Future Wagers Offer Chance To Drink Kool Aid

There is no shortage of opinions regarding a horse’s performance following races on the TwinSpires.com Kentucky Derby Championship Series, and the beauty of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager is that it allows bettors to put their money where their mouths are (assuming the price is right).

Pool 3 is now open and closes Saturday before the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct (more on that race on Friday). For FREE Brisnet.com Ultimate PPs with comments for the Gotham, click here; for FREE future wager PPs, click here.

The most popular flavors of Kool Aid following last weekend’s races were Top Billing in a loss (third in the Fountain of Youth behind Wildcat Red and General a Rod) and Intense Holiday in a Risen Star Stakes win. The former is 8-to-1 on the morning line while the latter is 15-to-1. I don’t want either at those prices, and I have Top Billing shorter on my fair odds line as well, but Intense Holiday is more likely to be a bet come Saturday afternoon.

In this week's Bullet Train Stud Kentucky Derby Platform, Sean Feld shares my distaste for the Top Billing Kool Aid.

Others in pool 3 who ran last weekend are Wildcat Red and General a Rod from the aforementioned Fountain of Youth, Constitution from a Gulfstream allowance race, and Albano and Vicar’s In Trouble—second and third, respectively in the aforementioned Risen Star.

There is a lot of early speed among the 23 individual betting interests, and while I definitely think it’s too early to get hung up on handicapping the pace scenario of this year’s Derby, I think the combination of potential pace and pedigree of Albano, Uncle Sigh, Vicar’s In Trouble, and Wildcat Red is enough to be bearish on their chances as four of the 14 individual entries with at least five Quirin Speed Points.

The three “E” types I like best are Bayern, Kristo, and Samraat, though my concern with Samraat is he faces a lot of speed in the Gotham and picks up seven pounds. More on that race on Friday, but for future wagering purposes, it might be better to sit tight on him. The time for Kristo was probably last time at 76.6-to-1, but at least you know he’s training forwardly, has a few points, and is pointing for a race soon. Bayern turned a lot of heads when crushing stablemate Tap It Rich last out but needs points, and the waters are getting deep.

Overall, it’s hard to judge too much based on the morning line because the field being 6-to-1 on it when I expect it to be no more than 4-to-1 in actual betting skews individual contenders low.

The Southwest exacta of Tapiture (15-to-1 morning line) and Strong Mandate (20-to-1 morning line) look interesting, as I’d be inclined to bet either of them at 20-to-1. I know some wouldn’t touch two-year-old champion male Shared Belief at any price, as in addition to the soundness concerns he has no points, but I can’t ignore that he’s the fastest horse of his generation, and I’d take a flyer on him in that 20-to-1 ballpark.

Honor Code is number one right now as far as polls go (with Shared Belief number two), but that’s based on what happened last year, and time is running out to show me something this year. At least Honor Code is back working, though, and I’d take a chance on him at 15-to-1 or better.

All that might be moot, though, as I expect my biggest bet to be on the field if the odds are 4-to-1 or better. I bet the field in Pool 2 when its odds were 9-to-5, but I wasn’t alone in my thinking there, as it went down to 3-to-2 by the time the pool closed. I also bet Bobby’s Kitten and Rise Up, and neither made the current pool, though I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bobby’s Kitten back for the final pool March 27-29 if he wins this weekend at Gulfstream.

Below is my fair odds line for pool 3 as well as a summary of my action to date.

For those looking for even more bang for their future wager buck, the TwinSpires.com 1-million points Future Wager fantasy draft gives you action throughout the 170-point races for $15 by betting $7, $5, and $3 on one horse in each of three groups (no field). Scoring is the same as the TwinSpires.com Kentucky Derby Championship Series with the Derby itself worth 5x points.

34 Comments

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Coldfacts

“but I can’t ignore that he’s the fastest horse of his generation”

This is not an attempt to be controversial but each time I view a statement similar to the one above, I feel compelled to enquire about its merit.

Shared Belief has only contested races on synthetic surfaces. He was victorious in all his starts on said surfaces. He is therefore the fastest horse of his generation on synthetic tracks.

Who is the fastest horse of the current 3YO generation on turf? That vote should easily go to Bobby’s Kitten.

Who is the fastest horse of the current 3YO generation on dirt? It would be difficult to make a definitive choice for various reasons. The pool of 3YOs that race on dirt in significantly greater than the pool that races on other surfaces.  There a number of fast horses on dirt.

