By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
The final weekend in January
is highlighted by the $3 million Pegasus World Cup (G1) and $1 million Pegasus
World Cup Turf (G1) at Gulfstream Park.
Let's handicap both races:
Pegasus World Cup (G1)
The eighth running of the
Pegasus World Cup is tricky to analyze. Five of the first seven editions were
won by horses exiting victories at the Breeders' Cup, including Breeders' Cup Dirt
Mile (G1) winners City of Light (2019), Knicks Go (2021), and Life Is Good
(2022).
But this year's Pegasus
World Cup has come up a bit lighter than past editions. There aren't any
Breeders' Cup winners in the field. Morning line favorite #7 National Treasure (9-5) came close, finishing second by a nose
in the 2023 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile, but can we trust him to deliver a peak
performance this Saturday? We know National Treasure has talent—he won the
Preakness (G1) last spring—but consistency has been a struggle. He missed the
trifecta in all three of his starts between the Preakness and Dirt Mile, and he's
done his best work when able to secure an uncontested lead.
National Treasure seems
unlikely to secure an easy lead in the Pegasus since #4 Hoist the Gold (12-1), winner of the Phoenix (G2) sprinting six
furlongs, is also in the field. Hoist the Gold recently rode a strong speed-favoring
track to a gate-to-wire victory in the Cigar Mile H. (G2), and after posting a
series of fast workouts at Fair Grounds, I have to think Hoist the Gold will pursue
the early lead while stretching out around two turns. He's been part of six straight
races with sub-:45 half-mile fractions and has the speed to make things
difficult for National Treasure.
So who are the alternatives?
Part of me wants to side with #6 Senor
Buscador (20-1), who rallied from last place to finish second in the Cigar
Mile, 4 1/2 lengths behind Hoist the Gold. The biased track played against
Senor Buscador, and many of the horses who rallied against the grain of that
speed-favoring surface have come back to win. But the bias aside, Senor Buscador
was aided to some extent by the fast early/slow late race shape of the Cigar
Mile, as the first half-mile elapsed in :44.88 and the second-half mile went in
:49.40. Looking back through the rest of Senor Buscador's past performances, he
tends to be a "pick up the pieces" type, so I'm thinking he's more likely to
rally and grab a minor award than take top honors in the Pegasus.
That's why I've ultimately
settled on #8 First Mission (7-2) as
my top choice. The Brad Cox trainee did little wrong in five starts as a
three-year-old last year, most notably beating future Woody Stephens (G1) winner
Arabian Lion and Travers (G1) runner-up Disarm in the 1 1/16-mile Lexington
(G3) at Keeneland.
Since returning in the fall
from an injury-induced layoff, First Mission has been slowly rounding back into
peak form. He overcame traffic to rally and win his comeback in a 1 1/16-mile
$80,000 allowance optional claimer at Keeneland, after which he ran deceptively
well to lose the Clark (G2) by a nose to older rival and fellow Pegasus entrant
#5 Trademark (15-1).
In the Clark, First Mission
broke from post two, and to avoid getting buried in traffic he came out running
and uncharacteristically wound up dueling for the lead. He was hounded for six
furlongs by longshot Film Star, and when First Mission put that rival away he
was quickly confronted by the rallying Trademark. The latter held the lead at
the sixteenth pole, but First Mission refused to yield and was actually
battling back at the wire.
First Mission has since
turned in a series of sharp workouts at Fair Grounds, including a couple of
bullet five-furlong breezes. I'm confident he'll move forward in his third
start off the layoff, especially if he reverts to the stalking tactics he
employed in his first three route races. That should be straightforward since
First Mission is breaking from post eight with Hoist the Gold and National
Treasure to his inside. I picture First Mission settling behind the early
leaders before rallying around the far turn and down the homestretch to secure
his first Grade 1 win.
Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1)
A deep field has assembled for
the 1 1/8-mile Pegasus World Cup Turf, with European raider #9 Warm Heart (9-5) the morning line
favorite. The four-year-old daughter of Galileo finished second by a neck in
last year's Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1) and ended the year with a
respectable third-place finish against males in the Hong Kong Vase (G1).
But Warm Heart has done her
best work racing 1 1/2 miles, the distance over which she won the Yorkshire
Oaks (G1) and Prix Vermeille (G1) last summer. In the 1 1/4-mile Breeders' Cup
Filly & Mare Turf, she stayed within striking range of a decent pace and
led close to home, but didn't have enough acceleration to out-kick the speedier
Inspiral, who unleashed a terrific turn-of-foot to rally from ninth place at
the eighth pole to first place at the wire.
In other words, I'm
concerned Warm Heart is more of a galloping grinder who will find 1 1/8 miles
around two turns at Gulfstream to be sharper than she can handle.
Instead, I'll back the
undefeated #3 Integration (3-1), who
looks to me like a superstar in the making. After smashing his debut racing 1
1/16 miles at Colonial Downs, Integration stretched out over 1 1/8 miles for
Colonial's Virginia Derby (G2) and unleashed a sharp turn-of-foot to beat Saratoga
Derby (G1) and Hollywood Derby (G1) winner Program Trading by 1 1/4 lengths,
with next-out Bryan Station (G3) winner Runaway Storm another 2 1/4 lengths
back in third place.
That was an impressive
performance, but Integration elevated his game to a new level when wrapping up
2023 in the 1 1/8-mile Hill Prince (G3) at Aqueduct. After settling in third
place, as many as eight lengths behind a pair of runaway leaders, Integration
gobbled up ground and blazed his final furlong in an epic :10.85 to dominate by
five lengths in 1:47.06.
Integration's brilliant acceleration
should serve him well racing 1 1/8 miles in the Pegasus World Cup Turf, giving
him the edge he needs to out-kick Warm Heart and spring a mild surprise.
Now it's your turn! Who do
you like in the Pegasus World Cup and Pegasus World Cup Turf?
*****
Want to test your handicapping skills against fellow Unlocking Winners readers? Check out the Unlocking Winners contest page—there's a new challenge every week! (Please note: older contest entries can be found here.)
*****
The Unlocking Winners Road to the Kentucky Derby Handicapping Challenge is back! Check out the special contest page to play along.
J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
