30 AM
Coldfacts

Ranagulzion,

There are some historic negatives and positives regarding Holy Bull entrant Almost Famous.

The 2010 winner of the HB was Winslow Homer who was also sired by Unbridled Song. That a positive bit of history that can also be viewed as negative. No stallion have sired two winners of the stakes since its inauguration in 1990. I know what has not happened in 18 years can happen in a day.

Almost Famous dam Wild Gams is a member of the Million Dollar Earner Club. As you are aware the babies from member of this club are always out performed by the progenies from the lesser broodmares.

Most of Unbridles Song's most talented runners are either gray or chestnut. I know the coat has nothing to do with ability. However, I would be more confident for you my dear colleague if he weren't Dark Bay/Brown.

25 Jan 2014 9:38 AM
Brontexx

Comparing Barbaro to Mr Speaker, I think his best colt is Top Billing running in the 4th at GP today, have doubts about Honor Code leaving where he left off when he comes back in the FOY.

25 Jan 2014 9:39 AM
Rusty Weisner

Holy Bull.  Chalky, uninspired boxed tris: 7,8,1 and 7,8,4.

Dont't like the turfy horses.  Was hoping for a decent odds on Wicked Strong by virtue of him finishing behind Cairo Prince, but he looks like the wiseguy horse.

Good luck.

25 Jan 2014 9:53 AM
Brontexx

When the same jockey trainer as Almost Famous walked the dog and won the Florida Derby at 9 furlongs there was no speed even on paper.This race starts on the turn and he will have challengers and this colt was defeated by Coastline in the Street Sense after beating the same on the same track in a MSW.

25 Jan 2014 10:03 AM
Rusty Weisner

Brontexx,

I noted the same trainer/jockey for the 4 and Take Charge Indy.  I'll give him a chance.  Speed is better than no speed and half the horses won't be any part of the race.

25 Jan 2014 10:19 AM
Pedigree Ann

This is Gulfstream Park, the home of the 'no-passing-zone.' Except for unusual circumstances, your horse must be in the first flight (within a length or two of the leader) to have any shot to win. Deep closers have little shot at the win - but since the front-runners in 3yo races often run soft fractions in Derby preps these days, they might find themselves close enough despite a lack of early speed. But Silky Sullivans need not apply.

25 Jan 2014 10:20 AM
Coldfacts

Ciaro Prince:

Nashua Stakes winner in 1:37.59! In the 18 renewals of the stakes at 8F, his time ranks the fourth slowest. I am aware of differing track variances each year but those variances existed when 14 other winners recorded faster times.

I have not researched how many winners of the Nashua have contested the Holly Bull since its inauguration. However, I can state that no winner of the Nashua since 1994 has been reflected as the winner of the Holly Bull.

Remsen Stakes runner up in a time of 1:52.92! In the 30 renewals of the stakes at the current distance of 9F, the 2013 winning time ranks as the 4th slowest. Again, I am aware of differing track variances each year but those variances existed when 26 other winners recorded faster times.

Based on research one winner of the Remsen has won the Holly Bull since its inauguration in 1994. That winner was Nobiz Like Shobiz. His winning time in the Remsen was 1:48.82.

Based on the above CP is not some brilliant colt that merits a 3-1 ML in a competitive HB field.  He is a nice colt who is at best a few lengths better than most but is a very vulnerable ML favorite.

We have seen CP in victory and defeat. There are two in the field that we have only seen in victory. Why should we assume that one will not continue its winning ways?

25 Jan 2014 10:27 AM
Brontexx

Rusty Weisner I never said Almost Famous dosent have a chance I rarely believe that, and almost never would post that.I just think looking at the PPs you see him in the 4 hole and that he shows speed and that he is 8-1, they overvalue his accomplishments.His bestrace other than MSW was on the rail where he ran his best pace figures.Everyone should know that his chances of getting the rail and a sole lead are not good but possible if the others let him get away with that.

25 Jan 2014 10:41 AM
Brontexx

Coldfacts Ill take Cairo Prince against your pick.Who is your pick?

25 Jan 2014 10:42 AM
Brontexx

BTW if they use this type of history to make morning lines it is very exploitable,I dont think they use historical times to make the line do yo?

In that sense the US thoroughbred has not improved in decades, if you go solely by the times that horses ran their stakes routes in.They might have even regressed.

25 Jan 2014 10:47 AM
Coldfacts

Brontexx,

The Mr. Speaker comparison to Barbaro was based on  surface switch. Mr. Speaker is making the switch from turf to dirt in the HB. Barbaro made that switch and won the 2006 Holly Bull. He had more of a turf pedigree with Dynaformer as sire.

