By
J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
Anyone
that has ever played the trifecta or superfecta in the Kentucky Derby knows
that finding live longshots is the key to hitting those bets. With two
exceptions, every Kentucky Derby since 2001 has seen at least one horse at odds
of 20-1 or higher finish in the superfecta, and having more than one huge
longshot hit the board has not been uncommon.
As a
result, it can pay to think outside the box when handicapping the Derby in an
effort to uncover live longshots that can finish in the top four. Finding the
right ones isn't easy-they're longshots for a reason!-but it's always a fun and
challenging task that can pay off in a big way if you're right. Here are three longshots
that I feel have a chance to hit the board in the 2016 Kentucky Derby:
Majesto
Although
Majesto lost the first four starts of his career, he ran very well in three of
those races while holding his own against proven stakes horses like Destin and
Gettysburg. He finally broke his maiden in his fifth start, defeating the
next-out maiden winners Dig Deep and Street Gray (Dig Deep also won a stakes
race last week), and off that promising effort, Majesto was entered in the
Florida Derby, where finished a strong second behind the unbeaten champion
Nyquist.
Majesto's
Florida Derby effort was particularly noteworthy because while he did save
ground throughout the race, he did so while racing over by far the wettest part
of the track. Rain throughout the afternoon had left large puddles along the
rail at Gulfstream, but Majesto showed no hesitation sloshing through them, and
he stayed on gamely in the homestretch to finish just 3 ¼ lengths behind
Nyquist.
To
me, Majesto looks like a rapidly-improving colt that is heading into the
Kentucky Derby in great shape. He's already proved that he doesn't mind racing
inside of horses, a good asset in the Derby, and his pedigree-by Tiznow out of
the Unaccounted For mare Unacloud, the dam of 2013 Arkansas Derby (gr. I)
winner Overanalyze-suggests that Majesto will have no trouble with the distance
of the Derby. It's also worth noting that Majesto has already run three races
at nine furlongs, which is rare to see in a Derby contender. He may not win the
Derby, but I think Majesto has a strong chance to finish in the superfecta at
around 30-1.
Suddenbreakingnews
After
winning the Southwest Stakes (gr. III) by 2 ¾ lengths with a visually
spectacular late rally, Suddenbreakingnews had slightly troubled trips in the
Rebel Stakes (gr. II) and Arkansas Derby (gr. I), having to wait behind horses
in the former race and having to rally very wide in the latter. But with the
exception of the Rebel Stakes, he's never finished worse than second in any of
his races and has adapted to a wide variety of pace scenarios.
In
terms of pedigree, he's by Mineshaft-sire of 2010 Derby runner-up Ice Box-out
of a mare by Belmont Stakes winner Afleet Alex, who finished third in the 2005
Derby and sired the 2010 Travers Stakes winner Afleet Express. He seems to make
his move in the homestretch as opposed to the far turn, so the long homestretch
at Churchill should be to his liking. If the Derby pace is fast, expect to see
him gobbling up ground in the final furlong to contend for a spot in the
superfecta.
My Man Sam
He
had a somewhat difficult trip in the Blue Grass Stakes, getting a very wide
trip after starting from post fourteen, but despite rallying extremely wide at
the top of the stretch, he finished strongly in the final two furlongs to
finish second, beaten just 1 ¾ lengths by the talented Brody's Cause. As a deep
closer-as opposed to just a closer-My Man Sam hasn't really shown any early
speed at all, and much like Suddenbreakingnews, he does his best running in the
homestretch rather than on the far turn. But he's already achieved a lot for a
horse with just four starts under his belt, and one more step forward could put
him in the hunt for finishing in the superfecta.
Now
it's your turn! Which longshots do you like in the Kentucky Derby?
*****
To help simplify the process of choosing and keeping track of everyone's prime horse selections in our 2016 Road to the Kentucky Derby Handicapping Challenge, I would like to ask everyone to please submit their prime choice each week by leaving a special comment on the official blog page for the contest. This will greatly reduce the chances of any prime horse selections getting overlooked, and will also make it simpler to double-check the standings. Thanks, and enjoy the racing!
*****
J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, blogger, videographer, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite. He is the founder of the horse racing website http://www.theturfboard.com/.