Sammaart like Shared Belief is undefeated. Should he get the vote despite his average speed figures? Ride On Curlin is the only colt to have recorded a NTR on dirt. Should he be considered the fastest on dirt? The retire New Year's Day defeated the fastest 2YOs on dirt in the BCJ. Havana finished 2nd to NYD. With NYD retirement, should Havana get the vote as the fastest on his generation still on the Derby Trail?

The above reflects my reluctance to agree that Shared Belief is the fastest of his generation. If the conclusion is based purely on Beyer figures, was here an extrapolation undertaken to determine if he would be the fastest on all surfaces? This is assuming such an extrapolation is possible.  

28 Feb 2014 7:20 AM
Coldfacts

I would take a shot with Wildcat Red at those odds as he reminds me a lot of Smarty Jones. His only real loss in 6 starts came by a NS in his 1st attempt at 8F. What did he do next? He returned to win a race that was half a furlong longer against a stonger field. Speed is a thoroughbred race horse most important asset. This colt has it and he just needs to be given guidance to carry it over a distance of ground. It appears the more his rider asks the more his rider gives. Speed and determination is a potent combination.

Honor Code, Havana and Tamaramdo would be part of my box wager for the exacta.

28 Feb 2014 7:40 AM
Carlos in Cali

Havana: By Dunkirk,who was bred to 186 mares in 2010.

Dunkirk: By Unbridled's Song,who according to some people,throws fragile injury-prone horses and who himself was retired due to injury after a brief 4-5 race career.

Seems like you are going against your own so-called "Coldfacts" theories.

Hypocrite: A person who engages in the same behaviors he condemns others for.

28 Feb 2014 1:00 PM
KY VET

All i know is........the bet the bet that people say is stupid, when i bet pool 1......gave me almost 27 to 1 on cairo prince...who was just bought for millions......and 10 to one on honor code......top 2 rated horses......in pool 3.........you gotta know what good horses look like.......

28 Feb 2014 4:16 PM
Ranagulzion

KY Vet, Coldfacts, Carlos: Tapiture is a legitimate Kentucky Derby contender ...a bit underrated. If he stays sound he's the type to stalk and get first run on the closers ...take a good look at him.

28 Feb 2014 8:15 PM
KY VET

i dont think he is sound.......we shall see huh?

28 Feb 2014 11:02 PM
Coldfacts

Carlos in Cali,

You are indeed correct in questioning my decision to propose Havana for a KDF wager. He has many negatives. His sire Dunkirk bred almost 200 mares in 2010. Historically stallions that breed that many mares are not well represented in the Derby and none their progenies have won the great race to date. His trainer as <3% Derby win record despite training horses with the bluest of blood.

His grand dam sire was known in industry circles for siring very fragile horses and Dunkirk made only 5 starts. Havana not unexpectedly seems to have some soundness issues and might not even make the Derby because of interruptions in his training schedule.

There are some positives associated with Havana. His dam line has a very successful Derby history. Is that bit of positive history enough to supersede his negatives? Probably not! The colt has a lot class and I guess I am hoping he could be the one that proves me wrong.

01 Mar 2014 8:03 AM
Coldfacts

Ranagulzion,

Tapiture is very nice colt from a very large foal crop. In fact his sire Tapit has the most horses nominated to the Triple Crown with 16. I am yet to see a horse from those large books of mares bred, win the Derby. The Tapits tend to be fragile. There is a major positive associated with this colt. He is a homebred. Homebreds have won 7 of the last 10 Derbies.

I am sure you probably do not realize that the sire and dam sire of Winning Colors and A P Indy were both tail descendants of Nasrullah. Tapiture sire and dam sire are also tail descendants of Nasrullah. Could he emulate the efforts of Winning Colors and A P Indy? Anything is possible.

The top colt he defeated was losing its third consecutive race and appears to have reached the zenith of its ability. He is a nice colt who needs to beat better to get my vote.

01 Mar 2014 9:23 AM
Brontexx

Coldfacts Tapiture traces back to Bold Reasoning from his sire if you go 5 generations back.Bold Reasoning is 1968 and Nasrullah is 1940 so you would have had to go back more than 5 to come across Nasrullah in his pedigree.

01 Mar 2014 11:21 AM
Ranagulzion

KY Vet: What sign of unsoundness have you seen in Tapiture? He's a beautiful colt and a good mover as far as I can see. I think that he's a major force coming out of Oaklawn Park ...the one they all have to beat out there (that includes my #1 Derby horse Honor Code).

Tapiture is growing on me.

