By
J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
Although
the first of the 100-point Kentucky Derby prep races was held last Saturday
(that being the UAE Derby in Dubai), the climax of the Kentucky Derby trail
begins this weekend with the $1 million Florida Derby (gr. I) at Gulfstream
Park and the $1 million Louisiana Derby (gr. II) at Fair Grounds. Both races
have drawn solid fields, though the more competitive race appears to be the
Louisiana Derby, which is where we'll focus our attention today.
Louisiana Derby (gr. II)
On
paper, this race looks like a rematch between the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II)
1-3-4 finishers Girvin, Local Hero, and Guest Suite. Girvin figures to start as the heavy favorite off his
professional and decisive performance in the Risen Star, in which he won by two
lengths to bring his record on dirt to a perfect 2-for-2.
While
this was a great run from a visual perspective, it should be noted that Girvin
received a perfect trip in the Risen Star, saving ground every step of the way
while rating behind a quick pace. Girvin does deserve credit for staying
completely relaxed while inside of horses and in slightly tight quarters early
on, but even with a pacemaker (Hotfoot)
entered to ensure another fast pace, it's hard to envision Girvin getting the
same perfect trip on Saturday. After breaking from the rail in the Risen Star,
Girvin has drawn post eight in the Louisiana Derby and could be in for a wider
trip.
For
these reasons, I'm going to take a shot with Local Hero to turn the tables. In the Risen Star, Local Hero was
urged out of the starting gate to beat several rivals to the lead, but this
early urging proved troublesome when Local Hero--now engaged and rolling on the
lead--refused to relax and settle down. After running the opening quarter-mile
in :23.70, Local Hero sped up significantly in the second quarter-mile, running
the fraction in :23.32 while opening up a six-length lead. That resulted in a
:47.02 half-mile fraction, a legitimately fast pace for Fair Grounds and one
that surely hampered his chances.
Despite
his early exertions, Local Hero led into the homestretch and battled on gamely
to finish third, beaten just 4 ¼ lengths. While there's always a chance that
Local Hero could run off again (especially with Hotfoot entered to ensure a
fast pace), I'm willing to bet on the possibility that Local Hero relaxes this
time and takes a big step forward. His workouts in preparation for the
Louisiana Derby have been sharp, including six furlongs in a quick 1:12 2/5 on
March 20th (he worked in company with Iron Fist), and Fair Grounds'
leading rider Florent Geroux has the mount once again. Local Hero is 7-2 on the
morning line, and I'd be happy with that price.
Guest Suite won
the LeComte Stakes (gr. III) at Fair Grounds two starts back before finishing
fourth in the Risen Star, a neck behind Local Hero. Compared to his Risen Star
conquerors, Guest Suite will be picking up less weight in the Louisiana Derby
(he'll carry two pounds more than he did in the Risen Star, compared to six
pounds more for Girvin and Local Hero), but I was slightly disappointed that
Guest Suite didn't produce a stronger rally in the Risen Star despite an ideal
pace setup.
On
the other hand, even though Guest Suite has been a closer in his last two
starts, he showed significantly more speed when triumphing in a one-mile
allowance race at Churchill Downs last November. Don't be surprised if Guest
Suite shows a bit more tactical speed in the Louisiana Derby, helping him to
get into the race earlier than he did in the Risen Star.
Todd
Pletcher has won this race three times and will send out Patch and Monaco in the
2017 renewal. The former is attracting most of the pre-race attention after
breaking his maiden going at mile at Gulfstream on February 18th,
but while he earned solid speed figures (an 89 Beyer and a 101 BRIS), I felt that
he took advantage of a perfect setup, tracking the pace over a speed-favoring
track before reeling in the longshot leader through a :26.52 final quarter.
With Pletcher's main jockeys riding in Florida on Saturday, Pletcher has
assigned the mount to Tyler Gaffalione, but Pletcher and Gaffalione have gone
0-for-8 together since the beginning of 2016.
I
actually find Monaco to be a bit
more intriguing. The son of Uncle Mo sold for $1.3 million as a two-year-old in
training, and while his career-best Beyer is just a 65, he has shown flashes of
talent in two races at Gulfstream Park this winter. On January 7th,
he finished second by a half-length in an 8.5-furlong maiden special weight
over a sealed track, despite appearing very unfocused throughout the race. He
seemed to be going nowhere when under urging on the far turn, but suddenly
found another gear in deep stretch and re-rallied despite running with his ears
straight up, suggesting that he wasn't giving everything he had.
Monaco
subsequently broke his maiden by 12 lengths on February 12th at
Tampa Bay Downs, and while the final time translated to a Beyer of just 58,
Monaco appeared to be very unfocused once again and seemed to win on sheer
superiority without giving anywhere near his best. Perhaps as a result, Monaco
will race with blinkers in the Louisiana Derby, an equipment change that I
believe could significantly improve his performance. Furthermore, on March 25th,
Monaco breezed a half-mile in company with the five-year-old graded stakes
winner Tommy Macho, going the distance in :49 1/5 while getting the better of
Tommy Macho during both the work and the gallop-out.
While
Monaco will obviously need to take a big step forward to factor in the
Louisiana Derby, I do believe he's better than his speed figures suggest, and
how often can you get 12-1 on a Pletcher runner in a major Derby prep race?
I
would also like to mention Senior
Investment, who has crossed the wire first in three straight races. Trained
by Kenny McPeek, the son of Discreetly Mine possesses a strong late rally,
which he showcased impressively on February 18th at Oaklawn Park,
when he exploded down the homestretch of an 8.5-furlong allowance race to win
by three lengths. Two starts back, he won a similar event going a mile at Fair
Grounds, and while he was disqualified to seventh for causing interference, he
still finished ahead of the talented colts It's Your Nickel, Society Beau, and
Resiliency, all of which came back to run improved Beyer speed figures.
Senior
Investment has also posted a serious of sharp workouts this month, with times
noticeably faster than his works earlier this year. I get the feeling that
Senior Investment is sitting on another step forward, and you can't deny that
he knows how to win. If the early pace gets heated, Senior Investment might be
the greatest danger from off the pace.
So
to recap, I have to take a chance with Local
Hero on top since his Risen Star effort was excellent given the fractions
that he set. If he is able to relax on Saturday, I think he'll respond with a
much-improved effort. Girvin warrants respect once again, but
his perfect-trip win in the Risen Star means that he could be an underlay in
the wagering, making Senior Investment
the most intriguing of the closers at 12-1. For anyone playing the superfecta,
I wouldn't count out Monaco, who
might be just as talented as his stablemate while offering much higher odds.
Now it's your turn!
Who do you like in the Louisiana Derby?
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, blogger, videographer, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite. He is the founder of the horse racing website www.theturfboard.com.
