Will Magician Win the Arlington Million?

By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman")

On Saturday, Arlington Park will play host to seven stakes races worth a combined total of $2,865,000. The day’s racing will be highlighted by a quartet of major stakes races, led by the historic $1,000,000 Arlington Million (gr. I). Simply from a sporting perspective, the races are going to be fantastic, but for handicappers, the races will take on additional intrigue thanks to a $200,000 guaranteed pick four linking the biggest races. With so many wide-open in the lineup, it’s bound to pay nicely—if you can hit it. So let’s take a look at each race, and try to formulate a strategy!

American St. Leger Stakes

Any analysis of this race must begin with Dandino, the 3-1 morning line favorite and the reigning champion of this race. While his proven affinity for Arlington and long-distance races must be considered, it’s important to note that Dandino was in very good form prior to his St. Leger win last year, as he entered the race off two runner-up efforts at the group II level in England, one of which was the Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot. This year, Dandino has finished sixth in both of his outings, and does not appear to be at the same level of competitive readiness as he was last year. Thus, I’ll be taking a stand against him with Eye of the Storm, a group III winner from the barn of Aidan O’Brien. Eye of the Storm has won at distances as long as two miles, and is accustomed to carrying much more weight (as much as 138 pounds) than the 121 he will be asked to carry on Saturday.

I’ll also give a close look to Suntracer, runner-up in this race last year and most recently a sharp third in the Stars and Stripes Handicap (gr. III) here at Arlington.

Secretariat Stakes (gr. I)

Aidan O’Brien holds a strong hand in this race as well, being the conditioner of both the 8-5 morning line favorite Adelaide and the 20-1 shot Belisarius. Adelaide has already made one trip to the U.S., finishing second by just a neck in the Belmont Derby (gr. I) on July 5th. A repeat of that performance would make him difficult to beat on Saturday, but I believe that Tourist is up to the task. The Bill Mott-trained colt is unbeaten in three starts on turf, and possesses excellent tactical speed that should allow him to seize command from the start and dare his rivals to catch him. Granted, he’ll be stretching out three-sixteenths of a mile farther than he has ever run before, and that is a legitimate concern. But in his last two starts, he has run the final half-mile in :46.30 and :45.35 seconds, suggesting that the stretch-out in distance is well within his capabilities.

If you want a longshot, General Jack (12-1) might be worth a look. He’s won his last two starts on turf, including a stakes race, with strong final quarter-mile times. And even Belisarius could be considered, for he has demonstrated good recent form at 11 and 12 furlongs in England, albeit against lesser company.

Beverly D. Stakes (gr. I)

I have been waiting all year for Stephanie’s Kitten to return to form, which she finally did last time out when beaten a neck by Somali Lemonade in the Diana Stakes (gr. I) at Saratoga. Given that Stephanie’s Kitten closed nearly four lengths into an :11.45-second final furlong—an incredible feat!—she must be used in the pick four, but as the morning line favorite at 7-2, her odds are a bit unappealing in this very deep field.

Unfortunately, the odds on her expected challengers are unappealing as well. Alterite, third in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf (gr. I) last November, made her seasonal debut in the Diana and was beaten just three lengths despite a less-than-ideal pace-pressing trip. She figures to be considerably sharper today, but is the 4-1 second choice on the morning line. The European invader Just the Judge won the Irish 1,000 Guineas (Ire-I) last May, but has lost every one of her six starts since then. A third-place finish last time out in the Pretty Polly Stakes (Ire-I) suggests that she is returning to form, but she’s a relatively low 6-1 on the morning line.

For those that would like to try and land a large price in a wide-open race, I’m Already Sexy (20-1) should be considered. She won the Modesty Handicap (gr. III) at Arlington last time out, and—perhaps more importantly—she’s unbeaten in four starts over the Arlington turf course. Yes, she would need to step up to defeat a field of this caliber, but 20-1 is more than fair value on this talented filly.

One horse I plan to play against is Somali Lemonade. True, she has won three of her last four starts on the turf, including the Diana, but she may find it difficult to get to her customary position on the lead while starting from post eleven. Furthermore, the ten-furlong distance may prove a bit far for her.

Arlington Million (gr. I)

2013 Breeders’ Cup Turf (gr. I) winner Magician is the 7-5 morning line favorite, and could potentially go off at even lower than that. The Aidan O’Brien-trained colt has kept good company all year, and while he only has a group III victory on his 2014 record, he has placed in a pair of top-notch group I races and should relish the firm turf he will likely find at Arlington.

For those playing the pick four, the talent of Magician presents an interesting quandary—should he be a single? If one decides to single him, that makes plenty of sense—it leaves you with more opportunity to spread in the earlier races. Furthermore, if you don’t single him, then who else do you include on your ticket? Prix d’Harcourt (Fr-II) winner Smoking Sun seems as good as any, and Real Solution won this race last year via disqualification. Side Glance has won and placed in group stakes races across the globe, including last year’s Arlington Million. Up With the Birds just romped in the Nijinsky Stakes (Can-II) at Woodbine. Finnegans Wake won the Arlington Handicap (gr. III) here at Arlington last time out. Hardest Core has compiled a terrific record on the turf against lesser company.

But at the same time, Magician is coming off one of the worst races of his career last time out, having finished sixth by fourteen lengths in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes (Eng-I) at Ascot. That performance introduces just enough question marks about his current form to make trying to beat him a tempting possibility.

So my strategy would be to construct a pair of pick four tickets, one singling Magician while going wide in the other races, and the other going deep in the Million and going smaller earlier in the sequence. The two tickets would look something like this:

TICKET #1

Eye of the Storm/Suntracer
Adelaide/Tourist/General Jack
Stephanie’s Kitten/Alterite/Just the Judge/I’m Already Sexy
Magician

TICKET #2

Eye of the Storm
Adelaide/Tourist
Stephanie’s Kitten/Alterite/Just the Judge
Smoking Sun/Real Solution/Side Glance

Who do you like this weekend?