I like Mr. Speaker as he has many positives. Seattle Slew line stallions have sired three winners of the HB and two of the last three. Mares sired by Unbridled  have produced the winner of two Triple Crown races in the last 3 years i.e., Shackleford and Orb.

A colt produced from a lightly raced daughter of Personal Ensign who was sired by a broodmare sire as influential as Unbridled deserves maximum respect.

25 Jan 2014 10:51 AM
Brontexx

Coldfacts Im taking CP in the Holy Bull are you taking Mr Speaker?

25 Jan 2014 11:07 AM
Coldfacts

“Almost Famous recorded an impressive 'vs Zip Win' last out. I do believe you've tabbed the Holy Bull key horse correctly"

Good horses will always look impressive against moderate opposition. Many times these so called impressive performances are viewed while ignoring the quality of the opposition.

Finishing 2nd to Almost Famous in the AwlOC contested over 1 1/16m and covered in a time of 1:44.98 was Dobra Historia. Anyone that has seen Dobra Historia in action knows he is a big lumbering gray on dirt, incapable of catching a good allowance horse. He appears to be better on either synthetic or turf.

Dobra Historia finished 7th in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes won by Tapiture in 1:43.51. That was one and half second faster than the time recorded by Almost Famous. There are no Dobra Historia in the HB field and consequently AF will have to improve significantly to win.

25 Jan 2014 11:09 AM
Coldfacts

Brontexx,

You are indeed brave! The Pulpit/Unbridled cross versus the Pioneerof The Nile/Holy Bull cross is not fair.

All the positives are in Mr. Speaker's favor.

The late Pulpit is was a exceptional sire. Pioneerof The Nile is just emerging.

Dam sire Unbridled needs no introduction on both end of the breeding  table. Holy Bull is some distance behind.

The trainer of Mr. Speaker is much more accomplished than the trainer of Cairo Prince.

Mr. Speaker has more foundation.

Mr. Speaker has the better pedigree.

If this colt takes to dirt which his pedigree suggests he should, I cannot see Cairo Prince finishing ahead of him.

25 Jan 2014 11:48 AM
Coldfacts

Brontexx,

I was not inferring that MLs should be based on history. The historic information provided was to show that CP is not a impressive as others had implied.

There is a tendency for some to overhype horses when historically they are on par with past winners of the same stake races.

Cairo Prince is the only graded stakes winner on dirt in the field. This by itself should make him the ML favorite. However, if further analysis shows that his winning and loosing time rank the 4th slowest for distances in 18 and 30 renewals of a particular stakes, then his one graded victory is barely significant.

25 Jan 2014 11:58 AM
Brontexx

Coldfacts I am not picking CP solely on his history I follow McLaughlins trainees and his workouts have been brilliant leading up to the race.McLaughlin tends to keep his trainees in form race after race.I will use one of his trainees from years ago before I followed him as an example.He was discussed in these blogs last week Invasor winner of the BCC over Bernardini the 3yo.

25 Jan 2014 12:28 PM
Coldfacts

Brontexx,

If you are an Invsor fan, race #6 horse #8 is trained by Todd Pletcher. He was sired by Invasor and coincidently he was produced from a Holy Bull mare.

25 Jan 2014 12:45 PM
Brontexx

Coldfacts I am a fan of making winning wagers of which the 2006 BCC was one of them the year Barbaro won the Derby and Bernardini won the Preakness when Barbaro pulled up shortly after the start of the race.

Pletcher is a winner and he tightens the screws on most of his maidens at Gulfstream after all nowadays you cant be leading trainer without a fast start.

I am a fan of Pioneer of the Nile as well as Empire Maker because of helping me cash winning bets.Ditto for Curlin sire of Top Billing who runs in the 4th at Gulfstream.If TB runs well today McGaughey could have 2 starters in the FOY depending on Honor Code.The colts that are running in the 4th which is on a Saturday run on a Saturday for more than one reason as far as spacing between races.

25 Jan 2014 1:09 PM
Brontexx

Pletcher has 3 maidens running at GP 1 in the 3rd about to go off and 2 in the 6th Coldfacts the race that has a colt sired by Invasor.

25 Jan 2014 1:33 PM
Brontexx

1st Pletcher maiden Anchor Down just got his picture taken in the winners circle.Pletcher also has two running in NX1 in the 4th race where Top Billing is running.Maiden and NX1 are the easiest races to win for the most part, in the racing campaign of a stakes caliber 2 or 3yo, the lifeblood of leading trainers yearly in North America.

25 Jan 2014 1:49 PM
Brontexx

Top Billing just got an Orbish trip and bested Pletcher trainee Surfing USA in the exacta in a race that was run on the same course they will run in the Holy Bull,of course in 3 hours the track could change slightly.

