By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
In analyzing the field for Saturday's $1.25 million Travers Stakes (gr. I) at
Saratoga, I'm struck not only by the lack of division leaders entered in this 1
¼-mile race, but also by the extraordinary lack of speed horses in the mix.
The three classic winners of 2019—Country House, War of
Will, and Sir Winston—are all skipping the Travers for one reason or another,
along with the disqualified Kentucky Derby winner Maximum Security and the
reigning champion two-year-old Game Winner. The runners who remain are a mixed
bag of classic-placed veterans and potentially promising up-and-comers, but
there isn't a single Grade 1 winner among the dozen entrants.
Nor are there many speed horses in the field. At least
half of the runners could be considered deep closers, and none of the others have
done their best running on the front end. Only #7 Mucho Gusto and #9
Looking At Bikinis have shown any frequent interest in setting the pace,
yet their career-best performances were achieved by rallying from off the pace
in small fields.
Breaking down the Travers entrants into four categories
based on running style, here's how the race seems to be shaping up:
Closers
#1 Owendale
#2 Code of Honor
#3 Highest Honors
#4 Laughing Fox
#5 Everfast
#6 Tacitus
Mid-Pack
#8 Chess Chief
#10 Scars Are Cool
#11 Endorsed
Stalkers
#7 Mucho Gusto (potential front-runner)
#12 Tax
Front-Runners
#9 Looking At Bikinis
With the few speed horses drawn in the outer half of the
field, there could potentially be a bit of a rush to the first turn as runners
like Looking At Bikinis and #12 Tax attempt
to clear the field and save ground. But even if this occurs, the pace should
settle down around the turn, and Mucho Gusto could wind up sitting a perfect
stalking trip.
Mucho Gusto's Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert needs no
introduction. Since 2016, the California-based conditioner has compiled at
9-for-17 record at Saratoga, which includes victories in the 2016 and 2017
Travers Stakes with Arrogate and West Coast. When Baffert ships a horse to
Sararoga, it's wise to sit up and take notice.
A consistent runner who has yet to miss the trifecta in
eight starts, Mucho Gusto has generally given the impression of being a
sprinter/miler more than a classic route runner. But as a son of Mucho Macho
Man out of a Giant's Causeway mare, Mucho Gusto is bred to run long and improve
with maturity, so it's possible he just hasn't grown up yet. Certainly his form
has been improving this summer, culminating with a runner-up effort behind
Maximum Security in the Haskell Invitational (gr. I) at Monmouth Park.
Mucho Gusto's Haskell performance was noteworthy for a
few races. For one, he gave Maximum Security a stiff challenge, rallying wide
to reach even terms before ultimately settling for second place by just one length.
For another, Mucho Gusto ran fast in defeat, leaving the rest of the field
eight lengths behind while posting a 100 Beyer speed figure. He's the only
horse in the Travers field to have cracked the triple-digit Beyer barrier.
Originally, Mucho Gusto was expected to bypass the
Travers and target next month's Pennsylvania Derby (gr. I) at Parx. But
following a blazing Monday morning workout at Del Mar, in which Mucho Gusto
clocked five furlongs in a bullet :59 1/5, Baffert elected to ship the colt to
Saratoga instead, which strikes me as a confident move. Considering Mucho Gusto's
pedigree, and his career-best Haskell effort against division leader Maximum
Security, I suspect he's still improving and sitting on a big effort this
Saturday.
Yes, the 1 ¼-mile distance is still a question mark.
Mucho Gusto has weakened in both his races over 1 1/8 miles, so adding another furlong
could potentially stretch the limits of his stamina. But if he sits a dream
trip in the Travers, setting or stalking a slow pace, he'll have every
opportunity to carry his speed farther than usual. At 6-1 on the morning line,
Mucho Gusto strikes me as the most appealing play in the Travers Stakes.
For second place, I respect the 5-2 morning line favorite
#6 Tacitus. Winner of the Tampa Bay
Derby (gr. II) and Wood Memorial (gr. II) during Kentucky Derby prep season,
Tacitus endured a series of tough trips in his three subsequent defeats. A wide
trip compromised his chances in the Belmont Stakes (gr. I), where he came up a
length short against the ground-saving winner Sir Winston. Even worse, Tacitus
stumbled badly at the start of the Jim Dandy Stakes (gr. II) and had to wait in
traffic at a key moment on the far turn, two factors that contributed to his narrow
runner-up finish behind Tax.
The Jim Dandy featured a slow early pace, to the extent
that RacingFlow.com assigned the race a Closer Favorbility Ratio (CFR) of "3"
on their 1-to-100 scale, signifying a notably speed-favoring race. I would
seriously consider picking Tacitus on top if not for three factors—one, he
might get another poor pace setup in the Travers. Two, he'll be a shorter price
than I'm willing to accept in the win pool. And three, he'll be racing with
blinkers for the first time in the Travers. Perhaps the equipment change will
sharpen his focus, but I'm concerned that the blinkers will instead key him up
too much to excel over the 1 ¼-mile distance of the Travers.
You can make a case for just about any other horse to hit
the board in the Travers, so I'm tempted to use 30-1 shot #10 Scars Are Cool underneath. Trained by Stanley Hough, the son of
Malibu Moon was tons the best in a 1 1/8-mile maiden special weight at Saratoga
on July 21, rallying strongly under a vigorous hand ride to win going away by
four lengths.
Scars Are Cool's performance was all the more impressive
since he was carried extremely wide coming off the far turn, but shrugged off
the incident to mow down the leaders. The 92 Beyer he posted might be a little
light, but Scars Are Cool has improved with every start, and even a small step
forward should be enough to land him in the Travers Stakes superfecta. He does
have enough tactical speed to stay engaged if the early pace is slow.
Selections:
First: #7 Mucho Gusto
Second: #6 Tacitus
Third: #10 Scars Are Cool
Now it's your turn! Who do you like in the Travers
Stakes?
*****
Want to test your handicapping skills against fellow Unlocking Winners readers? Check out the Unlocking Winners contests page—there's a new challenge every week!
*****
J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, blogger, videographer, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite. He is the founder of the horse racing website www.theturfboard.com.
