Turf Milers Take Center Stage at Saratoga

By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman")

There’s no dispute that two-time Horse of the Year Wise Dan is still the king of the turf milers, but with the champ still on the comeback trail after colic surgery, there may be an opportunity for challengers to stake their claim for the throne in a pair of 8.5-furlong turf stakes races at Saratoga this week. Whether they go on to actually unseat Wise Dan at the Breeders’ Cup will not be known for a few more months, but if you’re curious about which horses Wise Dan may have to reckon with this fall, you won’t want to miss these races.

Let’s take a look at who’s running!

National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame Stakes (gr. II)

A total of seven three-year-old colts and geldings have entered this 8.5-furlong turf event, although one—Matterhorn—is entered for the main-track only, leaving a field of six likely to contest the race.

The morning line favorite at 7-5 (and he could potentially go off even lower than that) is Bobby’s Kitten, a horse I have written about extensively in the past. As regular readers of this blog may know, I believe that Bobby’s Kitten possesses as much raw talent as any three-year-old colt in the country, and—down the road—I believe he could even give Wise Dan a scare going a mile, which is not very easy to do!

But at the present time, Bobby’s Kitten has a few issues that make him vulnerable to being upset. For one, he is rather headstrong, and while he doesn’t necessarily have to have the early lead, one never knows when he might over-react to being kept off the pace and turn in a poor effort. He did so three starts back in the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I)—in which he finished twelfth, beaten 25 ½ lengths—and again last time out in the Belmont Derby (gr. I), where the ten-furlong distance may have also contributed to his 14 ½-length defeat.

In between those two dismal showings, Bobby’s Kitten successfully rated in second place early on in the $500,000 Penn Mile before going on to score by nearly three lengths with a sharp :23.58-second final quarter mile.

Determining which version of Bobby’s Kitten will show up on Friday is not an easy task, but the presence of So Lonesome makes me think that an upset may be in the offing. In his last two starts, So Lonesome has recorded six-furlong fractions of 1:08.33 and 1:08.81, as well as half-mile fraction of :44.57. With that kind of speed, it’s difficult to envision So Lonesome failing to secure the early lead, which could make things challenging for Bobby’s Kitten, who must either try to match strides with So Lonesome (probably not desirable) or rate off the pace (will he or won’t he?)

So my selection to spring a mild upset is Give No Quarter. Trained by Graham Motion, the colt ran four times as a two-year-old with moderate success, but after a layoff of nearly eight months, Give No Quarter returned in an 8.5-furlong turf allowance race at Belmont Park and turned in by far the best effort of his career. Reserved seven lengths off the early pace, Give No Quarter gradually advanced throughout the race, then burst clear of the field in the homestretch to win by 3 ½ lengths in the quick time of 1:40.07 seconds. Best of all, he ran his final five-sixteenths of a mile in approximately :29 seconds, which is an exceptional time. With that race under his belt, Give No Quarter could certainly be even sharper this Friday, and with So Lonesome and Bobby’s Kitten likely to ensure a quick pace, I believe Give No Quarter will rally past them both in the homestretch to pick up his first graded stakes victory.

Fourstardave Handicap (gr. II)

As mentioned previously, it’s not easy to give Wise Dan a scare going a mile, but that’s exactly what Silver Max did in last year’s Shadwell Turf Mile (gr. I), actually defeating the two-time Horse of the Year in a shocking upset. Granted, that was over a rain-soaked Polytrack course, and the race was actually run at a mile and a sixteenth, but that’s beside the point.

Silver Max is the kind of horse I would love to own. From twenty-four starts, he has won twelve, including ten stakes races. At the end of last year, he finished fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Mile (gr. I) after tracking a blazing pace. Off an eight-month layoff, he won the Firecracker Handicap (gr. II) at Churchill Downs on June 28th in gate-to-wire fashion, clocking a mile in a sharp 1:34.21 seconds.

There are other talented horses in this field as well, including Seek Again, who lost the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic Stakes (gr. I) to Wise Dan by just a head earlier this year. Cutting back in distance to a mile after racing at longer distances should help strengthen his finishing kick. But even still, I can’t see him edging Silver Max at this distance.

Jack Milton won the Poker Stakes (gr. III) at Belmont in a quick 1:33.09 seconds, then finished a respectable fifth behind Obviously in the Shoemaker Mile Stakes (gr. I) at Hollywood Park. But as talented as Jack Milton is, catching Silver Max could prove a major challenge.

Granted, Silver Max is not perfect. He has lost his fair share of major races. On occasion, he has been badly beaten in races in which he should have run well. But during the last year, he has not turned in a single poor performance, and he figures to improve substantially in his second start of the year.

To put it simply, Silver Max is my selection to win the Fourstardave.

To try and add value to the exacta and/or trifecta, I will be giving Sayaad a close look. The Shadwell colt has won three straight races on the turf, including his seasonal debut on July 4th in the Forbidden Apple Stakes at Belmont. He seems to be on the rise and certainly has the potential to be involved at the finish. With the three favorites like to draw much of the wagering attention, Sayaad may get overlooked a bit in the betting, despite his solid credentials.

Who do you like this week?

116 Comments

Leave a Comment:

JayJay

Keelerman:  I don't think Bobby's Kitten will have any problems rating off of So Lonesome who I believe will fold.  With BK tracking close, he'll take over at the top of the stretch and win by many lengths, too far for GNQ to catch him.  This is a weaker field than what he's been facing and he just towers over these.  I'll probably do a part wheel ( 7 with 1, 3 with 1, 3, 5, 6 ) for my tri and super.

I like Grand Arch as the longshot in the Fourstardave, will probably just box 1, 3, 6 for the trifecta and play .50 super with those 3 on top (1,3,6 with 1,3,6 with 1,3,6 with 2,4,5)

Good luck this weekend !

07 Aug 2014 6:23 PM
Brontexx

Relatively small field this week for the stakes race.

Off topic best day of the meet today for BPM the reciprocal of yesterday.

7 starters 3 1sts 3 2nds  and 3 exactas  86% 1st and 2nd 100% exactas as all the starters were in 3 races.

GL to all.

07 Aug 2014 6:26 PM
TnT

Lost my every BPM yesterday, they turn up today, when I didn't bet.

Can't see anyone challenging Bobby's Kitten, he's a true miler, surprised not entered in the Fourstar.

Seek again has great potential, not often Spieghtown's go longer than a mile, I will play him to catch Silver Max.......probably straight exacta.

Also like 2 year old Designed for war in race 6

07 Aug 2014 8:30 PM
KY VET

Exciting stuff boretexx! Tell us about your other innovative system betting russell baze at no. cal!

07 Aug 2014 9:25 PM
Racingfan

Those are my selections also.