Do you think Intense Holiday can do the same thing in a race that should be more spread out?The beaten lengths from front to back in this one was 8 for Top Billing before he made his move.

25 Jan 2014 2:18 PM
Coldfacts

Top Billing should have bee entered in the Holy Bull. That was impressive. Although I had reservation about Curlin as a stallion he appears to be doing well. He falls into the stallion category that features the most successful descendants of Mr. Prospector.

25 Jan 2014 2:21 PM
Kevin

Well that was fun.  Nothing like handicapping all day to lose the first race in a Pick 6 and have your big bet of the day finish up the track.  

25 Jan 2014 3:19 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Kevin-

Just one observation:  Once again,  your P6 wager did not reflect your opinion.  Five deep in a race that includes your 'best bet' ?  

25 Jan 2014 3:25 PM
Coldfacts

Intense Holiday: I have wagered this colt in everyone of his graded starts. He has disappointed in all. I will be off him today as I think he will not be fast enough and does not possess a great closing kick.

I like Mr. Speaker  but  will be placing small wagers on Our Caravan, Big Bazinga and Financial Mogul.

If Intense Holiday is long I might put a few dollars on him but nothing big.

25 Jan 2014 3:32 PM
Brontexx

Coldfacts although I think Mr Speaker might go back to turf, it is not out my realm of thought to play him with CP in an exacta.I dont know my exact bet until I see the board and sometimes my last bet is my best.   I have an idea right now who I like but nothing is written in stone as far as my bets, because I play exotics a lot and I think the odds will differ from the morning line.

25 Jan 2014 4:17 PM
derbygal

Holy Bull Longshots 5,10

25 Jan 2014 5:18 PM
Sam Santschi

Stab on Our Caravan with #1 and #6

25 Jan 2014 5:20 PM
Brontexx

Here are the fractional times splits and final times for the optional allowance which was really NX1 at GP(4th)where Top Billing won 23.88 47.23 1.11.01 1.36.00 splits 23.35 23.78 24.99 6.66

final time 1.42.66

Now the same times and splits for the race CP crushed the field by over 5 lengths 23.63 46.75 1.10.30 1.35.41 final time 1.42.16

splits 23.12 23.55 25.11 6.75

What does the analysis of times tell you Coldfacts?

25 Jan 2014 6:15 PM
Coldfacts

Brontexx,

One colt was under aggressive whipping the other was out for an afternoon stroll. The times are not the pertinent factor. Examine the stride patter of both colt in closing stage of each race.

CP does not give the impression he will handle 10F effectively.

25 Jan 2014 6:39 PM
Coldfacts

Brontexx,

Top Billing never felt the whip and was in hand 10 meters before the line. The FL Derby will be interesting. I guess CP will be shipped back to NY for the Wood.

25 Jan 2014 6:58 PM
KY VET

Coldcuts .....again shows how much of a wack job he is..........why not just say "i was totally wrong again!".......like i said, it doesnt matter who the horse is........coldcuts is just a contrarian.........how does my 200 look at 23 to 1 now? the sucker bet future.........

25 Jan 2014 7:04 PM
Brontexx

Coldfacts if the times are not pertinent in the most recent history today why should we believe they are pertinent in 18 previuos running of the Nashua stakes as you posted:Nashua Stakes winner in 1:37.59! In the 18 renewals of the stakes at 8F,

25 Jan 2014 7:07 PM
Brontexx

Coldfacts eventhough Mr Speaker deserved a shot on dirt Shug was hedging his bets for the next 3yo stake the FOY.He now moves forward on dirt with Top Billing and is waiting for Honor Code, and its back to the turf for Mr Speaker which is what I guessed would happen.BTW Mr Speaker good a good workout in this race chasing the pace.

25 Jan 2014 7:22 PM
Coldfacts

Brontexx,

I often wonder why I am so misunderstood. You posted the fractions for the respective races and asked for my comments.

One colt could have gone faster if he was ridden aggressively for the entire race and not wrapped up close home. The other was ridden and whipped aggressively and consequently ran faster a faster time.

The historic times mention in my previous post were to highlight that Cairo Prince is an OK colt not a world beater.

The 2013 Holy Bull was completed in 1:41.81. That time was just a couple ticks off the record for the stakes at 1 1/16m. The fastest time for the distance is 1:41.62. Dialed In holds the fastest time for the race at a 8F.

Neither Dialed In nor Itsmyluckyday hit the board in the Kentucky Derby. Both were impressive winners of the race.

Careful examinations of the Cairo Prince strides in the last 100 meters will reflect that he will be severely challenged by 10F. I made a similar observation after his gallop out after the Remsen.

