Lexie Lou Key To Queen's Plate Day Pick 4 Riches

Pick 4 analysis by Brisnet.com’s Ed DeRosa

$100,000 guaranteed pool races 4-7

The guaranteed pool Pick 4 action on Queen’s Plate day kicks off at 1:23 p.m. EDT with the fourth race on the 13-race card. This sequence sports a $100,000 guaranteed pool and concludes with the first of four stakes on the day, the Grade 2 Dance Smartly for older females going 1 1/8 miles on the turf.

The early sequence appears more likely for chalk than the late, so we’ll tread lightly to begin with the thought of building our bankroll to pursue richer spoils later in the afternoon.

#3 Pender Harbor is the choice to kick things off, turning back on the return to allowance company, a move that worked in his seasonal debut at 7-to-10. Top alternatives are the deuce Run to the Bank whose last three efforts at this course (Woodbine Polytrack) and distance (seven furlongs) were all victorious. If the lack of speed from my top two selections concerns you, then Dan the Tin Man could entice moving off the rail and sporting several triple digit early Pace Ratings.

The second leg (race 5) features the most likely winner in the sequence with #3 Crafty Gizmo making the second start of his career following a debut that lays over any race any horse in this field has run with the exception of #1 Rebel Lioness two back.

Nothing too inspired in leg three (race 6), either, as #2 Spin the King, #3 Proroguing, and #4 Jack Pine each appear on in form, and all would need to regress with a jump up from someone else for anyone but the 2, 3, or 4 to win.

Trainer Malcolm Pierce holds a heavy hand in the Dance Smartly, entering the top two choices on the morning line in favored #4 Deceptive Vision and #2 Overheard. Neither has to win, but the most likely “upsetter” is third morning line choice #7 Theatre Star, who is likely to set the pace with Deceptive Vision tracking. If both go too fast then that could set things up for Overhead. If their pace is reasonable then one of them should win. We’ll throw in #6 as well because the 8-to-1 intrigues on a horse whose form this year appears a notch below, but those spring stakes tries in Kentucky fit with these.

Race

A

B

C

$100k gtd P4

     

4

2, 3, 4

6

1

5

3

1

2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9

6

2, 3, 4

 

1, 5, 7, 9

7

2, 4, 6, 7

 

3, 5

The plays (w/ cost of ticket at $.20 minimum per combination):

1, 2, 3, 4, 6 with 3 with 2, 3, 4 with 2, 4, 6, 7 ($12)

2, 3, 4, 6 with 3 with 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 9 with 2, 4, 6, 7 ($22.40)

2, 3, 4, 6 with 3 with 2, 3, 4 with 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 ($14.40)

2, 3, 4, 6 with 1, 3 with 2, 3, 4 with 2, 4, 6, 7 ($19.20)

2, 3, 4 with ALL with 2, 3, 4 with 2, 4, 6, 7 ($64.80)

The first four tickets cost $68 and that bottom ticket is nearly about that. If all the “A” horses win then this hits for a dollar. Good-looking second-time starters have a way of getting overbet sometimes, though, and if Crafty Gizmo goes down then that last ticket gives me the best chance of a big pay day.

You can add your subtract or lean more heavily on certain horses depending on your convictions. E.g., if you love Craft Gizmo and don’t see how he loses then definitely don’t play that last (or even last two) tickets and instead add some horses on the other tickets.

$250,000 guaranteed pool races 9-12

The first sequence ended with a stakes, and the last sequence begins with one. Actually, it begins with three of them, as the Singspiel and Highlander make up a graded stakes double that begin an all-stakes Pick 3 that concludes with the Queen’s Plate (the Pick 4, however, goes to race 12).

Whereas we tried to sneak in some prices in the early Pick 4 among logical favored contenders, we’re lighting dynamite right off the rip in this sequence, as my best bet of the day is in this race: the Singspiel Stakes going once around the 1 1/2-mile turf oval at Woodbine.

#1 Hampstead Heath has not had a great five-year-old campaign, rolling three straight eighth-place finishes to start, but maybe things weren’t to his liking, as those first two starts came when trying to close wide at Gulfstream and the local seasonal debut off a nine-week layoff was on synthetic where he is winless in five tries.

On the local lawn, Hampstead Heath has two wins and three thirds from seven starts, including a win last year, and he was only 1 ½ lengths behind local legend and 6-to-5 morning line Singspiel favorite Forte dei Marmi in last year’s Northern Dancer.

Hampstead Heath has several efforts in the upper 90s on the Brisnet.com Speed Rating scale, which is not only competitive but also a likely winning performance. At 10-to-1, he’s worth using heavily.

#5 Forte dei Marmi and #6 Aldous Snow are hard to ignore but likely overbet. You hate to go out early on likely winners in a big Pick 4, but they’re just “B”s for me, as I really want to be live to a bunch of numbers if I upset with Hampstead Heath or #4 Dynamic Sky.

