By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
When a handful of lightly-raced juveniles head to the Del
Mar starting gate for Saturday's $100,00
Bob Hope Stakes (G3) at Del Mar, racing fans and handicappers will widely
expect trainer Bob Baffert to saddle the winner.
The Hall of Fame conditioner has won the seven-furlong
sprint on nine occasions, including three times since 2015 and five times since
2011. When entries were drawn on Wednesday, Baffert entered two colts in search
of his tenth Bob Hope victory: #3
Thousand Words and #5 High Velocity,
with the former looming as the favorite.
However, the Daily
Racing Form has reported that Thousand Words will scratch from the Bob Hope
to await other targets, leaving High Velocity as Baffert's lone representative.
This could lead to a potentially lucrative wagering opportunity, because High
Velocity—though promising—might not be the best horse in the Bob Hope field.
Purchased for $350,000 as a yearling, High Velocity debuted
in a 5 ½-furlong maiden sprint on October 13 at Santa Anita. After breaking
quickly from the starting gate, the son of Quality Road tracked fractions of :22.27
and :45.76, took the lead in the final furlong, and pulled away late to defeat
pace-setting Prince Magician by 2 ¼ lengths.
It was a solid debut, but High Velocity and Prince
Magician were the only colts to do much running in the five-horse field. High
Velocity's winning time of 1:04.60 translated to a modest 81 Beyer speed
figure, and it's worth noting he was guided to victory by apprentice jockey
J.C. Diaz, Jr., meaning High Velocity carried seven pounds less than his rivals.
On Saturday, High Velocity will stretch out in distance
while facing a couple of speedy rivals in #2
Howbeit and #6 Strongconstitution,
both hailing from the barn of Doug O'Neill. Howbeit has won two straight,
including a six-furlong allowance race at Santa Anita, but Strongconstitution
is likely the greater threat.
A debut winner sprinting five furlongs on grass at Del Mar,
Strongconstitution ran a big race in the 6 ½-furlong Sunny Slope Stakes at
Santa Anita last month, battling along the inside to finish just a neck behind his
stakes-winning stablemate Fore Left. Strongconstitution's effort produced an 82
Beyer, so he's already fast enough to compete with High Velocity.
But reaching the 80 Beyer threshold isn't an imposing
task for promising juveniles, which suggests it wouldn't take much for a
longshot to step up and vie for victory in the Bob Hope. And in my opinion, #1 Rager might be poised to take just such a leap
forward.
Conditioned by Andrew Lerner, an up-and-coming California
conditioner winning at a 25% rate this season, Rager is a well-bred son of
leading sire Into Mischief out of a Distorted Humor mare. The colt debuted in a
5 ½-furlong turf sprint on October 20 at Santa Anita, where bettors disregarded
him at odds of 19-1.
But despite running an unusual race, Rager displayed a
lot of talent and potential. He seemed a bit uncomfortable racing inside
runners at various points in the race; possibly the footing wasn't his
favorite. He dropped back suddenly on the far turn and appeared to be on his
way to an unplaced finish, but jockey Martin Garcia persevered in the stretch,
pointing Rager to the rail when a large opening appeared.
As soon as Garcia went to the whip, Rager found a new
gear and suddenly burst clear of his rivals. His margin of victory was just
three-quarters of a length, but Rager gained 3 ½ lengths in the final furlong
and was merely hand-ridden late in the race. He was much more dominant than his
bare margin of victory implies.
For the Bob Hope, Rager will switch to the main track at Del
Mar, an appealing shift since his breeding suggests he'll be best on dirt. Just
as significantly, Lerner wins at a 35% rate with runners transitioning from
turf to dirt.
All signs suggest Rager is sitting on an improved
performance this Saturday, making him an appealing alternative to the
favorites. He's 12-1 on the morning line, and while his odds figure to drop
with the scratch of Thousand Words, if you can get 6-1 on this promising colt,
I'd jump at the opportunity.
Now it's your turn! Who do you like in the Bob Hope
Stakes?
*****
Want to test your handicapping skills against fellow Unlocking Winners readers? Check out the Unlocking Winners contests page—there's a new challenge every week!
*****
J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, blogger, videographer, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite. He is the founder of the horse racing website www.theturfboard.com.
