By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
A pair of prominent Road to
the Kentucky Derby qualifiers will take place this weekend: the $400,000 Risen
Star (G2) at Fair Grounds and the $400,000 Sunland Park Derby (G3) at Sunland
Park.
Let's take a look at both
races:
Risen Star (G2)
As usual, the 1 1/8-mile
Risen Star is absolutely loaded with talent. High-profile juveniles of 2023,
including Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) 1-2 finishers #3 Honor Marie and #6 Real
Men Violin, Remsen (G2) runner-up #4
Sierra Leone, and Street Sense (G3) second-place finisher #5 Moonlight are slated to make their
three-year-old debuts.
Among those four, I strongly
prefer Sierra Leone. The Chad Brown trainee debuted in a one-mile maiden
special weight at Aqueduct and stormed home from off the pace to win by 1 1/4
lengths over Change of Command, who returned to win his next two starts. Then
Sierra Leone stepped up in class for Aqueduct's 1 1/8-mile Remsen on the Road
to the Kentucky Derby, in which he rallied boldly from last place over a
strongly speed-favoring track to finish second by a nose.
Any way you slice it, Sierra
Leone's Remsen effort was strong. He pulled 4 3/4 lengths clear of third-place
finisher Drum Roll Please, who returned to dominate the Jerome S. The winner of
the Remsen, Dornoch, led essentially all the way over the biased track, so on a
fair surface Sierra Leone might have won convincingly.
All that said, there are a
couple reasons why Sierra Leone might not be the most likely winner of the Risen
Star. Over the past 15 years (encompassing 16 editions of the Risen Star), only
one horse-future Horse of the Year Gun Runner-has managed to win the Risen Star
in his first run of the season. Furthermore, this isn't the first time Brown
has saddled a narrowly beaten Remsen runner-up to start his sophomore season in
the Risen Star. Brown did the same with Normandy Invasion in 2013 and Zandon in
2022; they finished fifth and third before improving to finish second in the
Wood Memorial (G1) and first in the Blue Grass (G1), respectively.
In other words, there's a
history of Brown using the Risen Star as a starting point for accomplished
juveniles with Kentucky Derby aspirations. However Sierra Leone performs on
Saturday-and I do think he'll run well-I expect him to improve in his second
run of the season, and perhaps again in the Kentucky Derby.
That's why, in the Risen
Star, I'm going to back #11 Track
Phantom, who has rattled off three straight victories for Hall of Fame
trainer Steve Asmussen. The speedy colt survived a duel to win the 1 1/16-mile
Gun Runner S. by 1 1/4 lengths, and he followed up with a gate-to-wire 2
3/4-length score in the 1 1/16-mile Lecomte (G3).
The Lecomte is by far the
most productive prep for the Risen Star, and since the majority of Track Phantom's
key Risen Star rivals are stretch runners, I'm confident his speed (and fitness
advantage) will win the day.
#8 Catching Freedom,
a deep-closing winner of the Smarty Jones S. at Oaklawn Park, and #7 Hall of Fame, a runaway maiden
winner at Fair Grounds, are other logical contenders. Hall of Fame in
particular is bound to attract attention after recording a faster winning time
in his maiden score than Track Phantom posted in the Lecomte on the same card,
though Hall of Fame's contest unfolded at a much faster early pace, which made recording
a strong winning time easier.
Selections:
1st: Track Phantom
2nd: Sierra Leone
3rd: Catching Freedom
Sunland Park Derby (G3)
Eight horses have assembled
for the Sunland Park Derby, which has been shortened this year from 1 1/8 miles
to 1 1/16 miles. There are several talented runners in the entries, but in my
opinion #5 Stronghold (5-2) is a
standout.
Stronghold has shown strong
form right from the start. He debuted in a six-furlong maiden special weight at
Ellis Park and finished second behind Awesome Road, the fourth-place finisher
from the Southwest (G3) two weeks ago. Then he stretched out for a one-mile
maiden special weight at Churchill Downs, where he scored by 1 1/2 lengths over
a field containing the above-mentioned Lecomte (G3) and Gun Runner S. winner
Track Phantom.
Stronghold has continued his
ascent even while stepping up against graded stakes competition. In the
seven-furlong Bob Hop (G3) at Del Mar, he ran second behind Nysos, an unbeaten
colt who subsequently obliterated the Robert B. Lewis (G3). And in the 1
1/16-mile Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) at Los Alamitos, Stronghold battled gamely
to finish second by half a length.
Four starts, four strong
performances at four different tracks. Southern California shippers have
enjoyed plenty of success in the Sunland Park Derby, and Stronghold should be
tough to deny while taking his talents to Sunland Park. It helps that he owns
by far the highest Brisnet Speed rating in Sunday's field.
Second place looks like a
battle between #4 Lucky Jeremy (4-1),
a Churchill Downs maiden winner who took the one-mile Riley Allison Derby at
Sunland last month, and Informed Patriot
(3-1), a Steve Asmussen trainee who has finished third in the Street Sense
(G3) and Smarty Jones S. on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. I'll narrowly favor
Informed Patriot, partly because Asmussen has won the Sunland Park Derby twice.
Selections
1st: Stronghold
2nd: Informed Patriot
3rd: Lucky Jeremy
Now it's your turn! Who do
you like in the Risen Star and Sunland Park Derby?
*****
Want to test your handicapping skills against fellow Unlocking Winners readers? Check out the Unlocking Winners contest page—there's a new challenge every week! (Please note: older contest entries can be found here.)
*****
The Unlocking Winners Road to the Kentucky Derby Handicapping Challenge is back! Check out the special contest page to play along.
J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