Coldfacts: Tapiture has a very stout pedigree for the Derby distance. His broodmare sire Olympio was a good router and his second dam Spin n Win has impeccable inbreeding to major classic influences Nasrullah, Hyperion and blue hen broodmares, La Troinne (via through Numbered Account), and Selene (via her sons Pharamond, Sickle -grandsire of Native Dancer- and the great one, Hyperion, himself). Tapiture has a very bright future in the breeding shed and I think that he's going to enhance his future value with being a major factor in the Triple Crown races. Having examined his credentials including his affinity for Churchill Downs, I'm prepared to rank him right now at #4 behind Honor Code, Shared Belief and Top Billing for the Kentucky Derby.

01 Mar 2014 5:38 PM
Brontexx

Ranagulzion Tapiture is in the gate with the 22 points he has already, but I havent added him because as they run longer in tougher races Im not convinced he will come out of Arkansas on top.If he beats Strong Mandate in the rubber match, their 3rd race against each other then I will ad him to my Derby futures,Strong Mandate beat him at Saratoga in a MSW.

As for Top Billing he was beat by Commissioner at 9 panels so just because he got 3rd in the FOY who has he beat.

01 Mar 2014 6:42 PM
Ranagulzion

Brontexx: Strong Mandate was a short horse in the Southwest and should improve off that run but I still can't see him turning the tables on Tapiture at level weights from here on.

As for Top Billing, he ran a very good race in the FOY against the track bias and against two very good colts in General a Rod and Wildcat Red. Asking who he's beaten sounds amateurish. He's a superior proposition than Commissioner for the Kentucky Derby.

01 Mar 2014 10:47 PM
Brontexx

Ranagulzion Top Billing has gotten the attention of the media, and until he finally proves either how good he is or not he will be bet mostly on hype,if you think this is coming from an amatuer that is your opinion.

The fact is Commissioner beat him fair and square and Commissioner, has not been eliminated entirely.

I would like if Top Billing makes it to the KD by running another race where he finishes 3rd or 4th and all the pundits continue to sell him based on editorial mish mash(he ran his last so and so in etc)

If Top Billing dosent win his next prep and goes into the gate as the favorite or one of the favorites after the race the media will finally come to its senses.Orb ran last year and thats history.

02 Mar 2014 8:13 AM
Coldfacts

Ranagulzion,

To some extent I have to agree with the comment that Top Billing has been prematurely awarded the Derby #1 spot by many including the very learned Steve Haskin. He is a very nice colt with an electrifying turn of foot but the Derby crop of 2014 has some seriously fast horses that appear to be able to carry their speed.

Top Billing is yet to win a graded race and the speculation is that he just needs a better draw and more ground to being seen at his best. The success of really good ones never hinges on ideal conditions. They normally make their own success by overcoming adversities.  

02 Mar 2014 9:38 AM
Coldfacts

Ranagulzion,

Top Billing has a similar running style to Dialed In a past favorite of yours.  Dialed In won the Holy Bull and FL Derby closing from far back with his signature electrifying turn of foot. However, on Derby day with 126Lbs and a deep Churchill Downs track he could not get back to the high cruisers with the ability to accelerate from close to the pace. It is always unwise to assume that the leaders will decelerate sufficiently for the closer to capitalize. That likelihood is contingent on the leaders being cheap speed opponents.

With me being the exception, nobody has posted a comment about the 4th place finished in the FOY. He had the worst draw of any of the FOY entrants and close form the furthest back. East Hall has been of the board 9 out of 11 starts with his widest margin of defeat experienced in the FOY. Based on his draw that margin can be excused. He was only 41/2L behind Top Billing. He was 72-1. Talk about chopped liver!

02 Mar 2014 9:41 AM
Coldfacts

Brontexx,

You highlighted the generational gap but you did not specify a point. Just about every sire and dam sire line trace back to Phalaris 1913. In the last 50 years 19 horses whose sires trace back to Nasrullah have won Triple Crown races. Winning Color and A P Indy were the only two of the 19  whose sire and dam sire were both tail descendant of Nasrullah. Whereas tails descendants can go back several generations, no one accurately knows the extent to which Nasrullah influence diminishes through generations.

I sand corrected, probably some folks can accurately identify the generation where the influence of a major stallion diminishes and ceases entirely.

02 Mar 2014 10:03 AM
Coldfacts

Ranagulzion,

I concur with your assessment of Tapiture’s pedigree. He is also one of a handful of horses on the Derby trail that have two graded stakes wins. I have not seen Olympio featured as the dam sire of many top class horses. However, there is some positive TC history associated broodmare sires who are tail descendants of Nasrulla.

