By
J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitte: @J_Keelerman
With
its $1,000,000 purse, the Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (gr. III) at Delta Downs
would be a major race even if it didn't have Kentucky Derby implications, but as
an official Kentucky Derby prep race--offering 10 qualification points to the
winner--the Jackpot has even more significance. Ten horses have been entered in
the 2016 edition of the 8.5-furlong race, an event that's shaping up to be very
competitive.
While
handicapping the Jackpot Stakes, I'm struck by the fact that there is a lack of
proven Grade 1 competitors entered in the race this year. In recent years, the
Jackpot has drawn horses like Exaggerator, Sunny Ridge, Mr. Z, and Goldencents,
all of which had placed in Grade 1 races prior to running in the Jackpot, and
Exaggerator and Mr. Z had both run well in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.
In
contrast, only three of the ten horses entered in this year's Jackpot Stakes
have so much as contested a graded stakes race, and only Gunnevera has run in a grade I, finishing fifth in the Breeders'
Futurity at Keeneland. As a result, this could be a good year to think outside
the box and look for a longshot winner.
One
horse that has caught my eye is Line
Judge, who has won his last three races by the combined margin of 12 ¾
lengths. After starting his career sprinting at Canterbury Park, he shipped to
Delta Downs and handled a mile just fine in the Jean $200,000 Lafitte Stakes,
winning by 3 ¾ lengths over the talented stakes winner Tip Tap Tapizar.
Horses
coming out of the Jean Lafitte have a good record in the Jackpot Stakes,
frequently hitting the board and occasionally winning, and proven form over the
"bullring" layout at Delta Downs is a positive. There's a lot of speed in the
Jackpot Stakes, which could potentially compromise Line Judge's front-running
style, but I believe Line Judge might be one of the truest speed horse in the
race, and if he can get clear from post position two and settle into a nice
rhythm, he could be tough to reel in.
Another
logical contender is Hot Sean, who
ships in from California for trainer Bob Baffert. After finishing a close
second in his debut at Del Mar, Hot Sean shipped to Santa Anita and won a 6
½-furlong maiden race by 1 ¾ lengths, then stretched out to a mile and won an
allowance race by 1 ¼ lengths after setting modest fractions of :24.09, :48.62,
and 1:12.78. At first glance, Hot Sean's final time of 1:38.48 seems very slow,
but the Santa Anita main track was not producing fast times that day, and Hot
Sean's time was by far the fastest recorded in the five one-mile dirt races on
the card.
On
the other hand, Bob Baffert has not yet won a race at Delta Downs and has sent
six horses to the Jackpot Stakes in the past, with only one finishing in the
trifecta. Hot Sean looks like a talented colt, but I wonder if this race might
be a little too deep for him.
J Boys Echo is a
recent maiden winner of note; after finishing a strong second sprinting in his
debut, he stretched out to 8.5 furlongs at Keeneland and crushed his rivals by
5 ½ lengths (VIDEO). However, the margin of victory doesn't begin to reveal how impress
J Boys Echo's performance actually was. After saving ground throughout the
race, J Boys Echo was full of run on the far turn, but was boxed in along the
rail with nowhere to run. He attempted to come out and split horses at the top
of the stretch, but was jostled severely and steadied hard, forcing him to move
toward the rail. Seizing an opportunity when the leader drifted off the fence,
J Boys Echo shot through the opening in the blink of an eye and pulled clear
powerfully to win with ease.
Visually,
this was a great performance, and the final time was good for a Beyer speed
figure of 75, which fits well in the Jackpot Stakes. The only concern is that J
Boys Echo is unproven at Delta Downs and has drawn post nine, which could lead
to a wide trip from off-the-pace in a race that tends to favor speed. Still, in
terms of talent and potential, J Boys Echo looks like a possible star with the
pedigree to be a major player on the Kentucky Derby trail.
One
wildcard runner is Our Stormin Norman,
who has run two excellent races sprinting on dirt and three disappointing races
going long on turf. The question is, were his turf efforts the result of the
surface, the distance, or a blend of both? In terms of pedigree, Our Stormin
Norman should be able to stretch out in distance, and he couldn't have been
much more dominant winning a seven-furlong maiden race on dirt at Keeneland
last month, taking command right at the start and setting fast fractions on his
way to a 2 ¼-length victory. Visually, he seemed to be in control of the race
from the start and was much the best, although he was under a hard ride
throughout most of the homestretch and gave the impression that he didn't have
a ton left in the tank. Perhaps the addition of blinkers last time out is
making a difference, but in a race filled with other speed horses, I'm not sure
he'll be able to take this field all the way on the front end.
I
actually find Our Stormin Norman's stablemate Thirstforlife to be a bit more intriguing. While his 11 ¼-length
defeat in the Iroquois Stakes (gr. III) suggests that the Jackpot Stakes could
be a tough spot for him, he was only beaten 2 ½ lengths for second by Lookin at
Lee, who returned to finish a solid fourth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Last
time out, Thirstforlife won an 8.5-furlong allowance race at Keeneland over a
good/sealed track, and while the final time of 1:46.07 was very slow, this was
mostly the result of a very slow pace--Thirstforlife posted fractions of :24.59,
:49.80, and 1:15.69. However, the result was that Thirstforlife accelerated his
fourth quarter-mile in :24.42 and the final sixteenth in a fantastic :05.96,
suggesting that he was far from tired and just getting going. Furthermore,
runner-up Just Move On returned to win a similar allowance race at Churchill
Downs by 2 ½ lengths, earning an 81 Beyer speed figure.
Florent
Geroux, who seems to ride well at tracks of any configuration, has the mount,
and I view this as a positive even though Geroux rarely rides at Delta Downs. From
post position three, Thirstforlife should be able to save ground on the tight
turns and hopefully settle a couple lengths off the pace before pouncing in the
final two furlongs. Trainer Mark Casse won this race in 2007 with Turf War and
sent out Tepin to win the 2013 Delta Downs Princess Stakes (gr. III), so we
know Casse has a proven record shipping to Delta Downs and coming away with big
wins. Throw in the fact that Thirstforlife kept good company earlier this year,
running against the likes of Silvertoni, Hey Mike, and Klimt, and I think you
can make a case that Thirstforlife has a big chance to win this race.
In a
very competitive race where eliminating anyone from consideration is a
challenge, I like three horses--Line
Judge, Thirstforlife, and J Boys Echo. If I have to pick one,
I'll side with J Boys Echo, who showed such determination overcoming trouble in
his maiden win. Jockey Kent Desormeaux won this race last year with
Exaggerator, who started from post nine, and if Desormeaux can work out a good
trip this year from that same post, I envision J Boys Echo triumphing in narrow
fashion, with Thirstforlife and Line Judge close behind.
Now
it's your turn! Who do you like in the Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes?
*****
J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, blogger, videographer, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite. He is the founder of the horse racing website www.theturfboard.com.
