Belmont 146 Selections

By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman")

In the weeks following California Chrome’s victory in the Preakness Stakes (gr. I), I have been reluctantly searching for a horse that could deny him a Triple Crown victory in the Belmont Stakes. It seemed like a sensible thing to do. After all, no horse has swept the Triple Crown since Affirmed in 1978, and we have seen many talented horses fall short in the Belmont after entering the race as seemingly unbeatable favorites.

But as the Belmont has drawn closer, my views have changed. I honestly believe that this will be the year the Triple Crown drought comes to an end. Instead of weakening under the strain of his Triple Crown run, California Chrome seems to be getting stronger. The reports on his recent training have been extremely positive. He has gained weight since the Preakness.

We know that he’s fit, and he has the foundation. He has enough tactical speed to seize the initiative and secure the early lead if jockey Victor Espinoza so desires. He’s tractable enough to take back off the lead and track the pace if someone else wants to set the pace. The acceleration he has demonstrated when turning for home has been amazing. Plus, he will be able to save ground all the way while breaking from post two.

In short, I believe history will be made on Saturday. I believe California Chrome will win the Triple Crown.

So having made this decision, my thoughts turned to the superfecta. I have not had much luck separating the remainder of the Belmont Stakes contenders, as I feel that most—if not all—are capable of hitting the board on their best day.

But that said, I do feel very confident that Wicked Strong will hit the board, and I’m thinking of building a superfecta around this opinion. Two starts back, he romped to a 3 ½-length victory in the Wood Memorial (gr. I), and while that victory was far and above the best performance of his career, he vindicated his performance with a strong fourth-place effort in Kentucky Derby (gr. I). In the Derby, he wound up further back than expected after stumbling at the start and encountering trouble in the run to the first turn. As if that wasn’t enough, he ran into traffic in the homestretch, making it all the more impressive that he got up to finish fourth. Three solid workouts since then signal that he is ready to roll on Saturday, and don’t forget, he broke his maiden at Belmont as a two-year-old.

So based on my opinions that California Chrome will win the Belmont and Wicked Strong will hit the board, I started to make decisions on which other horses to include in my superfecta. The first to be added was Ride On Curlin, runner-up behind California Chrome in the Preakness. The son of Curlin possesses good tactical speed coupled with an excellent closing kick, and—like California Chrome—he seems to be training well in the lead-up to the Belmont. In addition, he ran great at Belmont Park in last year’s Champagne Stakes (gr. I), closing rapidly to finish third behind the talented colts Havana and Honor Code.

Believe it or not, the next horse I added was the strongly-bred longshot Matuszak. Based on his race record to date, it’s difficult to envision him hitting the board in the Belmont. However, he has trained very well during the last month, and trainer Bill Mott is confident that Matuszak is ready to run the race of his life on Saturday. What sealed the deal for me was the news that Mott had secured Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith to ride Matuszak in the Belmont. For me, this is a very encouraging sign.

General a Rod had a horrific trip in the Preakness Stakes, getting trapped behind a fading Ria Antonia just when the real running began on the far turn. He went from three lengths back after six furlongs to ten lengths back at the stretch call, yet somehow re-rallied in the final furlong to just miss finishing third. In the past, General a Rod has flashed good early speed, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see him right near the lead in the Belmont. From there, I believe his pedigree (by Roman Ruler out of a Dynaformer mare) can carry him farther than most of his rivals.

Commanding Curve overcame a slow pace to finish second in the Kentucky Derby, and while the similarities between this colt and 2013 Derby runner-up Golden Soul are striking—which leads one to wonder if Commanding Curve will run as poorly in this year’s Belmont as Golden Soul did last year—I believe that Commanding Curve is a better horse than Golden Soul, and much more likely to repeat his Derby effort in Belmont.

Rounding out my primary superfecta horses are Commissioner, runner-up in the Peter Pan Stakes (gr. II) last time out, and Samraat, who finished fifth in the Derby after challenging California Chrome on the far turn. Both colts have experience at Belmont Park, and should find themselves pretty close to the early lead. I am particularly intrigued by Commissioner, who is strongly bred and reminds me a great deal of 2010 Belmont Stakes winner Drosselmeyer. He should appreciate the twelve-furlong distance better than most.

The final horses I will use in my superfecta are Tonalist and Medal Count. Tonalist won a sloppy-track edition of the Peter Pan Stakes with a strong Beyer speed figure, but will have to break from post eleven, and could potentially get hung wide throughout the race. In addition, he has been dealing with some hoof issues, so that’s another concern.

As for Medal Count, he ran a deceptively strong eighth in the Kentucky Derby despite being bumped hard and forced to check at the eighth pole. His pedigree is as strong as any, but given that all of his best races have come on turf, synthetic, or the Churchill Downs dirt—a dirt track that turf/synthetic horses tend to enjoy—I have the feeling that this may not be Medal Count’s day to shine.

So taking all of this into consideration, I have constructed a trio of superfecta tickets that do rely on California Chrome winning and Wicked Strong hitting the board, but also allow for some surprising longshot candidates to sneak into the second, third or fourth positions. Here are my tickets:

TICKET #1

2
9
4-5-6-7-8-10
1-4-5-6-7-8-10-11

TICKET #2

2
4-5-6-7-8-10
9
1-4-5-6-7-8-10-11

TICKET #3

2
4-5-6-7-8-10
1-4-5-6-7-8-10-11
9

Good luck to all!

331 Comments

Leave a Comment:

mz

I know it's not about the Belmont but the most obvious hunch bet of the day will be Normandy Invasion in the Metropolitan.

How can you not bet him the day after the 70th anniversary of DDay?

05 Jun 2014 2:10 PM
JSS

I enjoy your writings, Keelerman.  Thanks.  

That said, I believe you meant to key California Chrome  (#2) and not Matterhorn (#3).  

05 Jun 2014 2:43 PM
JerseyBoy

I take Ride On Curlin to put an end to this run by California Chrome.

This is based purely on principle.

I will say why if the favorite loses.

05 Jun 2014 2:52 PM
Rusty Weisner

A horse called Eastwood is entered in the True North stakes tomorrow and in the 13th race, an allowance, Saturday.  I will think of singling him if he runs Saturday.  In Trouble is running in the same race.

05 Jun 2014 3:14 PM
Secreteriat

Keelerman,

Calif. Chrome is 2 . Make sure you bet the correct numbers.

05 Jun 2014 3:25 PM
Woodsgirl

You mean number 2, not 3, on top...right? 😊

05 Jun 2014 3:32 PM
-Keelerman

Whoops! Yes, I meant to have #2 on top, not #3. I'm not sure how I managed to typo that! Thanks for catching it, JSS, Secreteriat, and Woodsgirl!

05 Jun 2014 3:53 PM
specks

keelerman watchout for those fraudain slips; i believe da tara was a f.s.

05 Jun 2014 4:27 PM
Brontexx

Matterhorn is the 3 and is it me or dosent he remind you of Danza on paper.

05 Jun 2014 4:59 PM
sceptre

Classiest field on Belmont's Saturday's card is, without a doubt, the Woody Stephens. Social Inclusion would have had an easier time in The Belmont.  

05 Jun 2014 5:17 PM
Carlos in Cali

California Chrome has the most "natural" speed in the race, so if he catches a flyer like he did in the San Felipe I have no doubt he can wire the field with reasonable splits,of course. With that being said,because of his PP- I think they put Tonalist on the lead giving Cali Chrome a target to run down which I think he actually thrives on by the way he accelerates away from the pack heading into the stretch.

I was real high on Commissioner at the beginning of the year when he beat the "other" highly regarded Shug horse who's name has slipped my mind.... yeah,him. Then after his even run in the FOY I posted he'd be a fine candidate for the Belmont because of his breeding and even-paced running style- so here we are. I'll wheel him underneath along with ROC then ALL for the 4th-spot in my exotics.

Keelerman- I think we will see a spectacular performance from the newly crowned TRIPLE CROWN CHAMPION- who,as mentioned by many,seems to be doing  better than ever.  

btw:  GO.KINGS.GO! Bring that Cali-Chrome Stanley Cup Home!

"So,let it be written- So,let it be told"!!

Can't Wait!!!

05 Jun 2014 5:35 PM
tjconway

You just lost money trying to beat mathematics. Congrats!

05 Jun 2014 6:50 PM
Rusty Weisner

Keelerman,

Give me something on Stephanie's Kitten I can use.

If I play a P4 I don't want to go beyond the three obvious, which should cover the classy speed and the two classy closers, though the outmatched Somali Lemonade looks primed to try to steal it.

I am having a real hard time with both the Met Mile and the Manhattan.  

In the Met Mile, I don't like the post for Palace Malice, Normandy Invasion actually did have an injury, and Goldencents has a six-month layoff.

In the Manhattan I don't feel real strong about either of the favorites, Imagining or Seek Again.  That was Imagining's first GI, and he got it stealing it in a six-horse field.  

05 Jun 2014 6:53 PM
Rusty Weisner

Brontexx,

Matterhorn looks terrible.  Danza had better 2-yo form and his 7f race at least looks like some kind of prep in hindsight.

One of the things I don't like about Tonalist, by the way, except for getting a high figure in a small field in the slop, is his pairing with Commissioner, who has just been slow. If you like Tonalist it seems you have to at least like Commissioner a little.

05 Jun 2014 6:58 PM
Ranagulzion

Jersey Boy:

California Chrome's greatest/only danger is Wicked Strong. Ride On Curlin maxed out in the Preakness and will not hit the board ...the 12 furlongs is too far for him in present company, based on his pedigree. Commissioner, General a Rod, Commanding Curve and Tonalist are the likely ones staying on for the minor placings.

05 Jun 2014 9:58 PM
-Keelerman

Rusty Weisner;

I really like the chances of Stephanie's Kitten in the Just a Game Stakes. I thought that her eighth-place finish in the Jenny Wiley Stakes last time out was exceptional, given that it was her first start in 8 1/2 months and that she was only beaten 3 1/4 lengths. I wouldn't want to single her by any means, but if I end up playing the pick four, I certainly wouldn't want to leave her off.

The Manhattan Handicap looks like a tough race. I haven't given it a super close look yet, but at first glance, I can envision six or seven of different horses winning. I will definitely be using Kaigun, especially if he stays at around 15-1, and Rookie Sensation looks intriguing as well.

On a side note, you mentioned on the last thread that you don't use Beyer speed figures in turf races. I find that very interesting, because I don't use them in turf races either!

05 Jun 2014 10:02 PM
Secreteriat

My insurance bet if CC fails to hold on.

$20 Super Box 9-8-1-2

05 Jun 2014 10:09 PM
Coldfacts

Rusty Weisner,

“except for getting a high figure in a small field in the slop”

Tonalist was the only horse that got a high figure in the Peter Pan. However, the opportunity for same was available to all. How much did the small field and slop contribute to his performance? What prevented his opponents from being more competitive?

Are you suggesting that for Tonalist to reproduce his Peter Pan effort the same scenarios have to be present? Let’s set the records straight.

Tonalist’s record in his 4 starts when compared to CC1 first 4 starts, is cheese to chalk.

CC1 contested two 4.5F and two 5.5F F races in his first 4 starts. He won one of each and was off the board in one. Tonalist contested two 9F, one 8.5F and an 8F race in his first four starts. He won both 9F starts and was on the board in the others. CC1 finished 6th in his graded stakes debut whereas Tonalist won his over a distance 2F longer.

There can be no doubt which colt has the more impressive first four. CC1 breakout race came in the Cal Derby against State breds. He then move on to Derby and Preakness glory. Why shouldn’t the Peter Pan be seen as Tonalist’s breakout race from which he can likewise move on to greater achievements.

If CC1 was capable of building on a rather modest foundation, the sky has to be the limit for Tonalist as he certainly has shown more credentials then CC1 in his four starts.

05 Jun 2014 11:07 PM
Monarchos Matt

Rusty and Keelerman,

I stared at the undercard for so long today that now I think I've out-thought myself. But here's where I'm at, with all of tomorrow to finalize.

Just A Game- I don't like Stephanie's Kitten or Better Lucky here. Stephanie's Kitten just isn't right, she was dead last in the Jenny Wiley off an injury-related layoff. Also, keep in mind she is one that has benefited from a fast pace in her victories and she won't get that here at all. Better Lucky tuned up off a long layoff with a 7f poly race to prep for this? No thanks. My top pick beat her last winter at 8f anyway. Certainly would not be a surprise to see either of them win but considering their current form and the fact that they will take heavy action based on occupying the exacta last year, I'm inclined to look elsewhere...the race only has two true speed horses and they should dictate the pace and control the race. They've shown sharper form in 2014 by any measure, Beyers, wins, whatever. They are Discreet Marq and Somali Lemonade.

DIscreet Marq is a stunning 3/5 at Belmont and hasn't finished worse than 2nd in 8 straight races. She's a single for me in the Pick 4. Add Somali Lemonade. who shows a field high last out Beyer of 100 and has been a different horse since changing her running style to the lead, and Coffee Clique, who seems to be rounding into form, for a 3 horse exacta box.

Met Mile- Palace Malice is a must use, but can't be singled at those odds from the rail. As I've gone on at length, my sleeper horse is Shakin It Up. I've cooled a bit on Central Banker, as Rusty pointed out, he's never won beyond 7f, and the more I look at it, his Derby Day win looks flukey. That leaves me with a trio of last year's 3 yo, Moreno, Normandy Invasion and Goldencents. Moreno runs back pretty quickly here but also cuts back in distance; remember, he's a Ghostzapper colt, a real hard-knocker that almost always blazes the opening 8f and rarely holds on. This might be the perfect spot for him. Normandy Invasion always struck me as more of a finesse-type 9f colt; I was never dazzled by his pure speed, and he was no match for Palace Malice in his last at this distance, and he's had a long layoff since that race. Speaking of layoffs, Goldencents hasn't raced in a half year following a clunker in the Cigar Mile, and isn't this an awfully tough spot to do it? I lean towards Moreno of the three. Maybe an exacta box with those three or a trifecta key adding a few more, but those three look like the most usable in the Pick 4.

Manhattan- Just like in the Just A Game, I see a severe lack of pace here. When Little Mike and Skyring were in the mix, I was ready to play hard against Imagining. Now I feel almost exactly the opposite, and the more I look at his PPs, he doesn't HAVE to be on the lead anyway. He'll get a ground saving trip from the rail, which has been a fine place to be at BEL, and won't get any pressure except from a couple of horses waaaay outside that have never gone beyond 8f (read: cheap speed), one of which the trainer admitted that the horse has no business in the race (Chamois).

Seek Again needs to improve in terms of speed, but if I'm wrong and the race breaks down on the front end, he seems as logical as any to pick up the pieces with his tactical stalking style, and he's won at this distance before. Grandeur was my 2nd place pick in last year's Arlington Million (luckily I had Real Solution 3rd and The Apache 4th so I hit my 4 horse exacta box, barely), and I'm still waiting for him to show me something. Perhaps first time Lasix, he'll get up for the win here, but I still feel like his running style needs more ground than 10f, especially in a race like this one where the pace isn't exactly going to be grueling up front. Real Solution is my boy. I'll probably structure a trifecta with those four and add Kaigun underneath, I like him most of the "never ran beyond 9f but always closing hard" horses, of which our old friend Pete Denk's pick, Rookie Sensation, also qualifies.

But, I'm only planning to use the two favorites here for the win in the Pick 4. Boring, I know.

Belmont- using Wicked Strong, Cali Chrome and Ride on Curlin. More on that tomorrow.

06 Jun 2014 12:12 AM
Little Bill

Tonalist is a real one. I'm so not worried about him running his race. Good enough, we'll see. He doesn't need to out break everybody, just get position and wait for them to quit, and they will. I don't have him on top but I think he'll be there.  

06 Jun 2014 1:32 AM
Coldfacts

Ranagulzion,

Be very careful with what you post regarding ROC. He is tail descendant of Mr. Prospector and they own the Belmont with 15 victories n the last 22 renewals.

I believe his connections should have skipped the Preakness. Irrespective, he is game and always tries.

"California Chrome's greatest/only danger is Wicked Strong"

Wicked Strong was defeated by Tonalist at Gulfstream Park. They both won 9F races in their next starts. Wicked Strong won under an all drive and Tonalist in hand. The most dangerous racehorse is the one with speed and the capacity to carry over a distance of ground.

Research the multi-millionaire Marsh Side who was produced from a Pleasant Colony mare and you will see just how much Tonalist is suited to 12F.

06 Jun 2014 7:05 AM
Coldfacts

("Keelerman")

You are a very brave punter. You are planning to key/wheel CC1 on top. History suggests it a bad wager. This is the most competitive Belmont field in recent history from a quality and stamina perspective. The favorites have been defected in 16 of the last 20 renewals with many of the fields lacking in quality.

The two horses that finished 2nd to CC1 in the Derby and Preakness are yet to win a graded stakes. This means that the graded stakes winners he has faced have not run to expectation. He now meet some who are fresher and some with home court advantage.

He won the Preakness by 1 1/2L over an opponent that was 9L off the pace and who lost ground on the turn. In the Derby that opponent finished behind several he now faces.

You are certainly brave.

06 Jun 2014 7:21 AM
Brontexx

Rusty Weisner Matterhorn broke his maiden in his first race and his competition hasnt been bad.Hes on the inside and he has more inclination to run early than the other of the long shots Matuszak.I would venture to say if Pletcher gives the jockey instructions he will be forwardly placed.Pletchers other entrant is being given a better chance than this one but Im not so sure.

06 Jun 2014 7:33 AM
Rusty Weisner

The kiss of death! Andrew Beyer has picked Wicked Strong, again.  I like Andrew Beyer, but his column today was bad.  He described CC as "tiring" in the Preakness and faulted him for only winning by a length and a half.  Even I saw the jockey looking back and standing in the irons in real time!  It was clear then that Sherman thought he had a Triple Crown winner.

