By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
No fewer than 10 Grade 1
races are taking place in North America this weekend, four weeks before the
Breeders' Cup. Some of the best horses in training are slated to compete, and
the race I'm most excited to see is the $600,000 Breeders' Futurity (G1) on
Saturday at Keeneland.
The field for this 1
1/16-mile contest has come up remarkably strong. It's basically an early
preview of the Nov. 4 Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1). Three of the nine entrants
have already won stakes, while another has placed at the Grade 1 level and four
others are exiting promising maiden victories. I believe there's a strong
chance the Breeders' Futurity will produce the Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner
for the third time in four years.
That belief stems from my confidence
that #9 Locked (7-5) is a beast in
the making. The Todd Pletcher trainee has shown tremendous potential in two
starts, so even though the Breeders' Futurity field has come up deep, I expect
Locked to deliver an impressive victory.
The son of Gun Runner
debuted on Aug. 5 in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Saratoga and
arguably turned in the best performance while finished third. Locked broke just
a little slowly from post four and wound up getting shut off between rivals;
after steadying and losing ground, he found himself racing last in a field of ten,
11 1/2 lengths behind an opening quarter-mile in :22.56.
The early leaders weren't
much in the mood for tiring that day. Pacesetter Ozone weakened to finish
fourth, but the pace-tracking duo of Just Steel and Be You battled on down the
homestretch to finish a nose apart in first and second.
The only horse to gain any meaningful
ground was Locked. Despite his troubled start, the chestnut colt advanced
steadily to take third place. He gained three lengths through the final furlong
alone to finish 3 1/2 lengths behind Just Steel, and he pulled 6 1/2 lengths
clear of Ozone.
Locked figured to be formidable
when stretching out over one mile for a Sept. 1 maiden special weight at
Saratoga, but few bettors could have predicted just how strongly he would run.
Despite getting involved in some bumping at the start, Locked showed improved
early speed pressing fractions of :23.96 and :47.72 from second place.
And then Locked took over.
By running his third quarter-mile in approximately :24.26, Locked stormed away
around the far turn and opened up a 4 1/2-length lead with a quarter-mile
remaining. This early move did absolutely nothing to tire Locked, who accelerated
his final two furlongs in :11.99 and :11.95 to draw off and dominate by 7 1/4
lengths in the fast time of 1:36.00. Runner-up Drum Roll Please pulled 13
lengths clear of the rest.
Any way you slice it, this
was a freakish debut. When was the last time you saw a juvenile run the final
two furlongs of a one-mile dirt race in less than 12 seconds apiece? The
comparison that comes to mind is Locked's sire, Gun Runner, who posted closing
splits of approximately :11.58 and :12.26 when he won his debut racing one mile
at Churchill Downs. But Gun Runner chased a slower early pace than Locked
(:24.16, :48.71, and 1:13.66), and even still his final furlong was slower than
12 seconds.
Gun Runner, of course, went
on to win half a dozen Grade 1 races and 2017 Horse of the Year honors while
earning nearly $16 million. Could Locked possibly be destined for similar
success? Only time will tell, but the Saratoga timer tells us Locked might be a
superstar in the making. I'm optimistic the Breeders' Futurity will mark the
first of many Grade 1 wins for Locked.
Now... what about the Breeders'
Futurity minor awards? We haven't even touched on the other talented horses in
the entries.
The two that interest me
most are #3 Awesome Road (3-1) and #1 The Wine Steward (8-1). Awesome Road
was a flashy debut winner sprinting six furlongs at Ellis Park, vying for early
command before edging clear in the final furlong to beat Stronghold by 2 3/4
lengths. That performance was flattered when Stronghold came back to win a
one-mile maiden special weight at Churchill Downs last Sunday.
As for The Wine Steward, he's
undefeated in three starts sprinting, including a pair of stakes. The New
York-bred colt dominated the Bashford Manor S. at Ells Park by 2 3/4 lengths,
then squared off against fellow New York-breds in Saratoga's Funny Cide S. and overcame
a stumbling start to beat next-out stakes winner El Grande O by a head.
As a son of long-winded
champion and Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) winner Vino Rosso, The Wine Steward has
the pedigree to shine while stretching out over 1 1/16 miles. I don't think we've
seen his best yet, and a top-three finish at enticing odds isn't out of the
question.
#2 Timberlake (7-2)
is another viable contender; the Hopeful (G1) runner-up beat future Iroquois
(G3) winner #5 West Saratoga (20-1)
by 9 1/4 lengths in a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Ellis Park during
the summer. And we can't dismiss #6
Generous Tipper (15-1), a 7 1/2-length maiden winner racing one mile at
Ellis last time out. Generous Tipper is conditioned by three-time Breeders'
Futurity-winning trainer Kenny McPeek, who not infrequently sends out live
contenders in this race.
Selections
1st: Locked
2nd: Awesome Road
3rd: The Wine Steward
Now it's your turn! Who do
you like in the Breeders' Futurity?
*****
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
