Weight a Big Factor In Gotham

By Ed DeRosa

One of racing’s great ironies is the common lament, “I don’t regard weight to handicap races” (or some such).

In today’s parlance, “to handicap a race” usually means to figure out who’s going to win (or what chance each horse has of winning), but the origin of the term has to do with assigning weight to horses in a race.

Weight mattered then and it does today. You’ll never hear me say “weight doesn’t matter” not only because I understand physics but also because every horseman I spoke to in eight years at Thoroughbred Times thought it mattered.

The question today’s handicapper must ask is how much it matters. Even one pound can make a difference, but unless you think the race is likely to be decided by a nose it probably won’t. But weight affects more than top speed. It’s a factor in acceleration and maneuverability as well. I.e., the bigger the weight shift and/or bigger the impost, the more likely it is to contribute to a troubled trip.

One study I’d like to undertake with all the great Brisnet.com data out there is to match weight with the running styles found in our Ultimate Past Performances and other products (e.g. “E” [early], “E/P” [early/presser], “P” [presser], and “S” [sustained {closer}]) and see if more weight affects speed horses and closers differently as well as the effect on synthetic and turf races, which more typically feature late runs.

That will have to wait, though, as the goal today is to figure out how the extra seven pounds could affect Withers Stakes winner Samraat and Don Rickles-Miracle Wood dual Stakes winner Extrasexyhippzster in a Gotham Stakes (click for free Brisnet.com Ultimate PPs with comments) in which nine of their opponents will carry 116 pounds with Futurity Stakes winner In Trouble the lone colt to tote 120.

Uncle Sigh was just one length behind Samraat in the Withers but now gets seven pounds from that foe. That seems punitive to me in a race for $500,000 that could make or break a horse’s Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands chances.

I’m not opposed to picking horses giving weight, but the issue in the Gotham is that both Samraat and Extrasexyhippzster figure to take money, and I definitely view their imposts as a negative. On the plus side, they’re both drawn well (outside posts [8+] have won 16% of races going 1 1/16 miles on the inner with an impact value of 1.60) and “E” or “E/P” running styles, as Samraat and Extrasexyhippzster are, respectively, have won a combined 58% of races at the track and distance this meeting.

But they will have company on the front end from the inside probably from the word go, and while extra weight plus a wide trip is neither sexy nor hip, it could ster the pot enough to set up for a closer.

I.e. I recognize that a closing running style is a handicap just as extra weight is but given all the dynamics of the race (including expected prices), I prefer Financial Mogul and Harpoon in this spot.

The toughest question for the 348 people still alive for $1-million in the TwinSpires.com Road to the Kentucky Derby SHOWdown game is not who to pick to win but who to pick to show. It’s a deep field, which is my way of saying a horse can run well and still be only 3rd or 4th.

If I were able to play then I’d be one of the 625 people tied with four correct after tabbing General a Rod in the Fountain of Youth but whiffing with Rise Up in the Risen Star last week. For those who are there, that’s not a bad place to be, as you’re still eligible to win Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks tickets as well as a share in the $10,000 consolation prize pool if you hit the Derby.

So my pick to go five-for-six is HARPOON.

Also of note is there are four Twitter users still alive in the @twinspires #tsSHOWdown game for $500. Check the hashtag to see who @cheryl_sz, @JBOswald68, @fakemaven, and @rsamaroo46 pick in the Gotham!

16 Comments

Leave a Comment:

Mary Zinke

I hadn't noticed the weights til you mentioned them, Ed. 2,1a,8,10 Gotham.

I like Canzoni in the Battaglia. 3,8 are my top picks. 3,8,2,11. Probably the 6 should be used, too.

01 Mar 2014 12:16 PM
Secretariat

Weight?

Are you kidding me? These horses nowadays do not know what weight is. All we have today is "milers" with no stamina. Look at your Grade I stakes races. They have been cutting back the distances consistently for 40 years now. Now wonder why we don't have a triple crown winner.

01 Mar 2014 12:58 PM
Carlos in Cali

Harpoon for the win.

01 Mar 2014 4:17 PM
Ranagulzion

The saying goes that "weight will stop a train" but I think that the Samraat 'express' will keep rolling to victory at these weights and distance.

01 Mar 2014 4:30 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Interest head to head battles from pairs of 3 yos this season, with Wildcat Red/General A and Samraat/Uncle Sigh.

01 Mar 2014 4:52 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Patent did not handle his Lasix debut well - on edge,  which was not my vision,  or theirs I imagine.

Excellent day for Kevin.

01 Mar 2014 5:56 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Forgot what floor I was on...wanted the basement and got the roof

01 Mar 2014 6:00 PM
Kevin

Rolling over yesterday's winnings to the #4 in the 3d at GP.  Hoping for 2-1.  

02 Mar 2014 10:32 AM
Kevin

Well, the #4 scratched.  Guess I actually make a profit this weekend.

02 Mar 2014 12:19 PM
Rusty Weisner

Kevin,

I didn't want the risk of any taint on your weekend after your tour de force yesterday, so I made some calls to some people at Gulfstream.

02 Mar 2014 2:57 PM
Kevin

Rusty; funny!

02 Mar 2014 3:35 PM
Sail On

I do believe weight is a factor, and that makes Samraat's win all that more impressive!

02 Mar 2014 4:46 PM
Rusty Weisner

I believe weight's a factor, but I don't know how to weigh it and basically discard it.  It's clearly a factor, otherwise bugs wouldn't win at such a high rate....But that might just mean that the connections consider it a factor.

02 Mar 2014 5:37 PM
KY VET

The human head weighs about 8 lbs.............coldcuts' about 12 oz............................

03 Mar 2014 9:34 PM
Brontexx

KY VET let me borrow the style of one of your arch enemies to copy what you wrote March 3 at 9:34PM

The human head weighs about 8 lbs.............coldcuts' about 12 oz............................

How much you figure Andrew Beyers head weighs or how about where Gary Stevens hat holder comes in at on the scale.

05 Mar 2014 6:49 PM
Kevin

Participating in the Twinspires players pool trying to get the GP Pick Rainbow Pick 6.  I keep telling myself not to do this, as I"ve never agreed with how they compile their tickets or the horses they pick.  They have $25K to try to hit today's ticket.  

Just for giggles, I compiled my own ticket ($204) below, before scratches are listed.  But I'm anticipating rain, off turf, and lots of scracthes.

Race 5) All

Race 6) 2,5,8,9

Race 7) 1,4,5,8

Race 8) All

Race 9) 12

Race 10) 10

Definitely not a day that there will be a single winner, but one or two mild upsets and 6 of 6 will still pay over $1,500.

06 Mar 2014 9:11 AM

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