07 Aug 2014 11:15 PM
JayJay

Brontexx : Can you please explain what your post mean ?  I'm not sure what you're actually "reporting"... were there 7 starters from the 3 trainers in 3 different races ?  How did they come in ?  More importantly, what are you actually trying to sell here ?  What info would your customers get from your report ?  I don't recall you posting any picks from those 3 races.

Now I'm really curious how you're going to sell this "report" and really,  what you're selling.

08 Aug 2014 1:38 AM
Brontexx

JayJay Im not selling anything BPM stands for Brown,Pletcher,Mclaughlin  Brown had three starters yesterday 3-2-1-0 Pletcher had 3 starters yesterday 3-1-1-0 Mclaughlin had one starter 1-0-1-0  All of these starters ran in three races the 3rd the 4th and the 9th  the exactas in ALL THREE RACES were from the barns of BPM their trainees also finished 1st in both the 3rd and the 4th race yesterday so they were the horses in the DD.

08 Aug 2014 8:14 AM
Brontexx

KY Vet Exciting stuff boretexx! Tell us about your other innovative system betting russell baze at no. cal!

I dont play jockeys they ride too many races.If you think playing this game using PPs is innovative then keep doing it.Im not the only one doing this Tom Amoss is well followed by horseplayers around the country as I found out in 2010 when I started with 6 trainers but I dropped Albertranni because he sucks so I ended up with 5.

08 Aug 2014 8:19 AM
Brontexx

TnT Lost my every BPM yesterday, they turn up today, when I didn't bet.

This is not a mechanical strategy you dont bet every runner from the barns and it is a LONG term strategy.Pletcher is only in this for Saratoga as his percentages go down at the other NYRA tracks.

08 Aug 2014 8:21 AM
Brontexx

JayJay I am reporting this daily but if your interested you should do your own homework and find high percentage trainers that you will learn and once you do their runners will finish 1st and 2nd about 60-70% of the time higher than the percentage on Equibase because you dont bet ALL their runners.You use your judgement and PPs to cherry pick the best runners.

I have followed in the past Amoss,Motion,Ward,Wolfson I might have forgot a couple.

08 Aug 2014 8:28 AM
Brontexx

Trainers I follow now Brown,Jones,Mclauglin.Pletcher is only in for Saratoga.I am not the only one doing this and it IS A VIABLE STRATEGY.GL to all.

08 Aug 2014 8:31 AM
Brontexx

BTW top trainers do very well in ungraded stakes but almost all of them with maybe a few exceptions percentages go down in graded stakes,those are the hardest races to win especially nowadays where you have heard the phrase they are run to breed.

08 Aug 2014 9:22 AM
Brontexx

Higher percentages in graded stakes for any trainer is not long lasting maybe a trainer had a good year but it is only logical that the hardest races to win will be that way for everyone in the long term.

08 Aug 2014 9:24 AM
Coldfacts

Sayaad: I like this 4YO to win the Fourstardave. I am not a fan of his trainer for reasons I have expressed in the past. However, even a broken clock can gets the time right.

This colt has improved significantly since the being placed on Lasix. His 6 starts with the juice have resulted in race record of (4-1-0). The sole off the board finish was on a soft turf and after a bad stumble and a bump at the start.

The most impressive of his 4 victories on Lasix came in a 7F Optional Claim in October 2013. He was never worse than 2nd in fractions of 22, 44 & 1:08 with a final time of 1:20 3/5. He held on determinedly for a NK victory. One could ask why wasn’t his victory over a mile completed in 1:33 3/5 cited as his most impressive? Well, the fractions were modest i.e., 23, 46, 1:10. The fractions will contest in the Fourstardave will be similar to those he contested in his October victory.

Sayaad was off for 8 months before scoring his last victory. A 3YO that is capable of recording 1:20 for 7F and is sidelined for 8 months will return a bigger and stronger 4YO ready to destroy those in its path.

Sayaad has contested two Saratoga and with a 1st & 2nd place finish. His loss was only by a NK. Silver Max is the only other horse that has raced on the Saratoga turf and he is an over raced 5YO.  

If my assessment that Sayaad has returned better than he left he should win the race in a determined fashion.

08 Aug 2014 11:19 AM
Secreteriat

Bobby's Kitten/Murmer Double 7/6 for $50

Hope for a doubling.

Good Luck

08 Aug 2014 1:12 PM
Brontexx

BPM today no entrants from Mclaughlin only two from Brown and Pletcher and they both came in 2nd.So 100% 1st and 2nd both exactas paid well especially the first if you put the longest shot on the board over Bobbys Kitten but if you only played the DD it was only paying $4 for every $1 bet(I checked) for two even money favorites.I didnt bet when I saw the odds and the races.I admit I could have hit the 2nd exacta but not the first.The 2nd exacta was the 3rd betting choice over the favorite and it paid 17-1 for a 5-1 shot over an even money shot very inefficient exacta betting pool odds.The DD on the other hand was 4-1 as I previously stated.I only like to play DDs that pay 15-1 and up because you are betting horizontal exotics which means you have to PREDICT THE OUTCOME FOR MORE THAN ONE RACE instead of vertical exotics where your prediction is only on the OUTCOME OF ONE RACE.GL to all

08 Aug 2014 6:24 PM
Little Bill

Never has a man said so little with so much.

08 Aug 2014 7:15 PM
KY VET

stupider......and stupider........keep posting!

08 Aug 2014 8:26 PM
JayJay

Brontexx : OK, I thought you said you were beta testing something that you were planning on maybe selling as a report in the future... maybe I misread it.   Anyway, I need to hit now and not learn something in the long term.  

It seems you're really just posting the results of how their horses do but not really picking them before they run.  Is this the gist of your BPM report, like just letting us know the percentages  ?   Looks to me the trick is identifying which race their horses will actually hit the board but how do you figure that out ?   Do you have the formula for that ?

08 Aug 2014 10:19 PM
JayJay

I would've had the Tri and Super had BK held on, a nice return on the exacta though.  BK looked ranked, Javier seems to be having a hard time trying to keep him from going 200mph...

08 Aug 2014 10:48 PM
Brontexx

Little Bill KY Vet the heckle and jeckle of this blog

Never has a man said so little with so much.

stupider......and stupider........keep posting!

Buy your PPs early boys you need that extra study time

09 Aug 2014 3:55 AM
Brontexx

JayJay  It seems you're really just posting the results of how their horses do but not really picking them before they run.  Is this the gist of your BPM report, like just letting us know the percentages  ?   Looks to me the trick is identifying which race their horses will actually hit the board but how do you figure that out ?   Do you have the formula for that ?

Theres no formula you look at all the races that the trainers have entrants and pick the best bets.When the race is on the clock is when you will either make the right decisions(bets)or you dont.

09 Aug 2014 3:58 AM
Brontexx

Keelerman if heckle and jeckle Little Bill and Ky Vet make their picks I will make mine.