06 Jun 2014 7:42 AM
Brontexx

If you wanna talk Mr Prospector Coldfacts you gotta include Matterhorn.

06 Jun 2014 7:42 AM
Rusty Weisner

Keelerman,

Re: turf races.  Besides the obviously different style of races there are all sorts of other variables: inner and outer turf courses, where the rail is, etc., plus there usually aren't enough on a card to have a good sample size.  Glad to see you're a bit baffled on the Manhattan, too.  

06 Jun 2014 7:51 AM
Rusty Weisner

I am keeping an eye on two horses entered in the 13th tomorrow: Eastwood and Confrontation, who were a nose apart behind Salutos Amigos.  Eastwood is entered in a G2 today.  In Trouble comes back from the La Derby as the favorite here.  

06 Jun 2014 7:56 AM
Ranagulzion

Coldfacts:

Tonalist won on a sloppy surface for which his pedigree suggested he'd relish. I know that the dam ide of his pedigree will help him at 12 furlongs but with sire Tapit on top it is still a question mark in a truly run Grade one race ...therefore how can you be so confident about him?

Regarding Ride On Curlin, I think that Storm Cat as broodmare sire overrides the influences of Mr Prospector in the tail of the pedigree ...we'll see ...there are others better suited to the distance and pedigree matters, big time, in the Belmont Stakes.

06 Jun 2014 8:02 AM
Brontexx

Looking at the morning line odds and all the facts on paper Matterhorn looks much better than Matuszak.

06 Jun 2014 8:15 AM
Rusty Weisner

Keelerman,

My question about Stephanie's Kitten was whether to keep her, not whether to single her.  Last time she had a dull effort like that it was followed by a six-month layoff.

06 Jun 2014 8:29 AM
Pedigree Ann

Coldfacts - I have to hand it to you. Extrapolating from unlike situations to reach an indefensible conclusion. Chrome still has a 5-month start on him in becoming a tough and battle-hardened racehorse.

06 Jun 2014 9:00 AM
Brontexx

Tonalist has to attempt to get to the rail,because if CC is allowed to dictate the pace 1. It will be a slow pace 2. If it is too slow it will be over after 6 furlongs, just like the trainer of Seattle Slew said it was for that ones Belmont.

I also believe the colts that start near CC with any kind of tactical speed and it could include all of them posts 1,3,4 will follow CC, if another colt dosent take the inititive and make the pace.Even if one does break and take the lead CC has an x on his back and at 12 furlongs his spurt away from the pack after about a mile wont render the rest unable to catch him with another half mile to go.

I think its very obvious that CC is the BEST but I think his campaign and the distance will require bettors to keep an open mind and not think he is guaranteed even a spot in the super as opposed to the Preakness where I thought he was a lock and I only bet the Double with CC in the second leg.

06 Jun 2014 9:22 AM
TnT

I think the "just a Game is the hardest race of the day, I give anyone of 8 horses a chance.

Be careful singling Stephanie's kitten, she runs better with some give in the ground, as do half the field.

Just noticed 20-1 Unlimited Budget had a fast Turf workout on the on June 1st, she's a good filly maybe turf will bring her back to form, after the ridiculous idea of throwing her in the Belmont last year.

Strathnaver is also good value at 20-1, came a very close 4th on poly in her only start this year. Not often you see a Motion horse at those odds on Turf.

Discreet Marq is a miler and his a great record at Belmont, I think she is the one to beat.

My pick was Waterway Run, based on her lighter weight impost and form……but not so sure now.

06 Jun 2014 9:38 AM
-Keelerman

Brontexx;

I do see the similarities between Matterhorn and Danza, and I'm actually starting to wonder if Matterhorn might be sitting on a good effort this Saturday. He's likely to be 40-1 or more, and it's not very often that one can get that kind of price on a well-regarded Todd Pletcher colt.

I really like your thoughts on the potential pace scenario, and I agree that if Tonalist doesn't take the race to California Chrome in the opening furlongs, the race might be over after six furlongs. Do you think General a Rod will attempt to out-run Tonalist early, and possibly set up a three-way battle for the lead between himself, California Chrome, and Tonalist?

06 Jun 2014 9:39 AM
Coldfacts

Ranagulzion,

If you are of the opinion that Tonalist is likely to bounce off his Peter Pan effort, that is quite likely. However, I doubt it based on his trainer.

If you are also of the opinion that Tapit is unlikely to sire a 12F Classic winner then that's where we part company. My beef with Tapit is that he is overbred each year. However, he won the Wood closing from last. Lucky Pulpit won at 5 1/2F. Tapit's dam sire won the Derby and BCC. His 2nd was sired by 1970 British TC winner Nijinsky.

If Tonalist moves forward after his Peter Pan effort as I fully expect, he will be the horse to beat.

He is over 17 hands and size matter most time. He a big colt will extremely long stride and he is able to effortlessly split 23, 46 1:10 and then re-break after a mile in 1:35. His best is yet to come. We have seen the best of CC1.

06 Jun 2014 9:46 AM
TnT

Keerlerman, who's your pick for the Epsom Derby on Saturday ?

I like the other O'brien horse - GEOFFREY CHAUCER

06 Jun 2014 9:50 AM
Monarchos Matt

Just A Game-

I'm planning to single Discreet Marq here. She's 3/5 lifetime at BEL and has finished 2nd or better in 8 straight races. Somali Lemonade is the only other speed here, shows a field high last out Beyer of 100 and can be used in exactas. Stephanie's Kitten seems off form, although certainly has the class to contend, especially if the turf comes up less than firm. Better Lucky prepped for this with a 7f poly race, odd...might be worth trying to keep last year's exacta out of this year's at these odds? Coffee Clique appears to be one on the rise but I have class questions...

06 Jun 2014 9:53 AM
Brontexx

Keelerman you know as well as I that these animals roam in a pack in the wild.I believe if one of the outside colts such as Tonalist breaks well or is sent by his connections, A-Rod could follow him over to the rail crossing infront of the entire field.

In that sense Wicked Strong could track those two and secure a spot right in the middle where I think most of the field will run.I dont think they will be spread out very much from front to back.

06 Jun 2014 9:55 AM
Rusty Weisner

Any guesses as to tactics of Napravnik/A Rod?  I prefer him laying off the pace.

06 Jun 2014 10:09 AM
Rusty Weisner

Monarchos Matt,

I have the same reservations about SK.  And, no the turf won't be anything other than firm.  

06 Jun 2014 10:14 AM
Brontexx

Rusty Weisner What pace with the defection of SI,we will find out if a slow hare but quick can out run a turtle over a LONG ROUTE.

06 Jun 2014 10:15 AM
Brontexx

Bob Baffert thinks if CC breaks well he wins,I agree with that on its own, but if the pace is slow enuff that could allow the slow pokes to be within striking distance where as any quick move to get on even terms with CC by two or more colts could bring the trip issues into play boxing,stumbling etc.

06 Jun 2014 10:19 AM
Brontexx

If another colt dosent take the inititive and take the front CC and rider Espinosa will have his work cut out as this will be very much a jockeys race.

06 Jun 2014 10:22 AM
JJs Rocket

Selection Time

I will be building my ticket around Wicked Strong in the win position and California Chrome in the 2nd,3rd and 4th positions. I will use smaller saver tickets with the CC on top. I will be betting some other tickets close to the race as im basically a value investor. The longshots I like are Commissioner, GAR and Samaraat. I will be tossing Medal Count ( his best chance was in the derby ), Tonalist ( good horse, wise guy horse but way overbet here I think ), and Matuszak ( wanted to include but in too deep here ). I changed my mind on Commissioner as he has the best pedigree to get a mile and a half in my opinion. Also I think he would of got closer to Tonalist if he would of come out off the rail down the stretch, he move out a little towards the end. Tonalist has bad feet and the tapit distance factor. Im sure some of those other siblings had good breeding on the dam side and they didn't win over a mile and an eighth. GAR will be on a lot of my tickets underneath also.

Main Tickets

9 W 2,8,10 W 2,8,10 W 2,8,10

9 W 2 W 4,5,7,8,10 W 7,8,10

9 W 4,5,7,8,10 W 2 W 7,8,10

9 W 4,5,7,8,10 W 7,8,10 W 2

Will also be betting the tris with same theory in mind. I will make a large tri bet with 9 W 2 W 8,10 and 9 W 8,10 W 2. Good luck to everyone and I will probably post some picks on the earlier races on the card before the races.

06 Jun 2014 10:23 AM
JerseyBoy

Ranagulzion:

Remember, I judge horses by their performance, not their pedigree.

But what is the problem with the pedigree of Ride On Curlin?

His sire won the Belmont. His maternal grandsire sired a Belmont winner, Tabasco Cat.

Storm Cat also sired a Belmont runner-up in Vision and Verse.

Ride on Curlin is also inbred to Northern Dancer.

After you answer that question, look into the pedigree of Dawn Approach who is by Galileo’s son Epsom Derby winner New Approach, out of a mare by a sprinter. Dawn Approach was a miler.

Next, look into the pedigree of Magician who is by Galileo out of a mare sired by a sprinter. Magician won the Breeders’ Cup Turf.

After all that, look into the pedigree of speedball Song and explain how he was a speedball descended from your favorite reference Hyperion.

It is not the pedigree but the performance that matters.

06 Jun 2014 10:27 AM
Secreteriat

Coldfacts

I was so high on Tonelist, I had him in the Derby Future with CC in the exacta for  more than 2Gs. I also picked him on top as an alternate to CC until I saw pp 11. That troubles me. He is a Tapit and will be closest to 110K screaming in front of the gate. He also had some foot issues so I will use him in 3rd and 4th. Good Luck

06 Jun 2014 10:28 AM
-Keelerman

Rusty Weisner;

I figured you wouldn't be singling Stephanie's Kitten in a pick four -- my only point was that, while I like her chances a great deal, I myself wouldn't be singling her. But as TnT pointed out, Stephanie's Kitten may be better with a bit of give in the ground, and as Monarchos Matt pointed out, there may not be much early pace to set up Stephanie's Kitten's late run, so this might not be the most likely place for her to rebound. That said, my hope is that her eighth-place finish in the Jenny Wiley will cause her odds to drift well above 4-1, making her a more playable option despite the question marks.

I also think TnT may be on to something with Unlimited Budget, and I'll be giving her a closer look.

06 Jun 2014 10:42 AM
-Keelerman

TnT;

I admit that this isn't the most creative selection, but I think Australia is going to romp in the Epsom Derby. Aidan O'Brien believes Australia is the best horse he has ever trained, and I thought Australia's third-place finish in the 2,000 Guineas was exceptional. It should be a great race! Good luck!

06 Jun 2014 10:48 AM
Rusty Weisner

I don't see any P3's or P4's I like or even doubles on either side of the Belmont Stakes.

Belmont Stakes:

$160:

$100 W Wicked Strong

$20 straight ex WS/CC

$10 tri key WS/CC,ARod

$10 tri key CC/WS,ARod

06 Jun 2014 11:59 AM
Rusty Weisner

The Wood was the strongest prep race, with three Derby starters, two of whom finished 4th and 5th in the Derby, and the 3rd place finisher in the Preakness.

06 Jun 2014 12:08 PM
Rusty Weisner

Add these $1 keyed supers:

WS/CC,AR,(MC,ROC,CC2)

CC/WS,AR,(MC,ROC,CC2)

And to make it an even $200: $4 WS-AR straight exacta.

06 Jun 2014 12:11 PM
JayJay

Already played my superfecta ticket :

2 with 8,10 with 7,8,9,10,11 with 7,9,10,11

2 with 7,8 with 7,8,10 with 7,8,10,11

Also played the TN/Met Double :  $10   4/4

Had to leave the track to check in but I'll play another superfecta when I get back.   I'm going to add Matterhorn on the bottom of  my superfecta, he's one I'm kind of intrigued about, he's overmatched but I get this nagging feeling he might hit the board at huge price.

I'm also going to play a $2 trifecta with ROC and Commissioner, only because JV knows this track.  If he can win the Belmont with a miler, he might get a little bit out of ROC to get up for 2nd  :  2 with 5,8 with 5,8

Back to the track...this place is huge...  

06 Jun 2014 1:55 PM
Rusty Weisner

This Ghurair in R12 looks beatable.  European class, second Lasix, Chad brown, dropping to allowance ranks...but just did nothing in the Ft. Marcy.  

06 Jun 2014 3:44 PM
Coldfacts

Curlin finished 2nd in the Belmont.

06 Jun 2014 4:04 PM
Rusty Weisner

Got a comment whacked:

I'll take Palace Malice, after all.  I have more reservations about his contenders than about his post, and his last two have been glorified workouts.  I'll take everyone's word that this is the big show for him.  I'll single him in an inexpensive P4 with Wicked Strong singled and ALL in the Manhattan.  If I lose that I'll play him in the P3.  In the first leg I'm going to be a little more brash than I had originally intended:  I'll take the two speed, Discreet Marq and Somali Lemonade and leave out SK and Get Lucky.  SL looks like she will try to steal it as she's done in her three races since getting blinkers.  Discreet Marq should run her down, but maybe she'll set an easy pace.  

06 Jun 2014 4:06 PM
JerseyBoy

About Ride On Curlin,I wrote:

"His sire won the Belmont"

Curlin actually finished 2nd to Rags To Riches.

Must have been the effects of painting the exterior.

06 Jun 2014 4:44 PM
Little Bill

True North- Only two closers in with a group that all like the front. I'll try Palace to close at currently 9-1.

06 Jun 2014 5:15 PM
Pedigree Ann

Little Bill, good call.

There seem to be several of the one-turn races tomorrow that are full of speed. Heck, in the Phipps, almost all them want to be up close, except the Princess. What happens when Close Hatches, Beholder, and a couple of those longshots want to run in front early? Do they set it up for the Princess?

There are a fair number of colts in the Woody Stevens (aka the Riva Ridge) who have front running speed. Will that set it up for one of the closers? Kobe's Back, Spot, and Coup de Grace (who discovered last out that he runs well from the back), and maybe Tonito, who ran okay in his first US race.

We'll have to see how the track is playing. Sometimes Belmont lets horses go in 22 44 and still hold on to the wire.

06 Jun 2014 6:00 PM
Rusty Weisner

Little Bill,

That was some pick with Palace.  

06 Jun 2014 6:02 PM
Secreteriat

Rosario drops Roc for  Tonalist.

What does that tell YOU?

11 post is troubling for me but good enough for 2nd.

My final Bet

$100 Tri CC w Tonealist Commis w same + WICKED

Victor bring him first and safe.

Best of Luck All!

06 Jun 2014 6:02 PM
Rusty Weisner

Eastwood did pretty well as the longest shot on the board.  I'll be high on Confrontation now in tomorrow's R13.

06 Jun 2014 6:05 PM
Little Bill

Thanks Ann and Rusty. I agree in regards to closing at Belmont. Dropping out of it is tough to make up. I like Princess in her race but she's probably going to run a father than some. C. H. for one.

06 Jun 2014 6:48 PM
JerseyBoy

I will bet on Ride On Curlin. But the horse I dread most is Medal Count on the rail.

06 Jun 2014 7:02 PM
Coldfacts

TICKET #1

11

4-9

4-9

1-2-6

TICKET #2

11

1-2-6

4-9

4-9

TICKET #3

11

1-2-6

4-9

1-2-6

06 Jun 2014 8:42 PM
Little Bill

Coldfacts, seems like your missing a ticket. The 1-2-6 can't run third?

06 Jun 2014 8:57 PM
Rusty Weisner

Secreteriat,

To me it's more a negative comment on ROC than a positive one on Tonalist.  My first take on ROC's Preakness was that that was his best shot; Keelerman said he wasn't working well or looking ragged.  Now he's lost his jockey.  I'm dropping that ticket with him.

I'll stick with ARod underneath.  I think he's a pissed off horse.

06 Jun 2014 9:38 PM
Rusty Weisner

Pedigree Ann,

I don't bet a lot on the 3yo fillies.  Whenever I look at the race and look at the running lines it seems most of them like the lead, it's hard for me to tell them apart.  I think you just have to pick the fastest ones; don't ask me how to do that.

06 Jun 2014 9:41 PM
-Keelerman

Little Bill;

Great call on Palace in the True North Handicap! Congratulations!

06 Jun 2014 10:05 PM
-Keelerman

For those who like General a Rod (myself included!), it looks like we'll be getting a decent price tomorrow -- with a bit more than $60,000 in the win pool, he is the tenth choice at 50-1, with only Matterhorn (59-1) at a longer price. General a Rod is also the ninth choice in the Belmont Gold Cup/Belmont Stakes double (there was a bit more than $650,000 in the pool), with only Matuszak and Matterhorn as longer shots.

Here's a link to all of the current odds and double payoffs: www.drf.com/.../california-chrome-early-belmont-favorite-1-2

06 Jun 2014 10:09 PM
Secreteriat

Live in the Belmont/Belmont Double with CC COMM & Wicked

I may be overconfident but I feel California Chrome is like a Ferrari running against Volkswagens.

I am surely setting myself for the Trill of Victory or the Agony of Defeat.

Jay Jay How is the City that never sleeps treating you?

N Y treating you? Enjoy your day and make your bets early. Take home more money than you brought with You!

06 Jun 2014 10:39 PM
Monarchos Matt

Rusty,

I agree that the P4 isn't incredibly appealing. Although, contrary to what I posted earlier, I'm glad that the Phipps isn't part of it...the Phipps will be a great race to watch, but I'm not sure it's even bettable on any level.

So, instead of playing that 5-6-7 Pick 3, I've got a small 5-6 DD that tosses both chalk. I'll play Kobe's Back, Tonito M/ Unbridled Forever, Sweet Reason. Both races appear LOADED with speed (especially the Woody), so the favorites could be vulnerable to a speed duel. Small bet for a pretty big potential payoff using the best closers in each race at 10-1 or higher, and I'll still use the favorites defensively on top in tri part wheels, with place bets on my top picks (Kobe's Back, Unbridled Forever) for hedge/ suicide insurance purposes.