I am positive Cairo Prince will not win the Derby as he will not be effective at 10F. His strides tell the tale.

25 Jan 2014 10:52 PM
Coldfacts

Mr Speaker did not make a successful transition from turf to dirt. His pedigree suggested that he should but that did not occur. Despite his unsuccessful attempt he finished ahead of the 2nd favorite and three other horses.

Conquest Titan ran a very big race and should he make the Derby field with Cairo Prince, things will be very different as it appear he love that track.

Intense Holiday continues to improve and again took some of my cash. I hope he makes the Derby because he reminds of Giacomo. The surface at Churchill Downs and Derby distance will certainly suit him.

25 Jan 2014 11:03 PM
Coldfacts

A future bet on Cairo Prince will never provide a return on investment. He is not a 10F horse. Only a Kentucky Clown will commence a premature celebration.  No amount of arrogance and lack of decorum can change the inevitable.  Sucker!

25 Jan 2014 11:11 PM
Kevin

Phil, I can see where going 5 deep in a race with my best bet makes no sense.  "My best bet" goes off value.  10-1 for a ML for that horse seemed really high, hence my selection.  Unfortunately I make my bets really early in the day so I didn't know the #10 would go off at 3-1; would never have bet him at that.  But in a multi race wager, I'm not going to single my value pick either; especially early on in a PIck 6.  DOn't want to go out early....which in this case happened anyway. Bad handicapping, but I understand my logic.

My thoughts on Cairo Prince.  Looked super until the end of the race.  Toward the wire, the jockey was really working hard; was Prince tired.  I've never been excited about his pedigree to get 1 1/4. POTN struggled in the Derby stretch.  But Prince's time was impressive and he was pushing a fast pace.  So I'm not sure what to think yet.  Assuming he'll wait until the Florida Derby to run again and will see how he handle's 1 1/8th.    

26 Jan 2014 8:20 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Gulfstream  R9  6 Room Service (5-1) closed impressively despite the very speed favoring Flow on Dec 13th.

26 Jan 2014 9:30 AM
Coldfacts

Kentucky Klown,

You have highlighted that you have invested $200 on Cairo Prince in the 1st KDFP. I suggests that you secured a buyer of the wager if possible.

If you are successful in disposing the investment and intent in engaging in sucker wagering, it is advisable to focus on horses from the barn of the most successful Kentucky Derby trainer in the last 17 years.

The most appealing Derby prospect from his barn is Indianapolis.

Despite the fact that I consider you a rogue, I am prepare to show some kindness with the above recommendation.

26 Jan 2014 9:48 AM
Rusty Weisner

Kevin,

"I'm not going to single my value pick either; especially early on in a PIck 6.  DOn't want to go out early....which in this case happened anyway"

I'm not an expert on everything in horse racing.  But I do know something about losing ;-).  This is a good way to lose a lot of money and recalls one of the most important adages, "Scared money never wins."  Playing to "stay live" in a sequence is not playing to win, it's playing scared.

26 Jan 2014 10:11 AM
Coldfacts

Duff One finished 5th to Testa Rossi in the Miss Grillo G3. Testa Rossi subsequently finished 2nd in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf.

Duff One returned 21 day after the Miss Grillo and ran poorly. She bounced back to win in an alw/OC.  It appears she represents the class in the field and her best should be good enough to win the Sweetest Chant.

26 Jan 2014 10:29 AM
Rusty Weisner

That said, fear management is a necessary part of the game.  After all, what is a "hedge" but a calibrated response to a feared outcome?  And "boxing" is an acknowledgment of the inherent unpredictability of most horse races.  But playing wide early in a multi-race wager has no upside other than allowing you a likelier chance of keeping money in your wallet a little longer and having less risk of throwing good money after bad trying to "win it all back" at the end of the day.  In fact, playing wide just narrows your options late in the sequence and therefore makes losing likelier.  Believe me, I've been there.

The psychological obstacle of fear keeps me away from the big wagers.  Occasionally, very occasionally, I'll play a P5:  when it overlaps with the P4 as a hedge and when I am willing to single in two legs.

26 Jan 2014 11:07 AM
Brontexx

Coldfacts one race at a time.I didnt make any future wagers yet as I stated on this blog, too much time until they load in the gate.You posted about the earliest pool of the wager in its history on this blog,  and thats how I found out about it, but I think the all others pool in Pool 1 will win theres just TOO MANY IN THAT ENTRANT vs the 23 other single entrants for me to have considered the wager.The earliest that I have ever picked a Derby colt was when I chose Empire Maker,and I did allright because I play exactas and I had the 5-6 or was it 6-5.I think EM and Funny Cide were 1-2 in the Wood that year just in reverse order from the KD.