78 Comments

Leave a Comment:

jockey2be

I am rooting for Up With The Birds.I have a feeling that Finnegans Wake will be in the money.But honestly I have no clue!

14 Aug 2014 6:02 PM
Brontexx

Keelerman I noticed you play the favorite on your tickets in every race except the first the St Leger.

Horses who I think have a shot who you dont mention one in each race starting with the St Leger down in sequence to the Million.

1 Big Kick 6-1

2 Canthelpbelieving 12-1

3 Somali Lemonade 6-1

4 Up with the Birds 6-1

14 Aug 2014 8:55 PM
-Keelerman

Brontexx & jockey2be;

Thanks for your thoughts! I probably didn't give as much respect to Up With the Birds as I should have. His run in the Nijinsky II really was an excellent performance... perhaps I should exchange him for Side Glance, who tends to hit the board much more frequently than he wins.

In the Secretariat Stakes, I would have given Can'thelpbelieving a close look, but unfortunately, he is an early scratch. I didn't hear if the reason was illness or injury, but the word is that he's not quite 100%. Hopefully, he'll be back in good shape before long!

On a side note, good old Alpha is entered to run on Sunday in the Alydar Stakes at Saratoga. It will be his first start since finishing fifth in the Mac Diarmida Stakes (gr. II) over the Gulfstream turf back in February. Win or lose, the Alydar should set him up well to try and defend his title in the Woodward Stakes (gr. I), where he will likely meet Moreno, Will Take Charge, Palace Malice, Itsmyluckyday, Lea, and possibly even Wise Dan. What a race that would be!

14 Aug 2014 10:29 PM
JayJay

Keelerman :  Stephanie's Kitten at 7-2 is still a very good price in the P4.  I like the fact that they made her 7-2 because it really opens up the race betting wise specially for people who wants to find a single.  Having said that, she is a vulnerable favorite.

07 :   Havana Beat / Dandino

08 :  Adelaide / Divine Oath

09 :  Euro Charline / Stephanie’s Kitten

10 :  Side Glance / Magician / Real Solution / Smoking Sun

Good luck !

14 Aug 2014 10:40 PM
Monarchos Matt

This is one of my biggest weekends of the year as Arlington is my home track. I hit the Pick 4 last year with Real Solution closing out a best case scenario, but duplicating that feat will be no small task this year, as the St. Leger and Beverly D fields are far deeper than they were last year, and the Million field, while short at only 7 entered, is loaded with class and talent.

I'm still waiting to get a feel for how the turf will play Saturday. It rained a bit over night here in Chicago on Tuesday but has been sunny and cool since, yet the turf was still yielding today at Arlington, which is bizarre, and worth keeping an eye on. Some quick thoughts on the Pick 4, and I'll check back tomorrow with some final selections:

ST LEGER: The toughest race to figure out on the card, which is ironic, considering the last two years have provided can't lose singles to start the Pick 4. This year, this is probably where I'll go deepest, although I'm trying to keep it to 3 instead of 4. I really think SUNTRACER has a home field advantage here and is in career form. This distance is what he wants and if anyone is going to knock off a Euro, it's him. DANDINO deserves respect despite his recent form, remember, he crushed EYE OF THE STORM in their most recent meeting, although neither ran well. The Euro that intrigues me most is MOMENT IN TIME, who ran a classy 4th in a Group 2 race in Dubai contested at 2 miles. She takes a bit of a class leap, but certainly won't mind the distance or the surface if it comes up softer than expected. If she's anywhere near her morning line, run to the windows. EYE OF THE STORM deserves a look, but I can't see him turning the tables on Dandino in his first US start on just 9 days rest and only 3 days after shipping in…

SECRETARIAT: A fascinating race, even if the odds look far from interesting on the obvious contenders. ADELAIDE is probably the most likely winner on the day, and rumor has it that O'Brien plans to use BELISARIUS, who looks otherwise outclassed, as a rabbit to soften up TOURIST on the front end. If he doesn't, that one looks like lone speed, and while he's never run past 8.5f, his pedigree and come home times don't discourage his potential to do so with authority. The horse that no one is talking about that I actually think stands a shot to upset is GLOBAL VIEW. I'm cooler on him the softer the turf gets, but this is a horse that is begging for 10f and already has a hard closing Grade II win to his credit, and has easily defeated two of his fellow runners here, DIVINE OATH and GENERAL JACK. If you toss his last, where he had a rough, wide trip, and hated the wet turf, he stands a shot here with the added distance at a great price…I think he'll be higher than his 5-1 ML.

BEVERLY D- A deep field, and I was disappointed to see the ML Odds on the two I was planning to support come out where they were. STEPHANIE'S KITTEN is sitting on a big one as she stretches out past 9f finally, and she'll get loads of pace to run into with EMOLLIENT, LA TIA, I'M ALREADY SEXY, SOMALI LEMONADE and potentially EURO CHARLINE from her inside post all figure to want the lead…I am hard against all of them. ALTERITE needed her last and will rebound here, just wish the clunker she threw provided a better wagering opportunity! A Euro has won the last three runnings of this race, so JUST THE JUDGE has to be included on some level, and her mid-pack running style should also benefit from the pace setup as she figures to save ground from the rail with all the speed drawn far outside of her.

MILLION- A paceless race, which I think could heavily compromise the chances of MAGICIAN, especially cutting back to 10f, and while he has to be used defensively in the Pick 4 I don't want any part of him at even money in outright bets. Remember, he did easily beat defending champ REAL SOLUTION in the BC Turf, but that one had him at the 10f point that day into a similarly slow pace. But the horse that most intrigues me is SMOKING SUN, who I think will be tactically placed and ready to roll off the layoff. He may not be 9-2 but if he is, he represents by far the best value at this distance. He bested last year's 3rd place finisher SIDE GLANCE by and easy 5 lengths in Singapore, while REAL SOLUTION was only 2 lengths ahead of that one last year in this race. Speaking of SIDE GLANCE, he stands an upsetter's chance, as he figures to be the leader by default here, and is gritty and classy enough to pull the upset.