Moving on to the Late Pick 4. Pretty sure I'm going:

Discreet Marq/

Palace Malice, Shakin It Up, (maybe Moreno???)/

Imagining, Grandeur/

CC, Wicked Strong, Ride on Curlin (may trade him for Moreno...)

More to come...

06 Jun 2014 10:51 PM
Rusty Weisner

Keelerman,

I noticed those odds, too.  I don't think this is "smart" money.  I'm taking the odds as a good sign of bettors' ignorance: remember the odds on Palace Malice and Oxbow last year.  Commanding Curve is 6-1, another positive-negative sign.

Where'd I see these odds?  NBCSN.  I've never watched much tv coverage of horse racing.  It's excellent! It's nice to watch horse racing with really high production values. I'll actually be watching the undercard tomorrow on the same channel. Really enjoying it.  

06 Jun 2014 11:14 PM
Secreteriat

Payoffs for double CC 98  Commish 926.00 W/S 926 Tonelist 318

Wish me luck! Not a bad start if it hits.

06 Jun 2014 11:15 PM
Rusty Weisner

Monarchos Matt,

I'll play the P4/P3 with Palace Malice.  I put a little twist in the first leg, taking only the two speediest.

I just watched the True North, which Little Bill pegged.  That sounds like a good bet in the Woody Stephens, Kobe's Back.  I may toss a couple bucks at that.  I agree about races 6 & 7.  Let me know what you think about Confrontation in R13 (see above) and the ML favorite in R12, Ghurair, who I want to beat in a P3.  For the Belmont it's WS/CC/ARod for me.  

06 Jun 2014 11:18 PM
Rusty Weisner

The weather is crystal clear and seasonable here on the East coast.  It really feels like the eve of a Triple Crown victory.

I'll go for the odds, though, and if that doesn't work out hopefully I'll break even with my CC hedges.

06 Jun 2014 11:35 PM
Coldfacts

Secreteriat,

A horse that splits 23, 46, 1:10, 1:35 and comes home in 1:48.30 hand is a Volkswagens. Interesting! Medal Count worked 1:10 before shipping to Belmont and he is Volkswagens as well.

Of the 19 horses that recorded winning times of 1:54 and a bit in the last 40 renewal of the Preakness, CC1 1:54.84 ranks at #19. Assuming all 19 were Ferraris, only 3 of the 19 won the Belmont. Six of the 19 Ferrari recorded times below of 1:53 plus and they were all beaten in the Belmont.

If California Chrome's Preakness time of 1:54.84 makes him a Ferrari, he is the slowest of his category to contest the Belmont in the last 20 renewals.

If faster Ferraris were defeated, why is he an exception?

06 Jun 2014 11:35 PM
Monarchos Matt

Rusty,

I totally agree with you on the Just A Game. As you well know, I LOVE the lone speed angle on short turf races. I'll be playing an exacta box with Somali Lemonade and Discreet Marq in that race as well. Trying to decide if it's worth throwing in the improving Coffee Clique into that box, or keying those two over more underneath...but I really still think the play here is to try to keep last year's exacta OUT of this year's exacta...there isn't much value to adding Better Lucky or Stephanie's Kitten to the two I already like. So I'm imploring myself to maintain a stand and to focus in on the lone speed.

I'll take a look at those later races if I get around to it. I'm still scratching my eyeballs out over this Manhattan, and whether or not Imagining will go with this 8f horse that just freaked last out. Liking the Grandeur first time lasix angle....I'll probably be done betting after the Belmont as I'll have to catch a train back to the city from Arlington Park...and I still have to look over those races too. Going to be a busy one tomorrow!

I'll be keying Wicked Strong on top as well, and if that tri hits, I'll have it...although not for as many units as you, as I'll be spreading it quite a bit deeper in the 3rd spot.

07 Jun 2014 12:16 AM
Ranagulzion

Coldfacts:

You posted "We have seen the best of CC1". Have we really? Lets seeyour response to this particular question after the Belmont Stakes.

Jersey Boy:

I think that you look at pedigree superficially. My analysis takes both performances and pedigree into account. Storm Cat as a broodmare sire is most often a dominant stamina-limiting influence when it comes to route races. That's why I dont fancy the chances of Ride On Curlin to hit the board, going 12 furlongs in a field as strong as this year's Belmont Stakes. He was safely held at bay by California Chrome in the Preakness and could gain no more ground if they ran another circuit of the track that day, and yet you expect him to turn the tables on the dual-classic winner in the Belmont Stakes? Good luck with that my friend.

07 Jun 2014 12:22 AM
KY VET

you'll think im crazy......4,7,9,10,11/2,4,5,7,9,10,11/1,2,4,5,7,8,9,10,11........$315.....plus 2 dollar 11 only on top  $126......441 total......special circumstance.......cha ching!

07 Jun 2014 1:00 AM
predict

Prediction for Belmont R-11 , Belmont Stakes, 6/7/14:

Will play ex,tri box with 5,6&11, not getting the feeling that California Chrome will be in top three, sorry, just not believing it will happen, even though I want to believe. Strong feeling that Matuszak will win. I can't even believe it, but that's what I'm feeling.

Tonalist will run very well, his foot is not an issue for this race, and his class will take him far, while

Ride on Curlin will definitely be in the top three.

Superfecta, box 4,5,6,11. Doubt Commanding Curve will win, but definitely in top 4.

Good Luck everyone,  .... speed is not going to hold up.

07 Jun 2014 3:14 AM
Rusty Weisner

KY VET,

Just when I was following your advice and trying to stick to a few horses you go and write up a crazy ticket like that.  You could lose money if you hit it.

$100 win WS

$20 straight ex WS-CC

$4 straight ex WS-GAR

$10 keyed tris WS/CC-GAR,CC/WS-GAR

$1 keyed supers WS/CC-GAR-CC2,WS/CC-GAR-MC,WS/CC-GAR-ROC,CC/WS-GAR-(CC2,MC,ROC)

07 Jun 2014 7:47 AM
Rusty Weisner

Monarchos Matt,

Grandeur also gets the jockey switch to Stevens from Julien Leparoux - that's after he was beaten tactically in a short six-horse field by Imagining.  I don't feel Imagining is so strong off this effort.  Kaigun at 15-1 after he's been within 2 lengths in two straight G1 races against Wise Dan?  It shows you it's wide open.  I'm not getting cute with this race: ALL.  I will play that exacta in the Just a Game, too.  Very cheap $1 P4 and/or P3 with Palace Malice singled and WS singled in the final leg.  I'm not at so confident about him here because of the post and the field size, but I don't like any of the others (Goldencents - layoff, NI - injury, missed race) enough to go against.  And I like more than a rooting interest in watching Palace Malice.

07 Jun 2014 7:58 AM
Rusty Weisner

Monarchos Matt,

"So I'm imploring myself to maintain a stand and to focus in on the lone speed."

So am I!  But I've implored myself successfully: I'll save my money for the big show, and I'll take a stand there, too.  Sometimes it's invigorating to show a hearty contempt for money.

07 Jun 2014 8:20 AM
JayJay

Secreteriat : I'm having a really good time here...the hotel I'm staying at is in a not so friendly neighborhood (that's probably there was still room available for this weekend lol)...but had a great time at the track yesterday, I was able to get in around 6:30AM and saw some horses working when the sun was coming up which is cool...then walked around the paddock and the clubhouse.

I got a nice pic of Ron Turcotte with a big smile while he was signing autographs, they had a Secretariat "area" where they were selling all things Secretariat.   Also like the machines, very nice, you get everything from it, betting, results and even a program view!

That's a HUGE bet with your trifecta, I was going to play it but if that combo wins, your bet will eat up all the payout hehe.   Good luck today !!

I like Central Banker in the Met Mile but will also play mz's pick Normany Invasion.

$1 P4 :

08:  9,10

09:  9,6,10

10:  8,6,3

11:  2

Good luck to Chrome in his Triple Crown bid, hoping for safe and clean trips for everyone.  

07 Jun 2014 8:29 AM
Rusty Weisner

Monarchos Matt,

For what it's worth Grandeur also gets Lasix, and he frequently ran and won at this distance in Europe.  Real Solution looks okay to me, too: he's had nothing to run into in the last two efforts.  I might do something with these two, like a double in the Belmont.

07 Jun 2014 8:37 AM
JayJay

KY Vet : Buying the race is what makes you a pro ?   You should've just posted ALL except 3 and 6 lol...

Also going to play the late P4 (10th to 13th) - going to single Chrome and In Trouble and will have 4 horses in the 10th and 5 horses in the 12th for a $20 bet

07 Jun 2014 8:40 AM
-Keelerman

Belmont Day has arrived at last!!

JayJay, I hope you have a great time today! Go California Chrome!

07 Jun 2014 8:58 AM
Rusty Weisner

I'll try Kobe's Back for $1 with the big ones in races 6 & 7.

Not playing the early part of the card otherwise, except I'll try Micromanage/Eriugena $1 box, Kid Cruz-Micromanage double.  Looking at his last three races Micromanage seems to like more distance.

07 Jun 2014 9:13 AM
Rusty Weisner

JayJay,

I think Central Banker may have scratched.  Good luck! (though not with that race).

07 Jun 2014 9:14 AM
Rusty Weisner

That horse I liked in R13 scratched.

07 Jun 2014 9:43 AM
-Keelerman

I still can't figure out what to do with the main pick four! I think the Met Mile seems straightforward enough (I'll take Palace Malice and Shakin It Up), but the Manhattan Handicap has me stumped. At the moment, I'm leaning toward using Imagining, Rookie Sensation, Grandeur, Seek Again, Real Solution, and Kaigun, but that's six horses... in the Just a Game, I believe I'll toss Somali Lemonade and definitely include Discreet Marq and Better Lucky, but I'd also like to use Stephanie's Kitten and Unlimited Budget in some way...

I believe I'll try a trio of pick fours, one going deep in the Manhattan, and two singling Imagining (who is 5-for-8 at Belmont and 3-for-4 at ten furlongs.) Here's what they look like:

9-10 / 1-13 / 1-3-4-6-8-9 / 2

6-7 / 1-13 / 1 / 2

9-10 / 1-13 / 1 / 5-6-9-10

07 Jun 2014 9:54 AM
Rusty Weisner

Forget the Kid Cruz double.  I'll never bet that horse again.

07 Jun 2014 9:54 AM
-Keelerman

Rusty Weisner;

I really like Legend in the Easy Goer Stakes, and I may try some sort of early pick four singling him in the first leg. In the Brooklyn, I'm thinking of using the top three from the Drosselmeyer Stakes (Ground Transport, Ever Rider, and Micromanage), then sticking with just Undrafted and Ben's Cat in the Jaipur before rounding out the sequence with Havana, Social Inclusion, and Tonito M. in the Woody Stephens. But I'm just speculating right now -- nothing definite yet.

07 Jun 2014 10:04 AM
Pedigree Ann

I am happily ensconced in front of a telly, watching "Racing on 4", Channel 4 that is. Cirrus des Aigles just won the G1 Coronation Cup over the 12f Derby course and distance over another French horse, Flintshire. But the jock, Christophe Soumillon, jumped off as he pulled up, as the horse seemed lame. Cirrus walked on his own to the winners' circle, so we can hope this isn't the last race for this 8yo international superstar. 21st win lifetime, 6th G1. Sired by a stallion whose best runs were at a mile and who was initially marketed to National Hunt (chasing/hurdling) breeders before he was sold to France.

The Derby is just under an hour away. Will send a report.

07 Jun 2014 10:05 AM
-Keelerman

Pedigree Ann;

Oh no! I hope Cirrus des Aigles is all right! I watched the simulcast of the race, and was thrilled to see him win, but I stopped watching shortly after the finish and didn't notice him getting pulled up. Be sure to let us know if you hear any updates!

Who do you like in the Derby? I believe Australia is going to romp!

07 Jun 2014 10:12 AM
Rusty Weisner

Forget the early bets.  I won't be tuned in till the 6th or 7th race today.  Good luck, all!

07 Jun 2014 10:16 AM
-Keelerman

Rusty Weisner;

In the last race of the day at Belmont Park, I see that my old friend In the Beat is 99-1 on the morning line. Back in 2011, he broke his maiden with an impressive late run at Churchill Downs (skimming the rail with Calvin Borel aboard), and I declared him at that time to be my Kentucky Derby horse for 2012. Unfortunately, he failed to even remotely live up to my expectations, and now here he is, a claimer stepping up in company to an N2X allowance race. If he holds at 99-1, I might try $2 to win on him (or maybe to show!), just because the lone good race on his recent record was also his lone start on a regular dirt track -- in other words, not the Aqueduct inner track or turf. He's definitely a longshot, but hey, it's not every day that one finds a 99-1 shot that they actually kind of like! :)

07 Jun 2014 10:22 AM
-Keelerman

Good luck to you too, Rusty Weisner! And good luck to all! Let's pick some winners!!!

07 Jun 2014 10:22 AM
TnT

Hi Guys.

So far playing my 3 safest win bets today

Legend

Social Inclusion

Seek Again

If i'm lucky may get sexy and play Vjack across the board, and box him with Moreno.

Not to forget a tiny Jamaican exacta in the Belmont.

Pedigree Ann - I believe Grandeur was not that far behind Cirrus des Aigles in the Hong Kong cup last December, well same zip code.

Epsom is a lovely race to watch unfold on the telly, enjoy.

07 Jun 2014 10:29 AM
Monarchos Matt

I kept both Moreno and Ride On Curlin for a narrow Pick 4 Play, singling Discreet Marq. My BEL play will be a WP on Wicked Strong, and a trifecta:

Wicked Strong/

CC, Ride on Curlin/

CC, Ride on Curlin, Commissioner, Medal Count, Commanding Curve, General A Rod

I'll have narrower tris with CC and ROC on top that focus on just my top 3.

Contest Picks:

Race 2- Kid Cruz

Race 3- Ground Transport

Race 4- Ben's Cat

Race 5- Kobe's Back

Race 6- Unbridled Forever

Race 7- Princess of Sylmar

Race 8- Discreet Marq

Race 9- Shakin It Up

Race 10- Grandeur

Race 11- Wicked Strong

Good luck to all!

07 Jun 2014 10:29 AM
-Keelerman

Thanks for joining the contest, Monarchos Matt! Here are my selections:

Easy Goer Stakes: Legend

Brooklyn Handicap: Ever Rider

Jaipur Invitational: Undrafted

Woody Stephens: Havana

Acorn Stakes: Fiftyshadesofgold

Ogden Phipps: Beholder

Just a Game Stakes: Better Lucky

Metropolitan Handicap: Shakin It Up

Manhattan Handicap: Rookie Sensation (for his odds)

Belmont Stakes: Matuszak (for his odds -- maybe he can finish second!)

Good luck to all!

07 Jun 2014 10:37 AM
TnT

Keelerman - did you watch Cat Burglar's race at Pimlico, he really got squeezed coming for home, i'd be careful leaving him out.

That said I still like Ever Rider, hopefully Victor doesn't get cute and use the race as a test run for CC, and rate ER early.

07 Jun 2014 10:40 AM
-Keelerman

TnT;

Cat Burglar is indeed the horse I'm most worried about leaving out. If I end up playing that pick four, I may have to add him in. He does have the edge from a Beyer speed figure perspective, albeit a small one. Thanks for your thoughts! Good luck today!

07 Jun 2014 10:43 AM
Pedigree Ann

Have a place bet on the unbeaten Godsden colt Western Hymn. Inbred 3x3 to the outstanding French Derby winner Darshaan.

07 Jun 2014 10:55 AM
TnT

Final Picks

Legend

Ever Rider

Salto

Social Inclusion

Unbridled Forever

Princess of Sylmar

Discreet Marq

Vyjack

Seek Again

Commanding Curve

Good Luck Guys

07 Jun 2014 11:01 AM
Pedigree Ann

Well, the best horse won, Australia by a length over Kingston Hill. By Galileo,a Derby winner, out of the Oaks winner Ouija Board, he was born to win at Epsom. My horse was stuck between horses and behind horses when he wanted to go coming down the hill, wasted energy fighting restrain; finished mid-pack.

07 Jun 2014 11:15 AM
Plod Boy Phil

California Chrome will be #12. Expecting a bad case of the wobbles from the quarter pole home.

07 Jun 2014 11:17 AM
Plod Boy Phil

To follow up,  my only regret will for Mr. Tom Durkin who will get his final chance to call a winning effort by a TC candidate.

07 Jun 2014 11:20 AM
Little Bill

Contest picks

2) Misconnect

3) Norumbega

4) Anyriderill Do

5) Financial Mogul

6) House Rules

7) Princess

8) Strathnaver

9) Capo Bastone

10) Chamois

11) Drum roll.............................Matuszac

07 Jun 2014 11:25 AM
Rusty Weisner

I'm going to try to do something with Sweet Reason in the Acorn.

07 Jun 2014 11:32 AM
JayJay

Keelerman:    It's one big party here.  You have to go next year!   I'm starting with wabba in the first with the 1 9 3.  Good luck to you today and to everyone.    GO CHROME!!!

07 Jun 2014 11:32 AM
Rusty Weisner

Plod Boy Phil,

That badly?  But there are only eleven horses!

07 Jun 2014 11:32 AM
Rusty Weisner

Little Bill,

Tell me which of those insane longshots are really going to win so I can bet them.

07 Jun 2014 11:39 AM
-Keelerman

Looks like the track is fast at Belmont today! In the opening race of the day (an N1X allowance race), Wabbajack tracked quick early fractions (:23.01, :46.00, and 1:10.75) before taking command in the homestretch and holding off a late bid from Lieutenant Seany O to win the 8.5-furlong race in 1:42.31 seconds.