My opinion on Pioneer of the Nile was that he was the best colt in the KD that year but he was on the pace the WHOLE race on a tiring track and Borel had a great trip along the inside only running hard a part of the race to win easily.IMO he was helped by the track and the pace to win so easily ditto for Orb.What else did either do in the TC after crushing the fields in their Derbies.

Next week its the Withers and I know that the 2nd and 3rd place finishers of the Jerome are slated to run if all else is well, and if you remember I took Scotland in the Jerome.I dont know yet if I will stick with him in the Withers but its probable.

26 Jan 2014 11:20 AM
Brontexx

A clarification of my last post I was on Empire Maker by late summer of his 2yo campaign.

26 Jan 2014 11:22 AM
Coldfacts

Brontexx,

"My opinion on Pioneer of the Nile was that he was the best colt in the KD that year.

The cold facts do not support your opinion.

Mine That Bird turned won the Derby, finished 2nd in the Preakness and 3rd in the Belmont. Hew was the only 3YO to finish on the board in all three Triple Crown races so in retrospect he was the best horse in the Derby.

"What else did either do in the TC after crushing the fields in their Derbies?"

Mine That Bird: Preakness, 2nd; Belmont, 3rd.

Orb: Preakness, 3rd; Belmont 4th.

Both horses were the only 3YO to finish on the board in all 3 races.

I hope the above sufficiently answered your question.

26 Jan 2014 1:27 PM
Brontexx

Coldfacts who asked a question IMO Pioneer of the Nile was the best colt in that Derby.Mine that Bird won the Derby easily and then was defeated by a filly in the Preakness and only managed a 3rd in the Belmont.Pioneer of The Nile was injured and retired.The best colt last year was Oxbow he attended the suicidal pace in the Derby and finished 5th followed that up with a win and a 2nd.If either Mine That Bird or Orb was that good he would of won two legs of the triple crown last done by Ill Have Another in 2012 before being taken off the trail.You can argue ALL DAY but thats the way I see it.Go ahead and argue with my opinion next week you can make your pick in the Withers and I will make mine thats the way I argue.

26 Jan 2014 6:14 PM
Coldfacts

Brontexx,

Who asked a question?

“What else did either do in the TC after crushing the fields in their Derbies.”

Although you ended the above sentence with a period,  it does not take an English major to determine that the above is a question with improper punctuation.

“Mine that Bird won the Derby easily and then was defeated by a filly in the Preakness.”

Relevance! Curlin was defeated by a filly in the Belmont and went on to be voted HOY.

The only 3YO that finished on the board in all three TC race was Mine That Bird. This is a feat rarely achieved. Do not discredit it.

“The best colt last year was Oxbow”

Oxbow entered the Derby with a résumé reflecting two victories. The victories included a MSW and the Lecomte G3.

Both Orb and Verrazano entered the Derby with résumés reflecting four victories. Their four victories included a G1 & G2 race. They had the best resumes entering the Derby by a wide margin. The best Horse in the Derby cannot be considered the one with two victories, with the highest level being G3. Oxbow finished off the board in his final Derby prep that was the AK Derby G1. What parameters did you use to conclude he was the best horse in the Derby?

“You can argue ALL DAY but that’s the way I see it.”

I am trying to engage you in a rational manner but it appears your opinions are driven by emotion and not cold facts.

26 Jan 2014 9:22 PM
Rusty Weisner

Brontexx,

Oxbow was 6th, not 5th (and was my #4 horse in terms of money bet), but your point stands -- and it's the more relevant point: coming out of the Derby you want to find the best horse with the toughest luck.

26 Jan 2014 9:43 PM
Pedigree Ann

I see that my brain outpaced my typing and I left an important phrase out of my last post. Correction - at Gulfstream in 2-turn races, a horse had better be in the first flight **at the top of the stretch** or he has little chance to win. And it proved true once more on Saturday. On a less front-runner-favoring track, Conquest Titan could be the real deal.

The old Gulfstream oval, the one they dug up and replaced with the 9f oval they have now, wasn't this way. Did they grade the new homestretch with a downhill inclination? That was the case at Keeneland until they regraded it when they put in the Polytrack - 9 feet of decline from the far turn to the first turn. Old Man Keene's training track set up to make his horses' workouts look better than they actually were?

26 Jan 2014 10:29 PM
Brontexx

Coldfacts what you post is your editorial view of the facts which is what I post my opinion.You can argue all you want about my opinions but I wont.

As I wrote next week is the Withers if you want to argue post your pick and direct it to me and if I WANT TO ARGUE I will post my pick.