Leg two (race 10) is the Highlander, a turf sprint for older males that has a big favorite in 9-to-5 #1 Something Extra who doesn’t have to win. In fact, the thought of beating Forte dei Marmi and Something Extra to kick off this Pick 4 is pretty exciting.

#9 Mr. Online is the top pick shortening up slightly and drawing outside with plenty of speed to chase and getting superstar jockey Javier Castellano. #2 Phil’s Dream is also in this race and got the best of the top pick in last year’s Nearctic, but that came on three-week’s rest after a lifetime best performance, and a maintenance of form is worth the gamble at 6-to-1 on Mr. Online.

I also can’t resist 20-to-1 on #7 Bear No Joke, who is one of only two horses to defeat Phil’s Dream in the past ten months, and his triple digit Brisnet.com Speed Rating capability (he’s done it three times) makes him viable at the price.

Fifteen horses can always make a race seem daunting, but there are some pretty obvious contenders in the Queen’s Plate Stakes starting with favorite We Miss Artie and second choice Lexie Lou—winners of the Plate Trial and Woodbine Oaks, respectively, on Plate Preview day three weeks ago. The former is 8-to-5, and the latter is 4-to-1, and it’s Lexie Lou who earns the top pick designation receiving five pounds from her foes while sporting the best last-out Brisnet.com Speed Rating and a tactical advantage (assuming the post doesn’t hurt too much) as one of only two “E” pace types in the field.

I’m not sure the top two’s odds will be as far apart as the morning line suggests when the gates open, but they’ll unquestionably be the top two wagering choices, and while We Miss Artie wouldn’t shock me, he’s definitely unplayable at the price, which makes Lexie Lou a single on most tickets.

I say “most tickets” because while We Miss Artie is certain to be underlaid, he wins this race enough that if horses like Hampstead Heath and/or Mr. Online wins, I don’t want We Miss Artie to beat me.

#4 Asserting Bear retains Sutherland-Kruse off the Marine Stakes win, and though We Miss Artie got the measure of him in the Spiral by two lengths, the added distance could help this one.

I’ll be reaching for the Xanax if we start this thing with two $20 horses and a $10 Queen’s Plate winner and are live to a bunch in the closing leg, an entry-level allowance turf sprint for older males. #5 Best Bard is the most lukewarm favorite in the sequence at 3-to-1 morning line, but the one I like most, as he fits well with these on the turnback, though admittedly he’s no cinch.

#7 Mey’s Rocket returns to turf and seems to do well with slightly added distance; #4 One For Jack could be fresh off the layoff, and #2 Bear’s Cowboy makes turf debut in second start off layoff for a 16% debut turf sire from a family that’s thrown a turf winner already.

Race

A

B

C

$250k gtd P4

     

9

1, 4

5, 6

2

10

3, 7, 9

1

5

QP14

14

4, 6

2, 8, 9, 10, 15

12

2, 4, 5, 7

3, 6, 8, 9

 

The plays (w/ cost of ticket at $.20 minimum per combination):

1, 2, 4, 5, 6 with 1, 3, 5, 7, 9 with 14 with 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 ($40)

1, 4 with 3, 7, 9 with 2, 4, 6, 8, 9, 10, 14, 15 with 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 ($76.80)

1, 4, 5, 6 with 1, 3, 7, 9 with 4, 14 with 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 ($51.20)

The top ticket is basically a $40 win bet on Lexie Lou with the thought that we’ll get value in the Pick 4 people because A) We Miss Artie will be overbet, and B) people will go too deep in a big field.

The middle ticket goes for the rainmaker in trying to catch prices (none of the five horses are a morning line favorite) in the first two legs and then using all logical contenders in the next two.

The bottom ticket tries to leverage beating We Miss Artie and gives us a chance to double up on Lexie Lou if favorites win elsewhere.

GOOD LUCK!

4 Comments

Leave a Comment:

JayJay

I might play your $12 first ticket in the early P4, since you're singling the 3 who will most likely go off as the heavy favorite and probably the single of the early P4...will do the cheapest ticket you have.

Here's my tickets, hopefully, one of us hits with a nice payout :

$19.20

04:  2, 4, 6

05:  2, 3, 8, 4

06:  3, 10

07:  4, 7, 6, 5

$28.80

09:  4, 5

10:  4, 3, 10

11:  14, 6, 7, 8

12:  3, 7, 1, 5, 9, 6

06 Jul 2014 5:07 AM
JayJay

Nice hit on the late P4, Lexie Lou looked great beating the boys, WMA couldn't close on her.   Hope you played the right ticket and ended up with some profit.

06 Jul 2014 8:14 PM
Secreteriat

Thanks for the selections, hit the .2oc P4 with a $7.40 investment.

07 Jul 2014 5:28 PM
Pedigree Ann

Did you see how little that filly is? If she tops 15h, it's with her lifts on.

09 Jul 2014 9:32 AM

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