07 Jun 2014 11:41 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Rusty -

Failed bid #12,  not counting IHA another who did not run.

07 Jun 2014 11:41 AM
-Keelerman

Thanks for joining the contest, Little Bill! Good luck!

07 Jun 2014 11:41 AM
Rusty Weisner

Little Bill,

I see the one I like:  House Rules.  Yoink! -- Thanks!  (I like Wicked Strong, too)

07 Jun 2014 11:43 AM
Pedigree Ann

There's a contest? Okay, game on!

2nd Life in Shambles

3rd Ever Rider

4th Ben's Cat (it's a day for the 8yos)

5th Coup de Grace

6th House Rules

7th Princess of Sylmar

8th Waterway Run

9th Normandy Invasion (spent yesterday with BBC1, which covered the ceremonies)

10th Grandeur

11th California Chrome (need you ask?)

07 Jun 2014 11:47 AM
JerseyBoy

Had a nice exacta box on the Epsom Derby.

Australia, the winner, is bred to be a king. His dam, Ouija Board, was a superstar, who won the Oaks.

So breeding a superstar to a superstar has produced a star.

Congratulations to Coolmore, the guys with the Midas touch.

They own the winner and the winner’s sire, Galileo.

They also own Mastercraftsman, the sire of Kingston Hill, the runner-up. Mastercraftsman also sired the winner of the French Derby, in this his first crop.

Some guys just have all the luck.

07 Jun 2014 11:56 AM
-Keelerman

Thanks for joining, Pedigree Ann! Good luck!

07 Jun 2014 11:56 AM
Rusty Weisner

Plod Boy Phil,

Ah, that's better!

Talk to you all later.

07 Jun 2014 12:02 PM
Little Bill

Rusty, If I knew I'd surely tell, right now I say all of them. Second might not hurt. Insane? I'm sure you've seen those types win before. In the Acorn just box all those sweet horses, if it hits it'll be..........

07 Jun 2014 12:07 PM
-Keelerman

Good luck, Rusty Weisner! Have a great day!

07 Jun 2014 12:07 PM
Little Bill

Heart breaker to start the day. Perfect trip for 5, not good enough.

07 Jun 2014 12:11 PM
Secreteriat

Contest

R3 GROUND TRANSPORT

R4 BEN'S CAT

R5 KOBE'S BACK

R6 SWEET REASON

R7 BEHOLDER

R8 DISCREET MARQUE

R9 PALAICE MALICE

R 10 REAL SOLUTION

R 10 CHROME

07 Jun 2014 12:27 PM
-Keelerman

I'd say the main track at Belmont Park is very fast! Kid Cruz just won the Easy Goer Stakes with an impressive late rally, taking advantage of quick fractions (:22.68, :45.68, 1:10.18) to cruise past Legend in the homestretch and win by daylight in the sharp time of 1:41.12 for a mile and a sixteenth. Nice pick, Monarchos Matt!

Here are the standings after the first race of our contest:

1. Monarchos Matt - $13.00

2. TnT - $3.80

2. Keelerman - $3.80

4. Little Bill - $0.00

4. Pedigree Ann - $0.00

07 Jun 2014 12:29 PM
JayJay

I have to go with little bill with norumbega in the 3rd.  He looks good and 3rd race back.   Playin the double wth the 3 in the fourth

07 Jun 2014 12:30 PM
-Keelerman

Thanks for joining the contest, Secreteriat! Good luck!

07 Jun 2014 12:31 PM
-Keelerman

Congratulations to Little Bill and JayJay on selecting Norumbega to win the Brooklyn Handicap at 10-1! After sitting several lengths off of moderate fractions for much of the race, Norumbega rallied strongly between horses during the final furlong to get up and edge Micromanage in the very quick time of 2:27.13 seconds.

Here are the standings after the second race of our contest:

1. Little Bill $31.40

2. Monarchos Matt - $13.00

3. TnT - $3.80

3. Keelerman - $3.80

5. Pedigree Ann - $0.00

07 Jun 2014 12:49 PM
Brontexx

Not bad we get to watch a race on the same surface and distance although at a different part of the day, as the race of the day.There you have it, and the Belmont will be similar but there could be jockeys that make bold moves in that pack which encompassed almost the entire field.There were only seven in that one so the front group could be a little more in front or there will be more trailers that lose touch with the main pack.Front to back was more than 10 lengths because the 1 was far back the entire race.

07 Jun 2014 12:59 PM
Pedigree Ann

Well, I seem to be doing a good job of picking horses to complete superfectas.

07 Jun 2014 1:20 PM
Brontexx

If CC wins it will be by the smallest of margins of all the TC races in 2014.

07 Jun 2014 1:28 PM
Brontexx

I dont know about you but playing a colt at 3-5 and running 12 furlongs for a very close finish or even a blanket finish is not the type I single on top, in vertical exotics.I am thinking CC singled in 12 13 DD.

07 Jun 2014 1:33 PM
Brontexx

Sorry my bad meant to write CC in 11 12 DD.

07 Jun 2014 1:34 PM
-Keelerman

I'd say the turf course is playing fast as well! Undrafted just rallied with a powerful run to edge Marchman in the Jaipur Invitational, and the final time for six furlongs was 1:07.24!

Here are the standings after the third race of our contest:

1. Little Bill $31.40

2. Keelerman - $20.40

3. Monarchos Matt - $13.00

4. TnT - $3.80

5. Pedigree Ann - $0.00

5. Secreteriat - $0.00

07 Jun 2014 1:39 PM
-Keelerman

From DRF.com, here are the Belmont Stakes odds as of 1:00 PM EST:

1 Medal Count 25-1

2 California Chrome 3-5

3 Matterhorn 42-1

4 Commanding Curve 8-1

5 Ride On Curlin 7-1

6 Matuszak 30-1

7 Samraat 21-1

8 Commissioner 30-1

9 Wicked Strong 6-1

10 General a Rod 37-1

11 Tonalist 5-1

I can't believe General a Rod is still a longer price than Matuszak!

07 Jun 2014 1:44 PM
Pedigree Ann

So, speed held this time and Bob's 'best 3yo' turns out to be a sprinter. And a horse bred in Arizona!! beats the highly vaunted Social Inclusion. At least SI didn't have a fit at the gate. And it seems a lot of people had decided that SI was a shoo-in in this race, otherwise, how would Bayern pay $20?

07 Jun 2014 2:10 PM
-Keelerman

Having watched the first four dirt races of the day at Belmont Park, I haven't seen any evidence of a track bias. But there is no denying that the main track is fast! Bayern's winning time in the Woody Stephens Stakes was a blazing 1:20.75 seconds. Wow! I have the feeling we'll be seeing a 1:32-and-change mile in the Metropolitan Handicap later this afternoon.

07 Jun 2014 2:32 PM
-Keelerman

Congratulations to Secreteriat and Rusty Weisner on picking Sweet Reason to win the Acorn at 9-1! Here are the standings at the halfway point of our contest:

1. Little Bill $31.40

2. Secreteriat $30.40

3. Keelerman - $20.40

4. Monarchos Matt - $13.00

5. TnT - $3.80

6. Pedigree Ann - $0.00

07 Jun 2014 2:41 PM
Little Bill

The "Sweet" exacta. Name game pays.

07 Jun 2014 2:42 PM
Pedigree Ann

So the fast fillies, My Miss Sophia, Fiftyshadesofgold, Fashion Plate, et. al. out of the trifecta after fast early fractions. That makes more sense than what Bayern did. Of course, he just had to see off SI and there were a big bunch all together at the front in the Acorn. 4/5 on Sophia with all the rest of that speed in there seemed a bit optimistic.

07 Jun 2014 2:46 PM
Rusty Weisner

Missed the race, but had Sweet Reason on a P3 ticket with 2,7,8, three favorites in next, Discreet Marq and Somali Lemonade in the 8th.  

07 Jun 2014 2:49 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Lil' Bill -

Easy game.

07 Jun 2014 3:00 PM
Rusty Weisner

I'll have what Little Bill's having.

Keelerman,

Nice on Undrafted.  Glad after all that I didn't play that Kid Cruz/Micromanage DD.

07 Jun 2014 3:05 PM
Secreteriat

How Sweet with Sweet $481.00 exacta.

07 Jun 2014 3:12 PM
Rusty Weisner

Little Bill,

The other pick of yours I'm with is Capo Bastone.  He was 27-1 on Belmont day last year because of pace setup.  I didn't see the Acorn, but I'm assuming Sweet Reason came off the pace.

I want to avoid the Met Mile as I'm not real keen on Palace Malice.  

07 Jun 2014 3:13 PM
Rusty Weisner

Nice that Close Hatches pulled that out.  I had a good feeling about her ability to beat the top two.

My $1 P3 pays $392 for Somali Lemonade, $209 for Discreet Marq, so that gives me the option of foregoing the P4.  Advice on what to do about the Met Mile is appreciated.

Keelerman,

I liked that race.  It looked like a nice, honest track.

07 Jun 2014 3:23 PM
-Keelerman

What a thriller in the Ogden Phipps! I can't believe that Antipathy actually finished in the same zip code as Close Hatches, Princess of Sylmar, and Beholder, never mind actually edging Beholder for the third spot!

The main track continues to play very fast, with Close Hatches stopping the clock for a mile and a sixteenth in 1:40.55 seconds.

Here are the standings after the sixth race of our contest:

1. Little Bill $34.60

2. Secreteriat $30.40

3. Keelerman - $20.40

4. Monarchos Matt - $16.20

5. TnT - $7.00

6. Pedigree Ann - $3.20

07 Jun 2014 3:25 PM
-Keelerman

Rusty Weisner;

Two down, one to go! Good luck in the Just a Game!

07 Jun 2014 3:25 PM
Pedigree Ann

What a race! Even Beholder and Close Hatches wouldn't go with that early pace. Hope these 3 stay sound because we could be in for heck of a summer and fall from them.

07 Jun 2014 3:30 PM
Rusty Weisner

The "insane" and incomparable Little Bill is not going to spook me with his Strathnaver.  I'll play the p4, only for 50 cents instead of $1:

4,9/1/ALL/WS

I'll forego the $5 boxed exacta 4,9 for a $2 box.

07 Jun 2014 3:33 PM
-Keelerman

Remember how I was hoping that Stephanie's Kitten's defeat in the Jenny Wiley might boost her odds above 4-1 in the upcoming Just a Game Stakes? I guess that was just wishful thinking, because she is currently the favorite at 5-2. I wouldn't have guessed that!

07 Jun 2014 3:39 PM
-Keelerman

Maybe Ken Ramsey believes that Stephanie's Kitten is sitting on a big effort! :)

07 Jun 2014 3:39 PM
Rusty Weisner

Keelerman,

I wouldn't say I "picked" Sweet Reason; I "had" her.  But you can pencil her in retrospectively as my contest pick:

The rest:

Somali Lemonade

Palace Malice

Grandeur

Wicked Strong

07 Jun 2014 3:41 PM
Rusty Weisner

Keelerman,

Second thought, don't pencil me in, don't! Bad luck! Bad juju! Jinx! No contest selections!

07 Jun 2014 3:44 PM
Rusty Weisner

Keelerman,

Per interview, Ken Ramsey is playing against CC.

07 Jun 2014 3:44 PM
-Keelerman

Rusty Weisner;

I am erasing your penciled-in selections as we speak! :)

07 Jun 2014 3:47 PM
-Keelerman

Rusty Weisner;

That's interesting! Did Ken Ramsey say who he will be playing?

07 Jun 2014 3:47 PM
Pedigree Ann

Woo-hoo! I have some money in the contest! The next race had me befuddled so I went with the one that won the prep for this race.

07 Jun 2014 4:00 PM
Rusty Weisner

Okay, now I'm spooked.

07 Jun 2014 4:05 PM
Pedigree Ann

I'm Skyping with my daughter-in-law; she said that Ramsey opined that Chrome would trip on his pedigree in the home stretch.  

07 Jun 2014 4:06 PM
Rusty Weisner

Keelerman,

No, he wasn't sayin'.

07 Jun 2014 4:06 PM
Rusty Weisner

Monarchos Matt,

Too fast, but at least I didn't play Better Lucky and SK.

07 Jun 2014 4:07 PM
-Keelerman

What a finish in the Just a Game Stakes! Little Bill, I really thought you had it with Strathnaver, but I guess Coffee Clique held on. Nevertheless, great pick!

Here are the standings after the seventh race of our contest:

1. Little Bill $50.40

2. Secreteriat $30.40

3. Keelerman - $20.40

4. Monarchos Matt - $16.20

5. TnT - $7.00

6. Pedigree Ann - $3.20

07 Jun 2014 4:12 PM
Pedigree Ann

My d-i-l had Strathnaver, too. I thought she was prepping for longer races later. Oops.

07 Jun 2014 4:17 PM
Rusty Weisner

The next race will be a palate cleanser for me (to get the taste of Somali Lemonade - ick - out of my mouth):

$1 P3 Palace Malice/Grandeur,Real Solution/WS.

07 Jun 2014 4:19 PM
Pedigree Ann

Since my picks are going so well <sarcasm>, I'll give you the d-i-l's pick - Moreno.

07 Jun 2014 4:35 PM
Rusty Weisner

What a horse, what a ride.

07 Jun 2014 4:53 PM
-Keelerman

What a performance by Palace Malice in the Met Mile! Drawing post one didn't make any difference at all! I should have stuck with him in our contest! :)

Nice pick, Secreteriat! Here are the standings after the eighth race of our contest:

1. Little Bill $50.40

2. Secreteriat $38.80

3. Keelerman - $20.40

4. Monarchos Matt - $16.20

5. TnT - $7.00

6. Pedigree Ann - $3.20

07 Jun 2014 4:59 PM
Pedigree Ann

D-i-l and I both missed that one. Trying to beat the best horse just because he's the favorite.

07 Jun 2014 5:02 PM
Secreteriat

Palace Malice Horse of the Year

thank you for the $559.00 TRI

07 Jun 2014 5:03 PM
-Keelerman

Secreteriat;

Congratulations on hitting the Met Mile trifecta! Great job!

07 Jun 2014 5:06 PM
Secreteriat

THENKS KEELERMAN

LIVE IN A$5 P 3 TO 5 6 8 W 2-9-11

ITS GETTING EXCITING MY PERSONAL TRIPLE  CROWN IF CC WS OR TONELIST WIN

07 Jun 2014 5:20 PM
Pedigree Ann

Back to filling out supers, sigh.

07 Jun 2014 5:52 PM
Secreteriat

REAL SOLUTION SMOKING!

COME ON CHROME!

MAKE MY DAY!!

07 Jun 2014 5:54 PM
-Keelerman

Secreteriat;

Two down, one to go! Great job handicapping the Manhattan Handicap! Good luck in the Belmont Stakes!

07 Jun 2014 5:55 PM
Rusty Weisner

Keelerman, Secretariat,

Thanks for keeping me on Palace Malice.  I have two ALL tickets in the Manhattan, but two also with Real Solution and Grandeur.  $2 P3 for CC (that will pay $98) and $3 P3 on WS (that will pay $256).  So let's see what I bet.

07 Jun 2014 5:56 PM
Rusty Weisner

Bets same, just $50 on WS to win, though.

07 Jun 2014 6:11 PM
Secreteriat

RUSTY

HAPPY TO HELP ENJOY THE RIDE AND WIN SOME MONEY

KEELERMAN THANKS FOR LETTTING US SHARE OUR THOUGHTS. LOVE IT WHEN WE WIN

07 Jun 2014 6:28 PM
-Keelerman

Nineteen minutes to post! Let's bring it home!! Go California Chrome!! Good luck, everyone!

07 Jun 2014 6:34 PM
Secreteriat

RUSTY,

Wicked IS GETTING A LOT OF LATE  BETTING ACTION.

I HAVE THEM BOTH SO I NEED THEM TO FINISH ON ONE TWO FOR A BIG SCORE AND MY OWN TRIPLE CROWN GOOD LUCK ALL

07 Jun 2014 6:42 PM
JayJay

This is it....    Got some shots at the paddock and all I can say is Rosie is freakin hot!!!!    Oh and Chrome looks good too.   I don't think I'll watch the race and will stay by the paddock.     This place turn from party to total chaos!

07 Jun 2014 6:47 PM
Pedigree Ann

Bummer, Bummer, BUMMER!!!

07 Jun 2014 6:59 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Ann -

He's still tired....

07 Jun 2014 7:04 PM
Kevin

All the points gained ripping Churchill Downs after poor hospitality just went out the window; now sounding like a sore loser for losing to fresh horses.  

07 Jun 2014 7:21 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Kevin -

Yeah, dreadful stuff.

07 Jun 2014 7:29 PM
JerseyBoy

Well the plodders did it. They just plodded along at a steady pace, about 12 seconds per furlong until the turn. At that point the ones that lacked stamina could not go on when asked to accelerate. It was a classic  plodder’s race.

Ride On Curlin did not make it. But I had a nice show bet on Medal Count.

I did not want California Chrome to win because I feel that no horse running on Lasix should ever be mentioned in the same sentence with Seattle Slew, Secretariat and the other Triple Crown winners.

07 Jun 2014 7:35 PM
-Keelerman

Great job, Secreteriat!! Looks like you made quite a score in the pick three!

And congratulations to Coldfacts as well on picking Tonalist to win the Belmont! Great job!

07 Jun 2014 7:37 PM
Brontexx

As many winning tickets as some of you on here claim, you should be driving a Ferrari instead of the heap you actually drive.

The powers that be are now armed for a change to the spacing of the Triple Crown races.I told you it would be a slow race, I got Tonalist and was alive to Real Solution to CC DD at 19-1.I knew how the race would be ran so I also had Commish and even Medal Count to win.I played my lottery ticket cheaper than you think for an out of the super finish for CC to no avail.I had Wicked Strong on top of Tonalist and Medal Count but only Commish to win.

