By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
The Road to the Kentucky
Derby continues on Saturday with the running of the $150,000 Jerome S. at
Aqueduct. Contested over a one-turn mile, the Jerome awards Kentucky Derby
qualification points to the top five finishers on a 10-5-3-2-1 basis.
That means every horse in
the Jerome field will receive at least one Kentucky Derby qualification point,
because only five horses have entered. And among the five, I'm confident #1 Drum Roll Please will take home top
honors.
Despite the small field, the
Jerome is packed with speed. For example:
-
#2 Khanate broke
his maiden by 10 1/2 lengths in a seven-furlong maiden special weight at
Keeneland, in which he settled less than one length behind an opening
quarter-mile in :22.14 before taking over through half a mile in :45.72.
Furthermore, Khanate has dueled for the lead in two of his other three starts.
-
#3 Sweet Soddy J has
earned his strongest Brisnet Speed ratings when racing on the front end. He
posted a 91 when wiring the seven-furlong Heft S. at Laurel Park by six lengths
and a 90 when employing dueling tactics to finish fourth in the six-furlong James
F. Lewis III S. over the same track.
-
#4 El Grande O is
the field's fastest entrant from a Brisnet Speed rating perspective, peaking
with a 99 when wiring the seven-furlong Bertram F. Bongard S. at Aqueduct. He's
set the pace in five of his last seven starts and enters off a gate-to-wire
victory in the Sleepy Hollow S. racing one mile at Aqueduct.
-
#5 Regalo hasn't
settled more than half a length off the early lead in any of his three starts.
In a 1 1/16-mile $62,500 allowance optional claimer at Laurel Park last month,
he vied for the lead for six furlongs before taking over to win by 4 1/2 lengths.
All of this speed figures to
suit Drum Roll Please just fine. Not that Drum Roll Please is lacking in speed
himself; when he broke his maiden in a one-mile maiden special weight at
Aqueduct, he was never more than three-quarters of a length behind splits of
:22.79 and :45.36. He actually took over the lead through six furlongs in a
strong 1:10.15.
But Drum Roll Please is
perfectly comfortable closing from farther behind. During the summer, in a
one-mile maiden special weight at Saratoga, he tracked a modest pace from third
place before finishing fast (final quarter-mile in approximately :24 2/5) to run
second behind Locked, who returned to win the Breeders' Futurity (G1) and finish
third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1).
Drum Roll Please arguably
ran even better in the 1 1/8-mile Remsen (G2) at Aqueduct last month. Racing
over a muddy track that played strongly in favor of speed horses all day long, Drum
Roll Please spent the first six furlongs racing in seventh place, as many as 5
1/2 lengths off the lead. Despite occupying an unfavorable position, Drum Roll
Please unleashed a strong rally around the far turn and early in the
homestretch, advancing to third place by one length. He flattened out in the
final furlong to finish 4 3/4 lengths behind the top pair, but held third place
by a clear margin.
Assuming the track plays
fairly for the Jerome, Drum Roll Please figures to settle behind the speed
horses and launch a winning rally in the homestretch. The fact he broke his maiden
over this track and distance adds to the appeal. Keeping in mind how trainer
Brad Cox has been winning Road to the Kentucky Derby prep races in bunches over
the past few years, Drum Roll Please is a compelling choice to win the Jerome.
For second place, I'm keen
to support El Grande O, a three-time stakes winner who rarely runs a bad race.
He did falter in his first Road to the Kentucky Derby foray, finishing a distant
sixth in the Champagne (G1), but that effort came against a deep field and he
actually finished ahead of next-out Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) winner
Fierceness, who similarly misfired while finishing seventh.
El Grande O has spent much
of his career competing against fellow New York-breds, but the New York-bred
juveniles were a tough bunch last year. In the six-furlong Funny Cide S. at
Saratoga, El Grande O finished second by a head against The Wine Steward, who
returned to finish second by half a length against Locked in the Breeders'
Futurity.
I suspect one mile might be
a little farther than El Grande O wants to run, but I believe his talent will
allow him to outlast the other Jerome speed horses and secure the runner-up
spot behind Drum Roll Please.
Now it's your turn! Who do
you like in the Jerome?
*****
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
