Lewis Stakes Kicks Off Path to $1-million on TwinSpires.com

The return of SHOWdown is always a big deal here at TwinSpires.com HQ, but nothing would be a bigger deal than seeing Vice President of Marketing Jeremy Clemons with the blanket of roses in one hand and a $1-million bill in the other for the TwinSpires.com player who successfully picked a horse to show in 19 prep races plus the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands.

Of course, successfully picking 20 consecutive show horses is easier said than done—especially since the races are defined by the TwinSpires.com Road To the Kentucky Derby schedule, but if a player could do 17 in a row and five others can go 18-for-20, then 20-for-20 hardly seems a reach.

So how do you get to be the guy standing next to Jeremy? The goal absolutely has to be to survive and advance. Value as we normally discuss in racing has no place in figuring out how to get to the $1-million. Even if you’re betting into a minus show pool, you should always select the horse you think is most likely to show.

As a bonus to our Twitter followers, @TwinSpires is offering $500 to the Twitter user(s) who last the longest (so if someone on Twitter goes all the way—20/20—then s/he would win $1,000,500 (plus his/her share of the $10,000 consolation and the 20 show payoffs!).

Simply retweet THIS TWEET with your pick in the Lewis, and if he shows then move on to next week. If you last the longest of anyone on Twitter then you win $500!

If you’re out of the $1-million hunt, then you can adjust accordingly and maybe take some shots against a favorite you think is vulnerable. There is a $10,000 prize pool up for grabs for anyone who correctly picks a show horse in the Kentucky Derby. You get one share for every correct prep race, and the $10k is split among all the shares that get vested by getting the Derby correct with a $20 show wager on that race.

But that thought is moot today because everyone is alive for the $1-million going into the Robert B. Lewis Stakes on Saturday at Santa Anita Park (link goes to free Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances with comments).

This race is a good test of my theory to take the most likely show horse versus the value because I definitely think Candy Boy will be the best win price, but from a most-likely-to-hit-the-board perspective, I definitely prefer the favorite Midnight Hawk because of his running style and being off the rail.

Candy Boy will be off a pace I expect Midnight Hawk to be on or pressing, and “S” types going 1 1/16 miles at Santa Anita this meeting have an impact value of 0.41 with the rail a similarly lackluster 0.61.

The shape of this race indicates that Midnight Hawk will get to run his race, and we know that race is good for a mid 90s Brisnet Speed Rating, which is definitely good enough to beat four of these.

There is plenty of other great information about the Lewis as well: The Handicapper’s Edge preview, Blood Horse preview, & That Handicapping Show.

And in general Triple Crown news, I have put my first top ten lists up for both the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks. Also check out lists from Jill Byrne and James Scully. And don’t forget that Brisnet.com has FREE past performances of all Triple Crown nominees HERE.

Good luck this weekend. Who are you using in SHOWdown? Tell us on Twitter for a chance to win $500 and in the comments below for bragging purposes.

49 Comments

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KY VET

sa race 1 ....oneandonlyloveman.....#4

07 Feb 2014 3:57 PM
KY VET

from 8/5 to 3/5....i bet too much....#4 wins in a canter.....gg race 2 #3 ten even.....sa race 2 #2 fit 2 rule

07 Feb 2014 4:15 PM
KY VET

ten even wins by 4 also......2 for 2......both easy wins....2nd fav....

07 Feb 2014 4:19 PM
KY VET

sa race 2 lost....gg race 3 #3 county countess

07 Feb 2014 4:43 PM
KY VET

sa race 3 lakota road......gg race 4 alpine gathering....sa race 4 onlythegold

07 Feb 2014 4:59 PM
KY VET

sa race 5...freindswithkmill...race 6...majestic city...race 7 euroclydon...race 8 richintradition

07 Feb 2014 5:21 PM
KY VET

gg race 5 songofthetimes....race 6..northstarfame..race 7..thebainster....race 8..edge forward...