Keelerman there it was the exacta for the Peter Pan was the same as for the Belmont.

Coldfacts what happend to CC2,remember what I told you about a sucker bet.Next year for the KD if Dallas Stewart has a runner could be the WISE GUY HORSE.

07 Jun 2014 7:38 PM
Rusty Weisner

KY VET,

Not so crazy, after all.  But did you have the 8 in the two spot?

07 Jun 2014 7:56 PM
Rusty Weisner

To all of you who won:

It was the coward's way out!!! *sob*, *sniff*

07 Jun 2014 7:57 PM
JayJay

That was a heartbreaker.   I thought when victor stayed inside it will be tough.    Commissioner ran huge.   I still would've lost if I had gone against chrome as I would've had commish on top.    Congrats to all who won specially Secreteriat.    That was a nice P3 hit!!    Very nice handicapping overall.

07 Jun 2014 8:08 PM
Brontexx

Rusty Weisner It was an outside break Wicked Strong was pulled in as was the long shot A-Rod.I think he ran unevenly and lost his usual kick in the stretch.

This game is about knowing how to bet.Anyone that tries to fool others into thinking that what is recorded as Past Performances and unlocking winners comes from the nuances of that piece of paper are selling people a bunch of malarky.

07 Jun 2014 8:28 PM
Brontexx

As per June 6 9:22AM

Tonalist has to attempt to get to the rail,because if CC is allowed to dictate the pace 1. It will be a slow pace 2. If it is too slow it will be over after 6 furlongs, just like the trainer of Seattle Slew said it was for that ones Belmont.

I also believe the colts that start near CC with any kind of tactical speed and it could include all of them posts 1,3,4 will follow CC, if another colt dosent take the inititive and make the pace.Even if one does break and take the lead CC has an x on his back and at 12 furlongs his spurt away from the pack after about a mile wont render the rest unable to catch him with another half mile to go.

I think its very obvious that CC is the BEST but I think his campaign and the distance will require bettors to keep an open mind and not think he is guaranteed even a spot in the super as opposed to the Preakness where I thought he was a lock and I only bet the Double with CC in the second leg.

07 Jun 2014 8:38 PM
KY VET

how do you cash for 2280 and feel like you lost? @#&%$!!!! Ibet more thab any race this year because of the perfect storm....i thought cali would run out, had 4 dollar tris with tonalist!  only 200 w 80 place,,,,,was going for my biggest win ever and @$%@!!!!.....i'm so mad.......................shoulda keyed him.......btw.....remember what i said? After he won the peter pan? you people dont know what you just saw! Why hardly any talk about tonalist? remember?    i'm steaming mad.....tri paid 1600 for 40 cents? i had 4 dollar tris 11/ with 6 horses with 7.......$%^%##@!!!!!!!

07 Jun 2014 9:13 PM
KY VET

commish on the lead?     @$%%@@@&&%E##!!!!!!

07 Jun 2014 9:14 PM
KY VET

someone please tell me what chromes idiot owner said after the race......someone said he was a sore loser......

07 Jun 2014 9:29 PM
KY VET

Wow....just say the owner of chrome.....well they named the stable after him! What a boob! Have another beer you crybaby! You got what you deserve! #no class tavern@#$!$%

07 Jun 2014 9:50 PM
KY VET

And we thought billy carter was dead!

07 Jun 2014 9:51 PM
KY VET

And we thought billy carter was dead!

07 Jun 2014 9:51 PM
KY VET

people might not understand this....but tonalist was 11 to 1 going into gate....went off at 9 to 1.........big deal? do you know how much it takes to make the odds change that much? on this day?  i'm just sayin.......someone made alot of money.....

07 Jun 2014 10:06 PM
JayJay

Kevin : What did you mean about Churchill Downs ?   Who is the sore loser besides me lol ?  

I was worried about 12Fs for Chrome but I was hoping he would have a 5th gear to get the last 2Fs.   I don't think he liked racing on the inside but he didn't have any excuse at all, he was just short.   Looking forward to the Travers, I hope they don't retire him and let him run at least the rest of the year.

I was wrong about Palace Malice as well, he's just a monster and his Met Mile win was awesome.

Anyone remember what KY said after the Preakness ?   Someone sounds like a sore loser lol...

07 Jun 2014 10:14 PM
KY VET

Hey! dumb owner! You want to win the triple crown? Next time dont run all winter spring!!!! Figure it out! It's your own fault! That horse did a unreal job lasting as long as he did! Its not the crown, you ran too many !!!

07 Jun 2014 10:27 PM
Coldfacts

Keelerman,

Your acknowledgement. It was not  difficult to finally land on Tonalist. His PP's was the Key. He won two 9F races in his 4 starts. Commissioner contested 5 and won 2.

CC1 contest two 4.5F and 5.5F races in his first 4 starts.

Before the Derby I stated that Constitution was the horse to be hyped and not CC1. He won a G1 race over 9F in his third start. CC1 won a G1 race in his 10th start.

People are so sentimental. No wonder hundreds of pet rocks were sold in this country.

NB: At no time did I see a post from the KY VET  on Tonalist.

07 Jun 2014 10:33 PM
Coldfacts

JayJay,

“Looking forward to the Travers, I hope they don't retire him and let him run at least the rest of the year.”

I do not understand the above statement. Do you believe CC1 can defeat Tonalist? One horse won two 9F race and a 12F race in his first 5 starts and one colt won a 4.5F and 5.5F in his first five starts. Who do you believe is the classier? Whereas cold facts matter, sentiments are optional.

I declared from early that he would not win the Belmont. I was maligned and accused of hate on Mr. Haskin’s blog for advising caution. How was this colt unbeatable if 11 opponents saw it fit to show up? He will never finish ahead of a fit and well Tonalist. He is neither faster nor possesses more stamina.

You specified that some horses lacked foundation and I provided a cautionary alert by citing Summer Bird and Dunkirk who entered the Belmont with 4 starts. You took offense to the historic provision.  CC1 is not a super horse, not even close. Top Billing, Honor Code, Shared Belief, Tonalist and Constitution got injured. That paved the way for his success in the TC races.

The desperation for the 12th TC winner has given rise to blindness.

07 Jun 2014 11:04 PM
-Keelerman

Well, it was quite a day, even if California Chrome didn't win the Triple Crown! Congratulations to the connections of Tonalist. That was a fine victory!

I'm sorry these are a bit late, but here are the final standings in our contest:

1. Secreteriat $58.60

2. Little Bill $50.40

3. Keelerman - $20.40

4. Monarchos Matt - $16.20

5. TnT - $7.00

6. Pedigree Ann - $3.20

Congratulations to Secreteriat! And thanks to all for playing!

07 Jun 2014 11:05 PM
Little Bill

JJ, you won't see Crome this side of the river again.

Ann, they don't do that as much any more. They come to win right off the bench. Strave had an out,so maybe once.

Vet, yeah, your the only one that saw it. Keep telling yourself that if it makes you feel better.

Rusty, Four Barrel, Triton brewery, dark, malty, just the right hops, 25 IBU.

Thanks Keelerman.

Congrats to everyone that got payed.

07 Jun 2014 11:14 PM
Coldfacts

The trainer of CC1 clearly made some emotional statements. The current structure for the TC series of races did not prevent the likes of Secretariat, Seattle Slew and Affirmed from achieving TC glory.

During weeks leading up to the Belmont, it was reported that CC1 was in better shape than the first 2 legs. During the many press conferences there were no criticisms of the structure of the TC.

Like many, the connections of CC1 were convinced he was the best 3YO of his generation and incapable of being beaten. A Derby completed in 2:03.66 was dismissed. A 1 1/2L Preakness victory ahead of a horse without a graded stakes victory meant nothing.

I declared that CC1 would not win the Belmont very early. When I saw him on the monitor during the post parade I was positive he would not win. He appeared to be a horse without energy and sporting a heavy mid-section. He ran much better than I expected.

What were the connections of CC1 thinking? Did they believe the New York trainers were going to hand him the Belmont?  He was not good enough to earn it. He lost and all and sundry need to get over it.

NB: Keep him in SA like Game On Dude and he will not be beaten.

07 Jun 2014 11:29 PM
Coldfacts

Keelerman,

Your acknowledgement is noted. It was not  difficult to finally land on Tonalist. His PP's was the Key. He won two 9F races in his 4 starts. Commissioner contested 5 and won 2.

CC1 contest two 4.5F and 5.5F races in his first 4 starts.

Before the Derby I stated that Constitution was the horse to be hyped and not CC1. He won a G1 race over 9F in his third start. CC1 won a G1 race in his 10th start.

People are so sentimental. No wonder hundreds of pet rocks were sold in this country.

NB: At no time did I see a post from the KY VET  on Tonalist.

07 Jun 2014 11:33 PM
Coldfacts

Brontexx,

After I advised you that Tonalist was my choice to win the Belmont, you posted some nonsense that only you could understand. If Home Depot is paying you to plug the operation on these blog, they stock very little or products for horses. The moderator had to waste valuable time to remove them.

I have advised you in the past to conduct yourself in a manner consistent with the level of the contributors to the blog and desist from engaging in nonsense.

CC2 did not perform as expected but he was not alone. He was not my primary wager but was included in my exotics.

07 Jun 2014 11:45 PM
JayJay

Coldfacts :  I don't get your post, you even quoted me and yet you assumed that I said Chrome will beat Tonalist.   I don't know if Chrome will win the Travers, I don't know if Tonalist will win the Travers.   There will be new shooters in the Travers and for all we know, Danza could be back by then and win the Travers.   Let me ask you, watch the Belmont race again and tell me how far ahead Tonalist is from Chrome at the 10 furlong mark...he came in 4th beaten by 1 and 3/4 lengths.   Please keep in mind that the Travers is a 10 Furlong race.

It's funny how you went on a crusade about Chrome not winning yet you have him coming in for 2nd in your tickets.   If you believed he was capable of taking 2nd, why are you so critical of people who picked him to win ?

07 Jun 2014 11:52 PM
JayJay

Coldfacts :  The same things can be said with Tonalist, let's see him win at another track first befoe you start criticizing Chrome's record.   Chrome has won G1 races at SA, CD and Pimlico.   Tonalist has won at Belmont...also, Secretariat set the record of 1:59 for the Derby, Chrome's final time was 4 seconds off that record.   Secretariat also set the record of 2:24 in the Belmont, guess what the final time is for Tonalist ?   2:28... 4 seconds off the mark.

08 Jun 2014 12:02 AM
Brontexx

Coldfacts The trainer of CC1 clearly made some emotional statements. The current structure for the TC series of races did not prevent the likes of Secretariat, Seattle Slew and Affirmed from achieving TC glory.

That was in that era and this is A much different era.

I have advised you in the past to conduct yourself in a manner consistent with the level of the contributors to the blog and desist from engaging in nonsense.

I told KEELERMAN isnt he the moderator that if he didnt want me back on the blog to let me know.

You take yourself too seriously on this blog.This is not rocket science lighten up.You tried to talk up CC2 and then you posted a bet with Tonalist on top.Good for you I got Tonalist to win also no big deal I pick winners at a very high percentage of the races I play.I dont play many races and I dont believe the malarky that the writers try to tell the public about this pari-mutual.

08 Jun 2014 12:32 AM
Little Bill

I hope they can get Noblemoon right and a prep of any sort before the Travers. I think he's a 1 1/14 type.

08 Jun 2014 1:03 AM
Coldfacts

Ranagulzion,

"You posted "We have seen the best of CC1". Have we really?"

What do you think?

08 Jun 2014 2:14 AM
Pedigree Ann

What the heck kind of ride was that? WHere was the deft and decisive jock who put Chrome right where he needed to be to use his best weapon, his high cruising speed, in the Derby and Preakness? Instead, he put him mid-pack, bottled-up on the rail, just another galloper in a gallopers' race. Color me perplexed.

08 Jun 2014 3:46 AM
Coldfacts

Posted previously  

"Is it conceivable that CC2 could finish out of the exacta & tri? I am firmly with Tonalist to win. I am of the opinion that CC2 and Wicked Strong will finish ahead of CC1. Therefore his only slot on the board is possible 4th.

The fans of CC1 are going to accuse me of disrespect with the above scenarios. However, folks like me with wild scenarios will move his odds from 3-5 to even money. It is unlikely that all will worship at the altar of The Chrome.

In all seriousness, the above scenario could unfold. This Belmont field is probably one of the best assembled in years from a stamina perspective. The oddly run Derby did not reflect the true ability of several that have returned for the Belmont.

The Preakness gave indications that if a horse that has never won a graded stakes could get within 1 1/2L of CC1, he has to be vulnerable to graded stakes winners not engage in a demolition Derby. Both horses that finished 2nd to CC1 are without victories in graded races.

Graded stakes winners Wicked Strong and Medal Count experienced bad trips in the Derby and must be dangerous opponents off their 4-5 weeks to recovery. New shooter Tonalist was under a hand ride in the Peter Pan and was eased 10 meters out for 1:48 clocking.

Wishful thinking or practical analysis! You decide."

The above scenario did unfold to my financial benefit.

08 Jun 2014 8:00 AM
Plod Boy Phil

Triple Crown or no Triple Crown (why does it even matter ?) horseplayers are back at it today with a solid card from Elmont.

08 Jun 2014 8:01 AM
JayJay

Coldfacts :   What, no response ?  Do you still believe Tonalist is a ton better than Chrome ?   I think you got carried away with picking the Belmont winner because you were so mad about the people who were rooting for him to win the Triple Crown.   You're showing signs of the same thing you were blasting the Chrome supporters.   You're getting blinded by his one G1 win....let's see him win another G1 and then maybe we can start talking about challenging Chrome for the 3YO chamopionship.

Ann : Yeah, same here (a bit perplexed) but Victor did try.  He pushed Chrome out of the gate to get ahead of Samraat but I thought maybe he should've moved a bit more to get to the 2nd path and let Commissioner take the rail.   I don't know if he still could've gotten the distance though...looking forward to the Travers.  Hope you're having fun over there.

08 Jun 2014 8:12 AM
Secreteriat

Keelerman

I had a great day money wise!

I hit the Pick 3for five dollars and I posted my other winnings. I also had the exacta and the tri on my backup tickets so I did hit my personal T/C so why am I still said?

I wanted CC to do it but unless some changes are made to require all compete in the 3 races to win a 5 mllion bonus or something like that we may never see another one. Anyway the key to my success was selecting the horses with the highest Tomlinson and dosage numbers. Medal Count  Tonelist and Commisioner all had these number. CC did not and that is why I used all of them in my back up tickets.

Colfacts congrats on sticking on Tonalist. It helped me after much thought to use him on top and toss ROC on my alternates.

Thank you all for your thoughts. Ot;s wkatmakes this blog the best!!!!

08 Jun 2014 8:13 AM
Coldfacts

Previously posts:

"The penultimate Belmont contender cited in the moderator’s summary is of major interest to me. The highlights of his pedigree do indicate what appears to be an oversupply of stamina at the expense of speed.

My first post on Commissioner questioned the decision of his breeders to mate a mare sired by a Belmont winner with a fellow Belmont winner. I am no breeder but my initial reaction on seeing his sire and dam sire was, what were they thinking? After watching his performances I later posted that he would require every inch of the Belmont Stakes distance to have any chance at a victory in a TC race.

Commission has indicated to all that he is devoid of tactical speed and lacks an explosive acceleration. What chance does he have at 12F against the speed and stamina blessed California Chrome? On paper very little. However, there is one thing in Commissioner’s favor i.e., his trainer’s Belmont record with horse with A P Indy in their immediate pedigrees.

As abysmal as Mr. Pletcher’s Derby and Preakness records are, his Belmont record in the opposite. He has won the stakes twice (Rags To Riches/Palace Malice). He has finished as runner-up twice (Bluegrass Cat/Dunkirk). Bluegrass Cat, Palace Malice and Dunkirk all contested the Derby but skipped the Preakness. Rags To Riches contested the KY Oaks. All these horses had 5 weeks between races and fell well within Mr. Pletcher’s comfort zone of 4 weeks between races.

Rags To Riches was sired by A P Indy and the dams of Blue Grass Cat and Dunkirk were sired by A P Indy. The A P Indy sired Commissioner will now take his shot. He ran improved race in the Peter Pan and could be finally improving. He will return 3 day shy of 4 weeks to contest the Belmont and this period falls within his trainers comfort zone. Commissioner is a magnificent looking horse whose performances have been anything but magnificent.

Todd Pletcher is back in business with another A P Indy connected horse. The Belmont is being contested in his back yard where has been most successful in TC races. He is the one trainer with the potential and technology to transform a horse from mediocre to magnificent come Belmont day."

It appears as I predicted Mr. Pletcher transformed a horse from mediocre to magnificent on Belmont day.

08 Jun 2014 8:21 AM
Coldfacts

JayJay

You specified ticket in your post. I cited three tickets and not all had CC1 in 2nd. It's a race and one has to have aback up plan. You will note he was never placed on top.

Do you seriously believe CC1 can set any pace that Tonalist could not sit in? One colt is superior to the other based purely on their comparative records over their first five starts. No one can dispute same.

Danza got beat in a Derby run in 2:03.66. The 10F split for the Bellmen was 2:02.04 and Tonalist was up with the leaders. Tonalist has nothing to  fear from Danza. he is the better horse with the better trainer.

08 Jun 2014 8:35 AM
Coldfacts

Secreteriat,

Your comments have been noted.

Congrats on your success at the betting windows.

08 Jun 2014 8:36 AM
Rusty Weisner

I hope everyone understood this was a joke:

"To all of you who won:

It was the coward's way out!!! *sob*, *sniff*"

Not crying in my beer.  I mostly stuck the one horse and was wrong; I can live with that.

So congratulations, winners.  

