By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman
Saturday is a big day of
racing at Riyadh in Saudi Arabia. A bevy of competitive group stakes are on the
agenda, and they've attracted competitive international fields.
We'll focus our attention on
two of the most interesting events: the Saudi Cup (G1) and the Saudi Derby
(G3).
Saudi Cup (G1)
The $20 million Saudi Cup
has drawn a stellar field for its fifth edition. Grade 1 winners from around
the globe will face off over 1,800 meters (about 1 1/8 miles) in a battle for
the richest horse race in the world.
The expected favorite is #14 White Abarrio, winner of the 2022
Florida Derby (G1) and a participant in that year's Kentucky Derby (G1). He's
always shown talent, but elevated his game to a new level during the second
half of 2023. Under the care of trainer Rick Dutrow, White Abarrio trounced a
strong field by 6 1/4 lengths in the 1 1/8-mile Whitney (G1), counting future
Horse of the Year Cody's Wish among his beaten rivals. Then he tackled the 1
1/4-mile Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) and employed pace-tracking tactics to
prevail by one length.
But Breeders' Cup Classic
runner-up #4 Derma Sotogake is back
for a rematch and may be capable of turning the tables. The talented
Japanese-bred colt rose to prominence in the 2023 UAE Derby (G2), winning by 5
1/2 lengths in a fast time suggesting he could have beaten older horses in the
Dubai World Cup (G1) on the same afternoon.
Derma Sotogake didn't get
the best trip when finishing sixth in the 2023 Kentucky Derby (G1), and he
entered the Breeders' Cup Classic off a six-month layoff due to missing a
scheduled prep race. But despite the less-than-ideal circumstances, he stalked
the pace from fourth place and gained two lengths on White Abarrio through the
final furlong to finish second.
Derma Sotogake already has
experience at Riyadh, finishing third in the 2023 Saudi Derby, and I believe
he'll receive a favorable pace setup in his return to Saudi Arabia. White
Abarrio isn't the only speed horse in the field; gate-to-wire Preakness (G1)
winner #9 National Treasure is a
serious pace player who survived a duel to win the Pegasus World Cup (G1) last
month, and last year's Pennsylvania Derby (G1) hero #11 Saudi Crown is a pure speedster who kicked off 2024 with a
gate-to-wire win in the Louisiana (G3).
American horses haven't had
the best luck so far in the Saudi Cup, with multiple Grade 1 winners like
Knicks Go, Charlatan, Taiba, Country Grammer, Mandaloun, and Art Collector falling
to defeat over the unfamiliar sand/clay/ wood chip surface at Riyadh. If White
Abarrio, National Treasure, and Saudi Crown head out too fast in the early
going, I believe they'll hand a perfect setup to Derma Sotogake, who can follow
in the footsteps of Panthalassa (2023) to become the second Japan-based winner
of the Saudi Cup.
Saudi Derby (G3)
Derma Sotogake isn't the
only Japanese horse I expect to see in the Riyadh winner's circle this
Saturday. Japanese raiders have won two of the first four editions of the
1,600-meter (about one-mile) Saudi Derby, and #6 Forever Young looks ready to make that three out of five.
Forever Young is undefeated
in three starts for trainer Yoshito Yahagi, who conditioned Panthalassa to win
last year's Saudi Cup. Most recently, Forever Young smashed the 1,600-meter
Zen-Nippon Nisai Yushun at Kawasaki Racecourse in Japan by seven lengths.
The Zen-Nippon Nisai Yushun
is a Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifier and Japan's most important race
for two-year-old dirt horses; in 2022 the race was won in narrow fashion by
Derma Sotogake.
You can argue Forever Young is
further along at this point than Derma Sotogake was last year, so the future
looks brought for this talented Triple Crown nominee. I'm expecting a big
effort from Forever Young in his sophomore debut, with even better to come down
the road.
Some bettors might opt to
support #5 Book'em Danno, one of two
American challengers in the Saudi Derby field. Certainly Book'em Danno was
eye-catching when trouncing Iroquois (G3) winner West Saratoga by 12 1/2
lengths in the seven-furlong Pasco S. at Tampa Bay Downs last month. But
Book'em Danno is 4-for-4 sprinting and 0-for-1 running long, suffering his lone
defeat when second in the one-mile Nashua S. at Aqueduct. I wonder if the Saudi
Cup distance will prove a furlong too far for Book'em Danno, leaving a runner-up
finish more likely.
Now it's your turn! Who do
you like in the Saudi Cup and Saudi Derby?
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as "Keelerman") is a writer, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A great fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager to be the greatest racehorse ever produced in America, but counts Zenyatta as his all-time favorite.