07 Feb 2014 5:32 PM
KY VET

tough beats.....4 for 19.....-8.40

07 Feb 2014 10:10 PM
Little Bill

GP 11) This is the race to be in. Really, who are you scared of? Laugh Track on the rail at 5-2? J Bend, who will make his run, but get there? Pletcher's horse could be nails but I don't know that. Even if you like one of the favs, if he wins you wont see this price on him for months. If not now, when?

07 Feb 2014 11:04 PM
Mary Zinke

Some nice wins, but you shouldn't have gone against big Fury this time, KY.

Track dried out super fast. Lewis: 7,3,5.

Not going against The Dude in the San Antonio. Blueskies gets Bejarano.  I like to try to get the complete order of finish for fun in The Dude's races, if the field isn't too big. 5,3,2,6,4,1,7.

Still looking at the San Marcos. I think My Jeranimo gets beaten. Not quite right for him.

08 Feb 2014 2:26 AM
Mary Zinke

I actually like some non-chalk(followed by chalk) in the Gulfstream Sunday stakes. A couple of 10-1 ml horses. In The Turf Handicap, Nikki's Sandcastle(again)3,5,4,2.  And in The Donn, the many times disappointing Bourbon Courage, 9,3,2,5.

08 Feb 2014 2:34 AM
Kevin

One bet today, #8 in the 12th at GP.  

08 Feb 2014 7:19 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Kevin -

Curious selection for the only bet on a great GP card.  The race is loaded with speed and the 8's failure last out came despite benefitting from a favorable Flow.

I'll take the 13 Bold Perspective - his two turf sprints at AP were both upgrade worthy and his most recent dirt spin was behind an Extreme for Speed.

08 Feb 2014 7:49 AM
TnT

Gulfsteam.

Race 4 #7

Race6 #1

Race 10 #1

Race 11 #11.........been waiting for purple egg to go back to a sprint.

08 Feb 2014 8:15 AM
Plod Boy Phil

GP  R4  1 Souperfast makes his 2nd start w/ Lasix and moves to the turf - goes large today.

08 Feb 2014 10:06 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Fugue -

Scared of Laugh Track ?  Good one.  I have it 2,6,11.

08 Feb 2014 10:58 AM
TnT

Race 11 . May super key 11 plus 2, 4, 6, 8,10. And of course 11 across the board.

08 Feb 2014 1:11 PM
Little Bill

GP 11) I'm reaching way out on this one. I like the 3 Narvaez. The D. Warrior race says something I think. Watched the 1/4 GP race. Looked like a work in company. They didn't use the horse. Could be a big difference between May of 3yr and Feb of 4. My box will be 3,4,5,10 and keys with many.

08 Feb 2014 2:29 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Mary Zinke -

I like one Rafael horse today:

R6, 7 Beautiful Spirit.

You likely already know this,  but Omega Star is sitting on go in tomorrow's 7th.

08 Feb 2014 2:56 PM
Rusty Weisner

Nice pick, Plod Boy Phil, in GP R12.  I'm going to congratulate you in advance.  I like how he's hidden in that last race where the other romped.  Despite the risk of jinxing you I'm going to bet $2 to WP.  I'll owe you one.  I'll also do a $1 boxed exacta with Kevin's to lend him moral support.

08 Feb 2014 3:19 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Rusty -

That's a funny bit.

I'm comfortable with the push, regardless of the result.

Good luck.

08 Feb 2014 3:47 PM
KY VET

aqu race 10 #13 zafiro azul....100wp

08 Feb 2014 4:40 PM
derbygal

S.A. R6 Going to try the 6,9.

08 Feb 2014 4:52 PM
KY VET

sa race 4 #6 nazareth

08 Feb 2014 4:59 PM
KY VET

gg race 4 ...prime bet 200wp #6 justplain hope

08 Feb 2014 5:12 PM
derbygal

Bridgejumpers on Game on Dude $371,930 out of the money!!!