GL boys buy your PPs early to get the extra study time we all know you are skow learners

09 Aug 2014 4:01 AM
Pedigree Ann

And now for something completely different...,

The Australian racing season is starting to gear up. Today, there were two 1200m sprints at Flemington (G3) and Randwick (G2) to begin getting ready for the big spring fixtures. The G2(a wfa) went to the mare Sweet Idea, but the take-away of the race was that Boban is back. Out of the gate poorly, he was near the back most of the race and closed strongly to be fourth, about a length back of the winner. Since he is more of a miler anyway, this was a good prep for further along in the season. Down the straight at Flemington, Tiger Tees showed he retains the form that won him his first G1 last fall. He is an out-and-out sprinter so he will be pointing for the Coolmore Stud (G1) on Melbourne Cup day, in all likelihood.

09 Aug 2014 5:08 AM
Pedigree Ann

Tell you what Brontexx, I won't disparage your methods of betting races if you don't disparage mine. You want only to make money by betting. Fine. But please note some of us prefer to solve the puzzle that each race offers us using all the information available. There is no 'best' way to do this; there is only that which is best for each of us individually.

09 Aug 2014 5:21 AM
English Pete

Unfortunately the only UK prices I can find on the Fourstardave have Silver Max at 6/4. Shame, as if the ML odds of 9/5 were available he would be a good value bet. He's won 8 from 9 on turf at Grade 2 level or below, and there's often value in siding with proven performance over potential (eg Sayaad, Seek Again). I'd be worried about Seek Again on his form with Wise Dan, and I think the cutback to a mile will suit him, but I'd expect Silver Max to be able to concede him a pound over the mile. The major concern is if Sayaad takes Max on up front, so I'd want better than 6/4 odds to allow for that eventuality.

If anybody's interested, the other prices this morning are as follows: 5/2 Seek Again, 4/1 Jack M, 6/1 Sayaad, 12/1 Grand Arch, 33/1 Dorsett.

In summary, I'll be tuning into the race through live streaming and at 7/4 or better will back Silver Max. If he's shorter, I'll just enjoy watching. Should be an interesting race.

09 Aug 2014 6:33 AM
Brontexx

Pedigree Ann Have I forgotten something I posted I dont think I have written anything about your methods.I only post my method so bloggers will open up their mind that a person can do things differently.

Tell you what Brontexx, I won't disparage your methods of betting races if you don't disparage mine. You want only to make money by betting. Fine. But please note some of us prefer to solve the puzzle that each race offers us using all the information available. There is no 'best' way to do this; there is only that which is best for each of us individually.

09 Aug 2014 8:58 AM
Secreteriat

Easy as 1 2 3

Straight TRI 1 Silver Max 2 Seek Again 3 Jack Milton

Exacta Seek Again over  and under Silver Max

09 Aug 2014 9:01 AM
Secreteriat

R 8 P4 1-6 W 1-10 W 1-2-3 W 3-6-7

GL

09 Aug 2014 9:35 AM
-Keelerman

Hello, everyone! Sorry I'm late joining the conversation. I ended up missing the National Museum Racing Hall of Fame Stakes yesterday, but upon watching the replay (without knowing the results), I couldn't believe how the race unfolded. First off, I was surprised to see Jose Lezcano try to rate So Lonesome off the lead. As the chart notes, So Lonesome "was wrestled back off the early pace," although I personally thought "strangled" off the early pace would have been more accurate. :)

So that allowed Bobby's Kitten to secure an easy early lead, and after an opening quarter in :24 seconds, I figured the race was over. But then, it turned out that Bobby's Kitten didn't need So Lonesome to push him into a faster pace -- all he needed was his own headstrong nature. The second quarter was timed in a sharp :22.77, and the third quarter in :23.57, which were surprisingly quick fractions given that no one was challenging Bobby's Kitten for the lead.

Even still, it looked like Bobby's Kitten had the race won when he opened up a substantial lead turning for home. But then the rest of the field came to him in the final furlong, and while only one horse was able to pass him in the end, that one horse was 23.60-1 shot Wallyanna -- the longest shot on the board. JayJay, congratulations on hitting the exacta!

I'm not sure I'll be able to tune in for the Fourstardave Handicap this afternoon, so in case I can't, good luck to everyone in advance!

09 Aug 2014 9:48 AM
-Keelerman

Pedigree Ann;

Thanks for the update on the major Australian races!

09 Aug 2014 9:53 AM
-Keelerman

English Pete;

I agree that 6-4 is a bit low on Silver Max. Jack Milton at 4-1 is certainly fair (he'll probably be around 5-2 in the U.S. win pool), but I probably wouldn't take him at less than 5-1. Good luck, and have fun watching the race! It should be a good one!

09 Aug 2014 9:59 AM
Brontexx

Ill play the 2-5 exacta box in the 4*dave Thats Seek Again and Saayad.Ill also ad Another S for the tri Silver Max thats 2-5-1  5-2-1. The S's take the Dave.I wouldnt box them Silver Max could be the favorite and I prefer not to key the favorite on top.

Take the S's punters.Its as easy as S3.GL to all

09 Aug 2014 11:57 AM
Pedigree Ann

Those of you who will be at Saratoga on Monday should give Emma-Jayne Wilson a rousing "well-done." In the Shergar Cup International Jockeys Challenge this afternoon, she came within two inches (the amount by which her mount lost the second last race after the whip was knocked out of her hand by another jock's whip) of winning the "Silver Saddle" emblematic of the individual championship. With her two wins in 6 races, neither on favorites, along with that close second she propelled her team, "The Girls" (a rather condescending name, since team members were all over 30) to second by only a point behind the Euro team. The Rest of the World was third and the locals, GB/IRE, trailed in last. If Stefi Hofer's horse hadn't hopped at the start in the last race and given the field 6-7 lengths, "The Girls" would have won, as it closed like a train to get fourth.

09 Aug 2014 12:56 PM
Pedigree Ann

Brontexx - well, maybe you only meant KyVet and some others when you made snarky remarks about people who use PPs to analyze races, but a lot of the rest of us use them, too, you know.

09 Aug 2014 1:22 PM
Little Bill

Sar 3) 4 March Reward. March, August, who cares?

09 Aug 2014 2:01 PM
Brontexx

Pedigree Ann you are correct in this matter when you state: Brontexx - well, maybe you only meant KyVet and some others when you made snarky remarks about people who use PPs to analyze races, but a lot of the rest of us use them, too, you know.

When I write this I expect you to think its silly of me but a tit for a tat so to speak Little Bill and KY Vet are constantly heckling me in regards to my methodology SO I CALL THOSE TWO THE HECKLE AND JECKLE OF THIS BLOG.

09 Aug 2014 2:23 PM
Brontexx

Little Bill too bad my Pletcher entrant bested your boy in the 3rd and he paid 5.30 thats two wins in a row for Pletch I only played that one.Better luck next time Jeckle.

09 Aug 2014 2:25 PM
JerseyBoy

When anyone keeps criticizing a trainer, I look at that trainer’s current record.

