By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
The first Saturday in
February is a big one on the 2023-24 Road to the Kentucky Derby. Four
qualifiers are taking place across the country, and a couple of possible
superstar three-year-olds are making their seasonal debuts.
We'll follow the stars and
focus our attention on the $250,000 Holy Bull S. (G3) at Gulfstream Park and
the $200,000 Robert B. Lewis S. (G3) at Santa Anita:
Holy Bull S. (G3)
In the past, I've played
against short-priced horses kicking off their sophomore season in the 1
1/16-mile Holy Bull. Since 2012, accomplished juveniles like Hansen, Shanghai
Bobby, Classic Empire, Enticed, Frosted, Maximus Mischief, and Mo Donegal have
all fallen to defeat at odds of 2-1 or less. Hansen, Shanghai Bobby, and
Classic Empire were reigning champion two-year-olds, and even they couldn't
deliver victory.
But despite this history of
Holy Bull surprises, I can't oppose heavy favorite #7 Fierceness in the 2024 Holy Bull. True, he was beaten as an
odds-on favorite in the Champagne S. (G1) at Aqueduct last fall, finishing
seventh over a sloppy track. But Fierceness sandwiched that defeat between two
stellar victories that stamp him as hands-down the horse to beat at Gulfstream.
Fierceness was spectacular
in his debut sprinting six furlongs at Saratoga, leading all the way over a
muddy track to defeat four future winners (including a trio of next-out
winners) by 11 1/4 lengths. And when given a chance to rebound from his
Champagne disappointment in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) at Santa Anita, Fierceness
pressed the pace before drawing off to beat a deep field by 6 1/4 lengths. The
runner-up, Muth, had previously won the American Pharoah S. (G1) and came back
to nab the San Vicente S. (G2).
When Fierceness broke his
maiden, he earned a 101 Brisnet Speed rating. When he romped in the Breeders'
Cup Juvenile, he improved to a 112. None of his Holy Bull rivals have earned a
number higher than 98, and Fierceness holds a similar advantage on the Beyer Speed
Figure scale. If Fierceness brings his A-game to the Holy Bull—and based off
his sharp workouts, there's no reason to think he won't—his rivals are almost
certainly running for second place.
Speaking of second place,
who will complete the exacta? Two contenders interest me. #1 Hades is undefeated in two starts against easier competition at
Gulfstream, most notably trouncing a seven-furlong allowance for Florida-breds
by eight lengths with a 98 Brisnet Speed rating. Stepping up in class and
distance are meaningful question marks, but Hades clearly has talent and may
prove dangerous if he makes the lead from the rail draw.
#3 Otello is
the only stakes winner in the field aside from Fierceness, and his half-length
triumph in the one-mile Mucho Macho Man S. at Gulfstream was deceptively
strong. Otello had to wait in traffic around the turn and early in the
homestretch, and once he found racing room he accelerated nicely. I'd argue
Otello would have won by much more with a clean trip, so the son of Curlin has
upside for improvement in the Holy Bull. I'll give him the slightest edge over
Hades in the battle for second place.
Selections:
1st: Fierceness
2nd: Otello
3rd: Hades
Robert B. Lewis S. (G3)
Hall of Fame trainer Bob
Baffert has won the Robert B. Lewis a record 11 times, including the last five
editions in a row. He can keep his winning streak alive with #6 Nysos, who is undefeated and
unchallenged in two starts.
Nysos was tons the best in
his debut sprinting six furlongs at Santa Anita, leading all the way to
dominate by 10 1/2 lengths with an eye-catching 102 Brisnet Speed rating.
Setting fractions of :21.62 and :44.19 did little to tire the son of Kentucky
Derby (G1) winner Nyquist, who ran his final quarter-mile in :24.78 to record a
strong final time of 1:08.97.
Nysos was arguably even more
impressive in the seven-furlong Bob Hope S. (G3). Showing a new dimension in a
four-horse field, Nysos settled two lengths off the early tempo in last place
before launching an easy rally to beat next-out Los Alamitos Futurity (G2)
runner-up #7 Stronghold by 8 3/4
lengths in 1:21.71, earning another 102 Brisnet Speed rating.
Stretching out over one mile
shouldn't be an issue for Nysos, who has the pedigree to thrive racing around
two turns. With his speed, finishing power, and tractability, he's a formidable
and possibly unbeatable favorite.
For second place, I'll side
with #5 Coach Prime, a Baffert
trainee who broke his maiden by 7 1/4 lengths before finishing third by one
length in the Los Alamitos Futurity. In the latter contest, Coach Prime came
home half a length behind Stronghold, but it's important to note Stronghold
saved ground every step of the way while Coach Prime raced wide.
Coach Pride put up a good
fight down the Los Alamitos homestretch and is dropping blinkers for the Robert
B. Lewis, which opens the door for improvement. He's also picking up
internationally acclaimed jockey Frankie Dettori, who guided Baffert's Newgate
to win the 2023 Robert B. Lewis, so I'm optimistic Coach Prime can work out the
trip he needs to turn the tables on Stronghold and complete the exacta behind
Nysos.
Selections
1st: Nysos
2nd: Coach Prime
3rd: Stronghold
Now it's your turn! Who do
you like in this week's Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifiers?
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
