The return of SHOWdown is always a big deal here at TwinSpires.com HQ, but nothing would be a bigger deal than seeing Vice President of Marketing Jeremy Clemons with the blanket of roses in one hand and a $1-million bill in the other for the TwinSpires.com player who successfully picked a horse to show in 19 prep races plus the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands.
Of course, successfully picking 20 consecutive show horses is easier said than done—especially since the races are defined by the TwinSpires.com Road To the Kentucky Derby schedule, but if a player could do 17 in a row and five others can go 18-for-20, then 20-for-20 hardly seems a reach.
So how do you get to be the guy standing next to Jeremy? The goal absolutely has to be to survive and advance. Value as we normally discuss in racing has no place in figuring out how to get to the $1-million. Even if you’re betting into a minus show pool, you should always select the horse you think is most likely to show.
As a bonus to our Twitter followers, @TwinSpires is offering $500 to the Twitter user(s) who last the longest (so if someone on Twitter goes all the way—20/20—then s/he would win $1,000,500 (plus his/her share of the $10,000 consolation and the 20 show payoffs!).
Simply retweet THIS TWEET with your pick in the Lewis, and if he shows then move on to next week. If you last the longest of anyone on Twitter then you win $500!
If you’re out of the $1-million hunt, then you can adjust accordingly and maybe take some shots against a favorite you think is vulnerable. There is a $10,000 prize pool up for grabs for anyone who correctly picks a show horse in the Kentucky Derby. You get one share for every correct prep race, and the $10k is split among all the shares that get vested by getting the Derby correct with a $20 show wager on that race.
But that thought is moot today because everyone is alive for the $1-million going into the Robert B. Lewis Stakes on Saturday at Santa Anita Park (link goes to free Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances with comments).
This race is a good test of my theory to take the most likely show horse versus the value because I definitely think Candy Boy will be the best win price, but from a most-likely-to-hit-the-board perspective, I definitely prefer the favorite Midnight Hawk because of his running style and being off the rail.
Candy Boy will be off a pace I expect Midnight Hawk to be on or pressing, and “S” types going 1 1/16 miles at Santa Anita this meeting have an impact value of 0.41 with the rail a similarly lackluster 0.61.
The shape of this race indicates that Midnight Hawk will get to run his race, and we know that race is good for a mid 90s Brisnet Speed Rating, which is definitely good enough to beat four of these.
There is plenty of other great information about the Lewis as well: The Handicapper’s Edge preview, Blood Horse preview, & That Handicapping Show.
And in general Triple Crown news, I have put my first top ten lists up for both the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks. Also check out lists from Jill Byrne and James Scully. And don’t forget that Brisnet.com has FREE past performances of all Triple Crown nominees HERE.
Good luck this weekend. Who are you using in SHOWdown? Tell us on Twitter for a chance to win $500 and in the comments below for bragging purposes.