This is the year-to-date record of the trainers represented in today’s Fourstardave

Win percentage:

Romans-16%

Mott-14%

Pletcher-24%

K McLaughlin-20%

Lynch-18%

Does anyone see a problem with McLaughlin’s record, compared to that of the other trainers in the Fourstardave? I don’t.

He even compares favorably with Pletcher overall.

09 Aug 2014 2:33 PM
Little Bill

Shut up Meg.

09 Aug 2014 2:41 PM
Brontexx

JB here are the numbers for graded stakes

Win percentage:

Romans-15%

Mott-19%

Pletcher-21%

K McLaughlin-13%

Lynch-14%

Look at Motts record at the SPA a revert back to the mean could help or you could imterpret this data as the opposite he is cold in graded events t the SPA.Fielders choice so to SEEK oh I meany to speak.

21 William I. Mott 5 0 0 1 $61,000 0% 1 20%

09 Aug 2014 2:53 PM
TnT

Going big on seek again, will box with JM

Hoping sayaad does the dirty work.

09 Aug 2014 3:41 PM
JerseyBoy

Brontexx:

I judge horses by their performance, not by their trainer’s records.

I used the numbers simply to make a point.  

By the way, if you are addressing me, please do not use non-standard abbreviations in your entry.

I never do. I use only standard abbreviations, such as -2yo, 3yo, lbs., etc

Note also that I do not spare the use of punctuation marks. They make reading easier.

By the way, I thought you were referring to the Scotch whisky when you used the initials JB

09 Aug 2014 3:42 PM
TnT

Taking Mott in race 6 as well.  DUBAI SKY.

09 Aug 2014 4:04 PM
Brontexx

JerseyBoy I used the numbers simply to make a point.  

My point was that trainer's percentages go down when in graded stakes.Mott's has improved in graded stakes at least thus far.

By the way, if you are addressing me, please do not use non-standard abbreviations in your entry.

I used JB you can abrreviate my name on here as BT I wont get offended.

I never do. I use only standard abbreviations, such as -2yo, 3yo, lbs., etc

Note also that I do not spare the use of punctuation marks. They make reading easier.

This is not a writing class but a blog so I write on here informally and I do not need anyone reading me any rules they personally follow because I dont follow them.

09 Aug 2014 4:27 PM
Brontexx

JerseyBoy

I judge horses by their performance, not by their trainer’s records.

Thats funny cause I do too I start by looking at that trainers entrant but I dont blindly bet whatever trainer based on his percentages.What my methodology does is get me to focus on ONE ENTRANT and if he is worth betting.

09 Aug 2014 4:32 PM
Brontexx

If you bloggers want me gone unite and vote me off isnt this the US where we all have the power to vote and have free speech.

Believe me I wont worry about it but until then I will recount BPM until the end of the Saratoga meet or until I decide to stop.So far today 7 entrants have run with 3 1sts and 2 2nds.GL to all.

09 Aug 2014 4:52 PM
Little Bill

Monmouth Oaks is the race of the day for me. Lost it's luster with two major players scratching. Ria Antonia has no excuse if she loses. She is suppose to be the class and if she's a true closer the pace should suit. I'm going to take a chance with the 10 Spring Included. She should break first or second and I don't think distance is a problem. Jones horse looks tough.

09 Aug 2014 5:07 PM
Brontexx

Little Bill I was going to play Jones entry( CASSATT ) but you see what success does she will go off at less than even money,which dosent mean she wont win or come in 2nd but I dont know who will be the other horse that beats her or completes the exacta.Jones has a lot of better plays but again this filly is not 4/5 because she looks good in the walking ring or is from the Jones barn.GL

09 Aug 2014 5:41 PM
Brontexx

The exacta box of RIA ANTONIA and  CASSATT is 5-1 if this was an easier race I might take those odds but they could go head to head early and then what usually happens is one goes on while the other dosent at least in this type of race.

09 Aug 2014 5:48 PM
Brontexx

If I was playing the Monmouth Oaks I would dutch them and bet each accordingly to their win odds.GL

09 Aug 2014 5:50 PM
TnT

Boom......what a ride by Rosario. Not often you through on the rail being squeezed like that. BC turf mile. Bye bye wise dan.

09 Aug 2014 6:26 PM
Brontexx

No big surprise Seek Again won.

09 Aug 2014 6:36 PM
Brontexx

Big deal Seek Again and CASSATT  win nobody had the exacta on this blog.

09 Aug 2014 6:40 PM
Brontexx

.So far today 7 entrants have run with 3 1sts and 2 2nds.GL to all.

9 entrants 3 1sts 2 nds 1 3rd.56% 1st and 2nd.Good night.

09 Aug 2014 6:51 PM
TnT

Big deal for me. Great day.

09 Aug 2014 6:59 PM
JayJay

TnT : Nice pick on Seek Again, I hope you really loaded up on him.  I would've had the P4 had Grand Arch won but Seek Again was a little too good today.   I should've had him instead of Jack Milton as he's a Mott horse on grass but I used JM and GA for my P4.  I thought JM was the better of the two.  I did hit the .50 tri and super only because I saw Albarado was riding Silver Max and I never ever play Albarado, I dropped him and used Seek again.  I can't stand that guy...he's a wife beater.

09 Aug 2014 10:27 PM
JayJay

Pedigree Ann :  Who do you like in the Keeneland Phoenix ?  I read the article and looks like this is the top baby race ?  Just for kicks, my picks if I was playing the race (don't think xpressbet will cover that race) would be Dick Whittington and Anthem Alexander on top with Kool Kompany, Kasbah and The Great War.  I'd love to watch the race but don't know where I can watch it.

09 Aug 2014 10:35 PM
Pedigree Ann

Jayjay, it's the top of the Irish one's in the summer, to be sure. Pretty salty field, and since they start the 2yos from April (the way we used to in the States), most have some real form to go on.

Kool Kompany has won 5 of 6 lifetime, having flubbed only at Royal Ascot when he was steadied at the start. He has traveled before and won, a G1 in France. He has won on all sorts of ground. And he doesn't have to concede weight to anybody but the fillies. Obvious favorite.

The fillies do have some strong representatives in this race, including the Queen Mary S(G2) winner Anthem Alexander. But beware! she was well beaten in her debut at the Curragh on worse than good-firm ground at this distance. It is raining pretty good here in Belfast - don't know if it is in The South. The other filly of note, Beach Belle, is unbeaten and beat colts on debut at The Curragh on soft/heavy ground before defeating girls in a listed race up the road in Naas. Unexposed sort, may be more to come.

But one thing to remember is that if any trainer "owns" a racecourse, Aidan O'Brien "owns" the Curragh. You cannot discount his entrants, even if they seem to be outclassed by others, as it appears here. On raw form, Dick Whittington seems best of the O'Brien runners but guess what? Son Joseph, who has ridden all four (and all races for Dick Whittington and War Envoy), is on The Great War today. A nice puzzle there.

