By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
Every winter, with the Road to the Kentucky Derby drawing
plenty of attention from racing fans and handicappers alike, there tends to be more talk
than usual about pedigrees—who's bred for dirt, who's bred for turf, who's bred
to run 1 ¼ miles on the first Saturday in May, etc.
Different handicappers have different views on the
importance of pedigree, and even those who agree on its significance often have
opposing ideas on how to study and interpret pedigrees. I don't really consider
myself a "pedigree handicapper" in the truest sense of the word—there are many
who have studied pedigrees more extensively than me—but I frequently put
pedigrees to use as a handicapping tool and have enjoyed enough success to know
that a solid working knowledge of pedigrees will pay for itself time and time
again.
So on a quiet weekend of racing action, I thought it
might be fun to share my typical process for analyzing pedigrees and
determining the most ideal distance or surface for a given horse. This is by no
means the only way to analyze a pedigree, but hopefully it will provide some
ideas to aid your own handicapping.
The first thing I do when analyzing the pedigree of an
unfamiliar horse is to check out the sire and the damsire, and in many cases,
this simplistic approach will be all you need to get a general idea for the
distance and surface preferences of the horse in question. A runner sired by
two-time Horse of the Year Curlin (a multiple Grade 1 winner going 1 ¼ miles)
out of a mare by 1992 Belmont Stakes winner A.P. Indy (a renowned source of
stamina) is most likely destined to excel running long on dirt. In contrast, a
horse sired by Kitten's Joy (the leading sire of grass horses in North America)
out of a mare by turf champion Theatrical will in all likelihood be destined
for a career on turf.
Follow racing closely enough for long enough and you'll
pick up this working knowledge of top sires almost by accident, though if you
find yourself unfamiliar with the race record and progeny records of a given
stallion, you have a couple of easy options for conducting research. Looking up
the horse on Equibase.com will provide you with data on their racing career,
while a search through the Bloodhorse.com online stallion register (provided
the stallion is still active) will reveal plenty of information about their top
progeny. Under "Tools and Resources" I like to click the "Download PDF" option;
this provides a fast snapshot of the stallion's best runners and the races they
have won.
If a stallion is young and has not yet sired any foals of
racing age, it can also be useful to research his own sire using the same
techniques, particularly if the young stallion was lightly-raced and didn't
show a clear preference for a particular distance or racing surface.
If I'm conducting a deeper pedigree analysis (as I often
do with Kentucky Derby contenders), that's when I start researching the dam as
well. Typically, this will require a bit more work since many well-bred, but
relatively unaccomplished race mares will be given a chance in the breeding
shed and it's impossible to be familiar with the race and produce records of
them all.
I usually begin by looking up the dam's race record (if
indeed I don't know it off the top of my head) to see if she showed a clear
preference for a particular distance or racing surface. A mare who frequently
won going a mile or farther strikes me as a candidate for imparting stamina to
her foals, particularly if she herself is stoutly-bred with a stamina-oriented
pedigree. However, I don't get too concerned if a mare of low racing class
never won beyond a sprint distance, since the majority of races in North
America are sprints and it's hard to know if her perceived distance limitations
were more the result of a lack of opportunity to run long at her class level.
Or perhaps she had a physical issue that made running long difficult regardless
of whether she was genetically bred for it.
Once I'm done researching the dam's race record, I'll
turn to examining the records of her foals. A free and thorough (though
slightly time-consuming) approach is to type the dam's name into the Dam's Foal
Search page on Equibase, leaving the year of birth blank. This will bring up
all the foals produced by that mare (and possibly other mares who share the
same name, though it's usually easy to identify the foals you're looking for
based on their years of birth.)
Go ahead and examine the race record of each horse,
looking as always for signs of distance and surface preferences. Again, if
you're looking at low-class runners, don't be too concerned if they were
sprinters since a lack of opportunities or physical issues might have prevented
them from showcasing their genetic capabilities over longer distances. A
distinct preference for dirt or turf might be more meaningful, though be sure
to keep in mind the sires of the horses you're researching—a mare might well
produce a long-distance grass runner when bred to Kitten's Joy, but a dirt
sprinter when bred to Speightstown.
However, if the dam in question has produced multiple
foals that were successful running a mile or farther—particularly against
high-class company—then I definitely take notice. Remember Better Than Honour,
who produced the back-to-back Belmont Stakes winner Jazil (2006) and Rags to
Riches (2007)? Clearly she was imparting serious stamina to her foals, which is
why it was no surprise to see her son Man of Iron win the 2009 Breeders' Cup
Marathon going 1 ¾ miles.
However, this is as far as I tend to go with my pedigree
handicapping. Some people like to dive deeper and examine the third, fourth, or
fifth generations in the pedigree, sometimes with special emphasis on sire
lines and dam lines, but I personally believe that reasonably accurate
conclusions can be drawn based on the first two generations of the pedigree, plus the progeny
and produce records of the sire and dam. If I were to dig any deeper, I'd risk
overemphasizing pedigrees in my handicapping, rather than using pedigree
analysis as one tool out of many.
And besides—in the event that a horse completely defies
their pedigree, you're going to see the on-track evidence soon enough anyway,
at which point their pedigree becomes irrelevant!
Walking Thunder Impresses in Dubai
Did you happen to catch the breathtaking victory by Walking Thunder in the UAE 2,000 Guineas Trial earlier today? A Florida-bred son of Violence out of the Street Boss mare Street Show, Walking Thunder tracked a solid pace, seized command on the turn, and powered clear with complete authority to win by nine lengths. Walking Thunder is now unbeaten in three starts, and while it would surely be a big ask for him to win the Kentucky Derby (gr. I), he's certainly emerged as Dubai's leading candidate for the 2019 Run for the Roses.
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The Road to the Kentucky Derby handicapping challenge is back for the fifth straight year! Check out the Road to the Kentucky Derby contest page for more details.
J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, blogger, videographer, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite. He is the founder of the horse racing website www.theturfboard.com.