I stand corrected Pedigree Ann Oxbow came in 6th in the Preakness,but my opinion remains the same Oxbow was the best in the triple crown.He attended a suicidal pace in the Derby to finish 6th while Orb ran hard a part of the race and won.In the next two legs of the TC Orb was a non issue while Oxbow won and was passed in the stretch by PM.BTW Oxbow had the lead in the KD for a brief second.Coldfacts instead of posting a rebuttal maybe you should think about a law degree, because you sure like to argue with what YOU CALL COLDFACTS but they are really YOUR INTERPRETATION OF THE FACTS.

27 Jan 2014 8:54 AM
Coldfacts

Brontexx,

I do not want to create another enemy as I already have too many. I am sure we can have exchanges without them being contentious.

We all have opinions. I believe opinions should be based on the available facts. Opinions are quite different from assumption where facts are either limited or unavailable.

“YOU CALL COLDFACTS but they are really YOUR INTERPRETATION OF THE FACTS.”

For your benefit, cold facts are those without anything added to make them more pleasant. They are not to be confused with opinions. Whereas opinions can vary, cold facts however unpleasant, can be verified with third party sources.  

Entering the Derby the horses with the best records were Orb and Verrazano and that is a cold fact that can be supported by simply examining their respective records. My disclosure of that bit of information was not a result of my interpretation of facts but rather the availability of public records.

Your post-race analysis does not change this cold fact. One of the colts that entered the Derby with the best record was the eventual winner. It does not take a Law Degree to conclude which was the best horse in the race. You might not like the way the cold facts are presented but that does not mean you cannot be receptive to them.

“I stand corrected Pedigree Ann Oxbow came in 6th in the Preakness”

No doubt you meant the Derby. When the best horse finished 6th, those that finished ahead of him were better. I am prepared to accept opinions that are based on sound facts and not those that can be dismissed because it is clear they are without foundation.

There is a lot we can learn from each other if we keep open minds and avoid unkindness.

27 Jan 2014 9:37 AM
Coldfacts

Rusty Weisner,

Is my assumption correct that you are endorsing Brontexx claim the Oxbow was the best horse in the Derby? Was he the best horse in the G1 AK Derby where he finished 5th?

Are you remotely aware that of the 19 starters, Oxbow entered the Derby with the worst finish in a final Derby Prep? Every other starter finished 4th or better in their final prep.

Lots of contributors hate me because I fail to understand their positions and opinions. How can any ration thinking person come to the conclusion that Oxbow was the best horse in the Derby? I consider myself measured and rational.

He entered the race with Oxbow had the worst placing in a final Derby prep.

He had a good trip on a sloppy track similar to the ones Lion Heart and Smarty Jones had. He just could not find extra in the last 2F.

Four horses that were behind him and taking a lot of mud ran passed him in the stretch.

It is incomprehensible that anyone would either formulate or endorse such an opinion.

What am I missing?

27 Jan 2014 10:04 AM
Brontexx

Coldfacts here are the facts or the HARDTRUTHS Orb won the Derby he came in 4th in the Preakness and 3rd in the Belmont.What his record was coming in to the KD has no bearing on the facts of where he finished in the TC races.

Oxbow came in 6th in the KD 1st in the Preakness and 2nd in the Belmont.

As I have stated my opinion is that Oxbow was the better Triple Crown racehorse because I think he was compromised by the pace in the Derby, eventhough the fact is 6+1+2=9 vs 1+4+3=8 Orb on the basis of his placings in the TC beat Oxbow by 1.In the actual races Oxbow took the LEAD IN ALL THREE RACES while Orb only took the lead in the one that he finished 1st.He was a non factor TO WIN I REAPEAT TO WIN after the Derby.If you as many others want to give him a lot more credit in the series of races on the basis of his winning the KD I can understand that.Why cant you understand my point of view without defending yours.Lets see what you will post next.

27 Jan 2014 11:11 AM
Brontexx

Coldfacts I stated Oxbow was the best racehorse in the TC SERIES not the KD.

27 Jan 2014 11:13 AM
Brontexx

MUMS THE WORD UNTIL THE WITHERS UNLESS THERE IS A REBUTTAL.

Rusty Weisner dont get him tapping on his keyboard until the Withers where he will be able to prove his knowledge by choosing the winner.The name of this blog is Unlocking Winners.Coldfacts go to Home Depot and buy some 3in1 oil and lubricate your lockcutters but please give your keyboard a LAYOFF.

27 Jan 2014 11:18 AM
Coldfacts

"Coldfacts I stated Oxbow was the best racehorse in the TC SERIES not the KD."

Oxbow was unplaced in the Derby; won the Preakness and 3rd in the Belmont.

Orb won the Derby; finished 4th in the Preakness and 3rd in the Belmont.

