By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
The recent announcement that the two-time Prix de l'Arc
de Triomphe (Fr-I) winner Enable will
travel to Churchill Downs to contest the Breeders' Cup Turf (gr. I) has caused
quite a stir among handicappers and racing fans.
Enable's brilliant form in Europe ensures that she'll
start as a heavy favorite in the Turf. With six Group 1 wins under her belt,
including back-to-back victories in Europe's most prestigious race, she might
well be the heaviest favorite in any of the fourteen Breeders' Cup races.
But if Enable is going to win the Turf, she'll have to
buck history. As many handicappers are already aware, no horse has ever managed
to win the Arc and the Turf in the same year, and several who have
attempted the feat ran quite poorly at short prices in the Breeders' Cup. Let's
face it—winning two huge 1 ½-mile turf races in the span of roughly a month, with a transatlantic journey in between, is no easy task.
However, I am of the opinion that Enable has the best
chance yet to complete the sweep, and here's why—her race record this season
bears absolutely no resemblance to the race records of previous Arc winners who
have contested the Breeders' Cup Turf.
Let's take a quick look back through history at the
failed attempts to complete the Arc/Turf double....
Dancing
Brave (1986): The Breeders' Cup Turf was his eighth start in
a campaign that started with a Group 3 victory in April. He competed in five
Group 1 races prior to the Breeders' Cup and finished fourth in the Turf,
beaten 6 ¾ lengths at odds of 0.50-1.
Trempolino
(1987): The Breeders' Cup Turf was his eighth start in a campaign
that started with a listed stakes victory in April. He competed in four Group 1
races prior to the Breeders' Cup and finished second in the Turf, beaten a
half-length at odds of 2.60-1.
Saumarez
(1990): The Breeders' Cup Turf was his eighth start in a campaign
that started with a maiden victory in April. He competed in three Group 1 races
prior to the Breeders' Cup and finished fifth in the Turf, beaten 11 lengths at
odds of 2.70-1.
Subotica
(1992): The Breeders' Cup Turf was his sixth start in a campaign
that started with a Group 1 victory in May. He competed in four Group 1 races
prior to the Breeders' Cup and finished fifth in the Turf, beaten 3 ½ lengths
at odds of 7.50-1.
Dylan
Thomas (2007: The Breeders' Cup Turf was his ninth start in
a campaign that started with victories in a listed stakes race and a Group 1, both in
April. He competed in seven Group 1 races prior to the Breeders' Cup and finished
fifth in the Turf, beaten 8 ½ lengths at odds of 0.90-1.
Golden
Horn (2015): The Breeders' Cup Turf was his eighth start
in a campaign that started with a listed stakes victory in April. He competed
in five Group 1 races prior to the Breeders' Cup and finished second in the
Turf, beaten a half-length at odds of 0.80-1.
Found
(2016): The Breeders' Cup Turf was her tenth start in a campaign
that started with a third-place finish in a listed stakes race in April. She competed
in seven Group 1 races prior to the Breeders' Cup and finished third in the
Turf, beaten four lengths at odds of 3.60-1.
The similarities between these seven horses are striking. They all got started early in the season, they all campaigned
heavily against top-class competition throughout the year, and they all peaked
with their career-defining victories in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe. By the
time they got to the Breeders' Cup Turf—which was likely an afterthought in
most cases, a secondary goal following the Arc—they were logical candidates to
regress at the end of their busy seasons.
In stark contrast, Enable has hardly run at all this
year, opening her season with an easy victory in the September Stakes (Eng-III)
over the all-weather track at Kempton on September 8th. One month
later, she forged to victory in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, seizing the lead
in the homestretch and holding off a late charge from Sea of Class to prevail
by a neck.
In other words, I think there's a strong chance that
Enable is still fresh and ready to deliver a big effort in the Breeders' Cup
Turf, and when you consider that she came down with a temperature in between the
September Stakes and the Arc—causing her to miss some training and enter the
Arc possibly a bit short of peak fitness—you can even make a case that she could be
better for the Breeders' Cup than she was for the Arc, which would be a scary
proposition for her rivals at Churchill Downs.
Actually, Enable's form this year is somewhat similar to
that of the 2001 Arc winner Sakhee, who opened his season with a victory in the
Steventon Stakes at Newbury in July before adding the Juddmonte International (Eng-I)
and the Arc to his record. No, he didn't come back to win the Breeders' Cup
Turf... but his abbreviated campaign was arguably a key factor in enabling him to
return just 20 days after the Arc and finish second by a nose in the Breeders'
Cup Classic (gr. I) on dirt.
Granted, Enable still has a couple of other question marks
to overcome. The transatlantic journey to the U.S. is an obstacle, and the
tight-turning turf course at Churchill Downs will be unfamiliar territory as
well.
But then again, those question marks are the same for
every European voyager, and that hasn't stopped the raiders from winning 15
of the last 19 editions of the Breeders' Cup Turf. Considering that Enable is
entering the Breeders' Cup a fresh filly making her third start off a long
layoff, I think she has the best chance to complete the Arc/Turf double of any horse to date.
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, blogger, videographer, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite. He is the founder of the horse racing website www.theturfboard.com.