14 Aug 2014 10:48 PM
KY VET

UNBRIDLED FOREVER WAKES UP!!!!!!

14 Aug 2014 10:48 PM
Brontexx

Monarchos Matt you wrote that you won this bet last year and you write about a lot of horses so post your EXACT ticket(s) so we can get a different perspective from Keelermans tickets.GL to all

15 Aug 2014 3:43 AM
Monarchos Matt

Brontexx,

Will do, still trying to get a feel for the track condition and trying to decide how deep to go in St. Leger...last year was much easier as I was able to single Dandino and go only two deep in the Beverly D, and hitting those left me live to more value in the Million. Will have to go deeper in both of those races this year however so this will be challenging.

15 Aug 2014 8:31 AM
English Pete

American St Leger - fixed odds available in the UK: 10/3 Dandino, 9/2 Eye of the Storm, 7/1 Suntracer and The Pizza Man, 10/1 upwards the rest.  Dandino is clearly fancied and carrying 119 lbs has been given a right chance, but he's looked to have fallen out of love with the game this season. I'm with Monarchos Matt on swerving Eye of the Storm. I like Suntracer in this, as he has no weight and likes Arlington. However, he has something to find with The Pizza Man so that one will also be on my ticket.

Secretariat - fixed odds available: 6/5 Adelaide, 7/2 Tourist, 10/1 and upwards the rest.  Adelaide is poor value and I like Tourist, who looked good last time and seems on the upgrade. I'll include Sheldon as a long shot. He has 4 lengths to make up with Adelaide from Belmont, but got no run at a critical stage when he had plenty left in the tank.

Beverly D - fixed odds: 9/2 Steph's Kitten, 5/1 Euro Charline and Alterite, 6/1 Just the Judge, 8/1 and upwards the rest.  I want to oppose Euro Charline as (the outstanding Taghrooda excepted) our 3 year old fillies aren't great; and I'm opposing Just the Judge as I think she's regressed since Royal Ascot 2013. Also she has a long late run rather than the sharp burst of speed that I'd prefer on this track. I'm forgetting Alterite's last run and going with her. She has the back form in Europe to take this, though I think the odds are mean. Since the Beverly D was resurrected in 2000, every winner was either trained in Europe or started its racing career in Europe. On this flimsy basis I'll also take a flier on Tannery who is 12/1. She seems inconsistent but some of her form is not bad. Alterite for me though.

Million - fixed odds: 5/4 Magician, 4/1 Real Solution, 6/1 Smoking Sun, 8/1 upwards the rest. Magician is the most likely winner, but has to be opposed at the odds. He has run flat on every occasion this season despite a reasonable level of form. I struggle to single out one horse to oppose him with, but Real Solution is my preference as he has a sharp burst of speed. Smoking Sun closes but takes a while to get going. I respect Up With the Birds, but can't have Side Glance or the other two.

My tickets (probably):

#1 Suntracer/The Pizza Man/Admiral Kitten; Tourist/Sheldon; Alterite/Tannery; Real Solution

#2 Suntracer/The Pizza Man; Adelaide; Alterite/Tannery/Stephanie's Kitten; Real Solution/Up With the Birds

15 Aug 2014 8:37 AM
Pedigree Ann

It's early spring, the local Grand National has been run (won by Eric the Viking), and the first Group race of the new season is coming up on Saturday in New Zealand. The Foxbridge Plate (G3) is a 1200m wfa to get the ball rolling and open the lungs, as they say, of horses pointing to longer races as the season advances. It will be run by the Waikato Racing Club at the Te Rapa racecourse, built on the flat of on old river bed, and has been won in the past by such legends as Syntax and Mainbrace (both local Derby and St. Leger winners) but none in that class are running  this year. Foxbridge, by the way, was a GB-bred (1930) who stood in New Zealand, where he won the leading sire title 11 times.

15 Aug 2014 9:24 AM
Secreteriat

Saratoga has not been good to me. I hope to make amends at Arlington.

07: 11 Suntracer 2 Dandino 10 Pizzaman

08: 6  Adelaide   1 Global View 9  Tourist

09: 9  Alterite   5 Stephanie's Kitten 9 Tourist

10: 6  Real Solution 3 Magician 2 Smoking Sun  7  Side Glance.

We have BOLD CRUSADER #7 tomorrow running at Saratoga in the 6th race.

He is by Curlin (Smart Strike) by One For Jim (Distorted Humor)

Steve is very high on this horse and we hope to win this race followed by the Champaign at Belmont.

Look for my son in the saddling area and hopefully in the Winner's Circle!. Wish us luck and GL to all of you tomorrow.

15 Aug 2014 10:16 AM
Secreteriat

OOPS

R9 Third horse should be Tannery

15 Aug 2014 10:35 AM
Brontexx

Secreteriat are you going to play that ticket(P4) or is that a play for the blog?

15 Aug 2014 10:41 AM
Brontexx

There is a Bold Conquest in the 6th at Saratoga tommorrow, and he is listed as owned by Ackerley Brothers Farm.The breeder is Glory Days Breeding Inc.

15 Aug 2014 10:50 AM
Secreteriat

Brontexx

Yes, subject to turf conditions

15 Aug 2014 11:06 AM
JerseyBoy

I take Up With The Birds to do it at Arlington.

Kingston Hill has been taken out of the race at Newbury on Saturday.

15 Aug 2014 11:18 AM
Coldfacts

Secreteriat,

BOLD CRUSADER: Interestingly bred horse.

His sire Curlin bred only 100 mares in 2012 and that's about the number I am comfortable with. Beyond that I consider a stallion overbred.

His dam was lightly raced based on the data base I accessed. My preference for unraced or lightly raced mares is well documented.