In the last 50 years the dams of 15 winners of Triple Crown races were sired by tail descendants of Nasrullah. Caro the dam sire of Winning Colors was a great grandson of Nasrullah. Olympio was also a great grandson of Nasrullah.

Tapiture’s ability is not in question. His sire line is associated with 19 winners of TC races with two in the last 3 years. His dam sire line is also associated with 15 winners of TC races. Ability plus positive history is a powerful formula for Derby success.

02 Mar 2014 10:44 AM
KY VET

ranag...i cant tell ya my secret....ive said vicars in trouble.....harpoon....and tapiture look like they have problems.....vicar stopped like he was shot, harpoon dint run good.....now lets see if tap runs bad......

02 Mar 2014 3:07 PM
Brontexx

KY VET TAP has shot his wad, Nasrullah's tail wont be able to help him squirt thru on the inside in the next one.

02 Mar 2014 4:43 PM
Brontexx

KY VET Its kind of funny that you choose Harpoon and Vicars in Trouble to drop the anchor on, These two could be the NAMES ON FISHING BOATS.

When the Beyer metodology causes you to look in the cookie jar its time for esoteric meanderings to backers of Dialed In.

02 Mar 2014 5:39 PM
Brontexx

KY VET Its kind of funny that you choose Harpoon and Vicars in Trouble to drop the anchor on, These two could be the NAMES ON FISHING BOATS.

When the Beyer metodology causes you to look in the cookie jar its time for esoteric meanderings to backers of Dialed In.

02 Mar 2014 5:55 PM
Ranagulzion

Coldfacts: East Hall isn't fashionably bred but is the type of horse that will be consistently picking up the pieces ...good for your exotic wagers but not a winning factor when the big guns show up for the big dance.

KY Vet: In the Southwest Stakes, Tapiture didn't keep a straight course at the top of the stretch but he eventually straightened out and finished full of run. Was it the minor 'zig zag' that sent your 'unsoundness alarm' off?

Brontexx: I'll let Top Billing answer you in his next outing.

I've been taking a loser look at the Kentuck Derby aspirants lately and am also liking a lot the Calfornians, Caliornia Chrome and Kobe's Back especially the former. I have a gut feeling that California Chrome is going to be throwing down the gauntlet when next out and could become the top dog out there, whether or not Shared Belief show up.

02 Mar 2014 6:22 PM
Brontexx

KY VET next year they can have Moby Dick and Captain Ahab.

02 Mar 2014 6:23 PM
Brontexx

Ranagulzion RE Tapiture and Top Billing, Ill wait for an answer  from their next race results,much like the trainers state, Ill let him tell me when hes ready.

BTW Tapiture IMO was a better proposition at 17-1 in the last  futures vs Top Billing at 11-1.I also prefer Shugs more accomplished competitor Honor Code who closed at 11-1.

02 Mar 2014 7:22 PM
Brontexx

Coldfacts     Brontexx,

You highlighted the generational gap but you did not specify a point     That is the point,you once again tried to twist the facts to suit your needs, much like polititians do.Dont you know that everyone on here knows that is what you do.I know you study pedigrees, and maybe you should be involved in this game in that aspect.I like to win bets, and pick winners, with whatever it takes.I dont need to twist any facts to support my opinions.I bet my opinions on my ADW accounts.

03 Mar 2014 6:57 AM
Coldfacts

Brontexx,

"That is the point you once again tried to twist the facts to suit your needs, much like politicians do."

Your confrontational nature is always revealed in your writing. This forum provides an opportunity for meaningful exchanges of views, information and ideas. Agreement with said views, information and ideas is not a requirement. The unwritten rule of respect is.

"Don't you know that everyone on here knows that is what you do"

I merely responded to a blogger's opinion of a particular colt. I was not the only contributor that responded. In your urgency to be offensive you might have missed the fact that the pedigree issue was raised by the blogger to whom I directed my response.

If you found my comments without merit then you had the option to bypass them. Going forwards, if you chose to engage me, kindly do so with decorum.

03 Mar 2014 9:23 AM
Brontexx

Coldfacts I dont know what you are writing about, the parts of your text that I copied were addressed to me.Futhermore if you think that I dont use tact when addressing you then the easiest way to avoid the back and forth is to ignore me.

When you copy parts of what I post on here and pick it apart, you are opening yourself up for retribution or do you think that you run this blog.

