Note: This is an excerpt from an analysis of ALL 13 Breeders' Cup races' Pace Scenarios, ranking every one of them in the style you see below. To get the full analysis e-mailed to you tonight, buy the TimeformUS Breeders' Cup Package:
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By TimeformUS Chief Figure Maker Craig Milkowski (@TimeformUSFigs)
The TimeformUS Pace Projector is a tool used to help predict the early position of the runners–1/2 Mile into route races and 1/4 mile in for sprints.
It also adds insight into the strength of a race’s pace and which horses it might favor. This is based on the Pace Gauge Rating (normally not published, but listed here), the surface, and the distance of the race. The Pace Gauge Rating takes into account both the running style of the horses in the field and the adjusted fractions from past races. A Pace Gauge Rating over 6 is considered fast.
The Volatility Rating (One of our little toys, as Bill Murray put it in Ghostbusters) is also typically not published. It is used as a tool to improve the Pace Projector by indicating how many variables exist that could alter the projected pace scenario. The lower the number, the more likely the Pace Projector will be a good indicator for the race. A rating over 20 means the race is very tough to predict, pace-wise.
One thing we don’t account for yet, but probably will in the future, is field size. The bigger the field, the more likely the pace will be faster than anticipated. We will soon publish studies on this…but not this week.
Finally, unless a shipper from outside North America has run in North America, that horse is not accounted for in the Pace Projector. TimeformUS does offer detailed perspective for most races via our partnership with global form leader Timeform, and video replays are available for many races. We put these tools to use in our pace scenario analyses.
For the Breeders’ Cup, we’re also offering The Milkowski Ranking, an assessment of how fast the pace for each race figures to be relative to all of the other Breeders’ Cup races. Below is the Top 3 Breeders’ Cup Hot-Paced Races on the Milkowski Ranking.
Although the Milkowski Rankings typically lean heavily on the Pace Projector (and elements such as the Pace Gauge and Volatility Rating), on occasion we are taking the liberty of going beyond the Pace Projections slightly in order to best reflect the exhaustive pace handicapping we do on these two extremely important race days. Human judgment will hopefully prove to be additive.
To get the full analysis for all 13 races e-mailed to you tonight:
>buy the TimeformUS Breeders’ Cup Package
Top 3 Projected Fastest Paces in the 2014 Breeders’ Cup
#1 BC Sprint (#12 Fast Anna in front, #13 Work All Week dueling after 1/4 mile)
Milkowski Ranking: #1 Fastest
Pace Gauge Rating: 12 (extremely fast)
Volatility Rating: 11 (moderate volatility)
Upgrade: Rich Tapestry beat two BC winners last out despite slow pace, should get lively one in this contest
Downgrade: Private Zone is very game, but will face huge pressure in here
-Secret Circle seeks to become only the second repeat winner of the Sprint, Midnight Lute being the other…both trained by Bob Baffert
-Wind Fire figures to be well off the early pace
#2 Breeders’ Cup Classic (#7 Bayern in front, #4 Moreno pressing the pace)
Milkowski Ranking: #2 Fastest
Pace Gauge Rating: 9 (fast)
Volatility Rating: 2 (low volatility)
Upgrade: Tonalist/Shared Belief are both very versatile and can adapt to any pace, both also improving each time out
Downgrade: Moreno and Bayern will have their chances compromised greatly by each other, even worse if Big Cazanova gets in off AE list
-Long run into first turn makes outside posts less harmful, but still not preferred
-Zivo and Candy Boy tied for best late speed rating in the race
#3 Breeders' Cup Mile
(Too many European invaders for a Pace Projector, but we believe #2 Obviously is going to go very fast early, just as he did in last year’s BC)
Milkowski Ranking: #3 Fastest (Fast)
Pace Gauge Rating: 5 (average)
Volatility Rating: 5 (low volatility)
Upgrade: Anodin’s late run should be enhanced by quick pace.
Downgrade: Seek Again reportedly (and visually) won’t run well outside horses; 12 post is a killer, needs lots and lots of luck to get an inside trip
-Obviously is as close to a cinch to lead the race early as a horse can be, and he never goes slowly
-Veda most likely shipper to be near the lead; Toronado prefers tracking position; Mustajeeb can stalk at times
To get the pace analysis for all 13 races e-mailed to you tonight:
>buy the TimeformUS Breeders’ Cup Package