Dam sire Distorted Humor has an excellent record as a sire but is not so proficient as a broodmare sire. However, it should be noted that his is the dam sire of the undefeated Constitution.

Both sire and dam sire are grandsons of Mr. Prospector. Despite the dominance of Triple Crown races by horses from the Mr. Prospector sire line, only Mine That Bird's pedigree reflects a Mr. P line stallion with a Mr. P line broodmare sire.

There are not a lot of winners of TC races whose sires and dam sires have previously sired the winners of TC races. Curlin sire Belmont winner Palace Malice and Distorted Humor sired Funny Cide and Drosselmeyer.

Super Saver and A P Indy were products of sires and dam sires that previously sired winner of TC races.

From a historic perspective, if I had to score the pedigree profile of this horse for Triple Crown purposes on scale of 1 to 10, I would give it a 5. The 5 does not represent it likely ability but rather it likelihood of being the winner of a TC race.

15 Aug 2014 12:57 PM
-Keelerman

Great thoughts, Monarchos Matt! I'm afraid I overlooked the fact that Eye of the Storm is running back off of just nine days rest... that is a bit of a concern. I'll be sure to give Moment in Time a closer look!

Secreteriat;

WOW! That's fantastic! Good luck tomorrow! I'll be watching and cheering for you!

15 Aug 2014 1:29 PM
-Keelerman

There's been another scratch from the Secretariat Stakes, as Belisarius was withdrawn this morning after coming down with a cough: www.drf.com/.../belisarius-veterinarians-scratch-secretariat-stakes

15 Aug 2014 2:49 PM
JerseyBoy

Secreteriat:

There is no 2yo named Bold Crusader.

Are you talking about Bold Conquest?

15 Aug 2014 3:09 PM
Secreteriat

Coldfacts,

Thank you for your research and opinion,

We're not quite thinking T/C yet but tomorrow will be a good test of what we have. Pletcher and Lukas are our competition and after that there are 3 Super Saver offspring that have shown that are at the top of the 3 yr old crop. We are excited because Steve trained Curlin and I am not saying this horse is as good but his words are "we are going to have some fun with this horse!" One race at a time and we will be very happy if he is graded placed, anything above that would be icing on the cake.

Keelerman,

Thank you.

I will keep you informed with his progress going forward.

15 Aug 2014 3:11 PM
Secreteriat

Coldfacts,

One more thing,

Go a bit deeper on the dam side.

Jersey Girl who also was owned by this group won 2 legs of the Triple Tiara before getting injured and bred to A P Indy

15 Aug 2014 3:22 PM
Secreteriat

Sorry folks,

Bold Conquest is the name.

Have no idea where I got crusader.

15 Aug 2014 3:36 PM
Monarchos Matt

Here's what I'm looking at for the All Stakes Pick 4:

Suntracer, Dandino, Moment In Time/

Adelaide, Tourist, Global View/

Stephanie's Kitten, Alterite, Just The Judge/

Smoking Sun, Real Solution, Magician

The horses that worry me most to leave off are Pizza Man and Eye of the Storm. I feel confident I will get out of the other three races. If the turf is wetter, I may switch out Global View for Eye of the Storm. Otherwise the above will likely be my play.

Early Pick 4 Play:

Tazz, Positive Side/

Luck of The Kitten, Inavanti/

Mizzen Miss, Colonel Joan/

I Got It All, Bourbonize

15 Aug 2014 5:12 PM
Secreteriat

R7  Adding Eye of the Storm

R 10 Removing Side Glance

Good luck

15 Aug 2014 10:32 PM
TnT

Been travelling just checked entries.

Saratoga been great to me this year noticed Mosler is finally running in Race 8, big horse, will be playing him off the layoff

AP, keeping it simple

Eye of the Storm ( Pizza Man place)

Adelaide

Alterite ( Euro Charline place)

Magician

15 Aug 2014 10:36 PM
TnT

Mosler no lasix, maybe not

15 Aug 2014 10:40 PM
JayJay

English Pete : At the time you posted, Eye Of the Storm was the favorite ?  Interesting odds on Dandino (unless that was a typo).  I have to take a look at Eye Of the Storm, I figured he would take some money but didn't think he would be favorite but looks like he's getting a lot of attention...I blame Keelerman's blog hehe.

15 Aug 2014 11:10 PM
English Pete

Hi JayJay, it wasn't a typo. Dandino was 10/3 with Eye of the Storm 9/2. It's still the same as I write at 9.30am UK time Saturday morning. 10/3 is shorter than 9/2 though, so Dandino is favourite.

By the way, with Belisarius out of the Secretariat I've taken the 7/2 Tourist this morning - I know Adelaide is strongly fancied but 7/2 seems great value for lone speed. Can't wait for the races to start - yours is about 3 times better than ours today so thank goodness for live streaming! Also it'll be after dinner, so I have an excuse to watch it with an open bottle of wine.

16 Aug 2014 4:36 AM
Pedigree Ann

THe Foxbridge Plate has been run and the winner was I Do, a 7yo grey mare. In fact, the first three home were mares. The multiple G1-winning mare Viadana was down the field, but as I said - pipe-opener for her, pointing for longer contests in future. Same comment for Veyron (gelding), whose best distance is 1600-2000m. Again for Xanadu, dual G1 winning mare at 1600m. Kiwis don't mind if their horses lose a race that they are using for 'preparation'. The bettors know what is going on and weigh accordingly.

16 Aug 2014 6:03 AM
Pedigree Ann

About the Million - if the pace is slow, who wins? In the US we believe it is the front-runner, but this is only true if the horse still has some sprint left in him. If he has tried the distance and the tactic before and not been successful, then...,

Another word for finishing sprint is 'turn-of-foot'. If a horse with turn-of-foot is able to track the slow leader, not fall far behind, then he may be able to out-sprint the leader to the wire. The horses who are in trouble are those that need the leader(s) to tire from their early exertions in order to stay on past them, the ones who don't possess the turn-of-foot, who can't quicken in a few strides.