What would a these cold fact expressed in figures reveal? Do the figures below lie?

Orb: 1-4-3

Oxbow: 0-1-2

The zero above signifies that Oxbow did not contribute to the win, place, show, exacta and trifecta dividesa.

27 Jan 2014 12:53 PM
Coldfacts

Brontexx,

You were the one that raised the issue of the best horse in the 2013 Derby, I did not.

I have tried to engage you despite your obvious limitations and instead of Learning how to communicate like an intelligent adult you have resorted to further expose your lack of intelligence.

This concludes the exchanges between us.

Good Luck.

27 Jan 2014 1:00 PM
Coldfacts

Coldfacts I stated Oxbow was the best racehorse in the TC SERIES not the KD."

Oxbow was unplaced in the Derby; won the Preakness and 3rd in the Belmont.

Orb won the Derby; finished 4th in the Preakness and 3rd in the Belmont.

What would a these cold fact expressed in figures reveal? Do the figures below lie?

Orb: 1-4-3

Oxbow: 0-1-2

The zero above signifies that Oxbow did not contribute to the win, place, show, exacta and trifecta dividends.

Are you remotely aware that Orb's total earning from the TC series exceeded those of Oxbow?

In every measure Orb comes out ahead.

There is no man blinder than the one who refuses to see!

27 Jan 2014 1:13 PM
Brontexx

Still stuck on the same,havent gone to HD yet.MUMS THE WORD UNTIL THE WITHERS.

27 Jan 2014 3:08 PM
Brontexx

MUMS THE WORD UNTIL THE WITHERS

27 Jan 2014 3:09 PM
Brontexx

MUMS THE WORD UNTIL THE WITHERS

27 Jan 2014 3:09 PM
Brontexx

WITHERS LINEUP NO MORNING LINE YET

1.Uncle Sigh

2.Street Gent

3.Scotland

4.Classic Giacnroll

5.Samraat

6.Honorable Judge

Coldfacts do you need to see the PPs or are you ready to make your selection?

The Colt you picked in the Jerome is in the field,if you are sticking with him post it.

27 Jan 2014 5:21 PM
Brontexx

More info on The Withers courtesy of Brisnet:

PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey Trainer

1 Uncle Sigh 3 C L 116 Morales Pablo Contessa Gary C.

2 Street Gent 3 C L 116 Ortiz, Jr. Irad Gyarmati Leah

3 Scotland 3 C L 116 Carmouche Kendrick Dutrow Anthony W.

4 Classic Giacnroll 3 C L 116 Velasquez Cornelio H. Guerrero Lisa

5 Samraat 3 C L 118 Ortiz Jose L. Violette, Jr. Richard A.

6 Honorable Judge 3 C L 118 Bisono John Reid, Jr. Robert E.

27 Jan 2014 5:46 PM
Brontexx

Heres why I played Pioneer of the Nile in the 2009 Kentucky Derby and was able to collect on his 2nd place in the Derby also the future bet exacta,courtesy of Horse Racing Nation:

Cairo Prince’s sire Pioneerof The Nile gave notice as a colt to watch on the Kentucky Derby trail with a determined nose victory in the 20008 CashCall Futurity over I Want Revenge.  The following year, the son of Empire Maker swept the California prep races, earning victories in the Robert B. Lewis, San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby.  Sent to the post of the Kentucky Derby at odds of 6-1, Pioneerof The Nile looked like a winner at the top of the stretch, but was passed on the inside by Mine That Bird.  The game colt held on for second by a nose over Musket Man on the tiring, sloppy track.  Pioneerof The Nile was again 6-1 in the Preakness, but was eased during the race and finished eleventh.  He suffered a tendon injury and was retired in July of 2009.

Heres his race record in 2009 and I still believe he was the best horse in the 2009 Kentucky Derby

1st – Santa Anita Derby (G-1) 1 1/8 miles

1st – Cash Call Futurity (G-1) 1 1/16 miles

1st – Robert B. Lewis S. (G-2) 1 1/16 miles

1st – San Felipe S. (G-2) 1 1/16 miles

2nd –  Kentucky Derby (G-1) 1 ¼ miles

3rd – Breeders’ Futurity S.  (G-1) 1 1/16 miles

27 Jan 2014 6:15 PM
Brontexx

Eventhough Pioneer of The Nile lost the Kentucky Derby to Mine That Bird I still believe he was the best horse in the race and ran so hard that I believe he ran injured in the Preakness although maybe the full extent of his injury was not discovered until eased in the Preakness.

Everyone has heard it said the best horse dosent always win IMO that was the case in the 2009 KD.

