By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
The extended 2019-20 Road to
the Kentucky Derby continues its path through uncharted waters with the running
of Saratoga's historic $1 million
Travers (G1) on Saturday.
The 1 1/4-mile "Midsummer
Derby" has attracted a strong field as usual, with heralded Kentucky Derby
contenders Tiz the Law and Uncle Chuck leading the charge. Let's take a
horse-by-horse look at the entries:
#1 First Line: You
have to admire the grit this son of First Samurai displayed breaking his maiden
going 1 1/8 miles at Saratoga on July 29—he won by a neck after a prolonged
stretch battle, with the rest of the field more than four lengths behind.
Trainer Orlando Noda has been ultra-hot at Saratoga, going 5-for-14 (36%) so
far, but First Line is taking a huge step up in class and will need to improve
upon the 85 Beyer he posted last week.
#2 Country Grammer: Improving
son of Belmont Stakes (G1) winner Tonalist raced professionally to win the 1
1/8-mile Peter Pan (G3) on opening day at Saratoga, rating inside and behind
runners early on before rallying up the rail to win by a neck with a
career-best 96 Beyer. Saratoga's leading jockey Irad Ortiz stays aboard, and stretching
out over 1 1/4 miles shouldn't be an issue. The only question is whether
Country Grammer has the class to hold his own against this level of
competition.
#3 Uncle Chuck: A
half-mile in :47 3/5. Six furlongs in 1:13 2/5. Six furlongs in 1:12 1/5. Five
furlongs in 1:00 1/5. Uncle Chuck has been training up a storm since his
runaway victory in the 1 1/8-mile Los Alamitos Derby (G3), in which he beat
next-out Shared Belief (G3) winner Thousand Words by four lengths. A lightly-raced
son of Uncle Mo, Uncle Chuck could be any kind for Hall of Fame trainer Bob
Baffert, who the Travers in 2016 and 2017 with the similarly late-maturing
champions Arrogate and West Coast. With his blend of tactical speed and
finishing power, Uncle Chuck should work out a clean trip and relish stretching
out over 1 1/4 miles in the Travers.
#4 Max Player: One-dimensional
late runner has been effective racing 1 1/8 miles, winning the Withers (G3) by
daylight before returning from a 4 1/2-month layoff to finish third behind Tiz
the Law in the Belmont Stakes (G1). This son of champion Honor Code has been
improving steadily, but has shown a hesitation to race in traffic and figures
to pursue a wide journey in the Travers, giving up valuable ground to his
rivals.
#5 Shivaree: Speedy
sprinter stretched his speed sufficiently to finish second behind Tiz the Law
in the 1 1/8-mile Florida Derby (G1), but his two runs since then have been
less inspiring—a third-place effort in a 1-mile allowance race at Gulfstream
and an 11th-place finish in the Blue Grass (G2). This durable chestnut is
clearly talented and will be a pace player in the Travers, but he's never won
running farther than 7 furlongs and may lack the stamina to stay 1 1/4 miles.
#6 Tiz the Law: Three-time
Grade 1 winner is clearly the class of the Travers field after rolling to a
decisive 3 3/4-length victory in the Belmont Stakes (G1). With a pair of 100
Beyers under his belt, Tiz the Law is the fastest horse in the Travers field,
and he's been training as sharply as ever in preparation for Saturday's 1
1/4-mile test of speed and stamina. The Travers has been a long-term goal for
Tiz the Law's connections, and there's no reason to think this talented son of
Constitution won't fire a big shot exactly one year to the day that he dominated
his debut at Saratoga.
If there's one knock against
Tiz the Law, it's the fact he's yet to face any of the best 3-year-olds from
California, and the key rivals he's beaten this season—Ete Indien, Shivaree,
and Dr Post—have experienced mixed results in their subsequent races. But this
is more of a quibble than a genuine downside to Tiz the Law's glowing resume,
especially when you consider how easily he's been winning this season.
#7 Caracaro: I
was impressed by Caracaro's runner-up
effort in the Peter Pan (G3). In his first start off a six-month layoff,
Caracaro raced wider than Country Grammer, battled to the front in the
homestretch, and was ultimately beaten just a neck after being bumped off
stride late in the race. A repeat of this effort would make Caracaro a
contender to hit the board on Saturday, but could this son of Uncle Mo be a
candidate for regression while wheeling back just 23 days after a hard comeback
race?
#8 South Bend: The
2019 Street Sense Stakes winner fired off a career-best 94 Beyer when rallying
to finish second in the Ohio Derby (G3), which marked a return to dirt
following five efforts against stakes company on turf. But South Bend benefited
from a quick pace in the Ohio Derby and will face much tougher competition in
the Travers while making his first start for trainer Bill Mott. A fast pace
would help the chances of this late-running youngster, but overall the waters
look pretty deep.
Conclusions
For win purposes, I view the
Travers as a two-horse battle between Tiz the Law and Uncle Chuck. I believe
there's a 95% chance one or the other will reach the winner's circle, with Tiz
the Law looming as a slightly more likely winner than Uncle Chuck.
But this doesn't mean I'm
keen to bet Tiz the Law in the Travers. If I believe Tiz the Law has a 50%
chance of winning, and Uncle Chuck a 45% chance, then I'll absolutely be siding
with Uncle Chuck based on their morning line odds. I have Tiz the Law pegged as
fair value at 1-1 (equal to his morning line price) while Uncle Chuck is worth
playing at 6-5—considerably lower than his enticing 5-2 morning line odds.
So assuming the final odds don't
shift in a dramatically different direction, I'll ride the Baffert bandwagon and
play Uncle Chuck over Tiz the Law, with Country Grammer to round out the
trifecta.
Now it's your turn! Who do
you like in the Travers?
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite. He is the founder of the horse racing website www.theturfboard.com.