08 Jun 2014 8:45 AM
JayJay

Coldfacts :  lol, is this your way of saying you had the trifecta and superfecta ?   Your posted tickets with 6 horses, did you actually play 7 horses this time ?  It's just funny because you did the same thing in the Preakness, you posted your bets with no mention of ROC, then after the Preakness you posted that you hit a few exactas...I asked you about it but you ignored it.

08 Jun 2014 8:46 AM
Coldfacts

CC1 finished 6th in his 1st G1 and won his 1st G1 in his 10th start. Tonalist is undefeated in his two grades races over 9F & 12F in 5 starts..

Tonalist covered 46.5F in his first 5 starts whereas CC1 covered 27F. Who do you seriously believe is the better colt? With all his foundation, hype and old school training method he was unable to defy history which you refuse to respect and totally disregard.

08 Jun 2014 8:49 AM
Coldfacts

JayJay,

I did not play the super. As I have advised in the past I pay close attention to the appearance of horses during the post parade. I thought the horse that looked the best was Tonalist followed by Commissioner.

I wrote about Mr. Pletcher success with horses with A P Indy in their 1st & 2nd generations.  While Commissioner was not in my posted tickets he was included in my exts & tris. The double was a another good return for me as I keyed Mr. Ramsay's horse with my top five in the Belmont. It returned $116 for $2.  

Pre-race tickets are not casted in stones.

08 Jun 2014 9:01 AM
Coldfacts

Previously posted:

"What’s the point of running Social Inclusion in the Woody Stephens? He is not a sprinter. He is a top class colt with excellent tactical speed. The Stephens would be a retrograde step. Take off the blinkers and enter the Belmont."

08 Jun 2014 9:14 AM
Brontexx

Whopee I picked the winner of the Belmont and the Manhatten and the Met Mile but oh no got 2nd in the True North those are THE ONLY RACES I BET.

Now back to picking winners daily and year round.

08 Jun 2014 9:40 AM
Rusty Weisner

People shouldn't claim winners they haven't posted, if only for the sake of decorum.  I post my picks because I like the company (mostly) and am here to learn.

08 Jun 2014 9:58 AM
Brontexx

Keelerman Id like to hear the owners view of the state of horseracing in 2014 and how it compares to THE PAST like the 70s.Do you think you could get Steve COlburn to answer some questions?I know you are a writer and you tow the company line,but you can always edit what he says and if you do a live interview change the time that the post reads.

08 Jun 2014 10:00 AM
Rusty Weisner

...back on the subject of that fulminating fool:

If he doesn't like the conditions for the Belmont Stakes he can always run in an allowance or claiming race.  If can send his horse to the NBA or someplace else where they have a playoff system.  

08 Jun 2014 10:01 AM
Rusty Weisner

Pedigree Ann,

I could probably complain about the ride, too, but to me it was still clearly the distance.  It seemed he was afraid of going with Commissioner because he knew he needed to pace his horse.  I knew it was over on that interminable turn where he was going wide:  of course he didn't have any kick coming out of it; it's a 12f race, not a 10f one.  

08 Jun 2014 10:05 AM
Rusty Weisner

Meant: "OR he can send his horse to the NBA...".

08 Jun 2014 10:06 AM
JayJay

Coldfacts :  You posted 3 tickets with the superfecta format, now you're saying you didn't play the superfecta.   If you're posting tickets and claim it's not set in stone then why post them ?  You talked about CC2 and Wicked Strong a lot more than Commissioner.   It's hard to take your word for it when you have your so called "evaluation" and a "handicapping angle" which you still haven't explained the difference.  I can now claim I had the tri and super as I had initially picked Tonalist and was one of the first ones to mention that Commissioner will run big in the Belmont.   I can claim that I read Haskin's blog about Medal Count being a live longshot and with Chrome finishing fourth, that completed my superfecta.   Anything I posted before about Chrome as my single  is not set in stone....so I guess that means I hit the trifecta and superfecta myself... YAY ME !   Look if you did hit the tri and exactas, good for you, if you didn't, you're the only one that knows it and if you can live with it then good for you...but people generally read what you post and your posts did not reflect any winning combinations.

Where did I post that I do not respect and disregarded Tonalist's Belmont win ?   I'm commenting on your post about Tonalist being a better horse than Chrome and I stated reasons why he's not based on your "cold facts".

Comparing Tonalist's and Chromes first five starts is one of the most ridiculous things I've ever read here and I'm surprised it came from you lol...it just didn't make any sense.    Chrome was 2 yrs old when he ran his first 7 races.   Tonalist had one start in 2013 and he came in 4th.

Also, if you're going to use history, please be consistent.   You can't say that the structure of the TC didn't impact the triple crown winners of the past and not apply it to the last 20 years, but you use the last 20 years to argue about the "fresher" horses.   Your "fresher" horses angle actually confirms how the structure of the TC impacts any chance of a triple crown sweep.   Again, if you're going to use history, you have to be consistent, you can't pick and choose what you want to support your argument.

08 Jun 2014 10:19 AM
Rusty Weisner

JayJay,

Heck, he talked about Matuszak, too.

Coldfacts,

You picked Tonalist.  Good job.  What more congratulations do you need?

08 Jun 2014 10:58 AM
Rusty Weisner

Little Bill,

Which one -- the Hudson or the Mississippi?  Because Saratoga Springs is on the West bank of the Hudson.

08 Jun 2014 10:59 AM
Coldfacts

Rusty Weisner,

I neither request not expected any congratulations. Its just a horse race and not life.

I made posts about several horses. One horse an exotic wager does not make.

This is not a forum where contributors verbalized their opinions.

08 Jun 2014 11:33 AM
derbygal

Keelerman;

From DRF.

Espinoza didn’t have a concrete reason why California Chrome was flat on Saturday, but the colt was seen to have blood coming from his right front foot, known as a grabbed quarter, as he walked back through the tunnel after the race. Espinoza believes it may have occurred coming out of the starting gate.

08 Jun 2014 11:52 AM
Little Bill

Mississippi. After those stupid comments they might find out what this game can be.

08 Jun 2014 12:04 PM
Brontexx

Jay Jay Coldfacts put me down for all others the next time Tonalist faces CC.By that time one or both of them will be in stages of their form cycle where they have ran one or two tough races in  row and now both face a tougher field which could include older horses.

08 Jun 2014 12:04 PM
Brontexx

Steve Colburn is blaming Materhorn and Tonalist for his defeat.I told you Materhorn would make some noise,he beat both Matuszak and CC2.

08 Jun 2014 12:06 PM
Brontexx

If anyone is implying that I am lying about my picks when I posted this I will bet 500 and then I will allow you records to my 2 ADW sites that I made my bets this weekend.

Whopee I picked the winner of the Belmont and the Manhatten and the Met Mile but oh no got 2nd in the True North those are THE ONLY RACES I BET.

Now back to picking winners daily and year round.

In my case I dont need to receive congradulations for winning picks I dont need to win contests picking in numerous races that I wouldnt bet real money on and I have been playing this game and winning for 20-25 years there is nothing I can learn on this blog that I can apply on a daily basis from all the writers and historians that post on the blog.

08 Jun 2014 12:13 PM
Brontexx

I am a horseplayer with real money my opponents are not handicappers.I play against the odds and the pari-mutual betting pools exotics and the WPS pools.

08 Jun 2014 12:16 PM
Pedigree Ann

But Rusty, sitting up alongside and just behind the speed is how Chrome has won all of his races this year; trying to experiment with another way to run in the Belmont would have been plain foolish. Why did Victor let General A Rod come up and take his place? And why did he allow Tonalist to keep him hemmed in on the rail? The only way Chrome COULD have won the race is to run it his way. Victor ought to have trusted his horse and given him a chance to show his stuff.

By the way, I do not think you can did not stay; at the top of the stretch, he was 2 lengths behind the leader - at the finish, he was 1 length + 2 heads behind the leader. He maintained his position relative the the front end and even improved it a bit, which after his bizarre positioning, speaks to his heart and determination. General A Rod didn't stay; Ride on Curlin didn't stay; Matuszak didn't stay; Matterhorn and Commanding Curve didn't stay. But the top 5 horses finished within a length and a half of each other; all ran 12f in 2:28 and a fraction, which is decent time.

08 Jun 2014 12:26 PM
Brontexx

Thats 4 contributions in a row still no tiny humans armed with whips in sight.

I am not a handicapper IMO the only ones at the track that can be considered that way are the track secretaries.Now there are a lot of handicrappers walking around like chickens with their heads cut off after takin their copies of the DRF to the john as stool reading.

08 Jun 2014 12:36 PM
Brontexx

Handicap from wilopedia Handicap race, horse racing with extra weights added to stronger horses.

I dont think any of you gamblers or players do that only racing secretaries.

08 Jun 2014 12:40 PM
Brontexx

The people in business selling picks and programs want you ALL to consider yourselves HANDICAPPERS so you can continue to buy THEIR PRODUCTS.

08 Jun 2014 12:42 PM
KY VET

What an ignorant idiot!....Coldcuts picks a winner!!! The difference between him and me is, he doesnt understand that chrome went off form......coldcuts doesnt realize that the race wasnt that strong......i dont even have to see the beyer to know it was low......The whole story, was that the best horse was going to be tired.............coldcuts is a contrarian.....the horse ran 6 races in a row that were better than tonalist......i made 1700 profit, and i know that......tonalist didnt even run great......to be great at this game, you have to know what happened......coldcuts is a boob!

08 Jun 2014 12:51 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Did I miss something ?  When did Cali Chrome become a car with the same response every time ?  Why can't you except the fact that, as indicated by the trainer after the Preakness, he was a tired horse ?  Did Sherman used those words after the SA Derby or the KY Derby ?  As you well remember,  I made a point of emphasizing the importance of that statement here on May 21.  Clearly,  both warnings fell on deaf ears.

Still, despite the interview moments after the race when the jock's first statement was "he was tired",  you search for excuses.

08 Jun 2014 1:01 PM
KY VET

How stupid are the people that want to change the triple crown to make it easier? Really? easier? It is the complete reverse.....it would make it way harder......running a horse in two weeks is BAD for the horse......PERIOD! This makes it WAY WAY EASIER TO WIN THE TRIPLE CROWN! Why? the preakness is always easy to win because the only horse that should run, is the derby winner! most skip it, because  there isnt a reason to run...........put 5 weeks = more competition.....ie harder race.......you want to win the triple crown? dont run in 4 fast races in a row before the derby! The fault is with the trainer/owner..............

08 Jun 2014 1:02 PM
Plod Boy Phil

The truth of the matter is that the Triple Crown has no impact on the people that drive this game - the collective horseplayers that bet millions of dollars through the window 365 days a year.

08 Jun 2014 1:12 PM
predict

Maybe if Chrome had been wearing his "Sketchers" he wouldn't have grabbed that quarter.....

What a bunch of #$%^

08 Jun 2014 2:35 PM
Rusty Weisner

Plod Boy Phil,

He said much the same stuff before the Preakness, the two weeks is tough, I don't like to run him so soon.  Had he lost there you could have pointed to those statements, too.  

I didn't make good bets this year, with two tired horses as my second and third picks (CC & ARod), but all these people claiming to know the horse is tired, well, color me skeptical -- last year two "tired" horses, who ran all three TC legs, filled out the tri in the Belmont.  

I agree the TC format doesn't need changes.

08 Jun 2014 2:54 PM
Secreteriat

Brontexx,

For your information I drive a Lexus ES 360 bought with real money made these last 3 month. The license plate reads Texas Chrome.

End of story.

Next stop B C when Palace Malace and CC finish 1/2.

08 Jun 2014 2:57 PM
Rusty Weisner

Brontexx,

I didn't accuse you of making up picks.  My comment was addressed to Coldfacts.  It rubs me the wrong way, just like you, when people claim fantastic exotic payoffs when they haven't posted them.  I don't mind losing, and still less do I mind other people winning.  

You're a basket case on a par with Steve Coburn for all this carping about what a lousy place this is and what a great player you are.  I don't get it.  Every other handicapper I've met has had a convivial nature.

08 Jun 2014 2:59 PM
Rusty Weisner

Pedigree Ann,

I don't think any ride would have won him the race yesterday.  Sure, he "held", but he needed to do better.  If he had been in a better tactical position he wouldn't have been able to "kick" and "separate" and would have been caught anyway (how I imagined the race running).  My reaction was that his abilities were attenuated over the 12f distance, and I felt like Espinoza knew it and was scared off by Commissioner or something.  

I want to know what happened to my dud of a pick, Wicked Strong.  He looked like he was following CC; I thought he had a great chance when he hooked onto him like that.  Then he disappeared and was coming again at the end.  Disappointing.

08 Jun 2014 3:19 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Rusty -

Please tell me can't actually understand (or even try for that matter) any of what he writes ?  If you can,  my opinion of you,  and your extensive vocabulary,  would be greatly diminished.

Best.

08 Jun 2014 3:26 PM
Rusty Weisner

Plod Boy Phil,

It was actually unfair to Steve Coburn.  At least I understood what that sore loser was saying.

Best at the windows.  See you next year...well, maybe sooner.

08 Jun 2014 3:35 PM
KY VET

plod boy get it.......rusty, your wicked strong peaked in wood.....plus he runs like he has a problem......listen, you people pick these horses AFTER THEY FIRED THEIR BEST........learn from your mistakes....its how they come up to the race! Look at plod boys comment....they are not machines.........

08 Jun 2014 3:49 PM
Rusty Weisner

I left some money on the table (about $300), but no regrets.  My biggest regret of this or any other year was my behavior at the Derby, when I lost a ton on the undercard and didn't follow through with my non-horizontal Derby picks.  I wish I had played with the discipline I had yesterday, when I made a couple bold plays but lost only $40 on the undercard.  I pulled the trigger on my big bet of the day, so that'll have to be a moral consolation.

I'm now slightly down on the year after using up all my winnings from a huge lucky score at the Bluegrass.

08 Jun 2014 3:57 PM
Brontexx

Secreteriat

Brontexx,

For your information I drive a Lexus ES 360 bought with real money made these last 3 month. The license plate reads Texas Chrome.

Good for you sir.

Rusty Weisner

I didn't accuse you of making up picks.  My comment was addressed to Coldfacts.Acknowleged It seems Mr Coldfacts has stepped up his game,but CC2 was still a sucker play and next year we will probably see Dallas Stewart running a closer at FGs that if he qualifies for the KD will also qualify for the WISE GUY HORSE AWARD.

You're a basket case on a par with Steve Coburn for all this carping about what a lousy place this is and what a great player you are.  I don't get it.  Every other handicapper I've met has had a convivial nature.

I have never complained about this blog or the bloggers I am open minded and I create blogs to see who responds to them.I am not a handicapper I am a horseplayer.Steve Colburn has had his fun now he can enjoy the gains provided by CCs exploits and he will be able to drink single malt instead of the cheap sh*t that gives one a loud mouth buzz.

08 Jun 2014 6:39 PM
Coldfacts

Rusty Weisner,

I am not into posting picks. it's not what I do. I like to view horses in the post parade before I make my wagers. If I post certain horses that I like before a race and other impact me a lot more I will make substitutions.

I assume you are an adult. If a horse is omitted from posted picks, does one have to rush back to the blog and summit supplementary picks? Stop being silly.

On Saturday I wagered on several winners Sweet Reason and Close Hatchet included. I did not post them a my selections. I posted the horses that were under consideration for my Belmont wagers. Commissioner was not included but he was not eliminated. I reposted a submission I made regarding his trainer's record with A P Indy connected horses.

Why would it be difficult you to imagine that I would have used him in my wagers.

Your time would be better spent not playing the role of doubtful Thomas.

08 Jun 2014 10:15 PM
Coldfacts

KY Vet,

"He doesnt understand that chrome went off form”

I am going to try to be polite although in your case it is unwarranted. You continue to post statements that indicate you remain stuck on stupid. CC1 was bet down to 3-5. It therefore means you were the only one that was aware that he went off form.

My specification that he would not win the Belmont had nothing to do with his form. His trainer reported that he was doing better the weeks leading up to the Belmont than the same periods before the Derby and Preakness. However, you have some how concluded that he went off form. How far was he beaten? Your nonsense knows no bounds.

“He doesn’t realize that the race wasn’t that strong”

Empty barrels will always make the most noise. The 10F split for the 2:02.43. The average winning time for the Kentucky Derby is 2:02 and a bit. The colts came home in 26.09. The 2014 final time for the Belmont was the 3rd fastest in the last 10 renewals. Only Jazil and Summer Bird recorded faster time during this period. The race was an excellent renewal. If you would do some research you would not pollute the blog with your nonsense.

“The whole story, was that the best horse was going to be tired”

Again another bit of nonsense. The most accomplished horse is not necessarily the best horse. Tonalist is better horse than CC1. A comparison of their first five starts provides overwhelming evidence of this. However, you are so engage in self-glorification that such information will invariably not make it your peanut size brain.

Were the 11 TC winners also tired afar the Belmont and Preakness? Well it did not prevent Secretariat from setting a WR for he distance. Real Quiet lost his bit by a NS.

“Tonalist didn’t even run great”

Are you brainless or brain dead? The colt won the Belmont in 3rd fastest time in the last 10 year in what was his 5th start and he did not run great.  Where are people like you born and educated? Are you remotely aware that Breeder Cup Classic winner Curlin and Drosselymer recorded slower times in their Belmont's? Triple Crown seekers Real Quite and Silver Charm were defeated in times slower than the one recorded by Tonalist.

You know Kentucky Clown you have the audacity to regard me as a boob. You like so many other male contributors who believe that in this faceless forum respect is an optional and not a requirement, have proven yourselves to be misfits. Some of you guys should not even be allowed near farm animals much less a keyboard.