So much for theory - what about application? Who is going to lead? Hardest Core, most likely; maybe with Side Glance or Finnegan's Wake if they go slowly enough. Who has turn of foot? Magician, for certain; Up with the Birds and Real solution, to a lesser extent, maybe. No data for Smokin Sun, who has been keeping excellent company - being able to hit the board behind the top-notcher Cirrus des Aigles indicates quality.

Also, one must be very careful about the ground. Magician is less effective on soft, and Smokin Sun's best winning efforts have been on firmer courses as well. Some of the others are okay on either.

16 Aug 2014 6:46 AM
Coldfacts

Secreteriat,

I just watched debut for Bold Conquest and he ran  extremely well over a distance I consider short for his pedigree.  To be beaten by one of Todd P's 2YOs at Saratoga is in itself a victory.

Saturday's distance will be much suitable for the colt and I wish your connections and the colt all the best.

There is a debutant (Zennor)in the race for Godolphin. I find it unusual that the colt is not starting out in the Darley colors. Normally Darley is the nursery for Godolphin and consequently he must have shown a ton of ability in the mornings to be racing in the Godolphin colors first time asking.

Zennor is a January foal and I just hate horses with said month of birth. His dam line screams turf as  1st, 2nd & 3rd dam sires are all turf types. His dam sire Night Shift is a rarely seen son of Northern Dancer. With the excellence of the ND broodmare line no comments are necessary.

A Medaglia D' Oro grey with a turf pedigree, debuting of dirt is very suspicious.

16 Aug 2014 9:24 AM
Secreteriat

Today is the Thrill of Victory or The Agony of Defeat for me.

Saratoga R 6

$200 Win $ 300 Place Bold Conquest (7)

$100 Exacta Bold Conquest (7) Money Changer (6)

$20 TRI 6/7 w 6/7 with 3/4/6/7 Same with Sharm & Noble Hustle in third.

Alabama

Got Lucky/Stopcharging Maria/Size Tri Box

Good Luck

16 Aug 2014 9:36 AM
Secreteriat

Thanks Coldfacts,

I just got a text from my son who is at the barn.

He said B C is trying to bite him! That is a good sign he is ready to run!

16 Aug 2014 10:08 AM
Secreteriat

Fresh from the horses mouth,

Steve told my son that (8) Zennor may be the one we have to beat. This horse is turf bred and these connection rarely run 2 yr olds on dirt.

With that said I will replace Sharm with Zennor and use Sharm in a super in 3rd &4

16 Aug 2014 10:27 AM
Secreteriat

Codfacts,

You are right about Zennor. Read my previous post. I heard it ass soon right after I read yours.

16 Aug 2014 10:32 AM
Coldfacts

Arlington Million: I like this gelding to run big. He apparently suffered an injury and left the stables of the overrated Kiaran McLaughlin in October of 2013.  He returned approximately 9 months later to win his two starts for new trainer Edward Graham.

His 1st start for the new barn was on 06/28/2014 at Parx over 8.5F. He won convincingly by 3L. He was then shipped 16 days later to Delaware to contest a 12F handicap race and again won convincingly. A 12F race 16 day after a 8.5F race is unusual and the fact that the gelding won so easily, signaled he is much improve off his respite.

He appears to be the speed in the field and if he can  get away with modest fractions he is unlikely to be caught as his as some very long stride that will make him tough to pass in the lane.

He lacks the class of the others but I believe is talented to enough be in the mix. At a ML of 20-1 he must be good value for money in the exotics. Even better if he wins.

He is my value horse.

16 Aug 2014 11:02 AM
-Keelerman

Good luck, Secreteriat!! What an exciting day! Actually, I think I'm more excited about watching Bold Conquest than I am about watching the Arlington Million!

16 Aug 2014 11:40 AM
-Keelerman

Today's scratches at Arlington have been announced, but fortunately, there were no surprising withdrawals from the four major stakes races. The only scratches were Hardest Core from the St. Leger (he'll run in the Million instead) and Belisarius and Can'thelpbeliving from the Secretariat.

I'd like to thank everyone for sharing their thoughts on today's all-stakes pick four at Arlington! It's been very fun seeing everyone's selections. Good luck to all! I hope someone hits it!

16 Aug 2014 11:48 AM
-Keelerman

Pedigree Ann;

Thanks for the update on the Foxbridge Plate! I've never really followed racing in New Zealand, but it sounds very interesting! I'll keep my eyes open for Viadana, Veyron, and Xanadu in the future!

16 Aug 2014 12:00 PM
Secreteriat

Thank you Keelerman, Coldfacts for all your well wishes.

I was invited just yesterday but it was too short notice for me to go. Oh well the Champagne at Belmont or the B C Juvenile. I know I'm dreaming big but Steve took us to the Preakness with Snuck In and it was a thrill of a lifetime winning at Calder, Rebel, 2nd in the Arkansas Derby and Ran against Fusaichi Pegasus and Red Bullett

16 Aug 2014 12:48 PM
Brontexx

Here are the tickets of the members of this blog that are playing the all-stakes pick 4 at Arlington Park.

Keelerman

TICKET #1

Eye of the Storm/Suntracer

Adelaide/Tourist/General Jack

Stephanie’s Kitten/Alterite/Just the Judge/I’m Already Sexy

Magician

TICKET #2

Eye of the Storm

Adelaide/Tourist

Stephanie’s Kitten/Alterite/Just the Judge

Smoking Sun/Real Solution/Side Glance

Monarchos Matt

Suntracer, Dandino, Moment In Time/

Adelaide, Tourist, Global View/

Stephanie's Kitten, Alterite, Just The Judge/

Smoking Sun, Real Solution, Magician

Secreteriat

07: 11 Suntracer 2 Dandino 10 Pizzaman 9 Eye of The Storm

08: 6  Adelaide   1 Global View 9  Tourist

09: 9  Alterite   5 Stephanie's Kitten 9 Tannery

10: 6  Real Solution 3 Magician 2 Smoking Sun  

JayJay

07 :   Havana Beat / Dandino

08 :  Adelaide / Divine Oath

09 :  Euro Charline / Stephanie’s Kitten

10 :  Side Glance / Magician / Real Solution / Smoking Sun

TnT

Eye of the Storm ( Pizza Man place)

Adelaide

Alterite ( Euro Charline place)

Magician

Here are horses that I think have a chance and no one has picked them:

1 Big Kick 6-1

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx2 Canthelpbelieving 12-1 scratched

3 Somali Lemonade 6-1

4 Up with the Birds 6-1

16 Aug 2014 1:27 PM
Brontexx

Now for the $1 betting amounts for each ticket:

Keelerman  has two tickets $24  and $18 total $42

Monarchos Matt has one ticket for $81 which is the same as saying he has 81 different combinations on his ticket since I am using the $1 amount.