10 Aug 2014 4:51 AM
Pedigree Ann

P.S. Jayjay, I have an account with Twinspires (started with Brisbet, which was then purchased by the conglomerate) and since they don't require a bet before watching a particular race, I can watch those Irish races via streaming. Also South African and Australian.

10 Aug 2014 4:59 AM
Brontexx

Being able to focus my exotic betting on one horse in the races I bet helped me win multiple exactas weekly in 2010.I look to multiply the amount I make on low priced horses by betting in the exacta pools.I cover my exactas with WPS bets and even if I dont hit the exacta in that race I can make more than I bet in the WPS pools and I get some of my money back in the majority of races I bet.IMO this notion of win it all or lose it all is for losers or for those that dont mind losing their recreational budget to the business of horseracing.I am very competetive and I wouldnt play this game if I didnt think I had a chance to win more than I bet every day.

When you use PPs to arrive at a winner you spend so much time deciding who to bet when you should be spending more time on deciding how to bet.GL to all

10 Aug 2014 6:34 AM
Brontexx

Before I played Thoroughbreds I played the Greyhounds and Jai Alai successfully so I gained the winning more than you wager by knowing how to bet perspective.

10 Aug 2014 6:38 AM
Brontexx

I am pretty sure no one on this blog has hit the amount in a superfecta wager that I have without disclosing the exact amount.

10 Aug 2014 6:40 AM
Brontexx

I spend less time on the ponies nowadays because I have other vocations that I am involved in.I played one of my ADW accounts more than a year just playing WPS bets and I came out close to even to -2.5 percent the range is due to the fact that I did not actually start on a certain date but just did this for a year to see how I would do.The return is nothing like when I played FULL TIME and used exactas to multiply my winnings while at the same time maintained a disapline in my betting where I wouldnt suffer a substancial drawdown in my betting banroll any day of a full year.

10 Aug 2014 6:46 AM
Brontexx

Well bloggers have  good day will post sometime later today and of course recount BPM for the day.

10 Aug 2014 6:47 AM
Rusty Weisner

So the punchline after this torrent of logorrhea is that he comes out on the losing end.  Priceless.

10 Aug 2014 9:53 AM
Coldfacts

I am critical of many trainers and praise many. I would not retain the serveries of neither Mr. McLaughlin nor Mr. Pletcher despite their percentages.  

With the blood stock Mr. McLaughlin gets each year his percentage is average. He is just incapable of properly developing the horses under his keep and care. Most is not all of them breakdown or develop issues that require long periods away from the track. How often does he get a horse to any of the TC races?

It would be interesting to see the views regarding the regularity with which Tood Pletcher trained horses suddenly and without explanation go MIA. As usual in his post-race comments regarding Palace Malice’s performance was that he had no immediate no explanation. To date there has never been an explanation for Life At Ten.

I keep a log of the Todd Pletcher trained horses that suddenly and without explanation go MIA. The list is extensive.

Mr. Pletcher has an exception record and has been a multiple Eclipse award winner trainer. Does this mean he gets a pass for the many occasions his overwhelming favorites flop in races when they are in peak form? Like At Ten, Princess OF Sylmar, Quality Road, Revolutionary are just a few in recent memory. The list is so extensive that the betting public would not be aware if they have not been keeping record.

The regularity of these occurrences certainly indicts Mr. Pletcher’s high octane program that appears to cause his charges to lose form when least expected.

No other trainer retires more horses each year due to abbreviated racing careers than Todd P. Of the 42 horses he nominated to the TC not one was available to contests either the Haskell or Jim Dandy. Each year his top 3YOs either suddenly go MIA or sustained injuries. This cannot be due to bad luck but rather a reflection on his program.

10 Aug 2014 12:28 PM
JayJay

Pedigree Ann :  Yeah, don't have a twinspires account, sucks that xpressbet doesn't cover it as they cover a lot of UK races and some South African ones.  I picked Dick Whittington because of Aidan, saw he's got a bunch of horses there and I like Rip Van Winkle hehe.  I don't know much about anything on these EU horses but I did see that his son is riding the Great War horse that's why I added him to the bet.   Let me know how it went :)

Brontexx : Chill out dude, you don't have to explain everything, or anything really.

10 Aug 2014 12:47 PM
KY VET

Let me be the first to say the truth......i havent seen ONE PERSON say this......KEVIN WARD WAS KILLED by car driven by tony stewart...........IT WAS 100% kevin wards fault!......The racing leaders have let this happen for years....letting drivers get out, and rant, point, at drivers who they think caused the crash......getting out of your car, to point at a driver is really really stupid!.....look for new rules against this...........it was bound to happen!

10 Aug 2014 2:47 PM
JayJay

Pedigree Ann : Looks like Joseph ended up on my pick anyway with the scratch of The Great War.  Would've love to have put some money on Dick Whittington at 6-1.   I hope you were able to since you also liked him.   Bloodhorse doesn't have the replay of the race but hopefully it'll be on youtube soon.

10 Aug 2014 4:19 PM
Brontexx

BPM today Mclaughlin was the one that had the best day doing what he does winning graded stakes.He only has two wins this meet but both were female horses that won a GR3 Antipathy who I posted on the blog and that broke his losing streak and today Cavorting in a GR 2

the ADIRONDACK Stakes.I think Mclaughlin will sneak into the top ten in money won before the meet is complete.In fact I just checked Equibase he moved up to 10th today.

Brown had a good day with 3 starters and two of his three ran in the first race today and finished 1st and 2nd.His third starter was outta money.

Pletcher had a bad day by his standards his record today 7-0-1-1.Dont forget Pletcher had 3 wins yesterday thats why I follow more than one trainer.

Total today 11-2-2-2 only 4 out of 11 (36%) 1st and 2nd which are exacta possibilities.

JayJay check out Irad Ortiz record with 2yos at the SPA He won two races for me today on Brown and Mclaughlin trainees.Here Ill save you the trouble but hes number one now with 2yos so Im glad I checked it today before I bet on the 1st race.

1 Irad Ortiz, Jr. 26 8 3 6 $820,020 31% 17 65%

10 Aug 2014 7:14 PM
Brontexx

KY VET

Let me be the first to say the truth......i havent seen ONE PERSON say this......KEVIN WARD WAS KILLED by car driven by tony stewart...........IT WAS 100% kevin wards fault!......The racing leaders have let this happen for years....letting drivers get out, and rant, point, at drivers who they think caused the crash......getting out of your car, to point at a driver is really really stupid!.....look for new rules against this...........it was bound to happen!

I dont think I would choose to be a NASCAR PRO or maybe I would I just wouldnt get outta the car on the track to complain a better location would be the local pub accompanied by your posse and your groupees then It would be on ESPN.