08 Jun 2014 11:18 PM
JayJay

Coldfacts : Still waiting for your explanation of "evaluating" vs "handicapping"...if you're not into posting your bets, what was that post for ?  Also, you accusing me of disrespecting Tonalist when I have said nothing about his win.   You on the other hand went on a crusade disrespecting and disregarding Chrome's Derby and Preakness wins.   A little bit hypocritical on your end ??

Also, to quote your comment to Rusty :

" Your time would be better spent not playing the role of doubtful Thomas. "

And your previous comment about KY Vet having Tonalist :

" NB: At no time did I see a post from the KY VET  on Tonalist. "

Note : KY Vet did actually post his pick of Tonalist...

I'm finally back to the best weather in the world, California.   My experience in NY was awesome but also very tiring.   After the 7th race, there was no way to make a bet unless you bet your race an hour or two in advance and during the race.   The worst part of my trip was losing my camera...all the videos and pics of contenders gone...well, not gone, someone else is enjoying it.  I lost it after being stupid and leaving it on the benches by the paddock, i was going to sit it out then I heard that Chrome switched to the outside and that's when I went bonkers and ran to the nearest TV and started screaming at the top of my lungs.   I didn't even know I left my camera until after I went inside to get a drink...I hope whoever ended up with it is enjoying it.

Summer races....blah...I'm only playing Australia races this summer.

09 Jun 2014 2:31 AM
JayJay

WTC in the Stephen Foster.   I really hope Lukas recovers from his wacky state of mind and put Saez back on WTC.   I don't know if WTC will ever win again with Stevens riding him.

Tapiture and Conquest Titan back in the G3 Matt Winn...and a horse named Ulanbator ...

09 Jun 2014 3:00 AM
Coldfacts

JayJay,

Regarding the Kentucky Klown I stated that I did not recall seeing his post regarding Tonalist. I subsequently saw some number he posted that included #11. My statement is therefore retracted.

I expected him to post comments his reason for selecting the colt and not part of a complex wager.

He has my apology.

09 Jun 2014 6:11 AM
Coldfacts

JayJay,

“You on the other hand went on a crusade disrespecting and disregarding Chrome's Derby and Preakness wins.”

Disrespect and disregard are strong words. I challenge you to provide examples of same that have come from my keyboard.

I chose not to worship at the altar of the Chrome and remained balance and ration about him. One horse a TC series does not make. However, many comments gave the impression that he was always running against himself and the clock and that he was unbeatable by his peers. Those who were not party to the insanity were maligned. Well the Belmont proved to be the equalizer.

Shared Belief and Constitution are still unbeaten and they have achieved more in the comparative portions of their careers than he did. They proved to be better horses from day one. The same applies to Tonalist.

If stating the cold facts equates to disrespecting and disregarding the seriousness the Chrome syndrome worst than previously assessed.

“I am Still waiting for your explanation of "evaluating" vs "handicapping"

I would think the difference between the two would obvious. However, for you an explanation is required for everything.

While certain aspect of both may overlap, the evaluation of horses on the TC trail is more focused on pedigree, physical appearance, stride pattern, action etc. There are fewer variables involved in the evaluation process for the TC series. Many for unknowns are involved.

When the term handicapping is used in thoroughbred racing it is more attuned to the assessment of a horse’s chances of winning a particular. There are more variables involved. Track conditions, distance, speed, draw, jockey, trainer, weight, form, recovery period etc.

Handicapping can be undertaken using past performances and other historic data from a racing form. The evaluation of thoroughbreds on the TC trail is quite different.

While I do not expect you to agree, I have provided my perspective as to why I consider them separate processes.

Peace!

09 Jun 2014 6:55 AM
Coldfacts

KY VEY,

Correction to previous post:

"Were the 11 TC winners also tired after the Derby and Preakness? Well it did not prevent Secretariat from setting a WR for he distance. Real Quiet lost his bit by a NS."

Read more on BloodHorse.com: cs.bloodhorse.com/.../belmont-146-selections.aspx

09 Jun 2014 6:59 AM
Rusty Weisner

KY VET,

".......rusty, your wicked strong peaked in wood"

Why didn't you tell me sooner?  Oh, right: that's hindsight.

You had a good pick on Tonalist.  You had a "crazy" bet in the Belmont and I was set to congratulate you for fiendish inspiration because you had all the numbers.  Are you telling me you had Commissioner to come in third but not second?  This is something I'll never understand, people trying to finely fillet the spots underneath, like there's some difference between the second and third spots, or even the fourth.  Just box 'em up underneath and put your winner on top!

09 Jun 2014 7:52 AM
JerseyBoy

A fine example of self-righteousness.

A bets on horses.

What does that make A? Well, it makes him a gambler, like other gamblers.

Of course, A might view his activity as “wagering”.

So in A’s eyes how does one view some of these other gamblers?

As “misfits”.

But suppose some of them are also loaded, unlike A?

Well they would be “misfits” too, because they failed to gamble away their earnings and instead spent time improving themselves through industry and education.

Now that is respect.

09 Jun 2014 9:04 AM
Coldfacts

Misfit:

(a) A person whose behavior or attitude sets them apart from others in an uncomfortably conspicuous way.

A persons who is consistently directing unprovoked insults and disrespect to others has a behavior pattern and attitude that sets him apart from others in an uncomfortably conspicuous way.

Just about everybody gambles with the lottery being the draw. However, not every gambler is a misfit.

09 Jun 2014 9:42 AM
Ranagulzion

California Chrome ran terrific in my opinion. In hindsight I think that Victor Espinoza regrets not making full use of the colt's high cruising speed from the #2 hole. Had he gone straight to the lead with those same splits set by Commissioner I believe that he'd have won the race ...but alas hindsight is 20/20 vision.

KY Vet:

Your gamble paid off this time so now you've emerged from your hole and post-Derby crow-eating, spouting a lot of non-sense about the trainer of "Chrome" running him too many times and that Tonalist won even though he didn't run great ...the comedy of your post is only surpassed by its crassitude. The 2014 Belmont Stakes was one of the best ever and the colts that finished 1, 2, 3 had solid stamina-oriented pedigree (with doubt surrounding only the influence of winner's sire, Tapit). The splits and final time was up there with the best ...so brag all you want but put a little moderation and some "cold facts" into your comments my hillarious friend.

Coldfacts:

Tonalist justified your confidence BUT only marginally. California Chrome's loss leaves the 3YO championship door un-bolted but with some freshening up and races shorter than 12 furlongs to come later I think that he'll seal the deal ...Tonalist has it all to do ...and we look forward to Shared Belief's re-emegence into the fray as well as for Social Inclusion to be sorted out and mature. Peace.

09 Jun 2014 10:11 AM
Coldfacts

Ranagulzion

“Tonalist justified your confidence BUT only marginally.”

My dear colleague, I did not specify a margin of victory only a victory.

“In hindsight I think that Victor Espinoza regrets not making full use of the colt's high cruising speed from the #2 hole.”

There was no path to victory for CC1. He was a tired looking colt at the end with very little gallop out as compared to Tonalist. Did you miss the high cruising speed of Tonalist displayed in the Peter Pan? He is a bigger horse with longer strides and better bred for 12F.  CC1 cannot set any pace to dispose of Tonalist and he certainly cannot accelerate away from a horse who rebroke in the Peter Pan after cover a mile in 1:35. I hope they both meet in the BCC.

“ Tonalist has it all to do”

He has only made five starts and has defeated the leading 3YO. Which colt do you believe have the most upsides?

Do you remember Summer Bird who won the Belmont in his 5th start and went on to take the Eclipse for champion 3YO?

09 Jun 2014 12:07 PM
JayJay

Coldfacts :  I can ask the same thing, prove to me that I disrespected and disregarded Tonalist’s win in the Belmont.  I’d love a complete quote though, not the snipped ones you do to make your case…please stop doing that btw, it’s childish.

I totally understand the difference between words evaluating and handicapping.  I like how you twisted it to make it sound like I need explanation when the question was all about your use of both words.  I asked because you use the two words to allow you to comment about each and every horse in the race as your "evaluation" and the have your separate "handicapping" comments.   It's funny how for the Preakness and the Belmont, you didn't mention the top three finishers in your bets and yet, after the race, you claim you hit the exacta and trifectas.   Like I said, if you can live with it...then good for you.   I personally would not make up things in a blog just to claim I can handicap...lol.   So yes, there's a reason why I asked for an explanation but again, you provided nonsense, you knew what I was asking about...it wasn't what the words meant, it was how you used those words.    I do appreciate you not making up new terminologies as you did with the “fresh, fresher and freshest” lol, that still makes me laugh.

I firmly believe that Chrome is the best 3yo colt in the country.  Chrome just couldn’t finish faster than 3 other horses at 12furlongs.  I don’t think he was tired at all, he ran pretty much all the way and still only got beat by 1 and 3/4, that’s actually pretty impressive for someone who is supposedly tired and can’t handle the distance.  He has a good trainer that knows how to take care of horses.   Tonalist is well bred for 12F races and his long strides requires that much distance to get him really going.  The problem is, Belmont is the only 12F race for 3YOs…let’s see him in the Travers and the Classic and see how he does.

After all the things you said about Tonalist, is it safe to assume that if both him and Chrome are in the same race, you will never have Chrome on top ?  Does that line up with what you’re saying ?  Just a simple yes or no.

Another question, what did you think of Chrome's win in the Derby and the Preakness.  Here's your chance to prove you weren't disrespecting him...I'm sure it'll take you a minute to come up with some praise for his two wins....

09 Jun 2014 2:25 PM
Brontexx

So I will assume the Tapit breeding brigade will continue if it is not already doing do.As I posted a couple of weeks before the race If Tonalist wins Winchel LLC will also win because they own Tapit.

09 Jun 2014 2:25 PM
Coldfacts

JayJay

The wagers under consideration involved the following numbers: 1,2,4,6 9, 11. The actual result was 11, 8, 1, 2, and 9. The #8 horse was not cited.

Did I specify an interest in the horse before the Belmont? I  made a submission citing my interest in the colt. I have provided evidence that and it can be verified on Mr. Haskin’s Blog.

I rely a lot on how horses look and I have communicated this to you in the past. Irrespective of what a propose wager is it can be change if my eyes indicate something more appealing another horse. There are many things that influence actual betting as opposed to forecast wagers. Did I beforehand intend to wage a double closing on the Belmont? No! But I actually ended up playing a double using Real Solutions with the five horses. I do no play Pick 3s/4s.

You have insulted me by concluding I have made bets up. Who on this blog am I trying to impress?  I happen to know how dangerous Todd Pletcher is when all eyes are off. I was on bard with Bluegrass Cat at either 35-1 or 45-1 in the Derby. He finished 2nd. I do not need to lie.

09 Jun 2014 3:10 PM
Coldfacts

JayJay

Posted 06 May 2014 10:36 AM on Haskin's Derby Recap: California Dreamin'

“Congratulations are in order for the connections and supporters of California Chrome.  He distinguished himself from the others in an emphatic manner. He was never my choice to win but was never discounted. I wish the connections, supporters and the big chestnut continued success in the remaining legs of the TC.”

“I was disappointed particularly in how the race unfolded and with the race in general. Now, this is taking nothing away from CC’s victory as he was much the best.”

09 Jun 2014 3:18 PM
KY VET

Anyone with a brain should know what happened......chrome did not run his race.....why even argue? Tonalist won barely....i loved him.....it was christmas day and feel like i hit the ball over the fence and the fielder robbed me! big deal i made 1700! i was telling everyone at the track its like christmas.....i won, but missed thew opportunity...........coldcuts doesnt understand anything.....the time was slow.....this is why after a mile and a half, there were so many horses close at the wire......thats all you need to know to know the time wasnt good.......oh.....how about the beyer? 100......thats very weak!......what beyer did tonalist run the race before?   oh! his beyer went down? huh? i guess thats not enough proof......look......whats up with the coldcuts' posts? He just posts a quote of someones and says how the quotes dont make sense........whack job city!

09 Jun 2014 3:19 PM
KY VET

Every situation is different.....i am not a trifecta player.....this situation was a huge opportunity, if you thought the wonder horse would run out.......alot of people were buying tickets not to be cashed on the fav.........they dont know what i know, i was right and missed.......this is the game.....

09 Jun 2014 3:28 PM
KY VET

hey plod boy! The guy still doesnt know what a variant is...........

09 Jun 2014 3:29 PM
JayJay

A Travers re-match may not happen because of his injury but who knows, they said they can heal it up in 2 weeks.  

Coburn went on GM today and apologized.  I also would like to apologize for not commenting on the win by Tonalist, I was caught up in emotions and was in tears when Chrome failed to win the Triple Crown...okay, I'm kidding and no I'm not that important.  I'm sure the connections of Tonalist could care less lol.

Ranagulzion : I know you still have some hope for SI but the horse needs a new trainer.  His stock is going down down down.  I personally don't think he's a superhorse, I didn't pick him in the Preakness but played him in the Stephens, and that proved to me he's as regular as they come.   He again was matched eye to eye and he folded.   The only way he'll win again is to just gun it from the gate and let them catch him.  I don't know why they keep making the horse rate.  Everytime you see him move on the final turn, it's a 1 furlong move and then fizzes out.  I'm sure his owners are probably screaming at each other for not taking the 8M...and the potential buyers were thanking them and with a big "WHEW!"

09 Jun 2014 3:38 PM
Rusty Weisner

KY VET,

You missed because you had Commissioner for third but not for second?!  I looked at your ticket and that was the only difference I saw between the two and three slots.  Why didn't you just play all of the underneath horses in BOTH slots, at least on your Tonalist key ticket? -- It wouldn't have cost that much extra!  I feel for you, because both the handicapping and the scheme was brilliant, but do you realize how stupid the execution was?  

09 Jun 2014 4:56 PM
Brontexx

Since many of you are going over the Belmont bet here is my 50cent tri 9/10,11/1,3,5,7,10,11  but I used Wicked Strong in place and show and Tonalist in the win spot.I also used Commish,Medal Count, and Wicked Strong and Arod to win.I had CC in the DD with Real Solution.So I won some money but not the entire wad that was possible.

09 Jun 2014 5:31 PM
Brontexx

If Commish,ARod,Medal Count or WS win I win DD.I also had Tonalist in winning DD.My abilty to control all those colts with a great ROI was because I singled Real Solution in the first leg.I didnt pick Real Solution based on any piece of paper (PPs),I picked it because trainer Chad BRown was overdue for a good finish that day he had a number of horses finish off the board.Its called the LAW OF AVERAGES.Of course I hedged in the place and show pools.

09 Jun 2014 5:42 PM
Brontexx

I also looked at the odds board for the Manhatten he was sinkle digit odds as were several in the field.If he would have been an outlier in the odds and double figures odds I would noy have made that bet.I put the percentages in my favor and I was right in the sense that he ran a good race had a good trip and won a close finish.I didnt use the PPs to try to figure out his chances compared to the others too much trouble when I know by looking at the oddsboard that the race is up for grabs and there

werent any even money or less horses which win or come in the money at a high percentage.

09 Jun 2014 5:54 PM
Brontexx

I just looked at the results to see if I forgot something I might have been thinking when I made my wager and there was there were 5 single digit odds horses and it was a ten horse field.Over the years I discovered that in ten horse fields the top five betting choices win more than half the time especially when the top five are single digit odds.

09 Jun 2014 6:01 PM
Brontexx

I thought I had a 50 50 chance for Real Solution to win or at least hit the board and I bet enuff so that I would win money and cover my DD bets.

with just a 3rd place finish.

I am a horseplayer not a handicapper.

09 Jun 2014 6:06 PM
JayJay

Coldfacts :  When you posted that you do not recall KY Vet mentioning Tonalist, what was the point of that comment ?   You were questioning whether he actually had the horse after the race, if I hadn’t told you, you’d continue to think he was lying about his pick of Tonalist.  You posted some kind of “interest” in a lot of horses in the field.  You posted 3 sets of tickets where Tonalist was singled.  It reflected your comments about Tonalist being your main pick to win the Belmont,  but it’s also weird that in 2 of those tickets, you had Chrome on 2nd against your horses CC2 and WS.   It’s that kind of contradictions which makes me question your posts.   You had 5 other horses in your “pool” of bets, Commissioner was not one of them.   All that made me believe that your bets would consist of a combination of the 5 horses underneath Tonalist and maybe have CC2 and WS on top for your backup bets since those two were the ones you were touting would finish ahead of Chrome.   You had commented on just about every horse in the field, the only horse you didn't comment on was Matterhorn, so regardless of who hit the board, you can claim you had some interest in them.  I bet if Chrome had beaten Tonalist, you'd say you had a saver "just in case" bet.  There’s no insults intended in any of my posts to you, I question your posts just as you question others.  I also firmly believe you were trying to impress ME! lol

09 Jun 2014 10:56 PM
KY VET

jay jay.....you say that si isnt that good.......youre like most on here.....because a horse loses, he isnt that good.......Ranag each year makes the same mistake, he gets wowed by a great performance....then boasts about how great the horse is....ranag was not wrong, the horse freaked that race he beat honor code. He ran one of the top races of any 3yr old this year, then ran worse.......why did he run worse? The obvious answer, is the late start si got......it indicates a problem.....a horse with a problem, blows himself up by running a huge race...........saying he wasnt good is not true....he just regressed.......

09 Jun 2014 11:03 PM
JayJay

KY Vet : He won an allowance race against a comebacking Honor Code who after that race has not raced since.   He showed how "good" he is with his 3rd place finish in the Wood, another 3rd place finish in the Preakness and then shortened up and again finished 3rd.   I guess he's been "regressing" since March 12th...

Do you think he's worth $8M ??  Would you pay $8M for him now ?   Would you pay $1M for him ?  Heck, would you pay $500K for him ?  Can you enlighten us mere bloggers why he is good ?   I said after the Preakness that they should focus on the BC Mile as I thought he had a much better chance of winning going shorter but the Stephens showed me he either has no fight or he's just not good...plain and simple.  He could learn to win again if they drop him down in class, and he might improve as a 4 yr old but right now, he's not a good horse.  I'm basing it on his record.   What do you base your assumption that he's good ?