Secreteriat has a ticket for $108

JayJay has a ticket for $32 or 32 combinations

TnT is very confident today he is playing the pick 4 straight for $1.

Now let me calculate how many combinations there are in this pick 4 by all means someone can calculate this also to make sure I havent made a mistake:

10x7x11x7=5390  there are a possible 5390 combinations so if one of the bloggers hits it that person will have been very fortunate since the highest number of combinations on any one ticket is 108 for Secreteriat.

Now I will combine ALL the picks made by the blog and figure out how many conbinations were covered:

Here is what the combination ticket looks like as far as combinations:

6x5x6x4=720 combinations out of a possible 5390

Here is the combination ticket:

Dandino  Eye Of The Storm   Havana Beat   Moment In Time   Pizzaman   Suntracer=6

Adelaide  Divine Oath   General Jack   Global View

Tourist=5

Alterite   Euro Charline   Im Already Sexy   Just The Judge  Stephanies Kitten  Tannery=6

Magician   Real Solution  Side Glance   Smoking Gun=4

There are 4 horses that arent on the tickets in the 7th

2 horses that arent on the ticket in the 8th

5 horses that arent on the ticket in the 9th

3 horses that arent on the ticket in the 10th

16 Aug 2014 2:35 PM
English Pete

Just to make sure everybody is aware: Euro Charline, Just the Judge and Smoking Sun are not using Lasix.

16 Aug 2014 3:26 PM
predict

Magician looks tough here, will go with three, Smoking Sun, Magician and Up with the Birds(the Canadian champ)

 Kri Tashaus

16 Aug 2014 3:38 PM
Secreteriat

YES YES YES !!!!!!

16 Aug 2014 4:09 PM
-Keelerman

Bold Conquest wins by a head in a thrilling finish!! Congratulations, Secreteriat!

16 Aug 2014 4:10 PM
Secreteriat

Thank You,

I hope some of you cashed in.

7.60 was a gift

16 Aug 2014 4:20 PM
English Pete

Hey Secreteriat, well done you (and the horse). Top notch!

16 Aug 2014 4:27 PM
-Keelerman

Congratulations to Secreteriat and English Pete on using The Pizza Man at 5-1 in the opening leg of the all-stakes pick four! That was a great way to start the sequence -- good luck in the next three legs!

16 Aug 2014 4:57 PM
Mary Zinke

Million, Side Glance, Real Solution,up with The Birds, Smoking Sun

Alabama, Got Lucky, Size, Fortune Pearl, Maria

Del Mar Oaks, Diversy Harbor, My Conquestadory, Famous Alice, Tepin

16 Aug 2014 5:07 PM
-Keelerman

With one minute to post time for the Secretariat Stakes, Divine Oath is a surprisingly high 11-1. I thought his 8-1 morning line price was actually a bit high, and figured he would go off at a bit lower than that -- not higher!

Now he's 12-1 as they get ready to enter the gate. JayJay, I know you liked his chances, so good luck if you're betting! He's a terrific price!

16 Aug 2014 5:22 PM
-Keelerman

What a finish in the Secretariat Stakes! It looked like Adelaide was going to concede the advantage when he started drifting outward in the stretch (I wonder what was up?), but in the end, he proved best by about a length over a very game Tourist.

Secreteriat;

Two down, two to go in the pick four! Good luck!

16 Aug 2014 5:28 PM
English Pete

Well, on my #2 ticket I was running on to Stephanie's Kitten (plus Alterite and Tannery). Did Dettori think he was on Pegasus? My goodness me. Anyway, my fault because I was keen to oppose the Euros. That Ryan Moore is one terrific jockey, by the way, and I think Euro Charline owes her victory to a sumptuous ride.

16 Aug 2014 6:09 PM
Pedigree Ann

Keelerman - http://www.nzracing.co.nz/ is where I go for my info. They have great replays, too - hi def, like Kee.

16 Aug 2014 6:16 PM
-Keelerman

Coldfacts;

Fantastic job of handicapping with Hardest Core in the Arlington Million! I hope you had a sizable win wager at 11-!

16 Aug 2014 6:54 PM
-Keelerman

Thanks for the link, Pedigree Ann! I'll check it out!

16 Aug 2014 6:55 PM
JayJay

Coldfacts : Nice pick on the 1 horse for the Arlington, hope you loaded up on him on the WIN and Exacta.

Secreteriat :  Congrats on your horse winning, that must've been a thrill specially for your son who was there to see him win.  I didn't get to see the race but will watch the replay.   I'll keep an eye on him and hopefully he makes it to the TC trail !