10 Aug 2014 7:55 PM
JayJay

Found the Phoenix race on YouTube and that was a nice race.  For being such a young rider, Joseph is a smart jockey.   He rode DW perfectly, boxing KK behind the two leaders forcing Hughes to “bump” his way out.  I’m not sure why they called inquiry on that since it’s clear KK was bumping DW to get some room.  I wonder if they'll consider running DW in the turf sprint here (I'm sure someone will comment about the slow time), I think he'll be competitive here.

10 Aug 2014 10:55 PM
Brontexx

Rusty Weisner Like I wrote before I am pretty sure no one on this blog has hit the amount in a superfecta wager that I have without disclosing the exact amount.

So the punchline after this torrent of logorrhea is that he comes out on the losing end.  Priceless.

I am ahead lifetime and if you keep playing the horizontal exotic sucker bets you never will be.It takes a defined methodology and disipline to play those pic 3 4s and 5s which by reading your entries on here you dont have.

11 Aug 2014 1:50 AM
Brontexx

Coldfacts I cant wait until you buy some blood stock so you can tell us all which trainer you have retained and outline the reasons you have retained him and then the skinny of the matter how that trainee actually does on the track.

11 Aug 2014 1:54 AM
Brontexx

Boys Ill be waiying for your rebuttalls

hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

11 Aug 2014 1:56 AM
JerseyBoy

Brontexx :

Hilarious.

I know the trainer. He is the one who developed the first-crop sire whose offspring lead the pack of all sires in Juvenile earnings.

11 Aug 2014 8:13 AM
JerseyBoy

Brontexx:

You did not get the skinny. So I will give you the scoop.

The trainer had an employee who visited an island in the Caribbean, where a few athletes have been disgraced in a “high octane” scandal.

While on the island, the employee was shown how to administer “high octane” to racehorses. This is a secret technique which I became aware of when talking to a friend who grew up on that island.( She can’t run but she is fine otherwise).

The technique results in the horse retaining the benefit of the high octane in its genetic material but without any possibility of detection. Remarkably, the horse is forever able to pass this undetectable material to its offspring. That is why they are so good.

It is the subject of his doctoral thesis at CRU.

(CRU is the abbreviation for Can’t Remember U).

11 Aug 2014 9:22 AM
Brontexx

JerseyBoy very good, Im sure Chief Piccawinna is smiling down on you from his teepee in the sky.

11 Aug 2014 5:21 PM
Brontexx

BPM today not much to recount 4-0-0-2 I didnt play a cent today after viewing the entrants, 3 were in one race.To use this methodology you really dont want 3 in one race,that defeats the idea of focusing on betting exotics with only one number and hedging in the WPS pools with one number.I didnt like the runners today, their odds the races they were running in etc, and I was right not to play.Believe me after following a trainer you develop a sixth sense about knowing when to bet and not to bet.

11 Aug 2014 5:30 PM
Coldfacts

Caribbean island whose athletes were disgraced. That appears to be  Jamaica. The cold facts about the athletes involved:

Veronica Campbell – Charges dismissed

Asafa Powell: He consumed a banned substance in a supplement. His 18 months suspension was significantly reduced as the offense was deemed to be minor.

Sherone Simpson: She consumed a banned substance in a supplement. Her 18 months suspension was significantly reduced as the offense was deemed to be minor

The above cold facts can be verified and hardly represent a disgrace when compared to US athletes.

During the month of July 2014 at a Diamond League Meet in Lausanne, Switzerland, Justin Gatlin, Tyson Gay and Mike Rodgers finished 1-2-3 in the Men’s 100M.

It was the first time in history that three athletes from the same country who had served drug bans occupied the top 3 positions in a 100M race. Gatlin and Gay were suspended for using steroids. Rodgers' substance was undisclosed but he claimed he consumed Red Bull.

If the above didn’t rise to the level of a disgrace in Track & Field, no other incident does.

No Caribbean island has ever produced either a Flo Jo, Marian Jones or Lance Armstrong three of the biggest frauds to have ever participated in any sporting event.

It is suggested that the contributor making such claims properly identify the geographic location associated with disgraced athletes.

12 Aug 2014 12:15 AM
Coldfacts

Caribbean island whose athletes were disgraced. That appears to be  Jamaica. The cold facts about the athletes involved:

Veronica Campbell – Charges dismissed

Asafa Powell: He consumed a banned substance in a supplement. His 18 months suspension was significantly reduced as the offense was deemed to be minor.

Sherone Simpson: She consumed a banned substance in a supplement. Her 18 months suspension was significantly reduced as the offense was deemed to be minor

The above cold facts can be verified and hardly represent a disgrace when compared to US athletes.

During the month of July 2014 at a Diamond League Meet in Lausanne, Switzerland, Justin Gatlin, Tyson Gay and Mike Rodgers finished 1-2-3 in the Men’s 100M.

It was the first time in history that three athletes from the same country who had served drug bans occupied the top 3 positions in a 100M race. Gatlin and Gay were suspended for using steroids. Rodgers' substance was undisclosed but he claimed he consumed Red Bull.

If the above didn’t rise to the level of a disgrace in Track & Field, no other incident does.

No Caribbean island has ever produced either a Flo Jo, Marian Jones or Lance Armstrong three of the biggest frauds to have ever participated in any sporting event.

It is suggested that the contributor making such claims properly identify the geographic location associated with disgraced athletes.

12 Aug 2014 12:15 AM
Coldfacts

Brontexx

You need to be very careful what you classify as being 'Very Good'

The colt facts when disclosed can make what appears to be very good in fact very bad.

Do not be influenced by an agent of hate and intolerance.

12 Aug 2014 12:19 AM
Brontexx

Coldfacts it seems that recent commentary on this blog has gotten personal or has been perceived as such.I was contributing on this blog on another level.

Do not be influenced by an agent of hate and intolerance.

A good philosophy to adhere too.

12 Aug 2014 12:53 AM
Coldfacts

Brontexx,

When inaccuracies are contained in submissions I am forced to place certain issues in proper perspectives.

I consider my effort educational as some contributors have limited knowledge of the subject they highlight and consequently provide a distorted view of certain issues.

Their agenda is to ridicule and discredits others. If one is attempting to ridicule another using coded facts, at a minimum said facts should be accurate. This will prevent embarrassing rebuttals.

12 Aug 2014 1:42 AM
Brontexx

Coldfacts when you make this proclamation: When inaccuracies are contained in submissions I am forced to place certain issues in proper perspectives.

It implies you are in charge here instead of Keelerman.

When you state:I consider my effort educational as some contributors have limited knowledge of the subject they highlight and consequently provide a distorted view of certain issues.

What does this mean it seems to mean that you are talking down to most bloggers on here and that the blog consists of a pack of liars.

Their agenda is to ridicule and discredits others. If one is attempting to ridicule another using coded facts, at a minimum said facts should be accurate. This will prevent embarrassing rebuttals.