Look forward to your reply.

03 Mar 2014 1:08 PM
Coldfacts

Brontexx,

You have my sincere apology for assuming that respectful and meaning exchanges were possible with you. It was a serious blunder on my path.

04 Mar 2014 11:02 AM
Coldfacts

I concur East Hall is not fashionably bred. But neither were Lil E Tee, Gaicomo and Gato Del Sol. With the size of stallion and broodmare populations in the US, there is always the possibility of an unfashionably bred champion.

His sire Graeme Hall is a grandson of Deputy Minister. To some he is an insignificant and non-performing sire. His best offspring is possibly millionaire Duke Of Mischief. Deputy Minister sire BCC winner Awesome Again and Belmont winner Touch Gold. He was also dam sire of Sarava, Jazil, Rags To Riches and Curlin. Add to the list Champion Open Mind and one has to think that a tail descendent of Deputy Minister should be capable of being a decent sire.

His son Awesome Again sired BCC winner Ghostzapper and Preakness winner Oxbow. His grandson Ghostzapper is the sire of Hear The Ghost who has a good chance beating WTC and MMM in The Big Cap.

East Hall’s dam was unraced and is an unknown quantity. Lightly raced and unraced mares have a record of producing champions.  His dam sire Sultry Song was a millionaire router who won 10F races at Arlington/Hollywood Park and 9F races at Saratoga/Belmont.

Graeme Hall is tail descendant of a line that has produced the winner of 18 Triple Crown races. Sultry Song is tail descendent of a broodmare line that has produced the winners of 10 TC races. There is history of success in the sire and dam line of East Hall. In light of this cold fact, anything is possible.

04 Mar 2014 11:39 AM
Brontexx

Coldfacts you have this habit of copying parts of the text of the person you are posting to and it makes it seem like those parts that you copy are wrong and your reply is correct.

I have to tell you the only facts involved in this game are parts of history such as PPs.To excel at picking winners or making winning bets you have to take these parts of history and project what will happen next.

These people on this blog (including me)are sharing their projections for the colts they think will win the toughest race in the World(or one of the toughest)

Their is not a right answer or opinion until after the race is run.So when you copy parts of what I write and use facts to try and dissuade me from my opinion it leads to retribution, because as I wrote the facts are history the future is speculation, with a high dose of opinion.

04 Mar 2014 5:55 PM
Brontexx

Coldfacts if I wanted to emulate you I would go to Steve Haskins Derby Dozen and copy parts or all he wrote about Top Billing and pick it apart.

Then again he or one of his assistants might e-mail me or confront me on the blog directly, and read me my rights (so to speak)of course I wouldnt take any roadsides or blow into any machine,but on this blog I dont think it would matter capiche.

04 Mar 2014 6:03 PM
Coldfacts

Brontexx,

Your assumption is incorrect. I cite specific sections of a contributor’s submissions to highlight either the specific point or issue I am addressing. It is not done to highlight incorrectness.

I am at a loss as to why you have this tendency to attack me.  Are you a pupil of the KY VET? You have accused me of having politician tendencies. You have recommended that I visit Home Depot to secure supplies. I would like you to pause and assess if those thoughts represents someone that is equip to engage in meaningful exchanges.

Disrespect of another doesn’t reflect strength but rather a major weakness. It is unlikely that you will learn anything form those you despise. However, there are many other contributors whose communication skills you can adopt.

05 Mar 2014 9:05 AM
Brontexx

Coldfacts I will say this for you you have mastered the way to argue the opinions of others in a less direct way.I am more direct that you are in writing,let me borrow your style for a minute here is what you wrote:

I cite specific sections of a contributor’s submissions to highlight either the specific point or issue I am addressing. It is not done to highlight incorrectness.

When you write specific point you are addressing it means in a brash way the specific point YOU ARE CONTESTING,if you do not admit this then you are in denial sir.

As far as being a pupil of KY VET he is a Beyer methodologist.I have my own methodology so why would I copy a methodologist that is available to all that buy a copy or acquire a copy of DRF.

I never stated that I despised neither you or KY VET if you wish to contest this specific point you wont be able to copy it from ANY post I have made.

05 Mar 2014 2:56 PM
Brontexx

Coldfacts you can refer to me as a Brontexologist sounds a lot better than being a pupil of an old Washington Post scribe.I assume I can consider you a Coldfactsologist.

BTW I consider myself a specialist in Triple Crownenomics.

05 Mar 2014 3:16 PM

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