By
J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
Good
luck separating the contenders in the $900,000 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park!
The 8.5-furlong race is the penultimate leg of Oaklawn's Kentucky Derby prep
race series, and with such a large purse, the Rebel has drawn a field of eleven
horses that look very competitive on paper.
The
horse to beat is surely American Anthem,
who ships in from California for trainer Bob Baffert, who has won six of the
last seven renewals of the Rebel. After winning his debut at Del Mar with a
late rally in the homestretch, getting up to win by a neck while sprinting six
furlongs, American Anthem stretched out to a mile and set the pace in the Sham
Stakes (gr. III), which he lost by a head to Gormley after a long battle.
American
Anthem has trained sharply since that race, posting three straight bullet
workouts at Santa Anita, and he gets into the Rebel Stakes with a light weight
assignment of just 115 pounds. By drawing outside some of the key front-runners,
jockey Mike Smith should be able to utilize American Anthem's blend of speed
and ability to rate in the best way possible, staying forwardly placed if the
pace is modest and settling a few lengths back if the pace is hot.
Suffice
to say, American Anthem should be very competitive and warrants inclusion on
all tickets, although his odds are unlikely to be appealing. Also, in terms of
Beyer speed figures, American Anthem doesn't have an edge over his main rivals,
which means there might be value to be found on some of the other contenders.
Royal Mo is another
California shipper that is bound to draw wagering support. Trained by John
Shirreffs, Royal Mo finished second in his first two starts before breaking
through with a maiden win going a mile at Del Mar. About two months later, he
won the February 4th Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. III) by 3 ½ lengths,
although he did get a great trip setting a slow pace while facing just four
rivals. In a race filled with speed, Royal Mo could be in for a wide trip from
post position ten, and as a graded stakes winner, he'll be carrying 122 pounds-seven
more than American Anthem. As a result, I believe Royal Mo could be vulnerable
on Saturday.
The
same goes for Untrapped, runner-up
in both the LeComte Stakes (gr. III) and the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) at Fair
Grounds. Both were solid efforts, but he benefited from quick fractions each
time while generally receiving nice trips. He figures to give a good account of
himself again, but I'm not sure he can take a big enough step forward to
compete for the win in this deep field.
Malagacy is
yet another well-regarded shipper, invading from Florida for trainer Todd
Pletcher. Malagacy has been breathtaking in his two starts to date, winning his
debut by 15 lengths and an allowance race by seven lengths, but those races were
held at distances of 5 ½ and 6 ½ furlongs-the Rebel Stakes will mark his
two-turn debut. While Malagacy certainly has the talent and speed to be a
contender, Pletcher has indicated in the past that he believes Malagacy might
be at his best as a sprinter. In a race filled with front-runners and speed
horses, this could be a tough spot for Malagacy to stretch out in distance, so I'm
leaning against him in the Rebel.
The
local runners are led by Petrov, who
has run well in Oaklawn's two previous Kentucky Derby prep races, finishing
second in both the Smarty Jones Stakes and Southwest Stakes (gr. III). His
performance in the latter race was particularly notable, as he tracked a quick
pace before finishing second behind One Liner, who is skipping the Rebel
Stakes. Although Petrov was beaten 3 ½ lengths by One Liner, he finished more
than eight lengths clear of the third-place finisher and received a 96 Beyer
speed figure, tied for the best figure earned by any horse in the Rebel field.
What I really like about Petrov is that he has the tactical speed to stay close
to a fast pace, but doesn't have to have the lead-in fact, he broke his maiden
by settling eight lengths behind a runaway front-runner and closing strongly in
the homestretch.
Like
American Anthem, Petrov gets into the Rebel Stakes carrying just 115 pounds,
and with a solid draw in post position four, he looms as perhaps the biggest
threat to American Anthem.
But
all of that said, I'm a little more intrigued by Uncontested, who defeated Petrov in the Smarty Jones Stakes before
finishing sixth in the Southwest Stakes, beaten 12 ¾ lengths. On paper, that
doesn't look like a very good effort, but I was intrigued by what I saw from
Uncontested that day. After setting fast fractions of :22.93, :46.55, and
1:10.98, Uncontested seemed to be full of run rounding the far turn and
appeared poised to dominate the race in
much the same way that he did in the Smarty Jones. But when Petrov challenged
turning for home, Uncontested gave way without a fight-he simply faded down the
homestretch while keeping his ears pricked, a sign that he wasn't giving his
best.
It
turns out that a breathing issue may have caused his sudden reversal of form,
but a couple of equipment changes-including the addition of a tongue tie-should
prevent the issue from occurring again. On March 10th, Uncontested
gave the equipment changes a try in a five-furlong workout and proceeded to
rocket through five furlongs in :58 4/5, a bullet workout that was
substantially sharper than Uncontested's pre-Southwest workout, when he went
four furlongs in a slow :51 flat.
All
signs suggest that Uncontested could be poised to rebound in a huge way this
Saturday, and after drawing post position two, he seems almost certain to
secure the early lead and the rail, setting him up to play "catch me if you
can." With 122 pounds on his back, holding off late runs from American Anthem
and Petrov could be a challenge, but his poor showing in the Southwest could potentially
make him an overlay in the wagering. If you want to add some value to your
tickets, Uncontested might be the horse to include.
Lookin At Lee and Silver Dust, who finished third and
fourth in the Southwest, are closers that will try to make an impact from off the
pace. Of the pair, I slightly prefer Lookin At Lee, who was coming off a 3 ½-month
layoff in the Southwest and dropped far back early on before rallying with
interest in the homestretch. With that race under his belt, he should be able
to take a step forward and maintain his advantage over Silver Dust, although
the latter's superior positional speed could give him an advantage if the pace
is slower than expected.
So
who do I like best in the Rebel Stakes? Since this is such a competitive race, allow
me to hedge a little bit. I view this race as a match between American Anthem and Petrov, somewhat reminiscent of the
close battle between Cupid (a Baffert shipper) and Whitmore (an Oaklawn local
trained by Ron Moquett) in the 2016 Rebel Stakes. But Uncontested is a wild card with the talent to pull off an upset if
he returns to his best form, and I personally like the sound of boxing American
Anthem, Petrov, and Uncontested in the exacta and/or trifecta, playing a few
extra tickets with American Anthem on top since he figures to be the favorite.
If I had to choose one to play on top, I would play it safe with American
Anthem, unless the odds difference between American Anthem and Uncontested is
too wide to ignore.
Now
it's your turn! Who do you like in the Rebel Stakes?
*****
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, blogger, videographer, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite. He is the founder of the horse racing website www.theturfboard.com.
