By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
More often than not, the
$100,000 Bob Hope S. (G3) at Del Mar is a straightforward race to handicap.
Because more often than not, the seven-furlong dirt dash for juveniles is won
by a short-priced Bob Baffert trainee.
Let's crunch some numbers.
Since 1996, Baffert has won the Bob Hope a dozen times, including eight
editions since 2011. Baffert often saddles multiple horses in the Bob Hope, but
identifying the best one isn't typically difficult—nine of Baffert's winners
started as the favorite and two others were the second betting choice behind
horses not trained by Baffert.
Saturday's renewal of the
Bob Hope attracted a trio of Baffert trainees: #2 Mission Beach, #3 Wine Me
Up, and #5 Nysos. The first two are
dropping in class out of Grade 1 races, and that's appealing. But seven of
Baffert's last nine Bob Hope winners were last-out maiden winners stepping into
the stakes ranks for the first time, which is the profile Nysos brings to the
table.
A son of 2016 Kentucky Derby
(G1) winner Nyquist, Nysos sold for $550,000 as a two-year-old in training and
outran expectations when debuting in a six-furlong maiden special weight at
Santa Anita last month. Starting as the 6-1 fourth choice against a promising field
containing two other Baffert-trained first-time starters, Nysos dueled for
command through intense fractions of :21.62 and :44.19 before pulling away
decisively to dominate by 10 1/2 lengths.
Despite sprinting hard
early, Nysos managed to run his final two furlongs in the solid times of :12.37
and :12.41 to record a blazing final time of 1:08.97. Suffice to say, his
performance was rated strongly on the speed figures scales—Nysos earned a 96
Beyer Speed Figure and a 102 Brisnet Speed rating, and in both cases those are
the highest numbers belonging to any horse in the Bob Hope field. In fact, none
of his rivals have come close to posting numbers like those.
Nysos wore blinkers in his
debut but will drop them for his second start, which is a powerful angle for
Baffert. Indeed, Baffert has previously employed this strategy with Triple Crown
winners American Pharoah and Justify plus Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) winners
Arrogate and Bayern, champion West Coast, Preakness (G1) winner National
Treasure, and a bevy of other Grade 1 winners.
Throw in the fact Nysos is
picking up hot jockey Flavien Prat (6-for-18, 33% to start the Del Mar meet),
and what's not to like? The bay colt appears to be sitting on another winning
run, and I'm confident he'll deliver victory in the Bob Hope.
As for the other Baffert
trainees, Wine Me Up is exiting an eighth-place finish in the Breeders' Cup
Juvenile (G1), in which he tracked the early pace before fading steadily. The
stoutly bred son of Vino Rosso had previously wired a six-furlong maiden
special weight at Del Mar before finishing a pacesetting second in the 1
1/16-mile American Pharoah (G1) behind Muth, who came back to finish second in
the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.
The fact Wine Me Up has
placed at the Grade 1 level is bound to draw some betting support, but his
pedigree suggests he'll improve with maturity and shine running long. I'm not
sure he has the speed to keep up with Nysos while cutting back to seven
furlongs, which could leave Wine Me Up vulnerable even while dropping in class.
I find Mission Beach to be
more appealing in this spot. The son of Curlin showed tractability in his debut
sprinting six furlongs at Del Mar, pressing the pace before taking over to win
by 1 1/4 lengths. He subsequently got caught up in a destructive speed duel in
the seven-furlong Hopeful (G1) at Saratoga, but led past the eighth pole and
was beaten only five lengths while settling for fifth place at the wire.
Mission Beach finished best of the pacesetters, and Timberlake—who finished
second after sticking fairly close to the early tempo—flattered the form by
returning to win the Champagne (G1).
If Mission Beach shows a
little more patience in the Bob Hope and avoids hooking up with Nysos and
gate-to-wire Santa Anita maiden winner #1
Tejon Pass in a battle for early supremacy, I think we'll see him bounce
back with a strong run and record a top-three finish under high-percentage
jockey Juan Hernandez, a 33% winner teaming up with Baffert over the last two
months per Brisnet statistics.
The other runner who
interests me for trifecta purposes is #4
Stronghold, a Kentucky shipper with encouraging form lines. The Phil D'Amato
trainee debuted in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Ellis Park and
rallied to finish second behind Awesome Road, a promising Brad Cox trainee with
the potential to make some noise on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.
Stronghold then stretched
out for a one-mile maiden special weight at Churchill Downs and rallied from
fourth place to win the one-turn contest by 1 1/2 lengths. I'm optimistic sprinting
seven furlongs will suit Stronghold just fine, and fast workouts at Santa Anita
and Del Mar suggest he's sitting on a strong showing. If a fast pace unfolds
(and it should), Stronghold can pick up the pieces and possibly snatch a spot
in the exacta.
Selections
1st: Nysos
2nd: Stronghold
3rd: Mission Beach
Now it's your turn! Who do
you like in the Bob Hope?
*****
Want to test your handicapping skills against fellow Unlocking Winners readers? Check out the Unlocking Winners contest page—there's a new challenge every week! (Please note: older contest entries can be found here.)
J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