This on the other hand: is an admission that you think you are a target for ridicule on this blog.

12 Aug 2014 10:16 AM
Coldfacts

Brontexx,

Why have you chosen to view my comments in the extreme. I am referring to inaccuracies in submissions in response to issues raised in my submissions.

I am not a self appointed Blog Tzar.

12 Aug 2014 11:29 AM
Coldfacts

Brontexx'

"What does this mean it seems to mean that you are talking down to most bloggers on here and that the blog consists of a pack of liars"

It appear you have the same confusion syndrome affecting JayJay.

Firstly this in not a forum where views are verbalized so it is impossible for me to talk down to any contributors.

Secondly I did not accuse anyone of lying. I specified  distortion of facts.

I am neither specified nor inferred that I have superior knowledge on this blog. I am therefore alarmed at your conclusion.

I have chosen not to post the contributor's ID to whom certain submissions are directed but he knows. He does  likewise does not make submissions to me. Two can play the game.

This has nothing to do with any other contributor.

12 Aug 2014 11:41 AM
Brontexx

Coldfacts SAY WHAT? Why have you chosen to view my comments in the extreme. I am referring to inaccuracies in submissions in response to issues raised in my submissions.

inaccuacies in submissions what submissions?

12 Aug 2014 11:44 AM
-Keelerman

Just in case anyone missed these, I thought I'd share a few Travers Stakes-related updates that didn't receive much attention last week.

First off, Haskell Invitational winner Bayern has been confirmed as a starter for the Travers, while Haskell third-place finisher Wildcat Red will pass on the Travers and instead target the King's Bishop Stakes.

Also, Social Inclusion did not emerge from the Haskell in satisfactory condition, and has been sent to Rood and Riddle for an examination. This most likely eliminates any chance of his starting in the Travers.

12 Aug 2014 11:46 AM
TnT

Keelerman,

Are you handicapping the Arlington races this weekend, they look pretty wide open, bar Magician.

I will prob back the O Brien starters, and the best closer in the Beverly D.

12 Aug 2014 8:11 PM
JayJay

Keelerman : With Bayern confirmed to go, do you expect Tonalist to be much closer to the pace ?   I think the Haskell showed he needs to be much closer to the pace to have any chance.  I'm curious if Wicked Strong will end up rating behind those two.  If he fails to be competitive in the Travers, I'll have to say that the distance of the Belmont helped him rather him winning it with talent.  In fact, if he doesn't win the Travers, I won't be surprised if he doesn't ever win again.

Coldfacts :  You call it confusion, I call it distortion of facts on your end.   The fact is, I'm the one that calls you out with your so-called facts and when push comes to shove, you post a million paragraphs to try and distract me.   Your responses to me reflects it.  You ignore the things which you have no answer for, it's okay, you refusing to address my questions says everything.  I'll continue to set you straight when you "facts."   Like I said, when you post your version of a fact, it's called opinion, not cold facts.  It may take years for that to sink in but I'll be here to remind you hehe.

13 Aug 2014 2:41 AM
Pedigree Ann

Re: Tonalist. I read an interview with his owner about how he came to buy him. I paraphrase because I can't locate the original. "All the buyers wanted to buy the grey Tapits because they look like Tapit. This one was more Pleasant Colony in looks than Tapit and the people wanting Tapits didn't bid on him." Pleasant Colony was a proper stayer, off the board in his only sprint tries, all stakes wins at 9f or more. Won the Derby, Preakness, Woodward, Wood Memorial, second a head in the Travers (no BC in those days). Sometimes a horse takes after Mum's side of the family, not Dad's.

13 Aug 2014 4:45 AM
TnT

Totally agree Pedigree Ann, I believe Tonalist and WTC, are the best 10f horses in the US.

I have been against them at 9f

13 Aug 2014 6:46 AM
Brontexx

CFs reveal the facts, come clean, lets hear your admission of those submissions in question.

13 Aug 2014 7:38 AM
Coldfacts

TnT,

"Totally agree Pedigree Ann, I believe Tonalist and WTC, are the best 10f horses in the US."

Kindly take no offense but I am forces to pose the following question:

How did you and Pedigree Ann arrive at such a conclusion?

Will Take Charge Has contested four 10F races wit a record of (1-2-0)

Tonalist has never contested a 10F.

Game On Dude has contested fourteen 10F races with a record of (6-3-0) He has not been retired and consequently has to be the best 10F horse in the country.

13 Aug 2014 9:52 AM
Coldfacts

Brontexx,

When submissions are written in a coded from and directed to a certain contributor, very few will recognize the intent of the submission. Below are examples.

Mitigating factors was a term used in one of my submissions. I am no lawyer but I considered the usage of the term appropriate. WTC was being penalized for a sub-par performance in the OK handicap without factoring in the adverse impact of the two brutal raced he contested in Florida & CA. Mitigating factors if any come into play during the penalty phase of sentencing.

A contributor who has seen it fit to advise all that both he and his wife are lawyers had to comment on the context in which the term was used. How dear the dish washer Coldfact use a legal term he is unqualified to use.

“(By the way, if I wanted to say” I had the winner” in the Whitney,I can always tout half the field so I can say-I told you so.  It is a nice tactic but integrity must be maintained"

I gave an overview on some of the fancied contenders in the Whitney i.e., Departing, Moreno, Itmyluckyday, WTC, Romans. Nowhere in of the overviews did I specify that a particular horse was my definitive choice to win.

Why would anyone think that subsequent to the race, I would see it fit to claim a winner from the group if I had not made a definitive selection beforehand? There are no prior examples of this.

Only person with sinister mind and one who has spared no effort to ridicule and discredit me in the past would conceive such thoughts.

“The trainer had an employee who visited an island in the Caribbean, where a few athletes have been disgraced in a “high octane” scandal.”

I have referred to Mr. Todd Pletcher as a trainer with a High Octane Program. It is also no secret that I am a native of island of Jamaica. For those that do not follow Track & Field, five Jamaican athletes returned Adverse Analytical Findings in their samples taken at the Jamaican trials for the 2013 World Championships.

The submission from which the above extract was taken was composed in a coded and humorous form but it was vehemently clear to whom it refereed.

The party in question use to make direct submissions but now choses to make coded submissions. He knows that I know when it is done.

He has an acutely low opinion of me but he is to be forgiven as he is adversely affected by elitism and a superiority complex.

13 Aug 2014 11:11 AM
JerseyBoy

Kingston Hill should win on Saturday at Newbury.

The fact that Kingston appears in the horse’s name is purely a coincidence, even though one of my closest friends is from Kingston, Jamaica. She gave me a disc of Bob Marley’s -If da cap fits, let dem wear it.

13 Aug 2014 2:57 PM
TnT

Coldfacts, only I arrived at that conclusion not Pedigree Ann.