08 Feb 2014 5:36 PM
TnT

We'll done fugue !!!!!!!

08 Feb 2014 6:00 PM
KY VET

sa race 6 #6 lil cheyene

08 Feb 2014 6:05 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Kevin -

Great pick...hats off

Brutal result.

08 Feb 2014 6:13 PM
Kevin

So close......

08 Feb 2014 6:13 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Fuge - awesome !

08 Feb 2014 6:14 PM
KY VET

jeranimo!!!! wp

08 Feb 2014 6:29 PM
Pedigree Ann

Took Candy Boy for the $20 show contest. That's one down.

08 Feb 2014 7:23 PM
Little Bill

Thanks all. Only the ex. Goes down as opportunity missed.

08 Feb 2014 7:25 PM
Rusty Weisner

Kevin,

Sorry about that, unless you played WPS.  At 10-1, and your big bet of the day, I hope you did.

Plod Boy Phil,

I won't try that again.  But this one is an evident "upgrade" next time out.

08 Feb 2014 8:20 PM
Kevin

Rusty, I did have $20 wps on the #8 at GP.  So still doubled my money, but close to a much better day.  

THoughts on the Robert Lewis.  Definitely flattered Shared Belief.  Candy Boy looked to be going easy but I don't like his leg action (think someone else mentioned that before).  I doubt he makes the Derby field.  

08 Feb 2014 8:53 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Everything is chalk after Narvaez..

GP  R9 2 Aldara (15-1) is a non upgraded 2nd Lasix user capable of taking them a long way at a decent price.

09 Feb 2014 12:11 PM
Kevin

Donn Analysis: Both likely betting favorites (WTC, Revolutionary) are closers.  You can't seem to win at GP without being on or stalking the pace.  The 5 and 6 seem to be the only speed.  I expect odds on Romansh to drift up to about 10-1, so I'll go WPS on #6.

09 Feb 2014 12:26 PM
Plod Boy Phil

FG  R4 8 Local One Thirty (6-1) steps up a couple of Mc levels and turns back after setting the pace of an obvious extreme in his first try on dirt. Like the outside draw.

09 Feb 2014 12:42 PM
KY VET

gp race 2 why is dewey square 4/5? ill take #3 majestic cause

09 Feb 2014 1:09 PM
Kevin

Actually like the #2 a little in the 6th at GP.  

09 Feb 2014 2:59 PM
Kevin

In the zone....

09 Feb 2014 3:07 PM
derbygal

S.A. Double

R4 3,4,8 w

R5 2,3,5,7

09 Feb 2014 4:56 PM
derbygal

R4 Should be

R4 3,4,8

R5 Same

09 Feb 2014 4:59 PM
KY VET

my best bet of the day coming up sa race 7 #9 doors open.......200wp ....plod... dont like your 2...omega star today......bet light.....

09 Feb 2014 6:23 PM
Little Bill

Omega Star, nice call Phil. I like sitting on go.

09 Feb 2014 6:53 PM
Plod Boy Phil

The differences were weight, distance travelled and the 'Quick to Zip' move by the 9.  See Lucky v Good.

09 Feb 2014 7:12 PM
Sam Santschi

Phil. Omega Star amazing.  Yes they were going fast but I thought he was done after the horrible start.

09 Feb 2014 7:18 PM
Brontexx

My top three Commish,C-Titan,all others in a box and thats how I played them.I will add as it gets closer to the race.Top Billing is getting top billing but TPs Commish beat him at 9furlongs on the same track they will race in the FOY which starts the series of races with 50-20-10-5 points being awarded for a position in the starting gate.C-Titan will also be in the FOY on the same surface that he ran he good one to be 2nd to CP in the Holy Bull.These two are a good place to start with as they have a shot to be 1st and 2nd in the FOY among several other reasons that I thought would make them good foundation picks in the road to cover half the field or more for A LOT LESS WAGERING DOLLARS THAN you might think.GL ALL.

12 Feb 2014 9:12 AM

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