17 Aug 2014 1:19 AM
Brontexx

Coldfacts you needed to make up a pick 4 ticket with Hardest Core on it so the blog could have hit the pick 4,on the otherhand it paid $4327.40 for a $1 ticket and adding Hardest Core to the blogs ticket would have added another number in the last leg the Arlington Million which by checking my previous entry on August 16 at 2:35 PM the ticket would have cost 6x5x6x5=900

The ENTIRE blog could have hit it by betting $900 to

win $4327.40 which is 4.8 to 1 odds which is not really what your looking for.Coldfacts should have convinced the blog that the most they could win was about $5000 and that they should spend half of the $900 dollars which would be $450 on a win bet on Hardest Core that would have netted $5625 and if the blog hit the pic 4 with the other $450 they had a chance to get more than 10-1 on their money for a bet that is hard to hit and when it isnt it dosent pay that much because at least two favorites win.Coldfacts would have netted the blog 11.50 to 1 in only one race and then other bloggers wouldnt have to try and ridicule him with coded submissions.GL to all

17 Aug 2014 3:15 AM
Pedigree Ann

Oops, missed a bet I should have made. Was greatly impressed by Euro Charline's races on 'the mainland' (what Northern Irish call the island of Britain), but didn't bet. Didn't even THINK of betting last night (had to stay up almost to midnight). Strange. Guess was too tired to think of it.

As to the Million winner, this is what I sent to a fellow pedigree geek after he won the stakes at Delaware:

First thing I noticed is that his sire's second dam AND his own second dam were half-sisters to Belmont winners, Little Current and High Echelon, respectively. No wonder he could handle 12f. Not to mention Turkoman and Roberto close up.

I won't say it was a shame, because there were too many sprinting stallions around even then, but it must have been a disappointment to many at how bad a stallion Housebuster turned out to be. Although to be fair, he was as much a miler as a sprinter, having won the REAL Jerome, the King's Bishop, the Carter, the Derby Trial, and the REAL Vosburgh. Had a lot of older-type American strains in him, too. Seems he didn't deter the Luquillo strain from getting through to Hard Core.

17 Aug 2014 6:16 AM
Brontexx

BTW before they ran the Million I looked at the will pays and if Magician wins the pick 4 would have paid over $600 and the blogs ticket would have won the bet but lost money imagine all that trouble to lose money

$720-$690. If Real Solution wins the payoff was over $900 again whats the logic of betting 700 to win 900.

In regards to Hardest Core he was the only runner in ALL four of the races coming into the race with a three race winning streak so Im sure his connections werent that surprised as the betting public seemed to be.

17 Aug 2014 9:11 AM
Coldfacts

I have been repeatedly critical of trainer Kiaran McLaughlin and some have come to his defense highlighting his percentage. That bit of information is fine but is does not take away from the fact that his program produces gross inconsistencies and breakdowns. Sometimes I think he is grossly deficient as a trainer.

Can any one name one horse under his keep and care that has shown ability that didn’t get injured and MIA for long periods?

An example of his deficiency that was on display at Saratoga on Saturday.  Baratti contested the 5th race off a 5 months respite. The colt was literally pulled at the top of the stretch. How is it possible for horse to be off for 5 months and return to run one of the worst races of his career?

The colt has a very high leg action and appears to be a turf type. Despite this obvious fact it has never been tried on either turf or synthetic. However, its allowed to struggle on a surface that clearly does suit its action. I could be wrong about the colt but at least try something different.

If owned that colt what exactly could a trainer tell me after 5 months evaluate and chart a new course to get the colt to perform at its best?

he would hear Donald Trump's favorite words - You are fired!

Kiaran McLaughlin was the former trainer of 2014 Arlington winner Hardest Core. Like all Mr. McLaughlin’s horses, the gelding appear to have sustained an injury that required it being away for a long period and in his case, 9 months. Unlike Baratti when Hardest Core returned from his respite he rolled off 2 impressive victories leading to his winning effort in his first G1 attempt against a small by quality field.

Under Mr. McLaughlin keep and care the gelding would not have been directed to the 2014 Arlington Million.  He probably would not have contested a 12F race 16 days after an 8.5F race either. It is unlikely that he would have won as under Mr. McLaughlin program 33 days would not be enough time to recover from a 12F race to contest a tough G1 over 10F against seasoned turf horses from Europe.

Percentages can be boasted by having a large stable. If said percentages are used solely to assess the quality of trainers, important deficiencies in their programs that are not expressed in percentages are sadly missed.  

17 Aug 2014 9:13 AM
Coldfacts

Secreteriat,

Congratulations are in order. The colt showed the sort of fight one likes to see in a thoroughbred. I am still of the opinion he will be better going longer. I am sure Mr. Ammussen knows best.  

To win a 2YO race a Saratoga is a significant achievement but to do it again a horse conditioned by the King Of Saratoga is icing on the cake. I wish you and the connection continued success in what we all know is a tough game

Regarding the eventual race favorite, he was a loser before the gates opened. Upon seeing the colt I turned to a friend and stated that he looked awful. How a horse from such a big and powerful stable, be presented so poorly baffles the mind. Was his groom asleep on the job?

When a horse is place in Godolphin's famous blue silks if it does not run the part it should at least look the part.

The colt ran much better than it looked and it must have a lot of ability. He has a significant turf pedigree on the dam side but his action is not that of a turf horse.

17 Aug 2014 9:31 AM
Coldfacts

Brontexx,

Hardest Core PP's suggested he would improve significantly if removed from Mr. McLaughlin stable.

I know this might appear after the fact but his two previous efforts over 10F were very completive. His 4th & 5th starts were over 10F and that's a rarity in the US. He won one and finished a close 2nd in the other. His 6th start was over 9.5F where he closed 10L of the leader to win. These were starts as a 3YO.

With 9 months to grow into his big frame and the routing ability he showed as a 3YO, it is not surprising that he came back bigger, stronger and better as a 4YO.

What impressed me the most about him was his return race at Parx. He uncurled some ground devouring strides at he top of the stretch to pull away from his opponents impressively. He appear extremely big for a Hard Spun and had the look of a G1 animal.

If Wicked Strong wins the Travers Hard Spun would probably be the first stallion to sire the winner of the Million and the Travers in the same season.

Hard Spun never won a major G1 race over a distance of ground but is certainly proving to be the best stallion of the big 4 from the 3YO class of 2007.