10 Jun 2014 12:54 AM
JerseyBoy

JayJay:

Your insight is commendable.

I keep remembering the adage:

"Oh what a tangled web we weave,

When first we practise to deceive"

10 Jun 2014 7:49 AM
Coldfacts

JayJay,

There is a contributor whose ID is 'Drink From A Glass' the next you see a post from him, ask him the type of gambler I am. Most of my big winning tickets I key the horse I like with All. He will confirm that I pay careful attention to the physical appearance of horses. You know very little about my wagering methodology and he will enlighten you.

You have latched on to this issue despite the fact that wagers under consideration before a race can be changed come race time.

The only reason I posted the horse under consideration was because you kept insisting. Its not what I do on regular basis.  These forecast wagers are done with an element of dsrkness.

You noted that I commented on every horse. You are heading straight into the category of the KY VET.

Samraat: I only commented on that colt when he was highlighted by Pedigree Ann. I specified that he would require an oxygen tank in the last 2F.

General A Rod: I commented when the moderator cited he was a late addition to the field.

Medal Count: I did not comment on that colt as I was high on him from the Derby.

Wicked Strong was not commented on as he was my pick for the Derby.

Matterhorn: No comments

ROC: My comments were submitted when another contributor selected him. I highlighted he was from The Mr. P line that has dominated the Belmont. I did not like him. He finished last.

Commissioner: I submitted and extensive summation on him on Mr. Haskin's blog and I was attacked by the CC1 faithfuls. From day one I specified he would require every inch of he Belmont distance to win a TC race. Did you make those comment early? Did you cite his trainer Belmont record? Did you site the success his trainer has with A P Indy connected horses in the Belmont?

The only horses I commented on extensively on this blog were Matuszak, Tonalist and CC2. I submitted an extensive summations on Tonalist on Mr. Haskin's blog and it was not posted. Maybe to prevent further attacks from the CC1 faithfuls.

You have a tendency to latch on to issue that lead nowhere. If this policy floats your boat, sail on.

10 Jun 2014 8:11 AM
Coldfacts

“I bet if Chrome had beaten Tonalist, you'd say you had a saver "just in case"

My selection in the Derby was Wicked Strong. He was beaten by CC1. Did I indicate I had saver? My selection in the Preakness was beaten by CC1.  Did I indicate I had saver? I initially excluded RON from my wagers under consideration but he was included in boxed wager for the exacta.

You are going to great lengths to discredit me and I find it extremely distasteful. This concludes our exchanges.

10 Jun 2014 8:26 AM
Brontexx

Eventhough the law of averages is considered a fallacy by mathmeticians who are using statistics as their proof,in real life application it works I proved it over a years time.And I proved again this time only comming out even over a years time while only playing mostly WPS and not playing as many exactas as I did when I multiplied my ADW account in 2010.

While pure mathmeticians will try to disprove my statement horse racing itself is not a science and using Past Performances as a guide to what will happen today is also a fallacy.The best gamblers that use PPs as their guide are using angles to come up with their picks.I believe I am doing the same but in my own way without having to refer to any past performance.If I have the PPs I am not so arogant that I will not at least look at the horse that I intend to play as a confirmation of my ideas,and this was the case for Real Solution as he had a good in the money record on the turf at Belmont.He didnt have any wins on the turf at Belmont but thats one of the reasons why his odds were between 5-6 to one.

IMO the betting odds are the most mathemeticaLlY correct data that one can attain before the race actually starts.After stating this the oods will be wrong 66% of the time long term.A horseplayer should find a way to play horses other than the post time favorite as favorites only win 33% of the time.

I do play favorites but I use them in the exacta pools to extract the value that they dont provide in the WPS pools.I always use the WPS to cover my exotic bets.

10 Jun 2014 8:59 AM
Brontexx

When it comes to games of chance I think of myself as a practical thinker and believe in a motto used for another endeavor KISS keep it simple stupid.

One of the reasons that the betting favorite losses 66% of the time is simple there is ONLY ONE FAVORITE IN EACH RACE.I know that a very minute number of races have two favorites but these races are not important as they happen too infrequently.

10 Jun 2014 9:24 AM
Rusty Weisner

KY VET:

"jay jay.....you say that si isnt that good.......youre like most on here"

That's not what most people were saying.  They were saying something was wrong with his preparation and that he was therefore a poor bet for the odds. He was the favorite in the Wood, you recall, and the second favorite in the Preakness, and again the favorite in the Woody Stephens.  Did he beat the odds in any of these races?  I don't get why you're knocking people for being right on the subject.  Your motto is "Watch and learn."  If you had a nicer demeanor and better manners someone might have paid closer attention to you before the Belmont and helpfully suggested, "hey vet, it's okay to leave money at the track, but don't leave any regrets:  make sure to put that 8 in both spots underneath!"

10 Jun 2014 10:11 AM
JayJay

Colfacts : So it all boils down to "Drinks From A Glass"... another blogger that will set this discussion straight...LOL...are you seriously asking me to check with another blogger ??  Come on man, give me a reasonable explanation and stop treating me like I'm stupid.   I don't know why you're getting all hurt about this, I'm not latching on to anything.  I'm asking you questions that you can't give a straight answer to and that's what I persist on...I told you before, if you hit it, then good for you, if not, then you are the one that has to live with it.

It's quite obvious to me what the answer is now so we can move on.  You don't have to address me, never required or requested it...but know that I will ask questions about your posts if I feel like it, you don't have to answer but I will post my question for others to see.

I'm sorry, but who am I discrediting you from ?  This blog ?  You've been on this blog for a long long long time, I don't think I can do anything to discredit you...people already have their opinion of you, they either like you or they don't.   You're giving me too much credit by saying I have the ability to discredit you....but honestly, does it really matter to you ?

10 Jun 2014 2:31 PM
JayJay

Thanks JerseyBoy.

10 Jun 2014 2:32 PM
Brontexx

Blah blah blah blobster,thats a nickname I gave someone in Jr High because that person frequently turned red like a lobster.BTW he didnt like it much because it stuck.Neither did Mark Smith like me to call him Smithenberg because I told my friends he looked German so they must of dropped the enberg when they got to Ellis Island or where ever they came in to the US.

10 Jun 2014 4:37 PM
Ranagulzion

Jay Jay;

Social Inclusion is a top class Grade one caliber horse capable of doing what Will Take Charge did last year and if you can't se that I cant help you ...time will convince you. One race can make a huge difference to people's perception ...all the trainer has to do his fix his problem by time the Haskell and Travers come around ...wait and see Bro.

10 Jun 2014 4:37 PM
Brontexx

I could come up with some nicknames on this blog but Ill keep quiet BTW I thought we were sup-posed to stick to the topic these off topic rants are funny and pique my sense of non-sense.

10 Jun 2014 4:42 PM
JayJay

Ranagulzion : You sound worse than KY Vet trying to defend this horse lol.   Look, it’s okay, you picked the wrong horse, it’s not the end of the world.  If there’s ever a guarantee in the world of horse racing, it’s that you will anoint a triple crown winner every year until you get it right.   What problem does this horse have ?   From what I’ve read, the horse has been doing fantastic before each race.  The owner and trainer agree that he’s in the best health and condition.   Can you please elaborate on this so-called problem ?

I told KY, the horse needs to be dropped down in class to face easier opponents to make him a winner again.  I also said that the only way he’ll win again is to use his speed and gun it from the gate and let them catch him, no one can get close to him to look him in the eye and make him fold.   BTW, I thought that joke was pretty funny,  I was literally having a laugh… “  this is a top class G1 caliber horse “ …..lol, you almost got me to bite on that one but I know you were joking.

10 Jun 2014 7:57 PM
Plod Boy Phil

Just a quick comment regarding the Bloodhorse headline: Tonalist denies Cali Chrome the TC."

A total of three horses beat him. He was denied, he was beaten.

It's the type of misleading headline one might expect at AOL, or a similar site that lacks knowledge of the sport, not from a thoroughbred racing site that is a leader in the industry.

10 Jun 2014 7:59 PM
KY VET

You are missing the point......you all knock horses that lose because they get beat.....i didnt like si.....but i know the day he beat honor code, he was the best 3 yr old at the time....he has problems that made him regress........YOU guys dont understand, that horses change with every race......because he lost doesnt mean he was never good........you think that horses are the same i guess.......quality road was the best horse in america, then lost in the fall.....alot think that meant he wasnt good.......dialed in was good,,,,,bellamy road was really good.......they go off form.........

10 Jun 2014 8:41 PM
JayJay

KY Vet : You KNEW ?!?  You knew that SI was the best horse on March 12th and you're now just telling us ???  Well, that bites because I don't think anyone picked SI to win that day...someone correct me if I'm wrong...I can't remember if anyone did, it was almost 3 months ago.

Tell you what, how about you post the horse that will be the best in the Stephen Foster, it would also be appreciated if you post who will go off form.  I have this theory that some people here (including me) do not believe that you actually know who will go off form and will be the best before the race so just to clear things up for the doubters (that includes me), I'm asking you before the Foster.

Just a note, the Foster is this Saturday, so please post your answer before then.  Looking forward to your answer...I need a winner.

I myself was thinking that Long River might go off form in this race but I'm not a pro.

10 Jun 2014 9:11 PM
Brontexx

KY VET I guess Rooster Coburn got drunk before the race and forgot that he had the best horse and just represented to the world the etiquette a California redneck that loses the triple crown displays when he is on the mike.

11 Jun 2014 12:05 AM
Brontexx

KY VET now all the writers blame the Rooster for all the troubles of the sport and show how a contemporarary redneck acts after getting bombed in the big apple.

Thats funny it reminds me of someone on this blog acts even without whiskey care to venture a guess as to WHO.

11 Jun 2014 12:10 AM
KY VET

Am i typing english? I'm not defending si......i dont like him......he went off form! I said he ran a great race that day.......Listen, you people have no chance at winning in this game unless you see the future.....How did i know si would go off form? first off, he started racing late.....all the reasons for this are not good......next, horses tell you things if you know what to look for.....sweating, nervousness, etc......there is a reason they do this......3rd, if a horse has a problem, a great race hurts them........i could go on and on, but it's like i'm talking to 1st graders...........brontex thinks there is no skill to this game.......i simply know more than you people....its not hard to take your money........keep thinking that i'm lying!

11 Jun 2014 12:44 AM
KY VET

my friends on the inside tell me nbc was worried about the idiot owner before the blow up.........he was seen pounding beers all day............

11 Jun 2014 12:47 AM
JayJay

KY Vet :  Who said you were defending SI ?  You didn't answer my question about the Foster.  You still have time though, anxiously awaiting your expert analysis of who will go off form and who is the best on Saturday.  Unless of course, you wait until Sunday then we're back to square one...or maybe I should say back to 1st grade...

11 Jun 2014 1:50 AM
Brontexx

KY VET .brontex thinks there is no skill to this

game.I have the skill to beat you back to the dumpster you sleep in.

11 Jun 2014 6:51 AM
Brontexx

KY VET my friends on the inside tell me nbc was worried about the idiot owner before the blow up.........he was seen pounding beers all day............

Those friends are on the inside of the bar thats how they know the movements of Rooster Coburn.Did you run out of beer money or betting money first.

11 Jun 2014 6:54 AM
Rusty Weisner

KY VET,

You didn't even need to be on the inside to see it.  This was the behavior of a drunk, and the "shame" he felt afterwards was probably genuine, as it is with drunks when they sober up.  In the feel-good tv special about him and his partner he's a boisterous drinker at one point.  I'm not sure what the message is: drinking and betting don't mix?  It seems to have been worked for this guy.

11 Jun 2014 7:25 AM
Rusty Weisner

KY VET,

"next, horses tell you things if you know what to look for.....sweating, nervousness, etc......there is a reason they do this......3rd, if a horse has a problem, a great race hurts them........i could go on and on, but it's like i'm talking to 1st graders...."

But that's what everyone was saying!  You were making fun of everyone for observing the horse's distress, then said "trust the trainer."  Why don't you make some useful points before the races are run instead of insulting people afterwards, Mr. 8-in-third-only.

11 Jun 2014 7:34 AM
Rusty Weisner

KY VET,

Could you lend Brontexx some of the periods from your ellipses?  He could use some punctuation marks.

11 Jun 2014 7:47 AM
Rusty Weisner

KY VET,

The rich irony of this is that you never even predicted Honor Code (your early choice) would go "off", not even after he was dropped from the Rebel for that Gulfstream allowance race.  

That said, there's a useful and elementary point that you make, one you could make more politely:  you need to pick the horses AFTER they've shown how good they are; I'll keep the advice in mind.  But you're not the only one to realize horses like SI, Dreaming of Julia, Verrazano or Quality Road are bad bets after too-fast races. A little modesty, please.

11 Jun 2014 8:00 AM
Ranagulzion

Keelerman:

Congratulations ...this is a fun blog.

KY Vet: You're a riot sometimes (LOL). I like your response to Jay Jay 11 June 12:44 AM "am i typing english" (LMAO)

11 Jun 2014 9:57 AM
Rusty Weisner

...Add Take Charge Indy to that list.

11 Jun 2014 10:13 AM
Little Bill

SI was was only beaten a hd for second. Bayern may have run the race of his life to win by 7 1/2. It's not like SI quit at the 1/4 pole. Beaten by a better horse that day.

11 Jun 2014 11:10 AM
JayJay

Rusty : Good point about the "trust the trainer"... forgot about that one...lol

Ranagulzion :  That's great you like that response, but did you read his entire response ?  It didn't address my question lol.   I know you're mad cause I picked on your SI....speaking of which, you didn't address my response to your SI comment.   It's like the usual, because you can't, there's nothing wrong with the horse.  I asked the same to KY and he also did not have a response.   The horse is just not good, it must hurt you more because you anointed him as the TC and man, that was a very very very bad and poor pick... it's embarrassing that you picked a horse that can't even make the Derby...that's the first race of the TC jewel!!  Normally, one would pick a TC winner that is already in the Derby at least hahaha.   Seems like your picks gets worse every year...my bieber fanatic niece could've picked a better horse than you I think lol.   You're right, this is a fun blog...

11 Jun 2014 12:56 PM
JayJay

Rusty : Also, your 06/11 8AM post, you should ask Ranagulzion regarding the 1st 3 horses in your list (SI, DoJ and Verrazano), he'll tell you that you're wrong about them, they are top class G1 caliber horses... but you have to wait and see lol.    I don't know how long you have to "wait and see"... seems like indefinite lol.

11 Jun 2014 1:39 PM
KY VET

I will give you 2 contenders in stephen foster that look to go off form.....revolutionary, prayed belief....

11 Jun 2014 9:32 PM
JayJay

Keelerman : Any reason why the Unlocking Winners link was removed from the drop down list for Blogs on the home page ?

KY Vet : Thanks, looking forward to seeing both run this weekend.   Can you explain how you determine the two will go off form ?   Recent races ?  Workouts ?   I mean, if they do lose, you could just have been lucky.   I'd like to be able to identify horses going off form before the race as well....saves me money.   I'm sure others would appreciate you sharing your knowledge with everyone...

11 Jun 2014 10:09 PM
Rusty Weisner

KY VET:

It's "Prayer for Relief".

Thanks for the opinion/prediction.  Elaboration welcome.  I actually take you seriously as a senior contributor.  Here's two I went against recently because I felt something was wrong or that a "regression" was likely: WTC, Normandy Invasion.

Do you have a prediction on Goldencents?  Despite the long layoff he ran a top effort.  NI had problems right away after his comeback.

12 Jun 2014 7:58 AM
-Keelerman

Sorry for my recent absence, everyone! It's been a busy few days! But I'm back now, and working on a new blog post that will go up later today.

JayJay;

I'm not sure why the Unlocking Winners blog would have been removed from the list, but it seems to be back in place now. Perhaps the website was being worked on and they took it down temporarily.

Also, I'm sorry to hear about the disappearance of your camera at the Belmont Stakes! That's really too bad. But at least you have the memories! I hope you had a great time overall!

12 Jun 2014 11:40 AM
Carlos in Cali

If KY VET is a "pro", then I invented the wheel...

12 Jun 2014 1:08 PM
Rock man

I sent an email telling everyone here CC is not going to win as much as I wanted him to. I watched every interview Mr Sherman had during the last 6 month . One thing I kept hearing from team CC was that 1 1/4 no problem

1  3/16 no problem but at 1 1/2 of a mile I noticed faith was not there

Another problem was CC coming out of gate also victor Espinoza not knowing the track at Belmont park

Art Sherman to me is a hall of fame trainer what he did with CC is amazing he was telling us the whole time I hope he comes out of gate without problems he told his team to train him at the gate almost every saying think he should have been with the horse the whole time himself to work him at the gate

If it was me probably twice a day I would just work him at the gate

I would also trust CC could go any distance going outside adding to the long distance was a bad choice by the jockey victor Espinoza had two good choices go to the front when they did open or Waite for a clear path to me going outside took too much out of CC

12 Jun 2014 2:06 PM
Rock man

CC will never loose again

Art Sherman grate trainer

12 Jun 2014 2:09 PM
Brontexx

Rock man CC will never loose again

Art Sherman grate trainer

If they race him against older this year as a 3YO I think he will lose.

12 Jun 2014 5:00 PM
JayJay

Keelerman :  Thanks, and yes, overall it was a great experience and yes I do have the memories.  Oddly, losing my camera, the only two things still vivid in my mind was going to the track at 6:30AM and being able to watch some horses work out....I didn't know who the horses were but it was nice to actually see them work out and I was actually able to spot a lead change on one of them lol.

The other memory was seeing Rosie in person, man she's pretty.

On to the new blog...

14 Jun 2014 1:33 AM

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