Lexie Lou On Top Of James Scully's Queen's Plate Super Hi 5 Analysis

The 1 ¼-mile Queen’s Plate, Canada’s premiere race and the first leg of the Triple Crown for Canadian-bred three-year-olds, proved popular at the entry box with 15 entrants, but a large disparity exists on the morning line, with #6 We Miss Artie (8-to-5) and #14 Lexie Lou (4-to-1) listed as solid one-two favorites with Matador the third choice at 8-to-1, and the other 12 at double digits, including a pair of 50-to-1 bombers.

#15 Ami’s Holiday and #4 Asserting Bear also merit respect in my estimation, but Lexie Lou rates as a strong top selection.

She proved spectacular landing the June 15 Woodbine Oaks, running 1 1/8 miles on Polytrack a full second faster than We Miss Artie one race later when landing the Plate Trial Stakes.

Indeed, her 4 1/2-length win earned her a field-best 96 Brisnet.com Speed Rating—five points higher than We Miss Artie’s Trial and two points better than the favorite’s lifetime best.

Lexie Lou’s tactical speed is an edge here, as the Queen’s Plate lacks confirmed front-runners with our selection being one of only two entrants listed as an “E” pace type, so moderate early fractions appear likely for the 1 ¼-mile event.

Trainer Mark Casse selected post 14, hoping to see a similar trip where Lexie Lou settles comfortably up close before pouncing on the far turn, and the possibility remains that she could show the way with her natural speed. Fillies have more than held their own in the Queen’s Plate, winning 34 times in the race’s history, and Lexie Lou can become the seventh filly since 1962 to sweep both the Queen’s Plate and Oaks.

Lexie Lou can avoid being caught too wide entering the first turn as she employs forwardly placed tactics and distance is little concern with her pedigree: sire Sligo Bay is a son of the legendary Sadler’s Wells—a prime source of stamina.

I am willing to take a stand with the peaking filly and will play her on top in all Hi 5 wagers.

We Miss Artie can’t be eliminated from consideration, but a couple of factors make him potentially vulnerable: 1. his Brisnet.com Speed Ratings are far from overwhelming, registering only a 91 in the aforementioned Plate Trial win, and 2. As a late runner, he could leave himself too much to do behind a marginal pace.

However, he remains an important player underneath for Hi 5 purposes considering he is unbeaten in three Polytrack starts (all stakes) and hails from outstanding Eclipse Award-winning connections trainer Todd Pletcher, jockey Javier Castellano, and owners Ken and Sarah Ramsey.

Ami’s Holiday was a Grade 3 winner at two on Polytrack at Woodbine but made a belated 2014 return, finishing a respectable fourth in the Grade 3 Lexington at Keeneland following a 4 ½-month layoff. The Josei Carroll charge experienced a troubled trip when tuning up for the Queen’s Plate, finishing a neck third in the May 25 Marine before being elevated to second by the stewards, and should be set for his best in the third start off a layoff.

Asserting Bear should relish the 10-furlong distance and has the form to make an impact. Trained by Reade Baker, he turned in his best effort at two when stretching out to 1 1/18 miles against stakes rivals and kept excellent company in his first three starts this year, including a close fourth to We Miss Artie in the Grade 3 Spiral. He was disqualified after finishing first in the Marine but that race served its purpose as a necessary tune-up and we shouldn’t be surprised to see his best here on the stretch out in distance.

We Miss Artie (#6), Ami’s Holiday (#15) and Asserting Bear (#4) are key plays underneath.

The next tier of contenders include a pair of lightly raced, improving types who could jump forward with a strong showing at long odds: Lions Bay (#8) and One Destiny (#11); turf stakes hero Matador (#10), who showed an affinity for the local Polytrack when posting a six-length allowance romp recently; and Man o’ Bear (#5), who ran well when stretching out to nine furlongs in his 2013 finale and is eligible to move forward off his June 15 with the addition of blinkers.

My final grouping consists of Majestic Sunset (#7), a maiden with respectable BRIS numbers and a couple of stakes placings to his credit; Tower of Texas (#12), a late-running type who picks up the services of John Velazquez and is trained by eight-time Queen’s Plate winner Roger Attfield; and Coltimus Prime (#2) and Heart to Heart (#9), who should both be forwardly-placed and are exiting improved efforts.

Queen’s Plate ABC

A                                 B                                             C                                             X

14                                4, 6, 15                                   5, 8, 10, 11                             2, 7, 9, 12

And just for kicks, here’s the field ranked in my order of preference:

14-6-15-4-8-11-10-5-7-12-2-9

Queen’s Plate Super Hi 5 BETS

I’ll recommend five Super Hi 5 wagers for a bigger budget and two tickets for a smaller one.

BIG TICKET ($128.40)

Ticket #1 ($38.40)

14 with 4, 6, 15 with 4, 6, 15 with 5, 8, 10, 11 with 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 15

Ticket #2 ($38.40):

14 with 4, 6, 15 with 5, 8, 10, 11 with 4, 6, 15 with 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 15 

Ticket #3 ($24):

14 with 4, 6, 15 with 4, 6, 15 with 2, 7, 9, 12 with 4, 5, 6, 8, 10, 11, 15

Ticket #4 ($18):

14 with 8, 10, 11 with 4, 6, 15 with 4, 6, 15 with 4, 6, 7, 8, 10, 11, 12, 15

Ticket #5 ($9.60:

14 with 4, 6, 15 with 4, 6, 15 with 4, 6, 15 with 2, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12

SMALL TICKET ($50.20)

Ticket #1 ($28.80):

14 with 4, 6, 15 with 4, 6, 15 with 4, 6, 8, 10, 11, 15 with 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10, 11, 12, 15

Ticket #2 ($21.60):

14 with 4, 6, 15 with 8, 10, 11 with 4, 6, 15 with 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10, 11, 12, 15

The Queen’s Plate Super Hi 5 is a $.20 minimum bet, and with 360,360 combinations in the 15-horse field, it should pay well thanks to the added carryover money.

GOOD LUCK!

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