By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
The Road to the Kentucky
Derby continues on Saturday with the $200,000 Lecomte S. (G3) at Fair Grounds,
a 1 1/16-mile qualifier worth 20-10-6-4-2 points to the top five finishers.
Eight horses have entered
the Lecomte, and it's shaping up as a rematch of last month's $100,000 Gun
Runner S., which likewise took place over 1 1/16 miles at Fair Grounds. The
odds-on favorite to win the Gun Runner was #2
Nash (5-2), a Godolphin homebred fresh off a 10 1/4-length maiden victory
racing 1 1/16 miles at Churchill Downs. But Nash ran below his best in the Gun
Runner and settled for third place behind #7
Track Phantom (7-5), the morning line favorite to win the Lecomte.
Part of me wants to make a
case for Nash to turn the tables, and there's potentially a path to that
outcome—more on that in a moment. But Track Phantom ran such a strong race in
the Gun Runner, I'm inclined to believe he's the better horse at the moment.
After all, the Gun Runner
unfolded with an eye-catching early speed duel that should have compromised
Track Phantom. Breaking from the outside post in a field of seven, Track
Phantom broke running, but hooked up with the rail-drawn longshot #1 Next Level (30-1) in a battle for
early supremacy. The two pace rivals opened up five lengths on the rest of the
field through an opening quarter-mile in :23.61, and they actually accelerated
during the second quarter-mile, clocking the distance in :23.32 to record half
a mile in :46.93.
It would have been
understandable to see the two colts tire after their early exertions, and
indeed, Next Level faded to finish last by 32 1/4 lengths. But Track Phantom
continued on, turning back a mid-race challenge from Nash and a homestretch bid
from deep-closing Snead to prevail by 1 1/4 lengths.
Now, there are things to
like about Nash's performance. He gained 2 3/4 lengths on the leaders through
that swift second quarter, running the distance in approximately :22.86. And he
continued to gain ground through the third quarter-mile, advancing to second
place by one length at that juncture. But he ultimately failed to sustain his
bid, weakening down the homestretch to finish third by three lengths.
Looking at the Lecomte
entries, the race figures to unfold in a much different manner than the Gun
Runner. Next Level is slated to scratch, which ought to have two effects. One,
it should allow Track Phantom to escape with easier fractions up front than he
did in the Gun Runner. Two, it should allow Nash to secure a more forwardly
placed position in the early going. When Nash broke his maiden, he led all the
way through modest fractions, and after his disappointing run in the Gun Runner
I have to think he'll be more aggressive this Saturday.
If my interpretation is
correct, I believe Nash will run an improved race in the Lecomte. But I still have
to side with Track Phantom to maintain his edge. The pace setup of the Gun
Runner should have favored Nash at the expense of Track Phantom, yet Track
Phantom turned back his favored rival to win comfortably in the end. For this
reason, I'm concluding Track Phantom has the speed to emerge victorious from a head-to-head
battle with Nash.
The one big wildcard in the
Lecomte is #4 Can Group (6-1), a
turf horse who beat a quality field in the Bourbon S. (G2) last fall before
finishing fourth by two lengths against an international field in the Breeders'
Cup Juvenile Turf (G1). There's clearly talent here, but will Can Group bring
his A-game while switching to dirt?
It's not out of the
question. Can Group started his career with a pair of third-place finishes
sprinting against maiden special weight competition at Ellis Park. In one of
those contests, Can Group was beaten by Timberlake and West Saratoga, who
respectively went on to win the Champagne S. (G1) and Iroquois S. (G3).
Can Group has improved since
stretching out in distance and boast a reasonably dirt-oriented pedigree; his
half-sister Flat Out Speed even won the Iowa Oaks (G3) on dirt. While I'm
picking Track Phantom to win the Lecomte, I wouldn't want to play a multi-race
wager without including Can Group in some capacity.
Selections
1st: Track Phantom
2nd: Nash
3rd: Can Group
Now it's your turn! Who do
you like in the Lecomte?
*****
Want to test your handicapping skills against fellow Unlocking Winners readers? Check out the Unlocking Winners contest page—there's a new challenge every week! (Please note: older contest entries can be found here.)
*****
The Unlocking Winners Road to the Kentucky Derby Handicapping Challenge is back! Check out the special contest page to play along.
J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