(Street Sense, Curlin, Any Given Saturday & Hard Spun)

17 Aug 2014 9:59 AM
Coldfacts

Secreteriat,

Congratulations are in order. The colt showed the sort of fight one likes to see in a thoroughbred. I am still of the opinion he will be better going longer. I am sure Mr. Ammussen knows best.  

To win a 2YO race at Saratoga is a significant achievement but to do it against a horse conditioned by the King Of Saratoga is icing on the cake. I wish you and the connection continued success in what we all know is a tough game

Regarding the eventual race favorite, he was a loser before the gates opened. Upon seeing the colt I turned to a friend and stated that he looked awful. How a horse from such a big and powerful stable could be presented so poorly baffles the mind. Was his groom asleep on the job?

When a horse is placed in Godolphin's famous blue silks if it does not run the part it should at least look the part.

The colt ran much better than it looked and it must have a lot of ability. He has a significant turf pedigree on the dam side but his action is not that of a turf horse.

17 Aug 2014 10:05 AM
Brontexx

Percentages are compiled long term but trainers ALL of them experience good days and bad days so to rely on long term percentages is a Fallacy.

Mclaughlin has ONLY won 3 races at the SPA all of them were female horses and two were graded stakes winners.

17 Aug 2014 10:12 AM
Brontexx

Goldolphin with Mclaughlin dont press their first time starters and as stated its not easy winning MSW races at a 40 meet like Saratoga.The success Mclaughlin does have with first time starters are in much easier races on the NYRA circuit.BTW the last time that I remember Mclaughlin sending a 1st time starter to win at the Spa that was a colt was Alpha who runs today.He does get a lot more fillies that win their first race that pad his 1st time starter stats than colts.Those stats are not provided in either the PPs or free on equibase.

17 Aug 2014 12:14 PM
Secreteriat

Coldfacts,

Thank You,

The horse is happy this morning came out of the race well.

Rosie told Steve that the 8 horse was leaning in on him on the turn and she had to use a little earlier that she wanted to. He would have won much easier if he was not sandwiched between the 6 and the 8 and will bget better as they go longer. Steve is taking him back to Churchill and find an easier spot for him there. he does not want to squeeze the lemon too soon like Srong mandate last year. I will keep you posted.

17 Aug 2014 1:43 PM
TnT

congrats winners to saturday

broke even thanks to euro chatline

Is the BPM on today, like a couple of them today.

18 Aug 2014 10:52 AM
Rusty Weisner

Coldfacts,

Great call on Hardest Core.  Here's something else everyone missed:  the horse was entered in the St. Leger and scratched out for the Million.

I'm glad I was otherwise indisposed and couldn't be tempted to play:  turf cards are hard enough, but that one sounded impossible.  

18 Aug 2014 11:02 AM
Rusty Weisner

Secreteriat,

Congratulations! Refresh my memory -- what's your stake in the horse(s)?

18 Aug 2014 11:13 AM
Secreteriat

Rusty,

My son is GM at the Ackerly Bros Farm. He manages the horse purchases, sales, and breeding operations for them.

I personally do not have ownership.

18 Aug 2014 2:15 PM
Brontexx

TnT tread lightly with BPM as the trainers are near the end of the condition book.I have noticed Pletcher in particular over his last 20 starts here is his record

20-1-6-1 he still has an entrant in the 10race at Saratoga today.Brown over the last three days is

15-3-3-0 and if you didnt bet Mclaughlin yesterday you missed his best play Small World at 17-1 in the fist race at the Spa.Coldfacts seems to downgrade Mclaughlin and then in the next day or two he has good day.He is 11-2-1-1 but those two wins came yesterday.He also had a good winner on Friday he has quietly made a positive move this week with 3 winners.

18 Aug 2014 5:29 PM
Brontexx

My bad Mclaughlin record this week only at the Spa 10-3-1-1.Check out his record now at Equibase you would have never known he was ofer 9 to start this is not the first time I have seen him gain momentum as the meet progresses but the first I remember such a bad start.He has won 3 stakes races and outta the 5 winners he has 3 came this week.Two graded stakes and the Alydar yesterday.As long as he gives Darley and Goldolphin female graded stakes winners on the NYRA circuit his job is safe to the chargrin of his detractors.

18 Aug 2014 5:43 PM
Brontexx

Btw Brown won the last race as the favorite.

18 Aug 2014 5:43 PM
Brontexx

BPM updated over last three days aint the same as the first part of the meet but that is a normal occurrence. Brown 13-4-1-0 made a mistake before I added his Arlington Saturday starters.

Pletcher 21-1-6-1 if you were a weekend warrior and relied on Pletchers whole meet stats for the Spa you would have been relying on misinformation.

Mclaughlin 11-3-2-1 thats 27% win percentage, but yesterday I imagine his stable made good money if its true they bet on his runners.The record at the Spa yesterday 4-2-0-0 and the odds on the winners 17-1 and 7.90-1 of course these odds were slightly deluded as he ran two starters in two different races and you gotta play both in some way,at least in the WPS pools.But I knew Small World a filly stretching out in distance on the turf in a msw and in her 4th career start and she was on the rail that was a bargain at 17-1.If you didnt know he gets a lot of fillies and mares that stretch out their speed with distance, and with her breeding B. f. 3 (Apr)

Sire : A.P. Indy (Seattle Slew) $150,000

Dam: Well Related (Quiet American)

Brdr: Darley (KY)

This type of breeding does not beget many precocious types but horses that gain condition and improve as the distances get longer,but I didnt have to tell you that this is a Bloodhorse blog,GL to all.

18 Aug 2014 7:16 PM
Brontexx

I just realized wrote deluded meant diluted

18 Aug 2014 7:17 PM
Brontexx

BTW JayJay you of the jockey angle it didnt hurt to have the leading rider(money won) up on Small World Irad Ortiz Jr, if you recall I mentioned him before on a day he got me two winners in the only two races I played him(2yos) and his trainer.

18 Aug 2014 7:24 PM

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