27 Jan 2014 7:01 PM
Brontexx

I have a question for the blog Why did this colt  that won 4 grade 1 preps go off at 6-1 in the KD.

PS if Andrew Beyer was around maybe he could answer this although he is getting long in the tooth.

He defended his position that POTN would run up the track while I assured him that a colt that likes to win so much would have a chance to win on the DRF answer question before the Derby or should I say DRF Arguement hour(law degree for AB?)

27 Jan 2014 7:20 PM
Rusty Weisner

Brontexx,

P.O.T.'s odds?  My guess -- a California horse on a muddy track, demonstrating the overrated, and definitely overplayed, factor of "off-track-form".

28 Jan 2014 7:41 AM
Brontexx

Rusty Weisner close, but I used Beyer because his figures and especially making new pars was in my opinion a reason he was so against California horses.

Remember I Want Revenge, Pioneer of the Nile defeated him in Cali, and he was the morning line favorite for the 2009 KD before his scratch.Wrote this because this is another facet of this story.If Pioneer wins that Derby it could have had an affect on Cali tracks moving forward.

28 Jan 2014 8:58 AM
KY VET

allow me to be capt obvious........pioneer of the nile was 6 to 1 because it was a huge field.......he was one of the favorites........

28 Jan 2014 8:47 PM
KY VET

from 23 to 1.......to number 1 rated derby contender.......horse improves twice since i bet him.....and the guy thinks I'm the idiot........it's about spotting talent, knowing horses.........the horse can lose the derby by a nose......and the idiot will proclaim "i Told you he had NO chance!"..........

28 Jan 2014 8:54 PM
Brontexx

KY VET good answer but look at his record 4 grade ones in a row,beat the morning line favorite I Want Revenge in the Cash Call at the age of 2.Whens the last time you saw a record like that coming in to the Kentucky Derby and he goes off at 6-1.

Its obvious to those familiar with California racing and the tracks, and the changes that have taken place in the last decade.

Thats not the answer if I tell you the answer then it wouldnt be a question,it would be a statement.

29 Jan 2014 11:45 AM
Brontexx

My mistake two of those preps were GR2 and two GR1,still when is the last time a colt has entered the gate of the Kentucky Derby with 4 straight wins 2 of them GR1 and two Gr2 and goes off at 6-1.

29 Jan 2014 11:47 AM
Brontexx

RE POST 1st posted January 27 at 6:15PM

Heres why I played Pioneer of the Nile in the 2009 Kentucky Derby and was able to collect on his 2nd place in the Derby also the future bet exacta,courtesy of Horse Racing Nation:

Cairo Prince’s sire Pioneerof The Nile gave notice as a colt to watch on the Kentucky Derby trail with a determined nose victory in the 20008 CashCall Futurity over I Want Revenge.  The following year, the son of Empire Maker swept the California prep races, earning victories in the Robert B. Lewis, San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby.  Sent to the post of the Kentucky Derby at odds of 6-1, Pioneerof The Nile looked like a winner at the top of the stretch, but was passed on the inside by Mine That Bird.  The game colt held on for second by a nose over Musket Man on the tiring, sloppy track.  Pioneerof The Nile was again 6-1 in the Preakness, but was eased during the race and finished eleventh.  He suffered a tendon injury and was retired in July of 2009.

Heres his race record in 2009 and I still believe he was the best horse in the 2009 Kentucky Derby

1st – Santa Anita Derby (G-1) 1 1/8 miles

1st – Cash Call Futurity (G-1) 1 1/16 miles

1st – Robert B. Lewis S. (G-2) 1 1/16 miles

1st – San Felipe S. (G-2) 1 1/16 miles

2nd –  Kentucky Derby (G-1) 1 ¼ miles

3rd – Breeders’ Futurity S.  (G-1) 1 1/16 miles

29 Jan 2014 11:49 AM
Rusty Weisner

And KY VET provides the correct answer to a trick question.

30 Jan 2014 3:48 PM
Carlos in Cali

Somebody please remind the Vet what he thought of both I'll Have Another and Bodemeister in Feb/Mar 2yrs. ago, since he thinks he can spot talent and knows horses...

OK,I can't wait...

He said the weren't Derby-types and had already peaked.

30 Jan 2014 9:22 PM
KY VET

bodemeister and i'll have another were very good horses.....i did say bode peaked....i'll have another i was worried about....he was off layoff.....i.e.peaked means too many good races w no layoff.....you get the wrong message.....when i say peaked, it means a really good horse....that is a strong contender........not a horse with no shot to win........they both were very good......im a professional handicapper....you have to be able to separate the key contenders........i know what im doing...........like saying shared belief wont win the derby........prob. not even run in the race......

31 Jan 2014 1:19 AM

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