I will only back Game on Dude in 10F races if there is no pace, his record maybe the best, but I only like him if a race sets up for him, not usually the case in the big ones.

I appreciate your comments, and you probably have the facts to blow my argument out of the water.

13 Aug 2014 3:23 PM
Brontexx

Jersey Boy you are alleged to have posted a coded submission with a malicious intent to ridicule a long time contributor to this blog, who happens to have been born in Jamaica.What do you say to the allegations sir?

13 Aug 2014 3:47 PM
JerseyBoy

Brontexx:

First, if Kingston Hill is off at more than 2-1, and he wins, I will get some J&B, High Octane, for myself and my Jamaican friend. She might even like it.

Next, your question.

“Jersey Boy you are alleged to have posted a coded submission with a malicious intent to ridicule a long time contributor to this blog, who happens to have been born in Jamaica. What do you say to the allegations sir?”

Brontexx, my answer to your question is exactly your answer to the following question:

If I say repeatedly, on an anonymous blog, that trainer X uses a prohibited substance on his horses to enhance their performance, and I provide no evidence of this, would you see that as malicious?

Your answer to my question is also my answer to the question you posed.

13 Aug 2014 4:37 PM
TnT

Just so happens Trinidad & Tobago is playing Jamaica in a knock out T20 cricket match as we speak, of course I'm backing Trinidad.

Big deal in the Caribbean

Not sure who my Caribbean counterparts are.........sorry if I have confused others.

13 Aug 2014 5:23 PM
Brontexx

JerseyBoy So to decipher your reply in the matter of coded submissions, Nolo contendere.I think Ill have to see if the toy store KY Vet shops at for his toy horses sells decoder rings online, because the Locksmith never left the codes behind to crack coded submissions.Shandler on the other hand left his cartoon behind to run amok on the blog until that is the government catches him.

13 Aug 2014 6:51 PM
-Keelerman

TnT;

Sorry for my late reply! I'm working on this week's blog post right now, which will cover the three grade I races at Arlington Park. They do look pretty wide-open! I'm thinking of taking a shot with Side Glance in the Arlington Million, although Magician does look like a solid favorite.

The pick four linking the four major Arlington stakes races looks pretty intriguing. The Arlington St. Leger looks like the toughest leg to survive, although the Beverly D. looks difficult as well. I have the feeling this could be a very nice-paying sequence for those that survive it!

13 Aug 2014 10:16 PM
JayJay

Not surprising Coldfacts didn't respond to my post.  It's always the case when he doesn't have the answer.

Keelerman : Looking forward to your P4 selections for this weekend.  I specially like the hard P4s, that's where the money is.

14 Aug 2014 1:23 AM
TnT

Looks like a good day for BPM, some nice starters.

14 Aug 2014 10:13 AM
Brontexx

TNT only 3 starters left for BPM one was scratched.I think all three will be the favorites in their races so just betting all three to win for the same amount wont work unless all three win.Brown is the key today as he has the 1st starter and two of the three.Pletcher scratched his other 1ster in the 6th so the one remaining will probably be the lowest price of all three starters today in BPM.Brown is not really that good with 1sters so his 1st time starter in the 5th could, and I say that with a capital C go off as the 2nd choice.When punters view the PPs they will see that Brown has won 10 races at this meet so he still might go off as the favorite.The good thing about MSW races especially at a 40 day meet is that the odds  give you up to date clues on starters that drop precipiously from their morning line odds.That means they have been working well leading up to the race.

14 Aug 2014 12:42 PM
Brontexx

Dont ask me to explain all the reasons why I didnt bet the first BPM but Ill sum it up by one word experience.Their is no free lunch in ANY betting strategy you gotta know how to play it and thats what you get from following a simple format such as BPM knowledge from a different perspective that forces you to create and become a much better player because Pletcher and Brown dont have many that go to post that arent favorites..BTW Brown made money in that race but their is no name and no pool for betting 4th for us players.

I will be looking for a DD in the 5th and 6th but not Brown Pletcher.I will use Brown only as a hedge to win in case Castellano finds out Lady Daphne has a good shot once the race starts and rides accordingly.Pletcher has the most obvious winner in the 6th but all the colts left are first time starters and the bettors as a group know Pletcher excels in this category plus the pps read a bullet work and other positive stats so he could go off at less than even money no value in that.

14 Aug 2014 2:04 PM
Brontexx

Looked at the odds for the double and Im not going to play the double its either bet Browns filly in a verticle bet WPS or not and then bet Pletchers colt.The Brown Pletcher double is 7-1 right NOW Browns filly is at 5/2 which pays 7 dollars to win not saying Im betting that but I look at ALL the pools WPS and exactas amounts and percentages and take almost all the time on the clock.

14 Aug 2014 2:33 PM
Brontexx

Didnt play Lady Daphne did you notice the late betting on Bar of Gold she became the 2nd choice and I cancelled my place and show bets.This is MSW.

14 Aug 2014 2:50 PM
Brontexx

Pletchers colt will leave the gate at 3/5 4/5 if there is any late money on another but I doubt it.His colt should finish 1st or 2nd but Im not in and there is one exacta with the four on top paying 3-1 amd there is 4 others so keying him on top with all is not a play.

I can report BPM now its either 3-0-1-0 or 3-1-0-0 but Im not playing there are much better Pletcher plays believe me.What is his colt has a bad day and dosent come in Johnny V and Pletcher dont have a lot of urgency in getting a good race outta Blofeld its not the start of the meet and Pletcher is 10 wins ahead of Brown.GL if you bet.

14 Aug 2014 3:01 PM
Brontexx

Like I previously stated no urgency by Johnny V no whip used in the stretch, although I knew Blofeld was going to get there when they rounded the turn the only question was it going to be a photo finish or not.As I stated didnt play the DD Bar of Gold was bet down in the DD also and there were 3 selections at less than 10-1 in the double. BPM today 3-1-0-0 not 3-0-1-0 although it just as easily could have been.GL to all

14 Aug 2014 3:25 PM
Secreteriat

We have a good 2 yr old running Saturday in the ^th race

Bold Crusader (6) by Curlin by One for Jim.

Steve A is very high on this horse.He is a hombred Coldfacts would approve of his breeding! One for Jim is an offspring of Jersey Girl and Distorted Humor.

Hopefully he will break his maiden and head to the Champaign at Belmont. Don't expect big odds but 5/2 or better would be great! G L

14 Aug 2014 4:47 PM
Little Bill

Btex, can you sum that all up? I'm getting a little lost in the verbiage.

14 Aug 2014 5:03 PM
Brontexx

Little Bill BPM 3-1-0-0 Blofeld gets up near the wire.

Warning not a coded submission.

14 Aug 2014 6:31 PM
JerseyBoy

TnT:

Self-identification can lead to extreme hilarity.

Those Amazon Warriors did crush those Tallawahs. Time for Chris Gale to bat at number 4.

15 Aug 2014 2:09 PM

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